The 2024 Presidential Election as of May 1st, 2024
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 พ.ค. 2024
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Election Predictions 2024 | Election Night 2024 | 2024 Governor Senate Races | 2024 Midterms Elections | 2024 Predictions | 2024 Polls | Election Polls 2024 | 2020 Election Data for 2024 | Democrats 2024 Strategies | National Polling Data 2024 | Donald Trump 2024 Campaign | Joe Biden 2024 Campaign | 2024 Presidential Election | How Democrats Can Win in 2024 | How Republicans Can Win in 2024 | Mitch McConnell 2024 Strategies | Chuck Schumer 2024 Strategies | Nancy Pelosi 2024 Role | AOC in 2024 | Kevin McCarthy 2024 Role | Will Democrats win in 2024 | 2024 Senate Predictions | 2024 Election Strategies | 2024 Electoral Map | 2024 Races and Candidates | 2024 Election Projections | Can Democrats win the Senate in 2024? | Will Democrats win midterms 2024 | 2024 Senate Elections | 2024 Midterm Elections | Will Democrats Win Midterms 2024? | Will Republicans Lose in 2024? | Will Republicans win in 2024? | Will Republicans Lose Seats in 2024? | 2024 Midterm Predictions | Will Democrats Take the House in 2024? | Will Republicans Retain the House in 2024? | Why are Democrats losing in the Polls for 2024? | Democrats Republicans Future in 2024 | Donald Trump 2024 Impact | Kamala Harris 2024 Campaign | 2024 Democratic Wave Possibility | Democrats' Chances in 2024 | Democratic Convention 2024 | Donald Trump Wins or Loses 2024 | Impeachment Impact on 2024 | Democrats Win 2024 Scenarios | Republicans Win 2024 Scenarios | Joe Biden Wins or Loses 2024 | Who Will Win 2024? | Jo Jorgensen 2024 Campaign | Howie Hawkins 2024 Campaign | Third Party Impact in 2024 | Election Polls 2024 | Polling Data 2024 | 2020 Election Data Analysis for 2024 | Winning Senate Strategies 2024 | Senate Majority Battle 2024 | House Majority Battle 2024 | Governorship Races 2024 | Kamala Harris 2024 Role | Harris for President 2024 | Mike Pence 2024 Speculations | Vice President Kamala Harris 2024 Role | Pence 2024 Campaign | FiveThirtyEight 2024 Predictions | Fox News 2024 Coverage | MSNBC 2024 Coverage | CNN 2024 Coverage | NBC 2024 Coverage | Nikki Haley 2024 Speculations | Ron DeSantis 2024 Speculations | Will Republicans Win in 2024? | Red Wave or Blue Wave in 2024 | Red Tsunami or Blue Tsunami in 2024 | Nancy Pelosi House Speaker Role in 2024 | COVID-19 Impact on 2024 Politics | Mask Mandates and 2024 Politics | Kevin McCarthy House Speaker Role in 2024 | Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader Role in 2024 | Chuck Schumer Senate Majority Leader Role in 2024.
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The fact that it will even be close is very telling. It legitimately terrifies me that almost half of this country wants a full fledged fascist in the oval office.
"The left does it too!" -Every single person I ask in my red state 😢
I won't be voting for Biden, but I don't support Trump. Choosing not to vote for either of the nominees doesn't equate to choosing one of them. That wouldn't make sense.
@@AtticusThingsyou basically
Voting for trump
@@AtticusThingsit's conceding your power, voting isn't a moral decision, it's an exertion of one of your only forms of power, if you had to choose between the two viable candidates, which would you choose, because it ultimately does influence things, it does matter.
@@4sjdiwodnxnot technically but let's say their politics are much more sinialer to say Biden, than it's a withholding of a vote for Biden which benefits trump, vice versa.
This election is going to be a nightmare
Don't you believe it. We fired trump in 2020, no way he gets rehired again, not after Jan 6th. Also, MI is NOT going red. Biden won MI in 2020 by 150,000 votes. Biden will not lose that many to trump. Just not gonna happen.
I think the closer we get the more clear it will get
The polls in '22 didn't predict the GOP would do as badly as they did.
@@Omni0404 I what I think they're getting wrong, new voters. Young voters will disproportionately break blue because young women vote, young men, not so much. The women want to preserve their reproductive rights, and men just wanna be MAGAs.
@@Omni0404 midterm polls are different from polls in elections Trump specifically is on the ballot, which were 2016 and 2020, both elections where Trump was severely underestimated
Depressing that people are fine with a second Trump admin.
Says a lot about Biden's performance, if true.
Tbf it's also depressing that people are fine with a second Biden regime. It's the fascist traitor or the genocidal maniac. :/
@@TheAmericanPrometheus Don't care for biden, but its also more so, showing a lack of education on metrics, empirical results and policies.
Remember people literally died to own the libs in 2021-2024. 6 Feet under now at an estimated rate of 3:1.
Emotionally compromised and manipulated so they'd rather take a F- result over a C+.
So TL;DR, Biden is at fault + So is a party of lying manipulative Conservatives + Lack of education + Lack of voter participation American is at fault from different degrees, from the people that are informed and participate to the uninformed/uninterested.
Idk if it says more about Biden performance or americas apathy at large (consumerist apathy at that)
I think that says a lot about Biden and the democrats in general if Trump manages to win again.
I think Ethan is spot on about Arizona! The abortion issues will nudge the state blue
You think that's the only state? Ha! Young women vote more than young men, and they want their rights back.
They litterally just appealed successfully the abortion ban lol no chance
I just hope Kennedy doesn’t take too many Biden votes.
The law was repealed
No way thou shall not kill
I don't see Trump winning Michigan, especially if Biden's winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
Well then you must be blind
@@SusanGamingROBLOXWell, those three have usually voted in unison since 1992, so it wouldn’t make sense for only one of them to go red or vice versa.
Michigan has the largest proportion of people of North-African and Middle-Eastern descent. Biden's foreign policy is turning those voters off. I expect both Trump and Biden will have a lower turnout than in 2020.
Well Trump is sweeping those states
Biden's base from 2020 in Michigan is completely gone, but it is not in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
I can say that I have noticed a trend, that overtime the map is slowly trending left since your first video on this topic.
Whilst the polls continue to favor Trump
You are seeing what you want to see biden is horrifyingly unpopular
If WI and PA are blue, MI will stay blue
Biden's base from 2020 in Michigan is completely gone, but it is not in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
That’s why trump is going to win all 3 of em! 45/47
I would be absolutely shocked if Michigan votes red. We elected so many Democratic women over the last couple election cycles, it would be a disastrous flip for Michigan to go the other way.
Stretchin' Gretchen, Drunk Dana, and Jocelyn Benson were all incumbents, and none were overly unpopular. And the abortion amendment outran both Whitmer and Nessel by at least 3%. Benson, whose office is by far the least political of the three (and I will give her credit for rejection ridiculous and unconstitutional pleas to remove Trump from the state ballot), outran the amendment by less than 1%. And while unlikely any of the three lose, without the abortion amendment, all three margins would have been a fair amount smaller.
Biden's approval rating in Michigan is lower than Trump's is. Biden's base in Michigan is completely gone from 2020, while Trump's is completely intact and likely has actually expanded (many blue-collar workers still to gain and a minor shift right in the Black vote).
Based on demographics and trends, there is no realistic vote in the state for Democrats to pick up, but the GOP has plenty of vote to gain, and does not need very much of it to win Michigan.
i don’t think michigan has a problem with democrats, just biden
Please organize, phone bank whatever. Make sure that we protecting our democracy by voting Biden in the 2024 general election
People are acting like Trump has the power to simply "end democracy"" He doesn't. It's just a campaign lie to scare people. Nobody can simply end democracy The Supreme Court, Congress, US Governors, State Legisatures, and the US military would never allow it even if every single one of them were Republicans.
@@alexlynn2085 oh we know we practically SAVED 2022 for democrats in giving democrats one more senate seat and only letting the GOP have a 7 seat majority (before they blew it and now they have only 1)
its not just us. its YOU older generations that has to get your stuff together. we couldnt vote in 2016, we voted for dems everytime heck 2022 was when we were +25 for dems while the closest to the other 3 gens was +10 and the other two gens were either + for republicans or slightly dems. yet again YOu gens need to get your stuff together, not us.
We will have more gen Z voting for dems, however
if trump gets elected again, just so you know we gen Z will 100% blame you older generations
heck im putting it here, you failed us before we got a chance to even be adults, if you guys cant get your act together in the next 6 months i sincerely hope every single one of you realize that. The blame will 100% fall on you, not us.
Voting for Biden isn't protecting our democracy. It may, in fact, be damaging it, since the people supporting Biden believe in removing people from ballots, trying to jail political opponents, trying to jail their supporters, allowing people to vote who are not citizens or otherwise shouldn't be voting, opposing any methods (even ones used by other Western and more left-wing than the US nations) to prevent such voting (such as voter ID), and having an unequal application of the law that charges people based on their politics, as well as endorsing silencing/canceling people who disagree with their political side.
A vote for Biden is a vote for more of all of those things, and those things are a direct collective threat to democracy itself.
MAGA propaganda is powerful. It’s insane
Progressive Victory 2024 is an organization that is looking for phone bankers
Treat it like Biden is 20 points behind. Get others to vote! Don’t let the fascist back in office.
After 2016, treat every election for forever like democracy is 20pts behind. For your whole life.
I know you will but just saying for some of the less involved out there that are now more educated and getting to be into their middle age. I was very uninvolved politically before 2016 and when I was a bit younger and didn’t think a traitor could ever be elected after doing “stuff” with national security secrets.
Stop calling everything a fascist
rules to live by LOL
@@jonathanreyes5071don’t bother to respond to these indoctrinated idiots
Nice to see Biden gaining on Trump. Moving in the right direction and we haven’t hit memorial day yet.
You must have dementia like Biden!!
Biden has worse approval ratings then trump on the economy and overall job performance. CNN polls have biden losing to trump by 9 points. Sorry 🤷
Trump is leading in the polls in literally every swing state. Which he never did in either 2016 or 2020.
@@merlehexum3932 that lead has been shrinking. Bad signs as we haven’t even entered proper campaigning.
@@oscartrigueros3115 nah, the polling aggregate has actually increased since April
I agree with your map for today and also agree that the map won't be that come November. I still personally think Biden is going to win.
By a slim margin. Georgia is definitely going red and everything else will be tougher. Overall america will be redder
To paraphrase Obama, never overestimate Joe Biden's ability to screw up. While Trump keeps shooting himself in the foot, its hard to imagine a 100th shot making his situation much worse than the 99th. Biden has to not to make any major blunders between now and November, and Trump has to pick a decent VP.
I have my doubts that Biden will win, but hopefully he does 🤞
@@brandonk8517Georgia still competitive for Democrats too much growth occuring across the Atlanta area also Georgia Democrats still have more open space to pick up votes than in rural areas.
He better not
DT should be in jail and not for running for public office. I'm in Arkansas and i'm not voting for DT....
WE DO NOT WANT FASCISM!
Fortunately Fascist Biden is losing
No, we want lower gas prices, lower inflation, and taxes lowered to help us lower class and middle-class people. Trump did that
Then don't vote for the creep sniffing everyone that's single digits in age.
@drifter2198 trumps tax cuts didnt benefit the lower class and barely did anything for the middle class, trump allowed covid to kill over half a million people in a year that led to a bulk of the initial economic downturn
Agreed. It's time to put an end to the persecution of political opponents.
Free speech
Free association
Free elections
This is an interesting poll, Other polls would have you believe it's over but if this is the case its actually not that bad
Well polls always underestimate Trump, sooooo
Because he’s biased.
It's bad for Biden
Blame the far left democrats trying to protest against Gaza… They’re now saying “It’s worth a second Trump term to protest against Biden.” Get the heck out of here, talk about cognitive dissonance.
Actually what they're doing is smart. They're putting the screws to Biden and saying "if you want a second term, you need to be more firm on Israel." This only works during election years. And guess what happens this November?
They probably aren’t even democrats just trolls claiming they are and to rile everyone up
The irony is that Trump was even more supportive of Netanyahu back in his term. It was also Trump who issued Executive Order 13769: the so-called Muslim Ban.
If you look up "useful idiot" in the dictionary, you'll see pictures of college students protesting on campus.
Arabs and Muslims are also smart enough to realize that this war would not be happening if Trump was still president. And while very few of them will end up actually voting for Trump, they do realize Trump getting back in office will end the war faster, which is why they will simply not vote for Biden.
Hello! I watch your TH-cam election news every day! I’m wondering why you think that the Arizona abortion constitutional amendment will push the presidential election to Joe Biden in that state and yet you don’t think that the constitutional amendment for abortion in the state of Nevada will do the same.what other factors are going on in Nevada, which traditionally votes blue that this amendment will not assist with? I appreciate your thoughts!
Can't speak to Nevada but Arizona has a healthy Independent vote, and pro democracy McCain legacy Republican presence. Both consider stripping people of their bodily antinomy government overreach. The territory ban was repealed today but choice is on the ballot. That's bad for Lake, bad for DJT.
To be fair the last time I lived in Arizona was 2010, but there’s a huge libertarian streak in that state and the fact that the government is taking women’s bodily autonomy away is not going to make libertarians happy. Even though they probably would agree with most Republican ideas.
@jordanwhite8718 I think there still is, and the independent vote is still strong. But the libertarian, independent, and McCain Republicans are not into DJT this go around. Roe and 1/6 are very real factors.
Michigan has heavy union presence which leans more left.
It also has a large amount of people who are real angry with Biden right now.
Union Worker from Michigan and Trump Voter, Voted Biden in 2020 and never again! I know only few Union workers that still support Bidnen
@@Flying7Rok so you are a Union member who votes for an anti-Union guy for president. How do you justify that?
@@Flying7RokThe largest union in the state has endorsed Biden Meanwhile, the other guy is giving speeches about supporting unions while in a non-Union shop. I don't think Biden should be too worried.
Trumps gaining with those voters
I know everyone wants to say "polls are wrong, they were off last time blah blah blah" but margin of error is a real thing (usually between 2.5-3 points). As of today, if Nevada and Arizonas poll numbers are accurate then Trump is 100% winning both.
This is cool but, cmon it doesn’t even match up with polls.
Trumpy candidates aren't winning elections in swing-states. So why would - an adjudicated ray pest who takes credit for regressing Women's rights - Trump?
Trump is toast. :)
Honestly, polls aren’t really worth that much. They were wrong in 2016 and 2020 and they’ll probably be wrong now.
Michigan going red with Wisconsin going blue is a crazy take. Wisconsin would definitely go red first.
Biden will take michigan and nevada while trump takes wisconsin. I agree with everything else.
@@MR-cm1jgCompletely agree, and not saying WI doesn’t have a decent chance at going blue, but not before Michigan. Coming from somebody who has lived there, but who knows, maybe I’ll eat my words come November.
WI is gonna be fascinating because Trump overperformed his average by 7-8 pts both times, but Dems have been killing it lately in 2022 and 2023.
I think he's arguing more that depressed turnout shifts Michigan red. Not really that the state itself is going in that direction, but more specific disaffection with Biden among Arab American voters due to Israel/Palestine. I have no clue if that will be as salient come November, though.
I just don't buy MI, WI, PA voting differently. That would be very strange given recent elections. Still, a very interesting prediction
what map do you use to fill in?
You have to avg everything and the more polls the more accurate same with weather models
If Pennsylvania is blue then so is Wisconsin and Michigan, The Rust belt tends to stick together
They are all pretty close to 0%, so small variations.
That isn't set in stone. Michigan has pretty unique demographics that are turned off my the war in Gaza and America's backing of Israel. I can definitely see a timeline where Biden hold WI and PA but loses MI
So that would make it 281-257 with Nevada likely to go blue again.
Pennsylvania will go red along with Wisconsin and Michigan
If Michigan is red then so is Wisconsin and Michigan, The Rust belt tends to stick together
As a Wisconsinite from an urban area, Trump will most certainly win here.
I'm back and forth between Wisconsin (where I grew up) and Michigan (my current state) quite a bit. I've been to all 83 counties in Michigan and all but one of the 72 in Wisconsin. Based on what I've seen, both of those states are Trump's to lose at this point.
@@davezarvanWisconsin doesn't have a Republican Governor to have shenanigans on helping Trump win the state I can assure with a Republican Governor in Wisconsin Trump would have had a higher chance on taking Wisconsin since the Governor would have had voters disenfranchise bills pass
@@brownwolf6280 When did I mention anything even remotely close to what you just said?
Hello! I love your videos and want to know what you think about the 13 keys strategy of predicting elections. Do you find this theory valid?
13 keys is made by a Trump hater
@@coltsforsuperbowllvii6827 The 13 keys were made in *1981,* 35 wholeass years before Trump was elected.
@@derekrequiem4359 look at the guys posts though. He said that Trump should’ve been impeached in 2017. Plus all 13 keys are open to debate.
@@coltsforsuperbowllvii6827 He could be a Q person for all I care. If the model works, it works. I'm asking if there are reasons to trust or disagree with the model.
@@ericjames6501 well he says Biden wins on the economy despite polls having Trump up 20 points on the economy. He says there is no civil unrest, despite the fact you could consider the illegal immigrant crisis or the thing at Columbia University as civil unrest. And the no serious primary challenger is flawed because 1) the DNC forced RFK to run 3rd party and 2) Biden is losing votes to uncommitted.
Can you do a senate election map? Great stuff thank you
The big problem with this constant vids is that you constantly mention how much support president biden has lost which is true but you kind of ignore just how much support trump has lost within his party
I'd like to see a map where Trump is convicted with a felony.
I guarantee Trumps numbers go up. Trump is currently sleeping in court and his poll numbers have yet to take a hit.
In formulating this map, how many polling agencies have you had reference to ?
Anyone know when a safe state ever reversed course? The 15 point versions? Wisconsin in 2016 was about 7 pt lead but thats all i can place in my memory.
Wells obviously Wisconsin would have gone lean Republican at that. point in 2016 since Clinton lost some rural support that supported Obama in 2012 while also not doing well in Milwaukee compare to Obama in 2012.....
Just one tiny disagreement I have.
I think Nevada is tilt blue for the same reason as Arizona. Nevada will also be having an abortion referendum in 2024, so I don't really see why Arizona and Nevada would split like that.
Completely agree
Abortion is the only damn thing y’all have and it’s still a less important issue than the economy and the border
Two words “Northern Nevada”
No Nevada is going red for sure and it's not looking good for him in arizona
And also your average voter does not care about abortion at all the biggest voter issues are immigration and the economy so I'm so confused why you keep touting abortion because it's definitely not on your average persons mind right now
I just realized something. . . . . . how can you " Welcome me back" to my first video of yours today? Wait . . . was I already here?
"Welcome back [as in, *welcome back to this channel* ]"
"to today's video [and now that you are back to this channel, welcome to today's video]"
That's how I interpret it.
He also addresses this in the video description of every video he uploads.
@ucctgolfin88 You have 88 in your username. Even if you're not a Nazi, still a dumb thing to do. Either way, if Biden voters don't have much going on upstairs, Trump supporters don't even have an upstairs.
@@derekrequiem4359 Yea I dunno about that. he addresses 'why' he says it, but he never explains if I've already been here. Was I already here?
If Wisconsin goes blue, so is Michigan & Pennsylvania. Come Election Day, I see A LOT of moderate republicans not voting for Biden or Trump but simply staying home
Love the videos man. Any thoughts on which content you’re gonna change to if Trump wins the election?
😂😂 this channel is a massive circle jerk. 90% of the time, they are trying to conjure a spell at this point
Hmmm maybe tarot cards and palm readings
There’s nothing to do here except our civic duty. Vote. Remind your friends/family to vote.
Ok, I’ll vote. I think I’ll vote Republican.
@@Shawn-gr5ww I don’t care who you vote for. What’s that got to do with me? Just go vote.
@@jalightbourne just saying. There’s a reply section for a reason.
@@Shawn-gr5ww don't boast how ignorant you are!
Hey does anyone here know who the TH-camr red eagle politics if so plz reply to me
I'm sure he watches this channel - also an enjoyable commentator.
@@Bobber256 I was just wondering if you know who he is because he’s someone who’s making me lose hope in Biden getting another 4 years 😔
@@Idevaughan530I mean the polling looks really bad rn. One thing im noticing is that red eagle and this guy’s behavior is basically inverse of what it was last election. Red eagle essentially just showing polls, in 2020 this guy was just showing polls. 🤷♀️
@@dabeyer420 So you think they are copying off each other and are telling us fake stuff both red eagle and let’s talk elections
The key is Michigan/Wisconsin/Penn - Biden must win all 3. If he does, he needn't worry about Arizona or Nevada. I would advise Biden to focus on the big 3.
with Tammy Baldwin Senate race this presidential year that would perhaps help Biden take Wisconsin keep in mind presidential candidate have always taken Wisconsin since 1988 base on their party Senator winning the Senate race....
2:39 is that the royal we? If so, why? If not, who else is we referring to?
1. I think the amount of voters in Dearborn and Detroit that will actually follow through on threats to abandon the Democratic ticket is overrated.
2. The Michigan Democratic party has, over the last 4 years elected strong Democratic women to major statewide offices, including a big re-election for Governor Whitmer, and won back control of the Michigan legislature. They are a well oiled machine, and the GOP in Michigan is literally divided and broken.
3. I agree with a lot of commenters here that Wisconsin will go red before Michigan just by virtue of previous year's margins and even though I can see Tammy Baldwin winning, the Democrats are facing headwinds nationally in the Senate elections.
But basically everything else seems pretty on point at this time.
* DOW at all time record high.
* Two strongest years of job growth in history
* Nearly 11 million jobs created since 2021
* 3.5% unemployment rate - the lowest in 50 years
* Millions of Americans are saving $800 per year on health insurance coverage.
* More than 40 million borrowers stand to benefit from student debt relief.
* Infrastructure investments in all 50 states, D.C., territories, and throughout Tribal nations
*CHIPS bill. Major project to improve American electronic chip manufacturing.
* Inflation reduction Act -lowered drug prices, clean energy investments, reduces deficit by $300 billions, minimum tax for corporations
* Steady reduction of trump era deficits projected to drop by more than $1.8 trillion
* Fully vaccinated 79% of American adults against COVID-19
* Produced record amount of oil in 2023.
* Increased the maximum value of Pell Grants by $900
* Pardoned and released from jail those convicted of minor marijuana use
* Near a record low unemployment rate for African Americans
* Near a record low unemployment rate for Hispanics
* Brought gas prices down more than $1.60 from there summer 2023 peak
* Lowest inflation rate among all G7 countries. Down to 2.3% and still declining.
* Signed a gun safety bill
* Crime and homicides are down from trump levels
* Rallied NATO to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. Helped Sweden and Finland join NATO.
* Under Biden's first 3 years, net farm income has increased to $165 billion compared to trump
*$35 dollar cap on insulin.
*Veteran health "burn pit" legislation the GOP didn't want.
*Major rural broadband expansion.
*New rules for airlines prohibiting surprise fees and requiring automatic cash refunds.
*Saved Union pensions.
*Stopped banks nuisance fees.
All those things are true, but most Americans don’t see it that way. Sure more Americans feel better about the economy than two years ago, but it still isn’t good.
@@PremierCCGuyMMXVI it’s getting better, prices are already starting to drop at the grocery store for example.
@@erichuynh8756 Do you have any evidence to support this claim?
Hm. In polling, most Americans don't see it the way you do. And they see a lot of negatives with the Biden years that you do not. For example, not everyone supports more government spending (which has also increased inflation, something the majority opposes), gun control, Ukraine, etc. So you may list those as positives, but that doesn't necessarily mean the majority of Americans do.
@@erichuynh8756 Not where I'm living. And the most recent economic data (this last month) was that inflation has actually started ticking higher again. So much so, the Fed isn't lowering rates this month like they were kind of leaning towards before that report came out.
If michigan went red then wisconsin did as well and viceversa
This map is way too optimistic. Biden is trailing in all swing states according to all polling aggregates right now. And that's before taking into account polls have underestimated Trump twice and the effect of the disastrous campus protests.
@@dionbaillargeon4899 Trump lost to Biden by nearly 8 million votes BEFORE he was a twice-impeached, adjudicated fraud, ray pest, defamer, insurrectionist, mega-felon, whom his own VP won't endorse. Presidential historians have ranked Trump as the literal 'worst President of all time', Lol.
Biden will win.
Trump is toast. :)
@@dionbaillargeon4899 very true
I agree with this map, I’ve analyzed every recent poll for the swing states. I just do think that Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan are simply too close to predict before Election Day (as of right now). I think Nevada goes into the lean Republican column
U chould b right but abortion is going to have more a massive impact with women. No one know how it much.
My only doubt about this map is how big a roll a race dip for Biden will play in states like Michigan or Georgia.
Its just hard for me to believe that Biden will see the greatest drop off in support from Black voters in modern politics. Especially when it hasn't been seen in any special or primary election and they were one of his strongest blocks in 2020.
Because of that I believe Georgia would only be tilt R and Michigan should be tilt D.
New polls are showing a much closer race in michigan so i think it'll stay blue
But the polls are also showing trump winning AZ/WI/PA. Plus trump always outperforms polls
I agree with all of these characterizations except for Nevada, which I have as Tilt D, but I do think Nevada will be the closest state of this election (at least as of now). I could very well see it be within 0.2%. I have the exact same characterizations everywhere else!
Arizona is going red,. And if MI goes red then WI is going red.. and probably PA too
I think Nevada holds still, it's wavered a little in recent elections but the Biden campaign know this and certainly have the time to work and hold on to the state. Otherwise I agree with the rest of this. The abortion issue will drive out voters in Arizona, the war in Gaza will keep Arab Americans home in Michigan
Democrats always have ground game to win
You are telling us, that Biden will lose due Michigans immigrant community is upset to his Israel/Gaza politics. But at the same time the people create a second Trump term who is much more against Palestine than Joe ever was. Electors are just weird…
So, in short, you think the polls are imaginary bro is down big people do not like him
The big issue is the economy and immigration that democrats are stuck behind due to both gaslighting and terrible immigration policy
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania voting to the left of Michigan and Nevada?
I agree that this is the map for today but it won’t necessarily be that come November. There’s a reason why I don’t really subscribe to “if the election were held today”
Agreed.
I cannot believe this is happening! I cannot believe this is happening!! How could this be happening??
Step outside of your liberal propaganda bubble.
@@Mr_Unapologetic27 You never saw Fateful Findings. Lame.
There is no way Michigan goes Red unless 3rd parties tilt it red. NC goes Blue.
Oh boy! I am hyped for a new Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin prediction video!
Will it be Arizona-Wisconsin blue and Nevada-Michigan red?
Or will it be Arizona-Wisconsin red and Nevada-Michigan blue?
(Also, will Pennsylvania, Georgia and NC be SWINGS or TLTS 🤔)
I think you do a good job of being objective and following the data without adding your own personal biases.
I think Nevada will stay blue
With so much Demographics growth happing in Georgia the state is still competitive despite what polls are saying also as the elections gets close popular state senators figure in Georgia would campaign for Biden
GA has both senators democrats.
Trump is leading in GA by 4.5 points. Even if you factor in the average 4 point underestimate the DNC has, Trump will still lead the GA polls come Election Day by 0.5 points.
It will surprise me that MI and WI are breaking with their similar voting record this year.
Good argumentation. I think this is about where it is, but it is very close.
This map is so close. No way arabs and students dont show up. Trump is no Arab friend. They are pissed but not stupid. Whitmer won by 8 points. It's this map with Michigan in the Biden column
Thank you. That uncommitted vote was a symbolic gesture and largely successful considering how Biden is shifting his attitude towards Netayanhu.
@@erichuynh8756Biden is still a Zionist genocidal maniac who cucks for Netanyahu.
I agree that the Arab vote will still go to Biden, because they aren't idiots; what I'm not sure of are their white college educated "allies" who have recently rediscovered the thrill of Judenhass.
Hopefully we will see Trump in a orange jumpsuit before the election ( Probably not, but one can dream).
A prisoner can be elected president.
@@KennyOrr80 and that is the scary part
I'm not sure anyone should HOPE for that.
Moreover, wishing your political opponents be in jail since you think it will help your electoral prospects is about as anti-democracy as you can get...
Question - what is your political bias? Is there any ideology and/or party that you identify with, or perhaps a stance on an issue you’re passionate about? Love your videos
yes he is biased against republicans, pro-america stuff, white people, etc. Trump is up 5 points in AZ but this nutjob gave it to Biden.
This is actually the hardest election for me vote for but i think ive made my decision 🔵
If it's a hard decision, you should probably think twice because if the vote isn't easy, you are not making the right choice
You'll be voting for a corpse i guess, great choice 🙄
Vote for trump if the economy is hitting you hard :)
With the repeal of abortion law in Arizona, I think it is more of a lean republican
I disagree! There’s going to be a constitutional amendment on the ballot to assure that the 1864 law won’t come back. This is going to draw quite a few people to the polls and I predict Arizona goes for Biden because of it.
The ballot initiative isn't going away.
Arizona doesn't lean much Republican anyways with so much growth happening across the suburbs and metropolitan regions...When Arizona was lean Republican Democrats didn't make up much of the vote in Maricopa county.....also Arizona gaining more population among younger people not much babyboomer are coming to Arizona ..... Florida have taken the spot for babyboomer to flee for retirement.
@@brownwolf6280 probably that's why Florida is wealthy unlike Arizona 😅
@@nilnil8411 FL is ranked 35 for GDP per capita.
AZ is ranked 36.
Both are below the country's average.
I think it's going to be the opposite where Joe will go over the finish line with the 272 and the orange will lose.
All is would disagree with is that Michigan would go blue before wisconsin
So you decide to sit out November 5th 2024 this is a very simple question to answer. 1 if Trump wins and you did not vote you voted for Trump.2 if Biden wins and you did not vote you voted for Biden.
I'm voting 4 Biden, so I voted 4 Biden. :)
Michigan may shift some to the right, but I think it may be bluer than some of the other swing states given its record since 2018
In the future Michigan would become a lean Republican state as population comes to decline and Georgia would come to be a democratic state base upon more demograph growth
A lot of blue-collar working class ancestral Democrats still have not shifted to voting Republican in Michigan. And it doesn't take much of gain in that demographic to flip the state back to Trump.
When even this guy has Trump as favorite, you know it is looking bad.
"even this guy" suggests he is biased. Is that really what you get from these videos?
??? Your comment doesn’t make sense. “This guy” is quite unbiased and fair.
Key words are 'if the election were held today', which it's not. Still got 6 months until the general.
Is the election being held _TODAY,_ or in _6 MONTHS?_
Correct answers only, please!
@@antieatingactivistlook at his video titles. It’s either about how Biden is doing great or how the GOP is falling apart.
I question your decision to color New York and Illinois blue. Have you been paying attention to what has been going on in New York city and Chicago? The immigration issues are going to flip quite a lot of individuals red, locally and nationally.
In the horse race of this election, that has many many laps to go, Trump is currently a bit ahead, but Biden is moving a bit faster. But there's still way too many laps yet and it's still way too close to call the race
I honestly think Trump wins 312-226 in the EC but loses the popular vote by 1-3%
I have trump at 283
I have Biden at 319.
@@aleksandarcurguz2428it’s possible. NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA, GA will all be within 2 points
@@kenotube3160flip in NC?
Its not 2016, Trump is not going sweep every single swing state.
Vote blue please, Biden 2024 to save America and the western world. A second Trump term would be a disaster for all people in the western hemisphere.
Only a strong America can protect us all
Bro, "to save the world." You gotta be kidding me. Two big wars broke out thanks to Biden.
Dude he’s arming an administration that’s killing children right now.
Brainwashed
Why is Nevada shifting away from Biden as compared to last election? Is it inflation or something? Also I don’t see Biden winning Wisconsin but losing Michigan
Now see, I don’t see Michigan & Nevada going red, and I don’t see Arizona going Blue
I see the opposite TBH
Lol no way MI is red.
Biden's base from 2020 in Michigan is completely gone.
I simply refuse to accept a reality where Michigan goes red and PA and Wisconsin do not. I do agree that Arizona has more of a chance of going blue than most expect.
I honestly have not seen a more disconnected from reality polling map
I think the reason people say you are left leaning is because for the most part you alwasy give good news for the left and bad news for the right maybe add Like a video a week that supports the right or bad news for the left. ik everyone has a learn like I am on the right and I listen to you because your are left leaning and I would admit that you are left leaning at the beginning of a video wvery now and then and then there is no way people could ever say you sre not open or transparent.
I think Arizona will become a blue state eventually and so will Georgia. But Pennsylvania has surging gop registration even though it seems to be trending left. We’ll see what happens-
We'll see. Although to be fair, the surge in GOP registration in Pennsylvania couls be explained by ancestral Democrats finally switching parties
both Az and Georgia have had a increase in population across there suburbans and Urbana areas... While it's rural areas doesn't gets much populated
I'd say that AZ and GA are about ~12 years behind CO and VA, politically speaking. The trends are definitely favorable for Ds, but demographics does not always equal destiny.
@@NguyenNguyen-fq6ov True, but that would still be the state shifting right.
@@NguyenNguyen-fq6ov that’s true but I feel like with the exception of a handful of counties bordering MD that Gore won, central PA has pretty much always been red
I have a feeling Georgia will be close but Blue 🤞
#BlueGA2024
What people missed out of Georgia is that Trump won't carry momentum across Georgia by not having Brian Kemp campaign for him after what happen between them in 2020.... Majorie Greene Taylor would be more on the spotlight in Georgia campaigning for Trump which she isn't that popular among most Republican or Independents that voted for Kemp in 2022
Hope Stacey comes out to campaign for Biden like in 2020 mobilizing people to vote I already seen the top two senators campaigning for Biden during the final weeks to days of Election day
@@brownwolf6280 Stacy Abrams? Why do you support an election denier?
I don't see a scenario where Michigan goes red, but Wisconsin doesn't
Biden's base from Michigan in 2020 is completely gone, but it is not in Wisconsin.
Wait this isn’t the internal map where RFK Jr wins 367 - 171 😂
Jan 21 2025: Return of the Fascist
American's love crappy sequels
Can you tell me exactly how Trump is a fascist?
"somehow, Trump returned"
In what way was he fascist in his first term?
@@coltsforsuperbowllvii6827 he tweeted mean things and served burgers.
@@anasfarahi4401 just like mustache man
I really don’t think it’s going to be this close. Biden will get over 300 EVs.
He'll be lucky if he even gets 300 votes in total.
Trump will be hoping to win Michigan and Wisconsin, but wont.
@@SusanGamingROBLOX 300 Electoral votes is a win ro-blockhead. :)
You gotta be super delusional
I agree 100% they underestimated the Republican primary election resultat (not fansy poll) which looks very bad for the orange man
Question - all of these assumptions are based on the playing field as you speak. NOT factoring in Trumps Criminal trial?
His trial
Won’t change much
@@sublime7617his trial doesn’t change anything. Democrats and liberals have deluded themselves into thinking it will change anything. Trumps fan base only grows with every charge he gets. Liberals and tradcons are only doing the trials for their own satisfaction because they hate Trump AND can do it as long as Biden is in office.
I underestimated the effect the 2020 census had on the altered electoral votes. Biden starts off having 4 less electoral votes if you compare his 2020 map to now. Its gonna be close this november
VOTE BLUE TO SAVE OUR DEMOCRACY OUR CONSTITUTION OUR COUNTRY....
😂😂😂
@@jonathanreyes5071 democracy being a stake is not a joke Donald Trump and his supporters are a bad embarrassing joke
DEMENTIA
@@ThePerfectchris IDIOT!!!!
@@ThePerfectchris Trump = $exua1 predat0r
Friendly reminder to all patriots that Election Day has been *rescheduled* to *DECEMBER 5, 2024.* I'll see you all then when we vote for the God-Emperor and take our country back! 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸
''God-Emperor'' Or, rather, a fifth rate con artist and grifter and sex offender. Surely we deserve a better ''God'' than this don't we....?!
Dems sent someone to federal prison for this meme
Oh Jesus, I can’t even.
The average national prepoll also always underestimates the DNC by 4 points. So if you want the real margins add 4 points to Biden for all of the states. For instance, right now in GA, the national average says Trump is leading by a 4.2 point margin, but in reality if the election were to be held today, the real margin would be a Trump lead by only 0.2 points. A lot of left leaning and left leaning moderate voters don’t participate in the prepoll activities, but will still go out and vote for Biden on Election Day. That is where these shadowy 4 points always come from that always confuse poll analysts. It’s these voters who made the GOP think the ‘election was stolen’ in 2020. Pollers don’t count these voters in prepoll averages simply because they don’t participate, but they will be there in every state come Election Day. That is why Biden will win MI by a 1.5 point margin, win AZ by a 0.5 point margin, win PA by a 6 point margin, win WI by a 3 point margin come Election Day.
Jesus I hope you're right. I'm not American but I have followed things fairly closely and the polls simply do not make sense. In my country - the UK - polls are increasingly questionable in that they often fail to pick things up, whether due to methodology or what I don't know. Maybe it is partly a sign of how polarised our politics are getting these days.
The mid terms in the US, it seems to me, represented an unholy alliance between media, pollsters and the Republicans who fooled each other into thinking or believing that there would be an electoral disaster for the Democrats, never happened of course. You have to quastion how this happened. Only mid terms of course but still potentially indicative. In my country the equivalent are local elections (happening now) and, every time, the incumbent party gets hammered. Local elections get used as a means of displaying displeasure with central government.
I do get the distinct impression that polling in the US is under reading Democratic support and that this will be exacerbated by single issues. It may also not be picking up that people who perhaps wouldn't normally vote be are signing up in large numbers in many places.
polls also underestimate Trump by around 3 to 4 points.
@@anasfarahi4401 They certainly didn't leading up to the mid terms, they clearly massively inflated the Republican´s chances.
@@stephenthomas3085 true, but I was specifically talking about Trump, he was not on the ballot in 2022 (and neither was Biden)>
Itw encouraging to see Trump's margin continuing to decrease; its super early, and this is going to be a war of inches not miles. The fact that Biden is beginning to eat into Trump's margins in early May with around 6 months left to go makes me feel hopeful, but the push has to continue. We need to vote for Biden; not voting, voting 3rd party, is a vote for Trump and a vote for fascism.
The fact that trump is even leading in the polls is terrible news for Biden, in 2020 trump only led the polling aggregate for a combined 5 days.
Are you taking into account of abortion on the ballot?
Abortion is a #5 issue
Since the overturning of Roe, abortion is on the ballot in every state.
@@RedPolitics1776bold of you to assume that everyone orders the importance of issues the same as you…
Unfortunately I think people care more about economy and Gaza. Not unfortunate in the sense those aren’t important issues (they are) but it hurts Biden.
@@RedPolitics1776 Maybe nationally, but I'll wager it's much higher in the states where it's being denied like Arizona and Ohio. When it goes on the ballot, it could swing the states.
Ive always been told hope dies last. But seeing this... I dont think thats true.
Looks about right
Isn’t Nevada voting on an abortion referendum as well? Feel like that gives it to blue.
There's an effort to get it on the ballot this November, but it's not official yet.
What a heartbreaker this would be for American democracy.
And from American democracy, more to the point.
Your next elections will be gerrymandered to oblivion and every single voter suppression law imaginable put in place, to the extent that the Democratic party will be unable to win another election. Effectively the end of democracy. Please, please do not vote this man in. It isn't just him, it is the army of dangerous people like Bannon et al who will sweep in and do irreversible damage to civil society, democracy and institutions of every type. It will also be a green light to every Fascist party and dictator around the globe. It would be a catastrophe in my opinion.
@@Bobber256fr
Democracy democracy until democracy votes for him
It's looking troublesome at this point.
I find it strange you say Nevada will go red given their will also be an abortion ballot measure in Nevada this November. I know that doesn't guarantee that the state will go blue, and I get your points, but it feels like a stretch. I think it is closer to going blue even than Arizona given it's electoral history combined with the upcoming abortion measure.