Joe Biden’s Pathway to Victory is Easier Than We Think
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 มี.ค. 2024
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I’ve been reached out by pollsters many times and I think polls are misleading for one reason: the questions suck. Just because I think the country isn’t in a good place, doesn’t mean I would vote for trump.
Yes exactly!! The questions are terrible and often feel like they are trying to lead you to some conclusion
@@bubbles581 That's what polls are for, statistics is just making numbers say what you want them to say at any given time. Pollsters need to be kept relevant, so they engineer the questions on both sides to reach horse race conclusion that says it's neck and neck, well turns out when you do that you tend to underepresent the liberal voting bloc by as much as five points sometimes because you're overcompensating for how utterly unpopular the conservative position is.
So true. "Do you agree or disagree with the job that President Biden is doing?" Well... disagree. But it'll be a cold day in hell before i fill the box in by Trump's name on the ballot.
Funny, you were fully reliant on them when they had Trump down in 2016 and 2020.
@@ericscott9029🤡 HUH?
Let's not overlook Trump's truly remarkable capacity for rallying historic and unprecedented numbers of people to get out and vote.....against him.
😂 Touche!
The interesting thing is that the last non-consecutive president we had won the popular vote both times. Trump has never had the popular vote, even when he won in 2016.
It’s something to consider
@@SignatureFox713 Trump is going to be the first president in history to lose the popular vote 3 times.
@@SignatureFox713 cleveland actually won the popular vote in the middle election in 1888, but he lost the ec. so its like the reverse
@@stick-Iink even more interesting TBH
I dont see Arizona going red. Kari Lake is such an absolute joke that no one can take the GOP seriously there
The bigger joke is that Team Rape still take her seriously. What is there to say for her? She’s arrogant, big mouthed and got famous on TV. Oh… hang on…
I live in AZ. People here don't like Kari Lake at all. Hispanic Americans here in particular are heavily supporting Ruben Gallego.
Yeah and she lost by 0.5% right? This time when the MAN! MYTH! LEGEND! himself is running alongside her I don't see how she could lose. I am Indian American from Phoenix, Maricopa County, AZ. Indians❤ Trump
@@nilnil8411 Kari Lake is a horrendous candidate and only hurts the GOPs chances. She's getting less popular, not more
@@nilnil8411Well, Drumpf hates you, so it's definitely a one-sided relationship. It's not personal though, he hates everybody according to the public record and the people who have worked with him. How many times did he make fun of that lady Senator by mockingly calling her "Pocahontas" because she had Native American heritage in her family? Hundreds of times over the past 8 years. He intentionally disrespected every one of you each time he did that. But apparently, you don't mind.
I struggle with this channel because it feels like you’re only telling me what I want to hear and, after 2016, I can’t be the only one that gets uncomfortable with that kind of reassurance
He predicted a trump win a few weeks ago based on
Polling.
Good Point.
This channel is hard cope on dems, if you want a real and as unbiased as possible analysis of polls go watch decision desk hq.
I agree. It's total BS. Biden victory but people need to vote.
It gets worse, add RFK to the mix & the 100k voters not voting for Biden in Dearborn, MI, MI will hand the presidency back to Trump.
Y'all need to get out and vote, pathways and polls be damned
Voted that racist once, not again, haven't even bothered my family to register, probably 8 votes or so less in Texas.
@@CenTexMex101Vote Trump ❤
@@CenTexMex101 "racist" oh god...
@@JesusOrDestructionpendejo, I Said I'm not voting
@@plutoidrepublic2765do human rights not matter for brown kids? Or just not Muslim brown kids? Do you think Biden still believes poor kids are just as capable as white kids?
Go censure another brown woman, trash party I voted for in every election for over a decade.
Act as though we're down by 10. Vote, vote, vote.
I will vote against TFG out of vindictiveness and spite! Even if he was going to win with a "lead pipe cinch" I would still show up to vote against him! Even if he can't win and dies before the election, I will cast my vote against him. I am that petty.
I wish unfortunately under 18
@@thesportranter5295Get others to vote blue for you
Vote Republican 🇺🇸
@@shappy60nah
Do not count your chickens. Just get out and VOTE. Americans must take both houses and the White house. Vote vote vote.
Yes, we must take both houses and the White House. The Democrats have done enough damage.
Be more specific. What, exactly, has been damaged. We have low unemployment, lowering gas prices, record stock market gain, infrastructure being repaired, America's leadership restored... if it wasn't for Trump sinking the border bill, we would have immigration reform.@@MS-ns2pj
Well said.
@@MS-ns2pj*the MAGA Republicans
@@MS-ns2pj John said "Americans". The Russian lovers can flick off. Did you vote for Putin this weekend?
IT DOES NOT MATTER, WE ALL MUST GO OUT AND VOTE TO SAVE OUR COUNTRY AND DEMOCRACY
That fact that you can still vote means democracy isn't at stake. Your liberties and rights on the other hand.
@@MrNintokuJust look at how Hitler came into power.
DEMOCRACY IS OT AT STAKE, YOU COULD VOTE IN 2020 CORRECT?
@@MrNintoku Yep, Republicans are hellbent on taking those away too. They've already taken away bodily autonomy from HALF our population. And nice job pretending they're not making it harder for specially targeted Democrat voting demographics to vote. Big fat liar, you are.
Vote trump!!!! Take back America
Don't tell people it's easy. Tell them they need to vote or we are going to a real life handmaid tale.
Reading comprehension when? Easier doesn’t equal easy.
@@zen_tewmbssure thing pal.
Don’t get comfortable!! Get out and VOTE BLUE!!
@@jr.rodriguez181nope. Vote Trump 🇺🇸
@@JesusOrDestruction Trump is objectively bad for the average American, as well as American power on the world stage.
Why are you anti-American? That’s a weird take for someone who uses an American flag emoji.
The fact that Trump is even close in this election is a testimony to the Idiocracy we are becoming. It's sad and pathetic.
No the fact that there are idiots still willing to vote for democrats despite how much both Obama and Biden have fucked the world shows that most of America is stupidly evil
I think a big thing for Wisconsin to lean Dem is because of our new maps. Dems are excited at the outlook we can finally take back our state. We are mobilizing voting and encouraging candidates to run in every race! This is the perfect storm for Biden to win the state and Dems to out perform the GOP in Wisconsin.
Vote Trump 🇺🇸
Milwaukee is a dem shi# hole lol
So happy for my neighbors to the north! A lot people fought hard for that.
Get your cry towels it dems
Do you know anything about FEDERAL elections? New maps might change state results, but Wisconsin gets the same number of electoral votes regardless of "new maps." Let me guess: you went to NEA public schools.
What’s wild about your map is that even if Biden loses Nevada, he still makes it across the finish line at 270 v 268. Goes to show how vital the blue wall is for victory.
hopefully there aren’t any faithless electors then.. unless that’s not allowed anymore? I don’t recall
He could hold the blue wall and still lose if he doesn't hold NE-2
@@beachboysandrewne-2 is quite urban
@@beachboysandrew Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is Omaha and it could go either way.
@beachboysandrew it would be the nightmare scenario of 269-269 and the House is Republican. I pray that this never happens
I mean it's worth noting that while trump's victory in the republican primary was never in doubt he underperformed in almost every state. Unlike Biden he did lose one primary on Super Tuesday, and heck Nikki Haley got 13% of the vote in Georgia yesterday even though she dropped out. Also I think the fact that Haley hasn't yet endorsed him is a bigger deal that he or other republicans realize, because we know he's not going to actually try to win back Haley's more adamant supporters because that would involve changing his behavior or acknowledging his shortcomings...both things he's shown time and time again he's incapable of doing.
Put some respect on Jason Palmer for beating Biden in American Samoa 😤
No not really he didn’t do bad in a city like Atlanta. Also the reason why she got so many was because Georgia’s voting did start February 19th and she didn’t drop until march 6th. That’s 16 days later
@@YourDadOnFriday Technically that was a caucus not a primary, but okay that is a fair point my mistake.
Cope. Biden underperformed while facing no real opposition. Also many people voted non committed. Trump 2024 😂🇺🇸
Who's Nikki Haley?
I dont know if my liver will survive a third election night featuring trump
Nah I feel that, I've only been politically active since 2020 but 1 election night featuring Trump was enough
@@ilikespaghetti4458 2016 was especially bad; I was also drinking to forget who I had to vote for
I can predict that it would not survive a 4th.
@@edwardrhoads7283 not fucking remotely.
I agree, especially now that I'm 20 and actually have a vote this time (though since I'm not 21 yet I don't have to worry about the liver part). And even if Trump wins, I've always been a strong advocate for liberals being armed.
The Arizona GOP is a disaster. Kari Lake is a joke, she's bringing the party down 😂
One factor I use to judge the job a president is doing is my 401k/IRA, so far in 3 years and 3 months it has performed better under Biden than it did 4 years under trump. I’m not talking 1, 2 or 3 percentage points, we are now into double digits better. Also savings and CD rates under Biden is 3-7 percent vs, 2-3 percent under trump. Yes the cost of living has increased but so has wages. And we are starting to see inflation drop, groceries I buy weekly, I can see prices coming down. Remember Biden was saddled with a country shutdown, compared to other countries the US has come out of an unprecedented once in a lifetime economic devastating event in pretty good shape, it’s getting better everyday
BS! That's 100% BS! my 401k doubled doubled double under Trump. Under Biden gone up, but not much. I have had ZERO pay raises in 3 years! EVERYBODY we both know is struggling more now than ever. STOP LYING. START THINKING.
It's strange that most people think the economy sucks. They should be happy paying double for food and housing if it keeps Biden as President.
If wages have increased as well as cost of living those two cancel each other out. Savings being tied to interest rates I am not surprised that it is better under Biden. Inflation is high; hence high interest rates. Biden extended the shutdown. The shutdown under Trump I would hope you'd agree was necessary as no one had a vaccine OR any knowledge of the disease. Anecdotal evidence is not valid. Groceries being cheaper for you is welcome news locally. Others in different parts of the country may find shortages still occurring in random items, lower quality food stuffs and gas still the same high price since several years ago.
It is why statistics that take into account the entire country are used and not how 1 individual is doing as a litmus test.
It's amazing people talk about Biden's chances while ignoring independents and never Trump Republicans
People who aren't as invested into politics like you and me don't realize this fact. Also MAGA don't listen to facts or even logic.
*Most* Republicans fall in line at the end of the day. Independents may swing for Joe but I'm not holding my breath any Republican "sick of Trump" doesn't end up voting for him anyway.
Same here. The GOP base always falls in line, well, everyone does I think, but you're more likely to see liberals stick to their principles and not vote for candidates who betray them.@@BexRanner
and women. Suburban women hate Trump.
@@lydiawilder5996Usually they do, but this is Trump 3.0.. There are many more anti-Trump Republicans this election than in 2020.
AZ has been trending blue since 2018. AZ rejected MAGA candidates the past 6 yrs. I predict AZ will go blue again.
Same with Georgia 💙
AZ is blue!! Let’s keep it that way!! 💙🌊💙🌊
@@jr.rodriguez181 O.K!
I live in AZ and I can't see Trump winning here. Any other Republican would be stronger. Trump's history against John McCain hurts him here. I think AZ goes Blue again.
I agree. Not even one MAGA candidate has prevailed there ever since (all "so close and yet so far" as LTE so eloquently put it for Nevada), and with Fake Lake on the ballot again and the local party poised to completely control Phoenix this will make the Democratic Party far more appealing in general. It seems that AZ is slowly turning into another Colorado
This is anecdotal, but I don't know anyone that voted for Biden in 2020 that isn't going to vote for him again. I do, however, know a LOT of people that voted for Trump in 2020 that aren't voting for him again (most just aren't planning on voting). I think turnout is going to be down across the board, but the polls always lag sentiment, and just don't capture the popular sentiment.
That’s true. I have a couple rightie pals that voted for Trump twice who say they won’t vote for him agajn. I’m sure they won’t vote for Biden but I’m in AZ where Biden won by 10k votes. If Trump even loses a couple percent of his 2020 voters he’s toast here
@andrewward5891 they are lying
The liberals i work with, they hate Trump for taking advantage of the tax breaks BIDEN gave him.
They refuse to vote Trump, even though, they can't afford to buy a house. But they hate Biden, so they are voting Kennedy. -- life under Trump was better, your lying to yourself if you don't see that.
Exactly, Trump is losing popularity amongst self proclaimed conservatives in large numbers, something like 30% or more republicans won’t vote for Donald Trump, that’s NOT a small number, and it’s backed up by how well Nikey Haley did before she dropped out. But you don’t see that for Biden
Turn out is going to be down simply because 2020 was a freak year. Pandemic + super early voting + mail in voting. The question is what age bracket you are in and the other is who will have more enthused voters. The former being that if you are young, your demographic isn't likely to vote anyways.
We cannot take anything for granted, we need to get out and vote!
2016 and 2022 are perfect indicators polls don't guarantee anything.
You gotta love how confident MAGA are that they will win, They are in for a shock in November
I don’t really like neither of them but I’d be surprised if Biden wins
What's worrying is how complacent Democrats such as yourself are being. This election could go either way.
Normally that wouldn't be anything to freak out about. But considering one of the candidates is a literal dictator who wants to overthrow and destroy our very democracy. It's terrifying that he has a 50% chance of victory.
Democrats though Trump stood no chance in 2016, look where that complacency got us. Don't make the same mistakes in 2024. Fight with everything you've got for the next 7 months. To make sure Biden is leading the polls going into that election.
They are always overconfident. Ego is king in their clan.
@@footballnerd277you're assuming complacency, but no indication was given that the op is disengaged
I will never feel confident again after 2016.
The polling at this time in 2020 in Georgia almost perfectly reflect the polling we see right now. Biden, who won by 0.3%, was not projected in a single poll to receive even 50% of the vote in Georgia until September. Polling in Georgia is very unreliable with younger voters at this stage. Just things to consider. It’ll be a toss up again I believe. Another close vote. So, get registered! And vote! 🗳️
Vote Trump, lower taxes! Make American SAFE AGAIN! Trump 24
I am a taxpayer When Donald Trump was in office there was no tax breaks for me at all a lie that all comes out of Donald Trump's mother's lies on top of this November I'm voting blue
I live in North Carolina and I can tell you, I have neighbors who regret voting red. I think Biden will do better in NC than 2020
all the cities and affluent areas of NC are strong blue... all the sht hole farm towns and hillbilly trailer park areas where crime is rampant and they molest children are heavily red
Whereabouts do you live in NC? I used to live in Fayetteville.
@@calinasagilitypartner4444 I live in east NC. I don’t know if it’s really safe for me to say that
I'll be honest LTE: I've been following your videos for many years. Only in the past few months have I felt like the quality has really dropped in terms of accurately trying to forecast elections. Instead it seems like you're really cherry picking to find any good news for Biden -- when every video you make it "here's why this is bad news for Reps / good news for Dems" even on issues that others are categorizing as "bad news for Dems," it just starts to feel desperate
Yeah, I remember really liking his videos leading up to the 2020 election, but LTE is basically just BlueEaglePolitics now. Every video title is "Is this is END for the GOP???" and the thumbnail is just Amy Klobuchar with laser eyes or something. He recently dedicated a video on a Biden +2 poll and just ignored the fact that the RCP average has been Trump +2 for a couple months.
The echo chamber here is so creepy too. Biden has been bleeding younger voters over Israel/Palestine for close to six months and the majority of Americans still blame him for inflation, but they're convinced he's gonna win in a landslide because the SOTU address boosted his approval a little.
I know it’s election season when I see Ethan’s vids suggested for me. Good to see you again! 😅
Can’t see Arizona going read while Nevada goes blue.
it will go red
Fascism is on the ballot. It shouldn't be this close.
Sure, buddy.
How is Trump fascist, you dont know what the word means
You don't know what facism is bud.
The answers to your comment proved your point. Trumpflakes are so determined to turn the country into Trumptardia aka Dumbfuckistan.
All the more reason to vote for Trump.
I really can't understand how anyone making less than 200K per year could vote Republican. Only logical explanation is they just don't know what the economic platforms of the two parties are, how they differ and which social class benefits the most from each platform.
Maybe they're just smart
@@sippysquid9146 Really? So please tell us what the economic platforms of the two parties are, how they differ and which social class benefits the most from each platform.
I can't see how anybody can vote for either party. There both corrupt
Because the politicians convince them the reason they are not making 200k is the gays/blacks/jews/etc and if they get elected they will make sure these groups can't funnel money from them 😅
because hate sells waayy more than any other political platform.
I think Arizona is a state that will lean blue from now on. Democrats carried the last 5 recent statewide elections.
Between Covid taking them out in bigger numbers, roe v wade being overturned and demographic changes … republicans are toast 😂
take NOTHING for granted vote vote vote vote
One postive thing I can say is that despite trump leading in RCP in all 6 of these states, dems have people like Bob Casey and a Tammy Baldwin to drag them over the finish line.
RCP is a right-wing site, and always has been. There are better sites.
@@evancohen1503cope
@@evancohen1503 trump is leading on every site
@@evancohen1503yup. RCP said Kari Lake and Blake Masters would win in AZ in 2022. They also got Wisconsin governor race wrong and the PA and GA senate races wrong.
RCP should not be used to accurately predict anything
@@prowindowlicker2234 Fun fact: every single one of the tossup races on RCP for the 2022 Senate elections underestimated the D candidate. _All EIGHT of them._
The trending issues:
Pro choice, climate change, new cohort of younger voters, independent voter increase are all indicators that Biden will win.
My reasons are 1) Biden is not mentally ill, 2) he believes in a functioning government 3) he won't renew the tax cut to the rich.😊
Excellent points!😊
Young people are voting 3rd party
Rust belt boomers retired to Florida (doesn't do Trump any good) and some Trump voters got COVID.
I might dislike Biden and how he handles things, but he's at the least predictable in that he is a cut from the cloth politician. Trump is both far too unpredictable and manic for me to ever be comfortable seeing him wield that level of power ever again.
Have you heard him at his Cult gatherings lately? WOW!! He is getting way worse than he ever was.
Trump had promise initially in that he was an outsider and seemingly had a "no-nonsense" attitude with regard to DC. Unfortunately his presidency proved that being an outsider is not necessarily a desirable trait in a candidate, and to me personally his handling of Covid was abysmal.
@@swolejeezy2603 He was never "no-nonsense." Always was "nonsense only."
@@camicawber well that’s clear now. But he gave that impression initially, at least to me.
@@swolejeezy2603 electing a reality tv star to the highest office on the planet was always gonna be a pretty disasterous move
I dislike Biden. I strongly dislike Trump.
I'll vote for Biden, again, but he needs to do more to to earn the youth vote.
I’d say he’s earned my vote. Lower prescription prices, CHIPS act, infrastructure spending, student loan forgiveness, unified nato. The only thing he could be doing better is his handling of Palestine.
The youth don't vote. Just ask Bernie how his campaign(s) went. Biden tries appealing to demographics (suburbanites, middle aged folks, moderates, indies) that actually vote because you win elections by getting... more votes.
The youth don't v0te. Just ask Bernie how his campaign(s) went. It makes sense that Biden tries to appeal more to other demographics (suburbanites, moderates, indies, middle aged, older) since those folks actually turn out.
@@derekrequiem4359 100,000 uncommitted votes in Michigan beg to differ.
Like dying?
As someone who lives in Arizona and follows politics closely due to my job, the polls on Arizona aren't going to be close to what will happen on election day. Trump candidates haven't won state elections and Trump is still unpopular with a lot of old school conservatives in Arizona. The vote will still be razor thin but Trump Republicans and Trump himself have done little to gain traction among a lot of independents and Republicans he lost plus the state Republican Party has been a mess.
How's it looking now with that Civil War era abortion ban?
Interested in your take on the recent resignations in the house. And are resignations a good indicator for house elections in a presidential election year?
I still vote even though my vote for president NEVER counts because I live in a red state and our electoral votes always goes to the GQP candidate. Our recent presidential elections being decided by just a few thousand voters in 3-4 states regardless of what the overwhelming national majority of voters want always makes our elections a crap shoot and can't really be considered democracy
Same as someone from Missouri it's miserable voting because it's like banging your head on a wall. I just vote to make sure ballot measures that are good get passed.
THAT may change! take heart, even GA, NC, TX, and AZ are slowly trending BLUE! When a couple more bigger states or 3-4 small ones go BLUE, R's are basically screwed. And America will finally begin to join the 21st century, getting to work reforming our old broken EC sham voting system. ☑💙👍
I'm also curious how president bidens historic chips and science and inflation reduction act will play in Georgia Arizona and Ohio since on chips alone alot of new jobs have been created and roughly 10 billion dollars in gdp for Arizona over all economy. Plus things like the Medicare price caps on insulin and 2,000 dollars out of pocket max cap will not go un noticed by those on Medicare or the expansion of veterans benefits under pact.
They NEED to be reminded. Clean Jobs Midwest is a great group.
I've seen people talk about how many of these polls are online opt-in polls. In other words, people who dislike the current administration are more likely to opt-in and voice their opinion. And the opt-in polls bring down the averages for the actual well conducted polls.
THere are those. There are also phon polls. Which means you're not polling random people you're polling people who will answer a phone number they don't know. Do you know anyone under 30 who will answer a random phone number they don't know?
That's just one factor.
@@andscifithat's me, lol. But also i only get like, 3 calls from random numbers per month, so it doesnt get annoying. If i had more spam calls i probably would ignore them.
@@syro33 Ya. It's certainly not 100%, but it changes the number. Especially since a lot young people barely answer the phone when they know the number. I have had one of my nieces not answer when I called but texted me back immediately to see what I needed.
@@andscifi -Under 30?! Heck, I don't know anyone under 75 that answers 'unknown caller' and likely spam /scam calls! Who wants to be pestered w scammy BS and robo calls when they are usually busy, or worse finally sitting down to dinner! I block trash calls & texts DAILY!
What type of potential voter answers a cold-call? There's your polling bias right there.
The over 70 crowd. Nobody else would or does.
Polls in every swing state I can think of were biased towards democrats in 2016 and 2020. Not saying it was intentional, but it did happen. I don't see evidence that the bias was fixed since then.
Democrats did well in 22 because of the abortion issue.
Democrats did what the polls predicted nationally. The only reason dems did good in a few states is because republicans kept shooting them selves in the foot.
And that is why they will do well in 2024
@@nickb2912 not to mention the self inflicted shotgun wound of IVF banning
@@MiriOhki I haven’t seen a single person actually outraged about that after the first 48 hours. Especially since most republicans including trump support it,
@@paulwagner9788 ya buying votes definitely helps your chances.
I think the pollsters not polling enough democrats, independents and never trump voters in the polls.
Also Trump been campaigning since 2022 and Biden just now getting started
I'm in that group. Both republican and democratic pollsters have been contacting me. I will not let them know how I'm voting. And that is going to be blue no matter who. Blue voters need to be concerned and show up.
There's been some research on this. Couple of things. Older millennials are not becoming more conservative as they get older. Generation z is more liberal than millennials.
A lot of polling places call landlines and numbers in the phone book. A lot of people under 40 don't have home phones.
People under 40 are less likely to pick up the phone for unknown numbers. And therefore they're not answering for pulling organizations.
That's why the Democrats are highly underrepresented in polls.
Biden is higher than a kite in his sotu address. He can't campaign. And it's only going to get worse. We ALL REMEMBER, life was better under Trump. (Not a hard decision).
You point out how close Trump is in GA, NC, and AZ while ignoring undecided and independent voters. The way these polls are presented, as well as how polls are still conducted today, are why people have a negative view of polling. While I am in no way saying these states will vote Biden... or that a state like MI or PA won't flip for Trump instead. I'm simply saying that it's very disingenuous to point to a poll that has a 47%-43% advantage for any candidate and say "[candidate] is winning" because no, they're not. The polls also include choices like "none of the above" or "undecided". This time of year, those still a lot of undecided voters.
Who in our nation under God is possibly undecided on Trump in the year of our Lord 2024?
Perhaps there are a few souls who are not certain of their level of grudging acceptance, or pitying contempt for Joe Biden, but I’d wager even that is a small minority who are living under rocks and would probably not vote anyways.
I agree with you.
Also for NC look who the GOP wants there as governor. That is a democratic vote winner for woman, independent and even republicans.
The problem is that according to 538's polling compilation, Biden has not won a single poll against Trump in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, or even Wisconsin since before New Year's. Trump is winning all of them. Trump has never won in polls until this election. He has almost ALWAYS outperformed them. Polls that include RFK Jr. and third-parities have him winning by even larger margins. Additionally, Biden currently has a lower approval rating (-17.4 according to 538) than Trump ever had and overall perceptions on the current most talked about issues (the border and the economy) are even lower.
TL;DR Polls are much more valuable now more than ever and the Biden campaign needs to be working overtime if they want to win.
Also, one reason Trump lost in 2020 was because he (as the incumbent) was on the defensive. Now, he is on the offensive like in 2016, except this time he is against the Biden administration.
@@WeThePeoplePolitics And now voters know who both are (not popular), i think they are both on the offensive in their own ways.
Also most people (my guess) will get interested in who to vote for not that long before the elections.
I grew up in Texas, and it still surprises me that the state is red. With the high Hispanic population, it should be at least purple.
Gerrymandering, voter suppression
I'm Hispanic voting Trump ❤
The only reason to vote for Trump is because your a wealthy corporate investor who benefits from reduced taxes and deregulation. The rest of us benefit more from the govt guarding against corporate hegemony.
@@abrahamsaldana7741 then you'll be one of the first we deport
Hispanics are conservative. They work hard. They don't believe in 37 genders and drag queen storytime for children. My Spanish-speaking, immigrant mother is a Trump supporter and she was always a democrat before.
The MSM has an economic motivation to present every election as some kind of close horse race.
I remember in 2012 I bought the breathless media pundit opinion that the race could go either way. Instead Obama won easily and Mitts only flipped Indiana (which was a big surprise they went for Obama in 2008) and North Carolina. It was over early
100% agree, the motivations of the media are to be looked at with extreme scrutiny. Telling the truth is not in their best interest.
Indeed.
its better that way really. if the message is biden is gonna win easily, then more people wont bother voting. and the less people vote the more likely republascurn are to win
The CHUMP show is OVER!!!!!
GO😎😎😎😎😎😎😎
Unfortunately, this is a map for losing the Senate. But yes, I agree. This seems like the most likely outcome assuming no dramatic shifts in dynamics between now and the election. And I expect a greater likelihood of a dramatic shift against Trump than for him.
Watch Biden's chance skyrocket if RFK chooses Aaron Rogers as his runningmate.
Keep a lookout for Barbara Lee to be VP
RFK is a non factor, no threat to Biden. He's a nut and his own family doesn't support his 'Trumpian' positions. He'll draw from Trump's vote.🤡
I love your mindset of, 'the poll in this state shows Trump is ahead, but I'm going to ignore that'.
To be fair he does say that the reason is that Dems outperformed the polls in 2022 and 2023. What he gets wrong is that Joe Biden is not just "Dems." A typical Dem would trounce Trump. But Biden has unique major weaknesses. He's old verging on senility and is being held responsible for a genocide in Gaza. Michigan has a large Muslim population, no way he wins it
it shows trump is ahead currently, but those polls questions suck, also in most of them, Trump is only ahead in a plurality, and large chunks aren't sure, or are double haters. Those chunks of double haters and unsure voters tend to vote Biden...
That's a poor reason. I want to know what reason there is to ignore current polling. Local/State dynamics, voter registration difference, gerrymandering in democrat favour etc.
The polls also show Trump ahead nationally, indicating he is on track to win the popular vote. There is zero percent chance of that happening. It's fair to question the methodology of the polls when they give such absurd results.
This is not just the first rematch since 1956, this is also the second time in history that the rematch in question was the incumbent vs the predecessor, the only other time being 1892 with Grover Cleveland.
All other cases of rematches were incumbent vs who they defeated previously only, not a case of “I was the incumbent who lost, then ran again.”
1800: Jefferson vs Adams (incumbent). Adams had defeated Jefferson in 1796 previously (open election).
1828: Jackson vs Adams (incumbent). Adams had been elected via contingent election in 1824 as no one got the majority of electoral votes (though Jackson did get the most and won a plurality of the popular vote).
1840: Harrison vs Van Buren (incumbent). Harrison was one of five Whigs who ran against Van Buren in 1836, which caused Van Buren to win due to vote-splitting.
1892: Cleveland vs Harrison (Incumbent). Harrison defeated Cleveland (incumbent at the time) in the 1888 election previously (only in the electoral college, as Cleveland still won the popular vote).
1900: McKinley (incumbent) vs Bryan. McKinley had defeated Bryan in 1896 previously (open election).
1956: Eisenhower (incumbent) vs Stevenson. Eisenhower had defeated Stevenson in 1952 previously (open election).
So 2024 marks the seventh rematch.
Cleveland had won the popular vote both times, actually winning by a slightly larger margin in his "loss" than in his win.
Trump won the popular vote neither time.
@@JaDav40 That is true (and was include in the OP, albeit a lot to read), and actually Cleveland won the Popular Vote THREE times in a row (1884, 1888, 1892), a feat only done by two other individuals… Andrew Jackson (1824, 1828, 1832) and FDR (1932, 1936, 1940, 1944).
I cant see a situation where AZ votes for Biden 2020, Hobbs in 2022 and somehow suddenly goes back to voting for Lake and Trump in 2024. That seems very unlikely to me. I think personally the map will be the same as 2020 with the possible exception of GA going back to Trump by very close margins. I mean if NC ( which has been trending more purple for years) goes blue that would be another southern upset for Dems but Im not holding my breath.
2024 Trump is different from 2020 Trump as now he is on the offensive against the Biden administration and Arizona was determined by an incredibly slim 0.3% margin. Biden's best bet is on winning the blue wall and NE-2 as his polling is more favorable there and he won it by larger margins (edited) in 2020.
The problem with your estimate: Nevada NOW looks like it will probably go for Trump. The rest of the states are pretty much locked up as to who they'll vote for. The DECIDING votes will come from Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. IF Nevada goes for Trump...He will only need ONE of those 3 "swing states" to win. Right now he has solid leads in Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania is still pretty much a toss up.
Since 2020 lots of conservative red Californians moved to Las Vegas. So you are right about Nevada.
This leads me to ask the question, what is wrong with Americans who vote for Trump? Are they desperate to be in a Dictatorship or are they so uneducated that they will vote for Party over Country. Why can’t they research and see what Trump has in store for America? Just watch him do his nightly social media posts or any one of the hundreds of videos on TH-cam every day. Why would you vote for a nut case who very proudly boasted that if a NATO country was behind in their contributions he would allow Putin to “do whatever he wants to do with them” I always thought that Americans were so proud of their Democracy that anyone stating this sort of treasonous comment would not last very long in any position.
You write, "IF Nevada goes for Trump...He will only need ONE of those 3 "swing states" to win." Trump will need just ONE of those 3 "swing states" to win even if Nevada does NOT go for Trump. (270 needed to win)
But I don't know what Trump has done to improve his prospects since 2020 in those states. Boomers from all three have retired to Florida, a red state. Some anti-vaxer Trump voters in those states . . . won't be voting in 2024. And then Trump threw January 6th, which has to have lost him civic minded independents. His aura has not improved, and many think it worse.
There is no logical reason for any American to vote for an insane, treasonous, Hitler wannabe. Are they not watching his crazy rants at every opportunity he gets? Do they not remember Jan 6th? Do they not remember him calling dead and captured soldiers “losers and suckers”. Just to mention a couple of stand out moments even though the list is endless. As an Australian who has watched this pathetic excuse for a human for 7 years I am dismayed by the fact you put him in the WH in the beginning and now you are discussing whether he can win or not. Believe me, the world is laughing at you and hoping common sense will prevail and patriotism will win over evil.🇦🇺🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇸
I wouldn’t write off AZ yet. We’re almost assuredly going to get abortion rights initiative on the ballot in November (we have a dem as Secretary of State so no republican there to try to stop it). With abortion rights on the ballot (it will win by at least 20 points) that will drive Dems and dem leaning independents to the polls in November and Biden will benefit. It will be close but Biden wins AZ again is my prediction
YAY! I hope NV goes BLUE too. It's not solid red, and could easily go BLUE. Every Dem and fed up never Trumper needs to GOTV to make it so! ☑
I really don’t understand how you disagree with pretty much every political analyst about Michigan.
He is a democrat activist, he ignors all these bad Biden numbers.
Michigan is a toss up, take out Wayne and Kent County and Michigan is like Kentucky.
this is a very different election than 2020. we lost a million voters to the pandemic and there have been 4 years of 18 year olds being eligible and registered to vote.
What website is this to have this interactable map?
You should make a video about Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House, which got every election correct since 1984. There’s an online tool you can use for it called 13 Keys Tracker
Have they made a prediction for this election yet?
From how far out? It's an odd thing to say when 2000 was decided by hanging chads and a refusal to do any real audits or recounts despite razor thin margins and extreme ballot irregularity.
@@ilikespaghetti4458 he said that it is too early to tell, however lichtman said "A lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election."
He was wrong with the 2000 prediction when he said Al Gore would win.
@@algregory6597to be fair 2000 was extremely close and basically came down to a 5-4 Supreme Court ruling, Al Gore did win the popular vote including in the state that cost him the election due to recount shenanigans so he realistically should've won
The more people see of Joe Biden, the more they like. The more people see of Donald Trump, the less they like.
Cope
Is that why Biden’s numbers went down after his state of the union speech?
In a nutshell!
That is not true at all.
The opposite is true. That's why they hide Biden and that's why he doesn't do press conferences.
This is the third one of these map videos that I have watched. One had Trump at 315 electoral votes, and the other had him at 319. We will have to see.
Polls predict next to nothing this early, unless they're like +20 for one candidate. Biden was up +15 in some polls in feb 2020 and won by +4-5 I believe.
It's going to show what a joke the electoral college is a guy like trump can lose by millions of votes and still take office. People have also forgotten how bad a president trump was
It's a hold over from the days right after emancipation proclamation
Runs through the rust belt (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) and sun belt (Nevada, Arizona and Georgia)
All voting for Trump ❤
He doesn't need Georgia and Arizona to win, but he does need the others.
@@LarryLopez91 If Biden wins Wi MI PA and Nebraska's 2nd, he wins. He can lose GA, he can lose AZ, he can even lose NV unexpectedly; he will still be at 270 electoral votes.
The sun belt will be a very difficult battle for Biden; he should remain focused on the rust belt because if Trump gets Pennsylvania (he is looking very likely to win Georgia), he wins.
One ignored factor in the Rust Belt: a lot of retirees have moved to Florida especially (and to other states like South Carolina to a much lesser extent) and they tend to be heavily red. That has made Florida redder, but could hurt Trump badly in WI, MI and PA.
If only we just had a popular vote…
The months leading up to the 2020 election was a nerve racking experience because we were all homebound, and I (like many others) were doomscrolling on Twitter and looking at polls. But the stakes are even higher this time - and not just for the US. So, volunteer, write postcards to swing state voters, donate, talk to friends and family. Do what you can to help re-elect Biden and down ballot Dems in national and local races.
Interesting analysis. Thank you.
All Biden has to do is
1 - play the clip of Trump bragging about destroying Roe on a loop 24/7
2 - not die
All Hillary did during her campaign was play ads featuring trump's despicable behavior. How did that work out for her?
@@krnpowrthe difference between the two is that Trump’s actions that Hillary outlined, while despicable, affected small numbers of women. Him destroying Roe is personal to literally millions of women.
"President Trump" sounds so wrong..
Just call him Trump
Or tramp.
I like the 45th and 47th President, President Trump.
@@MyDyerMaker what do you like best about him? The lying? The fraud? The treachery? His attitude to women? Or the racism?
@DanBeech-ht7sw He's the most honest and direct President in my lifetime. He did more and sacrificed more for this country than any President in the last 30 years.
Whereas Biden would be looking at his watch repeatedly as flag-draped coffins were unloaded from a plane, Trump would be grieving with the families and actually care. There's a reason the military loves Trump and there's a reason the media and men who pee sitting down hate him.
Good analysis but needs to be updated given the recent abortion related legal decisions in AZ and FL and the abortion ballots in other states. AZ will almost certainly go to Biden now as a result of the AZ Supreme Court banning abortion. FL is now a toss-up given their Supreme Court's decision to ban abortion after 6 weeks.
I think the polls might be less underestimating Dems and more overestimating Republicans: I think more Right-leaning voters died during Covid, and that might be skewing their calculations as a lot of these polls are aggregated off of census data taken before the pandemic
You're not accounting for a No Labels candidate and RFK on ballots in several swing states. That will make the margins even closer in states that were very close in 2020. In 2016, along with Clinton & Trump, 2 additional parties had candidates on several states' ballots and those votes were the difference in Trump's win. That same scenario is slowly forming now...
Rfk hurts trump with the crank vote
@@davidrichman9779In just about every single poll that includes RFK, Trump wins by larger margins than he does without RFK.
My pathway to eating apple is easier than you think
My pathway to your butthole is easier than you think
@@greyghost2492it’s as red as this apple 🍎
Love this reply section
wat
Prove the polls wrong my friend
Why anyone would vote for the end of democracy and installing a dictatorship is beyond me.
What has happened to America?
Greed and jealousy 🫥
The whole country has gone to shit and people are fed up with it...need change!!!!!
I love these videos, but it infuriates me how we have this stupid Electoral College. It's such nonsense. It wastes votes which go for the winner in states which vote for the loser, and it creates these bizarre scenarios where someone who gets the second-largest number of total votes can win. Hypothetically speaking, if only one person voted in the largest twelve states, and those twelve people voted for the same candidate, and then all the millions of voters in the other 38 states turned out and voted for the other person, the candidate with the twelve single votes from the twelve largest states would have a majority of the Electoral College, and would win. That will never happen, of course, but the fact is that someone should only win with twelve votes if they are in 1st place and the next person gets eleven or fewer votes.
Electorial college allows EVERYONE to have a voice-- you REALLY think if it was a popular vote, Trump wouldn't go to California or New York? Flip some votes and win th majority EASY!!! (Sounds good to me in fact).
@@jackdundon2261 How does the EC give all-caps "everyone" a voice? If you vote for Trump in a state that Biden wins, then whether Trump or Biden wins overall, your vote counts for precisely nothing. The EC only counts votes from candidates who win in states where they win.
And what's wrong with the majority of people deciding what should happen? How is giving the minority the decision an improvement? No system is perfect, but the EC is garbage.
The population of Los Angeles is greater than 40 individual states. The electoral college makes perfect sense.
@@MyDyerMaker But it's not greater than 40 states put together. And even if it were, that's where the people are. The EC makes it so that large numbers of people count less than they should and fewer people (but only certain ones in certain places) count more than they should. By the EC logic, why not break LA up into seven or eight states, which would all have three EC votes each and two senators each? What makes the random small numbers in, say, Delaware special, but not random small numbers of people in certain county of Texas or Florida? The EC makes no sense at all.
@lucasjames7524 I disagree. Democrats destroy everything they touch- from women's sports to entire cities and states. I'd rather not have them change our Constitution and destroy it too.
On paper it seems super easy for Joe, but don't *ever* get complacent. VOTE in November!
on PAPER it seems extremely tough for biden though :/
On paper he has zero chance of winning.
Wtf are you voting for? Is it because he said you wouldn't be black I'd you didn't vote for him. Or do you think you'll be the second black American Biden finds smart and clean
I will be voting for trump for the first time
@@mmmmmmmmmmmmokay9819 AWESOME! im voting for the first time in my life for DJT in November, already voted early in LA's primary (the state)
What website/application do you use to create that map
Fascinating. Can you provide regular updates as we near the election?
I think it's important to point out that Trump has been underperforming at the ballot box in the primaries, to an average of about 8.5% below where the polling before voting said he should be. If that trend holds, then Biden wins by an even larger margin than what you have here.
And biden hasn't been underperforming?
@@mmmmmmmmmmmmokay9819 true, but there're some big differences. The uncommitted vote was larger than expected, but never amounted to as large an underperfomance as Trump has experienced. Prior to Hailey dropping out, Trump has been averging around 70% of the vote in primaries, Biden never dropped below that in any of his primaries, and is averaging above 85% of the vote. Hell, Trump even lost a couple primaries to Hailey. Also, Trump is underperforming with the center and center right, who could end up either not voting or switching votes to Biden. Biden is only underperforming with the far left, who might sit out but won't switch votes. In multiple exit polls from primaries, a little bit under 10% of Hailey's voters said they would consider supporting Biden over Trump in the general. Virtually none of the uncommitted voters in the democratic primary exit polling said they would support Trump over Biden.
I think that a lot of the uncommiteds will vote for Biden in November, this primary vote was a way to make an important statement but they would not want Trump to win again. He is hardly a friend to Muslims! @@ianlandseadel9989
i dread the 269-269 result where nevada and the district in Nebraska voting red... imagine a Trump-Harris Outcome in the congress... sounds like an interesting 4 years...
Republicans will always win an election decided in the House. It's 1 state, 1 vote, so California and Wyoming get equal say.
@@JaDav40 president is decided by house, vice president is decided by senate
@@SpookyShimmerIn the Senate, all states already have equal say on everything.
Great breakdown. :)
How does the 3rd party candidates factor in?
Just imagine how Trump will act if the 2024 election results are like those of the 2016 election, but with him in Clinton's position (more popular votes but fewer electoral votes):
> Clinton - 65,844,954 (48.2%) of popular votes, and 277 electoral votes
> Trump - 62,979,879 (46.1%) of popular votes, and 304 electoral votes
Cool to see him throw a HUGE hissy fit, complete w throwing ketchup, and making threats to everyone in sight. Lots of laughs for the next 50 yrs!
BUT he'd NEVER WIN the POPULAR vote! No R can anymore, and they know it! No policies, they only care about the 1% and themselves. 🤑🤡
Cool to see him throw a HUGE toddler fit, complete w throwing ketchup, and making threats to everyone in sight. Lots of laughs for the next 50 yrs!
BUT he'd NEVER WIN the POPULAR vote! No R can anymore, and they know it! No policies, they only care about the 1% and themselves. 🤑🤡
Good news! We in Europe are in massive danger too if Trump gets in.. please please vote blue!
The entire world is in danger if Trump gets back in. Global alliances turn on their head.
Yes, because if Trump wins, you must pay your fair share in taxes.
How?
No. Trump 2024
@@Nawfmem901 Trump would let Putin run roughshod over Europe.
Democrats are lucky to have such a charismatic, well spoken candidate as Joe Biden🤣🤣🤣
How about we refer to him as former President Trump?
Defendant trump!
No. King Trump
@@JesusOrDestruction 🤣🤣🤣 King of bullshit 🤣
dunno I think #PO1135809 has a nice ring to it, but that is just me😉
@@JesusOrDestructionyou dorks do love having someone tell you what to do and letting them step all over you 😂😂
Like how do you think that’s a flex to be ruled by another grown man 😂
sounds a little uhh.. kinky.. wanting another man to rule your life 🤮
Sorry, don’t mean to kink shame, but those tiny hands and all.. 😂😂😂
The Michigan one is deceptive. Some people were against Biden because of Israel/Palestine. But in the general election, they'll vote for Biden.
It's not like Trump is any friend of Palestinians. He loves rightwing thugs like the Israeli PM.
Many will stay home or vote 3rd party.
@@nicolaiashworth-wojcik-ji1ty Yeah, if the Michigan Arab-American population thinks that Biden (who already struggles with voter enthusiasm) is assisting in the genocide of Palestinians, they would likely just stay home and relax.
@@nicolaiashworth-wojcik-ji1ty If they care that much about Palestine, they'll remember Trump as the "Muslim ban" guy.
@@camicawber to bad no one ever banned Muslims.
fun fact: this is the first election since 1912 where two candidates were previously president, and is the first election since 1892 where the two candidates were both seeking a second term, and also the first election since then where they were from the two main parties (Teddy in 1912 was bullmoose)
What do you think about the growing progress in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact?
Signed the PETITION and hope many more will! I'd post a link, but YT censors must like the EC sham we are stuck with! Glad we are about 71% of the way to dismantling the unfair and obsolete EC method! Best part is Moscow Mitch and his extremists CAN'T stop it from taking effect once done!
They said the same thing about Hilary. Be sure to vote!
You had back then Trump running for president Hillary and the independent Bernie Sanders. the people that didn't like Hillary voted for Bernie and people that like Bernie❤ so basically the votes between Bernie and Hillary were splits and Trump won the presidency that year .
@@ruthpullis9279Bernie wasn’t in the ballot genius
@@JesusOrDestruction Bernie was on the ballots I voted for Bernie in Virginia.
In Virginia when we voted that year we had Hillary Clinton the Democrat Donald Trump the Republican Party the libertarian Gary Johnson from saying his name right we had the G which is Jill Stein other Bernie Sanders.
Here's my problem in the 2024 election we have Trump running for president has the Republican Party we have Biden running for Democrat and now we have an independent JFK when I go to vote is the Question. This is very hard .
VOTE 💙 🇺🇲 ☝️
Vote TRUMP - lower taxes on the working man. Stop inflation!
Yes yes yes! I really hope Trump wins, USA was better of, when Trump was president Russia attacked no one, when Bush was president Russia attacked Georgia, when Obama was president they took crimia, and Biden they attack ukrane as a whole@@jackdundon2261
@@jackdundon2261Much rather have to pay higher taxes than losing the civil rights of my dear comrades 🏴🟫⚒️🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️🕊️🌸💙
Arizona former Dem rejecting Biden!!!!!
I really hope we see you on TV soon talking about politics. I think you have a big future ahead of you
We’re going to win! A vote for Biden is a vote for America. A vote for Trump is a vote for tyranny. We Americans love democracy, equality, and decency.
if biden signs the tiktok ban, im voting trump
I think I’ve seen this one before… And I DID like the ending!
HAHAHA YESSSSSSS i get the referencei ❤ ts
MAGA!
Hillary still had many more votes. The factors in 2024 are also very different than those in 2016.
Keep up the good work! Your speed of speech is perfect at 0,75x 😊
Damn, first rematch since Eisenhower vs. Adlai Stevenson. Difference is people actually liked Eisenhower and Stevenson
Am I the only one who has noticed a strong shift toward predictions favorable to Democrats since the SOTU?
Nope, not the only one. And as for the protest vote, while it is concerning I highly doubt that too many of Michigan's Arab vote won't ultimately fall in line upon realizing the alternative is someone who would LOVE to camp them on day one and whose party spent the months following the invasion of Gaza trying their level best to make criticizing it on their states' college campuses illegal, especially now that Biden seems to have started listening to them (somewhat).
@@badpiggies988Trump 2024🇺🇸
Bidens state of the union didn't help him at all
@@AdolfSpongler01delusional
@@badpiggies988 If there was a threat to his re-election, it wasn't from crossover votes, it was that some might stay home. But mostly it was to send a message, and it worked. Biden can't give them everything they want, it is not in his power, but he has definitely responded to their voice.
PA, Mich, Wis plus Nebraska 2nd =270.
Assuming no faithless electors
All voting for Trump 🇺🇸
He does an excellent job of synthesizing the data. A real student from Maryland... he makes me proud as a teacher in this state. Keep up the good work.
Like the data that has Trump destroying Biden?
What about the 101k uncommitted vote and loss of the Muslim community in Michigan for Biden?
🤥🥸😂
I'm already going to vote but man seeing how close trump is yet again it's sad