Democrats and Republicans have p1ss3d off the 110 MILLION AMERICANS left in this country. They better prepare to be held accountable and prepare for a lesson that history will never forget!
@@crispinfornoff206this year they do 😂 anyone who can think at all, Independently or otherwise, knows "blue" is better than the other "option" which is "fake red"
Wondering? This is a country that has the highest number of flat earthers, people who believe that one day zombies will rise and in order to prepare for it, you need to build fortified fortress. A country that has more mass shootings per year than the days in calendar and the only wondering you can come up is what did those kindergarten do to piss off someone to go to his armory and started spraying children with bullets. That is the dumbest country..
Israel and Ukraine. Both wars very few people support funding for. So Biden voters don't even want to answer the question. Meanwhile Trump supporters are always active
Every person I know in Canada, which is many, says exactly that to me, they wonder what in the world are people thinking in the United States who would vote for Trump.
And why would they vote for Biden @@brenrenn8306. Considering under Trump, no wars , no inflation, no border crisis, safer country. Yeah I dunno. FJB. Trump 2024
They’re also incredibly inaccurate because of the demographics likely to answer them, and as well as people trolling the polls saying they’re pro trump even if they aren’t
Biden is failing short term economy /long term economy/ incumbent charisma/ social unrest/ foreign/military failure/ and foreign military success that’s 6 right there and RFK might be in the polls that’s 7/ the man and himself is a scandal and his family as well so is trump, what keys does he have success with party mandate ? Given.contest . Given incumbency . Given and no policy change cause he doesn’t have a policy to begin with. I’m and independent voter leaning RFK or not voting , I see a lot of bad keys for Biden than Trump and that’s simply a man that at pro Israel and pro palistinian rally’s both saying F Joe Biden.. both sides of the protesters are chanting it.. just like everyone else wants a better economy less inflation less spending , ppl want what we had in 2016-2020 over what they have now and you don’t have to be a republican to think that. My 2 cents .
This doesn’t make sense. He says he was right in 2000 because Gore won the popular vote, but then he was also right in predicting trump in 2016 - when of course Clinton won the popular vote
@@clintbronson5 What's your reason? Mine... I don't trust deJoy. He continues to make a mess of the post office. Our state is only vote by mail, in emergency we can get ballot at voting office, like when post office had to be addressed for not delivering some... we have no issues, except since deJoy hot involved, with decades of the process, and most of us return our ballots to the drop box instead of mailing them back.
He says he was really correct about 2000 because of the popular vote. Yet doesn’t use the popular vote in other cases like 2016 to say he was wrong. Pure nonsense
Apparently he says that after 2000 he changed his election model to reflect the electoral college not the popular vote but I don't buy it. Sounds like an excuse for getting 2000 wrong
Exactly. And if anyone had to explain to him that popular vote has only indirect bearing (unless you get 100%), then he should not be making predictions.
Polls do have meaning and value and usually at least one gets it right. Which one? Well your guess is as good as mine; though ones where no human contact is present are more reliable if people are voting on something with a political stigma. I mean would you want to admit to a stranger that you support Trump? Candidates have to adapt in relation to polling activity to ignore would be to court failure for sure.
Yes! and I tell them I'm voting for painfully slow FJB. Even though there is no way in hell I'd ever vote for him. And democrats think the race is close . . . lol.
@@azul8811 As an independent as much as Trump gets on my nerves if Biden wins we are in DEEP trouble, the 44.6% capital gains tax thats will be the highest in 100 years is enough to make large business owner pack up and move their company and their jobs to another country, people will not be able to leave their homes to their family members anymore, any money that is made in the stock market even on 401k investments the government will get half, in some states as high as 57%, people are so caught up in Trumps drama because the media talks about it 24/7 because they need you to vote for the party that is going to make them even wealthier which is Biden, it will make the rich even richer and the poor even poorer creating dependency on the government.
WRONG! Elections have been rigged since the beginning. We only have the illusion of choice. If elections were free and fair the senile pedo dotard puppet we have now wouldn't be in office.
@fultonbenjamin9022 He was never ahead in the polls in 2016 or 2020 so that's all you need and it's leftwing news doing the polls so they're actively looking for Biden supporters, so it might be more like 65% for Trump
@@andrewpeters5145 for sure, but like I said often,not always. Also it’s important to know who’s doing the polling and reporting on it and why. Very often the “news” media that caters to a given demographic designs and conducts polls that are basically an echo chamber if you will that provide the “news” they want. Mom used to say, “liars figure and figures lie”🤪
Just watch his weekly livestreams on his TH-cam channel. He talks at length about different topics and it's not always with people like on here asking him why Biden is losing.
100% me too. I remember when he said that Trump would win in 2016, when no one else thought that he would (I actually hoped he was wrong that year lol). I remember when he said that Biden would win in 2020.
@@ndo533 He has not officially predicted this year. He said that he will provide his official prediction in August. (His official predictions always occur in the fall before the election when there is enough final information/results). He did say that so far things are looking in favor of Biden, but that could change between now and then.
He's clearly wrong. Biden could win. But Trump is clearly more likely to win at this point in time. Immigration, inflation, RFK's high polling, and widespread incompetence and senility are destroying Biden's odds. If Trump is convicted of a felony, which seems likely, it will likely pull down his numbers. It's easy to sit on the sidelines with your magic system and pretend you know something that everyone else doesn't when you actually know less. Then if you happen to be right, like any child could be, you claim your magic system works, and a bunch of retards on social media will believe you are a guru because they don't understand that successfully betting on an outcome when you already have information is neither random nor difficult. Biden's economy is like Jimmy Carter's...people are unlikely to reward that.
Lmagazine’s cover of “madam president”?). However, it would appear that he is stating unofficially that sleepy/crooked Joe will win in the upcoming election. As in 2020 when there were more voters who hated Trump
He is very wrong about what he was saying in the video. How is biden “shaky” in only 4 of the keys??? He completely glanced over short and long term economy!! Worst inflation rates in my lifetime! He glanced over policy change!!! Where was the promised student loan forgiveness? Scandal?? You mean like the one with his family and their overseas “business deals”. Foreign AND military failures up the wazoo. And he has the charisma of a potato. American society has been in social unrest since the pandemic. Which of these keys has he actually won???
@@gbluesky4264oh yea, that’s right! Electrocal ‘I am not American and I don’t give a F about spelling’ And most favorite vote system❗️ To my European Ears that really sounds like one of the most Not-Democracy things I’ve ever heard❗️
Initially, I thought this comment wasn't truly from you, but after going to the associated channel, I believe it's you. Sir, it seems you are more often right and perhaps even never wrong. I hope your streak doesn't stop now. The consequences could be horrific.
@@AllanLichtmanTH-cam I cant understand why anyone would vote for Biden. Things are bad in America and around the world, I'm still angry about us getting defeated in Afghanistan.
@@richardk6196The consequences of Joe getting another 4 years to plunge the world even further into w4r and r3cession are the ones we should be afraid of. I genuinely don’t think our country would survive it.
@@suziecue3027 Also I don't trust polls because just like there are troll farms meant to influence social media, there are troll farms designed to influence polling data as well. Actual Elections are the only REAL polling that counts.
@@JohnReilly-r4j But since 2016, polls have become big busine$$ and just another way to spread disinformation. If there are troll farms wreaking havoc on social media, what makes you think troll farms aren't also corrupting poll data?! And even without trolls, polling data is way to easy to bend to a narrative. I.E.: '75% of voters who are in the top 2% of early voting and rank 5% of the northeast region of so and so . .' - which is why many poll results have very fine print at the bottom of their published data. And we all know what fine print means.
The polls predicted Hillary would win. They said it so much that it almost sounded like a done deal. Then, people got turned off from them for a while... surprised that they are back.
The Social Unrest key should not turn because the protests are small relative to the 350 million people who live in the country. They seem bigger than they are because of our wonderful media (sarcasm intended).
The protests aren't as large now as they were in 2020, but if you think these are 'small' you are not paying attention, but also underestimating the effect it may have on the election. Especially given the fact they are like a week only and completely spontaneous, but they are only getting bigger, not smaller. And with the police forces sending in riot gear, literal military equipment, and even snipers to sit on rooftops, I would be willing to guess they are only going to get bigger as time passes. That isn't to say that these will still be happening in November 2024, but the idea these are small is just stupid. That also doesn't even get into what the Democratic convention in Chicago is going to look like this summer, assuming that Biden's policy of aiding and abetting Israel with their ethnic cleansing of Palestine is still occurring. Nobody knows what exactly will happen, but the Social Unrest key should absolutely 100% turn against him and if you think otherwise you are living in a bubble and deluding yourself of what people in the real world actually think about this current policy. Don't aid in handing the election to Trump by underestimating how bad Biden's policy is on this issue... all Trump has to do is lie to the public, fake-position himself to the left of Biden, and say that 'he will bring peace' and he probably steals just enough votes to win some swing states. This issue is costing Biden the election and EVERY single piece of polling data says it is. Even if you think the opinion polls are 'fake' or are a dozen points off, which has literally never happened before in the history of polling and is an Alex Jones level conspiracy theory- even if the polls are off by a dozen points Biden is still UNDERWATER to the point where he may not even win the popular vote like he did in 2020.
@@Black_CaucusLoL, people protesting isn't unrest. The summer of love under the trump administration during Co-Vid was social unrest. What we have now is another occupy Wall Street. That didn't hurt Obama one bit.
@@Black_CaucusBut what I don't get is, everyone knows perfectly well that Trump is pro Israel and anti Muslim. They must know that under Trump it would be much much much worse for Gaza. And if he lied about it, if he criticized Israel in the least he would lose the Evangelicals, who have this weird thing about Israel and Jesus' coming or something ( the Rapture I think they call it). So it just doesn't make sense to me that anyone would vote for Trump thinking he would help Gaza.
This is why I like Professor Lichtman...gets right to the point, doesn't spoil anything...he's a distinguished professor and you normally trust people like him.
He argues he was right in 2000 because of popular vote, but wouldn't that make him wrong in 2016? This guy is knowledgeable but I don't know these "keys" apply every election... this feels different today.
@@hebronharvester1487 With how ridiculously close the 2000 election was (Gore lost because of a handful of votes in a state where his opponent's brother was the governor), I wouldn't hold it against him. And he did predict a Trump victory in 2016.
@samenders1074 he's a smart guy, don't get me wrong. I just can't give him credit for 2000. I also think that the keys in 2024 are going to be radically different than any other election. He also hasn't even considered the 3rd party key as RFK Jr. Is making noise... the economy was liked by many under Trump... hard to see every key applying in this election.
@samenders1074 by the way, I'm not being one-sided here. I'm just saying he correctly predicted 2016 with the same fault he disregarded in 2000. That's not a reliable outcome. He's been right every other time but this election I feel is different
I say this to myself every time. A lot are still done via phone. Younger folks don't have land lines and are at work during the day. Retired boomers have landlines.
I mean, they count anything as a poll, if you donate to someone’s campaign, you are contributing to the poll, if you vote for someone, that contributes to a poll.
It is now known that Al Gore won in Florida and thus had more electoral points in addition to the popular vote, but this recount was after the fact by a non-governmental organization. If you recall, the Republican Supreme Court blocked an official recount in Florida in December 2000, whereas it permitted THREE recounts in Georgia after the 2020 election.
I don’t remember Gore jumping up and down claiming the election was stolen from him (which it was by Jeb Bush). Gracefully, he allowed the transition of power to occur.
That is an outright lie. It is NOT known. The actual recount that was in progress which the Supreme Court blocked would have given Bush the win in 3 of the 4 standards for what constitutes a vote for President, including the standard that was most widely used by States with defined standards. So even if the recount had finished, Bush wins. This count was only looking at Ballots that didn't have a vote for President. A later study that included Under Votes (no vote for President) and Over Votes (votes for more than one Presidential candidate) showed that Gore would have won by two of the considered standards and Bush would have won by two of the considered standards, including the most widely used standard. There was one later study that looked at statewide uncounted votes that would give Gore a slight lead if they looked at Under votes (no vote for President) and Over Votes (votes for more than 1 Presidential Candidate). Gore NEVER requested looking at ballots that had more than one vote for President. It was never ordered by the Florida Supreme Court. It was never seriously under consideration. The only thing considered were ballots without a vote for President to determine if there was an intention to vote for President. When those statewide ballots were looked at Bush still won (but by lower than the official margin). Only when you looked at Ballots where people voted for more than one candidate did that one study determine Gore would have won. To say it is "known" that Al Gore won Florida is either an outright lie or you are incredibly stupid.
So absolutely true, and tragic! There really needs to be a true documentary about this. Sad that this is being forgotten and overlooked. TrumpLoses by thousands in different states and people still think it was rigged......how far we have fallen as nation.
If Biden wins your country is fucked. Get off his payroll and help your country. Just admit trump is the answer and the left couldn't run a bath.@@phrogme2450
I believe it was the philosopher Cliff Clavin (from TV show Cheers) who said, "If you go back in history and take every President, you'll find that the numerical value in each of their names, was equally divisble into the year in which they were elected. By my calculations, our next President has to be named... Yelnik McWawa".
Who used landlines in 1936? Demographics skewed toward the wealthy. That's how the Literary Digest picked Alf Landon, and went out of business not long after.
You won't know America if he becomes president again I hope he is WRONG! Okay, you think everything is high now ha you haven't seen high. And if America wants to vote for this old man that falls and can't read a teleprompter fine but I'm not sinking with this ship✈️
@becks3709 yes, but Trump won the electoral vote. He predicted Gore would win in 2000 based on popular vote, so there isn't consistency. Can't have it one way and then a different way the next time. Whichever one you give him, he was wrong on the other.
@jacobstravail I'm actually never said I was a Trumper, yet you go accusing me of that just because I dissent. 2000, he claimed it was a popular vote and then walked back his claim... he was wrong in 2000, which means 2016 is arguably wrong, one or the other... you can't have it both ways. That being said, he had it right every other time. But he hasn't been 100% correct. Has nothing to do with Trump. My overall point is I would not just trust him that Biden will win. You still gotta go out and vote. There's gonna be a time he will be wrong.
The problem isn’t lack of money, food, land or water. The problem is you’ve given control of these things to a group of psychopaths and their families who care more about maintaining there power than helping mankind- Bill Hicks 1961-1994 There are a lot more of us than there are of them. Don’t forget who the people of this country are. Us. The truth is going to come out this year. I promise.
I agree with you and Bill Hicks. Can you point me to a general source or idea of what gives you reason to be confident it will be this year? I understand if you’d rather not. This year sounds good to me!
@@Alexadria205 True. The economy is way better than 4 years ago. Unemployment is at record lows. The public perception of those is a different story. Many say that they miss the economy of Trump, but in reality, the economy 4 years ago was a disaster. And due to Trump's mishandling of Covid, people were desperate to find things as basic as toilet paper. I've spoken to some nice, well-intentioned people who thought that many of Biden's great achievements were actually Trump. They get their news from Tic-Toc and TH-cam. Hard to combat that.
One big issue here is that the economy, both long term and short term, is strong. But people seem to think it isn't. Currently six of his points are false, giving Trump a win. If RFK drops out, it's five, giving Biden a win. But if we factor in that people seem to believe that the economy sucks, then currently eight points are false, giving Biden zero chance.
@@RegebroRepairs It’s the debt that is the problem 35T$. Biden wants 7T$ budget for 2025 from 4T$, plus’s raising capital gains taxes from 15% to 46.5%. Finance the debt will take 1.5T$ Add everything together US goes into recession maybe depression.
@@RegebroRepairs claiming that the economy is doing well or bad is moot without defining your indicators of economic health. In traditional market based measures of economic success we are successful while when looking at individual economic conditions the reality becomes far more grey.
He says his method only predicts the popular vote and that’s why he got 2000 wrong, but he predicted Trump in 2016 but he lost the popular vote. So either way it’s a flawed system.
Except Trump didn't lose the popular vote when you eliminate all the ballot stuffing and unconfirmed suitcases of votes for Biden that suddenly appeared at 3 in the morning.
The reason for this discrepancy is that he changed his style of prediction. Gore lost in 2000 due to the electoral college. Lichtman decided to start calling the winner of the electoral college, not just the winner of the popular vote.
He 100% accurately predicted 2000, Gore won both electoral and popular at end of the day, the unlawful business in Florida was later found out to be that Gore won the state
The popular vote doesn't matter in the national election for President. It's going to be decided by voters in a few dozen counties in 5 key battleground States. It's actually very ridiculous when you think about it.
Votes aren't enough this time: a few red states will withhold certification for Biden, he won't reach 270 electoral votes and (per the Constitution) it goes to one vote per state and (R)s hold the majority. This has happened twice before in US history.
Agree. The voting system is structured so that the minority has a better chance of winning than the majority. It is rigged at the onset, so that just in case.....
Oh course they do. If it looked like a landslide, their voters would stay home thinking it doesn’t matter their candidate has got it already. They keep saying Trump is leading in the polls and it will send Biden supporters out in droves because if they don’t vote he will lose.
*She typically tends to be a bit detached. Her descriptive coverage of the man in front of the Trump building was a bit bizarre. She also has shown her own agenda in her reporting.*
She's a political commentator/pundit. This sort of thing is good for television. She's not seriously expecting an answer and knows there isn't one but it's entertaining to see the back and forth.
its all their agenda to mind control.people to vote their agenda. So they lie, lie, lie... lie out their stinky arse to the public. CNN has the lowest ratings of reporting truthful news... go calculate that.
I have been watching this guy predict election after election in advance and he is always right. Genius method, I’m not sure how he came up with this system of prediction.
He went to Harvard and specialized in history and quantitative methods. He combined those skills to figure out how to predict elections. I’ve been watching him election after election also. He has books.
@@JimDandy-rn4vd Why Vegas? He gets appearance fees and book residuals that surge every four years; that's much better than whatever Vegas could give him. And it's illegal to gamble on political elections.
…I’m guessing that 2024 will be his 2nd “miss” ( Most Americans will just not accept his “passing” on debates-no matter what excuse his staff make, it will be seen as confirmation of his mental decline )
One of your mistakes is probably thinking that predictions are binary. Statistics is sometimes about the chance that something is true, or the chance that something will happen.
@@danielnils3 If everyone flips coins nune times about I in 300 people will predict all nine elections correctly. If 300 million people flip coins nine times about a million people will predict all nine elections correctly. The chances that the number who predict the election correctly will be zero instead of a million is far, far lower than 1%. Almost certainly not even one ten thousandth of a percent.
I guessed a coin flip 10 times in a row once. So that's true. 1 chance in 1024. I also guessed two cards off the top of a deck once. That's 1 in 2704. I must be even more psychic than Lichtman. Seriously, it just happens. His criteria seem simplistic, and the keys are all afforded equal weight. Public sentiment (and voting) is not binary, and may not even be consistent if the public was allowed to re-do the vote a week later. I'm pretty sure that apathy and overconfidence played a big part in the Hillary vs Trump election. People voted for 3rd party candidates just to make a comment, then woke up to a horror that they wished they could repair.
we'll see 😉 I call it: Biden will win by a slight [and or small] majority. I'm talking about the electoral college, but Biden too will win the vote- although this could be won by even a slighter majority.
I think an important thing to note about this election is how unique it is. This is the first time in 130 years where two US Presidents have run against each other, meaning we know how both candidates would govern. Lichtmans model has an impressive track record but as the 2000 election shows, it ain't perfect. This is an election i wouldnt be surprised for him to be wrong on.
@@highvibrational There is no conclusive evidence that Gore would have won had the recount continued. Pretending that there is to make Lichtman look good is just dumb.
@@TheJoeschmoe777 It was the closest election in modern American history. If any election was ‘stolen’ it was the 2000 election. The Florida Secretary of state was Republican, the Supreme Court was controlled by Republicans, and the governor of the state was Jeb Bush. Gore lost because of voting machine errors and the fact that Florida had a time limit on recounts and failed to establish statewide uniform criteria for hand recounts.
@@TheJoeschmoe777 Before 2000 he only predicted who would win the popular vote, which before 2000 only twice had the candidate won without winning the popular vote. After 2000 this disparity has largely shifted as to democrats normally have the majority in popular vote, which is why after 2000 he only decided who would win electoral college.
@@alpbridges3553 But how in the world can he predict a different outcome with the exact same method? And anyway, that only proves my point. 2000 was a very unique election the likes of which Lichtman has never had to predict before. So it is with this one. Not since the post Civil War era have two Presidents run against each other. Lichtmans never had to predict an election like this before so he could very possibly get it wrong.
How many people were polled and from what regions? What were the exact questions asked? I heard none of that in this video. I should have seen an explanation of the poll flash on the screen.
A lot of these polls have only 2,000 people if they're lucky. Which is a tiny amount of people. You can find out this information. Polls have regularly been polling demographics more likely to vote Trump. Most polls are conducted over landlines. (What person under 35 has a landline, or answers a call from an unknown number.) Maine had a poll that put Trump ahead by 6. Except that 53% of respondents were Male. Women in Maine outvote men by 6 to 4. This is the case across the polls. They're deliberately weighted towards Trump.
They don't care about the details of the polls. It's a talking point. Then they drag experts on air to "discuss". "See? We did our work! Now give me my millions in pay. Jesus, what a job.
@jamesrowden303 Exactly. Trump supporters, Kennedy supporters cannot wait to tell people who they support and why. Biden supporters are more circumspect. In any case. Things like disapproval are highly inaccurate indicators of voting intention. It would not surprise me to learn that a significant proportion of people who disapprove of Biden intend to vote for him anyway because Trump is the alternative.
@@audiophiliac Because under Trump economy was better under Trump border closed under Trump less crimes under Trump no war under Trump it won’t have any protesters at the college. Under Biden gas grocery inflation loan car house etc. people are not stupid they had a better life under Trump. It cost me 14K more under Biden now… Because of his policies. No Biden.
Democrat ads should focus on what TFG's presidency was really like. People are forgetting. How he enriched himself and signed executive orders that benefited him personally. Remember his cosying up to dictators and nations that would love nothing better than America's fall and ostracizing America's allies. Not forgetting his atrocious negligent response to the pandemic as it swept across the country claiming tens of thousands of lives and his only concern was how the numbers looked "Trump said he wants to keep Grand Princess cruise passengers on the ship so that US coronavirus numbers don't 'double.' " You gotta remind people of how awful he was at the job. He's campaigning as if he's the new politician on the block. He ain't, he's already been round it once. #NeverForget
Its not hard, people look at their situation when Trump was president then they look at their situation now, considering the average home buying age is significantly higher now under Biden under Trump young families had a chance to own a home, Biden just raised capital gains tax to 44.6% which will keep people from selling their house or buying stock, its is a 100 year record high and businesses will move their company overseas to avoid it, 13 million and increasing daily immigrants are now the responsibly of the US tax payer, the average Americans savings is significantly less then it was under Trump, with Trump the average family savings account had 41,000$ in 2019, under Biden the average family saving account has 8,000$ in 2022, keep in mind THAT happened knowing they were running for reelection. Trump is the better choice if you want more money and a less chance of getting into a war, and thats just fact based evidence.
Immediately upon hearing about the danger of COVID in early 2020, Trump initiated an effective travel ban from China. He also initiated the federal lockdowns, and Operation Warpspeed, which stimulated private sector efforts to develop the vaccine. 1 million people did not die because of Trump. And even if we run with this line of argument - far more people died of COVID under Biden than under Trump, so does Biden have far more blood on his hands by your assessment? Or does he get a pass because he's not Trump?
@@buckmurdock2500 That's a given, he's going to try to cheat again but just concentrate on his first term rather than how he's running for another term just to avoid justice.
That's how most Americans vote. People that aren't partisan just vote based on top headlines and on whether the current president looks reliable. Most don't pay attention to details until the debates.
Seriously. Laura Coates - what are you doing? He said that something major would have to shift otherwise he will predict Biden. She keeps pushing him [with a joking tone] to make a prediction he's already stated clearly.
True. Maybe 10 years ago there were enough landline phones to get an adequate sample for polling purposes. I can’t see how there’s enough for effective modeling today.
@@mjt1517Probably not by Rasmussen and other conservative friendly polls. Pretty sure more liberal leaning polls go to you get voters and those with cell phones for polling and those with landlines.
"Supposing we hit the body, with a tremendous...uh, whether it's ultraviolet or just, very powerful light...and I think you said that hasn't been checked but you're gonna test it...and then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body which you can do either through the skin or...uh, in some other way, and I think you said you're gonna test that too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant, it knocks it out, in a minute, one minute, and is there a way we can do something like that? Uh...by injection inside or...or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs so it would be interesting to check that so that you're gonna have to use...medical doctors but it sounds, it sounds interesting to me and so we'll see but the whole concept of the light the way it kills it in one minute that's a, that's pretty powerful".
The look on Dr. Brix was hilarious. She can not believe the stable genius would blurt out medical wisdom. It is not surprising because he has an uncle in MIT.
When Gump visited the U.K. in 2019, his ignorance was on display. He didn't know what countries make up the U.K. and thought Northern Ireland was part of the U.K. He was totally clueless about Brexit and tried to fake it, making a fool of himself. He didn't know the difference between the Balkans and the Baltic; He was totally ignorant about global warming, and when Prince Charles tried to explain it to him, Gump rudely didn't pay any attention, dismissing it all as "a Chinese hoax," and that scientists were all lying to get money. As reported in the Guardian, Gump then told Charles that he had received awards for his properties having the "cleanest climates." Gump said the U.S. has the "cleanest climate" because "the climate water has to be crystal clear." Prince Charles was taken aback by Gump's ignorance. Charles, always a gentleman, merely responded by giving Gump a sad half smile, look of pity and quietly told Gump he liked his shoes.
He is only in the lead because of all the bots and threats and bullying, scaring ppl even TERRORIZING PPL. Its all being investigated and when the truth comes out. PPL will be soo sick of the CONSTANT CON!!!
This is the first guy I've seen in the last year who predicted Trump's victory and I never wait long enough till the end to see who they choose for 2024 because it scares the holy f****** s*** out of me
0:34 I'm willing to cut him a little slack on the 2000 election since that is the third closest Presidential election in U.S. history (only behind 1876 and 1824), and he did give Al Gore the maximum number of false keys that a presidential candidate could have while still losing the election, so it really isn't that big of a failure. 1:22 And remember Dewey beat Truman. Okay, that may be a false equivalency because polling now isn't the same as it was in 1948 but it's still something to note.
@@daisy1441 Care to explain? The human body hasn’t changed much over several thousand years.🤣 If you’re referring to medications and treatments, are you one of those who promotes bleach to fight Covid?
I was always curious about that. "Great again" like when? Before the Civil Rights act? Before women had voting rights? The Puritan Republicans in Arizona are resurrecting an abortion law from before the Civil War, so it's not so far fetched to believe they'd want that.
America was greatest during the periods of time when the USA was the world’s only superpower. That was true in 1945-1955, and in 1992-2011. But now China is a superpower as well, and making Trump President again won’t change that.
@@timonsolus That's a good argument for the era when the US was dominant in the world. I don't see that as synonymous with 'great' though. 1945-1950's was the initial ramp to the cold war. Scary times. The Civil Rights Act was not passed until 1964, so racial minorities would probably not consider those years 'great.' Agreed that Trump never had much clue on foreign policy. He wouldn't even read security briefings. I've always wondered what "MAGA" means to each of the people wearing the hats. Some are obviously flying Confederate flags, but most probably don't have much concept of 'Again' except as some abstract rebellious phrase.
@@RalphEwell-s5oSome people like Presidents who DON’T let their Capital be sacked and defiled, or who don’t let elections fall into “massive fraud” on their watch, then burn millions in tax payer dollars to find nothing and prosecute no one for the fraud. And the jobs and stock market numbers are much better under Biden.
Seems like a smart guy. I like how he’s just sticking to facts…I would imagine he’s got a better chance of an accurate prediction than everyone else trying to guess how people feel about the candidates.
Not to brag but I have predicted North Korea's election and have been right every time.
I have predicted Russia‘s election outcome for 20 years
😂
That comment was Delicious! What's for dessert?
You have a very good sense of humor. En français, vous êtes un bon prédicateur. de Québec-Canada.
@@guybrulotte670 I am humbled. Thank you.
Only poll that matters is election day.
Independent Voter Absolutely voting Blue 🇺🇸
@@JAVetter You’re not an independent if you’re voting for a color. That’s not what independent thinkers do.
The rigged election weeks you mean.
Democrats and Republicans have p1ss3d off the 110 MILLION AMERICANS left in this country. They better prepare to be held accountable and prepare for a lesson that history will never forget!
@@crispinfornoff206this year they do 😂 anyone who can think at all, Independently or otherwise, knows "blue" is better than the other "option" which is "fake red"
The rest of the world is wondering how it could even be close..
Wondering? This is a country that has the highest number of flat earthers, people who believe that one day zombies will rise and in order to prepare for it, you need to build fortified fortress. A country that has more mass shootings per year than the days in calendar and the only wondering you can come up is what did those kindergarten do to piss off someone to go to his armory and started spraying children with bullets. That is the dumbest country..
Israel and Ukraine. Both wars very few people support funding for. So Biden voters don't even want to answer the question. Meanwhile Trump supporters are always active
Every person I know in Canada, which is many, says exactly that to me, they wonder what in the world are people thinking in the United States who would vote for Trump.
And why would they vote for Biden @@brenrenn8306. Considering under Trump, no wars , no inflation, no border crisis, safer country. Yeah I dunno. FJB. Trump 2024
RFKjr will win the vote if either Biden or Trump pull out of the race.
This didn’t age well.
It really didnt
Neither did Biden
It aged even worse than bad now.
Great quote:”Polls are snapshots that are abused as predictors.”
We need to go back to planet of the apes society
No tech or information 😕 🤔 😢 😐 😪 😞
They’re also incredibly inaccurate because of the demographics likely to answer them, and as well as people trolling the polls saying they’re pro trump even if they aren’t
Polls are snapshots that form a trend over time.
As true today as they were in 2016
Biden is failing short term economy /long term economy/ incumbent charisma/ social unrest/ foreign/military failure/ and foreign military success that’s 6 right there and RFK might be in the polls that’s 7/ the man and himself is a scandal and his family as well so is trump, what keys does he have success with party mandate ? Given.contest . Given incumbency . Given and no policy change cause he doesn’t have a policy to begin with. I’m and independent voter leaning RFK or not voting , I see a lot of bad keys for Biden than Trump and that’s simply a man that at pro Israel and pro palistinian rally’s both saying F Joe Biden.. both sides of the protesters are chanting it.. just like everyone else wants a better economy less inflation less spending , ppl want what we had in 2016-2020 over what they have now and you don’t have to be a republican to think that. My 2 cents .
This doesn’t make sense. He says he was right in 2000 because Gore won the popular vote, but then he was also right in predicting trump in 2016 - when of course Clinton won the popular vote
After 2000 he switched to just electoral.
by vote is one thing , but when all was said and done gore would have won the electoral college.
The guy is a fuggin con
@@dogpatch8266 ah yes, you’re right
Madam President Hillary Clinton Won The Popular Votes by Landslides in 2008 and 2016.
Just vote. Everyone PLEASE, DO NOT SIT THIS ONE OUT!!!
And no MAILING
@@clintbronson5 What's your reason? Mine... I don't trust deJoy. He continues to make a mess of the post office. Our state is only vote by mail, in emergency we can get ballot at voting office, like when post office had to be addressed for not delivering some... we have no issues, except since deJoy hot involved, with decades of the process, and most of us return our ballots to the drop box instead of mailing them back.
Trump 2024
Trump 2024
If trump loses don't complain like punk ass jerks. It cause you didn't vote and it be your FAULT
Well, this has come to bite him in the arse
He says he was really correct about 2000 because of the popular vote. Yet doesn’t use the popular vote in other cases like 2016 to say he was wrong. Pure nonsense
Pure CNN
Apparently he says that after 2000 he changed his election model to reflect the electoral college not the popular vote but I don't buy it. Sounds like an excuse for getting 2000 wrong
He was initially only predicting the populatar vote, after 2000 he changed to electoral.
Exactly. And if anyone had to explain to him that popular vote has only indirect bearing (unless you get 100%), then he should not be making predictions.
@stringtheoryx after 2000 he switched to only electoral.
Polls don't mean anything these days, in my opinion. I agree 100% with this guy.
Yet he was was wrong in his prediction that Biden would win 2020
They can reflect trends ..thats about it
CNN Polls suck ass tbh.
I personally have never taken one.
Polls do have meaning and value and usually at least one gets it right. Which one? Well your guess is as good as mine; though ones where no human contact is present are more reliable if people are voting on something with a political stigma. I mean would you want to admit to a stranger that you support Trump? Candidates have to adapt in relation to polling activity to ignore would be to court failure for sure.
NOBODY participates in these polls. Do YOU answer calls you don't recognize? Me neither.
Yes! and I tell them I'm voting for painfully slow FJB. Even though there is no way in hell I'd ever vote for him. And democrats think the race is close . . . lol.
@@buckmurdock2500And Republicans think that Trump won the last time…
@@azul8811 some of the really lunatic ones think he's still President.
@@azul8811 As an independent as much as Trump gets on my nerves if Biden wins we are in DEEP trouble, the 44.6% capital gains tax thats will be the highest in 100 years is enough to make large business owner pack up and move their company and their jobs to another country, people will not be able to leave their homes to their family members anymore, any money that is made in the stock market even on 401k investments the government will get half, in some states as high as 57%, people are so caught up in Trumps drama because the media talks about it 24/7 because they need you to vote for the party that is going to make them even wealthier which is Biden, it will make the rich even richer and the poor even poorer creating dependency on the government.
not me either
Allan Lichtman you’re fired. Your predictions are nothing more than guesses.
I agree with other commentators here: the only poll that matters is on November 5th. Period.
WRONG! Elections have been rigged since the beginning. We only have the illusion of choice. If elections were free and fair the senile pedo dotard puppet we have now wouldn't be in office.
Trump is going to win LMAO
@Economics70 😂😂I agree with you. Win the trip to orange county 😂😂
@@Economics70doubt it he doesn’t have the numbers in his favor at all and rfk jr is going to pull votes away from trump also
@@marciamariethompson6463 Trumps going to be president again, get your blue hair dye ready and a fresh dose of hormone blockers
If we should have learned anything from the polls the last many years is that the polls are often very wrong.
THANK YOU!
@fultonbenjamin9022 He was never ahead in the polls in 2016 or 2020 so that's all you need and it's leftwing news doing the polls so they're actively looking for Biden supporters, so it might be more like 65% for Trump
@@andrewpeters5145 for sure, but like I said often,not always. Also it’s important to know who’s doing the polling and reporting on it and why. Very often the “news” media that caters to a given demographic designs and conducts polls that are basically an echo chamber if you will that provide the “news” they want. Mom used to say, “liars figure and figures lie”🤪
This the only guy I have been waiting for to give me the real deal. Forget the polls.
Just watch his weekly livestreams on his TH-cam channel. He talks at length about different topics and it's not always with people like on here asking him why Biden is losing.
He’s not god
Trump will win
100% me too. I remember when he said that Trump would win in 2016, when no one else thought that he would (I actually hoped he was wrong that year lol). I remember when he said that Biden would win in 2020.
@@TheRealTommyRhas he predicted this year yet
@@ndo533 He has not officially predicted this year. He said that he will provide his official prediction in August. (His official predictions always occur in the fall before the election when there is enough final information/results). He did say that so far things are looking in favor of Biden, but that could change between now and then.
Hhmm after the debate last night, I wonder his thoughts now.
Check CNBC. He was on 2 days ago.
It’s the same
Right? I was curious which of the keys covers a clear mental decline
No presidential race has ever been won in July because of a debate
@@sameasme2Well get ready for an historical first.
He never promotes his podcast. He is fantastic!
I watch him and Sam every week. He's brilliant and I love how he just says to ignore polls because I agree that the polls seem very wrong.
What's the podcast (apologies if it was mentioned in the clip &I tuned it out)?
THANKS JAYE!
Dude, I stopped trusting polls after 2016
its all a fucking sham!!
Even more after 2020..
I think the 45 million blue fakes they found last week gives O'Biden 50%? 😂
Choking on my tea..😂
why?
@@claudeheinrich3613 probably because Hillary was winning big according to the polls
@@claudeheinrich3613The answer to your question is one minute and twenty seconds into the video
He isn't wrong. The polls are often way off. Just a general pulse.
Always, polls had Biden winning Texas in 2020.
He's clearly wrong. Biden could win. But Trump is clearly more likely to win at this point in time. Immigration, inflation, RFK's high polling, and widespread incompetence and senility are destroying Biden's odds. If Trump is convicted of a felony, which seems likely, it will likely pull down his numbers. It's easy to sit on the sidelines with your magic system and pretend you know something that everyone else doesn't when you actually know less. Then if you happen to be right, like any child could be, you claim your magic system works, and a bunch of retards on social media will believe you are a guru because they don't understand that successfully betting on an outcome when you already have information is neither random nor difficult. Biden's economy is like Jimmy Carter's...people are unlikely to reward that.
@@chris42690Polls had Biden winning in 2020 and he did. The polls are more often right than wrong by a long shot.
Lmagazine’s cover of “madam president”?).
However, it would appear that he is stating unofficially that sleepy/crooked Joe will win in the upcoming election.
As in 2020 when there were more voters who hated Trump
He is very wrong about what he was saying in the video. How is biden “shaky” in only 4 of the keys??? He completely glanced over short and long term economy!! Worst inflation rates in my lifetime! He glanced over policy change!!! Where was the promised student loan forgiveness? Scandal?? You mean like the one with his family and their overseas “business deals”. Foreign AND military failures up the wazoo. And he has the charisma of a potato. American society has been in social unrest since the pandemic. Which of these keys has he actually won???
Did he really predict Trump winning in 2016? No one saw that coming.
He didn't ACTUALLY WIN
@@gbluesky4264 but... he did.
@@gbluesky4264Yes he did.
@@gbluesky4264oh yea, that’s right!
Electrocal ‘I am not American and I don’t give a F about spelling’
And most favorite vote system❗️
To my European Ears that really sounds like one of the most Not-Democracy things I’ve ever heard❗️
Hillalry won 2016. trump and putin stole it.
Thanks for having me!
Initially, I thought this comment wasn't truly from you, but after going to the associated channel, I believe it's you. Sir, it seems you are more often right and perhaps even never wrong. I hope your streak doesn't stop now. The consequences could be horrific.
@@richardk6196 it's me!
@@AllanLichtmanTH-cam I cant understand why anyone would vote for Biden. Things are bad in America and around the world, I'm still angry about us getting defeated in Afghanistan.
@@richardk6196The consequences of Joe getting another 4 years to plunge the world even further into w4r and r3cession are the ones we should be afraid of. I genuinely don’t think our country would survive it.
@@theLegendarySpaceCaptainTrump had the same plan, it was never going to be easy to leave after 20 years.
Polls don't mean anything. Most responsible voters don't participate in them.
True.i don't even know where the polls are that they are voting for...
@@suziecue3027 Also I don't trust polls because just like there are troll farms meant to influence social media, there are troll farms designed to influence polling data as well. Actual Elections are the only REAL polling that counts.
Actually they do…you only need a small sample the get an idea of how trends are going and the mood of the people
@@JohnReilly-r4j But since 2016, polls have become big busine$$ and just another way to spread disinformation. If there are troll farms wreaking havoc on social media, what makes you think troll farms aren't also corrupting poll data?! And even without trolls, polling data is way to easy to bend to a narrative. I.E.: '75% of voters who are in the top 2% of early voting and rank 5% of the northeast region of so and so . .' - which is why many poll results have very fine print at the bottom of their published data. And we all know what fine print means.
@@JohnReilly-r4j I don't debate with troll farm accounts.
Stop and think about how many calls you receive and don't answer. Polling accuracy is at an all time low.
The polls predicted Hillary would win. They said it so much that it almost sounded like a done deal. Then, people got turned off from them for a while... surprised that they are back.
Just came back to see how badly this aged
How about now?
@@lolstalgic9602 Biden literally dropped out because of the poll numbers lmao
The Social Unrest key should not turn because the protests are small relative to the 350 million people who live in the country. They seem bigger than they are because of our wonderful media (sarcasm intended).
I heard they turned the sprinklers on the campers. Good way to get rid of them.
@@owenbowen1090deplorable
The protests aren't as large now as they were in 2020, but if you think these are 'small' you are not paying attention, but also underestimating the effect it may have on the election. Especially given the fact they are like a week only and completely spontaneous, but they are only getting bigger, not smaller. And with the police forces sending in riot gear, literal military equipment, and even snipers to sit on rooftops, I would be willing to guess they are only going to get bigger as time passes. That isn't to say that these will still be happening in November 2024, but the idea these are small is just stupid.
That also doesn't even get into what the Democratic convention in Chicago is going to look like this summer, assuming that Biden's policy of aiding and abetting Israel with their ethnic cleansing of Palestine is still occurring. Nobody knows what exactly will happen, but the Social Unrest key should absolutely 100% turn against him and if you think otherwise you are living in a bubble and deluding yourself of what people in the real world actually think about this current policy. Don't aid in handing the election to Trump by underestimating how bad Biden's policy is on this issue... all Trump has to do is lie to the public, fake-position himself to the left of Biden, and say that 'he will bring peace' and he probably steals just enough votes to win some swing states. This issue is costing Biden the election and EVERY single piece of polling data says it is. Even if you think the opinion polls are 'fake' or are a dozen points off, which has literally never happened before in the history of polling and is an Alex Jones level conspiracy theory- even if the polls are off by a dozen points Biden is still UNDERWATER to the point where he may not even win the popular vote like he did in 2020.
@@Black_CaucusLoL, people protesting isn't unrest. The summer of love under the trump administration during Co-Vid was social unrest.
What we have now is another occupy Wall Street. That didn't hurt Obama one bit.
@@Black_CaucusBut what I don't get is, everyone knows perfectly well that Trump is pro Israel and anti Muslim. They must know that under Trump it would be much much much worse for Gaza. And if he lied about it, if he criticized Israel in the least he would lose the Evangelicals, who have this weird thing about Israel and Jesus' coming or something ( the Rapture I think they call it). So it just doesn't make sense to me that anyone would vote for Trump thinking he would help Gaza.
I took Allan Lichtman's class at American University. Amazing Professor brilliant.
he is a fraud
@@AlexandrawOfficial_Lexi My bet is that you are scared of smart people.
THANKS!
Did you give him a handy?
Well, he's wrong on this one.
This is why I like Professor Lichtman...gets right to the point, doesn't spoil anything...he's a distinguished professor and you normally trust people like him.
You trust him, because he supports your narrative. If it is the opposite, then he might be the most untrusworthy professor for you.
He argues he was right in 2000 because of popular vote, but wouldn't that make him wrong in 2016? This guy is knowledgeable but I don't know these "keys" apply every election... this feels different today.
@@hebronharvester1487 With how ridiculously close the 2000 election was (Gore lost because of a handful of votes in a state where his opponent's brother was the governor), I wouldn't hold it against him. And he did predict a Trump victory in 2016.
@samenders1074 he's a smart guy, don't get me wrong. I just can't give him credit for 2000. I also think that the keys in 2024 are going to be radically different than any other election. He also hasn't even considered the 3rd party key as RFK Jr. Is making noise... the economy was liked by many under Trump... hard to see every key applying in this election.
@samenders1074 by the way, I'm not being one-sided here. I'm just saying he correctly predicted 2016 with the same fault he disregarded in 2000. That's not a reliable outcome. He's been right every other time but this election I feel is different
Who are they polling? I've never been asked
I say this to myself every time. A lot are still done via phone. Younger folks don't have land lines and are at work during the day. Retired boomers have landlines.
Cause u don’t matter
@@Boomhauersdad real mature,
@@Boomhauersdadthat’s not very nice
I mean, they count anything as a poll, if you donate to someone’s campaign, you are contributing to the poll, if you vote for someone, that contributes to a poll.
It is now known that Al Gore won in Florida and thus had more electoral points in addition to the popular vote, but this recount was after the fact by a non-governmental organization. If you recall, the Republican Supreme Court blocked an official recount in Florida in December 2000, whereas it permitted THREE recounts in Georgia after the 2020 election.
I don’t remember Gore jumping up and down claiming the election was stolen from him (which it was by Jeb Bush). Gracefully, he allowed the transition of power to occur.
That is an outright lie. It is NOT known. The actual recount that was in progress which the Supreme Court blocked would have given Bush the win in 3 of the 4 standards for what constitutes a vote for President, including the standard that was most widely used by States with defined standards. So even if the recount had finished, Bush wins. This count was only looking at Ballots that didn't have a vote for President. A later study that included Under Votes (no vote for President) and Over Votes (votes for more than one Presidential candidate) showed that Gore would have won by two of the considered standards and Bush would have won by two of the considered standards, including the most widely used standard. There was one later study that looked at statewide uncounted votes that would give Gore a slight lead if they looked at Under votes (no vote for President) and Over Votes (votes for more than 1 Presidential Candidate). Gore NEVER requested looking at ballots that had more than one vote for President. It was never ordered by the Florida Supreme Court. It was never seriously under consideration. The only thing considered were ballots without a vote for President to determine if there was an intention to vote for President. When those statewide ballots were looked at Bush still won (but by lower than the official margin). Only when you looked at Ballots where people voted for more than one candidate did that one study determine Gore would have won. To say it is "known" that Al Gore won Florida is either an outright lie or you are incredibly stupid.
Actually after all of the 2000 Florida votes were thoroughly counted months after the election, Bush had more votes than Gore.
Wow....
So absolutely true, and tragic! There really needs to be a true documentary about this. Sad that this is being forgotten and overlooked. TrumpLoses by thousands in different states and people still think it was rigged......how far we have fallen as nation.
Well that didn't age well...
Even better now
I’ll DEFINITELY be saving this one, making sure to remind myself this was posted May, 1, 2024.
When Biden trounces Trump AGAIN maybe Trump will finally get it. “YOU’RE FIRED!!!”
@@phrogme2450 Lol it’s funny how confident you are in your statement.
@phrogme2450 Trump will win or America will lose. It's that simple
If Biden wins your country is fucked. Get off his payroll and help your country. Just admit trump is the answer and the left couldn't run a bath.@@phrogme2450
@@Catfishwilly1 He's in on the steal
I believe it was the philosopher Cliff Clavin (from TV show Cheers) who said, "If you go back in history and take every President, you'll find that the numerical value in each of their names, was equally divisble into the year in which they were elected. By my calculations, our next President has to be named... Yelnik McWawa".
Someone from Wakanda State
It's my understanding that polls are conducted via landline.
Who uses landlines?
Pretty much makes any poll completely irrelevant.
Who used landlines in 1936? Demographics skewed toward the wealthy. That's how the Literary Digest picked Alf Landon, and went out of business not long after.
I don't have a landline and I've been polled. Maybe don't believe in third party conspiracy theories.
@@mjt1517 lol. So above it all. In the know. I call bs on your bs.
@@mjt1517The big polls use landlines. Not sure which poll you did by mobile.
Old people use landlines. Old people reliably vote.
I GUARANTEE that CNN would NOT have him on air if he picked Trump !
He picked Trump the time he won and also picked Biden when Biden won.
Thank God. 👐
RFK Jr. is the BEST option.
@@MaxStArlyn You mean " Kermit the Frog "
@@michaelpatton7065 He obviously is the best option.
He could have included "nausea index".
Polls are obnoxious and almost always wrong.
Oh boy I so hope you are right Prof.
You won't know America if he becomes president again I hope he is WRONG! Okay, you think everything is high now ha you haven't seen high. And if America wants to vote for this old man that falls and can't read a teleprompter fine but I'm not sinking with this ship✈️
❤
Guys leave him alone. Trump changed the locks on him. 😂😂😂. His keys are invalid. He got locked out. Back to Home Depot 😂
He did predict that Trump would lose back in 2020 mostly due to social unrest and scandal ...
How can we credit him for 2016 when he back-talked 2000 and claimed he won because of popular vote? You can't have it both ways!
@@hebronharvester1487huh? He predicted Trump would win in 2016!
@becks3709 yes, but Trump won the electoral vote. He predicted Gore would win in 2000 based on popular vote, so there isn't consistency. Can't have it one way and then a different way the next time. Whichever one you give him, he was wrong on the other.
@jacobstravail I'm actually never said I was a Trumper, yet you go accusing me of that just because I dissent. 2000, he claimed it was a popular vote and then walked back his claim... he was wrong in 2000, which means 2016 is arguably wrong, one or the other... you can't have it both ways. That being said, he had it right every other time. But he hasn't been 100% correct. Has nothing to do with Trump.
My overall point is I would not just trust him that Biden will win. You still gotta go out and vote. There's gonna be a time he will be wrong.
According to the Clinton News Network.
Really glad you brought him on today, thanks.
❤
Chissano's ingenuity has shown us that even the simplest ideas can have a profound impact on the world around us.
Funny how he skipped over the short and long term economy bullets points?
Biden should have an advantage, but his policies have left MOST Americans in financial peril.
He has said that both keys leans true (for Biden).
@@user-ko2fq2hg8b That is silly and incoherent. On both ST and LT Economy the voters are overwhelmingly going Trump by 30-40 points
@@JohnSmith-ki2hl You're just extremely biased. This election will be very close just like previous elections. Please get out of your bubble.
The US economy is doing better than any of its western peers. Hmmm.
Was waiting for this dude, the key master, to pop up on CNN.
If he was predicting Trump, CNN wouldn't have him on!!
❤
The problem isn’t lack of money, food, land or water. The problem is you’ve given control of these things to a group of psychopaths and their families who care more about maintaining there power than helping mankind- Bill Hicks 1961-1994
There are a lot more of us than there are of them. Don’t forget who the people of this country are. Us. The truth is going to come out this year. I promise.
I can only keep praying that you are right, Mr Van Gorden. How can anyone in their right mind vote for that feeble brained old fool ?
I agree with you and Bill Hicks. Can you point me to a general source or idea of what gives you reason to be confident it will be this year? I understand if you’d rather not. This year sounds good to me!
This is absurd. You're talking like one of those ever-delusional Q-Anon believers. "THIS year will be different! I promise!!" 😆🤣
who are you voting though?
@@angel_of_rust Read that question back and reiterate your words please.
Where do you guys get these polls from? They’re always totally off when it comes times for elections
Right, name me where Trump would be getting voters from, besides his base, ridiculous!
@@psongman9536Travel to any rural county and you’ll see.
If you want to do these polls you got to go to ddhq .. they to the polls.
@@psongman9536people like you are the problem. You voted for that gd p o s dementia patient that is currently in the White House.
@psongman9536 Middle class working people outside of progressive brainrot cities. That's where his base is.
I called it. I said he was gonna be wrong this year.
Someone said: “it’s the economy stupid”
Specifically, unemployment.
@@Alexadria205 True. The economy is way better than 4 years ago. Unemployment is at record lows. The public perception of those is a different story. Many say that they miss the economy of Trump, but in reality, the economy 4 years ago was a disaster. And due to Trump's mishandling of Covid, people were desperate to find things as basic as toilet paper.
I've spoken to some nice, well-intentioned people who thought that many of Biden's great achievements were actually Trump. They get their news from Tic-Toc and TH-cam. Hard to combat that.
One big issue here is that the economy, both long term and short term, is strong. But people seem to think it isn't. Currently six of his points are false, giving Trump a win. If RFK drops out, it's five, giving Biden a win.
But if we factor in that people seem to believe that the economy sucks, then currently eight points are false, giving Biden zero chance.
@@RegebroRepairs It’s the debt that is the problem 35T$. Biden wants 7T$ budget for 2025 from 4T$, plus’s raising capital gains taxes from 15% to 46.5%. Finance the debt will take 1.5T$ Add everything together US goes into recession maybe depression.
@@RegebroRepairs claiming that the economy is doing well or bad is moot without defining your indicators of economic health. In traditional market based measures of economic success we are successful while when looking at individual economic conditions the reality becomes far more grey.
He says his method only predicts the popular vote and that’s why he got 2000 wrong, but he predicted Trump in 2016 but he lost the popular vote. So either way it’s a flawed system.
Except Trump didn't lose the popular vote when you eliminate all the ballot stuffing and unconfirmed suitcases of votes for Biden that suddenly appeared at 3 in the morning.
But he is a "professor" so we are supposed to believe everything he says. LOL LOL. Not!
The reason for this discrepancy is that he changed his style of prediction. Gore lost in 2000 due to the electoral college. Lichtman decided to start calling the winner of the electoral college, not just the winner of the popular vote.
He 100% accurately predicted 2000, Gore won both electoral and popular at end of the day, the unlawful business in Florida was later found out to be that Gore won the state
@@patriotmama his credentials are his track-record - 9 correct predictions out of 10 is good
The popular vote doesn't matter in the national election for President. It's going to be decided by voters in a few dozen counties in 5 key battleground States. It's actually very ridiculous when you think about it.
Popular vote should trump all but it doesn’t unfortunately.
And that is the Scary part. Trump lost both elections with the popular vote.
Civics is crying.
Votes aren't enough this time: a few red states will withhold certification for Biden, he won't reach 270 electoral votes and (per the Constitution) it goes to one vote per state and (R)s hold the majority. This has happened twice before in US history.
Agree. The voting system is structured so that the minority has a better chance of winning than the majority. It is rigged at the onset, so that just in case.....
Hes a con artist alan litchman
They've got to make it look really close 😂
Yeah, it won't be close when Trump loses in November lol
Oh course they do. If it looked like a landslide, their voters would stay home thinking it doesn’t matter their candidate has got it already.
They keep saying Trump is leading in the polls and it will send Biden supporters out in droves because if they don’t vote he will lose.
Did she not listen to what he said? He told her exactly where things stand. Girl needs to listen.
Bet she didn't understand a single thing and just wanted to simple it out for her or maybe viewers
*She typically tends to be a bit detached. Her descriptive coverage of the man in front of the Trump building was a bit bizarre. She also has shown her own agenda in her reporting.*
She's a political commentator/pundit. This sort of thing is good for television. She's not seriously expecting an answer and knows there isn't one but it's entertaining to see the back and forth.
its all their agenda to mind control.people to vote their agenda. So they lie, lie, lie... lie out their stinky arse to the public. CNN has the lowest ratings of reporting truthful news... go calculate that.
@@TheDropdeadZed I sure wouldn't call her a pundit! Lol.
I have been watching this guy predict election after election in advance and he is always right. Genius method, I’m not sure how he came up with this system of prediction.
And I'm real sure he got rick in Vegas.
He went to Harvard and specialized in history and quantitative methods. He combined those skills to figure out how to predict elections. I’ve been watching him election after election also. He has books.
@@JimDandy-rn4vd Why Vegas? He gets appearance fees and book residuals that surge every four years; that's much better than whatever Vegas could give him.
And it's illegal to gamble on political elections.
His method boils down to this: will there be a manufactured crisis that the press blames on the incumbent.
…I’m guessing that 2024 will be his 2nd “miss” ( Most Americans will just not accept his “passing” on debates-no matter what excuse his staff make, it will be seen as confirmation of his mental decline )
Yes, the polls have been wayyy off the last couple of years. They have significantly underestimated Trump every time...😂😂
... he's been right so far ... the young vote will be most important
Except Biden has already won.
And I have underestimated how gullible his supporters are
Underestimated him? Donnie lost, lol.
@@auntymarushkafah but the election was *cough* stolen! *cough bullshite cough* trumpers are so effing gullible.
They're both sitting at 50% and have been basically since forever. At the end of the day it's impossible to tell. It's literally a coin toss
Bs Biden never got this type of polls all lies
Funny. Nobody shows up for Biden rally.
@@Fastguitar maybe cause Biden voters actually have jobs? 🤷
Trump is definitely the favorite
Its almost funny how I see no support for Biden yet hes close.
I took a class in college called Statistics. Predicting literally any outcome can be achieved through a mathematical equation. I failed miserably.
I took statistics in college and in my graduate program. Got an A both times. Not hard if you pay attention
One of your mistakes is probably thinking that predictions are binary. Statistics is sometimes about the chance that something is true, or the chance that something will happen.
Trophy or parade….you pick@@Lawrence_Talbot
Statistics was the 2nd easiest class in college. The easiest being basket weaving.
@@Lawrence_Talboti think i got a B cause I didn't do any homework
If enough people flip a coin someone will be right 9 times in a row.
No. There will never be a 100% probability maybe 99% but never a 100%
@@danielnils3you bad at math?
@@danielnils3
If everyone flips coins nune times about I in 300 people will predict all nine elections correctly.
If 300 million people flip coins nine times about a million people will predict all nine elections correctly.
The chances that the number who predict the election correctly will be zero instead of a million is
far, far lower than 1%.
Almost certainly not even
one ten thousandth of a percent.
I guessed a coin flip 10 times in a row once. So that's true. 1 chance in 1024.
I also guessed two cards off the top of a deck once. That's 1 in 2704.
I must be even more psychic than Lichtman.
Seriously, it just happens. His criteria seem simplistic, and the keys are all
afforded equal weight. Public sentiment (and voting) is not binary, and may
not even be consistent if the public was allowed to re-do the vote a week
later.
I'm pretty sure that apathy and overconfidence played a big part in the
Hillary vs Trump election. People voted for 3rd party candidates just
to make a comment, then woke up to a horror that they wished they
could repair.
Irrelevant comment.
this aged like milk
we'll see 😉
I call it: Biden will win by a slight [and or small] majority.
I'm talking about the electoral college, but Biden too will win the vote- although this could be won by even a slighter majority.
@@erykpatrykchudy5675 Joseph R. Biden will not win the election.
milk and wine after yesterday lol
Biden ain't fighting trump is gonna lose. I am trump supporter
@@veernair no way trump's losing
I think an important thing to note about this election is how unique it is. This is the first time in 130 years where two US Presidents have run against each other, meaning we know how both candidates would govern. Lichtmans model has an impressive track record but as the 2000 election shows, it ain't perfect. This is an election i wouldnt be surprised for him to be wrong on.
Well he was right about the 2000 election. Gore should have won but Bush’s Brother was governor of Florida.
@@highvibrational There is no conclusive evidence that Gore would have won had the recount continued. Pretending that there is to make Lichtman look good is just dumb.
@@TheJoeschmoe777 It was the closest election in modern American history. If any election was ‘stolen’ it was the 2000 election. The Florida Secretary of state was Republican, the Supreme Court was controlled by Republicans, and the governor of the state was Jeb Bush. Gore lost because of voting machine errors and the fact that Florida had a time limit on recounts and failed to establish statewide uniform criteria for hand recounts.
@@TheJoeschmoe777 Before 2000 he only predicted who would win the popular vote, which before 2000 only twice had the candidate won without winning the popular vote. After 2000 this disparity has largely shifted as to democrats normally have the majority in popular vote, which is why after 2000 he only decided who would win electoral college.
@@alpbridges3553 But how in the world can he predict a different outcome with the exact same method?
And anyway, that only proves my point. 2000 was a very unique election the likes of which Lichtman has never had to predict before. So it is with this one. Not since the post Civil War era have two Presidents run against each other. Lichtmans never had to predict an election like this before so he could very possibly get it wrong.
How many people were polled and from what regions? What were the exact questions asked? I heard none of that in this video. I should have seen an explanation of the poll flash on the screen.
A lot of these polls have only 2,000 people if they're lucky. Which is a tiny amount of people.
You can find out this information.
Polls have regularly been polling demographics more likely to vote Trump.
Most polls are conducted over landlines. (What person under 35 has a landline, or answers a call from an unknown number.)
Maine had a poll that put Trump ahead by 6. Except that 53% of respondents were Male. Women in Maine outvote men by 6 to 4.
This is the case across the polls.
They're deliberately weighted towards Trump.
They don't care about the details of the polls. It's a talking point. Then they drag experts on air to "discuss".
"See? We did our work! Now give me my millions in pay.
Jesus, what a job.
@@s1lm4r1l6dont forget the polls were pretty accurate for 48 states in 2020
@@tesladrew2608 and then 2022 happened where pretty much every poll predicted a red wave and nothing close to that happened.
@jamesrowden303 Exactly. Trump supporters, Kennedy supporters cannot wait to tell people who they support and why. Biden supporters are more circumspect.
In any case. Things like disapproval are highly inaccurate indicators of voting intention.
It would not surprise me to learn that a significant proportion of people who disapprove of Biden intend to vote for him anyway because Trump is the alternative.
Yeah, it's too early to take anything seriously right now in regards to the election.
Perfect timing, but Biden's popularity continues to decline... Dream on...
F Ukraine start worrying about our country. No amnesty for your friends either
@@HockeyNationLiveShow No wonder Trumpty Dumbty said 'I LOVE THE UNEDUCATED'‼️ 🙄🤦🙅😂🤣
@@HockeyNationLiveShow Biden isn't perfect but trump is a train wreck... I will never understand why anyone would think he is a sane choice.
@@audiophiliac Because under Trump economy was better under Trump border closed under Trump less crimes under Trump no war under Trump it won’t have any protesters at the college. Under Biden gas grocery inflation loan car house etc. people are not stupid they had a better life under Trump. It cost me 14K more under Biden now… Because of his policies. No Biden.
Democrat ads should focus on what TFG's presidency was really like. People are forgetting. How he enriched himself and signed executive orders that benefited him personally. Remember his cosying up to dictators and nations that would love nothing better than America's fall and ostracizing America's allies. Not forgetting his atrocious negligent response to the pandemic as it swept across the country claiming tens of thousands of lives and his only concern was how the numbers looked "Trump said he wants to keep Grand Princess cruise passengers on the ship so that US coronavirus numbers don't 'double.' " You gotta remind people of how awful he was at the job. He's campaigning as if he's the new politician on the block. He ain't, he's already been round it once. #NeverForget
Why would they do that? They are more interested in blatant cheating.
Its not hard, people look at their situation when Trump was president then they look at their situation now, considering the average home buying age is significantly higher now under Biden under Trump young families had a chance to own a home, Biden just raised capital gains tax to 44.6% which will keep people from selling their house or buying stock, its is a 100 year record high and businesses will move their company overseas to avoid it, 13 million and increasing daily immigrants are now the responsibly of the US tax payer, the average Americans savings is significantly less then it was under Trump, with Trump the average family savings account had 41,000$ in 2019, under Biden the average family saving account has 8,000$ in 2022, keep in mind THAT happened knowing they were running for reelection. Trump is the better choice if you want more money and a less chance of getting into a war, and thats just fact based evidence.
Immediately upon hearing about the danger of COVID in early 2020, Trump initiated an effective travel ban from China. He also initiated the federal lockdowns, and Operation Warpspeed, which stimulated private sector efforts to develop the vaccine. 1 million people did not die because of Trump. And even if we run with this line of argument - far more people died of COVID under Biden than under Trump, so does Biden have far more blood on his hands by your assessment? Or does he get a pass because he's not Trump?
@@buckmurdock2500 That's a given, he's going to try to cheat again but just concentrate on his first term rather than how he's running for another term just to avoid justice.
@@buckmurdock2500 100% agree - Repubs are trying to cheat because they cannot win a fair and honest election
Allan Lichtman predictions are just "If the president does good things he gets reelected"
Some of the things are out of the Presidential control though
Well, I guess we can write off Biden.
That's how most Americans vote. People that aren't partisan just vote based on top headlines and on whether the current president looks reliable. Most don't pay attention to details until the debates.
Do maga's even think before they comment? Cuz u sure don't 😂😂@@JimDandy-rn4vd
That’s not true. The president can’t control lots of things on the list.
Chissano's commitment to sustainability has inspired others to think critically about their own consumption habits.
Hello! Your credibility went down to the toilet.
Seriously. Laura Coates - what are you doing? He said that something major would have to shift otherwise he will predict Biden. She keeps pushing him [with a joking tone] to make a prediction he's already stated clearly.
Love your keys Professor!!! You have been amazing!
Just vote American..
I correctly predict he has no idea what he's talking about. 😂
Anyone who doesn’t have a landline doesn’t get polled.
True. Maybe 10 years ago there were enough landline phones to get an adequate sample for polling purposes. I can’t see how there’s enough for effective modeling today.
I don't have a landline and I've been polled.
That's incorrect.
@@mjt1517Probably not by Rasmussen and other conservative friendly polls. Pretty sure more liberal leaning polls go to you get voters and those with cell phones for polling and those with landlines.
Thanks for the update
This didn't age well. Lol
"Supposing we hit the body, with a tremendous...uh, whether it's ultraviolet or just, very powerful light...and I think you said that hasn't been checked but you're gonna test it...and then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body which you can do either through the skin or...uh, in some other way, and I think you said you're gonna test that too. Sounds interesting.
And then I see the disinfectant, it knocks it out, in a minute, one minute, and is there a way we can do something like that?
Uh...by injection inside or...or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs so it would be interesting to check that so that you're gonna have to use...medical doctors but it sounds, it sounds interesting to me and so we'll see but the whole concept of the light the way it kills it in one minute that's a, that's pretty powerful".
The look on Dr. Brix was hilarious. She can not believe the stable genius would blurt out medical wisdom. It is not surprising because he has an uncle in MIT.
When Gump visited the U.K. in 2019, his ignorance was on display. He didn't know what countries make up the U.K. and thought Northern Ireland was part of the U.K. He was totally clueless about Brexit and tried to fake it, making a fool of himself. He didn't know the difference between the Balkans and the Baltic; He was totally ignorant about global warming, and when Prince Charles tried to explain it to him, Gump rudely didn't pay any attention, dismissing it all as "a Chinese hoax," and that scientists were all lying to get money. As reported in the Guardian, Gump then told Charles that he had received awards for his properties having the "cleanest climates." Gump said the U.S. has the "cleanest climate" because "the climate water has to be crystal clear." Prince Charles was taken aback by Gump's ignorance. Charles, always a gentleman, merely responded by giving Gump a sad half smile, look of pity and quietly told Gump he liked his shoes.
The only pole you can rely on is the one at the Bada Bing! 😂😂
He is only in the lead because of all the bots and threats and bullying, scaring ppl even TERRORIZING PPL. Its all being investigated and when the truth comes out. PPL will be soo sick of the CONSTANT CON!!!
I predict that 6 months later he will be proven wrong and he's going to claim that people are threatening him😂😅😅😅
Woah. & today he stepped down. Looks like he was finally wrong.
He already lost all those keys 😂😂😂
Who does these crazy polls?
polsters
@@georgedixon9863 I know you're a MAGA troll but is it a prerequisite to be illiterate, also?
Polls are a joke.
Kellyann Conway was a professional pollster before she was Trump spokesliar. Do you think she had integrity as a pollster? Just saying.
Team effort by Russia and China (plus whoever else they pay to do their dirty work)🤔🧐🤓👿😈
You sure correctly picked Biden all right lol
This is the first guy I've seen in the last year who predicted Trump's victory and I never wait long enough till the end to see who they choose for 2024 because it scares the holy f****** s*** out of me
Yes, if Biden wins, we are all screwed big time!
Need help packing
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Bye, you wont be missed. Take that professor with you.
@@j.d.v.bye
0:34 I'm willing to cut him a little slack on the 2000 election since that is the third closest Presidential election in U.S. history (only behind 1876 and 1824), and he did give Al Gore the maximum number of false keys that a presidential candidate could have while still losing the election, so it really isn't that big of a failure.
1:22 And remember Dewey beat Truman. Okay, that may be a false equivalency because polling now isn't the same as it was in 1948 but it's still something to note.
"Tell me everything, pretend it's just you and me"
My dirty mind: 😏
Get some help.
Call me crazy but I don't think his prediction about Biden is correct....just a hunch
the real winner are the rich, middle and poor are suffering from both
Agreed
Exactly. But Biden said “” hey billionaire s pay your fair share “. Hahaha. Bill gates sent in 1 penny after hearing that speech
Is actually the middle class only the poor get the benefits the middle class get nothing and pay the most tax
He has to re state. It's against kamela
What are these polls and where do they do the? I’ve never been polled on shit.
Neither this nor Biden aged well..
Imagine going to school to become a Broadcast journalist only to be a complete sell-out and just read and do what you are told.
You mean becoming a FOX News 'journalist'?!
@@MogensDam Both sides are selling out, let's be honest. Throughout history, News outlets have been used for propaganda, lies and misinformation.
I did but never used it for that very reason.
I feel more sorry for all the med students who will discover that most of what they have learned is a lie.
@@daisy1441 Care to explain? The human body hasn’t changed much over several thousand years.🤣 If you’re referring to medications and treatments, are you one of those who promotes bleach to fight Covid?
America Was Is and will Be Great NOT because of Trump. Because of We the People of the United States”. 🇺🇸 VOTE!!!!
We the people STAND UNITED ❤️
I was always curious about that. "Great again" like when? Before the Civil Rights act? Before women had voting rights?
The Puritan Republicans in Arizona are resurrecting an abortion law from before the Civil War, so it's not so far fetched to believe they'd want that.
America was greatest during the periods of time when the USA was the world’s only superpower. That was true in 1945-1955, and in 1992-2011. But now China is a superpower as well, and making Trump President again won’t change that.
@@timonsolus That's a good argument for the era when the US was dominant in the world. I don't see that as synonymous with 'great' though. 1945-1950's was the initial ramp to the cold war. Scary times.
The Civil Rights Act was not passed until 1964, so racial minorities would probably not consider those years 'great.'
Agreed that Trump never had much clue on foreign policy. He wouldn't even read security briefings.
I've always wondered what "MAGA" means to each of the people wearing the hats. Some are obviously flying Confederate flags, but most probably don't have much concept of 'Again' except as some abstract rebellious phrase.
I’ve never been polled and no one I know has.
Never believe people.
Well then... If it hasn't happened to you then it must not have happened, right? God help us.
@@tomtompkins7546 you missed the point in your haste respond.
Where did I say polling never happened?
Well, this aged nicely.😅
Guess he was wrong about Biden isn't he. Lol
I have a very, very hard time believing that Biden will be reelected.
Who are these people who would vote for Biden? Our country is a mess.
@@RalphEwell-s5oSome people like Presidents who DON’T let their Capital be sacked and defiled, or who don’t let elections fall into “massive fraud” on their watch, then burn millions in tax payer dollars to find nothing and prosecute no one for the fraud.
And the jobs and stock market numbers are much better under Biden.
people who don't want America to be a Christian autocracy
I think rfk jr has a good chance
Our Country is not a mess! Let's Go Biden
Seems like a smart guy. I like how he’s just sticking to facts…I would imagine he’s got a better chance of an accurate prediction than everyone else trying to guess how people feel about the candidates.
They only pull a thousand people at a time. I don't see how any poles can be right because a lot of people could change their minds.
Polling this far out is rarely accurate.
At this point, Dukakis was leading by 15 points in 1988. He lost in a landslide to Bush 1.
@@s1lm4r1l6 if Trump or Biden wins it will be a disaster anyway. I'm voting for Kennedy
We are also talking about people willing to answer a unknown number. Not many people i know that will answer a unknown number.
@@elmosweed4985 yep
Yep
The world just watched Trump salute while Amazing Grace played... 🤦🏽♀️ *This prediction makes me Sooo Happy* 😊
Did you miss Biden crapping his pants? Falling down stairs? Attempting to shake someone’s hand who wasn’t even there?
@@UncleBen-h2ydid you enjoy trumps speech yesterday about electric boats shocking the water.
@@UncleBen-h2y we don't want fascism. It's that simple
Biden walking around lost and unable to complete a full sentence is so much better 😂 or Maybe you think you need to vote for him to be black 😂😂😂
@@UncleBen-h2yhasn't that been diaper don in the last month? all the while biden has been shown to be active and far more coherent
To hell with polls. VOTE.
For trump 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲
Exactly!
As if voting helps. It's already been done without voters. 🎉
❤
Aged like milk ! 🍼 😂