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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 ต.ค. 2023
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The Rule of 15.
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What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates?
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Thanks for sharing. Didn't know that HK property has crashed.
My friend who is staying in HK says although prices have declined a lot, it is still very expensive to buy a home in HK. So, maybe, more room to fall?
Hi AK. Thanks for the post. I’m a new follower to your TH-cam since watching your interviews on Fifth Person. Wish I had discovered your blog and investment philosophy earlier.
This sharing is an interesting POV.. Can you share in greater detail why 15 years as a benchmark? Why not 3, 10 or 30 years?
I guess what I’m trying to understand is the value of the formula it’s pegged against. Cos I’m just thinking out loud. If I’m 35 buying a home, my max loan tenure is 30 years vs if I’m 50 then it’s 15 years. So should there be a disparity on that formula to base the calculation on? Or are you using some other matrix? Looking forward to your further sharing.
Rule of 15 has been around for a long time, longer time than my blog which started in 2009. 😅
It is a guide based on what average normalized interest rates would look like.
So, in the video, I converted it into rental yield to make it easy to see from the perspective of an investor. If the risk free rate is 4% to 5%, then, a rental yield of 2% or 3% is grossly inadequate.
The Rule of 15 demands a gross rental yield of 6.66%. See how it works? 🙂
Remember, I am just sharing what has worked for me. It says "Rule of 15" but it isn't really a rule. 😉
Hi AK, this is the first time I heard such valuable advice about property. Thanks
however, i like to check with u. this rule of 15, does it make sense for the overall property market? for example, commercial property, office property, etc. not just for homes or private housings (condo/landed)
sorry for the silly question, but I like to make sure
Not a silly question at all. From what I understand, this was with reference to residential property. I have no idea if it could be or should be applied to other types of property. 🤔
Auction listings and foreclosures need to go up 1st. Many might have overpaid a good asset into a bad investment. A reversion to the mean always happen to keep the market and economy healthy and sustainable. yes given another 6 months , signs will be clearer. The “going south”has just begun. Like diarrhoea, it will be holding and holding, then it gets ugly fast and really quickly. Govt and Banks will be very important actors in that play.😅 keep cash safe.
"Like diarrhea, it will be holding and holding, then it gets ugly fast and really quickly." 😱
Hi AK, agreed with your Rule of 15, but only applies to HDB resale/BTO, not for private properties...
Renting a 2b condo OCR cost average $3.5k & with R15 applied, renting 15y will cost only $630k but buying a 2b condo min $1.2m
For sure, private properties in Singapore would fail the Rule of 15 now. But these properties are for the financially more capable and the truly rich can ignore the Rule of 15.
For most of us, the Rule of 15 is relevant. It is a reminder for us to be financially prudent and not overextend ourselves when buying a home.
This is especially pertinent in an environment where interest rates have gone much higher.
We have TDSR limit so the holding power is there
Hi. Thks for analysis. Which year property start rising to gauge the 15 years cycle downturn? Which year will property decline ? When the bank interest for property reduce and to what percentage? Maybe the review can be streamline to focus more on local property. Thanks.
If I have the answer to all your questions, I would not be the poor marginal millionaire I am today.
What is your answer to question in your title?
@@Phuamt It's a rhetorical question.
new measure for BTO's rules likely will have to solve demand issue where ppl cannot be choosy in projects or they forbidden to BTO within 1 year. lets hope this stablized the market rather than keeping the price moon like no tml.
🤞
One thing I find challenging to rationalize is your estimate that 40-50% of mortgage buyers are in financially distressed conditions. Given that one can borrow from HDB (resale or BTO) at low interest rates, how does this translate to such a high % of buyers facing issues with their interest rates? Borrowing is still inexpensive for HDB, which, in turn, pushes the prices up, considering the ability to borrow at low rates in this high-interest-rate environment. Furthermore, most homeowners have locked in their houses at lower principal amounts. It's only in recent years, with increased money printing, that property prices have surged by 50%. Could you provide more information on how this could potentially lead to a catastrophic credit event scenario, even if a recession were to occur in Singapore? Because I see that majority of Singapores have sufficient war chest (e.g. CPF) saved up along the years.
"Could you provide more information on how this could potentially lead to a catastrophic credit event scenario, even if a recession were to occur in Singapore?"
I didn't say that this would lead to a credit event.
I said 40% experiencing "mortgage stress" in Singapore was reported by OCBC in a study done in 2022.
The number went up from 31% in 2021 to 40% in 2022. It could be 45% to 50% now with interest rates much higher from 2022 to 2023. Will have to wait for the survey results next year to be sure.
Many HDB flats buyers switched to loans from the banks during the years of ultra low interest rates and could not switch back to borrowing from HDB.
You could do a Google to find the article regarding survey done by OCBC.
@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor, I apologize for any confusion. Let me rephrase my question: How might the current situation potentially lead to an increase in mortgage payment defaults among Singaporean homeowners, enough to result in fire sales of their properties or a decline in property prices?
You've made a valid point about some Singaporeans switching from HDB loans to bank loans. However, it's worth noting that fixed-rate loans are currently at 3.3% for a 2-year term for completed properties, which is not significantly higher than the CPF rate of 2.5%. Furthermore, property prices have appreciated considerably. I find it challenging to see how owners who purchased their properties in 2021 or earlier would struggle with mortgage payments.
I refer to a survey that indicates 40% of homeowners are experiencing mortgage stress. In 2020, a similar survey showed that 38% faced the same issue. However, I haven't observed any significant decline in property values. In fact, the market remained resilient and even experienced a surge thereafter. Neither were there any significant defaults.
In this context, our property market appears to have stabilized, with homeowners having more savings, higher wages due to inflation, and locked-in principal loans. Consequently, significant amount of property owners may be less inclined to sell at lower prices since they will still be able to pay their mortgage with their higher savings
In the video, you mentioned that interest rates will be "higher for longer", and Chamath has considered it to extend beyond 2024. Considering several factors in the United States, such as an upcoming election, pressure to lower interest rates, declining inflation, media discussions about 3% inflation becoming the new norm, and challenges in sustaining a "higher for longer" interest rate policy due to foreign treasury sales by China and Japan, as well as increasing issues in the banking sector, it's possible to conclude that the Federal Reserve may declare victory and start reducing interest rates slowly next year. In this scenario, I believe all real hard assets in Singapore will go up again...
@@KBL1991 "... our property market appears to have stabilized, with homeowners having more savings, higher wages due to inflation, and locked-in principal loans."
That's why I say that having emergency funds and savings will help to tide over bad times. However, if interest rates stay higher for longer or increase further, when the time comes to refinance in the next year or two, we might see things go bad, especially if there is a recession and job loss at the same time.
"... it's possible to conclude that the Federal Reserve may declare victory and start reducing interest rates slowly next year. "
That is definitely a possibility and I hope it happens too. However, if inflation stays high, then, the Fed might be stuck between a rock and a hard place...
I do not know what will happen in the future, of course. I say this all the time.
This video is about staying grounded and cautious.
I used to save up together w my wife for a condo as 2nd property investment until i read ya blog and understand more on personal finance. I then decided not to borrow money putting myself into financial stress and invested in equities instead. I now prefer to be a lender than a borrower without taking any unnecessary risk and still getting good returns from risk-free gov bonds or FD.
Wow! I like the way your think! Even the Singapore government is borrowing money from you! Oops 🙊
@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. I need the gov to work harder for me. Be it gov bonds or cpf. Can't win the system, beat the system!
@@netviper huat ah! 🥳
Renting in Singapore (for long term) still doesn’t make sense.
I did a quick calculation… that 15 years’ rental is almost 2 times the cost of my apartment!
Yes, BTO.
BTO for the win! 🥳
SG property biggest landlord is the government, they are behind to support like and had various tested strategy in place: Crisis like Covid just wave mortgage payment, price dropped just increase subsidization to resale HDB for those stay near relative, demand dropped just increase population like period after 2009 global financial crisis, rental demand dropped just tighten the numbers of tenant allowed per HDB unit etc etc. The government will never allowed itself to be in such big trouble else next Election will be very challenging. What we see during property crash in 1997 Asia financial crisis will very unlikely to happened in SG liao..
Government power! 🥳
Interesting thanks.
Sing residential collapse = SGX REIT collapse?
In a recession, all classes of real estate should see prices coming down.
The issue now is that if we enter a recession next year, we could be doing so in an environment of much higher interest rates.
This could lead to even more aggressive repricing of risk assets downwards.
REITs certainly won't be spared. Mr. Market is aware of this and we see REITs' unit prices retreating already.
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. Indeed. REITs retreating now...... or collapsing? Lend-lease hit 50c today and Sasseur at 52 week low. Was buying the dip but stopped, as the 'dip' appears to be a big empty bucket..,
@@robertdagge200 Low can go lower, for sure. I would wait for the dust to settle. That was what I did during the pandemic before adding to my investments in the banks.
Hello ak.
Rule of 15 , is it application to sg market property?
Let say we rent a hdb 3k per mth for 15yrs, we take back nothing after 15yrs. However if we buy and after 15 yr if we sell it, we can take back the money.
Did i miss out something.?
Apprecite if u can tok to yourself.
In the video, I already said that we should buy a BTO HDB flat as it passes the rule with flying colors. Don't rent.
he said hdb is viable to purchase rather than rent especially bto ...
@@aravearave Yeap. Die die must buy BTO HDB flat. 😁
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. The problem with BTO is the qualifying income restriction💰👩❤️👨
and luck plays the crucial (3分靠打拼，7分天注定)! 🤔
Have a friend who initially qualified for BTO (but applied unsuccessfully for donkey years)
but as their income prosper, 💰📈📈📈💪
they lost the golden ticket to board BTO train! 🎯❌
@@lovelyday20121 Well, the financially more capable should not compete with people who are less so. 🤭
First time heard about rule of 15. Interesting take! But 6.6% rental yield is on the high side, don't you think so?
6.6% is sensible. It isn't high when risk free rate is 4% to 5%. 🤭
People got so used to the low interest rate environment that we had until 18 months ago. 😅
Younger folks have no memory of the times when interest rates were much higher. 🙈
Why hold risk assets if they do not sufficiently compensate us for holding them? 🤔
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. Yes I agree, the higher the % the better for the buyer. But I personally do not have the patience to wait for years for the housing price to come down. Rental cost will also go up over time (hopefully). Agree that low interest rates in the past 18 months was a bit crazy
@@BoonTee You meant low interest rates prior to the past 18 months, I am sure. 😅
To be sure, I am not saying that we must wait for prices to come down. It depends on our circumstances. If we need to buy a home urgently for whatever reason, we have to buy. 🤭
However, if we are buying investment properties and don't care enough to pay a more reasonable price, thinking that the high rental rates we saw in the past one year or so is the norm, we could be disappointed. I am speaking from experience. 😅
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. listen to the experienced veteran like AK! Thanks for all the sharing!
@@BoonTee Alamak. Don't like that say. Paiseh lah. Your comment has pushed me to work on a new video. Akan datang! 🤭
I got a question about rule of 15, current rental yield is 5-9%,rule of 15 very hard to achieve especially for private properties if we are real estate investor,the house must be very undervalued and we must bargain and hunt for value deals, very tedious 😅
Tedious, don't do, don't buy. 🤭
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor.😂😂
@@valuabletips560 🤣🤣
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. on a serious note, 6.6% yield + us long term inflation of 2.5% =9.1% close to snp500 long term annualized return, coincidence? 🤔🤗 possible to calculate appreciation growth of property prices? Or too speculative? Please share your thoughts
@@valuabletips560 We can all speculate as to how much property prices would increase in the next few decades, of course. I just don't want to do it. If I must waste time, I rather waste it playing video games. 🤭
I think there is a fundamental point you have overlooked with regards to Singapore property. That is ABSD. The government over a period of over 10 years now has suppressed demand by imposing ABSD, that can be hugely significant if you are a foreign buyer. Imagine what would happen if, tomorrow, the ABSD was removed? Prices would soar. Because many of those who were "forced" out in the last 10 years could now buy. Therefore it is dead easy for the Singapore government to avoid a price crash. The answer is with the ABSD.
On the point re the rule of 15. I am not an agent, however it is "dangerous advice". I bought my Singapore property (private) in 2006. Since that time it has risen in value over 3 times. If I add to that the saving in rent payments it would be over 4 times. I believe, with hindsight, that 2006 was the property cycle low. BUT EVEN THEN, the property I bought did not meet the rule-of-15. It would have met the rule of 22 though. Thank goodness I did not hear about the rule-of-15 back then and get put off buying. The ~$1m that I am better off today, as a result of that purchase is a signficant contributor to my wealth.
Thanks for sharing your experience.
Personally, I have always used the Rule of 15 in the purchase of properties to avoid overpaying.
So, it has worked for me.
My first home which I bought had a gross yield of 8% during SARS. My second home which I am staying in now had a gross yield of 6.6%, and this I bought when Mr. Market was feeling pessimistic after multiple rounds of cooling measures in 2012.
For the record, I am not giving any advice.
Just talking to myself, as usual.
We have been fortunate that in Singapore, property prices have been going up consistently in the past few decades.
However, we could also suffer a lost decade or two like what happened in Japan in future.
Who can tell for sure?
So, I rather stay prudent and err on the side of caution.
@@JRambonian My current home has gone up 70% in value since. And if I were to rent it out, the gross yield is now 5% based on today's market value. It is ok if you don't like the Rule of 15. Doesn't matter to me.
@@JRambonian Don't like staying in Geylang. Didn't even look.
@@JRambonianThat is for sure and I said so in the video. It is just a preliminary check.
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor.Absolutely agree. Will not go wrong to err on the safe side and live within your means.
Hi ak, how did you buy your house and still meet the rule of 15? Are prices that cheap back then?
I bought when Mr Market was feeling pessimistic. Did not buy when showflats were crowded with FOMO people. I remember being the only person in the showflat during SARS, for example. No property agent, the developer had one of their staff manning the place.
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. when prices is depressed so is the rental.
@@JRambonian It is not always the case that when prices are depressed, so is the rental.
A few years ago, I blogged about how my dad's friend bought properties in Singapore during the Gulf War. Prices plunged but rental stayed the same back then.
I was making a point about affordability and value for money in that blog post.
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. why not just share the condo name for reference. Thats not what i know during 2003 to 2006. 3br condo in D15 was only 2.5k pm averagely. I still remember 3rm hdb flat was $800 haha
@@JRambonian I already replied to your comment in another viewer's comment in response to this video.
So, I would appreciate if you stop badgering me.
If you don't believe me or trust me, just stop watching my videos and reading my blogs. Good for both of us.
How many percentage of bank interest is considered normalised? In the end of your review, what is your conclusion on your question?
Interest rates at zero or close to zero was abnormal. It encouraged reckless behavior with little or no consideration of risk.
Normalized is a reversion to mean and avoiding extremes.
However, there is a real danger now of interest rates going higher from where they are now.
How many %? Your guess is as good as mine.
Hence, my reminder to exercise caution.
@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. how can bank interest near zero? U r not answering
@@Phuamt You just have to do a search online and you will find plenty of examples of countries with zero or even negative interest rates in the past.
Noted. Thks
IREIT has crashed. Song boh? All time low, even lower than COVID March 2020.
It is very unfortunate.
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. Continue to set new low today. At this rate, I guess your invested capital will be extinguished in no time, no matter the dividend amount.
@@wmokk I very much doubt that IREIT would go to zero.
i dunno much, but what i have hear alot is many people are leaving HK, even hongkongers migrating oversea, due to HK China issue.
and foreigners are still coming to SG. one reason COE also keep going up.
The last time something like this happened, the PAP lost big in the General Election...
@@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor.this is nothing la. In the end they are still the dominating party. HK property prices is expected le. People lari cos no future until CCP de. Singapore different, all the rich or capable or both want to flock to Singapore. Singapore has limited land too and too many rounds of property measures for property prices to crash. The government won't let it happen. The price to pay is too heavy!😂
@@makwoon3635 Hope for the best but prepare for the worst is all I can do. 😅
I agree w you about being prudent when purchasing a property. But I do not agree with your analysis of renting over buying a property. We can have nothing but must have a roof over our head. Anita scenario is definitely different…. She must be aiming a bungalow and that’s why she is not willing to pay the money
All Hong Kong homes are very expensive. You just have to do some research and you will see for yourself. It is a matter of proportion. Bungalows or condos. They are all the same.
With the rule of 15 is pretty much looking for a place to buy outright with a mortgage of 15 years?
The Rule of 15 is a reminder for us to be financially prudent and not overextend ourselves when buying a home.
This is especially pertinent in an environment where interest rates have gone much higher.
It does not suggest what kind of home loan or for how long the loan should be.
@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor.
Too bad in Australia no one listened and now we have the highest household debt in the world.. who would of thought 😂😂 we could learn some frugality or fiscal policies from our Singaporean neighbours
@@MrAnderson3 Well, we have our own problems in Singapore. There is plenty of unhappiness when it comes to prices of homes too. Oh, don't forget cars. 🤭
@A.Singaporean.Stocks.Investor. I can imagine how expensive it is in Singapore, I think your housing schemes are a bit more achievable for the average person though? Or are the 10 minutes clips I see on YT over simplifying it? 🤣
@@MrAnderson3 You are right. Thank goodness we have good public housing. More expensive these days but still within reach for most people.
Many home owner fully paid their loan especially those over 45 years old, the report if true applied only to those with mortage. The best investment in singapore is property, our population target long term is 10million.
Most Singaporeans are asset rich. Not a bad thing per se. 😊
When you are old, Liquidity is more important than Assets
@@DonYang73 That is the hard truth!
@@DonYang73 property can rent out mah. I retired at 53 even my CPF got only less than 1k. Lol
@@DonYang73 buy a few more to collect rental lam then can get a stream of passive income every month.
Hard to crash. Sg too many rich people. Coe hv reach 152k...nxt level is 200k
Yeah. Rich people can ignore the Rule of 15. 🤭
I like your videos. However I have to disagree with you. Singapore government will not let the property market crash. They can simply loosen the ABSD and tweak the system to allow more foreigners, including the hundreds of family offices to buy.
Dun buy! Just byebye!! 😁
🤣🤣🤣
Singapore government will not let the property crash. They will just loosen the rules and people will continue to buy property,, even though it is at a slower rate.
Will just have to wait and see. It doesn't matter to me if property prices crash or not, of course. Just don't want people to become casualties in case it happens. 😷
With the escalating BTO prices, maybe even BTO cannot meet the rule of 15.
I blogged about this before. A BTO HDB flat in CCK, easy. A BTO flat in a mature estate, harder. We have choices. 🤭
Rule of 15 means... i should rent landed liao... because rental 8 to 12k X 15 years X 12 months means i couldnt fully it paid it lol
Aiyoh. I cannot wrap my head around those numbers... 🤯
AK, people keep talking about HIGH interest rates but realistically it is just normalising. Average Fed Funds rate in 2007 was 5.02%. It was only after 15 years of close to zero rates that people think that this is normal. Look at the historical rates for the past 62 years. I remember in the late 1970s interest rates were 20% and 10 year US bonds had a coupon of 19%. Those are high rates. Your title is a bit misleading. Foreclosure in HK has gone up by 36% but the actual number is only 271. It has not crashed. Property prices in HK will continue to decline slowly not crash due to high equity requirements by the banks. Any property over HK$10m required 50% down payment which means the price of a tiny 700 sq foot flat! People should remember things that can’t go up forever never do. The Bloomberg article in the Straits Times did not care to delve into the size and area of the flats are in. Such information also matter to gauge whether there is property crash. What happened in the US in 2008 was a crash.
Excellent video today. I completely forgot about the rule of 15.😮
"it is just normalising." 💯
"Your title is a bit misleading. Foreclosure in HK has gone up by 36% but the actual number is only 271."
Oops. I just followed the headline in the newspaper. 🙊
I don’t agree with this rule as well. Many who bought their property before 2021 would have realised good appreciation. While it’s true interest was high last yr but current fixed rate came down to 3.1%. Imagine if they have rented and how crazy rental has been last 3 years, instead of paying down a mortgage and owning an asset u r helping someone pay off their loan.
Happy that things turned out well. ☺
My friend just brought AMK BTo 840k,any chance to recover back ?
Aiyoh, I don't know. Don't ask me. I stress. 😷
First comment!
🥳
Hong Kong is undergoing rapid STRUCTURAL corrections whereas Singapore will only experience cyclical corrections. Singapore will not follow suit UNLESS Singapore aspires to be a province of the PRC🤣
Those million dollars flat won't be able to qualify for Rule of 15! 🧐
5 room Dawson Road flat at $1.2m
Monthly rental: $5k
$5k X 12 months X 15 years = $900k
👉It would take more than 20 years 🔥
($1.2m/$60,000)
for the monthly rental
to pay for this 5-rm resale flat.
Resale flat might not pass Rule of 15 because of market forces.
Must buy BTO HDB flats. Only Those will pass Rule of 15 comfortably.
Those older resale flats selling at reasonable price will pass rule of 15! 💡✔️
Dover Crescent 5-rm flat (Blk 56, 10-12 floor, 56 years lease left) sold at $780k.
Monthly rental: $4.5k
$4.5k X 12 months X 15 years = $810k
BTO not so easy to attain! 🎯❓
Plus need immense patience to wait till completion! ☃️⏳
As tough as tiok Toto leh!😓
@@lovelyday20121 Yes, that's what I would do. Look for value for money. You have cracked the code. 😊
@@lovelyday20121 It is our entitlement as Singaporeans. 🤭
In HK , all trying to escape. They just opened the door this year to another 300K immigrants and COE huat til Kingdom come. If property goes down they just open the door to another 1 million high net worth from China.
General election coming soon... Must think carefully how I cast my vote. 🤭
True blue vote not important liao
@@wowokingxoxo I must keep quiet for now. Later get asked to lim kopi. 🤭
Never watch video already got people post in comment 😂😂 anyway plain bagel posted about canadian housing crisis so i think there might be a housing bubble going on
🧋🤭
SINGAPORE NUMBA ONE
Pog!
7000 soon
🥳🥳🥳
in 1st
🥳
Singapore property will only collapse if Worker Party becomes the government 😂😂😂 that why WP dare not become government or form opposition alliance, because WP MP own many properties too 😂😂😂 so all the talk by WP to help Singaporean are bullshit. No power how to help? KPKB got use meh? WP KPKB for the last 20 years also nothing happened 😂😂😂
🤔🤔🤔
Basically, the "Rule of 15" says that 💡
if we could BUY a HOME
at a price that is 15 TIMES (or LESS) 🎯📉🏠
the annual rent a similar property would fetch in the area,
it makes MORE SENSE to BUY than to rent.
-ASSI blog, Feb 3, 2023
"I know friends who think that Singapore's economy will continue to boom
and investing in real estate here is a NO BRAINer
as prices will only continue to go UP.
Well, I am not saying that they are definitely wrong
but it would be prudent for them to contemplate the POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE.
In our personal finances, if we
- Save MORE,
- INVEST Wisely and
- have LESS Debt,
we cannot go very wrong.
June 2, 2013
Updated July 2018
Have a Gen X friend (54 years old) with 4 young kids (age 2-14) purchased a 4 bedroom condo (upgrade from fully paid 5 room flat)
as he was seizing the opportunity to take advantage of low hanging fruit! 😶
The couple (both are professional, wife in her 30's) plans to migrate back to HDB flat
after 3 years of attas lifestyle, however they are caught by a cooling measure 🔥
(Private property owners need to serve a wait-out period of 15 months 💤⏳🎯
after the disposal of their private properties
before they are eligible to buy a non-subsidised resale flat.)
on 30 Sep 2022.
They are unwilling to settle for a smaller 4 room flat though!
OMG! You doing CSI? 😅
@@lovelyday20121 You are definitely doing CSI! 😮
@@lovelyday20121 We have choices in life but sometimes we have to bow to externalities. 😷