Worth noting that 4 of those 10 teams are in the Atlantic division. The other 4 teams in that division being almost playoff locks for the last several years has to play a factor
@@b-ricemarsh5210 Still irks me that Columbus pushed Boston to 6 that year, it would've been crazy to see St Louis vs Columbus in the final that year.. even if Blues still win that imo.
@ That one in 17 was half decent. And we had a couple of great ones in 2000’s. But it’s now been seven years of the same old shit. We can’t even beat Buffalo and the sodding Habs. Tough times mate.
Yeah, we HAVE had good teams, no hardware except an eastern conference champs, but recent events (notably the last 2-3 years) have been so frustrating just not being able to make that last consistent step
Last year was the statement to make and everything went down the shitter. I've only been to 1 game in 5 years and that was from a giveaway that I entered for free.
@ So true mate. I actually didn’t mind the first few years of the rebuild. Playing spoiler, watching the lads develop but the last two years and 13 games have been utter dogshit.
My point exactly, a league where a third or more of all teams is in a perpetual state of rebuild is boring. Every year it's the same teams competing. The same teams suck. And the second they get a bit better ticket prizes surge. Thanks for putting out this majestic video, Shannon.
As a Minnesota fan, we've been stuck in limbo since the inception of the Wild franchise. Not bad enough for a rebuild, but not good enough to win in the playoffs lol.
I'm a Habs fan. I always keep an eye on the Wild. Guerin iron the right track. Chasing Suter and his buddy out of town had to be done. This years start is nice to watch. Good luck
The NHL wants to add teams to the league. They've decided to promote and push those teams. The draft has been changed to help or hurt teams. The never ending rebuilds are here to stay.
That and the expansion draft that Vegas got was pure larceny. A sign of the times I suppose. It's inevitable the league will end up at 36 teams though at some point, 18 a side.
As a Wings fan, this never ending rebuild is our penance for being arguably the best team in the league for a quarter of a Century. The Hockey Gods giveth and they taketh.
Super real...you look at teams like this and think, "you're in that window. Better get some metal out of it." Detroit did, Chicago did, Tampa did. RIP teams who got nothing out of that window (Nashville, San Jose, Ottawa, Philly, Columbus?) and it's closing or already closed...
One thing that will extend a rebuild is failing to start. Look at Chicago. Swept in the first round in 2017, 7th in the Central in 17-18, 6th in 18-19. Waited 3 more years to start rebuild.
@BHox01 There is almost no difference between the CURRENT average age of Crosby/Malkin/Letang vs Kane/Toews/Keith. Kane and Toews are the youngest of the 6. Pittsburgh needs one ofvthe big 3 to agree to go to get the ball rolling. If Sid goes at all, he won't be first.
They obviously knew about Bedard and waited juuust long enough to suck bad enough to tilt those ping pong balls enough to land him over two other teams worse than themselves but those two didn't have the TV market to influence the outcome. Celebrini might've gone 1st (finally for the Sharks) but he's certainly no generational talent. Funny how that works.
For those of us who remember only 5 teams missing the playoffs, do rebuilds seem longer now that 16 miss? For example, the 1980s Maple Leafs, owned and mismanaged by Harold Ballard, made the playoffs in seasons with 57 and 52 points.
Nobody really did rebuilds in the 21 team league. They’d keep the same core together for years and try to add to it. How many bad seasons did the North Stars keep coming back with Bellows, Cicerelli, Beaupre? Eventually they squeaked into the playoffs and rode some hot goaltending to a final. With a team that didn’t really change much.
Getting a “superstar” isn’t really a problem. Any team can be horrible for a few years and draft an NHL ready, top end talent. When you gut the team and don’t have the second and third rounders who will play with your “superstar” already cooking in the AHL, you will just burn your new superstars best years away.
If you're talking about the Stanley Cup that's a valid excuse, but half the league makes the playoffs every season. You just have to be mediocre to get in; you need to be pathetic to miss it more than 5 years in a row. 13 should NEVER happen.
I disagree. You need a superstar(s), but its ultimately a team game. Who can step up when it matters most/injuries occur. You need input from all 4 lines, all 3 pairs, Your goalie needs to be bulletproof, and when he gets injured the backup needs to reach down deep and do what needs to be done. Oilers and Leafs are a great examples. Mcdavid and Draisaitl can't put the team on their back. Matthews/Marner/Nylander can't put the team on their back. I think it ultimately comes down to your top line producing at a good rate, secondary scoring from your other lines, timely saves from your goalies, and who can step up and fill holes when guys get banged up. They don't say it's the hardest championship in sports for nothing.
The drafting helps once you have a stable system and team. Eventually it will happen but it prolongs the need to. I do think the increased Cap Space moving forward helps as well
Personally, I believe that a rebuild is partially connected to whether or not you hit on some of your draft picks or not. Especially if you're stocking up on draft picks as the sole method of strengthening your roster. I think that there's a happy medium between solely relying on young players and acquiring some veteran players to bring in that can help to teach your draft pick players. I guess that there's no guaranteed way to rebuild quickly? If there was, every team would be doing it.
One of my favorite videos you've ever done, shannon. I really wish the "rebuild" cycle had some more shakeup to it, and of course every team does it differently, but it's no wonder teams resist doing a full rebuild as much as possible.
@@jessiegandhi4340 I’d argue that just as important, if not more so, was signing vets like Hamilton and Palat. You can draft and develop like Ottawa and Buffalo until the cows come home, but you still need that veteran presence.
The NFL is the only North American league that sees "rebuilds" conducted very quickly. The NBA is probably 2nd, although superstars move around so much that it's not a good example. But when you make a pick in the 1st round of the NFL draft, you're drafting a player who you expect to START as a rookie. 2nd - 4th rounders are expected to make your final roster and contribute off the bench. 5th, 6th and 7th rounders are often special teamers or practice squad guys who work their way up in year 2. If the NHL changed the draft age from 17/18 to 19/20, you'd have players stepping into the league ready to make an immediate impact. A team could sell off veterans at the deadline, make 3 picks in the first round of the draft, and be a fringe playoff team again in 2 seasons or less. Now, the downside is thrice every decade when you get a McDavid, Matthews, Bedard etc who can dominate the league at 18 or 19, you miss out on them coming into the league early. But for the vast majority of players and teams, an older draft age would result in more competitive teams. The new NCAA rules on CHL players could make this concept a reality in my opinion.
Most positions in football lend themselves to having short careers so maintaining an extended period of dominance is very difficult. Basketball teams are so small that you can’t turn the whole team over quickly. Baseball is really the best comparison to Hockey. Very few draft age players are ready for prime time, and your team has a whole lot of moving parts.
@@Nightshiftzombie If you look at the numbers all four of the major sports the average career is short also the numbers do not tell the whole story if you become a starter in the NFL you have a much longer career the Chiefs have been good for a long time.
Best example of this is Washington vs. Pittsburgh. Couple years ago, both were seen as teams on the decline with aging rosters in a similar boat. Pittsburgh doubled down on aging players to get back to elite level, while Washington sold at the deadline without going the rebuild route. Looking at today, Washington's re-tool was extremely successful whereas Pittsburgh seems destined for a re-build. Moral of the story: you don't have to tear it down to the base 's re-tool was extremely successful whereas Pittsburgh seems destined for a re-build with years of franchise-damaging bottom-feeding.
Washington seems to have excellent scouts and excellent development staff, getting the most of guys these rebuilding teams wouldn't. No offense to guys like McMichael and Protas, but I bet they wouldn't look nearly as good in most of these rebuilding teams.
Some teams, Buffalo in particular, have been rebuilding this long because of some degree of bad luck and outright bad management; they had one rebuild (the Eichel era team) that outright failed and so transitioned into basically a second rebuild without ever being genuinely good in between. A lot of the others on this chart are just in one rebuild. The way rebuilds tend to work now is a consequence of the totality of how the NHL is set up, including: 1) the hard salary cap (you can't just add as many pieces as you want at a given moment); 2) guaranteed contracts (can't just cut underperforming players); 3) the draft/ELC/RFA/UFA structure (great players generally don't have any chance of reaching free agency until the majority of their prime years have already been played); and 4) NTCs and NMCs in contracts that functionally limit the ability of many teams to trade for great players based on location, tax incentives, or whatever else. The thing is, the cumulative impact of most of these rules are to make the league more competitive than it otherwise would be, it just takes a while for teams to cycle through a rebuild. But if you manage well and have a little draft luck, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The leagues that show what the opposite of most of this looks like are European soccer leagues, pretty much all of which are monopolized by a handful of big-spending destination teams that are never seriously challenged. The English Premier League has a rotating cast of twenty clubs, but in the past twenty seasons they have had a grand total of _five_ champions: Manchester City (8), Manchester United (5), Chelsea (5), Liverpool (1), and Leicester City (1). Probably 16-17 of the 20 clubs enter a given season knowing they have no realistic chance of winning the title. And this is in a league where disparities in location, etc. are much less than they would be in the NHL if it operated like that. There's no ideal system. We don't want an NHL dominated by a handful of super-clubs. We don't want small market teams to have no prayer of ever winning anything. We also don't want players to have basically no labour rights.
Eichel Rebuild failed due to a number of reasons, mostly pointing to Tim Murray's tenure as a GM and the fact that they completely destroyed their prospect pipeline and only recently in 2020-2021 had made legitimate efforts to rebuild their AHL and ECHL team. The prospect pipeline may seem insignificant, but you need those players to give your top guys a less stress filled way to build their game. Players like Alexander Nylander is one such example of this, but also Casey Mittelstadt being another and Jack Quinn as another. These are also filled with players who will fill in top slots when your Dahlin's, Reinhart's or Eichel's are injured. Mix in with no real Hockey coach until 2021-2022 and then having a real NHL coach in 2024-2025 and you start seeing why the Sabres have had trouble making the playoffs in the past 13 years. Yeah, bad luck has been apart of it, but the biggest issue was their depth scoring and players.
great point about NTCs and NMCs in contracts, that means people don't want to go to Buffalo, Ottawa, etc, and 5 or so others and can basically back door blackball those teams. I don't have as much a problem with ELC/RFA/UFA structure because that mostly helps weaker teams. If you're in a destination city like NYC teams, it's easy to keep players, but much harder in the rustbelt.
@@pmnichol I don’t have a problem with NTC/NMCs - players should be allowed to trade down in salary in exchange for a bit more control over their career, especially when they’re at the stage in life where they have families - but it’s just objectively a fact that some player labour rights come directly at the expense of maximizing league competitiveness. I don’t think teams should be allowed to just tear up contracts and cut players either, but if all you were concerned about was speeding up rebuilds that would be an obvious thing to change.
It makes the Kings accelerated rebuild even more impressive - and more tragic, considering the 21-22 7 game Oilers loss caused premature acceleration that's doomed it just as quickly.
Would we consider the kings a retool vs a rebuild? Since they still kept Doughty and Kopitar? Think the definition of a rebuild is a bit of a moving target sometimes
@justinpalumbo2447 Yeah, it's really hard to tell. I feel like if you bottom out enough to get more than one lottery pick in a row, it's intensive enough a retool to count as a rebuild. What some teams do is so extreme it constitutes terraforming lol
@@RytheCodplayer Agreed. With positions swapped, Sabres would have had the Kraken's 22-23 and then fallen back, Sens would be last year's Preds, and Wings would be the ones with the first round exit three years running.
I’m an oilers fan, I remember our seemingly endless rebuild. It was inept management that caused that for us and it’s inept management that causes this phenomenon in the NHL. Teams consistently hire their alumni/ members of the “old boys club” (more than in other leagues IMO) and this causes the never ending rebuild phenomenon.
The Blackhawks' issue was their previous GM, who perpetually mortgaged the teams' future in pursuit of one more Cup. Had they not been forced to fire Bowman, they would probably still be hopelessly "retooling" every damn year. Upon the GM change, they had one of the league's worst prospect pools, and no draft picks to speak of, The only way to get those is to sell off your veterans. Kyle Davidson had little choice but to tear it all down to the studs, and rebuild through the draft. It's slow-going, as expected, but at least they're making progress, and have a bright future with one of the league's top prospect pools. Most of the vets are just place-holders while those kids develop. I don't think their rebuild will last as long as some of the other teams on the list.
As a jets fan I can absolutely say it is possible to do you best to put a competitive team on the ice every year. Players love leaving out franchise but chevy is an amazing general manager who finds a way to keep getting out of it when things look down in the dumps
I like the slow ebbs and flows, the fact teams windows can be open for a while, the fact some teams take their licks for years while others are like mini dynasty’s. I love the dominance of certain teams over others for the better part of decades. It makes for even greater plot lines down the road
You kinda have to luck out on a couple draft picks, you have to have at least 1 be a transformational superstar. New Jersey came out of their rebuild simply because Hischier and Hughes hit that level at the same time, Colorado made the playoffs consistently the moment Mackinnon took the jump to top 5 player
It's all about having those magic beans (picks) turn into something, while also having young players taking a step, while also making smart trades/signings, while also needing the other teams in your division to not all be monsters (Atlantic division). Failure on one or multiple of those points could mean the team is stuck in limbo, couple years of that and it's time to start again...
Fun stat I crunched recently: the last team to finish last in the NHL standings (completely bottomed out) that later made the playoffs? 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche. Every other bottomed-out team since has not been back. This is the longest span of "bottoming out doesn't work" among the big four american pro sports leagues.
I think it is a question of scouting and development. Some teams don't invest and it shows. Teams like Dallas and Minnesota have consistently found gems in sub-optimal draft spots for the last decade. Some teams just have tunnel-vision at the draft. They like a guy and are willing to pick him 20 spots ahead of where most teams have him even if value over replacement is low or other players might have more value.
If one routinely trades away draft picks and prospects in an attempt to make the spring dance one more time, one will end up in its own special circle of hell. At least, that's what happened with my boys in Detroit. Decent prospects and picks traded away for another first round exit. I'd rather they start the rebuild than prolong the inevitable. If one does it early enough, it could be done on-the-fly.
I kind of rather see this then having players self assemble super teams then anchor and set them back even more. Predators may be a small example of this...
Because other leagues are not drafting 18-year olds. NFL and NBA are drafting out of college and are immediately going to the big league. With the NHL most of the guys drafted are not seeing the NHL for at least a year or two, unless you are one of the top picks.
Besides the NFL, MLB and NBA are also super long rebuilds for a lot of teams. Baseball had the orioles tigers and royals who were all bad for a long time and you still have teams like the marlins, rockies, and Angels. NBA has the Pistons, Spurs and Hornets. I would argue that the NHL has the 2nd fastest rebuild of the big 4 sports. Hard cape league makes getting draft picks/young assets far easier as you can weaponize cap space. And Superstar players are not as important as in basketball.
Thanks for the video! I've often said regarding hockey and baseball, as well as football and basketball, fans should not allow a team to claim they are rebuilding for more than two years, then they need to roster up a team that can compete for a playoff spot, at the least. I've been lucky with the Blackhawks this century but even this current drought has me wondering why the team wasn't built to compete more readily this year, though some might say the eight or so vets they brought on board were meant to do just that. Some have panned out, most seem to be around to keep folks from taking cheap shots at Bedard. Only one team on your board has been out of the playoffs for more than a decade but any that are out half a decade or longer (half you board), aren't making the moves they need to make, and while half your board is already there, all but one on your board will be at the half decade mark as another year passes!
Hmmm . . . I wonder if a team could be made from current and former Blackhawks still playing and how good they might be, if you could afford them 😛 Artemi Panarin (LW), Dylan Strome (C), Teuvo Teravainen (RW) Alex DeBrincat (LW/RW), Connor Bedard (C), Patrick Kane (RW) Lukas Reichel (LW), Max Domi (C/W), Dominik Kubalík (LW/RW) Brandon Hagel (LW), Ryan Donato (C), Nick Schmaltz (C/RW) Gustav Forsling (D), Trevor van Riemsdyk (D) Jordan Oesterle (D), Jake McCabe (D) Seth Jones (D), Alex Vlasic (D) Calvin de Haan (D), Connor Murphy (D) Kevin Lankinen (G) Marc-Andre Fleury (G) Petr Mrázek (G)
Detroit's age is skewed by Kane, Petry, Tarasenko, Charot and Talbot.... Oh wait, that's a fifth of our team. :) Hopefully, our youngsters in GR come up next year and push these old guys out.
Ducks fan here. Eakins was for draft picks. Fired GMBM, restart with Verbeek, verbeek cleaned house brought in Cronin now looking like Cronin is a waste of time and talent. It’s frustrating for sure
Well summarized! ✅ Hopeful they will move on from Cronin..one school of GM’s will readily fire a coach when he is not delivering..the other school stays the course insisting on forcing a lost lockerroom to get it going..
It will be interesting to see how Utah fans react to this rebuild. The jazz have been the only show in town other than college sports and they have supported them through their rebuilds while keeping the arena full. Both the jazz and the yeti(😉) are in rebuilds right now as a matter of fact.
I think it’s partly about teams rebuilding and partly about the teams at the top. For every Ottawa senators and Buffalo Sabres that are constantly rebuilding, there’s a Boston bruins and Tampa bay Lightning that are almost always good and almost always contenders that these teams have to at least be in range of in the standings.
Always remember that in order for a new team to make the playoffs, a team has to drop out. In the East, it's mostly been the same teams. Tampa, TOR, Florida, Boston, Carolina, Islanders, Rangers have consistently been in the playoffs for the last few years. This year might be different, with the Islanders, Bruins, and Lightning potentially on the wrong side of the bubble, so maybe the Sabres can finally sneak it in there.
For most of those teams it’s because Toronto Boston and tampa have ran that division for damn near a decade and Florida has been amazing for the last half decade
As a Ducks fan i think a lot of people forget our GM was an alcoholic with a power trip issue and our owners had to fire him over an anonymous tip, so i feel like he screwed us over. our retool ended up becoming a whole rebuild thats taken so long to get out of
I think it is definitely worth not completely selling off all players in a rebuild, which is what the Flyers have done, but there is still ultimately some luck involved in how the rebuild goes.
Looking back at the Original 6, even the bad teams had stars, they were trying to win, they just lacked the talent or luck to get as good as the good teams in the league. But Boston took 6 years to get back into being a true competitor, the Rangers at the same time were a constant spoiler battling with Detroit often for the 4th and final playoff spot, Detroit often won because Gordie Howe was one of the best ever. The thing was, if you go back and watch games from the Rangers and Bruins playing the other clubs, they are always fun to watch, because the management tried to win and ice a competitive but young team. I think that Philosophy needs to make a comeback. If you have a team that lacks Franchise elite talent, but is working toward that, it would make watching a bottom feeder a little more entertaining. I think maybe abolishing the draft and returning to sponsored Junior systems, that puts the onus on the teams' scouting and coaching to build up the youth core over time, this way they aren't going for infinite draft picks like the 76ers in the NBA.
I think the number of rebuilding teams is also reflective of COVID and the flat cap. Teams actually couldn't rebuild because to do that, you have to dump a lot of cap to almost guarantee yourself a high draft pick. Very few teams had the cap space to take those contracts on. In the old days, you'd just trade a guy in his early 30s on a big contract to boost a contender. If you're a contender, you're right up against the cap and if you're looking to add, typically there's some salary retention going on or you're just bringing in a secondary or tertiary piece. It's hard to do a rebuild at the best of times, let alone when the cap isn't going up or only going up by a couple of million.
You mentioned baseball. Im a Rockies fan. We have some die hards like myself but each year we get told it’ll be different and then nothing happens but another 100 loss season it hurts. It’s getting hard to support. Thank god I have the avs. But I feel the teams that are stuck in that rebuild.
The key to good rebuild is to be drafting well and not trading pick and prospects when you start declining. Any year, you can bottom out and find top end forwards in the draft but you are going to need those second and third round picks (particularly defencemen) to “cook” for a while, before you add that cherry or two on the top. If you bottom out too early you end up too top heavy. (Edmonton, Toronto) and you waste the cheap years of your high end draft picks.
I don't think any team looks at it as being a 5+ year program to rebuild. But when draft picks don't pan out or trades don't work things can hit the ditch pretty fast. And the opposite happens. Look at the Canucks - couple good draft picks work out, a good GM, good coach and a couple good trades and the team turned it around in basically a year after years of foundering.
Thank you for discussing this Shannon! Ducks fan here, thought I was going crazy. Our ownership is doing everything they can to elevate the fan experience this year (new pregame show, developing the real estate around the Pond, new jerseys, etc.) EXCEPT putting a decent team on the ice. They even signed a deal with Victory+ to allow fans to stream games for free ffs, and I've barely even watched because the Ducks are hot garbage. It's very frustrating. Something needs to change.
As a Sabres fan I've thought about this a lot. One thing that isn't talked about is that the good teams are staying good longer. Guys like Chara, Bergeron, Marchand, Crosby etc... all maintained a high level late into their 30's which rarely happened in the past. Teams aren't ageing out of the playoffs like they used to. At a time when social media has made us more impatient than ever, teams actually need to be more patient then they used to. Buffalo is stuck in a cycle of playing guys when they're 18 and when they don't become super stars by 24 they give up on them and trade them away for more 18 year olds.
I think some GMs would prefer to retool instead of rebuild, but if the veteran players want to leave, the team doesn't always have a choice. If you lose your best players in free agency or have to trade them to avoid losing them for nothing and you can't attract talent, then what option are you left with? You have to use your young drafted players because they don't have a choice but to play for you. And with hockey players especially, winning is more important than money to a lot of guys. (How many times have we seen guys take less to win or be competitive?) So, even if you make the highest offer, you will lose guys who don't think they can win there.
The difference with a team like the Rangers and the others on this list is that they don't need to build through the draft as much. Free Agents just flock to them and they can rebuild very quickly. Ottawa would have to pay Panarin 16 million to play there.
The adding of new teams definitely hurt teams at the bottom of the standings. Not only are they taking a player from the rebuilding team, they're also taking one from other teams looking to take the top teams down a notch. Besides that, if the new team is good they are taking a playoff spot.
I think it is just really hard to find the sweetspot. If you are the Rangers with a couple of good players on the roster, have a Panarin willing to sign, all you need is a couple of seasons to restructure, get the young guns that are now driving the team and you're done. That's what I think the Flames should go through, maybe Nashville if they don't turn it around - and yes, with Weber and Price healthy that would've been the way for my Habs. Speaking of them and turning to Pittsburgh and San Jose - if you lose too many (hiw many is too many, San Jose only needed Pavelski to leave) top players in a short period of time or ifyour core is so old and expensive, that it makes a quick retool difficult, you are somewhat in need of a rebuild. But then there is Washington - so..... It's not easy to find the spot I'd say, but I agree, in a lot of cases it could be faster (thinking of LA too)
It was nice when the Ducks were a top ten team in the league for a decade and some more. I think the Getzlaf and Perry contracts were understandable, but made retooling difficult. The Bieksa and Kessler contracts were brutal in that regard. The rebuild seems to be gaining traction. They haven't drafted great to be honest. Some guys haven't hit their potential, but a lot of their 1sts and 2nds didn't pan out between 2016 and 2020. That has delayed the turnaround the most in my opinion.
The eternal rebuild is hell, but there is a logic to it. Teams cannot compete on salary, but they can have guaranteed talent for several years thanks to when free agency starts. I'm not arguing how successful it will be versus trading and signing well, but a lot of the "Dynasty" teams had two or three key picks. Glad you mentioned baseball. That is even worse where teams like Pittsburgh and Kansas City to name two, are like farm teams for the Yankees. They receive nothing back as their stars leave. They need perfection drafts and signings to win before free agency takes their talent away.
I think this shows the teams that just haven’t figured out how to draft and build on the fly. So many teams from 2016 have been able to retool and draft well enough to have youth come in and help the team without having to tear it all apart. I think retool is the new way to go.
I'd like to see a promotion/demotion system like they have in the European soccer leagues (and Japanese Sumo, btw). Bad teams drop away and good strong teams come up. I think it would add to the interest and drama - even for the bad teams.
It can be, but no playoffs and no chance of competing ultimately makes most fans not want to watch anymore. You spend 13 years out of the playoffs like Buffalo and it's almost surprising they still have a NHL team.
Heard an interesting proposal where they increase the age for draft eligible players to 21 with like 5ish exceptional status players that are 18-21 y/o. Makes it so 1st rd picks are more sure fire to hit to at least be solid NHL talent. The proposal I heard also included lowering the UFA age to ~26 so more teams can acquire talent easier without being handicapped by horrible FA signings
Chicago and San Jose are going to go through the rebuild faster, because they’re the only teams in this list that have a legit superstar franchise player. Maybe we could include the Flyers here as well.
I think this rebuild era was just short sighted thinking from owners/GMs. It’s easier to sell the future than a team who gets bounced first round every season. The problem is eventually the future comes and the excitement for young players deteriorates without actual progress
The panthers were rebuilding for 30 years until bill zito showed up. He remade the entire roster (only players remaining are Barkov, Ekblad and Bobrovsky), and they won a president's trophy, two conference championships and 1 stanley cup.
The common thread for most of these teams is that they believe youth talent alone will get them over the hump. Ottawa, Buffalo, Anaheim, Arizona/Utah, Montreal… all young guys. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the Devils got out of this category once they brought in veterans like Hamilton and Palat. You need the experience those guys bring. Credit to Chicago and San Jose for understanding that.
League could subsidize free agents for non-playoff teams? Would ease pressure on the draft, bolster teams that are just mid (and probably make those 14th-20th standings more competitive and interesting). Teams can pick up free agents maybe with a contract limit, like 4 years? And the league will pay that player whatever additional % not against the salary cap. The % could be dependant on last year's standings similar to the lowest team getting highest draft.
From a Sabres fan. So many things over the years but big ones I see is the tax laws so different from team to team. Players outright refusing to come here. Inept management, and a consistently competitive division. I don’t know what has to break other than Boston Floridas just fall apart. There has to be some kind of balance on taxes and NTC. Like the other comments are saying the bottom teams, no matter of shiny 1st and 2nd overall Picks can’t climb out
I disagree on taxes. Looking from the Sabres, hey the Bills have the same taxes. They're able to compete year in and year out. And it's not like teams from no income tax states are dominating... The Coyotes moved, the Dolphins haven't won a playoff game since 2000, the Mariners have one playoff appearance since 2001.
While I think taxes are some factor, I don't think it's a top 2 reason. There's plenty of examples of high tax teams competing regularly, not full rebuilds. NYR LAK WIN TOR. I think there's some truth for some players, but it's way further down.
@@UserName-ts3sp the nfl churns money, that being said poor management really can hinder a team. Baseball is a whole other animal. A core 6 teams throw tons of money around. If the mariners paid like LA or the Yankees yearly would they have made the playoffs? And back to the Dolphins, they have MADE the playoffs
Leafs are on year 57 of their rebuild. The problem is a player is bound to one team for the early half of a career and then they sign 8 year deals so players movement is limited. Very few drafts have 16 players that can become top tier players. The Oilers had five first round picks since the 2006 have the two best players in the league and still are in trouble. I think a player should get ufa status at 23 years old. The maximum contract length should be 4 years. The players cannot be resigned until after July 2nd so they can recieve offers from other teams. That would encourage player movement.
It's tempting to say that the Winnipeg Jets are Stanley Cup contenders because they've had an unbelievably good regular season. The Leafs and Bruins had respective good regular seasons four and two seasons ago but both of those teams would go onto lose their opening-round playoff series. Yet how many Canadian NHL teams have from the 2019-20 season had playoff success in consecutive seasons? Only the Habs (1st 2 such seasons) and Oilers (last three seasons) qualify, with both of those teams having become Stanley Cup finalists in their most recent seasons during which they had qualified for playoff action.
No movement clauses. A team can have a ton of assets to trade and not be able to because a player doesn’t want to go. It makes change in this league glacial.
As a Vegas fan, I really like management's "win now" approach. It may eventually catch up with them, but sure provides fun and exciting hockey in the meantime, and, of course, a cup in '23.
And when it does catch up to them...oh darn we'll draft Top Three for several years and won't lose who we draft except to trade for McDavid etc. and we'll rise up a lot faster than teams out there consistently drafting high yet keep sucking badly.
There should be repercussion for finishing last. There's no way for the NHL to have relegation but there should be some motivation to get players to push to not be last. Maybe fewer home games in the upcoming season, worst draft picks or something like that.
“I will not exploit my opponents youth and inexperience in this election.” You NEED the veterans to teach! They’re not there to score goals. They are there to be a leader, explain the game, etc. that is SO valuable for younger players
Top picks should work their way down from best team to miss the playoffs to last place (still get 16th best pick), then from worst to make the playoffs up to cup winner
I wonder if the salary cap does impact the continued evolution of teams, you can no longer ditch troublesome contracts of players with diminishing skills, the expansion from 24 to 30+ teams will also dilute talent available which means teams must build more strategically which would naturally be a longer process. For example the expansion Anaheim Ducks had shed all but about 3 of there original lineup by the year they made there first playoffs in year 4. 🤔
The draft lottery is the worst thing to happen to this sport. Seriously, the NFL operates just fine without it. There are other ways to punish or prevent tanking.
I would love to see the Draft Lottery reversed. 16 teams make the playoffs, Team #17 in the standings gets the BEST odds to win the draft lottery. It gives every team incentive to build a competitive team. Even if they aren't cup contenders, they're still trying to bring in talent and not just ship it out. You'd also see way more exciting Free Agency and way more exciting Trade Deadlines and more Hockey Trades because everyone wants to compete and it would drive desire and prices for trades higher. But your picks are also valued more so you have to balance being competitive and chasing that deadline acquisition.
Only issue with that is some teams who are #16 and know they will not advance past round 1 would rather be the first team to miss the playoffs, and then instead of tanking, you get teams intentionally not winning their last couple of games to avoid a matchup with the President's Trophy winner and instead get to draft that year's Connor McDavid.
Difficult with a salary cap. If there was no cap, a team could spend itself up from the bottom to mediocre pretty easily. With a salary cap and existing structure of penalized buyouts, and free agents having free will to decide where to go (and where not to go), this effectively put the bottom teams at the bottom forever.
How about a mini tournament featuring the playoff absentees where the winner gets the pick. Like the play in round during the covid cup year. No tanking and competitive games until the end result?
My favorite draft order decider is most points after being eliminated from playoff contention. Teams which are terrible are eliminated early offering more of a chance to collect points but are worse by comparison vs teams which are great and eliminated late and are better at collecting the few remaining points. This would mean that every game is competitive till the very end of the season
I think the issue with an NHL rebuild is that you need, like, 3 good hits. Pit had Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Fleury. Chicago had Kane, Toews, Keith, etc. LA had Doughty, Kopitar, and Quick. How many 1st overall picks did Edmonton need? How many good picks did Toronto need? You NEED to have A LOT of good players for your team to be competitive.
I haven’t watched it yet, but 1. the most talented players are drafted at age 18 and don’t reach their prime for several years. 2. If a team rebuilds and then misses on a few top picks it’ll now be -10 years from the start of the rebuild until the most recent picks are in their prime.
Edmonton is supposed to have the best player in the league, but it feels like contant rebuilds to find the winning line combinations. Fighting with the monetary angle on top of that...
Every team thinks they are just a few seasons from winning the cup. The reality is that in a league with 32 teams, some teams are going to be perpetually mediocre. The issue stems from fan expectations. Look at the Leafs. People complain when they consistently make the playoffs and do OK in them but that's not enough. They want to gut the team to win the cup but that's how you end up with awful teams for decades.
Buffalo would have been out of their rebuild along time ago if they didn’t fire Murray. Go look at the 2016 roster, they had close to .500 record and dealing with injury. He was fired and Botteril was brought in to tear down everything he did.
I believe Buffalo is also a bottom 5 team for free agent spending over the past few years. High end youth is all well and good, but veterans bring culture to a locker room. It isn’t a coincidence that the Devils turned it around once they added Dougie Hamilton and Ondrej Palat to a seasoned core of Jack Hughes, Hischier, and Bratt.
@@deltagolavista1 Edmonton had to get 4 #1 picks and they'd still be on this board if they hadn't lucked out in getting McDavid. Luck in the draft lotto may be the top factor in turning a team around. Where would have Chicago gone if they hadn't jumped up to the #1 pick in the Patrick Kane draft?
People will also take less to go to Florida or Tampa or Dallas or vgk because there is no state tax. Compared to new York, California etc you can save more than 10% which for a superstar can be a million a year
I think now would be a good time to get back into MLB if you're looking for more variety, with the playoffs being expanded we'll probably see more unlikely champions over the next 20-30 years
The NHL seems to have a higher learning curve than other major sports. It's extremely difficult for prospects to make the jump from NCAA/CHL to the NHL. Even if they do make it, it takes 3-4 years for them to really hit their stride.
I guess part of things is savvy management ..who is able to assess well enough the big contracts ..finding the quality veterans when they are not getting resigned elsewhere and bringing along your young guys. Florida and Canes have excelled in last few seasons with this. Avs Devils ..there are teams who get what a bigger picture is in scheme of things. . How that advances your roster quality.
I'd really like to see the NHL adopt the Gold Plan. There's a strong incentive to be as bad as possible with the current drafting system, which makes the climb back out really tough. I think you see fewer miserable seasons of hockey in a row if teams have to continue to field an NHL team to get the top pick.
Worth noting that 4 of those 10 teams are in the Atlantic division. The other 4 teams in that division being almost playoff locks for the last several years has to play a factor
Were those teams playoff locks because they were good, or were they playoff locks because these teams are horrible?
@deltagolavista1 Well in the last 5 years the Atlantic has had 3 cup winners and 3 president trophy winners. I think it's safe to say they're good
@@Jordan-sj7vk and made it to the finals in the 2 years they didn’t win.
@@deltagolavista1considering a team from the Atlantic has been in the finals every year since 2019 I’d say those teams are pretty good
@@b-ricemarsh5210 Still irks me that Columbus pushed Boston to 6 that year, it would've been crazy to see St Louis vs Columbus in the final that year.. even if Blues still win that imo.
My Sens have been rebuilding since the dawn of effing time. It’s soul destroying.
2007 cup finals. 2017 conference finals. You guys have had good teams
@ That one in 17 was half decent. And we had a couple of great ones in 2000’s.
But it’s now been seven years of the same old shit. We can’t even beat Buffalo and the sodding Habs. Tough times mate.
Yeah, we HAVE had good teams, no hardware except an eastern conference champs, but recent events (notably the last 2-3 years) have been so frustrating just not being able to make that last consistent step
Last year was the statement to make and everything went down the shitter. I've only been to 1 game in 5 years and that was from a giveaway that I entered for free.
@ So true mate. I actually didn’t mind the first few years of the rebuild. Playing spoiler, watching the lads develop but the last two years and 13 games have been utter dogshit.
My point exactly, a league where a third or more of all teams is in a perpetual state of rebuild is boring. Every year it's the same teams competing. The same teams suck. And the second they get a bit better ticket prizes surge.
Thanks for putting out this majestic video, Shannon.
As a Minnesota fan, we've been stuck in limbo since the inception of the Wild franchise. Not bad enough for a rebuild, but not good enough to win in the playoffs lol.
Mediocrity has been the name of the game since the North Stars days. That’s Minnesota sports for you.
@@tehbeernerd Minnesota men's sports*. PWHL Minnesota (now the Minnesota Frost) just won the Walter Cup last year.
Rebuilds suck but being in a constant retool hovering the playoffs for years has got to suck.
Good old reliable Minnesota Mild
I'm a Habs fan. I always keep an eye on the Wild. Guerin iron the right track. Chasing Suter and his buddy out of town had to be done. This years start is nice to watch. Good luck
The NHL wants to add teams to the league. They've decided to promote and push those teams. The draft has been changed to help or hurt teams. The never ending rebuilds are here to stay.
That and the expansion draft that Vegas got was pure larceny. A sign of the times I suppose. It's inevitable the league will end up at 36 teams though at some point, 18 a side.
As a Wings fan, this never ending rebuild is our penance for being arguably the best team in the league for a quarter of a Century. The Hockey Gods giveth and they taketh.
👏
unless youre buffalo or columbus, then they only taketh... and give it to teams like vegas.
largly due to no cap era.
Super real...you look at teams like this and think, "you're in that window. Better get some metal out of it." Detroit did, Chicago did, Tampa did. RIP teams who got nothing out of that window (Nashville, San Jose, Ottawa, Philly, Columbus?) and it's closing or already closed...
@@personM4N as a lifelong sharks fan, yeah..
One thing that will extend a rebuild is failing to start. Look at Chicago. Swept in the first round in 2017, 7th in the Central in 17-18, 6th in 18-19. Waited 3 more years to start rebuild.
yep
As Hawks fan living in pittsburgh I'm going through a lot of deja vu watching the local team here
@BHox01 There is almost no difference between the CURRENT average age of Crosby/Malkin/Letang vs Kane/Toews/Keith. Kane and Toews are the youngest of the 6. Pittsburgh needs one ofvthe big 3 to agree to go to get the ball rolling. If Sid goes at all, he won't be first.
@@kurtwpgMan, if they could get something for all 3 that would be some solid packages. Especially Sid.
They obviously knew about Bedard and waited juuust long enough to suck bad enough to tilt those ping pong balls enough to land him over two other teams worse than themselves but those two didn't have the TV market to influence the outcome.
Celebrini might've gone 1st (finally for the Sharks) but he's certainly no generational talent. Funny how that works.
For those of us who remember only 5 teams missing the playoffs, do rebuilds seem longer now that 16 miss? For example, the 1980s Maple Leafs, owned and mismanaged by Harold Ballard, made the playoffs in seasons with 57 and 52 points.
Didn't think about that. That's a good point. Those Leafs teams were horrendous too.
The Maple Loafs of the ‘80’s!
And I believe in one of those seasons, they made the 2nd round! Absolutely wild
Nobody really did rebuilds in the 21 team league. They’d keep the same core together for years and try to add to it. How many bad seasons did the North Stars keep coming back with Bellows, Cicerelli, Beaupre? Eventually they squeaked into the playoffs and rode some hot goaltending to a final. With a team that didn’t really change much.
@@goaliecoachmikeThey were also known as the Maple Laffs.
League is really competitive and if you don't have a superstar you willl have a lot of trouble making that last crucial step and making the playoffs.
Getting a “superstar” isn’t really a problem. Any team can be horrible for a few years and draft an NHL ready, top end talent. When you gut the team and don’t have the second and third rounders who will play with your “superstar” already cooking in the AHL, you will just burn your new superstars best years away.
If you're talking about the Stanley Cup that's a valid excuse, but half the league makes the playoffs every season. You just have to be mediocre to get in; you need to be pathetic to miss it more than 5 years in a row. 13 should NEVER happen.
I disagree. You need a superstar(s), but its ultimately a team game. Who can step up when it matters most/injuries occur. You need input from all 4 lines, all 3 pairs, Your goalie needs to be bulletproof, and when he gets injured the backup needs to reach down deep and do what needs to be done. Oilers and Leafs are a great examples. Mcdavid and Draisaitl can't put the team on their back. Matthews/Marner/Nylander can't put the team on their back. I think it ultimately comes down to your top line producing at a good rate, secondary scoring from your other lines, timely saves from your goalies, and who can step up and fill holes when guys get banged up. They don't say it's the hardest championship in sports for nothing.
As a Stars fan I'm so thankful that Nill and his scouts have done such a stellar job. Without brilliant drafting we'd be a basement dweller right now
Big fan of Nill’s efforts with Stars! A relief to see management done so well. ✅✅✅
@byst33 Benn and Seguin contracts are awful. Apparently you can overcome that with God Mode drafting
@ Right! Haven’t checked on this but were those contracts before Nill’s Gm time…
The drafting helps once you have a stable system and team. Eventually it will happen but it prolongs the need to. I do think the increased Cap Space moving forward helps as well
Seriously. That might be the best rebuild on the fly effort I've seen in decades.
Personally, I believe that a rebuild is partially connected to whether or not you hit on some of your draft picks or not. Especially if you're stocking up on draft picks as the sole method of strengthening your roster. I think that there's a happy medium between solely relying on young players and acquiring some veteran players to bring in that can help to teach your draft pick players.
I guess that there's no guaranteed way to rebuild quickly? If there was, every team would be doing it.
Part of it is just plain mismanagement
One of my favorite videos you've ever done, shannon. I really wish the "rebuild" cycle had some more shakeup to it, and of course every team does it differently, but it's no wonder teams resist doing a full rebuild as much as possible.
Watched my devils fumble a rebuild 10 years ago
Getting Nico and Jack Hughes, with a steal in the later draft in Bratt helped.. they figured it out
@@jessiegandhi4340 I’d argue that just as important, if not more so, was signing vets like Hamilton and Palat. You can draft and develop like Ottawa and Buffalo until the cows come home, but you still need that veteran presence.
@ I agree with that.
The NFL is the only North American league that sees "rebuilds" conducted very quickly. The NBA is probably 2nd, although superstars move around so much that it's not a good example.
But when you make a pick in the 1st round of the NFL draft, you're drafting a player who you expect to START as a rookie. 2nd - 4th rounders are expected to make your final roster and contribute off the bench. 5th, 6th and 7th rounders are often special teamers or practice squad guys who work their way up in year 2. If the NHL changed the draft age from 17/18 to 19/20, you'd have players stepping into the league ready to make an immediate impact. A team could sell off veterans at the deadline, make 3 picks in the first round of the draft, and be a fringe playoff team again in 2 seasons or less.
Now, the downside is thrice every decade when you get a McDavid, Matthews, Bedard etc who can dominate the league at 18 or 19, you miss out on them coming into the league early. But for the vast majority of players and teams, an older draft age would result in more competitive teams. The new NCAA rules on CHL players could make this concept a reality in my opinion.
Most positions in football lend themselves to having short careers so maintaining an extended period of dominance is very difficult. Basketball teams are so small that you can’t turn the whole team over quickly. Baseball is really the best comparison to Hockey. Very few draft age players are ready for prime time, and your team has a whole lot of moving parts.
@@Nightshiftzombie If you look at the numbers all four of the major sports the average career is short also the numbers do not tell the whole story if you become a starter in the NFL you have a much longer career the Chiefs have been good for a long time.
maybe do something like you can draft 17/18 year olds, but only in the 1st round. then rounds 2-7 only have guys that are 19/20+
As a Wings fan, I’m hurting
Best example of this is Washington vs. Pittsburgh. Couple years ago, both were seen as teams on the decline with aging rosters in a similar boat. Pittsburgh doubled down on aging players to get back to elite level, while Washington sold at the deadline without going the rebuild route. Looking at today, Washington's re-tool was extremely successful whereas Pittsburgh seems destined for a re-build. Moral of the story: you don't have to tear it down to the base 's re-tool was extremely successful whereas Pittsburgh seems destined for a re-build with years of franchise-damaging bottom-feeding.
Washington seems to have excellent scouts and excellent development staff, getting the most of guys these rebuilding teams wouldn't. No offense to guys like McMichael and Protas, but I bet they wouldn't look nearly as good in most of these rebuilding teams.
Good topic. When you're talking about youngest team/oldest team, I think the top 6 forwards and top 4 D should be weighted heavier.
@@kurtwpg I agree, when we think of teams being young or old we're really thinking about the top players.
Some teams, Buffalo in particular, have been rebuilding this long because of some degree of bad luck and outright bad management; they had one rebuild (the Eichel era team) that outright failed and so transitioned into basically a second rebuild without ever being genuinely good in between. A lot of the others on this chart are just in one rebuild.
The way rebuilds tend to work now is a consequence of the totality of how the NHL is set up, including:
1) the hard salary cap (you can't just add as many pieces as you want at a given moment);
2) guaranteed contracts (can't just cut underperforming players);
3) the draft/ELC/RFA/UFA structure (great players generally don't have any chance of reaching free agency until the majority of their prime years have already been played); and
4) NTCs and NMCs in contracts that functionally limit the ability of many teams to trade for great players based on location, tax incentives, or whatever else.
The thing is, the cumulative impact of most of these rules are to make the league more competitive than it otherwise would be, it just takes a while for teams to cycle through a rebuild. But if you manage well and have a little draft luck, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
The leagues that show what the opposite of most of this looks like are European soccer leagues, pretty much all of which are monopolized by a handful of big-spending destination teams that are never seriously challenged. The English Premier League has a rotating cast of twenty clubs, but in the past twenty seasons they have had a grand total of _five_ champions: Manchester City (8), Manchester United (5), Chelsea (5), Liverpool (1), and Leicester City (1). Probably 16-17 of the 20 clubs enter a given season knowing they have no realistic chance of winning the title.
And this is in a league where disparities in location, etc. are much less than they would be in the NHL if it operated like that. There's no ideal system. We don't want an NHL dominated by a handful of super-clubs. We don't want small market teams to have no prayer of ever winning anything. We also don't want players to have basically no labour rights.
Eichel Rebuild failed due to a number of reasons, mostly pointing to Tim Murray's tenure as a GM and the fact that they completely destroyed their prospect pipeline and only recently in 2020-2021 had made legitimate efforts to rebuild their AHL and ECHL team.
The prospect pipeline may seem insignificant, but you need those players to give your top guys a less stress filled way to build their game. Players like Alexander Nylander is one such example of this, but also Casey Mittelstadt being another and Jack Quinn as another. These are also filled with players who will fill in top slots when your Dahlin's, Reinhart's or Eichel's are injured.
Mix in with no real Hockey coach until 2021-2022 and then having a real NHL coach in 2024-2025 and you start seeing why the Sabres have had trouble making the playoffs in the past 13 years.
Yeah, bad luck has been apart of it, but the biggest issue was their depth scoring and players.
great point about NTCs and NMCs in contracts, that means people don't want to go to Buffalo, Ottawa, etc, and 5 or so others and can basically back door blackball those teams. I don't have as much a problem with ELC/RFA/UFA structure because that mostly helps weaker teams. If you're in a destination city like NYC teams, it's easy to keep players, but much harder in the rustbelt.
@@pmnichol I don’t have a problem with NTC/NMCs - players should be allowed to trade down in salary in exchange for a bit more control over their career, especially when they’re at the stage in life where they have families - but it’s just objectively a fact that some player labour rights come directly at the expense of maximizing league competitiveness.
I don’t think teams should be allowed to just tear up contracts and cut players either, but if all you were concerned about was speeding up rebuilds that would be an obvious thing to change.
It makes the Kings accelerated rebuild even more impressive - and more tragic, considering the 21-22 7 game Oilers loss caused premature acceleration that's doomed it just as quickly.
Would we consider the kings a retool vs a rebuild? Since they still kept Doughty and Kopitar? Think the definition of a rebuild is a bit of a moving target sometimes
@justinpalumbo2447 Yeah, it's really hard to tell. I feel like if you bottom out enough to get more than one lottery pick in a row, it's intensive enough a retool to count as a rebuild. What some teams do is so extreme it constitutes terraforming lol
The Kings are not a playoff team in the eastern conference. Put the Sens, Red Wings or Sabres in the pacific and they would all make the playoffs
@@RytheCodplayer Agreed. With positions swapped, Sabres would have had the Kraken's 22-23 and then fallen back, Sens would be last year's Preds, and Wings would be the ones with the first round exit three years running.
I’m an oilers fan, I remember our seemingly endless rebuild. It was inept management that caused that for us and it’s inept management that causes this phenomenon in the NHL. Teams consistently hire their alumni/ members of the “old boys club” (more than in other leagues IMO) and this causes the never ending rebuild phenomenon.
The Blackhawks' issue was their previous GM, who perpetually mortgaged the teams' future in pursuit of one more Cup. Had they not been forced to fire Bowman, they would probably still be hopelessly "retooling" every damn year. Upon the GM change, they had one of the league's worst prospect pools, and no draft picks to speak of, The only way to get those is to sell off your veterans. Kyle Davidson had little choice but to tear it all down to the studs, and rebuild through the draft. It's slow-going, as expected, but at least they're making progress, and have a bright future with one of the league's top prospect pools. Most of the vets are just place-holders while those kids develop. I don't think their rebuild will last as long as some of the other teams on the list.
As a jets fan I can absolutely say it is possible to do you best to put a competitive team on the ice every year. Players love leaving out franchise but chevy is an amazing general manager who finds a way to keep getting out of it when things look down in the dumps
I like the slow ebbs and flows, the fact teams windows can be open for a while, the fact some teams take their licks for years while others are like mini dynasty’s. I love the dominance of certain teams over others for the better part of decades. It makes for even greater plot lines down the road
You kinda have to luck out on a couple draft picks, you have to have at least 1 be a transformational superstar. New Jersey came out of their rebuild simply because Hischier and Hughes hit that level at the same time, Colorado made the playoffs consistently the moment Mackinnon took the jump to top 5 player
That helped the Devils but so did signing guys like Hamilton and Palat. You can’t thrive exclusively on young guys.
@RIPJimmyA7X Colorado ended up shipping some very prominent misses. But overall, they have hit pay dirt.
@francoisbouvier7861 They've also hit well on players who didn't live up to expectations on other teams. Most notably, Valeri Nichushkin.
It's all about having those magic beans (picks) turn into something, while also having young players taking a step, while also making smart trades/signings, while also needing the other teams in your division to not all be monsters (Atlantic division). Failure on one or multiple of those points could mean the team is stuck in limbo, couple years of that and it's time to start again...
Fun stat I crunched recently: the last team to finish last in the NHL standings (completely bottomed out) that later made the playoffs? 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche. Every other bottomed-out team since has not been back. This is the longest span of "bottoming out doesn't work" among the big four american pro sports leagues.
Giving Columbus a 0.2% chance to make the playoffs while the Flyers get a 8.8% chance really makes me look at moneypuck stats with a lot of doubt now.
Not really we suck ass
I think it is a question of scouting and development. Some teams don't invest and it shows. Teams like Dallas and Minnesota have consistently found gems in sub-optimal draft spots for the last decade. Some teams just have tunnel-vision at the draft. They like a guy and are willing to pick him 20 spots ahead of where most teams have him even if value over replacement is low or other players might have more value.
I like Buffalo's drafting though. They just need a grade A leader and coach imo.
@@nottheguy4328 They need better owners, lets be real.
Retool 😊
Rebuild 🌚
If one routinely trades away draft picks and prospects in an attempt to make the spring dance one more time, one will end up in its own special circle of hell. At least, that's what happened with my boys in Detroit. Decent prospects and picks traded away for another first round exit. I'd rather they start the rebuild than prolong the inevitable. If one does it early enough, it could be done on-the-fly.
Starting to think this is a demolition year and not a rebuild year for Nashville.
This video makes me sad. Signed a die hard Red Wings Fan. 😅
Excited for San Jose and the future, prospect pool looks nice.
Always wondered why it seems like this happens more in the NHL than other leagues
It's really visible in the NFL as well. Baseball not so much.
I kind of rather see this then having players self assemble super teams then anchor and set them back even more.
Predators may be a small example of this...
Because other leagues are not drafting 18-year olds. NFL and NBA are drafting out of college and are immediately going to the big league. With the NHL most of the guys drafted are not seeing the NHL for at least a year or two, unless you are one of the top picks.
Besides the NFL, MLB and NBA are also super long rebuilds for a lot of teams. Baseball had the orioles tigers and royals who were all bad for a long time and you still have teams like the marlins, rockies, and Angels. NBA has the Pistons, Spurs and Hornets. I would argue that the NHL has the 2nd fastest rebuild of the big 4 sports. Hard cape league makes getting draft picks/young assets far easier as you can weaponize cap space. And Superstar players are not as important as in basketball.
Thanks for the video! I've often said regarding hockey and baseball, as well as football and basketball, fans should not allow a team to claim they are rebuilding for more than two years, then they need to roster up a team that can compete for a playoff spot, at the least. I've been lucky with the Blackhawks this century but even this current drought has me wondering why the team wasn't built to compete more readily this year, though some might say the eight or so vets they brought on board were meant to do just that. Some have panned out, most seem to be around to keep folks from taking cheap shots at Bedard. Only one team on your board has been out of the playoffs for more than a decade but any that are out half a decade or longer (half you board), aren't making the moves they need to make, and while half your board is already there, all but one on your board will be at the half decade mark as another year passes!
Hmmm . . . I wonder if a team could be made from current and former Blackhawks still playing and how good they might be, if you could afford them 😛
Artemi Panarin (LW), Dylan Strome (C), Teuvo Teravainen (RW)
Alex DeBrincat (LW/RW), Connor Bedard (C), Patrick Kane (RW)
Lukas Reichel (LW), Max Domi (C/W), Dominik Kubalík (LW/RW)
Brandon Hagel (LW), Ryan Donato (C), Nick Schmaltz (C/RW)
Gustav Forsling (D), Trevor van Riemsdyk (D)
Jordan Oesterle (D), Jake McCabe (D)
Seth Jones (D), Alex Vlasic (D)
Calvin de Haan (D), Connor Murphy (D)
Kevin Lankinen (G)
Marc-Andre Fleury (G)
Petr Mrázek (G)
If the salary cap wasn't a thing Detroit would never have missed the playoffs. Hell we'd probably have more Stanley Cups
Detroit's age is skewed by Kane, Petry, Tarasenko, Charot and Talbot.... Oh wait, that's a fifth of our team. :) Hopefully, our youngsters in GR come up next year and push these old guys out.
being buffalo fan must be exhausting
Great topic!!!🏒🥅💥
Salary cap. I will never have a team like 02 Wings again.
Ducks fan here. Eakins was for draft picks. Fired GMBM, restart with Verbeek, verbeek cleaned house brought in Cronin now looking like Cronin is a waste of time and talent. It’s frustrating for sure
Well summarized! ✅
Hopeful they will move on from Cronin..one school of GM’s will readily fire a coach when he is not delivering..the other school stays the course insisting on forcing a lost lockerroom to get it going..
You left out the part where Verbeek is also a waste of time and talent too.
@ on the menu ! He’s been a mess..
@@jibathus agreed
It will be interesting to see how Utah fans react to this rebuild. The jazz have been the only show in town other than college sports and they have supported them through their rebuilds while keeping the arena full. Both the jazz and the yeti(😉) are in rebuilds right now as a matter of fact.
I think it’s partly about teams rebuilding and partly about the teams at the top.
For every Ottawa senators and Buffalo Sabres that are constantly rebuilding, there’s a Boston bruins and Tampa bay Lightning that are almost always good and almost always contenders that these teams have to at least be in range of in the standings.
One of those teams on the board has a recent Western Conference championship don't forget ;)
One of those teams has won more Cups than any other team in the last 15 years
Hasn't been fun being a devils fan since 2012. Was a slow long rebuild but it's pretty much over at this point thankfully
Always remember that in order for a new team to make the playoffs, a team has to drop out. In the East, it's mostly been the same teams. Tampa, TOR, Florida, Boston, Carolina, Islanders, Rangers have consistently been in the playoffs for the last few years. This year might be different, with the Islanders, Bruins, and Lightning potentially on the wrong side of the bubble, so maybe the Sabres can finally sneak it in there.
ooooooh I love the blue jackets magnet, it looks really sharp
For most of those teams it’s because Toronto Boston and tampa have ran that division for damn near a decade and Florida has been amazing for the last half decade
As a Ducks fan i think a lot of people forget our GM was an alcoholic with a power trip issue and our owners had to fire him over an anonymous tip, so i feel like he screwed us over. our retool ended up becoming a whole rebuild thats taken so long to get out of
I think it is definitely worth not completely selling off all players in a rebuild, which is what the Flyers have done, but there is still ultimately some luck involved in how the rebuild goes.
If the Caps season keeps on same pace the retool they did this summer may be the new standard to strive for instead of full rebuild
Detroit has been in rebuild mode ever since they took “ HockeyTown “ out of the center ice logo
Looking back at the Original 6, even the bad teams had stars, they were trying to win, they just lacked the talent or luck to get as good as the good teams in the league. But Boston took 6 years to get back into being a true competitor, the Rangers at the same time were a constant spoiler battling with Detroit often for the 4th and final playoff spot, Detroit often won because Gordie Howe was one of the best ever. The thing was, if you go back and watch games from the Rangers and Bruins playing the other clubs, they are always fun to watch, because the management tried to win and ice a competitive but young team.
I think that Philosophy needs to make a comeback. If you have a team that lacks Franchise elite talent, but is working toward that, it would make watching a bottom feeder a little more entertaining. I think maybe abolishing the draft and returning to sponsored Junior systems, that puts the onus on the teams' scouting and coaching to build up the youth core over time, this way they aren't going for infinite draft picks like the 76ers in the NBA.
I think the number of rebuilding teams is also reflective of COVID and the flat cap. Teams actually couldn't rebuild because to do that, you have to dump a lot of cap to almost guarantee yourself a high draft pick. Very few teams had the cap space to take those contracts on. In the old days, you'd just trade a guy in his early 30s on a big contract to boost a contender. If you're a contender, you're right up against the cap and if you're looking to add, typically there's some salary retention going on or you're just bringing in a secondary or tertiary piece. It's hard to do a rebuild at the best of times, let alone when the cap isn't going up or only going up by a couple of million.
You mentioned baseball. Im a Rockies fan. We have some die hards like myself but each year we get told it’ll be different and then nothing happens but another 100 loss season it hurts. It’s getting hard to support. Thank god I have the avs. But I feel the teams that are stuck in that rebuild.
The key to good rebuild is to be drafting well and not trading pick and prospects when you start declining. Any year, you can bottom out and find top end forwards in the draft but you are going to need those second and third round picks (particularly defencemen) to “cook” for a while, before you add that cherry or two on the top. If you bottom out too early you end up too top heavy. (Edmonton, Toronto) and you waste the cheap years of your high end draft picks.
I don't think any team looks at it as being a 5+ year program to rebuild. But when draft picks don't pan out or trades don't work things can hit the ditch pretty fast. And the opposite happens. Look at the Canucks - couple good draft picks work out, a good GM, good coach and a couple good trades and the team turned it around in basically a year after years of foundering.
Thank you for discussing this Shannon! Ducks fan here, thought I was going crazy.
Our ownership is doing everything they can to elevate the fan experience this year (new pregame show, developing the real estate around the Pond, new jerseys, etc.) EXCEPT putting a decent team on the ice.
They even signed a deal with Victory+ to allow fans to stream games for free ffs, and I've barely even watched because the Ducks are hot garbage. It's very frustrating.
Something needs to change.
As a Sabres fan I've thought about this a lot. One thing that isn't talked about is that the good teams are staying good longer. Guys like Chara, Bergeron, Marchand, Crosby etc... all maintained a high level late into their 30's which rarely happened in the past. Teams aren't ageing out of the playoffs like they used to. At a time when social media has made us more impatient than ever, teams actually need to be more patient then they used to. Buffalo is stuck in a cycle of playing guys when they're 18 and when they don't become super stars by 24 they give up on them and trade them away for more 18 year olds.
I think some GMs would prefer to retool instead of rebuild, but if the veteran players want to leave, the team doesn't always have a choice. If you lose your best players in free agency or have to trade them to avoid losing them for nothing and you can't attract talent, then what option are you left with? You have to use your young drafted players because they don't have a choice but to play for you. And with hockey players especially, winning is more important than money to a lot of guys. (How many times have we seen guys take less to win or be competitive?) So, even if you make the highest offer, you will lose guys who don't think they can win there.
The difference with a team like the Rangers and the others on this list is that they don't need to build through the draft as much. Free Agents just flock to them and they can rebuild very quickly. Ottawa would have to pay Panarin 16 million to play there.
You could do a video about some successful “re-tools” or partial rebuilds to see what goes into avoiding a total scorched earth rebuild
The adding of new teams definitely hurt teams at the bottom of the standings. Not only are they taking a player from the rebuilding team, they're also taking one from other teams looking to take the top teams down a notch. Besides that, if the new team is good they are taking a playoff spot.
I think it is just really hard to find the sweetspot. If you are the Rangers with a couple of good players on the roster, have a Panarin willing to sign, all you need is a couple of seasons to restructure, get the young guns that are now driving the team and you're done. That's what I think the Flames should go through, maybe Nashville if they don't turn it around - and yes, with Weber and Price healthy that would've been the way for my Habs. Speaking of them and turning to Pittsburgh and San Jose - if you lose too many (hiw many is too many, San Jose only needed Pavelski to leave) top players in a short period of time or ifyour core is so old and expensive, that it makes a quick retool difficult, you are somewhat in need of a rebuild. But then there is Washington - so..... It's not easy to find the spot I'd say, but I agree, in a lot of cases it could be faster (thinking of LA too)
It was nice when the Ducks were a top ten team in the league for a decade and some more. I think the Getzlaf and Perry contracts were understandable, but made retooling difficult. The Bieksa and Kessler contracts were brutal in that regard.
The rebuild seems to be gaining traction. They haven't drafted great to be honest. Some guys haven't hit their potential, but a lot of their 1sts and 2nds didn't pan out between 2016 and 2020. That has delayed the turnaround the most in my opinion.
The eternal rebuild is hell, but there is a logic to it. Teams cannot compete on salary, but they can have guaranteed talent for several years thanks to when free agency starts. I'm not arguing how successful it will be versus trading and signing well, but a lot of the "Dynasty" teams had two or three key picks.
Glad you mentioned baseball. That is even worse where teams like Pittsburgh and Kansas City to name two, are like farm teams for the Yankees. They receive nothing back as their stars leave. They need perfection drafts and signings to win before free agency takes their talent away.
I think this shows the teams that just haven’t figured out how to draft and build on the fly. So many teams from 2016 have been able to retool and draft well enough to have youth come in and help the team without having to tear it all apart. I think retool is the new way to go.
I'd like to see a promotion/demotion system like they have in the European soccer leagues (and Japanese Sumo, btw). Bad teams drop away and good strong teams come up. I think it would add to the interest and drama - even for the bad teams.
rebuilds can be interesting for fans to an extent, as to how a team goes about rebuild and which players to bring in?
It can be, but no playoffs and no chance of competing ultimately makes most fans not want to watch anymore. You spend 13 years out of the playoffs like Buffalo and it's almost surprising they still have a NHL team.
Heard an interesting proposal where they increase the age for draft eligible players to 21 with like 5ish exceptional status players that are 18-21 y/o. Makes it so 1st rd picks are more sure fire to hit to at least be solid NHL talent. The proposal I heard also included lowering the UFA age to ~26 so more teams can acquire talent easier without being handicapped by horrible FA signings
Chicago and San Jose are going to go through the rebuild faster, because they’re the only teams in this list that have a legit superstar franchise player. Maybe we could include the Flyers here as well.
I think this rebuild era was just short sighted thinking from owners/GMs. It’s easier to sell the future than a team who gets bounced first round every season.
The problem is eventually the future comes and the excitement for young players deteriorates without actual progress
The panthers were rebuilding for 30 years until bill zito showed up. He remade the entire roster (only players remaining are Barkov, Ekblad and Bobrovsky), and they won a president's trophy, two conference championships and 1 stanley cup.
The common thread for most of these teams is that they believe youth talent alone will get them over the hump. Ottawa, Buffalo, Anaheim, Arizona/Utah, Montreal… all young guys. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the Devils got out of this category once they brought in veterans like Hamilton and Palat. You need the experience those guys bring.
Credit to Chicago and San Jose for understanding that.
League could subsidize free agents for non-playoff teams? Would ease pressure on the draft, bolster teams that are just mid (and probably make those 14th-20th standings more competitive and interesting). Teams can pick up free agents maybe with a contract limit, like 4 years? And the league will pay that player whatever additional % not against the salary cap. The % could be dependant on last year's standings similar to the lowest team getting highest draft.
From a Sabres fan. So many things over the years but big ones I see is the tax laws so different from team to team. Players outright refusing to come here. Inept management, and a consistently competitive division. I don’t know what has to break other than Boston Floridas just fall apart. There has to be some kind of balance on taxes and NTC. Like the other comments are saying the bottom teams, no matter of shiny 1st and 2nd overall Picks can’t climb out
I disagree on taxes. Looking from the Sabres, hey the Bills have the same taxes. They're able to compete year in and year out. And it's not like teams from no income tax states are dominating... The Coyotes moved, the Dolphins haven't won a playoff game since 2000, the Mariners have one playoff appearance since 2001.
While I think taxes are some factor, I don't think it's a top 2 reason. There's plenty of examples of high tax teams competing regularly, not full rebuilds. NYR LAK WIN TOR. I think there's some truth for some players, but it's way further down.
@ WPG is the outlier here, plenty of players also want the big city
@@UserName-ts3sp the nfl churns money, that being said poor management really can hinder a team. Baseball is a whole other animal. A core 6 teams throw tons of money around. If the mariners paid like LA or the Yankees yearly would they have made the playoffs? And back to the Dolphins, they have MADE the playoffs
Leafs are on year 57 of their rebuild.
The problem is a player is bound to one team for the early half of a career and then they sign 8 year deals so players movement is limited. Very few drafts have 16 players that can become top tier players. The Oilers had five first round picks since the 2006 have the two best players in the league and still are in trouble.
I think a player should get ufa status at 23 years old. The maximum contract length should be 4 years. The players cannot be resigned until after July 2nd so they can recieve offers from other teams. That would encourage player movement.
It's tempting to say that the Winnipeg Jets are Stanley Cup contenders because they've had an unbelievably good regular season. The Leafs and Bruins had respective good regular seasons four and two seasons ago but both of those teams would go onto lose their opening-round playoff series.
Yet how many Canadian NHL teams have from the 2019-20 season had playoff success in consecutive seasons? Only the Habs (1st 2 such seasons) and Oilers (last three seasons) qualify, with both of those teams having become Stanley Cup finalists in their most recent seasons during which they had qualified for playoff action.
A rebuild research will be fascinating.
No movement clauses. A team can have a ton of assets to trade and not be able to because a player doesn’t want to go. It makes change in this league glacial.
As a Vegas fan, I really like
management's "win now" approach. It may eventually catch up with them, but sure provides fun and exciting hockey in the meantime, and, of course, a cup in '23.
And when it does catch up to them...oh darn we'll draft Top Three for several years and won't lose who we draft except to trade for McDavid etc. and we'll rise up a lot faster than teams out there consistently drafting high yet keep sucking badly.
There should be repercussion for finishing last. There's no way for the NHL to have relegation but there should be some motivation to get players to push to not be last. Maybe fewer home games in the upcoming season, worst draft picks or something like that.
Wing puck display: best hockey Internet moment ever
“I will not exploit my opponents youth and inexperience in this election.” You NEED the veterans to teach! They’re not there to score goals. They are there to be a leader, explain the game, etc. that is SO valuable for younger players
Good points! really interesting..... i feel like my Bruins are headed to a rebuild, and now i'm worried.
Top picks should work their way down from best team to miss the playoffs to last place (still get 16th best pick), then from worst to make the playoffs up to cup winner
I wonder if the salary cap does impact the continued evolution of teams, you can no longer ditch troublesome contracts of players with diminishing skills, the expansion from 24 to 30+ teams will also dilute talent available which means teams must build more strategically which would naturally be a longer process. For example the expansion Anaheim Ducks had shed all but about 3 of there original lineup by the year they made there first playoffs in year 4. 🤔
The draft lottery is the worst thing to happen to this sport. Seriously, the NFL operates just fine without it. There are other ways to punish or prevent tanking.
i'd love to play in san jose i think, seems like a great city, same with montreal
I would love to see the Draft Lottery reversed. 16 teams make the playoffs, Team #17 in the standings gets the BEST odds to win the draft lottery. It gives every team incentive to build a competitive team. Even if they aren't cup contenders, they're still trying to bring in talent and not just ship it out. You'd also see way more exciting Free Agency and way more exciting Trade Deadlines and more Hockey Trades because everyone wants to compete and it would drive desire and prices for trades higher. But your picks are also valued more so you have to balance being competitive and chasing that deadline acquisition.
Only issue with that is some teams who are #16 and know they will not advance past round 1 would rather be the first team to miss the playoffs, and then instead of tanking, you get teams intentionally not winning their last couple of games to avoid a matchup with the President's Trophy winner and instead get to draft that year's Connor McDavid.
Difficult with a salary cap. If there was no cap, a team could spend itself up from the bottom to mediocre pretty easily. With a salary cap and existing structure of penalized buyouts, and free agents having free will to decide where to go (and where not to go), this effectively put the bottom teams at the bottom forever.
How about a mini tournament featuring the playoff absentees where the winner gets the pick. Like the play in round during the covid cup year. No tanking and competitive games until the end result?
Yeahhh… don’t think the 2021-22 golden knights getting the 1OA pick one year and winning the cup the next year would go over very well
My favorite draft order decider is most points after being eliminated from playoff contention. Teams which are terrible are eliminated early offering more of a chance to collect points but are worse by comparison vs teams which are great and eliminated late and are better at collecting the few remaining points. This would mean that every game is competitive till the very end of the season
I think the issue with an NHL rebuild is that you need, like, 3 good hits. Pit had Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Fleury. Chicago had Kane, Toews, Keith, etc. LA had Doughty, Kopitar, and Quick. How many 1st overall picks did Edmonton need? How many good picks did Toronto need? You NEED to have A LOT of good players for your team to be competitive.
I haven’t watched it yet, but
1. the most talented players are drafted at age 18 and don’t reach their prime for several years.
2. If a team rebuilds and then misses on a few top picks it’ll now be -10 years from the start of the rebuild until the most recent picks are in their prime.
Edmonton is supposed to have the best player in the league, but it feels like contant rebuilds to find the winning line combinations.
Fighting with the monetary angle on top of that...
Every team thinks they are just a few seasons from winning the cup. The reality is that in a league with 32 teams, some teams are going to be perpetually mediocre.
The issue stems from fan expectations. Look at the Leafs. People complain when they consistently make the playoffs and do OK in them but that's not enough. They want to gut the team to win the cup but that's how you end up with awful teams for decades.
Ya the Leafs getting rid of the stars they got lucky and hit on would be moronic. Players like Matthews and Marner don't grow on trees
Buffalo would have been out of their rebuild along time ago if they didn’t fire Murray. Go look at the 2016 roster, they had close to .500 record and dealing with injury. He was fired and Botteril was brought in to tear down everything he did.
I believe Buffalo is also a bottom 5 team for free agent spending over the past few years. High end youth is all well and good, but veterans bring culture to a locker room. It isn’t a coincidence that the Devils turned it around once they added Dougie Hamilton and Ondrej Palat to a seasoned core of Jack Hughes, Hischier, and Bratt.
@ devils turned it around after getting 2 first overall picks.
@@deltagolavista1 Edmonton had to get 4 #1 picks and they'd still be on this board if they hadn't lucked out in getting McDavid. Luck in the draft lotto may be the top factor in turning a team around. Where would have Chicago gone if they hadn't jumped up to the #1 pick in the Patrick Kane draft?
@@RRaquello there is a reason why I started in 2013 😉
14:46 that’s like the relegation system in European leagues who keep the most successful teams on top until a new competent owner comes in.
People will also take less to go to Florida or Tampa or Dallas or vgk because there is no state tax. Compared to new York, California etc you can save more than 10% which for a superstar can be a million a year
I think now would be a good time to get back into MLB if you're looking for more variety, with the playoffs being expanded we'll probably see more unlikely champions over the next 20-30 years
The NHL seems to have a higher learning curve than other major sports. It's extremely difficult for prospects to make the jump from NCAA/CHL to the NHL. Even if they do make it, it takes 3-4 years for them to really hit their stride.
I guess part of things is savvy management ..who is able to assess well enough the big contracts ..finding the quality veterans when they are not getting resigned elsewhere and bringing along your young guys. Florida and Canes have excelled in last few seasons with this. Avs Devils ..there are teams who get what a bigger picture is in scheme of things. . How that advances your roster quality.
I'd really like to see the NHL adopt the Gold Plan. There's a strong incentive to be as bad as possible with the current drafting system, which makes the climb back out really tough. I think you see fewer miserable seasons of hockey in a row if teams have to continue to field an NHL team to get the top pick.