@stephanienelson7252 I'm glad you were able to relocate. It's not easy, not emotionally or financially or practically easy. And also may I say I am so mad there's just no bright spot in the projections for Tucson. The whole thing feels really unfair and unjust.
It's very hard to get people to surrender what they have spent their lives building, especially if the bulk of their net worth is invested in their house.
@LaughingLion and people are embedded in community, people might have their garden how they like... it's hard to make a big change. I hope I'm wrong about AZ, but it looks to me like the writing is on the wall about home value there in the long term.
@@AmericanResiliency You aren't wrong, but the people with the most capacity to be mobile would be young, late 20s early 30s who haven't got a gigantic investment in a house, business or career in a particular area. You are seeing people like this leaving ultra-expensive areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco. But then they move to Phoenix. Your video was great and should be eye-opening if people are willing to pay attention. I caught it due to a post on reddit (which is mostly a cesspool) on r/collapse. A lot of people from Arizona, when these facts are pointed out say "it's a dry heat in the midwest/Texas the wet bulb mortalities will be worse" or else "well AMOC is going to collapse to this place will be better than the East Coast" or else "yeah, but I hate winter". The bottom line is that they don't want to see the truth.
I don't understand why some people don't just say they are willing to die where they are. Like, just be cool with it. It's a respectable choice. Many people would rather die than move, like a tree. And many people if they were honest with themselves would rather die than change.
You are gifted at delivering tough diagnoses and prognoses while at the same time offering practical ways of responding. This is a rare skill generally, but definitely rare in the “doom-o-sphere” and other climate-aware and doom-adjacent corners of the internet!
@Corrie-fd9ww there's a lot we can learn from medicine in terms of delivering hard news. And, like in medicine and in boxing, final calls should only be made at the end of a solid count.
That’s a good point, actually- learning from healers and healing professions with how to communicate this stuff. But lol there’s way too much calling things early on the internet. Humans love certainty when things are uncertain!
I’ve been waiting for this and it was worth it! thank you! I’m sending this to my family down in Tucson - there is no way to sugar coat the outlook. I hope I can convince them the way you’ve convinced me. ✌🏼
@bubblegirl2768 wishing you and your family all the best. Let them know for me, there are plenty of reasons to stay that anyone should respect. But there's also a lot of other desert places with better outlooks. I think the news is easier to take, a little, if a person hears staying in a beautiful desert is on the table.
@rapauli I had a job where I was supposed to bend things around to keep people calm during the pandemic. I never want to do that again. I'm sure this plain talk will hurt, but I hope people can hear that I don't take any pleasure in it. And I never knew many desert people to be fond of bullsh*t, anyway.
@SebastopolTV I try to share the information as clearly as I can- sometimes it is sure hard to look at. I'm working up steam to do California- probably have to split it into North & South to get people a usable level of detail. Fingers crossed for you all.
When you get around to the behemoth of CA, please consider beaking it up into southern CA and Northern CA to give each area and all it's population centers a bit more depth. I have a hunch you have a ton of viewers on CA so it will be time well spent.
@Zack-dz5dj I am inclined to break CA that way for the videos this time around. The diversity of outcomes in the state is huge, but I think a north-south split makes the most sense with the water outlook. I don't have CA on the calendar yet but I think probably it'll be in June.
This is interesting to see from neighboring NM - good coverage. Being familiar with much of Arizona, the warming area you describe as Humphrey's Peak / Flagstaff is further east and a little south - Payson or the Tonto Basin and valley areas to the south, which currently transition into Sonoran Desert quickly at Gisela and continue around Roosevelt Lake. The other area you describe as concerning near Flagstaff is actually lower and 40-50 miles east, the Little Colorado Valley - Cameron just east of the Grand Canyon to Holbrook, which is similar to the central NM valley between Socorro and north of Albuquerque.
@desertdc123 if you have a better eye than me on this, I assure you I would be absolutely delighted. I would believe I could be off to those margins. These scripts get checked (this one had four readers) but these videos are state-level outlooks. Especially in areas with detailed topography, ground checks with local knowledge are important.
@@AmericanResiliency Glad to help with a closer look, at least where I'm familiar in the SW and southern plains. Some of the areas you're showing as safer or at least more insulated from extreme daytime and especially nighttime warming seem to revolve around higher elevation and nearness to large mountain masses. I have been studying climate zones since I switched from meteorology to landscape architecture in college in the mid-1980's. It's really interesting, especially figuring out which plants and design considerations truly work or don't. Denver and all the central and southern plains are so chaotic, where I spent high school and college. The more one is separated from the plains, the more stable the temperatures especially cool season - Alamogordo to Albuquerque have one mountain range to buffer artic fronts, while Las Cruces, T or C, and west have 2 or more mountain ranges. And so on. I lived in ABQ 21 years, moving to El Paso then Las Cruces the last 11 years. The south warms more in winter than it does in summer compared to the central (ABQ), but the nights are really warming here...ABQ growing season decreased 2 days 1981-2010 to 1991-2020, but Las Cruces growing season increased 10 days. Slight but I can see it...and..... ABQ 4900-6200 ft elevation, lat 35N - Las Cruces 3800-4500 ft elevation, lat 32N.
@@desertdc123 if you wouldn't mind emailing me I'd appreciate it- ar@americanresiliency.org. Would love to get your thoughts on draft scripts as I work through the southern plains. The kinds of differences and details you notice are important.
@loshuskiespack9456, I'm glad you bring this up because it is a truth we have to face. The neighborhood I lived in when I was in AZ, the school didn't have enough money to buy paper and pencils. Many people in AZ are very poor. All this bad stuff hits the poor first, and worst. Our ability to prepare and respond is not a given, we should appreciate any bandwidth we have.
Just moved here a year ago -- bought a house and moved from so cal where it’s insanely expensive -- told my wife today hey we prob should look to leave in the next 5 years We have a son who will be 2 next month and prob have another kid next year -- so as long as we move by the time my oldest is like kindergarten or first grade figure it’s not a big deal Figure short term home prices will go up when rates come down and people leave so cal and Seattle but long term we would need to go north somewhere What western states would you recommend most for climate change and water long term ?
@tonymontana1996 good to have a timeline for getting out. My family moved a fair bit when our kids were little like that, they didn't seem to have any trouble from it. In terms of the west, it's really about what kind of place you like. The places where I think folks should really consider getting out in the west, those are AZ, southern CA, NV, and much of TX. Other than that, if you think about a state you have enjoyed visiting or are interested in, watch the outlook & see what you think. There are some lower-change areas with decent outlooks in most western states.
@@AmericanResiliency awesome thank you just found your channel. What got me thinking about this was a podcast from the The Loan Officer Podcast that came out this week regarding mortgage loans (I'm a loan officer) --- where they spoke about how climate change is going to change the financing and loan to values on homes at climate change risk. obviously the homeowners insurance has already been affected -- but I didn't think about how the Loan to Values will change due to risk for the financing. LIke why would a lender do 3% down payment for a house in Houston/FL/LA? Crazy to think about. Funny enough I was out hunting scorpions as I was listening to the podcast --- I was like hey maybe this live forever in the Sonoran desert idea isn't the move hahaha :D
@@tonymontana1996 I hear a lot about changes in the insurance industry- I bet the impacts on the loan industry will also be massive. Kinda scary to think about. Keep us posted!
@user-lz5wf it's honestly interesting how the contemporary housing market pressures do continue to drive people into these areas that are not a great choice from the perspective of the climate outlook- and more than that, from the perspective of the water outlook, even aside from the climate outlook. The lower Colorado basin's water authorities have been sounding the alarm at every level that water is going to be a problem. As a society, we're stuck in this weird place where it's more normal to look at next quarter instead of next generation.
Thank you for this video..I have a cousin in Phoenix who needs to see this so ill send it too him..My question is..in a 2 degree scenario you mentioned Boise being a possible good choice what about the high desert communities of Twin Falls and southern Idaho..And maybe some insight into Northwest Colorado specifically Grand Junction...Thoughts..any insighr from you would be of great value to me..Thank you so much..
@michaelschiess8357 I see you found the Boise video- updated Idaho is out, too, I think you'll see a similar outlook in Twin Falls as to Boise. Pretty area there. For both of those cities, it's a challenging outlook but much better than we see in AZ. Better water outlook. I'm still working on Colorado's update, but we've got a pending drop for that video on May 9th
@@AmericanResiliency thank you for replying back..Yeah Arizona doesn't look good at all..I thought Flagstaff would be ok though, but those high risk fire conditions and increased heat just isn't good..looking forward to your updated Colorado 2C forecast even with the fire danger of the beautiful Rockies.
Man. This sucks. Those in power are so inept at solving this existential threat. It’s angering but everyone is happy to pull the wool lower around their eyes instead of raising their fists
@josevela4600 I hear you. Everyone watching their retirement accounts so hard they don't act- what retirement? What are we working for? Real threats are coming down the pipe. It's time to brace up and get on the right path, live like life matters.
These are truly scary times, my plants are already showing signs of heat/sun stress 😢 I'm trying to adapt but the weather is changing faster than I can keep up.
@koicaine1230 have you been out in any natural areas? I am having trouble with my domestic seedlings, but out in all my natural areas I hang out the spring flowering is just incredible. These are places I've been going for over a decade, and I've never seen so much abundance in terms of floral density. Not trying to minimize the weirdness of our situation, just curious if you're also seeing some of that edge of it.
@@AmericanResiliency Yes, I actually added a growing area on the East side of our property which is a wood line, there's more shade and protection from the wind and sun. I will probably end up doing the majority of my growing in that area, the garden just gets way too much sun.
My wife's entire family lives in and around both Tucson and Phoenix areas and even though most everybody knows that things arent getting any better, they still dont have any desire to move their families to a better place. Whenever the topic comes up about moving and relocating to a different state they say how far away Maine is, but their suggestion of Flagstaff to be close-ish to family seems just as bad as any other large city in Arizona. As for me I'm from Texas and I know my home state is going to become one of the hardest hit, if not the hardest hit states in the union. I know our hot days will go up and our water will dry up, I know our crops yield will take a beating along with our grid. So between that and the overpopulation, pollution, politics, and overall attitude of the state, me and my wife are looking to leave before the decade is out to Maine where I feel my family can ride out this upcoming catastrophe in relative peace and security. The only thing is to try to convince my in laws to follow us to Maine, I know any change is difficult but I think we can stick it out up north better then either Arizona nor Texas. At least we wouldn't run out of water up there. Thank you for your work, Emily we need more people like you who care.
@Johnnyraftssmith I'm just getting the Texas outlook ready to run on Thursday, and I'm sorry to say you are correct- I do think Texas will turn out to be the hardest hit of all, once this round of the project is over and I can look back. There are just so many types of challenges hitting the state at once. Wishing you all the best- maybe your extended family will be more willing to consider moving once you get up to Maine and get a little settled. Maine is a beautiful state, with many resilient people and communities. I'd recommend a very careful eye towards local flood risks when you're at the point of choosing a place.
Thank you, Emily, we are hoping to relocate to Maine after we finish some renovations and find an ideal location in the state. Hopefully, that'll be before the decade is out. As for the flood risk, I'm definitely looking for property that has varying elevations and a safe location away from where the major flooding will be at. I saw the Texas outlook and I agree with you and actually we're already experiencing these disruptions. Power outages are becoming more common with bad weather which worries me a lot. Last summer was already very bad. I could barely work on our property while my aunt and uncle suffered from heart problems while working outside. We even had a neighbor who passed away from just mowing his lawn at the wrong time of day. Even my cow peas stopped producing because it was so hot. This is getting very serious, but I think a lot of people are just too scared to even look.
@@Johnnyraftssmith the conditions you describe are truly frightening. The human health impacts, the potential for fatal heat injury, they are tragic and they are the kind of thing I think most of us have on the radar. But to hear that it's so hot cowpeas fail really strikes a new fear into me, I cultivate those guys as a summer crop of last resort. I hope you stay safe & find a place you really love.
I think there will be legal frameworks preventing this pretty soon. Just lets an area take rain that was going somewhere else. The west has such a tight legal framework around water rights, I can't see the big powers in the region sitting still on this issue for long.
I’m in flagstaff and have been here for almost 18 years. It has changed in my time here. AZ is not cheap like it used to be. Monsoons don’t last as long. I have been wanting to get outta here since 2018 but a divorce and the terrible courts here have kept me here but I’m ready to fight to get outta here
The way divorce can trap people- don't even get me started. A friend of mine in Iowa is trapped in one county, and the judge put it in right at the end. Our counties are really small in this state!!! She froze, didn't know how to object. Wishing you all the best. People don't even get all the ways one can be bound. They don't even see it.
@@AmericanResiliency thank u so much. My husband and I are definitely wanting to move. I absolutely love flagstaff but I mourn this place I will always think of home. Makes it harder my kids are 1/2 Navajo so we will always return here. But seeing the climate and water issues not to mention many other things it really doesn’t look good to stay in the long run in this town. Have a great evening and thank u! I’m so glad I found this channel tonight! We will be watching and doing our research
Stacking the 'Days Over' numbers seems...wrong? If it's over 95, it's over 95 (no matter how much) Can you explain why you feel that's the right approach?
@keithredfield991 I agree that over 95 should mean over 95. However, in the NCA5 original datasets, the hot data is "bounded" as 95-99, 100-104, and 105+. I do not feel that is the right approach, but that is how it was done. When we "stack" the datasets in this video, we are generating a number where over 95 means over 95. Does this make sense?
@@keithredfield991 the way these sets are bounded in the NCA5 was unclear to me when I first began exploring them. Wishing you all the best & let me know if you have any other questions. If you find something that seems weird, it might be- this high temp issue is the first really unexpected structural piece we've discovered with the AR team.
Made the mistqake of coming to Phoenix in 2000 and getting stuck here. Some points. Anybody living in Flagstaff over the last 20 years who'se not aware of the fire issue is a wilfully ingnorant idiot. There has been some attempts at thinning the forests in recent years. You can see huge piles of young felled trees in clearings as they try to return the forest to soemthing like it's natural state. But a lot more is needed. You still see huge swaths of densly packed thickets of thin saplings where almost no light penetratesto the floor. The state needs to step in and embark on a huge tree felling program. Wont change the temperature issue of course but might increase the remainder of the forests resiliance to fire somewhat. As for Phoenix. We are idiots to live here and my wife and I would be delighted to get out. For us anywhere north is better. Sedona in particular, or even Flag. No matter how much it heats up statewide Phoenix is always going to be way out in front on the highway to hell. And the influx is not going to reverse itself any time soon. TSMC has invested over 40 BILLION dollars in one of the worlds most advanced Chip fabrication plants in North Phoenix. I think growth here is going to continue essentially unchecked for the foseeable future, ludicrous though that seems. I think every house in Phoenix should be it's own power station. Solar arrays along with battery walls should be standard basic requirements of every house. And I'm not talking about getting a few bucks off your energy bill. I mean enough to run the AC all summer without needing to use the utilities. Every house in Phoenix, without exception should have a pool. In fact don't bother building a house here. Build a pool and if you really want to then stick a house next to it is the kind of mindset you will need here in future. As for meeting our climate goals. Sorry. It's not going to happen. That requires a concerted global effort of a planetwide civilization working in harmony for the goal. There is no chance of that unfortunately.
@petercollingwood522 that kind of energy self-sufficiency would go a long way. But it's not like we have an infinite amount of minerals. I think it's possible that millions of people just shouldn't be living there. We'll see what happens with our climate goals. I got interested in 2C projections because I thought the 1.5 limit seemed very likely to be breached back in 2015. But I did not think we'd be hanging out at 1.5 already.
Building codes in Phoenix/Arizona should be adjusted to mandate heavy insulation and full basements, along with white roofs and rainwater detention systems to prevent flash floods in a deluge situation. (And honestly it should be harvesting not detention but thats currently illegal out west) But yeah, overall the region is simply too hot and dry to permit continued and unsustainable growth.
@@jasonreed7522 I am not totally clear on if the conditions here permit basements- I know this is an issue in parts of Texas and the southeast, where access to passive cooling is also desirable. Flash floods are a big issue in this area, even with small amounts of rain!
@@AmericanResiliency after doing some googling (not the best research) most of the results say that the reason Arizona homes don't have basements is the cost of digging them in hard soils when the code doesn't require them to normally dig that deep. (Whereas the northeast has to dig 4ft to get below the frostline anyway, may as well go all out and get a basement for your trouble) I would say this is a problem of corporate developers trying to maximize profits at the expense of resiliency and climate appropriate home design. The technical issue of a basement in a flash flood prone area can be solved. Its also ideal to generally fix flash flooding in developed areas anyway. I believe the 2 big strategies for dealing with deluge type rain is to reduce impermeable surfaces (concrete and asphalt), and to implement rainwater detention systems that will store all the runoff from a storm and slowly release it into the watershed at a more manageable rate.
@@jasonreed7522 AZ homes have never had basements because there was enough space to just continue to spread out for ever and the only thing that matters to a business is maximizing profit. As for painting your roof white. it sounds nice but is meaningless. When the temps are over 110 for extended periods of days no amount of insulation or cute paint does any good. you need AC and and the sun should be powering it.
It's been a long time since we've experienced suffering on the scale I saw in this outlook. I don't relish one bit of it. Very difficult for many many living beings other than people, as well.
Thank you for this. It took me the last 6 years to position and get myself out of Tucson. And still people there aren't listening.
@stephanienelson7252 I'm glad you were able to relocate. It's not easy, not emotionally or financially or practically easy.
And also may I say I am so mad there's just no bright spot in the projections for Tucson. The whole thing feels really unfair and unjust.
It's very hard to get people to surrender what they have spent their lives building, especially if the bulk of their net worth is invested in their house.
@LaughingLion and people are embedded in community, people might have their garden how they like... it's hard to make a big change. I hope I'm wrong about AZ, but it looks to me like the writing is on the wall about home value there in the long term.
@@AmericanResiliency You aren't wrong, but the people with the most capacity to be mobile would be young, late 20s early 30s who haven't got a gigantic investment in a house, business or career in a particular area. You are seeing people like this leaving ultra-expensive areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco. But then they move to Phoenix.
Your video was great and should be eye-opening if people are willing to pay attention. I caught it due to a post on reddit (which is mostly a cesspool) on r/collapse. A lot of people from Arizona, when these facts are pointed out say "it's a dry heat in the midwest/Texas the wet bulb mortalities will be worse" or else "well AMOC is going to collapse to this place will be better than the East Coast" or else "yeah, but I hate winter". The bottom line is that they don't want to see the truth.
I don't understand why some people don't just say they are willing to die where they are. Like, just be cool with it. It's a respectable choice. Many people would rather die than move, like a tree. And many people if they were honest with themselves would rather die than change.
You are gifted at delivering tough diagnoses and prognoses while at the same time offering practical ways of responding. This is a rare skill generally, but definitely rare in the “doom-o-sphere” and other climate-aware and doom-adjacent corners of the internet!
@Corrie-fd9ww there's a lot we can learn from medicine in terms of delivering hard news. And, like in medicine and in boxing, final calls should only be made at the end of a solid count.
That’s a good point, actually- learning from healers and healing professions with how to communicate this stuff. But lol there’s way too much calling things early on the internet. Humans love certainty when things are uncertain!
I’ve been waiting for this and it was worth it! thank you! I’m sending this to my family down in Tucson - there is no way to sugar coat the outlook. I hope I can convince them the way you’ve convinced me. ✌🏼
@bubblegirl2768 wishing you and your family all the best. Let them know for me, there are plenty of reasons to stay that anyone should respect. But there's also a lot of other desert places with better outlooks. I think the news is easier to take, a little, if a person hears staying in a beautiful desert is on the table.
Flagstaff is so pretty - I’ve hiked Humphries many times and flowers in the caldera change every couple of weeks - thank you for your reporting
Flagstaff is a beautiful place. You are welcome- this was especially emotionally difficult information to process.
Thank you for the plain talk. Arizona needs far more preparation for the new intensity rains.
This is a new style of communication -- Your plain speaking will bring in lots of attention... some of it unwanted.
@rapauli I had a job where I was supposed to bend things around to keep people calm during the pandemic. I never want to do that again. I'm sure this plain talk will hurt, but I hope people can hear that I don't take any pleasure in it. And I never knew many desert people to be fond of bullsh*t, anyway.
Thank you from Tucson
Thank you, Dr, I appreciate your candor. And I appreciate your telling folks exactly what the data says.
@SebastopolTV I try to share the information as clearly as I can- sometimes it is sure hard to look at.
I'm working up steam to do California- probably have to split it into North & South to get people a usable level of detail. Fingers crossed for you all.
When you get around to the behemoth of CA, please consider beaking it up into southern CA and Northern CA to give each area and all it's population centers a bit more depth. I have a hunch you have a ton of viewers on CA so it will be time well spent.
@Zack-dz5dj I am inclined to break CA that way for the videos this time around. The diversity of outcomes in the state is huge, but I think a north-south split makes the most sense with the water outlook. I don't have CA on the calendar yet but I think probably it'll be in June.
Thank you for your service.
This is interesting to see from neighboring NM - good coverage.
Being familiar with much of Arizona, the warming area you describe as Humphrey's Peak / Flagstaff is further east and a little south - Payson or the Tonto Basin and valley areas to the south, which currently transition into Sonoran Desert quickly at Gisela and continue around Roosevelt Lake. The other area you describe as concerning near Flagstaff is actually lower and 40-50 miles east, the Little Colorado Valley - Cameron just east of the Grand Canyon to Holbrook, which is similar to the central NM valley between Socorro and north of Albuquerque.
@desertdc123 if you have a better eye than me on this, I assure you I would be absolutely delighted. I would believe I could be off to those margins. These scripts get checked (this one had four readers) but these videos are state-level outlooks. Especially in areas with detailed topography, ground checks with local knowledge are important.
@@AmericanResiliency Glad to help with a closer look, at least where I'm familiar in the SW and southern plains. Some of the areas you're showing as safer or at least more insulated from extreme daytime and especially nighttime warming seem to revolve around higher elevation and nearness to large mountain masses.
I have been studying climate zones since I switched from meteorology to landscape architecture in college in the mid-1980's. It's really interesting, especially figuring out which plants and design considerations truly work or don't.
Denver and all the central and southern plains are so chaotic, where I spent high school and college. The more one is separated from the plains, the more stable the temperatures especially cool season - Alamogordo to Albuquerque have one mountain range to buffer artic fronts, while Las Cruces, T or C, and west have 2 or more mountain ranges. And so on. I lived in ABQ 21 years, moving to El Paso then Las Cruces the last 11 years. The south warms more in winter than it does in summer compared to the central (ABQ), but the nights are really warming here...ABQ growing season decreased 2 days 1981-2010 to 1991-2020, but Las Cruces growing season increased 10 days. Slight but I can see it...and..... ABQ 4900-6200 ft elevation, lat 35N - Las Cruces 3800-4500 ft elevation, lat 32N.
@@desertdc123 if you wouldn't mind emailing me I'd appreciate it- ar@americanresiliency.org. Would love to get your thoughts on draft scripts as I work through the southern plains. The kinds of differences and details you notice are important.
@@AmericanResiliency I just sent you an email.
A lot of people can’t afford to just up and move. So one way or another some people won’t get out. It is what it is.
@loshuskiespack9456, I'm glad you bring this up because it is a truth we have to face. The neighborhood I lived in when I was in AZ, the school didn't have enough money to buy paper and pencils. Many people in AZ are very poor. All this bad stuff hits the poor first, and worst. Our ability to prepare and respond is not a given, we should appreciate any bandwidth we have.
Just moved here a year ago -- bought a house and moved from so cal where it’s insanely expensive -- told my wife today hey we prob should look to leave in the next 5 years
We have a son who will be 2 next month and prob have another kid next year -- so as long as we move by the time my oldest is like kindergarten or first grade figure it’s not a big deal
Figure short term home prices will go up when rates come down and people leave so cal and Seattle but long term we would need to go north somewhere
What western states would you recommend most for climate change and water long term ?
@tonymontana1996 good to have a timeline for getting out. My family moved a fair bit when our kids were little like that, they didn't seem to have any trouble from it.
In terms of the west, it's really about what kind of place you like. The places where I think folks should really consider getting out in the west, those are AZ, southern CA, NV, and much of TX. Other than that, if you think about a state you have enjoyed visiting or are interested in, watch the outlook & see what you think. There are some lower-change areas with decent outlooks in most western states.
@@AmericanResiliency awesome thank you just found your channel.
What got me thinking about this was a podcast from the The Loan Officer Podcast that came out this week regarding mortgage loans (I'm a loan officer) --- where they spoke about how climate change is going to change the financing and loan to values on homes at climate change risk.
obviously the homeowners insurance has already been affected -- but I didn't think about how the Loan to Values will change due to risk for the financing.
LIke why would a lender do 3% down payment for a house in Houston/FL/LA? Crazy to think about.
Funny enough I was out hunting scorpions as I was listening to the podcast --- I was like hey maybe this live forever in the Sonoran desert idea isn't the move hahaha :D
@@tonymontana1996 I hear a lot about changes in the insurance industry- I bet the impacts on the loan industry will also be massive. Kinda scary to think about. Keep us posted!
And yet Phoenix just keeps on growing...
How long do you think the explosive growth of Arizona's population will carry on for?
@user-lz5wf it's honestly interesting how the contemporary housing market pressures do continue to drive people into these areas that are not a great choice from the perspective of the climate outlook- and more than that, from the perspective of the water outlook, even aside from the climate outlook. The lower Colorado basin's water authorities have been sounding the alarm at every level that water is going to be a problem. As a society, we're stuck in this weird place where it's more normal to look at next quarter instead of next generation.
Thank you for this video..I have a cousin in Phoenix who needs to see this so ill send it too him..My question is..in a 2 degree scenario you mentioned Boise being a possible good choice what about the high desert communities of Twin Falls and southern Idaho..And maybe some insight into Northwest Colorado specifically Grand Junction...Thoughts..any insighr from you would be of great value to me..Thank you so much..
@michaelschiess8357 I see you found the Boise video- updated Idaho is out, too, I think you'll see a similar outlook in Twin Falls as to Boise. Pretty area there. For both of those cities, it's a challenging outlook but much better than we see in AZ. Better water outlook.
I'm still working on Colorado's update, but we've got a pending drop for that video on May 9th
@@AmericanResiliency thank you for replying back..Yeah Arizona doesn't look good at all..I thought Flagstaff would be ok though, but those high risk fire conditions and increased heat just isn't good..looking forward to your updated Colorado 2C forecast even with the fire danger of the beautiful Rockies.
Man. This sucks. Those in power are so inept at solving this existential threat. It’s angering but everyone is happy to pull the wool lower around their eyes instead of raising their fists
@josevela4600 I hear you. Everyone watching their retirement accounts so hard they don't act- what retirement? What are we working for? Real threats are coming down the pipe. It's time to brace up and get on the right path, live like life matters.
@@AmericanResiliencySouth Texas I fear is in a similar position. So sad.
Looks like it. Texas is taking some other big hits, too. I'm still working up the steam to tell that story
@@AmericanResiliency You do amazing work in the face of adversity. Thank you for what you do
These are truly scary times, my plants are already showing signs of heat/sun stress 😢 I'm trying to adapt but the weather is changing faster than I can keep up.
@koicaine1230 have you been out in any natural areas? I am having trouble with my domestic seedlings, but out in all my natural areas I hang out the spring flowering is just incredible. These are places I've been going for over a decade, and I've never seen so much abundance in terms of floral density. Not trying to minimize the weirdness of our situation, just curious if you're also seeing some of that edge of it.
@@AmericanResiliency Yes, I actually added a growing area on the East side of our property which is a wood line, there's more shade and protection from the wind and sun. I will probably end up doing the majority of my growing in that area, the garden just gets way too much sun.
My wife's entire family lives in and around both Tucson and Phoenix areas and even though most everybody knows that things arent getting any better, they still dont have any desire to move their families to a better place. Whenever the topic comes up about moving and relocating to a different state they say how far away Maine is, but their suggestion of Flagstaff to be close-ish to family seems just as bad as any other large city in Arizona.
As for me I'm from Texas and I know my home state is going to become one of the hardest hit, if not the hardest hit states in the union. I know our hot days will go up and our water will dry up, I know our crops yield will take a beating along with our grid. So between that and the overpopulation, pollution, politics, and overall attitude of the state, me and my wife are looking to leave before the decade is out to Maine where I feel my family can ride out this upcoming catastrophe in relative peace and security.
The only thing is to try to convince my in laws to follow us to Maine, I know any change is difficult but I think we can stick it out up north better then either Arizona nor Texas.
At least we wouldn't run out of water up there.
Thank you for your work, Emily we need more people like you who care.
@Johnnyraftssmith I'm just getting the Texas outlook ready to run on Thursday, and I'm sorry to say you are correct- I do think Texas will turn out to be the hardest hit of all, once this round of the project is over and I can look back. There are just so many types of challenges hitting the state at once.
Wishing you all the best- maybe your extended family will be more willing to consider moving once you get up to Maine and get a little settled. Maine is a beautiful state, with many resilient people and communities. I'd recommend a very careful eye towards local flood risks when you're at the point of choosing a place.
Thank you, Emily, we are hoping to relocate to Maine after we finish some renovations and find an ideal location in the state. Hopefully, that'll be before the decade is out.
As for the flood risk, I'm definitely looking for property that has varying elevations and a safe location away from where the major flooding will be at.
I saw the Texas outlook and I agree with you and actually we're already experiencing these disruptions. Power outages are becoming more common with bad weather which worries me a lot. Last summer was already very bad. I could barely work on our property while my aunt and uncle suffered from heart problems while working outside. We even had a neighbor who passed away from just mowing his lawn at the wrong time of day. Even my cow peas stopped producing because it was so hot. This is getting very serious, but I think a lot of people are just too scared to even look.
@@Johnnyraftssmith the conditions you describe are truly frightening. The human health impacts, the potential for fatal heat injury, they are tragic and they are the kind of thing I think most of us have on the radar. But to hear that it's so hot cowpeas fail really strikes a new fear into me, I cultivate those guys as a summer crop of last resort. I hope you stay safe & find a place you really love.
What would happen if Arizona started cloud seeding?
Not much
I think there will be legal frameworks preventing this pretty soon. Just lets an area take rain that was going somewhere else. The west has such a tight legal framework around water rights, I can't see the big powers in the region sitting still on this issue for long.
"We're all gonna find out..." never sounded so ominous.
@nsbd90now we're in a weird place, to put it mildly. I try and keep a pretty close eye on the information coming in.
I’m in flagstaff and have been here for almost 18 years. It has changed in my time here. AZ is not cheap like it used to be. Monsoons don’t last as long. I have been wanting to get outta here since 2018 but a divorce and the terrible courts here have kept me here but I’m ready to fight to get outta here
The way divorce can trap people- don't even get me started. A friend of mine in Iowa is trapped in one county, and the judge put it in right at the end. Our counties are really small in this state!!! She froze, didn't know how to object.
Wishing you all the best. People don't even get all the ways one can be bound. They don't even see it.
@@AmericanResiliency thank u so much. My husband and I are definitely wanting to move. I absolutely love flagstaff but I mourn this place I will always think of home. Makes it harder my kids are 1/2 Navajo so we will always return here. But seeing the climate and water issues not to mention many other things it really doesn’t look good to stay in the long run in this town. Have a great evening and thank u! I’m so glad I found this channel tonight! We will be watching and doing our research
Let me know if you have any questions - I'm always glad to help
Stacking the 'Days Over' numbers seems...wrong? If it's over 95, it's over 95 (no matter how much) Can you explain why you feel that's the right approach?
@keithredfield991 I agree that over 95 should mean over 95. However, in the NCA5 original datasets, the hot data is "bounded" as 95-99, 100-104, and 105+. I do not feel that is the right approach, but that is how it was done.
When we "stack" the datasets in this video, we are generating a number where over 95 means over 95.
Does this make sense?
@@AmericanResiliency Ah thank you! I'm trying to muddle my way through NCA5 interactive maps (without a login)
@@keithredfield991 the way these sets are bounded in the NCA5 was unclear to me when I first began exploring them. Wishing you all the best & let me know if you have any other questions. If you find something that seems weird, it might be- this high temp issue is the first really unexpected structural piece we've discovered with the AR team.
B E E P B O O P A L G O R I T H M
Thanks!
@michaelbehlen1842 thanks so much!
Made the mistqake of coming to Phoenix in 2000 and getting stuck here. Some points. Anybody living in Flagstaff over the last 20 years who'se not aware of the fire issue is a wilfully ingnorant idiot. There has been some attempts at thinning the forests in recent years. You can see huge piles of young felled trees in clearings as they try to return the forest to soemthing like it's natural state. But a lot more is needed. You still see huge swaths of densly packed thickets of thin saplings where almost no light penetratesto the floor. The state needs to step in and embark on a huge tree felling program. Wont change the temperature issue of course but might increase the remainder of the forests resiliance to fire somewhat.
As for Phoenix. We are idiots to live here and my wife and I would be delighted to get out. For us anywhere north is better. Sedona in particular, or even Flag. No matter how much it heats up statewide Phoenix is always going to be way out in front on the highway to hell. And the influx is not going to reverse itself any time soon. TSMC has invested over 40 BILLION dollars in one of the worlds most advanced Chip fabrication plants in North Phoenix. I think growth here is going to continue essentially unchecked for the foseeable future, ludicrous though that seems.
I think every house in Phoenix should be it's own power station. Solar arrays along with battery walls should be standard basic requirements of every house. And I'm not talking about getting a few bucks off your energy bill. I mean enough to run the AC all summer without needing to use the utilities.
Every house in Phoenix, without exception should have a pool. In fact don't bother building a house here. Build a pool and if you really want to then stick a house next to it is the kind of mindset you will need here in future.
As for meeting our climate goals. Sorry. It's not going to happen. That requires a concerted global effort of a planetwide civilization working in harmony for the goal. There is no chance of that unfortunately.
@petercollingwood522 that kind of energy self-sufficiency would go a long way. But it's not like we have an infinite amount of minerals. I think it's possible that millions of people just shouldn't be living there.
We'll see what happens with our climate goals. I got interested in 2C projections because I thought the 1.5 limit seemed very likely to be breached back in 2015. But I did not think we'd be hanging out at 1.5 already.
Building codes in Phoenix/Arizona should be adjusted to mandate heavy insulation and full basements, along with white roofs and rainwater detention systems to prevent flash floods in a deluge situation. (And honestly it should be harvesting not detention but thats currently illegal out west)
But yeah, overall the region is simply too hot and dry to permit continued and unsustainable growth.
@@jasonreed7522 I am not totally clear on if the conditions here permit basements- I know this is an issue in parts of Texas and the southeast, where access to passive cooling is also desirable.
Flash floods are a big issue in this area, even with small amounts of rain!
@@AmericanResiliency after doing some googling (not the best research) most of the results say that the reason Arizona homes don't have basements is the cost of digging them in hard soils when the code doesn't require them to normally dig that deep. (Whereas the northeast has to dig 4ft to get below the frostline anyway, may as well go all out and get a basement for your trouble)
I would say this is a problem of corporate developers trying to maximize profits at the expense of resiliency and climate appropriate home design.
The technical issue of a basement in a flash flood prone area can be solved. Its also ideal to generally fix flash flooding in developed areas anyway.
I believe the 2 big strategies for dealing with deluge type rain is to reduce impermeable surfaces (concrete and asphalt), and to implement rainwater detention systems that will store all the runoff from a storm and slowly release it into the watershed at a more manageable rate.
@@jasonreed7522 AZ homes have never had basements because there was enough space to just continue to spread out for ever and the only thing that matters to a business is maximizing profit. As for painting your roof white. it sounds nice but is meaningless. When the temps are over 110 for extended periods of days no amount of insulation or cute paint does any good. you need AC and and the sun should be powering it.
I know the hills around Flagstaff like the back of my hand. I will not be sad to see Flagstaff fall though. It's a cursed city if there ever was one.
It's been a long time since we've experienced suffering on the scale I saw in this outlook. I don't relish one bit of it. Very difficult for many many living beings other than people, as well.
@ThomasEschleman-tp2ru it's built on sacred native American lands that's why
@@zed6095 Bunk.