Why Pogačar Will Win The Tour + Was Vingegaard’s 1x A Mistake? - Wild Ones Pro Show TdF Stage 4
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ก.ค. 2024
- Highlights and discuss from Stage 4 of the Tour de France 2024
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the beauty and the tradgedy of a grand tour is that anything can happen at anytime. we have a long way to go.
Good fun talking about bike racing
Thanks for doing that! Your level of knowledge and understanding of the tour mechanics is on par with Eurosport commentators on a good day.
Yes, good mention of Bini for green, he's certainly mixing it up in the intermediates!
You should have Chris on daily during the tour podcasts. He clearly adds some depth of knowledge and knows both tactics and tech as well as stats and has some racing pedigree. So he makes the perfect "expert."
Yes, no disrespect to Tony but I'm enjoying this one with Chris much more.
100% agree - Chris is excellent. And anyone with enough gumption to ride a TT bike on a trainer for 5 hours deserves more air time.
I love these updates after a day's TdF racing. Come on Cavendish ! Greetings team from Prague. CZ
Big. Up Amy cycling adventures
Cant see anyone staying with poggy, hes just too good, he can climb, sprint well enough, and has incredible endurance, I think he will have a go at all 3
Jonas knows now how pog felt the last 2 years with his non existent team
Seeing Jonas alone surrounded by uae was quite a shocker! For sure didnt help his confidence
Pog had a very good team last year
The Sepp loss cannot be overstated here. Never seen visma dominated as a team that way.
Kuss and Kruiswijk are missed, and WvA has trained to be the best he can in the classics which were his main goal this year so don't expect him to be good in the high mountains like he once was.
Still, it's just the start of the tour. Kelderman isn't Kuss, but also always has his best week at the end if he stays on his bike long enough. And Mateo will I think grow a bit, but even if he doesn't it's his debut so I don't expect him to fill Kruiswijks shoes right away.
UAE led the UCI point ranking last year, and Yates had a podium finish at the Tour. UAE was very strong last year. Jonas was just better. Too bad he's coming into this year's Tour recovering from what could have been career ending injuries.
Thoroughly appreciate how well everyone is pronouncing Vingegaard!
How can people just assume Vingegaard will definitely be stronger the third week? He may, or he may be just more worn out or miles behind by then, we have no way of knowing how his endurance and recovery have been affected by his crash. Something must give if you lose two months of training
I mean Jonas can always attack to try to win back time, but with Ayuso, Almeida (and Yates who i think is holdingback to week 3 a la Kuss) then Pogi has plenty of allies to help to bring him back or limit the damage to seconds.
Poggi is not some1 to be attacked easily
Well not on the last time Trial... And if he die like last year in the mountains no one can help him.
@@KnowIt74 Last year Jonas had a team. This year he has some distant approximation of one,
@@tonyg3091 You are right... But Pig had a good team last year and a very good team this year... So if/when pog lose he and his fanboys have no more excuses.
@@KnowIt74 last year he also had a broken wrist and a cold.
You guys are getting monster daily views for these. Well done!
Love your daily stuff guys - keep going!
At last someone who knows what he's talking about when it comes to TdF with a humble smile and soft honesty that is so enduring.
AND .... What does he do??? He's on the trainer during the stage!!
He's a BEAST and a great man.
CHRIS HALL is in the room !!!!
Yes! Loved his analysis and opinions. On par with Lanterne Rogue (Patrick)
Great guest star ⭐⭐⭐✨✨.
I think Jonas is getting into form.
So for the 2 half I think he will be better.
And the last 3-4 mountainstages is in the south so they might get really hot.
And Pogacar has cracked quite bad in the heat before.
So anything can happen still.
And Visma doesn't ride Zipp cause they ride Reserve which is Cervelos own wheels.
So they haven´t picked the wheels themselves.
Pogi does a lot of heat training for this TDF so the heat wont affect him this time.
@@clayvianwilliams6125 Hope so, but he is clearly someone who's willing to work on his weakness. Look at him at Giro, he was on TT bike all the time to improve his TT form.
@@clayvianwilliams6125 We´ll see.
He can´t really have done that much training in the heat during the 5 weeks between the giro and the tour.
And before the Giro it wasn't really that hot yet.
So well see what happens if it gets as warm as last year during the tour.
@@denisspratt926 He trained in heat room for the tour where they control the temperature to mimic summer.
@@clayvianwilliams6125 ok. Might he a good idea but also might have destroyed his recovery from the Giro.
Abrahamsen said they only had small sizes for the polkadot. He had problems getting into the skinsuit
Love those daily uploads, keep it up guys
Guys this content is flippen excellent! Bravo
Thanks Chris , Emily , and Jimmi...4 stages , and already buzzing !
This show is amazing thank you for everything
It’s so easy to talk about this triple because none of us are doing it but it’s a tremendous amount of abuse on the body to possibly not win. And then no shot at the Olympics or worlds. He’s made it clear he isn’t doing it
@@Murda2615 the big check he gets for doing the vuelta may prove otherwise. The viewership numbers for Vuelta would go way up if Pog wins Le Tour and competes in that race. Money talks
@@J-cz7yv yea but he understands the reality that so many people aren’t thinking about. He could possibly completely blow up and then what. The juice just ain’t worth the squeeze to him. Not everything that’s important to all these fans may not be the same for him people don’t consider that
@@Murda2615 oh my guys I think we are on the same page though. If his agent is any bit smart, you would never commit to the vuelta. Say you’re doing worlds and that’s your focus, if he can finish the Tour on top… that’s when the organizers and sponsors will come begging with the money bags for his participation in the vuelta.
@@J-cz7yv but even when he wins the tour I don’t think he will commit. Also not just the wear on him but the rest of the team
@@Murda2615 maybe! We will see though! I like to think that any person on the team selected for Vuelta would be more than thrilled to participate in history regardless of missing next 1-2 months of races. And I don’t mean to harp on this point to much but those riders would be compensated more than fairly. Possibly I’m judging being romantic about the idea of a triple. lol it’s a long way away and like you said, the signs indicate he doesn’t intend to do it! (Yet 😉)
Waiting in anticipation for this next TDF vid! I took a days holiday at work as I had a hope today would be the day! Get in Cav lad!!!!!
Carapaz has been riding is gold bike since he's been with EF. Ironically the colour is more bronze-like than gold...
Alejandro Valverde attempted the 3 Gandtours in 2016 finishing 3rd at the Giro, 6th at the Tour and 12th at the Vuelta ;-)
Absent incident or accident, it's over. Jonas is going to fade, no one else is close. Some day we'll see these two monsters have a good fully prepared battle again. This year isn't it.
Yes Chris Hall ! Almost all of my favorite peeps together.
Who is this guy, some sort of survival expert? Can we have Ray Mears on too?
@@thefollandgnat8628Pretty much. Animal on the bike.
Triple!!! Hell yeah! I bet Pogacar is waiting to make the announcement until after he wins the Tour.
Also, I am really impressed with Remco. It's only stage 4, but he has ridden smart and strong. I'm really excited for the TT. He'll claw back some time on Pogacar is my guess.
Nothing is done, have you seen the third week ?
It will be a different Jonas then with plenty of rest.
I do hope he does the vuelta for a historic triple but I'm not sure he can and want to ride a third grand tour.
@@WesternUranus I hope Jonas recovers! This really seems like a Tour de France for the ages. I hope to tell my toddler stories about the epic battles for the 2024 TdF! So far, it hasn't disappointed at all. ❤️
The triple he cares about is Giro, Tour world championships not Vuelta. He's said all year that's the goal and the world's course is the most favorable to him that it will be for a while.
Emily's edit on "Fluff up of the day" is too much 😂
Strictly the green jersey is for most consistent finisher as most points are from the finish. Usually sprinters will get this as they are not content to finish in the main bunch (where everyone gets the same time)
Awesome show guys - keep it up!
Personally, I don't believe Pog is going for a triple unless he feels exceptionally good after Tour is over (which is highly unlikely). Mind you, Vuelta starts less than a month after. Tour/Vuelta double this year will be much harder than Giro/Tour.
8:04 Chris called it 🎉🎉🎉
Liked the old bike shopesque background! Are y'all in a new location??
Thank you. Its 98 not 88 as some outlets have said instead.
Wtf, 1x? Maybe today, at the pro rider's speed, chain line might be still sorta ok on the relatively shallow climbs today, at the steeper stuff, horrible chainline would cost too much power.
Will be Closer than we all think, stage 9 is the break away stage. This is where every rider will go full beans and push. Be interesting to see how things look after stage 9 in Troyes.
Thing is Jonas doesnt have nearly the same team as in the last 2 editions, he cant put whole visma train a climb or 2 on the front to set a crazy pace to wear Pogi down before he attacks him. Its totally opposite in this tour.
That is actually funny to read... If Visma pulls Pogi will be worn down and if UAE pulls Jonas will be worn down... That is not how that works... It is correct that a strong team is a big strategic help but it is Jonas or Pogi that needs the legs to win... In 2020 Pogi won with a weak team
@@knudskoubo1090 if you are down in week3 and want to attack, but dont have the team to wear down your opponent they are much more likely to follow your attacks, in this case if pogi has some time over vingegaard in week3 obviously UAE wont pace like crazy so pogi will be pretty "fresh" if/when vingegaard attacks comapred to if visma could pace hard climb or 2 before... hell by the way UAE are looking maybe even ayuso/yates or almedia anwser his attacks instead of pogi...
His Vietnam era tiger striped cammo is definitely old school.
thanks Emily for mentioning the sole reason Jonas was running 1x was because of marketing. you're in la la land if you think running 1x gives you any advantage in a TDF mountain stage
I really appreciate the energy and enthusiasm you guys put into this show. I like Patrik and Benji on LRCP but they have so little energy in the way they talk that it makes it a bit of a boring watch at times. You guys keep it fresh with guests each episode and don't get bogged down arguing over speculative tactical decisions for 30 minutes. Love the podcast, keep it up!
With Jonas's ribs can he be strong in that TT position?
you guys are killing it with these digests. thank you.
Mr. Hall. Old school Cade!!
The "GCN racing" and "GCN" YT channels did a run down on the jersey colors and points systems and how the points change based on the category of climb/sprint as well. There are several videos on the topic from overview to more indepth. It was good to watch when a newbie trying to understand.
Good post-stage yarns. 👍
Contador also did the treble. But not in the same calendar year.
No one gets stronger over the course of the Tour. Some riders just degrade more slowly. Vingegaard is likely to have a similar Tour to Pog’s last year.
Where did chris get that awesome tiger stripe jacket, I also in my heart think that if pogi wins the tour the pressure for him to try for the triple will be almost impossible for pogi ti not go fir it
Hello from Ireland! Hey Chris....where did you get your hat?
With JV only going to get better as the tour goes on, I think Pog will actually be disappointed not to be minutes ahead by now.
That's one pretty bike. Like rusty, but gold.
Pogy stated in an interview that he only went full gas in the last 200m of the climb because of the very strong headwind.
Do you really count everything a Pro says in an interview as true and informative? No matter what sport it is the interviews are a joke.
Missed out Annemiek van Vleuten’s quadruple in 22 (I think), also became world champ!
I'm surprised Pog didn't go earlier. He seems go always go really late, at least compared to attacks of the past. I mean he smashed it...and who am I...but would he not have made an even bigger gap going early and where the chances of people joining up on the downhill would be less?
Shame on you for not knowing Marc Madiot 😮
Double shame! Only a double Paris-Roubaix winner, Tour de France stage winner, been involved in pro level cycling for 43 of the last 45 years!! 😅
Hello garmin sponsored cade media question, after my activity my garmin watch tells me how long it will take to recover, I guess this feature is on head units, so what does a pros say after a tdf stage and how bad will look after the entire tour.
Pog puts another minute in V in the upcoming TT.
Yeah probably. No slip stream for Jonas to hide in and we saw the power difference on a downhill… so yeah probably at least a minute.
@@J-cz7yvI agree he wil take time but I think it will be like 25sec cuz its pretty short.
Nice shaket.
Great report - but your prediction of Jonas being faster on the TT will prove wrong
Did you see Jonas' face when he crossed the finish line, he was exhausted. He was wasted but both Jonas and Tadej recover pretty amazingly.
That's true. If Sepp Kuss was there, he might have been able to help Jonas down
I personally though Jonas was spun on out the descent.. He could have used a bigger front ring as we was in the 10 from what I could see on the coverage. Plus, I think he was a tad gun shy on the descent as we was not directly behind tadej
he was dropped on the descent for 2 reasons: Tadej weighs more than Jonas, and being a smaller person Jonas has less total power. Watts per Kilogram mean nothing on a downhill. It's total watts. What was keeping Jonas close for a little while is that he can corner better than Tadej but weight and power won out.
@@buzzman4860 That's true, but common sense or lack there of can also win or loose a bike race. Pogi rode stupidly on that descend IMO. There was no need to put on the show he did especially since it didn't really gain him that much time.
UAE look much stronger than Visma this year, I can't see Vingegaard getting the support he would need to win it. Even if Vingegaard was fully fit and didn't have his injury, it would be a huge ask
With that backdrop chris looks like he's about to on a stag hunt. Jonas still has time but i think he hasn't got his mojo back 100% no doubt
After the descent and flat to the finishing line there was many turnings, it doesn't favor the train much on a high speed ... no?
nice job showing some videos from the race even if they were filmed on someone's nokia 👍
yellow bar take looks nice
Giro fatigue to kick in in the latter stages of the tour for Pog as Jonas hits his best form at the same times. If Jumbos team can stay strong deep into the race Jonas is in with a chance to take it late on
Thats just assumption. I could say that Tadej will get even stronger and Jonas will have bad day because his recovery is not as it was good last year thanks to his injuries...
Yatessss were so strooong
Another great episode! Easier english guest for a non native listner
UAE have one big flaw... he is called Ayuso. And if they don't settle this thing out ASAP, there will be consequences later in the race.
When you see Grischa in an interview, you need to watch his eyes, smile and tone of voice. It will tell you whether this was their plan and how Jonas feels and how many secrets they hold. They cant show all their cards. That team is as sleazy as it gets
We will know who will win when the winner gets announced.
Spoken too soon. This is not the first time Pogacar has come into the first week of the Tour fighting full blast... only to be depleted--relative to Vingegaard--in week three. That is far more likely this year because he has had very little time to recover since the Giro. Everyone expected Tadej to be ahead after Stage One, and Stage Two was perfectly suited to Pogacar's style and performance. Bingegaard does better with long series of high mountains, which will come in two weeks, by which time Jonas will be even stronger post-Basque-crash than he clearly already is (to everyone's surprise). Visma is definitely missing Kuss and Van Aert is not yet as good as expected, but the latter should also gain progressive strength during the race as well, and I think thus far, UAE has not been as stellar as one would expect on paper.
Not only is Ving not 100%, but without Kuss and Roglic, and Wout not being 100%, there's no way Ving can beat Pog. Pog has all the guns with him this year, and there's no way they let him lose.
Early days, sometimes the obvious isn't so obvious. Considering what Jonas has been through recovering from a crash, he is playing possum.
Wait wait wait, Jonas will be opening that can of Woop arse soon enough.
For Visma to do the triple with three different riders was unheard of last year. Has any one rider ever won all three in the same season?
No.
Triple Crown is considered to be Giro-TdF-WC ( World championships ). And I think it's been done twice. Vuelta does not have same standing as Giro or Tour.
@@MarvinWestmaas Vuelta is 30years or so younger than giro and tour, thats why back in the days giro-tdf-wc was considered a triple crown and i mean it still is ofc. Tho it seems to be pretty clear that winning all 3 GT in a season is much harder since it has never been done before.
I was very surprised to see Vingegaard on an S5. I wonder why???
Given UCIs minimum weight, I’d assume they were able to get the S5 in Jonas’s size down to the same weight as the R5. In which case there’s no reason to ride a less aero dynamic bike. I’d assume it’d be easy to get the R5 under the weight limit, but that’s not relevant in the context.
jimmi, you just dress so well
the coming TT i think will be more important than the final TT. Stage 9 should be quite problematic for Vingo, Remco and Roglic. Looking forward to watching MVDP, Wout, Piddy and Pogi go ham in that stage.
misread schedule, thought it was the itt sorry I'm a 🤡
Stage 9 is not the ITT, stage 9 is the gravel stage
@@l3monsquare296 oops
@@MarvinWestmaas yeah I probably could have done a better job of making it more clear that i was talking about 2 separate stages. Agreed that the ITT should be epic, 4 of the biggest hitters in ITT plus Wout should make for a heck of a stage. I would be more inclined to measure what Pogacar might do based on his Giro performance than the his performance in the final TT in ‘23 but the margins should be razor thin between those 5. The gravel in stage 9 will be a blast to watch.
Hello!!!
Carapaz’s bike look like heavily patina bronze rather than gold.
ah yes after 4 stages the tour is over!!!!
Don’t be fool, this I only the 4th stage. Realize that today Jonas won big time today.
😂🤦♂️
@@darrelltampin3340 You can facepalm all you want, but they actually expected Vingegaard to be more behind then he is. As Vingegaard said, compared with the time they thought they would have lost in these first days, they've actually won.
Also, you're basing everything on a descent, not a climb. Yes, he made time but it's not the same kind of time one can make going up a mountain. 30 seconds can be corrected in a few km in the right direction.
@@MarvinWestmaas He got 10sec on Jonas after ~800m of a climb/attack, if a climb was longer he would have put even more time into Jonas today. Hell even Remco was starting to catch up with Jonas at the top, but then lack of his downhill skills came into play.
@@dynamo6735 It was the other way around, Jonas kept a steady 10s gap till the top but lost on second stage of the descent because Pog has the advantage of weight.
The climb was much longer, Pog didn't attack sooner because he didn't think he could make more time if he did or he would have.
You can try to bend reality into any shape you find more appealing, it doesn't change how it looks to others ;)
@@MarvinWestmaas I was reffering to Remcos downhill skills and him losing time against Jonas (he was +4-5sec at the summit to Jonas), not Jonas to Pogi, its clear to everyone that Pogi gained on downhill since he weighs more and has bigger overall power output.
Pogi didnt attack earlier because there was headwind, and the early part of the climb wasnt steep enough/person behind him would have lot more benefit because of slipstream.
Im not bending reality, you should just work on your reading comperhansion ;)
Couldn’t disagree more on the single chainring. I have two bikes, one with single, one double, and the double definitely performs way better on hilly terrain. The smaller jumps between gears makes a huge difference in being in the right gear and cadence all the time. In a single, you spend more time in no-man’s land between gears and that’s extremely unwise when every pedal stroke counts.
The inception of the TDF is built on marketing. Doesn't surprise me people continue to market stuff and people keep buying that stuff.
For the average person... We now have 1x 13 speed. Surely chains just don't last as long as that thinness and angles than 2x 10? Marginal gains...but pretty irrelevant if you're paying more more often just to ride as an average cyclist?
every day is a new day, we've seen time and time again riders who look unbeatable in the beginning of a grandie totally lose it towards the end. pogacar feels different sure, but i can't help but feel he well crack a bit towards the end while jonas will only get stronger
The only option for quality is 360p you might need to sort that out
It's fine now. It takes TH-cam a few minutes to process hd versions
You need to wait for TH-cam to process higher quality versions.
pogacar can’t even make gap of more than a minute to the lesser prepared jonas and no help and this “guy” with just 4 stage saying it’s pogis crown, such a clown. This gonna be a fun tdf.
I predict Pogi is going to gain time in the time trials.
I tend to agree! Maybe Remco can pull back 15-30 seconds but I am skeptical
Everyone is talking about Vinegar and his crash, how he is only going to get better. What all the Vinegar fannyboys forget is that Pog is still recovering from Covid, so he will only get better. I think Vinegar will find his lack of prep telling in the last week and a half.
Pog is up by 50 seconds now but in reality he is down by 10 minutes in week 3. Jonas has already won! Impressive riding by Jonas to have won the tour with a 50 second deficit. That’s what some people say at least 😂.
But I’m with you lol!
Seemed odd to me that Vingegaard started to loose time after the decent straightened out.
Not really. His legs were dead at the finish climb so when they got to 2nd section of descent when you need power to pedal he started to lose seconds because he had no power left...
@@fangru7294fair enough.
Roche won the giro tour world's 1987
The reason teams don't want the Yellow jersey too early isn't because of "Media" & "Press" responsibilities! It's simply because if your team leader is in Yellow your team is expected to protect it and lead the Peloton on the road the next day which obviously means more work on the front! Question! Do you guys actually know anything about pro cycling?
As well...
Vinegar didn't have the confidence to hit that downhill, which was all downhill to the finish line, which is why they couldn't catch Podge. Plenty of stages remain for Podge to be attacked by Vinegar... It's all to play )cycle, I guess) for...! 😁
Hey it is just the 4th day of 3 weeks...anyrhing could, Go Jonas....
~24‘45“ - sorry, that idea is a bad joke! Pogi less visible? 😆 😅😂 everyone of the other teams is watching him ALL THE TIME - no matter what jersey he is wearing. It’s about recovery time no doubt
Stronger team,jonas recovered from puncherd lung with restricted buildup and got exposed in the thin air..dont think it's all over and the great rivalry isn't done.
Pogi's focus after the tour is world championship... That's his main goal. With super strong Slovenian team and on favourable route. Vuelta is not on his mind.
Not on his mind until he wins the Tour and gets a massive check from the Vuelta organizers. That will for sure play a factor, can you imagine how much the viewership would go up with Pog in the vuelta going for the triple vs without him? Never forget about the economics of sport!
a) Never forget the importance of the Olympics and Championship.
b) Never forget that UAE has multiple riders with GC ambitions (they have that clearly written in the contract). Tadej winning all GC is not in the interest of UAE. That's economic part of the equation.
Chris looks like he's a salt of the earth type of guy
20:18 Shame on you Jimmy. Never been happier for someone to be proved wrong!
Pogi stays upright he wins, no question. Jonas is almost on his level but hasn't had any prep. Rog should be competitive but isn't. For me Remco is the only potential upsetter if he develops into the tour. The fact UAE can do this without super-domestiques like Mcnulty tells all you need to know. They are going to win.
The state sponsored Arab team UAE is of course the “strongest team” at the moment - as THEY’RE SPONSORED BY THE UAE ffs.
Stop making it sound like they’re doing something incredible when the matter of a fact is that they bought talent and whipped them all to work for 1 guy.
It’ll either be Visma or Red Bull in the upcoming years that’ll truly fight them in terms of top tier riders. Visma ain’t got the DS though, so it’ll probably be Red Bull.