How Helping Ukraine Deters Beijing: Inside the Politics of Political Signaling
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 ก.ค. 2024
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Although rarely ever at the forefront, part of the West's motivation to assist Ukraine is to deter the People's Republic of China from invading Taiwan. This video explores the logic of how this is happening. We begin with the direct and indirect military effects before transitioning to the political signals that aid to Ukraine sends. As a final note, we explore some data from an experiment on what would deter Chinese citizens from wanting to unify Taiwan militarily.
0:00 Help Ukraine, Deter China?
2:18 Indirect Benefits of Ukrainian Aid to Taiwan
7:48 Direct Benefits of the the Aid Bill to Taiwan
10:10 Political-Military Signals to China
11:55 Economic Signals
13:28 What Are the PRC's Beliefs?
16:01 Experiment on Public Opinion in China
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PrSM isn't a bad acronym, you can just pronounce it like "prism". Prism has a ring to it.
It sounds magical ✨️
By ring, do you mean an expanding ring of tungsten balls?
PRISM is SEXY thank you!
@@unoriginalname4321buttring
They call it the Prism missile... cuz it hits the FULL SPECTRUM~ (cue CSI Miami intro)
(I don't know what that would actually mean in military lingo, but it sounded good.)
I think the bigger news from that study at the end would be the fact that Chinese support for the invasion was still in the 60s and had gone up after a full year of the Ukraine war.
I think that tells you that whatever persuasiveness the extra information possessed, it was not as strong as the CCP's own propaganda ramp-up for possible war.
Although that being said, with any autocratic system, you CANNOT distinguish between genuine support, and people defaulting to the answer that they think the government wants to hear (which probably deserved its own caveat when discussing this kind of data...)
Yep, i don't know about chinese laws, but in Russia you WILL get in trouble for anti-war sentiments. So you better say "hail to emperor, let's go to war" than pay some fine or even go to prison in event that "question" was actually a trap.
@@1999Almaz Chinese netizens are free to talk shit about the Russian invasion. In fact, some of the most savage criticism I've read of Russia came from the Chinese internet. However, this was during the Kharkhiv offensive, where Russia put up a shameful display. The sentiment swung again after Ukraine's much hyped counter-offensive failed to deliver significant results.
One thing to keep in mind is the Chinese culture, and appearing strong is VERY important. Usually, the side that manages to do that will be the popular one.
@@gogudelagaze1585 That's not what i meant tho.
I doubt Chinese citizens allowed to say "i don't want our country to invade Taiwan"
@@1999Almaz Oh! I see. Yeah, that kind of speech probably breaks the "picking quarrels and making trouble" law.
@@gogudelagaze1585 Not really. But i would have been better to specify "you favor invasion or diplomatic means" for reunification.
I consider it likely the chinese people are actually more in favour of invasion than the leaders. leadership has used the carrot for a very long time, to achieve their objectives. And military expenditure in terms of gdp is actually down (SIPRI data). Strategically, now a nation strongly depending on trade, the did shift the focus away from the army. But there is little chance, anyone would actually try a full scale invasion. Having a huge paper tiger of a navy, is a mighty geopolitical tool, especially if it weaknesses are never exposed, as doesn't see actual combat. For every $ the chinese pump in their military, the geopolitical opposition put about 5-10$ into their militaries. They can keep that going, it will give them a significant long term economic advantage.
Not just as signaling, a weaker russia is a weaker china.
China might be discovering that all those weapons that Russia helped them build are crap.
Elaborate please
@@u2beuser714Russia now became a de facto colony of China, China gets the raw materials out and puts their industrial products in, if we could show the Russians that their current leader lost every inch of expansion in Ukraine, even loses Crimea, that would likely get the old silverbacks replaced, and if the new leaders in the Kremlin aren't fools, they'll return to the level of profitable trade with the EU and maybe even join the EU in the future. Looking forward to the answer of your question, for which I'll now get notified.
@@u2beuser714 they are likely to provide military aid to each other
A weeker Russia is a stronger China, in my opinion. China is lending money to Russia, if Russians cannot make repayments, it could trigger China paying themselves on the Cow....
Professor, I do know what SWIFT is, I do like glorified lecture and I am ever so grateful you have too much time on your hand. Please continue your wonderful geopolitical content. Thank you
Dittos like you I look forward to all of his posts, and I'm the average blue collar guy in the street. I'm also a 50's born Boomer and retired military. Even my spouse enjoys his lectures Lol 😆
@@VIKING-SON Wonderful! Also, I enjoy his wry sense of humor. That can send me into hic-up laughter at the drop of the hat!
PS: 1950 Boomer, spouse retired Lt. Commander… me, I'm just a geo-pol & History junkie!😁
@@Navigator2166 Roger that I'm retired US Army CWO 2 my spouse and I enjoy him. Like you I'm a geopolitical kind of person.
I got that way after living in Virginia Beach for 11 years. Met some really nice Navy people there. My brother was retired Navy and worked for DOD. Thanks for the reply Navy.
I’m just a semi-retired Brit Boomer. My generation seem to realise what we are playing with on this war (think late 1930s). Nobody else is bothered. To them, it’s just background noise. It’s not even registered on UK’s current general election campaign.
The Columbia class submarine at 8:47 is amazing. A submarine painted with an American flag, with a Statue of Liberty on top of it, and passing by 5 more Statue of Libertys in port is amazing!
The enemy would surrender due to the sheer amount of freedom radiating from it.
That's some C&Q: Red Alert type shit
Oh, they’re not statues. They’re giant robots
If all our submarines don't have a Statue of Liberty on top of them moving forward are we even any better than North Korea?
If that's not the future, I don't want it
"More symbols of America" AI obligingly spams statues of liberty
Professor like some others I enjoy your lectures. My spouse and I are a couple of retired 50's born boomers. Who look forward to your post. Keep up the great work you're doing with expanding our knowledge through your lectures.
Thank God that you have "Too much time on your hands" - I am truly thankful that you are willing to spend so much of it with us! Geoff Rohde
And now that the U.S has given the green light to Ukraine to use their weapons on Ruzzian territory, China is gonna get a hard first take on just how costly an invasion will be
China and Russia are not Iraq.
Russia already eliminated over 600,000 Ukrainian troops that the U.S.spent 8 years training.
All independent U S. Military experts agree that the U.S. military is in no condition to fight Russia or China.
Heck, according to former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Richard Shirreff, the ENTIRE 32-nation "NATO is not prepared for war with Russia."
You do know that China has 1.4 billion people upon which their military could draw from, right?
😂😂😂
Cope... just found this channel.
Are all you redditors here listening to this AI cope hahahahahaha
Losers
@@js70371Tiwan is independent
@@Nino-ye8ve Taiwan is part of China and always will be
Well, Good Sir, these "Glorified versions of university lectures produced by a PHD who evidently has way too much free time" are more informative than most lectures in many (if not most) of the universities wanting to promote some political agenda. Your work is very much appreciated.
This. So much this!
I love your video's mate, very informative!
@ 9:05 that steampunk submarine looks fantastic.... and just over a billion you say..... hmmmm (Imagines himself as Captain Nemo from 20,000 Leagues Beneath the Sea)
Fun fact, the 20,000 leagues was the distance traveled. 20k leagues is over 100,000km.
Apologies if you already knew this, I just think it's fun for anyone else reading the comments
@@BiggestCorvid Well I live in Ireland, its an Island, and yeah we are surrounded by the sea, its a fairly big thing for us. Even then when the tide isn't coming in, its coming down... so water, I'm unfortunately accustomed to... although what I find odd for an Island is the tiny number of deaths from drowning we get, you'd imagine it would be higher. But all this means, is I'd have plenty of places to park my Steampunk Nuclear Submarine!
I think its about 70k miles by the way... 20k leagues that is... 3.4 * 20k... although it is not a static SI measurement and changes depending on who you ask and what country they are from.
You are killing me William!😂 ”Peer review” will never bring quite the same thoughts as before. ”Glorifyed version of a lecture” as a description of your videos was also great. I have wondered how on earth you get time to do your regular job at the university. On the other hand, spreading an understanding of academia is important. Having close to 600’000 subscribers, with your type of content, is impressing! One can’t even come close that, counting students.
I thought the concept of helping Ukraine deterring China was well-known, but I guess there are denialists.
Not a loose connection at all. The more we help Ukraine the more we keep the Red Dragon and the Grizzley Bear tamed.
Really grateful of the USA helping out in Europe. Though us Europeans need to get our shit together when it comes to the military.
@@ToeShimmel Agreed, though I was as skeptical as the next guy before I really think we need a unified defense industry, or even military.
Russia winning in Ukraine deters the USA
@@hungrymusicwolfyet the interest of MIC, the demand for defense and the goal of the proxy war doesn't seem to coincide.
Most in global south view it as MIC provoke a proxy war to jack up demand for defense.
@@whensonzhou4174 Yeah, most people thought Russia wasn't going to invade, most people thought Covid wasn't going to get to their country, most people are very frequently wrong.
Stand on good principles and things will work out better than jumping from one conclusion to the next.
We need military to defend ourselves. We have proven we don't have it right now, so we build it.
If while doing so we find out this is a conspiracy we persecute the people doing it and destroy whatever means they used to achieve it. But that's for when we find the evidence and the means to convince a court.
Honey wake up, new William Spaniel video just dropped!
Hahahaha! That’s Perun cue❤, but William Spaniel is a close example ❤
Of course I clicked on the video immediately as it appeared on the banner 🎉🎉🎉
LOL, 'fer sure! Thx William, excellent explanation as usual, but IMHO you really out-did yourself today! 👍
@@rositasultana3958 yea william and perun both are channels when they drop a vid you need to watch then and there
Having a stupid Wifey can be advantages...
I'd think that air superiority is a prerequisite for an invasion of Taiwan, whether by sea or air. So air defense should be the top priority. Air defense is also important to protect the nation against the missile threat.
Nice
Nice
@@Gametheory101Nice
Nice
@@Gametheory101 wait the original channel name was gametheory101? maybe you'd be interested in changing your @ in the google settings
isgood
i just wanna say thank you for making university political science lectures so accessible. it's been a great help for me. n_n
9:04 We're getting into Warhammer 40K territory with the "more freedom" design. Apparently, AI thinks WH40K is "more freedom." Not concerning.
AVE IMPERATOR!
Good, because "concern" sounds suspiciously like treason...
Thanks for the work you do. You have a way of painting the whole picture to make it easier for us to use the information and remember what you say. You make this sound difficult and yet possible to understand if we wanted to study it as you are doing.
The only signal the USA is sending right now is "We take a long time to make any decision and it normally comes 2 years too late for the biggest benefit."
Like how Europeans took forever to make a decision on defense spending after Crimea?
Like how europeans are dragging their feet on chinese support and trade after the concentration camps were revealed?
Russia winning in Ukraine deters the USA
@@sparks1792Yeah basically. We just thought that noone would be stupid enough to actually go to war in XXI century, but we got blinded by logical thinking - or that not everyone acts logically like us.
No point rushing when you're hourly or gulping a fine wine.. It's a gift that keeps on giving.
Creative humor,thank you diligent soul
Thank you, William. Only time will tell how well your analysis will hold up, but it is entertaining in the meantime. Again, thank you.
Congrats Dr Spaniel, and thanks for all the public enlightenment work 🙂
Love your minilectures.
China be like:
"How dare you lock your doors and install shutters to your windows? You put the entire neighborhood in grave danger!"
Fantasic episode as usual, great work !
Its spot on.
Merci, ça faisait beaucoup de lignes !
Thank you for including sailor units
In case you're wondering: the "freedom" part in "freedom distances" stands for "freedom from science education" which, coincidentally, also caused the abbreviation of nautical miles with "nm".
People have been saying that US resolve on ukraine signals that US resolve will also be there for taiwan. But I think it is different: taiwan is so much more important then ukraine. Therefore any support ukraine gets will be multiplied in the case of taiwan. the taiwanese were smart, they played the long game and now TSMC is too important to the USA for the USA to possibly abandon them. I highly doubt there would be any delays like we've seen with ukraine.
You forget that the US signed a deal with Taiwan and Samsung to construct a semiconductor manufacturing plant in Texas to help alleviate strains on the global economy should something happen to the TSMC plants in Taiwan. A lot of Taiwanese voters were furious with Tsai Ing Wen when she signed the agreement which effectively reduces the US reliance on Taiwan.
Yea, I do T know why ppl not mentioning this more
As a dual Taiwanese American citizen, I have very conflicting interests. Work culture & wages in Taiwan suck. But quality of life and cost of living in America sucks. I make more money in America, but my money goes way farther in Taiwan. I need America to completely depend on Taiwanese chips because I can't afford to retire in America.
@@jeremyjackson7429 thats understandable, there’s codependency on both sides that i dont think is all too great, but when the other alternative is being ruled by CCP it’s a weird position to be in. I hope that after all this political tension recedes both countries could work out a better deal in some way, preferably without a war being declared in the first place.
"The thing that goes boom". Is that a technical term?
Fascinating as always.
4:50 Arrows (which are mostly lines) on Map!
5:23 Moar arrows (and therefore lines) on Map!
Also, I got to glimpse President Tsai Ing-wen when she stopped by the Embassy in Midtown back in March 2023.
That peer reviewer in the distance gave me a chuckle.
20:06 hahaha! Well you have become really good at making these videos interesting and entertaining.
Great video
I look forward to seeing the next lines on maps. Thanks William
The connection was always evident. Putin visited Xi during the 2022 winter olympic in Beijing, and right after the closing ceremony, started the war on Ukraine. At the end, the russian attack capability has to be destroyed entirely - this might make Xi to switch on the remaining working part of his brain.
Good reporting. Thank you. Strong democracy.
Good video, will recommend
I object slightly to your remarks at 3:38 because you make an unusually (for you) large leap in logic- if the PRC wants to skip the sea landing and do air landings they have to manage to *get* to Taiwan by air first, this is not only far from a given but also would emphasise entirely different production outputs for a war, namely aircraft and SAMs, with emphasis on missile quantities in particular. So the expected domain of combat should be much more air focused than ground. What you have essentially said in your remarks is that going with an air assault skips the entire 'getting there' phase, and if that were true with no caveats it would easily be the default. Of course it's *likely* you are still correct to a significant degree- I'd expect them to be able to land a lot more people a lot more quickly by air, emphasising artillery, but I would also expect *many* more losses in the process too, enough that it is worth talking about when or if we have hit the point where it is likely *too* many to be viable
Couldn't help but laugh out loud at all the Statues of Liberty around the sub pen and on the sub!
Very much hoping that after 4th July 2024 and our UK General Election you will need to update your pictures of the UK Prime Minister and others! I keep seeing Boris Johnson appearing which feels a very long time ago. Fab video as always.
I openly admit I laughed out loud at “Pier Review”. The jokes here are always right up my alley; a brand of humor my wife doesn’t appreciate nearly enough!
Amazing video presentation William! It helped me a lot to better understand the impact of the last American military help package! Before this video I would have bet my bottom Dollar, that the Chinese people will be more concerned about possible economic sanctions! Let me see where is the „thanks“ button!
those are some really high quality subs with ferriswheels and everything :D
I think that the "Columbia" from Bioshock Infinite may be leaking into your AI's depiction of the submarine :D
The connection is quite simple, credibility
You sound so much like Serpentza! Love his voice and your's! 😅💙
I don't have a degree in international relations or something, but maybe we should just build the big art deco submarine with the amusement park and tell -winny- uhm... Mr. Ping that he can have it, if he'll forgets about taiwan and stops all the other bad stuff. He even can drive his Sub to Putin and be like " `Sub? this could have be you, Vlad, but you had to invade Ukraine... tze tze tze"
Mr spaniel, excellent research and analysis. However, at 8:53 I'm pretty sure you made a mistake when you said $200 billion dollars is earmarked for the Virginia class submarine building. Maybe you meant 200 million?
That was possibly your funniest video yet. I kept laughing throughout it. Of course I might not have caught all of your jokes since I’m only an M.Ed. 😉😁 Keep up the great work. 👍🏼
Question: How much slack is in the U. S. economy today so that, if the weapons industry went full ahead, we could supply Ukraine, Taiwan, and the US with a superfluity of howitzer shells? How could the industry achieve that if our capacity is there?
We currently do not have the excess production to produce howitzer on that scale. I believe the military contractors are saying it’ll take 1 to 2 years to build the factories so that we can have that excess capacity, but they want assurances from the US government that they will buy what produced in those factories in one to two years once they’re complete before they’re willing to invest and build them now.
@@johnlynch1353 Based upon that explanation, then we don’t have the slack. I was thinking more along the lines of expanding production, not by building new plants, but by going to extra shifts in the existing plants as we would do if we were on an actual war footing.
I didn’t come to this question on my own. I recall Milton Friedman’s saying that the US’s success in WWII was a direct result of what he referred to as “slack” in the economy prior to that war which did not exist for us in the 1970s-80s.
@@cooterhead_jones Interesting question. The problem in Europe as I understand it, is the lack of cotton. They have enough for current production but not expansion.
The US get it from other sources, but I wonder if the US have enough for expansion?
@@cooterhead_jones Pretty much all factories are running 24/7 nowadays, anything else is unprofitable.
@@Nala15-Artist Scary
Hardly a loose connection.
William Spaniel is endlessly entertaining.
Especially his semi-monotone.
He should be required to do a daily video.
The thing about missile ranges provided by the defense industry is that those are the public numbers. The actual max effective range is classified & likely a larger window. However, that would also not stop development of a missile that can exceed the public range of 499km.
Also a fun thing to think about for anyone not in the know is that mil maps are in KM, which for ground based troops have grid squares being 1 KM. When you hear 499 KM you can think 499 grid squares.
Good video
Great, insightful video, William!
One nit: 8:50 I don't think a Virginia class sub costs $200 Billion. 😉
It's clear PrSM will go further than 499km
Agreed - ATACMS is one of the best acronyms EVAH! 😊
8:53 Is Lady Liberty the periscope on the sub?
Wait a minite.....not a single line in this episode????
I feel robbed....😢
😂😂😂
Keep up the good vids, I really enjoy them!!!
As for Chinese Legitimacy, economic basis for that may not be so much true as it used to be. As evidence see their Covid response strategies. During Covid the regime took actions that did drastic harm to their economy. I had a quick conversation with Wang Yu-Chi (long story, wife knows his wife, we both like PC historical wargames, somehow we always end up having dinner whenever I'm visiting in-laws), and he isn't so confident China is deterred by economic factors anymore. Usually his comments on Geo-Politics are super careful, but he was adamant about his belief that economics wasn't going to matter much anymore to China's invasion plans and intentions. And for once, arguing wouldn't get him to back down.
Wiliiam, there is *NO WAY* an air invasion works without troops securing a large region first; the *ONLY* chance the Chinese have is to blockade and starve out Taiwan (:: will be easy to break, especially as China is dependent upon US Navy-guaranteed shipping lanes for their own survival and there is no way around this as the Chinese cannot patrol these routes themselves). It would not be like Hostomel; it would be an utter slaughter. There's no physical way, shy of 100s of thousands of aircraft *all at once*, to get enough troops through the air to even start to secure one area
Drones saturating air defense maybe?
don't know what this the world need US navy to protect trade narrative comes from, sounds arrogant as hell... if anything, U.S. navy will be more effective at blokcade than protection, aka a potential threat to world trade, it's a strategy of deterence not defense.
They can't even safeguard redsea from the Houthi
Nice videos
Hello Dr. Spaniel,
I feel like this topic was rather obvious, considering how Russia has previously said about their relationship “being limitless” and the fact China is observing Western support for Ukraine as a basis for Western response for potential Taiwan invasion.
However, your drill down into the topic is as informative as usual. Thank you!
I hope politicians study your video's. Very-very interesting.
What is incredible is the contrast between sales to Taiwan and sales to Ukraine. Over decades. This needs explaining.
It occurs to me that there is an excellent test range for 1000km PrSM launches located just west of Russia.
SWIFT is an easy acronym
Something With International Funds Transfers
Very deep analysis ✌️💪
Prism is a dope acronym tho
He-hey, William used a Jersey Quarter for the cost benefit analysis bit, just like how it takes 136 quarters (and 1 dime) in New Jersey with NJ tax to pay for both of his books on the War in Ukraine, links are in his video description.
Very good point. 👍 But, you talk about costs and benefits for China. China wants Taiwan no matter what it costs.
But
They want it, but they want a guarantee that they can win. The Taiwan Strait crisis proved that China is incapable of taking Taiwan at that time.
Opening an invasion means that if they fail, they will not have a window to try again, as it will turn China to a pariah state and its immediate neighbors will stop dealing with them.
You're right.
Doubt, i bet they want monopoly on microelectronics market and that's not possible if Taiwan destroys all TSMC factories. All they would get (if invasion will be successful and that's a big IF) is island full of ruins
They also want the Amur region back. Actually, that's probably more important to them, as it has more tangible strategic benefit. But there not up for election every 4 years and can absolutely afford to play the long game. Russia is not their friend. Temporary ally, but more like a sacrificial pawn.
But right now, they benefit from the war. They are not giving aid to Russia. The sell at high price and buy resources at low price.
8:53 Did you mean 200million or 200billion? Because if it's the latter, that will be one hell of a submarine
Prigo told the truth about the false justifications for the invasion stay strong Ukraine!!!😊
Interesting :)
Commenting for engagement cause I love your work but can't afford the book🇰🇿
As an Australian, this is the key reason why I'm following all that is happening in Ukraine....because we want to deter China.
I thought the Churchill saying went:"odredireidodradidei"
9:08 That's not a ferris wheel, its a F R E E D O M wheel.
Oh, no lines on maps today 😢 but it doesn’t mean that I didn’t watch it twice in a row ❤
Always lines. Always a choosing and a setting aside. If the lines aren’t there, the lines are there.
prSM is a perfectly fine acronym. its just prism rather than attack'em so it might be less of a pun but Prism is a cool weapon name.
But time well spent, from your viewers' perspectives
Spaniel!!!!
Hello Mate
I still think America's soft power ( trade ) will work best but the one child policy will denture the Chinese from attacking and losing valued children.
They haven't had a one child policy for a very long time
@@prlostinshadows How old are the military men ?
You mentioned Abrahms, can those actually be used effectively in Taiwan? I thought I remembered something about those being too heavy and wide for their terrain and bridges.
👋👋👋Wonderful
You didn’t ask about what SWIFT does, you asked about how it works. I know what it does but i responded ’no’ to your survey because I have no idea how exactly they make the international transfers, not because I don’t know that the transfers are made.
They tested PrSM from Vandenburg out over the the Pacific in a maximum range test and they claim it went 499km then 'lost communication'
The caption should be How Helping western military industrial complex Deters Beijing.
@6:11, that looks like a giant pencil.
Hehe. Even more freedom on the sub. Well done.
You can not get insurance in a war zone, for cargo ships. Without imports of oil, coal, food, feralizer, ect. Chania is done for. Without exports it loses the need for 1/2 the workforce and runs out of $$$$ fast.
Thanks for your great videos. 🇦🇺👴🏻
39% of people admitted they don't know what swift does and 60% quickly googled it before answering the poll