Inside Russia's Hidden Economic Crisis: Inflation, Oil Export Bans, and the Faltering Ruble
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Over the past few months, Russia has quietly had quietly battled another economic crisis at home. Inflation is on the rise, and the Kremlin had to institute an oil export ban to keep the things from spiraling too far out of control. Today, we look at the causes of the problem, what Russia has done to overcome the issues, and what it means for the broader war effort.
0:00 What's Going on with Russia's Economy?
1:58 Russia's Oil Ban: The Basics
7:10 Weakness in the Ruble
14:39 Russia's Inflation Problem
19:25 Are Russia's Inflation Reports Accurate?
21:38 How Russia Is Trying to Halt Inflation
26:12 Why the Oil Ban Was Necessary
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"In Truth, all of Macroeconomics is Black Magic, and no one is ever really sure about what is actually happening" as someone with 10 years of experience & a masters degree in Macroeconomics, I want this engraved on my headstone.
That would be a rather perplexing headstone 🪦… but then again, It would at least prove a point
As a holder of a technical master's degree, I can attest that the biggest lesson of such a degree is to make you aware of how much you don't know.
The epitaph is credible.
Your headstone will say "when someone figures out macroeconomics, please dig me up and let me know"
Macroeconomics is closest to Psychohistory. You cant really predict individual events but can predict general trends as the variables cancel out. Hari Seldon approves of your headstone
Oh, they know what is happening: It's PR bullshit to trick the masses to exploit them. That's the whole point of it.
Nothing new.
Inflation, bank collapse, severe drought in the agricultural belt, recession, food shortages, diesel fuel and heating oil shortages, baby formula shortages, available automobile shortages and prices, the price of living place.
It has never been simpler to grasp how to expand your wealth than it is right now, thanks to the availability of competent portfolio advisors that can help you experience and learn about a market with a wide range of assets. I think it's impossible to predict how changing dollar values will affect assets.
Yes, I have been in touch with a CFP ever since the outbreak. Today, investing in hot stocks is quite easy; the difficult part is deciding when to buy and sell. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my adviser chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?
The advisor that guides me is Sonya lee Mitchell, most likely the internet is where to find her basic info, just search her name. She's established.
thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
"In contrast, you have $4bn in your book budget account-" has got to be one of your best book plugs so far; no AI could ever write with such big-brain wit. Keep up the great work, Prof. Spaniel!
Without reading this comment I wouldn't have noticed him being a professor - though tbh I should've guessed with him advertising his book after each video as at least half of my professors do that too
Wheat seems to have an extremely narrow harvest window - it's not just "We need to get it sometime before winter", it's "It wasn't dry enough on Monday, but if we're not done before the rain on Saturday we'll suffer so much loss from lodging and fungus that it bankrupts us". The field needs to act as a carefully calibrated dehydrator before it goes into the silo. Staggered planting and per-field measurement of moisture levels help, but before the threshing machines and then combine harvester was invented wheat-growing regions required a standing army of hundreds of ag workers with hand tools per square kilometer ready to work furiously long hours on every farm in the area for a few slim weeks.
And then you also have to worry about dragons burninating the fields and the peasants. You bastard.
I know this too. By watching Clarkson's Farm. 😂😂😂
Ahh, yes! The Good old Days!
Didn't expect to learn about grain harvesting today. Pleasant surprise.
I would add that freeze on local prices of oil/gas products (demand rises globally so in order to not price out local consumers govt makes some manipulations like limits and bans on export) happens every year since Putin came to power.
Sanctions don't mean they can't get stuff from other countries. It means they have to pay multitudes more for them than before.
And that the companies risk paying large fines if they accidentally violate the sanctions, meaning that many won’t bother trying at all.
Честно говоря , это и правда и не правда . Дело в том что некоторые товары народного потребления (компьютеры , телевизоры , еда , одежда , бытовая химия и прочее ) стали даже дешевле из-за того что с них убрали пошлины и ввозить из стали массово . А другие товары , зачастую двойного назначения , действительно стало покупать дороже , например американские чипы , двигатели и взрыватели . Немецкие станки и прочее .
William, to pick a nit, I don't think the issue with failure to harvest a wheat crop promptly when it is ready to be harvested is that, as you said, "it dies." The plants actually die in in the late summer. The grain seeds then lose enough moisture that they are in the proper condition to be harvested and stored. If the wheat is not harvested before the snow falls the stems of the plants will fold over. It is also very difficult and can become impossible to harvest wheat when it is covered with snow. Also, grain in the field will eventually start absorbing moisture and will mold when the weather warms.🤓 Other than this, thanks for another awesome lecture professor Spaniel !
When the weat is ripe, you have just a few weeks to harvest. If you miss that window, you cannot harvest at all. I mean you could try, but that is animal food, at best. It will get dark and molds, bacteria and other pests will have a huge party over the fields.
You are exactly right. Of course we know the wheat dries in summer on the stem ,but too much rainfall is also a problem.
Regarding the wheat nits, it is clear (to me, at least) that Spaniel has taken a page from the way Sabine does science videos in an attempt (quite successful, I think) to make accessible to the public an otherwise indigestible cocktail of partial differential calculus, the dismal science, a horrific war, and soulless autocracy -- with a sprinkling of bone-dry humor (e.g., having prices range from a low of zero up to "Taylor Swift tickets.") Clearly there are plenty of similar nits; however, as I see it the point is not so much the mechanical details of computing first or second partial derivatives or wheat harvest dates, but rather it is the combination of visuals and narrative (delivered, by the way, in a decreasing monotone as he does more episodes) to illustrate tangled linkages across broad and complex topics in a memorable manner. Very useful.
In conclusion, although I was a few Rubles short of 4B, I did buy his book and found it an interesting approach ("lines on maps") to understanding how rational actors might pursue politics by other means and decide to start, continue or seek to end fighting a war.
@@timothyallen6411 Understood, but how hard would it have been to say "if not harvested within a certain window, the wheat 'molds or rots'...'" instead of "dies"?
@@RichardTaylor1630 I would have been content (and not noticed any issue) if Dr. Spaniel had said that.
FYI, I'm a serious fan, I've read his book on Game Theory and been following this TH-cam channel for 2+ years.
Based on reports from people like Nikki Proshin and others when comparing grocery prices between March 2022 and March 2023, food inflation rates are running from 30-50%.
I've heard russians comment about inflation too, how it's been bad for them, one of them was saving up dollars even (was on twitch and my russian isn't that great so could be wrong)
All of these things are severely location dependent. In general - Russia is a very isolationist nation. The bank system is designed around the event that the global exchange pushes us away, not *just* incase it happens. The current recession isn't a fraction as bad as western media portrays it. That isn't to say things are not deteriorating, they are, slowly: but the primary victims are those who live far away from metropolis and cities.
Food in Russia is still cheaper than America, and so is petrol. I paid 218 roubles for 4 liters the other day. The Americans are painting this catastrophic picture of our nation collapsing meanwhile their own government who does not give a damn about them is sending billions to foriegn conflicts that do not have the interests of the average worker in mind, only military investors. It is a very sad situation and world that we live in.
@@moonashainflation is happening everywhere and Russias level of inflation is lower than the UK. Grocery stores are stocked and food is accesible and cheap since Russia produces its own food. Prices have increased for things that need "parallel imports" and can take a while to deliver (like electronics and parts for some cars) but its not like you cant get them or that they are exorbitantly expensive lol. I speak fluent Russian and am a Ukrainian living in Russia
@@handle1603 Same can be said about American healthcare. What's your point?
@@AndRei-yc3tiBS.
Inflation in the UK is 3%.
In ruSSia, the stated rate is 7%. However that's largely propaganda, most economists agree their real rate is north of 20%.
Finally, someone explained "year on year" and how to calculate inflation in a way that I could understand, and ironically, it needed to come from a specialist in war.
Specialist on war? That is every troll from Kremlin and paid by Putino that never work in his life. :D
Were your facilities so blunted that your perception of inflation had been frozen in the Siberian tundra?
@@philipb2134 what
@@happyjohn1656 haven't you been aware that the inflation rate has come down sharply? It's down by more than half since the 9% peak?
@@philipb2134 yes okay
I don't think that India would be badly affected by a Russian refined products ban (Russia banned refined oil produce export, not crude exports). India imported lots of crude but very little refined. They import Russian crude, refine it, and resell the refined products, effectively competing with Russia's refined products.
Russia's refined products are for Russia. What the heck makes you think they're trying to compete with India? India is their middleman to sell their oil to Europe.
@@wolfswinkel8906 You misread my post, or maybe I was not clear. I never said that Russia wants to compete with India. India is opportunistically competing with Russia and using Russia's own crude to do it. India is exporting refined oil products in a way that it never could before it started importing all of that cheap Russian crude.
@@patwilson2546 you can't talk about "competition" with Russia if Russia is not in the EU market at all. India is exploiting the weakness of the EU by violating the sanctions (remember when the West tried to pressure India to comply with the sanctions) and still selling to the EU at the same time. Both Russia and India make money off sales of petroleum to Europe, while Russia continues to sell to other markets at the same time. That's not "opportunistically competing with Russia", that's collusion between both.
@@wolfswinkel8906 " India is exploiting the weakness of the EU". That is a bizarre and interesting take. I'll leave you to it. You have earned your potato for the day.
@@wolfswinkel8906you know it’s not exploitation when everyone knows it. Eu could have banned that oil long times ago if they want to ban it. Plus most of the Russian oil is used for domestic market not export. Don’t worry soon South American oil will replace Russian oil.
Fun thing about crude oil. A reduction in refinement doesn't just mean a reduction in gasoline and diesel fuel. It also means a significant reduction in distillates such as engine oil and hydraulic fluid. It seems probable that Russians may be dealing with a cold winter due to a reduction in heating oil supply. It also seems probable that the reduction in oil and hydraulic fluids will have unintended side effects in the war and outside of it. It may be a rough winter for the Russians and even worse for the MoD.
Putin will do everything to avoid that. He really fears civil unrest.
I wouldn't call a rough winter for the MoD "worse"
After Russia kinzhals a few Ukrainian power facilities and then Ukraine reciprocates with cigarette parties at some refineries, the whole lubricants supply chain will slide out the window.
What are you smoking, gentlemen? The video is a dog's nonsense... I haven't seen such nonsense for a long time.
A fair bet this has not been ignored.
Stalling a large machine takes time and effort. While it was initially easy for Russia to hide the effects of sanctions, it has only added to the depth of the hole they're falling in to. Fun fact about big engines is that the bigger the engine, the bigger the starter it need to start rolling again.
yes yes)) Russia is about to fall apart)) Sanctions have a long-term effect, their results will only be in a year or two) They wrote this 2 years ago) And Russia still lives as before the sanctions and increases its standard of living to the European average.
@@gunterodim1535 Sure, Ivan. The exchange rate of the ruble vs dollar and other currencies says otherwise.
@@gunterodim1535 How much does sitting in a Russian troll farm pay per day, I wonder? And do you take your pay in rubbles, or do you prefer dollars?
Exactly 💯
@@gunterodim1535how much potatoe cost now and 3 years ago?
One thing to clear up - Russia did not do an “oil export ban”. Rather, they temporarily banned export of REFINED oil products like gasoline and diesel.
the moment you said macroeconomic implications, youtube started a commercial😂
You call it black magic, but this is one of the most clear explanations on how an economy functions I’ve seen on TH-cam, excellent presentation
PUTIN IS A DICTATOR ! TRUMPSTER IS A WANNA BE !
agree
True numbers are being reflected in the cost of living
A loaf of bread, a bag of potatoes, a bucket of apples, a Kwatt electricity
Perun discussed some of this before but given the complexity of the topic, its always nice to go over it again.
Elvira Nabiullina is quite possibly the only major Russian public official that's turned out to really know what they're doing. Nothing she's done is shocking or surprising per se, but she's mostly made the right moves, at the right times and played a very weak hand well. It may not be a winnable scenario in the ling term - I hope not at least - but she bought the Kremlin time it wouldn't otherwise have.
Perhaps it's because bank officials aren't really seen as a threat to Putin's power if they are too competent at their job. They only threaten him when incompetent because all the blame (for good or bad things) lies on Putin's shoulders in the eyes of the public
I kind of hate the fact she is so much more competent than the rest of Russia's political class and even more competent than most of her peers in developed nation. In a just world, she probably should hold Putin's job.
Joke. That woman would probably surrender to the U.S. to have the Russian constitution rewritten like they did to Japan. It takes a man to run a country like Russia. Maybe in a satellite western country like Estonia; where the leader can't really do anything domestically because of all the global treaties they're in; and they'll always be guarded by the U.S.: then you can have a girl. But in Russia where the leadership of the leader actually determines the direction of the country; instead of hidden bureaucratic forces; you'll need a man.
That's also another uncomfortable fact for feminists because we never see any female dictators. We see tons of female "presidents" but these are always in countries where they again have little power and are figureheads. In important countries that actually have to fight for their survival and can't just cling to some higher power(like the U.S.) we never see any female leaders. When it's actually consequential; they never show up. Weird@@epronovost6539
@@epronovost6539Yeah competent people never seem to be in the places they are needed most.
“Macroeconomics puts people to sleep” me with an economics degree :O
You don't complain about his outdated monetarist views on inflation?
And he was right. Rather than go hungry because you can't find a job, you sleep ;)
@@matfax Oh absolutely, the right wing ideas around supply side economics and the subsidy machine as a form of governance are silly. Demand side economics recognizes the reality of a consumer economy
@@tuqe It's funny because in Europe, this basically has become the new justification for the same useless inflation mechanism. Instead of monetary supply, we're now trying to "calm the markets" by setting the right "expectations". Which is supposed to become sort of a self fulfilling inflation mechanism. It only works as long as people keep believing in the false myth that key interest rates were important. Without any ground truth (or barely any), it still roughly works because of the psychological effect of prevalent monetarist views. All that, of course, at the cost of destroying the economy that relies on cheap money for investments, which might eventually lead to even greater inflation because people have less income, which lowers demand. Key interest rates are a slippery slope.
@@matfax Its almost like government can direct spending through the taxation of abnormal profit makers (usually monopolising) and direct that money to real infrastructure (built with wages that, through progressive taxation immediately fund future works (Fiscal Multiplier)).
Or heck even yknow, borrow on the assumption that highly directed investment will grow an economy over the record low interest rates weve had over the last decade and have the bond markets fund an economic miracle.
But no lets make it cheaper to produce things through massive handouts or hand waving (even though through labour right inequalities we can never compete on price) with the hope that it will just be fixed.
Fuck I hate right wing economics
As a life long D&D gamer...when you said dice weren't for sale in Russia, it took me far longer than it should have to realize that was a rhetorical example...and was very sad... Because this is a "heart-warming" topic to begin with!
Excellent as always; some of the deepest and most comprehensive analyses I'm able to find anywhere.
B S
Russia has been suffering from deflationary as well as inflationary pressure. At times, demand fell so drastically from Russian consumers that deflation occurred, This was because many consumers were paying only for bare necessities and was purchasing very few "discretionary" items, Deflation resulted, at least for a while.
Yeah, it's honestly amusing, but it literally works like climate change. You get global warming, but you also get extremely low temperatures in times and places and also other kinds of extreme weather,like winds and tornadoes. A system thrown out of balance behaves very randomly.
@@frankfkling304- he explained it in the video
@@frankfkling304The ruble has not bounced back, 1 ruble equals 0.011 American dollars. Before Russia invaded Crimea it was around 0.031 USD, representing a lose of two thirds of it’s value!!
The Ruble/Russia is in trouble because of Putin!!
@@EverythingCameFromNothing Turkish Lira has surely lost way more of its value during the same time, an it's not like they even annexed anything.
@@ilyakasnacheev what does the turkish lira have to do with anything?
This is whataboutism at it’s finest
Google says the lira collapse is due to a combination of a sizeable budget hole, an inflation problem and thanks to a couple of years of highly questionable policies, a puny pile of FX reserves…. Sounds a lot like Russia to me 🤷♂️
Shame on Russia
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
16:22 That's not at all how exponentiation works. It isn't linear. Say the monthly inflation rate is 1%. That means every month, the price of a good will be 1% higher, or 1.01 times as high, as it was the month before. After 12 months, the price will be 1.01^12 ≈ 1.127 times as high, that is 12.7% higher. You need 12.7% more money to buy the same good as you did at the start of the year. This is close to, but crucially isn't 12%.
The video is a great summary. A lot of people don't understand percentages in the context of inflation.
B S
I am intrigued William why you have not included the work of Johns Hopkins Professor Steve Hanke in your discussion on inflation? He created the Hanke inflation dashboard and stated back in August that the real rate of inflation was around 60% in real terms. Considering the excellent work that Johns Hopkins did on monitoring the COVID-19 out brake I for one would consider his work more than credible and worth including at a future date. Other than that I found the presentation excellent Thank you so much.
".....work that Johns Hopkins did on monitoring the COVID-19 OUTBREAK...." Automobiles have brakes, except when they are broken.
For anyone reading this, if you think John's Hopkins did good work, you should immediately be suspicious of Steve Hanke, who was and is a vocal covid denier, and has repeatedly been pro-Russia and anti-sanctions during the war in Ukraine. Any good JHU did while tracking the pandemic was IN SPITE of Hanke, not because of it, and he had to be censured for spreading misinformation about Vietnam's covid response because it didn't fit his narrative.
Sanctions are a creeping form of political enforcement. They also don’t run true to course all the time, with the sanctioned national pushing back with workarounds and back doors etc. But overall, given the determination and economic superiority of the Western coalition, Russia will suffer considerably, over time. They’ll face two problems, popular discontent (which they can probably shrug off to some extent) and diminishing ability to support their military aims, which may not be so easy.
I am wondering if the rf will morf into something resembling more to north korea or iran? It will depend on how long putler is alive.
@@mryoubenPutin doesn’t have enough power to become a next North Korea or China. Not at the moment anyway.
Probably closer to Cuba on much larger scale. Making do with what they have available@@mryouben
Sanctions are overrated, especially when we're talking about superpowers like Russia and China with considerable international trade relations with multiple continents. It's arrogant delusion that makes people think that cutting others off will make them "suffer", as if the other 6 billion people on the planet don't exist. Sure, there are arguments to be made about losing access to certain markets, but other smaller economies with untapped potential are wildcards that no one can possibly predict the magnitude of trade benefits they offer.
@@wolfswinkel8906no offense, but if these so called "untapped markets" were really worth a damn, they would already be clogged by western and chinese companies. Truth is, being sanctioned by the larger part of the world economy means you will be dealing in scraps.
Thank you 💛 so much for your excellent work! Your explanations are so valuable for understanding what is happening in the world and especially the wars. I prefer to stick with Ukraine, rather than Israel. I refuse to get sidetracked. I will stand with Ukraine every day and night. Hoping that peace will come. Thank you again Sir, i enjoyed your excellent video.
Israel is one of world's strongest militaries backed by one of world's most productive economies. In spite of mistakes that have been obviously made, it can very much fend for itself, it doesn't really need our worry.
As a ukrainian, it is a pleasant thing to read words of support from a stranger on the internet after so much time since the invasion broke out, thank you for that. The peace is not coming anytime soon though, not in a nearest couple of years.
@@olgierdvoneverec Not to give you too much false hope, and not something you can count on, but things tend to be impossible to predict. There is a possibility that Russia starts crumbling from the inside, and then it can go awfully quick. We don't know where the limit is, but there is an inherent limit to how many people can be meatcubed before it's enough. A key point is Putin's re-election early next year, it might go "smoothly", it might very well not.
It sure would help if Europe and USA were more proactive than reactive with their supplies... huge mistakes were made this and last year by undersupplying Ukraine - this isn't gonna be any cheaper for them in the long run either, there isn't even a tangible reason for all this slow shuffling. Other than bureaucrats' standard instinct to do as little as possible, just so they aren't taking any excessive blame one way or another.
I stand with Russia ; their cause is just f head
Macroeconomics is actually pretty good at predicting what will happen; it’s just not very good at predicting when. Therein lies the rub. 😂
Oil sellers in Russia didn't prefer to export rather than sell to the domestic market solely due to difference in the currencies' purchasing powers. There is a domestic price cap in place, has been for years! Therefore, when the cap didn't change even though the global prices increased, sellers decided to sell abroad for greater prices and thus greater profits.
16:18 The yearly to monthly inflation calculation is wrong. The monthly inflation is the 12th root of the yearly inflation, because each month it's inflation upon the inflation of the previous months.
1.035^(1÷12) ≈ 1.00287 i.e. 0.29 %
Really appreciate the education -- eyes glazed over a few times -- but such a critical area to follow! Thank you for taking the time to explain in simple terms for those of us who need it...
Basically, the takeaway is that the Russian economy is suffering massively and the government is running out of options to postpone the negative effects on the population
No tourists is a negative for their great museum?
@@Taletad Food is still cheaper than it is in America, and so is housing, and so on. I pay roughly 2USD equivalent (218R) for 4 liters of gasoline. Americans are critiquing our situation while their own is vastly worse and crumbling right before their very eyes. But all's ends well when military investors get their cut of the pie at the end of the day, at least as far as Israel and Ukraine investors are concerned.
@@atomic_bomba americans earn 10 times more than the average russian. If your groceries are only half price compared to americans you’re still poorer
Edit : the mean salary in russia (50% russians earn more, 50% earn less) was $500 per month in 2021. In the US at the same time it was $4700 dollars, so 9.4 times more
In fact, if you account for purchasing power, Russia is still poorer than the US, Canada and all the EU countries except for Bulgaria who is very close
(Google : "gdp per capita ppp europe", ppp = purchasing power parity)
@@atomic_bomba
Average salary in Russia. 1,240,000 Rubles (RUB) or USD 14,771 (according to the exchange rate in June 2023).
Average Salary in the US $53,490 per year
Not really comparable. The average US citizen earns many times more $. Way beyond small price differences in food and gas.
You dont get many US citizens moving to Russia to have a higher standard of living! LOL
After all, no matter what is your view on the whole situation in general, you gotta agree that brand new 100 ruble banknote design looks beautiful
It should have been a coin, not a banknote.
I wouldn't use it to wipe my arse. I want nothing from that terrorist state anywhere near me.
Suggest to also refer to the non-convertibility problem of huge parts of the Russian oil and gas exports to their „new“ customers.
E.g. all exports to India were paid in Indian Rupies in India.
Due to the currency control of Indian Rupias, Russia can‘t convert these funds, hence not make any practicable use of it, but only re invest the money within India. So in their books Russia may have created huge export income - just in reality a big part is sunk money, useless for Russia intentions
I remember this from Joe Blog, I think. I’m just gonna add that, although the Indian govt authorized Indian companies (banks?) to accept rubles, none of them did. So much for BRICS unity.
Surely there is a load of Indian crap they can buy with it like cars
@@advancetotabletop5328 Those banks probably want to be able to transfer funds to western banks and have access to the western financial markets instead of losing all that just to support a rogue state waging war.
@@advancetotabletop5328um, there was any BRICS unity at all? In comparison, IMF provided much more financial help all around the world.
Putin has made a brilliant move tested how deep the USA pocket is. Now the world knows that the USA can only afford one war only.
Love the analysis, keep these videos coming!
the segway into the book plug has become like a little treat at the end of the video :D
The people at the Russian equivalent of 4chan, dvach, are indeed complaining about egg prices. Would be interesting to see how their CPI is actually moving.
I have a bachelors degree in economics. They never taught me that there was any rule that high interest rates eventually leads to people taking their money out of the bank to spend it on goods. I always thought that perpetually high interest rates = perpetually high savings rates, because it means a higher opportunity cost for consumption than if interest rates were low. Edit: Also, how does Russia solve the arbitrage problem? i.e. Armenia and the other countries where the ban doesn't apply to sell to the rest of the world, so the money goes to Armenians and other people in the rest of the former soviet union instead of to Russians?
The problem with academics is they see the world as it "should be" rather than how it is. This is how you have a large cadre of academics that think communism is practical. The issue of high inflation leading to people hoarding tradable goods is both well established and understood.
Think of it in the context of you as a person saving and buying only the bare essentials. If your savings grew faster than inflation, would you buy birthday presents? In the case of Russia, if the savings gave you the chance to go somewhere safer, would you? If relatives were at the fromt line, would you buy them things the military hadn't supplied?
P.S. Also, if you distrust government claims, because reports from friends in business or at the front are different from the news...
I think we are talking about small investors who, with high interest rates, tend to save until they have saved enough for a car or a 60% house. They save up money to spend it on consumer goods later on.
that bachelors aint worth anything, if you actually belive this nonsense :) so either you are lying about that education of yours, or idk. you are slow in the head or somthing :)
Putin has made a brilliant move tested how deep the USA pocket is. Now the world knows that the USA can only afford one war only
Thanks for the interesting video.
The lack of a high resolution image spells disaster for Russia
Windows 95
your content is so good i watch it with my parents when i visit weekly
Perun made a comment about the relative attention of things in the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine: the bigger things explode, the more attention of gets.
Economic war is just too boring to cover. Better to just trust Russian numbers with no amount of verification, like WTO did, i guess.
Great content thank you
Thanks. I understand a bit more about inflation. The graphics did help.
I can not understand everything right away. But I watched this video two times and it starts to make more sense. Impressed by your informative videos
Great video William, a very insightful look at the growing dilemmas in the Russian economy, would be appreciated if you could ke a close watch on this as seems likely that those stresses are going to become very obvious in the next 6 months…
Ukraine lost.. the West has already ditched them
@@steephanroy8461
How are food prices Ivan?
@@Conservator. Quite normal cheap infact..
How's your Medicare and flat earther education.. oh right ur elites stole them and added more zeros to their corporate account books.. still living in a house?
@@steephanroy8461what are you going to vote for Stephan?
@@thinkingonesec we don't have sleepy joe or a blond idiot here for that circus..
Its not as glamourus as yours but Putin was elected to power.. Russians elecct the puppet master to power
But for u.. no matter who u vote for.. all of them will be the puppets of oligarchs...
Before the war intrest rates in Ruzzia was 4% but now its 15% just imagine how much loans payments jumped...
Russia and Russians hardly have any debt.
Russian debt is 25% of GDP. One of the lowest in the world.
2023 shows almost 4% growth.
@@henrik4438 XD nice propaganda...
@@kamil_supabase_enjoyer numbers are from IMF and national statistic agencies.
Besides - Russians are used to high interest rates. They come in handy for savings. Come visit 🇷🇺
It's nice, friendly and clean. If you hold for example an EU passport you can apply for VISA online 🛂
The EU has started to buy more fertilizer and grain from Russia because of oil shortages.
It is not profitable to produce fertilizer in Germany anymore.
So I think that it is not horrible for that ban to happen.
War is an incredible waste of human lives and resources.
why ban it totally only to reinstate it? Why not limit exports by less than the current 50% all year round. Wouldn't that reduce the need for a damper payment? since internal prices would remain low(?)
The main problem is probably corruption. It's easier to find ways around a 50% ban (numbers are so easy to modify...) than it is to circumvent a total ban.
I like your economic analysis. Please repeat. Thank you
"..Rouble to rubble.." 😂
Touché!
I seriously didn't care about geopolitics or economics in any real way before finding this channel. Glad I did, I've learned a lot, and it has made me very interested in it.
I'm the exact same way, its become a bit of a hobby of mine since I found this channel
Sick information my dude
russias "low inflation" is also because they started with a lot of shrinkflation which they don't take into account as for example. You now buy 0,9L of gasoline instead of 1,0 L. So a 10% increase but their data would show no change. russian youtuber show 40-200% increases of most stuff.
Wow fantastic video !!
Are there good historical examples of wage-price spirals during wartime that might give us an idea of what could trigger it here? (Not sure exactly how to word that but I hope the question makes sense)
The fact that we get free videos on TH-cam by William Spaniel is truly a gift. 👏👏👏
Well done William 👍
Loved this ❤
Those oil prices though. For real
Thanks for the video. I appreciate your witty take on issues.
I love it how you warn the viwers. 'This might be borking'
I didn't find this boring at all.
Ur pretty
bork bork
great info again
This is among your best productions and a highly recommendable explanation of the western goal of crippling the Russian economy as a way of crippling the Russian war effort. Bravo!!!
This is a brilliantly explained analysis. Thank you!
not at all. this is fiction :) and that you belive it, just shows how little you actually know about economics :'D
@mortenvikene228 Could you elaborate, please? Which parts did you disagree with and why?
@@markb8468 well whats the point, if you dont understand how russia's economy is doing today, then ill need to teach you basic world economics first, and i got the feeling you dont want to understand, necause all you want to hear, is "russia bad, russia loosing, ukraine good, and so on.. :) it would be like explaining the law of thermal dynamics to a deaf dumb and blind piglet :'D
@@mortenvikene228 maybe you could point me to some sources then?
@@markb8468 imf is a good start, global gdp, global trade, the fct that eu and usa inflation is critacally high, use google
I do like your analyses.
The Yeltsin-Gagarin scale is brilliant! ROFL
Outstanding visuals, excellent narration and clear explanations. A+++
Excellent discussion of core macroeconomic concepts. Thank you.
The commentary could apply to all countries
Billy for an Aussie, you are very intelligent. Well done again. Keep pushing the Rubble crash and it will be self fulfilling, ending this war in 10 months. 150 Rubbles to the USD is the crash dummy wall.
Not a bright one here at all. Probably intoxicated 😂
I am. You got me engaged and excited when you started talking about second derivatives.
Mr Dore God Bless you, you are on the spot talking about Ukraine, thanks very much💖
Lies
thanks for your video. new subscriber, btw.
Thank you for consistently putting out such insightful videos. And thank you for continuing to focus on the Russia/Ukraine conflict in addition to the Israel/Palestine crisis in Gaza. Obviously, there has been a lot of propaganda floating around about why these conflicts started and what the goals of the various parties are. I really appreciate the methodology in your videos of investigating the various strategies and economic factors to make it clear what is likely and what is not knowable. It helps me to understand what is happening and why, which definitely influences my attitude towards various political figures based on whatever statements I can find about their international stances. For whatever it's worth, I think you are contributing a lot of high value content to the public and I recommend everyone I know to watch your videos when these topics come up. You rock.
War is horrible. Wish we could all get along.
He should do a video on the military industrial complex and the constant need for a conflict/enemy?
This is not less propaganda 😉
You know as Jeffrey Sachs says US are responsible for what's going on in Ukraine, he said he knows that obama gave green light to start working on getting control over Ukraine already in 2008,
He said he was shocked.
He knew that responsible politicians in Washington obviously never forget what Kennedy once said.
The only way US could get control over Russia's recourses was to sacrifice Ukraine for the job 😢
As Jeffrey Sachs it's all about world domination for responsible politicians in Washington,
And China support Russia economic with everything they need anyway.
Because China know if biden ever managed to get what he said, biden said he wanted to weakening Russia and have a regime change in Russia.
The world know it, they didn't like it.
That's why BRICS expanded rapidly past one and a half year.
And China know, that themselves would loose if the US managed to weakening Russia.
So China and Russia are closer together than they ever been.
Saudi Arabia also supports Russia, so economic have Russia no problem with.
I suppose people know that Saudi Arabia turned their back to US and dollar!?
Most of the middle east countries choose BRICS alliance.
That's why US support Israel with everything, biden said he wanted to normalize the middle east.
Heard harmless with normalize the middle east.
But it's not, responsible politicians in Washington are becoming more and more desperate.
They failed with absolutely everything, win anything from trying to escalate this to WW3.
Afraid US are not going to gain anything from it 😢
They could risk being destroyed themselves 😢
I am waiting for Russia's oil production and refining capacity to crumble as the expertise required for these activities has left or is continuing to diminish. See Venezuela. Of course the orcs could be inviting their new friends in Iran to lend their expertise in exchange for oil money and/or nuclear weapon s as well. Scary!
@@thor9563😂
Putin is a criminal lunatic belong to federal prison for life.
Good video, keep it coming
Excellent!
Nice job!
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I think we are too obsessed about the economy crashing. In the right sense, the economy never crashes. It just undergoes cycles, and almost always recovers. So I really don't care what the predictions are. I just want to grow my portfolio. I read that people are pulling in massive profits despite the downturn. Any tips on how they do it?
The market will always recover. The goal is to find quality stocks with long term potential. It's hard for the average Joe to do this, because it involves following a lot of industry news, following up with earnings, etc. It's easier to invest through an advisor who knows how stuff works, and make rocket returns.
Investing in quality stocks with long-term potential is a good strategy, but it can be challenging for the average person to do this on their own. Keeping up with industry news and earnings can be time-consuming and difficult. That's why it's easier to work with an advisor who can help you make informed decisions and potentially achieve high returns.
@@hasede-lg9hj Well if isn’t that the hard truth…this investment-adviser that guides you must really on to something…who is he?
It’s a She actually, Vivian Carol Gioia I initially came across her on a CNBC news report then on smartadvisors and I decided to hit her up. Best decision I made to stay afloat 2020.
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Macroeconomics is not "black magic". Monitoring economic fluctuations already is a difficult task, responding to such fluctuations is not easy. If I remember right, it was J. K. Galbraith who compared monetary policy to driving a car at full speed, guided by what the driver sees in the rear-view mirror.
Great video 🎉❤
I've been anticipating the collapse of Russia to look vaguely like a negative logistic curve. In case you don't know what that is, a logistic curve is an S-shape curve, where the slope increases in an exponential nature until a certain inflection point, after which the slope starts to stabilize once again, but not surpassing a certain limit. The negative curve is the same thing, but in the opposite direction.
I suspect that Russia was in the slow section of the negative curve up until now, but now the speed of decline is starting to pick up. My novice hypothesis is that Russia will bottom out in late 2025 or early 2026, assuming this continues with the current state of affairs. But of course, my strength is in mathematics, not geopolitics, so there are a number of things that could cause that curve to look very differently. And I'm happy to hear other perspectives.
I would say it might be a bit different. During WW1, in order to fund its war machine, Germany issued war bonds and took on debt with the German Central Bank. This debt and the interest on it starts that vicious cycle of having to take on more debt in order to fund the war AND the increasing interest payments. Back then, politicians decided to let the Allies pay off the German war debt (once Germany would have won). In order to keep inflation artificially low, they instituted price controls and left the Gold Standard (which allowed everyone to exchange their Reichsmarks into Gold) in order to avoid a liquidity crisis. This worked out pretty well during the war, where you convert your industry to serve the war effort. But it also decreases the "useful" GDP (useful as in consumer goods or services that increase living standards), so even if your GDP increases (or at least doesnt collapse), it is kinda just inflated. When the war ended, the inflation in Germany was definetly not low, but it also wasnt a Hyperinflation. But thats where the catch is for both Russia and Germany after WW1. (Even though for Germany it was probably worse as the war effort was much more total and war reparations were a huge issue) When the war ends, you have to at some point remove capital and price controls, and prices will necessarily increase (in Macroeconomics, you differentiate between products with high and low Price elasticity of demand, and food prices have a very low price elasticity, so the demand for it wont really decrease that much when the prices increase) because of a economy with a really high money supply (due to government spending towards the war effort), a demand shifting towards consumer goods again (while the supply declined massively) and high government debt. When the war ended in 1918 (obviously it did end in 1919 but in 1918 the demobilisation starts so thats the interesting date in economics), this held-back inflation turned into Hyperinflation, because of the above mentioned effects.
And I do think there is a chance the same will happen in Russia. It might not be as bad as it was in Germany, but there will be a really strong increase in inflation once the war measures end and the economy converts back into a civilian time economy.
What is this curve? What is it plotting?
Thanks for this comment, factual and modest.
@@epiclighthd7655 I guess something similar could take place with the Ruble and either real gold or liquid gold (petroleum). But I see a few factors standing in the way of both of those. First, the fact that gold has been replaced with the US dollar, and that's a matter of deep resentment in Russia. Petroleum because of OPEC's omnipresent influence on anything to do with it or its products. Plus, Germany's case is from a time where macroeconomics was very much in its infancy, so I'm sure with our current knowledge, the case may not be nearly as chaotic, but the impact of the situation will likely be felt many times over around the world due to how interconnected everything is.
@@Eian_Anderson x axis is time, y axis is GDP. It's not my favorite metric, but it's a pretty solid indicator, all things considered.
Guys i think this 3 day special military Operation is more than 3 days now or is it just me?
Russia never put a date on this war however Russia really was sure it will be a short one which did backfire for a while but they have balanced themselves
@babanagrahim5439 they literally said it would only take a couple days...
@@babanagrahim5439 Maybe Putin did not explicitly mention 3 days. But many other "official figures" did, on camera.
@@babanagrahim5439 you know what happened in 1990 when the ussr went bankrupt, prostitutes increased and girls were spreading their legs as they always do for money when the economy tanks. you can get your sons butt plugs for the times that are coming also, as they too will have to take that type of work up. let them get use to it early.
@@babanagrahim5439 Because nothing screams "short campaign" like sending your soldiers underprepared and with police equipment rather than long campaign supplies, right?
On point as ever sir.
Gawd man, you made my head hurt with that inflation talk... 😅
Хотя курс рубля по отношению к доллару и евро стабилизировался, цены на бензин и продукты будут повышаться, а зарплаты- нет😢
В итоге страдают не те кто это все начал а обычные люди
Ordinary people started the war. Do you think Putin alone invaded Ukraine? Just maybe there was an ordinary people's soldier involved.
"We ordinary people cannot change things" is the worst excuse ever. A whole country of apologists. You all are the country. You all carry responsibility for the war.
@@alexanderboll8028 I didn't start shit man what u talking about?
@@aubrey7303 If you are a Russian in Russia: yes you did and yes you do. Ordinary Russians are part of this war, if they are lying to themselves about it, or not.
Except for the minority of Russians who actually oppose the war by fleeing the country, being civilly disobedient, sabotaging, demonstrating etc. Everybody else is supporting it even by paying taxes and not toppling their Führer.
"А мы шо, а мы не причем. И вообще так как-то нигде и никак."
Война началась в 2014 году. Уже забыл как вы тогда все обрадовались, даже путло на -третий- четвертый срок выбрали. Сейчас не начало, сейчас продолжение. Второй сезон.
@@SianaGearz Ну я за него не голосовал. И мои знакомые тоже
There is trouble within Russia because ability to keep the oil refineries operating is eroded by the lack off technical skills and technological difficulties. Replacement parts are sanctioned by the west. BP,EXON and other large operating companies have left Russia.
are you really so much of a moron that you think that Russia, which is the world's largest constructor of nuclear power plants, which to date is the only nation to have mastered titanium welding, which along with the US is the only nation to operate its own global positioning constellation of satellites - does not have the technical skills and technological difficulties to keep its EXISTING oil refineries operating? Not even talking about building new ones here (which BTW it is too).
How do you think those oil refineries appeared in Russia in the first place? Do you believe that Western multinationals built them, in the Soviet era?
The output of Raw Oil in 22 and q2/23 teils another Story. Either they have big stock, or did find other suppliers or manufactur them there own...
Thanks!
Thank you!
The Wage / Price "Spiral" is more of a theoretical than an actual realized outcome when there are supply shocks
Yeah, in Australia the official Inflation rate is 4%. Meanwhile the average grocery shop is up 200%, cost of rent is up 150% and cost of fuel is up 30%. I have no idea what they are measuring. Maybe the cost of snail shells only went up 4%, so they are only measuring that.
That's grossly exaggerating the figures, except for fuel. However, I do recall hearing somewhere that the cost of housing is not included in the proverbial basket of goods that is used for measuring inflation in Australia. The justification is probably that housing is not traditionally viewed as a recurring cost of living like food, utilities, transport, etc, but in a market where the price of housing has been overheating for the past few decades and increasing numbers of people are becoming forever renters where the cost of housing IS a recurring expense, the problem with not including housing in a figure that is supposed to represent the increase in the cost of living should be readily apparent.
Neither side of politics has the guts to really tamper down the housing market since Labor lost the unlosable election on that platform, though, so I suspect that the powers that be will continue to pretend that housing costs are not part of inflation.
Housing for example is suffering from greatly increased demand with a severely choked supply. That's not "inflation". That's just real estate demanding a massive premium.
@@Draxynnic Housing costs are part of Chinese capital flight, countryside exodus, "digital nomads", etc. and not inflation.
It's not that your money buys less house. Houses are pure and simply worth more than your money.
@@ChucksSEADnDEADYou have (some of) the causes right, but your conclusion is wrong. Increasing housing costs leads to increasing costs of living and of doing business, leading to increasing prices in order to meet those costs (either directly, or indirectly through the medium of increased pay for employees), which is where inflation comes from. Thing is, Australian inflation measurements don't recognise that rent is a cost of living for an increasing proportion of the population, and therefore doesn't take it into account until it filters through into higher prices for goods and services.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD Demand exceeding supply is what causes inflation. The supply/demand/price/quantity diagram is one of the most basic principles of economics.
"Nothing puts people to sleep faster then macroeconomics."
Yet here I am learning about macroeconomics on the internet in my free time from numerous sources with 0 expectation of ever needing the knowledge in my job. Maybe my friends are right and I need to be checked for autism or something lol. That simple frase did actually stung a bit.
Excellent explanation thanks
-750 million Euro /day from fuel and gas exports to europe are starting to hit all branches of rusian economy
I think that you must have been using the term "oil" as shorthand for gas and diesel. To my knowledge there has never been a ban on the export of crude oil. There was a ban on the export of refined gasoline and diesel. There is a huge difference between the two. A barrel of oil is useless in running a vehicle unless it is refined. Crude oil has many constituent parts, and it breaks down to supply certain amounts of everything from kerosene to jet fuel to gas and diesel. Russia is having trouble selling all the oil it can produce. It never was a problem with the supply of oil. The problem must lay in refining capacity. Before the war, Russia had ample capacity to refine both for the domestic and export markets. Since it is now having problems, this would indicate that it is having problems in refining capacity. The most likely culprits are either failing infrastructure because of the lack of Western equipment and expertise or a lack of required inputs for the refining process. It has also been suggested that because of lower volumes that Russia is having trouble balancing production, but this seems unlikely to me.
Rosstat is the agency that is charged with measuring the inflation rate and not the Bank of Russia. It is similar in the U.S. The Dept. of Labor and an independent bureau measure inflation in the U.S. and the Federal Reserve is charged with promoting policies to ameliorate that inflation. Rosstat has been taken over by goons and can't be trusted. The Bank of Russia and the Russian Ministry of Finance still have professionals in them. There are plenty of Russian lifestyle TH-cam channels. They do not report the same sort of relatively happy stats as Rosstat. They all report massive rises in the costs of living. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Finance publishes monthly data that does not square with Rosstat. When you compare tax data from 2022 to 2023, you see horrific economic numbers like double digit falls in income and VAT (sales tax) collections. You also see that Russia has suffered higher than 50% falloffs in oil and gas tax collections. Normally in these sorts of situations you would see bankers and stock traders flinging themselves form high buildings. I guess that in Russia political opponents have precedence and so the finance men will have to wait for an opening.
Man, you're brilliant.
This video is wishful thinking. Russian resilience is not to be doubted. But stifle away as the American oil prices already are double, often triple that of here.
Amazing ❤️
Not so hidden now 👀
Lines, precious lines, yesssssss!
a sudden change in inflation rate indicates a much, much bigger spike in the rate for that one month - what's the average of 11 5's and a 22 - you have to try very hard to get a 1% increase in estimated inflation in 1 month, on an annualised basis..
Riveting analysis. Well done
Russia's doing pretty good all things considered. Vast majority of world countries won't follow through on sanctions, that's a big part of it.
Yup. Even NATO member Turkey spits in the face of the West and trades with Russia even more
I wouldn't say they're doing pretty good, as we don't really have an access to most economic data coming from Russia.
Vast majority of countries in the world can't afford to replace Europe or deal with uninsured Russian tankers.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD Nah, it's quite the opposite. 7/8 of humanity don't give a damn about Western sanctions and trade with Russia as they see fit
Losing 30,000 men per month in the prime of life as in kaput, plus another 50,000 per month with life-altering injuries, while burning through the nation's military hardware at a rate not seen since Saddam Hussein took on NATO and friends, does not qualify as "doing pretty good" in my book. Ruble revenue can be replaced. Losing upwards of 500k men per year to death or debilitating injury in a nation that had already been suffering from sever demographic shrinkage -- not so much.