The Complicated Politics of Secret Military Aid and International Exposure
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ก.ค. 2024
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China and Russia share a "limitless friendship" that has seemingly been defined by critical limits throughout the invasion of Ukraine. Recently, though, some chatter in Western intelligence circles has renewed concerns that China may be secretly providing Russia with lethal aid. This video explores China's incentives not to do so publicly, whether Beijing may still be willing to give aid secretly, and why the West might not reveal such actions even if they were taking place.
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0:00 Russia and China's Limitless Friendship
0:34 Disputed Intelligence Report of Chinese Aid to Russia
1:59 Was the Intelligence Report Wrong?
3:51 Problems with Dual Use Technology
9:19 Secret Chinese Assistance and Doubling Down
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Everyone please go see Scarlett Johanssons new movie thats coming out called "Fly me to the Moon"... its all about how Americans faked the moon landing.🤭🤭🤭🤭🤭😂😂😂😂😂😂
The use of a VPN is banned/not private in India, following a law being passed recently. You might want to not use that example in your plug again.
Strong one. Yet disappointed.
China milking out RF money and eyeballing natural resources for a form of neokolonisation.
When RF about the crumble. China might swing. Outer Manchuria transitting to an independent state evolving to a vasal state to... Recovery of historical territory, natural resources and the much wanted sea access.
Not interfering with stances on Taiwan. Why überhaupt starting with Taiwan. 😊
@@NoobsIndia Banned, sure, but I doubt they can block every VPN server outside of india. Local servers are just not available. Since you're skirting a law, use extra features like double VPN or something. Also use an anonymous payment method and don't put the app on your home screen lol
Just wanted to remind you that you were wrong and I was right about that bald guy who led that fake mutiny in Russia. I said it was a trap to get Putin's enemies to all come out of the woodwork while you, like Putin's enemies in Russia, assumed it was a legitimate coup. I want you to openly admit you were wrong about baldi.
"He says Xi says..." Never change, William.
@PlanetSaturnClub Yeah it is funny how they turn memes into satiric movies. Next they are going to go full nutjob and make flatearth or anti vax movies. You never know.
@PlanetSaturnClub that's a silly movie don't you think if the Americans faked it the USSR wouldn't immediately call them out and win the space race
HE'S XI AND XI'S A HE..
Xi sells artillery shells by the Back sea shore.
so good!
Citing you own paper is such a flex over all other youtube commentators
He did it well too. Introducing your credentials with humor is always a good idea imo.
Gotta plug yourself whenever you can. Might as well do it with class.
"It's an International game of poker, and everyone is cheating."
-Beau of the Fifth Column
i wish more people watches beau
I imagine there is alot of crossover between this channels audience and Beau's audience.
Howdy, fellow Internet Person!
May the best cheater win 🏆
I found the nutjob @@PlanetSaturnClub
Ah the classic children's board game conundrum. Keep quiet about the subtle cheating you know is happening, or call out cheater and risk a table flip tantrum.
Take a moment to count all the things around you with Microchips, phones, computers, "birds".
They ain't real
"If it flies, it spies"
Going off the fact when I served in Afghanistan we used to find weapon cashes with Chinese receipts ..... I wouldn't be surprised
pics or it didnt happen
But mostly you probably found caches with US made weapons from the 80s in Saudi and Pakistani crates, right?
You need a healthy dose of insight into your own country's dirty laundry, my guy.
@@Emanon... this -.-
Did you look at the dates on those receipts? They were probably purchased by the CIA for the mujahideen during the 80's in their struggle against the Soviet Union.
Chinese weapons are not necessarily sold to them directly by China.
I can't believe I have to explain this but you ARE an American.
Please dont underestimate the incompetence of our politicians here in the UK. Shapps isn't in his role on merit, more so that he's failed every other he's been in. There's a reason his party are due to have a historic defeat in our coming election
After the exposure of the 1600+ British girls who didnt get justice because the sexual predators were brown, I will never have any faith in the UK gov.
He’s even famous for having multiple fake names too, one of the least trustworthy people in government and that is saying a lot!!!
So he said the quiet part out loud? Due to incompetence?
@@NotASeriousMoose Most likely
I mean he did say the simplest explanation is Shapps is just wrong, but the "something shady is going on" is the most interesting and funniest possibility.
Dual use also applies to Chinese made plate carriers, uniforms, tires, etc. The micro chip thing is very important, but it is completely obvious when a Ukrainian captures a Russian soilder that is wearing Chinese made multicam knockoff uniform and "airsoft" plate carrier. China might not be giving lethal aid, but they are giving everything else
Yep, though unfortunately the reality is that the performance of even these same so-called 'dual-use' chips can also be found in automobiles, cellphones, and fpv drones... as well as military apps.
And ofcourse food, water, logistical vehicles like trucks.. All that is insanely important in a war and very valuable aid. Does not make that much difference. Whatever China is providing for them they don't have to produce themself.
@@Jartran72 a great example is the flood of chinese combat golf carts
China didnot supply any weapon to both side. However, nearly all EU memebers/US give weapon/missles DIRECTLY to Ukraine. You see who wants more fire in war, right?
@@uWr.Ppel112 You forgot the chinese "hunting rifles" and their corresponding ammunition.
Tldr: once covert limited action becomes public knowledge, escalated overt action is incentivised.
So whatever the option, _Schapps is an idiot_ for publicly mentioning this.
Especially if it is indeed #3) Something more nefarious.
You don't know that. For example, it's possible he was paid by Russia to help increase China's reluctant miltary aid. That seems unlikely... and yet I saw a US congressperson with that month's Kremlin talking point bullet-pointed on their notepad. And it was a flag waver of a congressperson, to boot!
Unless, of course, he was told to say it in order to get slapped down, so as to plant the seed (that resulted in this video for example) without it "really" being exposed.
Great writing on this one Mr. Spaniel
That's not a picture of a microchip that's a CPU socket.
nerd alert 🚨🚨🚨
Funnily enough that actually is a CPU back in the older days they would have a separate board under the CPU to help with their transfer speeds because the CPU was so bad. They didn't even use all of the pins. I'll have to do a bit of searching, but I've seen a few like that one.
That's not a socket, that's a package.
I think Syria has Egypt's old flag because they where united as the same country for a couple years, from memory not google. Edit, I was correct! from 58 to 61.
And they did not make a new flag? How lazy
They werent technically one country, it was an arab federation.
The old UAR?
Always a great day when Dr. Spaniel uploads his hard work!!
"He says Xi says..." bet you loved saying that line xd
Well that was a can of worms I didn't think I'd see open today. Thanks, I guess? xD
I guess in the last case you should acknowledge the support in secret and threaten them with secret consequences as well, however I think a lot of business interests play a role too
Hide from the shady guy... Unless it's a shady guy too.
Such a shame you didnt double down on the paper! People couldve shortened it to the D6 paper, making it sound like some secret project
D8+C.... "...Done Dirt Cheap..."
@@MatthewJOsbourne Filthy Acts at a Reasonable Price
Great vid William! Keep up the good work! 👍
It's funny to see Grant Schapps mentioned in serious geopolitical videos when he's the latest revolving door defence secretary and used to sell get-rich-quick schemes with fake reviews online
Very interesting! Blinken is right, publicity wouldn’t deter China 🇨🇳 at all 😅
@PlanetSaturnClub And what’s the relevance of a “let’s make fun of tinfoil hatters” movie to modern geopolitics? 🤔
China is simply helping Russia build air conditioners for those long hot balmy summers, droughts and monsoons they must endure. That is why they are sending all those chips and manufacturing equipment.
Great video! Thanks for making it.
Let's go! Love your work William!
8:30-8:37
That is a _stunning_ table.
Thank you 💛 William.
As always, great video. Great analysis.
Interesting. Thanks for the video.
Thanks from Australia Dr Spaniel.
Seear to your country
@@TheSmeik For LoM - ofc. (I was in the RAN if that's what you mean.)
Is it "aid" if Russia pays a premium on it?
Presumably it still makes Russia better off, or at least that's what the Russians presumably believe or else they wouldn't take the deal.
If it allows them to do something they otherwise could do... Yes.
@@user-xh2yg4uv9q Aid implies they are getting something out of generosity from other countries. Instead, you have third-party countries taking advantage of Russian desperation by selling them goods at inflated prices or demanding that Russian sell them commodities at extreme discounts. It seems less like aid and more like predatory trade.
The only shady character in this story is grant schapps, trying to appear competent , in the run up to an election
yah on the microchips part...
*eyes my japanese smart toilet that probbably got more microchips in it than a phone.
"He said Xi said" and I just spat out my drink laughing
Thank you for another excellent video!
Thank you for choosing to go the TH-cam way to share your insights.
Now imagine Russia trying to leak the secret discretely so Chia doubles down
Thanks. Good stuff
Thanks for posting this video
Good one
Thanks! Learned quite a lot
Of course China is helping russia.. how China hasn't been slapped with sanctions yet is baffling
Great video William, as usual. But @6:36: the first things thefirst computers (end of 1940s, begin 1950s, for instance the US ENIAC) did exactly that: calculating the trajectories of balastic artillery and misiles 😉
Cheers from a fellow William
7:18 was a major "For British Eyes Only" missed opportunity.
Can one even call it secret? It is quite blatant.
Another great video
=
its a lot like iran/iraq war to a remarkable degree. History repeats itself obviously but the dynamics are so similar. Two massive nations in region with large populations fought because iraq went for a land grab. Hoped it would be quick eventually dragged into 8 years of brutal trench warfare and iraq heavily sanctioned loss value on its oil and tourism etc and leaned on non warring financially lush neighbor in saudi and kuwait.
That ended up out of pride and not wanting to lose its war to be more fatal to iraq then the fightinng and same can be said for long term prospects in Russia. Putin would rather mortgage his countries furture for any short term gains in its very personal conflict with its neighbor. Check it out I could be wrong but lots of parallels.
Good reporting. Thank you. Strong democracy.
Nobody who supports ukraine cares about democracy
The alternative title gave me some ACDC vibes and an audible chuckle.
I think China also sells dual use equipments to Ukraine. So China is assisting Ukraine as well. 😂
"He says Xi says ..." multiple-chuckle bonus points.
Great stuff, thanks
0:09 The gravity of their mistakes is causing their heads to tilt.
Plenty of screwdriver kits and dual use equipment could apply. Hunk of junk is a paperweight until chips appear.
Chinese golf carts have been moving the meat wave for the past year or so. Everyone's just chill with that?
Lol do people still think Russia is fighting with spades and human waves? Western propaganda is real
You think that is a bad thing? Those things are slow and unarmored.
@@LizardGulps Meat walking by itself is slower and less able to expose UA positions. The carts represent lost UA territory/lives that allow for RU armored resources (BMPs, etc) to be used more effectively.
08:08 - "Make money, not war" :p
HOW CAN I IGNORE SLIM SHADY!!!
You could revert to the original title if you publish a revised version of the paper.
Really interesting
Thanks!
Thank you!
10:00 you missed the fourth option: do nothing but pretend publicly you did do that thing. That's kind of like the Quaker ship owners who are reputed to have "armed" their ships with wooden cannons to deter piracy
Spaniel!!!!
I’d be interested in a retrospect on your video for the past year or two. How much came true how much did you get wrong ect
About the Computer Chips: Everyone Except Taiwan struggles in the Market below 10nm. Lot of Military Tech is around 28-14nm or even larger. The Automotive Industrie is just going down to 28nm Tech. That say, Russia has just reached 90nm Tech. Which is 2004 Tech. But of course Russia can't produce it in quantity, while most other Industrial Nations can crank out 55nm and lower on mass. For reference a Raspberry Pi 4 has a 16nm CPU. Plenty for a Weapons System. Which can be produced literally everywhere, except in Russia which is on the Sanction List for ASML since 2014. Without them there is no Process below 22nm today. China has a mass production 14nm Process running. And it has announced that it goes below but they are not in massproduction, yet. But as i said 28nm - 14nm is plenty for Military applications.
Please offer the resources of this video.
modern vehicles have a lot more than 1 computer in them... id say you bought a networked server is more accurate...
I think this is like asking if water is wet.
next question : does water wet ?
Alliteration is goated you slick willy boy
Who cares? It's their business. They can make money however they'd like.
Until the civilians in Russia stop the war of conquest then they SHOULDN'T be allowed microchips for the civilian sector
It'll turn out very soon who is friend and who is foe, as push will come to shove!
Yup that’s what is happening I know the Chinese have been supplying Russia with microchips and weapons. But now they are going to send spec ops units to Russia via NK, with NK uniform like in vietnam it just got a whole lot more interesting.
Source?
>Does nothing
>Wins
"Secretly"
What do you mean "secretly"?
WELL IF THERE NOT THEY SHOULD BE ,I AM 🇨🇦
If you want to deter something, you need to have your threat be credible. That means that, even though you're not happy about it, you have to follow through in order to avoid loss of credibility for your future threats. If you weren't going to have to follow through, you probably shouldn't have made the threat. So when we figure out that a country isn't happy about having to follow through on a threat, that doesn't really tell us anything.
The western sanction do not affect the production of weapons using chips as the sanctioned chips are high end (15 nanometer nodules and smaller) while the chips most regularly used in military equipment are above 15 nanometer nodules as military equipment would break too quickly with high end chips. These low end chips used in most military equipment world wide are not mainly from sold West to East but produced in the East and sold to the East. So western sanctions on chips sales of 15 nanometer and smaller do not if only slightly affect Russian weapon production
That's what Xi said
Hilarious, love it.
why do we still differentiate between military and civilian use of goods imported by Russia? If there is ANY potential dual use, sanction it now at 100% and be done with it. We are still afraid of our own shadow.
Hi Dr. Spaniel!
Is this your first sponsored video?
Funny Valentine's stand be like 9:41
I can't work out where after Putins victorious visit to China he then followed this by another victorious visit to DNK. Having Lavrov looking like a baby with a smacked bottom all the time must have been positive 😊
What name was Mr schnapps using at the time Mr smith Ms Jones or Dr brown? I think we should be told.
He says Xi says there are Sea Shells on the Sea Shore.
Hey William will you make any comments on trumps statement that Putins terms for ending the war in Ukraine are "unacceptable"?
Trump, unlike others in the US, has peace in mind, everyone else wants war. Although, even if he is elected, he can hardly change anything, the US is making a lot of money from this war, it will do everything to make it last as long as possible.
Washington confused? Never
Doubling Down: Dirty Deeds, Done Dirt Cheep.
The purple and blue guy from Monsters and co. Is National security advisor?
Not really secretly
Your paper could've been titled something even sillier, like "Dirty Deeds Doubled-Down on Dirt Cheap".
I wouldnt lie if I was leader.
Good exsample of dual use are also these "off road golf carts" from china dussia uses to move small amount of troops and equipmsnt fast.
They are clearly designed for civilian use and have no protection what so ever, but russia uses em on the frontlines anyway.
I'd love to see a video on the Myanmar civil war sometime
Xi really does look like Winnie the Pooh.
How about that Russian S-500 missile system?
I'm glad you explored this option and it is likely China is at least willfully supporting Russian weapons industry. We also have to ask why North Korea and Iran have been so happy to ship loads of armaments and ammunition to Russia, maybe China is backfilling for some of these..? In my view exposing Chinese intervention for what it is would be very much called for to hasten the severing of our economic dependence on this expansionist, bloodthirsty dictatorship.