What Happened to the Leadoff Hitter?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ต.ค. 2023
- In modern baseball, the conventional notion of a leadoff hitter as the fastest player with a high batting average and stolen base potential has evolved. Teams now prioritize optimizing their lineups based on data and statistics. The leadoff spot is the most critical position in the lineup, with the highest expected runs and runs created per game. This shift in strategy has led to unconventional leadoff hitters like Kyle Schwarber, who may lack speed and have a low batting average but excel in other aspects, such as working deep at-bats and drawing walks, thus setting the tone for the team. The focus is no longer solely on speed and average, as teams look for players who get on base and create more scoring opportunities. This new approach has resulted in slow hitters with high on-base percentages being placed in the leadoff position, demonstrating that a one-size-fits-all approach to leadoff hitters is no longer valid in today's game.
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Billy, his name is Kyle Schwerber. He’s overweight, slow, bad at defense, and he’s constantly among the league leaders in strikeouts…but he gets on base
Such a good movie
I love how you tied it together in the end
Imagine how much higher his on base percentage would be if he cut down his strikeouts by 20%
Honestly, the biggest credit to Billy Beane's Moneyball team, are named Zito, Hudson or Mulder.
And that's not the true schwaber effect. His teammates bat like .050 average higher with him leading off.
I'm OK with the trend of having on base be more important for the leadoff spot. But in an overall sense I want to see baseball play a lot faster and be less "three outcome" focused.
Yeah I agree. It’s great to see a balance and fast players are a ton of fun.
I would think that Schwarber striking out 200 times a year negates his OBP, at least when it comes to batting leadoff. Hell wouldn't Harper be a better leadoff option?
I would think that Schwarber striking out 200 times a year negates his OBP, at least when it comes to batting leadoff. Hell wouldn't Harper be a better leadoff option?
Wouldn't strikeouts be least important from a leadoff hitter? If nobody is on base ahead of them, a strikeout is entirely identical to a groundout, flyout, any other out.
It's gotta be the single spot in the lineup where strikeouts are punished least given that at least one PA per game has nobody on base and likely more given that 7-9 hit ahead of them
@@unkledoda420 he could strike out 400 times w/ a .350 OBP and still be a net positive in the leadoff spot.
Watching Rickey Henderson as a kid, it was quite common for him to lead the game off with a walk, steal of 2nd base, steal of 3rd base and scoring a run with a sacrifice fly. Nothing deflates a starting pitcher more than scoring a quick run without even giving up a hit.
Rickey Henderson 81 lead off HRs. Next closest is Springer with 57, but I think George is running out of gas on that. Mookie Betts is at 52 so he'll probably move the #2 mark, but it's a long way to Rickey.
Rickey's 1982 was terrifying to your point, 172 (Stolen bases + Caught attempts) in 149 games played. Ignoring foul offs, he was going more than once per game.
Me in mlb the show
@@Zraknul The story is Rickey would even let the baseman know he was going to steal a base.
His game where he stole 5 bases, scored 4 times without a recorded at bat is incredible. Seriously, he was walked 4 times.
I play SO MUCH small ball when I play MLB The Show lol. I have Elly leading off for the Reds and I do the steal, steal, score on a sac fly, groundout, etc like every game lmao. Plus Elly can still hit bombs. I know it’s just a video game but still lol
@@aaronhires8620 I do the same but with Trea Turner.
Steven Kwan is keeping the classic lead off hitter alive
Yeah
My goat 🐐 . Love Steven Kwan, he might hit for .400 (unlikely but let me live)
His batting average is better than schwarber's obp
STEVEN KWAN HAS GOT IT GOIN' ON.
Had to do a double take on that title cause i thought
"Wait what does that austrian painter have to do with baseball"
Believe it or not he invented the 7th inning stretch
I’m glad I’m not the only one, I saw Le Adolf Hittler
@@nickhueper2906me too 😂
These videos are so damn good. Absolutely love how he is able to pick things apart and then put them back together so it makes more sense. 👨🏻🍳
Rickey Henderson says, “Rickey is the greatest of all time”
❤ Rickey was amazing
Correct
Putting Ricky Hendersons picture up when you say "what was important in the past is drifting away" is quite silly. He had a career .401 OBP and if you take out his rookie season and his last 4 seasons his OBP was even better over the heart of his career. Ricky was exactly what you are talking about here as an ideal leadoff man with the same cherry on top that Acuna has. If he was in his prime today he'd be leading off, not because of his stolen bases, but his consistently fat OBP (297 HR doesn't hurt either).
this guys knows ball
Ricky was just ridiculous.
I don't think he's saying that Ricky wouldn't be a lead off hitter today, just that speed/steals aren't as important today. He used Ricky because although it absolutely wasn't the only thing he was good at, stealing bases and being fast as hell is what Ricky is most famous for
Rickey gave Rickey all kinds of opportunities to steal bases. In 1982, Rickey had more recorded steal attempts than games played. 130 steals, 42 caught.
Very entertaining.. i’m Digging the background music .. Good job .. 👍🏼
Thank you! We spend a lot of time looking for songs 😂 glad you enjoy!
yo this video is fantastic keep up the good work i hope your channel blows up and you get the recognition you deserve!
How did you make your intro? That was amazing watching the players coming in that way!
I’m I the only one that thought it said adof hitler
Yes
Nope I somehow read that to
Dyslexia fro teh wni!
I’ve been looking for this comment for 10 min
I think it makes a ton of sense. Most of the traditional lead off hitters aren’t real power threats. A guy like Nico Hoerners gonna get on base just as much as Schwarber despite hitting like 80 points better. What does it matter if it’s a single or a walk if you still got a runner on. Combine that with the power to give the team a lead and shake up the pitcher from the first at bat and it’s a good option.
Haa nothing to do with "shaking up the pitcher" but...
@@paulg6274Absolutely does.
Statistics remove the human element from the equation.
Getting a lead off homerun has a good chance of shaking up the pitcher for the rest of the game.
@@randomstuff508 significantly moreso than a HR from the 2 hole? 🙄 Fans make these elaborate psychological narratives to explain everything. 😂 Pitchers have given up hundreds or thousands of HRs in their career, it's not like every time it happens it completely changes the way they pitch for x amount of time. And you think its rattling them so much that its worth more than having a runner or 2 on base for that HR? 😂 Further, most human element theories can ve tested via analytics
@@randomstuff508 Statistics don't remove the human element, they show you what the output of the human element is.
@bobbygetsbanned6049 Mhm. Yep.
That's why so many pitchers are staying healthy this year.
Great video!
Great video bro, good job 👍
Thank you!!
Back in the day the Angels batted Brian Downing leadoff. Lifetime .370 oba. Had pop. Was slow.
Wade Boggs was the leadoff hitter in Boston more often than not. Can't say he didn't get on base. And was slow.
This is not a new phenomenon. OBA is the single most important stat in hitting. It's a lost art in most respects. Working counts and getting on base.
Speed is important too. Ricky Henderson had a undeniable impact on the game.
Brett Butler fouling off 12 pitches and walking in his first at bat had a impact on the game.
Kenny Lofton...
You just have to have a guy that has that ability. And it's lacking in todays game.
A certain professional bowler in Los Angeles has that skillset
I agree ... not a brand new concept batting a high walks guy 1st. I think that classic leadoff guy is just more rare nowadays. Homeruns are all the rage, and players growing up work on that more than the classic fundamentals. Guys like Henderson and Butler were so valuable. Juan Pierre won the Marlins a World Series against the Yankees with his leadoff abilities as well.
@furiogiunta7886 Juan Pierre was a relatively poor OBP guy, especially relative to his averages. Rickey Henderson was very much the prototype of a lead off hitter, but he had plenty of power.
@@N1120A Juan Pierre was not Rickey Henderson, but he was no slouch either. The season I referenced he batted .326 with an OBP of .374. In a 14 year career his batting average was .295 with an OBP of .343. Not Hall of Fame numbers, but certainly not poor.
PS ... Kyle Schwarber's career OPA is .340.
The most retarded season for a leadoff hitter was Brady Anderson in 1996. He hit .297 with 50HR, 110 R'sBI, OBP of .396 and a slugging % of .637 on top of a 1.034 OPS. Of course we can argue it was steroid fueled but it was a ridiculous season nonetheless.
You should've done more analysis of Rickey Henderson. Rickey has the most stolen bases and runs scored in MLB history and is 2nd in Walks. Rickey by far is the GOAT leadoff man
Great video. I hadnt quite put together the value of seeing more pitches and hitting dingers from the first spot. After all, a home run is a guaranteed run but getting on base relies on the guys following to get them home. I wont be as upset anymore seeing these sluggers at the top of the lineup
The best option for picking a great leadoff hitter is to get Ricky Henderson. Okay, I guess that's not possible anymore.
🎯 😂
Teams don't what there doing anymore
@@levidezern3190what
I like to say Kyle is not batting leadoff, he's batting cleanup for the 7-8-9 hitters. If we do get value out of the 7-8-9 batters, Kyle has a chance to bring them all home with a single swing. On top of that, he gets on base a lot and has a speedy turner behind him who is fast enough to avoid almost all GBDPs. He's technically leading off for inning 1 but is kinda batting 9th for the rest of the game.
Would players who would’ve been hitting leadoff a decade ago hit 7,8, or 9 now?
oh god that's genius
Schwarber drove in 57 RBIs from those guys. The 47 where he drove in himself isn't too shabby either.
Great way of looking at it!
The problem I ha e with all these analytics is that they all focus on slight advantages over the course of a season like 10 extra potential runs but can anyone point to a single instance where you can say that would actually have made a difference. You cant say the 10 extra runs ever came in a 1 run game. For all you know it's just 10 more runs in blowout wins or losses. And it seems to me that the champ at the end of the year pretty much ranks the same in OBP that they do in BA. Almost like the entire different between their OBP and the rest of the league is that they just hit the ball more. And honestly I think it makes much more sense to build a team around BA because in the playoffs, against elite pitching, you can't rely on getting walks. If I'm in the 9th in the playoffs vs an elite closer I hope my leadoff guy hits .300 rather than be someone who is going to stare at 3 heaters painting the corner.
I feel like George Springer as leadoff for the Astros was a game changer
Brady Anderson
@@deepzone31Anderson was a lesser version of Rickey Henderson
@@N1120A I accept that.
Alfonso Soriano?
Am I alone in hating the “three outcome “ thing?
i dont recall "the book" saying 1 was the most important, from my memory it said 1, 2 and 4 are where you put your best hitters, but you need different guys in each. if you had 2 guys with the same obp, but one has more home runs, you want the one with more home runs batting second
“The Book” used to say you put your best hitter 3rd.
@@lordofthemound3890 im talkin about the actual book called "the book." the metaphorical book used to say that, but, that was wrong, doesnt matter too much though, dont sweat the lineup too much.
I'm really curious if there has been an increase in first inning double plays since this change in the role of the lead off hitter.
Wade Boggs (a slow guy with great OBP) was batting leadoff in the ‘80s (sometimes).
.330 lifetime hitter with 3,000 hits are the key stats.
@@vlada 27th in average, 31st in hits, tied for 20th in OBP for players with 5000 PA (Equivalent of ~10 years of qualifying for the batting title).
Classic contact hitter.
The funny thing is Theo said that the Cubs offense was broken when Schwarber was leading off here. I think there has to be a breaking point because the the rule changes where stolen bases + high OBP is really what you want in a leadoff hitter.
Just foind this channel , love the content and degails ypu put in the baseball videos
Thank you!
Bro that title is nuts I really thought Hitler played baseball for a sec
great video!
Thanks!
I read that your #2 hitter should have the highest wRC+ on the team but from this video it sounds like your best hitter should actually hit leadoff then cleanup with your third best hitter in the 2 spot in the lineup. Am I understanding this correctly?
I'm confused by the expected runs created per game table. If each player in the lineup has an ERC number of about 2.5, that seems to mean the team is expecting to score 9 x 2.5 = 22.5 runs per game. I think runs created is a straightforward figure like that, and nota proxy number, so I must be missing something. Can someone please explain?
2:46 "In Chronological Order" would just mean in order of time.
Just a minor little nitpick
I know this is a month old but I’d like to point out a few things. First, the stat with RBI+R is very flawed, as home runs count as both an RBI and a run for the player hitting it. You’d have to make a home run only count for one RBI+R, as it’s only 1 run scored and not 2, like it’s counted. Secondly, Trea Turner stated that he cannot steal bases a lot because he’s in front of Harper, and if he steals, then Harper will get walked. You mentioned how his stealing isn’t as valuable with power hitters, but I’d argue that successful stealing is more valuable than given, as it forces the pitcher to adjust his approach to the current batter. I’d rather see Trea Turner leadoff with Schwarber second, as if Schwarber gets intentionally walked, it’s not as big a deal since Harper, Bohm, Castellanos or Realmuto will follow. The numbers don’t agree with my statement, but they don’t have the context we do to see that lineup configuration is a balance between the numbers and the players, with the goal always being run scoring.
Guess you could fix RBI+R by just adding -HR to the equation
How is this new? Rickey was getting on base more than anyone else forty years ago
Yes but Rickey was fast
I'm pretty sure that over the years on base percentage was always valued more for the leadoff hiitter than just considering pure batting average. As far as speed teams don't have any idea how to utilitze a player with base stealing speed anymore. There were so many other factors that a Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines affected when they got on. They disrupted everything on defense from the pitcher to the defensive positions. If a guy gets 30 stolen bags today he's a superstar. That doesn't even sniff the numbers that Henderson could get where in his best season he stole 130 bags.
Kyle Schwarber's two seasons at leadoff did NOT produce as many runs as Rickey Henderson did despite the massive HR totals Schwarber racked up. Schwarber is never going to sniff seasons like Henderson where he scored 146 or 130 runs. And if you look at RBIs to compare the two Henderson by correcting (deducting) HRs from Schwarber's totals Henderson's RBI totals also still compare well too. But what the numbers nerds really don't understand is the chaos created by men with speed on the bags and how it affected the overall play back when speed play was utilized. But then again that's why numbers nerds do what they do and aren't athletes that know how to play and win in sport.
A lot of those guys have played sports lol, there is a reason why every team uses those stats, are they not athletes anymore? And it also doesn’t matter if those speedy guys can’t get on base
One of the best videos I’ve ever watched, great work
Thank you!
The issue is that these 3 true outcome guys are great over the course of a 162 game season. But sometimes you just need well rounded guys who can get on base in a variety of ways when things tighten up at the end of a playoff series. The Phillies power-first team and lineup construction came back to bite them in games 6 and 7 of the NLCS.
I loved having the home run with soler in the 9 hole.
This is so interesting. They put a slugger as the lead off man. This is way different than the baseball i learned when i was young. They usually make the slugger the third or fourth in the lineup. I mean if it works it works. More at bat means more home runs. Makes sense.
I miss early 2000s baseball so much.
I feel like a glossed over part of this conversation is that modern analytics aren't necessarily solving or improving baseball so much as they are a different way to use probability when planning. The way OBP is viewed is very akin to how the NBA skewed toward 3 pointers over the last 15 years or so. It's playing the odds, but it's not the only way to be successful.
Take, for example, the St Louis Cardinals of the 1980s. They made 3 World Series and won 1 in the era with no real playoffs, just LCS. They placed the value on speed and defense, utilitzing stolen bases, hit-and-run, and incredibly tight defense to limit their opponents' scoring while manufacturing runs. It's hard to say that it doesn't work given the results.
That's not to say that the modern approach of OBP and power w/launch angles being dominant doesn't work- it clearly can. However, I bet if a team tried other approaches, especially when everyone else is trying to win the same way, there is success to be found by valuing players based on their skills that fit the different objective.
I think the problem with analytics is that just about every front office is coming to the same conclusions, so everyone is playing the same game. Everyone is far more willing to load up on sluggers and far less willing to employ athletic guys who can run and play defense. Part of the charm of seeing rosters being put together was seeing the diversity of talent. Nobody had analytical models saying what was the best way to go so teams tried to be at least a little good at all facets of the game.
Everyone except my favorite team, the White Sox. I have no idea what their plan is for this season besides put as many AA players on the field.
@@mrmacross very true. Eventually, a small budget team will make those adjustments to compete, and it will help correct the landscape. I say a small budget team, because they're usually the ones to make the change, as they eventually realize that they can't use the same approach as big markets, as they just can't win the money game long-term, and end up being a feeder to bigger budget teams. Only by placing value differently committing to a different strategy can they get back in the mix with players they can afford. Somebody will make the adjustment, get speed guys, pitch low to contact, and play air-tight defense or something similar, and people will call it brilliant even though it'd been done.
@@bananonymouslastname5693 they’ll run into a team that gets on base more and drives in more runs and lose. Also defense can’t fix bad pitching
@@Zach_82 The teams that did well using a speed/defense approach in the past were able to adopt a slightly different pitching philosophy that allowed them to get more out of pitchers who didn't have amazing strike out stuff. They pitched to contact with a focus on keeping the ball low to get more ground outs.
I'm not saying it's a fool-proof approach by any stretch, but rather a viable alternative for teams to consider that has won championships in the past, and might offer small budget teams a way to compete when they can't be the highest bidder on top power/OPS guys like the Dodgers or Yankees.
@@bananonymouslastname5693 guys who are good on defense usually are cheap cause they can’t hit so this team probably won’t be able to hit
What happened to the clean up hitter also
I get the more at bats for power hitters who bat lead-off, but they also bat more with the bases empty. Batting in the clean-up spot you get less at bats over the course of a year, but you bat with more people on base.
If only someone posted a TH-cam video discussing the very thing you’re talking about
@@lucasscott6984 For lead-off hitter give me the high on-base percentage guy that can steal 2nd and 3rd when needed to manufacture a run to win the close game. I want the power guys batting 3rd or 4th behind speedy high OBP guys with more power. I want the 3 run bomb instead of the solo homer.
Leadoff hitter only bats leadoff once per game. After that, he is just like anyone else, just with more plate appearances.
@@shorewall The lead-off hitter is guaranteed to bat with the bases empty at least once per game. After that the batters with the potential to be on base for the lead-off hitter are typically lower on-base percentage hitters. Whereas the cleanup hitter typically has the higher OBP hitters hitting ahead od him.
@@user-iu4ek5fq5kand Schwarber has a high OBP
Where did you get “who sees most pitches per at bat” stat
Fangraphs and Baseball Savant both have it
It feels like most teams have made a minor adjustment to this strategy, and if there's a huge discrepancy in SLG between your #1 and #2 OBP guys, and not as big of an OBP difference, then teams bat the power hitter 2nd and the other guy leadoff. You see this with guys like Judge and Ohtani hitting 2nd. The Orioles probably would prefer batting Gunnar 2nd, but Adley had trouble leading off at home because he couldn't get his catching equipment off fast enough to be ready to bat.
Bret Butler , Otis Nixon, Rickey Henderson, these arw leadoff hitters. Dodger's have a Bret Butler type in high A- 1st pick ( there's) Kendall George. Same look size , stance, speed,. attributes etc. Other than pigmentation difference obviously.
If the ‘08 Phillies were playing today, who do you think would be hitting leadoff?
Hmmm this is interesting. Rollins was not a bad leadoff hitter for that team at all because he still got on base at a super high rate and saw a lot of pitches. It wouldn’t surprise me if this team played today they tried Utley leadoff since he had the best OBP. That lineup was so loaded there are so many options they could’ve done and most would’ve worked.
When will a manager have the courage to field a team of the vertically challenged?
I used to disagree with people when they said baseball was boring, Now I agree its boring AF watching guys walk or strike out so much.
"Billy, why do you like him so much?!" .... Billy Beane, "Because he gets on base!"
I do like how the Phillies ended up losing both of the series you highlighted with Schwarbs (22 WS, 23 LCS). Funny how you can tell stories with statistics but somehow conveniently omit the most important outcome of all.
The goal of analytics is to provide a slight edge, which over the course of a season might result in more wins etc. Fans and critics of analytics mess up by thinking single event outcomes are heavily influenced by analytics
And? They still went far
And losing in the WS or LCS doesnt refute those stats. Incredibly poor logic.
Clown comment.
If you remember those series they lost because the whole lineup got cold. They emphasized the swing for homers philosophy in the whole lineup and when the lineup is hot it’s great, when cold it’s not. That’s another analytics discussion but Schwarber batting leadoff is not the reason they lost those series
the lead off spot is 4th highest on this list, not 3rd 5:04
"Turner could have been an amazing leadoff hitter on another team" we loved him in DC
i agree obp is honestly far more important than avg at the leadoff but looking at a team like the phillies, turners obp is that much lower and so having him at 1 and schwarber at 2 feels much more valuable, what goods a leadoff homer when he could hit a 2 run nuke batting second, in most circumstances id agree but schwarber hits way too many bombs that couldve lead to lost rbis
Getting hits doesn't matter as much when the bases are empty. A walk and a single are the same. Singles are worth more with runners on
@@bopete3204 no but home runs do, in the phillies case, trea turners obp isnt that much worse than schwarbers so him going to 1 and schwarber to 2 means much more potential runs with 2 run shots instead of solo shots, in most cases schwarber at 1 would be perfect but phillies are one of the few with a players whos close enough that dropping him down 1 wont change much
@@Kaoticreepera .3 difference is pretty big
Speed is a lot more useful for someone in say the 7 spot than the leadoff position. Getting a stolen base, only to have the person behind you hit a double or HR negates the benefit. But going from 1st to 2nd for a slap hitter with no power is going to generate some runs.
It honestly seems like if a guy with a high OBP has a low BA it’s better to put them in the lead off spot so guys that get hits at a higher rate have someone on base.
Youre right. If you simply put the guy who walks the most leadoff it would work out most of the time
OBP is more important for a leadoff guy while BA is more important for the guys trying to knock the people on base in. Also you want your guy who hits HR first getting the most plate appearances. I wonder if new pitch clock rule will affect stolen bases and alter this theory.
Steven Kwan is the ideal leadoff hitter
On base percentage
His name is Steven Kwan
Looks like a cubs reunion video
Oh god don’t show me that Clevinger “I just gave up a bomb” squat that flashed me tf back to that game
Err, try to PAUSE a little longer on key numbers, like runs created. That table flashed up there so quickly that I ha to back the video up like 4 times (pause works poorly on my tablet). i.e., leave the table up for say 10 seconds while you are talking.
This is why baseball is great. I have often wo dered why the best hitter doesnt hit first. More at bats/game
Best hitter should hit 2nd or 4th cause its not just about most ABs but ABs with runners on base are also very important. It's bizarre how 3 hole is actually 4th most important slot but thats how the permutations work out
@paulg6274 the 7 8 and 9 hitters can get on base too so the "best hitter" #1 has rbi opportunities right?
@@Bhanna4d but if you put good hitters 7 8 and 9 to get on base for the lead off, those htters are getting less ABs/game so that hurts more than gains. Your 3 worst hitters should hit 8, 9,7 in that order. "The Book" analyzes optimal line up construction in depth, it all makes sense.
@@Bhanna4d haha well ya obviously you want everyone to get on base, nobodys advocating for making outs, but the 3 lowest ob% guys should hit 789, maybe 678. You do want your 9 hole to be better than 8 hole cause the advantage of being OB for top of the order outweighs the slightly less plate appearances; but that's as far as it stretches
This is why you want to put your best hitter 3rd.
I'm a hardcore analytics/sabermetrics apologist, but I think managers and players need to get back to stealing more bases. The breakeven point is generally 67%, and that's not really hard that to get, and not running enough just doesn't put enough pressure on pitchers.
Honestly, I think that avoiding steals is less about sabermetrics, and more about owners wanting to protect their investment and avoiding injuries.
イチローは引退会見で次のように述べている
「2001年に僕がアメリカに来てから、この2019年の現在の野球は全く別の違う野球になりました。頭を使わなくてもできてしまう野球になりつつあるような…」
私は日本人ですが、それ以上に一人のMLBファンとして、イチローのような天才的なバットコントロールを持つ選手をまた見てみたい。
Steven Kwan, a classic Leadoff Hitter.
Simply put the lead off hitter more likely to get an additional AB. This if its your best overallhitter its an advantage
The first time I read the title, I thought it was about a grandson of Hitler or about a guy with a really unfortunate name
The Leadoff Hitter figured out than he makes more $$$ if he swings all his might EVERY time (like the PGA) and accidentally hits 20+ Homers.
I've been following baseball for 50+ years and I've always considered OBP to be the top priority for lead-off hitters, followed by base-running expertise, and speed itself didn't equal good base-running. Rickey wasn't the fastest runner in the league, but he was IMHO the best baserunner and his career OBP speaks for itself.
Definitely a interesting concept, and is just further proof that batting average means very little.
At this point, I view it as a fluff/sparkle stat. Its cool to look at, but it doesn't mean a whole lot.
Agreed!
If you had a lineup like the 1982 Cardinals who had no power (last in NL) but had a ton of speedsters (first in SB) who could get on base (first in OBP), then you probably should be somewhat concerned about clogging the basepaths.
Then again, nobody constructs a team like that anymore...
dang 5 spot is more important than 3. That’s crazy
Ironically, the Nats of all teams are staying true to the old ways with the speedy, high avg CJ Abrams leading off
Why isn’t Harper a better option? He has a higher OBP and usually a better wRC+
Cause you don't want your *best* hitter leadoff, its usally your 3rd best. Harper should hit 2nd or 4th. And you dont necessarily need power leadoff, ob% is just really what matters and the power is incidental. If your best hitter also has a lot of power he should hit 4th. (This is based on "The Book on Baseball"
I was spoiled growing up with Soriano
The problem with this philosophy is that Schwarber doesn't actually end up standing on base any more that Trea Turner.
OBP includes home runs, and while technically a hit (and a run) it does not put a runner on base to disrupt the pitchers flow or act as a potential run should the next batter hit a HR.
As long as you have an unlimited lineup of guys hitting 47 HR, it doesn't matter, but the whole philosophy behind the leadoff hitter getting on base is that the slugger has an extra runner on base when he hits his bomb. While a leadoff bomb still counts as a run, putting Schwarber at #3 in the lineup gives a better chance for one or even rwo runners to be on base when he hits one of his home runs.
OPB including HRs creates a blind spot in the statistics that causes this misrepresentation of the data.
2:45 "chronological order" doesn't make sense here.
Wade Boggs use to leadoff
OBP determining the lead-off hitter makes sense, as you want your hitter that will reach base safely the most to bat most. Preferring power there makes no sense. Sure, you guarantee that he will get an extra plate appearance in anything other than a perfect game, but you also guarantee that he will bat with no one on once a game. BAT THAT MAN 2ND!
I was using this strategy 10 years ago! (In MLB the show) lol
It'sa losimg strategy
@@levidezern3190no it’s not😭
You dont want to know what my brain jumped to when reading that title
But i do.
@@isiight.adolf hitler?
This video makes valid points, but give me the leadoff guy with speed and OBP. When he gets on, he can throw the pitcher's focus off with his base stealing threat.
Idk how many RBIs Schwarber had in 2023, but i think he wouldve had way more batting behind Turner instead of vice versa. And probably wouldve seen more pitches to hit. But thats just my opinion.
Agree to disagree.
I was waiting to see someone with a comment like this. Thank you good sir
But Turner didn’t have a high OBP that year
I thought the guy who leads off is the guy who gets on base most...thought that was always the case...
Felt like I was watching money ball when they say they get on base
Well, kid me was on to something when I always put Bonds (the fake Bonds since they couldn't use his name) at lead off in all the baseball video games I played
@breadandcircuses8127 Haha yep you know it. I think it was John Dowd tho?
Not everyone is a power hitter. This issue has to, become adressed.
Not every teams does this...
I know but, it has to be said out loud.
Steven kwan has something to say
Teams figured it out the lead off man should be with the teams. Best hitter because he’s guaranteed the most ABs
Jarren Duran.
That’s the whole comment.
They’re playing BR in MLB the Show IRL.
Steven Kwan would like a word…
Kyle had an on Base% of nearly .400 last year, 47 homers, 100 RBIs, and 100 BBs. I'm fine with him not hitting .280+
Anthony volpe
One huge problem with this.. the 2 teams in the World Series last year play old school baseball. You will see the teams playing old school win in the playoffs more.
Or guys who have high OBP, who just happen to have speed
This guy made a completely fabricated strawman argument and spent 11 minutes arguing against it. I never heard oldtimers once make the argument that batting average is more important than OBP for a leadoff hitter. In fact, it was always drilled into the leadoff hitter's head, just get on base. I agree that putting slow fat guys leadoff is a new concept (it was always looked at as clogging the bases and setting up potential double plays), but OBP always has been and always will be the most important stat for a leadoff hitter.
Yeah well schwarber make ball go boom