The Bryce Harper at First Base Experiment
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00:00 - The Surgery
1:00 - Throwing Ability
2:45 - Kyle Schwarber
3:28 - Learning 1st Base
5:40 - The WAR Critique
7:10 - Early Struggles
8:00 - Johan Rojas
8:30 - Two Perspectives
10:00 - He Hits Too!
10:15 - Stathead
Tommy John Tracker: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/... - กีฬา
![FIRST BASE MITTS MATTER SO MUCH MORE THAN YOU THINK [stop sleeping on them]](/img/n.gif)
Harper at 1B should be a +8 run value just for getting Schwarber out of left
LMAO! true tho
I can’t believe Ichiro’s throw on Terrence Long isn’t a throw that you just think about Bailey, very disappointed
When someone says "throw" that's the one that always jumps to mind.
fr, it's iconic
Yup - that throw and Bo Jackson's throwing out Reynolds.
Bo jackson too, monster throw a bit flat footed. (he is not fully behind the pitch) Shit is crazy. That throw really makes you understand how strong he was. th-cam.com/video/m4CHqb-CHJI/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=MLB
Edit: I added the link. Enjoy !
And all the cespedes throws
Harper hit 21 HRs, .293 avg, .401 OBP and 146 OPS+ in just a little over 120 games coming off this surgery. That's pretty damn impressive
Even more impressive when you consider there was a two-month stretch this season where he hit 0 homers
And he only had 5 homers entering August too, he was pretty much just an OBP + Singles guy until then
@@37willdog Longest stretch of his whole career without a HR
Overrated player
21 HRs after getting none for like 3 months is remarkable
Same thing for Mookie Betts at 2nd base. With Mookie being able to play 2B when a RHP starts, it allows the Dodgers to put their best lineup on the field by putting Jason Heyward in RF. He's been both fantastic offensively and defensively this year for LA.
Exactly what I was thinking the whole time, in the Acuna vs Betts debate, Betts’ versatility greatly helps roster construction and that aspect can’t be measured by WAR
I still think it’s Acuna though
@@carsonpicard1973Betts so much better
As a Braves fan, I've really enjoyed J-Hey's resurgence this season. The fact that he gets to spend it with Freddie makes it more than that; it makes the idea heartwarming 🙂
Another note on Harper is that his power hadn’t returned basically at all until mid-August. He’s been crushing the ball ever since then and is peaking at the perfect time for the Phils to make another run at the World Series.
Bryce is HUNGRY I have no doubt about it
rojas has been great as a rookie too. not just defensively but had a lot of timely hits along with hitting for average and great at running the bases.
Ik he’s slowed down lately, but Pache has been great too tbh
@@fatdingo8251pache has been a beast against lefties. Marsh needs to start but I’m torn between who should be in center
@@wesfry03marsh will be in left and Rojas will be in center to help Casty
Let's put it this way -- Rojas could have an OPS of .600 and still be a net positive player. He is that outstanding in center.
Honestly, it has been incredible to watch. He is better than a young Shane Victorino, and I do not say that lightly.
This is the type of stuff you can only dream happens. A star player gets injured and then learns a new position so the whole team can be better. Harper has always been a stud, this just adds to his continuing legend. I have no dog in the fight anymore but Harper will be fun to watch!
Harper's power also came back not too long after switching to 1B. Dude had a couple monstrous power surges these past 2-3 months
I think it might be unprecedented for someone to make a video about a player learning 1B without making a Ron Washington reference.
Would you say that doing so is...incredibly hard?
Another banger of a main channel vid. Keep it up, Bailey.
1:30 Ichiro throwing a laser beam to 3rd is the greatest outfield throw i will ever see
I know this is an obvious 20/20 captain hindsight situation but the Yankees definitely should’ve went for Harper
We get it
It was obvious back then too
You could say that for every team, without hindsight😂
@@Chooch4mvp yeah but the “reasons” they didn’t sign which you’re 100% right about btw were bad then and outright dumb now
Harper was apparently volunteering to learn first base for the yankees. This is a great video but it also makes me depressed as a Yankee fan
Yoenis Cespedes throw when he was on the A’s was insane too
you should consider doing a video about Brenton Doyle and Nolan Jones for the rockies, outfield assist record for a rookie duo and the hardest throwing center and left fielder by a mile. Doyle hit 105.7 to hold a runner, and Jones hit 102.7 to throw someone out
Doyle's defensive numbers in general are insane, hes a 99 99 99 and overall 100 on baseball savant for defense
Doyle is the funniest player in MLB right now. He's singlehandedly the best non-cactcher defender and worst hitter in baseball. They balance each other out to 0.9 in both WARs.
He's last in wRC+ for his number of PA and it's not even close
43 wRC+ - Doyle
60 wRC+ - Tim Anderson
60 wRC+ - Brice Turang
61 wRC+ - Javy Baez
Great video Bailey! love the more direct narrative style you do here on your main channel, you've gotten way better at it since I started watching you a couple years ago :)
Great way to explain concisely, towards the end, how Bryce Harper playing First Base helps the team, but not neccesarily himself. People always talk about how valuable it is to have players who can play different positions, but it's rare to see such a clear example of why it is valuable.
Yeah and for a guy who is/was consistently derided as a primadona, that's a real team first move, especially now that he already signed the big contract.
@@garak55 I agree that Harper has been at times unfairly criticized. But I don't know about the last part of your statement.
I would argue it is easier to sacrifice your own stats for the team when you already got paid. Coming back faster from injury and playing an unfamiliar position can potentially make your stats look worse and give you disadvantage negotiating a free agent deal. But he doesn't need to worry about that and all that is left is to win a world series.
It makes me happy to see Harper on the Phillies... His energy just perfectly suits the energy that the whole crowd brings and that his team has. Can't help but feel like he's the catalyst that causes ALL of the hype. He truly has tthe perfect competetor's mindset when out on the field man, and it's damn fun to watch. Rooting for the Phils this post season.
Another interesting layer to the whole thing is that this change probably wouldn't have happened without Rhys Hoskin's injury. Harper moved to first not only because it was the only defensive position he could possibly play this year, but also because the Phillies had a real need for it. Before Harper came back they were playing Alec Bohm at first a lot, with Edmundo Sosa in the infield (and of course Schwarber in left) and it just wasn't close to ideal
No vlad senior or ichiro throws mentioned is wild. Harper at 1st has worked out really well for the Phillies.
This is my Super Bowl. Thank you Bailey
As a Phillies fan having schwarber and Castellanos in the OF has been a painful experience I love Bryce at first for this team
Castellanos has been amazing in RF this season
@@Tilt_TMonly outfielder with no errors
Bailey, i just discovered your channel. I am hooked! You are the best! The best throw was in 1967. Jose Tartabul threw out Ken Berry at home, from right field. This led to the Boston's pennant.
My problem with positional run adjustments has always been how it places too much trust in the competence of the manager to field the best team they can and punishes versatile players for offering roster flexibility.
Take for instance the rookie Yainer Diaz (Astros) who can play C & 1B, but played 38 of his 104 games at DH. Dusty Baker played him only as a backup catcher and refused to bench Jose Abreu to work Diaz into the lineup. Bear in mind that Jose Abreu and Martin Maldonado have a combined 0.2 bWAR & -2.0 fWAR over a total of 257 games between them this year while Yainer Diaz has 3.2 bWAR & 2.0 fWAR in just 104 games playing primarily as a backup catcher and DH. Obviously, there's no way to credit a player for 40+ games they could have played if their manager wasn't benching them for being a rookie. However, penalizing a player for playing DH because that's the only other way his manager will give him playing time is absurd.
Idk the exact numbers but I’m pretty sure Harper is also #1 or 2 in wpa for the Phillies all season which is crazy considering everything he’s had to do
He’s #2 in the entire league
Awesome vid, Bailey!
When you were talking about amazing right field throws, the first two that came to mind was of course the Ichiro throw, but also the Jose Guillen throw in Coors field. Also, a bunch of Vlady throws are coming to mind now too
I’m a Met fan, but I have to say, I freaking love watching Bryce Harper play. And I know he didn’t have a great reputation when he was in DC, but let’s face it, he came up as a 19-year-old. Most people are kinda jerks when we’re 19, generationally talented or not. I just don’t think he’s that guy anymore; he’s a husband and dad in his 30s, his teammates seem to love him (as do Phillies fans), he’s still killing it on the field, and he’s doing something a lot of players wouldn’t do in service of his team. It annoys me because of the team he plays for, but then again, the Mets are utter trash, and likely will remain so for a while, so whatevs. 🤷🏽♂️
Great vid! I'f im not mistaken before Rojas took over center field, Schwarb's WAR was about negative 0.2, so that speaks of how well has he has done as a DH despite the value cut from the lack of field play
Just found your channel, excellent analysis, subscribed.
Another banger Bailey love ya kid
Great deep dive, thanks for the fun-ucation!
Maybe it’s your age, but Bo Jackson should be on there for the throws!
Harper worth every penny and then plenty more after the 13yr/330mil deal. He and Machado reshaped the market. And now teams are giving 10+ year deals and more annual average to lower value players. Everyone now is aware that a Red October can be scary for basically any opponent
Damn man just found you on here through pitching ninja. Very very good stuff
I came back to this vid on a whim and I just realized, this is the utility factor that's so hard to quantify about Ben Zobrist, Chris Taylor, and in a different way, Shohei Ohtani. Because the positional spectrum assumes a competently built team, or rather defense, the Phillies have defense issues, but different teams come in different shapes and sizes. We're saying something along the lines of "Bryce Harper deserves credit for freeing up the DH spot so Schwarber doesn't have to play the field". However, we're talking about WAR, and it has to contextualize production for any player on any team. Bryce Harper playing 1B instead of DH on a team without a capable full-time DH like say the Cubs, just isn't as valuable to the Phillies where him playing DH makes Schwarber play the field. To that extent how much is this just Harper saving the Phillies from a problem of their own making.
Another thing is how valuable is it to play any position, because sometimes its down to bats than anything, I'm thinking more with Zobrist, but that 16 Cubs team had a stacked infield with Bryant, Baez, Russell. Drop one of Baez or Russell to fit Zobrist at 2nd, or drop the struggling Heyward or defensive liability in Schwarber, and Schwarber can DH in the AL games. There is value there, however its very hard to quantify because many teams don't have problems like this. We can't give credit to Harper or Zobrist, for helping their managers out of self created jams in the first place. We can't really make a factor for just Bryce Harper.
We can however make a factor just for Shohei Ohtani, because he is the most unique player in baseball, and adding an element to WAR that appreciates this would be good. Because WAR treats Shohei the pitcher as a regular old pitcher, which is fine I don't think this needs to change. However Shohei the hitter is treated like a DH, which is incorrect, he's not a DH, the least valuable defensive position, he's a pitcher, the most important defensive position, to replace Shohei in the lineup you need a pitcher that hits, like they all did in the NL. Replacement level hitting for Shohei Ohtani, is horrendous, batting sub 150avg etc. I think that would help quantify Shohei's value and unique skillset at least in the context of WAR.
Anyways, I think the TL:DR is that Bryce Harper's numbers are better, he gets +5.5 runs switching from DH to 1st base, and the added flexibility is assumed and baked into those numbers.
Finally, a post on the main channel
I love when Bailey uploads on his main channel
Love that you don't just throw numbers around. You truly have a data scientist mind ❤
I love how many “those throws” there are. Didn’t even include Ichiros throw Vs Oakland, Vlad Sr. Vs Toronto, and Cespedes Vs the Angels
Or Brantley in playoffs. Although that was more of a catch then throw I guess
more phillies videos! fantastic one, thanks for making it :)
Thats why you gotta love Bryce, he will do whatever he can to help the team win, including learning a new position overnight.
This might be the one time I’m rooting for a Philly team to win the title. I just want to see Harper, a guy who has really become one of the most likable players in baseball, win a title
I also think it helps Harper in the long term to play 1B. He can't field forever, but he definitely play until 40 at first. Ryan Zimmerman style, but with a bigger bat.
Foolish Bailey! Me and my group of friends did early season predictions with the 2023 season. A full scale in depth point system for all types of stats. HR/Hits/RBI leaders AL/NL. Strikeout leaders AL/NL, Division Champs, Wild card, WS teams, WS winner, Manger of the year, ROY, MVP, Cy Young the whole kitchen sink. We would love to share this with you if you are ever free and would like to included in a video maybe one day. We are all big fans of your channel and Atlanta Boys and Braves fans ourselves. Thanks for all the great content you make. GO BRAVES!
The throw that stuck with me from recent years has gotta be pitcher Vince Velasquez in the outfield during a position pitcher moment perfectly fielding the ball and throwing out Jose Abreu at the plate on one hop.
Bailey reminding us that the DH not only helps the offense by taking the pitcher out of the lineup, but helps the defense by taking guys like Schwarber out of the field
A team composed of designated hitters: No defense, just homers and vibes
Excellent writing Bailey
Nice, informative video. Thanks. Harper is the ultimate team player. The guy just wants to win, with every single thing that's all that's on his mind.
My outfield throw is Rick Ankiel in RF to Troy Glaus at 3B against the Rockies (twice in the same game if I recall correctly)
Roberto Clemente is an underrated defensive outfielder!
Is he lol? I think he's pretty widely considered one of the best right fielders ever with one of the best arms of all time
@@SilhouetteLifter Clemente was so good that you guys might both be right lol
So good. In fact, his name should be on something bigger than a bridge.
Random thought / question I had (which I thought you might be willing to explore): what would happen if Shohei, at least for the next couple years, converted into being a DH plus dedicated opener? Or perhaps even an opener plus 1B a la Harper??
I wonder how that would impact his value, especially if he were to join a team like the Phillies with roster construction limitations (eg Bryce moves back to outfield, want to keep Schwarber at DH as much as possible)
just type in "Jose Guillen's mutant throw from the warning track" it is the greatest throw from right field ive ever seen and it isnt even close
I came to the exact same final conclusion regarding WAR's positional adjustment while looking at Mookie Betts. Everything that applies to Harper being able to move to first is true for Mookie being able to play good second base, Heyward being able to play great right field, without sacrificing JD Martinez's DH spot or letting Heyward's glove or bat ride the bench
1:30 gotta include the Jose Guillen mutant throw from RF
-Mookie Betts throw to 3rd vs Arizona a few years back
-Cespedes from the warning track to home vs the Angels ~2010s
-Vlad Guerrero throw home vs the Mets in the late 90s
Dave Parker, 1979 All-Star Game at the Seattle Kingdome. And where is the Yoenis Cespedes throw from left field?
Main channel upload let's go!!!
I wonder what will happen when Rhys Hoskins comes Back. Does Harper go back to RF and move Marsh to LF. What happens to Castellanos then. Would he be a bench player or would he be traded. Or does Schwarber get traded and Harper becomes the DH. Definitely raises some questions that will have to be answered in the off season.
You love your mother
bailey as a phil’s fan this made me emotional
Lets go phils thank you fir doing a video on the phillies Bailey
Jose guillen from the wall is the throw I always think about.
I used to be the biggest Bryce hater but damn I respect him for sacrificing his stats so the team wins. He's really grown up a lot since coming into the league
This is damn good and almost should have been reformatted into a Baseball Bits. Tidy piece of content here, Bailey.
Rick ankiels throw. And Barry bonds. Love those two
I'm probably wrong, but I take issue with the values at the positional spectrum regarding first base and the corner outfield positions. I would think that 1B and the corners would be the same (say, -8). Whereas 1B is generally easier from an athletic point of view, the position is among the most involved on the field and has a considerable finesse requirement and teamwork factor (turning bad throws from teammates into outs, cleaning up bad throws, making double plays, etc), also, it is the other hot corner so they have to play balls hit to them as well. The corner positions have a higher athletic requirement, but they are much less involved and are mostly unable to help teammates. Anyway just my stupid thoughts.
The Yoenis Cespedes throw is definitely the first throw that comes to mind for me
hair is looking good king
Missed Yonies Cespides throw to home.
As a Pirate fan, nice to see Tony Womack on there
I think the adjustment is fine because not every lineup has a Schwarber that needs to DH. The positional adjustment has to consider the average jump from DH to 1B, not just the jump in this once scenario.
Johan Rojas’s defense reminds me Mike Cameron.
Im surprised i havent seen any mentions of rick ankiel for the throws i think about section
How do you have Schwarber's catch probability data on specific plays? Curious to see it for myself
scroll down on this page baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-schwarber-656941?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb
Apart from his poor defendive movement, how good or bad is his hose?
From the eye test as someone who's watched his games this season, he's innacurate and average on speed, more relays as a result rather than long throws. Good defensive shortstops and 2b make up for those relays.@@alexlackner1945
@@alexlackner1945He throws lollipops😂
@@Chooch4mvp haha
For outfield throws the first ones that come to mind for me are Rick Ankiel's canon shots. The one keeping Jordan Schafer at 3rd when he hit the catcher in the chest from center was amazing.
As for Harper he deserves all the credit for this. It's a selfless move and with Philadelphia losing Hoskins for the year they had a pretty big hole over there at first. Also for what it's worth it could add some years to Harper playing the field as he ages. It also keeps Bohm at third. All in all a win win for Philly it seems.
I'm sure Harper at first base is a lot better than Schwarber at first base, some of those plays in Boston were rough.
The manny machado throw from where the 3rd base coach stands
Are you gonna make a video on Cabrera?
kyle schwarber’s outfield defence must have been so bad that they’d rather harper learn a new position so that kyle schwarber wouldn’t need to defend anymore
It was really that brutal. Fans were questioning if Harper has to DH then Schwarber is probably best being a bench bat. You were able to see runs he was costing the Phillies in real time including an ugly game against the Braves where his defense was responsible for four runs allowed in the tenth inning. And then Kyle’s knee started to bother him so he got even slower.
@@freeparking301 that’s my point. harper learning a new position on the fly is better defence than schwarber who has been playing left field for most of his career 😄 I wonder how bad schwarber’s defence at catcher must have been for the cubs to move him off that position so early in his career
I think this gets to the main conceit with WAR, that a league average player is available at all positions at all time for teams to sub in. You have to play with the guys you got, and Harper should get major cred for making the Phillies lineup make more sense especially with the Hoskins injury.
"You ever just think about a throw..."
For me, that's Andy Van Slyke in Game 6 of the 1985 WS. Didn't get Sundberg out, but good Lord, was it ever a good throw, in an iconic ninth inning of an iconic series. (Can argue Porter wasn't positioned well too!)
I'm not telling Foolish anything he doesn't already know but this is more for the rest of us: Schwarber was also a career catcher at Indiana U, played LF for the Cubs occasionally until game 1 of 2016 tore his knee up in an outfield collision, making it back for the World Series shockingly. So he already wasn't an outfielder made worse by injury sadly. Probably still shouldn't be in the field in any capacity whenever possible, but it isn't his fault entirely
Wait your first name is Bailey too?! That’s awesome! I like you already! Lol
Bailey I think you’re forgetting Harper having to lob the ball around the infield between innings
I personally think about the Yoenis Cespedes throw often
Lol as a Phils fan I think a lot of the people questioning how Schwarber's WAR could be so low haven't been watching him play the field all season... it really was so bad that I can easily believe it negated most of his offensive value, easy outs turning into hits was pretty routine. Love Schwarb and glad he isn't sent out there in left to die every game anymore, our young outfielders have dazzled.
Another Foolish video? I'm there! It's about Bryce?! Dude I already said I'm there!
This really is a story about how contemporary metrics are just clearly better at exactly explaining why changes in lineup have the impact they do as compared to the eye test. I'd bet the eye test done by even some real baseball nerds would overestimate the individual value of Harper at 1B, underestimate the value of Rojas at CF, and rate the the net difference of Schwarber going from LF to DH as really positive and not basically undoing the negative value he had while at LF. The eye test isn't usually bad at getting the right valence, but the eye test is often quite bad at estimating magnitude.
Give me Jose Guillen's throw off the wall to 3rd any day. Just an insane throw.
Austin Jackson throwing out Kosuke Fukudome at home to end the game and keep Jose Valverde's perfect season alive is the one I always just think about. Det v Cle 8/21/2011
Cardinals did the same OF relay thing with Albert Pujols in the early 2000s
Unintended consequence of Harper learning first is that now Rhys Hoskins is likely out as 1B for the Phillies as he’s a free agent at the end of the year. Very tough decisions to be made by the front office. As a Phillies fan I love Rhys but idk if he comes back
why can't Bryce, with his newly healed UCL, move to the outfield again? I guess you already have Casty/Rojas/Marsh and don't really need Hoskins' bat with how well that roster can hit.
It's not healed, iirc he still wears the brace on base, and risking someone who throws as hard as him next season with another injury is a bad idea@@n8_n
@@n8_n he can! But if Schwarbwr DHs, marsh Rojas Castellanos Pache and harper will fight for 3 OF spots
@@JoeyNDot Pache shouldn't be starting games with his bat so I'd take him out of that, but yeah, agreed on the rest.
Crazy that Harper swings his bat so hard it caused his arm to start falling apart…hes the Jacob deGrom of hitting?
another note is what to do when rhys comes back. do they resign him if bryce can be league average+ at 1B? would bryce go back at RF (and casty has been more than serviceable)
good problem to have
I’m a Phillies fan and without the DH allowing Harper to hit they don’t make the wild card let alone a World Series run.
I don't closely follow the Phillies, I'm curious who was playing first when Harper was DH and how does that ripple play out?
It was a mix of Kody Clemens and Alec Bohm. Clemens didn't hit well so he was a dud. Bohm remains a fixture in the Phillies lineup, though more at 3B since Harper has been 1B. Edmundo Sosa was getting 3B starts when Bohm was at 1B.
0:25 my first appearance in a foolish baseball video for approximately 4 frames
38-19 in games Johan Rojas plays can just be a result of them leading most of the games they put him in. I'm curious their record in games he starts.
(I'm also fully prepared to cry Small Sample at the answer)
You didn’t calculate the rotational velocity of harper’s hair and how that can imbalance a first baseman’s ability to catch cross field throws.
You completely forgot about the Bo Jackson Vlad Guerrero Sr. and Yoenis Cespedes throws
As a loyal Phillies fan, I can fully support picking on Kyle Schwarber's defensive ineptitude.
Will you livestream the playoffs