One the most DIFFICULT SPOTS in Poker
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ค. 2022
- Nate calls in a hand today demonstrating one of the most difficult situations in NL Hold'em -- figure out the proper action when a scare card arrives on the river from out of position.
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I don't really understand why this spot is so difficult in theory, just emotionally these scare cards can cause bad decisions. It's a super polarized spot and it's just a pure range math problem at this point. With the pot odds I think it's just a straight up value jam.
The only very interesting thing about this hand is the weird turn sizing. As played, the river is a clear cut jam. The check through from KK with less than 1/3 SPR is a freaking disaster. The flop bet is worth discussing because you have to board so freaking crushed, but you really have no choice but to try to charge draws with the spades out there imo. Maybe a rainbow board you consider a check.
I think with so little back I might just put it in. I'd not be confident a 1/3 player will jam sets for value. I also think some people will get suspicious of hero's line when they jam river because most people would never play AA or KK that way so it may seem like AKss or just a bluff with a hand like AKo. Because of that i think get heroed light is actually possible, if villain has the last Q, KK. Any 2 pair+ hand i doubt would fold ever. Also when we have Qs we are gonna run into a lot less flushes which helps. And V having a bluff themselves when we check is very very hard.
Just put it in, if he has a set, he'll call, if he has KK or AA, he calls. Every once in a while he'll call with a random queen or JJ because he thinks you're bluffing. You have to X/C anyway when you get jammed on because he can shove worse for value, and he's never going to bluff you for 1/8 of the pot, so you might as well shove.
Perfect explanation- I agree 100
Basically more hands will call when you shove, but fewer hands will shove as the bluffs are taken out
Great call thanks for the content Bart
Recent subscriber here. Love your videos Bart. So informative 👍
How can you ever consider CHECK FOLDING the river here? the 3 combos of 88 alone are enough for me tp pile it in. If he has AKss, so be it. I think considering a check fold here is a total disater. Thankfully, he only lost the additional value he would have gotten from jamming river, and not the entire pot. getting 4 to 1 couldn't ever possibly imagine folding as played
I probably would’ve jammed turn to give spade draws a bad price to call
@@cameronandrew1853 I agree but it's totally player dependent. I think they never considered kq clubs and 3 off suit AQ, if they have those hands I like 300 turn jamming river, the kind of guy who flats the KK here preflop is either an OMC or a lag and those are 2 totally different ranges
Loose passive not lag
Check folding is dfaft,you might even get some nut turning a pair in to bluff
@@jamesmatthews8903 lap
I am all in on the turn.I can't handle the stress haha.
Yea so many cards that can give problems on the river,horrible scare cards.Why give a player great odds to outdraw if he does have a flush draw anyway?
@@Gos1234567 because villain does not have great odds with a flushdraw. You miss a lot of value when you shove on the turn and he folds.
My Live Play exploit of MOST low level tables is always to jam the river here and possibly (even likely) the turn (depending on villain type). The money is already in the pot. I'd change based on Effective stacks are larger, but in this scenario, there is almost no way all the money isn't in the pot. If s/he has Spades, I'm beat.
I actually think it's a pretty trivial spot if you think it through. I get it, in the moment that river feels like just about the worst card possible but the villain is just way too skewed to hands that you can get value from.There's a lot of people that either don't 5! or barely 5!, even with aces and kings. To make this a tough spot you'd have to think villain is open calling cold 4bets with the 3better behind him with a ton of suited connectors.
I mean, it’s a pretty GD bad card but with your weird turn sizing and the 88s and Kks out there you’re never folding so you might as well go for value vs what you beat. There are literally zero bluffs that make any sense in villains line.
@@adamseidel9780 except he was folding
for me this is pretty simple: i feel like im priced in at like 4.5 to 1 if villain jams. since theyre gonna have a lot of hands that will crying call getting such a big price that theyll certainly check behind with its an easy river jam for me.
now the question is why hero is so confident in a fold. id have to have a pretty solid read on a 1/3 opponent to fold getting such a good price. its true that there just arent a lot of river bluffs in these games and its hard to think of a hand villain could even have to turn into a bluff to begin with. but even if theyre never 'bluffing' could they be occasionally betting a hand for value that we beat? we only have to be good here, what, like 20-25% of the time?
Even me being a bad player, I'm shoving on the river 100% of the time.
Yeah this guy probably is better than me but I would just think if he has it he has it.
I'd outplay you so easily
I feel like jamming the turn makes the most sense to me. You’ll get called by worse sets, KK or AA (if they decided not to 5 bet preflop) and probably AQ. Jamming for 1.25x pot gives the draws the mathematically incorrect price to call, and while you could argue that players at 1/3 might not be thinking that way, I’m not so sure. There are definitely decent players who understand that when you over bet pot they would need to hit more than 33% of the time, and their flush draw is only about 20%. Same goes for pocket nines that flopped 2nd pair and called once because they didn’t believe you, then turned open ended. And if they do call with a draw, we’re totally fine with that because we’re way ahead. Jamming prevents from having to navigate the awkward river spot when the spade does roll off. Sure it sucks when they call and show AK of spades and we lose, but we got all the money in when we were 80% to win and that’s all we can ask for.
I feel in live settings and in todays poker environment, you will tend to see, especially at lower stakes, more calls on 3 & 4 bets with suited connectors (4/5- 9/10).
I think the 7 is actually more relevant than thought, especially if ANY # drops on the River.
Amen brother, crazy to think villian can't get here with 9/10 spades.
Have to agree with so many others who have commented here. I don’t see anything all that complicated or interesting about this hand other than the turn bet decision/sizing by both players. Hero has to be aware of SPR when he bets turn. And villain not jamming turn is just dreadful. The river is a non issue. I mean you lose to like 2 combos? Put the money in.
Hi Bart. Really enjoy your analysis and appreciate the content. I understand your reasoning as played however i were the hero here, I would you be moving in on the turn. Draws are going to call (I think, anyway) and sets are going to call and overpairs likely will call, especially Aces with a spade. This charges the draws gets paid by inferior holdings whether or not a scare card arrives AND eliminates incorrect decisions by the hero on the river. Would you ever take a similar line? Thanks!
Good call, good caller. Definitely feels like jam > check-fold > check-call
The question is, can villain put us on AQss 4 betting from sb. If we're not seen as nitty I think we have to bet bigger and get the money in by turn.
What is the solver they mention?
Respect to caller for admitting he’d check fold that river
What was the program they were talking about? They can check on a lock or something???
In real-time I liked the flop bet size. But given the awkward turn, now it seems best to just go $250 on flop. Then you have an easy jam on turn. What do you think?
Same here; imho bottom-line should be at the very least 140-150 on the flop, - obv for the sole reason to get a better SPR on the turn.
250 may be a tad too big,, all things considered, though.
Geo Geo Geo
Does anyone know what live poker app they were talking about the caller used to find out what they should do? It sounds like love poker log or lock to me.
Node
Just jam turn. He’s not folding AA/KK which it seems like he’s really weighted towards given he opened UTG and called a cold 4!, and called a flop cbet.
Almost all would 5 bet with AA and probably with KK as well. Tho some would call the 4 bet to fade an Ace on the flop before committing.
If you want to jam the turn on a brick, you should have bet slightly bigger on the flop. Even just 175 would have made this a pot size shove on the turn.
Because hero bet smaller on the flop, I think Bart is right that a 1/4th pot bet makes more sense than a 1/2 pot bet or a shove for slightly more than pot.
Barts either been up all night snorting rails, or he has a new born.
not rails...
Those two things are not mutually exclusive
@@ilikepeanuts7396 lmao!!! What about snorting new borns?
This is pretty spooky, i had this exact hand in a tournament yesterday in the casino in stockholm, altough it was 3 handed and the guy with Kings was all in preflop, i had 1010 with a spade and my opponent had QQ, its the exact same board, suits and all.
I Shoved the river as a bluff, i put him on exactly queens and were trying to get him off them, he tanked for 2 minutes and called.
You put him on queens and shoved? Lol
@@nikiyubari8410 as a bluff obviously
@@nikiyubari8410 Ehm yeah? its the scariest board ever for Queens, he only beats a bluff, im not valuejamming river with a set or two pair on a fourliner and a flush out there.
I was refreshing TH-cam until this came up 😂😂
I couldn’t catch what he was saying he referred to about his play, was it some poker app called: “live no look”?
Yeah a poker app, "live node lock" I think.
it's not an app per se. "node lock" is a switch you turn on in solvers to freeze a strategy, which is what they conceptually did in the discussion. a "live node lock" means you know for sure what villain is going to do.
What about the straight on the board too?
It's a 4 bet pot there almost no straights that should be in the 4bet pot the only one who could even have it. Was the 3rd guy to just come along.
Hero's situation is trivial compared to villain's situation. If I'm the villain, I minraise the flop and evaluate how hard hero starts breathing. If hero doesn't reraise or hyperventilate, I start figuring out which street I want to take the pot down on if he switches to fearful pot control mode.
Even before river I was questioning why not to jam the turn. You're crushing everything except flush and straight draws. Jamming might get suited spades like AKs, JTs, or T9s to call still for pot sized bet with so much already in. JJ-99 might even still call if he thinks you missed and you have all the other sets crushed.
Just noticed this was four bet pot not three bet...might take away more suited combos away from villains range. Even 99 is on the edge especially with LJ to act behind UTG....so this line is not as scary as first thought. It all comes down to how wide UTG can call a four bet with LJ to act still.
I remember this hand. It was against Zach right?
Check call... on the river. However should have shoved on the turn IMO.
Your making the river more complicated than it needs to be. Caller said 2 combo's of spades. If he ever cold calls a mid pair or KK its an easy river shove.
For a moment there I thought that this caller was going to check fold 😒
what is a node lock?
Pio solver
either jam turn or bet and check call river.
I’d jam preflop lol
Whats this Note Lock/Locking that the caller refers to?
Not sure myself but I think it is a HUD app where you can put in the board and your hand and it will give you statistical data on the best action to take from a database of I'm guessing all possible combinations the villian might have?
Personally I think all phones and devices should be banned from the tables, they are here in the UK.
"node lock". no one is using an app at the table here (though it's is a solver concept), it just means put the villain on a hard strategy, i.e. shove flush; check everything else.
@@denjunki Thanks for clearing that up, I have heard that players do use statistical apps at the tables in the U.S though so I thought that might be one of those
@@Bhodisatvas i haven't personally seen anything like that, but I'm a low stakes rec player. I think RTA would be against most casino rules.
Given that this was a 4bet pot preflop, it seems like a jam on the turn would still yield a call. AA with A of spades, and KK with K of spades are likely calling a turn jam, no? Those hands + AsJs, and AsKs are basically the hands you're targeting after the flop, aren't you? (and potentially smaller sets).
I played 12 hands in 3 hours lastnight. Won 5.. all huge pots for 1-3.. straight flush the villian had the ace high flush and didn't go all in when I raised him ;(
He was gunna check/fold 🤣. Imagine dude jams 88 and he folds QQ lmao
I’m shoving the river here 100% of the time. Since the hands that beat you are going all in here and you have to call getting such a good price, you might as well take the initiative and not let worse hands check back.
why are so many people responding with "since you have to call a river bet anyway..." when the caller clearly stated he was folding to a river shove???
@@moaf2padventures757 cause it’s a mistake to fold there
@@Zach-tf2qu lol i feel like youre not really following the discussion.
Kings, AQ, or spades as soon as he called flop. A10ss, j10ss, 910ss. Unless he’s out to lunch with 910dd specifically? Just jam turn imo rather than basically giving him odds to draw (cause he’ll get rest of money when he hits and fold when misses). Otherwise ya might as well jam river unless you can check fold..
check/fold after river.
Villian's range is really only KK and AsKs. Easy river bet losing to just 1 combo in a bloated pot.
Right
The fact that some people consider check folding this river gives me huge hopes for my future sessions! And I'm not trying to be a jerk by saying this , it's a fact
I think jam turn. You are happy to fold out spades, and 88 or AA are welcome to call…
I play at the same casino. There are very soft games there. Sure they get lucky with q6 off in a 3 bet pot but mostly a bunch of limping.
Just get it in on the riv.
AA/KK will check behind, but will call riv bet.
node-locking a MW 4bp? lol sounds like a high accuracy and precision solve
What is it? App?
I think I jam turn.
I agree I'm jamming or 2/3 on the turn.
SPR about 1:1 ( or close), I always jam on the turn. At these low stakes, I find people will call a lot wider. A lot of times I see players will call with nut flush draws, combo draws, pair with flush draws (which we blocked), 7x of spades and occasionally they will call with 99 thru JJ
Jam on the turn 💯
If you give him 88, he also can have 99 for the straights on top of the flushes. Is it really reasonable to assume that he calls the cold-4 with hands like AJs, 88 or 99 as the initial open raiser for 125-12=113 with the risk of having the "bullshit" 3-bettor putting in a 5-bet? Especially on 1-3?
You played live low stakes lately? I’ve seen them show up with deuces in this spot pre and shove the flop, no lie. Extreme scenario but live low stakes is a joke in most cases.
Normally I would bet small OTF and turn to keep these guys in. But this is 1/3. I want to setup for a turn shove. They just won't fold to 1 bet with JJ or TT here. They will also call that 4b with 88, AKss, AJss, and even ATss. KK is NEEEEVER folding here either and that's 6 combos.
They literally don't understand odds for set mining and when it is multiway they look at more dead money on the table. If you offer 8:1 they call not realizing they need ~10:1 to break even on set mining.
I would have bet $300 OTF, 1 call, pot it now $759 and I have ~$600 left. Sure JJ/TT folds but hands like AKss or ATss won't fold because they have a FD + over. A set is stacking off anyways.
But these are my games at the Hard Rock in Florida. They just don't fold so why bet small?
How bad is it to check turn then bet pot AI on river? Letting a FD see a free turn only costs you the pot about 22% of the time (and there are only 3 of them AK,AJ.JT) and when a blank comes on the river a lot of players might call with any pair 99+ and AQ which are his most likely range as played. KK and AA only have 2 outs and it balances the way you would play AK. Anyone?
IMO jamming turn is horrible
Jam River
Villain should've folded his KK on the turn
Could’ve gotten it in on the turn, he was never folding kings on that board.
right and since we knew he had kings we should have just jammed it all in.
All in on the flop
With pot size here is folding ever an option? I just can't find a fold here even to a check, jam, also the other thing you have to figure is he has something and odds are he isn't folding either just get the money in.
imagine he actually got pushed off this pot 😂.
I like a larger bet on the turn... You leave yourself 400 and what happens when the spade hits the river?? I would make him pay on the turn..
@@aheroictaxidriver3180 your right... I'm talking about this particular situation.. he is gonna continue with ALOT of the hands he gets there with so why not tax him???
What I really don't get... is why this opponent does not just jam KK for 395 more on the turn.... that being said the hero River jam makes even more sense since he can have that hand
So he'll jam River with Kings but check back a set? Not sure
"How do you feel about the size"?
😏
Most $1/$3 Villians are NOT jamming anything but a straight or flush here, and checking back even sets
They should also be jamming any blocks they have but I can’t think of any is the problem.
Especially at Hard Rock in Cincinnati in that 1-3 player pool.
If they were deeper I think this would be more difficult/interesting
I agree with Bart on the turn he needs to either take a larger sizing (probably all in)or a smaller sizing to give him a bigger river shove.
I'm a simpleton, I just jam turn.
Stacks should have gone in pre
Sometimes there is no right answer. With this hand you just lose sometimes
(please read complete before trolling?)
This is an auto shovel @ River because 6s7s ISN'T even possible by the river reveal (6s), so of the 20 hands that make it to see the river, only 3 beat hero? 6.6/1 makes this an autojam, villain is getting laid too good of a price after turn call to not call with worse (17 hands hero beats). It's spots like this where one has the fish hooked, you gotta drag it in the boat, to maximize LT EV. Does one occasionally lose to 3 hands? Yes. But all the charts and solvers in the world don't include undermaximizing one's winnings ...and when one doesn't maximize their best hands, that has the real-life effect of lowering the overall effective EVs clear across the whole chart/analysis...
Moral? Don't be afraid to value own one's self, an extra 400 when the ratio is 3 out of 20 W, and only risking 40% more (last of stack) to pick up an additional 400.
Keep in mind the V was not a complete dork (he's up 600+, @ 1/3?) AND? As2s, As3s and As4s we'd of heard from @ the flop 3 way, 100%. Hence only 3 hands of 20 see the river given action...
But everyone do what they want 👍👍
2- it's a tough, but when one removes the emotion (hope, sad, confident, scared, tired mad, frustrated, etc...) and focuses on shooting for best analysis and best decisions... everyone reduces tells. It our emotions that are the root of Worst tells. Being an unfeeling machine @ the table will lend itself to maxing win rates. Scared will not. Ever.
If a player calls a 4bet at 1/3, it’s KK QQ JJ 1010 99 or AK. That’s it
You just have to shove the turn..... no questions about it just shove. You cannot let another card come out for a cheap price relative to the pot. Plus only leaving 400 behind is ridiculous.
Yes that’s what I was thinking...on turn you have an SPR of 1. Betting half leaves you with very awkward sizing on river
@@scottyrabbit yup.... you can't just strictly be gto.... you gotta mix gto with some old school poker as well to really be at the top of the game. You can't always go by what the book says, sometimes the book is wrong.
@@sneakkyz3696 totally agree. I think hero was overthinking this spot. AA, KK, Axs is calling off, and all the other trips. This is a clear and easy decision on the turn. When I seen the SPR, I was scratching my head as to why there would be any other decision made.
i jam the turn here all the time. make him pay to see that river spade if he is on a draw...is that a flawed thinking to have?
Jamming turn is obviously +EV since you have the effective nuts, so any time you get called you’re ahead.
But you shouldn’t really be jamming to make him fold a spade draw. You want spade draws to call since they’re way behind.
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj always wary of the draw there. they will miss most times, though. i will try to switch up and see the results.
How could the guy have a set in a pre flop 4 bet with this board texture ? Come on Bart really
1-3 never gets this big
I see nothing wrong with check check. You don’t always have to take it all. This guy is a calling station, you can still get the money later as e reloads. Many times when a player loses everything at once, they walk away to find a different table.
I shove the flop and avoide this. It's 4bet. It is likely someone calls with kk or aa.
ROFL pure Rang check on flop. Pretty much standard to actually bet entire range in 4 bet pot for 1/3 or 1/4 sizing. Must have been trolling
Ugh 😩
I was in a similar spot as villain and lost the hand by not exploiting the opportunity to push hero off the better hand on the river.
Check fold? Shit id just open fold...why waste time checking?
Jam all day. Think back, he called a 4 bet pre, so AJ spades is even more unlikely. You really only lose to specifically AK spades. Way too scared to be check/folding here. If he has a bizarre 9 or Ax spades, so be it. Mental note guy is crazy for the future and move on.
If there's ONE flop to check, it's this one. It's super dry, you're blocking everything. You have to check it. Also this weird SPR occured precisely because you double barreled flop+turn. If you bet this turn it's allin or nothing. However , I'd have excluded KK from his range, cause for me it's almost Always a 5-bet in this particular case. Nice hand anyway
1-3 games never get this big. Nonsense.
this is overthinking and giving your competition 2 much credit. bet the river 100% I don't even think it's close
There's nothing to think about. Rip that shit and pray he doesn't have spades. You're never folding and there are still enough hands you beat. This is definitely a scenario where the pot is too large to get away.
he was prepared to fold for $400 into a pot of $1800.........
@@seanm6767 there's a 0% chance I fold here. There are always given scenarios that call for a hero fold but this isn't it. If you jam and lose, God bless take the money.
why are so many people responding with "since you have to call a river bet anyway..." when the caller clearly stated he was folding to a river shove???
How the hell is this a hard sport…… You flopped top set in a 4 bet pot lol
You jam there obviously
If u check fold this spot learn a different hobby
There is no way he calls the $400 on the river . How does the hero not have spades, Aces, or any sets