The OVERBET BLUFF - HIGH STAKES POKER TAKES with Daniel Negreanu 02
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 มี.ค. 2022
- We're back with another hand breakdown from the newest season of High Stakes Poker airing exclusively on PokerGO. This season we battle against Phil Ivey, Tom Dwan, Patrick Antonius, and Doyle Brunson. In the hand we discuss how range advantage can impact your bluff bet sizing, enjoy!
1:50 Preflop
3:52 Flop
5:58 Turn
7:39 River
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Don't do this at your local 1/2 game, they will call with the 3 of spades here
I'm guessing u don't realize that would be a $180 river bet at $1/2. They're folding the J of spades. And 3. Problem is ur not listening to his bet sizes and reasons. $1/2. Make it $8 pre. $8 on flop. $24 on turn. $180 on River. Ur prob not even deep or effective enough to make these bets.
You mean they'll call you down with Tc7h here
More true online they would push all in and then throw a stupid object thinking they are the greatest in the world
Exactly
@@sekaikage I'm sorry most here don't understand the fundamentals of poker, $1/2, and should never be taught anything n continue to lose $. My bad. I'm calm. Namasay
Next time I'm calling!! Jokes aside, good Analysis. I really enjoy watching you break down the hand, helps me and others to learn how to think at the highest level poker games 😊
Next time he has the K of spades
Kim you donk, CALL THIS D NEGS..... :D IS THIS A FOLDING STREAM?
Lol get in Kim
Next time hit him with a DING DING!!!
absolute legend kim
I love that they got Phil Ivey in shot trying to decipher where Daniel was at towards the end. Phil Ivey truly is a god tier player
I swear in every clip I’ve seen he’s always intensely analyzing players even though he’s folded
Phil is at the top for sure. Very top.
@@TerrorismSucksPPs not anymore not in no limit hold’em. In fact in good high stakes no limit games phil Ivey, who was once the God in this scenario, is now the spot.
@@TheTree1 I wonder if the stakes are too low compared to Macaa and he's bored, he's a mix player n mainly short deck lately n bored with hold em, or knows he can't win so acts bored n plays super tight to not look bad. He really looks like he wasn't trying at Hustler etc Dwan still finds ways to try so it's interesting for sure.
Some would say the GOAT
20 years later and I'm still following you playing poker! Crazy to think that I saw you on TV and built a poker table to practice your hands back around the year 2000 and now I'm watching all your TH-cam videos still trying figure out how you do it.
He should be called Daniel “The Wizard” Negreanu. Forget kid poker
I absolutely love watching you play. One of the few players to grow up in the pre-solver era that was able to adapt so well in the new age of poker. Truly the best of both worlds.
Kid hair transplant thinks he is superior to everyone in reality he is just 5'7 clown who isn't funny ...
Awesome series, thanks for making these, Daniel!
Awesome video Daniel. Thanks for the breakdown of "range advantage". I just call it "continuing my story" but the way you broke it down let's me realize I have more than just one story I could be telling if i assess ranges for myself more thoroughly. Cheers!!
So hard for Kim to call there…Just another perfectly executed series of bets from Daniel…Excellent learning curve for Kim albeit an expensive one
Coming back to poker after 12 years, it's interesting to see that Daniel finally decided to fix the physical tells he used to give out. Such a different posture from the early seasons of hsp.
Love the content Daniel! Legend
Wow Daniel!! I learned a lot from you on this break down. You are a rockstar man.
You should keep your eyes on Ivey in the last part. How he is seriously scanning the situation. GOAT
thanks for the video .great stuff especially as i watch kim s slot stream made it such fun
Love your content. It totally looked like a straight flush, you making a set on 4th street or getting a boat/having the king of spades with your betting. This was awesome in so many ways! Danke, brother D-Negs!
I thought it looked like he was telling the story he thinks he's up against Ks and wants to get paid making the Js shrivel up like my balls in snow
You really have a picture of yourself on display. So humble.
Daniel Negreanu really is the best thing that could happen to Poker. Thank you.
Nice hand! Thanks for doing these.
Thank you Daniel. Im 20 years old and was able to watch your masterclass and read your books four years ago. Im just now really getting started with piosolver and i am very passionate. I appreciate all the wisdom you share for free. Hopefully one day I can play against you!
I started watching him and studying his hands over 20 years ago. Lol. Man that makes me feel old that his new fans weren't even born yet when I started watching him.
@@stevenwilson8718 Crazy man, truly insane how much poker has changed over the last 20 years. D negs has picked up some new tricks! Best of luck sir!
@@yungbreezyatl you too! I still enjoy playing with friends but definitely not good enough for any real money. Hopefully you can get there !
@DNegs, Thanks for the analysis. I totally agree with your description of using theory combined with using physical tells. I only wish I could do it as well as you.
I do have one issue, however, with your theory on this play. I've watched many videos by you and others where you do arrive at the river with a hand that is the effective nuts, such as if you had the straight flush or else had AA that filled up on the river. When you are in that situation, you never seem to make this overbet. Instead, you are asking, "What hands am I targeting with this bet? If I make a big overbet, then am I hoping that a Js is going to call? No, very likely he won't. So I'm specifically targeting the Ks or maybe the Qs, but I would have heard from them on the turn, or I'm targeting smaller boats, which likely would have folded the turn. Therefore, a big overbet makes no sense. I'm only going to get called by a boat or better, which I can't really put him on."
So my point is, I agree with the polarizing overbet here, and that you need some bluffs in that range. However, I never see you using it when you do have the value part of the range, which means that your overbet range is bluff-heavy, or even bluffs only. I'm waiting to see you arrive at this river with the straight flush and see you say, "I'm going to overbet here, knowing that only boat or quads will call, because I have to balance the bluffs I would have when I get here with 6d4d." Am I just not watching enough videos?
It's probably just sample size. There's not that many spots where you end up on the river with the nuts and the betting progressed in a way that allows you to make this play. Like if Daniel had flopped a straight flush here and thought his opponent was weak, maybe he doesn't barrel 3 streets because he wants to trap. If he has the K of spades, and is nutted on the turn then he can't really make that play on the river because he loses to boats but still have really strong showdown. So his overbet value range narrows down to boats / quads.
The same can be applied to other hands where someone has the nuts on the river, but the way the hand was played doesn't really accommodate making a huge overbet play.
Another thing is selection bias. A big overbet bluff play will always get clipped / reviews / TV time whether or not you get called. If you make this play with the nuts and everyone folds then it's not really news worthy and often won't get recycled into the secondary media. Even if you get called it's not as good of a headline (guy makes the nuts and gets paid) just not the same as a big bluff.
Yea, I think Daniel's analysis is slightly off tbh. He acknowledged that villain seemed nervous and even the commentators picked up on it. The villain therefore likely has an "I don't want to lose half my stack and look a jackass against a pro player" mindset. In that respect, I think Daniel knows that he may need to throw out a value bet (or even a check raise!! He could have, for example, pretended that he was respecting the possibility that villain had like A6 when he had a flush) on the river IF he had a nuts hand, otherwise a smaller flush (like with what actually happened) doesn't pay him off! So I'm not convinced that Daniel's range after a river overbet is as wide as he suggests tbh; not against this player at least. The psychological analysis is therefore slightly lacking. When I used to play poker (lower stakes! Never been a pro but good on game theory and made a respectable amount of money), this was usually a snap call scenario IF we didn't have much playing history, because the first instance of an overbet like this is more often than not the bluff.
As a side note, it's a bit of a meme bet in a way... made all the more sweeter with Doyle Brunson being there! I only heard the line from the film Rounders, but apparently it was Doyle who said it. But it is "The key to No-Limit... is to put a man to a decision for all his chips." - and that's sort of what Daniel did on the end, only slightly less brutal. Daniel is basically asking the question, "can you live with just 1 leg?", and it's a bit of a tough question.
@@Shmeeps_phd Good point on selection bias. Thanks for the reply.
If he had AA and put opponent on Ks he makes the over bet. That allows him to overbet bluff the same range he can have when his opponent has Js. If he really puts opponent on Ks he doesn't bet this unless he has a boat. So he's balanced here with boats and bluffs but his opponent isn't, making the bet work. He makes it look like he's trying to get paid from the nut flush which makes the Jack shrivel. Opponent is only positive ev calling with top of his range here bc of overbet which doesn't include Js and he can only make it bc he exploiteded thinks he's not up against Ks. The analysis you're talking about previously is just based on theory where he specifically mentions this was based on theory and a read. Justin theory he wouldn't make this bet, he wouldn't even make it if it was just against Doyle. It was exploiting with theory, which is much rarer to have both in his favor.
@@stevesteve788 I'm just thinking about it in terms of Daniel reading weakness in the OP... It seemed like Daniel had him on a Js sort of hand. IF the villain was slightly better then he would ask the question, "if Daniel is putting me on a Js how does he expect to be paid with such a large bet?". That kind of thought process can lead to the idea that, if you think that Daniel views you as a weaker player, Daniel will almost never have AA in that spot because Daniel will not expect you to find a call when you hold a Js flush. So he MIGHT have a super-polarised range of either nuts or bluff, and with you sort of ruling out the nuts a hero call may be warranted. The amount of times I've caught bluffs like this when new to a poker table in a casino lol, because your opponents don't give you credit. The only time it gets tricky is when you know that Daniel knows that you're a thinking player, in which case he CAN overbet the river with AA. But against this specific villain, Daniel rarely has AA IMO.
Savage! Thanks for the analysis
The entire video is worth it just for the shot of Ivey giving Daniel that look when he raises in the very beginning.
Your hair turned out soo damn good! It’s crazy how natural it looks !
Awesome stuff!!
wonderful punishment of the preflop calling. Hero Dnegs
Great video, thanks
I always enjoy your hand breakdowns. Would you have attempted the bluff if Doyle had stayed in?
Hultman''s flop call was a big mistake. He absolutely should've raised full pot it isolate someone. Flop comes the flush, he's against 2 players and there's only 10k in pot.
Love this new content un the Chanel, wow
need more of this goat
So sick.. King of poker!
Nice vid. 🔥
Beautiful explanation
Hey Daniel! I ordered modern poker & play optimal poker 1&2. Do you think those are good starters for understanding GTO? I have watched a ton of your stuff and understand it at a basic level but am wanting to understand it in depth to raise my game.
Would you still have overbet the river since you had the live read if the river came something like 5d?
A great bluff!! I had basically the same hand in diamonds. It came to the river, I had the king of diamonds, bet big, the villain called with the Ace of diamonds. He slow played it to the end. I’m still licking my wounds.
That's nothing at all like this hand lol wtf
And betting 2.5x with second nut flush is a horrible bet. Horrible. Ur only getting called by Ad n folding n value u could get from Qd Jd etc. And u don't block any boats but I'm guessing the board prob wasn't even paired
Good point that the commentator made about the board pairing and Daniel still betting heavy
Wow excellent hand Daniel
Top of the line
Kid Poker is great
Good video. Question I have is would you bet so much if you had it? Wouldn't you want to get paid? This might make me call vs a pot sized bet. Also, what was the physical tell you mentioned? Can you share it with us?
big ups to Mr Hultman for competing with the worlds best players
Get in mate 😊
Unreal play
Nice vid! Would be nice if you could tell a word about whether you would have called as Hultman. Not only explaining why you took that line
Daniel, the problem with saying that we are all wrong about you not having a full house or quads is that it doesn't matter what your actual range is, it matters what your opponent perceives it to be. You know your opponent better than we do but if many of us think you wont have a full house, then wouldn't many of your opponents think that as well?
Daniel to pokerGO: “By the way, 15 seconds into your ad I’m gonna say ‘diet cheese or some shit.’ That cool with your marketing team?” 🤣
13:20 Speaking of picking up on every little detail. Check out Phil Ivey trying to read Daniel. Trying to understand every little flinch of his face so he can use it later. Pretty intense.
what's the name of that song at the end
Legend.
Well done good sir
It’s very interesting to see these hands explained, but we all know that these tactics ONLY work at a level high enough where people care about not losing a lot of money. At low stakes poker, at least from what i’ve seen in my 14 years playing on Pokerstars, someone would always call with the J of spades there 😂
if people are over calling, just have 0 bluffs in your range and bet all value hands
That's why this show is called High Stakes Poker.
Crushing low stakes online poker is fairly easy. Play tight, premium hands, bet big when you have it, check/fold when you don't. Be patient until you can build the bankroll to sustain bigger stakes.
When you do it, go to your nearest casino and start playing 1-3 or 2-5. You need around $5000-6000 (for 1-3) or around $10000-12000 (for 2-5) bankroll to play comfortably.
Of course, the level there is still not as high as HSP, but it is high enough for you to be able to start using the advanced theory knowledge and more nuanced play you picked up, thus making poker more enjoyable to play.
If you are truly a talented player and can crush these stakes too, well, it is decision time - consider switching to being pro or not.
And yes, don't play mid/high stakes online poker. Go live. First of all, it is much more fun. Secondly, it is only a matter of time when people will start cheating with solvers which will endanger your money. If they haven't already.
I really enjoy your analysis videos. Just a quick question that intrigues me: why do you refer to yourself in third person? "We decide to raise...." for example. Just curious 🙂
I like your analysis videos, would love to see you do a hand where you play it wrong. Even DNegs can make mistakes
I think Gabe made a good point in saying the board was paired and the overbet didn't make sense. We aren't playing omaha but still applies in this situation.
Mister Dingsum ! Don't be scared of us canadians we don't bite to often 😉 haha great analysis of hand a real tough spot
Wild how in his Tom Dwon all in with Kings he’s in the same position fingers on his cards. Guys always playing angles they know every tell.
Nice plugs
What was the physical read?
Nice bluff and he is new playing against u
When a bluff works its a good play,life can be simple
Where can I buy his glasses
Daniel, I think that if your bluffing range at the river is way smaller than your value range, than you should bet smaller. If your bluffing range is larger than you should bet big. I'm assuming an opponent that folds to a bet with probability directly proportional to the size of the bet, i.e. the larger the bet the more likely he/she going to fold. Don't you agree?
Slot streamers typically make their money by playing with bonus/comped funds by the platform provider in exchange for exposure and new sign-ups. Slot machines are not a long term winner, they will on average retain 8% of all wagers over their lifecycle
Me watching high stakes poker makes me dream that maybe we will bring back the big game
Why can’t he have queen of spades, I find it hard to understand why people can or can’t have certain cards, is there a good reference I can read up on on readin ranges and understanding your own, thanks!
are you betting with intention exactly the half of his stack on the river ?
The other guy's perspective was more interesting.
- Were you really bombing a set on the turn?
- Would you really value bet the Q or K high flush on the river, and in that way?
Good read to keep on firing against him though. It worked.
I don't think you ever overbet that river with the Q or K of spades. Half pot sets on the turn is reasonable for reasons he explained. But if you can eliminate Qs and Ks from Daniel's overbet range. it does put you in a pretty tough stop on the river. you'd almost rather have Doyle's hand in this spot to call down xD
Kim is a FISH. Hampus would have snap called that bluff. Negreanu just makes himself look so good against fish KIM. hampus for next high stakes POKERGO!!!!
Ask Hampus how he did in our homegame yesterday 😁
@@LetsGiveItASpinTV yes. You owned him. Lol.
Nevertheless. I think hampus is still a better poker player.
A bit cringe that mate
Get in Kim!!!! Ding ding ding
I guess since you put it like that I’ll buy it
Sometimes i give up value for the nutted overbet bluff. If i have the nuts i try to make it look like a bluff, they usually fold, but the next time when im actually bluffing i make it look like a value bet and they fold too.
I dont see any solver betting sets OTT bluffs are hands with big spade and huge checking. you just did magic and it worked.
Tough one.
Cherry picks the one hand where your bluff worked. Makes a video explaining how you’re a genius in poker. Lol. Just checked how you were doing in the last seasons of high stakes poker combined and you’re down over 2 million dollars, by FAR the most out of anyone
Hey its poker, its either your opponent call or not. Either way its our action that matters put pressure on opponent when the opportunity is right the result is irrelevant
POWER CHANEL BAMMM!
Danny pretty much knows your two hole cards, even before you do. Not only have Ive seen him call opponents two hole cards example being 7-8, he called 7-spades,8-spades, before turn card was displayed. Called nurmeric card symbol, also suit within both hole cards.
The commentator made a good point... it's a bit suspicious betting on the river given that the board paired. So the story is either a full house or bluff no?
Phil Ivey always seems to know when Daniel is bluffing…that look though
Why does no one in the comments saying this doesn't work lower stakes like $1/2 not realize they're betting $10 pre. $20 flop. $40 turn. And $80 on river. Not $8 pre. $10 flop. $25 on turn. $180 river. That betting pattern gets Js to fold. Big difference between $80 and $180. And good chance ur not deep or effective enough to do so. Percent of people bluffing $180 on river after $25 on the turn is like 5% or less.
The way DAniel thinks about his hand is the way my EX wants to talk to me on why I don't want to go to church on Sundays
If Kim spent less time in Deja Vu and more time playing poker…
Hahaha
Is Bovada poker or any online poker legit now in the US?
Ivey knew:D
You represent boat, nuts. Value hands that wants to be called and win against opponents bluff catch flashes( thats where we all put them) : 7s8s,66,A6s,99,TT,AA. Thats 13 value combos. Considering you offer opponent (57+36):57 odds, or 1,63:1 or 38%. To match the odds you offer with the bluff to value ratio,for the indifference to the gto perspective, you need 8 combos of bluffs, which the best are 9Ts(3), A9s(3) and AT(3). Those bluffs are the best candidates and are more than enough and what you need. So this was a great play but an exploit to the opponent and on the overbluffing side.
Especially phil he’s looking staring at the both of u
Since i can see the cards, i woulda raised the turn if i was holtzman, ida rasised it if i couldn't see them too.
I love Daniel but I love mr it’s a ding dingggggg more lul - imo it was a decent bluff but very unnecessary to be involved after that flop in the first place - Kim could easily have a set of 9s and 10s and play it the same exact way only thing he might do differently is raise flop maybe ? Big risk by Daniel to win so little on the hand imo but I guess he knows what he’s doing !! Get in !
I'd have called ONLY on the off-chance you were bluffing. I'd look like a genius.
If you call there, you are wrong, you win, but you are wrong, lmao
I don't know. Based on Doyle folding on the turn i might have shoved
13:11 Ivey and Aldemir are very suspicious
Strong pre flop bet, i wouldve put you on pockets kings with a king of spades...or complete air.
The other thing is that people know dan just loves suited connectors, i mean who doesn't right? But doyle especially knows dan will play the little ones, that board coulda really hit dan hard.
You can have any hand and you clearly do have any hand your bluffing here so your bluffing range is sizeable.
i think he should have called,because daniel had to be bluffing there at some point in the hand...either when the flush was possible/probable,or on the river...
Ivey over there looking at Daniel like a hawk for tells, Ivey would have called that large river bet 💯 of the time
The problem here Daniel is that you would never have bet less than 25% of the pot on the flop with Ks or set, you were lucky your opponent didn't seem to consider that in the end. You also give your own tells when you're bluffing. Not anymore as much as 10+ years ago, but they are still there.
All this analysis means a lot to someone like Ivey or Brunson or Dwan or Patrick. But I am 100% that the slot machine gambler did not think about all these when he folded. He just thought on a paired board his J high flush is not good. So Fold.
Can someone explain to me why the King of Spade is the nuts here? Sorry, I’m new to the game.
who is the meatloaf to whom gabe refers? i'm guessing eric persson? i guess he busted out and left under a cloud?
💪
Note to self: If I ever play against Daniel - always pay the overbet. 🤣🤣
LOL I get that this is a joke, but for other viewers: this is assuming that he does not react to how you play him. I'm a noob and even in my home games when I see players who are loose callers, I tighten my range.