Pilot Shortage and Hiring Freeze Update - March 2024
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 มี.ค. 2024
- In today's video, I'm going to share the results of the research that I did into the hiring freeze that we're hearing so much about in the last few weeks.
Thanks for watching!
👉 Links mentioned:
1. www.iata.org/en/iata-reposito...
2. www.cnbc.com/2024/03/07/unite...
3. www.flightglobal.com/strategy...
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After a successful business career where I've started and sold a number of companies, I've decided to get out from behind my computer to pursue a lifelong passion and start career 2.0 as a professional pilot. My goal is to get to 1500 hours and then either work for a large regional, a major, or possibly even cargo. You can learn more at www.FlyWithTrent.com.
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Hi Trent,
I’m currently at flight school in AZ but I used to work for Southwest Airlines. My co-worker there is the main hiring person for FOs. She was telling me just last month that the main reason for the hiring freeze is that SWA didn’t get all of the Boeing 737s that they ordered. Since they didn’t get the new planes they can’t expand their routes like they planned so they are slowing their hiring.
I’m personally not worried about there being jobs in the near future. Aging out pilots and new planes being delivered will enable the airlines to continue hiring in the near future.
Thank you for posting this. This comment makes more economical sense on SWA's current decision. They are being very conservative to pace themselves. Makes sense. What flight school in AZ did you choose? I'm in Mke but considering an AZ school if needed, for faster and better training.
Love hearing comments from insiders like that. Thanks so much for sharing!
Hello,I am so stressed by looking pilot training school please help me ???? I need your help please !??
Trent speaks to this starting at 7:35
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Thank you for doing the deep dive to give us all of the analytics and calm our worries! Really great info!🙌🏻💯
Melissa….My pleasure!
Great video Trent! Thank you for the update. Thanks for acknowledging the shortage of technicians as well. It is something that is ignored in the media but a very real problem. I am currently at a service center with the airplane I manage, and though they have the manpower, they lack the experience, efficiency, and speed to perform maintenance at the highest level.
Alberto…Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Thanks for sharing Trent. This has been top of mind the last few weeks and I appreciate the data you shared. Hope to see you at Sun n Fun!
Chuck, please say hello if you see me :)
Thanks for the channel Trent.
Keep the content flowing, your video's are great!
Greetings from South Africa.
Thx Francois!
Thank you Trent for doing all this research in order to create this very informative video! I’m grinding away for my PP Cert and will keep going!! 👏👏👏
Glad it was helpful!
Once again thanks for keeping us updated trent l have been following since the beginning can't wait for the next video
Thanks for watching!
Great information, as always, especially for us 2.0 pilots working through the schools and hours! Thanks for taking the time to get the real deal and not just leaving us out here reading Reddit and other forums thinking the worst is happening. Plus, I think we all have to be realistic and understand that this industry has it's up and downs (pun intended) and that hiring goes in spurts. The opportunities will be there for us, just maybe not as fast as we originally would have hoped.
Chris…..you’re welcome! Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Love your videos and this one directly addressed some of the question I had in my mind. Thank you Trent and keep it up.
Awesome, thank you!
T, you’re doing your thing bro! Much love and happy flying good brother!
Thanks! You too!
I'm pretty active on the ATP Flight School forums. A number of ATP graduates who are at the airlines with advice and inside knowledge. I got a little bummed after watching Big Ern's last video showing him doing the last interviews of 2024 for Southwest. But I'm still starting my PPL training. Love flying and never know what the landscape will look like in two to three years when I'm knocking on the door of 1500 hours. I'm 37 in October, so I have to get hopping...I mean flying.
Martin…Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
lol I watched Big Erns video too and really had me second guessing getting back into flight training. But the more I dig the more I find that this is just short term and long term this is still work it. One thing I believe Ern is right about is you shouldn’t be failing any check rides and make sure your log books look good early on.
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excellent info Trent, you always give us the best analysis!!!
I appreciate that, Richard!
Thank you for the research done and video! Appreciate it :)
You’re welcome! Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Thanks for the update. Makes a lot of sense when you look at everything involved and the effects short and long term.
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Thx Trent for the information and research on this topic. Take care!
You bet!
Hey Trent, as always great informative video and I'd like to thank you for the motivation boost you giving to me as a career 2.0 at 36yo cant wait to materialize this dream and give a better life to my family.
You’re welcome! Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Trent thank you for the information! I will share this video with my other pilot friends..i had a CJO with gojet for june of this year and it got pushed to june 2025!! But let hang in there our time will come!
Sorry to hear that! Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
thanks, this really help! im a FO at a regional and i really appreciate your video
Glad it was helpful!
Thanks for the research and sharing it with us Trent =)
You’re welcome! Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Great information. Thank you!
You’re welcome! Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Thank you, Trent!
My pleasure!
Great info. Thanks Trent!
Any time!
Thanks Trent for this detailed information on the current situation. Will look for you at Sun n Fun. 👍🏼
Please do!
What the beautiful video! You are an aviation legend! Proudly following you bro!! Also can be a good idea to attend Skywest recruitment events since they have a lot in different locations!
Alex
Skywest will be at Sun n Fun :)
Very helpful information, thanks for the insight!
Glad it was helpful!
Hi, Trent. I definitely think this is informative and useful. I was supposed to start with SWA and the process was canceled because of the Boeing contracts falling through. Base and route expansions have made a huge dip in hiring that will, eventually, level out.
Glad it was helpful!
Love your content Trent, Alot of good info, im 20 hrs into my training, done with the written and studying for oral. I work in refinary at the moment and want to become a pilot, Corporate or Airline🙏
I’m rooting for your success :)
Wish I could give 5 thumbs up, thank you for your channel, it keeps me inspired while I save for training.
I appreciate that!
Hey Trent, I think they were referring to Captains when CA is used in the forums and not Check Airmen. I’ve always seen Check airmen abbreviated as LCA for line check airmen. Great video though! Super informative!!!
Caleb… quite a few other people have pointed out that oversight. Thanks for watching!
I had a great conversation with a NetJets captain the other day that basically said don’t worry about any of the slow down. He did say if I could get turbine time as part of my 1500 ATP mins that would be a huge leg up so I’m trying to find out how to get that vs burning holes in the sky in a piston single.
Great content as always. Thanks for the deep dive.
My inbox agrees with what he said. I see more job offers from NetJets than any other airline.
You should look into Berry Aviation and Ameriflight. Not sure what their hiring status is like at the moment, but it's worth looking into if you want to pick up some turbine time at some point along your road to 1500!
Will do!
When you figure out to get jet (other than military) time before an airline job, let everyone know. Especially left-seat time, or right seat where the crew is required. Good luck.
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Awesome! Still creating my 2 year plan to start, but this i formation is SUPER VALUABLE
Great to hear!
Great video and good insights keep it up!
Thanks, will do!
Correction at 6:50 - Trent said “Boeing calls for increase of 602k pilots, of which 435k will be in North America.” The 602k is not net additional pilots needed over todays pilot population, but rather how many need to be hired over next 20 years to account for pilots who retire/quit the career and increase in flight demand. Also the 435k is for pilots, flight attendants and technicians (all included in the pie chart) not just pilots, which looks to be ~ 30% of that 435k (call it 140-150k).
Thank you for the clarification!
Your second point is the main reason there is a hiring freeze on new 1500 hour pilots. The regionals have been one of the main pipelines for young pilots getting their first “real” jobs. The majors raided the experienced captains out of the regionals which has left all the regionals short on training captains. This has caused regionals (e.g. Republic)to propose new and somewhat draconian contracts to new pilots coming in. The new contracts are aimed at locking up pilots once they become captains. In the long term pilot shortage should continue for quite a while. Great content. Love the career 2.0 journey.
Thanks for sharing your thoughtful comment with the community!
Maybe I’ll see you at SnF, thanks for the great videos!
You’re welcome! Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
These videos you make are awesome
Glad you like them!
Very nice and well layered out.
Thank you!
Great video! Great content.
Much appreciated!
I wanted to go to sun n fun this year but I have a new job with no vacation time yet. I am finally saving enough to start flight training again. First on my list after renewing my medical, is to pay a CFI to help me knock the rust off and rebuild good habits. Then, start on my instrument rating. I’ve been studying the ground school for instrument but unlike you, I don’t learn quickly so I’ve been studying a while. I plan to take the written before I start my IFR.
I’m rooting for your success :)
Well, this could be the hiccup that turns into a tester. Good luck and keep going!
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Hi Trent, I'm a 54 year old private pilot who is not looking for an airline 2.0 career but would like to pursue an aviation 2.0 career after I retire. I rarely comment on videos but was moved to for your excellent analysis in this video. There are lots of opinions out there today but few people go to the trouble to do all the leg work and cite sources for the basis of their analysis. Great job and great video! Thanks!
Thank you, sir! 🙏
Please don’t take jobs for fun that young people actually need to start their career
@@matwest711 I've been thinking about this comment for several hours. I both never and always take jobs for fun, regardless of what I'm doing. I get where you're coming from but unfortunately where I live, general aviation has somewhat 'shrunk on the vine' because there isn't enough regular work to keep a young person busy enough (ie. enough flight hours) to interest them or enough regular work for a full-time career. Just finding a good CFI to work with is a challenge. There are plenty of gaps that need filling that youn-uns on their way to the airlines don't fit.
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@@matwest711 This is decided by the HR department and is called equal opportunity selection. You don´t know if this man has the same or tighter economic constraints than another youngster living in the same region. Btw young people need the likes of these experienced fifties guys around to keep learning.
I like your perspective on "Being older dudes".... I feel it is correct. We have life experience, and we project a feeling of confidence. While my channel is game repair... my day job is an operational consultant. a 20-somthing person could be trained on what needs done... but won't be taken as seriously as when a 40 to 50 year old person walks into a conference room. Also... I was also figuring it was more of a bottleneck issue, rather than an actual freeze. FYI... I should be done with my IR in the next couple weeks, and onto commercial.
🙌🙌 Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
So you’re saying that we “older guys” don’t deserve to fly because young bucks want the jobs? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@VvBv-id9bw Us old guys have just as much skin in the game. We put our lives on hold, and still lay out the cash to get our training. The school I'm currently at, I'm watching a bunch of college kids who don't have any real drive... it's just a career path to them. The older crowd has the drive, and actually want to be there. I would have done it when I was young, but the money wasn't there... and I preferred to be in a lab at the time. But 30 years of playing with planes... and now it's time to do what I want. (And the money doesn't hurt)
@@trent_dyrsmid That's what it sounds like to me. LOL
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As a pilot stuck at a regional in the lost decade i decided to go into the training department at the airline. I've been doing it since 2013 and have trained many a 2.0 pilot as you call it. perfect name BTW. I have stayed with the training department as a quality of life deal. If you have the time you should be able to get in somewhere, hopefully wherever you would like but just never count on it.
Just so you know you will have some advantages over the kids now finally coming through but you will also have some disadvantages. both in training and trying to get hired. I've trained everything from retired admirals, cops and even a John Deere engineer, so it definitely can be done. Best of luck and if I can help let me know.
P.S. Just a warning. It's not a part time job, but a lifestyle. Just be prepared for that too.
As a CFII.... all these people think it's a hobby job. Lol... it is indeed a lifestyle and a younger person's game with few commitments. I train so many people with MT. Everest ambitions and once they understand fully the undertaking many jump ship. Also aviation is least affordable today and hour required have never been higher. My advice is get your private so you can rent. Find another rewarding career and enjoy the people you love.
@mattsmith259 No argument from me. The positive of the 2nd career guys is usually they can walk away if they want. Can get in, see that it might not be for them then have something to fall back on. Definitely sounds like the case here. I would say go for it.
On the other hand, keeping it as a hobby you love vs turning it into a job isn't bad advice. That just might be 25 years of pessimism talking though.
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
I just want to understand what you're saying here:
"Aviation is least affordable today and hours required have never been higher."
Then, "My advice is to get your private so you can rent."
Respectfully, those two statements don't really match one another. I've heard a lot of older guys criticize people who get into aviation as a career because they like airplanes, claiming they'll get 'flown out' and the only way to enjoy flying is to be rich and do it for fun. The reality is, renting airplanes and flying private on a budget is a good way to go broke, let currency fall by the wayside, and let the private pilot certificate just be a box checked on the ole' bucket list. I think career pilots who discourage people from becoming pilots because it's "hard work" and a "big commitment" should go career 2.0 in another industry instead of trying to scare everyone away. @@mattsmith259
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Another GREAT video with good details and fact . Im confident that with my experience of 1100 TT , 345 ME inclusion turbine and jet , even though I have not flown in years , as soon as Im current I will find a lot of opportunities in the corporate market at an age of 58
Thanks very much for watching the video, and I wish you all the best in your journey!
@@trent_dyrsmid Thx , Im confident and appreciate these informative videos
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As always, great content! Whatever happened to the AME video idea?
He got busy and I got tired of asking him.
Great video! I heard from my DPE and I've been doing some research on Auto-landing and the possibility of airlines switching to single-pilot aircraft with the robots doing most of the work-- airbus seems to be leading the way with this. It would be awesome if you could do a video on that sometime!
Thanks very much for the topic suggestion. I will add it to my list. 🙌
Thanks Trent
As a 51yr old with minimum flight time requirements (1500hrs)and an option to retire from current non aviation field with a pension you are doing a lot of the leg work I need to make a decision to jump to career 2.0. as an airline pilot. Keep the content coming. Thanks in advance
Rex…..you’re welcome! Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Trent you are correct, the sky isn't falling and hiring will continue. Delta, for instance, will hire half of number of pilots in 2024 than were hired in 2023. Which will still be 1,000 pilots, which in historical hiring numbers is A LOT! We just got through two solid years of hiring demand like this industry hasn't seen well before my 23 years as an airline pilot. 2020 was THE year us in the industry have been hearing would happen for the past couple decades. Then the pandemic hiring freeze for a year and a half coupled with early retirements. Then two years of hiring I can describe only as insane. Now just a "normal" very robust hiring demand for the foreseeable future. How long is anyone's guess. The current shortage news we've been getting in the various forms of media is most definitely in Captains at regionals. All other demand is manageable with the rate of pilot supply. Not to worry to both V1.0 and V2.0 pilots, this hiring cycle is far from over in my humble opinion. Simply won't (never say never) be like it has been compared to 2022 and 2023. Still a fantastic time to get into aviation. Wages and demand will continue to drive the supply.
Thanks for sharing an industry insider’s POV! Much appreciated!
Hello Trent, I am a current E1 75 captain, and I wanted to say that I really appreciate the work you put into your videos. I’ve been in the industry for 25 years having done airport operations and atc control as well. It would be cool to chat sometime if you are interested.
I’m sort of career 3.0 and a certain sense. But I’ve been in aviation my whole adult life, just not as a pilot the entire time.
Hey Stuart… I would love to chat with you sometime. Please send me an email or a DM on Instagram.
I definitely agree that Career 2.0 folks have the "experience" card to use as an advantage. Unfortunately, I think the counter to that is everything (especially with corporations) comes down to money and the bottom line. It'll be much cheaper to higher Career 1.0's because of that same fact (that they don't have that extra experience and background, which demands higher pay). And when you're having to fill a lot of spaces, corps are much more likely to go with the cheaper route because they can fill more positions for the same (or lower) cost.
The pay is the pay. Age isn’t a factor….so from that POV, old guys for the win!
Thanks for another great video! I am a 2.0 pilot and hope to fly turbines in some capacity for the last 15 years of my working career. I am currently still working a 40 hour a week job and doing independent flight instruction on the side. I am getting about 6-8 hours a week and should have 1200 hours in the next 6-8 months. I enjoy your content. It keeps me hopeful that my dream is still alive!
Kevin…you’re welcome! Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
thanks Trent! I need to get my ass in gear! Stop by My A&P school at the sun -n- fun campus by the DC3!
I will keep an eye out!
Hey Trent, it’s me Keilyn I want to thank you again thank you again for making this video putting the insight. I want to add something to help people stand out and I’m not trying to promote this or anything. It’s just what I’m seeing and talking to people that are in the organization I am in of getting hired on by the airlines, so if you’re if you decide to fly for the civil air patrol, basically the auxiliary Air Force and as a pilot and you have, basically no failures and you have a lot of great letters of recommendation from squadron, commanders, wing, commanders, and stuff like that. I have heard this is just from what I have heard from other people that flies for the airlines, and that are part of CAP. The airlines will basically look at you and snatch you up in a heartbeat. This is what I take a grain of salt, but that’s another way to if people want to stand out. I wanna add to that because you did say how to stand out when, getting higher by the airlines so just want to share that
Thanks for sharing your thoughtful comment with the community!
Airlines have always been cyclical in hiring, we have recently seen a huge surge post COVID. Many pilots retired early due to COVID, realising that they enjoyed a change of lifestyle and didn’t need to continue.
If you want to be a pilot, and have the drive and ambition to do it, do it because it’s in your blood. Don’t do it because of the money and perceived payout, because you may well find it’s not what you think.
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Hey Trent, I could be wrong but my understanding of the term "CA" is Captain and not Check Airman. Regionals have a HUGE shortage of Captains because the majors started hiring FOs before they became CAs at the regionals, limiting the CA pool.
Geoff, right you are! I have been corrected on this many times since publishing the video 😜
At DL alone we have on average 500 retirements for the next 20 years. Of the big 3 we have the least amount of retirements. While we’re not gonna hire 2.4k pilots in a year like we did from 21-23 500-1000 pilots a year for retirements and growth is still exponential compared to historical averages.
Thanks for sharing your thoughtful comment with the community!
I work at an MRO shop that overhauls landing gears for jets and military jets and we have issues finding people willing to work and obtain parts for these overhauls. A lot of manufactures are refusing to make parts due to quality parts ..
Interesting. Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
On the brightside, the slowdown at the majors means regional FOs, Captains and check airmen will jump ship at lower rates, allowing FO hiring and training to pick up again. That said, the days of ATP direct to Spirit or 1 year at a regional to Southwest are probably gone for good.
I guess we’ll see!
thanks for the info essel. between what you said and what sharongilbert said it falls into what a couple fo my dad's friends who are retired ozark [iltos said. the pilot shortage is not over, not by a long shot. the problem is ther is an airplane shortage. Boeing's well publicized issues and of course lots of airbus/Embraer 190 e2's are ground due to P&W engine issues. they says once all that gets resolved and new planes stop coming back online then the hiring freeze will melt right away. so hopefully i will be in flight school before 1 OCT.
Agree.
Keep the great info coming Trent. Much appreciated🫡
Will do!
What's interesting in all of this is that, in spite of headlines, I continue to see advertisements for Southwest's Destination 225 program and United's Aviate. To me this implies that, while there may be a current slowdown / pause in hiring, the airlines still see a need to continue recruiting.
As you pointed out, Trent, the whole situation is far more nuanced than headlines.
Thanks for sharing your thoughtful comment with the community!
United, American, and Delta are just going to continue doing what they’ve been doing all along-hiring pilots off of their regional counterparts. The regionals are unaffected by the issues at Boeing since they rarely operate Boeing equipment, and will likely continue adding new regional jets and routes. So, if anything, the regionals will continue hiring, and promoting from within.
If this thing really goes south, guys like us will probably just be at the regionals before bouncing to majors a bit longer than we expected. Not a big worry to me.
Good share. Thx!
I agree with alot of what you said.
Also with it being an election year.... the same with construction and oil industry depending on who gets elected will depend on their growth outlooks. Hoping for that economy grower which will bring back the hiring. In addition to boeing, and airbus neo issues. I give it 2 years and it should be stabalized.
Id also like to add we are in a recession whether this administration wants to admit it or not
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
A friend of mine is waiting on a class date at PSA, he was told they have a lack of Captains and they are training them now so they are not training new FO right now.
Thanks for sharing your thoughtful comment with the community!
Two years ago I looked at doing a pilot 2.0 career switch as part of a life reassessment and orientation toward a long-held dream. I actually took some Cessna classes and got into the FAA material. I loved it and honestly could have dove into it completely, giving up a significant amount of income to become a commercial pilot. But trying to get 1500 hours, boring holes in the sky at $150/hr, the hit to my family in time, income, and investment just wasn't worth it.
It’s a big hill to climb. Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Airlines are doing a great job of packing people in like sardines and canceling flights. Getting to a point now where I consider driving over flying.
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Hi Trent, I firstly appreciate your effort by sharing your journey to become a pilot. You gave me hope that I could do it also. Now, I've try to search for the First Class Medical Certificate procedure on TH-cam but have not found any. Have you done your first class? Would you be able to share your experience about what required to pass Class 1 Medical Certificate?? Many thanks
Yes I have one. I went to the doc, he assessed me and I passed. Not much there for a video.
Trent, if you can catch up with Carl Valeri at Sun n Fun that would be greatly appreciated. If possible please do a podcast with him on his journey as well. He runs another podcast - Aviation Career Podcast and is a A320 instructor at a major.
I will keep an eye out for him.
Aviation always been an attrition game. It's just favored now for you if you stick in it long enough to get the golden 1500 hours.
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Thanks for your insight. However, you haven’t mentioned JetBlue/Spirit issue and that spirit might go under which could overflow the market.
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Trent as one of your early subscribers. I too will be at Sun N Fun haven’t been since 98
Say hi if you see me :)
@@trent_dyrsmid I like the term Career 2.0, I turn 50 this summer.
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Hey my súper Trent 🛫🇺🇸✌🏻 thank you.. I wasn't concerned, I have faith in the industry and our future in 2.0 legacy/ commercial aviation 🪽 ty so much as always and congratulations 👏🏻 on your hours accomplished ✌🏻
Thx Aldo!
I'm a private pilot attending AMT school. Even if I could get my commercial, instrument, multi, and class 2/1 this year, I'm still looking at retiring in ~10 years. Once I get the A&P I have zero desire to go 121/135. The industry is simply too unstable and prone to disruption, even more so than my current field (IT).
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
normally the manning level per airplane for the airlines are between 5 and 6 crews. So 100 airplanes for the 737 equals a minimum of 1000 pilots. The wide body international flying uses 3 to 4 pilots per plane so obviously more for that type of flying per plane. check airmen are used to train new captains, new pilots and pilots switching airplanes in either seat...normally it is 25 hours of training per seat in the airplane (IOE initial operating experience)...check airmen are FAA designees so they also do line checks which are required every 12 months for each pilot, also route checks for captains for designated airports.
Thanks for sharing your thoughtful comment with the community!
@@trent_dyrsmid I updated my post for the math error (never do public math), 100 planes is a minimum of 1000 pilots. also a couple extra things line check airmen do. I am a retired UAL captain, and glad to be on the sidelines...😎
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CA is Captain, not Check Airman. So the shortage is Captains. If you don’t have captains, you can’t use more first officers.
Thanks for pointing that out!
Thanks for this information! Definitely putting some mind at ease for us 2.0ers.. hope to see you at the Sun and Fun. I am volunteering for NAFI on Tuesday please stop by and say Hi! Booth 82
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Hey Trent, I would be curious to see what your thoughts on how sustainable this higher pilot pay is going to be in the future. And your reasons as to why.
Jacob…. If I didn’t think it was going to be sustainable, I wouldn’t be on the path I’m on. Supply vs demand.
two regionals say they are furloughing recently like this past 7 days!! Ahh And alot of big airlines pausing hiring for diff depts for the rest of the year
All of that is related to Bo being behind on Aircraft deliveries as opposed to a lack of demand for air travel.
Can you do a video on pilot cadet programs I almost have my commercial rating and I don’t know who to apply for. Thx
Go to their websites, and apply. No video needed.
I asked a prospective flight school about a month ago about the hiring freeze and if the 5 year pilot shortage was over after just 2. i also asked if at 50 yrs old i should even i even waste my time now and end up with a huge student loan over my head if no one is going to hire me. Have yet to hear a response so i am really starting to wonder should i even bother. my dream is to fly for a career so i would like to go for it. On the other hand i have to make sure i do not saddle myself with a debt that i can not pay and i can not use. that would be stupid,. then i watch Trent;s video and i am still going to go after it. espeically the part where skywest says they will be hiring for years.
Like I said, in my video, do not take a shortcut when it comes to doing your own research as well.
Based on major airline retirement numbers, there will be a high number of retirements at least until 2030, and then it starts to slow down. If you are getting in the industry now, you will still have some decent seniority.
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Let’s not forget about the FAAs oversight of United pretty much shutting down hiring for the interim. That’s their biggest hurdle at the moment.
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17:20 It would be cool if you did a podcast with Nik Fialka to discuss this. He has the "Ready 4 Pushback" podcast. I think your story of getting all of your ratings done in no time would resonate with his community. Also, he is a big proponent of volunteering at the recruiting events, which relates to the time stamp I placed.
I’ll check it out. Thx!
Good info, thanks 🤙
You’re welcome!
As a guy that’s getting ready to hit ATP mins soon… I’m not worried in the least.
There's always cargo when 121 goes dark. 135 and part 91 still exist. Corporate jobs are the graviest jobs i've had in the industry and 135 feels as the most stable. Even if you are flying 40 year old clapped out freight haulers. 121 pays the most but it is unstable.
@@Keys879 I’m hitting 121 for a year or two to build turbofan time, get CRM training, type rated in a bigger jet, and honestly to have fun in the airline world. Then it’s over to 135/91 to build some time in type and learn the corporate/private jet ropes. After that, contract flying.
@@VictoryAviation If you want into Corporate, more than airlines it is who you know, not what you know. The gravy flows thick and they paid for all of my King Air, TBM, PC12, and Citation training. I never went airlines and always wonder but the guys who have left for the airlines hate their jobs. No idea why but the airlines turn it into work. Seems like A320's and 737 would be more fun.
Go get it. Have your fun and build as much experience and contacts as you can manage. Don't let the naysayers get'cha down and keep flying! See you out in the blue skies!
@@Keys879121 and 91 are very different lifestyles. If you want the lavish lifestyle at work that isn’t 121. If you want the easier of the two jobs that is possibly more stable and pays great? 121 may be for you. I have friends in the corporate world who while have considered the airline life for the retirement benefits and security love the family lifestyle they get from the flight department. For me, I’ll happily fly my 321NEO to the islands once or twice a month enjoying the easy flying till I can hold the 330.
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When I was 18-20 I was going to school and receiving flight training. I ultimately decided against aviation as a career path because, at the time (2010-2012) pilots were treated like pure garbage. The pay did not at all justify the training costs and airlines viewed pilots as their property; as if they are mere paid slaves. It was actually ranked at the time by many sources as being among the top 5 most stressful careers. I guess others felt the same way and now the airlines are getting just what they've had coming. Good.
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
So, to me the question(s) becomes:
How are they are incentivizing Check Airman so as to keep the supply where it needs to be so that rookie FOs can come onboard?
Additionally, how are they incentivizing FOs presently so as to upgrade them to Captains, thus making room for the new guard of hirable CFIs and turning them into FOs?
And also, there seems to be a paradox (or at least it's not clear to me) re: the grounded aircraft. Namely, why are they grounded in the first place? If "grounded airplanes don't need pilots to fly them" then it seems valid that the people having trouble getting hired presently would be DELIGHTED to get the opportunity to solve for that. There's something unclear in the supply/demand relative to the grounded planes at the Regionals. Grounded planes = lost revenue (last I checked). So I'm curious what the Regionals are doing to get "unstuck" from that problem. Seems like hiring more pilots to get them off the ground would be a fine solution. And yet - there's a hiring freeze???
I welcome any/all thoughts on this as there's still just a few missing data points to sew it all together (at least for me)
Thanks for sharing your thoughtful comment with the community!
I am far from an expert in the field, but I am wondering about the use of CA for Check Airmen. I was under the impression CA was referring to Captains, similar to how FO represents First Officers. While both would be a concern, I believe the Major airlines poaching the more veteran Captains, and leaving only fresh Captains is the issue. Similar to how a brand new CFI may not be the most experienced, and best teacher, that is what leaving only brand new Captains would do to the Regional. They would not have the knowledge to train new FOs until they get experience themselves. With the Majors slowing/freezing hiring, this will allow the Regionals to train and refill their ranks of Captains, and then hopefully be ready for the coming needs due to attrition.
Interesting perspective! Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Yes, the CA in those forum posts means CAptain. They are discussing that there are not enough captains so the airlines have no reason to hire more FOs when there aren’t enough captains for them to fly with.
However, all the airlines are also dealing with a lack of training resources which includes check airmen (usually abbreviated by LCA for Line Check Airman). So while the forum posts don’t refer to check airmen specifically, Trent’s comments are still accurate.
Thx for the clarification Mark!
There's never been more opportunity in commercial aviation.
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
There are a lot of things putting pressure on hiring right now have nothing to do with the supply of new airplanes. The two biggest issues are a lack of captains at the regional level and the lack of training capacity throughout the industry. GoJet, for example recently announced that they won’t be hiring any more pilots for 2024 classes. This has been reported as no new hire classes in 2024. However my understanding is that their 2024 classes are all full so now they’re working on 2025 classes.
The other thing to remember is that 2022 and 2023 were banner years for pilot hiring. That the hiring is slowing in 2024 doesn’t mean that the sky is falling, only that the airlines are trending back toward their normal hiring levels. That said, predictions for 2024 show that total pilot hiring this year will still be above historical norms. It just won’t be like the last two years.
Remember that there was a time when you couldn’t even interview at a regional without 3000 hours and 1000 multi.
The end is not here. Reality is just returning to normal, that’s all. The reasons are those discussed in this video as well as the captain shortage and simulator availability.
If you’re a pilot approaching ATP minimums, don’t fret. Yes it will take longer too be hired than the previous couple of years, but the forecast is still pretty good.
Thanks for sharing your thoughtful comment with the community!
hey I go to vaughn collage and they have train students to be pilots so yes there are some hold ups
Thank you so much for watching and leaving a comment. It all helps my channel to grow and help more guys/gals like us!!
I'm planning on buying a plane to build hours after I get my private license... Problem is out here in Iowa DPEs are really hard to come by and I've been having horrible luck with weather. I've been ready since mid-Feb to get checked out, but every checkride has been met with a random day of poor conditions. Now I'm scheduled again on the 25th, but it's already looking like bad weather. The last thing I want to do is fall another month behind. Does anyone know if there's anything I can do to talk DPEs into a shorter reschedule time than 3 weeks or am I purely at the mercy of luck with weather?
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Just watched your video and found it very interesting. However, the term, “Check Airman”, is no longer being used by the FAA. The new term is, “Check Pilot”. I know there’s going to be a lot of unhappy folks who will whine about being, “PC”, but get over it. The FAA is in the process of fixing up all of their terms in the regulations and handbooks.
Thanks for the info!
I want to be a pilot but companies make it too damn expensive with no way to properly differentiate between who actually has an aptitude for it and for who doesnt!
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
It still remains to say that the regionals will continue and always have an issue with keeping pilots until they pay these pilots an acceptable wage. Full stop. Mechanics are the same. Why stick around when the pay bump for a mechanic can be upwards of $30 more an hour plus amazing health insurance and flight benefits. Now even, companies are offering $10,000 hiring bonuses for certified mechanics.
Good point!
Will the planes parked because of Prat and twitney engine part supply problems play a role at all in the slowdown?
Not sure.
Hey Trent do you think for someone who still wants to get into flying it is still a good career? I was looking into working for cargo. I haven't been able to apply for flight school because I had to wait to be cleared for my medical license.
Yes!
@@trent_dyrsmid Thanks for answering me!
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value bomb
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At 6:57 you have an error in your data analysis. You mention that Boeing calls for 602K pilots, and 435K of them would come from the US. That 435K is total personnel, not just pilots. The US pilot number is 128K, not 435K.
Thx for clarifying
well, hardly anyone is hiring at the moment.
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I think you read your chart incorrectly. You said 602,000 pilots of which 435,000 are in N America. However, the 435,000 number is pilots, technicians and crew. Not only pilots.
Thanks so much for watching one of my videos! I really appreciate you taking a moment to comment!
Hi Trent, I am a numbers person, and I am actually looking into taking available data from the BLS and other sources on the age of existing pilots, and putting that data along with data on and the approximate quantities of pilots currently in training at flight schools into a spreadsheet. Then, I would like to analyze that data to approximate where we will be at over the next couple years in terms of replacing the attrition of existing pilots throughout the industry. If you would be interested in looking at whatever data I find and whatever analysis I do, let me know.
Notwithstanding the BLS data, many younger folks out there now simply don't have the interest or skills required to become a commercial pilot. Colleges are dumbing down core curricula because whiny students can't do basic math or write a simple composition in standard English. Goes without saying that it takes math, communications abilities, and critical thinking skills to be a pilot.
The CEO of United likes to dress up in drag for fun, but at the end of the day he's a businessman who's accountable to his Board of Directors. Despite their WOKE politics, the CEOs of the majors will not hire dumb people to fly hundred million dollar jets. I strongly suspect that many older pilots will be flying for years to come.
Please do share it!
@@FallacyAsPraxis on that, as a Millennial, I will sharply disagree with your assessment. Millennials are very hardworking, and are the staple of the workforce now that the Boomers are starting to retire. Gen Z still hasn’t had really gotten into the workforce in large numbers for us to have a good data set to work with. And Boomers themselves were lazy a$$hole hippies back in the day before they finally decided to grow up, cut their hair, take showers, dress professionally, and go to work.
That being said, I don’t care whether Scott Kirby is gay or straight or a drag queen or Democrat or Republican or whatever. All I care about is whether or not he (or any of these airline CEOs for that matter) can run a big airline on a tight profit margin and grow the industry without going bankrupt, which given market competitiveness and the high cost of equipment and infrastructure and fuel, is always a huge challenge anywhere in the transportation industry.
The problem right now is not the airlines. The problem right now is that Boeing simply doesn’t have enough engineers on staff to get planes built without quality control issues. But that problem will slowly correct. More Airbus A220s and A320s will be built to fill the market demand for narrowbody planes. Boeing will lose market share in the narrowbody space, but they will eventually figure out how to get their shit together.
Bottom line? If you have to blame anyone, blame current and former Boeing executives for mismanagement.
Agree.