opponent summoning a glimmer as a manifestation of their hope and then you countering that play via using horrid vigor to snuff out those hopes is kind of a cool little horror movie moment. doesn't work quite as well when it's a clown doll killing a rube-goldberg-machine lawn mower, but, can't win 'em all. regardless, this format looks sweet. seems slower, which i love, but it can be a bit hard to tell with nobody playing boros. seeing the doors deck pop off was awesome.
I’m fairly certain the “should I mill?” math doesn’t work out the way you think it does, at least, not in this case. If you have N left cards in your deck, and you’re looking for a specific card (of which you only have one copy), and you have the option to mill a card or not before you draw, then your choice leads to the following outcome probabilities: * if you don’t mill, then there’s a 1/N chance that the top card of your deck is the card you want, and you draw it, with a (1-N)/N chance it’s not, and you don’t. Expected value: 1/N * if you choose to mill, then there’s a 1/N chance that the top card of your deck is the card you want, in which case it gets milled. In that case, you won’t draw it, so the expected value is 0. There’s a (1-N)/N chance a different card is on top card and gets milled. In that case, there’s a 1/(N-1) chance the card you want is now on top. That’s expected value 1/(N-1) for the case where you didn’t end up milling the card you want. But the total expected value (before you see what you milled) is (1/N * 0) + ((N-1)/N * (1/(N-1)), which reduces to 1/N. It’s the same chance either way. Obviously, there are other arguments in favor of milling, like getting value out of your graveyard, but it doesn’t make you any more or less likely to find a one-of you’re looking for.
another, perhaps more intuitive way to look at it, is there is a 1/N chance that the card you are looking for is the top card of your library, but also a 1/N chance that is is the card second from the top
1:33:29 not sure if you caught the mistake here, but impossible inferno does 6 damage so you didn't need to give up the beastie and they wouldn't have gained 5 life and you would've won like 3 or 4 turns earlier with the extra 3/3
I just finished my first tournament. Got the white horror along with the destroy all creatures tapped or untapped sorcery and chainsaw, which was good. Was three colors that of black, red and white. Got Marvin too.
Did I miss something in that last match? Why did we need to block the creature with the Dissection Tools before casting Impossible Inferno, doesn’t it already do enough to kill the thing?
Was wondering the same thing Idk how active Nizzahon is in the comments. I don't come here often I suspect he thought the spell dealt 5, as that is pretty common in sets these days
You were in no way locked into white going in pack two, I would have taken centipede that was the best card for you P2P1, then not taking Wurm P2P2 was crazy
Leylines in general tend to be very heavily oriented towards building your deck around them (or being hate pieces for specific strategies), which means that they are usually a blank to draw in limited
Chainsaw...or "what if your two mana three damage red removal that you played early just sat in play and eventually became an equipment that turns every creature you play into a threat for the rest of the game?" 😂
I think the in-universe explanation for Fear of Abduction is that Maro got extremely bitter and petty about the colossal flop that was Unfinity, and said "We'll just make the next Un-set a mainline set!"
in our world, (american) alien abduction narratives began to become more common and better circulated in the 50s and 60s, which dovetails with a lot of medical developments and generally increased access to pharmecuticals and surgeries. i've seen people hypothesize that the alien abduction narrative was caused by people's anxieties related to medical procedures they didn't understand. hence, ingesting strange substances and getting probed becomes one of the cornerstones of the abduction narrative. duskmourn is based on the american 70s and 80s, so, i think this all tracks. i imagine the omenpaths allowing literal aliens to travel to different plane(t)s also contributes. the real in-universe unfinity is gonna be the space opera set in 2025. this is just the tee-up.
opponent summoning a glimmer as a manifestation of their hope and then you countering that play via using horrid vigor to snuff out those hopes is kind of a cool little horror movie moment.
doesn't work quite as well when it's a clown doll killing a rube-goldberg-machine lawn mower, but, can't win 'em all.
regardless, this format looks sweet. seems slower, which i love, but it can be a bit hard to tell with nobody playing boros. seeing the doors deck pop off was awesome.
I’ve done some mock drafts and one of boros. It’s annoyingly difficult to get the creature density required.
chucky vs Christine could be a cool movie, that's basically what happened there.
"Aliens in Magic is weird" says man with a chainsaw :D
yeah chainsaws and phones and televisions are dumb too
Chainsaws have been in magic for ages tho, they just had been called "ripsaws" or some shit
"Thank God for Chainsaw" is a whole mood, lol
I’m fairly certain the “should I mill?” math doesn’t work out the way you think it does, at least, not in this case.
If you have N left cards in your deck, and you’re looking for a specific card (of which you only have one copy), and you have the option to mill a card or not before you draw, then your choice leads to the following outcome probabilities:
* if you don’t mill, then there’s a 1/N chance that the top card of your deck is the card you want, and you draw it, with a (1-N)/N chance it’s not, and you don’t. Expected value: 1/N
* if you choose to mill, then there’s a 1/N chance that the top card of your deck is the card you want, in which case it gets milled. In that case, you won’t draw it, so the expected value is 0. There’s a (1-N)/N chance a different card is on top card and gets milled. In that case, there’s a 1/(N-1) chance the card you want is now on top. That’s expected value 1/(N-1) for the case where you didn’t end up milling the card you want. But the total expected value (before you see what you milled) is (1/N * 0) + ((N-1)/N * (1/(N-1)), which reduces to 1/N.
It’s the same chance either way. Obviously, there are other arguments in favor of milling, like getting value out of your graveyard, but it doesn’t make you any more or less likely to find a one-of you’re looking for.
He's trying to get delirium activated, not look for a specific card.
@@michaelmaniloff9297 at one point in the video nizz already has delirium and says he is milling to help him find a removal spell
another, perhaps more intuitive way to look at it, is there is a 1/N chance that the card you are looking for is the top card of your library, but also a 1/N chance that is is the card second from the top
Thank you! I was distracting myself trying to understand how the math worked after he said that, and wasn't able to convince myself it was correct.
1:33:29 not sure if you caught the mistake here, but impossible inferno does 6 damage so you didn't need to give up the beastie and they wouldn't have gained 5 life and you would've won like 3 or 4 turns earlier with the extra 3/3
I want a textless manifest dread, but the name is also the rules text
Only if the flavor text is also manifest dread.
I just finished my first tournament. Got the white horror along with the destroy all creatures tapped or untapped sorcery and chainsaw, which was good. Was three colors that of black, red and white. Got Marvin too.
When I saw that Oklahoma cap, I did not think you would win a lot of games, but you showed up and showed out, great job!
Why would an Oklahoma hat make you think I wouldn't win?
Vengeful Possession on the Attack-In-The-Box is so good. That's a tough one.
Did I miss something in that last match? Why did we need to block the creature with the Dissection Tools before casting Impossible Inferno, doesn’t it already do enough to kill the thing?
Was wondering the same thing
Idk how active Nizzahon is in the comments. I don't come here often
I suspect he thought the spell dealt 5, as that is pretty common in sets these days
yo... I did NOT expect this deck to cook this much as I watched you draft. Good shit dude earned a subscriber off this one.
Wickerfolk thresher should be a rare that cards absurd. Seems like I was right in thinking delirium is pretty easy to get 😂
Only way to describe a Chainsaw deck in a horror/movie themed set: Groovy!
It's what happens when you draw a bad hand...
chainsaw is such a lore win.
You were in no way locked into white going in pack two, I would have taken centipede that was the best card for you P2P1, then not taking Wurm P2P2 was crazy
Passing up a pick 3 pack 1 Murder is nasty work my friend
Why did you chump at 1:33:36 with the beastie instead of dealing six with inferno? Is there something I'm missing?
Shoud cut some (a lot of) slack since its literally the first draft, but pivoting into green AFTER the wurm is kinda disappointing
Chainsaw? ridiculous! Patchwork Beastie true MVP
Very bice pivot to green
I'd assume this plane has aliens, thats about it
CHAINSAW-WIELDING GREMLINS
Seems like they’re letting content creators have an avatar other than Ajani during early access now? Small but cool detail
Can anyone explain why it's worth skipping the red leyline? As a new-ish player, it seems like a strong pick.
U either mulliganing yourself or cast a do nothing spell on t4. How many burn spells will u draft?
Leylines in general tend to be very heavily oriented towards building your deck around them (or being hate pieces for specific strategies), which means that they are usually a blank to draw in limited
It only doubles spells that you target your creatures with. It's too narrow.
Didn't realize it was only your creatures and not any creature. Thanks all.
@@ReligiousGamersCh although red leyline is BUSTED in constructed formats with more options. Turn 2 wins are often possible on mono red.
Chainsaw...or "what if your two mana three damage red removal that you played early just sat in play and eventually became an equipment that turns every creature you play into a threat for the rest of the game?" 😂
Well, someone is salty after an encounter with a true alpaca main...
Made the most of a weird deck.
The flavor art and theme of this set is awful but the draft format looks pretty kick ass.
I think the in-universe explanation for Fear of Abduction is that Maro got extremely bitter and petty about the colossal flop that was Unfinity, and said "We'll just make the next Un-set a mainline set!"
Mark Rosewater is not in charge of worldbuilding
in our world, (american) alien abduction narratives began to become more common and better circulated in the 50s and 60s, which dovetails with a lot of medical developments and generally increased access to pharmecuticals and surgeries. i've seen people hypothesize that the alien abduction narrative was caused by people's anxieties related to medical procedures they didn't understand. hence, ingesting strange substances and getting probed becomes one of the cornerstones of the abduction narrative.
duskmourn is based on the american 70s and 80s, so, i think this all tracks. i imagine the omenpaths allowing literal aliens to travel to different plane(t)s also contributes.
the real in-universe unfinity is gonna be the space opera set in 2025. this is just the tee-up.
Meathook Massacre II is not worldbuilding
@@bartoffer Okay?
is the explanation not as simple as “some people are afraid of aliens, even if they aren’t real, so there’s a manifested fear of one”
Nizzahon, your limited content is unparalleled, best in business 🔥🫰🏾
Glad you think so!
1:22:00 never worried about not drawing land~
@1:33:40 you did not need to block inferno does 6 damage it had 6 life.