How Brexit is Impacting UK's Trade with the EU: An Economic Analysis
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 ก.พ. 2024
- Delve into the complexities of Brexit's economic impact with John Springford, an acclaimed Associate Fellow renowned for his in-depth research on European affairs. Drawing from his extensive experience at the Center for European Reform, Springford provides insightful analysis into the intra-EU goods trade boom and its implications for UK exports. Explore why UK goods exports to the EU have not fared worse compared to exports to the rest of the world, unraveling the puzzles behind the data.
From examining the disparities in sectoral performance to assessing the broader implications for the UK economy, this discussion offers a comprehensive exploration of post-Brexit trade dynamics.
Join us for a thought-provoking exploration that sheds light on the intricate interplay between policy decisions and economic outcomes. Subscribe now for more economic eduction and insightful interviews like these.
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It turns out that imposing trade barriers on yourself isn't good for the economy! And no, Brexit hasn't sorted out the NHS or reduced net migration either.
....damn...how and why could that be....hmmmmmmm
The obvious solution is to Brexit harder! Brexit cannot fail, it can only be failed!
But right now low net migration is not what the UK needs. Also you need to look at net migration as a rolling number over a few years.
The big problem the UK has, is the active workforce prior to these big migration numbers the UK lost a lot of people out of the country, workers and students due to covid. The UK also lost an extra 600k workers more if less to the sick list. It also lost a million or so workers to early retirement.
So this was a key component of Brexit is that it allows the government of the day to adjust immigration policy to need.
During the last couple of years the UK definitely had a need for workers on an.operational timeframe. Strategically it needs to train and repurpose workers but that takes a longer time. There are also problems in the world at the moment so a big number of people were brought in.for humanitarian reasons.
These are all good necessary reasons for high immigration. But that is done now almost so the government needs to close the gap which is now allowed by brexit.
But it's up to the government of the day to adjust immigration policy accurately according to need.
If we were still in the Single market and had freedom of movement, then none of this would be an issue, worker could come and go for when we needed@@peterclareburt4594
@@cv990a4how is that a solution ?!?
Ah the Tufton Street lobby groups who lobbied for brexit and provided Liz Truss with the disastrous mini budget.
The north of Ireland screwed up Brexit. the most logical solution is Irish reunification, it's an island after all. Everyone in the 32 counties now can have full Irish citizenship, even the unionists are quietly getting their Irish/EU passports.
Brexit done more for a united Ireland than 25 years of armed conflict.
Brexit folk still polishing the Farage Brexit turd to see if the lies will happen as magic
The ancient art of turd polishing is an honored tradition in the magical kingdom of political wishful thinking!
EU is laughing at us
I cannot speak for the entirety of the EU, but based on my own experiences, I don't believe people are mocking the UK. Historically, the UK has demonstrated a willingness to pursue alternative paths in pursuit of change, and people were genuinely curious to see if the UK could secure a better deal. Unfortunately, it seems that the middle and lower classes in the UK are facing increased hardships. However, despite challenges, we remain neighbors, and time will continue to move forward. We are interconnected, and our futures are intertwined, well make a better future.
Yes, with all the problems we are facing, it‘s nice to see that following populists never leads to anything good.
Before listening to this analysis, i always question who puts out information. I cannot find who funds or backs the IEA… why would that be?
UK's quantitative easing ended in 2021. I would expect to see a fall in trade working its way through the system
so setting up as a competitor to the EU wasn't such a good idea , who'd a thought ??
The EU wasn't such a good idea, either. It does nothing that actual free trade cannot do.
@@lochnessmunster1189 the transport costs are much lower, which is also a benefit for the environment
@@stevecoppin6396 What do you mean?
@@lochnessmunster1189 the EU is a lot closer than Australia or the far east
@@stevecoppin6396 Let's say that the EU never existed, and there was just free trade in Europe. How would that be worse than what we have now?
WHO FUNDS THE IEA?
Before Brexit, FDI (Financial Direct Investment) was big for the UK for 3 reasons: established UK banking institutions, English language, and access to the Eurozone. After Brexit, UK lost access to the Eurozone which makes Ireland a lucrative country as a substitute for the UK.
5% hit to gdp. No amount of mental gymnastics can deny that.
Give us a list of British made items as I was not aware of many industries left - all given to China.
UK energy companies made 93% more profit last year. Greedy arrogance is your main export.
Sewage?
Marmite?
Tyrrells potato crisps.
What a disaster
THE CONSEQUENTIAL FINANCIAL COST OF BREXIT SEEMINGLY HAS A FAR GREATER IMPACT ON THE MAJORITY OF UK CITIZENS. TRADE IS ONE OF MANY FACTORS OF BREXIT.
and UK aren't yet at all unpluged to the EU, it will take 7 years, ohhrah brexit!
It will take decades. Good luck!
IEA fifth columnists for foreign corporations.
This wouldn't surprise me however a country is not a bank.
Brexit fiasco
What does the EU do, that can't be achieved with free trade in Europe?
Who's this geezer ?
Who funds you?
This is a snippet of a larger conference so we're not getting the full picture. His stats go to Q2 2023 and we are now Q1 2024, so it will be interesting to see how things develop. It is obvious that Brexit would make a dent in UK/EU trade - that was always expected. I didn't vote to leave the EU to increase or optimise trade with the EU, but because of where the EU is heading. The EU is a political project as much as an economic one and that project has integration at its core. This integration will entail transfer of ever more powers to Brussels and with that a gradual erosion of democracy, something the EU pretends to respect but in reality eschews. If liberation from the EU comes at a cost, then it's a cost we should be willing to bear.
Well it would have been smarter to leave when your fears actually materialised than endure the costs of leaving due to fears which are just speculation at this stage.
@@TimMountjoy-zy2fd It was a judgement at the end of the day and I'm happy we called it right when we voted to leave the EU. Such a monumental change as Brexit was bound to come with costs, disruption, drawbacks and risks, but I believe history will show we made the right decision in 2016. It's also irreversible, so those who don't like Brexit need to get used to it.
you claim "It is obvious that Brexit would make a dent in UK/EU trade" so why did no one on the leave side of the campaign ever say this? Why did they are say 'literally no downsides'?
@@NonFlyiingDutchman I didn't take any part in the campaigns. However, in any such campaigns that precede a plebiscite, it is usual that each side presents their own case in favour of what they are advocating and the other side presents the counter-argument. The Remain side had every opportunity to point out that there would be downsides, and they did. Similarly, the Remain side didn't explain any of the disadvantages or risks of staying in the EU, nor would we expect them to do so. You don't seem to have a very convincing argument.
@@dogglebird4430 Yes the Remain side said there would be hit to exports, they were right, but Leave dismissed it as 'project fear' and said there were only upsides and literally no downsides. Do you agree then that the Leave campaign lied? There were no tangible downsides to remaining that the Remain campaign could explain, only made-up stuff from the Leave campaign about stuff like 80million Turks all coming to the UK. and all being conscripted to an EU army. Do you agree that the Leave campaign lied about those things too?
It would be good if the UK had a government with the balls to implement Brexit. Sadly we don't.
Then how come the UK is still stuck with the European Law on Human Rights and decisions made by the ECJ ?
@@MENSA.lady2 And these will help the UK economy how, exactly?
The UK escapes the unelected Brussels cesspit.
This is Brexit. Put forward your ways and plans to make Brexit any different to what is unfolding.
Brexit has been implemented in full, the Brexit you voted for that is... leaving the EU. The EU referendum ballot paper was pretty clear in what it was asking the electorate "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” should we stay or leave, nothing more, everything else was open to interpretation and up for grabs... the Brexit you are thinking about is what you were promised by the likes of Farage, Johnson Cummings etc. the people who were in no position to follow through in any meaningful way on those promises. You got exactly what you voted for, and now you are bitching about it!? Chill out, you won, you should be relishing the fact that your vote got us out of the EU... or is that why you are not happy? Deep down you realise that it's all gone wrong? Wanting more separation from the EU and Europe when it's more than obvious that the separation of the UK from the EU and Europe has already greatly added to the UK's woes is ridiculous, we've already shot ourselves in both feet and now you want to take aim at other body parts! Ridiculous.
Brexit has been the best decision for the future of the United Kingdom in regaining its freedom and independence. Britain sovereignty will not be put in jeopardy by rejoining the European Union.
😂😂😂😂😂
@@nedgeson326 What does the EU do, that actual free trade cannot do?
@@lochnessmunster1189opportunities to live and work in any of 27 countries from the Baltic to the Mediterranean - I did this. My kids don’t have that choice.
Prevention of trade disputes.
Prevention of wars (the main reason for the EU originally)
Ease of travel for all citizens to aid cultural exchange and understanding rather than xenophobia and misunderstanding.
@@nedgeson326 But please tell me how the EU prevents wars, and how an EU-type structure could have prevented WW2 in Europe.
You'll find that the EU only seems to "fix" issues which are caused by too much government in the first place.
How are trade disputes caused?
Why is the EU needed, for people to move and live, in another country? How were hundreds of thousands of Poles able to settle in the UK in the late 1940s, without the EU?
Yes, you are right, greetings from the EU 😜🤣
Future for UK… I see a dependency of India.
We never had Brexit. For instance VAT, which is an EU invention, should be abandoned as it is complex for small businesses and favour large businesses; maybe the intention is to favour large businesses? We should also lower Corporation tax to 10%. The graphics of 14% shortfall does not include the Covid-19 effect; numbers should be compared to the rest of the developed EU like Germany; not as a total, as countries like Romania have a large growth due to a emerging economy status. God help us with "experts" like in this video
God? That explains a lot.
VAT replaced the UK's "Purchase Tax", which had been introduced in the 1940s and the rate of which depended on the kinds of goods taxed! How was that less "complex for small businesses". Explain.
You had the Brexit people voted for. So learn to respect democracy and stop projecting your own idiotic nonsense on to other people. Lowering corporation tax does nothing except increase the government deficit as our current problems are not caused by taxes. Even with covid included or looking at individual countries the UK is still doing worse
Err no lots of countries had VAT before the EU was set up. In fact, 175 out of 193 countries globally have VAT so a bit daft to blame it on the EU. Also totally fine for you to argue for lower taxes, but to lower taxes you need a good chance of a thriving economy and having left the EU along with other damaging events like Covid, we’d have to substantially cut public services to lower taxes which doesn’t seem popular with voters. Sorry to hear you’re not happy with brexit but you were fooled by liars and morons into believing it was a good idea. Onwards and upwards, it’s done now.
God help us with armchair know alls! Brexit was leaving the EU and we left, so you are talking total rubbish. The VAT is being taken and used by the UK government nothing now to do with the EU THAT WE LEFT! None of the things you mention have a bearing on the EU which we left...........do I need to explain it any clearer?
UK DOES 82% OF ITS TRADE OUTSIDE THE EU...
What drove the 27% increase in intra EU trade. The UK leaving the EU. So makes a complete mockery of his statement saying the UK has missed out on this bonanza. It created it by leaving. What this presentation fails to address are the issues EU exporters are experiencing….remember, the EU has a large trade deficit in goods when it comes to trade with the UK. As for services……London is still the hub, and foreign businesses (as well as EU firms) are heading back. Fact.
The UK was only ever about 18% of EU trade so not a chance it can drive a 27% increase. Also the EU had a large surplus in goods with the UK. When people make a mistake they are desperate to justify it and believe it was the right decision. Get outside of the debate and listen to the world. The world can clearly see the mistake which was made.
If the UK were still in the EU one would think that the rise in value of trade would not be too dissimilar to the current EU to EU trade levels and EU to the world trade..
Yet the value of UK chemical exports to the EU has dropped by 12% while within the EU chemical trade has increase in value by 32%. No longer are we getting our share of EU business. Uk exports to the rest of the world did however increase by 13% making up the loss. EU sales to the rest of the world increased by 34%. This example along shows a stagnation in the UK while demand and exports in the EU greatly increasing.
Another example is miscellaneous manufacturing which would cover all our small businesses, UK exports to the EU down by a value of 30% and to the rest of the world down by 4%. While over in the EU values have grown by 9% and to the rest of the world by 1% Again this shows the UK losing out and stagnating in the small business area, while, near on 10% growth within the EU.
You brexiteers are not rational. Hard to watch. The increase you talk about was one off and keep in cosideration inflation amd the fact that it is energy only not goods or fruits and vegetables.
"What drove the 27% increase in intra EU trade." *INFLATION DUM8 DUM8*
Trade VOLUME has collapsed. You see - THIS is why you dont let the public decide complex things
What's happening to the German economy post Russian gas and Europe as a whole? The EU will fragment and the Euro cause centrifugal forces which break the EU apart. Best hope for the UK is a free trade treaty with the USA which means adopting US standards and transfer of the city financial institutions to New York. The UK will be a stellate of the USA. The 51st star on the flag.
Peter Whimster has a crystal ball, and says the EU is about to implode! Oh dear Peter, keep taking the medication.
Good analysis, must have been the first time I´ve heard someone say that the EU and/or Euro and/or Germany are about to collapse.
Any time soon, Peter. Tomorrow maybe ??? :))
Germany is doing great , nobody blames the war in Ukraine for anything like you do in Britain , you buy a liter of organic milk for 99 euro cents which is the equivalent of 70 p so you get the idea about the rest of the food , the Germans are driving brand new cars on a brand new highways , come and check this out , many Brit’s come and visit , it’s the truth. Europe is and always will be strong with or without you. In respect to a deal with the USA you have to hope Trump to win the election but will the democrats let him , now that’s a mystery. 😂
ive heard that from a lot before ahahah
What rubbish this little chap’s talking about! We exporting far more now than before. By the way Germany are in deep recession, we just need a proper U.K. government 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
You need more than that, old horse.
Who the fuck told you that you rabbit hahah hahahah hahahahaha
What is the term "deep recession" supposed to refer to? Explain!
Germany is now the 3rd largest world economy, up from 4th during the same period that the UK is down from 5th to 6th largest economy, (later this year it will fall to 7th below France.) By the way, do you enjoy eating turnip stew? Eventually your ration book will provide several servings per week per British resident.
@@herrglotzenschnitzengruber1510 Well said!