The UK Brexit Boom?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 มิ.ย. 2024
- Has trade with the EU really been badly effected following Brexit?
Gain insights into the complexities of EU/UK trade with Catherine McBride as she questions the conventional narrative that trade has been negatively impacted due to Brexit. In this thought-provoking analysis, Catherine navigates through fundamental yet often overlooked aspects of trade dynamics, shedding light on the implications of Brexit. Drawing from her wealth of expertise, she elucidates the pivotal role of individual companies in driving trade, emphasising the significance of consumer preferences and market dynamics.
Discover the intricate interplay between trade in goods and services, as Catherine unveils the nuanced factors influencing trade patterns post-Brexit, from supply and demand to price availability. Delve into the subtle yet impactful role of distance in shaping post-Brexit trade relationships, and explore the challenges inherent in accurately measuring trade volumes and values in the new economic landscape.
Join us for a comprehensive exploration of post-Brexit trade dynamics, as Catherine dissects sectoral performance disparities and assesses their broader implications for the UK economy in the aftermath of the EU departure. Gain a deeper understanding of the evolving landscape of EU/UK trade relationships post-Brexit and the strategic decisions driving economic outcomes. Subscribe now for more enlightening discussions and expert insights.
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The institute of economic lies
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Get over it, Brexit is done! Rule Britannia, Britannia rules the waves!!
@@jonjones6583 Well the EU has got over it. 😀😀😀
@@jonjones6583 britannia cannot even rule Northen Ireland anymore. The EU rules.
So Italy is more efficient/better in producing steel than the UK, and somehow the EU is to blame for that. Right, got it.
Who knew that all the car manufacturing companies in the UK are UK companies, and who knew you could talk about economics for 20 minutes without mentioning profit, not even once.
I've seen graphs that clearly show that the medium GDP in the EU got established at a considerably higher level than the UK after the pandemic. The EU recovered considerably after Covid. The present crisis in Germany is mainly due to a long term fuel dependence policy in relation to Russia and the necessity of finding quick alternatives due to the war in Ukraine. Brexiteers want us to believe that it's all down to Covid but tend to ignore that the most reasonible thing is to establish strong trade relations with your direct neighbours, something that has largely broken away because of Brexit. There are loads of testimonies of exporters that have moved out of the UK to save their business with the consequences of loss of jobs in Britain. As far as imports are concerned, it's also pretty obvious that it makes sense to get perishable produce from neighbouring countries nearby. Now obviously at a much higher cost.
Apart from all that, the EU doesn't only mean economic benefit but also sharing basic issues of a European identity. In the end, the EU goes back to a peace project.
@@hannofranz7973 The E is not any longer a "Peace Project". It was once, but the obsession with eastwards expansion in pursuit of cheap labour has resulted in a war that will be the EU's undoing. The arrogance is frightening.
@@paullarne
Complete nonsense.
It's practically impossible to see any EU country going to war with each other because they operate under a framework of cooperation and equal rights.
In contrast, brexit and its English nationalism only brought separation and conflict.
@@guleiro On the contrary it is perfectly possible to envisage the situation in which an EU Army would be used to oppress say Poland, or Hungary, or indeed the UK.
English Nationalism isn't really a thing, just that our geography has given us a different outlook which is why we were never a good fit in the EU once it became fixated on the centralisation of control in Brussels.
This is nonsense. Firstly, the speaker is cherry-picking to the extreme; and clearly being intentionally deceptive. She's presenting all kinds of figures about trade flow, but missing the forest for the trees - the overall longterm trend of increased tradeflow has very markedly reduced the past few years (ref e.g. FT reporting just this past week). Focusing on creatively framed small details that look OK without context at best is interesting from the perspective of identifying how it can be that some _aspects_ of trade aren't horrible despite the overall trend. Secondly, she's basically lying when she says "brexit happened" as a way to suggest that if we can't see the damage yet (in her example to beef trade) then brexit must be irrelevant. From a trade perspective Brexit isn't singular moment, it's a long drawn out process we're perhaps half way through - and specifically on beef, farmer's worries are due to bad _new_ trade deals that have replaced EU membership, and those rules haven't yet come into force. So yes, the brexit that seems to be in our rear view mirror will be the cause of quite a bit of future damage. Thirdly, she's misrepresenting covid related damage, again, surely intentionally. A disinterested observer might indeed be challenged to fully disentangle brexit effects from covid effects (or even effects from Russia's invasion). However, if you're trying to tell those causes apart, an obvious and necessary perspective is to look at similar countries. Here, the story is clear - similar economies did not see even close to the kind of persistent negative effects starting in 2020 that the UK is seeing - so that effect is far more likely to be caused by the concurrent departure from the single market, not by covid. Even today, despite being further from the front-line, the UK seems to be suffering more than most EU economies (barring perhaps notably Germany, and even there it's not clear) - likely because the UK is suffering not just from Russia's aggression, but _also_ from persistent brexit damage.
Cherry-picking data like this, playing Pinocchio about when and how Brexit would hit trade, and failing to make obvious comparisons to disentangle Brexit from Covid and Russia's invasion all paint a clear picture: she's being intentionally deceptive. No honest analyst could ever hold these views; this angle is clearly meant to be mislead listeners.
That's conclusive then, ignore the experts and listen to a person sat on chair showing us lines on a chart.
A load of cherry picked nonsense
Odd to see Doom spelled with a B.
Goldman Sachs said we're 4 - 5 % below where we would be if we'd stayed in. I doubt they said that because Sunpat didn't tidy his desk properly when he left.
It's not just about the amount of trade, it's how much that trade costs.
Goods trade has fallen as a proportion of EU goods trade. So EU goods trade has declined through lost trade that would otherwise have been there.
Like to know who funds this channel, but its top secret...
What I see on this chart @4:40 is, that goods deficit has increased, as we in EU correctly predicted before referendum, and therefore you had 0 leverage in trade negotiation.
The opposite of what brexiteers predicted...
We live in the North of England there are a ton of SME's outside the South East doing value added products with at least part of the components through the EU supply chain. Anyway in my immediate area the company my wife works for has massive delays huge tranches of paperwork and additional costs with a general downturn of -25%.
The craft Beer and Gin place lost their EU business overnight with no viable replacement due to paperwork red tape sky rocketing transport costs.
My friend's son plays in a show-band they toured France during the summer season that work is gone completely
My Brother lives in Norway and I can no longer send him an Xmas present
so as far as were concerned its sh1te the sooner were realigned the better
She's done no research on trade and distance whatsoever. Her remarks are contrary to the truth. There is a very strong correlation between trade and distance. R2=0.92 the last time I calculated it. Services are as dependent on distance as goods. The whole thing is ideological nonsense. Then it is the IEA.
Wow, the assumptions and omissions in this presentation are staggering 😂
UK farmers produce to higher standards than Australian farmed produce. I prefer the higher quality , quality rather than quantity, the nation's health relies upon the quality.
Sadly, All meat is not meat. US meat can be produced in 6 months with hormones, and UK meat can take up to two years for the same. The Fat and Chemical content of both products are distinct (to say the least). There is something to be said for Standards and the men.wemon with White Coats and clipboards. I never understood fully why regulation is bad, it just means food is safer and planes do not fall out of the sky.
Sadly the Tories want to deregulate so they can enable imports from the US with hormone filled beef and bleached chicken (yes the bleach you clean your sink with) Deregulation is actually about bigger profits for big business and never about benefits for the population as a whole.
@fransdigitalmediaservices3912
A re-education of the people is required. Consumerism has led the people to see quantity as the defining factor in food, that is a grotesque situation, where poor quality high profit food is produced using the Intensive farming techniques you describe, the chemicals and hormones you talk about do alot of damage to the environment and human health.
Just one thing missing. UK is still not fully out of the Single Market. Services left 1.1.2024 and the last one goes 1.6.2025. So the full hit from UK leaving the EU 🇪🇺 is yet to come. Patience people patience 🙄
It really doesn't matter what percentage of car exports go to non-EU countries. What really matters is how much profit are the British manufacturers left with after all the accounting is carried out. If the raw materials and critical value added components are imported from the EU to manufacture the cars in question then there's not really that big of a positive impact for the economy by leaving the EU.
Assembled, to be precise, there is no large scale car manufacturing left in the UK.
That may sound as nitpicking, but in fact emphasises the fact that the UK is part of an integrated production chain that now sees extra obstacles.
That might influence future decisions when it comes to new model production.
@@ab-ym3bf Indeed, because assembling needs just in time imports and exports. Some items go back and forth between many countries while being assembled.
There are no ‘British manufacturers’ because all of the UK companies are subsidiaries for companies from EU, Japan, India and USA.
@@louis-philippearnhem6959 If JIT slows that means having higher inventories to keep the lines flowing. Inventory is "dead money" and an additional cost hit to the bottom line.
Who funds you?
It's a "CHARITY" - So funded by donors (i.e. rich people with an incentive to get the results that help their business.)
@@proffessorclueless Rich people that had interrest in getting UK out from the "socialist" EU.
@@c.guibbs1238Yep, that's what I said.
It has been suggested elsewhere that The Institute of Economic Affairs is in reality nothing more then a “hard-right lobby group”.
It’s actually undisclosed for the most part but some libertarian business guy called AGAF
I will just say Disraeli. I think the EU offered a lot more to the average Brit. Ease of travel. Working in the EU. Workers coming to the UK with similar values. Similar qualifications. Scotland Nigeria nurses. If being out of the EU is so great why did the Pound fall in value? Fishermen are struggling to sell fish to the EU OK that's trivial on a global scale but is one example where Brexit did not work out.
You would hardly think we were in a recession, would you.
yet you are
Whilst I’d agree Brexit wasn’t as bad as some predicted it worries me that this video is selective and ignores vital facts like future market access and the long term effect this will have on areas like FDI as just one example. I’m still not optimistic but i would like to be proved wrong.
I would be concerned about the incremental decisions that companies will make about future investment and strategy. That can be a slow process but over time can be significant. Equally, the government can mitigate against it once it knows it is happening. Also Worth noting, that Ireland was allways treated as an appendage to the larger UK market prior to the Single Market 1992. the risk is that Non EU companies will see the UK as an extra bonus market once they have secured a foothold in the UK.
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Speak for yourself we live in the North of England there are a ton of SME's outside the South East doing value added products with at least part of the components through the EU supply chain. Anyway in my immediate area her company has massive delays huge tranches of paperwork and additional costs with a general downturn of -25%.
The craft Beer and Gin place lost their EU business overnight with no viable replacement due to paperwork red tape sky rocketing transport costs.
My friend's son plays in a show-band they toured France during the summer season that work is gone
My Brother lives in Norway and I can no longer send him an Xmas present
so as far as were concerned its sh1te the sooner were realigned the better
@@SlowhandGreg
I get what you’re saying and I’m certainly no advocate of Brexit but I thought it was going to be even worse. We need to re join the Single Market and or Customs Union.
@igitalmediaservices3912 Apparently all those companies that moved to the Netherlands and Ireland did it because they're gay, or something.
Services? You mean money stolen from the public purse going to tax havens?
Where are the graphs showing the boom in food banks, the graph showing that our pay is worse now than in 2006 and the graph showing the percentage decrease in investment in each of the public services ? These should all have benefited from the IEA's booming Britain. But she's right! Brexit has been an enormous success - for the top 1%.
👍
3:25 The UK contributed £100 million of tax payer's money to Nissan's £1 billion electric vehicle hub in Sunderland, opened in 2022.
And the UK government contributed £210 million of tax payer's money to Rolls-Royce's SMR development.
All we have to do is spend infinite taxpayers' money on -bribes- incentives and we'll have more jobs than we know what to do with.
ADD TO THIS THE ACTUAL ONGOING CONSEQUENCIAL COSTS OF BREXIT AND THE CHARTS WOULD SEEM TO PAINT A VERY DIFFERENT PICTURE! WHY NOT ALSO FEATURE THE LACK OF UK GROWTH POST-PANDEMIC COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES WITHIN THE EU?
I'm not sure who they are trying to convince?
I presume that Tariff charges are part of general taxation that supports government spending. If tariffs are eliminated, who then is left to pay that portion of Government income.
Oh great, so England is booming after Brexit. Good to know..
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Yeah great! And there was me thinking we were all fkd. That's what I get for believing my own lying eyes.
If your rich you have done very well, its everyone else that has suffered, but the right wing never care a toss for everyone else except at election time.
yes this silly lady is talking total rubbish normal for these tufften street loons ..jeff
Can you feel the Brexit boom?
Would like to know how many of these "economists" have read Adam Smith's The Theiry of Moral Sentiments.
Lies , damn lies, statistics... and Brexiters.
You need to look at the small export companies to see if brexit has improved their order books.
It seems that she has found lots of ways to tell us to ignore our own personal direct experience of the "achievements" of Brexit and simply believe her "analysis" that everything is going swimmingly well. No doubt she is a much better economist than those of Goldman Sachs and the IMF for instance.
If she worked for me and produced this kind of analysis, I would fire her.
What about companies like Dyson who design here but get a 3rd party to manufacture in a different country. Is that goods or services? It's not explained in the first third of the video.
Whilst it's important to remember who are funders of the Institute of Economic Affairs it's also worth bearing in mind that their personnel are a well-educated bunch of professionals and academics who are passionate in the pursuit of accurate information. Whether or not you remain pro- or anti-Brexit after hearing this, you can't say you haven't been told.
Sorry but farmers, fish industry, car manufacturers are out of jobs steel what crap is this
Don't mention that bit. We didn't those industries anymore.
No mention on small business or fishing industry
I don't know who gave this video the title "The Brexit Boom?" - i guess someone who didn't watch it! A better description would be "Brexit - less economic impact than expected?"
Graphs like at 7:09 are not particularly encouraging, as they seem to show exports barely keeping up with inflation, rather than growing.
I don't like the way the concerns of farmers were used to promote Brexit, but now they aren't being listened to by the government since then. Remain-voters and the government of 2015/16 were told to listen to their concerns and take them seriously, and now in this video farmers' concerns are dismissed as they should be "more efficient"
Who funds the IEA?
Vlad the Impaler from Moscow
You will never know. It would be to embarrassing for the IEA.
BP, Shell, BAT, The Heritage Foundation.
"Our donors must have their pivacy protected". - Emily Carver, head of media for the IEA.
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This is pure comedy. I`d laugh if it were`nt so serious. `The big blue line and the big red line`, WTF.
British,export are down import are up more ask, farmer , small business, fish, all industries, plus music, living standards are down next to the rest of all eu ,it sh,,,all new deals were the same or worse,,, liars ,who paying this woman ?
Electioneering from the Tories' favourite Tufton Street parasitical lobbyist.
UK car production was 1.7 million in 2016, its now 930,000. All due to Brexit ? No. Partly due to Brexit? Yes
The Institute of Economic Affairs.... the kind of institution that reinforces the reputation of Economics as "The Dismal Science".
Catherine McBride - someone for who there is no excuse.
She seemed abit too cheerful when she said "ruined British farming"...
How on earth is it the taxpayer paying for the costs of export in your fantasy story? There's no clarification on that loose remark.
Brexit was never about the money.
That woman sounds like a spy.
From the people who brought us Liz Truss 🎉🎉🎉
Boom 💥 indeed
Yeah right
agree is been good for the super rich
Really? I suspect it's been bad even for most of those. Only a few disaster capitalists benefited here; most will have lost (even if their losses are largely irrelevant to their lives, unlike those of the lowly peons that get to suffer for the mistakes of their superiors).
And that’s why you can’t believe a word these deluded people say.
good luck on your fantasy economy god uk people is getting scud but dont worry you can always blame it on everybody else
And zero checks on EU imports to date ..
Race to the bottom lying ahead for English farmers … and consumers .. methinks
Tastes like cherry flavoured cake to me 🍒
😂
Lies damn lies and statistics.
Politically motivated from start to finish, but trying very hard to sound unbiased , who is finding this waffle.?
The pseudo economic agency
Institute of Coal, Oil and Gas funded
The institute of economic lies ,brexit leaves us all poor
This is nonsense almost every point is wrong I wouldn’t know where to start
What is the point UK is not a manufacturer country
there are millions of SME jobs just because there not in the South East doesn't mean there not vital to the UK economy
The IEA want to turn the UK into a Libertarian sh1th0le for the top 5% and screw everyone else
#8 in the world. Before Brexit #6.
This is a massive load of wishful thinking
Food prices up due to Brexshit
She should be PM
😂
I don't see this getting much traction because the NIMBYS won't here of it
As an economist let me tell you this is bullshit. The assumptions are 😮😮
Delusional !!!!
Ahh ahh is it that dark money “think tank” ? Is there any other one more discredited than you ? Come on whoever listen to you now?
Accounts of companies are publoc record. Ignore the message if you will, don't change facts foe the spurced information being presented
IEA are rated D, 2nd lowest for transparency of funding, by Open Democracy.
Nice work.
From an economic perspective, or from a pro-Brexit propaganda point of view?
Do you think that this is a fair analysis on current UK/EU trade? To view the whole debate, watch the full recording here: th-cam.com/video/Gq0UhNZtqAw/w-d-xo.html
Do you? Tell us. And while you are at it, tell us who is funding you.
No. It is an analysis working towards a preset outcome.
@@ab-ym3bf you can find the full debate here: th-cam.com/video/Gq0UhNZtqAw/w-d-xo.html
There's a report at the Resolution Foundation called "Ending Stagnation" its written by economists living in the real world I suggest you read it
@@iealondon and would following that full debate lead to a different conclusion from what I said? Didn't think so.
More likely you are using my post as a coat hanger for another video.
What a charlatan channel!
Oh dear I seem to have stepped in a nest of remoaners again.
Nah. There‘s money to be made in Brexit, but if you listened to these political hacks, you‘d lose your shirt.
This is the message that needs to be put out to the masses
indeed britain is suffering
Why, because they absorp every lie presented to them?
Great video. Confirms Brexit was good for the UK. Imagine if we could move towards becoming Singapore on Thames, reducing alignment to the EU?
confirms nothing....pro brexit IEA pick and choose the stats that gullible brexiteers want to see!
Singapore on Thames? What does that even mean? Well, it means removal of our workers rights, removal of many of our human rights and removal of many of the public services that so many depend upon.
There's plenty of money in the UK. The problem is that more and more and more of it is being concentrated in the pockets of a smaller and smaller number of ultra rich persons who are able to completely avoid taxation and then move that money offshore to tax havens.
Funnily enough, the EU was actually quite keen on putting a stop to this practice and was demanding that the UK put measures in place to prevent this practice from happening...
The EU shut that down within months of the Vote in 2016 and have been actively getting EU financial products transferred within the block why do you think our currency fell 30% against the Euro?
Next thing to go is 3.5 trillion in Euro clearing due now at end of 2025
And the rest of the UK?
what a big bunch of lies and ILLREPRESENTED facts!
“Nothing to see here”