Russian Strengths & Capabilities in Ukraine - Why Russia is still a threat in 2023
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ค. 2024
- Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine revealed significant issues with Russian planning, force structure and military culture. On this channel I've spent the better part of a year exploring some of those issues and helping to explain why, as suggested back in March 2022, this was (and is) a much closer war many analysts expected.
But it is equally important not to underestimate Russian strengths and capabilities. From information warfare to ammunition production and mobilisation potential, Russia has a suite of resources and capabilities that it can leverage.
Following a popular vote, in this episode I look at Russian military performance and capabilities in Ukraine, and why I believe it remains a major threat for Ukraine in 2023.
As you might expect, there won't be quite as many punchlines in this one.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats:
Many, many, many caveats - some of which I capture in this video.
My big ask is that this presentation not be taken out of context. A sober assessment of Russian capabilities is not the same as an assessment that Russia is likely win. Instead it represents a set of challenges that Ukraine will have to overcome - something I will look at further next week.
Sources:
RUSI - Preliminary Lessons in conventional warfighting...
rusi.org/explore-our-research...
RUSI - The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
rusi.org/explore-our-research...
"I live, I fight, I win" - a guide by the Russian Union of Veterans of Afghanistan and Special Military Operations (machine translation)
www.docdroid.net/5avzOQK/i-li...
Work of Covert Cabal counting Russian tanks in depots:
• How Many Tanks Does Ru...
• How Many Tanks Does Ru...
FMSO - The Russian way of War
www.armyupress.army.mil/porta...
Paper figures for RU military equipment are per MB2021 as always for consistency (though the omission of T-62 from paper reserve list is yet another point that causes me to raise a questionmark with that source)
TC 7-100.2 OPFOR tactics
armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pu...
Variety of public statements and interviews given by officers and troops involved in the fighting in Ukraine. Examples include:
Interview with Ukrainian artillery officer at Bakhmut
• Top Ukrainian artiller...
Interview with Ukrainian pilot by thedrive
www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...
I would also like to extend a personal thanks to those who consulted directly on the preparation of this presentation, including those Ukrainians who agreed to provide input on the challenges they still face.
I hope to receive permission to credit at least some of these in the future.
Credit to social media and OSINT based sources as normal, in particular Julia Davis of Russia Media Monitor for her work monitoring and translating Russian media, and, of course, loss aggregators and geolocators.
Timestamps
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:57 - What Am I Talking About?
00:02:47 - A Note on Sources
00:03:39 - RUSSIAN INFORMATION WARFARE
00:03:53 - Contradictions
00:06:52 - What Does This Achieve?
00:08:58 - Leveraging Legacy?
00:10:14 - BELARUS
00:11:23 - COMBAT PERFORMANCE
00:11:53 - The Poor Mobik Trope
00:13:53 - Russia's Hard Edge
00:18:26 - Let's Not Get Ahead of Ourselves
00:19:29 - FIRE SUPERIORITY
00:19:44 - Russian Artillery Retains the Advantage
00:26:24 - STRATEGIC LOGISTICS
00:26:35 - Wait What? Russia & Logistics?
00:27:27 - Logistics at the Strategic Level
00:34:23 - Adaptation
00:35:35 - Enabling Strategic Manoeuvre & Sustainment
00:36:40 - TECHNOLOGICAL EDGE
00:36:48 - The Product of Modernisation
00:38:10 - Ukraine Is Not All Bling
00:39:02 - THE EDGE IN THE AIR
00:39:24 - An Asymmetric Fight
00:42:08 - BVR
00:43:57 - A Realised Advantage
00:45:01 - NAVAL EDGE
00:45:09 - The Black Sea Situation
00:46:09 - A Strategic Handicap
00:46:45 - AN ASYMMETRY OF REACH
00:46:50 - Russia's Long Reach
00:48:22 - From Lancet to Iskander
00:50:10 - A One-Way Tax
00:50:56 - RUSSIA CAN LEARN
00:51:12 - Evidence of Adaptation
00:53:29 - ENDURANCE
00:53:40 - Regeneration & Reconstitution
00:53:58 - Casualty Tolerance
00:55:43 - The Manpower Pool
00:57:21 - Equipment Reserves
01:00:53 - Industrial Mobilisation
01:01:58 - Adaptation
01:02:53 - Regression and Output
01:04:50 - CONCLUSIONS: The Threats to Ukraine
01:05:55 - CONCLUSIONS: Russia is Not a Broken Force
01:06:31 - CONCLUSIONS: Overcoming Russian Advantages
01:08:03 - CONCLUSIONS: An Enduring Threat
01:08:17 - Channel Update
I appreciate the reality check on “never underestimate the ability of your opponent to persist.” 💜
I'm glad you put this out, the worst mistake Ukraine and NATO can make is assuming that Russia is spent
In fact, russia is stronger than it was at the beggining of the war. Its' economy is decoupling from the west, it is searching for new partners in the east and it is upping up military production. While ukraine is bleeding hard and the west is now reduced to running around the world and begging for equipment.
@@unknowngamer9198 It has China's hand so far up its rear, Xi's fingers are poking out of Putin's mouth. Russia transformed from a glorified armed gas-station to a puppet of China through Putin's misplaced confidence in his military. Russia's labor force is puny, its demographics are terminal, and its economy is BUILT on trade with the West, which it has just thrown away. They're hemorrhaging equipment and soldiers faster than they can replace them, and they hold significantly less of Ukraine now than they did four months ago. But keep telling everyone about how they're winning. Gotta earn your rubles somehow, right?
@@unknowngamer9198 the cope has surfaced
@@unknowngamer9198
Awesome, 3 sentences and not a single true statement.
@@warzagg5022 europe got one of the best birthrates in europe, while the most popular name in the eu will soon be mohamed. Russia and china are natural allies, russia is a commodity produced and china is a massive industrial power, this cooperation will benefit them greatly.
I have heard so many stories about Pvt. Conscriptovich that I feel like I know him. He's pretty unfortunate to keep being sent to the front in all these dangerous situations, but lucky that he keeps making it out alive.
Pvt Petrov Petrovich Pandemich was hectic
"These troops have shown some value... sent forward to draw Ukrainian fire and help identify positions". Yikes! 😬
"The Good Soldier Švejk"
Its a shame that Pvt. Kleptomaniactovich took all the plate carriers and first aid kits. Truly an uncool move
@@issintf925 Pvt. Kleptomaniactovich must be the one who stole the armour from the Russian tanks. Yet maybe the Russian tankers found a solution? Some say they plan to use stolen *toilets* for *ceramic armour.*
I spent 17 years as a Professional Soldier. Allow me to say that in the world of Information , I truly see your contribution as a "Force Multiplier" So Damn good job . You do the Aussie's proud. I wish you Good health , Blessing's to your Family and my sincere respect. Slava Ukraine
And this is why the West is losing...
Idiots like this.
Slava cocaine
One of Mark Twain's best aphorisms:
"A Lie can get halfway around the world before The Truth has put on its shoes."
Power relies on lies before the truth causes regime change.
With social and mainstream media ...
If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.
Joseph Goebbels
“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.”
~Mark Twain.
I agree completely except that "the lie" may not... Will NOT... stop at "Half-Way" around the world... it can encircle and trap The 🌎 for thousands of years if not longer. So engrained into the way things are, no-longer "The Lie" Will, or even Could-Be... considered "a Lie" but simply the way things are. Generations will live and pass-on to next-generations so the perception of "a Lie" is extinguished and will remain that way... until...
"The Truth" ... FINALLY ... "put(s) on its shoes." ... 👼
But for that to happen...
You need somebody(s) a little... 😜... and completely Fearless... 🥷
can you do it?... 😁
The immense struggle I have every Sunday between getting enough sleep for work in the morning or immediately watching an hour long slideshow on military analysis. You can guess which one always wins.
The video will always be there. Sleep
Watch it tomorow after work
Lol I normally wake up around 4am and the videos normally drop about 3 hours after I wake up. This morning I slept in and woke up at 5:30 and immediately starting scrolling TH-cam to see if there was a chance it was already up lol
@@jigsaw6954
Watch it tomorrow DURING work 🙃
Enjoy your sleeping while you can.
I'm not sure if it's a suitable topic for the channel, but the press around Wagner over the last couple months has made me very interested in the culture, psychology, and propaganda sides of mythologization of elite military units (Seal Team 6, Spetznaz, SAS, etc.) and how that compares to their actual battlefield impact at this scale.
@@TabletopWargamer Can you clarify what you mean by that? I'm not clear on what analogy you're referring to.
@@TabletopWargamer If I understand you, you think that I'm parroting media causing me to believe that Wagner is elite, and comparing them to other elite units, but that's not the case.
Wagner is obviously not comparable in terms of capabilities, nor of morality. I'm suggesting that they are similar in the possibility for mythos to build up around them, disproportionate to their actual impact on the battlefield.
The section of this video that covers Wagner and the VDV is subtitled "Russia's Hard Edge", and that terminology speaks to the reputation that modestly successful units develop.
"Russia's Hard Edge" is immediately followed by "Let's not get ahead of ourselves", and basically I'm curious about an expansion of that section.
It's not a new cultural phenomenon, even in WWI, Manfred von Richtofen and the Flying Circus were renowned and feared, even though realistically their impact on the war was minor. I'm interested in a similar exploration of the possibility of hyperbole around Wagner and other units *perceived* to be elite, rightly or wrongly. To what extent are they effective on the battlefield, vs to what extent are they firmly average in effectiveness, and excelling in PR/propaganda.
@@TabletopWargamer Look, I’m as pro-Ukrainian as it gets, but it would be foolish for anyone to claim that Wagner isn’t substantially more effective (excluding the prisoners) than Russian regulars. They get priority in equipment and training and have been getting it for a while.
And it’s not like we don’t use mercenary groups in our wars as well. Ours don’t have anywhere near the same level of cooperation and collusion as Wagner has with the Russian government, but we used them extensively in Iraq to feign lowering the total troops/casualties in country.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 and they have the advantage of not adhering to any ethics. They can use convicts to draw fire, act as human baits abd execute prisoners with sledgehammers. They remind me a bit of Arkans tigers in Yugoslav wars. A crime lord who fielded his own paramilitary unit.
@@TabletopWargamer If I understand correctly, portions of the Wagner group, are retired members of the special operation units, much like CIA's special operation teams. These echelons seem to be supplied with the state of the art equipment as well. Considering that they've been deployed to Bakhmut since last spring/summer, with unchanging intensity of combat, there is probably no unit in the world with more experience fighting in this particular scenario. I think that makes them elite, regardless of how anybody feels about it. The original question is legitimate.
That pivot when Perun goes "I'd argue it's a feature, not a bug." is one of those quintessentially Perun tongue in cheek phrases that keeps me coming back for more, 11 months later
it blows me away how perun has been knocking out these well researched hour long plus PowerPoints that are interestingly presented on such a regular pace it's genuinely impressive
Agreed, and he does all this in addition to his day job. Very impressive.
I’m pretty sure his day job is basically the same thing
Not really, never states anything other than the obvious
@@devondetroit2529
Muahahaha! Yeah, i`m sure you`d go a way much better job at it if you`d tried.
Silly Russian troll, better go back to jerking off, i bet ura true champ at that.
I’ve started sending these to my work team as examples of how to present findings.
I've never been much into military strategy or logistics in my life, but the way Perun discusses the war without sensationalizing the events and his straightforward honesty about the situation on both sides has made such an overwhelming and depressing situation much more understandable and nuanced. Just want to say thank you for constantly pumping out such well researched and thoughtful content on such a regular basis.
Especially in the modern world, you need to be intelligent enough to sift through the mountains of bullshit to get to actual, verifiable information.
It reminds me so much of Army presentations, where the empthasis was on learning, with pure facts.
@@manofwar577 makes sense, given that Perun is an Aussie defense analyst, if I’m not mistaken.
No doubt if I am, someone will correct me 😂
@@andybonner4730 damn really? I just thought he was a very thorough and talented nerd
@@PercocetPete If you think about it nerds make the best analysists. They are very good at testing and researching over and over until they come to the best method of achieving a task, whether it be a game or war PowerPoints. Hell he even said he had ran out of space in the description for sources lol
Talking about how seemingly weak or ineffective armies still possess positive capabilities is important I think so it's a welcome video to see. Reminds me of some analysis I read about Coalition Provisional Authority Order 2, the order that dissolved the Iraqi army. Specifically, that by disbanding the entire Iraqi military it got rid of a huge swathe of experienced logistics officers and established capabilities that it had to rebuild from scratch later on.
Of course that infamous Order did far worse than just needing rebuilding from scratch. It left all those humiliated, militarily trained, patriotic young men without jobs so those experienced logistics officers were soon arranging supply for a quite different sort of army. US arrogance and aggression there had similar results to Russian arrogance and aggression.
Worse, it put a huge amount of trained soldiers (and the entire civil service) out of a job. Sheer chaos. Tons of prime candidates for recruitment into insurgencies who could pay them.
To say it was idiotic is a vast understatement.
Edit: someone I talked to who was there, in the military, said that things were staying together until that happened. Then they went to 💩.
I remember when I first subbed to this channel and there was around 35k subscribers. Now it's over 355k subscribers. This goes to show the thirst for knowledge is substantial and I thank Perun for helping us gain knowledge without as much bias as you can find in many channels on TH-cam!
Thanks to Perun I went from thinking "The fact that the Ukrainian late Bronze age army could push one of the most advanced and strong armies back to its borders with just sticks, stones, a few Ottoman planes and cheap Chinese drones from the Ming Dynasty is remarkable", to finally understanding something about the situation and what caused it.
Perun, your work is amazing and very well presented. Keep up the good work!
Lol!
This isn't EU4 vs today lol
"a few ottoman planes and cheap Chinese drones from the Ming Dynasty"
this is now my favorate phrase
Ottoman jokes aside. Ukraine has proven to be lethal for Russian expansionist empire, just like Chechnians. But this time imagine 40 million Chechnians fully backed by Western arms. The only end to this war is Ukrainians breakthrough and Crimea bieng cut off. Followed by possible tactical nukes by Russia 🇷🇺 and full on double down involvement by NATO. Escalating to nuclear weapons use by both sides.
"The fact that the Ukrainian late Bronze age army could push one of the most advanced and strong armies back to its borders with just sticks, stones, a few Ottoman planes and cheap Chinese drones from the Ming Dynasty is remarkable"
Who told you that? CNN, NBC? :D
Dude the ukrainian military was one of the strongest in Europe before 2022 even though they lacked of highly modern equipment... Abd they were heavily built up by the US since 2014.
I voted for this topic because I want to make sure I'm not living in a pro-Ukraine echo chamber. Thanks for always being there for us, Perun.
Edit: Because some people misunderstood the comment, I mean that I spend a lot of on Twitter and NCD where I hear entirely pro-Ukraine messaging. I want to get a good look at Russia's capabilities outside the memes. Слава Україні.
There was no reason to throw the bots red meat like this. The various points made could have been distributed across many videos instead, at whichever point they were germane to the topic at hand. I strongly suspect the bots are going to make sure this is the most-watched, most-shared and most referred-to video of Perun's by far, thus making it a notable if not key victory in their battle to weaken Western and especially American support for aid to Ukraine.
@@dixonpinfold2582
Yup I kinda agree with you.
Pro-Russian bots and trolls are trying to influence certain TH-cam videos algorithms, just to push their narratives.
It's also ridiculous that "our satanic" internet and freedom of speech is constantly used against us.
@@dixonpinfold2582
Except this isn’t really red meat but poisoned meat.
It contains many stipulations that the Russian military, with a tech, economic, logistic, resource and territory advantage still failed to fulfil its main objective.
Additionally, the idea that “more well equipped/modern equipped Ukrainians” as a key tipping point against Russian forces are further reinforced by this point.
Another added factor is that this would essentially be a gateway for watching other videos, so that many individuals who will then take Peruns logical standpoint and analysis and see that indeed, Russia has the weaker hand here.
Overall, I would say it further reinforces the need for Ukraine to receive supplies, as the Russians still have teeth, which can be blunted by those deliveries.
@@dixonpinfold2582 Weaken western support? THERE IS NO WESTERN SUPPORT. There is only the appearance of support. Half-measures designed to ensure that Ukraine does not lose too quickly. Western support would be Biden standing up and announcing that the Defense Production Act is now in effect, and that the United States is sending 1000 Abrams, with DU armor, to Ukraine. Wake me up when that happens.
@@dixonpinfold2582 ironically you are wrong. The biggest danger for Ukraine is pro-Ukraine propaganda. After all if Ukrainians are just smashing Russia and Russia is a bunch of drafted peasants who are running out of ammunition then why send them more modern weapons?
Thank you for a balanced situational report. It's otherwise hard to get such down to earth yet detailed analysis. It feels that it has become common to write Russia off even as it advances and is obviously learning and preparing jumping off points for further attacks.
But I read Russians can't even jump! :p
@Perun is not objectively balanced at all. That is the problem with analysis anywhere without having actual evidence to compare your assertions to. Furthermore the compliments people receive for being balanced ignore the truth, which is more important than balance.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_balance
@@patricklosi3358 Thanks for saying this and the link; I guess Wikipedia can't be dismissed here as evil Putin propaganda. So prepare for ad hominem or just being ignored. ;)
People are flogging like birds to channels like this, praising themselves for doing more than watching the news - but I seldom see any attempt in critical thinking; on most sides! :)
@@crustaceuslobsterborn3498 I like humorous lobsters! :)
@@crustaceuslobsterborn3498 That claim however much I wish it was true seems unlikely. No troops lost in 2023? While the ability to adapt is a basic human function. The problem with their command structure is pretty ingrained but some individual units seem to be doing a bit better.
Thanks for keeping it real. Your content is always fresh and relevant, I look forward to the weekly vid and the comments the subscribers post as well.
Fun fact: The commander of Russia's Railway Troops has been in that position since 2010. I'm really starting to see that all these political and military leadership positions are like some sort of modern feudalism thanks to your last vid. It's like instead of ruling over territory, they rule over specific roles in the government.
yeah this is how all large organizations start act after a certain point. Refusal to work together because Team A might get more money/prestige than Team B. Even though a stronger Team A whole point is to make sure Team B can't be attacked. Classic example is the Nuclear triumphant in the US military. Each branch has its own separate nuclear arm even though at this point only the Nuclear Submarine fleet makes any real sense. Nearly impossible to destroy before launch, can fire from nearly anywhere, can fire ballistic or cruise missile to evade missile interception. Additional safety feature that if something goes terribly wrong the whole sub can be scuttled to the depths.
This also means that said person is really dug in. There are probably a shit-ton of undocumented procedures that only he can do or knows about. And he has likely set up the system so that each sub-area manager hates the other ones.... This person needs to be escorted out of a window ASAP.
@@steverogers8163 Silo based nuclear missiles fulfil a very vital role in that they exist as priority targets for enemy nukes, drawing fire away from population centres.
@@steverogers8163 Nuclear bombers have the major advantage that they can be launched on warning, stay within friendly territory and then easily recalled if that warning is proved to be false - but once missiles are fired, they cannot be recalled with any reliability.
@@LtPulsar That makes an unsetlling amount of sense. War mentality is very weird.
Lots of good side jokes in that one - my favorite: "Given that the Ukrainian air force apparently has a respawn time, I don't know how Russia intends to wins this battle of the war"
In my experience, they are going to need a 2L of shasta, an all rush mix tape, and a large mat mouse pad.
@@First-Last_name 😂
Ghost of kiev was a pure fiction lad fairytales dont win wars.
@@odinbiflindi what lol
@@odinbiflindi Ghost of kiev was a meme from NonCredibleDefense. Not their fault people took it seriously instead of like a story from The Onion.
Extremely good video. Every Western leader should watch this and understand what they are up against and that they need to up their game.
All this type of beginings are always small and frustating. Same thing happened with the USA help for UK during the early parts of WWII. My hope and things indicate as such that this is but the begining of the opening of the floodgates. All it always needs is a precedent.
Right. If only all the presidents and prime ministers would ignore all of their own cabinets and just watch this random guy's TH-cam videos, they could turn this conflict around and mop the floor with Russia. Man, you're so smart.
@@sullathehutt7720 In regard to russia it's doubtful any one fella on youtube would do a worse job then the current leadership, given how terrible they are at governing. The people in high places in russia are not chosen due to competence but due to blind loyalty to putin.
@@sullathehutt7720 To be fair, if Vladimir Putin had used 3rd party sources for information on his military's capabilities, maybe he would have realized invading Ukraine was a terrible idea. Same logic can be applied to Western countries. Just because the cabinet is a part of the government does not mean it is feeding the leaders reliable, unbiased information.
@@binbows2258
How exactly do you figure it was a "terrible idea?" Russia is doing fine. The Ruble is doing well. NATO and America, on the other hand, are not looking so good.
Wonderful that you take such care and integrity in listing your sources, Perun. It is one of a multitude of factors that make your work so professional, credible and trustworthy.
As always you've left me better informed. The fact that Russia can adapt and lift their industrial base may be uncomfortable to hear, but being uncomfortable and correctly informed is better than being uninformed and blissfully ignorant. Many thanks.
I remember reading from Eric Flint's 1632 series a piece of sage advice: never underestimate your enemy because some of them still have a smart brain in them...
@AMechanicalSoul yes, we have to back Ukraine, because there are two possible outcomes. 1. Ukraine gets support from the west, Russia loses millions and Ukraine takes about half as many losses. Russia collapses and millions of Russians die.
2. Ukraine support declines, more Ukrainians die, more Russians die, both nations collapse and more civilians die.
@AMechanicalSoul an out of control burning clown car... is still several hundred kilos of metal moving at 12+ kph that is also on fire.
sLAvA uKaRaiNE!!!
@cheekybastard99 It's "Sláva *Ukrayíni".* Or "Слава Україні" if you prefer Cyrillic.
Yes, I know what alt caps mean.
🇺🇦💙Heróyam sláva!💛🇺🇦
It's funny... we talk so much about "death by powerpoint", but your powerpoint presentations on TH-cam are stellar, well-done, informative, and your presentation keeps the viewers engaged. Most excellent!
He can really do a class on how to do PowerPoints without audiences falling asleep. My manager could really use it.
@@dejectedfrogcat2840 100%
To paraphrase top gun, its not the presentation it’s the presenter
I've sat through plenty of power points throughout my education and professionally. Even power points that are my job aren't anywhere as engaging as Perun's.
Stalin once had 40,000 pieces of artillery and self-propelled guns. Putin is a pale imitation of his hero.
Great work, the team working on the video & research needs to be applauded 👏
We’ll respect to Ukraine for making so much happen with so little. This video really adds to the respect of Ukraine for me.
You respect corrupt Nazis? You know Ukraine has 10s of thousands of self avowed Nazi white supremacist in its military. Do some research before supporting something or someone.
Ukraine is loosing, what are you talking about...Ukrainian army is almost wiped, it's basically foreign volunteers fighting in Ukraine.
As I see it and hear it, it's like 1 Russian soldier = 10 Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield.
@@BIOSHOCKFOXX okay but that’s not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about everything that got them to this point so far? Which shouldn’t have even happened according to most analysts. But also never heard of this so likely you’re making it up. Bue
@@BIOSHOCKFOXX 1 Soldier from Russian equals 10 Ukrainians soldiers? You’d think the attack on Kiev would have went a lot smoother then? Please stfu with your trash propagandist lies
Gonna actually report your comment from showing false info bye Bye
Ukraine was and is being propped up by NATO. They aren't as impressive as the media is projecting.
If someone had told me, after I watched "All Bling, no Basics", that in January 2023 I would be waiting every Sunday for a new powerpoint presentation appearing in my notifications ........ well you can guess what I would have said. Thank you so much for continuing this impressive output on such a regular basis.
me too, even the comments are worth the read.
As a recommendation: you could make a pastebin that is your "source document", and just link that in the youtube description, so you can include as much as you want without issues of the youtube description size limit.
Or to keep them with the video, put them at the end of the video as lines of text. They won't be clickable, but they will stay with the presentation.
Relying on an external site is ehhhh. How about just using a pinned, locked comment with the sources?
@@abdulmasaiev9024 Pastebins are reliable repositories and are commonly used. Typically they are supported by FOSS, involve next to no expense to maintain and FOSS organizations tend to survive indefinitely although sometimes are sold into other entities. References can be stored as comments too, it's up to whether it's so extensive it becomes an obstacle or not as part of the comments.
He won't because all his sources are western military. His bias is ridiculous.
@@patb5266 Uh, he includes all his sources now, he just commented on a formatting change to fit more into the description, lol. Troll elsewhere please.
Still the best videos breaking down this conflict. @Perun, you're quite remarkable mate.
Great work Mr P!!
Love your work mate!
I look forward to your episodes every week. And set aside an hour to enjoy them. 😁
I think a lot of us in the West have trouble even imagining places like where most of the Russian soldiers are coming from. People in Moscow or St. Petersburg get enough information to know how full of sh*t their government is but in the poorer, more rural and isolated parts of Russia people still largely depend on state television to know about the world.
So...they're Mongols. They use prisoners in the first wave to soak up the mines and sniper fire and then the actual "soldiers" go in later. Genghis Khan did the same thing.
Absurd talk, the russians are in general thoughtful and aware people. The worst case in Russia can be found in the US, China, India, EU and other places. Get real.
The media in the west lies to its people all the time. WMD in iraq anybody? Covering up Ukraines atrocities and the causes of war and only emphasizing Russian atrocities. Ignoring altogether other major conflicts such as Ethiopia and yemen that have killed far more people than ukraine . We are just as manipulated by our state media complex as the Russians. We get outraged at what we are told to get outraged at. Perun's work and analysis is excellent but he will never do a video about Ethiopia or Yemen because he is told not to care by the state media complex. No ethiopian or Yemen flags on people's social media. Western governments are just as controlling and everything in the USA is monitored, it is more of a surveillance state than Russia. It's a tough pill to swallow but just because the other side wears a black hat doesn't mean you are wearing a white one.
@@thomaskaplan4898 The almost infantile and very uninformed ideologic bias in Peruns reporting is disqualifying - I'm sad to say. Even though he actually gives some nuanced information on the strictly military matters.
If you think their propaganda is bad, look at the west's
As I've said before, the astounding thing was not that Ukraine did so well, but rather that Russia did so poorly *despite* its many apparent advantages. On paper, this should have been as easy for Russia as they made it out that it would be. The fact that it wasn't is, and remains, a major embarrassment.
But that doesn't mean those advantages disappeared. They are still a formidable fighting force- just not necessarily one that's a near-peer of the U.S., as they have repeatedly sold themselves.
Do you think the germans could have penetraited the maignot line?
@@armaniwebb4467 What does that have to do with his comment?
@@r.u.s.e3586 because eastern ukraine is the maignot line on steroids:
"On March 9, Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko said Ukraine was reinforcing the system of defense in its eastern regions. "We are building a strong, deeply echeloned system of fortification structures in the east," he said. The press centre of the military operation said it was planned to build two defensive perimeters "to prevent enemy penetration into Ukraine’s territory." According to the press service, it was planned to build about 1,500 kilometres of trenches and communication trenches, more than 8,000 entrenchments for heavy weapons, more than 4,000 bunkers and a 60-kilometre-long fence of passive obstacles."
Thanks mate. Great breakdown once again. Dingkum knowledge well presented. Probably the best analysis of all of these vlogs and blogs. Being an old bullet stopper you get used to being uninformed and past it. I spend way too much time listening to the war in Ukraine. Ironically, I still feel better informed now than when wearing scratches.
Thank you for covering this. It's important to understand how complicated wars and fighting forces can be, i.e. Russia can have performed as poorly as they have so far, and still be capable of winning and even laying the smack down.
And if you care about Ukraine winning (which I do), or simply want to fight against the culture of "Vranyo", an honest assessment of your enemies' capabilities is a must.
You rock, Perun. My dad called you a hero, by the way, when I told him you were putting out these vids weekly.
@Hans Schmulke hush. Dont make him sad.
@Hans Schmulke Which wave is Russia on now? Yea enough said
@Hans Schmulke is that why they mobilized for the first time since the second world war MONTHS ago? Because they are on the first wave? Lmao ok buddy
@Hans Schmulke Tell me where you got the number of 14K KIA from. If you think that is the scale of Russian losses you are literally just reporting what the Russian MOD said
@Hans Schmulke Ah that team. That is not how they are counting the total KIA of the war so far but the number of troops Russia has admitted they have lost and sent back home to their grieving families.
I always look forward to Perun's weekly update on Private Konskriptovich.
Poor old Pvt Konscriptovitch has been through a lot so far. Alas poor Konscript Konscriptovitch I suspect there's a lot more to come. Hopefully they shoot more of their own officers and book it for freedom.
There should be a comic book on these characters
@@allamasadi7970 Imagine a Terminal Lance style set of stories about Private Konscrpitovich and Colonel Kleptovsky.
@@allamasadi7970 Beau Peep is a comic book about 4 French foreign Legion servicemen serving in West Africa. It has the titular legionnaire Peep, a bully, a drunk cook who made terrible meals, a fairly competent lieutenant and a senile old colonel whom the entire unit has no faith in and has to be babysitted by the lieutenant to keep him out actually leading the unit. I can see it be reworked with Pvt. Konscriptovich...
@@allamasadi7970 Agreed. Private Konskriptovich is becoming one of my heroes.
I want to take a moment to appreciate the amount of research you do. it's genuinely amazing how you keep producing informative content (that's easy to understand ) and keep it entertaining.
He must be in Canberra I’m guessing😊
Bro, you videos are the best part of youtube for sure! The amount of analysis put into them is just mind-blowing!
How you manage to keep up creating videos this long with that quality in the pace you do is completely beyond me. Amazing.
Easy to CIA write it for him lol
Huh... Its a weird feeling realizing that it's almost been a year that this war has been going on. Lately, I've been watching the war like a movie instead of what it is, a humanitarian crisis. I know that people have died and more are suffering but considering that I'm in a country that isn't too affected by the war, it just feels weird.
You're not alone. I was outraged when Russia locked a bunch POW's from Mariupol into a building and threw in a firebomb; now it's a grim reality of what they'll do whenever given the chance. When I later heard an intercepted call that there were no more 'birds' alive to rape, I was like "yep, sounds right."
Yeah, I know what you mean, been hitting the popcorn hard lately!
Consider yourself very lucky.I live in New Zealand and I can tell ya I'm bloody glad I do.The would has gone nuts
@@yyxy.oncesaid
I think you should stay landing troops in Odessa.
Go on, get in there 😉
@@yyxy.oncesaid I wouldn't have wanted to have been in New Zealand during Ardern's Covid tyranny!
Thank you for taking the time to emphasize that the purpose of fascist rhetoric isn't necessarily to construct a narrative or twist the facts but to erase the very concept of truth mattering at all. People really need to get over trying to engage with fact-checking that shit on a daily basis and learn that the only recourse is to silence it completely because it is intentionally in bad faith.
Well said
It's fucking sad... Why can't we all just live life and work together? Imagine the trillions on war and all the man power that could be used for good instead... We'd be on Mars instead of fighting each other.
Throwing mud is a dirty tactic, avoiding getting dirty is best.
Bravo
@@alexv1190 Power is the reason I think. People who have power are addicts of it I think. People want things but don't want to share.
Love my Perun powerpoint on Sunday, although this time it's already a bit into Monday when I've finally time to watch it.💕
Thanks for all the time and effort to put this together! Excellent!
You are an analyst that is the model for other professionals - so clear, relevant, multi factor and open. Best use of my time, every week.
Aussies don’t like bullshit.
@@aldunlop4622 But you sure as hell deal with a lot of it. 😂
Underestimating Russia is the worst thing we can do. I bet the Russians will not underestimate the Ukrainians a second time. It would be nice if they did, but don't expect that.
What do you mean? Russia media has already stated Ukraine has been defeated, they are fighting NATO soldiers now.
What is like living in Ukraine?
@@Edax_Royeaux that’s their dumbass media. Their military knows better now
Russia's doing a pretty good job at repeating it's mistakes at Vuhledar right now :)
@@Edax_Royeaux it's exactly that. More commitment to the fight, since it's apparently against nato now
Just watched a q and A on the danish public broadcast channel, and one of the analysts from the danish war college, was asked about good open sources sources on the war, and he replied youtube has this young Australian guy called ‘Perun’. And surely he also mentioned his college anders puck. But Perun, that is a pretty good praises.
This is the best in-depth analysis of the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine I have seen to date. Right to the gist of the nearly unsurmountable task of countering Russia's long-range strike capability, something NATO still resist to provide Ukraine with. So far, Ukraine has become a 21st century version France during most of WWI: Resisting the invaders but unable to drive them back without a significant push of its allies.
I appreciate this video so much. As funny as it is to laugh at Russian fuck-ups, I think some people have started being waaaay too confident that Russia will just fall over. And if we want to help Ukraine, we have to recognize that they aren’t being attacked by a pushover army.
Russia is still a major power (even if it’s not as powerful as many once thought).
Love the videos Perun!
@Garrus Vakarian this is what annoys me when pro russians gloat about how Ukraine is "begging" the west for weapons, and it means they are on the verge of defeat. The equipment difference between the two is insane, and the idea that Ukraine can successfully retake its territory with what it had is laughable, no matter how well motivated Ukraine is. They also like yo ignore Russia getting equipment from Iran, Syria and NK, which if you ask me is a much bigger L then going to NATO.
@Garrus Vakarian I think you overestimate the degree to which China is prepared to stand by Russia, and there is ALOT more to economies then just making things. If Russia has no money to buy from China, then China will not see Russia as a customer, and will go elsewhere
@@joshuacampbell1625 Yeah, that would be like the US going to the likes of Bulgaria and the Baltic states for equipment. Outside of very specific circumstances....like promising equipment upgrades in exchange for giving soviet era gear to Ukraine because they know how to operate it....that would just be embarrassing for a primary global arms supplier.
@@tremedar the thing is it's one of those things thats only embarrassing in context. Russia has boasted for years that its the strongest army in the world after the US, and yet here they are buying ammo and other equipment from pariah states. It shows just how little international support they actually have, and kind of puts in doubt the "endless men and materiel" mantra that the trolls like to preach.
Sure. Russia is still a force to be reckoned with but the whole war has been a PR disaster for them. The Russians went into Ukraine expecting a quick victory over Ukraine similar to the invasion of Iraq, only to find themselves in a war that resembles something like WW1 or WW2 with no good way forward. A best case scenario for Russia if it wins over Ukraine is that it gains more land and people at the expense of greater political and economic isolation. Russia has basically become another Iran and wouldn’t be in an economic situation to rebuild the Donbas and dole out pensions to the few remaining inhabitants who weren’t killed or fled. It’s also a weak argument to suggest Ukraine is losing as it relies on NATO military aid, considering that the UK and the USSR relied heavily on US military aid too during WW2.
Gotta love how the sources take up so much of the description that he reaches the character limit.
Attention to detail and a solid sense of humor, tx Perun.
I liked the comeback of old actors like Pvt conscriptovitch, Sgt bicepsky and Capt Bullshitsky.
The realism you bring to the discussions of the war in Ukraine, the very firm grounding in reality, is quite refreshing. Especially in this era of gaslighting and fantastic conspiracies.
I mean. Most of that come from side of Russia. West is clearly playing long game and no one actually deny that Ukraine has large losses (Russia still larger). It was always underdog story. Still in long run Russia did so many mistakes (mostly because lying) that Ukraine gaining better position to win in long run. But it would not be easy win. Especially as Putin is delusional.
@@TheRezro The Russians thought too much of themselves going into it. As things turned out, they faced a military that could match them in capability in many respects unlike during the occupation of Crimea, for instance. Now they are taking the game a little bit more seriously, although it is much too late for them to avoid the loss of face they already suffered even if they end up winning something from this in the end. The pressure on Ukraine should anyway be assumed to increase still from now.
@TheRezro Flip all those things around and you’ll be correct.
@@Mortablunt How so? Flip "most of that come from side of Russia" and you are saying that its coming from Ukraine. What does that mean? The gaslighting and conspiracies? That's clearly been coming form Russia and is part of the video Perun put out. Russia is playing the long game? They've been playing a long game for over a decade if you include their illegal invasion and occupation of Georgian territory.
What exactly are you trying to say?
You sound like someone that denies the holocaust.
Russian here.
Thanks again, Perun, brilliant as always.
With regard to the point that you made about propaganda - bloating the volume of information, that exists within the info field seems to be one of the most effective ways the regime gets things done. The regulars here, even though they've shifted opinions quite a bit since the war started, are still struggling to shovel through a lot of information, that's not necessarily there to challenge anything, but, rather, just to create a distraction. The overabundance of "Useful idiots" doesn't help as well. Keep up the good work, I hope that, one day, we'll see this madness be over with.
You can check an interview with a guy named Oscar Kuchera, that was made recently, it's a remarkable display of what propaganda does to people here. It's very different to what it used to be in totalitarian regimes.
I've heard Germans say the WW2 propaganda wasn't convincing, but it wasn't mean to, but rather it impressed people. In fact, listening to Enclave Radio in Fallout 3 can be an interesting experience for an American, to hear a charismatic totalitarian President spout lies with patriotic American music playing after every speech. Is the Enclave going to bring back universal education for children in the wasteland? Doubtful, but it's still nice idea to hear about.
liberal western propaganda worker Yuri Dud did everything he can to distract people either
Fuck off rusky
A remarkably well put together, well thought out and well presented report. Thank you, Perun, for this excellent and informative piece of work. No doubt it took a long time to put together and create. It's obvious that a lot of thought and hard work went into it. Let's hope it has a positive benefit for Ukraine.
This channel is spectacular. The articulation and humor of the dialogue is excellent.
I look forward to these essays, Perun. They help me understand the ongoing conflict and the various factors. You even point out there *are* good and bad things on each side, with a good professional air.
@@garretttobin7451 😂🤣😂🤣
Cope moar, Ivan.
@@DominickWalenczak he's spammed this same comment in multiple threads. Feels just a Lil bit agitprop Tovarisch.
@@garretttobin7451 you are partially right, we all are biased, but you seem WAY more biased to me than he is!
Putin and his military lackies are monitoring Western military training in order to gather information to improve their own disastrous performance on the battle field against Ukraine. This indicates that Russia's leadership is not entirely incapable of learning effective tactics and applying them to their forces in their war against Ukraine. TH-cam 'experts' like 'combat veteran', perun, retired generals and others are acting as professors in Russia's War College, posting astute critiques WITH suggestions for improvement -all accessible by Russian tacticians and strategists by simply watching their presentations on TH-cam! There should be some sanctions to keep these 'experts' from 'betrayingus' by broadcasting solutions to help Russian forces kill more Ukrainian soldiers and citizens. In the Army after learning the UCMJ, we were warned that 'LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS!" TAKE THE HINT, PROFESSORS!
"Russia is an anti-imperialist empire that is simultaneously far stronger and weaker than the west, and Kiev is Russian but Russia should do the same thing the Mongols did to it."
-pure Russian logic 10/10.
Not Russian. That is Fascism 101
That’s not what Russians think that’s what Western Nazi lovers tell you Russians think.
ukraine is russian land but is held by the US empire, there isnt much here to be confused by
@@anarchyorslavery1616 Yes. Ukraine is Rus land (Viking), but Muscovite are the Golden Horde land, lead by Putler Khan (title of Tsar was stolen from Bulgar's BTW). US doesn't hold control over Europe, unlike fascist Wagner what control Muscovite horde. There isn't much to be confused here. There is just lot of cope from people who would be send to pointless death, by megalomaniac dictator, with hurt ego.
Hardly the first time that has occurred. A good example is Spain in the 15th and 16th centuries which had been occupied and subjugated to various degrees by Muslim caliphs for nearly 800 years. After finally throwing off completely the Muslim yoke in 1492 in the battle for Granada, the new "Christian" nation of Spain proceeded to pursue the same Islamic tactic of "convert or be conquered and subjugated" to the indigenous peoples of the Americas. The Muscovy Rus had not been oppressed and subjugated by the Islamized (as of 1327) Mongols for nearly as long as the Spanish, but they caught the same disease.
Thanks for the analysis mate! Cheers and keep it coming please❤
As a new analyst in a totally different field, your videos are a great inspiration and shows what's capable.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles" - Sun Tzu, Much thanks Perun
Actually it is " know thy self, know thy enemy; a thousand battles, a thousand victoriei."
@@SicciEN yes, but which translation, but its the message not form that matters
know thy self that west could back stab and throw u under the bus like what happened to south vietnam, ✌️
He really thought it was that simple to achieve such an unrealistic status did he?
@@senatorjosephmccarthy2720 it often is. If you know more about your enemy's abilities and habits than they know they're own, you're at a distinct advantage in most conflicts.
Even if your enemy is more powerful or better equipped than you, if you're the only one who knows that you can pick your battles.
After watching Drach's video on the 2nd Pacific Squadron, I notice many similarities between 1900's Imperial Russia and 2020's modern Russia. They were subject to 'Push Logistics' in a very painful way when it came to their ammunition and coal. Also...do you see any torpedo boats?
One of the keys to understanding modern Russia is that it is a Tsarist society - it has a court, not a government.
" Also...do you see any torpedo boats?"
You sense an urge to throw binoculars?
@@johanmetreus1268 I feel like berating errant captains by loudspeaker in front of their whole crew! And then throwing the binoculars in the direction of "The Lecherous S*ut"
@@nickbrasche1189
"...The lecherous S*ut!"
Hey, I gave that sort of thing up. What did you want?
Russia never changes. German 1914 strategy was to defeat France before Russia worked out what logistics was.
The only thing that sucks about Perun's videos is that watching them makes the TH-cam algorithm suggest a number of wretched channels operating in this genre.
The dedication to these topics is amazing. When I watch videos like these I’m even more convinced that small independent channels like this are the future for news and information. Even more impressive than the attention to detail in each episode is the fact that it’s informative and entertaining.
In terms of international law I think Belarus actually *can* be hit by the Ukrainians if they so wish. Belarus has allowed an invasion of Ukraine from its territory and Russian air assets participate in the strategic bombing campaign. So for example the air bases from which attacks are conducted are legitimate military targets even if they are in Belarus, as is the rest of the infrastructure in question. I think the reason why Ukraine hasn't struck at it so far is a political calculation. If that calculus ever changes, Belarus will stop being a safe haven for Russian troops.
That's true. As of now, it's just a strategic decision of Ukrainian high command not to attack Belarus. They believe it's better this way, but it also can change at any moment.
@@idioluh5838 UA command knows Belarusians troops are a non-factor even if every single one got sent and can't be used without the government falling. Any invasion has to be Russians only. I wouldn't discount a possible round 2 while RF has learnt some lessons, internal fog of war, ideaology and strong irrationality of objectives remain. If they think they can win, like round 1 they will try.
Attacking Belarus could change public opinion enough to justify a Belarus mobilization which would result in Russia throwing more cannon fodder against the Ukrainian lines.
@@badluck5647 I seriously doubt the feasibility of that plan. Public opinion in Belarus wouldn't be inflamed into jingoism because a Russian strategic bomber blows up while parked on one of their airfields.
Of course you might say in a dictatorship that is irrelevant as it might give Lukashenka a motive. But Lukashenka doesn't need a motive to participate in the invasion - it's the opposite, he has a motive to stay out. After the electoral civil unrest, he is paranoid about his hold on power and is keeping his armed forces close. For obvious reasons he's not keen to rely on the Russians for the internal security of his regime, whose potential liquidation at Putin's behest Lukashenka is clearly trying to resist as long as he can.
Moreover, Belarus currently escapes some of Russia's sanctions. This is a decent perk to sell to Belarusian public opinion at an otherwise difficult time.
No, I think the reason Ukraine hasn't struck back at Belarus yet is that they have so few long range striking capabilities that they are forced to prioritise. It's also possible they're worried this might have a negative impact on public opinion, which might not immediately understand that being accessory to a genocidal invasion is a conduct that exposes you to high explosive health hazards.
@@gianmarcomarzo7327 Ukraine shoots missiles into Belarus against and it leaves the door open to a Russian false flag against a school or hospital. This could trigger public outrage against Ukraine in Belarus.
The way you summarized Russian contradictions was simply beautiful.
Very good presentation. It is good to keep everything in perspective!
I appreciate all the work you put into these videos
A point that resonated with me - working in retail, the whole push/pull system and its downsides can really be striking seeing them in person.
We have a (single) little four foot tall drinks chiller, that can fit maybe 100-150 cans total. Sitting in the stockroom, something approaching 10k cans. They could stop sending them and we'd be good for the best part of the year... while carrier bags run out at the end of every month. The amount of parts an army has to keep track of I genuinely can't see how a push system could ever work.
As always a great and informative video Perun!
You apply the push system to a limited selection of items and the other stuff can be handled through a pull system
An important reality check on Russia's inherent capabilities and advantages. Ukraine needs more and faster help from US and NATO. Instead of being depressed or discouraged, we need to do more. 31 Abrams isn't going to matter if Russia can attack Ukraine from the safety of their or Belarus territory. US and NATO needs to give the long range capability to defend themselves.
A single Abrams- or Leopard-equipped Ukrainian armored brigade matters a lot, as it gives the UAF the ability to successfully counter attack any Russian breakthrough.
Note as well that now the *political* firebreak of sending Western MBTs has been broken by Scholz's hardball, the entire Abrams park of thousands of reserve tanks is in play.
@@ianwhitchurch864 Also hence why the Rammstein meeting next month about aircraft is going to be critical as well.
@@michaelgreenwood3413 We're seeing the same dance played as well - the F-16 is the sensible option because there's lots of them, but it'll be France or Sweden offering to break the logjam, and then a unified Western response.
Every western leader should listen to this. A well researched podcast on Russia's current capabilities and threat. Well done, mate.
Long time listener, first time caller.
Thank you so much for all your work on these videos Perun, they are always interesting and informative and I love how deeply you dive into the topics while still remaining highly skeptical of everything.
I really miss talk radio when it was smart and engaging
I miss Rush.😢
Thank you for not underestimating the enemy. A big problem on most TH-cam streamers.
Yeah. Perhaps someone can share this with Jake Broe and the Enforcer, both of whom seem to have massively underestimated (and dehumanized) Russian soldiers and capabilities throughout the conflict. It's becoming a theme with other pro-Ukrainian streamers and they seem aggressively opposed to acknowledging that Russia isn't a clown state, and can learn from previous mistakes.
There was the book "On the Psychology of Military Incompetence". One of its major themes was that underestimating the enemy happened frequently, to the detriment of that force. Around Singapore, it was one such mistake to underestimate the Japanese.
People in democratic countries easily fall into this bias: When victory and deafeat in politics is directly linked with how public opinion is formed people will eventually start thinking that it is their acceptable opining and flag waving for one or another belligerent in a war that makes the difference, as if that matters more for the outcome than the actions on the battlefied by the warring parties.
As usual your analysis is superb sir... thank you!
Great video as always. You and Ryan Mcbeth are my goto for what is happening in Ukraine
Happy days it’s Sunday. Which means one hour of power point slides with an emphasis on military/economic analysis. Thanks PERUN you sir, are awesome.
Hugely important view of reality as patch-quilt as it is. We need dispassionate analysis of both sides of this conflict. Your depth of analysis is highly appreciated!
Thanks for this. Your expository skills are superb.
For an amateur commentator your content is fantastic, I only come here to get the latest of whats going on. Keep up the good work 👏
Hey Perun, if you see this; I suggest linking a locked Google docs sheet open to the public to provide sources if you are having issues with character limits in the description.
Well that was depressing. But necessary. Thank you for this and also for hammering home your conclusion: that Ukraine needs maneuver forces to cut the Russian supply lines, long range fires, air defense and SEAD capabilities.
It doesnt have a history of using these devices in such a capacity, youre realistically talking about disguising americans as ukrainians, and if any are captured its going to be a shitstorm of the first rate
@@jamesgornall5731 the Ukrainians have proven that they are very quick to adopt western equipment and doctrine. I'm not saying it all has to work out immediately, but we need to get the process started so it can work down the line. It's also important as a diplomatic signal: we commit long-term. All the capabilities I named are required, but maybe they can be realized in a more efficient way. I don't see Ukraine operating the latest F-18 Growlers in April. But maybe a combination of drones and longer range precision fires can be used to take out the SAM sites. I don't expect Typhoons with Meteor missiles to take out the Russian fighters and bombers. But somehow Ukrainian air assets need to be protected from those long-range AtA missiles. Maybe a jamming pod is the answer, maybe a towed decoy is, or maybe a drone doing both. I do see F-16 multirole fighters shooting down cruise missiles and helicopters and performing SEAD and pre-planned ground attack missions, though probably not real CAS, in a year or maybe a year and a half.
i dont think ive ever been intrested in this sort of thing..UNTIL i started watching these Peun Video.. now im hooked
Well done Perun. Thank you for another informative video!
Hey Mr. Perun, just want to show my appreciation for the extra 10min past the hour this week. Really helps to quell the existential dread by engaging other areas of my brain a little longer
Those extra slides mean the world to us
Exellent presentation. Fighting a war is a mighty complicated endeavor, and the more I know about it, the clearer I understand how little I actually understand.
A pleasure to hear as it is always perun.
Your best prez for a while.
Congrats and many thanks.
This helps us managing our expectations and keeping pounding for Ukraine support.
Some people might think they’re too big to fail. Personally I believe that the bigger they are the harder they fall.
I hate the 'Too Big To Fail' mentality. It's killed the US in so many ways. At least Russia won't be getting a US stimulus package(Well it would if Trump was in charge).
Agreed. Even a best case scenario for Russia in this war will still be bad for them in the long run. As Whatifalthist said, this is Russia’s meltdown.
Well that is true the united States is falling real fast with Biden as president.
So....massive inertial collapse or a slow heat death?
They will fall but it takes time, and either a split will occur or something else will pop out
Thanks for keeping us informed and grounded. A force that can survive that much incompetence has a lot of depth. Incompetence tends to decrease over time when exposed to combat experience, or it is removed by a fast moving piece of metal from the front or the back. Someone pointed out (it may have been you) that Ukraine had been fighting a nasty little civil war for a while. All Russian conscripts and most Russian professional units won't have had as much combat experience, but the balance is changing. Let's not forget, Russia came back from a far more disastrous start to the Great Patriotic War. This is a war to teach all would be tinpot imperialists that having a nuclear ICBM and a larger army is not an 'I win' in this global village. It is a war for a return to humane conditions for Ukranians. I want my taxes to go towards helping Ukraine in any way possible to deliver the knockout that appears, tragically, to be the only thing that will bring an end to this waste, misery and death.
Appreciate the level of effort involved in th length and detail of the content, (not forgetting the beard) really appreciated .
Perun, great thanks to you from Ukraine. I'd love Europeans to have your channel in all their languages
Don't worry, even in France where disliking English language is an old tradition, some of us like to listen to him.
Even if a (small but loud) part of our population don't want to help, we will continue to do what is necessary to support Ukraine.
Good luck to you, where are you in Ukraine ? Frontlines are near or have you the chance to live far from the front ? Are you in the military or a civilian ?
@@francoiscamy5066 merci beaucoup. je suis civilian, j'habite a Kyiv pour le moment, j'espere que tu vas bien
Very balanced, well researched, high quality content. Best information regarding that topic so far!
Thank you for putting it up together!
Great analytics
An understated point in all of this is that militaries post-cold war don't really have the stockpiles of armament and more importantly the industrial capacity to sustain hot conflicts like this for long periods of time. While the Ukrainians and Russians have both started to gear their respective industries towards a full war time footing, the west have not which can cause shortages in certain NATO parts/armaments. Remember, when NATO conducted their bombing campaign in Libya, most NATO countries ran out of missiles 1 month into the conflict
lmao, what? Ukraine doesn't have a war industry. That's why it's entirely reliant on the US/NATO for 30 and 40 year old military equipment.
@@cameronpatterson130 Ukraine has industry but it’s under pressure due to destruction by Russia.
@@realnapster1522 Ukraine has 0 industry and it’s not going to rebuild one because that is exactly what we in the US have planned for it.
@@cameronpatterson130 Ukraine does have a war industry. They even produce their own tanks and rifles. It just has a low production capacity, and I'm sure after the war is over it is going to be massively expanded.
@@binbows2258 lmfao with what money and what infrastructure? Ukraines industry isn’t coming back. Lmao what tanks is Ukraine producing? They can’t even repair the tanks they do have.
I didn’t do my dishes for two days straight just so I could have Perun’s squishy new 1hr PPT on military industry and defense acquisition while doing it. Thanks Perun
....huh, I should do that.
Dishwasher
@@stc3145 I had a dishwasher. Moved recently. Boy do I want one
Just have him on the background.
Perun-Fi
Helps listening to geopolitical situations while doing dishes or cleaning the house. 😂
Time to throw out the pizza boxes.
Thank you for another excellent if sobering breakdown of the current state of affairs. I really hope that military advisors close to decision makers in the West share your analysis and we retain the political will to supply Ukraine with whatever is necessary.
Until most of there fighting age males die.
*with whatever is profitable.
FTFY.
More like Europe needs to do that. Us Americans have pumped many billions into this war while many euro countries have resorted to giving them shitty cold war gear. Pretty typical from European leech countries though. They never pitch in their fair share and just expect the US to provide everything.
See NATO spending. Such garbage governments running those countries. Need Putin to really threaten them some more for them to finally get off their ass.
@@aidanmagill6769 If that was true , USA would send every old junk piece they could find before sending both Bradley's & Abraham's
Invaluable contribution to the discourse and I can't wait for next week's installation!
Another informative video. Thanks Perun.
I think this analysis is valuable and we, here amongst the din of diesel generators, welcome uncovering the realities that face Ukraine. What's truly remarkable is that even with all these odds, we still reckon it's just a matter of time before Ukraine prevails. The length of that time rests overwhelming on the willingness of our allies to choose victory rather than just choosing not to lose.
This is THE key 🔑 and central point.
At some point there has to be real increase in defense production to supply Ukraine and refill the stores. The sooner, the better. That is what it takes, but it's a big step politically.
@@blechtic yea the West is essentially going to have to match and eventually overwhelm Russian wartime production with its own industrial capacity
@@blechtic It's a big step politically because for some reason Western will is weaker than it should be for Ukraine to get this war over with as quickly as possible.
Perun did a video 9 months ago on whether Ukraine could win a war of attrition. The conclusion was “yes” with enough Western support which would be as much a matter of “political will” as military capability, i.e. the West has greater military capacity than Russia. Next week’s video should address this in some fashion.
We won’t really know the complete answer for “real reason” until years from now but I suspect that while Western leaders want Ukraine to win they also want the war to be a “regional” conflict. This would seem to be the only valid reason for the failure to authorize ATACMS which can be launched from HIMARs with little or no additional training or logistical support.
It is possible that maintaining a “regional” war is the reason that China has not furnished weapons to Russia but once again we won’t know this for many years.
But I agree with your premise-it is frustrating that Western military support has not been greater/faster.
One tip about character limits, can you list all the sources you can in the normal area, and then leave a pinned comment with the remaining sources as the “first comment?” That way they’ll all be available, and you could easily direct interested viewers on where to find the remaining sources. Or maybe a cheap, GoDaddy website with just sources for all the videos? Make it easier to for each individual video as you’d just have to post a link.
Also, in case no one has already pointed it out, but the slide around the 10:40 mark has “allies” misspelt as “alies.”
@@garretttobin7451 spamming your Ruskie copium in various different threads doesn't make it any more true.
Cope harder, Ivan.
Or just put link(s) to text file, (online) spreadsheet with sources in it. Who really cares, won't be bothered, will download file and lookup source that way.
Why even spell check lol
Worst thing is to underestimate your enemy.
Understimated the enemy and overstimating you is how Russia ended up here.
Another excellent, and sobering, presentation. A reminder that a little good news doesn't turn it into a party.
We would need someone like Perun in my office. Analytical and never boring.
Sadly people thinking this way are usually driven out of most jobs by incompetent higher ups. The people who think very similarly to russian leadership of course, requiring yes men and seeing any real criticism as a personal attack.
he uncritically repeats propaganda, in an office he'd be a yes man.
It would make life 10x more bearable if coworkers had any knowledge of history and politics, instead of speaking about their kids constantly.
@@randomdude2832 He said Perun, not Putin.
I recon the Australian defence force pays him big bucks as an analyst.
This video was necessary to bring us all back down to earth and provide another perspective that we might otherwise not have considered. An attritional war has a negative for both sides. Ukraine's support from other countries slows and possibly comes to a halt, and Russian sentiment brings down Putin. On the other hand another perspective is understanding the Russian state of mind. If their loses continue to mount then the thought of in for a penny in for a pound or the need for revenge might reinforce the Russian public to see this through. Finally, how long can the Ukrainian public keep getting battered before their own mental strength comes to an end.
Britain stood firm during WWII. They had a leader (Churchill) not dissimilar to the oratory of Zelensky but if America had not entered the war then the outcome might have been different. Not because America came and saved them but because it gave them hope and resources to keep on fighting. Not to mention Russia's entry!
'bring us all back down to earth'? As there are many who overestimated the Russians, there are also many who never underestimated the Russians. Not underestimating an enemy is the soundest attitude in a conflict.
That is a fair point
"Finally, how long can the Ukrainian public keep getting battered before their own mental strength comes to an end."
Countries are more likely to defend themselves longer than they will supporting an invasion into foreign lands. War Support always favors the defenders. Russians meanwhile, still aren't even allowed to call it a war.