Red Sea Crisis: Houthi Shipping Attacks, Trade and Escalation
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.ค. 2024
- The global economic system is built on trade, and to trade, you need ships and safe, efficient routes. Often, that mean travelling through maritime choke points, where geography squeezes trade through a concentrated point.
In the Red Sea, one of those chokepoints has come under pressure as a result of attacks by the Houthi movement based in Yemen, driving hundreds of vessels to divert to much longer routes around Africa.
Now, US and Houthi forces have exchanged fire, with several Houthi boats reportedly being destroyed attempting to board a container ship.
And beyond the risk of this particular campaign, the sight of relatively cheap attacks reshaping the contours of global trade may serve as a warning to decision makers elsewhere. After all, if technology and techniques can be applied in the Red Sea, why not at other maritime chokepoints around the world?
On that cheery note, welcome to 2024.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats, Corrections & Comments:
There are two flubs in the Audio that need to be mentioned on this one:
Firstly - marine traffic .com, not marine tracker (flubbed because I use it as a tracker I think)
Secondly - prosperity guardian not, as I say *twice*, prosperity garden
Thirdly - there are a few times where i refer to a 'trip' intending to mean a 'round trip' but this is not uniform. I apologise for the ambiguity
all other normal caveats and limitations apply:
In particular - I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Relevant Reading (will be expanded when I'm at my other PC):
US CENTCOM
/ centcom
All ship traffic imagery generated using marinetraffic.com
UN Review of Maritime Transport 2023
unctad.org/publication/review...
The CMF
combinedmaritimeforces.com/
Prosperity Guardian
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...
www.reuters.com/world/us-alli...
edition.cnn.com/2023/12/07/po...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1...
Houthi boats sunk by US
www.bbc.com/news/world-middle...
www.navytimes.com/news/your-m...
Reports on disruption and costs:
www.reuters.com/world/middle-...
www.cnbc.com/2023/12/21/conta...
www.joc.com/article/fresh-sur...
Houthis:
www.reuters.com/world/middle-...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1...
www.ajot.com/news/spiraling-c...
ACAPS (Yemen control map)
www.acaps.org/en/about-us/who...
Image of VLS reloading
maritime-executive.com/articl...
SM6 upgrades
www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Red Sea Crisis
00:01:14 - What Am I Talking About
00:02:05 - Setting The Stage
00:11:49 - Motivation And Strikes
00:14:04 - Engagements And Targets
00:20:40 - Diversions And The Economics Of Disruptions
00:28:35 - Forces And Responses
00:40:36 - Options For Escalation
00:48:33 - The Chokepoint Problem
00:58:57 - Why This Matters
01:06:32 - Conclusion
01:06:56 - Channel Update
![ตีสิบเดย์ [FULL] | ครอบครัวสะท้านทุ่ง "นางบี & อ้ายสติ๊ก"](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/A1rhYcxxNtA/mqdefault.jpg)
Happy new year everyone - apologies in the delay getting this one up but I appreciated the short break, as did the team.
I haven't used this episode for reflections on 2023, as it was recorded before the New Year, but will do so in the coming episode(s).
I hope you find the small audio flub in this episode amusing (surely Prosperity Garden is a decent alternative operation name, right? my sound guy outright refused to remove it as he found it funny) and I look forward to seeing you again later *this* week.
Prosperity Garden, the operation to ensure the middle east is green again
Hi Perun, I'm gonna need a note from The Dean on this one,lol.
G'day mate, love your work.
I think you missed sea in the thumb nail.
I admire your work ethic (and anyone on your team). From the poll I thought you will skip this week. Oh, and 16 hours is not a short break, it is barely enough time to sleep and rest.
Happy new year to you too, and thank you for uploading during the holidays.
As a wise man once said:
"Ships need water to do Ship Things"
- Perun 2024
Boaty McBoatface: 'Here's a man who speaks my language!'
The wise man immediately followed up with "If there isn't enough water [...] the ships can't ship."
And Dr Dre said
Nothing you idiots
Dr Dres dead he's locked in my basement
Not much competition at this stage
We so sory, shippyship no shippyshippy
Such a flex to humbly apologize for being one day late once or twice a year while providing such consistently excellent content every week
Like a Japanese train coy making a public apology for a 12sec departure error. Dependable reliability and responsibility.
@@stilllooking7996 And somewhat worryingly
Tom Scott be like
You leave brittany alone.@@YMandarin
You were sadly very correct about what would happen when non state actors started using cheaper drones after figuring out the implications.
To be fair, people have been talking about this for a decade now, since ISIS started dropping small munitions from drones. In fact analysts have been talking about the impact of the use of drones by all kinds of actors since the war in Iraq.
@@JoanneLeon True and quite sensible. It was more of a reference to Perun’s own observation in his earlier videos on the subject.
Seems youtube doesn't like the mentioning of glassing as a solution.
@@jonatand2045so based bro, so based. Bold and brash.
@@Dap1ssmonk
Seriously think about it. The prosperity trade brings to many is more important than a few. Besides they get saved from living in Yemen. Of course it is not geopoliticaly feasible, but one can dream.
Spare a thought for the poor mariners. Crew scheduling is a nightmare at the best of times. This situation will have people stuck in what amounts to purgatory for months...
How about sparing a thought for the 2.3 million Gazans, who are getting bombed in their own homes since months, and the only people standing up for them are equally poor and destitute Yemenis? If anyone gave a crap about them, instead of covering for Israel's war crimes, those ships would all be safe as houses.
As someone working in logistics I'll add this: the pressure on equipment (container boxes). Boxes that are full of goods needs to return empty to areas of manufacturing (ie. Asia) to continue the flow of goods. Longer shipping times means less empty boxes returning & that also puts pressure on shipping rates. Forget about premiums shipping prices that you need to pay, whether or not you can get your stuff on board a ship becomes a challenge in itself.
Don't forget, longer transit time would also mean shipping carriers pull more ships from other shorter haul routes to compensate, meaning routes that you don't think would be affected also gets a rate hike
Ah, good point and one that isn't considered by internet analysts.
How quickly can you make the containers? Lots of supply of ships are arriving soon, so we can have ships to put the containers on. If China’s economy is coming off the boil, could they shift to making more containers?
@DanielsPolitics1 But who will buy them? A 40ft container cost roughly 2.5K USD. Then there is the Q as to who pays for it. Will that be the shipper or the consignee? But the most important thing to consider is whether or not you dispose of it once the container reaches its destination, & that too will have an added cost. If not, who will then pay for the shipping cost for it to come back, because you're sure ain't gonna just dump it there!
In normal time, shippers rent a container from the shipping carrier because they have the ships to relocate them to wherever they are needed. But if you don't have the ships (pr the truck or the train), then you'll have to think about relocation pr disposal yourself
@@Boatswain_Tam I was assuming they would be built in China, fill the gap for one journey, and eventually return as most empty containers do.
As to who is paying, I imagine it would be the shipping lines, with I’m sure a fat premium fee for guaranteed early access to a container for whoever was the first user. One line just put their rate up from $3k to $6k. I Imagine some would pay $9k for guaranteed early access.
@DanielsPolitics1 Most "privately" owned (I.e. not shipping lines) are disposed of at destination as repositioning is simply not worth the cost. We call this Shipper Owned Container (SOC). Its not unheard of, but this category is defo in the small minority. I had once tailored a solution like this for a client who was exporting stuff from Malaysia to Kazakhstan. The model would be an SOC ex Malaysia to China via Singapore, and from China, you put it on a train and rail it into Central Asia. As you can see, it's just easier disposing the SOC there than bringing it all the way back to Malaysia
And I don't see shipping lines buying more containers. The lack of it will put further pressure on freight rates, which benefits them. Not to mention that it'll be them who are left with the CAPEX & disposal cost when this is all over
While your content on the conflict in Ukraine is important (please don't stop), I find all of your other content so outstanding that it gives very accurate picture of ongoing world events. If I appreciate all the work and research you put into this.
Perun has become almost a religious ritual for me over the last two years. I’m forever recommending various videos to people who mention anything he’s ever discussed. It feels a crime that they are available for free.
@@matthewriffel188 they are not actually free though, unless you use an ad blocker. You either pay with your time watching ads or pay the TH-cam premium subscription. I just point this out because your comment gives the impression that Perun doesn’t receive compensation for his work. He does. And the compensation is high enough that he can afford to hire a “team” to produce these videos.
We all win.
The level of snark in this video is much bigger than usual. I love it.
Even American healthcare got a mention. Agree, it's fabulous
22:16 his remark about 'insurance' was a surprise. is it so bad he had to explain this in the past?
@@andrewharrison8436 Oooh yeah, now the gloves are off.
@@embreis2257It's a bit of a dig about how because housing is so expensive in Australia that it's becoming very rare for the younger generations to own property.
Insurance is something bought by people who own things.
Ouch. I feel that so hard.
Own...things???
You mean like when I pay a subscription fee to own apps on my ipad?
Except liability and health insurance.
My favourite comment this week……
And renter's insurance. Ironically my landlord requires that I carry it. @@Kenionatus
Things which you then buy ... The insurance makes it more expensive for you, dear boy.
Ah yes chem Pluto, the smallest tanker ship. Some would say too small to be considered a tanker
Noiceee
Underrated comment
I want to build a fresh joke off the back of this but I am falling short.
Seriously top notch comment there and my jealousy is piqued as I am incapable of producing something comparable to add on
It's doing better than it's sister ship Chem Eris which keeps randomly changing course, destination and cargo 😂
The US has the backing of the mighty Seychelles, the Houthis now stand no chance with the Seychelles People's Defence Forces intervening.
Well hello, fellow r/NCDer.
Can we consider this a containment breach?
@@creed2466it was breached soo long ago
The Houthis & their backer Iran are coming close to treading on the toes of a couple of countries whose response may be a tad less restrained than that of the US.
Both China & India are distinctly miffed at the problems being caused & may well respond robustly.
@@GARDENER42considering their stance regarding Russia I can't even pretend that their discomfort is a sad thing.
41:02 "The stars and stripes don't have magical power"
BLASPHEMY
I think maybe you mean "HERESY". But I guess "blasphemy" works too.
@@odinsrensen7460 I like both!
Edit: I read an article today that conflicted with the first I read, looks like the ship is flying the Norwegian flag.
I now support it's protection by the Norwegian navy.
My sentiment still applies to the numerous ships that flies flags of convenience.
The owner of the "Norwegian" ship was whining that Norway should come to it's aid.
Nope. you fly a flag of convenience and skip out on tax and reasonable regulations, you get to rely on the nation who's flag you're flying.
I mean people say stuff like this but ultimately trade still drives any nations economy so you can’t just say lolno unless you want your countries grocery stores to start looking much emptier.
Please note I’m not against giant corporations that make billions off running their ships being properly regulated to provide a safer less soul crushing work environment or being made to pay their fair share to the countries they are actually working for, I’m just being a realist
Nope, there are alternative routes. Shelves won't be empty, they will just be stocked with 1% more expensive goods.@@lolroflroflcakes
Though to be fair, prices tend to compound when transportation prices are affected. Especially for expensive/complex products that rely on global trade for their components. I wouldn't be too surprised by seeing a 10-15% increase instead. @zacklewis342
And don't forget the % raise in prices at the end destination.@@trashiano
He will pay his bribe money and norway will come to help for him.
Perun, I want to wish you a heartfelt, warm New Year’s greeting. As I sit here grading my student’s very well researched major paper in economics while fighting a virus, I am very mindful of how much effort you put into each of your weekly presentations. I would like nothing better than to crawl back into bed and put this off for another day, but marks are due in, and it can’t be put off. Yet here you are, rain or shine, sick or not, travelling or at home, 52 weeks a year, producing amazing topical presentations that require as least as much research as my student’s paper (which took a term to produce). And you do this while holding down a day job. Incredible! and so much appreciated. You have become my Sunday tradition: Coffee, a fresh croissant and Perun. All the best for the new year.
Please consider leaving a 2 second pause at the begining of your video so it loads before the sound starts. Thank you again for your excellent videos!
I like that because you are Australian you speak with a pace that respects my time and I don't need to speed you up.
Could we be seeing the birth of a new age of maritime piracy? Or are we just becoming just more aware of what a problem this is, and it just started being an issue for the West recently?
Pirates usually need to take over a ship - interdiction where it's enough to sink or damage a ship is potentially more of an issue in the drone / affordable precision era.
@@PerunAU Thanks for the thoughtful response. Love this channel BTW
@@domtweed7323 I'd imagine this could become a thing as drone technology becomes more common and cheaper- right now Ukraine is successfully retrofitting commercially available drones into grenade-dropping platforms. IDK how useful this would be for pirates, but I'd imagine someone will try deploying such drones against private shipping sooner or later.
@@Canoby commercial drones as weapons is Pandoras box. Wouldn't be surprised if a world ban is implemented on private drones.
Its an intersection between historic geographic vulnerability and newly available, affordable means of attacking shipping by actors with such interest. This region has historically attracted military conflict over sea trade like the Ottoman-Portuguese war of 1538.
Mate, this is a masterpiece. Excellent work both describing the current situation and predicting how this situation and situations like it will evolve.
Honestly it wouldn't be a bad thing if the whole flags of convenience setup was reduced. A lot of the horrific crew conditions on ships are due to a race to the bottom for regulations by convenience flag countries
The frigate Denmark is sending, is a Iver Huitfeldt class.
It has really good sensors.
SM2 and ESSM missiles.
Two 76mm Oto Melara Super Rapid cannons and a 35mm CIWS.
It also has Harpoon Block 2 missiles, that can hit land target.
It' has a Seahawk MH60R onboard and and Special Force detachment (Frogmen Corp).
The Danish frigates are pretty well-suited for dealing with drones. They’ve got pretty extensive gun systems & good EW suites. The main issue with the Burkes is that when it comes to anti-drone missions nearly everything in their arsenal is overkill. They’ve got their 5” main gun, a couple of 25 mm autocannons & Phalanx but that’s about it as far as low-end ordnance is concerned. And 25 mm guns & CIWS system are really only useful for self-defense, which limits their value as escorts.
@@grahamstrouse1165 Yup. The 76mm guns can engage the same target or two different targets. The ammunition is equipped with Leonardo's new 4AP multifunction fuses. And the 35mm Millennium Gun uses AHEAD programmable airburst rounds.
Since Maersk is the second biggest container shipping line in the world and carries a big % of trade, I'm happy to see that they are contributing something
it could be an absalon... and you might ask, why send a ASW frigate when there is a AAW frigate... well, last war we sent a submarine to a desert war. v0v. Also, the guns does not shoot every time and it does not have any of the actual missiles, it have the capacity, but a inventory of 0
@@lek1223 That's BS. It's going to be a Iver Huitfeld. I know a guy that's been called up for the mission. And it's loaded with both SM2 and ESSM missiles. Never heard anything about the guns malfunctioning? Where do you have that information from?
Its always amazing how impeccable your upload timing is.
Well done Perun! You've outdone yourself. I can say without reservation that this is your best video so far this year.
This may be true until next week…
Hi hapag us employee here. Really appreciating the in depth review of this is this stuff does affect everyone
This would’ve been easier if the Houthi’s called up the Evergreen Shipping company again in 2021
Even extremely funny since Evergreen's one of the first companies who publically announced that they would avoid the Red Sea Passing.
@@theoheinrich529evergreen: “not this sh- again”
Just in time! I was feeling Perun withdrawal. Thanks for your work and Happy New Year! 🎉
Me too. I had to turn on the work laptop and look at an empty Powerpoint for a while to supress the shaking.
"For my millenial and gen z listeners, insurance is something bought by people who actually own things"
mint joke Perun 😂 22:14
Yes, I noticed the meta-commentary on our socio-economic equity problem too... Funny and true, but sadly terrifying in its own way!
Honestly one of my favorite videos of your channel. Understanding how technological development may affect global trade and politics is something that we've come to expect from your channel, but honestly you might be the best creator for this kind of content in the whole of TH-cam. Amazed how quickly your prediction of non-state actors utilizing these technologies came true. Keep up the good work!
Thank you, for the thorough yet concise way you present your lectures. I say "lectures," because it is akin to a university classroom scenario, albeit more interesting and entertaining. Kudos for the research and well written presentations. Once class begins, I soon find myself immersed in the subject and unable to be easily distracted. As I learn more about geopolitics, the more I appreciate how people around the world are interconnected. Thanks for making learning fun again!
Great video as always. You raising the new threats (like the Ukrainian 'jet ski' drone boats) made my blood run cold. I had not considered that. It will only be a matter of days or weeks before the Houthis get those from Iran. They aren't that hard to make.
Hey look... a 1 hr Perun video on a 1 hr flight! PERFEC😌
honestly one of the best long form analysis youtubers out there
Thank you for another great PowerPoint presentation. Even though i didn't expect one during the holidays. Please make sure you continue to enjoy making these and take a pause if you need one.
I love you, Perun! You make intensive learning delightful. Never a wasted or boring moment. You are always thought provoking, informative and entertaining! Thank you so much!
If you are going to do an episode on the LCS class, I would love another episode on the USCG new ships. They are in the process of converting their fleet to just three ship types: National Security Cutters, Offshore Patrol Cutters, and Fast Response Cutters. I would love to hear your thoughts on the program and the ships.
Jesus. I just realized this is actually the conflict the LCS were built for...and you only see Burkes on the board. LOL!
I truly did not expect to hear the phrase "somali pirates of olde" for a few more decades, but here we all are.
Happy new year and thank you for the chuckle
Happy new year Perun, his team and all the community.
Even in those times, perun delivers
Perun puts outstanding content about real world issues!!
Happy New Year, Perun, and thanks for all your excellent videos. Best wishes to you and yours for 2024.
Fantastic video with so many great one liners. We got social commentary on wealth inequality, American health insurance, and ships needing water in one video. Superb, Perun.
My thanks and best wishes to you and yours.
I truly wish your analysis weren’t needed but am grateful they are here.
Feliz Navidad to Perun and my fellow Perunistas! Perun, big thanks for this up-to-date report.
Always love your “slide shows” it’s like watching movies like finding Nemo or buzz light year… there’s always a clear plot line but also so much hidden humour, todays line of lines was “it’s expensive like a avocado” loved it
Mate, it's very nice of you to apologise for being late, but I hope you know your audience does not deem it necessary:)
Thanks for all the hard work you put into the content you provide! I hope you will soon or already are able to live of it and enjoy it
Hey - don't worry so much about schedule. I'll be here when you upload, and if it takes a few extra days to make an exploration of a topic that you're happy with, I'm willing to wait for that. Make sure you're making the videos you want to make, and make them sustainably.
Excellent as usual. Thanks for your efforts to inform us.
Happy new year mate and thanks a mil for the immaculate presentations you produce!
Great job as always, keep up the great work!
The section on Djibouti reminded me of my favourite Economist headline: Everyone wants a piece of Djibouti. It’s all about the bases.
One point often missed is that Egypt does not allow any weapons to be carried through the Suez Canal. So ships themselves cannot be armed to defend themselves and instead are reliant upon contactors who board after passing Suez and leave before Suez.
Interesting - I wonder if that will change (for a fee).
@@andrewharrison8436 In a war situation, Egypt could go f itself if it thinks that it controls anything.
Well in the Mediterranean there is/was no need for protection, so even without the that restriction the contractors would probably still get on/ off when entering leaving the Suez canal at the Red Sea . If more permanent defensive system is need employed, you probably going to look on some way to seal the system during passage and not have operating crew. Of course if a cost effective system for civilian ships can be designed and allowed in general by governments is a big 'if'.
I am super hungover, haven't really slept at all, and don't want to move anywhere. This video is great to start the year, instead of watching the ceiling and trying to not die 😆
Perun, one of your very best videos. Super informative. Good job.
Thanks for this! It makes sense out of the huge number of news stories about individual incidents. Happy new year 🎆👍🏼❤️
Happy New Year! Good call giving your production team a little breather (even if it’s just you). Also, given my input on what the subject of this episode should be, I feel as if I tasked this briefing directly. So thank you for answering a question that has been bothering me beyond any reason. “Why are we putting up with this crap and why haven’t we just turned the launch sites into a glass beach?” I had not realized that the Saudi’s had been waging a sustained air campaign against the Houthi’s. As a more concrete thank you, I have now joined your Patreon page and urge others to do so.
The Saudis may be the only people in the world with 4th generation fighters and smartbombs that still can't hit the broad side of a barn.
@@MM22966 They managed to hit a few wedding parties and get quite a few air frames shot down.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_and_accidents_during_the_Saudi_Arabian%E2%80%93led_intervention_in_Yemen
@@MM22966 The Saudis are a US "ally" that is cosying up to Russia. What's up with that? That's the first question that the Saudi ambassador should be asked before selling the Saudis another bit of hardware or software! Or even beginning a conversation! Remember, "trusted ally" Israel was selling US tech to Saddam Hussein and Russia before the Gulf Wars!
Thank Perun for an incredibly up to date presentation and very relevant subject. And far more complicated than I could imagine. May I also take this opportunity to thank you for all you have done to educate us in the past year and to wish you a Very Healthy and Happy New Year. 🌟
Always appreciate a good Perun video. Informative, punchy, entertaining and Australian.
Thank you again - for this one and all the others post. Looking forward to next year’s work as well.
Returned to this....now that the 'find out' stage has begun
Also, it’s a little bit of misinformation that France is only escorting French flagged vessels. That was reported but then corrected soon after as their vessels were seen escorting other merchant ships as well.
Well researched and presented, as always.
Really enjoyed this one. Thanks, Perun.
A great video as always, but i do have one complaint. You (and a lot of other people) have described what the Houthis are doing as 'Piracy', and I disagree with that label. Piracy is a profit-seeking venture, pirates are trying to make money. There have been multiple public statements from the Houthi government that their goal is to put pressure on israel to stop its seige of gaza. That would make their goals geopolitical, not monetary, and what they are doing either blockade or trade interdiction. This is actually quite similar to what the russians have been doing in the Black Sea, and everyone called that a blockade and not piracy.
What the Houthis are doing does fit the definition of piracy. Although recent attacks might have a political reason behind it if you suspect the Iranians are instigating Houthi attacks, generally all ships that are boarded and captured are sailed to a friendly port and kept captive until a ransom is paid. You can say that Houthis attacking and capturing container ships has an unmistakable profit component for a warring faction that has no ordinary, legal means of generating revenue.
i bet you are fun at parties “well actually”
@tonysu8860 they did capture a couple ships, yes, but they have also been firing drones and missiles at ships. I doubt they would turn up their noses at a payday but I still maintain that's not the main goal.
@@tonysu8860 then why have the houthis fired at ships? yes taking the ships are also a good monetary benefit obviously but they arent doing it just for money, they are fucking isreali ports that rely on the canal, isreal would be hemmoraging money if daddy america wasnt saving them with our tax dollars as usual. This can be both something to make money from and achieve the goal of pressuring isreal to stop its genocide within gaza
Reminds me of a story about Alexander the Great who captured a pirate. Basically if you are Alexander (or Russia) you can call your robbery many names. If you are a rebel faction that is not recognized as a legitimate government... well, you are just a pirate.
Great vid, and happy New Year Aussie. It was worth waiting an extra day. Keep up the great work. Love that you're putting some gaming back on the other channel. Was never into War Hammer but still love the content. #StandWithKiwiland #StopEmuAggression
Great vid mate.
Very eye opening for those not well informed.
Keep up the great work!
Thank You!
Thank you for the great video once again. Post'em when you got 'em we'll anxiously await you next in-depth review of the major goings on. Thanks again.
Thanks again for an excellent presentation! Wasn’t even expecting a video this close to the start of the New Year so definite bonus. Seems that naval conflicts have generally been more prone to a disproportionate sensitivity to small threats due to the high rates of risk aversion in sending valuable assets into harm’s way - see Jellicoe vs the German High Seas Fleet for example...
A bucket of cold water moment for Globalisation. Thank you for another great PowerPoint presentation. all the best to you you and your channel for 2024 mate.
Very interesting & information video as always!
It blows my mind how Perun is able to create this amount of high quality content with such frequency, and still has time to add absolute zingers to every video.
13:35 So, if you think about it, with the heliborne attacks on the Red Sea, the Houthis are technically literal sky pirates. Are we in a steampunk fantasy??! 😅😅
Oh no, a Kharadron Overlord player….
Crimson Skies: The High Road to Revenge
Between Diesel and Cyberpunk
@@carlosandleon Don't you mean BunkerFuel-Punk? 😁😁
@@donkeysaurusrex7881 Dibs on the Hughes Devastator
Happy New Year, Perun! Looking forward to learning even more from you this year, and I hope your channel gets even bigger because you certainly deserve the recognition. Always appreciate the level headedness, levity and dry humour you bring amidst today’s news landscape. Best wishes for 2024 :)
Thank you, Happy New Year, you’ve made this much clearer!
Happy New Year! Thanks for the thorough examination of global issues.
Nimble Archer didnt just destroy two oil platforms, it also sank between half and 2/3 of the Iranian Navy. In just one day.
"My source? I made it the f*ck up!"
That wasn't Nimble Archer, it was Operation Praying Mantis in April of the next year.
@@deamon002 ah, yes, you are right.
I just did a “Global conflicts and geopolitics of 2023,” during new year trivia last night…. I am ashamed I forgot to add the Houthis the list, but I couldn’t find a good number on total attacks on shipping vessels since October.
Thanks for a very informative year Perun!
Happy new year! Thanks for the upload!
This is phenomenal content!
Great timing! One of your videos is a good way to start a new year. Thanks.
Its got to be a testimony to my fandom here that my first thought at the first shoot-down was "Please tell me they shot down this $20,000 drone with a few 5" shells costing a few thousand dollars apiece including the proximity fuse rather than a multi-million dollar Standard missile."
Would be weird not to. Drones are slow and soft skinned
@@martinjrgensen8234 yeah, the only thing I can think is that maybe the captains were concerned about the drones being for recon, spotting for genuinely dangerous weapons like a guided cruise missile. In other words, using the $2 million missile to shoot down the $20,000 drone to avoid being located well enough for the launch of a dozen million dollar cruise missiles that might overwhelm the ship.
The 20,000 dollar drone can easily do millions to billions of dollars in damage if it sinks a cargo ship SM-2 costs 2.1 million and ESSM costs roughly 1.7 million
@@jameson1239is ESSM good enough at the ranges from the ship involved, in the absence of close convoys?
Those Ukrainian naval drones are insane. Long range guided torpedoes.
Superb as always Perun, thank you muchly.
I was waiting for this video! good one Perun
Pretty sure that currently multiple nation states are explaining to the Houthi (and possibly the Iranians, too) that if they are to successful in the shot exchange economics they will have no alternative to coming for them who do the shooting. Giving up on international trade isn't really an option, while the Houthi not having nuclear arms leaves the option of actually going after them open.
Would be ironic if, after all that hubbub following the assassinating of that one Iranian general that never went anywhere, this tomfoolery is what leads to multiple nations deciding independent of the US that it's time to revoke Iran's life privileges.
Honestly it's about time.
My Muslims co workers will not be happy.
@@jtho8937 Hasn't gone anywhere yet. Never think that an antagonist like Iran has forgotten a slight and let it slide. Ask the Palestinians. The Munich Olympics Massacre was 1972, a senior Black September figure was killed in Beirut in 1979 and a senior PLO figure linked to Munich was killed in 1992, twenty years after the attack. Nobody is saying the Revolutionary Guards compare to Mossad and Sayaret Maktal, but don't think they've forgotten.
@@jtho8937 Yeah, no. Just looking at a map of Iran will quickly convince any western general that invading is simply a horribly bad idea, specially after the experience in Afghanistan. Yemen is a different matter, they could simply help reignite the civil war there as retaliation.
@@pascalausensi9592all the mountains likewise make it a nightmare to supply, many plans in Iran are effectively isolated much of the time to begin with. The internal difficulty of Iran gets worse as no one actually likes the ones in charge and they, like Belarus, have to keep a lot of the force internal to threaten stability (hence why they can’t fight out despite the size of their military compared to their neighbors as well as the aforementioned logistical headaches of transit through mountains and hills). Direct assault is a tough pill to consider swallowing however the Ayatollah’s position isn’t the strongest
How has your experience as a Rogue Trader influenced your analysis of this crisis?
One of your best, most timely, and most important presentations, Perun!
You are gifted with seeing the big picture, and drawing conclusions leaders need to learn now, or else.
You do all this with a unique sense of humor.
Thanks for a New Year of sharing your gifts with the world!
Happy New Year!! And thank you so much for the high quality content!
Excellent analysis as usual, but I have one nit to pick. Additional costs to ship through the Red Sea only go up to the point where alternatives become financially competitive. So, for example, if diverting around Africa costs an additional $100,000 per day and takes 10-13 additional days, then once the extra costs associated with the Red Sea route approach $1 - 1.3m no one will bother with the Red Sea anymore. It's obviously more complicated than that, but the principle still holds.
Happy new year! Excellent work, as always.
Happy Year 24 to you and yours, and Thanks Perun.
Happy New Year Perun! Thanks for the new video.
Happy New Year from Warsaw, Poland !
I have been looking forward to you covering this.
Happy New Year! Perun thanks for your educational and skilful way to share the war-economic presentations!
Another great episode. I spent 8 years in the US Navy and hearing all the crazy going on right now all I can do is hope our government gives them the ability to defend the shipping and defend themselves till the rest of the world realizes this will impact them just as much and join the cause.
US naval vessels have been defending themselves the whole time. And they defend any ships nearby
@@adayinforever rarely have I ever seen a moral side in war.
@a: Protecting worldwide trade is morally wrong? Of course, since much of the trade in the Red Sea benefits China (trade with EU, oil), I’m fine if we fuggetit. More trade for Canada and Mexico! :/
How do you recommend we ensure the success of the starvation of millions of babies if Yemen isn't stopped? By the way are you only into torturing minors to death or do you enjoy other forms of child abuse?
@@advancetotabletop5328 houthis have been open about they only attack isreali bound ships and have killed no one, so far only the US has killed people in the red sea, your defending corporate interests over human lives
This is truly a super interesting video again!
Thanks for this video, very valuable topic to put a spotlight on.
What a fantastic urine presentation and analysis! Thank you for all of your journalism and analysis during 2023. I hope that your keen insight and analysis continues into 2024. Happy new year!
My fingers are too big to type. I dictated. Obviously I did not mean urine.
I meant year end.
You can just edit your comment and change the word.
@@timothymachen687lol. and I thought auto carrot was bad.
I propose that you let the error stand because it’s funny. 😅
@@odinsrensen7460 How does one edit one’s comment without using their fingers?
Couple of points:
1. The sword/shield dynamic, unless the shield grows stronger, is going to result in new international norms in how problems and problem states are dealt with. With something as critical as the global economy at stake, if matters continued to escalate (and especially if the Red Sea was as vital as the Straits of Hormuz), the solution to the Houthi problem will be, sooner or later: "What Houthis?" In brief, as the ability to Fuck Around increases, and conventional deterrence/countermeasures at proving insufficient or uneconomical, global actors will look outside the box and examine the framework within which "Fuck Around" operates and decide that artificial restrictions (e.g., morals, international treaties) on Find Out are no longer applicable. Obama-era concerns of if Predator drone strike on Jihadi Wedding inflicted too many casualties on non-involved persons are going to seem outmoded. Because when the stakes change from a potential maybe hypothetical terrorist attack on some American asset in the Middle East to "The EU economy is grinding to a halt and the EU is a stone's throw away from a revolution", you can bet that Houthis will end up as a footnote in history right up there with the Indigenous people of Newfoundland.
2. You've really set yourself up well for a video on the efficiency vs resilience debate. Building monstrously expensive yet super efficient cargo ships is all well and good when nutjobs aren't able to sink them with a few months work using nothing but a recycled jet engine, a cell phone, a vaguely missile-shaped cylinder, and several tonnes of high explosives. The capitalist drive for efficiency resulted in efficiency within the paradigm of the 1990s-2010s world order. That paradigm is clearly shifting on a multitude of fronts.
"End up as a footnote in history right up there with the Indigenous people of Newfoundland."
Ouch. Fellow Canadian?
Some form of active “pacification” seems inevitable at this point, although I don’t think this means U.S. boots on the ground. There are other countries with capable military forces with strong interests in Red Sea security (or even the U.N. if it gets to that point). Some of these countries wish to assert themselves as regional powers independent from U.S. “hegemony”, and the U.S. would be all too glad to let them, so long as they are not hostile to the U.S.
The actual goals of Operation Prosperity Guardian might be quite different than the current defensive operation we are seeing.
Short term, I think the participants are more concerned with broad coordination-not tripping over their own dicks or the dicks of allied non-participants. It’s about military cooperation among interested parties-practical diplomacy of a sort. The Prosperity Guardian participants want to know what the French are doing and vice versa, for example. The last thing we need is a mishap leading to an incident, because a friendly warship shows up in a place where we weren’t expecting it. (Use your imagination, and you can imagine all sorts of screw ups if the various forces aren’t communicating closely.)
Longer term? Longer term there really needs to be a foundation and multinational framework for security in the area, both locally and more broadly. Operation PG isn’t going to create such a framework on its own, but it might be part of an effort to coordinate those parties with overlapping interests, basic interests such as trade.
well i can only say: even tough the Un hasnt done it for quite some time: Would russia really Veto any kind of UN force on the ground? or would perhaps another coalition for that says: well we help the internationally recognised govuerment!
Either way the Huthis are going a fine line... because i am sure everyone wouldn't mind a ground invasion if that results in lower prices in the shops
@@MarcosElMalo2 didnt most of the groups in garden leave and the remaining US vessels too scared of HOUTHI missiles to go forward with it?
@@airplanemaniacgaming7877 Wasn't Newfoundland depopulated twice? Once when (I assume) the Frenchies got rid of the local Indians, and then again when the Brits evicted all the Frenchies and sent them to (I think) New Orleans?
Perun, thanks for a great video.
Whelp, so much for Kickstarter! :P
Thanks for the videos!
This really gives some support to those who say the end of globalization is near. The increasing ease with which even nonstate actors can cripple global shipping suggests that some day, global shipping will become more or less a thing of the past, and nations will have to produce their own goods. Not a happy thought to anyone who understands the economic pain this will put us all under (especially the poorest, despite what anti-globalists believe).
Hot diggity. I've got 90 minutes to listen to this!!! Thank you so much for the release