Attrition, Casualties & the Winter War in Ukraine - losses, force quality and force generation
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ค. 2024
- Territory may be the most commonly used barometer for assessing the success or failure of the winter campaign, but just as important is the impact of the fighting on the forces.
Attrition is intrinsically linked to war, as men and equipment are ground down by the effort and by enemy action. In this episode we look at loss estimates, discuss the challenges of attrition, and update on the efforts of both sides to make up losses and generate new offensive potential.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats/Corrections:
At one point I make a reference to 'combat deaths' when i mean military deaths (hard to have non-combat-combat casualties) I also refer to pilots flying hundreds of hours per year, I meant per month in that example.
I also incorrectly conflate Desert Storm and Shield - There are a number of other small errors of that type
Rebuttal of statements/estimates advanced by others are general in nature and should be taken as merely my personal opinion on the matter
I would also take my usual warning about data quality and limitations and multiply it as far as it will go on this one - attrition is hard to externally assess and, as noted, the data is tightly controlled and highly politically charged
Sources/Reading:
Credits to Oryx and Wartranslated as always
Indian Standing Committee on Defence - March 2023
loksabhadocs.nic.in/lsscommit...
UA repair figures
www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/...
RUSI - the air war in Ukraine
static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Ai...
GAO/NSIAD-91-304 (Costs of Desert Storm/Shield)
www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-91-3...
Testimony in response to Desert Storm/Shield cost projections
apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1176...
RU 400,000 contractors
www.businessinsider.com/russi...
tass.com/defense/1048138
3:1 Rule
apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA302...
Loss estimates
www.csis.org/analysis/ukraini...
zona.media/casualties
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-2...
www.washingtonpost.com/world/...
www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/...
novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022...
UA Offensive Guard
www.kyivpost.com/post/12095
UA troops train on Leo2
www.euronews.com/2023/02/14/u....
GAO/NSIAD-92-20 Operation Desert Storm
www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-92-2...
NSIAD-92-94 Abrams performance in Desert storm
www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-92-9...
Wagners's odd recruitment choices
www.rt.com/russia/573045-wagn...
Russia HIMARs claims in media:
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7...
TASS on t-54/55
tass.com/pressreview/1593845
Ukrainians repairing Russian vehicles
www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-mec...
EU training efforts:
mil.in.ua/en/news/the-eu-want...
WW1 casualties per Library of Congress
www.loc.gov/collections/world...
CIT on T-54/55
notes.citeam.org/t-54?s=1
Selected loss graphs from leedrake5
github.com/leedrake5/Russia-U...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Attrition & the winter war in Ukraine
00:01:05 -- WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT?
00:02:09 -- CASUALTIES & ATTRITION
00:04:22 -- the real drivers of losses
00:06:59 -- historical deviation or return to mean?
00:08:10 -- ESTIMATING CASUALTIES
00:11:40 -- mixed methods
00:15:01 -- illustrating the point: Russian estimates
00:19:54 -- THE COST OF THE WINTER FIGHTING
00:23:17 -- UKRAINIAN ACTIONS & RESPONSES
00:27:23 -- RUSSIAN ACTIONS & RESPONSE
00:33:13 -- OBSERVATIONS & ENDURANCE
00:37:57 -- EQUIPMENT LOSSES
00:38:05 -- combat loss claims
00:42:14 -- visually confirmed loss data
00:43:34 -- what it shows?
00:45:29 -- DEPRECIATION & CONSUMPTION
00:45:39 -- attrition is more than just combat losses
00:48:50 -- scale drives consumption
00:54:04 -- the capacity & readiness problem
00:57:33 -- Indian evidence?
00:58:40 -- DEALING WITH THE EQUIPMENT CHALLENGE
00:58:47 -- the Russian approach & the T-54 thing
01:03:19 -- Ukraine's foreign lifelines and trophy systems
01:07:47 -- estimating endurance
01:08:39 -- CONCLUSIONS
01:09:58 -- CHANNEL UPDATE
Thanks for the patience on this one - had to work a bit to get it over the line but hope it was worth the wait.
Plan is to be back on track for a Sunday release this coming week as normal - taking into account the results of the recent topic poll.
I also want to be very clear about a point made in the video but which is important to re-emphasise lest I be taken out of context somewhere. There is a difference between estimates that are inflated and those that are outright fanciful. Ukrainian claims on lost Russian equipment for example are most likely inflated - Russian claims on destroyed Ukrainian equipment are outright fanciful in my opinion. There is a difference in degree there which matters in the context of trying to understand the way this war may progress.
Many thanks as always, and will see you all next week.
Thanks just in time for my flight to Canberra
Nice!!
Hey, it's still Sunday here in the states.
I mailed you last week to stay in contact in regards to POL-ENG co-op
No worries, sure it was worth it 👍
I am German so I hereby assume authority on matters relating to punctuality. In the event of sickness it is permissible to be up to 3 days late without a doctors notice, this is therefore excused without further discussion.
A German excusing something without proper paperwork? Truly, we live in "interesting" times
@@ivanthemadvandal8435 The Germans have started to realise that sometimes efficiency is served by *not* having paperwork.
They will soon become unstoppable.
@@ivanthemadvandal8435 You can be asked by management to see a doctor anyway.
German trains tho ........
The leopard tanks were 9 months late
"Apparently every Russian artillery shell is enchanted with a freaking Avada Kedavra spell."
Love it.
Then I see the problem. Shouldn't it be abracadabra?
@@Rjsjrjsjrjsj Its a Harry Potter reference.
@@Rjsjrjsjrjsj Avada Kedavra is indeed a nod to Abracadabra by name, but Avada Kedavra is the "instant guaranteed death" curse/spell from the Harry Potter franchise.
Does that make Putin Lord Voldemort?
@@philipdepalma4672 the resemblance is definitely there😂
Once upon a time, well-funded newsrooms with dozens of support personnel researched, wrote, and delivered documentaries on current events that were informative and valuable.
Today, one guy on TH-cam is putting all of them collectively to shame. Keep doing what you're doing, Perun. We appreciate it more than we can say.
The decline in educational funding and proliferation of social media is the cause.
Those newsroom personnel today are required to keep track of the Kardashian family, leaving precious little resource for handling such marginal news items as European war. Kim's arse alone has its own department.
@@red_lantern That and News Agencies selling out to Political Parties.
Remember all the people he is using as a source, reference
@@red_lantern decline in educational funding? What definitions and sources do you have?
I'm sure you can find statistics to support any theory, but your comment sounds like your sources are limited to your gut feelings.
Perun, as a former intelligence specialist who served in the Gulf War, I understand your need for professional detachment is doing these videos. I just want to say thank you for your time and effort! You are doing a magnificent job and please, keep up the amazing work.
@@chooseyouhandle I think he was referring to himself. IIRC Perun is in university for acquisitions.
@@chooseyouhandle
Well Perun fails to talk about aussieland. All intel related military contracts right down to the lowest come with a contract stipulation that you can't talk about your own assets etc even after you quit.
Because basically if someone reads so much of an internet comment of 'internal knowledge' and traces it to you (which is fairly easy given the limited size of intel gathering and processing), you could realistically be thrown in prison.
@N Velsen yeah he flat out refused to discuss the AUKUS deal, I was hoping he'd cover it.
@@nvelsen1975 Correct.
And even if you are allowed to talk in general: It is difficult to always keep in mind: What is secret and what is public knowledge?
I saw a video where an operator of Patriot talked about Patriot - and he repeatedly paused to think: "Which figure (e.g. range) is public knowledge and which is restricted information". It is sooo easy to make a mistake and talk about stuff that is restricted, because in your head every figure you know is correct. But remembering which is the public figure and which is the real (and secret) figure is very hard.
That's why I think it is often usefull to not cover such a topic at all.
Perun has enough topics he can cover and to be on the safe side is a very good decision IMO.
@@nvelsen1975 you misspelled Emutopia😊
I am consistently impressed with how you don't overstep into conjecture without caveating yourself first, you only talk authoritatively about things you have an authoritative grasp of, and you're up front and confessional about the limits of the data. You are responsible with your speech. I consider you a role model.
It is, HE is, admirable in that, isn't it/he!? I agree.
It's our public servant voice. It's a really helpful way of speaking and communicating around the NZ/Aus Public sector environment. Something you start to learn when you wind up becoming an SME who gets forced to sign off on major technical requirements quickly and you need to convince boards/comittees/dickhead middle manager types that you absolutely know your shit so you can get out them out of your way. I see it a lot in government IT services.
Really nicely said
Lmao the man doesn't even think the Ukraine Foreign Legion are mercs, so I'd slow down the circlejerk a bit my dude. He has a solid take, but spare me.
This is a style of speaking cultivated by those advising or presenting others in decision making positions.
You will find it in business, military, and intelligence circles. Basically anywhere opinion sneaking into the realm of fact has costly consequences.
In the past I would have said educational and scientific fields would give similar breakdowns of known/probable/conjecture, but those arenas have turned into complete ideological shitshows of insanity.
It blows me away how Perun has been knocking out these well researched hour long plus PowerPoints that are interestingly presented on such a regular pace it's genuinely impressive.
While also doing his daytime job.
We're getting what is basically a professional, hour+ documentary every week. It's a ridiculously high level of quality & quantity.
I would like to add that I find it genuinely impressive how you managed to show up everywhere
I have rabid ADHD and can’t read for more than a minute or two to save my life but I will listen to Perun go on about a subject I don’t particularly care about happily.
@@uwesca6263 I think it is his day job.
I truly thank you for that closing reminder. It is entirely too easy to forget that these statistics are about real people with real lives. How many of these casualties were once just like us and have had their world turned upside down.
Well said yelsew816. My thoughts as well.
Agreed
I might reluctantly accept Russians might be human species just like us; but those poor sods catched somewhere in deep Siberia to serve as mobiks - culturally and economically, they are essentially aliens. I would like for West to understand; trying to project how we function in our daily lifes onto _them_ is a large, fat mistake.
The formation of the UN and the security council was an attempt to spare mankind from the scourge of war. Yet dictators keep invading.
Even a Russian soldier has a mother.
Good video, as always. Just something historical to note - although some historians still consider hoplite warfare to be ritualized, the majority have abandoned this notion over the last 20 or so years and are actively criticizing the theory.
Good to see you here!
You guys should really go back to monthly reports. They were a much better summary of a more logical timescale and a decent watch. Splitting it down might help with the financials/Google recommendations, but the end user loses out. It’s been a noticeable downturn in what what’s a quality monthly video, that might have become the go-to historical summary of the war. Now, not so much. Maybe subscriptions make up for it, but sone of us can afford that and like I say from a historical perspective it’s clunky.
TBH, the image of 'Achiles vs Giant Guy' style duel between two opposing Hellenic armies, as depicted on the movie "Troy" is definitely more badass than a more realistic skirmish-before-the shield wall clash kind of situation, so it's my headcannon
@@arthurlasido258 That's exactly what Homer thought as well. In the Iliad, you have early phalanx-style infantry grinding it out in the "wide shots" - but as soon as one of the heroes appears on the "screen", the focus switches to individual fight scenes and combat between the protagonists, with the mass of the soldiers becoming blurry in the background. The movie "Troy", for all its faults, actually got this right some of the time - nameless soldiers made of CGI or extras battling it out, but then everything stops and waits for the heroes to banter and duel, mimicking Homer's narration technique.
@@geedon1 I think fog of war prevents these highlights to be as comprehensive (historically) as they'd wish. I expect major battles/campaigns or even entire war covered by K&G in similar manner to battle of Kiyv or pacific war (
The engines the Abrams lost in Iraq when they first got there was due to FOD erosion of the compressor blades. this led to the pulse jet system being implemented and used successfully ever since. Abrams was never designed to fight in the dust bowl, it was envisioned that it would be in a European theatre hence the oversight.
Thanks for informing us about that. Also, I find that to be both brilliant but also hilarious.
Today I learned that my favorite tanks cleans itself by farting 😂
And that is why mature systems are the backbone of any army. Brand new tech has oversights.
@@kungszigfrids1482 those T54s will do just fine then 😂
@@Snugggg There is also a thing as too old, tho a humble spear can be expcted to preform at its usual efficiency without fail in any situation its efficiency and usefulness on the modern battlefield is just too low.
What is FOD abbreviation for? For those of us who only learned technical lingo in their first language? I did a quick search and results were far from satisfactory.
Your schedule is self-imposed. I'm grateful for what you do whenever you're able to do it. Thank you.
Absolutely!
So very true!
This is actually the only channel where I have ever thought "Huh, there's supposed to be a video up today, what's going on?" and re-checked TH-cam throughout the day hoping to see it. That probably says as much about me as it does about the channel, but still.
I did the same; but youtube thankfully decided to show me his community post that informed of the delay
More about the channel. This is a shared experience.
Six hours after the scheduled Perun fix, desperate Perunistas resort to old issues of The Economist, Drachinifel videos, MHV - even, shamefully, Binkov...
Watching this video felt like an hour-long essay on how expensive war is. It is one of those basic facts in the back of your mind that you forget in your day-to-day life, but it makes sense and bears repeating.
Particularly, as he reminded us at the end, in terms of the human cost, the tragic scale of suffering
Yeah, war might be one of the worst investments possible.
And in war the costs don't stop when the shooting does. Wounded soldiers and civilians need care, sometimes for the rest of their lives. Families may have lost their only breadwinner, or their only offspring, communities will have lost leaders, teachers, and the holders of wisdom and lore. And generational trauma is a real thing, any sustained trauma on a societal scale will change Human biology as a result. War is always a bad thing for Humans.
If you read history stuff from the middle ages and onwards when wars were a European constant, there's an almost unending under-current of who has the most gold/wealth in order to prosecute wars. It was pretty much the primary calculus being done in the heads of every ruler of the continent, non stop.
That calculus is not limited to Europe.
Insane to think we've gone from "could Russia rival the US again" to "could Russia collapse like the Soviet Union again" in just a year.
Paraphrasing the classics:
"This is the way empires end
Not with a bang but a whimper"
@090giver090 most of the time
@@090giver090 this is closer to a bang than a whimper imo 1 year is really fast in the scale of history
I swear to God I'm starting to think your some kind of bot created by Chat GPT to align yourself with whatever the comment section is. You fit perfectly to whatever audience watches. Like you've been perfectly studying how to fit in.
There is more insanity. Give one more year, Russia joins Nato.
As someone, who services his vehicles himself, I have to add to ~ 57:00 : Working under high demand (tight timeline, high output demand) on various complex machinery will inevitably produce some faults. Even with motivated, trained personal. Small issues like bolts not torqued to spec, screw lock not applied, electrical connectors forgotten, or not pushed properly into place, etc., pp can have surprising results. Been there, done that.
And without proper quality control (and I assume, this is cut short, too), these problems will not arise until the vehicle is operated to its design limits. Also known as: sent into battle.
I´d love to see a statistics on how many of these post invasion serviced vehicles get lost because of sloppiness in the overhauling factory.
I also wonder about the western equipement being sent having to go through similar issue except the liberty is even less : if you have 1000 tank in storage and it's asked that you poop out 400 vs so we want to send those 7 cannon make sure it's operational yesterday.
I have to say I know nothing about tanks but I know something about Russian engineering and I can testify that the very idea to use a screw torqued to spec is believed to be close to outrageous in our culture. You try and put it into an assembly drawing- everyone down the chain will be complaining bitterly "Oh shit! Now we need to find the bloody torque screwdriver. Couldn't you have engineered the shit to not require it? Come on..."
And indeed most of the times engineers avoid setting torques like plague. The modus operandi is always to engineer it so it could not be assembled wrong even if the worker is blind drunk.
@@fabienherry6690 I believe, the risk of western equipment suffering from "sloppiness faults" is lower than the Russian equipment for a few reasons:
1) Long lead time in preparing the equipment. This indicated that they want to do it right which involves sticking to procedures.
2) Engineering nowadays places a lot of emphasis on "poka yoke" design. Basically the philosophy that parts can physically not be assembled incorrectly. I assume, the T62s and T54/T55s didnt place as much emphasis on that as Leo1, Leo2 and other more recent gear.
3) I know from my working experience, that one of the seemingly easiest positions to save money is to cut the quality department. They are always annoying, standing in the way of deliveries and seemingly only cost money in the mind of accountants. I wonder how that works in a kleptocratic society, ... ;)
@@Ergilion Fully agree. Torque specs are the plague in assembly lines and poka yoke is king.
But how does that fare with tanks from the 50s and 60s? I´d bet a lot, they are more sensitive to sloppiness than T90s for example, or even Leo2s or Abrams, ....
@@christofschwarz6602 this system works like this - there's usually a department that checks everything that is externally supplied to verify it's up to spec upon entering the factory. What they do varies from visual and document checks to sometimes measuring and testing stuff. Then there's OTK representative on every stage of production. OTK means the department of technical control. They have a representative at every individual workshop or assembly shop on the factory who's job is to make sure the stuff it produces is done per specifications. They have access to everything and usually sit in the same room where stuff is being produced. Some of these people can make life really hard for anyone. They answer to nobody by the factory director and its no use arguing unless you want to take it all the way up. And finally if it's some military shit there's also acceptance procedure by a military representative. Or a civilian client may send his representative to make sure all is OK. Military representatives are a pain in the butt for everyone from a worker to the factory CEO.
Anyone that watched your channel knows you are very much a human being. I have never doubted your humanity. Kepp doing what you are doing. This US Army veteran salutes you.
It's 2:20 AM in Warsaw, Poland, but I am closely listening. As I did since the very second PPT you dropped. Superb work as always!
2 am gang rise up
@@Idk-hp3oo GMT+1 representing
Hell yeah 02:39 here in germany
Luckily, it's only 8:40 pm here in Canada. Almost thought I'd have to wait till tomorrow before this shows up.
2.45 AM here. Sleepless regards from the Netherlands.
PERUN'S RICHEST RUSSIANS:
Pvt Conscriptovich: Got rich by selling the wiring from some T-80s
Sgt Bicepskii: Dual wields two PKMs in TH-cam shorts, made money selling the rest of the PKMs
Colonel Cleptonov: Owns a 5 million dollar mansion on a salary of 30,000 dollars a year
And Ivan Smokesalot. Likely a recently downsized fire Marshall who wants to prove that the Russian Federal Fire Brigade really needs him.
Pvt Conscriptovich and Sgt Bicepskii needs their own comic book.
@@chooseyouhandle The whole Russian army is total Blackadder material, now with the rate of the WW1 season. That's why any sane person avoids it at all costs.
Perun's Richest Russian is clearly General Oligarkov, who got rich convincing the Russian MoD that what Russia's army really needed to build was next-generation Mansions and Megayachts (for him of course). They're generations ahead in luxury compared to inferior Western counterparts!
@@SVSky he needs to sell pvt Conscriptovic and sgt bicepski merch
Perun, you are literally the only TH-camr I’ll ever spend well over an hour watching continuously, enthralled and informed in equal measure. In years to come I feel sure your contributions will be studied by students of warfare in the highest quarters. I’m in awe of what you do. Thanks 🙏
I'd hate to ask what you are doing with the rest of your TH-cam time. Because it doesn't appear to be dredging up quality content of more than three minutes duration. Perun is first rate, but TH-cam is vast beyond description. You'd be surprised what jewels shake out if you tried hard enough.
@@afterthesmash LOL. Yeah , you’re probably right. I spend far too much time looking at, frankly, rubbish on TH-cam…..mostly related to dogs and history. 👍
Yay! The newest episode of General Oligarkov, Colonel Kleptovsy, and Private Conscriptovich is out!!
Why omit Sgt. Biscepski?
He is one of the Kremlin Goblins children too!
. .and Commandar Farkov wasn't there.
@@scadian9 I build their lore in my head. I do think that sgt. Bicepski is looking out fot private Conscriptovich so they both can return home safety and they get in a lot of shaennenigans trying to scam Colonel Kleptovsky
man you know something is good when you miss it even if it just gets delayed for a few hours
Your videos are informative and pay tribute to the horrors. The best day for this channel will be the end of the war in favor of the defenders and I will continue to follow your content beyond these dark days.
Well said👍👍🙂
On another note Perun. Don’t stress yourself too much over the release schedule. If you’re ever feeling under the weather and need to take a week off in order to keep the content top quality nobody would bay an eye
Perun (aka Thor, and what a great nom de guerre, BTW): You are an multi-national treasure. It must make you laugh how an anonymous guy who is basically a high-level bean counter (no offense intended) has become an international celebrity! . . . Thank you for all you do. Most happy to be one of your Patreon supporters!
I wonder what made The Chieftain recommend him.
I'll have you know, sir, that when I saw this delayed video finally drop, I allowed it to interrupt a Drachinifel Drydock episode. I, personally, have no greater TH-cam-centric compliment to give.
That is tremendously high praise, thank you! Drach's work is fantastic
@@PerunAU His is, but also less... emergent. Your work is also superb, take it from a former INGO analyst/lobbyist.
If, when Ukraine concludes, you ever present on my old professional area of interest (Somalia/Yemen in the 2000s), I'll be keen to hear your take.
It's a strange world when at the 38 minute of a power point presentation, the presenter says "at the half way point of the presentation" and I immediately think “YES still another half to go!”
I think: "Oh no, already? But it just started"
I'm not an amateur. This is channel is the gold standard for how to think rationally about this war.
As an aside, I smiled at the strange bragging by Russian commenters. They brag wrong. I saw one that said "Ukraine has suffered 10 times as many casualties". The implication is that Russia has inflicted nearly 2 million casualties and *still* couldn't take Kyiv; was routed from Kharkiv; lost Kherson; lost the Snake; and lost the naval war to a country without a navy. Incompetence is not something to brag about.
I agree with everything but the last point. Ukraine did have a Navy it just didn't survive the initial stage of the war. So in that sense Russia can be viewed as "winning" the Naval war. They're just so incompetent they somehow lose after winning
Many thanks to all civilized countries for their help!!! Hello from Ukraine.
You’re doing so exceptionally well with this channel. Honestly didn’t even notice the delay 🎉❤
I did notice the delay, because every Sunday, I wake up looking forward to it! Top shelf stuff!
Perun's entire channel can be distilled down to very sophisticated misinformation and disinformation. All these purported facts are designed to humiliate the Russia armed forces, and create the impression that Ukraine isn't losing, wake up, Ukraine is losing very badly. Russia is capable of outproducing the entire west in terms of artillery, and is fire at least 3-4 times the amount of artillery on any given day. All of Russia's military losses have been grossly exaggerated in by western propaganda outlets like Perun.
The BBC and Mediaziona have been calculating Russian combat personnel losses since the beginning of the conflict and can only confirm 16,000 dead Russian troops,
Meanwhile even the EU and NATO are admitting to at least 120k Ukrainian dead at this point, and sources like Col. Douglas Mac Gregor and the leaked Israeli Mossad intelligence report how has access to Pentagon and deep state intel sources are claiming this figure is actually at least 200k dead Ukrainian troops at this stage, and is possibly even as high as 250k dead Ukrainian troops.
Wake up [people, seek out alternative sources, they don't have to be pro Russian sources, don't just consume pro Ukrainian propaganda, that is all Perun and people like him are feeding you, and I can tell you having watched many of his videos it is a long way from the actual truth.
How? I was going through Perun withdrawals. I had to watch an old video to tie me over.
Didn't notice the delay...I've been waiting impatiently since this morning ...its now 2am..and im watching it
Thrilled to have my fix for 7 days! Thank you👏👌👍 Reviewing old episodes calmes my nerves, but every new one increases my inner strength.
As Beau says, after you take territory, the hard part begins. That's when the opposition is attacking from within.
Historically, that's the part Russia did well at. They just commit genocide. See: Chechnya.
Only if the occupying force has humanity. If they are willing to genocide everyone it's quite easy to crush insurgencies :/
Beau?
in WW2, Germans took all Ukraine, Belaruss, Georgien ruzzkiland ,, in jjust 4 month , kept 2 years but they lost
I would guess Beau of the fifth Collumn? Check him out! Well worth it!
I have to say, Perun’s comment section is one of the best & friendliest on TH-cam
He is being fair to both sides and being very logical, explaining his points well and he built his audience this way.
This prevents radicalism of viewers and keeps them down to earth.
@@ArmedSpaghet agreed, more content creators should follow his example
The key indicator for me for any. Channel discussing Ukraine is the quantity Of one liner posts such as slava Ukraine,. Heart emojis and Ukrainian flags. The fewer of those types of comments typically indicate. A more adult level of discussion.
Putin fanboys with those absurd claims Perun mentioned. Seem like fools here
How you put out such high quality, thoroughly researched and amazingly interesting presentations on a weekly basis while also holding down your day job is just mind blowing. I don't know how you do it, but I am just so damned glad that you do. And whilst sharing an accent and a like of vegemite doesnt give me the right to be proud of your work, there is some level of shared Aussie pride in knowing that a fellow countryman from the wrong side of the world puts out arguably the best Ukraine war related stuff on youtube. Bravo Perun.
"she just smiled and gave me a--- a vegemite--- sandwich" ! that shit is soooo weird btw .... just eat some peanut butter FFS :P
its kinda like how you guys arent a part of NATO but you still kinda are.. LOL
@@raidermaxx2324 but does your peanut butter have yeast extract for some flavour? They are both just as weird
i dont think there is any "yeast" in my peanut butter. I thought that was the vvegemite stuff that was weird like that
@@raidermaxx2324 exactly my point. How can you expect ditching umami for peanuts?
I'm officially an addict. I've been craving this all day.
I've been saying for 30 years now that we need to start referring to casualty statistics in dead, maimed and wounded..Modern Western combat medicine now saves a lot of guys who would have been killed in Vietnam or before... but a large proportion of them can't return to active service because of their injuries.
While Ukraine is pioneering the way in returning people with lost limbs and the like. Some of these guys are getting replacements and heading back in. You don't do that sort thing without a deep love of your people and country.
It makes sense if you’re a military commander. Dead, maimed, and wounded all mean one less soldier to utilize from your perspective. Even if they get healed later, right now soldiers are what you’re concerned with.
@@ianshaver8954 Until our prosthetic technology gets good enough to send them back as cyborgs.
@@dinhnguyen2110 I take your point, but the pedantic in me can't help but point out people sporting prosthetic limbs of any variety are already cyborgs.
@@boobah5643 Depends on the nature and quality of the prosthetics. A carbon fiber tube does not make one a cyborg. A mechanical/electronic hand, with feedback for temp and pressure is getting closer.
If you can get a replacement eye with thermal/night vision integration.... that's actually getting into cyborg territory. I think you need to surpass the initial human body limitations with the replacement, to truly qualify.
Dude, Perun, I love your stuff, but if you're unwell, please don't feel bad for resting.
Thank you for the video though.
Your appreciation for the real human cost comes through every time!
This is a particularly good installment. As always, you've done your homework and you present a complex subject in a way that a average person like me can understand. Thank you so much for the time and effort that you obviously put into each presentation. In North America, domestic news and documentary sources don't even come close to delivering the kind of information that you do. You make it seem easy, but as a procurement professional myself, I know that what you present is anything but easy to put together. Slava Ukraini! From Chicago, USA.
Nice, caught the new Perun on time.
Edit: We all appreciate the enormous effort and quality of what you do mate, thank you
When Perun is 12 hours late 🥲
Now I know what it feels like to be deprived of oxygen
On your point on consumption, I cannot help but imagine the incoming mental health crisis from all the vets of this war.
As Ukrainians are treated like fallen victors for their homeland, they even have walls for fallen.
They are well supplied and morale is high. They got showers, food and proper equipment gained from NATO.
They are fighting for their home and their families will remember them. With WESTERN support, mental healthcare centers will be set up as well.
Russian side tho..
Rampant alcoholism, threatened to get shot by officers, mental healthcare is looked at as a joke, they are fighting for a dictators wetdream.
They have no supply, no food, shitty guns and old ammo.
Most are prisoners from far away and minorities who dont care for Russia.
They are getting killed more and more. For example 400 people died of frostbite when colder weather hit.
They cannot afford a loss.
If a loss would happen, it would be worse than the war at Afganistan, which collapsed the biggest country on earth, the USSR.
Suicide rates will sky rocket and even in a victory, many will ask “Was this even worth it?”
One other point about attrition. The Viet Nam war was notorious for body counts as if there was a fixed number of the enemy and that count said whether we were winning or not. Not only were they worthless but they were also inflated to make the commanders happy. Your other points on miscounting were also spot on. Pilots often overcounted or misidentified ships that they attacked in WWII. Yamamoto assumed from reports that two American carriers were sunk at the Battle of the Coral Sea when only one was and even then the Yorktown was repaired by historic efforts and fought at Midway making the battle much more equal.
Alright a reasonable release time for your Aussie audience.😊 jokes aside there is no need to beat yourself up or apologise for not getting the video out at the usual time. The fact you can research, create and present a video week after week is more than enough. Keep up the good work good sir!
Literally the first for us ay
Meanwhile I work nights in us central and was double confused
Here come Perun to save my Sunday's!
Another great presentation, thank you. It needs to be pointed out that effective tactics and leadership, quality of intelligence, increasing technical battlefield capability, weapons procession and range, quality of recruit training, rotation of troops, and medical care of the wounded are force multipliers that improve efficiency, effectiveness, and longevity. These factors are relative strengths for Ukraine vs Russia.
Week after week I am impressed at your expertise, your analysis, and how you cover both high level/abstract concepts and how it translates greater in depth understanding. Your frequent mentioning of the very real human cost further implies your care and compassion for humanity, not just technical analysis. As always, appreciate this episode and learned or thought about a number of new things.
Please, please continue to publish these excellent videos, but at the same time please live your life fully as well. Posting an insightful, quality video a few hours late is no big deal in the grand scale.
This will be so worth the wait! I wish you a speedy recovery, Perun! Your videos give me such insight into this senseless conflict.
Recovery?
He didn't mention any illness...?
If by senseless you mean Russia's unprovoked attack x 2 on Ukraine I agree with you. If you don't understand why Ukrainians continue to fight, then I have no help for you
@@drewschumann1 coming in hot there dude. That's likely what he meant, the Moskovians cruel invasion.
@@drewschumann1ybe he meant senseless in that one strategic weapon on Kiev might just have struck the head from the viper, had it been employed last February, saving the whole of Europe from being put at risk
i meant senseless as in Russia pointlessly invading twice now and causing the deaths of thousands of people. I understand why Ukrainians are fighting and want them to push the Russians back over the border and into the sea.
"before you too get the chance to be properly shot at" God I love this kind of humor
YES agree, it gives assosiations to a movie, where the line was: GOD, I LOVE THE SMELL OFF NAPALM IN THE MORNING
Aussie humour is so dry.
US Army reserve side back in the 1980's we were using up WW II 1943 50 caliber ammunition by the 10,000 round pallet load each day during training for a 120 man training Battalion. That summer 27 truckloads of ammo and explosives were shipped to Camp McCoy to be expend due to being out of date for the active force to use, Fun 2-week session at camp.
29:18 I salute the thoroughness with which Perun "researched" Wagner's recruitment and marketing efforts. 😂
I had a feeling I've seen the combination of black, orange and white somewhere before!
Cmon yall, let's not get ahead of ourselves. 24 seconds after release on an hour data feed! Cmon man. Perun is a blessing no doubt, but watch and click. HE DESERVES THAT RESPECT 😅
Some of us peek at the comments while we watch? 🤷🏼♂️🤦🏼♂️🇺🇦🌻🇨🇦
Like and watch babe like and watch is the way.
As a Ukrainian, I wanted to say thank you for your amazing informative videos! It is very important for us to win the information war and you are definitely helping a lot.
Information war. Wow.
@@MondoChow777 Not a lie unfortunately but it is also an implication that its malicious intentionally and that one cant find any truth within because its all scewed wich id argue is possible. Test peoples confidence. Can they earnestly critique their own camp without hesitation? or admit to making mistakes? if they cant it makes their arguments inherently unreliable
@@MondoChow777 It is true.
Even if you are pro-Ukraine I take everything Ukraine says with a grain of salt.
And, I can see how a curated truth could be easier to digest for a lot of people.
However, many people don't want best case, that want to know what is actually happening on the ground.
Perun is one of the people that have the clearest voices on that.
Very true, Russia relies heavily on misinformation targeted at the weak-minded hoping they won't inform themselves. The truth is of great benefit to Ukraine!
@@smasherblues5322 All the lies that Russia puts out and the fact that a few people (very few) felt hope over the Ghost of Kyiv is the only thing you will bring up? Are you a Russian @sshole or just a regular @sshole?
Imagine finding this channel just now and missing a year of professional defense economic hour-long PowerPoints
Time to start binge watching
Amazing work, as usual. Thank-you for the important reminder that from a strategic, 30,000ft view, “casualties” do not look like what they really are. Each casualty is someone, a person, who’s health and sometimes life is consumed by this war. Glory to the heroes, yes, but grief too for all that has been lost by so many. May peace be found on this Earth, I pray.
Ahhhh yes, time for my weekly PowerPoint fix. Was starting to twitch from withdrawal.
Perun is never late, he arrives precisely when he means to.
You make the complicated subject of war so simple and clear. Thank you for your hard work!
Big props for not rushing this out by compromising quality! I can't thank you enough for maintaining what's truly unique and valuable of your work ❤
There is no reason we shouldn't be laughing our asses off at the fact T-54s are being pulled from storage, we absolutely should be pointing and laughing. Imagine if the US had to pull out Pershing tanks to fight in Afghanistan, how much mockery would the entire world be throwing at the US if that happened. Imagine how badly the Brits would be flogged if they resorted to Centurions. Note as well the mounting of 2M-7 PT boat turrets onto MT-LB armored tractors, which looks even more terrible than it sounds (and likely performs).
One thing about this war I find most interesting is that all 4 of the russian objectives are completely failed, irreversibly so. They said they wanted to Demilitarize Ukraine, but it is now a fortress with more military equipment/soldiers than ever before. They wanted de"muh nazi"fication of Ukraine, but the failure to take Kyiv means regime change is completely off the table. They wanted to prevent NATO expansion, but forced massive remilitarization as well as Sweden/Finland officially submitting applications for membership. They wanted to secure the Donbas for the puppet states, but the "annexation" has taken those two puppet states completely off the table. It is rather telling that not one single person/bot shouting support for putin seems to be able to comment on the war aims all being failed, they all instantly go silent never to be heard from again.
Regarding what you said about Russia failing to achieve any of its goals in the war:
If you have not seen them, I highly recommend the videos of Vlad Vexler on TH-cam. He is a Soviet-born political philosopher who is now living in the UK, and has been following Putin's regime since its beginning.
According to him, Putin's real reason for launching the invasion in February 2022 has nothing to do with Ukraine, NATO, or the USA.
The actual reason is because he was slowly losing power in the Kremlin (Vexler states that Putin had become more like a referee and mediator/arbitrator than an actual boss in regard to the decisions and policies being made and implemented by the Kremlin leaders), and launching a 'special military operation' enabled him to legally justify increasing his own power.
If he cannot win in Ukraine, he may decide to just try to drag out the war for as long as possible and to create a stalemate in which Russian forces would be in constant combat with the Ukrainian military, which may allow him to continue to legally justify his increased powers.
Being removed from the Presidency would effectively be a death sentence for Putin, as he has made too many enemies within Russia to hope for a peaceful retirement. So he really has no choice but to keep the war going.
Vexler has warned that should Putin somehow remain in power after the war, he may become more popular in both Russia AND the West years later.
What really puzzles me about Putin is that he apparently has no alternative other than starting or becoming involved in wars (Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea, Kazakhstan in Jan 2022, etc) to keep himself in power.
Xi in China was able to consolidate power in Beijing without needing to invade another country.
So…yes. This war may end in military defeat for Russia, but if Putin is still somehow in power afterward, he is going to laugh and say that he has won.
These "objectives" aren't being achieved and, indeed, cannot be achieved for two reasons:
- they are not real, but rather stated objectives
- kleptocracy begets ruins
Talk about pointing and laughing. On another video in another channel and down in the comment selection. There was a "tard" who seem to be ranting and point US THE PEOPLE out for laughing at Russia when Ukraine is doing the same thing.
In his point of view why are we only laughing at Russia for using T54 and T55? Ukraine is using those too. He resort to calling everybody nazi sympathizers in his comment. I was like.."Dude. You ever heard of these two terms? Beggars can't be choosers. Scraping the bottom of the barrel. Ukraine is the beggar and the one scraping the bottom of the barrel. The reasons why we aren't laughing at Ukraine or OTHER COUNTRIES for using older equipment is because Ukraine or OTHER COUNTRIES was always consider to be poor, weak, isn't anywhere near THE TOP 10 in the world and Ukraine or these other countries doesn't go around bragging about how powerful they are to the WORLD on social media. Russia is this case is consider...Scraping the bottom of the barrel and we laugh at Russia for it. Why? Russia always brag about that it is DECADES AHEAD OF THE WEST. Just as strong as USA or even STRONGER and always pumping out its chest. Threatening everybody. So of course it's funny and we mock Russia when they pull out tin cans 54 and 55". The tard was all like..."That's still no excuse. Double standard".
Perun its 2am here in Czechia but ill still listen to your presentation, and if i miss something oř just fall asleep ill listen to it again.
First! All I have to say is Perun, I really value these episodes. You are the best analysis on the war in Ukraine out there.
Thank you so much for this excellent talk. It’s fine if it is late, your quality is worth any wait. And thank you for the touching comments at the end- reminding us that data is people. Real people who leave behind grieving families.
Hi Chris. You are a simple not educated peroson, Right? You didnt noticed that he is bias and supporting the nazis and corrupted people in Ukraine? What is your education about?
As one of the authors of the Mediazone count, I would add that we SUGGEST (this assumption is based on a grave count and a comparison with how many dead were publicly reported) we see about every second funeral. That is, we still do not know anything about the MIA, as well as about those who are not identified. That is, our current 18k should be multiplied by two, and this will be a conservative estimate = 36k without LDNR casualties. That’s very conservative, of course. But I strongly oppose that we are “pro-Russian side” at this conflict
Yay! I thought Perun had forgotten us this weekend, but no - he came when we needed him the most! Looks like I won't be going to bed for another 1 hour and 10 minutes.
Thanks for working overtime to still get this out to us today! Your analysis remains unparalleled on TH-cam
You are my favorite source on this conflict man. Props to you sir.
Your ending comments present the difference between you and other similar commentators. Thank you.
Too true Bruce.
I want you to know that I refresh your channel every hour on Sundays which is something I never do and have never done for any other channel on this site since I joined it in 2006. Keep up the great work Perun.
I love that your video came out at a reasonable time in my time zone (it's currently 8:41am in Western Australia) so I can watch this whilst I "work from home". Normally they drop at 21:00 on a Sunday night. Hope you had a good weekend Perun!
2100 ain't that bad 😂 meanwhile I'm here watching this at 0315 in Germany cause I can't fucken sleep
7Pm in CA, I think we are the target audience 😆 sorry guys
23:00 to 00:00 for me on the east coast. This is now my lunch time nap time getting used up.
They don’t “air”, so it’s not that you missed a broadcast. Welcome to view on demand.
@@TheHesseJames oh thanks, no one was actually aware of that aspect so thanks for saving us the headache! 👍
War is hell but peace is worth fighting for, we on the outside can only do so much without it affecting our every day life too much. While I understand that for every Ukrainian this issue is the only issue of import for us on the outside it is another issue alongside many other issues to worry about. Staying informed and not falling for propaganda and misinformation helps us make informed decisions about this issue.
Staying informed costs a lot of effort and time but it is our responsibility as the people with the means to help.
These hour long power points are really helpful because of the care that has gone into them, it is a lot more in depth then some other news articles and I feel like I can trust these videos more then some of the articles I usually read.
I am always impressed with the amount and quality of your content. You are able to keep my attention and curiosity regularly for over an hour. Great work! Keep it up.
Nothing quite like high quality geopolitical analysis to cap off my weekend.
12:05 Shoigu's estimate makes sense if he assumes Ukrainian combat medicine sucks as bad as Russia's. In reality, it's not even close.
I've been waiting this whole day and my prayers have been heard. Cheers for publishing another PPP that we all love, have a good day, Perun!
Definitely worth the wait. The amount of work and analysis you put into these is very much apparent. Much gratitude, Perun. Cheers.
Hadn't heard that Russian troops were being transferred to the DNR and LNR, but I can see some sense in it from a Russian PoV. DNR and LNR losses don't count. Good way to hide losses.
According to the stories I've heard they have their military IDs and docs confiscated too. Poof, they become DNR/LNR persona non grata. It's a real shitty trick.
They should count now. After all those are a part of Russia now. At least officially
I used to wake up with Perun on Sunday, tonight I'm watching Perun before sleeping :) The wait is worth it!
Thanks Perun, great work.
Like most of your viewers, this is the only channel I wait for, one of the few I write comments on, appreciate the work and great content. We all hope you keep well and keep up the great content. Thank you.
Perun is very professional and then drops a "sometimes shit just breaks down", and I love it
Thanks for answering the question regarding KIA and wounded for both sides using intervals and mentioning the methods involved in counting
1 am in uk atm, been listening to NAFO even rounder podcast on lazerpigs channel hoping so much you’ll upload by the time it ends which you have! Awesome
From my perspective, this video was only a couple of hours late. Given the amount of work that goes into your videos, I think it's safe to say you don't need to apologize.
Cheers Perun, all the best!
I love your videos, they really shaped my understanding of the situation. Great work, easy to listen too and not overwhelming with too much information at once. Also love your sarcasm that often comes out of nowhere
You provide the best information in the most unbiased take Ive seen. I dont care if you need to take some time for yourself, take care of you. Awesome video and thanks for what you do.
Covering something so talked about and important but often not seen as it should or is. Thanks for your work Perun
I'm always amazed you can make such great videos every single week
All you do is give us all we need to have an adequate understanding of what we cannot know ourselves so far removed from the forces engaged, and the engagement---a top level top flight observation, fairly presented, leaving reality the room it demands to breathe.
Been waiting all day for this. Thank you Perun. My Sunday is complete.
Always enjoy when Perun comes out with a video.
Thanks for bringing up the 3:1 attacking ratio as not a loss ratio but a force equalization ratio. Urban warfare requires closer to a 5:1 ratio to be successful which is often glossed over by many analysts. It explains why RU has been so abysmal at urban assaults, they seem to only bring in a 2:1 advantage from what I’ve seen from Mariupol and Bakmut reporting and it can be successful, but at a very high, grinding cost.
Well, it's a rule-of-thumb, which means there's lots of caveats and exceptions, similar to the rule-of-thumb that for two more-or-less equal forces (per soldier,) the more numerous force is stronger by the square of the numerical discrepancy (ie, double the opponent's forces and you're about four times more powerful.)
Thanks Perun. I'm someone that is constantly looking for impartial information/news of this war. I have found your content extremely engaging. You explain things that others dismiss because it doesn't fit their narrative.
Thanks for all the hard work you put into these presentations
Here since All Bling, No basics. Every week, I dream you'll give us a run-down of my employer, the Canadian military, like you did with the Germans. but hey - no pressure.
I just wanted to mention bout your release schedule. please don't feel like you ''owe us'' a set video at a set length these videos are gifts, not expectations, and we appreciate them. but please, not at the cost of your health, physical, mental or otherwise!
This is a weird trend among youtubers, particularly up-and-coming ones, which worries me. that feels unhealthy and in need of some slight boundaries. Although I wouldn't call you an up-and-comer anymore with this view count, please do not put undue pressure on yourself. I fully understand that you want to stick to a schedule for many reasons, I'm just throwing it out there.
Looking forward to listening to you on this one again. Good health and a good week to you.
I think it is from having a patreon, some people get awfully demanding once they've thrown a few dollars at someone.
@@chooseyouhandle oh my god yes. Our procurement system is a ducking disaster and has been for most of my life. I still remember the Liberals cancelling the Cormorant helicopters bought by the previous Conservative government only to not buy a replacement for over two decades. F-35 is the same incompetence. Cancelling a system just to buy it again later at a higher price with our capability reduced. And all while racking up a historic deficit.
Kudos to you. Amazing work as ever Perun. We are all squinting at the conflict through a dark cracked mud smeared window and having you shed some light is massive.
26:00 the Offensive Guard makes a lot of sense. I would assume that Kraken was an early prototype for this, although under a different ministry. From all we've seen and heard about them, it seems that they're a volunteer unit that's specifically used for urban assault. They had vastly different levels of military experience, but men with high morale and a readiness to take high risk missions. In some sense they resemble the WW1 German assault units, which were also selected for morale (and not having family...) rather than their military record.
You’re videos are fantastictally done. I look forward to these always.
Whew, you had me scared for a second. Don’t worry, everyone deserves to take a break once in a while and catch an episode of Bluey
I hope you're feeling better Perun. Thanks for another thoughtful video.
Perun you just keep them coming, THANK YOU for the effort! Loved your impersination off the Russian tank factory CEO.- That was just magneficient🤣
Thanks for the extra hard work this week man! Your videos are something I look forward to every week!
Hi Figgles. I am doing a research on how educated the people are on this channel. Nobody noticed that he is bias and he supports the nazi regime and the currapted people of Ukraine. What is your education if I may ask and how much do you understand about CIA, dolar, USA and corruption in Ukraine and NGOs in Georgia?
Being volun-told is my new favorite term
Thanks, Perun! I hope you feel better soon, mate. Love from Canada.
Another great video. Your work has really given great insights into parts of modern warfare everyone talks or mentions in books but never really dig into. It’s really great to finally have it all laid out.