This one was made because of the strong community response to a poll recently where people were adamant they wanted a war economics 101 video before any more focused on specific systems or the status of the war. So thanks everyone for giving me the courage to do slightly more theoretical topic. We'll be back with the next in the systems series next week. Apologies if anyone considers this video a bit of a downer (since I'm once again arguing this war could go for a good while yet) - but the reality is that from an economic standpoint I don't see any reason to think that the Russian economy will become incapable of waging war tomorrow (nor will Ukraine's as long as support continues to flow). Finally - as everyone is pointing out, short victorious wars where one side has a titanic overmatch against its opponent are reasonably common (I give the prize to the Ango-Zanzibar war) - my comments are mostly targeted at 'peer' conflicts where economic mobilisation becomes a factor.
I always like how @perun apologises for making a topic “too dull”, when in reality there’s many of us refreshing TH-cam on a Sunday night, waiting for the next pose point to drop
Loved the "You're great NZ, never change". (But sadly, as the Chrissy holidays are over, and it's technically already Monday ....... I better watch the rest in 18 hours time)
When I think of a war economy, I always think of the phrase "The Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" , except its more like "The market can stay insolvent longer than you can stay rational"
Keynes is all you need to understand economics. Neoliberals don't like him because his goal was not to make a few peopl billionaires but to have an economy which worked for everyone. Milton Friedman is one of the worst human catastrophes ever.
@@stevewatson6839 [Citation Needed] Claiming a famous economist doesn't know what he is talking about when you're a nobody on the internet is bad form. Get knowledgeable and then published, maybe you can disparage someone of stature
@@atomsk01 you can just cite other economists who disagree with Keynes, which isn't hard to find. The economists of the MMT or the Chicago school disagreed with Keynes for example.
One note on the Manhattan Project: the coils of the calutrons were built with silver because all of the copper was spoken for already and used for making wire for machines of war. Because silver was also a fine choice for any conductor it was an available option, therefore they picked that instead of diverting over a dozen thousand tonnes of copper from making wiring for fighters and bombers and other weapons of war, and _all of it_ was eventually returned to the treasury after the machine was dismantled and all of the silver wiring reworked into bars again by the 1970s. I forget the exact figures but they made sure to gather any little shavings and dust to reduce waste. We're talking something like on the order of a percent of a percent loss which, of course, still is a lot of silver in absolute terms when there were so many windings to be built and dismantled... but yes, I fully agree the material input of the project would have been prohibitive for any other wartime economy of the time no matter what they would use for their raw material. We can't exactly hand wave even more and give adversaries of the era some modern gas centrifuges, let alone anything more fancy which barely exists even today. All of that infrastructure had an energy demand on top also...
But... You only need the silver for a U235 bomb, not for a Pu239 bomb. Just wanted to note that Germany or Japan could have build The Gadget or Fat Man (and yes, I concur, only the US was able to build something like Little Boy then.)..
@@irgendwieanders2121 Producing a Fat Man-style device is still requires you to produce the reactor(s) to produce the Plutonium and be able to produce and develop the components and design of an implosion weapon.
Brass is an alloy of copper. Brass is used to make cartridge cases. Bullets are jacketed in copper, or copper based alloys for armour piercing. Copper is also used as the explosively-formed projectile in shaped charge warheads. In short, copper has a lot of military uses beyond the manufacture of wiring.
@@ScienceChap Excellent point, thank you for adding it here. So that makes for even more pressing reasons to not divert any copper for something that had an alternative - even if the alternative was eyewateringly expensive because the material was only "on loan".
The Soviet case in WW2 is a little more nuanced. Almost all modern research and history on the soviet war economy (Isaev, Glanz and many others) paint a picture that indeed even though war production started increasing after industries relocated to the east in 42, the civilian and consumer good sector virtually ceased to exist, especially after the loss of Donbas and Ukraine. Food shortages and famines were spreading in all major cities and even in the army (considering that a lot of the food was "better" supplied to the army than civilians). This was exasperated in the eastern regions where the industries relocated because those areas suddenly had to supply and support massive industries and a flood of millions of evacuated people. Economic collapse certainly doesn't mean military (or even internal) collapse, but it will put everything into a downward spiral. For the soviets, the flood of US and Allied *Food* lend-lease kept the the soviets hanging by a thread from hunger. Raw material lend-lease kept soviet industries working. Non-military goods freed the soviets from needing to spend more effort on them (clothing, radios, automobiles..etc) and much much more. Finally, the Soviet victory in Stalingrad and the Caucuses gave them the breathing space to reform and reorganize. Indeed 1943 would the year of peak total mobilisation, but in 1944 after the frontlines have moved far from the heartland, the soviets already started shifting some industries down a notch. Despite all of it, by certain measure, the USSR (and successor states) really never, even until today, recovered from the damages and devastation (Human and Material) of the war.
Interesting! US has helped both Soviets and Chinese during hard times and yet…. They are both now classed as a military threat or at least a geopolitical threat 🤔
Sovietic people will strongly disagree with you . Nobody told them they were helped by Americans and Brits with enormous quantities of materials, food and money to resist . They know that they did all by themselves , by their heroism . No matter that their recollection is fuzzy because of vodka feed to them to fight and the NKVD kommisars were behind them to encourage with a gun pointed at their head . Such an imbecilised nation is hard to find on this Earth .
Can’t stress enough how grateful and impressed I am at the existence of this channel since I discovered it at the beginning of the war While I still read the news from a decent number of sources, being a millennial TH-cam has been my generations television for the last 10 years and out of the hundreds of channels I’ve followed and seen rise and fall, come and go, there is *nothing* that has come close to the level of quality, content, and consistency of those two as this channel has been. It’s also unanimously clear from the comments that this isn’t my opinion, it’s essentially a peer reviewed fact. Thank you for everything Perun ❤
This whole talk reminds me of a quote from Keynes during WWII, "Anything we can actually do, we can afford." We've seen this applied in the staggering actions countries undertook in response to the Covid shock, to protect the economy and (sometimes) people. It's no surprise then that when framed in existential terms (whether real or imagined), a nation is capable of performing incredible feats in pursuit of survival. And most essentially but ephemerally, what sustains these frankly gargantuan tasks is the willingness of its people to persist.
Economy is a phantom concept we made up to make the movement of resources and work more efficient. Money becomes irrelevant when a nation is at war. People work until they can, resources are requisitoned as needed. In a sense it is the only real manifestation of Marx's ideas present in the real world. If you can convince enough people the only alternative to obedience is oblivion, you cqn get them to do anything.
Frankly the measures taken weren’t that big, they were more big for capitalist economies which have a really hard time sacrificing capital accumulation for the wellbeing of people. The economy takes way more radical actions all the time to oppress people and cause environmental destruction
All that covid nonsense and shutdowns are directly responsible for all the inflation and unemployment now. It turns out that we actually couldn’t afford to shut everything down and impose crazy restrictions on states, cities and populations.
@@kx7500 my dude has no clue. Have you any idea how many people in the third world starved because of the DRASTIC economic measures taken to stop covid in first world countries?
I’m 33 right now, always had a major interest in history science and military topics. I dropped out an got my GED at 16 so I could work. If you told 16yo me that I’d be enthusiastically watching hour long videos on economics, even if they had a military/history angle I would have not so politely told you a painful place you could insert quite a few and not so small items inside yourself. Presentation is everything.
Next topic I think would be interesting would be the politics and motivations of different nations. A video could be made examining the internal united states politics, support and opposition to aid to Ukraine and Europe/NATO as well as all other involved nations. It is a topic that could easily get messy, but I think it can be logically presented off by you.
TLDR The West has more guts and resources than Russia All those new tanks and trained soldiers Ukraine now has means more dead Russians Russia is getting weaker while Ukraine has gotten stronger
This would be a very messy video indeed as it comes down to individuals and factions, not even political parties. For example, in the US, the vast majority of the Republicans are for continued aid, with some wanting Biden to give even more than he has, although a sizeable minority, with a lot of overlap with the anti-McCarthy folks, are against such. The Democrats, even the relatively dove factions (which Biden is also part of), have universally been in favor of aid to Ukraine, with, again, some wanting Biden to send more. And that's just the US. Feelings in other countries such as Germany are equally complicated. At least for now, the vast majorly in most countries are still in favor. But there have been limits, and there's no guarantee such feelings will remain forever, especially with this being a longer than many people thought or hoped.
@@Geotpf I think this topic is important, I believe Perun has mentioned it a few times in some videos, but the political will to continue is a very complicated subject in all the involved countries. From Russia to the US and everything in between, the will to continue will be strained and could make or break things for Ukraine.
This helped to answer an important question for me: why is there always -- always -- money for war (or tax cuts for the wealthy) but rarely enough money for food for the hungry, healthcare for the sick or disabled, housing for the homeless, education for the young, etc. Thank you for your exhaustive research and explanation.
"War economy, noun: A model of economics which is temporarily adopted by a country whose need for survival becomes a greater priority, than maintaining the illusion that Milton Friedman was not a raving psychopath."
If Russia don't have natural resources, it will not last long. Unfortunately, Russia have natural resources and many countries like Sri Lanka, China and India need these resources. This means it is unlikely it will collapse.
It doesn't need to collapse. It just needs to feel the pinch enough that it becomes politically untenable to maintain its war footing. Remember, it picked this fight, and it can end it at any time by just withdrawing its troops. The fact that they can always just opt out of conflict means they must continuously justify the increased expense of war + the increased harm to their economy + the increased body count. And that will only get harder over time.
Canada ranks higher than Russia economically. Who cares. Russia would crush Canada head to head. Except Canada would get American help... the only thing that's keeping Ukraine in its losing game.
The new weapons package should easily push 🇺🇦 over the top when its 25k+ get back from training across 🇧🇬, 🇩🇪, 🇬🇧, 🇪🇸 & 🇫🇷 . People are just focusing on the M2s + Euro IFVs, but there is SO MUCH MORE in the list. Dozens more self-propelled howitzers, 100,000+ more shells, including thousands of precisions rounds which are each equivalent in value to about 25 dumb rounds, hundreds more M113s, HMMWVs, MRAPS, etc., etc. The M2 Bradley, just like a fighter jet, can destroy enemy tanks at BVR before the enemy even knows you’re there.
Yep, though arguably Ukraine only enjoys the 2023 window of opportunity to take advantage of those new offensive weapons, before the current U.S. administration, their main ally and coalition driver. becomes hamstrung by the recent debacle in Congress that's poised to strengthen the 'Murikin Right Wing, and Pootin!
The most exciting moment of this week: another 1 hour power point presentation Thank you Perun, good topic and very good analysis, your video make us smarter.
If you told 15 year old me that one day you will sit and listen to an Australian for an hour analyzing the numbers of war i would call bullshit but here we are.
still in process of watching so dunno if you will touch on it later on but dissolution of Soviet Union was HARD on Ukraine. Many industries worked only as a unit. In my relatively small city there were two HUGE factories, one making wires and one for concrete. A large part of population of the city worked there but both of them closed for years in the 90s bc the absolutely unreal amount of wires made sense only when they were supplying it to factories all over the Union, same with concrete, Ukraine had no need for either in those capacities. And situations like that were all over the country. People didn't receive any wages or support from the government for long periods of time (like 7 months of no wages was very common). Yet most survived. Many had family in the villages and could grow food. People were rising chickens on balconies in Kyiv. When I was in school in the 90s we had routine electricity shutdowns in the evenings as well, economy was going through it. We still remember it. And it's hard to explain how fast everyone adapts. A few days after russians started bombing powerplants and most of Kyiv had no electricity local coffeeshop across the road from me already had a diesel generator and was serving cappuccinos. We are very resilient. =D
We should have done more. The An-70 would have been a damned sight cheaper than Airbus re-inventing the wheel for instance. I don't like how the West played the East after the Soviet Union dissolved one bit. Beware we are taking you for a ride right now; but Slava Ukriani! anywho.
People in general are resilient, the point, as Perun implies, is that we don't have to be. That being said, for the post war rebuild l, Ukr is especially gifted, I imagine all our lovely Ukrainian workers here in Cz are going to find their skills cery useful in making their country truly great. I do hope in 2030,russians will look on ukr with complete envy, as ru will be even shittier than it is now, and ukr will be like central European countries :)
Small nitpick on the use of silver in the Calutrons: The engineers and scientist specified copper, but that was in very short supply. However, silver is the next best thing and the treasury had quite a lot of it. So they used that to replace copper. This is not just an example of somewhat outrageous demands being met by the government, but how urgent wartime needs can be met with creative allocation of resources - even if it would seem insane by peacetime standards. Personally, I think this is an even more impressive statement how wartime economies differ from peacetime, but I think your point came across nevertheless.
@@JohnSmith-yv6eq Not likely, silver is actually a better electrical conductor than gold or even copper. So why se something more expensive that is actually worse, when you have the other stuff.
Technically he wasn't wrong, he just left out the bit about not having 14700 tons of copper available, the important bit was that they used that amount of silver to do the job, because the government made it happen due to the war.
The correct answer is that silver is a better conductor. That 14.7 tons of Silver was used as a huge buss bar to conduct electricity. When the Army folks contacted Treasury and told them that they needed 14.7 tons of Silver the person at the Treasury department told the Army person "Sir, we measure silver in ounces, not tons" The Army got the Silver. Not sure what happened to all that Silver. And the engineers had specified Silver for the project, not copper.
@@trolland Pretty sure all of the silver was return, or at least 99% of it, since it was technically only loaned afaik. There is a section in Rhodes "making of the atomic bomb" describing the whole situation, apparently the security measures were quite strict even by Manhattan project standards.
I would like to see that expanded since the costs of unsustainable war spending did seem to be largely skipped over in this. There have been a variety of countries that resorted to unsustainable war spending, won and then faced rebellions or revolutions several years down the line because of the unsustainable spending. Regardless of how the rest of the war goes I think Russia will be in a lot more trouble in 2031 than they were in 2021.
@@ethank5059 Point taken. There is now a non-zero chance that Russia won't even exist as a united state in 2031. Maybe 5% or so, but the fact that the percentage even _exists_ is an amazing outcome of this "two week Special Military Operation".
@@ethank5059 Sadly, Russia in 2031 will depend on a lot more than the war. It's not inconceivable that Europe will see a massive turn to the right, if the EU's entire economic model gets undermined. (which could happen since Germany is sorta the main driver, and it was only price competitive due to cheap Russian gas - and even if it were to get enough LNP by 2031, the price will probably be a lot higher) Also, Trump or a Trump-like person might beat Biden in 2024, or win in 2028. If either or both of those happen, it would mean a _massive_ shift for the outlook of Russia's future. I guess we'll see how history will twist and turn until 2031...
The US rationed gas so tightly, not due to a direct shortage of Petroleum (they could have spared more), rather it was tied to (VERY) scarce and almost impossible to get for a civilian rubber (tires), which wore out fairly quickly. You were allowed a set for your car, any others got sucked up for government rationing. There's a reason that a lot of wartime cartoons treat whitewalls as virtual fetish objects. BTW bubble-gum was equally impossible to find.
One thing that I think we forget in these discussions is that "You can't do X!" is almost invariably followed by "... unless you're willing to let Y happen". For example, you can't live in a modern home through a Ukrainian winter without electricity... unless you're willing to let a bunch of people freeze to death. And often, a lot of innocent people dying is the cost, and that's why people find the idea so inconceivable in normal circumstances. But war isn't "normal times". People know that innocents will die - they hate it, but they'd hate capitulating to those invading bastards even more. So a lot of the way an economy survives is just "Yeah, grandma might freeze to death. Sorry for your loss. Now where are we on shell production?" It sounds horrid, because it is horrid, but that's how war works. It sucks, but for as long as you think losing will be even worse, you'll keep fighting anyway. It's easy to forget that in a peaceful society. "How can they endure that? The suffering is immense!" - yeah, you're right, it is immense. But we as humans are hardy sons of bitches when we need to be. Sometimes, all you can do is suffer, let the survivors mourn the fallen, and push on hoping for victory despite the tragedies.
My takeaway from this video is pretty much: War is very expensive, but also really affordable/cheap depending of how much comfort your population is willing to sacrifice. Technically you only need food and a bit of warmth to survive.
@@etuanno hardly. Have you forgotten that you can't manufacture anything without electricity and resources. How can you repair roads and bridges airport runways water supply systems Transportation networks as well as vehicles without parts and raw materials? It is far more complicated than you make it seem. Ukraine would already be done without the massive support of all the countries involved. Russia had massive stockpiles of everything before they started the war. Also Russia is not experiencing much direct destruction due to the war.
@briandbeaudin9166 Some of it can be handled the old-fashioned ways, some can be papered over, and some just doesn't happen. But that returns us to my original comment - if you can't keep your roads working without widgets, and enemy action destroys your widget supply, then you get to go to war without roads. The costs are immense, but sometimes people will pay those costs to keep fighting.
@@briandbeaudin9166 Not true. The problem with a lack of resources is a inability to conduct a formal war, instead you would have guerilla warfare with improvised IED's, ambush tactics. Pretty much what happened in Iraq. Warfare is just validated killing, and people get very creative when trying to kill each other.
What I love most about Perun's presentation is how he is able to provide a layman's example to convince us of a complex argument that most people can't do. I bet he can explain the concept Of swarm drones with a grocery store logistics example. Of all the things he is good at he sure is a great story teller.
He does tick most of the boxes in that talk Patrick Winston gave in 2018 on how to speak or how to present. Perun educates and (as you mentioned) tells a story easy to follow and interesting to listen to.
@@Com18Alpha yep because explanation how something works does not tie it all together. you need to do it practically and if thats not possible a "terotical example"
"As the new director of the Department of Victory, I am confident our enemy's economy will collapse any day now." "Sir! There's been a massive shift in consumer demand in our enemy's economy!." "They've stopped buying cars?" "No, they've started buying Victory!"
As long as the leaders* You need to have a very dissident population if you can't make them go to the front, Now im not saying they will be happy and your soldiers would probably defect but peoples will have no real say in this.
This requires a picking apart of the 'nation' and the 'nation state'. You could say the people were willing during the Soviet occupation during the cold war, resistance movement etc. But that's not the same as the nation applying taxation income to nationalised heavy industry.
It is not estimated that Paraguay lost the majority of its male population, it is estimated they lost the vast majority of it. The last 2 battles where fought almost entirely by child sodiers.
Estimate is around 70%, and the battle you mention was a point where the army was just a group of around 300 people most not even soldiers following Solano Lopez until the end
@@Marinealver I don't know how often there are power outages in California, but given that the Canadians can just open the hydro tap and pump down more electricity, I promise you California does not have the same level of problem as the South Africans. That doesn't mean that they don't moan more, though.
@@Marinealver Nope. We cut off power only for storms and fires for safety reasons. We talk about the possibility of rolling blackouts. There was an artificially generated energy crisis around 2000-2001. Summers are now well-managed; last summer, we had 15% from solar during peak demand hours.
I love the note about Y12 needing 14K tons of silver. When they started construction, Colonel Nichols (in charge of procurement) asked Usec of Treasury Daniel Bell for silver. The conversation went like this: Bell : 'What for?' Nichols: 'Classified, sir' Bell: 'Well, how much silver?' Nichols: 'Six thousand tons, sir.' (Short pause) Bell: 'Son, you may think of silver in tons, but the US treasury will always think of it in Troy ounces." The US had 47,000 tons of silver stockpiled and ended up handing over 14,000 tons to the project. When the war was over, they got all but 4.9 tons - 0.35 of 1 percent - back.
That 1% was so radioactive that it was placed in an abandoned gold mine in the New Mexico desert and partially back-filled. My father helped stash the silver and contracted cancer due to exposure to the radioactivity. On his deathbed he drew me a map of the mine's location. The 4.9 tons of silver is no longer radioactive and is there for the taking. However, I don't have the financial resources to initiate such a project on my own, so I'm looking for financial backers. If I can find ten investors willing to invest $50,000 each we can retrieve that silver and we'll become fabulously wealthy!
Seizing oligarch money is a time honored tradition, too. When the Duke of Alba tried to subdue the rebellious Netherlands, he seized the money located at the Fugger Faktorei in Antwerp to pay his troops, worth billions in today's terms. Unlike most people in such a situation, the Fugger actually got their money back after a few years, as they threatened to stop supplying the Spanish King with the mercury he needed to get the silver out of its South American ores...
Lebanon has been doing this for a few years (encountered the issue at work last month). Official ForEx rate is ~1500 = USD$1; the internal bank rate is ~40,000 = USD$1. If you have a bank account in Lebanon, you are FUBAR.
Lucky bastards, the canton of Bern never got its treasury back from Napoleon he stole from us in 1798... The Canton of Bern was the mightiest city state north of the Alps before he came. A dude once calculated with a very conservative interest plan, it would be worth roughly 600 billion Swiss Franks now. Or 100 years worth of taxes of the Canton of Bern with the current spending. We got so rich because we sold a fuckton of mercenaries to pretty much everybody since the 15th century.
@@etuanno well, yeah, but they arguably were the enemy for Napoleon. The Fugger were the most important financiers of both the Austrian and, to a lesser degree, the Spanish Habsburg. Alba was kinda freelancing there, like Wagner today in UKR...
War is usually a pretty good distributor of wealth funnily enough. When every man is reduced to his base utility "has money" is usually the least of the quality searched. In France we had SO much social advancement AFTER WW2 ! Well i says usually as the US demonstrated that as long as you keep war foreign enough it's a wonderfull machine of profit.
As a resident rod the Detroit area, the history of converting the auto plants over to war production is a big thing here. Everyone has a story about how their (great) grandparents went off to fight or worked in the factories. Many of the old timers that are still a round take pride in the fact the the plant they worked at produced this or that for the war effort. Packard, that famously built the American version of the Rolls Royce Merlin, is the poster child for firms that went down because they had a difficult time converting back to peacetime production.
How is Detroit doing today? Have you noticed factories coming back online? I keep hearing how Detroit is "getting better", but what has that entailed exactly so far?
@@Anthony-jo7up detroit turning into fallout irl was not really directly related to the war effort, although it was influenced by it. Well...this part is subjective as its a complex issue. regardless, the bit about detroit getting better is simply that it can only crash and burn for so long before people either entirely abandon it, or some things get fixed eventually. Simple statistics overall, crime rates, infrastructure, business investments, etc are improving although there is still quite a bit more that can be done. by improving i mean 1970s vs today. Past decade the trend is harder to see, but you can still make out a vague trend of things getting better.
@@nanonano2595 i suppose it wont get better until stealing water heaters isnt a thing anymore in detroit. ripping out copper wires i expected, but god damn, the whole water heater tank.
War equipments back then were much more simpler than they are now. I don't think you can just convert auto factory to war equipments factory just like that nowadays.
"A Short Victorious War" is one of my favorite sci-fi stories, since that book kicks off a war that lasts for over a dozen books and something like 30 years. All because the antagonists thought they could take out the protagonist nation with a rapid surprise attack (which turned out to be neither rapid nor a surprise).
As much as David Weber had gone off rails in his later books (consequence of a lack of editors to tell him no), Honor Harrington is still a fun read. On the other hand, one of the best comments I saw about "short victorious wars" was this. "If your officers promise that you will be back home by Christmas, just shoot them. And then go and shoot the politicians who are telling the same. You'd have a higher chance of actually being home by Christmas that way."
During WWII, while we were occupied by Germany, the Norwegian National Bank issued so-called "nødsedler" - literal translation, emergency notes. Instead of producing 1 and 2 kroner coins, they made cheap paper notes with the same value. These bank notes soon acquired colloquial nicknames. The 1 kroner note was called an "usling" (scoundrel), and the 2 kroner note was called a Quisling. As you can see, you needed two scoundrels to have one Quisling.
@@yurisonovab3892 'Quisling' as a generic term for traitor is still fairly well known; Quisling himself was notorious as the Norwegian head of Nazi-controlled Norway.
This was very enlightening. I've wondered for a long time how a war economy actually works, and how it differs from a peacetime economy. Thanks a lot for this significant piece of free education.
41:13 As a Hungarian I am proud that Hungary holds the world record for inflation. 100trillion note? Please we had 100million billion notes at one point. that is 6 orders of magnitude higher then what Zimbabwe had.
Careful -- billion, trillion and above can mean two different things. In the US, a billion = 1000 million, most of the rest of the world that is a milliard and a billion = 1,000,000 x a million, 3 orders of magnitude higher. For trillions the discrepancy is doubled. I actually held a 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollar note in my hand, and it was $100,000,000,000,000 -- i.e. "trillion" in the US sense, not $100,000,000,000,000,000,000 -- i.e. trillion in the European sense.
Ah my weekly dose of Perun Insights, right on time. It's absolutely staggering how much knowledge Perun has about these subjects & is able to concisely share it all with us.
@@mcbrite I believe he's said that he has never worn a uniform. There is a good possibility that he works in a defense related field as a civilian based on the amount of knowledge he has on military and economic matters.
Something to be careful of with people like this is in an organization someone like perun would provide some facts and figures to someone who would then compare to other facts and figures and make a decision. Here Perun is presenting the facts and figures to himself and drawing his own conclusion. Nothing against him, he does a good job but the underlying motivation is often skewed and makes some big mistakes with his fundamentals (i.e he will build a gorgeous mansion but use jelly in half the foundations) So worth listening to, but be careful assuming any conclusions are as good as fact.
This was all summed up by the father of capitalism, Adam Smith, who said, "there is a great deal of ruin in a nation"". It's a quote I mentally go back to in a lot of contexts. It means a lot of things all at once, but primarily that there is a lot that can be ruined, but there is a lot that would need to be ruined in order for a nation to actually "collapse". The man who wrote "The Wealth of Nations" understood how much actual stuff there is to a country, and appreciated how much effort would be necessary to take it down.
It always feels like a lifetime before I get my next Perun fix...then he releases the 43rd Ukraine-Russia War analysis video on a schedule rivaled only by that of an atomic clock.
I want say this on the chance that you see this, I love these economic videos, as it's using a very practical real-world case to explain the principles and theory of wartime economics. This is interesting, and I love these videos. Thank you for making so much quality content over the last year, and I hope to see more of these educational videos in the year to come. Thank you Perun.
@@ethank5059 At least the Danes fought back. The Anglo-Zanzibar war is entirely lopsided as the British just shelled the heck out of the Zanzibar sultanate from a distance behind the safety of a natural defensive barrier called "the sea". The Sultan's soldiers couldn't even fire back as their artillery pieces were the very first things to be targeted and destroyed...
@@MrNicoJac Raise a white flag from the tallest pole you can muster and hope the naval vessels have some people with telescopes scanning your blasted-out coastline.
@@ethank5059 And some of the Danish units kept the fight going many hours past the government surrender till they run out of ammo, merely since no one told them the war was over. Their German counterparts didn't think of it, and they cut the phone lines, so no one else could. Pretty heroic considering how outmatched they were in any case.
As others have pointed out, the original design specified copper but copper was a critical material and diverted to electrics and electronics in vehicles, ships and aircraft. So the Manhattan Project was lent the silver from the Treasury. Silver has somewhat better characteristics (lower electrical resistance and better heat conductivity) so using it actually made the MP processes more efficient.
Sun Tzu addresses this point directly: "Sun Tzu said: In the operations of war, where there are in the field a thousand swift chariots, as many heavy chariots, and a hundred thousand mail-clad soldiers, with provisions enough to carry them a thousand LI, the expenditure at home and at the front, including entertainment of guests, small items such as glue and paint, and sums spent on chariots and armor, will reach the total of a thousand ounces of silver per day. Such is the cost of raising an army of 100,000 men." "Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue."
"If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” - Sun Tzu "Kyiv was just a feint! Withdrawing from Snake Island was a good-will gesture! Ukraine military is dead, we're defeating the dregs of NATO now!" - Vranyo
Not gonna lie Perun, but I don’t think you’re doing yourself any favours when the section called “opening words” has to be followed by the be section “what am I talking about” 😂😅
It's a sign of the times we live in that I watch an hour long presentation about economics and enjoy every second of it. Thank you so much for your hard work!
@@patrickstar5136 the Story is about willingness to fight with whatever you got and only an anecdote of History. But yeah, you can also just say destroy it :D
Oh, is that the Killdozer guy? Killdozer was honestly a pretty awesome story, especially since he didn't actually kill anyone except possibly himself. There's conflicting accounts as to whether the police managed to kill him in one of their attempted raids on the Killdozer or he killed himself. But ultimately he only did property damage to a bunch of dickwads in the town that had left him finically ruined and he wasn't going to be able to beat in court (since he had no money). So he modified his tractor/bulldozer farming equipment thing into a tank.
It is impressive how Finnish economy survived wars with Soviet Union. It wasn't pretty, my relatives got to enjoy things like famine, but it did survive.
Yeah, my family lived thro the Holodomor, we're familiar with Moscow-induced famine too. Leave it to the sadistic russians to weaponize famine as a means of genocide. They've been disgustingly brutal to everyone around them for centuries, the list of atrocities is really just mind-boggling.
@@Lusa_Iceheart But THIS is the reason why Ukraine is clearly so strong and motivated. This is why some Eastern European countries have given strong support. This is why whole Europe should give support!
@@anomymouse5043 You're preaching to the choir! Eastern Europe knows what it's like under Moscows boot, which is why we're never going to submit again. I'm glad I can help influence people here in America and help keep support for my family's original homeland. I still have family there too, in the trenches. Since I can't fight myself or help in a direct manner, I help with spreading information and changing opinions where I can here in the US. I've found that most of my fellow Americans support Ukraine, and despite party-line talking points it really only boils down to 'how much support' (ie fear of boots on the ground and another Afghanistan) and even the most skeptical are just concerned the money is being stolen before it gets to where it needs to go. If our politicians could do a better job sorting out those concerns and clarifying things better it's a no-brainer what US policy should be. But unfortunately it's too easy for the two-party system to use Ukraine as yet another divided issue. If one side is for the other has to be against even if there really isn't a rational reason for it. Both sides do this shit and it's really annoying to the average American. Perun and most non-Americans I've found have a tendency to have a view into American politics that's distorted b/c our news programs are all on this same sort of divide. There's no such thing as non-partisan news anymore in America, that business model doesn't work when clickbait and rage inducing articles are what sells news media. So from the outside Americans seem a LOT more divided on issues and a lot more radicalized, but ultimately it's just a fiction that sells more ad slots and rakes in more subscriptions to pay-per-view media like the New York Times or Wall St Journal. Talk to people on the street, be it in an urban city or a rural town, most Americans agree putin is a shitbag and they want Ukraine to win. They'd like to avoid nukes coming out and the vast majority would like to avoid US troops being sent to fight (everyone is sick of the Middle east shit) but money and weapons are easy to supply. The money we've sent so far has barely been a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the trillions of dollars spent over the last year, the money printer is already going brrr, everyone sees the inflation, everyone knows we're ALREADY in a recession but there's a level of satisfaction in finally smashing the Soviets in a conventional fight. And we get to do it without actually being in the war. It's like dancing on the grave the US's longtime enemy, there's a catharsis in that people like too much and is easily worth the what amounts to the change we've been sending to Ukraine. That's a better picture of how Americans feel about the situation, better than what you'll get from CNN or Fox or any of the clickbait crap that parades around as journalism.
A grandparent looked at his kid playing in the summer, some time after the war, and said coldly: "You're not going to rebuild this country messing around like that." (in Finnish: Tuolla touhulla ei kyllä tätä maata jälleenrakenneta.)
@@Lusa_Iceheart First: I am very sorry if the comment was taken as preaching. I want to salute brave Eastern European countries (namely Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) for their support and Ukraine for fighting for the whole Europe. Second, I want to salute you for spreading the Ukraine information in the US. Third, I want to thank you for giving more rational picture of American people. Fight the division! I think the unpleasant people can find division as a tool for their personal agenda. And Russia and China naturally. Fourth, I have long hoped that Europe and USA would send expert military people to Ukraine. What if we could send experts, say to training, maintenance, logistics and to information gathering to Ukraine. Notice that this would NOT be Middle-East. The Ukrainians would greet these people with open arms. Furthermore, the European militaries would collect in this process knowledge on how to battle Russia.
It hurts my head to think of the effort required to properly research, distill, organize, and produce something like this. Glad I’m retired from such doings, and appreciate it all the more from the easy chair. Thank you.
An observation and a question. One of the things that helped the US convert to a war economy so quickly was a system of "educational contracts" started in the late 1930s. The Army would give a non-military manufacturer--for example, a company that made sewing machines or jukeboxes--a contract for a small quantity of military equipment--say, maybe, 1,000 .45 caliber pistols. The Army would pay the retail price of the pistols plus the full cost of tooling and setting up the production line. The manufacturer would thereby learn how to mass produce .45s without losing money on a limited production run of an unfamiliar product. In return, the manufacturer would be required to keep the tooling and production equipment in storage so that, when war broke out, it could quickly convert from civilian goods to war production. How much of an effect does the pervasive presence of "vranyo" have on the Russian war economy? I would think it would be harder to make all the necessary adjustments and reallocations of resources if the decision-makers can't be confident that the information they have reflects the actual reality of the economy.
Yub, fully agree, it's s bloody great idea. At least then they'll be doing something for society for once, instead of mooching off everyone's hard work or destroying it by shorting. And trying to deregulate everything, but whining for regulation as soon as someone uses their own tactics against them. Gamestop was a thing of beauty! However, I fear such a regiment or division would need an inordinate ammount of Commissars of the more conservstive bent, as Ciaphas Cain would put it....
Finance bros are very good at constructing and rationalizing falsehoods that may seem reasonable in order to win over investors and superiors. In other words they possess the perfect qualities for Russian Mobilization.
@@sixstringedthing No, maybe we need some of the people that run the local bank, maybe the manager that runs it. Anything above is too rotten. Especially the whole Investment 0banking sector as is now we don't need. I'm not saying those people aren't skilled, but are they significantly better than others and can we trust them? Change my mind.
My father, who was managing a Citroen factory back in France, toll me that in the safe's factory were plans to switch production from civilian vehicles to military vehicles in case of war. This was in the 70's.
Thanks for an interesting snippet of Cold War history! Lots of things I took for granted as a child, like the "Protect and Survive" leaflets in the event of a nuclear exchange, are forgotten by the millennials.
5:30 The Faklands was a short war from one perspective but not another. For the UK it was short 2.5 months... for Argentina it was long, because they thought there wouldn't be a war.
12:11 I would extend on that and say the whole cliché about German efficiency is a myth. Germany is organized. Everything is done a certain way and works brilliantly when it everything is done and works as intended. But if you try to change parameters, oh boy, that's gonna be difficult.
You could argue the Prussian culture was efficient, but that didn't necessarily extend to all of Germany as a great deal of Germans resented the stuffy Prussians.
@@Edax_Royeaux Not really. The Prussians aren't known to be flexible outside of the military. True, they encourage military officers to exercise unit initiative to fulfill a mission objective, they aren't as efficient outside that as Prussian society is very much stratified. No general staff officer or high-level government there came from any other class than the Junkers and the Junkers is the most socially-backward social class in Germany at the time...
This is why Southwest Airlines melted down -- they had a beautifully, maximally efficient scheduling system, when there were no problems. One major storm and all of a sudden a few cancelations mess up their entire downlines, and now no crews are where they need to be, there are more cancelations, and the whole thing flops.
Perun, thanks again for your fine work. This one reminds me of you video some 8 months ago on “who wins a war of attrition.” You concluded, quite accurately, that the West would not run out of weapons to supply Ukraine and that the goal for the West “is political as much as military.” What is much clearer now, is that Ukraine’s military is much larger, and better equipped and trained, than the start of the war. While likely more poorly equipped and certainly more poorly trained, Russia probably has more “boots on the ground” than the start of the war. General Ben Hodges view is that victory for Ukraine is “inevitable” but no one really knows how long it will take. It seems to me that the issue for the West remains “political as much as military.” Could you perhaps address the political issues. Will the West grow tired too soon as that appears to be the current Russian hope and strategy? .
I suspect that that's outside Perun's wheelhouse. National will and determination is much more of a political topic and doesn't really break down into publicly sourced numbers to display and play with.
Perun's professional background is in economics. Put simply, he knows a lot more about that than he does of politics. Besides, if you think economic forecasts are unreliable wait until you have a look at political forecasts ...
When they needed the coils for the calutron solenoids to produce fissile material they asked for thousands of tonnes of copper. The request was balked at because copper was a critical war resource for brass shell casings and the like. However it was pointed out to the army officers in charge of procuring resources that silver was actually better than copper (it is the best conductor on the planet) and the U.S had plenty of it lying around in the treasury's storage doing not very much. The programme got the thousands of tonnes of silver much to the treasury's astonishment, but not before every single ounce was carefully accounted for before and after they were finished with it. One must imagine the impressiveness of being assigned an even better material than one asked for. The project was seriously heavyweight.
No doubt corruption would see much of it lost! The leash was very tight here. Painstaking recovery of the silver after the project meant very little of it was lost. Filings were scooped up, all bits from machining the coils accounted for. Supposedly this extended to the floorboards around the now obsolete machinery being ripped up and burned so that any scraps of silver would be found and retained. If only that kind of attention to detail were exercised by civil servants today!
Excellent presentation, as always! However, the Dept. of Victory decided that you're producing tanks now instead of TH-cam videos, so, if you don't have anything to show in 3 weeks, we're nationalizing your channel.
Two things are ignored in this video: 1. Russia can continue for a long time because they have surplus of food & energy production. 2. They can't make modern weapons because they can't produce advanced electronics or import them. So, the battle comes down to increasingly one-sided fights between Ukrainian forces armed with advanced NATO weapons like HIMARS versus Russian weapons from the 1980s. Maybe Russia can suffer along for a while throwing cannon fodder into human wave attacks, but the West can increasingly give Ukraine weapons that Russia can't match tilting the military balance. What happens when NATO gives Ukraine 190 km ATACMS missiles that can destroy the Kerch bridge? Russia loses Crimea. There are lots of such weapons systems they can give. The only reason this hasn't been done so far is fear of escalation. But, as escalation happens anyway NATO ends up sending Patriot missiles and Leopard tanks? Victory Ukraine.
How can this Ukraine fanboys not see Russia can not lose; a nuclear power like a Russia will not lose to a non nuclear power. There is a big bomb that will be dropped before they actually lose and the West will not do much after that to prevent MAD. Only fools believe Russia will lose, they may not win, but Ukraine and NATO are not going to win this war.
@@mitchellanderson3960 How can Russia-bots not understand that Nukes have NO offensive utility at all because using them leads to full scale war. NATO will respond with retaliation against Russia - it need not be nuclear to destroy the Russian military. Putin will then be faced with accepting total defeat and the overthrow of his regime, or escalating again to full scale nuclear war -- which will instantly result in his own death. Putin realizes this which is why he hasn't used Nukes, despite Russia losing the war badly and facing a slow inevitable defeat. Slow is better than quick. And he still hopes the west will get tired and give up. That isn't happening, but it's his only hope.
I remember learning about debasement of coinage in England during Tudor times to fight the various wars with France, starting with Wolsey and ramping up during the regencies of Lord Somerset and the Duke of Northumberland during Edward VI's reign. Debasement could occur in the form of adding base metals such as lead, copper or tin into silver coinage, or through clipping the edges of the coinage and using the clippings to smelt more coins. This caused rising inflation before inflation was properly defined as a concept, with predictable results. (Ultimately the Crown issued a recall of the debased coins to have them resmelted during Elizabeth I's reign).
This was commonplace long before Tudor times. When Jesus turned over the money changers tables in the Temple for example. Their job was to ensure purity in tribute, due to rampant debasement, rarely available.
@@royjacobs1204 Yeah Roman coinage starting with the early Empire began a steady pace of debasement. After Augustus set the mintage standards, most of the following Emperors slowly chipped away at the percentage, each cutting another percent or so. It got to the point there was basically only a small flake worth of silver in a denarii coin and it was almost entirely lead. The Money Printer going Brrrr is just the modern version of debasement, the original post was right about that. Not a damn thing 'Modern' about 'Modern Monetary Theory' in that regard, just new circular logic to justify an ancient trap governments gleefully dive into b/c it solves their near-term problems.
It's worth pointing out that English kings had a lot more reason to get... creative with their treasury, compared to continental monarchs, since they've had to deal with Parliament since the Magna Carta was shoved down their throats.
@@royjacobs1204 Not quite. Their job was to change the local coin to the Tyrian Shekel, the coin that had to be used to pay for sacrifices and the Temple tax. The Tyrian Shekel was 94% rather than the Roman equivalent 80% silver and the Temple had control of the mint.
Perun I love your videos. They've helped me understand this conflict so much beyond it being the Russo-Japanese War 2 Ukrainian Boogaloo. The fact you do this for *free* blow my goddam mind. Keep up the good work my dude.
@@walden6272 If you think that Perun ran a channel for a minor nerdy gaming topic (so think stamp collecting for train spotters) then he as never motivated by financial gain and was YTer for share knowledge on a given topic. This came up and he started sharing a lot of his own knowledge on the economic / macro aspects of conflict related to this particular conflict. That it has taken off, though great, could never have been expected as Perun has stated.
@@walden6272 True but Perun is also donating most of the revenue to humanitarian charities in Ukraine so this clearly isn’t his full time job. While it’s never been explicitly stated I do think it’s clear he works somewhere in or adjacent to the defense industry and typically those jobs pay for a middle class or above lifestyle.
@@ethank5059 I remember Sam Bankman Fried once told his fans he plans to donate all his fortune to help humanity. He pretended to sleep in his old apartment and drive the same car to give people the impression he doesn't care about the money. Now the truth came out, he stole people money in FTX and live a lavish lifestyle. Bought his parents a $200 Million dollar mansion. I'm just saying don't always believe what people tell you no matter how genuine they sound. TH-camrs in general are always after 3 things: fame, money, or attention.
@@ethank5059 you really don't read journalists (which sitting in Ukraine) reports about these charities, where maybe a 100 bucks reach destination, not counting famous scandal how bosses of charities first collect their millions salaries, leftovers to help. In Ukraine volunteers made from locals, which are same post soviets very criminal population. There was a scandal in Mariupol how Red cross volunteers not helping anyone in famous Theater shelter but using status to have a place in shelter, in other time robbing local shops (many witnesses).
Can we summarize this as "a wartime economy sustains production at the expense of countless types of wealth, luxury goods, credit, living standards and market efficiencies in the economy. And most modern economies have a ton of those!" ?
Anyone looking for an example of a war time economy, see Canada in WW2. One of the least populated nations in the world produced the world’s third largest navy, and huge army and air units.
For what it's worth, the 3rd largest navy thing is something of an exaggeration. IIRC, it was 4th place for a few days, if you include certain landing ships but exclude minelayers. There's a lot of extremely creative accounting involved in the claim.
@@nathankonrad4059 Go talk to Alexander Clarke, naval historian and a Doctor of War. He did a series called Five Problems which looked into the RCN in a fair bit of detail.
There is a unique quality to your detailed explanations that is difficult to describe: after I've watched one of your videos, I often say to myself, "Well, that was perfectly obvious, I'm pretty sure that I knew that all along." But in fact, I gained most of my "knowledge" by watching your video. Your skill at explaining and setting out complex chains of information are so smoothly accomplished, that they seem to be coming from my own thoughts, and not from your video. Does that even make sense?
I've figured the US Budget is more along the lines of: 1) US Government creates the money out of thin air, to purchase things the government needs/wants (goods, services, land, etc) 2) The money circulates around the economy, as the people producing stuff for the government want to buy stuff for themselves also 3) The IRS through taxes destroys money, encouraging people to keep going out and doing something to benefit the country The key with the 'debt' is that there is a slowly increasing money supply to keep inflation under control. Debt is effectively a measure of how much money is in circulation in the economy. Example: In year 1 a nation has a 10 billion dollar budget, and that year takes in 9 billion in taxes. It is technically in debt, but now there is an additional billion dollars in the economy. This can cause prices to price due to inflation. The next year that same country does a 10 billion budget and 10 billion in taxes. There is no change in amount of dollars in circulation. The third year the nation has a 10 billion budget, and takes in 11 billion in taxes. The total number of dollars in circulation drops by 1 billion dollars, and can cause stagnation/deflation. To get a real-life example of what I mean, look up the following pieces of data from the Clinton years: 1) total savings in bank accounts 2) level of US debt You will find that the two are almost identical. Clinton's attempts to reduce the US debt caused US savings levels to drop, as the reduced debt meant money was being taken out of the economy.
@@Emanon... 2022(includes covid19 spending) funds available to the D.O.D. I think they got tasked with all emergency production funds for vaccines, medication, equipment,etc. www.usaspending.gov/agency/department-of-defense?fy=2022
One of my favorite to date. Living in a Pacific Coast port on a former base means the vestiges of the both foriegn and domestic economic policy are everywhere. But that was fought by my parents' parents and they didn't teach us anything about WW1 or 2 other than the fact we won. But looking at the empty shipyards, hangers and bunkers is only the obvious. A quick word search of name of street I live in led to a civilian volunteer in NY and NCO who helped the Army supply the US troops in Mexico using a civilian aircraft brigade. The mission to chase down Pancho Villa was in dire need with no one there willing to sell more bullets. A wealthy attorney who trained at Wright Bros saw the present need and pushed gov't to facilitate training pilots just ahead on WW1. Things change fast in responses to new threats and sometimes create solutions and new problems. That what I found at the bottom of the rabbit hole. Viva Mexico. I love that country and its economyy could use a Perun episode or twelve. *fun fact: when Pancho fell out of favor with the US he did find a new supplier in Germany granted they could park oil tankers in Tampico. He declined and sheninanigans ensued. Hence Zimmerman telegram. Viva Mexico. Procurement wins wars.
I love your content! I love that it shows that we are NOT just click zombies that have an attention span of 10 min tops as the big media outlets believe! Never change your PPP-style :D
If TH-cam believed that was true they would have kept the old ten minute time limit. Unless the contention is that, despite longer form being allowed on the platform, attention spans continued to shrink.
The Calutrons used silver because there was a massive shortage of copper which was being used for the war effort. That is why they got the silver from the Treasury. If copper had been available, they would have used copper.
My grandpa was a German saddlemaker and upholsterer in WW2. Leatherwork at that time and long after was still largely a manual craft and only to some degreee machine assisted. The sewing machines in my Grandpas home workshop used for making horse riding saddles from heavy duty leather were all hand stitched even in 1990. The hand stiched saddles and snaffle-bits he handmade were primarily used by the German olympic team. He was regularly visited by younger people seeking to apprentice on his skill to contiue making the required quality for high-end gear that would not fail your during use. Regarding the German war economy horse gear to keep the logistics of the ground warfare going was putting a strain o the leatherware industry using at that time heavy foot pedal driven flywheel driven leather sewing machines. Electric ones would too easily break their needles, as they would have no microcontroller to regulate their power output. Sewing leather with a machine requires a lot of training. Putting female and slave workes from manually stitching repair work on clothing to manually stiching aircraft seats is a big deal. The material is a fair bit harder and you are more likely to pinch your finger. A good stiching is still a good stiching that is easily to visually inspect with a gun in hand of the KZ supervisor of your labor camp. Sabotaging a sewing machine parts is rather easy. I would assume German war industry did know pretty well why they chose to hand-sticht aircraft upholstery work manually - as evil and sinister as those incentives probablöy were. Pls. also note that companies making sewing machines in my hometown area were converted to other products like tanks and gun mount parts. They had the mills and lathes to assemble fast-spining rotary machinery with high precision ball bearing seats and skilled workers to make the tools & jigs for that quickly. The US did transition to war economy for selling theuir arms to the UK and Russia while not being pressed to mobilize soldiers. It is very dicey to make a singluar "they didn't even do that" singular argument out of context to prove or differentiate a certain point. Especially when that is likely an armchair historians reflection who never ever worked in any leather factory or craft-woirkshop themselves. In my teenage years in the 1980ies/1990ies my grandpa was a lone survivor in a dead profession. It was mostly gone by the 1960ies. The few countries who still do farm with horse & carriage get cheap converyor belt leatherwares today or they are stitched by child labour in some remote place on the economic level of Afghanistan. Letherwork is many times still painful manual labor even today, when it is about certain thickness, quality or fits ov leather. One prime example is footballs, where the inside out fit cannot be machined. The same goes for some parts of leather shoes. This also reflects on certain parts of leather shoes sewing machines needing longer wider arms. So you run into difficulties of management balance to ramp up tank and gun mount production at the same time when increasing the need for sewing machines for leatherware in logictics, military boots and aircraft seats. In many cases when throwing money at a problem won't fix it, blood, seat and tears will. It often is a "minimal re-training" approach to use the skills of the workforce. You can more quickly raise an army of leather hand-stitchers than any alternative.
Having sewn (thinner) leather by hand and with a (semi-industrial) machine, I can confirm. Once leather gets beyond about 2 mm or so, you either do it by hand, or you need a *lot* of skill and special machines, tools, etc. The machine I use can work well at *slow* speeds, but even *that* is closer to a bandaid!
@@irvhh143 Also important was the abandonment of conscription, as willing and well-compensated soldiers are better at the job of soldiering. Then, of course, the US has educational and medical benefits for military veterans and preference for some jobs such as postal workers.
This brilliant Perun-esque exposé proves the Eastern european (once again) right when it comes to Russia : for this war to end fast, we have to provide the UAF with what they ask for. As cynical as it may sounds, the key to a quick victory is to cause overwhelming losses to the ennemy in the shortest span of time possible. Like I said to my cadets back in the years, if you don't want to have to chase the prey around all day, be the snake versus the rabbit : first, casually crawl forward and hypnotise ; second, bite as fast and hard as possible ; third, poison and immobilize ; fourth, swallow it all in a single move. For the last 25 years, Russia has done it by the book. Worked each time until feb. 2022 when they tried to bite Ukraine and suddenly realized the rabbit was a mongoose and that it had friends. Edit : typos (thousand apologies, the most decisive of which is : I'm a froggie 😁 )
Why? Not our war; not our enemy; and besides, Ivan couldn't fight his way out of a wet paperbag. There is no national interest; no concievable threat; and we shouldn't be throwing our geld at them to our own detriment.
@@stevewatson6839 I beg to differ and for four main reasons. For the sake of debate, I'll assume you're an american. First, for an imperialist autocracy to back off, and I mean really back off, it's not enough to merely repel its forces or just to stand your ground. 94-96 : the Chechens managed to throw back the Russians. 99 : The Empire strikes back with even more power, crushes everything in its path, including Grozny, and swallow Chechnya. On the contrary, in 79-89, the U.S.-backed Afghans punished the Soviets so painfully that they turned tail never to return. Second, there is a very big national interest for america in terms of geopolitics. The U.S. have Russia exactly where they would not have dare to dream of : a high intensity proxy war where they can grind Moscow military without losing a single man, revitalize NATO, provoke a wake-up call in the UE defence complex and secure the European front. This done the U.S. will be able to focus towards China and the Pacific. Best deal ever. Third, it must be a good time to own an american arms company : the whole world is witnessing the blatant limits of russian stuff in real time and 4K, and thus starts buying made-in-Murica. Not to mention the petrol and shale-gas exports. Jobs, income, Ka-tchink. Fourth, and for me at least the bigger reason : noone like bullies. Until they're beaten back, they will keep on bullying. Russia is a bully. This bully invades countries, destroys cities, kills people. This has to stop and the sooner the better. Sanctions are at best slow to yield results. Hence let's give the ukrainians the tools they need. Simple as that.
That stat on Paraguay after the war of the triple alliance is insane. It wasn't even just a majority of the male population, it was a vast majority. In the census taken after the war, women outnumbered men by 4 to 1.
Heissenberg and Von Weisacker were stunned when they saw the vast scale of the Manhattan Project after WW2, and the first thing they said was Germany was never able to have invested a similar amount of funds in their Uran Verband.
An excellent analysis (as always) by Perun but with one minor Putin-created flaw. In all of Perun's examples, the nations were "at war". People did their patriot duty by buying war bonds because their nation was "at war". The general population mobilized into war production producing near total employment because the nation was "at war". But Russia and therefore Russians are not "at war". Russia has only been conducting a "Special Military Operation". The unemployment rate in Russia at the moment is estimated as being in excess of 30%. Russia is not in a war economy. For Putin to use /all/ the tools Perun mentions, he needs to convince the Russian people that they are "at war". But the problem with that is, Putin runs the risk of Russians starting to ask "It was only a special military operation. How did it become a war? Someone must have messed up for it to have gone so bad. Who do we blame?" Putin has kept power by inducing rampant political apathy in the Russian populace. To move to a war economy requires high levels of patriotism, the opposite of political apathy. If Putin awakens the political giant, he may face Revolution. If he doesn't, he faces Failure Mode 2 through the loss of critical production simply because he wasn't able to mobilize the population to war production. How long will Russia last as a result? Impossible to guess. Putin might not have all the levers available to a war-time leader but he has many of them. He can keep going for quite some time. But for Putin, the clock is ticking. His only hope is that Ukraine's allies stop supporting Ukraine before time runs out.
Putin put not only his regime but his life on the line in this gamble. Considering his one man rule over Russia, he will pull every lever available to him to try and squeek out a win. He's not afraid at all to impose pain on his sheepish population or risk long term economic consequences. His life depends on it. On the other side, Ukraine is facing cultural genocide and loss of sovereignty. Even though popular support may be different on the respective sides, it appears this will go on for some time. Thanks again for another great presentation Perun! Well done!
There are so many police forces in Russia, even little one-man protest is literally impossible, not talking about mass protests. Just look at Belarus protests to see an example what will be, and russian scenario will be 150% more violent to people. If you think that russians supports this war or genocide or even Putin - you are wrong. Telling you this as russian.
i was going to say, Russia has to endure hardships to keep the war going. Ukrainians have to endure hardships to keep living. This makes motivation hard for one, easy for another. All the Ukrainian government has to do is show they are still fighting and they will have local support. Russia has to keep coming up with motivations, distractions, bandaids, replacements, appeasements to keep its population in support and not under duress. Because if too many wealthy Russians suddenly find they can't drive their fancy car, that might be enough for them to turn against the war. Ukrainians are literally living on wood stoves for heating, water and food cooking, and still support the defence of Ukraine and the war economy.
Since the war started, this question has always been on my mind. Especially after Armenia and Azerbaijan almost got bankrupt within 2 months due to the nagorno-karabakh conflict. appreciate this explanation.
Zimbabwe not only handed out 1 Trillion Dollar notes... I have a 50 Trillion (50000000000000) Dollar note in my wallet at all time. Ive been in Zimbabwe back in 2009 and have fond memories buying a single cigarette for 50 Trillion. that`s 50000000000000 or 5*10^13 If I remember correctly I spent 2.000 Trillion (that`s 15 zeros!!) in 100 trillion dollar notes on a single meal. to put it in perspective: 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollar used to be ~0.40 USD
Wont help. Any corperation did not just pack up and leave. They sold their parts in those countries to russian place holders ( those fake russian knockoffs in mcdonalds for example)which they will either buy back or outcompete once sanctions drop. Corperations should have been forced to abandon everything in russia leaving millions of russians without jobs and thus less tax money.
@@rossmurray6849 PRChina for the most part complied with the sanctions because they have not much leverage to go against the US led initiative. And frankly, realpolitik wise it's for the best...
Lets not forget that companies have not pulled out of Russia. They have only rebranded selling the same products under a different name. Same for Russian companies in western nations. Same products, same origination, new brand, imported from another country for slower turn around. The only companies that have not done this are the small ones. The big companies were only inconvenienced by such sanctions. So really not too much has changed. Only a little more difficult to make profit.
The first Gulf war is probably the exception to the rule, as not only was it short but some estimates have actually calculated the United States made a profit due to the payments / donations by allies (many doubts about that). Saudia arabia, for example, not only provided money, bases, etc, but provided the fuel. Now, the counter argument is that it really should include both gulf wars, but the second gulf war was a war of (bad) choice, but was also most of cost was an attempt to rebuild and occupy Iraq (badly). The U.S. could have, and probably should have, just gone home after major combat operations ended. However, the united states has demonstrated in gulf war I and 2, plus Afghanistan, was able to sustain such massive military spending, without major disrupting to the domestic economy and mobilizing the economy for "total war". The united states is working through the massive debt that was added to the U.S. overall debt; but, it was able to absorb it at a rate almost no other economy in the world could do. Also as the wotlrld reserve currency, it has the option of making the rest of the world, including the enemy, essentially finance its wars. Thus, why we hear China and Russia make lots of noise, but very little progress, creating their own global reserve currency to replace the dollar. I am not sure what the united states economy "squeal point" is, but, given WWII, it is much larger than any country in the world; Possibly combined.
As Peter Zeihan has recently noted, part of the problem is that a world reserve currency is _convenient,_ and part of it is that nobody who wants a new world reserve currency wants it enough to help anyone else's currency become one.
@@LastBrigadier ...Sadly, in HOI the growth of populations just a simple exponential. Try letting your game run to 2020 and be amazed at one Chinese province having 500 million men and casualties sitting at somewhere in the billions.
**Overview of Russia’s Economic Crisis** And it’s gotten so much worse since I cobbled this together months ago as well as a recent nationwide explosion in crime (e.g., +675% in Kursk Oblast, +200% in Moscow despite its huge police presence. [AND THESE ARE JUST THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS] 1. May 22 vs May 21 Production Crash 1. Cars: -96.7% (3,700 cars) 2. Trucks: -39.3% 3. ICE motors: -57% 4. Pass. train wagons: -59.8% 5. Freight wagons: -51.8% 6. Fiberglass cables: -80.8% 7. Fridges: -58.1% 8. Washing machines: -59.2% 9. AC electric motors: -49.9% 10. Elevators: -34.7% 11. Excavators: -60% 2. 35-40% of work sector, by Russia’s own estimates, are or will soon be unemployed due to private and multinationals pulling out. Their own estimate is 12-15% of their labor force was/is directly employed by foreign biz/capita and indirectly employed 35%-40%. So, a loss of up to 55%, but probably a good deal less cause they will try to absorb as many companies as they can.Moscow’s own Mayor said hundreds-of-thousands of Moscovites are going to loser their job. TOS & Pravda have themselves said 500,000-700,000 top IT engineers have left the country. 3. Russia is running deficits and is unable to finance the deficits because nobody, since they defaulted, can or would want to provide loans (much more on this later) 4. The Zombie Currency: the ruble hasn’t collapsed only because it’s a managed currency. Russia has done an endless number of short term manipulations: a) Froze stock market: only allowed buying stocks. No selling (makes your stock worthless). b) massive penalties on exchanging rubles to any other currencies to outright bans. c) Capping amount of rubbles you can exchange. d) Massive, unsustainable interest rates 5. Fraudulent Market Reporte: Putin has suppressed most of the bad data and cherry picked good reports to try and trick the west into thinking sanctions aren’t working 6. One of its biggest products, arms, is in trouble: Russia is already seeing cratering arms sales since the S-400 and army in general have performed so terribly against US, Turkish and EU products. Furthermore, they can’t keep up with demand to restock their own army let alone without sanctions cutting them off from required items to produce arms. Hell, they can’t even keep on low tech armament production like shells, which is why they had to make a massive purchase from North Korea. It will be years before they can begin to export again in serious numbers and by that time it will likely be too late to recover. 7. Dropping Energy Revenue: It’s a myth a spike in the price of NG and oil has offset the drop in sales volume. This is due to rising production costs with the lost 8. Russia is unable to pivot and sell the extra natural gas to China or India. Only one tiny pipeline to China (10% of what goes into Europe) and their oil production is very inefficient, which means already low margins. Pair that with the fact tankers take 35 days to get to market in China and India and it = not much $. 9. Russia didn’t see the EU agreeing to the 15% gas usage cut. And they certainly didn’t foresee Germany and others moving toward a permanent reduction Russian gas by at least 50%. Germany is way ahead of schedule in LNG terminals that will allow importation from Norway + US. 10. They’ve lost a significant percentage of their best and brightest. They’ve lost access to most of the enterprise technology required to efficient run businesses in every single type of industry. They’re going to fall years behind in R&D in various industrial sectors. And so on.
As for their currency, which now a “managed currency,” the Russian state has employed tactics to delay its crash and temporarily prop the ruble up, but those same measures will result in it and the economy being crushed in the long run including: 1. Froze stock market and then only allowed buying (basically, makes your stock worthless) 2. Putting massive penalties on exchanging rubles to any other currencies 3. Capping the amount of rubbles you can exchange 4. Actions that will ensure foreign investors stay away for decades like seizing foreign owned business accounts and... 5. Seizing billions of dollars worth of planes owned by foreign companies but leased by Aeroflot so it will never operate in the West again without at least a half billion dollars in upfront capital from the gov to buy the planes outright 6. And those planes seized will now be worthless because once their servicing cannot be tracked by the international aviation authority it loses its certification permanently 7. And this is all ignoring the fact that we all know that the sanctions on the energy don’t really start biting until 2023 due to a stepped reduction plan and waiting for existing manufacturing supplies to run out 8. If someone wants the full story on all the other things that will crush its economy, watch this: th-cam.com/video/aEpk_yGjn0E/w-d-xo.html 9. Their debt problems are showing in their inability to ramp up war time production. Many Russian factories refusing to repair damaged military equipment due to lack of payment and sufficient parts **Russian Debt Default** For the first time in more than 100 years, Russia has defaulted on foreign bond debt obligations, It is true they could have paid it off in rubles, but the contract required dollars and they didn’t have enough. Having defaulted = good luck getting funding to: -rebuild your military or any of the energy, armament factories, weapons research infrastructure, etc. that have been blowing up around the country -produce arms exports (even before the war they didn’t have the capital to build their 5th gen fighters w/out advance payment from buyers -maintain let alone upgrade basic and critical infrastructure to stay economically competitive. With no parts coming in, even if they had the money, they couldn’t fix many critical parts of their manufacturing and energy infrastructure, which will make their GDP tank even further. Any loans secured would/will be at crippling prices. Russia is likely going to become a vassal of China as it is already being pulled close into its massive economic orbit. This is just the tip of the economic iceberg for them with all the quasi-nationalization of foreign owned assets they’ve done, which will mean when the war is over no one will want to buy securities in their markets let alone lease stuff like billions in jets to them.
I'm gonna leave a comment over here just to get further notifications of future responses. I wanna see where this discussion will go. Seems interesting.
@@mekingtiger9095 yes its all might be true .. but what is the point? do you want the war to stop or do you want Russia to lose cuase if you want russia to lose russia might last for at least few more years of combat and shelling, thats mean thousands of death in both sides ... so in those years ukraine might become a dead land.ok russia might lose in the end but still no peace in this region for decades to come... for what? russia is a threat with nukes anyway, and you cant invaid it to take away this ability, so what is the goal in the end ? if you cant destroy russias ability to wipe anyone?)) yes its a double sword problem but who cares ... )) those wars painted in the media as good vs evil is a BS ...some countries hugely benefits from this war ... and thats the problem alongside with russia invasion...
This is extremely interesting! I really want to see more information on this! Almost everything in mass-media and TH-cam is generalized and stops after 2-3 points (and is extremely polarized), that I can't trust it. Perun touched on this subject in a few of his videos but I really want more. And I don't think I'm the only one. :)
You should probably bring your Russian economy statistics update to date. I just looked at a few of the numbers that you cited - and near the end of year they are not quite as bad as you cite (so you are blatantly wrong about it getting worse). Currently available data - Jan-Oct 2022 to Jan-Oct 2021: 1) Cars: -65% from around 1,13 to 0,39 mln 2) Trucks: -23% from 148 to 114 hundred thousand 3) Pass. train wagons: -13% from 1257 to 1098 4) Freight wagons: -20% from around 51 thousand to 41 thousand 5) Fridges: -42% from 3,44 to 1,98 mln. So this illustrates the point the video was making - while Russian economy is experiencing significant contraction in many sectors, it's nowhere near completely collapsing at the moment. It's going to be gradual prolonged decline rather than total crash
Operation Desert Storm was very short and successful. Got in kicked ass accomplished the mission of liberating Kuwait and got out. Cleanest "War" of all time. It was even like an Infomercial for our Military Industrial Complex and secured access to middle east Oil fields so it was good for the US economy.
Well that was excellent and I for certain had underestimated the resilience of the Russian war economy - it seems we have a long way to go sadly - thank you for such excellent analysis!!!
This war will not end soon. Whatever your personal estimate of it's length is, it will be longer than that. Game changing exception: If Biden takes the gloves off. IE, he doesn't provide 50 Bradleys; he provides 1000 instead. And 500 Abrams. And 200 F-16s. These sorts of numbers (and more) exist in American boneyards, so this could be done. It would be a large process, involving lots of training and logistics, but it could be done.
This one was made because of the strong community response to a poll recently where people were adamant they wanted a war economics 101 video before any more focused on specific systems or the status of the war. So thanks everyone for giving me the courage to do slightly more theoretical topic. We'll be back with the next in the systems series next week.
Apologies if anyone considers this video a bit of a downer (since I'm once again arguing this war could go for a good while yet) - but the reality is that from an economic standpoint I don't see any reason to think that the Russian economy will become incapable of waging war tomorrow (nor will Ukraine's as long as support continues to flow).
Finally - as everyone is pointing out, short victorious wars where one side has a titanic overmatch against its opponent are reasonably common (I give the prize to the Ango-Zanzibar war) - my comments are mostly targeted at 'peer' conflicts where economic mobilisation becomes a factor.
Perun, I play your videos on a playlist while drifting off to sleep each night. I'm not joking. I love your work and live for each new video.
I always like how @perun apologises for making a topic “too dull”, when in reality there’s many of us refreshing TH-cam on a Sunday night, waiting for the next pose point to drop
Downer or not, realistic predictions are incredibly important. Thanks for yet another bundle of knowledge, sir.
Don’t apologise Perun, no one else is doing it, hence the reason we are here, keep up the good work.
Loved the "You're great NZ, never change".
(But sadly, as the Chrissy holidays are over, and it's technically already Monday .......
I better watch the rest in 18 hours time)
When I think of a war economy, I always think of the phrase "The Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" , except its more like "The market can stay insolvent longer than you can stay rational"
Governments can be insolvent and irrational longer than we can stay solvent and rational and after that we would be a part of the government.
Did not expect you here! Thanks for making me a half decent CIV6 player!
"Anything we can do, we can afford"
I think this quote by Keynes really helps in understanding war economics and economics in general
What Keynes knew about economics you could write on the back of a stamp and still have 90% left to write something else.
The reason why Ukraine fighting Russia is because USA can't afford the lives of american soldiers.
Keynes is all you need to understand economics. Neoliberals don't like him because his goal was not to make a few peopl billionaires but to have an economy which worked for everyone.
Milton Friedman is one of the worst human catastrophes ever.
@@stevewatson6839 [Citation Needed]
Claiming a famous economist doesn't know what he is talking about when you're a nobody on the internet is bad form.
Get knowledgeable and then published, maybe you can disparage someone of stature
@@atomsk01 you can just cite other economists who disagree with Keynes, which isn't hard to find. The economists of the MMT or the Chicago school disagreed with Keynes for example.
One note on the Manhattan Project: the coils of the calutrons were built with silver because all of the copper was spoken for already and used for making wire for machines of war. Because silver was also a fine choice for any conductor it was an available option, therefore they picked that instead of diverting over a dozen thousand tonnes of copper from making wiring for fighters and bombers and other weapons of war, and _all of it_ was eventually returned to the treasury after the machine was dismantled and all of the silver wiring reworked into bars again by the 1970s. I forget the exact figures but they made sure to gather any little shavings and dust to reduce waste. We're talking something like on the order of a percent of a percent loss which, of course, still is a lot of silver in absolute terms when there were so many windings to be built and dismantled... but yes, I fully agree the material input of the project would have been prohibitive for any other wartime economy of the time no matter what they would use for their raw material. We can't exactly hand wave even more and give adversaries of the era some modern gas centrifuges, let alone anything more fancy which barely exists even today. All of that infrastructure had an energy demand on top also...
But... You only need the silver for a U235 bomb, not for a Pu239 bomb.
Just wanted to note that Germany or Japan could have build The Gadget or Fat Man (and yes, I concur, only the US was able to build something like Little Boy then.)..
@@irgendwieanders2121 Producing a Fat Man-style device is still requires you to produce the reactor(s) to produce the Plutonium and be able to produce and develop the components and design of an implosion weapon.
Brass is an alloy of copper. Brass is used to make cartridge cases. Bullets are jacketed in copper, or copper based alloys for armour piercing. Copper is also used as the explosively-formed projectile in shaped charge warheads.
In short, copper has a lot of military uses beyond the manufacture of wiring.
@@Deathmastertx Totally agree.
Still easier.
But not easy en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_heavy_water_sabotage
@@ScienceChap Excellent point, thank you for adding it here. So that makes for even more pressing reasons to not divert any copper for something that had an alternative - even if the alternative was eyewateringly expensive because the material was only "on loan".
The Soviet case in WW2 is a little more nuanced. Almost all modern research and history on the soviet war economy (Isaev, Glanz and many others) paint a picture that indeed even though war production started increasing after industries relocated to the east in 42, the civilian and consumer good sector virtually ceased to exist, especially after the loss of Donbas and Ukraine. Food shortages and famines were spreading in all major cities and even in the army (considering that a lot of the food was "better" supplied to the army than civilians). This was exasperated in the eastern regions where the industries relocated because those areas suddenly had to supply and support massive industries and a flood of millions of evacuated people. Economic collapse certainly doesn't mean military (or even internal) collapse, but it will put everything into a downward spiral. For the soviets, the flood of US and Allied *Food* lend-lease kept the the soviets hanging by a thread from hunger. Raw material lend-lease kept soviet industries working. Non-military goods freed the soviets from needing to spend more effort on them (clothing, radios, automobiles..etc) and much much more. Finally, the Soviet victory in Stalingrad and the Caucuses gave them the breathing space to reform and reorganize. Indeed 1943 would the year of peak total mobilisation, but in 1944 after the frontlines have moved far from the heartland, the soviets already started shifting some industries down a notch.
Despite all of it, by certain measure, the USSR (and successor states) really never, even until today, recovered from the damages and devastation (Human and Material) of the war.
Ah, so that's why people said food is the most important Lend-Lease item to the Soviets in WW2...
Interesting! US has helped both Soviets and Chinese during hard times and yet…. They are both now classed as a military threat or at least a geopolitical threat 🤔
@@Aussie-Mocha ungrateful savages
Sovietic people will strongly disagree with you . Nobody told them they were helped by Americans and Brits with enormous quantities of materials, food and money to resist . They know that they did all by themselves , by their heroism . No matter that their recollection is fuzzy because of vodka feed to them to fight and the NKVD kommisars were behind them to encourage with a gun pointed at their head .
Such an imbecilised nation is hard to find on this Earth .
@@Aussie-Mocha Pearls before swine.
_"Home by Christmas, boys!"_
Well, in defence of that statement, they never explicitly said it would be _this_ Christmas...
Or if they’d be back alive or not
Now why does that sound so familiar... ?
@@sixstringedthing Season 4 of Bkackadder I think, which covers the first world war.
@@suntiger745 WWI was not the first time that opinion had been expressed. Nor was it the last
@@talltroll7092 No, but it is likely where people of today, who are not historians, heard the phrase. ;)
Can’t stress enough how grateful and impressed I am at the existence of this channel since I discovered it at the beginning of the war
While I still read the news from a decent number of sources, being a millennial TH-cam has been my generations television for the last 10 years and out of the hundreds of channels I’ve followed and seen rise and fall, come and go, there is *nothing* that has come close to the level of quality, content, and consistency of those two as this channel has been.
It’s also unanimously clear from the comments that this isn’t my opinion, it’s essentially a peer reviewed fact.
Thank you for everything Perun ❤
This whole talk reminds me of a quote from Keynes during WWII, "Anything we can actually do, we can afford." We've seen this applied in the staggering actions countries undertook in response to the Covid shock, to protect the economy and (sometimes) people. It's no surprise then that when framed in existential terms (whether real or imagined), a nation is capable of performing incredible feats in pursuit of survival. And most essentially but ephemerally, what sustains these frankly gargantuan tasks is the willingness of its people to persist.
Economy is a phantom concept we made up to make the movement of resources and work more efficient. Money becomes irrelevant when a nation is at war. People work until they can, resources are requisitoned as needed.
In a sense it is the only real manifestation of Marx's ideas present in the real world.
If you can convince enough people the only alternative to obedience is oblivion, you cqn get them to do anything.
Frankly the measures taken weren’t that big, they were more big for capitalist economies which have a really hard time sacrificing capital accumulation for the wellbeing of people. The economy takes way more radical actions all the time to oppress people and cause environmental destruction
All that covid nonsense and shutdowns are directly responsible for all the inflation and unemployment now. It turns out that we actually couldn’t afford to shut everything down and impose crazy restrictions on states, cities and populations.
@@kx7500 my dude has no clue. Have you any idea how many people in the third world starved because of the DRASTIC economic measures taken to stop covid in first world countries?
Gotta get my Aussie power point fix. I always feel smarter and more well informed after every video.
I’m 33 right now, always had a major interest in history science and military topics. I dropped out an got my GED at 16 so I could work. If you told 16yo me that I’d be enthusiastically watching hour long videos on economics, even if they had a military/history angle I would have not so politely told you a painful place you could insert quite a few and not so small items inside yourself. Presentation is everything.
Thank you very much for this, absolutely a must watch for any would-be dictators.
Commenting for the algorithm (nothing interesting to add). Great video, Perun.
Next topic I think would be interesting would be the politics and motivations of different nations. A video could be made examining the internal united states politics, support and opposition to aid to Ukraine and Europe/NATO as well as all other involved nations. It is a topic that could easily get messy, but I think it can be logically presented off by you.
TLDR
The West has more guts and resources than Russia
All those new tanks and trained soldiers Ukraine now has means more dead Russians
Russia is getting weaker while Ukraine has gotten stronger
This would be a very messy video indeed as it comes down to individuals and factions, not even political parties. For example, in the US, the vast majority of the Republicans are for continued aid, with some wanting Biden to give even more than he has, although a sizeable minority, with a lot of overlap with the anti-McCarthy folks, are against such. The Democrats, even the relatively dove factions (which Biden is also part of), have universally been in favor of aid to Ukraine, with, again, some wanting Biden to send more.
And that's just the US. Feelings in other countries such as Germany are equally complicated.
At least for now, the vast majorly in most countries are still in favor. But there have been limits, and there's no guarantee such feelings will remain forever, especially with this being a longer than many people thought or hoped.
@@Geotpf I think this topic is important, I believe Perun has mentioned it a few times in some videos, but the political will to continue is a very complicated subject in all the involved countries. From Russia to the US and everything in between, the will to continue will be strained and could make or break things for Ukraine.
This helped to answer an important question for me: why is there always -- always -- money for war (or tax cuts for the wealthy) but rarely enough money for food for the hungry, healthcare for the sick or disabled, housing for the homeless, education for the young, etc. Thank you for your exhaustive research and explanation.
Because capitalists in power are okay with that:b
8:02 - Remember kids, it's not the size that counts, but how you use it!
i've wondered if the oligarchs that fell from windows recently changed their wills too... 🙂
"War economy, noun: A model of economics which is temporarily adopted by a country whose need for survival becomes a greater priority, than maintaining the illusion that Milton Friedman was not a raving psychopath."
50 US nuclear aircraft carriers!? Keep talking dirty to me.
If Russia don't have natural resources, it will not last long. Unfortunately, Russia have natural resources and many countries like Sri Lanka, China and India need these resources. This means it is unlikely it will collapse.
It doesn't need to collapse. It just needs to feel the pinch enough that it becomes politically untenable to maintain its war footing.
Remember, it picked this fight, and it can end it at any time by just withdrawing its troops. The fact that they can always just opt out of conflict means they must continuously justify the increased expense of war + the increased harm to their economy + the increased body count. And that will only get harder over time.
Another fine presentation. Thank you.
Ukraine literally ranks higher than russia economically, not currently but in their previous form. Just saying, russia is a joke
They don't, Russia has a gdp of 1.4t iirc and ukraine has a gdp of 155b. That's a very large difference
Russia’s GDP is about the sane as Australia’s- with 7 times the population.
Canada ranks higher than Russia economically. Who cares. Russia would crush Canada head to head. Except Canada would get American help... the only thing that's keeping Ukraine in its losing game.
U re wrong. Ukraine gdp sucks ass compared to russia. Also u forgot to mention that russia gdp relies heavily on oil and gas exports.
Netflix is the essential item!
Good espose over economics. Thanks
Thank you!
The new weapons package should easily push 🇺🇦 over the top when its 25k+ get back from training across 🇧🇬, 🇩🇪, 🇬🇧, 🇪🇸 & 🇫🇷 . People are just focusing on the M2s + Euro IFVs, but there is SO MUCH MORE in the list. Dozens more self-propelled howitzers, 100,000+ more shells, including thousands of precisions rounds which are each equivalent in value to about 25 dumb rounds, hundreds more M113s, HMMWVs, MRAPS, etc., etc. The M2 Bradley, just like a fighter jet, can destroy enemy tanks at BVR before the enemy even knows you’re there.
Yep, though arguably Ukraine only enjoys the 2023 window of opportunity to take advantage of those new offensive weapons, before the current U.S. administration, their main ally and coalition driver. becomes hamstrung by the recent debacle in Congress that's poised to strengthen the 'Murikin Right Wing, and Pootin!
The most exciting moment of this week: another 1 hour power point presentation
Thank you Perun, good topic and very good analysis, your video make us smarter.
The statement that never stops being true
Yay Perun!!!
If you told 15 year old me that one day you will sit and listen to an Australian for an hour analyzing the numbers of war i would call bullshit but here we are.
Rel
@@heinzaballoo3278 This won't last for long, unfortunately.
still in process of watching so dunno if you will touch on it later on but dissolution of Soviet Union was HARD on Ukraine. Many industries worked only as a unit. In my relatively small city there were two HUGE factories, one making wires and one for concrete. A large part of population of the city worked there but both of them closed for years in the 90s bc the absolutely unreal amount of wires made sense only when they were supplying it to factories all over the Union, same with concrete, Ukraine had no need for either in those capacities. And situations like that were all over the country. People didn't receive any wages or support from the government for long periods of time (like 7 months of no wages was very common). Yet most survived. Many had family in the villages and could grow food. People were rising chickens on balconies in Kyiv. When I was in school in the 90s we had routine electricity shutdowns in the evenings as well, economy was going through it. We still remember it. And it's hard to explain how fast everyone adapts. A few days after russians started bombing powerplants and most of Kyiv had no electricity local coffeeshop across the road from me already had a diesel generator and was serving cappuccinos. We are very resilient. =D
Never giveup Poland stands with you guys
:D
We should have done more. The An-70 would have been a damned sight cheaper than Airbus re-inventing the wheel for instance. I don't like how the West played the East after the Soviet Union dissolved one bit. Beware we are taking you for a ride right now; but Slava Ukriani! anywho.
Thank you for your sharing
People in general are resilient, the point, as Perun implies, is that we don't have to be. That being said, for the post war rebuild l, Ukr is especially gifted, I imagine all our lovely Ukrainian workers here in Cz are going to find their skills cery useful in making their country truly great. I do hope in 2030,russians will look on ukr with complete envy, as ru will be even shittier than it is now, and ukr will be like central European countries :)
Small nitpick on the use of silver in the Calutrons: The engineers and scientist specified copper, but that was in very short supply. However, silver is the next best thing and the treasury had quite a lot of it. So they used that to replace copper.
This is not just an example of somewhat outrageous demands being met by the government, but how urgent wartime needs can be met with creative allocation of resources - even if it would seem insane by peacetime standards. Personally, I think this is an even more impressive statement how wartime economies differ from peacetime, but I think your point came across nevertheless.
Could have used gold.....
@@JohnSmith-yv6eq Not likely, silver is actually a better electrical conductor than gold or even copper. So why se something more expensive that is actually worse, when you have the other stuff.
Technically he wasn't wrong, he just left out the bit about not having 14700 tons of copper available, the important bit was that they used that amount of silver to do the job, because the government made it happen due to the war.
The correct answer is that silver is a better conductor. That 14.7 tons of Silver was used as a huge buss bar to conduct electricity. When the Army folks contacted Treasury and told them that they needed 14.7 tons of Silver the person at the Treasury department told the Army person "Sir, we measure silver in ounces, not tons" The Army got the Silver. Not sure what happened to all that Silver. And the engineers had specified Silver for the project, not copper.
@@trolland Pretty sure all of the silver was return, or at least 99% of it, since it was technically only loaned afaik. There is a section in Rhodes "making of the atomic bomb" describing the whole situation, apparently the security measures were quite strict even by Manhattan project standards.
"Sustainable spending is for defeatists, and we are in the business of victory." That sounds like a good t-shirt line.
I would like to see that expanded since the costs of unsustainable war spending did seem to be largely skipped over in this. There have been a variety of countries that resorted to unsustainable war spending, won and then faced rebellions or revolutions several years down the line because of the unsustainable spending. Regardless of how the rest of the war goes I think Russia will be in a lot more trouble in 2031 than they were in 2021.
@@ethank5059 Point taken. There is now a non-zero chance that Russia won't even exist as a united state in 2031. Maybe 5% or so, but the fact that the percentage even _exists_ is an amazing outcome of this "two week Special Military Operation".
@@ethank5059
Sadly, Russia in 2031 will depend on a lot more than the war.
It's not inconceivable that Europe will see a massive turn to the right, if the EU's entire economic model gets undermined.
(which could happen since Germany is sorta the main driver, and it was only price competitive due to cheap Russian gas - and even if it were to get enough LNP by 2031, the price will probably be a lot higher)
Also, Trump or a Trump-like person might beat Biden in 2024, or win in 2028.
If either or both of those happen, it would mean a _massive_ shift for the outlook of Russia's future.
I guess we'll see how history will twist and turn until 2031...
I love the smell of deficit spending in the morning. Smells like victory.
@@grmpEqweer Smells like Keynesian Stupid you mean! 😏
B-b-but hoi4 says war economy reduces consumer goods
Technically that's simulating rationing.
There is no way Mappies would lie to us, right?
The next thing you're gonna tell me is that soldiers, in fact, aren't the size of provinces. That's just western propaganda.
DON’T RUIN MAPPIES!!
Thats the will to endure part at 26:50
yeah, you make less of your countries industry sit devoted to consumer goods during a war economy . hoi4 is making sense
The US rationed gas so tightly, not due to a direct shortage of Petroleum (they could have spared more), rather it was tied to (VERY) scarce and almost impossible to get for a civilian rubber (tires), which wore out fairly quickly. You were allowed a set for your car, any others got sucked up for government rationing. There's a reason that a lot of wartime cartoons treat whitewalls as virtual fetish objects. BTW bubble-gum was equally impossible to find.
Civilian rubber also exist in durable Edition but those one are for rent only for $$.
One thing that I think we forget in these discussions is that "You can't do X!" is almost invariably followed by "... unless you're willing to let Y happen". For example, you can't live in a modern home through a Ukrainian winter without electricity... unless you're willing to let a bunch of people freeze to death. And often, a lot of innocent people dying is the cost, and that's why people find the idea so inconceivable in normal circumstances.
But war isn't "normal times". People know that innocents will die - they hate it, but they'd hate capitulating to those invading bastards even more. So a lot of the way an economy survives is just "Yeah, grandma might freeze to death. Sorry for your loss. Now where are we on shell production?" It sounds horrid, because it is horrid, but that's how war works. It sucks, but for as long as you think losing will be even worse, you'll keep fighting anyway.
It's easy to forget that in a peaceful society. "How can they endure that? The suffering is immense!" - yeah, you're right, it is immense. But we as humans are hardy sons of bitches when we need to be. Sometimes, all you can do is suffer, let the survivors mourn the fallen, and push on hoping for victory despite the tragedies.
My takeaway from this video is pretty much: War is very expensive, but also really affordable/cheap depending of how much comfort your population is willing to sacrifice. Technically you only need food and a bit of warmth to survive.
Well said.
@@etuanno hardly. Have you forgotten that you can't manufacture anything without electricity and resources. How can you repair roads and bridges airport runways water supply systems Transportation networks as well as vehicles without parts and raw materials? It is far more complicated than you make it seem. Ukraine would already be done without the massive support of all the countries involved. Russia had massive stockpiles of everything before they started the war. Also Russia is not experiencing much direct destruction due to the war.
@briandbeaudin9166 Some of it can be handled the old-fashioned ways, some can be papered over, and some just doesn't happen.
But that returns us to my original comment - if you can't keep your roads working without widgets, and enemy action destroys your widget supply, then you get to go to war without roads. The costs are immense, but sometimes people will pay those costs to keep fighting.
@@briandbeaudin9166 Not true.
The problem with a lack of resources is a inability to conduct a formal war, instead you would have guerilla warfare with improvised IED's, ambush tactics. Pretty much what happened in Iraq.
Warfare is just validated killing, and people get very creative when trying to kill each other.
What I love most about Perun's presentation is how he is able to provide a layman's example to convince us of a complex argument that most people can't do. I bet he can explain the concept Of swarm drones with a grocery store logistics example. Of all the things he is good at he sure is a great story teller.
I never would have guessed it, but military logistics is fun.
He does tick most of the boxes in that talk Patrick Winston gave in 2018 on how to speak or how to present. Perun educates and (as you mentioned) tells a story easy to follow and interesting to listen to.
@@Com18Alpha yep because explanation how something works does not tie it all together.
you need to do it practically and if thats not possible a "terotical example"
@@Com18Alpha
Is this what you were referring to, or did I miss out on something else? :)
th-cam.com/video/Unzc731iCUY/w-d-xo.html
The Ministry of Victory
Lol 😆
"As the new director of the Department of Victory, I am confident our enemy's economy will collapse any day now."
"Sir! There's been a massive shift in consumer demand in our enemy's economy!."
"They've stopped buying cars?"
"No, they've started buying Victory!"
I'd like to buy some victory. How much is it to buy victory? Is it a Buck-o-five?
Pretty much sums it up.
Are you sure it isn't Ministry of Victory?
BABE PUT ON THE POPCORN! PERUN JUST DROPPED AN HOUR SLIDESHOW ABOUT WAR ECONOMICS! 🔥🔥🔥
Hon it's 2am, what are you talking about? im sleeping.
Ok ill watch it alone, Perun comes first
"...with crypto investments being obviously the option we take up _after_ we've considered absolute surrender". Oh, very good!
As long as the people are willing, a nation will fight.
As long as the leaders* You need to have a very dissident population if you can't make them go to the front, Now im not saying they will be happy and your soldiers would probably defect but peoples will have no real say in this.
@@huntergatherer7796 Did you watch the video
The nation is willing but the people is spongy and squishy
Ukraine: SNU SNU
@@huntergatherer7796 reeeeeeeeee
This requires a picking apart of the 'nation' and the 'nation state'.
You could say the people were willing during the Soviet occupation during the cold war, resistance movement etc. But that's not the same as the nation applying taxation income to nationalised heavy industry.
Time for our weekly dose of numbers and logistics people!
Best part of any Sunday. :-)
It is not estimated that Paraguay lost the majority of its male population, it is estimated they lost the vast majority of it. The last 2 battles where fought almost entirely by child sodiers.
Paraguay as an entity almost ceased to exist if memory serves.
Estimate is around 70%, and the battle you mention was a point where the army was just a group of around 300 people most not even soldiers following Solano Lopez until the end
SHIT! That is wow.
@@Giganfan2k1 one of the worst military fuckups ever
@@joshdavis5991 it wasn't, the country, and larger south america didn't recover till like the 1950s
"A government that would be turfed out if there was systemic losses of electricity during peacetime"
*Cries in South African"
Lebanon has joined the chat
Ja, Boet...
And Californian
@@Marinealver I don't know how often there are power outages in California, but given that the Canadians can just open the hydro tap and pump down more electricity, I promise you California does not have the same level of problem as the South Africans. That doesn't mean that they don't moan more, though.
@@Marinealver Nope. We cut off power only for storms and fires for safety reasons. We talk about the possibility of rolling blackouts. There was an artificially generated energy crisis around 2000-2001. Summers are now well-managed; last summer, we had 15% from solar during peak demand hours.
Me taking a class that affects my career: “ugh who cares about this”
Me watching an hour long video about war time economies: “that’s some good shit”
I love the note about Y12 needing 14K tons of silver. When they started construction, Colonel Nichols (in charge of procurement) asked Usec of Treasury Daniel Bell for silver. The conversation went like this:
Bell : 'What for?'
Nichols: 'Classified, sir'
Bell: 'Well, how much silver?'
Nichols: 'Six thousand tons, sir.'
(Short pause)
Bell: 'Son, you may think of silver in tons, but the US treasury will always think of it in Troy ounces."
The US had 47,000 tons of silver stockpiled and ended up handing over 14,000 tons to the project. When the war was over, they got all but 4.9 tons - 0.35 of 1 percent - back.
This clarifies my guess that this noble metal was ‘borrowed ‘, and recycled back to ‘peace time storage mode’ after the war. Thank you :)🎉
That 1% was so radioactive that it was placed in an abandoned gold mine in the New Mexico desert and partially back-filled. My father helped stash the silver and contracted cancer due to exposure to the radioactivity. On his deathbed he drew me a map of the mine's location. The 4.9 tons of silver is no longer radioactive and is there for the taking. However, I don't have the financial resources to initiate such a project on my own, so I'm looking for financial backers. If I can find ten investors willing to invest $50,000 each we can retrieve that silver and we'll become fabulously wealthy!
@@jiyushugi1085 lmao
@@jiyushugi1085 do you take Visa?
Not mine, obviously.
Definitely a much better investment than crypto!
Seizing oligarch money is a time honored tradition, too.
When the Duke of Alba tried to subdue the rebellious Netherlands, he seized the money located at the Fugger Faktorei in Antwerp to pay his troops, worth billions in today's terms.
Unlike most people in such a situation, the Fugger actually got their money back after a few years, as they threatened to stop supplying the Spanish King with the mercury he needed to get the silver out of its South American ores...
Lebanon has been doing this for a few years (encountered the issue at work last month). Official ForEx rate is ~1500 = USD$1; the internal bank rate is ~40,000 = USD$1. If you have a bank account in Lebanon, you are FUBAR.
first the money and then the dirt
Lucky bastards, the canton of Bern never got its treasury back from Napoleon he stole from us in 1798... The Canton of Bern was the mightiest city state north of the Alps before he came.
A dude once calculated with a very conservative interest plan, it would be worth roughly 600 billion Swiss Franks now. Or 100 years worth of taxes of the Canton of Bern with the current spending. We got so rich because we sold a fuckton of mercenaries to pretty much everybody since the 15th century.
@@etuanno well, yeah, but they arguably were the enemy for Napoleon.
The Fugger were the most important financiers of both the Austrian and, to a lesser degree, the Spanish Habsburg. Alba was kinda freelancing there, like Wagner today in UKR...
War is usually a pretty good distributor of wealth funnily enough. When every man is reduced to his base utility "has money" is usually the least of the quality searched. In France we had SO much social advancement AFTER WW2 !
Well i says usually as the US demonstrated that as long as you keep war foreign enough it's a wonderfull machine of profit.
As a resident rod the Detroit area, the history of converting the auto plants over to war production is a big thing here. Everyone has a story about how their (great) grandparents went off to fight or worked in the factories. Many of the old timers that are still a round take pride in the fact the the plant they worked at produced this or that for the war effort.
Packard, that famously built the American version of the Rolls Royce Merlin, is the poster child for firms that went down because they had a difficult time converting back to peacetime production.
How is Detroit doing today? Have you noticed factories coming back online? I keep hearing how Detroit is "getting better", but what has that entailed exactly so far?
Isn't it a derelict indusrial waste-land two thirds of the people have buggered off from?
@@Anthony-jo7up detroit turning into fallout irl was not really directly related to the war effort, although it was influenced by it. Well...this part is subjective as its a complex issue.
regardless, the bit about detroit getting better is simply that it can only crash and burn for so long before people either entirely abandon it, or some things get fixed eventually. Simple statistics overall, crime rates, infrastructure, business investments, etc are improving although there is still quite a bit more that can be done.
by improving i mean 1970s vs today. Past decade the trend is harder to see, but you can still make out a vague trend of things getting better.
@@nanonano2595 i suppose it wont get better until stealing water heaters isnt a thing anymore in detroit. ripping out copper wires i expected, but god damn, the whole water heater tank.
War equipments back then were much more simpler than they are now. I don't think you can just convert auto factory to war equipments factory just like that nowadays.
"A Short Victorious War" is one of my favorite sci-fi stories, since that book kicks off a war that lasts for over a dozen books and something like 30 years. All because the antagonists thought they could take out the protagonist nation with a rapid surprise attack (which turned out to be neither rapid nor a surprise).
As much as David Weber had gone off rails in his later books (consequence of a lack of editors to tell him no), Honor Harrington is still a fun read.
On the other hand, one of the best comments I saw about "short victorious wars" was this. "If your officers promise that you will be back home by Christmas, just shoot them. And then go and shoot the politicians who are telling the same. You'd have a higher chance of actually being home by Christmas that way."
Honor Harrington?
@@jtho8937 Yes.
@@Norbrookc Hooray. Don't see many other fellow fans around.
@@jtho8937
Here's one more fan....
During WWII, while we were occupied by Germany, the Norwegian National Bank issued so-called "nødsedler" - literal translation, emergency notes. Instead of producing 1 and 2 kroner coins, they made cheap paper notes with the same value. These bank notes soon acquired colloquial nicknames. The 1 kroner note was called an "usling" (scoundrel), and the 2 kroner note was called a Quisling. As you can see, you needed two scoundrels to have one Quisling.
Ah Quisling, cemented in history as a euphemism for cowardice and treachery…
Yeah, I'm not sure a lot of people are going to know what that means without it being explained.
@@yurisonovab3892 'Quisling' as a generic term for traitor is still fairly well known; Quisling himself was notorious as the Norwegian head of Nazi-controlled Norway.
Great info.
@@yurisonovab3892 If you don't know who Quisling was and what the name has become internationally synonymous with, I can't help you.
This was very enlightening. I've wondered for a long time how a war economy actually works, and how it differs from a peacetime economy. Thanks a lot for this significant piece of free education.
Most western governments are doing most of this to one degree or another. It's less "wartime economics" and more "short term economic thinking"
@@lokenontherange Uh no. It's a war economy. These are distinctly different things, you can't just pick one feature and say "oh look they same!!1"
@tesom The US dollar is at its best right now, idk what you're on about. We're doing fine.
@@lokenontherange that’s called capitalism
@@amazin7006 that doesn’t mean an economy is doing well
41:13 As a Hungarian I am proud that Hungary holds the world record for inflation. 100trillion note? Please we had 100million billion notes at one point. that is 6 orders of magnitude higher then what Zimbabwe had.
Careful -- billion, trillion and above can mean two different things. In the US, a billion = 1000 million, most of the rest of the world that is a milliard and a billion = 1,000,000 x a million, 3 orders of magnitude higher. For trillions the discrepancy is doubled. I actually held a 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollar note in my hand, and it was $100,000,000,000,000 -- i.e. "trillion" in the US sense, not $100,000,000,000,000,000,000 -- i.e. trillion in the European sense.
@@rabbi120348 Anyway, Zimbabwe had a note with 10¹⁴, Hungary had 10²⁰
Well your country ain't called "Satiated"
AMIRITE
@@johnsmith-ir1ne
(Sad trombone)
Hungary uses long notation. It goes million milliard billion etc.
Ah my weekly dose of Perun Insights, right on time.
It's absolutely staggering how much knowledge Perun has about these subjects & is able to concisely share it all with us.
He's a super secret super duper agent so it's not thaaat surprising
man reads a lot. What can you say?
Has Perun mentioned his actual job? I believe he eluded to being in the field professionally in the past?
@@mcbrite I believe he's said that he has never worn a uniform. There is a good possibility that he works in a defense related field as a civilian based on the amount of knowledge he has on military and economic matters.
Something to be careful of with people like this is in an organization someone like perun would provide some facts and figures to someone who would then compare to other facts and figures and make a decision. Here Perun is presenting the facts and figures to himself and drawing his own conclusion. Nothing against him, he does a good job but the underlying motivation is often skewed and makes some big mistakes with his fundamentals (i.e he will build a gorgeous mansion but use jelly in half the foundations) So worth listening to, but be careful assuming any conclusions are as good as fact.
This was all summed up by the father of capitalism, Adam Smith, who said, "there is a great deal of ruin in a nation"".
It's a quote I mentally go back to in a lot of contexts. It means a lot of things all at once, but primarily that there is a lot that can be ruined, but there is a lot that would need to be ruined in order for a nation to actually "collapse". The man who wrote "The Wealth of Nations" understood how much actual stuff there is to a country, and appreciated how much effort would be necessary to take it down.
It always feels like a lifetime before I get my next Perun fix...then he releases the 43rd Ukraine-Russia War analysis video on a schedule rivaled only by that of an atomic clock.
Next week's Video. How atomic clocks have saved country XXXXXX's economy.
I want say this on the chance that you see this, I love these economic videos, as it's using a very practical real-world case to explain the principles and theory of wartime economics.
This is interesting, and I love these videos. Thank you for making so much quality content over the last year, and I hope to see more of these educational videos in the year to come.
Thank you Perun.
The little known Anglo-Zanzibar War of 1896 is generally considered to be the shortest war in history, lasting for a grand total of 38 minutes.
God damn. That makes the defense of Denmark against Nazi invasion look downright heroic.
@@ethank5059 At least the Danes fought back. The Anglo-Zanzibar war is entirely lopsided as the British just shelled the heck out of the Zanzibar sultanate from a distance behind the safety of a natural defensive barrier called "the sea". The Sultan's soldiers couldn't even fire back as their artillery pieces were the very first things to be targeted and destroyed...
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131
How does one even surrender after 38 minutes if your enemy is shelling you from the ocean??
@@MrNicoJac Raise a white flag from the tallest pole you can muster and hope the naval vessels have some people with telescopes scanning your blasted-out coastline.
@@ethank5059 And some of the Danish units kept the fight going many hours past the government surrender till they run out of ammo, merely since no one told them the war was over. Their German counterparts didn't think of it, and they cut the phone lines, so no one else could. Pretty heroic considering how outmatched they were in any case.
As others have pointed out, the original design specified copper but copper was a critical material and diverted to electrics and electronics in vehicles, ships and aircraft. So the Manhattan Project was lent the silver from the Treasury. Silver has somewhat better characteristics (lower electrical resistance and better heat conductivity) so using it actually made the MP processes more efficient.
'It is the economy, stupid!' - Szun Tsu after being confronted by the submarine and satellite budget.
Economic dererminism can on occasion also be a pitfall for analysts. Bigger war economy doesn't always automatically win.
"Have you tried turning it off and on again?" Joan of Arc to Sun Tzu when they met at the battle of Gettysburg, Art of War.
@@herptekYeah, the intangibles like willingness to fight is incredibly hard to quantify yet is incredibly valuable in war times.
Sun Tzu addresses this point directly:
"Sun Tzu said: In the operations of war, where there are in the field a thousand swift chariots, as many heavy chariots, and a hundred thousand mail-clad soldiers, with provisions enough to carry them a thousand LI, the expenditure at home and at the front, including entertainment of guests, small items such as glue and paint, and sums spent on chariots and armor, will reach the total of a thousand ounces of silver per day. Such is the cost of raising an army of 100,000 men."
"Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.
Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent,
other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue."
"If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” - Sun Tzu
"Kyiv was just a feint! Withdrawing from Snake Island was a good-will gesture! Ukraine military is dead, we're defeating the dregs of NATO now!" - Vranyo
Not gonna lie Perun, but I don’t think you’re doing yourself any favours when the section called “opening words” has to be followed by the be section “what am I talking about” 😂😅
While both sections serve their own purpose - I very much take your point.
It's a sign of the times we live in that I watch an hour long presentation about economics and enjoy every second of it. Thank you so much for your hard work!
Don't underestimate the Kiwis. They can easily turn tractors into Bob semple Tanks.
yeah but just taking the sheet metal of your roof and slapping it on the side of a tractor doesn't make it a good tank.
@@patrickstar5136 the Story is about willingness to fight with whatever you got and only an anecdote of History. But yeah, you can also just say destroy it :D
Oh, is that the Killdozer guy? Killdozer was honestly a pretty awesome story, especially since he didn't actually kill anyone except possibly himself. There's conflicting accounts as to whether the police managed to kill him in one of their attempted raids on the Killdozer or he killed himself. But ultimately he only did property damage to a bunch of dickwads in the town that had left him finically ruined and he wasn't going to be able to beat in court (since he had no money). So he modified his tractor/bulldozer farming equipment thing into a tank.
@@Lusa_Iceheart No. Totally different Story.
@@Parvian93 Different story yes but still basically the same tank only the bob semple was built on a worse bulldozer and had 6 bren guns.
"at the same time one australian commentator said the war could go on for a while". gosh, I wonder who that guy could be 😂
It is impressive how Finnish economy survived wars with Soviet Union. It wasn't pretty, my relatives got to enjoy things like famine, but it did survive.
Yeah, my family lived thro the Holodomor, we're familiar with Moscow-induced famine too. Leave it to the sadistic russians to weaponize famine as a means of genocide. They've been disgustingly brutal to everyone around them for centuries, the list of atrocities is really just mind-boggling.
@@Lusa_Iceheart But THIS is the reason why Ukraine is clearly so strong and motivated. This is why some Eastern European countries have given strong support. This is why whole Europe should give support!
@@anomymouse5043 You're preaching to the choir! Eastern Europe knows what it's like under Moscows boot, which is why we're never going to submit again. I'm glad I can help influence people here in America and help keep support for my family's original homeland. I still have family there too, in the trenches. Since I can't fight myself or help in a direct manner, I help with spreading information and changing opinions where I can here in the US.
I've found that most of my fellow Americans support Ukraine, and despite party-line talking points it really only boils down to 'how much support' (ie fear of boots on the ground and another Afghanistan) and even the most skeptical are just concerned the money is being stolen before it gets to where it needs to go. If our politicians could do a better job sorting out those concerns and clarifying things better it's a no-brainer what US policy should be. But unfortunately it's too easy for the two-party system to use Ukraine as yet another divided issue. If one side is for the other has to be against even if there really isn't a rational reason for it. Both sides do this shit and it's really annoying to the average American. Perun and most non-Americans I've found have a tendency to have a view into American politics that's distorted b/c our news programs are all on this same sort of divide. There's no such thing as non-partisan news anymore in America, that business model doesn't work when clickbait and rage inducing articles are what sells news media. So from the outside Americans seem a LOT more divided on issues and a lot more radicalized, but ultimately it's just a fiction that sells more ad slots and rakes in more subscriptions to pay-per-view media like the New York Times or Wall St Journal. Talk to people on the street, be it in an urban city or a rural town, most Americans agree putin is a shitbag and they want Ukraine to win. They'd like to avoid nukes coming out and the vast majority would like to avoid US troops being sent to fight (everyone is sick of the Middle east shit) but money and weapons are easy to supply. The money we've sent so far has barely been a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the trillions of dollars spent over the last year, the money printer is already going brrr, everyone sees the inflation, everyone knows we're ALREADY in a recession but there's a level of satisfaction in finally smashing the Soviets in a conventional fight. And we get to do it without actually being in the war. It's like dancing on the grave the US's longtime enemy, there's a catharsis in that people like too much and is easily worth the what amounts to the change we've been sending to Ukraine. That's a better picture of how Americans feel about the situation, better than what you'll get from CNN or Fox or any of the clickbait crap that parades around as journalism.
A grandparent looked at his kid playing in the summer, some time after the war, and said coldly: "You're not going to rebuild this country messing around like that." (in Finnish: Tuolla touhulla ei kyllä tätä maata jälleenrakenneta.)
@@Lusa_Iceheart First: I am very sorry if the comment was taken as preaching. I want to salute brave Eastern European countries (namely Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) for their support and Ukraine for fighting for the whole Europe.
Second, I want to salute you for spreading the Ukraine information in the US.
Third, I want to thank you for giving more rational picture of American people. Fight the division! I think the unpleasant people can find division as a tool for their personal agenda. And Russia and China naturally.
Fourth, I have long hoped that Europe and USA would send expert military people to Ukraine. What if we could send experts, say to training, maintenance, logistics and to information gathering to Ukraine. Notice that this would NOT be Middle-East. The Ukrainians would greet these people with open arms. Furthermore, the European militaries would collect in this process knowledge on how to battle Russia.
It hurts my head to think of the effort required to properly research, distill, organize, and produce something like this. Glad I’m retired from such doings, and appreciate it all the more from the easy chair. Thank you.
An observation and a question.
One of the things that helped the US convert to a war economy so quickly was a system of "educational contracts" started in the late 1930s. The Army would give a non-military manufacturer--for example, a company that made sewing machines or jukeboxes--a contract for a small quantity of military equipment--say, maybe, 1,000 .45 caliber pistols. The Army would pay the retail price of the pistols plus the full cost of tooling and setting up the production line. The manufacturer would thereby learn how to mass produce .45s without losing money on a limited production run of an unfamiliar product. In return, the manufacturer would be required to keep the tooling and production equipment in storage so that, when war broke out, it could quickly convert from civilian goods to war production.
How much of an effect does the pervasive presence of "vranyo" have on the Russian war economy? I would think it would be harder to make all the necessary adjustments and reallocations of resources if the decision-makers can't be confident that the information they have reflects the actual reality of the economy.
Turning finance bros into infantry is a pretty good idea.
Yub, fully agree, it's s bloody great idea.
At least then they'll be doing something for society for once, instead of mooching off everyone's hard work or destroying it by shorting.
And trying to deregulate everything, but whining for regulation as soon as someone uses their own tactics against them.
Gamestop was a thing of beauty!
However, I fear such a regiment or division would need an inordinate ammount of Commissars of the more conservstive bent, as Ciaphas Cain would put it....
Finance bros are very good at constructing and rationalizing falsehoods that may seem reasonable in order to win over investors and superiors.
In other words they possess the perfect qualities for Russian Mobilization.
Let's start with the cryptobros first.
Finance bros are somewhat necessary to run the machine. The altcoin people most certainly aren't.
Good if all you want is to thin the herd.
I'm not saying don't do it. Just have a backup plan to deal with the enemy.
@@sixstringedthing No, maybe we need some of the people that run the local bank, maybe the manager that runs it.
Anything above is too rotten.
Especially the whole Investment 0banking sector as is now we don't need.
I'm not saying those people aren't skilled, but are they significantly better than others and can we trust them?
Change my mind.
Yes, I’ve been waiting for my Sunday evening economics
My father, who was managing a Citroen factory back in France, toll me that in the safe's factory were plans to switch production from civilian vehicles to military vehicles in case of war. This was in the 70's.
Thanks for an interesting snippet of Cold War history! Lots of things I took for granted as a child, like the "Protect and Survive" leaflets in the event of a nuclear exchange, are forgotten by the millennials.
@@paulsyms2142
I wonder why
5:30 The Faklands was a short war from one perspective but not another. For the UK it was short 2.5 months... for Argentina it was long, because they thought there wouldn't be a war.
12:11 I would extend on that and say the whole cliché about German efficiency is a myth. Germany is organized. Everything is done a certain way and works brilliantly when it everything is done and works as intended. But if you try to change parameters, oh boy, that's gonna be difficult.
You could argue the Prussian culture was efficient, but that didn't necessarily extend to all of Germany as a great deal of Germans resented the stuffy Prussians.
@@Edax_Royeaux Not really. The Prussians aren't known to be flexible outside of the military. True, they encourage military officers to exercise unit initiative to fulfill a mission objective, they aren't as efficient outside that as Prussian society is very much stratified. No general staff officer or high-level government there came from any other class than the Junkers and the Junkers is the most socially-backward social class in Germany at the time...
The fact the Nazis managed to UNDERPRODUCE ammo compared to Imperial Germany is a testament to such inconpetence...
This is why Southwest Airlines melted down -- they had a beautifully, maximally efficient scheduling system, when there were no problems. One major storm and all of a sudden a few cancelations mess up their entire downlines, and now no crews are where they need to be, there are more cancelations, and the whole thing flops.
@@rabbi120348 Correct assessment. (Economic) efficiency means no redundancy and no safety margin.
Perun, thanks again for your fine work. This one reminds me of you video some 8 months ago on “who wins a war of attrition.” You concluded, quite accurately, that the West would not run out of weapons to supply Ukraine and that the goal for the West “is political as much as military.” What is much clearer now, is that Ukraine’s military is much larger, and better equipped and trained, than the start of the war. While likely more poorly equipped and certainly more poorly trained, Russia probably has more “boots on the ground” than the start of the war. General Ben Hodges view is that victory for Ukraine is “inevitable” but no one really knows how long it will take. It seems to me that the issue for the West remains “political as much as military.” Could you perhaps address the political issues. Will the West grow tired too soon as that appears to be the current Russian hope and strategy?
.
I suspect that that's outside Perun's wheelhouse. National will and determination is much more of a political topic and doesn't really break down into publicly sourced numbers to display and play with.
US can hack Russian oligarchs and economy to steal their money! Give some of the stolen wealth to Ukraine!!!
Perun's professional background is in economics. Put simply, he knows a lot more about that than he does of politics. Besides, if you think economic forecasts are unreliable wait until you have a look at political forecasts ...
When they needed the coils for the calutron solenoids to produce fissile material they asked for thousands of tonnes of copper. The request was balked at because copper was a critical war resource for brass shell casings and the like. However it was pointed out to the army officers in charge of procuring resources that silver was actually better than copper (it is the best conductor on the planet) and the U.S had plenty of it lying around in the treasury's storage doing not very much. The programme got the thousands of tonnes of silver much to the treasury's astonishment, but not before every single ounce was carefully accounted for before and after they were finished with it. One must imagine the impressiveness of being assigned an even better material than one asked for. The project was seriously heavyweight.
Imagine all the yachts Russia would make because of the war effort. :D
Suprised they didn't get gold
@@Marinealver Gold is actually a worse conductor than both copper and silver. Although it is still better than aluminium.
No doubt corruption would see much of it lost! The leash was very tight here. Painstaking recovery of the silver after the project meant very little of it was lost. Filings were scooped up, all bits from machining the coils accounted for. Supposedly this extended to the floorboards around the now obsolete machinery being ripped up and burned so that any scraps of silver would be found and retained. If only that kind of attention to detail were exercised by civil servants today!
Excellent presentation, as always! However, the Dept. of Victory decided that you're producing tanks now instead of TH-cam videos, so, if you don't have anything to show in 3 weeks, we're nationalizing your channel.
LMFAO
Oh, the Department of Victory also advises you to stay away from windows ...
I thought it was the Ministry of Victory?
Two things are ignored in this video: 1. Russia can continue for a long time because they have surplus of food & energy production. 2. They can't make modern weapons because they can't produce advanced electronics or import them. So, the battle comes down to increasingly one-sided fights between Ukrainian forces armed with advanced NATO weapons like HIMARS versus Russian weapons from the 1980s. Maybe Russia can suffer along for a while throwing cannon fodder into human wave attacks, but the West can increasingly give Ukraine weapons that Russia can't match tilting the military balance. What happens when NATO gives Ukraine 190 km ATACMS missiles that can destroy the Kerch bridge? Russia loses Crimea. There are lots of such weapons systems they can give. The only reason this hasn't been done so far is fear of escalation. But, as escalation happens anyway NATO ends up sending Patriot missiles and Leopard tanks? Victory Ukraine.
Russia produces RAW food material, but its food PROCESSING capacity is lower. Russia has long IMPORTED a huge share of its food because of this.
How can this Ukraine fanboys not see Russia can not lose; a nuclear power like a Russia will not lose to a non nuclear power. There is a big bomb that will be dropped before they actually lose and the West will not do much after that to prevent MAD. Only fools believe Russia will lose, they may not win, but Ukraine and NATO are not going to win this war.
@@mitchellanderson3960 How can Russia-bots not understand that Nukes have NO offensive utility at all because using them leads to full scale war. NATO will respond with retaliation against Russia - it need not be nuclear to destroy the Russian military. Putin will then be faced with accepting total defeat and the overthrow of his regime, or escalating again to full scale nuclear war -- which will instantly result in his own death. Putin realizes this which is why he hasn't used Nukes, despite Russia losing the war badly and facing a slow inevitable defeat. Slow is better than quick. And he still hopes the west will get tired and give up. That isn't happening, but it's his only hope.
I remember learning about debasement of coinage in England during Tudor times to fight the various wars with France, starting with Wolsey and ramping up during the regencies of Lord Somerset and the Duke of Northumberland during Edward VI's reign. Debasement could occur in the form of adding base metals such as lead, copper or tin into silver coinage, or through clipping the edges of the coinage and using the clippings to smelt more coins. This caused rising inflation before inflation was properly defined as a concept, with predictable results. (Ultimately the Crown issued a recall of the debased coins to have them resmelted during Elizabeth I's reign).
This was commonplace long before Tudor times.
When Jesus turned over the money changers tables in the Temple for example.
Their job was to ensure purity in tribute, due to rampant debasement, rarely available.
@@royjacobs1204 Yeah Roman coinage starting with the early Empire began a steady pace of debasement. After Augustus set the mintage standards, most of the following Emperors slowly chipped away at the percentage, each cutting another percent or so. It got to the point there was basically only a small flake worth of silver in a denarii coin and it was almost entirely lead.
The Money Printer going Brrrr is just the modern version of debasement, the original post was right about that. Not a damn thing 'Modern' about 'Modern Monetary Theory' in that regard, just new circular logic to justify an ancient trap governments gleefully dive into b/c it solves their near-term problems.
It's worth pointing out that English kings had a lot more reason to get... creative with their treasury, compared to continental monarchs, since they've had to deal with Parliament since the Magna Carta was shoved down their throats.
@@royjacobs1204 Not quite. Their job was to change the local coin to the Tyrian Shekel, the coin that had to be used to pay for sacrifices and the Temple tax. The Tyrian Shekel was 94% rather than the Roman equivalent 80% silver and the Temple had control of the mint.
Henry V’s wars crashed the price of wool - because england used wool as a form of tax with the wool sold on the continent.
Perun I love your videos. They've helped me understand this conflict so much beyond it being the Russo-Japanese War 2 Ukrainian Boogaloo. The fact you do this for *free* blow my goddam mind. Keep up the good work my dude.
TH-camrs get paid by Google. It's not really free. If they can attract more subs and views, they can make a fortune.
@@walden6272 If you think that Perun ran a channel for a minor nerdy gaming topic (so think stamp collecting for train spotters) then he as never motivated by financial gain and was YTer for share knowledge on a given topic.
This came up and he started sharing a lot of his own knowledge on the economic / macro aspects of conflict related to this particular conflict.
That it has taken off, though great, could never have been expected as Perun has stated.
@@walden6272 True but Perun is also donating most of the revenue to humanitarian charities in Ukraine so this clearly isn’t his full time job. While it’s never been explicitly stated I do think it’s clear he works somewhere in or adjacent to the defense industry and typically those jobs pay for a middle class or above lifestyle.
@@ethank5059 I remember Sam Bankman Fried once told his fans he plans to donate all his fortune to help humanity. He pretended to sleep in his old apartment and drive the same car to give people the impression he doesn't care about the money. Now the truth came out, he stole people money in FTX and live a lavish lifestyle. Bought his parents a $200 Million dollar mansion. I'm just saying don't always believe what people tell you no matter how genuine they sound. TH-camrs in general are always after 3 things: fame, money, or attention.
@@ethank5059 you really don't read journalists (which sitting in Ukraine) reports about these charities, where maybe a 100 bucks reach destination, not counting famous scandal how bosses of charities first collect their millions salaries, leftovers to help. In Ukraine volunteers made from locals, which are same post soviets very criminal population. There was a scandal in Mariupol how Red cross volunteers not helping anyone in famous Theater shelter but using status to have a place in shelter, in other time robbing local shops (many witnesses).
Can we summarize this as "a wartime economy sustains production at the expense of countless types of wealth, luxury goods, credit, living standards and market efficiencies in the economy. And most modern economies have a ton of those!" ?
"There is a great deal of ruin in a nation." - Adam Smith
More like 'people are willing to endure a lot more hardship than one would imagine if they are sufficiently.convinced their only.alternative is ruin'
Anyone looking for an example of a war time economy, see Canada in WW2. One of the least populated nations in the world produced the world’s third largest navy, and huge army and air units.
For what it's worth, the 3rd largest navy thing is something of an exaggeration. IIRC, it was 4th place for a few days, if you include certain landing ships but exclude minelayers. There's a lot of extremely creative accounting involved in the claim.
also more Canadians were in uniform per capita than any other combatant nation.
@@nathankonrad4059 the third largest claim isn't based upon tonnage, but it was made upon number of hulls in service.
@@Conn30Mtenor I'm aware. I'm talking about the number if ships.
@@nathankonrad4059
Go talk to Alexander Clarke, naval historian and a Doctor of War. He did a series called Five Problems which looked into the RCN in a fair bit of detail.
Mom, the mean Australian who shatters my friends’ understanding of history and military science is doing it again!
There is a unique quality to your detailed explanations that is difficult to describe: after I've watched one of your videos, I often say to myself, "Well, that was perfectly obvious, I'm pretty sure that I knew that all along." But in fact, I gained most of my "knowledge" by watching your video. Your skill at explaining and setting out complex chains of information are so smoothly accomplished, that they seem to be coming from my own thoughts, and not from your video. Does that even make sense?
Your videos are one of the few sources about the war I still follow. Concise and informative as usual. Bravo!
"Armies don't have unlimited budgets"
Meanwhile US army: $1.64 Trillion
Laughs in Zumwalt-class destroyer program.
Yup, this boondoggle turned too expensive even for US military budget - and it's not the only such case.
I've figured the US Budget is more along the lines of:
1) US Government creates the money out of thin air, to purchase things the government needs/wants (goods, services, land, etc)
2) The money circulates around the economy, as the people producing stuff for the government want to buy stuff for themselves also
3) The IRS through taxes destroys money, encouraging people to keep going out and doing something to benefit the country
The key with the 'debt' is that there is a slowly increasing money supply to keep inflation under control. Debt is effectively a measure of how much money is in circulation in the economy.
Example:
In year 1 a nation has a 10 billion dollar budget, and that year takes in 9 billion in taxes. It is technically in debt, but now there is an additional billion dollars in the economy. This can cause prices to price due to inflation. The next year that same country does a 10 billion budget and 10 billion in taxes. There is no change in amount of dollars in circulation. The third year the nation has a 10 billion budget, and takes in 11 billion in taxes. The total number of dollars in circulation drops by 1 billion dollars, and can cause stagnation/deflation.
To get a real-life example of what I mean, look up the following pieces of data from the Clinton years:
1) total savings in bank accounts
2) level of US debt
You will find that the two are almost identical. Clinton's attempts to reduce the US debt caused US savings levels to drop, as the reduced debt meant money was being taken out of the economy.
Where did you get that number from?
The US defence budget is 800+ billion dollars for all four (now five I guess) branches
Unlimited, until you hit the limit.
@@Emanon... 2022(includes covid19 spending) funds available to the D.O.D. I think they got tasked with all emergency production funds for vaccines, medication, equipment,etc. www.usaspending.gov/agency/department-of-defense?fy=2022
One of my favorite to date. Living in a Pacific Coast port on a former base means the vestiges of the both foriegn and domestic economic policy are everywhere. But that was fought by my parents' parents and they didn't teach us anything about WW1 or 2 other than the fact we won. But looking at the empty shipyards, hangers and bunkers is only the obvious. A quick word search of name of street I live in led to a civilian volunteer in NY and NCO who helped the Army supply the US troops in Mexico using a civilian aircraft brigade. The mission to chase down Pancho Villa was in dire need with no one there willing to sell more bullets. A wealthy attorney who trained at Wright Bros saw the present need and pushed gov't to facilitate training pilots just ahead on WW1. Things change fast in responses to new threats and sometimes create solutions and new problems. That what I found at the bottom of the rabbit hole. Viva Mexico. I love that country and its economyy could use a Perun episode or twelve. *fun fact: when Pancho fell out of favor with the US he did find a new supplier in Germany granted they could park oil tankers in Tampico. He declined and sheninanigans ensued. Hence Zimmerman telegram. Viva Mexico. Procurement wins wars.
I love your content! I love that it shows that we are NOT just click zombies that have an attention span of 10 min tops as the big media outlets believe!
Never change your PPP-style :D
I basically am. But this presentation is so interesting I don't lose my focus.
If TH-cam believed that was true they would have kept the old ten minute time limit. Unless the contention is that, despite longer form being allowed on the platform, attention spans continued to shrink.
I'd still bet this channel has a below average number of Murican watchers... 🤔🦅😩
The Calutrons used silver because there was a massive shortage of copper which was being used for the war effort. That is why they got the silver from the Treasury. If copper had been available, they would have used copper.
Could also have used gold...even better conductor of electricity.....
@@JohnSmith-yv6eq NO!
My grandpa was a German saddlemaker and upholsterer in WW2. Leatherwork at that time and long after was still largely a manual craft and only to some degreee machine assisted. The sewing machines in my Grandpas home workshop used for making horse riding saddles from heavy duty leather were all hand stitched even in 1990. The hand stiched saddles and snaffle-bits he handmade were primarily used by the German olympic team. He was regularly visited by younger people seeking to apprentice on his skill to contiue making the required quality for high-end gear that would not fail your during use. Regarding the German war economy horse gear to keep the logistics of the ground warfare going was putting a strain o the leatherware industry using at that time heavy foot pedal driven flywheel driven leather sewing machines. Electric ones would too easily break their needles, as they would have no microcontroller to regulate their power output. Sewing leather with a machine requires a lot of training. Putting female and slave workes from manually stitching repair work on clothing to manually stiching aircraft seats is a big deal. The material is a fair bit harder and you are more likely to pinch your finger. A good stiching is still a good stiching that is easily to visually inspect with a gun in hand of the KZ supervisor of your labor camp. Sabotaging a sewing machine parts is rather easy. I would assume German war industry did know pretty well why they chose to hand-sticht aircraft upholstery work manually - as evil and sinister as those incentives probablöy were. Pls. also note that companies making sewing machines in my hometown area were converted to other products like tanks and gun mount parts. They had the mills and lathes to assemble fast-spining rotary machinery with high precision ball bearing seats and skilled workers to make the tools & jigs for that quickly. The US did transition to war economy for selling theuir arms to the UK and Russia while not being pressed to mobilize soldiers. It is very dicey to make a singluar "they didn't even do that" singular argument out of context to prove or differentiate a certain point. Especially when that is likely an armchair historians reflection who never ever worked in any leather factory or craft-woirkshop themselves. In my teenage years in the 1980ies/1990ies my grandpa was a lone survivor in a dead profession. It was mostly gone by the 1960ies. The few countries who still do farm with horse & carriage get cheap converyor belt leatherwares today or they are stitched by child labour in some remote place on the economic level of Afghanistan. Letherwork is many times still painful manual labor even today, when it is about certain thickness, quality or fits ov leather. One prime example is footballs, where the inside out fit cannot be machined. The same goes for some parts of leather shoes. This also reflects on certain parts of leather shoes sewing machines needing longer wider arms. So you run into difficulties of management balance to ramp up tank and gun mount production at the same time when increasing the need for sewing machines for leatherware in logictics, military boots and aircraft seats. In many cases when throwing money at a problem won't fix it, blood, seat and tears will. It often is a "minimal re-training" approach to use the skills of the workforce. You can more quickly raise an army of leather hand-stitchers than any alternative.
I stiched manually my work socks yesterday while listening to some history documentary on yt in my armchair. Am I armchair historian/tailor now?
Well explained.
Having sewn (thinner) leather by hand and with a (semi-industrial) machine, I can confirm. Once leather gets beyond about 2 mm or so, you either do it by hand, or you need a *lot* of skill and special machines, tools, etc.
The machine I use can work well at *slow* speeds, but even *that* is closer to a bandaid!
Only in Peruns comment section will you find a whole new Ted talk ❤
@@irvhh143 Also important was the abandonment of conscription, as willing and well-compensated soldiers are better at the job of soldiering. Then, of course, the US has educational and medical benefits for military veterans and preference for some jobs such as postal workers.
This brilliant Perun-esque exposé proves the Eastern european (once again) right when it comes to Russia : for this war to end fast, we have to provide the UAF with what they ask for. As cynical as it may sounds, the key to a quick victory is to cause overwhelming losses to the ennemy in the shortest span of time possible.
Like I said to my cadets back in the years, if you don't want to have to chase the prey around all day, be the snake versus the rabbit : first, casually crawl forward and hypnotise ; second, bite as fast and hard as possible ; third, poison and immobilize ; fourth, swallow it all in a single move.
For the last 25 years, Russia has done it by the book. Worked each time until feb. 2022 when they tried to bite Ukraine and suddenly realized the rabbit was a mongoose and that it had friends.
Edit : typos (thousand apologies, the most decisive of which is : I'm a froggie 😁 )
Le ribbit
"Twang your magic twanger froggie!" th-cam.com/video/G6a3fck0NBI/w-d-xo.html
@@rabbi120348 Love it :)
Why? Not our war; not our enemy; and besides, Ivan couldn't fight his way out of a wet paperbag. There is no national interest; no concievable threat; and we shouldn't be throwing our geld at them to our own detriment.
@@stevewatson6839 I beg to differ and for four main reasons. For the sake of debate, I'll assume you're an american.
First, for an imperialist autocracy to back off, and I mean really back off, it's not enough to merely repel its forces or just to stand your ground. 94-96 : the Chechens managed to throw back the Russians. 99 : The Empire strikes back with even more power, crushes everything in its path, including Grozny, and swallow Chechnya. On the contrary, in 79-89, the U.S.-backed Afghans punished the Soviets so painfully that they turned tail never to return.
Second, there is a very big national interest for america in terms of geopolitics. The U.S. have Russia exactly where they would not have dare to dream of : a high intensity proxy war where they can grind Moscow military without losing a single man, revitalize NATO, provoke a wake-up call in the UE defence complex and secure the European front. This done the U.S. will be able to focus towards China and the Pacific. Best deal ever.
Third, it must be a good time to own an american arms company : the whole world is witnessing the blatant limits of russian stuff in real time and 4K, and thus starts buying made-in-Murica. Not to mention the petrol and shale-gas exports. Jobs, income, Ka-tchink.
Fourth, and for me at least the bigger reason : noone like bullies. Until they're beaten back, they will keep on bullying. Russia is a bully. This bully invades countries, destroys cities, kills people. This has to stop and the sooner the better. Sanctions are at best slow to yield results. Hence let's give the ukrainians the tools they need. Simple as that.
That stat on Paraguay after the war of the triple alliance is insane. It wasn't even just a majority of the male population, it was a vast majority. In the census taken after the war, women outnumbered men by 4 to 1.
What the actual fuck
For me personally this is a perfect follow-up video after watching the warographics video on Poland's potential rise to being a European powerhouse.
Heissenberg and Von Weisacker were stunned when they saw the vast scale of the Manhattan Project after WW2, and the first thing they said was Germany was never able to have invested a similar amount of funds in their Uran Verband.
An excellent analysis (as always) by Perun but with one minor Putin-created flaw. In all of Perun's examples, the nations were "at war". People did their patriot duty by buying war bonds because their nation was "at war". The general population mobilized into war production producing near total employment because the nation was "at war". But Russia and therefore Russians are not "at war". Russia has only been conducting a "Special Military Operation". The unemployment rate in Russia at the moment is estimated as being in excess of 30%. Russia is not in a war economy. For Putin to use /all/ the tools Perun mentions, he needs to convince the Russian people that they are "at war". But the problem with that is, Putin runs the risk of Russians starting to ask "It was only a special military operation. How did it become a war? Someone must have messed up for it to have gone so bad. Who do we blame?" Putin has kept power by inducing rampant political apathy in the Russian populace. To move to a war economy requires high levels of patriotism, the opposite of political apathy. If Putin awakens the political giant, he may face Revolution. If he doesn't, he faces Failure Mode 2 through the loss of critical production simply because he wasn't able to mobilize the population to war production. How long will Russia last as a result? Impossible to guess. Putin might not have all the levers available to a war-time leader but he has many of them. He can keep going for quite some time. But for Putin, the clock is ticking. His only hope is that Ukraine's allies stop supporting Ukraine before time runs out.
Putin put not only his regime but his life on the line in this gamble. Considering his one man rule over Russia, he will pull every lever available to him to try and squeek out a win. He's not afraid at all to impose pain on his sheepish population or risk long term economic consequences. His life depends on it.
On the other side, Ukraine is facing cultural genocide and loss of sovereignty. Even though popular support may be different on the respective sides, it appears this will go on for some time. Thanks again for another great presentation Perun! Well done!
There are so many police forces in Russia, even little one-man protest is literally impossible, not talking about mass protests. Just look at Belarus protests to see an example what will be, and russian scenario will be 150% more violent to people. If you think that russians supports this war or genocide or even Putin - you are wrong. Telling you this as russian.
Russia is fighting a defensive War. America is using Ukraine to attack the Donbas to pressure Russia
You are dumb if you think that "one man rules over Russia". From the Russian point of view, it's all one of attacks of the USA against Russia.
i was going to say, Russia has to endure hardships to keep the war going. Ukrainians have to endure hardships to keep living. This makes motivation hard for one, easy for another. All the Ukrainian government has to do is show they are still fighting and they will have local support. Russia has to keep coming up with motivations, distractions, bandaids, replacements, appeasements to keep its population in support and not under duress. Because if too many wealthy Russians suddenly find they can't drive their fancy car, that might be enough for them to turn against the war.
Ukrainians are literally living on wood stoves for heating, water and food cooking, and still support the defence of Ukraine and the war economy.
@@littlekong7685 Yeah, sure. Because when Russia wins the war, obviously, every Ukrainian will be killed. It's ridiculous how brainwashed you are.
"If you hand a bunch of rifles to a bunch of finance bros [...] no one is gonna die"
That's a cool roast.
But incorrect. There will be a number of them freezing to death in the trenches in winter...
Nah, they woukd fortify their workplace and start shooting at any Russian soldiers
Congratulations Putin, you started a Civil War!
Since the war started, this question has always been on my mind. Especially after Armenia and Azerbaijan almost got bankrupt within 2 months due to the nagorno-karabakh conflict. appreciate this explanation.
Scale effect. Armenia and Azerbaijan are super small countries, so small that Caucasus mountains are larger than both of them combined
Zimbabwe not only handed out 1 Trillion Dollar notes... I have a 50 Trillion (50000000000000) Dollar note in my wallet at all time. Ive been in Zimbabwe back in 2009 and have fond memories buying a single cigarette for 50 Trillion. that`s 50000000000000 or 5*10^13
If I remember correctly I spent 2.000 Trillion (that`s 15 zeros!!) in 100 trillion dollar notes on a single meal.
to put it in perspective: 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollar used to be ~0.40 USD
Problem is that Russia still does busniess with the west even in 2023. A full no exception embargo is needed
ZOG slave
That is, sadly, impossible because China will not agree and it cannot be forced to comply.
Wont help. Any corperation did not just pack up and leave. They sold their parts in those countries to russian place holders ( those fake russian knockoffs in mcdonalds for example)which they will either buy back or outcompete once sanctions drop. Corperations should have been forced to abandon everything in russia leaving millions of russians without jobs and thus less tax money.
@@rossmurray6849 I wasnt refering to China
@@rossmurray6849 PRChina for the most part complied with the sanctions because they have not much leverage to go against the US led initiative. And frankly, realpolitik wise it's for the best...
Lets not forget that companies have not pulled out of Russia. They have only rebranded selling the same products under a different name. Same for Russian companies in western nations. Same products, same origination, new brand, imported from another country for slower turn around. The only companies that have not done this are the small ones. The big companies were only inconvenienced by such sanctions. So really not too much has changed. Only a little more difficult to make profit.
The first Gulf war is probably the exception to the rule, as not only was it short but some estimates have actually calculated the United States made a profit due to the payments / donations by allies (many doubts about that). Saudia arabia, for example, not only provided money, bases, etc, but provided the fuel.
Now, the counter argument is that it really should include both gulf wars, but the second gulf war was a war of (bad) choice, but was also most of cost was an attempt to rebuild and occupy Iraq (badly). The U.S. could have, and probably should have, just gone home after major combat operations ended. However, the united states has demonstrated in gulf war I and 2, plus Afghanistan, was able to sustain such massive military spending, without major disrupting to the domestic economy and mobilizing the economy for "total war". The united states is working through the massive debt that was added to the U.S. overall debt; but, it was able to absorb it at a rate almost no other economy in the world could do. Also as the wotlrld reserve currency, it has the option of making the rest of the world, including the enemy, essentially finance its wars. Thus, why we hear China and Russia make lots of noise, but very little progress, creating their own global reserve currency to replace the dollar. I am not sure what the united states economy "squeal point" is, but, given WWII, it is much larger than any country in the world; Possibly combined.
As Peter Zeihan has recently noted, part of the problem is that a world reserve currency is _convenient,_ and part of it is that nobody who wants a new world reserve currency wants it enough to help anyone else's currency become one.
All Blitzkrieg is the ultimate achievement. That's why we be become common thinking that war ends before they started.
@@boobah5643 not a fiat currency, but a gold backed currency will have acceptance.
I used to remember the old advertisements for Sunday night monster trucks. Now I get that same excitement from PowerPoints on military logistics.
ditto. sunday SUNDAY sunday, at the Tacomadommmmmmeeeeee. Perun, powerpoint for just You YOU YOU YOU and yourself, at your computer desk desk desk
Because it gives +20% military factory construction speed, -20% factory conversion cost and sets consumer goods factories at 20%
If you are fascist or communist you can even go for total mobilization
@@dogukan127 But then you have to put women in the workforce, which Germany just wouldn't do, silly people.
@@RuosongGao Producing babies is more important than producing shells.
@@LastBrigadier ...Sadly, in HOI the growth of populations just a simple exponential.
Try letting your game run to 2020 and be amazed at one Chinese province having 500 million men and casualties sitting at somewhere in the billions.
@@LastBrigadier only going to matter if you think the war will last 16+ years..
**Overview of Russia’s Economic Crisis** And it’s gotten so much worse since I cobbled this together months ago as well as a recent nationwide explosion in crime (e.g., +675% in Kursk Oblast, +200% in Moscow despite its huge police presence. [AND THESE ARE JUST THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS]
1. May 22 vs May 21 Production Crash
1. Cars: -96.7% (3,700 cars)
2. Trucks: -39.3%
3. ICE motors: -57%
4. Pass. train wagons: -59.8%
5. Freight wagons: -51.8%
6. Fiberglass cables: -80.8%
7. Fridges: -58.1%
8. Washing machines: -59.2%
9. AC electric motors: -49.9%
10. Elevators: -34.7%
11. Excavators: -60%
2. 35-40% of work sector, by Russia’s own estimates, are or will soon be unemployed due to private and multinationals pulling out. Their own estimate is 12-15% of their labor force was/is directly employed by foreign biz/capita and indirectly employed 35%-40%. So, a loss of up to 55%, but probably a good deal less cause they will try to absorb as many companies as they can.Moscow’s own Mayor said hundreds-of-thousands of Moscovites are going to loser their job.
TOS & Pravda have themselves said 500,000-700,000 top IT engineers have left the country.
3. Russia is running deficits and is unable to finance the deficits because nobody, since they defaulted, can or would want to provide loans (much more on this later)
4. The Zombie Currency: the ruble hasn’t collapsed only because it’s a managed currency. Russia has done an endless number of short term manipulations: a) Froze stock market: only allowed buying stocks. No selling (makes your stock worthless). b) massive penalties on exchanging rubles to any other currencies to outright bans. c) Capping amount of rubbles you can exchange. d) Massive, unsustainable interest rates
5. Fraudulent Market Reporte: Putin has suppressed most of the bad data and cherry picked good reports to try and trick the west into thinking sanctions aren’t working
6. One of its biggest products, arms, is in trouble: Russia is already seeing cratering arms sales since the S-400 and army in general have performed so terribly against US, Turkish and EU products. Furthermore, they can’t keep up with demand to restock their own army let alone without sanctions cutting them off from required items to produce arms. Hell, they can’t even keep on low tech armament production like shells, which is why they had to make a massive purchase from North Korea. It will be years before they can begin to export again in serious numbers and by that time it will likely be too late to recover.
7. Dropping Energy Revenue: It’s a myth a spike in the price of NG and oil has offset the drop in sales volume. This is due to rising production costs with the lost
8. Russia is unable to pivot and sell the extra natural gas to China or India. Only one tiny pipeline to China (10% of what goes into Europe) and their oil production is very inefficient, which means already low margins. Pair that with the fact tankers take 35 days to get to market in China and India and it = not much $.
9. Russia didn’t see the EU agreeing to the 15% gas usage cut. And they certainly didn’t foresee Germany and others moving toward a permanent reduction Russian gas by at least 50%. Germany is way ahead of schedule in LNG terminals that will allow importation from Norway + US.
10. They’ve lost a significant percentage of their best and brightest. They’ve lost access to most of the enterprise technology required to efficient run businesses in every single type of industry. They’re going to fall years behind in R&D in various industrial sectors. And so on.
As for their currency, which now a “managed currency,” the Russian state has employed tactics to delay its crash and temporarily prop the ruble up, but those same measures will result in it and the economy being crushed in the long run including:
1. Froze stock market and then only allowed buying (basically, makes your stock worthless)
2. Putting massive penalties on exchanging rubles to any other currencies
3. Capping the amount of rubbles you can exchange
4. Actions that will ensure foreign investors stay away for decades like seizing foreign owned business accounts and...
5. Seizing billions of dollars worth of planes owned by foreign companies but leased by Aeroflot so it will never operate in the West again without at least a half billion dollars in upfront capital from the gov to buy the planes outright
6. And those planes seized will now be worthless because once their servicing cannot be tracked by the international aviation authority it loses its certification permanently
7. And this is all ignoring the fact that we all know that the sanctions on the energy don’t really start biting until 2023 due to a stepped reduction plan and waiting for existing manufacturing supplies to run out
8. If someone wants the full story on all the other things that will crush its economy, watch this: th-cam.com/video/aEpk_yGjn0E/w-d-xo.html
9. Their debt problems are showing in their inability to ramp up war time production. Many Russian factories refusing to repair damaged military equipment due to lack of payment and sufficient parts
**Russian Debt Default**
For the first time in more than 100 years, Russia has defaulted on foreign bond debt obligations, It is true they could have paid it off in rubles, but the contract required dollars and they didn’t have enough.
Having defaulted = good luck getting funding to:
-rebuild your military or any of the energy, armament factories, weapons research infrastructure, etc. that have been blowing up around the country
-produce arms exports (even before the war they didn’t have the capital to build their 5th gen fighters w/out advance payment from buyers
-maintain let alone upgrade basic and critical infrastructure to stay economically competitive. With no parts coming in, even if they had the money, they couldn’t fix many critical parts of their manufacturing and energy infrastructure, which will make their GDP tank even further.
Any loans secured would/will be at crippling prices. Russia is likely going to become a vassal of China as it is already being pulled close into its massive economic orbit.
This is just the tip of the economic iceberg for them with all the quasi-nationalization of foreign owned assets they’ve done, which will mean when the war is over no one will want to buy securities in their markets let alone lease stuff like billions in jets to them.
I'm gonna leave a comment over here just to get further notifications of future responses. I wanna see where this discussion will go. Seems interesting.
@@mekingtiger9095 yes its all might be true .. but what is the point? do you want the war to stop or do you want Russia to lose cuase if you want russia to lose russia might last for at least few more years of combat and shelling, thats mean thousands of death in both sides ... so in those years ukraine might become a dead land.ok russia might lose in the end but still no peace in this region for decades to come... for what? russia is a threat with nukes anyway, and you cant invaid it to take away this ability, so what is the goal in the end ? if you cant destroy russias ability to wipe anyone?)) yes its a double sword problem but who cares ... )) those wars painted in the media as good vs evil is a BS ...some countries hugely benefits from this war ... and thats the problem alongside with russia invasion...
This is extremely interesting! I really want to see more information on this! Almost everything in mass-media and TH-cam is generalized and stops after 2-3 points (and is extremely polarized), that I can't trust it. Perun touched on this subject in a few of his videos but I really want more. And I don't think I'm the only one. :)
You should probably bring your Russian economy statistics update to date. I just looked at a few of the numbers that you cited - and near the end of year they are not quite as bad as you cite (so you are blatantly wrong about it getting worse).
Currently available data - Jan-Oct 2022 to Jan-Oct 2021:
1) Cars: -65% from around 1,13 to 0,39 mln
2) Trucks: -23% from 148 to 114 hundred thousand
3) Pass. train wagons: -13% from 1257 to 1098
4) Freight wagons: -20% from around 51 thousand to 41 thousand
5) Fridges: -42% from 3,44 to 1,98 mln.
So this illustrates the point the video was making - while Russian economy is experiencing significant contraction in many sectors, it's nowhere near completely collapsing at the moment. It's going to be gradual prolonged decline rather than total crash
Up at 6 am in Canada waiting for this!
@*UncleJoe* For quality material? It's simple justice! 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇨🇦🇺🇦🦘🦅🦫🌻
Operation Desert Storm was very short and successful. Got in kicked ass accomplished the mission of liberating Kuwait and got out. Cleanest "War" of all time. It was even like an Infomercial for our Military Industrial Complex and secured access to middle east Oil fields so it was good for the US economy.
Agreed. My first thought was Desert Storm.
Well that was excellent and I for certain had underestimated the resilience of the Russian war economy - it seems we have a long way to go sadly - thank you for such excellent analysis!!!
This war will not end soon. Whatever your personal estimate of it's length is, it will be longer than that.
Game changing exception: If Biden takes the gloves off. IE, he doesn't provide 50 Bradleys; he provides 1000 instead. And 500 Abrams. And 200 F-16s. These sorts of numbers (and more) exist in American boneyards, so this could be done. It would be a large process, involving lots of training and logistics, but it could be done.