ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 ก.พ. 2025
- Tony Seba, author of "Clean Disruption" gives the keynote address at the AltCars Expo and Conference,Sept 19, 2014.
The keynote is titled “Clean Disruption: 100% electric transportation and 100% solar power by 2030″.
The book 'Clean Disruption' and this keynote assert that by 2030:
• All new mass-market vehicles will be electric.
• All of these vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving).
• Up to 80 per cent of parking spaces and highways will be redundant.
• Taxis as we know them will be obsolete.
• The concept of car ownership will be obsolete.
• Oil will be obsolete
• All new energy will be provided by solar (and wind)
More information at
tonyseba.com/sp...
Fascinating talk. He needs to condense this down into a TED Talk! This is prime TED material.
One of the most important talks I've ever listened to !
first when i saw that the video is 40 minutes, i thought that's too long, i'm not in the mood of watching for 40 minutes. i'm gonna watch a few minutes, but after that a few minutes there comes a few other minutes until watching it to the end :D
great talk, enjoyed it.
This is the one that would definitely change your life and your life style within the next hour on.
Excellent Presentation.:) Tesla's vision of wireless energy distribution is coming to fruition. The big power plant in the sky has been there all along powering our planet for billions of years. The leaves on trees and plants are nature's PV/Solar panels we can learn a lot from... I'm really going to miss those wires and utility poles littering the sky.:-/
The Tesla Model S is such a wonderful automobile. The BEST car I EVER driven and that's coming from a lifelong "car guy". :)
This is the kind of stuff that makes you want to get out of bed in the morning.:)
Thank you Tony Seba!
Watching this in 2022. Fascinatingly accurate but Tesla is the only truly viable American EV maker in the industry.
We urgently need an update that includes a continuous revision of political attitudes in the improving context Tony advocates
Wonderful exposition of future of Energy and energy of future. i wish to live to enjoy the pollution free from exhust, burning Coal, noise and horns, but who is living up to 2030 shall enjoy at least not me. My children will. i enjoyed many which my parents and Grand Parents could not. It is the go of the World. Hats off for Tony Seba for such a brilliant deliberation which meticulausly I enjoed Twice!!
Great video. Eerily on point.
Thanks Tony.
Well prepared speech and lots of good info in here.
Cheers
What an amazing talk - all the progress I have been speculating on , spelled out in rock-solid figures and statistics. As you watch his carefully documented predictions, you know he is right. So many people in so many industries need to be aware of the rapidly advancing future and think about the horses on Broadway.
Great talk! Very much looking forward to the next few years! :D
A fantastic optimistic picture of the future. Very heartening!
This has nothing to do with optimism. It´s just about crunching the numbers.
Solar will eat everything... No wonder they fought so hard in the 70's to try and prevent the industry from ever getting off the ground. It was like pushing a boulder up the hill for 40 years, and now, thank God, the boulder is finally rolling down the other side!
I´m sorry to tell you: there is no god.
Growing 40% a year since back then, so it's the normal learning curve isn't it?
No one was suppressing solar. The technology was just not yet advanced enough. When Leonardo Divinci first came up with a design for the helicopter, was he being suppressed? No, we just didn't have the modern materials to build his idea.
Very nice talk.
Would like the include the term 'Convergent' in addition to 'Disruptive' - Convergence of Electric, Solar, Service Model, and all that; many different technologies converging to make a transportation revolution all around, which is also less polluting.
It is not going to happen that fast but I love his optimism. Personally, as a PV and EV owner, I'm already there.
His forecast is not based on optimism. It´s simply the data. And actually, the disruption will be even faster than he predicted.
Very enjoyable and also very disruptive. Whilst watching this I missed the game :)
sounds fantastic in general.
The problem with car sharing is what if you're using it after someone's just messed it up.
then it will be dirty - so what?
It has been suggested that the cars will have cameras to see obvious problems and the cars will be regularly routed through inspectation/cleaning substations.
what a great talk!
(minor error at 32 min: "oil gets hits twice" -- you forget that the cars will be driving all the time)
I think he means there will be a glut as electric car sales displace gas burning car sales. Peak oil. Then there will be a long slow hit as all gas burning cars disappear from the roads.
The opening photo. 5th ave. in 1900 was a no car zone.
Great talk, thanks!
Another issue is how much tax will be placed for each autonomous ride
Great talk.
All electric vehicles - yes likely.
All autonomous vehicles - no chance. If you ride a motorcycle then you will already understand. Autonomous vehicles cannot replace the current variety of vehicle uses. I will always want to drive MY car.
The biggest concern I have with these trends is how are we going to handle the economic crisis of having millions of people's careers disappearing? If computers are doing all the driving, then we no longer need bus drivers, truckers, taxi/uber drivers, and it isn't a stretch to say this will apply to things like fork lifts and construction equipment as well. Not to mention if we are dropping from 100mil cars a year to 20mil, that will be thousands of manufacturing jobs which are already being squeezed by automated factories.
This sounds like an amazing future to live in only if we can figure out how we are changing our economy to not leave millions behind.
More so. Who will need selv driving vehicles if people won´t have money to buy one.
Sounds like more hands free for solar panels on roofs, or hyperloops or things like that
The process has already begun. GM, Ford and Chrysler have already closed factories. But because our economy is booming, the dislocation is not felt in the workforce. The next few decades will be a time of upgrading our infrastructure and making new, more efficient products based on the new technologies. The cost of living is going to be dropping as our cars and electricity cost us less. Much current, substandard housing will be obsoleted and replaced. Keep the economy booming and resist the temptations of those who suggest we all sit home and draw a government check and live in poverty.
great video and so true. kandi technologies is one company in that disruptive environment selling in china with car leasing and rental and enduser products for sale with subsidies making them super affordable. its time!
Cool
My questions would be: What will happen to all the existing vehicles in use currently? Are we going to set up a new industry to recycle them or will there be the possibility of converting our cars to electricity. My concern is that all that new space might just be filled up with out of date junk. Is there a plan to recycle all of it?
In one of his other talks, it was him I think who said that it will take 20 years after the last gas powered car is sold, before they are largely in the junkyard. My notion is that laws could ban them sooner if we want to go to a full self driving fleet. There will always be antique cars but they are going to be limited to some rural zones and trucked in.
Excellent talk Tony! #AutonomusDriving and #eMobility are closer than most think. Our public transportation company, DVB AG, in Dresden has a full-electric bus running along its network and a regional rail company, #Erzgebirgsbahn, is currently transforming a standard diesel commuter engine into an electric-hybrid using making it even ready for semi-autonomous driving on the tracks. As part of the #InnoTourSN with Minister Martin Dulig, Ministry of Economics, Labour and Infrastructure (@SMWA_SN), this summer their facility where the transformation is under way was on the visit schedule.
indian people need the autonomous tech ! can save life of lot of people
in india u don't get trained like in a western country
Self-driving cars will only be limited by regulation and insurance.
And Insurance Cos go by the numbers. If a self driving car is safer then the insurance will reflect that. And some neanderthals will howl.
All railroads need to electrify as well.
Or at least hybridize. Even jet aircraft manufacturers are trying to hybridize.
Rail engines are already electric. But oil is used to generate the electricity. Don't know why it's not direct diesel power.
And those predictions made over 5 years ago!
It's all good -- except how to get out of the one-person-per-car compulsion? It's a cultural thing: Americans do not want to share with "strangers", which is why buses are so unpopular here and are regarded as a poor person's mobility solution -- even though these are absolutely required to solve rush hour gridlock. Can self-driving cars with 1 person per car solve this critical problem for cities? If not, we'll need something else (smaller cars?). Maybe someone needs to do for the bus what Musk did for the private automobile: make it the premium product. Is it possible to make a self-driving electric bus that is 2x as fast as the private automobile and is 2x as luxurious? I think we could at least give it a shot!
17:00 So in 2016 we are now at the $35K car.
Timeline is ok, you have to look better. It's 35-40k $ and that is correct. Tesla Model 3 in 2017-2018
I like what he is saying. I am getting a Tesla car, As I like what he is saying........very nice
This will save the earth for our grandchildren. Get on board as soon as you can Not only our grandchildren are at risk. All life forms are at risk if we don't go 100% renewable before the ozone disappears and UV rays cook us all
Motorcycles ?
Just the same. They will go all electric
The first cars were steam - and the next generation of cars should be too!!! Steam is far more efficient than solar and less costly to build - it will come - and sooner than you think!!
Fast Technology!
Why public transport is not a solution? I'm sure these technologies can be use by public transport? Won't that be the cheapest, healthier and greener choice? Why must we own car? Look at Singapore, they're doing fine with most of their citizen don't own a car.
Scintillating talk. I have a few questions:
1. If the new technology hits the car industry (may be even automobile industry) by 80 % why does car industry promote this technology, of course it has many advantages but not for the car industry.
2. Surely the automated vehicles business is going to hit the employment of car drivers, or employment in transport services. Is there any specific number on the unemployment that will be created in a country like USA ?
Old jobs will be gone and new created. I don't see the problem.
It would make more sense for the weaker players in the industry, like Chrysler, and many of the weaker European and Asian brands to simply liquidate and return capital to their stockholders. The auto industry is going to be smaller in the future. Taxis won't be entirely a cheap, low grade experience. There will be some that are luxery minded. NYC has towncar cabs already. We will see more of that.
I had the pleasure of test driving this (very affordable) self-charging german prototype of the Sono Sion. Check out the video-report: th-cam.com/video/ymu6_RVXrOw/w-d-xo.html
Mmmm. Somewhere in the middle is the solution..
Well, this is a three year old talk now, still not bad. Still waiting for that $40K Tesla Model X though. Shoulda skipped the gullwing nonsense.
Even if Stanford takes F1 driver samples and uses AI, I will drive better than that. Even in race conditions!
Lets assume that everybody have an electric car. What about charging stations?
where do you charge you cel phone?,......at home?......same thing with your electric car.....and for those long distant travels there will be plenty of charging stations around
KIM ROLLO you haven´t lived in a big city have you?
yes I have...... whats your point?
Have you lived in a big city where there is growing quantity of electric cars? If yes what is the name of the city?
im still waiting for you to answer my question......whats your point?..