This was one of your most important videos Sam. The foundation of energy production is changing, and very few understand the enormous societal benefit probabilities coming during the next seven years. Well done - RESPECT!
What benefits exactly? Fossil fuels have brought the whole world into a better living situation. Better crop growth, less malnutrition, better production, cheaper energy. Everything you see around you, your cars, computers, clothes, food, plastics, etc, are derived from fossil fuels. So what exactly will be the enormous societal benefits in the next seven years? Energy will be more expensive once government stops supporting Green energy, people in developing nations will suffer and none of this has any real proven reason to take place.
Discovered Tony Seba in 2016, which led me to TSLA. Took a test drive (it's free), was so blown over, I bought my daughter some shares. So interesting to see it all start to unfold as Tony predicted. Next thing is Precision Fermentation!
@@markumbers5362 percision ferments will have to join the que, I have been cooking "meat tasting" dishes using mushrooms for ages. Tough to tell the difference.
When Nuclear was first being rolled out the thinkers were saying that the cost of electricity would be so low the supply would not need to be metered. We all know how that worked out. There is no free lunch, Sam.
Oil companies made sure that nuclear never took off. They got the environmentalist to do their job for them. It's different with solar because your roof won't cause a nuclear meltdown.
Renewables will never be free, but their prices have been dropping significantly over the last 20 years. After the initial costs are recovered from energy sold, then there are maintenance costs and replacement costs every 30 years, which are negligible when compared to how much energy is produced. The beauty of renewables is that once the initial investment has been made, the source of the energy production itself is free, unlike oil, which needs to be drilled/refined, and transported and coal needs to be dug, and transported. Calculations are done to compare the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and right NOW, the cheapest is onshore wind, then solar, then offshore wind. Renewables are the future.
Tony Seba’s presentations were very influential for me too. Very excited that this disruption is gathering steam. I can’t afford an EV yet, but my lawn mower and power tools have been disrupted 😊
I have battery powered weed whacker and leaf blower... Works very well, it's quiet and I just plug in the battery to recharge. I can't actually imagine using... what, gasoline?
All my tools, drills, lawn mower are electric. And im so happy with them. Cant afford ev yet so i will just wait till it gets way cheaper in 5 years time. I remember my rich friends playing samsung or iphone and im just watching on the side during early days of smartphone. Now i was able to buy so cheap smartphone brands anywhere. Patience is important and time will come for us to get these cheaper ev soon.
Viking, thank you for spreading the joy, the love, the great forward looking optimism. I agree with your bright appraisal for our future! Love/light for your wive’s plight.😢❤
Hello Sam, I started watching this following the headline, my intention was to look for holes in the EV argument, yes I am a EV/climate sceptic. That stopped when you said why you were in Thailand. I mentioned on an earlier video, I lost my wife to Cancer 3 years ago. Your wife's health is far more important than any EV discussion, I truly hope whatever treatment she is having is successful. Best wishes to both of you.
You don't stop being a skeptic out of sympathy for cancer, it has to be because of what is said, of the evidence. If that isn't enough for you then remember that ICE is a technology of the industrial revolution. Isnt it time we move on? When the first cars appeared in the early 1900s, there were a lot of skeptics too and it disrupted a huge sector of horse related jobs ranging from breeding, feeding, sheltering, equipment and cart manufacturing. No need to worry, it will work out in the end.
TH-cam channel NOW YOU KNOW has been saying all of this for years now. In fact they have an excellent mini series sort of documentary that describes every step of how and why the unfolding of all of these events will happen and go into great detail on the changes in society and city layouts. It's fascinating.
I used to watch them for the first two or three years. Then they started getting quite negative and began to think they knew better than Tesla what to do. Hubris in the extreme, I unsubscribed. You're right about how good their thoughts on future transport were though, that was really well done.
@@munggebrot So who pays for the cost of building the generators and also the decommissioning, would that be you via taxes, rather than through the cost of the electricity . Maybe other countries add these costs to the price of generation
Yet another great video Sam. Was nice meeting you at fully charged Sydney. From the 1970s I have been experimenting with power adoption like fitting a fan to a car alternator to give us power to our static caravan but that was in the UK but now I live in Australia it's so much easier 9 years ago we fitted solar panels and I can assure they have paid for themselves many times over now I have a battery as well. It keeps power bills to a minimum. We do hope the cancer treatment is working well. Keep smiling everyone
Love Tony Seba. I first posted his stuff to my Facebook friends in 2017. People seeing my post still can't seem to wrap their heads around the extent of the change coming between now and 2030.
This guy's a paid propagandist, but the banks that own western governments love him, so expect his channel to grow larger. The least expensive functioning EV in my area of Minnesota is a 2017 Tesla Model S 100D for $39,900. The least expensive functional ICE car is 33X times cheaper. The difference in price will have to be borrowed from a bank, which produces nothing but misery and debt. The conversion to EVs is another large step down the path to rentier serfdom hell. "You will own nothing, and you will be happy" -The WEF
I am interested in much deeper dives into cars as a service. How many subscriptions per robotaxi? How many miles before you get throttled in a month. Can they replace taxis and Uber? Yes. Will they displace more cars in cities? Sure. What happens at thanksgiving and Xmass when everyone suddenly wants to drive at the same time? How much overcapacity is going to just sit around at other times? Do they actually replace cars or just provide virtual cars for the peasantry? Hopefully no homeless, the smell would be bad and the San Francisco ones will pee and poop in the car.
Living in Thailand and having CLL I carried out intravenous vitamin C treatments about 3 years ago. I am not sure whether or not this was a cure but my blood count was normal sometime after the treatment. My GP gave me 10 years from diagnosis and it’s been 15 years now and blood count is still normal. That treatment was with Absolute Health in Chiang Mai with Dr Wittawatt. Of course good diet helps alao I wish you and wife the best in your endeavour here in Thailand.
Brilliant video. He's spot on, cars spend 99% of their life on the driveway, and if a robo taxi can pick my up from the pub let's do it! Probably worth noting that my grandmother was born in 1896, in London ,there were no cars then.
I've been following Tony and this stuff since 2017 and I find the speed breathtaking. I regularly talk to folks on the street who still think EVs are just nice looking golf carts. They are completely unprepared for the changes they will see. From their perspective it will appear to have come out of nowhere.
I talk to my friends they are dismissive of EVs. I say "get some TSLA." They say "the cooperation is coming" They say "solar and wind are fails because the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow". In 3 to 4 years people will be wandering around with blank faces as they see what was once their world falling away.
Agree. Tony and Peter Zeihan are my preferred fortune tellers, because they can see all the pieces accurately, and they draw supremely accurate conclusions.
In my country, Uber is already significantly lower than owning an automobile, a trip in the city is usually less than 7-8 USD, I don’t see the new car market crashing. I don’t think consumers are rational when buying cars, this is the reason why you can sell a 1k purse or a 300 sneaker.
Tony Seba is like secret information... Have been watching him for years. (Edit: it almost seems like some companies watched Tony Seba and decided to make it come true. They set their goal to what Tony predicted - why?, because it was a good aspirational goal, and actually it turned out to be an achievable prediction so why not? Also such a thing keeps hope alive when people see the future is actually coming true.)
It appears that none of the Japanese legacy auto makers have been watching Tony Seba, as they are at least 5-10 years behind Tesla & the Chinese EV makers. Japan is at serious risk of losing its entire auto industry, and that would lead to their economic collapse.
I like your reminder about the benefits of car sharing! I have a small EV that cannot go on many of the rough roads near where I live. I would love to have an AWD EV with better clearance, but cannot afford one. I would love to be able to rent one when needed. I don't need a car everyday or even every week. A couple of years ago I considered listing my car on TURO, but the app would not let me charge enough to cover my costs. It is too bad we don't have better ways to share other things too, such as tools, and recreational equipment.
Why would you buy a car when you can get a car ride for less than your insurance per year? As long as you live near a city and there are ride services available, it would be a huge waste of money to spend it on car that sits in your garage 95% of the time.
An instant robotaxi for everyone for 100 bucks per month? Very very hard to believe for me, this kind of service must be considerably more expensive than this.
@@flubalubaful if you are in a rural area that may be the case but Uber usually only takes between 4-12 minutes to get a ride. Once the service scales wait times will be insignificant.
I've spent a good majority of my life working on traditional fuel powered vehicles and equipment and it has been frustrating to say the least ' I have long awaited a time like this although I'm still somewhat concerned with the high tech rather than analog systems
The cost of coal, petrol, natural gas are pretty much next to nothing now. The high costs are largely in taxes. What will SWB's version of this look like?
I've been watching Tony Seba since 2010. Whenever I'd get really down about climate change, I'd cheer myself up with a Tony Seba video or book. By ordinary standards for tech predictions, namely completely and consistently wrong, Tony Seba's predictions have been 100% correct, amazingly so FSD may fall outside the Seba technology disruption framework, or it may not. It's a tough nut to crack, but we will get it done in a decade. That will blow the top off the industry even if we make a 100% transition to EVs which almost certainly will. It will blow the top off an inudstry that's already had its top blown off by EVs. FSD is another disruption, connected to EVs but really separate from it. Read Adam Dorr's excellent new book BRIGHTER.
Imagine if it was in just 5 years: just when the few survivors of the EV transition manage to get some profits to pay for the massive debts they contracted to manage it, suddenly, the demand for ANY car without FSD collapses, far faster than the ICE age ended. I'm personally amazed that NO ONE contracted Tesla yet to install their hardware 4 on their own cars. They are getting extremely wrong/incompetent by just not looking/believing in obvious and widely available industry disrupting facts twice in just a decade and a half. Speak about mindblowing incompetence.
The only fly, I can see in the ointment is all the potholes here in the UK. You would have to be Maverick to avoid the bloody things. Honestly, some of them look like opencast mines
Tony Seba was absolutely correct in his long-term predictions. I was skeptical about some of his numbers, but he hit the nail on the head on almost every single point.
There are three major hurdles for vehicle electrification: Firstly, the minerals required to manufacture them don't exist in sufficient abundance. EV production will hit a brick wall until better battery technology arrives. Secondly, in order to charge all these EVs we'll have to generate more than twice as much electricity as we do now. Jokes like wind turbines and solar panels cannot fill that gap and once again they'd need batteries to make grids stable. Such battery technology does not exist yet. Lastly, we'll need to replace or overlay the entire power grid to support all this additional power demand. Large high voltage transformers have a long backorder, of approximately 30 years! So no. It's not going to happen.
Tesla dojo and AI are going to make stop signs and traffic lights obsolete when cars can see each other and talk to each other. There’s no need for stoplights stop signs anymore and it’s gonna help traffic flow so much faster and better and no one’s talking about it.
I disagree. FSD cars can stop and go when the other cars are in the camera range. But the traffic flow is a different story. The traffic lights, stop signs, and yield signs ..etc .. are needed, in my opinion.
I think Teslas already there.. I mean their drivers barely stop and have almost been ran over by the terrible Tesla drivers. Most times I see a crash a Tesla is involved 😂🎉
It's Tony Seba's prediction vs Jevon's Paradox. With cheaper transportation, more it will be personally utilized. The only problem with subscription service is if the ride charged individually, per person, families will own a vehicle I think due to Jevon's Paradox. Individuals will most likely utilize the Robotaxi.
One problem… China dominates battery production Which encompasses the entire supply chain from raw materials to cell manufacturing, and its influence extends globally. This position gives China a strategic advantage in the growing market for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage solutions.
I remember 4 years ago (around August 2019) when I told my friend Tesla would sell 2 million vehicles in 2023. They had just done 245k..(2018) . i told them 2027 there would be very few new gas car sales... I had just watched Tony Seba... my mind was blown but I was convinced. My friend told me they dont know anyone who wants an EV and that they are too expensive for most people. I told them about cost declines and they thought i was insane for thinking costs would go down so much so fast... well... here we are and Tesla just might do 2m... and so many people are buying EVs.
6.5 years. According to ourworld in data - world energy profile; it still is about 80% fossil fuel and 10% nuclear, 8% hydro (no real change over 20 years) Solar 1-2% Wind 2-3% after 20 years of expansion.The idea of shifting 80% of the energy consumption onto the grid clealy would suggest you must increase the 20% existing non fossil fuel by 5x - While you might add to those; renewables won't grow to even 25% in 6.5 years.
Hey Sam, Wishing your wife great success with her treatment - hang in there, my friend. Excellent report as usual, and I agree with Tony's insight. Predictions are interesting, but the facts are undeniable. All the best to you and your family.
Yes of course you're right. All car manufacturer's CEO's are completely oblivious to what the competition is doing. REALLY! They know with more information and understanding than the likes of Tony Seba what to do.
I think some may know, but what can they do? They are hired to push the business forward, make profits with the existing paradigm. But its too late! They must be just shaking their heads wondering why they ever accepted the job at the worst possible time in history for ICE vehicles. I wonder if GM/Ford/Stellantis might consider licensing the Tesla brad/technology and start making Teslas?
Clear and to the point Sam. Thanks as always. Hope your wife recovers quickly. Still would love to hear you do a comparison of Australia and say Germany in terms of solar. It seems a no brainer for Aussies. Is that the same in European countries where there may not be near the same amount of sun. Saw this new tech, solar fencing. Could be interesting.
Auto Parts "Stores" probably can, but might not see the advantage of, adding things like D-I-Y Solar, Wind, & Micro Hydro Power Products, for sale, as well as EVSE's (Level 1 & Level 2 EV Chargers)! Other ideas might be good for them, too! Like Home Energy Battery Storage Systems!
Economies of scale will ensure that power generation will always be grid-scale. Only subsidies allow homes to generate, but the cost is 5 times that of grid scale
I live in Thailand (YT'r as well;) and just bought a car, not a new car, an older car for say 3 years. That's my estimate of how long it will be before EV production in Thailand ramps up & tax breaks/lower costs plus increased charging infrastructure. One can already drive from Chiang Mai to Phuket with an EV & easily charge up along the way. 3 years from now, EV's like BYD Seagull (11K usd/400km range) will be the norm and charging points literally everywhere. Will miss the roar of a V8, just not the fumes (nor the 2000 moving parts vs EV's avg 20;) Very best wishes to you and your wife and may you charge ahead together well into the future. STL
I think there is a problem with the no personal ownership of cars idea. Perhaps it would make sense for folks in large urban areas who have access to many forms of public transportation. But for those of us in small towns or rural areas, I don't think it would work. There would not be enough demand to support a fleet of vehicles and if there or only a few or they had to travel a long way for a single customer, it would cost a lot more than a couple of hundred dollars a month.
$100 a month is far too low, unless you are self driving a small, old car for 3 days per month. One cannot ignore the labour costs and profit involved with a subscription model, for daily use it wouldn't work.
In Australia the cost of Powerwall storage is $1/Wh. I paid $82K for a Tesla Model 3 LR with an 82kWh battery. That means I paid market value for the battery and Tesla threw in a free car 🤔 Once VTG/VTG becomes available I will store my solar energy in my car for night time use and sell the excess back to the grid. The car will pay for itself over time. My point: there are other use cases for EVs beyond transport. That’s why demand won’t collapse.
@@theairstig9164 I don't care about warranty. I only use 7% of the energy each day and keep my battery between 40-60% SOC. So there is plenty of headroom for VTH without causing degradation. And if Telsa doesn't enable it then I will buy my next EV from a manufacturer who does. I have no special allegiance to Tesla.
News from Scotland, for the 1st time, Jan, Feb, and March, saw wind overtake gas power. Also, I heard a rumour that each and every large turbine is to be accessorised with its own battery in the country. Wow.
Tesla are far in the lead to a generalised solution. Others can operate in a limited way but they are all super expensive to scale. The point is to massively undercut the cost of a taxi ride with a human driver, not burn money running demonstration services at insanely greater cost.
I’ve been driving for two weeks in the West and Southwest of the US. IN California, you see lots of Teslas; only a few in other states. Everywhere, however, lots of brand new, large, expensive ICE’s that are likely to remain on the road for ten or fifteen years. I’ve also seen hundreds of gas stations, all busy in spite of the high fuel prices. As for charging stations, maybe six or seven. It seems to me that the transition - if it happens - will take a lot longer than you say.
Sam: Cybertruck will put another consideration on the table in evaluating when people weigh the decision to buy transportation as a service or actually owning the vehicle outright. The Cybertruck will bring another entire dimension to vehicle safety. This truck will be TOUGH. IF/when a collision occurs, having a Cybertruck around you will stack the deck in your favor because virtually any other vehicle you could possibly collide with will crumble in such a mechanical "contest". The grabber is that no one can know when/if you will need this extra safety margin which weighs, in my mind, as a pivotal factor for purchasing a Cybertruck outright. The Fleet Mode option could turn the asset into a net revenue producer anyway which must also be considered. For those that can pony up the purchase price an FSD Cybertruck that can be fleet enabled is the ultimate in convenience and personal safety while being financially responsible as the truck should literally pay for itself and return a not inconsiderable net yield.
It is often the case. Many legacy companies across a wide range of products, can't transition to a new form of technology. Too much baggage. R&D engineers stuck in the legacy mould, Lack of capital too invest in new technology, too much inventory in finished goods and throughout an extended supply chain. Distributors ignorant of new technology. Add to that (especially in USA) the absolute love of ICE cars and pickups. Best strategy is to spin off an EV start up which is focussed only on EVs.
@@777skypilot skypilot, you are either a poor comedian, or woefully uninformed, or hoping that a big-enough lie will go undetected. . Oh, and solar only generates electricity on average what, 30% of the time?
Hi Viking fron Spain. The question is when, how many battery plants, and production will Be ready in the next 36 monts in Europe and Us? , and When will Be ready FSD in Europe?
This is either totally right or just plain out lunacy. After seeing how close Tesla is to solving FSD I have to go with the first. The numbers of robotaxi if FSD works are insane and I'm pretty sure that FSD is going to be solved within the year. There is only one reasonable conclusion and is the first, this guy is spot on. Im paying almost $1,000 for 3 cars between a lease, financing and insurance (one lease 295mo, one finance 315mo, one paid off) and 400mo insurance. If you tell me I can pay $300 a month for unlimited ride-sharing for my whole family I'll do it in a heartbeat.
He’s referring to the great reset - own nothing and be happy mantra, 75% drop in car sales and thus ownership because it’s deliberately made prohibitive - 15 minute cities and use a robo taxi instead anyone?
I agree private transportation will change massively when full automation is cracked. They will be much like your mobile phone tariff. Miles per month, type, size and level of luxury will dictate your cost. Order on the app and the vehicle of your choice will roll up and take you where you want. The effects of this are enormous. No more UBER, taxis, busses and maybe even passenger trains. No cars parked outside your work or home for 95% of their life, freeing up huge tracts of land, maybe for solar panels. Much fewer cars needed as they will be used 100% of their available time once serviced and charged. I suspect rather than being stationary charged the cars will return to a central point and have the battery packs switched for charged ones. Personal cars will be those who want to pay for the privilege. Geopolitics, car manufacturing, defence spending on protection far away oil reserves and more. The world is undergoing a massive and fast accelerating change.
I wish it was true about renewables. The dunkelflaute in Europe this year has shown the risks of intermittent power. Until grid systems are able to store, say, a week's renewable output cheaply, they will need to keep a fleet of non-renewable generators on standby - at huge cost. It's like car rental in the US: impressively cheap until the insurance cost is added.
You’re right, storage will be a challenge, It’s unlikely batters are going to be scaleable and it’s not clear that hydrogen will fill the gap either. Maybe 80/90% renewable in Europe, it will take some time to drive out that last rump of fossil fuels.
10:00 "...annual auto sales will drop by 75%...": I think they should. But if they "would" they "would have by now". The "transportation as a service" would remove all those vehicles from people's driveways. But without robo-drivers transportation as a service can't work. If it could, it would be working right now...and have been working for my whole lifetime (80 years). To the contrary, taxis and busses have virtually gone out of existence (as alternatives to my travel needs) in my lifetime.
If RoboCars happen (..JonnyCab?) this will impact generation, EV charging and roads. Taxis do many _empty_ journeys to get from last hire to new hire. Time on the road, not parked. This needs kWh = more generation .. and increases wear.
I mean if we switch from fuel base trucks to eletric trucks (assuming they can make one) that lowers the price of transport - thus more localization can happen. Let alone means cheaper prices across the board. Alos been a big shift from wanting to drives in the EU to more bike + walking. I think some cities in the US are also seeing the light that it might be better to switch over to the same idea. I mean if that happen that be what, another 16k in every pocket (500-1k$ for an Ebike) + another 50 to 100$ in shopping as well per month.
I hope everyone is ok with government shutting down your car if they think you done something they think is a no no😊. Interesting times ahead. I will keep an old car as backup.
Seba was talking about full automation which still barely exists and Tesla is being sued for advertising their cars as self driving when they're anything but. The full automation idea is a wet dream which seamed real for a while but turned out to be a damp patch. A big part of his prediction is based on full autonomous, which he has wrong. He also thinks that because EVs last longer people will drive them for longer so new car sales will drop. When has that ever happened with any tech? People swop to new models every four years because they want new, even with ICE they don't drive them into the ground and they won't with EVs.
Sam, I just heard Wisconsin farmers saying that windmills have a low frequency (inaudible - 40 Hz) noise that makes cows not give milk and I never hear about bird strikes which I think are significant. What are your comments?
I just can't afford these EV's currently, especially as a "second" car (Chevy Bolt) - I don't believe most people can either. It's not that it's not a good idea, but the buy in price is just too high. There are also a lot of unknows about used EV's as well. How long will the battery last? The cost to replace a Model 3 battery is over $15K - which would put me back into a very economical ICE car, they are just too expensive.
You may have overshot the mark. EV's will continue to get cheaper as more competition to Tesla comes out and technology advances.There is also the used car market. My 2015 MS 70D was 94K as a new car. I picked it up for 30K last year. One can buy a used Model 3 for 25K all day long, practically everywhere. Shops are replacing cells at 500 bucks a section already. you dont need to replace the entire battery. Replace the section that went bad. EV's are very affordable right now. I can get a newer Model 3 for less than an Accord and never pay for gas again. That makes it significantly cheaper to operate than the Honda, which is a really good car. Type in used Model 3 for under 30K and see how many pull up. I pulled up several hundred.
@rko1914 I have been looking every day since January, the cheapest model 3 RWD with 100K miles is still over $30K, and it's at 8% interest - I haven't seen anything for $25 K yet. I have noticed when i do a VIN search, some of the Teslas have more than 20 different owners (!) I have never seen anything like this before
How many people run their cars into the ground? Not many. How many people change their cars because they want something new, not that they need to? Same goes with clothes and mobile phones and loads of other things. Tastes, needs, fashion are always changing and marketing influences all our decisions, like it or not. For rhis reason I don't see us giving up the ultimate freedom of owning and changing our cars gives us.
Mr Viking hope your wife will be healthy soon. Try medicinal mushrooms extracts also, like Reshi, turkey tail, shiitake, etc...they have a lot of antitumoral properties. Best Regards
The one thing about Robo taxis that I have yet to get my head around is that the use of them requires that they not only drive people to their destination but also drive themselves to the point of departure. This may be a non issue in densely populated urban environments where distances may be relatively short but in more rural settings where many of us still reside and are more spread out geographically , it can add to the energy spent transporting people from point A to B as I see it.
You may be right, but there's nothing to prevent rural residents from owning cars while city dwellers use Transportation As A Service. Think of horse-and-buggy days; country folk owned horses, city slickers rented horses and carriages from the local livery stable on an as-needed basis.
Sam, you said in the video that you would put a link to the podcast in the description but I can’t find it. And a search on TH-cam didn’t come up with anything either
Listening to these guys that predict the future is interesting. However reality often defies the most logical of these predictions. For example the advent of tape players and the local video hire store was said to be the death knel of movie theatres. That was totally logical but never happened because forecasters failed to appreciate that consumers liked going out and therefore watching a video at home was not equivalent to watching the same movie at a theatre. Now the video store has come and gone and movie theatres are still with us. There are lots of unknowns although it is fun to postulate as you have done in this presentation.
I ha similar advice to rent a House instead of buying one, I thought that was an idiotic idea and so didn't listen and bought a $36,000 Home, sold and bought a better home every few years till now, I am in a $900,000 home that costs me nothing to own as it's Brick and Tile lowset. Had I listened to the fool that told me to rent and save, I would be paying $550 a week in rent, such clever advice lol. WIll be the same with an EV, once I pay for my EV, it will no longer cost anything to drive, the savings in no fuel costs will save my Wife and I about $5.000 to $7,500 a year and that is with out the cost of fuel increasing to past $2 a litre, which happened for a couple months and now back down to $1.70, but will go back up as it always does. At $2+ a litre a normal 60 litre gas tank ICE will cost on average $100 a week to drive, some people I know do a little more than 500k a week, like my younger brother, he refills twice a week as he is a Real Estate salesman. Once petrol reaches the $2 mark again it won't go back down as EV's become more and more the normal drive, Fossil fuels will have to raise their prices to keep alive. If you lose 30% of your customers, you also lose 30% profits and Shareholders start to get upset. By 2030 EV's will be the only car that people buy and so the Fossil fuel Industry will hike the cost of fuel to the point, most people won't be able to afford to drive an ICE. I am not sure what the tipping point is for a Gas station to no longer be viable, but I am guessing at maybe 40% loss of customers would be the start of many closing their doors and have ne resale value as all you can show on the books is a steady decline in sales, same as ICE car sellers. There is going to be a huge disruption in the very near future sa far as Gas stations, in Australia over 90% of cars are ICE so all is good for the Service Stations, once we start getting Chinese imports under $35KAU or Tesla bring out a SUB $35KAU version, it will be the beginning of the end for ICE and Petrol Stations :)
MaaS in sustainable transport thinking includes bus, train and hire (e) bikes in urban areas but tends to steer away from robotaxi. Past novel concepts like SaaS are here as cloud based Software services.
I want my own vehicle. Why should i have to call someone else yo drive me??? In the US there's no way we'll ever give up our vehicles. People in the bigger cities don't have cars but the rest of us want a vehicle.
Hi, yes for some in cities I can see this happening, including wireless charging so it can charge itself. For most though EV just replaces ICE. They still have their car it’s just not ICE. Your car will also become an integral part of your home with bidirectional car charging. 80 kw hr home batter in your car, filling up from solar and providing power when you need it. Enphase already have this on sale now. Take care M.
IMO TAAS is not going to help me much. e.g. I am soon doing a 9,000km return journey from Melbourne VIC to Cairns Qld in my Model Y. I can't see ANY TAAS being able to transport me, my wife, our Ebikes etc etc. We need to be able to make side trips / detours as we see fit - TAAS will not work. In the city, sure it might work, but I'm not holding my breath on that either.
@@greghudson9717 First, nobody said that it was going to replace vacations or road trips, which is what you seem to be describing. That said, if you're currently doing this trip in a Model Y. . . why do you say that this could never be done as an automated service? The Model Y is the very sort of car that will first start doing service as an autonomous vehicle. And why would you say that "side trips" are a deal breaker? Are they a problem if you rent a car from Hertz or Budget and want to take a side trip? If you program a trip today using Google Maps, is it set in stone?
I think most cars, that have regular maintenance, are easily good for 200-300k miles. Not km but miles. I have friends with 10 year old Chevy’s, not the most reliable, with 250k on the odometer. My latest Honda is 10 years old and had 150k miles on it when I got it. I didn’t think twice about it. I figure I’ll get another 150k out of it before anything major needs to be fixed.
Nope. It’ll be unsupported in under five years as the manufacturers and suppliers of ICE equipment see their markets disappear. They won’t stay open to keep your Honda supplied with parts😂
"In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most. Time taken in stocking energy to build an energy system, adding to it the time taken in building the system will always be longer than the entire useful lifetime of the system. No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores. No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it. This universal truth applies to all systems. Energy, like time, flows from past to future".
![[LIVE] BABYMONSTER(베이비몬스터) - DRIP | 두시탈출 컬투쇼](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/UG05pxLGwzc/mqdefault.jpg)
This was one of your most important videos Sam. The foundation of energy production is changing, and very few understand the enormous societal benefit probabilities coming during the next seven years. Well done - RESPECT!
What benefits exactly? Fossil fuels have brought the whole world into a better living situation. Better crop growth, less malnutrition, better production, cheaper energy. Everything you see around you, your cars, computers, clothes, food, plastics, etc, are derived from fossil fuels. So what exactly will be the enormous societal benefits in the next seven years? Energy will be more expensive once government stops supporting Green energy, people in developing nations will suffer and none of this has any real proven reason to take place.
The foundation of energy is not changing. Coal fuels everything even EVS.
110%
what an idiot statement... EVs are bad for the environment. and are not very dependable. all these EV makers and Tesla will go bankrupt
100%. I like EV’s but people who are so in on EV will be everything have no idea how many products need petroleum.
Prayers for your wife and wishing her a very successful treatment! Glad she has great support, stay strong !
Discovered Tony Seba in 2016, which led me to TSLA. Took a test drive (it's free), was so blown over, I bought my daughter some shares. So interesting to see it all start to unfold as Tony predicted. Next thing is Precision Fermentation!
Precision fermentation to the moon.
In 2020, I asked why LFP was not being used in cars. The question is why has it taken so long to dump the ternary type cells?
@@Dave5843-d9m not as energy dense!!
TSLA stock has pretty much doubled over the last six months. Now it's getting close to being worth what I paid for it. I have 639 shares.
@@markumbers5362 percision ferments will have to join the que, I have been cooking "meat tasting" dishes using mushrooms for ages.
Tough to tell the difference.
When Nuclear was first being rolled out the thinkers were saying that the cost of electricity would be so low the supply would not need to be metered. We all know how that worked out.
There is no free lunch, Sam.
Yeah your never gonna get rid of the energy wranglers.
Oil companies made sure that nuclear never took off. They got the environmentalist to do their job for them. It's different with solar because your roof won't cause a nuclear meltdown.
Renewables will never be free, but their prices have been dropping significantly over the last 20 years. After the initial costs are recovered from energy sold, then there are maintenance costs and replacement costs every 30 years, which are negligible when compared to how much energy is produced.
The beauty of renewables is that once the initial investment has been made, the source of the energy production itself is free, unlike oil, which needs to be drilled/refined, and transported and coal needs to be dug, and transported.
Calculations are done to compare the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and right NOW, the cheapest is onshore wind, then solar, then offshore wind. Renewables are the future.
Tony Seba’s presentations were very influential for me too. Very excited that this disruption is gathering steam. I can’t afford an EV yet, but my lawn mower and power tools have been disrupted 😊
Brilliantly said 😂🤙👏
Haha mine 2!
I have battery powered weed whacker and leaf blower... Works very well, it's quiet and I just plug in the battery to recharge. I can't actually imagine using... what, gasoline?
Haha mine 3! and chain saw.
All my tools, drills, lawn mower are electric. And im so happy with them. Cant afford ev yet so i will just wait till it gets way cheaper in 5 years time.
I remember my rich friends playing samsung or iphone and im just watching on the side during early days of smartphone. Now i was able to buy so cheap smartphone brands anywhere. Patience is important and time will come for us to get these cheaper ev soon.
Viking, thank you for spreading the joy, the love, the great forward looking optimism. I agree with your bright appraisal for our future! Love/light for your wive’s plight.😢❤
You need a prnoun.
Hello Sam, I started watching this following the headline, my intention was to look for holes in the EV argument, yes I am a EV/climate sceptic. That stopped when you said why you were in Thailand. I mentioned on an earlier video, I lost my wife to Cancer 3 years ago. Your wife's health is far more important than any EV discussion, I truly hope whatever treatment she is having is successful. Best wishes to both of you.
You don't stop being a skeptic out of sympathy for cancer, it has to be because of what is said, of the evidence. If that isn't enough for you then remember that ICE is a technology of the industrial revolution. Isnt it time we move on? When the first cars appeared in the early 1900s, there were a lot of skeptics too and it disrupted a huge sector of horse related jobs ranging from breeding, feeding, sheltering, equipment and cart manufacturing. No need to worry, it will work out in the end.
Must watch information! This could be your best video yet. Sam, keep up the great work!
TH-cam channel NOW YOU KNOW has been saying all of this for years now. In fact they have an excellent mini series sort of documentary that describes every step of how and why the unfolding of all of these events will happen and go into great detail on the changes in society and city layouts. It's fascinating.
I think there are better channels.
Newcomers compared to Tony Seba. Good channel though.
I used to watch them for the first two or three years. Then they started getting quite negative and began to think they knew better than Tesla what to do. Hubris in the extreme, I unsubscribed. You're right about how good their thoughts on future transport were though, that was really well done.
Scotland has 120 % renewable electricity but has the highest domestic electricity costs in Europe
It’s the north end of an island.
But the politicians are worse than useless
So we pay €0.33 per kw (Zurich, Switzerland)! Almost no solar panels on house roofs...
@@munggebrot So who pays for the cost of building the generators and also the decommissioning, would that be you via taxes, rather than through the cost of the electricity .
Maybe other countries add these costs to the price of generation
Yet another great video Sam. Was nice meeting you at fully charged Sydney. From the 1970s I have been experimenting with power adoption like fitting a fan to a car alternator to give us power to our static caravan but that was in the UK but now I live in Australia it's so much easier 9 years ago we fitted solar panels and I can assure they have paid for themselves many times over now I have a battery as well. It keeps power bills to a minimum. We do hope the cancer treatment is working well. Keep smiling everyone
Love Tony Seba. I first posted his stuff to my Facebook friends in 2017. People seeing my post still can't seem to wrap their heads around the extent of the change coming between now and 2030.
Great info as usual Sam. I have come to rely on you as a source of information because you are very good at what you do. Thank you.
5th like
This guy's a paid propagandist, but the banks that own western governments love him, so expect his channel to grow larger. The least expensive functioning EV in my area of Minnesota is a 2017 Tesla Model S 100D for $39,900. The least expensive functional ICE car is 33X times cheaper. The difference in price will have to be borrowed from a bank, which produces nothing but misery and debt. The conversion to EVs is another large step down the path to rentier serfdom hell.
"You will own nothing, and you will be happy"
-The WEF
Seba is a very important thinker and prognosticator. Thank you for helping to keep us up to date on his views of the future.
I am interested in much deeper dives into cars as a service. How many subscriptions per robotaxi? How many miles before you get throttled in a month.
Can they replace taxis and Uber? Yes. Will they displace more cars in cities? Sure.
What happens at thanksgiving and Xmass when everyone suddenly wants to drive at the same time? How much overcapacity is going to just sit around at other times?
Do they actually replace cars or just provide virtual cars for the peasantry? Hopefully no homeless, the smell would be bad and the San Francisco ones will pee and poop in the car.
Living in Thailand and having CLL I carried out intravenous vitamin C treatments about 3 years ago. I am not sure whether or not this was a cure but my blood count was normal sometime after the treatment. My GP gave me 10 years from diagnosis and it’s been 15 years now and blood count is still normal. That treatment was with Absolute Health in Chiang Mai with Dr Wittawatt. Of course good diet helps alao
I wish you and wife the best in your endeavour here in Thailand.
Hopefully you got a few months left before things go downhill quickly.
No reason to get exotic treatment for CLL, when there are several frontline treatments now available, such Venetaclax and Ibrutinib.
Brilliant video. He's spot on, cars spend 99% of their life on the driveway, and if a robo taxi can pick my up from the pub let's do it! Probably worth noting that my grandmother was born in 1896, in London ,there were no cars then.
Absolutely love Seba, been following him for over 3 years.
I've been following Tony and this stuff since 2017 and I find the speed breathtaking. I regularly talk to folks on the street who still think EVs are just nice looking golf carts. They are completely unprepared for the changes they will see. From their perspective it will appear to have come out of nowhere.
I talk to my friends they are dismissive of EVs. I say "get some TSLA." They say "the cooperation is coming" They say "solar and wind are fails because the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow". In 3 to 4 years people will be wandering around with blank faces as they see what was once their world falling away.
Agree. Tony and Peter Zeihan are my preferred fortune tellers, because they can see all the pieces accurately, and they draw supremely accurate conclusions.
I first came across Tony Seba after watching the Australian film 2040. i have tried to watch everything Rethinkx puts out.
In my country, Uber is already significantly lower than owning an automobile, a trip in the city is usually less than 7-8 USD, I don’t see the new car market crashing. I don’t think consumers are rational when buying cars, this is the reason why you can sell a 1k purse or a 300 sneaker.
Tony Seba is like secret information... Have been watching him for years.
(Edit: it almost seems like some companies watched Tony Seba and decided to make it come true. They set their goal to what Tony predicted - why?, because it was a good aspirational goal, and actually it turned out to be an achievable prediction so why not? Also such a thing keeps hope alive when people see the future is actually coming true.)
It appears that none of the Japanese legacy auto makers have been watching Tony Seba, as they are at least 5-10 years behind Tesla & the Chinese EV makers. Japan is at serious risk of losing its entire auto industry, and that would lead to their economic collapse.
I like your reminder about the benefits of car sharing! I have a small EV that cannot go on many of the rough roads near where I live. I would love to have an AWD EV with better clearance, but cannot afford one. I would love to be able to rent one when needed. I don't need a car everyday or even every week. A couple of years ago I considered listing my car on TURO, but the app would not let me charge enough to cover my costs. It is too bad we don't have better ways to share other things too, such as tools, and recreational equipment.
Why would you buy a car when you can get a car ride for less than your insurance per year? As long as you live near a city and there are ride services available, it would be a huge waste of money to spend it on car that sits in your garage 95% of the time.
You obviously have never had the freedom of having a car, and it is cheaper for me to use my car than catch a bus or train these days.
An instant robotaxi for everyone for 100 bucks per month? Very very hard to believe for me, this kind of service must be considerably more expensive than this.
All of your prior experience involved having to pay a person. People are expensive!
@@Thisoldhiker Yeah, I would recommend against having empty cars drive around. Empty cars will sit until called upon.
I think you are right, maybe double.
When I need to go somewhere I don't want to wait half an hour for a ride, I could drive there and back in the time it takes for a taxi to arrive.
@@flubalubaful if you are in a rural area that may be the case but Uber usually only takes between 4-12 minutes to get a ride. Once the service scales wait times will be insignificant.
Tony Seba is a Rockstar!
Pretty much came true what he predicted in 2013!
Insane accuracy! ✌️
No he's not a rock star, he's a time traveller!!
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BOOM! 💥
I have followed Tony Seba for years now and believe he is totally correct on his predictions. Thanks for featuring him.
I've spent a good majority of my life working on traditional fuel powered vehicles and equipment and it has been frustrating to say the least ' I have long awaited a time like this although I'm still somewhat concerned with the high tech rather than analog systems
Your wife just received some of the best medicine in this latest post. One of your best presentations ever.
The cost of coal, petrol, natural gas are pretty much next to nothing now. The high costs are largely in taxes. What will SWB's version of this look like?
I've been watching Tony Seba since 2010. Whenever I'd get really down about climate change, I'd cheer myself up with a Tony Seba video or book. By ordinary standards for tech predictions, namely completely and consistently wrong, Tony Seba's predictions have been 100% correct, amazingly so FSD may fall outside the Seba technology disruption framework, or it may not. It's a tough nut to crack, but we will get it done in a decade. That will blow the top off the industry even if we make a 100% transition to EVs which almost certainly will. It will blow the top off an inudstry that's already had its top blown off by EVs. FSD is another disruption, connected to EVs but really separate from it. Read Adam Dorr's excellent new book BRIGHTER.
Imagine if it was in just 5 years: just when the few survivors of the EV transition manage to get some profits to pay for the massive debts they contracted to manage it, suddenly, the demand for ANY car without FSD collapses, far faster than the ICE age ended. I'm personally amazed that NO ONE contracted Tesla yet to install their hardware 4 on their own cars. They are getting extremely wrong/incompetent by just not looking/believing in obvious and widely available industry disrupting facts twice in just a decade and a half. Speak about mindblowing incompetence.
The only fly, I can see in the ointment is all the potholes here in the UK. You would have to be Maverick to avoid the bloody things. Honestly, some of them look like opencast mines
Me too! He deserves Soooo much respect!
@@ouethojlkjn Did youtube put your answer in the wrong thread again? Or I totally missed your point.
@@FlorestanTrement autonomous driving needs to be able to navigate suspension smashing pot holes.
Nice one Viking. One of your best so far!
Tony Seba was absolutely correct in his long-term predictions. I was skeptical about some of his numbers, but he hit the nail on the head on almost every single point.
There are three major hurdles for vehicle electrification:
Firstly, the minerals required to manufacture them don't exist in sufficient abundance. EV production will hit a brick wall until better battery technology arrives.
Secondly, in order to charge all these EVs we'll have to generate more than twice as much electricity as we do now. Jokes like wind turbines and solar panels cannot fill that gap and once again they'd need batteries to make grids stable. Such battery technology does not exist yet.
Lastly, we'll need to replace or overlay the entire power grid to support all this additional power demand. Large high voltage transformers have a long backorder, of approximately 30 years!
So no. It's not going to happen.
Minerals are recycled, the vehicles provide virtual grid and stabilize infrastructure.
@@777skypilot best of luck with that! LOL
I say let the chips fall as they may. There are too many greedy corporations!
Tesla dojo and AI are going to make stop signs and traffic lights obsolete when cars can see each other and talk to each other. There’s no need for stoplights stop signs anymore and it’s gonna help traffic flow so much faster and better and no one’s talking about it.
Yes right, and full self driving works ,like now.
I disagree. FSD cars can stop and go when the other cars are in the camera range. But the traffic flow is a different story. The traffic lights, stop signs, and yield signs ..etc .. are needed, in my opinion.
I think Teslas already there.. I mean their drivers barely stop and have almost been ran over by the terrible Tesla drivers.
Most times I see a crash a Tesla is involved 😂🎉
That’s a long way of in the future.
I agree - won't need speed limits either, there will come a time when cars will be incapable of crashing even if you tried to
Totally agree. I have been driving evs for 8 years and won't go back...
It's Tony Seba's prediction vs Jevon's Paradox. With cheaper transportation, more it will be personally utilized. The only problem with subscription service is if the ride charged individually, per person, families will own a vehicle I think due to Jevon's Paradox. Individuals will most likely utilize the Robotaxi.
Resturants will pay to drive customers.
Tony hasn’t been wrong yet. Not for 15 years…
He is right!
I agree- he has not been wrong with the disruption predictions but some of the timing was itself disrupted/delayed by Covid and the pandemic
Please explain to me how solar and wind are going to provide all of our power without improving efficiency at least 1000%
@@Roboticpycotic efficiency is not a problem. It’s all about cost per Kw. Both batteries and panels are dropping in price.
@@whowhy9023 ok great. How much sq km are we going to have to cover with panels for all of our needs? 50,000? 500,000?
totally agree... have felt for a long time that the next disruption will be energy. Energy creation and transport.
One problem… China dominates battery production
Which encompasses the entire supply chain from raw materials to cell manufacturing, and its influence extends globally.
This position gives China a strategic advantage in the growing market for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage solutions.
Robocars will work in the cities but not elsewhere. Very different experience using an Uber in low population areas.
Transport as a service will work in cities, but not elsewhere.
I remember 4 years ago (around August 2019) when I told my friend Tesla would sell 2 million vehicles in 2023. They had just done 245k..(2018) . i told them 2027 there would be very few new gas car sales... I had just watched Tony Seba... my mind was blown but I was convinced. My friend told me they dont know anyone who wants an EV and that they are too expensive for most people. I told them about cost declines and they thought i was insane for thinking costs would go down so much so fast... well... here we are and Tesla just might do 2m... and so many people are buying EVs.
Love the video Electric Viking! Very interesting
You are awesome. Very insightful and sensible. Best wishes to your wife and family Sam!
Thank you so much 😀
6.5 years. According to ourworld in data - world energy profile; it still is about 80% fossil fuel and 10% nuclear, 8% hydro (no real change over 20 years) Solar 1-2% Wind 2-3% after 20 years of expansion.The idea of shifting 80% of the energy consumption onto the grid clealy would suggest you must increase the 20% existing non fossil fuel by 5x - While you might add to those; renewables won't grow to even 25% in 6.5 years.
Hey Sam, Wishing your wife great success with her treatment - hang in there, my friend.
Excellent report as usual, and I agree with Tony's insight. Predictions are interesting, but the facts are undeniable.
All the best to you and your family.
Yes of course you're right. All car manufacturer's CEO's are completely oblivious to what the competition is doing. REALLY! They know with more information and understanding than the likes of Tony Seba what to do.
I think some may know, but what can they do? They are hired to push the business forward, make profits with the existing paradigm. But its too late! They must be just shaking their heads wondering why they ever accepted the job at the worst possible time in history for ICE vehicles. I wonder if GM/Ford/Stellantis might consider licensing the Tesla brad/technology and start making Teslas?
Clear and to the point Sam. Thanks as always. Hope your wife recovers quickly. Still would love to hear you do a comparison of Australia and say Germany in terms of solar. It seems a no brainer for Aussies. Is that the same in European countries where there may not be near the same amount of sun. Saw this new tech, solar fencing. Could be interesting.
Neils Bohr..."We are not measuring the world. We are creating it." Our thoughts create the world. Sounds like you agree. What a powerful thought.
Auto Parts "Stores" probably can, but might not see the advantage of, adding things like D-I-Y Solar, Wind, & Micro Hydro Power Products, for sale, as well as EVSE's (Level 1 & Level 2 EV Chargers)! Other ideas might be good for them, too! Like Home Energy Battery Storage Systems!
That stuff might be a better fit for a home center like a Depot or Lowes.
Economies of scale will ensure that power generation will always be grid-scale. Only subsidies allow homes to generate, but the cost is 5 times that of grid scale
I live in Thailand (YT'r as well;) and just bought a car, not a new car, an older car for say 3 years. That's my estimate of how long it will be before EV production in Thailand ramps up & tax breaks/lower costs plus increased charging infrastructure. One can already drive from Chiang Mai to Phuket with an EV & easily charge up along the way. 3 years from now, EV's like BYD Seagull (11K usd/400km range) will be the norm and charging points literally everywhere. Will miss the roar of a V8, just not the fumes (nor the 2000 moving parts vs EV's avg 20;) Very best wishes to you and your wife and may you charge ahead together well into the future. STL
I think there is a problem with the no personal ownership of cars idea. Perhaps it would make sense for folks in large urban areas who have access to many forms of public transportation. But for those of us in small towns or rural areas, I don't think it would work. There would not be enough demand to support a fleet of vehicles and if there or only a few or they had to travel a long way for a single customer, it would cost a lot more than a couple of hundred dollars a month.
There's nothing to prevent rural or semi-rural residents from continuing to own cars.
Very interesting video. If this happens what is going to happen to Tesla? Does Tony Seba have any thoughts on this?
$100 a month is far too low, unless you are self driving a small, old car for 3 days per month. One cannot ignore the labour costs and profit involved with a subscription model, for daily use it wouldn't work.
In Australia the cost of Powerwall storage is $1/Wh. I paid $82K for a Tesla Model 3 LR with an 82kWh battery. That means I paid market value for the battery and Tesla threw in a free car 🤔 Once VTG/VTG becomes available I will store my solar energy in my car for night time use and sell the excess back to the grid. The car will pay for itself over time.
My point: there are other use cases for EVs beyond transport. That’s why demand won’t collapse.
Tesla has not and WILL NOT warranty batteries used for V2G V2H or V2L
@@theairstig9164 I don't care about warranty. I only use 7% of the energy each day and keep my battery between 40-60% SOC. So there is plenty of headroom for VTH without causing degradation. And if Telsa doesn't enable it then I will buy my next EV from a manufacturer who does. I have no special allegiance to Tesla.
My 70D has FUSC and our home is also solar with a L2 Charging Station. I can forsee many having a similar set up in the very near future.
@@rko1914 “FUSC”?
News from Scotland, for the 1st time, Jan, Feb, and March, saw wind overtake gas power. Also, I heard a rumour that each and every large turbine is to be accessorised with its own battery in the country. Wow.
Yes love those Scottish turbines paid for with English subsidies.
👍 Enjoyed this one, I'd like to hear more about the latest on autonomous vehicles on this channel. Cruise, Waymo etc
Tesla are far in the lead to a generalised solution. Others can operate in a limited way but they are all super expensive to scale. The point is to massively undercut the cost of a taxi ride with a human driver, not burn money running demonstration services at insanely greater cost.
I’ve been driving for two weeks in the West and Southwest of the US. IN California, you see lots of Teslas; only a few in other states. Everywhere, however, lots of brand new, large, expensive ICE’s that are likely to remain on the road for ten or fifteen years. I’ve also seen hundreds of gas stations, all busy in spite of the high fuel prices. As for charging stations, maybe six or seven. It seems to me that the transition - if it happens - will take a lot longer than you say.
I’ve got a model 3 and putting solar on the house but not because I believe in anthropogenic warming from emissions. I just like electric motors
This was an excellent episode. Watched it a few times. Thanks.
Evening mate its 23:32 here in the UK
Sam: Cybertruck will put another consideration on the table in evaluating when people weigh the decision to buy transportation as a service or actually owning the vehicle outright. The Cybertruck will bring another entire dimension to vehicle safety. This truck will be TOUGH. IF/when a collision occurs, having a Cybertruck around you will stack the deck in your favor because virtually any other vehicle you could possibly collide with will crumble in such a mechanical "contest". The grabber is that no one can know when/if you will need this extra safety margin which weighs, in my mind, as a pivotal factor for purchasing a Cybertruck outright. The Fleet Mode option could turn the asset into a net revenue producer anyway which must also be considered. For those that can pony up the purchase price an FSD Cybertruck that can be fleet enabled is the ultimate in convenience and personal safety while being financially responsible as the truck should literally pay for itself and return a not inconsiderable net yield.
It is often the case. Many legacy companies across a wide range of products, can't transition to a new form of technology. Too much baggage. R&D engineers stuck in the legacy mould, Lack of capital too invest in new technology, too much inventory in finished goods and throughout an extended supply chain. Distributors ignorant of new technology. Add to that (especially in USA) the absolute love of ICE cars and pickups. Best strategy is to spin off an EV start up which is focussed only on EVs.
Most banks will go down as well..
Spot on ... be disruption, but bringing power locally ... will nice to keep money and things local not fuelling greedy companies and oil parasites.
Yet today, solar and wind power are still very expensive.
Actually solar is cheaper than coal per Kwh
@@777skypilot skypilot, you are either a poor comedian, or woefully uninformed, or hoping that a big-enough lie will go undetected.
.
Oh, and solar only generates electricity on average what, 30% of the time?
Hi Viking fron Spain. The question is when, how many battery plants, and production will Be ready in the next 36 monts in Europe and Us? , and When will Be ready FSD in Europe?
good question. I think you can safely buy at least uy at least one more car on a 3 or four year PCP
My daughter lives in Reno. Battery companies and recycling companies
This is either totally right or just plain out lunacy. After seeing how close Tesla is to solving FSD I have to go with the first. The numbers of robotaxi if FSD works are insane and I'm pretty sure that FSD is going to be solved within the year. There is only one reasonable conclusion and is the first, this guy is spot on. Im paying almost $1,000 for 3 cars between a lease, financing and insurance (one lease 295mo, one finance 315mo, one paid off) and 400mo insurance. If you tell me I can pay $300 a month for unlimited ride-sharing for my whole family I'll do it in a heartbeat.
He’s referring to the great reset - own nothing and be happy mantra, 75% drop in car sales and thus ownership because it’s deliberately made prohibitive - 15 minute cities and use a robo taxi instead anyone?
I agree private transportation will change massively when full automation is cracked. They will be much like your mobile phone tariff. Miles per month, type, size and level of luxury will dictate your cost. Order on the app and the vehicle of your choice will roll up and take you where you want. The effects of this are enormous. No more UBER, taxis, busses and maybe even passenger trains. No cars parked outside your work or home for 95% of their life, freeing up huge tracts of land, maybe for solar panels. Much fewer cars needed as they will be used 100% of their available time once serviced and charged. I suspect rather than being stationary charged the cars will return to a central point and have the battery packs switched for charged ones. Personal cars will be those who want to pay for the privilege. Geopolitics, car manufacturing, defence spending on protection far away oil reserves and more. The world is undergoing a massive and fast accelerating change.
If I want to just go for a 3 hr drive, I don't want somebody driving me around.
See, it’s weird, but I couldn’t think of anything worse I would rather be driven and watch the world go by…
@@Markcain268 i don't think cars driven by humans will die totally, it may become more of a hobby. There are enough of us around at the moment.
I wish it was true about renewables. The dunkelflaute in Europe this year has shown the risks of intermittent power. Until grid systems are able to store, say, a week's renewable output cheaply, they will need to keep a fleet of non-renewable generators on standby - at huge cost. It's like car rental in the US: impressively cheap until the insurance cost is added.
You’re right, storage will be a challenge, It’s unlikely batters are going to be scaleable and it’s not clear that hydrogen will fill the gap either. Maybe 80/90% renewable in Europe, it will take some time to drive out that last rump of fossil fuels.
10:00 "...annual auto sales will drop by 75%...": I think they should. But if they "would" they "would have by now". The "transportation as a service" would remove all those vehicles from people's driveways. But without robo-drivers transportation as a service can't work. If it could, it would be working right now...and have been working for my whole lifetime (80 years). To the contrary, taxis and busses have virtually gone out of existence (as alternatives to my travel needs) in my lifetime.
If RoboCars happen (..JonnyCab?) this will impact generation, EV charging and roads. Taxis do many _empty_ journeys to get from last hire to new hire. Time on the road, not parked. This needs kWh = more generation .. and increases wear.
I mean if we switch from fuel base trucks to eletric trucks (assuming they can make one) that lowers the price of transport - thus more localization can happen. Let alone means cheaper prices across the board. Alos been a big shift from wanting to drives in the EU to more bike + walking. I think some cities in the US are also seeing the light that it might be better to switch over to the same idea. I mean if that happen that be what, another 16k in every pocket (500-1k$ for an Ebike) + another 50 to 100$ in shopping as well per month.
I hope everyone is ok with government shutting down your car if they think you done something they think is a no no😊. Interesting times ahead. I will keep an old car as backup.
FSD, Robo-Taxis will allow maintenance at scale in dedicated refurbishing facilities.
He is very correct, there is a vast oversupply of vehicles in the world
I am looking forward to this transition and am hopeful for my grandchildren to have a comfortable life with more autonomy and without money worries.
Seba was talking about full automation which still barely exists and Tesla is being sued for advertising their cars as self driving when they're anything but. The full automation idea is a wet dream which seamed real for a while but turned out to be a damp patch. A big part of his prediction is based on full autonomous, which he has wrong. He also thinks that because EVs last longer people will drive them for longer so new car sales will drop. When has that ever happened with any tech? People swop to new models every four years because they want new, even with ICE they don't drive them into the ground and they won't with EVs.
Sam, I just heard Wisconsin farmers saying that windmills have a low frequency (inaudible - 40 Hz) noise that makes cows not give milk and I never hear about bird strikes which I think are significant. What are your comments?
I just can't afford these EV's currently, especially as a "second" car (Chevy Bolt) - I don't believe most people can either. It's not that it's not a good idea, but the buy in price is just too high. There are also a lot of unknows about used EV's as well. How long will the battery last? The cost to replace a Model 3 battery is over $15K - which would put me back into a very economical ICE car, they are just too expensive.
You may have overshot the mark. EV's will continue to get cheaper as more competition to Tesla comes out and technology advances.There is also the used car market. My 2015 MS 70D was 94K as a new car. I picked it up for 30K last year. One can buy a used Model 3 for 25K all day long, practically everywhere. Shops are replacing cells at 500 bucks a section already. you dont need to replace the entire battery. Replace the section that went bad. EV's are very affordable right now. I can get a newer Model 3 for less than an Accord and never pay for gas again. That makes it significantly cheaper to operate than the Honda, which is a really good car. Type in used Model 3 for under 30K and see how many pull up. I pulled up several hundred.
@rko1914 I have been looking every day since January, the cheapest model 3 RWD with 100K miles is still over $30K, and it's at 8% interest - I haven't seen anything for $25 K yet. I have noticed when i do a VIN search, some of the Teslas have more than 20 different owners (!) I have never seen anything like this before
How many people run their cars into the ground? Not many. How many people change their cars because they want something new, not that they need to? Same goes with clothes and mobile phones and loads of other things. Tastes, needs, fashion are always changing and marketing influences all our decisions, like it or not. For rhis reason I don't see us giving up the ultimate freedom of owning and changing our cars gives us.
I have run all my cars into the ground. Sanity rules
Solar and batteries take over.
Only slowly.
Mr Viking hope your wife will be healthy soon. Try medicinal mushrooms extracts also, like Reshi, turkey tail, shiitake, etc...they have a lot of antitumoral properties. Best Regards
The one thing about Robo taxis that I have yet to get my head around is that the use of them requires that they not only drive people to their destination but also drive themselves to the point of departure. This may be a non issue in densely populated urban environments where distances may be relatively short but in more rural settings where many of us still reside and are more spread out geographically , it can add to the energy spent transporting people from point A to B as I see it.
You may be right, but there's nothing to prevent rural residents from owning cars while city dwellers use Transportation As A Service. Think of horse-and-buggy days; country folk owned horses, city slickers rented horses and carriages from the local livery stable on an as-needed basis.
Sam, you said in the video that you would put a link to the podcast in the description but I can’t find it. And a search on TH-cam didn’t come up with anything either
Listening to these guys that predict the future is interesting.
However reality often defies the most logical of these predictions.
For example the advent of tape players and the local video hire store was said to be the death knel of movie theatres. That was totally logical but never happened because forecasters failed to appreciate that consumers liked going out and therefore watching a video at home was not equivalent to watching the same movie at a theatre.
Now the video store has come and gone and movie theatres are still with us.
There are lots of unknowns although it is fun to postulate as you have done in this presentation.
Great video man - best wishes to your family
Much appreciated
I ha similar advice to rent a House instead of buying one, I thought that was an idiotic idea and so didn't listen and bought a $36,000 Home, sold and bought a better home every few years till now, I am in a $900,000 home that costs me nothing to own as it's Brick and Tile lowset.
Had I listened to the fool that told me to rent and save, I would be paying $550 a week in rent, such clever advice lol.
WIll be the same with an EV, once I pay for my EV, it will no longer cost anything to drive, the savings in no fuel costs will save my Wife and I about $5.000 to $7,500 a year and that is with out the cost of fuel increasing to past $2 a litre, which happened for a couple months and now back down to $1.70, but will go back up as it always does.
At $2+ a litre a normal 60 litre gas tank ICE will cost on average $100 a week to drive, some people I know do a little more than 500k a week, like my younger brother, he refills twice a week as he is a Real Estate salesman.
Once petrol reaches the $2 mark again it won't go back down as EV's become more and more the normal drive, Fossil fuels will have to raise their prices to keep alive.
If you lose 30% of your customers, you also lose 30% profits and Shareholders start to get upset.
By 2030 EV's will be the only car that people buy and so the Fossil fuel Industry will hike the cost of fuel to the point, most people won't be able to afford to drive an ICE.
I am not sure what the tipping point is for a Gas station to no longer be viable, but I am guessing at maybe 40% loss of customers would be the start of many closing their doors and have ne resale value as all you can show on the books is a steady decline in sales, same as ICE car sellers.
There is going to be a huge disruption in the very near future sa far as Gas stations, in Australia over 90% of cars are ICE so all is good for the Service Stations, once we start getting Chinese imports under $35KAU or Tesla bring out a SUB $35KAU version, it will be the beginning of the end for ICE and Petrol Stations :)
MaaS in sustainable transport thinking includes bus, train and hire (e) bikes in urban areas but tends to steer away from robotaxi. Past novel concepts like SaaS are here as cloud based Software services.
I want my own vehicle. Why should i have to call someone else yo drive me??? In the US there's no way we'll ever give up our vehicles. People in the bigger cities don't have cars but the rest of us want a vehicle.
EVs are pretty useless in rural areas, as is all the lane assist bollocks that tries to wrench you into oncoming traffic on country lanes.
Ive thought once self-driving technology is here we'll just subscribe to a transport service. AI will just guide vehicles as needed all day long
Sounds nice, they will need to be cleaned :)
Hi, yes for some in cities I can see this happening, including wireless charging so it can charge itself. For most though EV just replaces ICE. They still have their car it’s just not ICE. Your car will also become an integral part of your home with bidirectional car charging. 80 kw hr home batter in your car, filling up from solar and providing power when you need it.
Enphase already have this on sale now.
Take care M.
IMO TAAS is not going to help me much. e.g. I am soon doing a 9,000km return journey from Melbourne VIC to Cairns Qld in my Model Y. I can't see ANY TAAS being able to transport me, my wife, our Ebikes etc etc. We need to be able to make side trips / detours as we see fit - TAAS will not work. In the city, sure it might work, but I'm not holding my breath on that either.
@@greghudson9717 First, nobody said that it was going to replace vacations or road trips, which is what you seem to be describing.
That said, if you're currently doing this trip in a Model Y. . . why do you say that this could never be done as an automated service? The Model Y is the very sort of car that will first start doing service as an autonomous vehicle. And why would you say that "side trips" are a deal breaker? Are they a problem if you rent a car from Hertz or Budget and want to take a side trip? If you program a trip today using Google Maps, is it set in stone?
Cars offered personal freedom unavailable in the horse era. In transitioning to EVs that freedom should be preserved.
I think most cars, that have regular maintenance, are easily good for 200-300k miles. Not km but miles. I have friends with 10 year old Chevy’s, not the most reliable, with 250k on the odometer. My latest Honda is 10 years old and had 150k miles on it when I got it. I didn’t think twice about it. I figure I’ll get another 150k out of it before anything major needs to be fixed.
Till they crash
Nope. It’ll be unsupported in under five years as the manufacturers and suppliers of ICE equipment see their markets disappear. They won’t stay open to keep your Honda supplied with parts😂
I expect 200,000 miles from my car. Back in ‘65, I only expected 75,000 to 100,000 miles on an engine. Piston rings have gotten a lot better.
"In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most.
Time taken in stocking energy to build an energy system, adding to it the time taken in building the system will always be longer than the entire useful lifetime of the system.
No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores.
No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it.
This universal truth applies to all systems.
Energy, like time, flows from past to future".