If Tony Seba is right, most of the world's car companies will go bankrupt
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 พ.ค. 2023
- If Tony Seba is right, most of the world's car companies will go bankrupt
👇👇 The Electric Viking store/merchandise 👇👇
shop.theelectricviking.com/
Size guide and other help for the store 👇
theelectricviking.com/the-ele...
🔔 Subscribe and hit the notification bell! ► www.youtube.com/@electricviki...
Join me on Patreon ► / theelectricviking
Join as a member in The Electric Viking TH-cam►
/ @electricviking
Members-only videos (see videos before anyone else)►
• Members-only videos
👇👇 Please donate here for Shanna (Viking's wife) if you can 👇👇
gofund.me/ef6650d7
See what happened to Shanna:
• Stage 4 can go to hell...
Get a 10% discount on tickets to Fully Charged Live in 2023 (and meet me in person). 10% discount code for London and San Diego will be released closer to the event dates.
Buy ticket from here: tickets.lup.com.au/fully-char...
The Electric Viking on other platforms:
Rumble ► rumble.com/c/TheElectricViking
Facebook page ► / theelectricvikingfb
Facebook group ► / theevfbgroup
Twitter ► / theevking
Instagram ► / theelectricvking
Pinterest ► / theelectricviking
Telegram ► t.me/theelectricviking
TikTok ► / theelectricviking
My Stake referral link ► tinyurl.com/hellostake
👇 See more about me 👇
• You've been asking; he...
👇 My Bali trip 👇
• I went to Indonesia an...
👇 Video about My Skateboard 👇
• EASIEST & cheapest way...
👇 Subscribe to my kids channel 👇
tinyurl.com/subscribetojackan...
See more videos:
The largest wind project in the Western Hemisphere starts construction
• The largest wind proje...
US firm unveils small 'safe' nuclear reactor that powers 300,000 homes
• US firm unveils small ...
A commercially viable solar cell set a NEW efficiency world record
• A commercially viable ...
Wind & solar send electricity prices below zero for 1 week in Australia
• Wind & solar send elec...
China has enough wind & solar to power nearly 1 billion houses
• China has enough wind ...
VW increase ELECTRIC car sales worldwide by 44% in Q1 2023
• VW increase ELECTRIC c...
The 5 best electric cars unveiled at the Shanghai motor show
• The 5 best electric ca...
Model Y is best selling car in Europe and the United States in Q1
• Model Y is best sellin...
Ford CEO praises Chinese EV maker 'totally different world than Tesla'
• Ford CEO praises Chine...
Turkeys 1st EV; the Togg T10X with ultra high energy Farasis battery
• Turkeys 1st EV; the To...
Why buying a Chinese electric car is NOT always a good idea
• Why buying a Chinese e...
Harley-Davidson's CEO says Harley going electric ONLY
• Harley-Davidson's CEO ...
BYD's NEW electric pickup truck (Ute) revealed
• BYD's NEW electric pic...
Waymo driverless robotaxi pulled over by police in Phoenix
• Waymo driverless robot...
LDV reveals 1000hp electric pick up / ute with GM's midgate
• LDV reveals 1000hp ele...
Tesla overtakes Audi in global car sales. BMW & Mercedes are next...
• Tesla overtakes Audi i...
Bad news for Ford & GM - China doesn't want American cars anymore
• Bad news for Ford & GM...
Aussies make history! EV sales in Australia overtake medium petrol cars
• Aussies make history! ...
Why China is poised to manufacture the world's safest cars
• Why China is poised to...
Wind power sets new renewable generation records in Europe
• Wind power sets new re...
The city with the most wind & solar energy has the smallest reliability gap
• The city with the most...
Carbon emissions from global SUV fleet are higher than 189 countries
• Carbon emissions from ...
The biggest solar and wind powerplant in the world just got turned on
• The biggest solar and ...
The EV battery Price War in China will bring EV's to parity with ICE
• The EV battery Price W...
Tesla's EV price war in China leads to $18 billion BYD stock sell off
• Tesla's EV price war i...
#tonyseba #evnews #evcars
This channel may use some copyrighted materials without specific authorization of the owner; but content used here falls under the “Fair Use” Copyright Disclaimer under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976.
Allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favor of fair use.
Contact us for any copyright issues. If you want a credit of any footage we are using, please let us know.
Website: theelectricviking.com/contact/
Email: contact@theelectricviking.com
![[Full] อังคารคลุมโปง Close Up EP.49 | คนใกล้ผีคนที่ 49 : หมอฉุกเฉิน “หมอบอส” (Thai Sub)](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/dKPUaX7UxMQ/mqdefault.jpg)
Prayers for your wife and wishing her a very successful treatment! Glad she has great support, stay strong !
When Nuclear was first being rolled out the thinkers were saying that the cost of electricity would be so low the supply would not need to be metered. We all know how that worked out.
There is no free lunch, Sam.
Yeah your never gonna get rid of the energy wranglers.
Oil companies made sure that nuclear never took off. They got the environmentalist to do their job for them. It's different with solar because your roof won't cause a nuclear meltdown.
Renewables will never be free, but their prices have been dropping significantly over the last 20 years. After the initial costs are recovered from energy sold, then there are maintenance costs and replacement costs every 30 years, which are negligible when compared to how much energy is produced.
The beauty of renewables is that once the initial investment has been made, the source of the energy production itself is free, unlike oil, which needs to be drilled/refined, and transported and coal needs to be dug, and transported.
Calculations are done to compare the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and right NOW, the cheapest is onshore wind, then solar, then offshore wind. Renewables are the future.
This was one of your most important videos Sam. The foundation of energy production is changing, and very few understand the enormous societal benefit probabilities coming during the next seven years. Well done - RESPECT!
What benefits exactly? Fossil fuels have brought the whole world into a better living situation. Better crop growth, less malnutrition, better production, cheaper energy. Everything you see around you, your cars, computers, clothes, food, plastics, etc, are derived from fossil fuels. So what exactly will be the enormous societal benefits in the next seven years? Energy will be more expensive once government stops supporting Green energy, people in developing nations will suffer and none of this has any real proven reason to take place.
The foundation of energy is not changing. Coal fuels everything even EVS.
110%
what an idiot statement... EVs are bad for the environment. and are not very dependable. all these EV makers and Tesla will go bankrupt
100%. I like EV’s but people who are so in on EV will be everything have no idea how many products need petroleum.
Tony Seba’s presentations were very influential for me too. Very excited that this disruption is gathering steam. I can’t afford an EV yet, but my lawn mower and power tools have been disrupted 😊
Brilliantly said 😂🤙👏
Haha mine 2!
I have battery powered weed whacker and leaf blower... Works very well, it's quiet and I just plug in the battery to recharge. I can't actually imagine using... what, gasoline?
Haha mine 3! and chain saw.
All my tools, drills, lawn mower are electric. And im so happy with them. Cant afford ev yet so i will just wait till it gets way cheaper in 5 years time.
I remember my rich friends playing samsung or iphone and im just watching on the side during early days of smartphone. Now i was able to buy so cheap smartphone brands anywhere. Patience is important and time will come for us to get these cheaper ev soon.
Discovered Tony Seba in 2016, which led me to TSLA. Took a test drive (it's free), was so blown over, I bought my daughter some shares. So interesting to see it all start to unfold as Tony predicted. Next thing is Precision Fermentation!
Precision fermentation to the moon.
In 2020, I asked why LFP was not being used in cars. The question is why has it taken so long to dump the ternary type cells?
@@davidelliott5843 not as energy dense!!
TSLA stock has pretty much doubled over the last six months. Now it's getting close to being worth what I paid for it. I have 639 shares.
@@markumbers5362 percision ferments will have to join the que, I have been cooking "meat tasting" dishes using mushrooms for ages.
Tough to tell the difference.
Hello Sam, I started watching this following the headline, my intention was to look for holes in the EV argument, yes I am a EV/climate sceptic. That stopped when you said why you were in Thailand. I mentioned on an earlier video, I lost my wife to Cancer 3 years ago. Your wife's health is far more important than any EV discussion, I truly hope whatever treatment she is having is successful. Best wishes to both of you.
You don't stop being a skeptic out of sympathy for cancer, it has to be because of what is said, of the evidence. If that isn't enough for you then remember that ICE is a technology of the industrial revolution. Isnt it time we move on? When the first cars appeared in the early 1900s, there were a lot of skeptics too and it disrupted a huge sector of horse related jobs ranging from breeding, feeding, sheltering, equipment and cart manufacturing. No need to worry, it will work out in the end.
Scotland has 120 % renewable electricity but has the highest domestic electricity costs in Europe
It’s the north end of an island.
But the politicians are worse than useless
So we pay €0.33 per kw (Zurich, Switzerland)! Almost no solar panels on house roofs...
@@martinstreiff1120 So who pays for the cost of building the generators and also the decommissioning, would that be you via taxes, rather than through the cost of the electricity .
Maybe other countries add these costs to the price of generation
Viking, thank you for spreading the joy, the love, the great forward looking optimism. I agree with your bright appraisal for our future! Love/light for your wive’s plight.😢❤
You need a prnoun.
Must watch information! This could be your best video yet. Sam, keep up the great work!
Brilliant video. He's spot on, cars spend 99% of their life on the driveway, and if a robo taxi can pick my up from the pub let's do it! Probably worth noting that my grandmother was born in 1896, in London ,there were no cars then.
TH-cam channel NOW YOU KNOW has been saying all of this for years now. In fact they have an excellent mini series sort of documentary that describes every step of how and why the unfolding of all of these events will happen and go into great detail on the changes in society and city layouts. It's fascinating.
I think there are better channels.
Newcomers compared to Tony Seba. Good channel though.
I used to watch them for the first two or three years. Then they started getting quite negative and began to think they knew better than Tesla what to do. Hubris in the extreme, I unsubscribed. You're right about how good their thoughts on future transport were though, that was really well done.
Totally agree. I have been driving evs for 8 years and won't go back...
Why would you buy a car when you can get a car ride for less than your insurance per year? As long as you live near a city and there are ride services available, it would be a huge waste of money to spend it on car that sits in your garage 95% of the time.
Great info as usual Sam. I have come to rely on you as a source of information because you are very good at what you do. Thank you.
5th like
This guy's a paid propagandist, but the banks that own western governments love him, so expect his channel to grow larger. The least expensive functioning EV in my area of Minnesota is a 2017 Tesla Model S 100D for $39,900. The least expensive functional ICE car is 33X times cheaper. The difference in price will have to be borrowed from a bank, which produces nothing but misery and debt. The conversion to EVs is another large step down the path to rentier serfdom hell.
"You will own nothing, and you will be happy"
-The WEF
Love Tony Seba. I first posted his stuff to my Facebook friends in 2017. People seeing my post still can't seem to wrap their heads around the extent of the change coming between now and 2030.
Seba is a very important thinker and prognosticator. Thank you for helping to keep us up to date on his views of the future.
I say let the chips fall as they may. There are too many greedy corporations!
Yet another great video Sam. Was nice meeting you at fully charged Sydney. From the 1970s I have been experimenting with power adoption like fitting a fan to a car alternator to give us power to our static caravan but that was in the UK but now I live in Australia it's so much easier 9 years ago we fitted solar panels and I can assure they have paid for themselves many times over now I have a battery as well. It keeps power bills to a minimum. We do hope the cancer treatment is working well. Keep smiling everyone
An instant robotaxi for everyone for 100 bucks per month? Very very hard to believe for me, this kind of service must be considerably more expensive than this.
All of your prior experience involved having to pay a person. People are expensive!
@@Thisoldhiker Yeah, I would recommend against having empty cars drive around. Empty cars will sit until called upon.
I think you are right, maybe double.
Living in Thailand and having CLL I carried out intravenous vitamin C treatments about 3 years ago. I am not sure whether or not this was a cure but my blood count was normal sometime after the treatment. My GP gave me 10 years from diagnosis and it’s been 15 years now and blood count is still normal. That treatment was with Absolute Health in Chiang Mai with Dr Wittawatt. Of course good diet helps alao
I wish you and wife the best in your endeavour here in Thailand.
Hopefully you got a few months left before things go downhill quickly.
No reason to get exotic treatment for CLL, when there are several frontline treatments now available, such Venetaclax and Ibrutinib.
Tesla dojo and AI are going to make stop signs and traffic lights obsolete when cars can see each other and talk to each other. There’s no need for stoplights stop signs anymore and it’s gonna help traffic flow so much faster and better and no one’s talking about it.
Yes right, and full self driving works ,like now.
I disagree. FSD cars can stop and go when the other cars are in the camera range. But the traffic flow is a different story. The traffic lights, stop signs, and yield signs ..etc .. are needed, in my opinion.
I think Teslas already there.. I mean their drivers barely stop and have almost been ran over by the terrible Tesla drivers.
Most times I see a crash a Tesla is involved 😂🎉
That’s a long way of in the future.
Tony Seba is a Rockstar!
Pretty much came true what he predicted in 2013!
Insane accuracy! ✌️
No he's not a rock star, he's a time traveller!!
5th like
BOOM! 💥
I am interested in much deeper dives into cars as a service. How many subscriptions per robotaxi? How many miles before you get throttled in a month.
Can they replace taxis and Uber? Yes. Will they displace more cars in cities? Sure.
What happens at thanksgiving and Xmass when everyone suddenly wants to drive at the same time? How much overcapacity is going to just sit around at other times?
Do they actually replace cars or just provide virtual cars for the peasantry? Hopefully no homeless, the smell would be bad and the San Francisco ones will pee and poop in the car.
Nice one Viking. One of your best so far!
This was an excellent episode. Watched it a few times. Thanks.
One problem… China dominates battery production
Which encompasses the entire supply chain from raw materials to cell manufacturing, and its influence extends globally.
This position gives China a strategic advantage in the growing market for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage solutions.
The cost of coal, petrol, natural gas are pretty much next to nothing now. The high costs are largely in taxes. What will SWB's version of this look like?
Love the video Electric Viking! Very interesting
I first came across Tony Seba after watching the Australian film 2040. i have tried to watch everything Rethinkx puts out.
Really good Sam, great insight
Absolutely love Seba, been following him for over 3 years.
Great content!
Agree. Tony and Peter Zeihan are my preferred fortune tellers, because they can see all the pieces accurately, and they draw supremely accurate conclusions.
In my country, Uber is already significantly lower than owning an automobile, a trip in the city is usually less than 7-8 USD, I don’t see the new car market crashing. I don’t think consumers are rational when buying cars, this is the reason why you can sell a 1k purse or a 300 sneaker.
👍 Enjoyed this one, I'd like to hear more about the latest on autonomous vehicles on this channel. Cruise, Waymo etc
Tesla are far in the lead to a generalised solution. Others can operate in a limited way but they are all super expensive to scale. The point is to massively undercut the cost of a taxi ride with a human driver, not burn money running demonstration services at insanely greater cost.
I've been following Tony and this stuff since 2017 and I find the speed breathtaking. I regularly talk to folks on the street who still think EVs are just nice looking golf carts. They are completely unprepared for the changes they will see. From their perspective it will appear to have come out of nowhere.
I talk to my friends they are dismissive of EVs. I say "get some TSLA." They say "the cooperation is coming" They say "solar and wind are fails because the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow". In 3 to 4 years people will be wandering around with blank faces as they see what was once their world falling away.
Robocars will work in the cities but not elsewhere. Very different experience using an Uber in low population areas.
Tony Seba is like secret information... Have been watching him for years.
(Edit: it almost seems like some companies watched Tony Seba and decided to make it come true. They set their goal to what Tony predicted - why?, because it was a good aspirational goal, and actually it turned out to be an achievable prediction so why not? Also such a thing keeps hope alive when people see the future is actually coming true.)
It appears that none of the Japanese legacy auto makers have been watching Tony Seba, as they are at least 5-10 years behind Tesla & the Chinese EV makers. Japan is at serious risk of losing its entire auto industry, and that would lead to their economic collapse.
Great video man - best wishes to your family
Much appreciated
Evening mate its 23:32 here in the UK
I remember 4 years ago (around August 2019) when I told my friend Tesla would sell 2 million vehicles in 2023. They had just done 245k..(2018) . i told them 2027 there would be very few new gas car sales... I had just watched Tony Seba... my mind was blown but I was convinced. My friend told me they dont know anyone who wants an EV and that they are too expensive for most people. I told them about cost declines and they thought i was insane for thinking costs would go down so much so fast... well... here we are and Tesla just might do 2m... and so many people are buying EVs.
I've been watching Tony Seba since 2010. Whenever I'd get really down about climate change, I'd cheer myself up with a Tony Seba video or book. By ordinary standards for tech predictions, namely completely and consistently wrong, Tony Seba's predictions have been 100% correct, amazingly so FSD may fall outside the Seba technology disruption framework, or it may not. It's a tough nut to crack, but we will get it done in a decade. That will blow the top off the industry even if we make a 100% transition to EVs which almost certainly will. It will blow the top off an inudstry that's already had its top blown off by EVs. FSD is another disruption, connected to EVs but really separate from it. Read Adam Dorr's excellent new book BRIGHTER.
Imagine if it was in just 5 years: just when the few survivors of the EV transition manage to get some profits to pay for the massive debts they contracted to manage it, suddenly, the demand for ANY car without FSD collapses, far faster than the ICE age ended. I'm personally amazed that NO ONE contracted Tesla yet to install their hardware 4 on their own cars. They are getting extremely wrong/incompetent by just not looking/believing in obvious and widely available industry disrupting facts twice in just a decade and a half. Speak about mindblowing incompetence.
The only fly, I can see in the ointment is all the potholes here in the UK. You would have to be Maverick to avoid the bloody things. Honestly, some of them look like opencast mines
Me too! He deserves Soooo much respect!
@@ouethojlkjn Did youtube put your answer in the wrong thread again? Or I totally missed your point.
@@FlorestanTrement autonomous driving needs to be able to navigate suspension smashing pot holes.
Economies of scale will ensure that power generation will always be grid-scale. Only subsidies allow homes to generate, but the cost is 5 times that of grid scale
Sam: Cybertruck will put another consideration on the table in evaluating when people weigh the decision to buy transportation as a service or actually owning the vehicle outright. The Cybertruck will bring another entire dimension to vehicle safety. This truck will be TOUGH. IF/when a collision occurs, having a Cybertruck around you will stack the deck in your favor because virtually any other vehicle you could possibly collide with will crumble in such a mechanical "contest". The grabber is that no one can know when/if you will need this extra safety margin which weighs, in my mind, as a pivotal factor for purchasing a Cybertruck outright. The Fleet Mode option could turn the asset into a net revenue producer anyway which must also be considered. For those that can pony up the purchase price an FSD Cybertruck that can be fleet enabled is the ultimate in convenience and personal safety while being financially responsible as the truck should literally pay for itself and return a not inconsiderable net yield.
Your wife just received some of the best medicine in this latest post. One of your best presentations ever.
Thank you for this gem 💎 🎉
6.5 years. According to ourworld in data - world energy profile; it still is about 80% fossil fuel and 10% nuclear, 8% hydro (no real change over 20 years) Solar 1-2% Wind 2-3% after 20 years of expansion.The idea of shifting 80% of the energy consumption onto the grid clealy would suggest you must increase the 20% existing non fossil fuel by 5x - While you might add to those; renewables won't grow to even 25% in 6.5 years.
Tony hasn’t been wrong yet. Not for 15 years…
He is right!
I agree- he has not been wrong with the disruption predictions but some of the timing was itself disrupted/delayed by Covid and the pandemic
Please explain to me how solar and wind are going to provide all of our power without improving efficiency at least 1000%
@@Roboticpycotic efficiency is not a problem. It’s all about cost per Kw. Both batteries and panels are dropping in price.
@@whowhy9023 ok great. How much sq km are we going to have to cover with panels for all of our needs? 50,000? 500,000?
I am looking forward to this transition and am hopeful for my grandchildren to have a comfortable life with more autonomy and without money worries.
This is either totally right or just plain out lunacy. After seeing how close Tesla is to solving FSD I have to go with the first. The numbers of robotaxi if FSD works are insane and I'm pretty sure that FSD is going to be solved within the year. There is only one reasonable conclusion and is the first, this guy is spot on. Im paying almost $1,000 for 3 cars between a lease, financing and insurance (one lease 295mo, one finance 315mo, one paid off) and 400mo insurance. If you tell me I can pay $300 a month for unlimited ride-sharing for my whole family I'll do it in a heartbeat.
I like your reminder about the benefits of car sharing! I have a small EV that cannot go on many of the rough roads near where I live. I would love to have an AWD EV with better clearance, but cannot afford one. I would love to be able to rent one when needed. I don't need a car everyday or even every week. A couple of years ago I considered listing my car on TURO, but the app would not let me charge enough to cover my costs. It is too bad we don't have better ways to share other things too, such as tools, and recreational equipment.
I've spent a good majority of my life working on traditional fuel powered vehicles and equipment and it has been frustrating to say the least ' I have long awaited a time like this although I'm still somewhat concerned with the high tech rather than analog systems
There are three major hurdles for vehicle electrification:
Firstly, the minerals required to manufacture them don't exist in sufficient abundance. EV production will hit a brick wall until better battery technology arrives.
Secondly, in order to charge all these EVs we'll have to generate more than twice as much electricity as we do now. Jokes like wind turbines and solar panels cannot fill that gap and once again they'd need batteries to make grids stable. Such battery technology does not exist yet.
Lastly, we'll need to replace or overlay the entire power grid to support all this additional power demand. Large high voltage transformers have a long backorder, of approximately 30 years!
So no. It's not going to happen.
Minerals are recycled, the vehicles provide virtual grid and stabilize infrastructure.
@@777skypilot best of luck with that! LOL
totally agree... have felt for a long time that the next disruption will be energy. Energy creation and transport.
In Australia the cost of Powerwall storage is $1/Wh. I paid $82K for a Tesla Model 3 LR with an 82kWh battery. That means I paid market value for the battery and Tesla threw in a free car 🤔 Once VTG/VTG becomes available I will store my solar energy in my car for night time use and sell the excess back to the grid. The car will pay for itself over time.
My point: there are other use cases for EVs beyond transport. That’s why demand won’t collapse.
Tesla has not and WILL NOT warranty batteries used for V2G V2H or V2L
@@theairstig9164 I don't care about warranty. I only use 7% of the energy each day and keep my battery between 40-60% SOC. So there is plenty of headroom for VTH without causing degradation. And if Telsa doesn't enable it then I will buy my next EV from a manufacturer who does. I have no special allegiance to Tesla.
My 70D has FUSC and our home is also solar with a L2 Charging Station. I can forsee many having a similar set up in the very near future.
@@rko1914 “FUSC”?
Tony Seba was absolutely correct in his long-term predictions. I was skeptical about some of his numbers, but he hit the nail on the head on almost every single point.
I can believe that self-driving will result in a crash of car and truck manufacturing as vehicles spend more time driving and less time waiting.
Great video Sam
Thank you.
$100 a month is far too low, unless you are self driving a small, old car for 3 days per month. One cannot ignore the labour costs and profit involved with a subscription model, for daily use it wouldn't work.
You are awesome. Very insightful and sensible. Best wishes to your wife and family Sam!
Thank you so much 😀
Clear and to the point Sam. Thanks as always. Hope your wife recovers quickly. Still would love to hear you do a comparison of Australia and say Germany in terms of solar. It seems a no brainer for Aussies. Is that the same in European countries where there may not be near the same amount of sun. Saw this new tech, solar fencing. Could be interesting.
How many people run their cars into the ground? Not many. How many people change their cars because they want something new, not that they need to? Same goes with clothes and mobile phones and loads of other things. Tastes, needs, fashion are always changing and marketing influences all our decisions, like it or not. For rhis reason I don't see us giving up the ultimate freedom of owning and changing our cars gives us.
I have run all my cars into the ground. Sanity rules
I have followed Tony Seba for years now and believe he is totally correct on his predictions. Thanks for featuring him.
Yes of course you're right. All car manufacturer's CEO's are completely oblivious to what the competition is doing. REALLY! They know with more information and understanding than the likes of Tony Seba what to do.
I think some may know, but what can they do? They are hired to push the business forward, make profits with the existing paradigm. But its too late! They must be just shaking their heads wondering why they ever accepted the job at the worst possible time in history for ICE vehicles. I wonder if GM/Ford/Stellantis might consider licensing the Tesla brad/technology and start making Teslas?
Thanks!
He’s referring to the great reset - own nothing and be happy mantra, 75% drop in car sales and thus ownership because it’s deliberately made prohibitive - 15 minute cities and use a robo taxi instead anyone?
I only discovered Tony Seba a few months ago, vut I've been pitching this theory to family and friends for well over 10 years. They just couldn't see it. Well here we are, be prepared for a shift in the transportation sector where you'll own nothing and be happy.
Transport as a service will work in cities, but not elsewhere.
It's Tony Seba's prediction vs Jevon's Paradox. With cheaper transportation, more it will be personally utilized. The only problem with subscription service is if the ride charged individually, per person, families will own a vehicle I think due to Jevon's Paradox. Individuals will most likely utilize the Robotaxi.
Resturants will pay to drive customers.
Neils Bohr..."We are not measuring the world. We are creating it." Our thoughts create the world. Sounds like you agree. What a powerful thought.
Well said!
He is very correct, there is a vast oversupply of vehicles in the world
Hey Sam, Wishing your wife great success with her treatment - hang in there, my friend.
Excellent report as usual, and I agree with Tony's insight. Predictions are interesting, but the facts are undeniable.
All the best to you and your family.
If RoboCars happen (..JonnyCab?) this will impact generation, EV charging and roads. Taxis do many _empty_ journeys to get from last hire to new hire. Time on the road, not parked. This needs kWh = more generation .. and increases wear.
I think there is a problem with the no personal ownership of cars idea. Perhaps it would make sense for folks in large urban areas who have access to many forms of public transportation. But for those of us in small towns or rural areas, I don't think it would work. There would not be enough demand to support a fleet of vehicles and if there or only a few or they had to travel a long way for a single customer, it would cost a lot more than a couple of hundred dollars a month.
There's nothing to prevent rural or semi-rural residents from continuing to own cars.
I live in Thailand (YT'r as well;) and just bought a car, not a new car, an older car for say 3 years. That's my estimate of how long it will be before EV production in Thailand ramps up & tax breaks/lower costs plus increased charging infrastructure. One can already drive from Chiang Mai to Phuket with an EV & easily charge up along the way. 3 years from now, EV's like BYD Seagull (11K usd/400km range) will be the norm and charging points literally everywhere. Will miss the roar of a V8, just not the fumes (nor the 2000 moving parts vs EV's avg 20;) Very best wishes to you and your wife and may you charge ahead together well into the future. STL
Yeah , you sound Ozzi mate! 😉
Love the content and your style.
Sam, you said in the video that you would put a link to the podcast in the description but I can’t find it. And a search on TH-cam didn’t come up with anything either
FSD, Robo-Taxis will allow maintenance at scale in dedicated refurbishing facilities.
"In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most.
Time taken in stocking energy to build an energy system, adding to it the time taken in building the system will always be longer than the entire useful lifetime of the system.
No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores.
No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it.
This universal truth applies to all systems.
Energy, like time, flows from past to future".
News from Scotland, for the 1st time, Jan, Feb, and March, saw wind overtake gas power. Also, I heard a rumour that each and every large turbine is to be accessorised with its own battery in the country. Wow.
Yes love those Scottish turbines paid for with English subsidies.
Renewables will never be free, but their prices have been dropping significantly over the last 20 years. After the initial costs are recovered from energy sold, then there are maintenance costs, and replacement costs every 30 years, which are negligible when compared to how much energy is produced.
The beauty of renewables is that once the initial investment has been made, the source of the energy production itself is free, unlike oil, which needs to be drilled/refined, and transported, and coal needs to be dug and transported.
Inside the energy industry, calculations are done to compare the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and right NOW, the cheapest energy production source is onshore wind, then the next cheapest is utility-scale solar, then offshore wind. Renewables are the future.
Yet today, solar and wind power are still very expensive.
Actually solar is cheaper than coal per Kwh
@@777skypilot skypilot, you are either a poor comedian, or woefully uninformed, or hoping that a big-enough lie will go undetected.
.
Oh, and solar only generates electricity on average what, 30% of the time?
I ha similar advice to rent a House instead of buying one, I thought that was an idiotic idea and so didn't listen and bought a $36,000 Home, sold and bought a better home every few years till now, I am in a $900,000 home that costs me nothing to own as it's Brick and Tile lowset.
Had I listened to the fool that told me to rent and save, I would be paying $550 a week in rent, such clever advice lol.
WIll be the same with an EV, once I pay for my EV, it will no longer cost anything to drive, the savings in no fuel costs will save my Wife and I about $5.000 to $7,500 a year and that is with out the cost of fuel increasing to past $2 a litre, which happened for a couple months and now back down to $1.70, but will go back up as it always does.
At $2+ a litre a normal 60 litre gas tank ICE will cost on average $100 a week to drive, some people I know do a little more than 500k a week, like my younger brother, he refills twice a week as he is a Real Estate salesman.
Once petrol reaches the $2 mark again it won't go back down as EV's become more and more the normal drive, Fossil fuels will have to raise their prices to keep alive.
If you lose 30% of your customers, you also lose 30% profits and Shareholders start to get upset.
By 2030 EV's will be the only car that people buy and so the Fossil fuel Industry will hike the cost of fuel to the point, most people won't be able to afford to drive an ICE.
I am not sure what the tipping point is for a Gas station to no longer be viable, but I am guessing at maybe 40% loss of customers would be the start of many closing their doors and have ne resale value as all you can show on the books is a steady decline in sales, same as ICE car sellers.
There is going to be a huge disruption in the very near future sa far as Gas stations, in Australia over 90% of cars are ICE so all is good for the Service Stations, once we start getting Chinese imports under $35KAU or Tesla bring out a SUB $35KAU version, it will be the beginning of the end for ICE and Petrol Stations :)
If I want to just go for a 3 hr drive, I don't want somebody driving me around.
See, it’s weird, but I couldn’t think of anything worse I would rather be driven and watch the world go by…
@@Markcain268 i don't think cars driven by humans will die totally, it may become more of a hobby. There are enough of us around at the moment.
if car sales dive that much we will be in full blown depression .... having said that we are building way more cars than needed to satisfy demand
My daughter lives in Reno. Battery companies and recycling companies
I hope everyone is ok with government shutting down your car if they think you done something they think is a no no😊. Interesting times ahead. I will keep an old car as backup.
The auto part stores are going to be in serious trouble. EV's only need a fraction of replacement parts that you have with ICE's. You will need to replace tires, windshield wipers, maybe a few other parts but no oil changes, brake pads (rarely if at all), exhaust systems, etc.
This what I find so incredibly STUPID about Toyota and to a large extent, the Japanese, talking about a Hydrogen powered industrial combustion engine as a counter to electric vehicles.
Apart from the logistics of producing and distributing Hydrogen, and the fact that it is so insanely volatile, you would STILL need all the belts, gears, lubricants, gaskets and seals, pumps, and all manner of other parts which will NOT be needed by electric vehicles.
For Toyota and the Japanese to think that a Hydrogen internal combustion engine is a good idea is just, I am sorry to be so harsh, NEXT LEVEL STUPID !
Will take a while to convert the whole fleet atleast till the mid 40s. New car sales are harldly 60 million , with this disruption total sales will b in the 50 m range and total global vehicle fleet is 1.5 billion (1500 million).
And attended parking lots, and auto dealerships, and road construction/maintenance, and car washes, and warehouses for all the stuff for all the foregoing, and and ... when you start looking around you realize that a large fraction of everything is arranged around CARS.
@@alan2102X, Estimates are that between 50 to 70% of all jobs in Japan are directly or indirectly related to the automotive industry. Their entire economy could collapse.
@Trevor Henriques it took 2 big bombs to change Japan's WW2
We have two VW cars and a Ford and all are paid for but when we were buying last VW. Garage was more interested in selling the VW finance rather than the car
Very interesting video. If this happens what is going to happen to Tesla? Does Tony Seba have any thoughts on this?
I’ve got a model 3 and putting solar on the house but not because I believe in anthropogenic warming from emissions. I just like electric motors
Listening to these guys that predict the future is interesting.
However reality often defies the most logical of these predictions.
For example the advent of tape players and the local video hire store was said to be the death knel of movie theatres. That was totally logical but never happened because forecasters failed to appreciate that consumers liked going out and therefore watching a video at home was not equivalent to watching the same movie at a theatre.
Now the video store has come and gone and movie theatres are still with us.
There are lots of unknowns although it is fun to postulate as you have done in this presentation.
I can’t see me ever buying a new vehicle in the U.S. We’re approaching 100k for a new Toyota 4Runner. Mid range vehicles are in the 60k range. I’m gonna be driving my 2007 for a long time it seems.
Auto Parts "Stores" probably can, but might not see the advantage of, adding things like D-I-Y Solar, Wind, & Micro Hydro Power Products, for sale, as well as EVSE's (Level 1 & Level 2 EV Chargers)! Other ideas might be good for them, too! Like Home Energy Battery Storage Systems!
That stuff might be a better fit for a home center like a Depot or Lowes.
If a big part of the cost of a car is the battery .... and the price of batteries goes down .... what happens to the price of cars, not factoring in anything else?
Most banks will go down as well..
10:00 "...annual auto sales will drop by 75%...": I think they should. But if they "would" they "would have by now". The "transportation as a service" would remove all those vehicles from people's driveways. But without robo-drivers transportation as a service can't work. If it could, it would be working right now...and have been working for my whole lifetime (80 years). To the contrary, taxis and busses have virtually gone out of existence (as alternatives to my travel needs) in my lifetime.
Some thoughts…..
- there will be a time when there’s too many ice vehicles and the prices will drop dramatically
- there will be a time when petrol stations become rarer and it harder to drive a petrol car than electric
- and maybe a time when there’s so many people looking for an electric car that the prices skyrocket