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Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030 - Oslo, March 2016
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 เม.ย. 2016
- Tony Seba's Clean Disruption Keynote presentation at the Swedbank Nordic Energy Summit in Oslo, Norway, March 17th, 2016.
The keynote, based on the book 'Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation' assert that four technology categories will disrupt energy and transportation by:
1- Batteries / Energy Storage
2- Electric Vehicles
3- Self-Driving Vehicles
4- Solar Energy
The outcome of the Clean Disruption is that by 2030
• All new vehicles will be electric.
• All new vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving).
• Oil will be obsolete
• Coal, natural gas and nuclear will be obsolete
• 80+ per cent of parking spaces will be obsolete.
• Individual car ownership will be obsolete.
• All new energy will be provided by solar (and wind)
Clean Disruption is a technology disruption. Just like digital cameras disrupted film and the web disrupted publishing, Clean Disruption is inevitable and it will be swift.
Copyright © 2016 by Tony Seba
More info at: tonyseba.com
I clicked on the video thinking I would only watch 5 minutes or so, but I was glued to my chair the entire time.
same here
same here :-)
this happened to me as well, so crisp & clear method of presenting the subject.
Me too ! :-)
Exactly the same.
If only all powerpoint presentations could be that engrossing.
Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation:
1. Energy Storage -> *Tesla*
2. Electric Vehicles -> *Tesla*
3. Self-Driving Cars -> *Tesla*
4. Solar PV -> *Tesla*
Yes I think it is a buy though the crowd will follow quickly
4. Solar energy -> SolarCity, now: Tesla
But this is all old news. Elon is now working on AI, tunnel boring and Brain interfaces.
@@michaelallen4763 If we just look at China, you have BYD (Build you dream) that already produces electric cars, buses (completely electrified their native city, Shenzen, with 16,000 pure electric buses) and trucks. As well they are quickly becoming one of the biggest manufacturers of solar panels in a friendly market as China has set the bar very high for electrification. They also have an electric skyrail available!!
The only Problem with Tesla (i like Tesla) ist that, like with thermic cars, there are sport cars and useful cars. Teslas are eletrical sport cars. They are too fast (their acceleration) and too big battery. But great cars. The model 3 is the way to go and the fast cars were necessary to make its publycity and funds.
We replaced both our dinosaur burners with two EV's. One with 120 km of range and one with 200 KM of range. It was a bit of a test for us to see they they would suit our needs. Happily they do, 100 percent. Cost was about 50,000 total for the two. We bought on the outgoing model year on both and saved a bundle. We needed at least one of them to be fast charge CHaDemo compatible for longer trips but really we do most of our charging at night at home. The recharge network is getting bigger really quick though. Probably double the stations in the last two years in British Columbia where we live.
Superb walkthrough into the future
That's insane! I've never been able to watch something this glued to the computer screen. Bitter sweet but this guy is speaking the truth.
I'm watching it in November 2019, he turned out 90% precise with his predictions! It's amazing!
construct cycle highways 10 km in / out of town. The electrik bike is already invented, and this is the superior technology to transport a single person around in a big city.
I really enjoyed that talk. It gave me hope for the future. I cant wait to read your book.
By far the most interesting speech about EV and its future.
wow such mind blowing, I did not knew we were this close, seems like science fiction, a citadel with selfdriving cars and no more grid just solar panels with batteries and no need for fuel transportation, wish I have some money to start investing in solar
Joseth F : you won't have to invest; see 45:10 business model!
6months intervals here but I think he was talking about putting money in solar panel stocks. And yeah the smart money is now.
After watching this... It made me realize that Elon Musk may have been sent from the future.
Maybe ! Who knows. It is definitely possible.
Knowledge is power - and knowledge is what enables visionaries. Musk is a voracious reader and consumes knowledge like a sponge. The key to a bright future is in education, and sadly, most schools (all over the world) are failing our future generations. Huge swathes of the US population remain ignorant and uneducated - as do large numbers of people in the UK and Europe.
That's why Elon is so chill and sure about everything...like he's already seen it all happen...It's exactly how I'd act if I went back in time bahaha
Musk is like a modern day Tesla who can fund his own projects.
United World Youth Org, a gen, silence inheritance like 189 China.The Venus Project for the youth, free the old
My frugal son-in-law wanted an EV but didn't want to pay $30k for new. He found a 3 year old Nisson Leaf lease return for $8k. Looks great, runs well and he loves it. So those who don't have a new EV budget or would rather use their money elsewhere can still get in the game for a reasonable price.
morgan brown
You are so right 👍🏼😃
We have just bought a Nissan Leaf model 2014 at half price of the new!👍🏼😃
It drives amazing, and it cost us less than half to have and maintain, than an ICE car.
If you have doubts about changing to an EV, try this.
For a week or more, try to write down every Day how far you are driving, I mean, in our life we drive to and from work, do the shopping as well, it is 50 miles a day, then you charge it at home during the night, wake up with full battery, and put on the heat, or aircon in the car from your breakfast table via an app!👍🏼😃
It is so cool😃
And then we drive to visit family, and we Can even charge at their home, while having Fun, and dining, again driving home with a full battery.
Nissan Leaf drives 84-100 miles on a fully charged battery😃👍🏼
When you wrap your mind around that your "fuel" is always near, both at home or with friends, and family, they all have electricity!😃👍🏼⚡️.
It is only a little more tricky if you live in an apartment building, and there is no charging points near you.😁🤔
I can't wait to have no gas bill and no power bill what a beautiful future this will be
Only death and taxes are certain in life.
extremely exciting times. You have given me the mind set to get rid of my vehicle completely, not just down size as Ive been thinking about.
Now is the time to find where in this disruption I can position myself to take advantage of some of the businesses opportunities.
great content. keep it coming. thank you
Thank you for this, I have passed it on to a number of folks, many of whom have passed it on as well.
Wow, that was fantastic information, thank you very much!
Right on , infinity and beyond, now that's talking. I've been saying this for ten years
Nigel... same here... what's so encouraging is to see what all intelligent people know, backed up with facts and economic logic. How tragic it is that fools like Trump refuse to acknowledge irreversible progress.
It's really great and eye opening..
What an incredible video. I will be sharing this with everyone I know.
Every high school student and university student should be required to see this. It is our future, but the way he puts it...it is an entire semester of knowledge in one hour.
well done Tony, great presentation, no one would have thought ten years ago people would pay $6 for a bottle of water ! the world is changing and electric driver less cars and transport are the way to go and yes it is disruptive for the better
So excited to be part of this industry. We have successfully helped multiple home owners and some public and commercial buildings run 100% on renewable energy. As mentioned, they still have to pay their transmission fees but their operation costs have gone down to nothing. This is what Net-Zero Energy is. You generate as much energy as you require on a yearly basis. Gotta love what we do!
my brain wasn't just blown, it was nuked.
The future looks bright. The oil companies will not like this though.
nor coal, or any other energy sector. There is going to be a lot of folks needing work in 13 years. Maybe the Solar Cell and battery industry will need them.
Luckily there's nothing they or anyone else can do to stop it.
It will happen regardless of anything.
This time it is not a bunch of idealists fighting them though, it is Google, Apple, Tesla, some of the largest corporations on earth. the pockets are deep enough to overcome their lobby power.
The oil companies are doomed it's just we're not told that.
Read this. Slightly scary as it also means the US economy is going to crash, badly but it has to happen so we will just all have to ride it out.
Will be fun on the other side though : )
srsroccoreport.com/the-blood-bath-continues-in-the-u-s-major-oil-industry/
Yeah, a lot of jobs will be displaced to other sectors of the industry. But the trend is that automation of industrial processes will reduce the necessity of workers. We will have to change our economy because not everybody will be able to have a job and we cant have a nation of unemployed poor people in the streets. Big changes are coming.
Tony Seba's presentation is highly inspiring and a wake up call for our readiness for radical transformation caused by disruptive Technologies.
Excellent. Perspective change to be noted by one and all. Please watch
this is an incredible talk. thank you - it points out some pretty obvious things, especially the car statements and the parking.
Best youtube video I have ever watched. Tony Seba knows how to tell the "story". It used to be that going off the grid was a groovy or nerdy lifestyle decision. When I put 4.3 kw of PV on my house >10 years ago I was told I was making my house a little weird, yet now it is the norm.
Superb Presentation
Mind Blown!!!!! Bloody brilliant. You should do a TEDx!
Fascinating video! I'm eager to see these disruptive technological revolutions occur. The only thing that makes me worry is if governments actively labor to thwart these new technologies (like when Spain passed a "sun tax" effectively wiping out the solar industry in the country for a time).
Tony seba is magical. One gets glued to the chair listening to him. Absolutely truth.
Thank you for the inspire presentation
Faisal Aldhafeeri its good for u also, with a lot of sunshine
Very exciting - thanks so much for this - I have shared it on our platforms - Green Renaissance. Thank you.
mind blowing presentation....
If BMW, Ford, Chevrolet and all the other big manufacturers dont start now building electric vehicles they will become bankrupt in the next decade. This is Kodak vs digital all over again.
Your talk is just awesome. Everyone should watch this and try to understand it!
Fascinating! Thank you, Tony.
Thank you sir,a pleasure to watch.
no more wars for oil, fights will be for water.
Not with cheap renewable energy to power desalination plants
.... YAY!
+Vincent knows.
Further, desalination technology will become cheaper with proper investment.
Desalination will be a cheap side product of over capacity.
Great Job Tony. Really Impressive!!!
A fantastic presentation. Thank you.
Interesting that his graphs are the same ones from 4-5 years ago.
Some are way out already.
He has Lithium reaching $100 by 2024! Looking now like it might happen before 2020, possibly 2018-19.
This of course highlights exactly what he's saying. Not even he is getting it right as it's moving so fast now.
I must have watched this in it's various forms 20 times now.. : )
Fantastic ~ It reinforces my thinking of the last ten years, and my beliefs and investments of the last five years. My thinking goes quite beyond this in fact, but these are very basics. Invest in the future, SOLAR, not the past, tar oil and coal. Fracking, site C dam, pipelines, will be obsolete before they reach their amortization.
Great explanation of disruptions!
I was lead here by googling ur name , having seen it in a 'Telegraph' article.
So glad, I came, I watched, I subscribed !
As usual, I am ahead of the curve...
I have Solar, I have an EV, just need the battery storage now.
Unfortunately people in places like the UK will still need our grid connection as there is not enough solar power in the depths of winter.
I wasn't expecting this good of a presentation. Just the other day I did a trade off study of a DIY install of a solar PV home install. Pay off was in 13 years at 5% on investment. I believe Mr Seba is on the money. Exciting times are ahead.
Thank you Tony
This is mindblowing, and spot on!!👍🏼😃
Most people havent seen it coming, we are all kept in the dark, they cant sell their ICE cars if everybody knew this!👍🏼😃❤️
But as you predict, they cant hold an avalanche back, even thoug they will try!😁
But we need to relaxe, and spread this video, it will all happen no matter what!.
Strong forces are working for it to happen, as you say, it is now!👍🏼😃
Did you know, that Algeria in Africa off all countries, are installing a 4 Gigawatt solar panel plant right now, and United Emirates are doing the same!!👍🏼😃😍
While they are slowing down solar in many Countries, some have seen the light, so to speak.
If they dont start jumping on that energy train, you are showing here, its going to be to late.
They get thrown out into the dark, because it will be hard to catch up!.
Very exiting times to live in.
You cant stop Technology, and the disruption, as seen before!😃👍🏼
Great stuff thanks for posting this. Love the McKinsey fail from the 80s :-)
Fantastic ...most interesting hour I've ever spent online.
Tanh u so much for this great keynote 🙌🏽💪
Very compelling presentation. There's a lot of really good stuff here.
Just one issue: vehicle utilization is not going to go to 60-80%, because there's a lot of transportation downtime at night, and the system has to handle peak commuting capacity. 40-50% is a stretch goal. Even so, that's a heck of a lot more than today's 5-10%. And I agree with everything else in this presentation.
wow what an interesting talk
The transformation awn from hydrocarbons can only be slowed by bureaucrats writing rules to force the change. Just get out of the way and let the market do it. Fantastic.
Awesome!!!!
Fantastic presentation! Absolutely agree with you. Concise overview of intersecting tech and economics. One caveat - 2000 moving parts vs 17 moving parts is engine/motor only. :-)
You have to have patience to sit through this, but every smart thinking person should do it. Your life will be different...within the decade.... for certain.
We will probably have to artificially slow the rate of change (if we can), just to deal with the societal implications.
I remain an optimist. :-)
Thank you for the clear analysis of what is happening and what most likely will be!
So in a sense all those technology improvements will help improve air quality and reduce pollution in major cities. Wish I was born now so I could enjoy that.
Love this!!
Great seminar
Excellent!
Great video. Some assumptions are a little skewed but the macro view is solid. For example EV utilisation will never be that high as demand is cyclical plus it still takes time to charge, ideally when the sun shines if solar is to be that significant. Depreciation rates on these vehicles will be high, particularly on the batteries which as yet have a limited number of cycles.
Fantastic! There is great economic opportunity in the utilization of solar power!
I have to question the idea that merely consolidating the battery supply chain is going to cut costs by up to 50%. Transportation costs are a miniscule part of almost any assembly/manufacturing process, which is why companies like Apple and car manufacturers are able to move things around so much and still cut costs.
25:17 _ referring to the tesla reliability_ "You can drive this thing to the moon and back". Lol. EM must have taken that statement to heart.
OUTSTANDING LECTURE SIR
What an interesting presentation on Energy; the tipping point of solar and the future for oil and energy transmission. Watch this video to the end, more than 50 min but you get a lot of interesting views and conclusions.
Oh amazing analysis & way to go prediction. Will happen for sure. Good for us.
I'm so impressed, thank you!!!!
No comments yet? Wow!
Anyway, EVs can't come soon enough. I hate the noise and air pollution of ICE vehicles (not to mention all the nastiness of oil extraction, refining, transportation, etc.)
All Good points and transporting gas on roads and railways is dangerous.
Not to mention pipelines and their spills.
Jaw-dropping presentation!
Excellent insight into the multi dimensional aspects of the various technological revolutions underway. Its mind boggling that we are at the cusp of such a fundamental change in the way of life as we see it. Its happening all around us and we are oblivious to the disruption it is poised to cause.
Mind blown. Wow!
Fantastic insight.
This video tickles my imagination but it raises a few questions
What is the percentage of the houses that are too shaded to produce much solar energy?
How does Tony Seba's future affect the labor market?
It has been said that half of the men in the US are employed as drivers.
Whatever the truth, it is a lot.
How does exponential growth interact with finite resources? (The Limits to
Growth)
Can our civilization or politicians make the changes necessary to adapt without chaos?
Arlen Comfort
Hi Arlen go to Google Project Sunroof
It is Google who has made a Map over sunroof possibility In the US!👍🏼😃
And yes!, this talk is mindblowing!.
Most People's have not seen it coming!, they keep us in the dark, because otherwise they cant sell their cumbustion Engine cars!.
I got my information about Google Project Sunroof, from Tesla time news, Now you know, Jesse and Zac's you tube Channel, its about Tesla and all Electric stuff!.
Go watch, it its great😃👍🏼.
I am from Denmark, Europe, and I watch it Daily !
Is it not obvious that half the men in this country could not be drivers? I don't know of a single guy who works as a driver.
VERY GOOD INFORMATION.
CHANCHAL KAUR, AJMER RAJASTHAN INDIA .
In my experience we underestimate the quantum of change but often make wrong assumption about where the disruptive changes will occur. I remember Bill Gates saying we would not need programmers because we would all be talking to computers. On of my university lectures saying in 1972 that computer programmers would die out in a few years. Did not happen. But I can also remember when CEOs were saying things like show me where somebody is making money out of the Internet and then I will get interested. They were already too late and have either gone out of business or become much smaller. I give you Amazon as an interesting case study. I read many comments about how they had been running for a number f years but were still to make any money.
I found this presentation compelling and I had to watch to the end. He may not be right in every detail but I am sure he is right overall.
Pretty good presentation.
I would only change: attitudes like AT&Ts are not a mistake, but rather a fundamental reason big companies fail against revolutions. Self delusion is an integral part of why new companies take over. AT&T didn't fail to predict takeover technologies just once. They did it several times. AT&T was offered the ability to create the Internet, and they considered it a waste of their time and passed on it. Taxi companies didn't respond to Uber by rolling out services equal to Uber, such as easy payment, tracking cabs on a map, ability to contact the driver, etc. Instead they tried to fight against Uber using government and the courts.
The next such big company is clearly Comcast, which is showing all of the features of an arrogant huge cash cow waiting to be taken down.
This fundamental change seems to occur as a mathematical certainty.
Great way to put it.
My new brand BMW is the last ICE I have. In 3 years hopefuly I change it by a EV.
Americans use 30 kWh a day on average?? Here in the netherlands it is more like 3-6 kWh (for two persons) We use maybe 8 a day and we drive electric, charged at home also.
A/C...
I use 17 per day but half of that is for domestic hot water, no access to natural gas. Bigger (and less efficient) houses in North America as well.
Dinosaur AC...+ not turning it off + letting light&TV run when not at home + having the window open while heater is on.
@@jkgiygigoiuholjojouihgiygf1952 what a waste lol. Build smarter and you don't need ac
I'd love to see an updated version of this talk. Just two years later, but things are happening rapidly.
Wow, a speech from 2016. We are here in 2017 and there's no sign that he is far from the predictions. Only the part of the title saying that those will be "obsolete" is pretty off. :) Solar PV, as he said is a path of no return, and together with other renewables, I predict a surplus of energy in daytime in many places on earth. Simplifying the analysis, we ignore the price of Solar PV system. Therefore, the cost of power in the future is equivalent to the cost of energy storage. For anyone or any nation to be ahead, minimizing the cost of storing energy is paramount (benefits transportation).
Self driving cars and automotive industry in ten years is a little harder to predict. Though surely it will go electric, self-driving vehicles will undergo a lot of challenges. All it takes to bring it down is a video of self driving vehicle running over a child or pet and then it is back to zero. I see AI self driving vehicles being more prevalent in going around cities where it has designated stopping areas and lanes. I predict that a person of legal age is required for a car to move, else, the car will move at low speeds only limiting it for summoning a car from a parking space. Trucking will also have limitations where I think it will always require a person inside it for monitoring and unexpected downtime, or try avert an accident if any system fails.
Due to this and cheaper electric cars than ICE in the future, I feel that the number of cars will not go down but increase. With an electric- self driving vehicle, the cost of travel is a lot lower and allows the passenger to do something else than driving. This will provide incentive for people to choose a house that is further away from the city that costs less, is larger and allow more area for solar PV setup.
Fascinating presentation Tony. I'm looking forward to seeing your next updated presentation reflecting Musk's "Secret Master Plan pas deux" and the Gigafactory Grand Opening.
Solar in Australia is cheaper than transmission because no net metering. You buy retail and sell at 2/3 discount, and batteries are already cheaper than the arbitration.
Tony has always been substantially correct, but is a little off sometimes. He said at 29:11 that by 2022 the industry will be able to build a $20,000 EV. It's currently 2023, and the cheapest EV available is the Chevy Bolt at $27,000--- NOT $20,000. IJS.
Great presentation, well worth viewing. Bye bye ICE vehicles and good riddance to oil companies!
That $.05 for unsubsidized utility scale solar is now 3-4 cents... crazy how fast $H!t moves! :DAll hail the renewable revolution.
just 3 words: A-MAZ-ING!!!
Thanks so much for this talk, @Tony Seba! Subscribed :). I think what struck me the most was the breakdown of our automobile utilization... really eye-opening.
I did lose you at a couple points though: first with the fridge battery at the 7-Eleven (17:30), and again with the Zero Money Down Solar panels (45:16). Someone has to pay for that initial investment, right? Is the idea that in lieu of a down payment, the installation cost is paid over time out of the savings?
Thanks again!
I realize it's a late reply. But it are companies that lease/rent it out basically. They buy and install it for a monthly payment.
House owner gets cheaper electricity from owns roof production without having to worry with the upfront cost or maintenance. The company invests money for pursage and installment for a montly return like how most investments work :-)
My brain is on the wall right now. Buckle your seatbelts, the next decade and a half is going to be crazy!
very nice video!
I have a feeling its happening. RIGHT NOW :-O
If only our Norwegian government would open their eyes, we could all be part of this change, but as things look now everybody is just holding their breath for higher oil prices. Well what do we need higher oil prices for when nobody wants to buy gas and crude anymore in a decade? A lot of people are just walking around in denial at the moment.
64jcl a lot of ev.s in norway. and norway has renewables. u may not hear of these,weird
Super interesting video!
best video in the world
So true
Very enjoyable! Are we to conclude, however, that the world's energy challenges will essentially be overcome in the next 13 years?
mine Well, we still have to decarbonize space heating. Heat pumps are getting more efficient, but they're far more expensive than just burning something.
As nice as this sounds, truly autonomous vehicles will be further off than people expect. They are fine when the road and environment are normal. They still have issues when the car gets into a situation it hasn’t seen before or expect. We see CEO’s giving big promises but AI experts know there are some big problems to overcome.