I agree...the fact that economic realities will drive the change mean we're not relying on the good sense of everybody...even the idiots making negative comments on here will drive EVs one day soon - in a drive for cost savings if nothing else...check out a channel called Fully Charged
Ok so I am presenting a senior thesis tomorrow on why we should switch from gas vehicles to EV's and OMG this video has helped so much! I was concerned about the questions but not anymore...it is a 20 min paper and I am so ready now!
There are a few holes, though. His estimate of a 10X improvement in solar power and batteries is unrealistic in the case of batteries, and impossible in the case of solar. The best solar panels are around 26% efficient, and the Shockley-Queisser limit suggests that it will be difficult to get past 34%. Even if 100% efficiency were achieved, that would represent less than a 4X improvement, and 10X is mathematically impossible. This doesn't mean that 100% EV is impossible, just that nuclear and wind will have to play a larger role, and the transition will take longer and be more costly than Mr. Seba suggests.
@@magnuslarsson337 That metric usually doesn’t usually include the cost of backstopping solar with batteries or fossil fuel plants during the night. Neither does it include grid enhancements to allow long-range transmission (which will be required if renewables are to provide a large percentage of electrical power).
@@JimPrice Please try to understand instead of trying to misinterpret. If Tony says price of solar will improve by 10X, that means that the price of solar will improve by 10X, nothing else. You are the one trying to add that he would have included the cost of batteries in that cost as well, you, no one else.
Thank you Tony! This is the BEST TALK and I have been sharing it around the oil patch in Calgary Alberta Canada with zeel! Tony talks about the things I was telling the oil patch 6 years ago, but HE HAS THE DATA to back it up. Yeah! Technologies to watch for that will make this happen are the Vanadium Lithium Phosphate Battery for mobility, and for grid storage the Vanadium Flow Battery, and salt cavern batteries. I also like the amorphous carbon battery. In addition, I think the we have to start considering the land transportation systems and the electrical grid as ONE SYSTEM. Then we can redesign the entire thing to be completely carbon emission free using both a hydrogen highway and an electrical highway with the technology we have today. We have designed a system to do just that.... well.... a 10th draft of the the system.... it still needs some work. :)
Technological evolution, now entering the exponential curve, is rapidly moving societal structure and decision making away from political incompetence and corruption towards civilian participation and problem solving. Now, more than ever, every individual can and should choose, either actively or passively, to participate in this historical energetic shift, for the sake of our children and possible generations to come. Every choice matters, and every decision counts.
@Philippe Defossez said, "... away from political incompetence and corruption towards participation and decision making..." Everything in life is political, and there is only self-interest, not incompetence or corruption. When you learn to stop badmouthing others for their political beliefs (calling them incompetent or corrupt) *only then* can you move towards participation and decision making. Hating and devisiveness will not get you there.
sorry to be off topic but does someone know a trick to get back into an Instagram account?? I was dumb forgot the password. I appreciate any tips you can offer me!
So what happens to peak car usage. I know averaged over a day they don't get used much but right now we try to use a lot of them at the same time of the day.
th-cam.com/video/Ucp0TTmvqOE/w-d-xo.html According to what Tesla said there, if your job requires a precise time of arrival, then you probably want to own a Model 3 so you get first dibs. Once you're at work, you can let it go make you money until you want to go home. You could go into work early and demand peak pricing. Another thing is how aware the Tesla RideShare Network would be of where all the people are waiting and where they need to go, so chaining the next pickup near the last drop off, and routing via every possible road for efficiency is going to reduce the amount of traffic by a lot, and since it's fully automated they can pack cars into a smaller space on the road since networked cars can tailgate and draft without collision. I think in all reasonableness, we'll just adapt to a +/- 20 minute time of arrival and possibly automated car pooling (for a discount), augmented by telecommuting, relaxed employer fascism, etc. Tons of jobs are going to be automated away forever as well. Yang2020 btw. Just imagine turning up to work 20 minutes "late", yet you don't need 20 more minutes to de-stress from driving yourself into work in rush hour traffic. Plus you spent your commute doing all your facebooking and news reading, so you can skip that when you get to work as well. If you're a manager who can't see the benefits here, then you should probably be fired for a complete lack of situational awareness, and dictator tendencies.
Yes! Our collective intelligence can find incredible solutions to some of the challenges that we all face, globally. Tony's work and refined presentation provides a great platform to "inform" the masses about the disruption that is happening right now. We need the masses informed to ensure that the very wealthy corporate interests and political hacks do not derail these important changes in the course of our collective history. Tesla, and in particular Elon Musk are the first half of the visionaries or catalysts driving the change. Now we need the equally brilliant visionaries that help us define what people are for and how we can ensure a sustainable "environment" for all humans and living things. People equal to profits, governance truly of the people, for the people, by the people.
What is very disturbing is that Government Policy Makers are ignoring the data. Even if any have taken the trouble to at least listen to Seba, few are acting on it. Trump has done a complete 180-degree about-turn and is racing backwards as fast as he can. Fortunately, most Americans will continue to be forward-thinkers (even Republicans) and will drive the changes that are already happening. In the UK we suffer from a similar bunch of incompetent buffoon politicians, who are perhaps just as stupid as Donald Trump. The Chinese, however, have the whole thing sussed... Watch China become the world's #1 economic power by 2022...
If the policy makers would look at the facts...and Seba is likely closer than most, they would create jobs for this industry Many people are pushing for the US to invest in these industries, like Germany, Australia, China. I hope the free market moves quickly on many fronts. The oil-gas industry has so much $ to push back (look at the concessions Jerry Brown just had to make for the carbon offsets). We're at the tipping point 400+ppm now, when 350 was the limit. 90% of it has been absorbed in the ocean (acidification) and likely cant be removed and our corals are on mass die-off now...they are the "lungs" of the ocean and needed for fisheries (food for many).Like · Reply · 53 mins
An interesting note, that even Congress can be disrupted. Climate Change Lobby is building the Climate Solutions Caucus in congress. It now has as many REPUBLICAN members as the notorious Freedom Caucus. Trump and cronies may not get things all their way!!
This guy is like the Jesus of technological economics!... Seriously, does anyone else feel like hitting the streets and preaching the good word right now?
This is one of my favorite videos on TH-cam. Amazing confluence of transportation, energy, and business model. I think this is going to happen, and corporate social responsibility is going to be a catalyst for much of the growth in renewable energy.
There is no such thing as Corporate Responsibility they don't give a FUCK until they are made too. Kicking and screaming, socialism, communism and litigating claiming victimization. Then They'll Demand their Tax Breaks and Subsidies while eliminating Domestic workers and Claiming it is necessary to be Profitable.
Kevin Dinh Seba's prodictions are already happening in Australia The snowtown battery-wind has killed off peaker power. At $4 a kwh at peak in a heat wave, i dont think so. Brown coal gone. Solar is 7cents now, transmission is 12cents, seba 2016. Electric cars are already travelling our freeway with no hands. Watch blocks of cars and every now and then u will see an electric car. The tramsition is in Australia now.
Crackpot is what we're calling MacArthur fellows now? You're missing his entire point about disruption - it happens faster than most people expect, including industry "experts", hence the horse-car analogy he started with; this is ex post evidence. Yes, BEVs are only about 1% of vehicle sales in the US today, but have you been paying attention to what's going on in the automotive industry? Tesla received 400,000 pre-orders (with $1000 deposit - and yes I know it's refundable but getting that many people to do anything is remarkable) for a car people haven't even seen yet. GM (Bolt EV), Hyundai (Ioniq), Nissan (updated Leaf), and many other mainstream manufacturers are releasing actual compelling BEVs, with usable range that are affordable. DC fast charging is in it's infant stages and already meeting the needs for most people. PLUS, you miss the entire point about autonomous vehicles accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles given their need for high efficiency and durability. I somewhat agree with your comment about trucks, trains, airplanes, etc., but their contribution to CO2 emissions (and therefore fossil fuel consumption) isn't nearly as large as road transportation - www.wri.org/sites/default/files/us-flowchart.jpg When you say you'll buy one in the future when it's feasible, what do you mean? There are compelling and affordable options already on the market today. You can invest in taxis, Blockbuster, Kodak, typewriters, and buggy manufacturers if you don't think disruption is coming; I'll be investing in EVs, AVs, solar, batteries, and mobility services.
Um, well, you either don't believe the trends described, or you think there's some kind of hard threshold effect which is going to stop the extrapolation, or you don't understand what exponential growth means. That's ironic, since the very concept of "discount rate" depends upon it.
Steven Sherman - agreed, though I also add Jeremy Rifkin and his Third Industrial Revolution plan to the mix. Lovins and Rifkin (and Musk?) are doing the things Seba is talking about. :) I've been 100% EV for about 6 years so far and it's the least expensive driving I've done in the 40 years I've been driving. No plug? No deal.
These technologies should be huge for emerging countries such in Africa and Asia, allowing easy access to a unlimited amount of renewable energy in a accessible manner.
Big challenges for utilities to accommodate non-peak generating and distributed storage around the existing, old grid. Major upgrades on the way. Lithium prices crashed this year. Hard to guess exactly where the investment and profits will flow with all this change. Switch away from oil will be hopeful for everyone living on the coast. Less carbon and less flooding over time. Looks like now is the right time to get out of oil energy stocks! I drove a friend's Tesla last year. Nobody will want a gas car once the infrastructure is in place to support electrics. No maintenance. Super quiet. Incredible acceleration. Way fun. The model 3 Tesla with dual drive (AWD) actually gets better mileage than the two wheel drive version. Seems impossible, but because one motor is tuned for high efficiency at lower speeds and the other is tuned for high efficiency at higher speeds, it is. Amazing engineering. We live in a time of wonderful innovation. So cool. I wonder if President Pinocchio or anyone in his cabinet and administration are watching videos like this while talking about bringing back coal jobs and chanting "drill baby drill?" The tax cuts goosed the economy, but the Trump tariffs are throwing stones and sand into the gears of global trade. Crazy policy. China is moving forward at a fast pace because many of their leaders are scientists, economists and engineers. We could learn something and start electing more politicians with STEM backgrounds.
Luckily 80% of EV charging will happen overnight during non-peak periods. If every car was instantaneously converted to an EV tomorrow that would only add approximately 15 % total KWh demand on a daily basis much of which would be nicely distributed in the overnight period. We got to get out of the old mode of thinking that people are going to go to the corner charge station to charge up. The majority of charging will occur while you are sleeping
It's not rocket science. Even Non-scientist Indian Leaders know this and are actively pushing for 100% EV by 2030(optimistic) and coming up with new bigger Solar installations for power generation.
Now in Feb. 2024 the first car in Europe is available for 23.000€ (25k$) with 320 km (200 mile) range, which is a delay of about 3 years to Tony Sebas curve at 1:03:00. Not a precision landing but overall a very acceptable forecast I would say.
@@kampfzerG It's called "making hay while the sun shines" Meanwhile, *Government policy* is shifting away from fossil fuel, vehicle manufacturers are panicking, *new* grid generation is overwhelmingly green technology, (AND it's cheaper to build, with cheaper energy) Virtual Power Plants are emerging, using individually owned solar and batteries, etc, etc, etc. . The higher the oil price now, the larger the crash.
This is probably one of the best and most important videos anywhere on youtube. I have watched it multiple times and agree with the vast majority of the message.
What are you reading that gives you that impression? I'd like to peruse that. I never know quite where to go since Seba does not seem to have an up-to-date site. Are we going down the predicted road?
If we use autonomous, on-demand cars, it sounds like we'll all be able to get by with fewer vehicles on the road. But we all need rides at the same time, twice a day, during rush hour. Besides different start times for different businesses or ride-sharing, do you envision a way around this problem? Thank you.
Unless people's usage habits change, you end up with the same number of vehicles in operation at any given time. Only the number of parked vehicles, declines.
@@williamrowe5313 Said "... I'm retiring (from oil & gas Industry) in ten years.) Good luck; I hope you make it. Things are changing very rapidly. The US government has plans to have laid-off oil workers go to west Texas and plug thousands of oil wells to stop the escape of methane. That should take years to do.
@@acmefixer1 I work in the Construction side of Oil and Gas, While i agree without a doubt the production of Gasoline/Diesel/Fuel additives etc. will go away over time, but 60% use of the crude and natural gas we use goes towards house hold items... produced by Polyethylene units and Chemical plants. until you decide to stop taking medicine, coloring your hair, wearing deodorant, and needing the plastics to build these cars... the "oil and gas" industry wont necessarily go away. and with the growing need for these and the constant upgrading required for environmental reasons... the construction will continue. but yes, I do agree the production of combustion uses will go away.
@@jackmedfeld3424 What people issue? If you're talking about inequality like poor are getting poor and rich are getting richer, there is already a developing technology which "supposedly" is supposed to fix that and that is called "blockchain" my friend. And like Tony Seba said, once these technologies converge, "boom"! Let's move on to solve the next humanity's problem.
I'm looking forward to a transportation future that is far less reliant on automobiles and even less reliant on automobile ownership. As a result, I'm predisposed to being convinced by this argument. That said, I'm TOTALLY convinced by this argument.
Since this is a 4 years old comment. Do you still agree with Mr. Seba? Is everything still going in the direction of his prediction for you? Just asking because I am just into this right now. I also have a thought that it would be better to use those automatic self-driving technology for something like “rail-less cabin”. Where company owns it, but every membership(monthly subscription or tickets/chips) could use it. Could think about it as Taxi without any driver. You got everything like Tesla, but everyone and I really mean “everyone” who’s working/living in the city could afford to transport around. You use the car just to shopping, or could park it outside of the city. I have always been on the other side of this “evolution” ideas. This video help me to understand it better. But I still think that when they say “everyone could afford”, they are talking about some office worker in a quite sustainable company. I mean, It’s true that no one travel by horse anymore even in the country area. But it might have took them somewhere from 10-30 years to change. In my country for instance, they still use the car from 20 years ago in the country side. And those car are probably doesn’t exist in Europe or America anymore even 20 years ago. Every country have different rate of growing. Some Southeast Asia country are 10 years behind, and another extra 10 years behind for the countryside. While this is a global change, but the statistics of changes that they use are still related to their country most of the time.
Tony Seba, a wise man looking into the future. Mr. Toyoda of Toyota NEEDS to watch this As soon as possible to understand that EVs ARE the future, whether he likes it or not!
+Thaylor Harmor I don't think it will be, because in arid regions there is very little water in the air. You can buy a dehumidifier right now (it's thermodynamically pretty much as good as it gets) and see how much water you get per kWh... it's very little for tremendous amounts of energy. TH-camr Thunderf00t shows you the rough calculations in his debunking videos of "water seer" or "fontus self-filling water bottle" ... Going off economics, it will always remain cheaper to transport the water than to scrape it out of the air (especially with autonomous, electric vehicles).
Pretty exciting stuff, bring it on! Id also like Tony to hear Tony talk about this might benefit the poorer people of the world. Let's also uplift them with this stuff, and just not the wealthiest countries. Think of an expectant mother who can take a self-driving car to the hospital for herself or children, or a family who don't have to clear and burn the local forest for heating and stoves. Food production. etc etc etc I'd also like to add we may need to do contingency planning also and create some disaster backups for a world that is 95-100% solar. A world on a few days reserve energy is quite vulnerable. Perhaps we need to ensure we stockpile accessible natural gas (or better solar generated H2) reserves and generation for calamatous events. Any large volcanic eruptions or moderate asteroid impacts (they can happen) etc, asides from the initial disaster issues, will cause major problems in the world. Even if its a 20% generation deficit if we don't have other stores of energy to tap into. Think heating, food, transport, lighting, etc. Exciting days ahead.
I appreciate this video and its insights. One quick comment is that cars have scrap value and you won't have to pay people to take a used car off of your hands. Simply take it to the scrap yard and sell it for $500 or more. Thank you Tony Seba for your research!
It seems that we will work into a hybrid of ownership and "shared" utilization of vehicles. We have a love for the experiences that ownership of vehicles brings, and there are many, but there is no reason why both cannot exist together in a new way. The idea of solar power and solar cars dominating the way we power our transportation in a very short time is very exciting. Think how much quieter our world will be!
26:00 lol all new vehicles (cars, tractors, buses, trucks) electric by 2025... We are mid-2021, they'd better hurry. "But that's not what's gonna happen"... because all cars will be self-driving says Tony Seba. Then they'd definitively better hurry.
This is an absolute delight. I had the pleasure of reading something similar, and it was an absolute delight. "The Hidden Empire: Inside the Private Worlds of Elite CEOs" by Adam Skylight
I think the only thing holding back a full EV transition from all the manufacturers now is that they dont have access to enough batteries to deliver them. Tesla understood this a long time ago and hence started their Gigafactory with more to come online in the years ahead, perhaps even to supply the other car manufacturers. There might very well be a Kodak among the biggest car brands today, the ones that have lagged behind for too long to even get contracts on battery manufacturing.
It makes all kinds of economic and practical sense for shared A-EVs to be an upcoming disruption, but my prediction is that it still won't happen as quickly as he suggests, at least in a lot of North America... for much the same reason that the already existing technology of car pooling (or even public transportation in general) is underutilized in many cities. People in North America like the convenience and independence of their own vehicle. If they want to go out for whatever reason, they want to do it *now* - not wait for a shared A-EV to come to them. I'm not saying it's the right attitude, but I'd be very surprised if people quickly develop the patience necessary to share that kind of infrastructure, even if it makes economic sense to do so. I can absolutely see shared A-EVs replacing taxi and ride sharing services, and there of course will be some who own their own car who will switch their mindset. But I predict the S curve in this case would level out at no higher than 50% adoption for decades. On the other hand, I do expect (and hope) that A-EVs in general are close at hand.
I wonder how many people will loose their jobs in the US from automation. And needs re-education. How many cars are even really self-owned in the US ? Lots of them are financed, right ? How many people in the US have very little money in their bank account.
Having the advantage of looking back to these prediction for the future of 2022 it is clear that simply pointing to highly successfully disruptions of the past doesn't prove that the direction we are going in now will follow suit. None of the failed industries and new ideas that never got off the ground were mentioned that would have reminded us all that most ideas, even some very good ones, never got the chance to see the light of day. Unfortunately, politicians will be the ones that chose what technology gets developed because they control the capitol. Engineers will not be involved nearly as much as they should be because they will point out problems and issues that will prove inconvenient to the corrupt ambitions of politicians and the chosen few that will become incredibly wealthy. Case in point is how ethanol is mandated to be used in 10% of our gasoline. This is a negative energy source that requires more energy to produce than it will ever deliver. It does however make certain states and a few people very wealthy at the expense of everyone else.
I am watching in 2024. Except for the self driving I think this held up very well. The self driving was probably the only technology that needed technical breakthroughs, so I am not surprised that prediction has not worked out - yet. I think it will work eventually, it is just a question of when exactly.
Btw, in Norway 24% of all new cars were EVs for August 2017. 19% was PHEVs. In some counties like the westernmost one an amazing 42% of all new cars were EVs (where almost 10% of all cars on the roads are EVs). Change is coming fast, classic S-curve adoption as Tony Seba mentions in his talk (and has been for a while now).
Those sort of EV sales figures are what happens when you tax the crap out of gasoline and diesel to the point where people don't have the flexibility of personal vehicle ownership... until you finally make available something which doesn't run on either. So now personal vehicle ownership is skyrocketing in Norway, and new problems are resulting from it.
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 how does the system you describe, adjust for the many situations where EV implementation is impossible.? Where individuals/business owners are forced to continue using the transportation solution whichever meets their needs in every way except fuel type and fuel cost? Do we allow that to just cripple them, putting them and their employees out of work? Fully implementation of Ev' s is probably a 25 year project, and millions could fall between the cracks in such a scenario.
In the UK, natural gas is about 3.9p/KWhr. My gas boiler consumes, when running, 35KW. If it was running on electricity, it would need a supply of over 150 amps at 230v, in addition to my other electrical supply requirements. If everybody made similar conversions to electric heating, the national grid and domestic supply cabling would need to be doubled or trebled in size. Now add in the requirements for a coupler of car charging points and the requirement rises again.This is a massive infrastructure requirement that will be difficult to provide economically. For electric cars, you also need to add a new tax to compensate for the lost tax on petrol sales (or other taxes will need to rise to compensate).
You either have a very large house or a very leaky one - or both. You should spend some time and money more energy efficient - i.e. tighten up the air barrier. That would likely cut your energy need by 1/2 to 2/3. The other point Tony was making was that your power generation is on your roof or in your front or back garden - not being generated hundreds or thousands of miles away so your suppky cables are maybe 10M long.
Hi Alan, I think the conversion will be to hybrid boilers, not straight electric. Have you seen hybrid heat pump water heaters? We've been installing them here is the US. Pretty impressive.
you can also have an unvented hot water cylinder with twin immersion heaters and solar thermal , you get a 25yr guaranteed 70 litre a minute hot water system.
Generally agree with Tony except for the future of cars including EV cars. Tony makes an assumption that cars/vehicles only meet transportation needs. This is flawed because cars and vehicles meet other needs including identity needs, recreation needs and self actualisation needs. A look at Singapore or Tokyo, which are arguably among the world's most transportationally connected cities, the car ownership is not reduced because it fulfills more than transportation needs that has economic value added of its own reckoning. Otherwise Tony's analysis on the natural decay of fossil fuels is s spot on. Only matter would be the aviation industry... What's the fossil fuel substitute there?
Yeah as far as the aviation thing goes, it took 16 months to get around the globe the last time the solar powered Impulse 2 flew. At that rate, transporting a jumbo jet full of people to Hawaii from Vancouver would take 76 years.
Ngata, what Tony is also not including in his assumptions is the increase in need for electrical power and how it will be supplied. The energy density of gasoline/diesel is much greater than electrical energy. To your point, there will be privately owned AVs but there is not a charging infrastructure that will appear in 5-10 years. How many people are going to wait 1-2 hours to recharge a vehicle? Tony is a typical theortician who misses a lot of practical details that we know can turn into the devil. I don't know how old you are but during the 70's people like Tony were projecting we would be running out of oil by 1980-1990. How did that turn out.
Academic thinkers (which he is) never take into account the human factor. Of course deep down he wishes that not so many humans exist. I have read academic papers advocating that.
Actually Gary, the reason why fossil oil and the petroleum industry continued for as long as it has is more political and financial. The Petroleum industry is worth $trillions and dominated by US and European petroleum companies that distribute, trade and value add to the commodity. They were not willing to let this nasty polluting fuel source die when there was such a truckload of money to be made. and look where it has landed the world? among others the Petrodollar-fueled Islamic terrorism and Islamist political activism in the the West intent to dismantling Western Civilisation.
But Jack, really, I've met and engaged with Tony Seba personally, and he is not an enviro-Nazi as many Greens are. He is a scientist and futurist sincerely trying to improve the world as we know it.
First of all the solid state batteries in the works does not use cobalt. Secondly everyone always calls out resources necessary for the EV revolution but act like the fossil fuel/ICE construct is made from fairy dust with no resource intensity.
Fascinating presentation. Among the many positives, perhaps the drop in oil use will finally remove the climate threat from the Kochs and their tar sands. However, there is an energy issue which Seba did not include in his talk. Generally residential power generation from solar, and power storage using batteries, isn’t a big deal (although there are people in every neighborhood who scream NIMBY). There is an issue, however, which Seba did not include in his talk: the space density of power production and storage. An industrial facility like metal smelting can require gigawatts of power; for instance, Bahrain’s Alba Smelter has a generating capacity of 2.3 gigawatts. Given the fact that an acre of solar panels produces ~2.8GWh/year, do the arithmetic and be surprised by how many acres of panels would be required. Similarly, battery energy storage requires a large amount of materials and space. Space used means land used, and sufficient contiguous land may not be available. That means any high-power industrial facility that wants to use energy from solar or wind, is going to have to have transmission lines from somewhere else. It also means that an energy storage technology which requires less space and materials than batteries (e.g. rail gravity storage, compressed air) might be required. It is comforting to hear that this Disruption will make transportation cheaper, since none of us are going to have jobs!
Obviously you did not get it.....solar will not just be produced on the ground and rooftops but also from every wall of buildings and he did not even mention windturbines, geothermal and tidal at all......
Jean Paul Azzurro Obviously you did not do the arithmetic. NREL says 2.8 acres of fixed-tilt panels are required to generate 1 GWh energy over the course of a year. Suppose you are running a smelter that requires 2 GW of power continuously. That works out to 17.5 TWh of energy over a year (8760 hours). What do you get if you divide 17.5*10^12 by 1*10^9 ? That is the number of 2.8 acre parcels you need - land, walls, whatever.
Ed Arnold - you're stuck on only one facet of renewable generation, appear to be ignoring the load-shifting ability of storage, and might be forgetting that the available energy resources are many orders of magnitude greater than we need. If you care to, learn about Jeremy Rifkin's Third Industrial Revolution and how it's being implemented in Germany, the entire EU, and China. Storing excess wind/solar/tidal generation in the natural gas grid as hydrogen means the grid formerly used for natural gas can store enough energy to provide the entire country's electricity, transportation, building heat and hot water, and industrial heat for a full six months. A single smelter in that environment is mouse nuts. Also look at the Rocky Mountain Institute's Reinventing Fire process, which is also being implemented in the US and in other parts of the world. Same result.
How do you know hydrogen can be stored in the natural gas grid? Containing H2 is more difficult than containing CH4. It is not clear what you mean by "available energy resources are many orders of magnitude greater than we need". There is plenty of coal and natural gas energy, but not that much low-carbon energy, unless you want to count nuclear.
Yes... there is the apparent conundrum of power needs in certain industrial processes (aluminium smelting and steel blast furnaces). But in steel, for example, arc furnaces are already a preferred steel-making technology than coke-fired systems. They are smaller, easier and faster to commission (and operate) and the chemistry for carbonising steel (previously a reaction of the coke with the metal) is rapidly advancing. Cars will increasingly use lighter alloys of aluminium - which will give way to carbon-fibre. Car panels will be 3D printed - not moulded in a huge press. Globally, we are already seeing progressive decline in the steel industry. In the not-too-distant future, most steel needs will be met through recycling (old cars and their redundant ICE engines, transmissions and drive-trains). Another vast source of recyclable steel will be in the trans-continental and refining plant piping of the oil and gas industries. In fact, the day Trump cuts the ribbon to open his planned Keystone pipeline, he'll have to fight his way through the mass of scrap-metal merchants who've turned out to dismantle it and cart it away...
44:29 "80% fewer cars". I doubt it. Most cars are on the road at two particular times of every weekday - 8am and 5pm. Even with autonomous cars as a service, you still need to meet that needed capacity. If you could magic cars out of thin air, maybe that 80% figure would be right, but unless something else happens (staggered work start times, etc.) you're going to need at least 40% of the cars that are on the road now.
37:30 Robotaxi idea is highlighted here in 2017. Musk only mentions it first time to the public in Teslas 2019 autonomy day presentation. So its not such a half baked idea - others thought of it years ago and Tesla will try to implement it first. I suspect they have been working towards this concept for some years - otherwise the $Bs R&D investments in autonomy hardware/software would not pay back if it was just for individuals to use 4% of the year. These guys think way ahead of the rest of us - startling
Nearly two years old, so according to Seba, the revolution is only three years away. I really do hope he's right, but I'm not entirely sure that we'll make it in time. But I have no doubt that it is the future he's describing, though we have to wait a few more years.
Fantastic talk and very impressive! At least all politicians should be forced to watch it twice. (at first it would be a bit much information to process) On the cost side, what are the chances for success for nuclear FUSION power plants (R&D for decades)? Any chance at all after that solar+storage disruption?
It's on 57:51 which is Utility Scale Solar. It's a Solar farm that will feed energy to the high density population city. Basically, people in apartment won't have to put up solar panel by themselves, they just get a cheaper electric bill when your Electric company move to Solar.
Mr Seba got the cellphone projection wrong. The reason the forecast he noted was low; was bandwidth of cell phones was then very limited; you could only have a voice conversation or very slow modem. The reason it got to 109 million was AT&T. AT&T partnered with Apple; to vastly improve the bandwidth of "cellular" communications to provide for a wireless cellular network capable of using the internet. Apple made a small touch screen pocket computer called an i"phone" that was able to bring users mobile internet. Without the collaboration by the AT&T, he says didn't participate in the digital expansion; there wouldn't have been one.
Conference in 2017 of Tony Seba, prophet of techno-solutionism, "expert in technological disruptions for 40 years" (??), whose theory is that the car and fossil fuel industry (oil, gas, coal) is on the verge of collapse, and that we are about to tip over into a paradise of 100% autonomous vehicles, 100% electric energy, 100% solar. And this for purely economic reasons: no need for subsidies, the new technologies are so irresistible that it will very soon make no economic sense to preserve the old ones. Those who do not believe in this theory are labelled as "mainstream propaganda". But the good thing is that Tony Seba puts his guts on the table with precise predictions in the very short term, so we can frequently check where we are in relation to his prophecy, the logic of which is obvious to anyone with a brain. Minute 26: Tony Seba claims that by 2025 (at worst 2027, he's not that far off) 100% of new land vehicles (cars but also trucks, tractors, buses) sold in the world will be electric. Where do we stand? According to the International Energy Agency (probably one of those mainstream propaganda organs) the number of electric CARS sold in the world did increase between 2017 and 2018, but then stagnated around 2.2 million per year over 2018-2020. 2018 market share of electric cars: 2.3 2019 : 2,5% 2020 : 3,2% That's not so bad, however we'll have to hurry up to reach 100% within 4 years (and we're not even talking about trucks and tractors). www.iea.org/.../global-electric-car-sales-by-key... It gets even better. Minute 43, Tony Seba announces that from 2021 on, millions of autonomous vehicles will hit the roads all over the world. By 2025, it will make absolutely NO SENSE to buy a car, we will all be driving in autonomous electric car-sharing ("Transport as a Service", TaaS), the car industry will collapse because it will sell 4 times less cars, and by 2030 we will be driving 100% in TaaS (don't worry in peripheral France, we will come and get you too, no one will be left on the side of the road, the geniuses of the metropolises won't forget you). Admittedly, 2017 was a bit of a hype year around the autonomous vehicle, everyone since then has been able to step back and re-evaluate its prospects. But there's more. Minute 51, Tony Seba makes us review our high school classes on geometric sequences. Installed solar power capacity will double every two years, as will solar's share of the energy mix. In 2017, Tony Seba claimed that the share of solar was 1.5% (this was true for the share in the electricity mix, but false for the energy mix, where the share of solar in primary energy was 0.5%... this confusion is often maintained in these circles). Then attention Tony enters in trance, and invites us to count with him: 2019: we will be at 3%. 2021 : 6% 2023 : 12% 2025 : 24%. At this point, it would already mean that solar energy would produce, for example, ALL the world's electricity. Everyone will appreciate to what extent it seems plausible that within 4 years, the world will close its 4200 GW of controllable electricity production capacity based on coal and gas (a figure that has been trending upwards for 170 years, even if there could be at least a slight dip in coal over 2019-2020... to be confirmed, as China is massively reopening coal-fired power plants to rapidly revive its economy). 2027 : 48% 2029: 96% (but he recognizes that he may be wrong by 2-3 years and that we may have to wait until the early 30's to be at 100% solar). What has been the reality since this conference by Tony Seba? 2019: 1% of the global energy mix, or one third of Tony Seba's prediction, knowing that one can consider with intellectual honesty, without being labeled mainstream propaganda, that the first few % are easier to grab than the last 50%. What happened? According to IRENA (the International Renewable Energy Agency, another anti-solar mainstream propaganda body in the pay of the oil lobby), here is the evolution of the world's cumulative solar energy capacities: 2016: 291 GW 2017: 384 GW 2018: 483 GW (not a doubling in 2 years, while we are only at the beginning) 2019: 581 GW (even less a doubling in 2 years) 2020: 707 GW (even less than a doubling in 2 years, but we have still multiplied by 2.4 in 4 years, which is already not bad) www.irena.org/.../Capacity.../Statistics-Time-Series To be continued... Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
OK Let's continue! SEPTEMBER 2022 . Tesla is now building 42 Megapaxks per week. Uprated capacity of 3.9MWh per pack For context, comparing the 80MWh pack referenced by Tony (88 days) They now exceed the equivalent of TWO in 7 DAYS. That's 8.5 GWh per year and they're building a factory to scale to *40GWh* 500 of the referenced installation. . Game over.
I'm not too sure about the individual ownership. Sure it makes sense, especially in big cities, but are people really willing to give up the ownership? Where do they leave their valuables? What's about camping trips? These days many people take public transportation for work already and yet they still own a car because it's handy.
Wow. you were lucky enough to get a PRAP? For what week? I have known people who have waited years to get a PRAP. WHO DO YOU KNOW? Personal Rural Access Permits are mostly handed out to people with connections.
Do people really want to pay $25,000 for a place to leave their sunglasses? Ownership is only an issue if you think of these replacements in the same way you think of your existing car with "ownership" issues. These are "spaces". They can evolve in different ways from existing cars. There can be "meeting room" cars, "overnight sleeper" cars, automated delivery vehicle cars, coffee shop cars, all tailored to specific use cases. A standard slot for your hand luggage could address your valuables. Specialised long distance vehicles with 4 wheel drive, beds, cookers and toilet facilities that you book for 10 days use whenever you need them address your camping trips. Your vehicle subscription App will also let you step up or step out to other special use vehicles. Got a graduation? Get a limo for the trip. Moving flat? Get a van instead. Got 5 kids going to separate schools? Get 5 cars to deliver them simultaneously. And of course the very wealthy will still own their own vehicles because money is no object. But if all your transport needs ever can get addresses by your own personal self driving taxi App for $2-3,000 per year then most people will find that more affordable than the current situation of owning a $25,000 car, buying petrol & insurance, paying for parking, buying train season tickets for work and bus season tickets for the kids to go to school and an occasional taxi when when you've had some drinks or you and the wife want to go to different places ........ If you own your car for status then you will get the Rolls Royce subscription service instead of the General Motors or Kia subscription service. When a self drive car is more convenient, less fuss and crucially costs 80% less than owning a car, then I think most people will take the money and leave the ownership issue behind.
Camping trips!? What about my surveying equipment I use almost daily? Or contractors tools and ladders? If all you carry around is a cellphone, maybe. But there is much more inertia for many of the things that daily living currently uses, and existing infrastructure imposes, than his models account for. That said, I'm persuaded about EV v ICE and Grid migration to Solar/Battery/Super Caps energy adoption.
Can someone explain the fact that the German consumer pays 3x per KWh what we do her in the USA. UK is 2x. True, I personally observed huge wind farms in DE while living there last year but I realized why they don’t take 10min showers like we do here in USA!!
Nice lecture with a nice THEORY but with an important (if not the most important) parabel left out: TAXES. Also no word on the availabillity or amount of raw materials needed for these new technologies, which ofcourse will have influence on prices.
AndriesMulti It may have been a" theory" 7 years ago when he started these lectures, but he certainly appears to be in front of the curve in every prediction he made at that time. You mention cost of materials however you should offset the cost of materials that aren't used such as the large amounts of steel and aluminium which aren't required. Assuming the bodywork of a nice car and NPV are roughly equivalent the amount of iron, Steel, aluminium and other metal used in the engine, transmission, drivetrain cooling system and exhaust system of an ICE car should be taken into account, together with the energy required to Forge and machine these components.
@41:44 And remember. This $1000/year Robo taxi service is not going to be some smelly, dirty public bus type of transport. It will be 100% customized, fast, safe, reliable, inexpensive, 24/7 walk away type of service. @56:10 And look at what they had to go through to get to that God particle... With solar you're slapping some ever cheaper, panels/shingles on your roof... This talk is aging like fine wine.
I just wondering why Solar City bankrupted? Currently to install 10 Kwt solar panels cost $36,000 that can be paid off in 20 years if your average electric bill $150/month . Not make sense at all.
39:30-39:48. I disagree with the individual ownership analysis. Also, it seems the presentation is skewed towards only the vehicles for personal and private use without taking into consideration that of ground freight transportation, earth-moving vehicles used in construction, farming vehicles and equipments, air freight, private business jets, the shipping industry. So to think because of the awesome and bold progress made in the electric vehicle industry with batteries, oil or hydrocarbons ( natural gas) are done with or going to be obsolete (too bad we are already in 2020, so that prognostication failed) is just short- sighted. Not talking of manufacturing of cement, production of the derivatives from crude oil in the form of biomedical plastics, bitumen for road construction, fertilizer production for food, steel production, etc? Great presentation generally on the disruptiveness of electric vehicles up until it entered into the energy generation arena. Solar is great but it’s limited where intermittency is concerned, especially in the temperate regions of the world during the winter months, so it fails to be the all in all answer to the reliable green energy future we seek. Listening to the presentation shows our failure to often acknowledge the sharp dichotomy that exists in the application of Moore’s law (originally theorized for the cost of transistors) in the world of electronics or computers (upon which the EV industry is built) and the innovation of or prospecting for new energy sources to achieve either net zero or new forms of energy. Also we shouldn’t restrict ourselves to only the disruption that solar offers, since its limited(depending on the part of the globe you find yourself ) the disruptiveness of third generation and forth generation designs of safe nuclear energy coupled with modular designs that come with Molten Salt reactors cannot be underestimated. I believe we’ve demonized enough in our quest to achieve zero emissions in our green energy generation mix. We shouldn’t shoot ourselves in the foot and put all our eggs in one or a few baskets when the intermittency of these sources are staring us in the face. The nuclear energy for the generation of electricity and as fuel for heating our homes and running our industries (when that electricity is cheap enough. And history has proven that the price stability per Kwh of nuclear is reliable) today is not the the nuclear energy of yesteryears. The technology exists today to harness that energy safely and reliable with zero potential for harm to humans or the environment.
58:20 this guy is literally comparing prices of certain energy sources with completely different units… I just did the math with the gas price and it is literally about three times cheaper than the solar price if you take the values shown on his sheet. If anyone know better please correct me but this screams bs in my opinion. Edit: Note that I compared the 5cts/kwh to the 5$/MMBtu. My result is 1,7cts/kwh for gas.
Jack Medfeld I disagree. While I agree in general w Seba and I agree that solar and autonomous vehicles will eventually take over the market, I do not believe TaaS will disrupt transportation in 10-15 years as he predicts. His argument assumes people act with near complete economic rationality, and people don’t. People make uneconomical choices all the time. People will not quickly give up the autonomy of personal vehicle ownership. I think that will take a generation or more.
It will not be a problem. You order your vehicle and it arrives in minutes. Since the cost is so low, there will be excess quantity of vehicles available to every user so the car can probably arrive before you have time to find your purse, put on your hat and coat or go to the bathroom. People will indicate the kind of vehicle needed and the computers will know how many are needed for each use. Imagine people with kids needling car seats. The cars that arrive for them will have car seats already installed. Also, with the self driving car, you can simply order what you need on line and the drug store or grocery store will send it to you in self driving car. You may be able to avoid the urgent trip completely. If you have a medical emergency, it is MUCH better to have the self driving car pick you up. Who wants to drive when you don't feel good? Besides, in a few years, we will all be wearing devices that will tell us if something is wrong with our bodies so we have more time to repair it - or fix it ourselves.
It may take a little longer in areas with lower population density but it will be so fast in the cities, your heads will turn. Why? Because young people love living in cities and are most likely to adapt. My kids who live in Chicago have never owned a car. They use public transportation, uber and zip cars. Imagine how many more people will abandon cars when the cost of uber drops precipitously. It will be like having your own chauffeur. Who would hang on to their cars instead of using a chauffeur? There will always be people who will opt to own a car. Workmen who need to have their tools with them, rich people who are not sensitive to price (for the same reason they own houses all over the place). I am wondering how this might affect public transportation. Imagine self driving cars that you share with others? The price could drop below the cost of public transportation. The biggest barrier to this happening is government since politicians will have difficulty understanding how it works and will worry about the safety of self driving cars.
Vanadium Redux Flow Batteries. If the idea of energy disruption in the form of electricty storage systems intrigues you then check out VRFBs. The main attraction is they have a much longer life span than Lithium Ion batteries.
In general, I agree with what he is saying ... that disruptions follow an S-curve and that technologies can compress time and timing of events. This confluence of technologies is going to create a tipping point in some regard. Will it be re-shaped like Tony is suggesting ... I think that is impossible to predict, but I do believe that change is upon us. What I don't think Tony is considering (I didn't hear it in his presentation) are the counter-forces of other trends in politics, actions by oil producers, car makers, and all sorts of established interests. For instance, we have already seen a disruption in the oil patch with the shale revolution, and extraction cost are continuing to come down and more efficient. I think that trend will also continue. Lastly, Tony doesn't discuss any of the unintended consequences of some of these disruptions, which will reset the trajectory of some of these trends he is extrapolating. For instance, the trend he suggest of going to EV, what is the backlash and environmental consequences of huge battery disposal, the accelerated mining of Li-ion? I believe Mr Seba is right ultimately, I just question his timeline and the effect of the eventual counter forces due to unintended consequences which that will also certainly occur.
Some oil companies are recognizing that they are energy companies and are transitioning to PV and other forms, and they certainly have the capital to invest heavily. There are also many people doing R&D on other better batteries that don't use lithium.
Of course there will be actions by special interests. There always are. The fight to keep lead in gasoline was big, as was the fight to hamper warnings about cigarette smoking. These situations take counter efforts by a concerned citizenry who are not heavily influenced by the special interests. That is somewhat lacking these days, judging from the high percentage of client deniers we still have.
Wish you focused less on the speaker and more on the slides. The way this is currently done, I can't see the slides, which look like they've got good content too! Maybe next time more slides, less following speaker
So....Here it is may 2018 and Saudi Arabia is signing a financial deal worth 200 billion with Softbank to build a 200 GigaWatt Solar installation. Its going to cover 5000 sq miles of desert. The equivalent of 200 mid sized nuclear reactors. They are building their own infrastructure to build the panels. It would not surprise me if they are doing the same for storage. Nvidia? Now has a Petaflop system the size of a foot stool. Im starting to wonder if maybe even Tony has under estimated....
Geothermal uses 80% less energy and it works anywhere not built on solid rock. Solar can also be used for heating with the advance phase change materials now entering the marketplace that store thermal energy very efficiently. We have evacuated tube technology that is capable of boiling water even on a cloudy day at -30C from solar radiation. Wind and solar are BOTH dirt cheap today. Less than 4 cents/kWh everywhere without subsidies. We have 5 contracts this year that came in at less than 2 cents. The disruption is already happening. 56% of all new cars sold in Norway last year were electric. Everywhere EV sales are up 40% while all other cars are in decline.
Great talk. Either I missed or he didn't cover the costs to transition to solar/batteries and the reality that most of will always want a car in the garage ready for us on a moments notice if we have the luxury of a space for it. Anyone else struggling with the term God Parity?
God Parity doesn't do it for me, but I can see how it's derived from Grid Parity. How long do you think it will take for a car to arrive if all cars are automated, electric and shared ?
what I mean is - now a year has passed....so how does the current situation match the expectations? Are we ahead, are we behind or are we spot on for the 2021-2025 disruption marker?
@@ZanZanDK Tony has given many talks over the years and will probably continue to do so. His value as a consultant depends heavily on his accuracy. So far, he's done very well, based on his predictions from talks in 2013 and 2014.
Michelangelo Buonarroti I agree. And the numbers don't lie. However this talk is now about two years old, and according to the estimate we should hit the disruption in three years. What could be interesting is to see if the numbers are still on track, or if we have slowed down (or increased speed) in some areas. I personally can't imagine fully automated EVs to be a common sight in just three years. Ten years, sure, but not three. But we'll see in three years time if the estimates was correct.
44:40 He says, "We're gonna have 80% fewer cars on the road." (applause) The audience is applauding as if that means there will be 80% less _driving_. There will be the same amount of driving, if not more--just fewer cars doing the driving. If you were listening, most cars spend 96% of the time parked. Cars don't emit carbon while parked. Having many cars isn't the problem, it's all the driving. There are many things worth applauding in this talk, but fewer cars driving the same number of miles is not worth applauding.
The viewers of this are brainwashed by the hopeful aspiration of seeing the end of fossil fuels. Fossils fuels will be with us for a very long time, whether we foolishly use them to generate electricity and charge electric cars or use them directly to power cars. And it's not just about cars. We use fossil fuels for trucks, airplanes, farm equipment, trains, ships, and many other purposes. I do think it would be nice to drive electric, not so much because of the energy question but because electric motors are more efficient and car maintenance and repair will be less of a headache. Some of the things he says will happen, but in no where near the time frames he's talking about. He's talking 2030, which is just 13 years away. My previous ICE car lasted 20 years and I expect my band new car to still be on the road in 2030. The guy is way off.
Cars emit carbon while in traffic. 80% less cars would basically mean no more traffic, so no more inefficiency related emissions. If you were listening, a vast majority of those cars will be electric. So emissions from transportation is only at generation. Even if we use only natural gas that's a large emissions reduction. Fewer cars driving the same number of miles is worth applauding. @juscurious Come back to us in 5 years and let me know what your scholarly opinion is. It sounds like you don't understand exponential growth very well. Your car outliving a disruption is completely irrelevant. Mobile phones still exist in the current smart phone age, which doesn't mean shit.
Juscurious It appears to me that the audience didn't quite catch on to what the impact of his argument was. Even assuming his dates are correct (and Sheba himself says there are a few years of flop in his estimates), those tipping points only mean the start of the transition. Maybe your next car would be cheaper if all electric after 2021, but my current vehicle will still have a lower marginal cost.
Yeah, somebody in 1985 predicted just 900,000 cell phones for the year 2000. I'm sure somebody (a lot of people actually) in 1969 predicted just 10,000 flights to the Moon and Mars for the year 2000. Both predictions were way off, just not both off in the same direction. So I guess you can't just take any technology that looks promising currently and draw an S curve into the future and expect to get it essentially right every time. The really hard part is predicting which technology will take off and which won't, and Seba's analysis may incur a significant selection bias in the sense that he only looks at technologies like cars and cell phones and computing power that IN HINDSIGHT were the ones that took off. I would also predict that electric and autonomous mobility will succeed and eventually replace gas cars. The picture is less clear with solar I think. There are some other energy sources that are also growing, and I'm sure you can draw S curves for all of them and predict that each of them will take over 100% of the energy market somewhere between 2025 and 2050. Something's gotta give.
In '69/'70 we were going to have to escape the, soon to be coming, Ice Age. My parents weren't very excited because they were going to have beach front property........ after half of California was going to break off and into the ocean. My mom did not care for the beach at all.
This is all about exonential growth. Spatial exploration doesn't become 40% cheaper each year, and it did not neither in the 70's. But batteries do improve efficiency by 40% each year, same for solar and computing.
Most neighbourhood electrical grids of single dwelling houses are not set up for each resident to charge one or more cars. Currently each block can facilitate 3-4 cars worth of 220V charging. The cost of upgrading these grids will make no financial sense, particularly in the colder regions where battery life will be seriously compromised. Then there is the issue of condo ownerns, townhouses and rental appartments and basement suites who will not be able to or won't provide the charging systems. These are serious downfalls to the great idea of world wide electric cars.
This hour-long video is 10x more valuable than any hour-long news show I've seen in 2017...
I agree...the fact that economic realities will drive the change mean we're not relying on the good sense of everybody...even the idiots making negative comments on here will drive EVs one day soon - in a drive for cost savings if nothing else...check out a channel called Fully Charged
Geoff Chown
Kryten rules!
10x more valuable?! That's a disruption! 😂
Indeed! Though probably 10x longer than it needed to be also! Great video though
This is happening, I wasn’t sure a year ago. I’m sure now!
Ok so I am presenting a senior thesis tomorrow on why we should switch from gas vehicles to EV's and OMG this video has helped so much! I was concerned about the questions but not anymore...it is a 20 min paper and I am so ready now!
49:00 he is talking about Enbridge. Well 5 years after the presentation highest prices..
An excellent walk through into the future... an eye-opener!
I have no words to say about this. It's just phenomenal.
Tony Seba - First time heard your work. You are brilliant Sir! Everything you said was based on true facts and good analysis. Thanks!
There are a few holes, though. His estimate of a 10X improvement in solar power and batteries is unrealistic in the case of batteries, and impossible in the case of solar. The best solar panels are around 26% efficient, and the Shockley-Queisser limit suggests that it will be difficult to get past 34%.
Even if 100% efficiency were achieved, that would represent less than a 4X improvement, and 10X is mathematically impossible.
This doesn't mean that 100% EV is impossible, just that nuclear and wind will have to play a larger role, and the transition will take longer and be more costly than Mr. Seba suggests.
@@JimPrice As this is a comment from 2 years ago. How much does it change since then? Is Mr.Seba estimations still likely to be as he said?
@@JimPrice the 10X improvement was about the cost per kWh not 10X in efficiency.
@@magnuslarsson337 That metric usually doesn’t usually include the cost of backstopping solar with batteries or fossil fuel plants during the night. Neither does it include grid enhancements to allow long-range transmission (which will be required if renewables are to provide a large percentage of electrical power).
@@JimPrice Please try to understand instead of trying to misinterpret.
If Tony says price of solar will improve by 10X, that means that the price of solar will improve by 10X, nothing else.
You are the one trying to add that he would have included the cost of batteries in that cost as well, you, no one else.
Thank you Tony! This is the BEST TALK and I have been sharing it around the oil patch in Calgary Alberta Canada with zeel! Tony talks about the things I was telling the oil patch 6 years ago, but HE HAS THE DATA to back it up. Yeah! Technologies to watch for that will make this happen are the Vanadium Lithium Phosphate Battery for mobility, and for grid storage the Vanadium Flow Battery, and salt cavern batteries. I also like the amorphous carbon battery. In addition, I think the we have to start considering the land transportation systems and the electrical grid as ONE SYSTEM. Then we can redesign the entire thing to be completely carbon emission free using both a hydrogen highway and an electrical highway with the technology we have today. We have designed a system to do just that.... well.... a 10th draft of the the system.... it still needs some work. :)
Technological evolution, now entering the exponential curve, is rapidly moving societal structure and decision making away from political incompetence and corruption towards civilian participation and problem solving. Now, more than ever, every individual can and should choose, either actively or passively, to participate in this historical energetic shift, for the sake of our children and possible generations to come. Every choice matters, and every decision counts.
Message from the future: this doesn't work out well when you have malevolent demagogues and social media to spread disinformation.
@Philippe Defossez said,
"... away from political incompetence and corruption towards participation and decision making..."
Everything in life is political, and there is only self-interest, not incompetence or corruption. When you learn to stop badmouthing others for their political beliefs (calling them incompetent or corrupt) *only then* can you move towards participation and decision making.
Hating and devisiveness will not get you there.
sorry to be off topic but does someone know a trick to get back into an Instagram account??
I was dumb forgot the password. I appreciate any tips you can offer me!
@Roger Cash Instablaster :)
Bring it on..the sooner the better!
So what happens to peak car usage. I know averaged over a day they don't get used much but right now we try to use a lot of them at the same time of the day.
th-cam.com/video/Ucp0TTmvqOE/w-d-xo.html According to what Tesla said there, if your job requires a precise time of arrival, then you probably want to own a Model 3 so you get first dibs. Once you're at work, you can let it go make you money until you want to go home. You could go into work early and demand peak pricing. Another thing is how aware the Tesla RideShare Network would be of where all the people are waiting and where they need to go, so chaining the next pickup near the last drop off, and routing via every possible road for efficiency is going to reduce the amount of traffic by a lot, and since it's fully automated they can pack cars into a smaller space on the road since networked cars can tailgate and draft without collision. I think in all reasonableness, we'll just adapt to a +/- 20 minute time of arrival and possibly automated car pooling (for a discount), augmented by telecommuting, relaxed employer fascism, etc. Tons of jobs are going to be automated away forever as well. Yang2020 btw.
Just imagine turning up to work 20 minutes "late", yet you don't need 20 more minutes to de-stress from driving yourself into work in rush hour traffic. Plus you spent your commute doing all your facebooking and news reading, so you can skip that when you get to work as well. If you're a manager who can't see the benefits here, then you should probably be fired for a complete lack of situational awareness, and dictator tendencies.
Just share with your coworkers...
Yes! Our collective intelligence can find incredible solutions to some of the challenges that we all face, globally. Tony's work and refined presentation provides a great platform to "inform" the masses about the disruption that is happening right now. We need the masses informed to ensure that the very wealthy corporate interests and political hacks do not derail these important changes in the course of our collective history. Tesla, and in particular Elon Musk are the first half of the visionaries or catalysts driving the change. Now we need the equally brilliant visionaries that help us define what people are for and how we can ensure a sustainable "environment" for all humans and living things. People equal to profits, governance truly of the people, for the people, by the people.
What is very disturbing is that Government Policy Makers are ignoring the data. Even if any have taken the trouble to at least listen to Seba, few are acting on it. Trump has done a complete 180-degree about-turn and is racing backwards as fast as he can. Fortunately, most Americans will continue to be forward-thinkers (even Republicans) and will drive the changes that are already happening.
In the UK we suffer from a similar bunch of incompetent buffoon politicians, who are perhaps just as stupid as Donald Trump. The Chinese, however, have the whole thing sussed... Watch China become the world's #1 economic power by 2022...
If the policy makers would look at the facts...and Seba is likely closer than most, they would create jobs for this industry Many people are pushing for the US to invest in these industries, like Germany, Australia, China. I hope the free market moves quickly on many fronts. The oil-gas industry has so much $ to push back (look at the concessions Jerry Brown just had to make for the carbon offsets). We're at the tipping point 400+ppm now, when 350 was the limit. 90% of it has been absorbed in the ocean (acidification) and likely cant be removed and our corals are on mass die-off now...they are the "lungs" of the ocean and needed for fisheries (food for many).Like · Reply · 53 mins
An interesting note, that even Congress can be disrupted. Climate Change Lobby is building the Climate Solutions Caucus in congress. It now has as many REPUBLICAN members as the notorious Freedom Caucus. Trump and cronies may not get things all their way!!
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This guy is like the Jesus of technological economics!... Seriously, does anyone else feel like hitting the streets and preaching the good word right now?
Nah hit the stock market 🚀🚀
Plus ca change
This is one of my favorite videos on TH-cam. Amazing confluence of transportation, energy, and business model. I think this is going to happen, and corporate social responsibility is going to be a catalyst for much of the growth in renewable energy.
There is no such thing as Corporate Responsibility they don't give a FUCK until they are made too. Kicking and screaming, socialism, communism and litigating claiming victimization. Then They'll Demand their Tax Breaks and Subsidies while eliminating Domestic workers and Claiming it is necessary to be Profitable.
wish the government of Australia had half the intelligence of this guy
Kevin Dinh
Seba's prodictions are already happening in Australia The snowtown battery-wind has killed off peaker power. At $4 a kwh at peak in a heat wave, i dont think so. Brown coal gone. Solar is 7cents now, transmission is 12cents, seba 2016. Electric cars are already travelling our freeway with no hands.
Watch blocks of cars and every now and then u will see an electric car. The tramsition is in Australia now.
Amory Lovins and Tony Seba are my energy heroes
Crackpot is what we're calling MacArthur fellows now?
You're missing his entire point about disruption - it happens faster than most people expect, including industry "experts", hence the horse-car analogy he started with; this is ex post evidence.
Yes, BEVs are only about 1% of vehicle sales in the US today, but have you been paying attention to what's going on in the automotive industry? Tesla received 400,000 pre-orders (with $1000 deposit - and yes I know it's refundable but getting that many people to do anything is remarkable) for a car people haven't even seen yet. GM (Bolt EV), Hyundai (Ioniq), Nissan (updated Leaf), and many other mainstream manufacturers are releasing actual compelling BEVs, with usable range that are affordable. DC fast charging is in it's infant stages and already meeting the needs for most people.
PLUS, you miss the entire point about autonomous vehicles accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles given their need for high efficiency and durability.
I somewhat agree with your comment about trucks, trains, airplanes, etc., but their contribution to CO2 emissions (and therefore fossil fuel consumption) isn't nearly as large as road transportation - www.wri.org/sites/default/files/us-flowchart.jpg
When you say you'll buy one in the future when it's feasible, what do you mean? There are compelling and affordable options already on the market today.
You can invest in taxis, Blockbuster, Kodak, typewriters, and buggy manufacturers if you don't think disruption is coming; I'll be investing in EVs, AVs, solar, batteries, and mobility services.
Um, well, you either don't believe the trends described, or you think there's some kind of hard threshold effect which is going to stop the extrapolation, or you don't understand what exponential growth means. That's ironic, since the very concept of "discount rate" depends upon it.
Jan... very true. Most people cannot distinguish between LINEAR growth and EXPONENTIAL growth. Disruptions occur on exponential scales.
Steven Sherman - agreed, though I also add Jeremy Rifkin and his Third Industrial Revolution plan to the mix. Lovins and Rifkin (and Musk?) are doing the things Seba is talking about. :) I've been 100% EV for about 6 years so far and it's the least expensive driving I've done in the 40 years I've been driving. No plug? No deal.
dream on 2035 it is definitly over for fossil fuel transportation
These technologies should be huge for emerging countries such in Africa and Asia, allowing easy access to a unlimited amount of renewable energy in a accessible manner.
Yaaaaas!
I'm so happy that they won't go through the wasteful oil and gas stage and skip it altogether.
Big challenges for utilities to accommodate non-peak generating and distributed storage around the existing, old grid. Major upgrades on the way.
Lithium prices crashed this year. Hard to guess exactly where the investment and profits will flow with all this change. Switch away from oil will be hopeful for everyone living on the coast. Less carbon and less flooding over time. Looks like now is the right time to get out of oil energy stocks!
I drove a friend's Tesla last year. Nobody will want a gas car once the infrastructure is in place to support electrics. No maintenance. Super quiet. Incredible acceleration. Way fun.
The model 3 Tesla with dual drive (AWD) actually gets better mileage than the two wheel drive version. Seems impossible, but because one motor is tuned for high efficiency at lower speeds and the other is tuned for high efficiency at higher speeds, it is. Amazing engineering. We live in a time of wonderful innovation. So cool.
I wonder if President Pinocchio or anyone in his cabinet and administration are watching videos like this while talking about bringing back coal jobs and chanting "drill baby drill?" The tax cuts goosed the economy, but the Trump tariffs are throwing stones and sand into the gears of global trade. Crazy policy.
China is moving forward at a fast pace because many of their leaders are scientists, economists and engineers. We could learn something and start electing more politicians with STEM backgrounds.
Luckily 80% of EV charging will happen overnight during non-peak periods. If every car was instantaneously converted to an EV tomorrow that would only add approximately 15 % total KWh demand on a daily basis much of which would be nicely distributed in the overnight period. We got to get out of the old mode of thinking that people are going to go to the corner charge station to charge up. The majority of charging will occur while you are sleeping
It's not rocket science. Even Non-scientist Indian Leaders know this and are actively pushing for 100% EV by 2030(optimistic) and coming up with new bigger Solar installations for power generation.
Now in Feb. 2024 the first car in Europe is available for 23.000€ (25k$) with 320 km (200 mile) range, which is a delay of about 3 years to Tony Sebas curve at 1:03:00. Not a precision landing but overall a very acceptable forecast I would say.
I am listening to this video today 26 Dec 2021. Oil price is not 25 dollar per barrel. It is around 69 dollar per barrel
Today 10 May 2022: Around 100 :)
@@kampfzerG
It's called "making hay while the sun shines"
Meanwhile, *Government policy* is shifting away from fossil fuel, vehicle manufacturers are panicking, *new* grid generation is overwhelmingly green technology, (AND it's cheaper to build, with cheaper energy)
Virtual Power Plants are emerging, using individually owned solar and batteries, etc, etc, etc.
.
The higher the oil price now, the larger the crash.
This is probably one of the best and most important videos anywhere on youtube. I have watched it multiple times and agree with the vast majority of the message.
Well it's February 2019 and we're running behind, but still trending as predicted.
What are you reading that gives you that impression? I'd like to peruse that. I never know quite where to go since Seba does not seem to have an up-to-date site. Are we going down the predicted road?
Great information, thank you Tony Seba, looking forward to our Technology Disruption!
Slave. And you praise your master.
This is an amazing presentation. Giving you lots to think about.
Couldn't agree more... the concept of technology convergence & business model innovation is the key for success of IPhone & Android
Brilliant it really broadens the mind. What price Hinckley Point ?
Stuart Boott
Too high!
If we use autonomous, on-demand cars, it sounds like we'll all be able to get by with fewer vehicles on the road. But we all need rides at the same time, twice a day, during rush hour. Besides different start times for different businesses or ride-sharing, do you envision a way around this problem? Thank you.
It will probably be cheaper when you share a ride with somebody.
Unless people's usage habits change, you end up with the same number of vehicles in operation at any given time. Only the number of parked vehicles, declines.
And of course you are going to want to do that. No, but you think everyone else will.
So, I want one seat with a lot of room for all the stuff I bring with me on trips and stuff.
These company will make it more expensive to get a car during rush hour than other times of the day and thus lots of people will change their habits.
Love this. Everything goes BOOM!
This was an amazing presentation! I can only say that I'm very glad to no longer be working in the oil and gas industry.
I work in the same industry and we are very busy, but I'm retiring in 10 years, and it's looking like that's a good thing.
@@williamrowe5313
Said "... I'm retiring (from oil & gas Industry) in ten years.)
Good luck; I hope you make it. Things are changing very rapidly.
The US government has plans to have laid-off oil workers go to west Texas and plug thousands of oil wells to stop the escape of methane. That should take years to do.
@@acmefixer1 I work in the Construction side of Oil and Gas, While i agree without a doubt the production of Gasoline/Diesel/Fuel additives etc. will go away over time, but 60% use of the crude and natural gas we use goes towards house hold items... produced by Polyethylene units and Chemical plants. until you decide to stop taking medicine, coloring your hair, wearing deodorant, and needing the plastics to build these cars... the "oil and gas" industry wont necessarily go away. and with the growing need for these and the constant upgrading required for environmental reasons... the construction will continue. but yes, I do agree the production of combustion uses will go away.
Tony Seba, the great 👆👆👆👍👍👍👏👏👏
He is too arrogant. He doesn't factor in the people issue. We don't want it!
@@jackmedfeld3424 What people issue? If you're talking about inequality like poor are getting poor and rich are getting richer, there is already a developing technology which "supposedly" is supposed to fix that and that is called "blockchain" my friend. And like Tony Seba said, once these technologies converge, "boom"! Let's move on to solve the next humanity's problem.
Thanks Tony. As
an investor I know now that oil has done and SILVER ( for the panels) is the future.
I would not bet on that. A lot of new Solar coming.
I'm looking forward to a transportation future that is far less reliant on automobiles and even less reliant on automobile ownership. As a result, I'm predisposed to being convinced by this argument. That said, I'm TOTALLY convinced by this argument.
Since this is a 4 years old comment. Do you still agree with Mr. Seba? Is everything still going in the direction of his prediction for you? Just asking because I am just into this right now.
I also have a thought that it would be better to use those automatic self-driving technology for something like “rail-less cabin”. Where company owns it, but every membership(monthly subscription or tickets/chips) could use it. Could think about it as Taxi without any driver. You got everything like Tesla, but everyone and I really mean “everyone” who’s working/living in the city could afford to transport around. You use the car just to shopping, or could park it outside of the city.
I have always been on the other side of this “evolution” ideas. This video help me to understand it better. But I still think that when they say “everyone could afford”, they are talking about some office worker in a quite sustainable company.
I mean, It’s true that no one travel by horse anymore even in the country area. But it might have took them somewhere from 10-30 years to change. In my country for instance, they still use the car from 20 years ago in the country side. And those car are probably doesn’t exist in Europe or America anymore even 20 years ago.
Every country have different rate of growing. Some Southeast Asia country are 10 years behind, and another extra 10 years behind for the countryside.
While this is a global change, but the statistics of changes that they use are still related to their country most of the time.
Tony Seba, a wise man looking into the future. Mr. Toyoda of Toyota NEEDS to watch this As soon as possible to understand that EVs ARE the future, whether he likes it or not!
Seba is a con man....Toyota is the wise man. Ev's are on a dead end road and ALL of them will be off the roads within 5 years..
@@davewhite113 lol
Gr8 talk. PS: how many times did he say "essentially"??
Essentially.. 71 times.
Because it makes total economic sense.
I want to know if home water generation from the air will make sense if solar is so cheap, especially in arid environments.
+Thaylor Harmor
I don't think it will be, because in arid regions there is very little water in the air. You can buy a dehumidifier right now (it's thermodynamically pretty much as good as it gets) and see how much water you get per kWh... it's very little for tremendous amounts of energy.
TH-camr Thunderf00t shows you the rough calculations in his debunking videos of "water seer" or "fontus self-filling water bottle" ...
Going off economics, it will always remain cheaper to transport the water than to scrape it out of the air (especially with autonomous, electric vehicles).
Pretty exciting stuff, bring it on!
Id also like Tony to hear Tony talk about this might benefit the poorer people of the world. Let's also uplift them with this stuff, and just not the wealthiest countries. Think of an expectant mother who can take a self-driving car to the hospital for herself or children, or a family who don't have to clear and burn the local forest for heating and stoves. Food production. etc etc etc
I'd also like to add we may need to do contingency planning also and create some disaster backups for a world that is 95-100% solar.
A world on a few days reserve energy is quite vulnerable. Perhaps we need to ensure we stockpile accessible natural gas (or better solar generated H2) reserves and generation for calamatous events. Any large volcanic eruptions or moderate asteroid impacts (they can happen) etc, asides from the initial disaster issues, will cause major problems in the world. Even if its a 20% generation deficit if we don't have other stores of energy to tap into. Think heating, food, transport, lighting, etc.
Exciting days ahead.
In some Arabic countries women are not allowed to drive, in maybe 30 years maybe nobody with very few exceptions is even allowed to drive anymore.
this is hard to find beats back to back stepping closer to the heart of the sunshine on a winters day and the sound of Prince drifting up from below
Thank you Tony for sharing such a valuable information.
What if a shipping container could drive to the buyer of its load?
I appreciate this video and its insights. One quick comment is that cars have scrap value and you won't have to pay people to take a used car off of your hands. Simply take it to the scrap yard and sell it for $500 or more. Thank you Tony Seba for your research!
why would a scrap yard want ICE car parts when no one will be fixing their ICE vehicles? - you will have to pay to get rid of it
In my city, the transit commission is already looking at autonomous buses and bus drivers are panicking about losing their jobs.
UBI will have to happen at some point.
No need to panic but yes, most drivers will be redundant in 5 years or less.
It seems that we will work into a hybrid of ownership and "shared" utilization of vehicles. We have a love for the experiences that ownership of vehicles brings, and there are many, but there is no reason why both cannot exist together in a new way. The idea of solar power and solar cars dominating the way we power our transportation in a very short time is very exciting. Think how much quieter our world will be!
You do not need to own a vehicle, when you have access to one at a moments notice for 1/10th the cost.
are the slides of this talk available somewhere?
Where can I find the slides shown in the video?
Essentially....fantastic!
26:00 lol all new vehicles (cars, tractors, buses, trucks) electric by 2025... We are mid-2021, they'd better hurry.
"But that's not what's gonna happen"... because all cars will be self-driving says Tony Seba.
Then they'd definitively better hurry.
This is an absolute delight. I had the pleasure of reading something similar, and it was an absolute delight. "The Hidden Empire: Inside the Private Worlds of Elite CEOs" by Adam Skylight
I think the only thing holding back a full EV transition from all the manufacturers now is that they dont have access to enough batteries to deliver them. Tesla understood this a long time ago and hence started their Gigafactory with more to come online in the years ahead, perhaps even to supply the other car manufacturers. There might very well be a Kodak among the biggest car brands today, the ones that have lagged behind for too long to even get contracts on battery manufacturing.
Gigafactories all over the world are being built or planned. Tesla's Maxwell manufacturing technology should also help.
Does anyone have the transcript of the speech?
It makes all kinds of economic and practical sense for shared A-EVs to be an upcoming disruption, but my prediction is that it still won't happen as quickly as he suggests, at least in a lot of North America... for much the same reason that the already existing technology of car pooling (or even public transportation in general) is underutilized in many cities. People in North America like the convenience and independence of their own vehicle. If they want to go out for whatever reason, they want to do it *now* - not wait for a shared A-EV to come to them. I'm not saying it's the right attitude, but I'd be very surprised if people quickly develop the patience necessary to share that kind of infrastructure, even if it makes economic sense to do so. I can absolutely see shared A-EVs replacing taxi and ride sharing services, and there of course will be some who own their own car who will switch their mindset. But I predict the S curve in this case would level out at no higher than 50% adoption for decades. On the other hand, I do expect (and hope) that A-EVs in general are close at hand.
I wonder how many people will loose their jobs in the US from automation. And needs re-education. How many cars are even really self-owned in the US ? Lots of them are financed, right ? How many people in the US have very little money in their bank account.
Having the advantage of looking back to these prediction for the future of 2022 it is clear that simply pointing to highly successfully disruptions of the past doesn't prove that the direction we are going in now will follow suit. None of the failed industries and new ideas that never got off the ground were mentioned that would have reminded us all that most ideas, even some very good ones, never got the chance to see the light of day. Unfortunately, politicians will be the ones that chose what technology gets developed because they control the capitol. Engineers will not be involved nearly as much as they should be because they will point out problems and issues that will prove inconvenient to the corrupt ambitions of politicians and the chosen few that will become incredibly wealthy. Case in point is how ethanol is mandated to be used in 10% of our gasoline. This is a negative energy source that requires more energy to produce than it will ever deliver. It does however make certain states and a few people very wealthy at the expense of everyone else.
I am watching in 2024. Except for the self driving I think this held up very well. The self driving was probably the only technology that needed technical breakthroughs, so I am not surprised that prediction has not worked out - yet.
I think it will work eventually, it is just a question of when exactly.
7.6kW Solar with hot water storage installed 2021. Grid dependence reduced 75%, just like that. 6yr payback time.
@26:00 Let us see.
It's happening.
Delayed slightly by Covid, but it's happening
Also factor in inflation
What should I invest in to take advantage of this trend?
Tesla.
Sedg and enph. You'll thank me in a decade.
Btw, in Norway 24% of all new cars were EVs for August 2017. 19% was PHEVs. In some counties like the westernmost one an amazing 42% of all new cars were EVs (where almost 10% of all cars on the roads are EVs). Change is coming fast, classic S-curve adoption as Tony Seba mentions in his talk (and has been for a while now).
Those sort of EV sales figures are what happens when you tax the crap out of gasoline and diesel to the point where people don't have the flexibility of personal vehicle ownership... until you finally make available something which doesn't run on either. So now personal vehicle ownership is skyrocketing in Norway, and new problems are resulting from it.
@@randallsemrau7845 Simply swap taxes on income for taxes on gasoline and diesel. Problem solved.
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 how does the system you describe, adjust for the many situations where EV implementation is impossible.? Where individuals/business owners are forced to continue using the transportation solution whichever meets their needs in every way except fuel type and fuel cost? Do we allow that to just cripple them, putting them and their employees out of work? Fully implementation of Ev' s is probably a 25 year project, and millions could fall between the cracks in such a scenario.
In the UK, natural gas is about 3.9p/KWhr. My gas boiler consumes, when running, 35KW. If it was running on electricity, it would need a supply of over 150 amps at 230v, in addition to my other electrical supply requirements. If everybody made similar conversions to electric heating, the national grid and domestic supply cabling would need to be doubled or trebled in size. Now add in the requirements for a coupler of car charging points and the requirement rises again.This is a massive infrastructure requirement that will be difficult to provide economically. For electric cars, you also need to add a new tax to compensate for the lost tax on petrol sales (or other taxes will need to rise to compensate).
You either have a very large house or a very leaky one - or both. You should spend some time and money more energy efficient - i.e. tighten up the air barrier. That would likely cut your energy need by 1/2 to 2/3. The other point Tony was making was that your power generation is on your roof or in your front or back garden - not being generated hundreds or thousands of miles away so your suppky cables are maybe 10M long.
17 PV panels just 150W today in sunny UK !
Hi Alan, I think the conversion will be to hybrid boilers, not straight electric. Have you seen hybrid heat pump water heaters? We've been installing them here is the US. Pretty impressive.
you can also have an unvented hot water cylinder with twin immersion heaters and solar thermal , you get a 25yr guaranteed 70 litre a minute hot water system.
Generally agree with Tony except for the future of cars including EV cars. Tony makes an assumption that cars/vehicles only meet transportation needs. This is flawed because cars and vehicles meet other needs including identity needs, recreation needs and self actualisation needs. A look at Singapore or Tokyo, which are arguably among the world's most transportationally connected cities, the car ownership is not reduced because it fulfills more than transportation needs that has economic value added of its own reckoning. Otherwise Tony's analysis on the natural decay of fossil fuels is s spot on. Only matter would be the aviation industry... What's the fossil fuel substitute there?
Yeah as far as the aviation thing goes, it took 16 months to get around the globe the last time the solar powered Impulse 2 flew. At that rate, transporting a jumbo jet full of people to Hawaii from Vancouver would take 76 years.
Ngata, what Tony is also not including in his assumptions is the increase in need for electrical power and how it will be supplied. The energy density of gasoline/diesel is much greater than electrical energy. To your point, there will be privately owned AVs but there is not a charging infrastructure that will appear in 5-10 years. How many people are going to wait 1-2 hours to recharge a vehicle? Tony is a typical theortician who misses a lot of practical details that we know can turn into the devil. I don't know how old you are but during the 70's people like Tony were projecting we would be running out of oil by 1980-1990. How did that turn out.
Academic thinkers (which he is) never take into account the human factor. Of course deep down he wishes that not so many humans exist. I have read academic papers advocating that.
Actually Gary, the reason why fossil oil and the petroleum industry continued for as long as it has is more political and financial. The Petroleum industry is worth $trillions and dominated by US and European petroleum companies that distribute, trade and value add to the commodity. They were not willing to let this nasty polluting fuel source die when there was such a truckload of money to be made. and look where it has landed the world? among others the Petrodollar-fueled Islamic terrorism and Islamist political activism in the the West intent to dismantling Western Civilisation.
But Jack, really, I've met and engaged with Tony Seba personally, and he is not an enviro-Nazi as many Greens are. He is a scientist and futurist sincerely trying to improve the world as we know it.
Are there enough natural resources to make and renew all these solar panels and batteries?
nope #drccobaltkids
I didn't think so.
Intersting talk, but flawed, as just about all predictions on the future, as Tony Seba pointed-out.
First of all the solid state batteries in the works does not use cobalt. Secondly everyone always calls out resources necessary for the EV revolution but act like the fossil fuel/ICE construct is made from fairy dust with no resource intensity.
Fascinating presentation. Among the many positives, perhaps the drop in oil use will finally remove the climate threat from the Kochs and their tar sands.
However, there is an energy issue which Seba did not include in his talk. Generally residential power generation from solar, and power storage using batteries, isn’t a big deal (although there are people in every neighborhood who scream NIMBY). There is an issue, however, which Seba did not include in his talk: the space density of power production and storage. An industrial facility like metal smelting can require gigawatts of power; for instance, Bahrain’s Alba Smelter has a generating capacity of 2.3 gigawatts. Given the fact that an acre of solar panels produces ~2.8GWh/year, do the arithmetic and be surprised by how many acres of panels would be required. Similarly, battery energy storage requires a large amount of materials and space. Space used means land used, and sufficient contiguous land may not be available. That means any high-power industrial facility that wants to use energy from solar or wind, is going to have to have transmission lines from somewhere else. It also means that an energy storage technology which requires less space and materials than batteries (e.g. rail gravity storage, compressed air) might be required.
It is comforting to hear that this Disruption will make transportation cheaper, since none of us are going to have jobs!
Obviously you did not get it.....solar will not just be produced on the ground and rooftops but also from every wall of buildings and he did not even mention windturbines, geothermal and tidal
at all......
Jean Paul Azzurro Obviously you did not do the arithmetic. NREL says 2.8 acres of fixed-tilt panels are required to generate 1 GWh energy over the course of a year. Suppose you are running a smelter that requires 2 GW of power continuously. That works out to 17.5 TWh of energy over a year (8760 hours). What do you get if you divide 17.5*10^12 by 1*10^9 ? That is the number of 2.8 acre parcels you need - land, walls, whatever.
Ed Arnold - you're stuck on only one facet of renewable generation, appear to be ignoring the load-shifting ability of storage, and might be forgetting that the available energy resources are many orders of magnitude greater than we need. If you care to, learn about Jeremy Rifkin's Third Industrial Revolution and how it's being implemented in Germany, the entire EU, and China. Storing excess wind/solar/tidal generation in the natural gas grid as hydrogen means the grid formerly used for natural gas can store enough energy to provide the entire country's electricity, transportation, building heat and hot water, and industrial heat for a full six months. A single smelter in that environment is mouse nuts. Also look at the Rocky Mountain Institute's Reinventing Fire process, which is also being implemented in the US and in other parts of the world. Same result.
How do you know hydrogen can be stored in the natural gas grid? Containing H2 is more difficult than containing CH4. It is not clear what you mean by "available energy resources are many orders of magnitude greater than we need". There is plenty of coal and natural gas energy, but not that much low-carbon energy, unless you want to count nuclear.
Yes... there is the apparent conundrum of power needs in certain industrial processes (aluminium smelting and steel blast furnaces).
But in steel, for example, arc furnaces are already a preferred steel-making technology than coke-fired systems. They are smaller, easier and faster to commission (and operate) and the chemistry for carbonising steel (previously a reaction of the coke with the metal) is rapidly advancing.
Cars will increasingly use lighter alloys of aluminium - which will give way to carbon-fibre. Car panels will be 3D printed - not moulded in a huge press.
Globally, we are already seeing progressive decline in the steel industry. In the not-too-distant future, most steel needs will be met through recycling (old cars and their redundant ICE engines, transmissions and drive-trains).
Another vast source of recyclable steel will be in the trans-continental and refining plant piping of the oil and gas industries. In fact, the day Trump cuts the ribbon to open his planned Keystone pipeline, he'll have to fight his way through the mass of scrap-metal merchants who've turned out to dismantle it and cart it away...
44:29 "80% fewer cars". I doubt it. Most cars are on the road at two particular times of every weekday - 8am and 5pm. Even with autonomous cars as a service, you still need to meet that needed capacity. If you could magic cars out of thin air, maybe that 80% figure would be right, but unless something else happens (staggered work start times, etc.) you're going to need at least 40% of the cars that are on the road now.
Prometheus
Understate what he is saying. This is similar:
Fully Charged doing a similar prediction with EVs.
th-cam.com/video/9k7k3Mzknm8/w-d-xo.html
37:30 Robotaxi idea is highlighted here in 2017.
Musk only mentions it first time to the public in Teslas 2019 autonomy day presentation.
So its not such a half baked idea - others thought of it years ago and Tesla will try to implement it first. I suspect they have been working towards this concept for some years - otherwise the $Bs R&D investments in autonomy hardware/software would not pay back if it was just for individuals to use 4% of the year.
These guys think way ahead of the rest of us - startling
Nearly two years old, so according to Seba, the revolution is only three years away. I really do hope he's right, but I'm not entirely sure that we'll make it in time.
But I have no doubt that it is the future he's describing, though we have to wait a few more years.
The thing with exponential curves is that it’s quite hard to know exactly when they will take off, but when they do it will move fast.
@@yourelawyered it would still be nice with an updated graph to see how we're progressing.
is there a way to get the slides?
The slides are under copyright. I suggest you contact his organization at tonyseba.com
That content will also be in his book "Clean Disruption".
Yes... buy his book. I have a copy and it's a compelling read.
Thank you man !
it's gone ='(
still available via Sribd, just google "cid_1987411.pdf"
Fantastic talk and very impressive! At least all politicians should be forced to watch it twice. (at first it would be a bit much information to process)
On the cost side, what are the chances for success for nuclear FUSION power plants (R&D for decades)? Any chance at all after that solar+storage disruption?
1_2_Die None. He believes nuclear and fossil fuels will be obsolete by 2030.
I love everything Budget Antonio Banderas here is telling me
If you live in a city you dont need a car but for country people or business people its a necessity
How about apartments to use solar pv
It's on 57:51 which is Utility Scale Solar. It's a Solar farm that will feed energy to the high density population city. Basically, people in apartment won't have to put up solar panel by themselves, they just get a cheaper electric bill when your Electric company move to Solar.
Mr Seba got the cellphone projection wrong. The reason the forecast he noted was low; was bandwidth of cell phones was then very limited; you could only have a voice conversation or very slow modem. The reason it got to 109 million was AT&T. AT&T partnered with Apple; to vastly improve the bandwidth of "cellular" communications to provide for a wireless cellular network capable of using the internet. Apple made a small touch screen pocket computer called an i"phone" that was able to bring users mobile internet. Without the collaboration by the AT&T, he says didn't participate in the digital expansion; there wouldn't have been one.
Excellent!!!
We believe it!
This guys predicted the correct price of batteries and EV of 2018 in his 2010 conference, this is why I trust him.
Conference in 2017 of Tony Seba, prophet of techno-solutionism, "expert in technological disruptions for 40 years" (??), whose theory is that the car and fossil fuel industry (oil, gas, coal) is on the verge of collapse, and that we are about to tip over into a paradise of 100% autonomous vehicles, 100% electric energy, 100% solar. And this for purely economic reasons: no need for subsidies, the new technologies are so irresistible that it will very soon make no economic sense to preserve the old ones.
Those who do not believe in this theory are labelled as "mainstream propaganda". But the good thing is that Tony Seba puts his guts on the table with precise predictions in the very short term, so we can frequently check where we are in relation to his prophecy, the logic of which is obvious to anyone with a brain.
Minute 26: Tony Seba claims that by 2025 (at worst 2027, he's not that far off) 100% of new land vehicles (cars but also trucks, tractors, buses) sold in the world will be electric. Where do we stand? According to the International Energy Agency (probably one of those mainstream propaganda organs) the number of electric CARS sold in the world did increase between 2017 and 2018, but then stagnated around 2.2 million per year over 2018-2020.
2018 market share of electric cars: 2.3
2019 : 2,5%
2020 : 3,2%
That's not so bad, however we'll have to hurry up to reach 100% within 4 years (and we're not even talking about trucks and tractors).
www.iea.org/.../global-electric-car-sales-by-key...
It gets even better. Minute 43, Tony Seba announces that from 2021 on, millions of autonomous vehicles will hit the roads all over the world. By 2025, it will make absolutely NO SENSE to buy a car, we will all be driving in autonomous electric car-sharing ("Transport as a Service", TaaS), the car industry will collapse because it will sell 4 times less cars, and by 2030 we will be driving 100% in TaaS (don't worry in peripheral France, we will come and get you too, no one will be left on the side of the road, the geniuses of the metropolises won't forget you). Admittedly, 2017 was a bit of a hype year around the autonomous vehicle, everyone since then has been able to step back and re-evaluate its prospects.
But there's more. Minute 51, Tony Seba makes us review our high school classes on geometric sequences. Installed solar power capacity will double every two years, as will solar's share of the energy mix. In 2017, Tony Seba claimed that the share of solar was 1.5% (this was true for the share in the electricity mix, but false for the energy mix, where the share of solar in primary energy was 0.5%... this confusion is often maintained in these circles).
Then attention Tony enters in trance, and invites us to count with him:
2019: we will be at 3%.
2021 : 6%
2023 : 12%
2025 : 24%. At this point, it would already mean that solar energy would produce, for example, ALL the world's electricity. Everyone will appreciate to what extent it seems plausible that within 4 years, the world will close its 4200 GW of controllable electricity production capacity based on coal and gas (a figure that has been trending upwards for 170 years, even if there could be at least a slight dip in coal over 2019-2020... to be confirmed, as China is massively reopening coal-fired power plants to rapidly revive its economy).
2027 : 48%
2029: 96% (but he recognizes that he may be wrong by 2-3 years and that we may have to wait until the early 30's to be at 100% solar).
What has been the reality since this conference by Tony Seba?
2019: 1% of the global energy mix, or one third of Tony Seba's prediction, knowing that one can consider with intellectual honesty, without being labeled mainstream propaganda, that the first few % are easier to grab than the last 50%.
What happened? According to IRENA (the International Renewable Energy Agency, another anti-solar mainstream propaganda body in the pay of the oil lobby), here is the evolution of the world's cumulative solar energy capacities:
2016: 291 GW
2017: 384 GW
2018: 483 GW (not a doubling in 2 years, while we are only at the beginning)
2019: 581 GW (even less a doubling in 2 years)
2020: 707 GW (even less than a doubling in 2 years, but we have still multiplied by 2.4 in 4 years, which is already not bad)
www.irena.org/.../Capacity.../Statistics-Time-Series
To be continued...
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
OK
Let's continue!
SEPTEMBER 2022
.
Tesla is now building 42 Megapaxks per week.
Uprated capacity of 3.9MWh per pack
For context, comparing the 80MWh pack referenced by Tony (88 days)
They now exceed the equivalent of TWO in 7 DAYS.
That's 8.5 GWh per year and they're building a factory to scale to *40GWh*
500 of the referenced installation.
.
Game over.
A Very Captivating forecast. Writing on the wall is so crisply chiseled, but not everyone can either see it or feel it...... Sad....
I'm not too sure about the individual ownership. Sure it makes sense, especially in big cities, but are people really willing to give up the ownership? Where do they leave their valuables? What's about camping trips? These days many people take public transportation for work already and yet they still own a car because it's handy.
Wow. you were lucky enough to get a PRAP? For what week? I have known people who have waited years to get a PRAP. WHO DO YOU KNOW? Personal Rural Access Permits are mostly handed out to people with connections.
While they may be the last to succumb, I suspect companies will provide autonomous RV's for long term rentals. Hopefully it will be affordable.
Do people really want to pay $25,000 for a place to leave their sunglasses?
Ownership is only an issue if you think of these replacements in the same way you think of your existing car with "ownership" issues. These are "spaces". They can evolve in different ways from existing cars. There can be "meeting room" cars, "overnight sleeper" cars, automated delivery vehicle cars, coffee shop cars, all tailored to specific use cases. A standard slot for your hand luggage could address your valuables. Specialised long distance vehicles with 4 wheel drive, beds, cookers and toilet facilities that you book for 10 days use whenever you need them address your camping trips. Your vehicle subscription App will also let you step up or step out to other special use vehicles. Got a graduation? Get a limo for the trip. Moving flat? Get a van instead. Got 5 kids going to separate schools? Get 5 cars to deliver them simultaneously.
And of course the very wealthy will still own their own vehicles because money is no object. But if all your transport needs ever can get addresses by your own personal self driving taxi App for $2-3,000 per year then most people will find that more affordable than the current situation of owning a $25,000 car, buying petrol & insurance, paying for parking, buying train season tickets for work and bus season tickets for the kids to go to school and an occasional taxi when when you've had some drinks or you and the wife want to go to different places ........
If you own your car for status then you will get the Rolls Royce subscription service instead of the General Motors or Kia subscription service.
When a self drive car is more convenient, less fuss and crucially costs 80% less than owning a car, then I think most people will take the money and leave the ownership issue behind.
Camping trips!? What about my surveying equipment I use almost daily? Or contractors tools and ladders? If all you carry around is a cellphone, maybe. But there is much more inertia for many of the things that daily living currently uses, and existing infrastructure imposes, than his models account for. That said, I'm persuaded about EV v ICE and Grid migration to Solar/Battery/Super Caps energy adoption.
@@completelybusted You nailed it mate! You took the words right out of my mouth.
Can someone explain the fact that the German consumer pays 3x per KWh what we do her in the USA. UK is 2x. True, I personally observed huge wind farms in DE while living there last year but I realized why they don’t take 10min showers like we do here in USA!!
Because it's always expensive to be an early adopter of a new technology.
Nice lecture with a nice THEORY but with an important (if not the most important) parabel left out: TAXES. Also no word on the availabillity or amount of raw materials needed for these new technologies, which ofcourse will have influence on prices.
AndriesMulti
It may have been a" theory" 7 years ago when he started these lectures, but he certainly appears to be in front of the curve in every prediction he made at that time.
You mention cost of materials however you should offset the cost of materials that aren't used such as the large amounts of steel and aluminium which aren't required. Assuming the bodywork of a nice car and NPV are roughly equivalent the amount of iron, Steel, aluminium and other metal used in the engine, transmission, drivetrain cooling system and exhaust system of an ICE car should be taken into account, together with the energy required to Forge and machine these components.
Yes, taxes is where things will get interesting.
@41:44 And remember. This $1000/year Robo taxi service is not going to be some smelly, dirty public bus type of transport.
It will be 100% customized, fast, safe, reliable, inexpensive, 24/7 walk away type of service.
@56:10 And look at what they had to go through to get to that God particle... With solar you're slapping some ever cheaper, panels/shingles on your roof...
This talk is aging like fine wine.
It's even better in September 2022! 👍
I just wondering why Solar City bankrupted? Currently to install 10 Kwt solar panels cost $36,000 that can be paid off in 20 years if your average electric bill $150/month . Not make sense at all.
Less than $5k in Australia for that system (China/German system) and our electric price is very high 30c
You missed the point of the talk, which is that prices are falling.
Isn't the "boom!" copyright by Steve Jobs?!
39:30-39:48. I disagree with the individual ownership analysis. Also, it seems the presentation is skewed towards only the vehicles for personal and private use without taking into consideration that of ground freight transportation, earth-moving vehicles used in construction, farming vehicles and equipments, air freight, private business jets, the shipping industry. So to think because of the awesome and bold progress made in the electric vehicle industry with batteries, oil or hydrocarbons ( natural gas) are done with or going to be obsolete (too bad we are already in 2020, so that prognostication failed) is just short- sighted. Not talking of manufacturing of cement, production of the derivatives from crude oil in the form of biomedical plastics, bitumen for road construction, fertilizer production for food, steel production, etc? Great presentation generally on the disruptiveness of electric vehicles up until it entered into the energy generation arena. Solar is great but it’s limited where intermittency is concerned, especially in the temperate regions of the world during the winter months, so it fails to be the all in all answer to the reliable green energy future we seek. Listening to the presentation shows our failure to often acknowledge the sharp dichotomy that exists in the application of Moore’s law (originally theorized for the cost of transistors) in the world of electronics or computers (upon which the EV industry is built) and the innovation of or prospecting for new energy sources to achieve either net zero or new forms of energy. Also we shouldn’t restrict ourselves to only the disruption that solar offers, since its limited(depending on the part of the globe you find yourself ) the disruptiveness of third generation and forth generation designs of safe nuclear energy coupled with modular designs that come with Molten Salt reactors cannot be underestimated. I believe we’ve demonized enough in our quest to achieve zero emissions in our green energy generation mix. We shouldn’t shoot ourselves in the foot and put all our eggs in one or a few baskets when the intermittency of these sources are staring us in the face. The nuclear energy for the generation of electricity and as fuel for heating our homes and running our industries (when that electricity is cheap enough. And history has proven that the price stability per Kwh of nuclear is reliable) today is not the the nuclear energy of yesteryears. The technology exists today to harness that energy safely and reliable with zero potential for harm to humans or the environment.
Have you realised you were wrong yet?
58:20 this guy is literally comparing prices of certain energy sources with completely different units… I just did the math with the gas price and it is literally about three times cheaper than the solar price if you take the values shown on his sheet.
If anyone know better please correct me but this screams bs in my opinion.
Edit: Note that I compared the 5cts/kwh to the 5$/MMBtu.
My result is 1,7cts/kwh for gas.
Facts Brother Hell YEAH
I agree with you
Totally cool disruption !!!
What happens when people have emergencies or just "urgencies" and need to run to the store, etc.?
They don't do it.
Jack Medfeld I disagree. While I agree in general w Seba and I agree that solar and autonomous vehicles will eventually take over the market, I do not believe TaaS will disrupt transportation in 10-15 years as he predicts. His argument assumes people act with near complete economic rationality, and people don’t. People make uneconomical choices all the time. People will not quickly give up the autonomy of personal vehicle ownership. I think that will take a generation or more.
It will not be a problem. You order your vehicle and it arrives in minutes. Since the cost is so low, there will be excess quantity of vehicles available to every user so the car can probably arrive before you have time to find your purse, put on your hat and coat or go to the bathroom. People will indicate the kind of vehicle needed and the computers will know how many are needed for each use. Imagine people with kids needling car seats. The cars that arrive for them will have car seats already installed. Also, with the self driving car, you can simply order what you need on line and the drug store or grocery store will send it to you in self driving car. You may be able to avoid the urgent trip completely. If you have a medical emergency, it is MUCH better to have the self driving car pick you up. Who wants to drive when you don't feel good? Besides, in a few years, we will all be wearing devices that will tell us if something is wrong with our bodies so we have more time to repair it - or fix it ourselves.
Kristina great answer !
It may take a little longer in areas with lower population density but it will be so fast in the cities, your heads will turn. Why? Because young people love living in cities and are most likely to adapt. My kids who live in Chicago have never owned a car. They use public transportation, uber and zip cars. Imagine how many more people will abandon cars when the cost of uber drops precipitously. It will be like having your own chauffeur. Who would hang on to their cars instead of using a chauffeur? There will always be people who will opt to own a car. Workmen who need to have their tools with them, rich people who are not sensitive to price (for the same reason they own houses all over the place). I am wondering how this might affect public transportation. Imagine self driving cars that you share with others? The price could drop below the cost of public transportation. The biggest barrier to this happening is government since politicians will have difficulty understanding how it works and will worry about the safety of self driving cars.
Vanadium Redux Flow Batteries. If the idea of energy disruption in the form of electricty storage systems intrigues you then check out VRFBs. The main attraction is they have a much longer life span than Lithium Ion batteries.
1.2 million vs 900,000 is only 33% off. Not bad for a long-range projection.
One fine place to read comments!
What about air travel? When is the next major innovation for trans-continental transportation?
#hvo replaces Jet A1 and diesel fuels made from waste #neste works down to -40 deg C no additives, higher mpg, lower NOx, Co, CO2, CHs etc
Instant teletransportation before 2030
In general, I agree with what he is saying ... that disruptions follow an S-curve and that technologies can compress time and timing of events. This confluence of technologies is going to create a tipping point in some regard. Will it be re-shaped like Tony is suggesting ... I think that is impossible to predict, but I do believe that change is upon us.
What I don't think Tony is considering (I didn't hear it in his presentation) are the counter-forces of other trends in politics, actions by oil producers, car makers, and all sorts of established interests. For instance, we have already seen a disruption in the oil patch with the shale revolution, and extraction cost are continuing to come down and more efficient. I think that trend will also continue.
Lastly, Tony doesn't discuss any of the unintended consequences of some of these disruptions, which will reset the trajectory of some of these trends he is extrapolating. For instance, the trend he suggest of going to EV, what is the backlash and environmental consequences of huge battery disposal, the accelerated mining of Li-ion?
I believe Mr Seba is right ultimately, I just question his timeline and the effect of the eventual counter forces due to unintended consequences which that will also certainly occur.
Some oil companies are recognizing that they are energy companies and are transitioning to PV and other forms, and they certainly have the capital to invest heavily. There are also many people doing R&D on other better batteries that don't use lithium.
Of course there will be actions by special interests. There always are. The fight to keep lead in gasoline was big, as was the fight to hamper warnings about cigarette smoking. These situations take counter efforts by a concerned citizenry who are not heavily influenced by the special interests. That is somewhat lacking these days, judging from the high percentage of client deniers we still have.
Wish you focused less on the speaker and more on the slides. The way this is currently done, I can't see the slides, which look like they've got good content too! Maybe next time more slides, less following speaker
Amazing!!!!!!!!
So....Here it is may 2018 and Saudi Arabia is signing a financial deal worth 200 billion with Softbank to build a 200 GigaWatt Solar installation. Its going to cover 5000 sq miles of desert. The equivalent of 200 mid sized nuclear reactors. They are building their own infrastructure to build the panels. It would not surprise me if they are doing the same for storage. Nvidia? Now has a Petaflop system the size of a foot stool. Im starting to wonder if maybe even Tony has under estimated....
its all about electricity and solar. what about wind power and heat demand in winter?
Geothermal uses 80% less energy and it works anywhere not built on solid rock. Solar can also be used for heating with the advance phase change materials now entering the marketplace that store thermal energy very efficiently. We have evacuated tube technology that is capable of boiling water even on a cloudy day at -30C from solar radiation. Wind and solar are BOTH dirt cheap today. Less than 4 cents/kWh everywhere without subsidies. We have 5 contracts this year that came in at less than 2 cents. The disruption is already happening. 56% of all new cars sold in Norway last year were electric. Everywhere EV sales are up 40% while all other cars are in decline.
@@davefroman4700
Even more true in September 2022!
Great talk. Either I missed or he didn't cover the costs to transition to solar/batteries and the reality that most of will always want a car in the garage ready for us on a moments notice if we have the luxury of a space for it. Anyone else struggling with the term God Parity?
God Parity doesn't do it for me, but I can see how it's derived from Grid Parity.
How long do you think it will take for a car to arrive if all cars are automated, electric and shared ?
GOD = generation on demand
I needed to watch this
hard to believe...but I can see it happening...soon. Lets embrace and prepare for a Safer Greener Smarter world all round
It could be interesting with an update to this insanely interesting talk.
what I mean is - now a year has passed....so how does the current situation match the expectations? Are we ahead, are we behind or are we spot on for the 2021-2025 disruption marker?
@@ZanZanDK Tony has given many talks over the years and will probably continue to do so. His value as a consultant depends heavily on his accuracy. So far, he's done very well, based on his predictions from talks in 2013 and 2014.
Michelangelo Buonarroti I agree. And the numbers don't lie.
However this talk is now about two years old, and according to the estimate we should hit the disruption in three years.
What could be interesting is to see if the numbers are still on track, or if we have slowed down (or increased speed) in some areas.
I personally can't imagine fully automated EVs to be a common sight in just three years. Ten years, sure, but not three.
But we'll see in three years time if the estimates was correct.
44:40 He says, "We're gonna have 80% fewer cars on the road." (applause)
The audience is applauding as if that means there will be 80% less _driving_.
There will be the same amount of driving, if not more--just fewer cars doing the driving.
If you were listening, most cars spend 96% of the time parked. Cars don't emit carbon while parked. Having many cars isn't the problem, it's all the driving. There are many things worth applauding in this talk, but fewer cars driving the same number of miles is not worth applauding.
Brainbuster resources involved in manufacturing
The viewers of this are brainwashed by the hopeful aspiration of seeing the end of fossil fuels. Fossils fuels will be with us for a very long time, whether we foolishly use them to generate electricity and charge electric cars or use them directly to power cars. And it's not just about cars. We use fossil fuels for trucks, airplanes, farm equipment, trains, ships, and many other purposes. I do think it would be nice to drive electric, not so much because of the energy question but because electric motors are more efficient and car maintenance and repair will be less of a headache. Some of the things he says will happen, but in no where near the time frames he's talking about. He's talking 2030, which is just 13 years away. My previous ICE car lasted 20 years and I expect my band new car to still be on the road in 2030. The guy is way off.
Cars emit carbon while in traffic. 80% less cars would basically mean no more traffic, so no more inefficiency related emissions. If you were listening, a vast majority of those cars will be electric. So emissions from transportation is only at generation. Even if we use only natural gas that's a large emissions reduction. Fewer cars driving the same number of miles is worth applauding.
@juscurious Come back to us in 5 years and let me know what your scholarly opinion is. It sounds like you don't understand exponential growth very well. Your car outliving a disruption is completely irrelevant. Mobile phones still exist in the current smart phone age, which doesn't mean shit.
The graph at 43:36 shows that miles driven will be higher after TaaS disruption, so you're right about that.
Juscurious It appears to me that the audience didn't quite catch on to what the impact of his argument was. Even assuming his dates are correct (and Sheba himself says there are a few years of flop in his estimates), those tipping points only mean the start of the transition. Maybe your next car would be cheaper if all electric after 2021, but my current vehicle will still have a lower marginal cost.
Yeah, somebody in 1985 predicted just 900,000 cell phones for the year 2000. I'm sure somebody (a lot of people actually) in 1969 predicted just 10,000 flights to the Moon and Mars for the year 2000. Both predictions were way off, just not both off in the same direction.
So I guess you can't just take any technology that looks promising currently and draw an S curve into the future and expect to get it essentially right every time. The really hard part is predicting which technology will take off and which won't, and Seba's analysis may incur a significant selection bias in the sense that he only looks at technologies like cars and cell phones and computing power that IN HINDSIGHT were the ones that took off.
I would also predict that electric and autonomous mobility will succeed and eventually replace gas cars. The picture is less clear with solar I think. There are some other energy sources that are also growing, and I'm sure you can draw S curves for all of them and predict that each of them will take over 100% of the energy market somewhere between 2025 and 2050. Something's gotta give.
Flights to the moon and Mars is a market that didn't exist then and does not exist now. This is all about disruption of established markets.
In '69/'70 we were going to have to escape the, soon to be coming, Ice Age. My parents weren't very excited because they were going to have beach front property........ after half of California was going to break off and into the ocean. My mom did not care for the beach at all.
This is all about exonential growth. Spatial exploration doesn't become 40% cheaper each year, and it did not neither in the 70's. But batteries do improve efficiency by 40% each year, same for solar and computing.
@@germaindesloges5862 Actually batteries improve by about 5 to 8 % each year on average, but still exponential.
The energy predictions have been proved wrong--in the opposite direction. The growth is exponential.
1:05 ''That horse doesn't even look like a horse'' - Damn Tony got some laughs
Tony Seba
Most neighbourhood electrical grids of single dwelling houses are not set up for each resident to charge one or more cars. Currently each block can facilitate 3-4 cars worth of 220V charging. The cost of upgrading these grids will make no financial sense, particularly in the colder regions where battery life will be seriously compromised. Then there is the issue of condo ownerns, townhouses and rental appartments and basement suites who will not be able to or won't provide the charging systems. These are serious downfalls to the great idea of world wide electric cars.
Those are all issues to be overcome, and economics will drive those solutions.
great presentation , till something new emerge.