Breaking Barriers: The True Potential of Tesla Bots!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 พ.ค. 2024
- Huge thanks to Cern Basher for joining us today. Parts 2 & 3 of this long chat will be airing over the next few days.
/ cernbasher
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Edited by: Roshan Khatiwada
#Tesla #TSLA #EVs - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
An amazingly interesting video. Can’t wait for the next ones. Thanks so much really enjoy your content.
More to come!
My mom will be 92 this July 4th. She was a switch board operator plugging in guitar codes :) We also had a party line back in the day!
Wow!
Mine too! Dad worked for Bell Telephone at the time. I remember those party lines, wild, hoot and holler.
The big question is what do these people do when robots replace them? This should be a 3 part series or an entire channel.
Let them do whatever they like. Pursue there passions
Great stuff Brian and great guest. I look forward to the other vids.
Us too!
Brian, one old time broadcasting method is still around...The "Cliff Hanger"... stay tuned, can't wait for the next episode.!!
But wait!... There's more!
Great show! Very much looking forward to the next part..
🤗GREAT INFO ℹ️ BRIAN AND CERN ,AND WE CERTAINLY WILL BE BACK TOMORROW 💚💚💚
This was excellent, thank you
I don't think the technology adoption after WWII was completely about wages but also about the level of improvements with the technology.
And the increased participation by women in the workforce.
As far as tractors go, Horse fuel could easily require 20% or 30% of the arable land of the farm they were working on.
Thank you for keeping your podcasts short. Now I have time to mentally digest this new information!
I struggle with the hour and longer videos because there's only so much time in the day, and I have a lot of channels I follow. I know I've missed some great stuff because it's stretched to a point that makes it difficult to actually get to the meat of it.
Excellent!
The movie "Robot & Frank" is a gem of a movie I am surprised I never hear it mentioned talking about relating to Optimus. It is an enjoyable watch and will make anyone want one.
I loved that movie.
I stopped this just before the comment about lying robots to watch a clip and it ended up being so relevant! (th-cam.com/video/jOhhNonXfGc/w-d-xo.html). Good on you Brian for being so quick on responding about wage theft .
When the telegraph was just starting out people couldn't wrap their heads around sending a message so quickly to such long distances. Reports of one woman who tried to send her son a pie several hundred miles away.
That's a pretty funny misunderstanding.
Cheers guys
A common misunderstanding is that technology rapidly replaces whatever came before it when it is perceived as 10 times better. But it still replaces the old way eventually. It is the perception of improvement, not the improvement. Hence all the hype.
The DDD work goals are cool but the bots are going to take the good jobs too.
Yes, that's right. The more capable the bots become, the more higher paying ("good") jobs that will be displaced.
Afternoon guys
Maybe in five years Optimus will be at a level to be produced at scale for limited tasks. The days of a robot for residential use is a very long way off.
thanks for the history lesson great stuff
You bet!
Excellent presentation.
Thank you kindly!
I disagree with Brian about the start of Bot work. Bots will begin to work by building Tesla EVs, battery packs, and components for all. After that, they will go to the general market for other jobs
I don't think so. Fast moving assembly lines are not the place for teaching bots. Sure Tesla will have some thing doing non-critical manufacturing work but tasks not related to assembly lines are where they will really start. Maybe tidying the house and folding laundry is good first job.
@@michaelnurse9089Very few people will spend $20K on a robot to fold laundry.
More Optimus videos please
i hope functions programmed into bots are stored on a hard drive or even a memory stick so if the bot has a mechanical you can just plug its functions into a spare bot. no line down time
For sure! No reason you can't have every bot in your factory pre-trained to perform every task needed.
Other than you need a big computer for inference. Already the hardware inside a Tesla is massive by computer standards, and can't get much bigger without a die shrink or shift to ASICs. @@FutureAZA
The new bot can just get over-the-air programming.No need for physical physical information
I do not agree that 'turnover' of employees is necessarily a 'bad thing'. Many may be fine with the variety.
Johnny Tesla 5 is alive
Thank you. What of the importance of personal responsibility re: taking on dangerous jobs? Removing those jobs will also remove those particular branches of opportunity, no?
Some people just don't have a choice or believe they don't have any other options. For example, if you grow up in a coal mining town, there's probably an expectation that you should be a coal miner. Others may not even know of the dangers - for example, the job in the chemical plant pays well, so you take the job - only to find out later in life that you have cancer because of likely exposure to toxic chemicals.
I lot of high risk jobs simply go unfilled. It doesn't mean there's no need to do them, just that they can't be done.
Yes. thank you. Maybe its a case of pruning a tree so that the rest of that tree can bear good fruit.
Apparently fox and other mammals caught in traps will sometimes chew a trapped paw off in order to escape. I wonder if we do likewise as described eliminating the choice of personal responsibility and duty with those dangerous jobs. That’s not necessarily a bad thing but probably its good for we as a species to be aware of that transition, to optimize personal responsibility in other parts of our lives.
There are more humanoid BOT manufacturers now then car manufacturers! Figure and Agility is the best Tesla Optimus competitors!😂 Boston Scientific is the best financed BOT manufacturer.
So with bots , whats stopping tesla from being the next Amazon competitor with millions of Tesla owners AKA buyer of Tesla product and Tesla could sell all other products aswell and use robots as laybour.
Real abundance means one shouldn't have to work. How many lotto winners choose to continue with their jobs? Should we have stopped cars to save horse and buggy jobs?
Humanoid robots will replace human workers where there is the greatest financial gain for those investing in the robots. History insists benevolence will not determine outcomes. Worse, politicians will exploit fear to hijack choice, which will increase benevolence some but mostly benefit their cronies.
Elderly care would be wonderful. I agree with another commenter that humans need human interactions. Human robots cannot solve it all.
As for humanoid vs non-humanoid neural training of robots, we will need to alter our perspective. Obviously, we’ll look at other form factors such as insects. We’ll also need to look at the perspectives of ‘outside-in’, not just ‘inside-out’ with human or insect forms. How does the human body grow limbs, procreate, repair injuries, deal with intrusions, adapt to perturbations. An entire factory becomes an ‘outside-in’ perspective, which might benefit from other examples such as human, insect, ecosystem, etc.
Fascinating stuff! Thank you for the video, and thanks to commenters for adding to it.
THE EU is making Lawes so that you need to Have INDUCATOR STALKS and a HUD or SPEEDO in the DRIVERS LINE of SIGHT ie in Front of the Driver NOT off to the SIDE to get 5 STAR SAFTY RATINGS IN the NEAR FUTURE ?
Looking forward to being pulled over by Robocop for speeding in the near future.....2035.
Hilarious 🤣🤣
What does Tesla do that isn't going to be a trillion dollars one day and simultaneously save humanity?
Right? So funny! Like in 1999 when an analyst predicted Amazon would be bigger than Sears and they were roundly mocked.
Disruption can be hard to recognize. This one seems pretty straightforward.
@@FutureAZA Is Amazon bigger than Sears? No! That's shocking.
@@FutureAZAI was laughing with the monkey joke by Cern and something you said right before that. I also think that there is a huge transformation ahead. I expect the final number of bots to end up much higher as we find use cases that would be impractical without very cheap and performant labor. Maybe transforming desert land into arable land, stripping down and recycling goods in old waste dumps (you can sadly see some of that in African slums),.. The internet use case have also grown from 1990-now as the price of data transmission plummeted and so it will with labor becoming cheaper and cheaper as the technology advances. I commend you for breaking this topic down as some people will discover this and might make a life changing investment, this rollercoaster evolution will surely be a very interesting and fun one to follow.
Not every robotics company is going to survive ,like the electric car market we have no w and the rocket industry.
As time goes on the is going to be a hand full of robotics company
Let me know when we have sales numbers or a product going out to customers. Until then I look at this as nothing more than a stock pumping project.
What I hear you saying is you don't know what a stock pump is.
None of the bot demos have moved the stock. Not the big ones, not the small ones, none of them.
@@FutureAZA I actually agree with you about that - it hasn’t seemed to move the stock. But my belief of the central purpose of it persists.
My reasoning is I distrust non-mundane goals or projections stated by Elon and I have a general cynicism towards humanoid robots. I’m assuming the worst until I basically see a real life product. Happy for my assumptions to be proven wrong.
@@FutureAZAWhen you post a Tesla video with the title $TRILLION BOTS on the cover, you are pumping the stock. Don't be so dishonest. It's not good for your credibility.
@@singed8853 RE: Distrust --- But Musk's track record of innovating and delivering (even though late) is well established. 4 cars and Cyber truck with Semi soon, Giga castings, Autopilot, 5 star crash ratings on all cars, OTA updates for fixes and improvements, efficient EV power trains, reusable launch boosters, Starlink, profitable companies employing 100K+ workers on 3 continents, ...
If you look at the underlying business: the energy storage, the EV business and the charging network are continuing to grow nicely. Tesla manufacturing is the most efficient in the world and continuing to get better. They lead the industry in Giga-casting and their EV designs and they have industry leading profit margins and they just sold over 1M model Y's last year. All the major car makers in North America have signed up to use Tesla's charging connector and network by 2025.
All this happens because Musk takes calculated risks and creates a compelling vision and hires smart hard working people motivated in part by the vision. I don't mean to say that Musk is perfect and never makes mistakes. Mistakes / setbacks are inevitable when doing something brand new or innovative.
So there is ample reason to be optimistic about Optimus especially given the AI training progress from FSD V11 to V12 well demonstrated by recent YT videos.
@singed8853 RE: Distrust --- But Musk's track record of innovating and delivering (even though late) is well established. 4 cars and Cyber truck with Semi soon, Giga castings, Autopilot, 5 star crash ratings on all cars, OTA updates for fixes and improvements, efficient EV power trains, reusable launch boosters, Starlink, profitable companies employing 100K+ workers on 3 continents, ...
If you look at the underlying business: the energy storage, the EV business and the charging network are continuing to grow nicely. Tesla manufacturing is the most efficient in the world and continuing to get better. They lead the industry in Giga-casting and their EV designs and they have industry leading profit margins and they just sold over 1M model Y's last year. All the major car makers in North America have signed up to use Tesla's charging connector and network by 2025.
All this happens because Musk takes calculated risks and creates a compelling vision and hires smart hard working people motivated in part by the vision. I don't mean to say that Musk is perfect and never makes mistakes. Mistakes / setbacks are inevitable when doing something brand new or innovative.
So there is ample reason to be optimistic about Optimus especially given the AI training progress from FSD V11 to V12 well demonstrated by recent YT videos.
I guess let them get good first in Tesla Factories then all of your listed dangerous jobs then see if you could trust them with a gun. Robo Cop and then the military, the most dangerous of jobs.
🤖
People that have jobs also need a brake and a sleep
Rest breaks, sleep breaks, vacation and sick days, time lost to injury, you name it.
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Super Artificial Intelligence) they will introduce universal basic income!? a subsidy!? there will be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!? the intellectual and motor capabilities of robots have already surpassed the average human and before 2035 there is talk of them surpassing those of any human and then again those of any human combined! regarding both body and mind! answer me please...
There will be UBI for those who are permanently unemployable, which will be an extremely large percentage of the population. The robot makers will make trillions of dollars, pay trillions in taxes, and the government will dole out the lifetime handouts.
@@darylfoster7944 I can't wait, I can't be a submissive slave to the system! tell me in your opinion a hypothetical date of when this will happen because they are talking about the start of production by the end of 2025 and the start of the marketing of robots by the beginning of 2026 so in your opinion they will put the UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME before or after 2030? (many companies are being created that are creating robots asking for funding of millions, billions and even trillions like Sam Altman to achieve ASI, super artificial intelligence because they have already arrived at AGI, general artificial intelligence that they are implanting in robots)
@@darylfoster7944I can't wait, I can't be a submissive slave to the system! tell me in your opinion a hypothetical date of when this will happen because they are talking about the start of production by the end of 2025 and the start of the marketing of robots by the beginning of 2026 so in your opinion they will put the UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME before or after 2030? (many companies are being created that are creating robots asking for funding of millions, billions and even trillions like Sam Altman to achieve ASI, super artificial intelligence because they have already arrived at AGI, general artificial intelligence that they are implanting in robots)
Why do they have to be humanoid?
Tesla elec cars worth trillions=stock$ goes down, Tesla battery storage worth trillion$=stock$ goes down, Tesla butts worth trillion$=stock goes down..... but we keep clicking and these bobble heads keep talking and making YT $$$$$
I've never said the cars are worth trillions, and I've never said it about stationary storage. I've said they could generate that much, but that's not profit, and it's not the stock value.
Maybe you're confusing me with someone else? Add them all together, and the company has already been in that range.
The stock is not going up because earnings aren't going up. It's really that simple.
Interview me. I know more about sorts than anyone.
Many claims of disruption were not right. Hyperloop was not right.
As you say, every Tesla factory is full of non-humanoid robots replacing human labor. The factories also employ human labor, but if replacing human labor with robots required humanoid robots, Tesla factories would not be full of robots already. AI innovations will enable Tesla to replace more human labor with robotics, but the robots need not be humanoid. Replacing the existing robots with humanoid robots would be ridiculously inefficient and expensive. Right?
FSD is not a humanoid robot pulling a rickshaw. It's not even a humanoid robot behind the wheel of a car, though if humanoid robots could replace common human labor, they could replace FSD in robotaxis. Would they? Would implementing robotaxis this way make economic sense? All of the overhead of a humanoid robot, as opposed to the existing cameras and electronics, seems a terrible waste for this application.
Every product of natural selection is not humanoid, and every product of industrial automation is not humanoid either. You see why, right?
Humanoid robots have a long way to go, and even if Optimus can fold a shirt without a human teleloperator in a few years, I doubt that Teslabots will replace even one percent of the human labor in Tesla factories or anywhere else. More intelligent robots will replace more human labor, but the robots will not be humanoid. Humanoid robots are an interesting R&D project, but the interest is more academic then practical.
If you want to see a mobile robot actually designed for industrial automation, search for a video titled "Boston Dynamics Robot Can Stack Boxes With Amazing Ease". It's four years old. Humanoid robots are not designed for industrial automation. They're designed to be humanoid. Human beings aren't designed for industrial automation either. They're more like monkeys.
AI will replace much human labor in the next few years, web developers and customer support operators and actors and set designers and builders for example, but it won't replace the labor with humanoid bots. AI will replace much of the labor involved in web development long before it replaces labor in hazardous waste cleanup or janitorial work more generally or the labor of migrant farm workers earning less than the minimum wage picking cabbages. The jobs you imagine humanoid bots replacing will be the last to go, not the first.
Bots aren't about to replace monkeys doing what monkeys do either. Monkeys are amazingly intelligent and dexterous creatures.
Humanoid robots will play little if any role in greening the Sahara, but more intelligent plows might. We've already had a green revolution without any humanoid robots.
Industrial robots are great, but they have their limits (they need to be programmed to make every single move and it's not safe for humans to be near them). AI that's not embodied is great, but it has its limits (AI in a computer can't move things). There will be plenty of tasks (tens/hundreds of thousands) where a robot in human form is the best option.
Hyperloop was a white paper he gave away for free so others could consider its development. There's a company in China already having success with their trials.
@@CernBasher Industrial robots can use AI and neural networks. I'm not suggesting that AI will not be embedded in industrial robots, only that the robots will not be humanoid, but I am suggesting that AI will replace much human labor long before it is embedded in robots, much less a humanoid robot. It's already replacing human labor without robots.
Specify three tasks where a robot in human form is the best option.
@@FutureAZA The Chinese company operates magnetically levitated trains. Hyperloop in Musk's white paper is not a maglev train. The company operated a maglev on a two kilometer test track in a low vacuum tunnel, and the record it set in the tunnel was only twelve miles per hour faster than an earlier speed achieved by a Japanese maglev on a similar test track without the vacuum tunnel (387 mph vs. 375).
The problem with Hyperloop is precisely that it requires a high vacuum in a tunnel many hundreds or thousands of kilometers long. If the train must stop for an air lock every hundred kilometers, it can't average a speed nearly as fast as Musk imagined. Stopping every hundred kilometers at that speed would be stopping every five minutes, so Hyperloop requires a high vacuum in a tunnel at least a thousand kilometers long.
To understand why a high vacuum in such a long tunnel is impractical, see Thunderf00t's videos on the subject.
We know what happens when someone spends half a billion dollars trying to build a hyperloop because Virgin Hyperloop (later Hyperloop One) did so before declaring bankruptcy in December of last year. The problem won't be any easier for this Chinese company to solve. Physics matters.
@@restonthewind I believe that some of the thinking about humanoid robots is subjective, in that they will be interacting with humans. Sure, the robot bringing food to your table or assisting the elderly could be just a box on four wheels with an arm, but there may be a comfort level for humans to interact with something that is human like.
Do you think that in 2035 with the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and ASI (Super Artificial Intelligence) they will introduce universal basic income!? a subsidy!? there will be free will!? an era of abundance will begin!? the intellectual and motor capabilities of robots have already surpassed the average human and before 2035 there is talk of them surpassing those of any human and then again those of any human combined! regarding both body and mind! answer me please...
Yes, there will be UBI for the permanently unemployable.
@@darylfoster7944 I can't wait, I can't be a submissive slave to the system! tell me in your opinion a hypothetical date of when this will happen because they are talking about the start of production by the end of 2025 and the start of the marketing of robots by the beginning of 2026 so in your opinion they will put the UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME before or after 2030? (many companies are being created that are creating robots asking for funding of millions, billions and even trillions like Sam Altman to achieve ASI, super artificial intelligence because they have already arrived at AGI, general artificial intelligence that they are implanting in robots)
@@darylfoster7944I can't wait, I can't be a submissive slave to the system! tell me in your opinion a hypothetical date of when this will happen because they are talking about the start of production by the end of 2025 and the start of the marketing of robots by the beginning of 2026 so in your opinion they will put the UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME before or after 2030? (many companies are being created that are creating robots asking for funding of millions, billions and even trillions like Sam Altman to achieve ASI, super artificial intelligence because they have already arrived at AGI, general artificial intelligence that they are implanting in robots)
@@darylfoster7944I can't wait, I can't be a submissive slave to the system! tell me in your opinion a hypothetical date of when this will happen because they are talking about the start of production by the end of 2025 and the start of the marketing of robots by the beginning of 2026 so in your opinion they will put the UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME before or after 2030? (many companies are being created that are creating robots asking for funding of millions, billions and even trillions like Sam Altman to achieve ASI, super artificial intelligence because they have already arrived at AGI, general artificial intelligence that they are implanting in robots)