How Big Companies Can SAVE BILLIONS w/ FSD, Semi, & Optimus
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 มิ.ย. 2024
- Huge thanks to Jon Twigge for sharing his insights with us, and a glimpse at the future.
/ jontwigge
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Edited by: Roshan Khatiwada
#Tesla #TSLA #EVs - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
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Professional truck drivers, .. just laugh at these Electric Trucks. They know Electric is a Joke !
I've interviewed quite a few who get it. Maybe you and I know difference truckers.
This is not just up to you. We all have to breath the fumes.
Have Jon back again. You guys work very well together!
I enjoy chatting with him.
NO FUD - it is reported GOOGLE is the largest investor in Walmart. Motivated to fend off Amazon's feared take over of personal / financial data collection. THIS move to adopt the Tesla Semi truck is brilliant. Cost cutting - yes. Free advertising on America's roads and highways - ABSOLUTELY. BTW, I literally live next to a Walmart semi trailer transfer hub, with close to 100 rigs swapping out loaded trailers daily, I look forward to seeing a Tesla Semi there soon.
Can't find anything on Google having ownership interest, but a great comment.
I know it sounds fake, but in 2014 it was announced. I didnt screen shoot it. but, like you I can no longer find it. Soon after the Walton family acquired several mega yachts.
Lavish 271-Foot Superyacht Owned by Walmart Heiress Nancy Walton Laurie
Seems like a Walmart/Tesla energy/charging partnership could be pretty huge also. Imagine Superchargers in most Walmart lots, getting much of their energy from Powerwalls and Tesla solar.
you also forget to mention that a robot doesn't decide it deserves free merchandise to unload on the side
you guys have hit the nail on the head-this is going way over wall street's head.
Hours of Service for truckers in the U.S. grant 11 hours max Driving within a 14-hour shift. Can work past the 14 as On-Duty - just not Driving. Exceeding either of the 11-hour or 14-hour limits for Driving is a violation. Mandatory combined Off-Duty and Sleeper Berth is 10 hours consecutive before the shift clocks reset. Cumulative limits (On-Duty + Driving) are either 60 hours in 7 days or 70 hours in 8. This is usually a uniform choice - one or the other - for drivers within a company /carrier.
One thing you are not accounting is the inspections. Drivers are responsible for a Pre-Trip and /or a Post-Trip inspection. Drivers (and their companies) are liable for equipment being in poor condition or outside of specifications. Problems need to be caught during inspections and addressed in short order. If a DOT inspector catches it, the driver and /or the equipment can be placed Out-of-Service until such a time as satisfactory repairs are complete.
My estimate is that drivers will be needed more as caretakers of the equipment - even when the actual driving is mostly autonomous. Last question: What about backing and docking? Will autonomous systems have enough finesse to handle these tricky bits of trucking?
Texas in-state CDL HOS allows 15 hr daily clock and 12 hour driving
I'm sure Tesla will figure out how to back-up autonomously.
A great solution I heard for charging, and I believe it will happen, is to put fast chargers by/at loading docks, or off to the side for the tractor to park and charge. I takes a pretty long time to empty a semi-trailer, bot or not, so charge while docked and add a few hundred miles or more.
It's been a while since I've unloaded Walmart trucks, but back in the day there was usually one that sat for hours with general merchandise, and one that was in and out in under 30 minutes with a subset of popular items. The latter would not be emptied at a single store.
@@ordinaryhuman5645 Good point. A "milk run"/local delivery truck is not stopping as long. But, this works well for BEV trucks, as evidenced by Pepsi Frito Lay. In fact, that type of run is currently better suited to electric semis than long distance (OTR) routes. That won't be the case for long though, especially if some innovative approaches to charging are taken.
@@ordinaryhuman5645 They could have mobile Mega Chargers in the distribution sector so they could roll to the Semi that needs the charge while unloading, with less investment in many fixed charging station.
Walmart is a regional private fleet. Most drivers work less than 500 miles from the shipping point.
They also use other companies to haul, especially J.B. Hunt that has home corporate office near Walmart in Bentonville Arkansas
You are completely delusional if you think there will EVER be driverless trucks.
Very interesting looking at the future disruptions thanks to you both!
Also, with a Concierge Shopping Center, shelf space would only have to be large enough to accomodate one or at most a few of any one item, this would save much room in the grocery section, where there need be only empty representatives of boxed, canned and bottled goods and only one or very few of each, as the actual packaged products would be loaded the staging area (off limits to customers). Produce and deli items for sale may have to be handled in the the more traditional fashion, but even in that case, the 'bot would be pushing your shopping cart around, assuming that it, too, wasn't automated.
Of course, you could just use an app to order what you wanted from wherever you are and the 'bots could load them up and either deliver to your door or meet your vehicle at a convenient location (maybe at the store, maybe at some other meeting area). But I think some people will want to actually walk a physical store, hence the Concierge Shopping Center.
I like the idea of 2k for everyone. I would also love a house hold bot to clean my pool, house, laundry and cook that would be so awesome 👍🏼
For everyone getting 2K, someone else is paying 2K. How about you being the one paying?
Taxing the bots activity is just rolling with the old paradigm
Regarding the issue of "people abusing the system": this applies not just to those on the low income end of the scale but also on the high income end of the scale. I would argue that on the high end of the scale there is even more abuse and that pointing the finger at the low end of the scale is a tactic used by those people to distract from what they are doing. That is where people should really be looking to prevent abuse. Not so much on the low end.
Great little series. I would say indepth, but as you said, you could have gone deeper on every section. I'd be happy to watch another, good job both of you.
Noted!
Good conversation. I'd love to be in a think-tank on all the benefits and pitfalls of rolling out UBI. I'd probably learn more than I had to share, but I think I could contribute.
It's a long road, getting from here to there (A Star Trek future of abundance)
(Apologies to the author of the theme song for Enterprise for butchering the lyrics)
I think we will end up with some sort of UBI. Capitalism, as we know it, will not work. Human labor will have no value which means no customers.
The hard problem is how do we get from here to there. The people who will need UBI first are those that society tends to value the least.
I think a lot of our current homeless problem is caused by machines replacing low-skilled jobs. When I was young many people, mostly men, did manual labor work like digging ditches and unloading freight. A couple dozen guys with picks and shovels have been displaced by a single backhoe. Dozens of men moving goods from ships, railcars, and trucks have been replaced by shipping containers, cranes, pallets, and forklifts.
Back then someone with a substance abuse problem could crash for a period of time, climb back out of the hole they were in, and find a job fairly easily. There were all sorts of jobs that required no training, just a couple minutes of instruction.
Now those jobs are gone. Get yourself in trouble and you face an essential ban from working again. It's a permanent life on the street for you.
You just took the next step towards the Utopian Socialist construct which emerges from:
.
Cheap (free) Autonomous personal transport,
(+ Cheap commercial transport!)
Cheap (trending to free) Energy,
Cheap medical monitoring/ diagnosis,
Which leads to *proper* and therefore cheap drug prescription,
Labor market disruption...
.
All of which result in a requirement for UBI, which will first "upset" the "Haves" (so much for Capitalism?) Then disrupt the monetary system.... (maybe removing the requirement for the abstract concept of "money" itself??)
.
What's the common thread?
.
(Sounds a bit "Leftist" to me 😉)
@@bobwallace9753
If you haven't already, search Ren, Money Game.
3 parts.
👍
We already live in a country of huge abundance...it just happens to be that all that abundance ends up mostly in the hands of fewer and fewer wealth individuals and corporations.
Companies are quite creative to loose their profits somehow in the 👀 of government. There are also places where you don't need to pay so much taxes as a company or a invidual. You may name a few places.
Robotic shopkeepers might be a solution for those who live in 'food deserts' or areas where shoplifting is such a problem that stores are either leaving or making shopping difficult.
Pretty much everyone can afford a smartphone these days. Do your shopping online, have a self-driving vehicle deliver and a T-bot bring the order to your door. By avoiding more expensive retail space via operating out of lower cost warehouse operations and largely automating the system prices could be kept very reasonable.
"food desert" stores?
(AKA "UK Corner shop of old")
.
Within 2 road junctions you could buy anything from electrical goods to peas to Candles.
And.....
They were open all hours.
(If you know you know... x2!!!)
@@rogerstarkey5390
There are place in the US, mainly poorer sections of cities, where the large grocery chains have left. People often to have access to small "corner shops" but choices are limited and prices high.
Watts and South Central lived it need it food dessert is a thing
I’m at 5:44 - two questions immediately jump to mind (1) when will FSD come to semis (2) how much of those 2 1/2 days is spent charging and may thus be reduced by improvements in battery technology?
Brian - in "Utopia for Realists" Bregman does a nice job of presenting the history of UBI. IMHO, it's well worth a read.
10:15 Anyone that pick up a box or handle a jack can unload a Walmart truck. An autonomous semi truck wouldn’t change anything in the store because the driver only needs to open the back of the truck. Sometimes a driver needs a signature but shippers are already switching to digital forms.
But there are people unloading, and there may not be for long.
😮
The one truth about UBI I've seen many (not all) "tests" ignore: it needs to be universal and unconditional. Otherwise, it won't work. Also, eliminating all the jobs needed to check up on the recipients following whatever rules politicians have invented is also going to be saving significant money.
18:16 - I think a bot tax unworkable it would simply be too complex.
As part of UBI you should simply give everybody enough free electricity to live. Any company needing lots of electricity to run all its bots could simply be taxed at its connection to the grid. Much simpler.
By taxing power you encourage efficiency, which is no bad thing.
Given some of the grab and run theft going on at a lot of stores, I foresee a day when shoppers will not be allowed direct access to the merchandise. The majority of the store will be an automated warehouse/distribution hub and 'shopping' will be done from kiosks in the lobby or from phone or web apps. Purchased goods will be delivered to the lobby, or to the car, or put into autonomous delivery vehicles and sent to the purchaser location. Retail is going to be massively transformed by robotics and autonomous vehicles.
Yes, example instacart use love it time and money saver
I know how much Walmart loves them some savings… [Insert: Save Now] 🎬
😂
Bots, companies and a big wealth should be taxed. I am not a one born with golden spoons around and if I ever get my golden spoons by working I believe that is then my time to pay more taxes.
I’m old, thought ‘Spam’ was emulsified ham?
Apparently email spam is unsolicited and unwanted junk sent out in bulk to an indiscriminate recipient list. Typically, spam is sent for commercial purposes.
I’m old but still learning 😊
Ubi would be inflationary and that hurts everyone. Instead, every adult should be given the opportunity for free post secondary education to pursue careers that interest them and that suits their aptitude. Too many, that are otherwise intelligent and capable are shut out of productive careers because they can't afford post secondary education tuition. In this scenario, it's a win-win for society and the individual, growing and possibly innovating the economy and not just receiving handouts.
Did they ask the guys who paid or became more indebted by $1,000 per month how much happier they were?
Love UBI.
14:50
Jon....
Sounds like Milton Keynes!
You cover all the technical aspects quite well. I would like to see more in-depth coverage of the social consequences of all these technical possibilities. Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is good for people or society. And the coverage is very US-centric. On the quality of life index the US is mot doing very well. It seems that much of it has to do with the fact that social aspects of changes are to often ignored or down-played just so that companies can make more profits. There needs to be more balance. You touch on it to a degree. I think this side needs more analysis and coverage.
taxing the bots should happen or who pays for all the services?
The flaw in ths Asimov's folly you're touting assumes that cost savings will be passed on to customers, there is no guarantee of that. By eliminating the worker skill base, what recourse is there in the event of a breakdown or failure in the system of manufacture?
Competition does that. It's why TVs cost less today than they did 60 years ago (without even adjusting for inflation.)
As much as Sony might like to sell their TVs for 10x more, there's enough competition to make that impossible.
Amazon has closed several of their walkin/walkout stores, robots could 'man' the convenience stores.
What a mess that turned out to be. Very disappointed I never got to try one out.
I want to see a quarterly shareholder report showing good sales of the Tesla Semi.
5:00 Or … you could ship it rail, don’t know that it is less cost, but it should be.
Elon's math says that self-driving 18 wheelers will be able to move goods cheaper than by rail. Add in the faster delivery and door to door convenience.
@@bobwallace9753...Elon is a conman. Rail will always have a place in shipping. Semi might change the distance to cost ration somewhat, but never will be cheaper per ton.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003
When someone makes a statement like "Elon is a conman" it totally wrecks their reputation as a rational actor.
Rail will likely continue to play a role in bulk shipping of things like mineral ore. Routes from mine to processing plant sorts of jobs.
Interestingly, rail is about to suffer a very major role with EVs replacing ICEVs, the end of shipping crude and fuel, and the end of coal plants.
@@bobwallace9753 Also, rail in the US is currently mostly burning diesel. You all know how BEV charging is cheaper than ICE gas? The same is true for trains. There's a reason much of the civilized world uses electric locomotives for most trains (yes, including freight) - typically from catenary (overhead). It's better for the bottom line. It's weird that the US railways seem so anti-catenary. (I've seen the arguments. "Unconvincing" is putting it mildly.)
Anyway, diesel trains necessarily have some competitive disadvantage against electric trucks. How much - we're probably about to find out.
@@KaiHenningsen
There are a number of reasons US rail hasn't switched to electric, as you say. Electric is better.
I'd say that the base reason that US trains haven't (all) converted to electric is that the economic advantage has not been great enough to drive the additional capital cost.
What I think is likely to happen is that, first, companies like Tesla will introduce self-driving large trucks that run on electricity and their low cost, convenience, and faster delivery times will kill a lot of freight routes. Assisted by the demise of coal and oil rail shipping.
If/when that happens we could see the government possibly leaning on the remaining freight routes to electrify. Probably furnishing some of the cost.
We should tax bots responsibly. And I know every Comment. helps Brian. The Highlander.😊
I suspect UBI is coming, but the adoption may be spotty or poorly thought out. The best way to prepare for the interim period is to set up your own 'UBI' by investing in companies that are going to benefit from Intelligent Machines. Not necessarily chip or robot makers or MI (Machine Intelligence, a term I prefer to Artificial Intelligence) software companies, but the companies that figure out how to automate and take advantage. If these corporations are getting into a winner take all race to the top, the best play for the little guy is to buy into those corporations so you get carried along with them. I know not everyone can do this and some will guess wrong but if you can, you should just to give yourself a cushion until UBI gets figured out.
Costco got me messed up with their delicious Croissants 🥐 🤨🧟♀️
You had to say the "C" word... 😉
Now me hungry
@@rogerstarkey5390 Hang in there…
Taxing bots is impossible. Just tax corporate profits properly - no reduced rates via tax havens. And then tax billionaires with a 75% death tax, or if they try to live forever, at 80 years old.
Jeff Booth tells us that deflation is the natural state of an economy because of technological innovation like this, so inflation should really be measured from that natural negative number rather than from zero. The changes that Tesla is heralding will deprive governments of this covert form of taxation and therefore of the associated wealth-generation for those closest to the money printer (the Cantillon Effect), meaning that the benefits of technological innovation will be redirected to the common man instead of governments and central banks. This in addition to bitcoin taking money out of the grubby hands of government mean it's going to get really interesting to see how governments and the banking system are going to have to adapt. We live in interesting times.
Ah man I want one of those Tesla Jackets in 2XT size
U-46 in Illinois does this! I just found out. Wish I had free lunches growing up. It’s funny, I always wanted the school lunches but had to eat food from home. Now kids rather take food from home lol and don’t look forward to school lunches
Thought you said Delhi not deli. I was trying to understand the imagination angle 😂
imagine the brian making a viral of the general and motors.. see low moo..
#karching
Produce that is one to three days fresher offers a cost savings and less write offs! Longer shelf life.
Great point!
I'm already on non-universal basic income (Social Security) so if the prognosis is correct, that shouldn't change. However, it COULD change so the survivalist prepper in me wants to take safeguards against any devastating events interrupting that monthly automatic deposit. For younger and third-world people, yes, it could take time to usher in a true and satisfactory UBI.
21:44 - re UBI - are there not very wealthy economies where we can already see this at least starting to happen and therefore learn from it - Saudi Arabia, Brunei, Norway…
Exactly. I have a script in the works about this.
Yes, continue payroll taxes when robots replace workers. At a minimum, keep Social Security and Medicare funded and stable.
Talking about bots, I wonder how Tesla bots would do security in banks and other businesses... It can actually have eyes in the back of its head, wireless communications, built-in taser, and gun, and bulletproof bodies...
The police can also have Tesla bot partner to a human. Swat teams can have a combination human/bot teams etc.
Tesla bots can be the ultimate soldier in different capacities too with built-in bulletproof bodies and self-destruct mechanism....kamikaze soldier..
Statrek world !
Hopefully minus Tribbles!
Maravilha de live
Care to forecast? Autonomous semi in 24 months?
From Tesla? LMFAO.
First Autonomous Semis will likely be "Supervised convoys" with a driver in the lead and maybe the rear trucks
That certainly seems within the realm of possibilities. Certainly Tesla should have their personal trucks running FSD with a human backup.
Tesla doesn't even use their own Semi yet. How can they do much of anything in 24 months.
@AuidTTQuattro2003 Yes they do. They run between Sparks and Fremont many times a day.
UBI is inevitable
Interesting that you mentioned Kung-Fu Brian. Only one bot needs to attend a real dojo for Dojo to train the neural net and all the bots then know Kung-Fu...we are talking some serious Matrix sh!t now. ;^)
Absolutely. Train any bot in the factory once and they'll all know it forever... and it can recommend improvements you'd otherwise pay consultants a fortune to come up with.
@@FutureAZA It's a bit of a cliche but they say, "consultants borrow your watch to tell you what time it is." And I say that as a consultant-ish. Didn't Elon call it the MBA-ification of America?
7:50 no no no, you are thinking too small. Walmart can become a concierge business. As you walk in, a "Android Sales Associate" ( ASA could be Optimus, Figure, Asimo, doesn't matter) meets you and your party at the entrance. You could then tell "him" what you want, or you could tour the store with the 'bot, selecting from sample items behind glass or otherwise safely ensconced on the floor. As you select items, they are removed the staging area in the back, and transported to a "checkout area". When you are done, you look over the gathered items, and pay if satisfied, after which bots will transport your purchases to your vehicle.
The think you have to get away from is thinking that you are replacing each expensive human worker with a bot, but instead just come at the problem of retail merchandising with a profligate number of cheap androids. This solves furtive shoplifting and gives customers a better experience, as long as they are in control and you have enough bots that they are not limited in the time they can spend with each customer.
Why travel to the store? I live in a remote area and do most of my shopping online, even some of my food purchases.
If money is free, what is its value?
If libraries are free, what is the value?
Bots will usher in an age of abundance. That means the cost of living will be so inexpensive that UBI will almost be unnecessary. Food will be grown by bots, harvested by bots, prepared by bots and delivered by bots. Same with homes. Same with heating and cooling. Same with transportation. When everything is practically free, you will have to decide not to have things.
I have a video explaining why I agree with you entirely scheduled to run on Sunday.
I would like to get Elon’s plan for money going back to the people
?
A fine question.
"How companies can save money with level 2 autonomy, the biggest fail in the freight industry and a robot that can do a couple of things via remote operator".
Cashless stores.
this would fight inflation on steroids...cost of living would be less. will corporations and the people in POWER allow this to happen....
They'll be powerless to stop it.
Since COVD-19 lockdowns my groceries have been delivered to my door by Woolworths. Ordering & paying online is so much easier. :)
The only bottle neck I see are batteries. We need more battery factories. The amount of batteries they use in one semi is the same amount of batteries as they use in 36 Tesla Y The profit margin is a lot lower because of the batteries.
Not 36. It's 7-10 depending on the configuration (of both).
Cheap goods won't be cheap to the 30% of the population that becomes unemployed.😟
What jobs are you going to go back to school to learn. The bots combined with AI they arr hoing to fo everything better more consistent.
I think the answer is a future life of hobbies. Some will want to learn a craft, or to play an instrument, or get better at sports.
Those ways of spending one's time would be options. Some might chose to do nothing but play video games. Some might spend their time using chemicals. All of that would be a personal choice. As long as some didn't choose violence or theft society would be just fine. And we should be able to deal with those last problems.
What are your thoughts?
11 hours not 10
Your son plays magic? Thats awesome, a fantastic time waster! lol, with the benefits of socialization and math and reading skills
Yes! Thank you!
@ Brian humanity is entering a paradigm shift where many of the existing system dynamics will no longer remain viable.
The full shift into a paradigm where humans do only the work that they love, where work days are 2 hr day 4 days a week, where creativity, new ideas, and innovation are explored, requires 3 components; Ai, Ai Robotics, and free energy.
These 3 components allow the potential for all human needs to be met globally for free.
The systems that will create resistence to the paradigm shifting are humans in government positions, consolidation of money to a handful of the megacorportions supplying the robots and Ai services. These two dynamics will seek to hold power, but can not carry humanity into a new paradigm of prosperity
Wal Mart saves billions because of the US Railroad System which has expanded dramatically in an operational sense because of buyout of Kansas City Southern by the massive Canadian Railroad CNI which creates a South/North line directly from Canada into the direction of Houston and ultimately Mexico. Yes Tesla can have some deminimus improvement although battery electric Vans and possibly Canoo are far more important to Walmart than the Tesla Semi. In the alternative if Canadian oil starts flowing into US refinery terminals in the direction of Louisiana by rail this could dramatically lower or at least contain higher moves in energy costs for Walmart which are unlike any other business in the USA even US Airlines or even the US military. Long $kmi Kinder Morgan Energy strong buy. Canadian pipeline giant Enbridge is another reason why Walmart is doing so well at the moment. A battery powered train could be a big deal though and the USA does have those now.
You take the person out of the truck and i guarantee the load will get stolen. We're all just one click away from buying orange cones on Amazon and making traffic go wherever you want.
Security is just an engineering problem to be solved. Let's think grocery delivery.
Each order is in a locked container that can be carried to the customer's door. The container can only be freed from the truck via software. The container would be very difficult to pry away from the robot. The container can only be opened via some sort of customer password.
And any foul play would be fully recorded. Authorities would be automatically alerted. The container could contain a geo tracking device.
Problems can be solved.
Exactly. Already happened with little food delivery robots. Easily vandalized, or just plain stolen.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003
Were these unsolvable problems?
Crime already happens. There are ways to mitigate it, and technology makes it even easier.
If the bots take all these jobs where are people going to get the money to buy the products the bots are providing.
You just took the next step towards the Utopian Socialist construct which emerges from:
.
Cheap (free) Autonomous personal transport,
(+ Cheap commercial transport!)
Cheap (trending to free) Energy,
Cheap medical monitoring/ diagnosis,
Which leads to *proper* and therefore cheap drug prescription,
Labor market disruption...
.
All of which result in a requirement for UBI, which will first "upset" the "Haves" (so much for Capitalism?) Then disrupt the monetary system.... (maybe removing the requirement for the abstract concept of "money" itself??)
.
What's the common thread?
.
(Sounds a bit "Leftist" to me 😉)
Some form of UBI. The question is how to raise the funds to fund.
One idea is for all of us to own the bots in common. Brian suggests a 'labor tax' on bots. Right now we should be thinking creatively so that we can figure out where we want to end up.
Let's think 50, 100 years into the future when bots can do everything including manufacturing and repairing bots. Energy will be free - sunshine. The need for raw materials might be minimal thanks to recycling and sourcing industrial feedstock from plants, etc. That, to me, sounds like everything is free. It would just be a case of fair distribution.
If Semis can drive themselves and if a megawatt charging infrastructure exists, good things will happen. Too bad the hypothesis is false.
You're misusing the term.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Which term?
"hypothesis"
"Semis can drive themselves and a megawatt charging infrastructure exists" is the hypothesis of my statement. I haven't misused the term. Feel free to elaborate.
You forgot "IF".
.