Expert SPEAKS! Who will win the robot race, and who is likely to fail?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 พ.ค. 2024
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It'a all going to come down to manufacturing capability. Remind me, who of this cast of characters puts manufacturing prowess ahead of everything else? Who will be the most vertically integrated?
Yes, but also scale of production, as Tesla has massive scale, for example, of battery cells, so obviously Tesla will be paying less for cells than all of these companies trying to ramp just robots.
@@tribalypredisposed Indeed...good point. Tesla will get economies of scale from all parts of their business, not just bots. Now, bots could be in the hundreds of millions, which would make the car business seem like a rounding error. Figure is impressive but the AI isn't theirs, their backers are a bit flakey (e.g., Bezos doesn't seem to care that much about Rivian or Blue Balls Origin, just wanting to stick it to Elon), manufacturing at scale is a big question, etc. It will be interesting to witness when Optimus finally talks, like the Figure bot. I guess the latter has the advantage of Open AI but Grok is getting there.
Exactly, just like with EVs. When everyone else runs out of units Tesla will have plenty and Optimus is likely to be the best eventually if not at first.
@@PlainObserver That pretty much is it - Tesla and Musk have a focus on delivery, and they rework car production now (which supposedly will save a LOT of space and be more flexible). Ok, cry me a river, but I do not see them selling TWICE the cars in a short timeframe. What I do see them is starting to use that saved space (or: some of it) to build up robot production. They can keep it all inhouse and work on the tried and tested optimizations - kick the crap out of making it faster and cheaper as fast as possible. They can ramp it up to a million robots a day in a LOT shorter timeframe than anyone else, especially if they use the Optimus as much as possible to build itself (and the cars).
Then China will win.
We’re the winners, of course. Got you and Scott in one tight vid! BTW: VOTE YOUR TSLA SHARES, EVERYONE. Next week, I’m trying to figure out how to vote my $TSLA which I have in a retirement account. Last night’s extra salty stevenmarkryan video sums up my feelings, salt and all. I hope that most folks feel the same way, and that those who think Elon shouldn’t get paid for the job he’s done over the last six years will just go … well … change their minds.
And, btw, why the heck is selling short still legal?
I DONT UNDERSTAND Y WE NEED ROBOTS at the END of the DAY COMANYS will BUY ROBOTS WEATHER THEY HAVE STAFF STORTAGES or NOT
THEY WILL INCREASE PROFITS Company's who do not Run ROBOTS will GO BUST US Company's DONT CARE ABOUT WORKERS JUST PROFITS
GOOD LUCK USA
Great discussion. It’s terrific to see Scott in a video that’s not an hour and 15 minutes long!
That's what I told him going into it. Plenty of feature film length breakdowns, but a lot of folks just don't have that kind of time.
@@FutureAZA Just watch everything at 1.5x or 2x speed
I have the Humpty Bot. Pro Tip, don't try to take it apart because reassembly is a real bitch.
Boston robot it neet, but cost wise its looks very very expensive, others use the don't let perfect get in the way of good enough principle.
Nice to hear more about Agility, which is based nearby in Corvallis.
I had no idea there were so many players in the game. It's reassuring to me that there will be competition so no one big corporation can buy them all and make the average worker obsolete.
When bots can build the factories that make bots... the human race will go through a phase change. Good or bad, it will be a game changer.
I love watching you two collaborate.
Love to hear from great minds!
Amazing that the new Boston dynamics bot can get itself back up off the ground if it falls over.
Great info. Thanks for having Scott on to summarize this important competition. I'd pick Boston Dynamics for agility and Figure for utility... hopefully Tesla can compete with that pair.
Boston dynamics not designing to build at scale IMHO. And something about Figure I'm not sure about but I just can't put my finger on exactly what that is. Time will tell, plenty of room for all niches.
This is like a robot explosion..Suddenly it seems so easy to build a robot! For decades robots struggle to even walk. I hope we don't have real winner, because than we have no competition.
What about 1X Technologies? They already have commercial customers and can scale super easy.
I think one of the early markets for robots will be sports teams. I think you could sell tickets to see a robot baseball team play against a major league team. Or volleyball, or tennis, etc. But not in sports where the robots would come in direct contact with humans, like football; too dangerous.
Contrary. Hardly anyone will want to watch robot teams and robot vs. human team is a novelty and WAY outside what the main robots are designed for - which is endurance within a given power budget, while sports people are optimized for their sports.
I like to mention Menteebot - looks like a cheap entry clanker, but its a surprisingly capable bot already - my secret favorite! Besides the usual players, there are a lot more who are popping off. Every week, there 1 to 3 more models! Always check for new ones!
Neat!
It is going to come down to who has the hardware to train and the factories to train the bots in.
We should have a commercially available Atlas 2.0 with a face of Ameca! (and a body of Harmony ;=) )
Cheers guys
For every R2D2 there is a need for a C-3PO.
I imagine all these companies will try to copy each other. I can't wait to see the competition heat up
" . . .in the fall"? Why do we keep coming back for this kind of punishment?
Nice show
Scott Walter is good value. It's impossible to predict which robotics company will come out on top at this stage. Talk about a moving target. Innovations coming from all directions. I'm hoping we'll see synthetic muscles and skin used on bots soon making them even more human like.
Uncanny valley
That Boston robots brilliantly omnidirectional but it's also super creepy to me like you see in the movies! Tesla's looks like it's friendlier and Bostons looks more military! I think robots generally will speak to bitch styled taste in the industry and all will be useful, like star wars where there's billions of types!
Also omnidirectional humanoid bot might be hard to train to use those omnidirectional abilities.
You cannot use motion capture techonlogy for gathering training data for omnidirectional operations.
Boston robot it neet, but cost wise its looks very very expensive, others use the don't let perfect get in the way of good enough principle.
China appears to be way ahead in the looks department. Check out "China's robotic waitress", she's beautiful.
@@PMLynch and human
Remember Atlas has a design for emergency services - you need a sturdy frame if you i.e. crawl into houses that may be unstable. Optimus etc. are not designed for that. This gives Atlas more sturdiness - but the price is weight etc. - the old Atlas supposedly had a 1 hour battery range. Even in the military that is a BAD compromise. So, either Atlas get a major redesign - or it is stuck on a niche. There is also a price issue for that - but in emergency situations, you may be willing to pay for this.
Bodies will come in all shapes and styles; but the key ingredient is the AI brain. That's the game changer.
Well, first of all I agree that the market is large enough that all current players will be successful, but in 10 to 20 years there will be the usual consolidation as some go bankrupt or merge with others. But right now, I see the vast majority as being very much in the prototype stage with the new Boston Dynamics robot looking more refined along with Digit and Optimus.
Winners? Besides finance and backing need to look at 1) physical capabilities (hardware) 2) software/AI and ability to learn 3) cost, which company that can scale. Based on this you can narrow the list further. Telsa #1, maybe Figure #2. I think Tesla as of now, leads in 1-3. Thoughts?
Let me save you some time: it will be Tesla/Optimus.
Hi, Brian,The next time you talk to Scott, tell him, you're a fan of Clan Douglas. The Highlander.😊❤ he will really get a kick out of that. Especially since I'm Clan Buchanan.
He'll be at the Michigan event in June. You should tell him in person!
@@FutureAZA I DM him from time to time, im doing Clan rezearch for him. Since u r the coordinator, im trying to get a. Private tour of the USS Silversides for the guest speakers on Sunday, can u reach out and see if there is intrest. I probeley mentionted it before as u know it takes time to coorneaidte. The Highlander☺️
Tesla is number 1, due to their compute, manufacturing and actuator experience.
I had counted Boston Dynamics (BD) out, until I saw the new Atlas. It all depends on BD's AI / NN.
Figure's AI / NN is the top at the moment.
You forgot to mention Unitree Robotics from China. Their humanoid robots can run faster than any other humanoid robots and it can do back flip. As I see it, the winners will be Atlas, Figure 01 and Unitree Robotics for industrial uses and 1X Technology for domestic uses. But we may still have big surprises, as Boston Dynamics as shown us this week.
Unitree is useless from the demos. Neither running faster nor backflips have any value - fine motoric and hands are more important and those have not been seen or demonstrated. They seem to focus on tricky stuff, not on stuff that is useful.
@ThomasTomiczek Unitree has a major advantage because of their long experience with robot dogs at a low price point. Their dogs were able to walk on hind legs for some time. They just rearranged the skeleton and made a humanoid "dog". That's why it has a running speed record. They will sell many of these humanoid "dogs" at a price point under $10,000. Right now their models put out for research are over $100k, but that will quickly change.
You guys discussing winners seem to be missing/avoiding the challenge of (universal) bot Self-Training/Independent Learning. IMO the bot that EXCELS in this area would seem have the best chance to win.
Good to hear this bot news review
Just because we can make them doesn't mean we should except in certain jobs that are too dangerous for humans.
There are approximately 150,000 Tesla employees world wide & I imagine there are approximately another 150,000 employees in their supply chain working directly on Tesla products. Imagine if Tesla makes one Optimus Humanoid Robot for every one of their employyees & that Optimus spends the entire time with the employee 24/7. During the day Optimus learns the employees job so that after a year Optimus can basically do the job itself while the employee supervises. Now imagine that Optimus also learns everything the employee does after work, all of the chores he needs to do in his daily life & when the employee goes to sleep, Optimus plus itself in to recharge.
Now imagine Tesla rents out Optimus to every employee in their supply chain & Optimus learns how to do all those jobs too & those employees also take Optimus home after work & it learns all their daily chores. At the end of one year Optimus might be ready for home sale to the public as well as industrial sale to other businesses. Selling or leasing Optimus to people so that Optimus can learn how to do & help people with their jobs as well as with their home life is going to be huge. Imagine Optimus doing your taxes, finding the best house, car & life insurance, the best health care all at the best price that is affordable for that person. Imagine Optimus making meals for their families, cleaning the house, mowing the lawn, shovelling snow, repairing things around the house & always giving you the best information for people to make good solid decisions.
Now imagine millions of Optimus working in factories around the world building everyday products including homes, building everything with need & use & bringing the process down for every product creating a world of abundance. What would the need for currency be if Optimus an AI working together are able to find & dig out all of the resources we need to create a world of abundance? If we are able to remove from ocean water millions of tons of resources, if we are able to find & mine billions of tons of resources from the moon & asteroid belt with SpaceX imagine the amount of resources we can find. And with Optimus imagine how much stuff we can recycle & build again when the cost of doing this with robotics reduces the costs substantially. Imagine Optimus growing billions of tons of food in Vertical Farms? The amount of work Optimus can do to help humanity is endless & more importantly should drive the costs of everything down so dramatically that currency will no longer be required & we can move to a resource based economy.
People often bring up the amount & cost of electricity to power electric cars & now Optimus but if one of the things Tesla has Optimus do is build Solar Panel Fences & start placing them on every highway in North America & then the world that alone should create enough electricity to power the world. But if is not, they can at the same time start placing solar panels on every rooftop on earth. And if that is not enough, they can start build solar driveways, solar streets & solar lamp posts, ocean wind turbines, Geo-Thermal power plants, tide technology & thurium nuclear reactors. The amount of clean green energy that can be created is also endless & will all help to power the world once we get by the need for currency. The amount of products & services we can create to help every human being is also endless once we get by currency & start to devlop within citizens to volunteer to supervise & maintain Optimus & all these power plants & de-salination plants & pipe clean water everywhere. We just have to get past the greed of the elite to be able to share the world's resources & the solar system's resources of which is almost endless with everyone instead of keeping it for themselves. Optimus is the key to all of it.
Well Hyundai is about 250 000 emplyees and are pretty used to construction at scale. They also has solar panels and what not. Tesla is a small player when compared
I’m still waiting to use my Tesla as a Robotaxi. Elon promised I could make $30,000 a year from it.
I think we are at an inflection point in human history. Agriculture was a major one. The Industrial Revolution was a major one. The Internet was one. The introduction of the smart phone was one. Intelligent machines is another one and it is going to be a major inflection point. I think we have 2 to 5 years more of life as we know it and then there is going to be a major change in how we do things. Robotaxis, robots, and intelligent software are all going to dramatically change how we do everything. This is going to precipitate a crisis unlike anything we have seen before. These next few years are the introduction and testing phase. After that there will be a massive expansion of intelligent machines of all kinds in our lives. First at work, then at home. Many people outside the AI echo chamber are going to be completely shocked at the transition and the speed at which it happens. I don't think our leadership is ready for this nor are they wise enough to handle it well.
What i want to know is, if you have a personal bot at home, what are you going to name yours? So far we're thinking Arthur Dent
Not Marvin?
@@FutureAZA nah, too obvious Brian
Marilyn Monroe
Jeeves
Humpty joles 😂😂😂😂
Boston Dynamics is the front runner 🎉
Because?
@@eternalbalance7703 They have two robots that are commercially available and have been selling like hot cakes.
@Baudelier42 Extremely limited edition hotcakes?
problem is they keep trying to make a human ...
instead of making what works best for a robot to achieve said goals
its all about efficiency Kangaroos would be funny
The reason for making a human form is because most all jobs & tasks of the world are done by humans. And the goal is to be able to replace any human job with a robot.
I can't help but shape the feeling that 90% of these new robots are just NVIDIA brains wearing different suits. If all these companies do is built the hardware for NVIDIA then NVIDIA will win, and everybody else will be a supplier in a race to the bottom on cost. The real competition is for the software and computers. That is a much narrower field.
Yeah, but how is that relevant to 1X and... especially - Tesla, which uses a custom chip?
Subaru at the top of their niche? According to the recent Bloomberg Customer Loyalty survey, Subaru has only 42% of owners who say their next car will be a Subaru.
I thought Tesla bought a lot of nvidia chips
Yes on the chips, but not on the training in-house training system.
What happens when you win the robot race do you get a trophy ?
Probably just an icon.
I just think you are very much underestimating the manufacturing advantage Tesla will have. Tesla will reach mass market scale of production first, is my guess, and then they will have enormous technology of production and scale of production advantages that will make it very difficult for the competition to sell at a profit.
I think Hyundai that has a big stake in BD has some experience of high scale construction as well. In fact they produce way more vehicles than Tesla
@@mackan7086 No shade on Hyundai, they are at the top of legacy automakers in EVs and a very good team, but they are not at the level of Tesla when it comes to automated production.
humanoid robot -> android or even droid. A lot shorter.
Oh, well, as if anyone would care…
I Don't Think CHINA will Allow US COMPANYS to SELL ROBOTS IN CHINA only HOME BUILT ROBOTS CHINA HAS a HUGE Market for ROBOTS ?
Hahaha. :)
How so?
TSLA is hot dookie. No one wants the robotaxi. Humanoid robots will be thrown in the canals like lime scooters. I prefer a broom to an iRobot. Waste your money if you feel like it though.
You joke, but I've met some real rubber handled hammers who say things this dumb without a hint of irony. Not all of them, mind you, but anyone donkey enough to think all of them wouldn't have the capacity to breathe.
Subaru's niche = lesbians.
tesla will be the iphone of bots, the rest will be the androids lol
The guy on the left forgot that Tesla is not a car company.