How Tesla Bots will Shape Every Day life and SOON
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 มิ.ย. 2024
- Huge thanks to Cern Basher for joining us today. Parts 2 & 3 of this long chat will be airing over the next few days.
/ cernbasher
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Edited by: Roshan Khatiwada
#Tesla #TSLA #EVs - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
CERN💪❤ is "killing it..." Love him on FutureAZA and Randy Kirk... Amazing insights 💪
Thank you both! You're doing a tremendous service in helping to develop an up to date awareness of what's most recently happening in the world of humanoid robots. The field is advancing so quickly now that it isn't easy to stay on top of all the new developments. It would also be helpful to know where different companies stand in their ability to create full autonomy or if their focus is in developing more specialized robots.
Yep! I heard it! Cern didn’t seem to!! At least he kept a straight face when you mentioned where the Bot was plugged in!!! You couldn’t conceal your devilish smirk either!!!!
How many others caught it but had the good taste to ignore it? Jus asking?
Best BOT Business Case Video I've seen !!!
Love Cern's research!
NOW WAITING FOR PART 3🤗💚💚💚
This is an outstanding video. I can't wait to lease a robot to help around the house and yard, Thank you Brian and Cern.
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You compare basic assumptions of what AI and bots will become. It is a new paradigm. We have little idea of what we ultimately will have created. Thanks for such stimulating coverage as always !
Thank you for this wonderful analysis of the bot revolution. You might want to prepare a presentation for the social cost of bots and how western societies will benefit from the unemployment rate that bots cause.
I'd like to hear more about the cultural and sociological impacts.
Bots are interchangeable. In the factory, if there are several bots and one breaks down any other bot can replace it. Humans may need training for a different job. The bot MIGHT require a quick software download for a different task or might just know how to do all the jobs in the factory.
Bots don't get distracted, arrive late or hung over, take time off for family, or ask for a raise. On the other hand they don't make suggestions, solve problems, or reach out to customers.
At this point the discussion went from robots moving totes around to running a factory by themselves in the dark. It’s leaps like these that make people question predictions of futurists-especially regarding timelines.
The timestamp didn’t go on but it was early in the conversation.
also the advancement in design and compute will make the need for replacement of bots. so leasing would be a way to future proof your business
And I get it, it's machines. But it's dangerous territory. Think on the implications and understand the mindset change. That's the bigger thought process. And it's something we can't ignore.
Great video !!!.....very informational......
Glad you enjoyed it!
FINALLY BRIAN 🤗😁💚💚💚
Excellent analysis! Love it.
Thank you kindly!
Interesting times
What would security for the bots look like in case of potential sabotage? How many jobs would be created for software and training support, bot supervision, back-up parts and repair, etc.
I didn't see or hear accounting for the substantial taxes all levels of government will impose on the bots (city, county, state, federal). It's possible that bots can still be fiscally viable for companies, but the bot own/lease price will have to take the aforementioned taxes into account.
I suspect these same conversations happened 400+ years ago. Food for thought.
Cheers guys
I keep going back to my understanding of the Czech word for slave... "robota" and keep thinking about how all these arguments for robots are the same arguments for slaves back in the day. I sure hope we don't add feelings and desires to these AGIs! 1:53
My question is how is government going to offset it lost employee taxes? Bots will be taxes at a higher rate than normal labor.
Hope so
Well comparing the amount of taxi drivers to the amount of workers in the oil industry and if taxi robots is also a bot but on weels how many workers will FSD replace ? 30 million cab drivers ?
Or bots can repair other bots in the field. Spare parts on hand or brought in with drone.
at about 18:01: "I don't know if you've seen what he LNI rate is for roofers but it's substantially more than their wage because it's a very dangerous job prone to injuries and uh some of them are permanent."
******** Suggested Topic For New Video ********
Optimus for installing the ( long forlorn) Solar Roof
Besides replacing a dangerous job for humans, maybe Optimus can be trained to address whatever technical issues that have virtually stalled the goal of installing hundreds of thousands per year.
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Tangential Issue: I think that one major problem has been with roofs that are not strictly rectangular on both sides; for instance gables increase complexity. I think the reason for this is fitting custom custom sized solar panels at the intersection of the gable. QUESTION: Why can't they use blank slates for this purpose? I believe, I guess for economic reasons, these are used intermittently even in strictly rectangular areas.
Im thinking skilled labor should be safe for a wile. But eventually there will be fewer and fewer things it can’t do.
The deflationary force on costs will eventually be one of the most important aspects of the automated economy. As humans are replaced in the workforce, their opportunity to earn money may become seriously curtailed. Exponentially cheaper goods and services will make that less of a problem. I hope.
Send me one Bot this way. I will teach it the Martial Arts Wing Chun.
Will be interesting to see how many people would purchase one of these to do work around their house. If only they had the money to purchase one, but cannot because their job was replaced by a bot and now they’re unemployed. The question about the economic and societal impacts of this technology is the most important question to solve. How much money I end up making on Tesla stock in the interim is of minor importance.
Times are always changing.
This is a super interesting topic with huge implications for society. For a future video, would it be possible for you to bring an expert to explain the implications of eliminating jobs for humans and what we can do to help those groups impacted the most. Maybe I am approaching this topic the wrong way, open to hear your thoughts.
I see a list of advantages. In that list “don’t get injured or disabled”, while statistical risk may be much lower than with a human you know mechanical systems do break down. Durability engineered into the product would reduce this, but not completely eliminate it. Depends on the work. Mining an asteroid or other tuff work might stress the durability of the bot. Also with yin you need yang. Where do you deep dive the disadvantages. Pro’s and Con’s I say. Otherwise great work and I love listening you guys reasoning this stuff out.
Of course it won't take long before the bots are able to repair and even replicate themselves.
@@sandybayes Totally agree. It will not be long before bots will be essentially replicating them selves. Work and the economy will be changed forever. We should send them out into the cosmos to explore for us and have them come back and show us what they discovered. Once we solve making them safe, of course.
Lack of training a new employee is huge!
One thing I don't hear much about is the Bot equivalent of Hardware3/4 in the car... I expect custom silicon and amazing efficiency. How will that compare to other bot manufacturers and how big is the moat?
Never needs a number 2
Like Picard
LoL: Or a number 1 either.
The bot's limiting factor is a working bot brain.. which is not solved yet.
This always sounds like it’s already done and only a matter of training compute, and maybe that is so, but I would like to better understand what it can do when not tele operated, what can be learned by mirroring, what can be learned by lots of video input, and just one example of a use case before we start doing any numbers. What are the people in a manufacturing company going to do when it does something silly, or doesn’t understand the logic of some random edge case in the real world. What will be the corrective measures?
I am still wondering if the bots will use digital communication or not?
Afternoon guys
Will there be Robot Doctors? Bot complains "my left leg feels dry could I have a new gasket in my actuator?"
What company is poised to take advantage of bots and TaaS if it isn't Tesla? I just don't understand the recent stock drop.
This way of thinking, both by you and Scott Walter is, surely, a massive underestimate. Work for a really decent one of these bots is in no way restricted to work that humans already do. This is why Elon used the phrase quasiïnfinite. Once people engage their imagination the things bots do will expand hugely. Even off world. By then there will be gen 3 starships, which will be able to carry up to 3000 bots per launch. Very useful in a vacuum. Very useful to build moon bases, autonomous exploration of the solar system where comms lag is many minutes and great for making a colony on Mars ...
We will eventually struggle to make them at the rate needed.
18:40 Again, even if you get robots doing almost all jobs, even you admitted they will have human minders. Are they going to be wearing parkas in the winter and speedos in the summer?
Dogs will be chasing robot mail carriers soon.
The type of advanced bot needed is at least 10 years away. Tesla was planning on 10% bots, not 100%.
Maybe you will cover this in part three but there will be another significant cost to owning a bot this will be the government there is at the moment a buffer since there is a gap between the number of jobs and the labour pool bur this will not last especially as bots become increasingly sophisticated and able to tackle more jobs. It is a two prong problem for the government firstly they lose income revenue secondary as this bites and gets worse as bots take over more jobs you suddenly have tens of millions of people who cannot work and will never work again. It is unlikely that say a couple of million carmakers can retrain as neurosurgeons.
So the government are going to have to support these people for life which means they are going to tax the hell out of bots.
This episode looked at what happens to the company. There needs to be an episode that needs to ask/explore what happens to society/laborers.
This has been answered many times already.,.. Indeed even Elon has spoken on it... Explaining it will bring a time of "abundance" and everyone will benefit....
@LJ-jq8og eventually, there will be abundance for sure, but if we handle the transition of people out of the labor force poorly, it could get ugly for a short period of time(20 years or so...).
@@whitlockbr After observing the recent corrupt trash-union behavior I have NO sympathy for laborers... PERIOD...
@LJ-jq8og you don't seem to understand the gravity of the situation. Paid jobs will be non existant in the next 20 years. Labor unions are a sign of irritation from folks that do work.... we're going to have a full on revolt by everyone from waiters to reporters and steelworkers
@@whitlockbr Reporters are lying narrative-feeding scum too... So I look forward to it...
Disadvantages -- must be maintained and charged.
I work to make money for my needs. Would the bot make things cheap, maybe free? If not, what industries would human be good for?
who will be able to buy the products they make
THE EU is making Lawes so that you need to Have INDUCATOR STALKS and a HUD or SPEEDO in the DRIVERS LINE of SIGHT ie in Front of the Driver NOT off to the SIDE to get 5 STAR SAFTY RATINGS IN the NEAR FUTURE ?
No they aren't. You need buttons that aren't on the screen. Tesl has those.
You lost me at “butt plug”. (actually, I imagined an SNL, skit, with Will Ferrell as a researcher, making a sales pitch for the importance of robotic butt plugs).
That reminded me of an episode of Red Dwarf where Kryten becomes a human and ask’s the question how do I re-charge then says I think I’ve found the re-charge port, but it keeps falling out 😂
Will there be 100, 000 Optimus Bots by 2026
No, 99,000.
What will happen when bots can build bots?
Either the value of labor will collapse, along with all of society, or we'll figure out a way to get those fruits of plenty to the masses, in which case we can all be Soundcloud rappers.
Bots get stuck. All of them.
I think the humanoid bot is so far out and overly optimistic. Even if the bot was here today, it would better suited for security or military deployment. The perfect soldier. It’s far easier to AI train a bot shooting at hostiles than factory work. This can be a boon military contractors.
will upgrading be free… or what..🎉
TBD, for now.
I mean, go back and re-watch your own video and substitute slave for robot, and then think on what you are saying. It's very mind provoking.
Optimus is going to have to pay income tax otherwise there'll be no tax revenue
The business will be taxed for bot labor. And they will gladly pay it……because profits will soar.
Yeah we need taxation to pay for mass retirement of humans@@FloydCotton-hx4jh
It is possible/probable that taxation will be required to reduce the risk of anti-robot legislation.
The other issue is, what happens to all the "displaced" workers, when that eventually happens? How do they support themselves? Universal Income?
It's very ironic that Elon Musk is saying the biggest threat to Civilization is infertility humans are going to be made redundant and he's the chief Architect of robots@@janhawranke8064
"money grease"? Oof too soon.
Maybe I'm too young, or from too far North or West, but your comment sounds like it's from a different dimension.
1:15 A robotic tractor also has all of these advantages. Why have a humanoid robot drive a tractor when the tractor itself can be robotic? Why a humanoid robot driving a car, much less a humanoid bot pulling a rickshaw, rather than a Tesla with FSD? AI can make humanoid robots more intelligent, but replacing human labor with humanoid robots makes less sense than replacing the labor with more specialized, intelligent robots. The human form doesn't add productivity in most industrial applications.
We can do so many jobs because we're more intelligent, not because of our ape physiology. Automating everything about the ape physiology to achieve industrial automation is mostly a waste. Humans can swim underwater with scuba gear, but we'll never swim underwater as well as dolphins. If we want underwater robots, robotic dolphins make more sense than than robotic humans. Maybe we'd give the dolphinic robots arms, but putting fins on robotic legs designed for bipedal locomotion to create an underwater robot makes no sense.
"Never gets sick" is misleading. All robots break down and require routine maintenance. Humanoid robots would too if we needed them for industrial automation, but we don't need them anyway. We can replace a broken bot with another bot just as we can replace a sick human worker with a well worker. Calling the human "sick" and the robot "broken" doesn't materially change anything.
More intelligent robots will transform everyday life, but the robots will not be humanoid.
Also, we won't automate everything humans do with more intelligent machines just because we can. Humans still need things to do. Even if humanoid bots could replace porn stars, I'd rather do that job myself, and Sora can replace porn stars without bots anyway.
You imagine a future full of humanoid bots because science fiction paints the future this way not because industrial engineers with AI will build a future this way. Remove "humanoid" from all of your slides, and they remain true. The human form is not the pinnacle of evolution. That's just anthropocentric thinking.
An EV company can start making robots employing innovative AI, but a robotics company already making bots can too. The robotics company can also start making EVs. You imagine a future with Tesla making everything because you own Tesla stock, not because market economies produce monopolies. Market economies don't produce monopolies. Your future with armies of Tesla bots doing everything looks more dystopian than realistic.
I’m sure a bot could be programmed for inappropriate behaviour if that’s you thing ;-)
Bots making bots making bots making bots.
Given the history of cotton harvesting in the US, "monkey grease" is an unfortunate choice of terms...and I'm not even in the woke crowd.
Except that it was in regards to every cotton other than US grown. What are you even talking about?
@@FutureAZA Thanks for responding. I meant no disrespect and yes, your remark was about cotton grown elsewhere. I just thought it was an awkward juxtaposition of circumstances. I must not understand the context with regard to cotton raised elsewhere. I know about grease monkeys but not monkey grease. Please ignore and continue the good work!🙂
Advantage is Bots don’t need Shawn Fain’s 40% Labor cost or Strikes.
What would be the odds that the bot manufacturing top sales list will end up looking very similar to the auto manufacturing top sales list? Both Toyota and Hyundai are investing in AI and robotics and have the track record of pumping out low cost, profitable products en masse. The original Toyota, which Toyota Motors is an offshoot from, just happened to become the largest materials handling equipment producer (forklifts, etc), just like Toyota motors became the largest auto manufacturer. Probably just a coincidence. But most importantly, very odd behavior for a company which reportedly is "just a car manufacturer".
You have reviewed the technical and economic issues around robot implementation. However, you have ignored the cultural and sociological impact.
Beware the Luddites!
No one has ventured to speculate on how do we address millions of workers displaced by the robot invasion!
How will they react!
Early signs may show up in Uber drivers and truck drivers when Robo taxi and Robo Semis are introduced.
Extrapolated to universal implementation, our society will not be recognizable.
Careers become obsolete, because work to live is no longer required.
Do we then all live on UBI?
With no careers, is universal education obsolete? If so in 2 generations is the bulk of human population illiterate and ignorant leisure class?
What will people do with their time? Cause problems?
No worries - there will be Robo cops to address the troublemakers.
Robots are a great opportunity, we simply MUST anticipate the social and cultural impacts - globally.
So true
UBI abundance for all
Understand list for robots. There is nothing that explains the humanoid aspect. Give me three hands on arms and tripod legs over a humanoid design. Dumb takes.
Humanoids isn't a good fit for working in a sweatshop assembling iPhone.
You only need a couple of arms, and perhaps three-fingered hands.
You are right in that there's better designs than humanoids for most jobs.
But if you can build humanoids, you can do other kinds too. We will get to that eventually.
Threepod legs isn't optimal either. Do you like 3 wheel cars?
No, 4 wheels on foldable legs is optimal! You can even walk in stairs or terrain with those.
It would move like a roller skating waitress, but also stand steady on locked wheels.
Have you noticed 5 wheeled office chairs? Seen any 3 wheeled ones lately?