The irony is how much freedom did The Sisko have? The profits wouldn’t allow for The Sisko to die. So his path was chosen. I think the writing in DS9 biggest mistake was making the Profits a real tangible (as tangible as a non-caporable life form is) thing. Sisko path was written. His free will may be limited. If Sisko didn’t fight the Dominion War he wouldn’t have locked the wraiths away.
@@toddfraser3353 Sisko was given a choice by non linear beings who could see all possibilities. If he continued on to Cardassia, he would know only sorrow. If he had stayed on Bajor he prob could have stopped Dukat and not died.
Kirk wouldn’t have surrendered. “I don’t believe in a no-win scenario.” Janeway wouldn’t have surrendered. Archer wouldn’t have been allowed to choose. BUT. Picard would have negotiated an armistice. Quark would have bought his peace and eaten it too. Garak would have stolen and tailored his freedoms back.
kirk would have F*cked every jem hadar to death. or....just.....talk....like....this....to....bore....them ...to.....death Janeway would make Weapons of mass destruction. Break every rule and somehow gets a promotion out of it. While punishing others for doing less hard version of the same. Archer would try and fail. And just go full sisko on it. Picard would have talked so much that indeed they would have seen it their way. Quark, would have made a deal. and it blew up in his face. But his friends save him. Garak.....would use his contacts to make the dominion his slaves.
Britain in 1940-1941, after France falls, before USSR and USA are involved, and are all alone and getting smashed by Germany...at that time it was NOT believed they would prevail. Glad Churchill was around and not you
90% of his "counter argument" is based solely on hindsight. Like you said, through much of World War II, there was little hope for the "allied forces" in Europe Asia and the Pacific. The Nazi War machine crashed through much of Russia, captured France, and made significant progress in gaining control over almost the entire Mediterranean region. Without the extraordinary factor of Isolationist America joining the war in 1942 (I know, war was declared in 1941, but weren't ready for actual deployment), it was unclear if Britain would have been able to hold out for another year. You can't use hindsight to judge historical decisions made with modern knowledge of the situation. But why am I ranting to you? you did nothing to deserve it. You understand what I'm saying better than the maker of this video.
Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.
This isn’t exactly correct. Churchill took over just before the Battle of Britain; which is the turning point in the war as far as the U.K. is concerned because that’s when Germany cancelled its invasion plans and decided to just try to starve us out. We knew we could match the Luftwaffe’s bombers with our RAF Spitfires and Hurricanes (which did most of the work, by the way - but the Spitfire has a cooler name, so it gets the glory). All we had to do was hold off the full might of the Luftwaffe when the inevitable battle came and we had a fighting chance of coming out of the war relatively intact. We thought we might not be able to destroy the Nazis once and for all, but we knew Britain was defendable; and that meant we wouldn’t lose like France did. The parallels with the Dominion taking over the Federation are therefore closer than you might think.
GameHammer Classic Gaming Brits fought tough but there’s no way long term they hold out alone. Tough little island but there’s a reason Churchill was begging the USA to join
Sisko should have said, "Dr. Bashir, if I asked you seven years ago to calculate the statistical probabilities that a stable wormhole to the Gamma Quadrant would be discovered near Bajor, that aliens in the wormhole would select me as their emissary, and that half of the Alpha Quadrant would then fight a war with invaders that came through that wormhole, exactly what odds would you have calculated?" Bashir: "Perhaps one in ten billion, sir." Sisko: "And yet, it all actually happened. If you can't use your mathematical model to correctly predict our current status from a starting point a mere seven years ago, how can you expect to use that model to correctly predict events five generations from now? Or even seven years from now?" Bashir: {silence for several seconds} "Point taken, sir. I withdraw my request to submit these findings to Starfleet Command." [roll credits]
While i agree with the above comments, was Lore Reloaded perhaps computing the population of the Earth at that Stardate ? what was the population of the Earth during the Dominion War ?
@@Soliprem 9B sounds more reasonable although we're already at 6.5 i think, I'm fairly certain it's mentioned in TNG/DS9 or voyager what the pop is. An estimated casualty of 900 Billion is a lot considering i think there were 183 member worlds but obviously some worlds would have larger/smaller pops and some would have higher/lower birth rates so maybe there's no way too tell.
I would never accept dominion rule. There gonna have to pull my phaser rifle from my cold dead hands. And yes I’m a member of the F.P.A (federation phaser association)
Not to mention that the Dominion would have wiped out the entire population of earth if they had won.Weyoon said it so to Du Kat.So yes they could take this so called peace and and put it into their Clone-asses.
So you are Guinan (or at least like her)? Someone who beats trained combat veterans (like Worf) in practice simulations? :D ^^ ps: Would stand with you, despite not being a soldier (never wanted to be, despite having a fascination for weapons and combat - but from a schoolar's POV, not a soldiers!)
Accept for the fact that the Federation is much like our Democrat party today and they would have banned then seized your assault phaser rifles and left you defenseless against Dominion aggression.
Dominion: i have an army. Starfleet: We have a Sisko. The Founders: We are gods you dull creature! And we will not be bul- SMASH! SMASH! SMASH! The Sisko: Puny gods.
Kirk, speaking of Khan, “He was the best of the Tyrants.” Spock looked at his captain and coworkers in astonishment that they could look at a despot as anything but. I wonder how Kirk felt about the “best of the tyrants” in the end, actually I don’t have to wonder, I know.
Odo was the key to the war. Even the female changeling admitted that the founders would give up the entire alpha quadrant if they could have Odo return to the great link.
They were given everything Starfleet had. That doesn't mean their information was accurate or complete. Starfleet might very well have vastly overestimated the Dominion's capability.
@@LoreReloaded I don't believe they had the wormhole alien information. And if they did then that is proof positive that they would have been wrong from the outset.
This episode bothered me right after it aired. This takes place shortly after The Sisko magic's away THOUSANDS of Dominion ships. And these augments are like. "Nope gonna lose!" If anything that variable should have totally changed their estimates. And I would go a step further and say it was the Alpha Quandrants Founder that was being to stubborn to realize surrender to the federation alliance was the only outcome to save lives. (Not that she cared about the lives of solids.) The writing was on the wall the moment the Defiant alone emerged from the wormhole but no one in the Dominion would accept it except maybe Dukat but he was to busy losing his marbles.
Yeah seeing as THE FOUNDERS didnt control the Wormhole the Phophets did.. if the Phophets decide NO MORE DOMINION may pass.... that's it... end of war. Feds win.
@@robertagu5533 whats if q says fuck the dominion. "fed is my toy, not yours. here dom deal with this borg cube i throw in your teritorry" the premise is stupid cause you never have all the informations, m,aybe a time traveller should have told them the future and not some smart people. at least it would make more sense.
Yeah, Sisko is Mad. That's how DS9 is. Wouldnt ever wantt a Leader like that. Or even a foot soldier like that. But Bashir isnt much better. I bet he believes he thinks what he says is true - but i would not listen to him. Honestly, i would not listen to him if Bashir says this. I would definetly listen if Q says it. Yes, Going down fighting just for the sake of it is stupid. It's Klingon. It's Sisko. Not logical or anything. BUT Bashir and his Merry Gang of Weirdos are not Gods. At all.
One thing to consider, what sort of deal could the Federation get from the Dominion? Becoming a slave race that gets genetically modified at a whim to revere the Founders or as punishment, or partners like the Breen were…would be. The Federation had desirable traits amongst some members that would have greatly enriched the Dominion if thier biological and technological distinctiveness had been added… . .. Humans are adaptable and innovative, although that would also make them difficult to control. Vulcans are very useful, both physically and especially mentally, and they would be less likely to stir up trouble. Betazoids are possibly the single most desirable Federation species the Founders would want to co-op. Their telepathy is a game changer, but it doesn't work on Changelings (although it can detect a Changeling by the lack of telepathic contact… something Starfleet should've exploited, and just imagine getting one in range of Wayoun!!). Which reminds me, could you do a overview of the plot of the Battle of Betazed, what was that forbidden power - and how would Betazoids change afterwards, in attitude and politics. Militant Betazoids that are grim and pragmatic are a scary concept. Stick in cosmetic alteration of eyes to look human and you have a very effective operative or whatever.
The point of view "surrender to save your lives, you don't accomplish anything by throwing them away" is not only short-sighted, but proven wrong in multiple instances of the show *starting from the first episode and running through all the way to the final episode*. The reason I say it's short-sighted is that this isn't a binary existence. There isn't just the Dominion and the Federation. There's hundreds of thousands of space-faring civilizations in Trek, and I'm sure none of them want to be dominated by the Dominion. This is going to be a hard pill to swallow, but it's very easy to say that you'd like to spare your own life by giving into the demands of tyrants. But you don't just fight back for your own sake, or the sake of your freedoms. For every person that must come after you, because that growing force will not just stop with conquering you. Every time you fight, every time you push them back, every delay that you cause, is giving every other civilization a chance to advance and grow. And if that sacrifice had bought *your* civilization a few centuries to build up your military, you'd be quite thankful for that fighting chance that other people laid down their lives for. Conversely, if you roll over and abide, if your people don't fight and even passively contribute to the tyrant, that tyrant grows fantastically in power and speed. We aren't told about the early days of the Dominion, but if even half of their subordinates fought to the bitter end instead of rolling over, it's entirely possible that the Dominion would never have grown to be such a threat in the first place. This is even demonstrated throughout the show, as I've said. The show *starts* with the Bajorans, having endured their own holocaust, occupation, and pitched terrorism battles against a galactic empire, throwing their oppressors off their home planet. Despite never having the odds to win, they did. The show *ends* with the Cardassian freedom fighters, having their entire terror cell network obliterated, but still manage to rise up against the odds and throw *their* oppressors off their home planet. Yet every moment of that could have been considered by the same logic "Surrender to save your lives, as many lives as possible. Surrender your freedoms and just do some minimal bootlicking to appease these people, to spare your lives". Tyrants *count* on you adopting that logic. They are empowered by it. And they are, subsequently, defeated by rejecting it.
Julian's also assuming the Federation is a monolith...the Federation very would could've broken up if there wasn't 100% agreement from 150 member world to surrender, and while the Dominion might've had a slightly easier time with a "dissolved" UFP, it may well could've been slowed and then gotten stomped on.
"Conversely, if you roll over and abide, if your people don't fight and even passively contribute to the tyrant, that tyrant grows fantastically in power and speed." Well said!
but the question is, would the Vorta have covered it up and maintained 'the order of things', at least until Laas and the other missing changelings take their place ? Or would Odo have accepted power given that the other xenophobic changelings were wiped out ?
Jose Belmar Section 51 should have neutralized Bashir. By either imprisoning him or murdering him. They made a huge mistake by not doing so. If I were the chief medical officer I’d have let Odo die. Any of the Founders left alive could be eliminated one way or another
@@josebelmar5951 AH but you point has one problem since odo was infected when they found laas then hes infected too and he loves to shapechange too much so hes toast
@@danielwilliams6082 Section 31. If you were chief medical officer of DS9 and you had the chance to save your friend you would do it. Or if you wouldn't and people found out that you didn't well there goes you practicing medicine in the federation. There goes your commission you'd be stripped of and possible spending time in a labor prison.
@@LoreReloaded you know the whole situation has gone to hell for the federation when we start quoting the Ferengi bartender. Basically the bartender should have been station commander.
Biggest problem with the analysis given by Bashir & Co. is that they didn't have all of the variables known to them when making their recommendations. Things like the Section 31 genocide plot and "Divine Intervention" potential of the "Prophets". Hell, even other unknown future events such as Insaneway returning from the Delta Quadrant a few years later with a Borg tech upgraded starship would have likely altered their long term projections. I'm fairly certain that if they had factored in those variables, then their recommendation would have been considerably different.
Indeed. The end of the TNG era saw the Feds defeat or suborn all competitors and expand their capabilities at a whiplash-inducing rate. And given how big the Fed had become by the end, and the fact that it had a presence in all four quadrants, it's pretty near impossible to imagine any heretofore unknown competitors lurking in the shadows. If they were big enough to stand up to the new superpower, they'd be too big to have gone unnoticed in the suddenly much smaller galaxy. That's why I'm so desperately hoping that PIC shows the Feds as being well on their way to a Class III hegemony, like the Foundation or the Galactic Republic. Picard, Riker, and the other old-timers are nervous because the captains of the new mile-long starships that each single-handedly outgun a cube have never had to fight for their lives or dealt with an alien culture from a position of weakness, and can't get entirely comfortable with how cocksure the new generation has become, even though they're glad to have created this historic opportunity.
@@aperson22222 You are a real fan. However, I have the lowest of expectations for Picard. I'm hoping that they do find a way to put in some depth and thought provoking stuff to go with the sure to be high concept braga like plot.
I find this kind of imperfect jugement and decision on the part of the characters, one of the greates strencht of DS9, everybody is imperfect and comfronted to circumstances will make the decision they think is the correct one or fail to do so also knowingly.. and that's reality, there's never a perfectly cleart path before us and we try or don't try to navigate it! Love your analysis of this dilema!
Don’t forget the conversation between Dukat and Weyoun, where Weyoun wanted to eradicate the entire population of Earth to stop rebellion before it starts. Surrendering to the Dominion means a lot of culling, no matter how you look at it. At least they have a fighting chance - as the doctor calculates a 30 something percent chance they can win later on, which Garak calls insulting.
Acceptable casualties. I’m a veteran my choice will be to always fight. But as I said in my other comment there is a conversation between Wayon and Gil Dukot where Wayon specifically says they would wipe out Earth to prevent a rebellion from starting there. Because they predicted that too.
@@LoreReloaded How am I strawmaning you? We are talking about a fictional world/universe. It is not real. Now i see you may have taken it as a real world question...but no I am asking what freedoms should be given up for Peace in the star trek universe.
@@LoreReloaded I'm not sur it's strawman-ing, what make you thinks the children of the childre of the children of the children of people of the federation will rise against the Dominion. After all if they rise they risk everything right ? Why risking everything when you could bend the knee? So they will push the burdden to their children, like their parents do to them , maybe ? Thanks for the vid.
What you forget is that every one told churchill to surrender to Hitler for the reasons you gave if we give up 1000s of people will live but "what is a life under an iron fist." This is the same man who didn't cut public founding of art as the country was at war and be bombed day by day because "what are we fighting for if we take away the people's culture and pride" war is not about numbers
"Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines." "It may be better to be a live jackal than a dead lion, but it is better still to be a live lion. And usually easier."
Ironically, if they hadn't been betrayed theyd actually won that one. Especially since the Athenians were kicking the Persian asses at sea too. If a good sized Reinforcement Greek army had showed up... then even coming over that flanking pass wouldnt have mattered. The Persians had nothing heavy enough on the mountains to hold it
It's been a minute since I watched the episode, did they say the Federation couldn't win or the Fed/Klingon/Romulan alliance can't win? When you come up against a stronger opponent, get stronger allies.
The biggest flaw in the calculations of the Genetically enhanced group was they solely looked at the current loss ratio. Which was very early in the war. It was made very clear that as new ships came online the Federation loss ratio got exponentially better. Partly due to better ships and it was noted that wartime built Dominion ships had weak points and they were haphazardly bolted together. By the second year of war The Dominion was loosing a war of attrition.
The irony of this is that the group who recommended the surrender, at the price of the loss of freedom, already had their freedom taken away. That is the elephant in the room in this situation.
I've always took the moral lesson from this episode as being that sometimes numbers don't tell the full truth when humans (or in this case sentient beings) are involved, essentially everything's going to plan until some hot shot named Alexander shows up and screws with everything
The way Lore talks about peace with the dominion, I am reminded of the 76th rule of acquisition: "Every once in a while, declare peace. It confuses the hell out of your enemies."
For those who thought "but the federation won in the end", there are three major factors the enhances DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT when they made their predictions: 1) The changeling plague had not yet emerged as a factor. 2) the Cardassians were still firmly on the dominion side and had not started resisting, 3) The federation tricking the Romulans to join the war was probably considered as something the federation wouldn't do and was not included in the calculations. Increasing one side by 1/3, shifting another to the other side by an unknown amount, and throwing in mental and physical deterioration by the leadership of one side plus species extinction anxiety/desperation very much changes the numbers.
yet more reason not to accept their model as reality. If they cannot accurately predict a mere few years into the future accurately, how could they possible predict 5 generations in the future accurately?
That’s… the WHOLE BLOODY POINT THAT EVERYONE IS SAYING!!!! SURRENDERING WAS A HORRIBLE IDEA, and if they had done it, any alternative universe traveller finding the timeline where they didn’t would have ripped them limb from limb for being the men and women that destroyed the human race.
To this day I wonder why Starfleet didn't look to history and implement a WW2 style mobilization effort as soon as the war started. Imagine the Starfleet and the Klingons darkening the skies of Mars and Quo'nos with so many docking bays that by the end of the war the Federation is pumping out ten new ships a day, The Dominion is like "WHERE DID THEY GET ALL THESE SHIPS!?!" and that at the end could've led into a new show with commentary on our post WW2 society and all the triumphs, trials, and tribulations that it brings.
Except that wasn't the price of peace! IT was the price of what "might" be a lasting peace. Compare the Munich agreement in 1938. At the time, seemed like a "low" price of peace. History proved otherwise. And I think Sisko saw things were moving in the same direction.
If I remember correctly, they weren't in access of classified information. Futhemore, I believe the federation genocidal biological preemptive atack was never put on the table for them.
The genius thinkers didn't take into account the Prophet of the worm hole. Sisco is more then just human. He is also the Prophet . This is something giving Sisco almost Q like plot twist ability with anything concerning the worm hole. The Dominion has to access the that wormhole.
Imagine what would've happened if the Federation had done something crazier earlier, like respected the borders of the Dominion. Who knows what could've happened? I mean imagine they could have had diplomats discuss the situation and shown the founders not all solids are hostile.
You and lore believe Dominion propaganda. The alpha quadrant became the enemy as soon as their existence was known to the Dominion. Violating their borders like they own the entire gamma quadrant is just a convenient excuse.
The war with the dominion would have happened regardless. The only mistake Federation made was been naive, they should have worked with Klingons and Romulans earlier to either destroy the wormhole, mine it immediately after the first wave of dominion ships, or police the wormhole. Setup 5 stations in the gamma quadrant and another 5 in Alpha quadrant. Move ds9 to Bajor orbit. Militarize the wormhole and screen every passengers that comes and go through it. Then park like 30 ships in the gamma/alpha quadrant for defense.
You make a good point. Sisko's position is- based on its stated principles- dangerously irresponsible; that he wouldn't change even IF the 9 billion deaths were a certainty. What I'd rather have seen Bashir's opponents argue- what I'd argue- is the last two decades of Federation history. The Q. the Borg. The wormhole. Recent history is replete with external or unknown forces that would render any future predictions made before them moot, because they radically altered the course of the future via something that was unknown at the time. (And it's probably Section 31's changeling virus that did the same to the genetically-engineered calculations here). There is always the possibility of an external factor which cannot be calculated for in statistical probability prognostication. These future predictions couldn't be relied on because they only factored in what was known; and the universe is full of the unknown. Choosing to fight on in the belief that there is always a chance those calculations could be wrong (especially with the recent proof of Prophet intervention regarding the Dominion fleet as an excellent indicator that such things are not mere wishful thinking, but really DO influence the course of events), I could understand and even root for. Simply saying 'it doesn't matter if it's true, I'd fight and die either way'... that's a problem.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy” There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.” “who wishes to fight must first count the cost” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
The super smart people specifically said the rebellion would start at earth in 5 generations. The Dominion said the first thing they're going to do is eliminate earths population because that's the greatest risk of rebellion. So ya... way to go super smart people
If the analysis was based on certain assumptions it would be interesting to try and find out what those assumptions were. The smart move in the situation would be to identify the key assumptions which result in the unfavorable outcome and focus on changing them to make a more favorable situation This may be a motivation for the events of "in the pale moonlight" if I remember the timeline right
I cannot think that the Dominion wouldn’t just exterminate the human race after all the trouble we gave them. Had the federation negotiated, they’d likely just have occupied the federation.
I agree with Sisko it’s better to go down fighting. Never surrender. Remember the Dominion said they were gonna wipe out all life on Earth to prevent the rebellion.
Even thought the Federation did not take there suggestions they should have keep on the enhanced humans on as advisors as they proved far more able to read and predict the Dominion better than any Federation officers. Just imagine if Star fleet had any intelligence in fleet deployments defense plans and attack plans
Imagine if during the Dominion War (or a similar scenario), a new much greater (common) enemy emerged and both sides had no choice but to temporarily surrender to this new enemy... ultimately leading to a Federation/ Dominion Alliance ..?
It's been a long time since I saw DS9; did Bashir ask the theorists to re-run their numbers under the assumption that the Federation war effort _wasn't_ being run by blithering idiots? I suspect that might have changed their conclusions somewhat.
Well considering statistics and speculation become less reliable as time goes on, to the point where 'seven generations from now' is worthless, I cannot blame him. Also, suffer not the Xenos to live and all...
Coming from a part of the US that has a more neutral opinion of the various wars fought, I must say this: Sometimes, it is better to run, saving one’s self and one’s culture, than to stay and be destroyed by those who claim you as an enemy. Promises are paper thin in politics, and only someone with the strength to enforce a contract will find it kept.
John Lovelace Replace the word cowardly with “persecuted and denied basic constitutional rights” and you’ll know exactly where. We’d love to meet you, but if you really have the capacity for hate... well, I feel sorry for you.
@@SchneeflockeMonsoon ah yes playing the victim card. No one who lives in the USA, or Western Europe (and I throw in the entire Anglo-Sphere) is a victim when you compare your situation to everyone else in the world and 99% of people who have lived on planet Earth throughout history. Perfect? Certainly not. Victim, absolutely not.
@@SchneeflockeMonsoon All is relative, and even those who live in abject poverty in the USA and Western Europe enjoy a higher standard living than the vast majority of humans who have ever lived on this planet. I pity you, a sad thing for a man to live as a coward.
Starfleet and the klingons were guaranteed to lose the peace so why would they make a deal? Any type of treaty would just put them in a cold war situation giving the dominion time to rebuild and isolate the federation from the rest of the quadrant politically
Which kinda makes Bashir's brethren traitors despite bein designed geniuses since they jumped to conclusions and it NEVER occurred to them they could be wrong and that some scenario of what could happen DID in fact happen.. basically without them at all
@@harrypothead42024 no but they DID cross the line into that territory late in the episode. When they attempted to contact the Dominion.. which WOULD be in universe Treason had they succeeded
That bit about the faction rising up is the part that a lot of the "dont trade liberty for safety" quoters seem to forget. Bashir isn't saying just give up and hope the new overlords are kind. Part of the plan is to live to fight another day. It isn't pretty and it isn't ideal but if the choice is regaining freedom later or extinction now, its an easy choice.
One of the biggest issues is that Bashir said the revolt would start on earth. But in another episode the founders said that the first thing they would do is wipe out the inhabitants of the earth. As a result the Bashirs prediction was wrong and it’s a dam good thing that no one relied on it because he didn’t have that piece of information that changes everything. That’s the problem when you make data based predictions they’re only accurate if you actually have all the data in this case they did not.
She isn't there during the war right? Otherwise the Federation would have busted out the Armor and Transphasic-Torpedos (and whatever other technology Voyager brought back, including whatever was copied from Admiral Janeway's shuttle (I think they did a database-dump to Voyager's computer, despite most of the tech being incompatible with Voyager's systems!)) and made beating the Dominion a cake-walk (taking pot-shots at even the mightiest Dominion ships and one-shotting them like they did Borg-Cubes!) Hell, quantum-slipstream alone (or coaxial-warp!) would be a game-changer with ships being able to be rapidly re-deployed (defensively, but also for quick offenses to create a superior-numbers situation and quickly retreat once Dominion reinforcements arrive...hell a sowing chaos campaign (especially if they also start using cloaking tech!) would beat the dominion, too with superior FTL-Drives!)
As they say, history is written by the victors. In this case, the Federation won and the geniuses were wrong. Honestly, the best tactical move would have been to close the wormhole. The Dominion was a few decades away from being able to get to the Alpha and Beta quadrants without it. I know they tried or....something....but seriously.
The problem had had with Quark in that episode is that niether the Federation, nor the Cardassians were willing to give the Maquis what they were fighting for. The only way for there to be peace was for them to either submit or die. The Federation and the Cardassians would get what they want, but not the Maquis they got nothing or whatever the Federation was willing to throw them.
I also wonder if Julian wasn't taking a doctor's view of the war, and wanted to avoid all the deaths and unnecessary injuries that could be prevented by a surrender. Not a good reason *to* surrender, but if he also wants to "do no harm", it could also color his thinking.
I think this is assuming the Dominion were trying to win. The founders were more than aware of the Federations attempts at benevolence in society. They likely never encountered a formidable, successful society like the Federation in the past. What ended up happening was the dismantling if every threat in the alpha quadrant at all costs. Time and again Federation forces were battered then left alone as the Klingon, Romulan and Cardassian empires were constantly obliterated. The Founders knew that win or lose, they would win. If they took over the alpha quadrant then they expand their empire. If they were defeated, the Federation would absorb the Dominion and simply rebuild. My take on the series was that the Founders were tired of ruling. They had no interest in governing. They did it out of fear and necessity. They were tired of the squabbling of lesser begins. They were sloppy time and again with their forces and constantly let the Federation have another chance. Changelings wanted the Federation to be in power, they succeeded in it.
Though that wasnt quite the case with the Feds. They really didnt care much about ruling the Gamma Quadrant. An although won werent really in a position to either
I still believe that the Dominion would not have killed all of the Federation if Starfleet fought to the end. The Dominion can't rule dead subjects. At worst they would have destroyed as much of Starfleet as possible and any remnants of hope then stopped when the remaining Federation planets surrendered. Also Bashir's plan would have failed miserably. The Dominion has shown that they will destroy entire cities in order to stop a resistance force in its tracks. No Federation resistance would trade an entire city or colony for destroying a Dominion ship or factory. If the Federation lost the war, the best option would be for the surviving Starfleet to leave the Federation and join an interstellar resistance force of other races and remaining fleets. Example: The Niberite Alliance and any other allies they could find. This interstellar force would resemble the Star Wars Rebels.
Weyoun originally planned to genocide Humanity. Till Dukat had other ideas and told him different... seems for all his hate of Sisko, for reasons, one his Saving Grace's is there's hardlines even he wont cross before he switches sides.. probably
Interesting thoughts. I wonder if there is a Rule of Acquisition about waiting for your opponent to do something stupid. It seems to me that many wars are ultimately won or lost based on someone doing something stupid. Nice use of Quark, very amusing!
Bashir's Mutants didn't have all the data. They didn't know about Section 31's Changeling virus and they didn't predict that the Cardassians would switch sides.
@@LoreReloaded i picked up on that. I love that scene. Do you think he will be in the new picard show? That'd be cool they could make a supply trip to DS9, have quark and morn at the bar. Kira shows up as Kai or first minister or an admiral and tells picard that she knows what there doing and would a help him get whatever he needs thanking him for involvement in countless battles. It probably won't happen quite like that but I hope some Ds9 characters appear. Oh and thanks for the reply, I've been a fan for a long time.
If we look past the fact that the trio couldn't possibly have enough or as accurate variables create the kind of prediction they did, it was overall a really bad episode. It could have been great and all they had to change was to make it a prisoner dilemma scenario where the path to total victory would require neither the federation, klingons or Romulans to betray each other (possibly include the Cardassians as well). Make them state that if even one race betrays the rest to save its skin, everyone else fails miserably and play upon the unreliable Romulans. There! You have an easy to understand scenario that works within the series continuity.
You also forget that their big "hope" for surrender hinges on the idea of a successful revolution happening on Earth in the future. What the geniuses don't know is that Weyoun, in a previous episode, says that he fully intends on destroying Earth precisely *because* it would be a hotbed for revolution. So... So much for their big plan.
Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!” Patrick Henry Our founding fathers were Klingon lol
Not to cheapen those hundreds of billions of casualties, but it does get me thinking: Do we ever get a reasonable estimate of the Federation population? The more citizens the Feds have, the likelier they are to take a given number in stride.
If you assume that there are 150 member worlds at least and countless colonies, the population could reach into the trillions if most planets have at least 10 billion people.
@@jadapinkett1656 I’d imagine few colonies if any have populations in the billions. The core worlds all should-notwithstanding Sela’s plan to occupy Vulcan with 2000 troops. 🙄
I think you underestimate the Dominion's capacity for cruelty. Weyoun was willing to entertain the thought of killing Earth's entire population as an example in post war to deter future rebellion because he is thinking extreme long term like the Dominion. They don't think short term.
The Major Oversight on surrender - There are zero guarantees that any terms of surrender would be honored. The entire war effort was to take and hold the wormhole as a natural chokepoint/check to the dominions insane numbers. The moment the Dominion have the numbers on Starfleets side of the wormhole to outmatch every major player, they make the terms. Every. Single. One. Surrender is not only foolish, but suicidal. This is evidenced by the species operating under their rule are all minor players with no major tactical capabilities.
According to memory alpha, the entirety of the Federation only had 985 billion people in 2370. So 90% of the civilians would be targeted? This is absurd on many levels, especially given how close to losing the war they were.
Population of Earth times 128, a little more than 10 times. But if I remember correctly the geniuses changed their evaluation of the outcome of the war a couple of times. The problem with this evaluation by the geniuses is that they understood the strengths and weaknesses of the Federation, but not all of them as it turned out, and they really could not know all the strengths and weaknesses of the Dominion. Calculations are best made with complete and accurate information, and they really did not have this, so judgments were far more likely to be in error. As for Sisko, yeap your point is taken. But I think it is very important to remember he had fought the Borg, the unstoppable Borg, and lost his wife in the process, yet in the end the Borg were stopped. This must have deeply affected him, his desire never again to lose and see loved ones killed or "assimilated". Moreover, we see him no in the show without knowing his true genealogy. This genealogy may have giving him insight into things, without him even knowing it was because he was an offspring of one of the prophets. I look at that episode more as an a philosophical debate, that a meaningful progression of the story. The very idea of Starfleet listening to these individuals in the first place seemed out of place to me.
To me, the biggest problem the Federation faces, it's greatest enemy is not the Dominion, but their own wussification and pacification. They had lost the killer instinct, and paid dearly for it. Imagine if the Dominion had to face the alternate reality humans, and the Terran Empire.
2 oversights. Bashir is a doctor, his opinion is therefore biased. He seeks to preserve life by default. His opinion is also based on what limited information he has access to. I may be wrong, but I do not recall any mention of Starfleet giving him free access to all of their classified war documents/stats.
Well, too bad those genetically superior super scientists didn't factor in The Sisko.
Your move atheists.
@@matthewmccoll185 who is stronger? Gods or the guy who can order gods around (and I guess becomes one)
The irony is how much freedom did The Sisko have? The profits wouldn’t allow for The Sisko to die. So his path was chosen. I think the writing in DS9 biggest mistake was making the Profits a real tangible (as tangible as a non-caporable life form is) thing. Sisko path was written. His free will may be limited. If Sisko didn’t fight the Dominion War he wouldn’t have locked the wraiths away.
@@toddfraser3353 Sisko was given a choice by non linear beings who could see all possibilities. If he continued on to Cardassia, he would know only sorrow. If he had stayed on Bajor he prob could have stopped Dukat and not died.
@@matthewmccoll185 definitely true. If the profits hadn't intervened, Starfleet would have lost.
Starman Dx In addition, the Romulans, Section 31, The Cardassian Resistance, etc. I wish we had V’Ger technology!!
Kirk wouldn’t have surrendered. “I don’t believe in a no-win scenario.”
Janeway wouldn’t have surrendered.
Archer wouldn’t have been allowed to choose.
BUT.
Picard would have negotiated an armistice.
Quark would have bought his peace and eaten it too.
Garak would have stolen and tailored his freedoms back.
Garak would have committed genocide.
@@matrimalviarin5043 And gotten away with it since he's "just a simple tailor"
Sisko showed his pimp hand.
kirk would have F*cked every jem hadar to death. or....just.....talk....like....this....to....bore....them ...to.....death
Janeway would make Weapons of mass destruction. Break every rule and somehow gets a promotion out of it. While punishing others for doing less hard version of the same.
Archer would try and fail. And just go full sisko on it.
Picard would have talked so much that indeed they would have seen it their way.
Quark, would have made a deal. and it blew up in his face. But his friends save him.
Garak.....would use his contacts to make the dominion his slaves.
bask kev
I guess it’s true what the Klingons say:
“If words were water, the humans would drown us all.”
Britain in 1940-1941, after France falls, before USSR and USA are involved, and are all alone and getting smashed by Germany...at that time it was NOT believed they would prevail. Glad Churchill was around and not you
90% of his "counter argument" is based solely on hindsight. Like you said, through much of World War II, there was little hope for the "allied forces" in Europe Asia and the Pacific. The Nazi War machine crashed through much of Russia, captured France, and made significant progress in gaining control over almost the entire Mediterranean region. Without the extraordinary factor of Isolationist America joining the war in 1942 (I know, war was declared in 1941, but weren't ready for actual deployment), it was unclear if Britain would have been able to hold out for another year. You can't use hindsight to judge historical decisions made with modern knowledge of the situation.
But why am I ranting to you? you did nothing to deserve it. You understand what I'm saying better than the maker of this video.
Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.
1940-41 was a rather even fight.
This isn’t exactly correct. Churchill took over just before the Battle of Britain; which is the turning point in the war as far as the U.K. is concerned because that’s when Germany cancelled its invasion plans and decided to just try to starve us out. We knew we could match the Luftwaffe’s bombers with our RAF Spitfires and Hurricanes (which did most of the work, by the way - but the Spitfire has a cooler name, so it gets the glory). All we had to do was hold off the full might of the Luftwaffe when the inevitable battle came and we had a fighting chance of coming out of the war relatively intact. We thought we might not be able to destroy the Nazis once and for all, but we knew Britain was defendable; and that meant we wouldn’t lose like France did. The parallels with the Dominion taking over the Federation are therefore closer than you might think.
GameHammer Classic Gaming Brits fought tough but there’s no way long term they hold out alone. Tough little island but there’s a reason Churchill was begging the USA to join
Sisko should have said, "Dr. Bashir, if I asked you seven years ago to calculate the statistical probabilities that a stable wormhole to the Gamma Quadrant would be discovered near Bajor, that aliens in the wormhole would select me as their emissary, and that half of the Alpha Quadrant would then fight a war with invaders that came through that wormhole, exactly what odds would you have calculated?"
Bashir: "Perhaps one in ten billion, sir."
Sisko: "And yet, it all actually happened. If you can't use your mathematical model to correctly predict our current status from a starting point a mere seven years ago, how can you expect to use that model to correctly predict events five generations from now? Or even seven years from now?"
Bashir: {silence for several seconds} "Point taken, sir. I withdraw my request to submit these findings to Starfleet Command."
[roll credits]
Benjamin Franklin once said: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
“FREEDOM IS THE SOVEREIGN RIGHT OF EVERY AMERICAN."
-Liberty Prime
That thing was way too funny.
Better dead than red
If this guy was alive in the late 1700's we would still be a colony. Shameful.
Population of Earth x100 not x10, buddy
Ok, ok x117 to be exact, pulled out the old calculator and rounded up
Abput to comment likr this found you, gg, sir, you were faster
Yeah I noticed that immediately
XD
While i agree with the above comments, was Lore Reloaded perhaps computing the population of the Earth at that Stardate ? what was the population of the Earth during the Dominion War ?
@@PaulJohn01 I think it was 9 billions, but I may be wrong
@@Soliprem 9B sounds more reasonable although we're already at 6.5 i think, I'm fairly certain it's mentioned in TNG/DS9 or voyager what the pop is. An estimated casualty of 900 Billion is a lot considering i think there were 183 member worlds but obviously some worlds would have larger/smaller pops and some would have higher/lower birth rates so maybe there's no way too tell.
"I do not fight because I can win. I fight because I must win."
the art of war?
Damn that is a good quote.
Harold Neel ah! Thank you
Is that from Yu-gi-oh??
Love it.
I would never accept dominion rule.
There gonna have to pull my phaser rifle from my cold dead hands. And yes I’m a member of the F.P.A (federation phaser association)
Not to mention that the Dominion would have wiped out the entire population of earth if they had won.Weyoon said it so to Du Kat.So yes they could take this so called peace and and put it into their Clone-asses.
So you are Guinan (or at least like her)? Someone who beats trained combat veterans (like Worf) in practice simulations? :D ^^
ps: Would stand with you, despite not being a soldier (never wanted to be, despite having a fascination for weapons and combat - but from a schoolar's POV, not a soldiers!)
Accept for the fact that the Federation is much like our Democrat party today and they would have banned then seized your assault phaser rifles and left you defenseless against Dominion aggression.
Joseph Kugel
I would know a guy who can get me a Cardasian disruptor rifle. The AK 47 of the alpha quadrant
@Armando van Haaren Um, yes it would, finger guns on the other hand not so much.
That moment where Quark is essentially quoted as being right all along.
"Lose some freedoms"..... I wonder which freedom we lose first? ..... it's like feeding that alligator and I wonder which arm or leg is first?
Dominion: i have an army.
Starfleet: We have a Sisko.
The Founders: We are gods you dull creature! And we will not be bul-
SMASH! SMASH! SMASH!
The Sisko: Puny gods.
Thank you for the heart!
There is no such thing as a gracious tyrant.
no tyant stays gracious
Kirk, speaking of Khan, “He was the best of the Tyrants.”
Spock looked at his captain and coworkers in astonishment that they could look at a despot as anything but.
I wonder how Kirk felt about the “best of the tyrants” in the end, actually I don’t have to wonder, I know.
Odo was the key to the war. Even the female changeling admitted that the founders would give up the entire alpha quadrant if they could have Odo return to the great link.
Makes you wonder what really happened to the baby changeling that Odo wound up with while the Bashir changeling was on the station.....
The "geniuses" didn't have anywhere near enough information on the Dominion to make that call.
They were given everything save for section 31 stuff
They were given everything Starfleet had. That doesn't mean their information was accurate or complete. Starfleet might very well have vastly overestimated the Dominion's capability.
@@LoreReloaded I don't believe they had the wormhole alien information. And if they did then that is proof positive that they would have been wrong from the outset.
This episode bothered me right after it aired. This takes place shortly after The Sisko magic's away THOUSANDS of Dominion ships. And these augments are like. "Nope gonna lose!" If anything that variable should have totally changed their estimates. And I would go a step further and say it was the Alpha Quandrants Founder that was being to stubborn to realize surrender to the federation alliance was the only outcome to save lives. (Not that she cared about the lives of solids.) The writing was on the wall the moment the Defiant alone emerged from the wormhole but no one in the Dominion would accept it except maybe Dukat but he was to busy losing his marbles.
Yeah seeing as THE FOUNDERS didnt control the Wormhole the Phophets did.. if the Phophets decide NO MORE DOMINION may pass.... that's it... end of war. Feds win.
@@robertagu5533 whats if q says fuck the dominion.
"fed is my toy, not yours.
here dom deal with this borg cube i throw in your teritorry"
the premise is stupid cause you never have all the informations, m,aybe a time traveller should have told them the future and not some smart people.
at least it would make more sense.
Where there is freedom, and one man ready to stand up for it, there is always hope.
“With men like you on our side, how can we fail.” - Damar
I disagree with the entire premise, which seems to greatly upset Mr. Lore.
Yeah, Sisko is Mad. That's how DS9 is.
Wouldnt ever wantt a Leader like that. Or even a foot soldier like that.
But Bashir isnt much better.
I bet he believes he thinks what he says is true - but i would not listen to him.
Honestly, i would not listen to him if Bashir says this. I would definetly listen if Q says it.
Yes, Going down fighting just for the sake of it is stupid. It's Klingon. It's Sisko. Not logical or anything.
BUT Bashir and his Merry Gang of Weirdos are not Gods. At all.
One thing to consider, what sort of deal could the Federation get from the Dominion?
Becoming a slave race that gets genetically modified at a whim to revere the Founders or as punishment, or partners like the Breen were…would be.
The Federation had desirable traits amongst some members that would have greatly enriched the Dominion if thier biological and technological distinctiveness had been added… . ..
Humans are adaptable and innovative, although that would also make them difficult to control.
Vulcans are very useful, both physically and especially mentally, and they would be less likely to stir up trouble.
Betazoids are possibly the single most desirable Federation species the Founders would want to co-op. Their telepathy is a game changer, but it doesn't work on Changelings (although it can detect a Changeling by the lack of telepathic contact… something Starfleet should've exploited, and just imagine getting one in range of Wayoun!!).
Which reminds me, could you do a overview of the plot of the Battle of Betazed, what was that forbidden power - and how would Betazoids change afterwards, in attitude and politics. Militant Betazoids that are grim and pragmatic are a scary concept. Stick in cosmetic alteration of eyes to look human and you have a very effective operative or whatever.
The point of view "surrender to save your lives, you don't accomplish anything by throwing them away" is not only short-sighted, but proven wrong in multiple instances of the show *starting from the first episode and running through all the way to the final episode*.
The reason I say it's short-sighted is that this isn't a binary existence. There isn't just the Dominion and the Federation. There's hundreds of thousands of space-faring civilizations in Trek, and I'm sure none of them want to be dominated by the Dominion. This is going to be a hard pill to swallow, but it's very easy to say that you'd like to spare your own life by giving into the demands of tyrants. But you don't just fight back for your own sake, or the sake of your freedoms. For every person that must come after you, because that growing force will not just stop with conquering you.
Every time you fight, every time you push them back, every delay that you cause, is giving every other civilization a chance to advance and grow. And if that sacrifice had bought *your* civilization a few centuries to build up your military, you'd be quite thankful for that fighting chance that other people laid down their lives for.
Conversely, if you roll over and abide, if your people don't fight and even passively contribute to the tyrant, that tyrant grows fantastically in power and speed. We aren't told about the early days of the Dominion, but if even half of their subordinates fought to the bitter end instead of rolling over, it's entirely possible that the Dominion would never have grown to be such a threat in the first place.
This is even demonstrated throughout the show, as I've said. The show *starts* with the Bajorans, having endured their own holocaust, occupation, and pitched terrorism battles against a galactic empire, throwing their oppressors off their home planet. Despite never having the odds to win, they did. The show *ends* with the Cardassian freedom fighters, having their entire terror cell network obliterated, but still manage to rise up against the odds and throw *their* oppressors off their home planet.
Yet every moment of that could have been considered by the same logic "Surrender to save your lives, as many lives as possible. Surrender your freedoms and just do some minimal bootlicking to appease these people, to spare your lives". Tyrants *count* on you adopting that logic. They are empowered by it. And they are, subsequently, defeated by rejecting it.
Julian's also assuming the Federation is a monolith...the Federation very would could've broken up if there wasn't 100% agreement from 150 member world to surrender, and while the Dominion might've had a slightly easier time with a "dissolved" UFP, it may well could've been slowed and then gotten stomped on.
@@Corbomite_Meatballs which is finally what happened. An with so many members half or most wouldnt have accepted goin down so easily.
"Conversely, if you roll over and abide, if your people don't fight and even passively contribute to the tyrant, that tyrant grows fantastically in power and speed."
Well said!
Actually by that time The Great Link had been infected. It was just a matter of time before they no longer existed
but the question is, would the Vorta have covered it up and maintained 'the order of things', at least until Laas and the other missing changelings take their place ? Or would Odo have accepted power given that the other xenophobic changelings were wiped out ?
Jose Belmar Section 51 should have neutralized Bashir. By either imprisoning him or murdering him. They made a huge mistake by not doing so. If I were the chief medical officer I’d have let Odo die. Any of the Founders left alive could be eliminated one way or another
@@josebelmar5951 AH but you point has one problem since odo was infected when they found laas then hes infected too and he loves to shapechange too much so hes toast
Wow. I hadn't thought of that. Good point. They were all doomed.
@@danielwilliams6082 Section 31. If you were chief medical officer of DS9 and you had the chance to save your friend you would do it. Or if you wouldn't and people found out that you didn't well there goes you practicing medicine in the federation. There goes your commission you'd be stripped of and possible spending time in a labor prison.
I would rather die fighting I would rather die a free man
I started crying from laughter when you started paraphrasing Quark xD
Only one to point it out so far
Might be because I used the exact quote to win a debate once. xD
Donnie Wilber
It perfectly sums up the Cold War.
@@LoreReloaded you know the whole situation has gone to hell for the federation when we start quoting the Ferengi bartender. Basically the bartender should have been station commander.
@@matthew8153 I might need you to expand on that thought a bit. I read it as cold war = peace at a bargain price.
Biggest problem with the analysis given by Bashir & Co. is that they didn't have all of the variables known to them when making their recommendations.
Things like the Section 31 genocide plot and "Divine Intervention" potential of the "Prophets". Hell, even other unknown future events such as Insaneway returning from the Delta Quadrant a few years later with a Borg tech upgraded starship would have likely altered their long term projections.
I'm fairly certain that if they had factored in those variables, then their recommendation would have been considerably different.
Indeed. The end of the TNG era saw the Feds defeat or suborn all competitors and expand their capabilities at a whiplash-inducing rate. And given how big the Fed had become by the end, and the fact that it had a presence in all four quadrants, it's pretty near impossible to imagine any heretofore unknown competitors lurking in the shadows. If they were big enough to stand up to the new superpower, they'd be too big to have gone unnoticed in the suddenly much smaller galaxy.
That's why I'm so desperately hoping that PIC shows the Feds as being well on their way to a Class III hegemony, like the Foundation or the Galactic Republic. Picard, Riker, and the other old-timers are nervous because the captains of the new mile-long starships that each single-handedly outgun a cube have never had to fight for their lives or dealt with an alien culture from a position of weakness, and can't get entirely comfortable with how cocksure the new generation has become, even though they're glad to have created this historic opportunity.
@@aperson22222 You are a real fan. However, I have the lowest of expectations for Picard. I'm hoping that they do find a way to put in some depth and thought provoking stuff to go with the sure to be high concept braga like plot.
"The equation is very easy here." Yes but they didn't have all the variables.
I find this kind of imperfect jugement and decision on the part of the characters, one of the greates strencht of DS9, everybody is imperfect and comfronted to circumstances will make the decision they think is the correct one or fail to do so also knowingly.. and that's reality, there's never a perfectly cleart path before us and we try or don't try to navigate it!
Love your analysis of this dilema!
Don’t forget the conversation between Dukat and Weyoun, where Weyoun wanted to eradicate the entire population of Earth to stop rebellion before it starts. Surrendering to the Dominion means a lot of culling, no matter how you look at it. At least they have a fighting chance - as the doctor calculates a 30 something percent chance they can win later on, which Garak calls insulting.
When you fight to remain free then no amount of casualties is too high.
Acceptable casualties. I’m a veteran my choice will be to always fight.
But as I said in my other comment there is a conversation between Wayon and Gil Dukot where Wayon specifically says they would wipe out Earth to prevent a rebellion from starting there. Because they predicted that too.
Siskos overall Goal wasnt Peace, it was Peace under Federations Therms a "Pax Federatio" if you will
May I ask which freedoms are you willing to give up for "peace"?
When you dont strawman me..ill be happy to
@@LoreReloaded How am I strawmaning you? We are talking about a fictional world/universe. It is not real. Now i see you may have taken it as a real world question...but no I am asking what freedoms should be given up for Peace in the star trek universe.
@@LoreReloaded I'm not sur it's strawman-ing, what make you thinks the children of the childre of the children of the children of people of the federation will rise against the Dominion.
After all if they rise they risk everything right ? Why risking everything when you could bend the knee? So they will push the burdden to their children, like their parents do to them , maybe ?
Thanks for the vid.
This is a critical question to answer if one is contemplating a surrender with terms.
@@LoreReloaded he just asked you a question genius
What you forget is that every one told churchill to surrender to Hitler for the reasons you gave if we give up 1000s of people will live but "what is a life under an iron fist." This is the same man who didn't cut public founding of art as the country was at war and be bombed day by day because "what are we fighting for if we take away the people's culture and pride" war is not about numbers
"Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines."
"It may be better to be a live jackal than a dead lion, but it is better still to be a live lion. And usually easier."
Last stand???? Spartans prepare for glory!!!!! We are outnumbered 100 to 1 but by god lets make them fight and die for there ultimate victory!!!
Founders : All we require you to do is to kneel. Sisko : Now that is going to be a problem
Ironically, if they hadn't been betrayed theyd actually won that one. Especially since the Athenians were kicking the Persian asses at sea too. If a good sized Reinforcement Greek army had showed up... then even coming over that flanking pass wouldnt have mattered. The Persians had nothing heavy enough on the mountains to hold it
Sisko didn't fight DESPITE 900 billion potential deaths, he fought to try to prevent those deaths
It's been a minute since I watched the episode, did they say the Federation couldn't win or the Fed/Klingon/Romulan alliance can't win?
When you come up against a stronger opponent, get stronger allies.
The biggest flaw in the calculations of the Genetically enhanced group was they solely looked at the current loss ratio. Which was very early in the war. It was made very clear that as new ships came online the Federation loss ratio got exponentially better. Partly due to better ships and it was noted that wartime built Dominion ships had weak points and they were haphazardly bolted together.
By the second year of war The Dominion was loosing a war of attrition.
The irony of this is that the group who recommended the surrender, at the price of the loss of freedom, already had their freedom taken away. That is the elephant in the room in this situation.
I've always took the moral lesson from this episode as being that sometimes numbers don't tell the full truth when humans (or in this case sentient beings) are involved, essentially everything's going to plan until some hot shot named Alexander shows up and screws with everything
The way Lore talks about peace with the dominion, I am reminded of the 76th rule of acquisition:
"Every once in a while, declare peace. It confuses the hell out of your enemies."
During Dunkirk this was the same conversation, rather die fighting than live on your knees
For those who thought "but the federation won in the end", there are three major factors the enhances DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT when they made their predictions: 1) The changeling plague had not yet emerged as a factor. 2) the Cardassians were still firmly on the dominion side and had not started resisting, 3) The federation tricking the Romulans to join the war was probably considered as something the federation wouldn't do and was not included in the calculations. Increasing one side by 1/3, shifting another to the other side by an unknown amount, and throwing in mental and physical deterioration by the leadership of one side plus species extinction anxiety/desperation very much changes the numbers.
yet more reason not to accept their model as reality. If they cannot accurately predict a mere few years into the future accurately, how could they possible predict 5 generations in the future accurately?
That’s… the WHOLE BLOODY POINT THAT EVERYONE IS SAYING!!!! SURRENDERING WAS A HORRIBLE IDEA, and if they had done it, any alternative universe traveller finding the timeline where they didn’t would have ripped them limb from limb for being the men and women that destroyed the human race.
To this day I wonder why Starfleet didn't look to history and implement a WW2 style mobilization effort as soon as the war started. Imagine the Starfleet and the Klingons darkening the skies of Mars and Quo'nos with so many docking bays that by the end of the war the Federation is pumping out ten new ships a day, The Dominion is like "WHERE DID THEY GET ALL THESE SHIPS!?!" and that at the end could've led into a new show with commentary on our post WW2 society and all the triumphs, trials, and tribulations that it brings.
The price of peace is at an all-time low.... like like like
Except that wasn't the price of peace! IT was the price of what "might" be a lasting peace. Compare the Munich agreement in 1938. At the time, seemed like a "low" price of peace. History proved otherwise. And I think Sisko saw things were moving in the same direction.
If I remember correctly, they weren't in access of classified information.
Futhemore, I believe the federation genocidal biological preemptive atack was never put on the table for them.
The genius thinkers didn't take into account the Prophet of the worm hole. Sisco is more then just human. He is also the Prophet . This is something giving Sisco almost Q like plot twist ability with anything concerning the worm hole. The Dominion has to access the that wormhole.
Just have to add ... Bashir is a doctor after all. Such projections of so many deaths are bound to set off his "Save as many as possible" mentality.
Living as slaves under the Dominion is NOT an option!!
doinion is going to die.
rule of dominion would be short.
dont know which would make more sense
Snatching defeat from the mouth of victory. One who trades freedom for safety deserves neither.
Imagine what would've happened if the Federation had done something crazier earlier, like respected the borders of the Dominion. Who knows what could've happened? I mean imagine they could have had diplomats discuss the situation and shown the founders not all solids are hostile.
You and lore believe Dominion propaganda. The alpha quadrant became the enemy as soon as their existence was known to the Dominion. Violating their borders like they own the entire gamma quadrant is just a convenient excuse.
The war with the dominion would have happened regardless. The only mistake Federation made was been naive, they should have worked with Klingons and Romulans earlier to either destroy the wormhole, mine it immediately after the first wave of dominion ships, or police the wormhole. Setup 5 stations in the gamma quadrant and another 5 in Alpha quadrant. Move ds9 to Bajor orbit. Militarize the wormhole and screen every passengers that comes and go through it. Then park like 30 ships in the gamma/alpha quadrant for defense.
You make a good point. Sisko's position is- based on its stated principles- dangerously irresponsible; that he wouldn't change even IF the 9 billion deaths were a certainty.
What I'd rather have seen Bashir's opponents argue- what I'd argue- is the last two decades of Federation history. The Q. the Borg. The wormhole. Recent history is replete with external or unknown forces that would render any future predictions made before them moot, because they radically altered the course of the future via something that was unknown at the time. (And it's probably Section 31's changeling virus that did the same to the genetically-engineered calculations here).
There is always the possibility of an external factor which cannot be calculated for in statistical probability prognostication. These future predictions couldn't be relied on because they only factored in what was known; and the universe is full of the unknown.
Choosing to fight on in the belief that there is always a chance those calculations could be wrong (especially with the recent proof of Prophet intervention regarding the Dominion fleet as an excellent indicator that such things are not mere wishful thinking, but really DO influence the course of events), I could understand and even root for.
Simply saying 'it doesn't matter if it's true, I'd fight and die either way'... that's a problem.
I would die well personally I was thinking this situation as a Klingon would say today is a good day to die but the day is not yet done.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy”
There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.”
“who wishes to fight must first count the cost”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
The super smart people specifically said the rebellion would start at earth in 5 generations.
The Dominion said the first thing they're going to do is eliminate earths population because that's the greatest risk of rebellion.
So ya... way to go super smart people
Yep...which is why surrender isn't an option.
If the analysis was based on certain assumptions it would be interesting to try and find out what those assumptions were.
The smart move in the situation would be to identify the key assumptions which result in the unfavorable outcome and focus on changing them to make a more favorable situation
This may be a motivation for the events of "in the pale moonlight" if I remember the timeline right
I think I know what a Ferengi might say to that “It’s that kind of panic buying that causes so many economic crashs.”
If I don't have my Freedom then I am already dead.
I cannot think that the Dominion wouldn’t just exterminate the human race after all the trouble we gave them. Had the federation negotiated, they’d likely just have occupied the federation.
The irony about the Super Geniuses is that in the end, they were wrong. Just like super Geniuses today.
I agree with Sisko it’s better to go down fighting. Never surrender. Remember the Dominion said they were gonna wipe out all life on Earth to prevent the rebellion.
Even thought the Federation did not take there suggestions they should have keep on the enhanced humans on as advisors as they proved far more able to read and predict the Dominion better than any Federation officers. Just imagine if Star fleet had any intelligence in fleet deployments defense plans and attack plans
Imagine if during the Dominion War (or a similar scenario), a new much greater (common) enemy emerged and both sides had no choice but to temporarily surrender to this new enemy... ultimately leading to a Federation/ Dominion Alliance ..?
It happened in STO, with the Hur'q.
So basically you wanted to see evil prevail?
LOVE LOVE THE FERENGI ANGLE! THANK YOU. YOU MADE MY LOBES TINGLE :)
It's been a long time since I saw DS9; did Bashir ask the theorists to re-run their numbers under the assumption that the Federation war effort _wasn't_ being run by blithering idiots? I suspect that might have changed their conclusions somewhat.
Well considering statistics and speculation become less reliable as time goes on, to the point where 'seven generations from now' is worthless, I cannot blame him.
Also, suffer not the Xenos to live and all...
. Dying for nothing! you're dying for your right to exist as a free person. nothing is more important.
The follow up question that wasn't asked "what does the federation need to do to win?"
LIVE FREE OR DIE. Sisko / O'Brien 2020!
Coming from a part of the US that has a more neutral opinion of the various wars fought, I must say this:
Sometimes, it is better to run, saving one’s self and one’s culture, than to stay and be destroyed by those who claim you as an enemy.
Promises are paper thin in politics, and only someone with the strength to enforce a contract will find it kept.
What part of the USA are you from? I need to know the cowardly part so that I never visit
John Lovelace
Replace the word cowardly with “persecuted and denied basic constitutional rights” and you’ll know exactly where. We’d love to meet you, but if you really have the capacity for hate... well, I feel sorry for you.
@@SchneeflockeMonsoon ah yes playing the victim card. No one who lives in the USA, or Western Europe (and I throw in the entire Anglo-Sphere) is a victim when you compare your situation to everyone else in the world and 99% of people who have lived on planet Earth throughout history.
Perfect? Certainly not. Victim, absolutely not.
John Lovelace
All is situational. Regardless, I very much pity you.
@@SchneeflockeMonsoon All is relative, and even those who live in abject poverty in the USA and Western Europe enjoy a higher standard living than the vast majority of humans who have ever lived on this planet.
I pity you, a sad thing for a man to live as a coward.
Starfleet and the klingons were guaranteed to lose the peace so why would they make a deal? Any type of treaty would just put them in a cold war situation giving the dominion time to rebuild and isolate the federation from the rest of the quadrant politically
The problem with the augmented humans argument is, we all saw the end of the Dominion war and know that the Dominion lost.
Which kinda makes Bashir's brethren traitors despite bein designed geniuses since they jumped to conclusions and it NEVER occurred to them they could be wrong and that some scenario of what could happen DID in fact happen.. basically without them at all
@@robertagu5533 they are not traitors because they were just wrong
@@harrypothead42024 no but they DID cross the line into that territory late in the episode. When they attempted to contact the Dominion.. which WOULD be in universe Treason had they succeeded
That bit about the faction rising up is the part that a lot of the "dont trade liberty for safety" quoters seem to forget. Bashir isn't saying just give up and hope the new overlords are kind. Part of the plan is to live to fight another day. It isn't pretty and it isn't ideal but if the choice is regaining freedom later or extinction now, its an easy choice.
One of the biggest issues is that Bashir said the revolt would start on earth. But in another episode the founders said that the first thing they would do is wipe out the inhabitants of the earth. As a result the Bashirs prediction was wrong and it’s a dam good thing that no one relied on it because he didn’t have that piece of information that changes everything. That’s the problem when you make data based predictions they’re only accurate if you actually have all the data in this case they did not.
Insaneway would never allow that.
She isn't there during the war right? Otherwise the Federation would have busted out the Armor and Transphasic-Torpedos (and whatever other technology Voyager brought back, including whatever was copied from Admiral Janeway's shuttle (I think they did a database-dump to Voyager's computer, despite most of the tech being incompatible with Voyager's systems!)) and made beating the Dominion a cake-walk (taking pot-shots at even the mightiest Dominion ships and one-shotting them like they did Borg-Cubes!)
Hell, quantum-slipstream alone (or coaxial-warp!) would be a game-changer with ships being able to be rapidly re-deployed (defensively, but also for quick offenses to create a superior-numbers situation and quickly retreat once Dominion reinforcements arrive...hell a sowing chaos campaign (especially if they also start using cloaking tech!) would beat the dominion, too with superior FTL-Drives!)
As they say, history is written by the victors. In this case, the Federation won and the geniuses were wrong.
Honestly, the best tactical move would have been to close the wormhole. The Dominion was a few decades away from being able to get to the Alpha and Beta quadrants without it. I know they tried or....something....but seriously.
The problem had had with Quark in that episode is that niether the Federation, nor the Cardassians were willing to give the Maquis what they were fighting for. The only way for there to be peace was for them to either submit or die. The Federation and the Cardassians would get what they want, but not the Maquis they got nothing or whatever the Federation was willing to throw them.
At 5:30 Julian 's pride is off the charts....
Exactly how the Supers lost the Eugenics Wars... By underestimating the norms ;)
I also wonder if Julian wasn't taking a doctor's view of the war, and wanted to avoid all the deaths and unnecessary injuries that could be prevented by a surrender. Not a good reason *to* surrender, but if he also wants to "do no harm", it could also color his thinking.
No, it's better to live on your feet than to die on your knees. It just makes more sense.
The eggheads were wrong too.
In matters of war and empire building the eggheads are always wrong.
I think this is assuming the Dominion were trying to win. The founders were more than aware of the Federations attempts at benevolence in society. They likely never encountered a formidable, successful society like the Federation in the past.
What ended up happening was the dismantling if every threat in the alpha quadrant at all costs. Time and again Federation forces were battered then left alone as the Klingon, Romulan and Cardassian empires were constantly obliterated.
The Founders knew that win or lose, they would win. If they took over the alpha quadrant then they expand their empire. If they were defeated, the Federation would absorb the Dominion and simply rebuild.
My take on the series was that the Founders were tired of ruling. They had no interest in governing. They did it out of fear and necessity. They were tired of the squabbling of lesser begins. They were sloppy time and again with their forces and constantly let the Federation have another chance.
Changelings wanted the Federation to be in power, they succeeded in it.
Though that wasnt quite the case with the Feds. They really didnt care much about ruling the Gamma Quadrant. An although won werent really in a position to either
I still believe that the Dominion would not have killed all of the Federation if Starfleet fought to the end. The Dominion can't rule dead subjects. At worst they would have destroyed as much of Starfleet as possible and any remnants of hope then stopped when the remaining Federation planets surrendered.
Also Bashir's plan would have failed miserably. The Dominion has shown that they will destroy entire cities in order to stop a resistance force in its tracks. No Federation resistance would trade an entire city or colony for destroying a Dominion ship or factory.
If the Federation lost the war, the best option would be for the surviving Starfleet to leave the Federation and join an interstellar resistance force of other races and remaining fleets. Example: The Niberite Alliance and any other allies they could find. This interstellar force would resemble the Star Wars Rebels.
Weyoun originally planned to genocide Humanity. Till Dukat had other ideas and told him different... seems for all his hate of Sisko, for reasons, one his Saving Grace's is there's hardlines even he wont cross before he switches sides.. probably
Interesting thoughts. I wonder if there is a Rule of Acquisition about waiting for your opponent to do something stupid. It seems to me that many wars are ultimately won or lost based on someone doing something stupid. Nice use of Quark, very amusing!
If 900 billion died in the war that's the equivalent of 112.5 Earth's (currently)
Bashir's Mutants didn't have all the data. They didn't know about Section 31's Changeling virus and they didn't predict that the Cardassians would switch sides.
Lol, that speech at the end. I remember quark saying something like that. Nice nod to that scene lol
I changed very little. Almost a line by line reading
@@LoreReloaded i picked up on that. I love that scene. Do you think he will be in the new picard show? That'd be cool they could make a supply trip to DS9, have quark and morn at the bar. Kira shows up as Kai or first minister or an admiral and tells picard that she knows what there doing and would a help him get whatever he needs thanking him for involvement in countless battles. It probably won't happen quite like that but I hope some Ds9 characters appear. Oh and thanks for the reply, I've been a fan for a long time.
But the Federation won. The think tank was wrong. There were factors that they couldnt calculate.
Clearly those UNICORNS were pulling the strings behind everything.
If we look past the fact that the trio couldn't possibly have enough or as accurate variables create the kind of prediction they did, it was overall a really bad episode.
It could have been great and all they had to change was to make it a prisoner dilemma scenario where the path to total victory would require neither the federation, klingons or Romulans to betray each other (possibly include the Cardassians as well). Make them state that if even one race betrays the rest to save its skin, everyone else fails miserably and play upon the unreliable Romulans.
There! You have an easy to understand scenario that works within the series continuity.
You also forget that their big "hope" for surrender hinges on the idea of a successful revolution happening on Earth in the future. What the geniuses don't know is that Weyoun, in a previous episode, says that he fully intends on destroying Earth precisely *because* it would be a hotbed for revolution. So... So much for their big plan.
Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!”
Patrick Henry
Our founding fathers were Klingon lol
Not to cheapen those hundreds of billions of casualties, but it does get me thinking: Do we ever get a reasonable estimate of the Federation population? The more citizens the Feds have, the likelier they are to take a given number in stride.
If you assume that there are 150 member worlds at least and countless colonies, the population could reach into the trillions if most planets have at least 10 billion people.
@@jadapinkett1656 I’d imagine few colonies if any have populations in the billions. The core worlds all should-notwithstanding Sela’s plan to occupy Vulcan with 2000 troops. 🙄
I think you underestimate the Dominion's capacity for cruelty. Weyoun was willing to entertain the thought of killing Earth's entire population as an example in post war to deter future rebellion because he is thinking extreme long term like the Dominion. They don't think short term.
The Major Oversight on surrender - There are zero guarantees that any terms of surrender would be honored. The entire war effort was to take and hold the wormhole as a natural chokepoint/check to the dominions insane numbers. The moment the Dominion have the numbers on Starfleets side of the wormhole to outmatch every major player, they make the terms. Every. Single. One. Surrender is not only foolish, but suicidal. This is evidenced by the species operating under their rule are all minor players with no major tactical capabilities.
yeah i think there would be some future version of katyn forest awaiting all alpha quadrant leaders.
According to memory alpha, the entirety of the Federation only had 985 billion people in 2370. So 90% of the civilians would be targeted? This is absurd on many levels, especially given how close to losing the war they were.
And then Weyoun would've had Earth sterilized regardless.
Population of Earth times 128, a little more than 10 times. But if I remember correctly the geniuses changed their evaluation of the outcome of the war a couple of times. The problem with this evaluation by the geniuses is that they understood the strengths and weaknesses of the Federation, but not all of them as it turned out, and they really could not know all the strengths and weaknesses of the Dominion. Calculations are best made with complete and accurate information, and they really did not have this, so judgments were far more likely to be in error. As for Sisko, yeap your point is taken. But I think it is very important to remember he had fought the Borg, the unstoppable Borg, and lost his wife in the process, yet in the end the Borg were stopped. This must have deeply affected him, his desire never again to lose and see loved ones killed or "assimilated". Moreover, we see him no in the show without knowing his true genealogy. This genealogy may have giving him insight into things, without him even knowing it was because he was an offspring of one of the prophets.
I look at that episode more as an a philosophical debate, that a meaningful progression of the story. The very idea of Starfleet listening to these individuals in the first place seemed out of place to me.
To me, the biggest problem the Federation faces, it's greatest enemy is not the Dominion, but their own wussification and pacification. They had lost the killer instinct, and paid dearly for it.
Imagine if the Dominion had to face the alternate reality humans, and the Terran Empire.
2 oversights. Bashir is a doctor, his opinion is therefore biased. He seeks to preserve life by default. His opinion is also based on what limited information he has access to. I may be wrong, but I do not recall any mention of Starfleet giving him free access to all of their classified war documents/stats.
It was in dialogue. They gave everything including ship deployments, battle plans, etc.