Also, you should do a video about how surprising it is that the evolution of basketball brought about a contested midrange shot before it evolved to the wide open three point shot. It’s amazing to me that basketball players would evolve to making Michael Jordan type mid range shots before it evolved to everyone on the team being able to shoot wide open three-point shots. Where do we go from here?
honestly i've seen guys in the 80s do that. even jerry west a lot of the time when he caught and shot, he didn'dt dip the ball if the pass was high enough. it's just that guys are practicing the same shots, but further. you see a simiar thing with big guys catching it in the paint and never lowering the ball.
Depending on your closeout then they'll attack the rim. As Hawks fans, we leave our feet where the shooter just reloads for threeIdid rather them put the ball on the floor and just shoot it.
@@TornaitSuperBird Insofar as coaches and statisticians have realized that 3>2 and that the only shot where efficiency is greater than from behind the arc, is within 3ft of the basket, yes.
@tim.noonan So thats just it then? Everyone becomes a guard, every team runs a five out set and screen and roll? Teams eventually take 60 threes a game with nothing but layups and FTs otherwise? Cause that's DEFINITELY gonna fix the cratering ratings.
Most logical basketball analysis ive seen on youtube. Too many people add biases and emotion to their analysis or just straight up false correlation. But this guy makes clear sense with his examples and conclusions.
and is wrong, bums hear articulation for the first time and glaze up; you can't nerd analysis your way to a conclusion when the sport is driven by superstar individuals. this is all reactionary retrofitting bs, cherry picked analysis to suit a narrative from an amateur
@@pookiepats It's actually not complicated. Basically, his point revolves around the fact that how much a shot is worth is based on the probability it will go in and the number of points you get from that shot. The probability of going in is itself affected by player skill and the type of defensive sets being played. So, on one hand, the three-point shot is worth more mathematically and on the other, the type of defense being deployed--both of these caused the game to evolve in a manner that prioritized three pointers. And doing so changed employed defensive sets, freed up lanes, making the probability of two pointers being made go up too. As defenses evolve to adjust to this, what is a strategically optimal number of threes to take will change too. Including possibly decreasing.
For anyone that may confused about the shooting dip, it's used to build power and rhythm on your shot. Not dipping results in a large decrease in power coming from your legs and core, so you have to make up for it with wrist power, which is harder to control. It's sort of like the difference between winding up for a punch and doing a Bruce Lee style 1 inch punch.
as a pickup basketball player for 30 yrs, I contest this take. I've actually adapted to no-dip 3's precisely because I can get more power from them as my body ages and my knees and ankles are becoming basically useless for delivering power. The no-dip 3 is easy and fast and actually gives me more range than if I dip and push off with 46 yr old knees. I'm pretty sure dipping and turning your jumper into a wind-up is entirely psychological in its benefits. Physically it's pointless extra motion, but mentally it's nice for "rhythm shots" which - in an environment devoid of defensive pressure - might result in higher percentage shooting. Unfortunately in games, defensive pressure is more likely than not.
@@JakeStineI get what you're saying but it's obviously implied that this is in a competitive setting where high level defense is being played. You did include defense in the end but pick up is not near even HS bball level defense. It makes the point moot. Shot quickness while maintaining a replicable shot form through defense and fatigue is why using your lower body is important for shooting. Even if you don't fully dip down, you still activate your lower body to create a base prior to receiving the ball.
@@JakeStinethey’ve done quite a lot of research into shooting mechanics, the dip builds kinetic energy and rhythm. No top tier shooter has no dip in their regular shot
The pickup I play is pretty much defense first and defense all the time. And lots of fouling and grabbing and swiping because guys aren't good at calling their own fouls. The league games I've played by comparison are much easier to find offensive rhythms because there's refs to keep things honest and more talent on the offensive end too, and less packed with guys who are just looking for an athletic day out and are happy to run the court and play pressure D as part of their workout. But I get that experience won't match everyone's.
@@JakeStineWhere you’re mistaken is that shooting optimally mechanics wise doesn’t involve a “wind up”. You dip, your knees bend at the bottom of your dip, then you shoot the ball in a straight one motion upwards as you jump and your knees straighten. Most of the best shooters of all time are one motion shooters (outside of exceptions like Larry Bird) and some players shoot a one motion from 3, and a two motion from the mid-range due to not needing as much power, Devin Booker for example. BBALLBREAKDOWN has tons of videos on proper shooting mechanics, rhythm, alignment, etc on his channel. Some of his analysis of the game is frustrating at times, but he really does know a lot about how shooting mechanics have evolved and what is considered “optimal” today.
@@blakeliu3713 and he still has his own audience which is why he's on tv. it's almost like, when you turn on tv, there is a huge variety of different personalities and you can choose to listen to who you want to
As Ben points out in the video the players are shooting the best shot available. That's what they always will do. If you want them to shoot fewer threes you either make better shots available (which would make the game a lay-up line) or you have to make good shots harder to come by. The single easiest thing to do is allow the defense to play defense and officiate the offense fairly. Call moving screens, blatant carries, travels, offensive fouls. That change alone makes it harder to get an open look and will lead to longer, more varied possessions. It's not just 3 > 2, it's that it's so easy to get a 3.
@TornaitSuperBird ...what? I was talking about making bases bigger, banning the shift, and the pitch clock, ya know the stuff they changed that led to the World Series numbers this year blowing the NBA Finals out of the water? The Venditte rule was made because one dude in the entire 150 year history of the MLB was a ambidextrous pitcher, it had no bearing on any ratings or playstyle. Are you okay? Can you read?
This channel is a big part of what made me fall in love with basketball, I wish more people would appreciate how insanely skilled the nba is right now instead of talking about how 3 pointers and foul baiting are ruining the game
But if the battle is boring to watch who cares? Who's gonna pay these guys millions of dollars to fight a BORING WAR? Baseball figured this out before it was too late. Will basketball? Come give me heart, old buddy Ben.
@@taptiotrevizo9415 My point is that I don't need people explaining to me why the game is great and why this is the natural evolution of such and such. I don't need to be gaslit by JJ Redick into appreciating what I'm watching. I can watch Wemby and Joker and be satiated. The other stuff around the main talent is what is BORING. I know basketball. I know why three is greater than two. Why Brook Lopez shooting a 40% three pointer is better than Bill Carwright shooting a 15 foot brick. The POINT is watching Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant try to wiggle their way out of a cage like houdini is FAR more entertaining than "OPE, the STAR PLAYER's first option isn't there, so let's kick it out to an open shooter" that I can watch shoot the same shot 2 miles away at the park all day. An open three point shot is not a challenging shot. Nor an entertaining one. A long open three point shot is barely more challenging than a shot 10 feet closer quite honestly, you wanna test that theory I'll meet you at the park. In the end it's BORING TO WATCH unless you can dig in to League pass to find the Wemby and the Jokic and such and maybe Memphis running a halfway interesting offense, but to be lectured constantly that we just don't APPRECIATE the game is hogwash and tiring. Ben is great at these videos and understands basketball on a level I never will. His video on the evolution of the rules of the game is in invaluable resource for any basketball fan and detailed in a way exactly and then better than I could have imagined. But I've been watching for 30+ years and I trust THIS Ben's eyes over anyones. And when mine begin to become disinterested then this league has a problem on its hands.
Something I've noticed is that leaguewide 3pt% has stayed relatively stagnant during the 3 point revolution, but leaguewide 2pt% has slowly crept up in the same time period. And this is consistent with the trends we've seen of trading in bad 2s for good 3s and non-shooters learning to shoot. This has resulted in, for the last 3 or so seasons, near-perfect equilibrium on points per shot from 3s and 2s. My theory is that 3s will continue increasing until 3pt% starts to drop leaguewide and the points per shot on 3s goes down, at which point the balance between 2s and 3s will settle into that same equilibrium point. The average shot will pretty much always be worth the same leaguewide, but the players' skill could no longer maintain taking any more 3s without sacrificing shot quality. Basically it seems that you can train a professional athlete to shoot about 36% on in-game 3 pointers.
the league is at that point right now... if we look at 3% in last 25 years it went from 35.3% in 2000 to 35.9% in 2025. numbers of 3s per game did increase from 13.7 to 37.5 which increased the efg% from 47.8% in 2000 to 54.1% in 2025. so 3%, 2% and efg% are at equilibrium and youre even starting to see teams like celtics hurting their efg% (56.3%) by taking too many 3s (50.6 3s at 36.8%) instead of 2s (40.8 2s at 57.7%). before you would see individual players hurt their efg% by shooting too many 3s, but not entire teams.
@ i agree wholeheartedly that the celtics are canary in the coal mine so to speak, but I think it’ll take a year or two of multiple (or even most) teams hurting their efg% before the backlash comes and 3s truly level out. Hopefully the smart ones will do it sooner than that, but I think we’re a couple years out from teams more or leas universally adopting whatever the equilibrium 3/2 ratio is for their personnel.
I can't help but think that prediction is gonna be broken by players eventually getting much better at shooting 3s then they are even now. Maybe nothing absurd like a +50% average, but something towards that
That's fully expected. They're becoming better shooters, but because they're shooting threes on higher volume, their %s don't rise. If they'd been shooting this much from three historically, the 3P% would have been pretty low.
The 3 most important priorities for a sound NBA defense are 1) protecting the paint- a poorly/non contested shot within 5 feet of the basket will always be the most efficient shot in basketball, 2) securing the defensive rebound, and 3) not sending the opponent to the FT line. Unless a roster has multiple elite 1-on-1 defenders, selling out to either shut off the 3 or force a lot of turnovers will cause a team to slide to the bottom in at least 1 of those 3 key defensive priorities. Case in point would be Pacers last season who allowed the fewest 3s in the league per game, yet had a garbage team defense because they were 29th in points allowed in the paint. Coaching staffs understand this and hence, will continue concede clean looks from 3 to non-elite shooters. Players are just too offensively skilled now for defenses to be able to take everything away
i've always felt it was crazy that a guy could grow up balling, play basketball his entire life, get scouted to a top college, get drafted to the nba, and yet still be completely unable to shoot a basketball from anywhere but directly under the hoop. imagine an architect who can only design first floors
that isn’t a fair comparison. guys who are bigger and have bigger hands have to shoot with mechanics that are different than most. hence why KD, wemby, and porzingis play the way they do.
There are many ways to be effective and productive on the court. Rajon Rondo, a 6 foot PG in his Prime could not make a jumpshot to save his life but could rip any defense apart without having to score much.
@@EasternDeathI think he got away with it at his time, but it won't work now. Defenses will settle and live with with Rondo's mid range, then beat him with points per possession. Kind of how Butler and Derozan aren't that valuable anymore.
ben can u make a video about free throw shooting next? so many nba fans have this weird concept in their mind that stars are shooting free throws at ridiculous rates even tho most volume scorers throughout nba history have taken a great many fts.
Great point about Harden’s step back 3. I see kids and players do it at every level now but when I grew up you could never do that even in pickup. And harden has made a living off it! No knock at all but great context as always Ben. Showing how we got here through rules as well as different skill sets is important cause people always either say “they call everything” or “everyone’s too skilled”. There’s never the correct truth which is somewhere in between
This is already a very comprehensive video, but one thing I wish was covered in more detail, is the eventual saturation point for 3 point shots. My takeaway from this video is that we are seeing a new meta around 3 point shots, past the Warriors/Rockets game changing ideas. So naturally, what I want to know is, where will this meta take us? The best offensive player right now is Nikola Jokic, who is #1 or near #1 in post ups, and whose team is last in 3 point attempts. The next best offensive player is Giannis, whose major addition this season was shooting more middies. I guess what I'm saying is, it's unclear if the Celtics are the future, or just another anomaly like the '89 Knicks.
@down6ad248 but your chances at winning a championship goes much higher if you have an MVP player. Only 4 teams have won the NBA championship without a former MVP since the 80s. That was the 89-90 Pistons, 2004 pistons, 2019 Raptors and 2024 Boston. Every other championship had a former or current mvp winner still in their prime.
@@zoulzopan that just mean the league back then lacks parity in terms of talent, like jfc look at the Russell's celtics, Bird-magic and the 76ers roster compared to the rest of the league they're playing against 😂
Every year, basketball becomes a more cognitive game and it's refreshing to see someone making sense of the new direction instead of complaining about it.
I think they should do something to counter it though. As shots become easier it becomes more boring. Like when they originally added the 3 point line. The NBA should add something to spice it up a bit
i'm SOOOO GLAd you are explaining this! I've been trying to tell people to watch old games and they start to see the things of WHY basketball is NOT EASIER now, it's that nearly every player is capable of shooting and taking open threes. this makes it so hard to guard when you're operating in space! Anyways I will be sharing this to dozens of people i'm really tired of people not knowing the spacing differences and WHY this mattered.
I wish we could get your analysis in one of these half time shows. Would be a stark comparison to so many of the shows nowadays that are more about narratives.
What about the “layup from 3” where guys run and jump across the arc and get as close as possible to the basket before shooting? I want to see more of those
12:42 The idea of starting your shooting motion before you catch the ball one of those things that seems so obvious when you hear it that you wonder why it wasn't implemented on a mass scale sooner.
It's still not on a mass scale, and won't be, coz it's a worse shot than just dipping. It doesn't have that much time and removes all power from the legs, making it all about shoulders and arms. It's not gonna be used much
You lose a lot of power. It's the sort of shot that can only be taken in ideal scenarios. It's worth practicing, sure, but often in a game you're going to have to take a normal jumpshot.
Honestly growing up we were taught to shoot like that if possible because it had a faster release. Then the trendy "modern" shot mechanic analyzers looked at how the best shooters like KD had a pretty emphatic dip and how it helped rhythm and then people weren't so keen on the no-dip shot anymore - or at least I wasn't after I looked into shooting mechanics myself. I think it's harder too so it's just a less consistent shot. Now it's becoming back in style in the NBA with the best shooters demonstrating the capability.
11:10 some of y’all who say “the players back then were trash” this is an example of how it was just a different game. The things we work on now WERENT ALLOWED back then. No step backs no euro steps no flashy dribbling
That LaMelo up-fake was CRAZY. I also really like that in these clips you have him both one-legging away and toward the basket, and the side to side sweep (mostly going left), depending on the defender's position. That seems so difficult to guard if he becomes elite at these. He has efficiency problems right now but I don't know how you can gameplan for a guard who can pogo himself open at 6'9
One reason that the NBA might feel a little more boring is because fast break offense feels dimimshed. Even when teams do run, it doesn't feel like the 80s when teams were going as fast as they could to get a dunk and trying to read if the transition 3 might be in order and then sometimes bowing out of the break. I also see that in the first 3 quarters, fast break fouls are not being called to try to keep the game continuous instead of grinding to a smart foul at the rim at both ends. So teams probably see the risk in those layups with contact at the rim and choosing to kick out for a better expected value shot.
Honestly, its just that some dude in the 80s was supposed to somehow design a game that was so well designed it would hold up literally forever, in which nothing could be exploited to ruin the game. Nowadays when teams are finally playing a truly optimized game people find the design holes in the game and wish for the time of an unoptimized era where things were more fun to watch. Was the dude who made the 3 point line supposed to know in 40 years that the game would be broken like this?
@harpot678 basketball wasnt invented in the 80s lmao wtf? It was invented in 1891, over a hundred years ago lol. And you're calling Dr. Naismith just "some dude" haha smh
People don't talk about the rule changes to make the three easier, like the freedom of movement rule, the rule where you can't interfere with the shooter without it being a foul, and even the illegal moving screens that's too common nowadays
Defenses need time to adapt. In every sport when there is an offensive breakthrough the defense eventually adapts it just takes some years in the same way defenses learned how to make the post up bad offense you have to give them time to learn how minimize the effectivness of the 3 point shot
The post up became bad offense because analytics helped us realize that unless there is a mismatch or your player is Tim Duncan, the efficiency on that shot is lower than a lay up or a three. The defense didn't force anything. And everything that was highlighted in this video, how is the defense supposed to do to adapt to that? Become super humanly athletic? Spawn a bunch of Wembys to block threes?
@@halcyonfrost6790 post up is bad offense because traditional power forwards were replaced with big wings who can help from the corner but are athletic enough to get back to the corner
League average offensive rating is actually down this year. I think people are confusing more 3's being attempted, with a win for offenses. But defenses actually care more about clogging the paint and not giving up free throws. And offenses care more about attacking the rim and getting to the line. More 3 pointers aren't really a big win, so much as a back-up plan.
Also not being allowed to get within 20 feet of a shooter has completely taken the mental game out of shooting like back in the day you could literally be scared into a bad shot by a guy running at you but now they know they can just kick a leg out even and go to the free throw line it's pathetic. This video is pathetic, I used to like this channel. Keep telling us all how we can't see the beauty in an ugly looking game, I'm sure that will work for you and JJ, Ben.
Lmaoo all of those words can be simplified as "i dont play basketball" im not gonna lie bro if you're shooting a jumpshot near me i would gladly Zaza Pachulia the shit outta you 🤣
@@wesleyshum8913 We literally lost the chance to see Kawhi at the peak of his two-way powers to a random Zaza undercut. I can't believe people are trying to encourage that.
I dont know who the hell you are, but this was an EXCELLENT analysis. You put things in perspective i certainly didn't consider by using whats happened in the past to explain what's happening today. Goes to show their is a logical reason for the 3 barage instead of today's 3 point tropes we hear all the time. We'll done.
it's hard to cheat the game by shooting 3s so to me it's a better dynamic to show who is truly the better team, with the best ball movement and plays. haven't seen any games end on a baited 4-pt play vs. all the times it's happened with foul baiting drives and post ups i'll take that any day in terms of the game's integrity. looking at higher volume players 3pt% is also becoming another indicator of their effort and off court work, since the nick young saga overlapped with the warriors showing off their shooting practices and starting a dynasty off it. i also remember during the 2011 lockout a lot of the players did pro-am type stuff and were jacking up deep 3s going viral without the restriction of being in NBA games. then players started doing that stuff every summer and working out with each other, now it's by far the best part of the NBA. less possessions ending in contact, hard landings, and potential pg13/gordon hayward leg snaps is just better all around for everyone. as a cavs fan, i hated it when the warriors used it to beat us but i always respected it. and when the cavs beat the warriors with kyrie's 3 it made it undeniable. all the talk about ratings, the issue isn't the product, it's the access to the product. if i could pay $200 a year to watch every game i want on a single platform i'd watch every night, but the league (and players) wouldn't make so much money. these new deals are making them insanely rich, and while it hurts ratings a bit, ratings aren't worth more than billions of dollars. the entire point of ratings is to secure better deals and they already have every corporation fighting each other in bidding wars like this past summer.
I wonder what this means for rim protectors in the NBA. Future top tier rim protectors may end up looking a lot more like Victor and Chet right now who are more agile and capable of keeping up with guards on the perimeter, as opposed to slower stronger centers who have historically fitted the archetype of rim protectors but may not be viable do to not being able to keep up with perimeter players.
Those old highlights are the clips haters are dying for modern players to bring back😂 because apparently 1 foot inside the line is more aesthetically pleasing
They're also full of 💩. No one wants to go back to the days of half-court basketball ran through semi-athletic big men in the low post..producing 83-78 scores.
this is incredible, i always thought that the more volume of 3 point shots was due to the great value that they have today, your level of analysis is always so good and understandable, great video as always!!
All this video proved is how much we need to appreciate how good those scorers were back then to play in those conditions. So basically, Kerr and Craig Hodges could avg 13ppg today??😂😂
What should be appreciated out of a bonehead and low iq play such as long two's (their foot is at the three point line btw 🤣) out of an iso situation where their defenders have a wingspan of a pterodactyl while 4 other guys standing still and masturbating in the corner? (talking abt 2004 finals)
Don't forget that players back in the day rarely get injured because they have way less stress to their bodies. Less movements, most of the time they're just standing around doing nothing. Players today need to chase shooters off screens, fight over triple layered screens, close out on shooters, mismatch hunting. The game is just more complex now, and only casuals are denying that.
I think it's probably because it was mostly 1-on-1 basketball back than. So it was mostly about small nuances, footwork, and the such. While the game focuses more on the macro than the micro now. So if you prefer micro basketball, modern basketball could come across more simple. Because the macro isn't really what they grew up knowing. These complex sets, with other laired sets, aren't what they love. Iso basketball in the post was how basketball was played, now it's team movement basketball. It's interesting as a dichotomy
@ I also think the more 1 on 1 style is more appealing and easier for casual fans to follow as well. It also highlights individual greatness a little more
3:44 - this is why when people do these stupid “goat” conversations and people compare players.. for guys like Kobe, AI, McGrady, anyone in this era was heavily screwed.. the stats still count as the same?? But it is way WAY harder to score by this example at the timestamp
I love 3pters as a constraint on the defense to open up driving lanes. But I HATE pull up 3s. Most negative compilations of the modern 3pt era will show teams going from 3pt line to 3 pt line, chucking 3s, not even going inside the 3 pt. line. I don't care how effective it is, though I doubt it is very efficient. It is loathsome to witness, and I won't be gaslit into accepting it. Like I said, I like and understand the place of 3pters. But the current balance and the rise of pull up 3pters and other circus shots due to the non-enforcement of the actual NBA rules is loathsome. The 3 pt revolution hasn't happened in a vacuum, but alongside constant changes to the rules to benefit offense, and non-enforcement of the rules that remain that would allow defenses to adapt. How can defenses adapt when the rules are changed to punish them when they do? Some people say that there are not more fouls today than at other times. But that is because defenses have adapted to not being able to play the same defense that was played at other times. They let guys go to the rim rather than put someone on the line.
Thanks, Ben. Those Chuck clips were golden.There are more actions, more movement, more screens, more passing, more drives, and more shots at the rim than ever before. Overall share of shots (raw field goal %) is slightly improved, free throws per 100 possessions have declined, and, yes, three point shots are up. What we see today is a team game. No one is just chucking threes. The narrative, however, has gone fact free and nostalgia heavy. Folks do like rivalries and iso ball since it creates easy to follow narratives and stars.
I grew up on early 2000s ball and always have a soft spot for it but as with anything, people romanticize the good and forget about the bad. Slow ass iso ball with tons of bricked mid range jumpers, one guy taking 20+ shots while everyone else literally just stands around, scrubs getting post up plays run for them, Hack-a-Shaq at its peak...people would hate to have to go back and sit through those games.
@@PaulDaTruthPierceHand checking is an overrated myth. It was never as pervasive as folks claim, and if you did that today you'd foul out of games very quickly. I'm a 90s hoop-head (was a teen then) that appreciates the modern game.
For me, the NBA should reevaluate the defensive 3 rule. The key points of removing this rule would be: 1.) Camping of Cs in the paint. Making a decrease of paint % and perimeter defense is more vital 2.) Ball movement and euro playbook is more utilized 5-out offense is still effective not much cutting inside the paint since the C is well positioned.
@@renziair true.. if the centers can camp in the paint, more three point shooting will force teams to eventually leave the paint leading back to our current 5 out spacing offense.. More threes!!
Very good video! I only saw first few minutes but, saving for later. Perfectly explains today's NBA. Offenses figured out the statistically better way to play. Which means, if the NBA wants to make the game more dynamic in the middle and bring back the mid-court jumper, they have to extend the 3 pointer a little - but without making the court wider, the sideline 3 will become the default - so... the NBA could ... create a 2 point line! Ok, before you scratch your heads, I'm talking making a 1-pointer layup/floater shot arch (maybe make an exception for 2-pt dunks 🤔) but basically the goal should be to make a 2-point mid-court jumper a statistically equivalent shot to the 3-point shot and the 1-point shot. (Not sure what to do about Wemby yet, but) the NBA has enough shot % from different parts of the court to make educated experiments (maybe in the offseason) and shake things up. It could even increase viewership! Also, and I realize this could hurt the bottom lines, but 82 regular season games may be too many for people to care about each individual game. Games are already kind of expensive, but so are contracts. And if the next set of distribution rights comes in cheaper, contracts could go down anyway. So, as a way to pre-empt that, reduce the number of games, make each one be more important, let each player rest more to reduce injuries, and dial up the excitement once again with 1) 1/2/3 point lines and 2) fewer games per season to make each more important, maybe even divide the regular season into 3 championship cups, so 20 games per cup, 60 games per season, and the ultimate cup, the NBA Finals championship postseason! You're welcome, and I'm available to take my consultant fee, lol.
Bro FINALLY a comment with some sense. How are we blaming player for picking the best option? Imagine being mad at soccer or hockey players for taking a wide open shot at the goal...
Make shots beyond the arc worth 2-2/3 points. My other idea is put a sensor on the rim, any shot that grazes the rim is worth 2. A light lets everyone know instantly if it touched the rim. That makes the average distance shot worth less than it is now (probably something like 2.8 pts).
It's not about who to blame, it's about why would I watch games at all. Celtics shot 22/57 from 3pt yesterday, a lot of us don't find that interesting to watch.
I try to be interested in these kinda breakdown videos, but I usually duck out early 😅 I've been a fan of the NBA for over 25 years, and I didn't fall in love with the game cu I love to breakdown defensive schemes lol. I want to be entertained by superhuman captivating athletes.
Developers shouldn't be so hasty in pushing patches to nerf tactics the playerbase perceives as being "overpowered". Eventually the playerbase will adjust and overcome, just give them time.
@@thomasgarcia8118 - refs never calling carries or travels - no hand checking - defensive 3 seconds - shooters allowed to lean into defenders to draw fouls - verticality rule (single handedly killed roy hibbert's career) just to name a few
Thank you. For the last time, it's not the absence of "hand checking" that makes modern basketball more efficient, it's the use of the 3 point line. This is also why the Great dynasties of the past could not defeat the Golden State dynasty. The would not and could not take enough 3s. You can see how poorly this is understood by most fans by observing their pick up games where they play 1s and 2s (a 100% premium on shots behind the line) and that doesn't change their shot selection during those games.
It's not far fetched to assume that we'll soon see Midorima style 3s within this decade. Players will go into shooting motion before even receiving the ball. And with that, the old timers will burst their aneurysm trying to argue that dudes dry humping on the post was peak basketball, lol
I think they should try it, because like these floater 3s it's completely skill dependent, but now on two player's behalves because you need a perfect pass and a perfectly timed 'pre-shot'. Anything short of Jokic and Sam Hauser would probbaly struggle to do it consistently
@benn746 it's boring to noobs like you who don't know shit about basketball. What exactly was better, watching a bunch of slow footed tall men bang their bodies against each other just to shoot bricks, give me a break
In the NFL innovations with passing were praised even tho teams abandoned the running game but for some reason when teams get rid of long 2s in favor of 3s its seen as this bad thing instead of an innovation of the game the problem is with NBA fans being so close minded
It's not the 3s what bothers me, it's all the travelling, travel back, sidetravel 3s, ... It's ridicoulous, how are you suposed to defend that? And carrying, the NBA is becoming rugby.
The NFL is praised because the NFL's viewership is growing and the NBA's is shrinking. Football fans apparently like the changes to the game, basketball fans decidedly do not.
@@pgmc5265 Because they're close minded and all the sports media constantly shits on the NBA even before the 3 point boom basketball media has been garbage SAS and Charles Barkley on TV 24/7 trashing the game will encourage fans to do the same
No defense is the main problem, if there was defense played, then players would not be taking so many 3s because.....they would miss too high a percentage
If they allowed defense from half-court to the 3 point line to be as physical as inside the paint, all things would be equal and make midrange shots more appealing
Even if teams could maintain physical defense over that much area (and they unequivocally couldn't) it wouldn't matter. Leaguewide midrange shooting percentage is like 42%, so as long as players are shooting over 28% from 3 the midrange is never coming back
@@bboywolf "trust me" lol. More physical defense would reduce the %, obviously, but to drop it below 28% you'd need to legalize tackling. And it's not like an increase in physicality would leave the midrange % the same either. And regardless of all of that, the defenses would not be able to maintain that level of physicality on an entire team all game. Perimeter defense is near impossible already because of how much area there is to cover, which is why teams are often content letting decent shooters take open 3s. Allowing more physicality doesn't fix that, and actually arguably makes it worse given how exhausting physical defense is.
@@ColinGLogan we already have examples on the olympic floor of physicality affecting shot selection as well as playoff series where elite perimeter players are stifled by physical defenses throughout NBA history. the mid range shot % would go up since it would be an easier shot to take than the 3 by enough that there's value in taking it again. when you get tired the 3s are harder to take but now the defender is giving you more space to equal it out. what are you not getting?
Love this channel for breaking it down. Defense is better in 90s because offense cant spread. Todays era is definitely with longer range of offensive skills + superstar agility.
I used to play pick up ball when I was a student, and the Trae Young floater 3 always felt comfortable for me. And I mean before he was even in the league. We’re the same age. I think it stems from me being a kid who loved to shoot from half court in the early 2000s, so keeping that same momentum at a closer range always felt fluid. While I can understand it looks like a bad shot to non players, I wouldn’t be surprised if later in the future more evidence or research is done to show comfort ability being a high correlator to shot success. But I’m also someone who never played organized ball so maybe I’m wrong.
Been watching basketball since the mid 2000s and I've never been bored so often watching NBA games as I have the past couple years. I miss the balance of shot attempts. Ironically, Manu is my favorite player and he only scored behind the 3 point line and in the paint, but these glorified 3 point shooting contests are yawn inducing.
I always thought that basketball offense has advance so much that defense has a hard time adapting to it. That's why we tend to see poorer defense in today's era. I think one way to alleviate this is to to remove the 3 seconds defensive violation and allow hand checking again. Even then, I'm not sure if that would help so much with the 3 point revolution.
It's a shame this tactical evolution is highly inflated by the NBA continuously making it harder to play defense without catching a foul. It's already hard enough to guard a team of 3-4 ball handlers that can space the floor, but when the offensive player is allowed to: do a crossover with his hands under the ball, do a 4-step step back threes , initiate contact by bumping/wrapping their off-hand on the defender and get awarded two shots at the line, etc, it's basically impossible. The officiating is so rigged towards favouring the offense that it makes the game extremely one-sided
Fantastic video, I would love a comparison of todays nba game vs this past years Olympicss with the FIBA rules, I know it’s a small sample size but you can see how much harder it is to score with FIBA rules.
People can say what they want but the viewership numbers speak for themselves. I’ve been a huge nba fan for 2 decades. I’ve watched maybe 4-5 games total this year. Every team plays essentially the same way. High PnR, 5 out, and it’s a 3 PT shooting contest every night. With the exception of maybe 2 teams it’s the same style of basketball every night. It’s just not fun to watch. In my opinion, something drastic needs to be done. Either change the 3 to 2 1/2 points or make dunks worth 3. I know that sounds absurd, but I honestly believe the league is going to continue to decline unless a change is made.
It’s really simple. NBA Christmas games averaged 5 million. NFL streaming only averaged 24 million. NBA social media will tell you and me that we’re dumb. They talk of impressions and engagement but it’s dumb legacy media that’s paying the bills. Analogue dollars v digital dimes. You have Uber athletic Ant man and 7’4 Wemby taking half their shots from 3..that’s just crazy. They forget the NBA is in the entertainment business.
@@johnofmaltaexactly. People can manipulate the data however they want but the reality is that less people are watching. I used to watch at least one game a day. I maybe watch a game a month until the playoffs and even then I’m a casual viewer now. It simply isn’t a good product anymore. People blame illegal streams or whatever but every single other major league is seeing an increase is ratings so clearly it’s not a streaming problem, it’s an nba problem. Silver is just a terrible commissioner. A blind man could see that a change needs to be made.
Actually, before big men had to be good shooters to improve a team’s spacing, the NBA just jerry-rigged it into the game with the inane “illegal defense” rule. (I.e. you can’t double off the ball, meaning you need to be on touching distance of the guy you’re guarding even if it’s Luc Longley 24 ft from the rim! Today’s teams can choose not to guard Brook Lopez out there, and let him bomb away. The Bulls were allowed to permanently strand Longley’s defender by the 3-pt line without him ever touching the ball!) Honestly, give one thought to “illegal defense” and you’ll realize the nostalgia for 90s basketball is just utterly perverse.
They also called lots of touch fouls on post shots- that's probably one of the big changes from that era to today- post players today get absolutely no protection to their back so of course no one's going to try it any more and instead everyone's going to prefer to face up where at least they get a whistle if the defender shoves them. And yeah Sloan was really good making use of careful spacing to make Greg Ostertag's defender stand there like he's a stretch 5 to make his PnR work- illegal defense would have been used even more egregiously if the NBA didn't also have an illegal offense rule preventing a team from completely clearing out a side for isolations (this was instituted in 1989 to stop Michael Jordan). That being said, if you instead cleared out the whole side to run a PnR, that was legal.
There's fewer free throws per possession today as well. Iso ball was ugly in hindsight, but it created great rivalries and narratives that were easy to follow. Players X took over the game...was possible because to illegal defense rules, lack of passing, and a very predictable offense. It did appeal to casual fans, however.
In my few debates I actually partake in between eras I always bring this up. It was a putrid rule, completely disrupted how the game was played and its honestly hard to watch. I still respect the 90s for everything else, more so now watching 3pt contests every night
I mean, if teams dont wanna get killed by 3s then they should get better at defending 3s. I know it's easier said than done, but if you wanna win, you adapt. This is true in competitive anything.
@@shorewall yea but I mean they're not competing to entertain fans. Competition just happens to be entertaining to fans. The fans will watch. I'm a fan and I watch. The ones that find it too boring or whatever will leave once they run out of money for their parleys anyways. The game will be fine
Short answer, because it is the NATURAL EVOLUTION of the, "open shot." Firstly, as someone who has played MANY minutes of both solo basketball and pvp basketball, I think it's important to make the distinction between a "wide open" shot and a "contested" or "well-contested" shot: namely, IN GENERAL, shots that are contested or well contested are considered "more difficult." So, as the game develops, as player understanding increases due to time making more experiences available to be studied... players find more and more ways to get "wide open" and defenses get more experienced at covering new techniques. This, as I first stated, leads to NATURALLY increasing distant shots, aka 3 pointers. Simply, stepping further back makes defenses spread wider and opens up new lanes for passing. 2. Teams are leading with defensive gameplans; players expend more energy, get tired quicker, and thus take more "bad shots," due to mental fatigue, but also a tired player is more likely to take a step back shot instead of charge at the rim. 3. If you watch lots of games from every 10 years, it's evident that shot distance simply increases over time. It's not a local phenomenon; it has been happening since the very beginning. 4. Why do you think they bring amateurs and non-basketball players on-court at halftime to shoot HALF COURT shots for prize money? Because its a hell of a lot more entertaining than watching some random guy shoot free throws... lol. 5. How does any NBA fan NOT see this, intrinsically? It's BLATANTLY obvious. Lol
Seems like “evolution” is shaped heavily by the rules and enforcement then in the past 10-15yrs by analytics 1. For 2004-05 season, NBA made a major rule change to effectively ban hand checking and instantly shifted the game from nearly 60yrs of post dominated play to perimeter play 2. In 2000’s, nba enforcement of rules was allowing an extra step (2 steps and a gather) that would lead to 2009 reinterpretation of the travel rule to say two steps allowed didn’t include the gather (effectively adding the gather step). 2019 they reworded the rule to make it more clear 3. 3pt line added in 1979-80. 80’s was mostly ignored as they didn’t see the importance, 90’s saw more understanding of the use of 3’s and 2000’s kept the same pace of increase in 3P though leveled out late 2000’s early 2010’s. 4. Then early to mid 2010’s, analytics likely lead to a sharp annual increase in 3’s taken. The effective handcheck ban and extra step allowed compared to historical all made for a much more perimeter friendly league. 5. Hard to teach an old dog new tricks so the rule and enforcement changes in 2004 and even the travel rule adding an extra step benefited certain players like those already playing perimeter offense. The next generation to have played most or all of their youth after 2004-05 rule changes began to enter the league in the 2010’s which is probably why we bigs evolving in the 2010’s and then by late 2010’s and 2020’s, new bigs began shooting 3’s far more frequently as they entered high school already in the era where 3’s began to become far more important in the nba and college
Changing the illegal defense rules to allow pseudo zones and weak side help defense naturally lead to more 3 pointers. Euroleague and FIBA teams have always shot more 3s than NBA teams due to zone defense and a shorter 3 point line. Doubt anyone complained about Serbia shooting too many 3s against Team USA in the last Olympics.
The increase in rim efficiency is pretty glaring when we see all of these rim runners leading the league in the 65% to 70%+ range. That too is out of control. Most past great bigs would have had similar percentages in these modern no defense scenarios. Wilt, Shaq, and Dwight would be career 70%+ FG percentage guys.
besides the grizzlies. every team plays the same. uncontested layups/dunks are not entertaining. bring back physicality and remove the defensive 3 rule and lets see how efficient today's offense really is. we cant deny people are getting bored watching the games seeing the declining ratings. today's nba is entertaining for stat nerds no doubt but I think nba should not let analytics dictate everything. Players now are so concern about their stats because fans, gms or coaches will get them traded or dropped if they dont perform well. even athletic young players like jalen green who had exciting insane dunks will be forced to get traded because stat nerds do not like how inefficient he is. average fans watch lebron even though he is inefficient outside 3ft and these kinds of people are more drawn to athletic guys like morant even though they are not very good shooters. outside of curry, 3s are not that entertaining for some fans. rivalries and animosity that create drama is rare now in the nba because games are now dictated by who shoots the 3 ball better or who has the more efficient offense. while referees are quick to throw out players for showing emotions.
@@raymondqiu8202 grizzlies is not heavy on pnr which makes them different. They still shoot a lot of threes because they also have a 5 out offensive system with emphasis on mismatch hunting. So even though they do not do pnr as much, they are still kind of similar to the rest i think each team have slight difference in how they play but not using pnr is kind of a huge difference imo.
I know some guys that shoot 3-pt floaters. They’re all 5’5” or shorter and they only shoot it maybe once or twice during pickup, but you really don’t see it coming and the fact they swish it really pisses you off
0:18 Teams are shooting more threes "... because teams are developing strategies that are making offences harder to stop." Is that what you meant to say...?
one of the best vids analyzing why there are more threes. but again, i dont think the only reason is the change in the offense to maximise it, there is also a factor of lack of defensive skill that goes into why a lot more three opportunities are viable. not just on the ball, but especially off ball.
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coach wouldn't stoop so low
😊
ARE YOU 6’8”??? Because I think Chat GPT just calculated your height based on where your dog comes to you on your legs.
Also, you should do a video about how surprising it is that the evolution of basketball brought about a contested midrange shot before it evolved to the wide open three point shot.
It’s amazing to me that basketball players would evolve to making Michael Jordan type mid range shots before it evolved to everyone on the team being able to shoot wide open three-point shots.
Where do we go from here?
The no dip 3 is the most underrated innovation nobody is talking about.
First time I saw it, it felt like something straight out of a cartoon.
Inefficient shot that rarely go’s in
honestly i've seen guys in the 80s do that. even jerry west a lot of the time when he caught and shot, he didn'dt dip the ball if the pass was high enough. it's just that guys are practicing the same shots, but further. you see a simiar thing with big guys catching it in the paint and never lowering the ball.
@@MindfulAttraction2.0 Jerry West wasn't a regular role player though
Man we used to do those all the time, in the park never thought it actually reach the nba 😂
“If you don’t close out then I’m shooting it. If you close out then I’m attacking the paint”. - basketball deity of efficiency
Depending on your closeout then they'll attack the rim. As Hawks fans, we leave our feet where the shooter just reloads for threeIdid rather them put the ball on the floor and just shoot it.
Soon enough we’ll be lamenting the ‘2 true outcomes’ of basketball
@@tim.noonanDoes this mean that basketball is becoming a solved game?
@@TornaitSuperBird Insofar as coaches and statisticians have realized that 3>2 and that the only shot where efficiency is greater than from behind the arc, is within 3ft of the basket, yes.
@tim.noonan So thats just it then? Everyone becomes a guard, every team runs a five out set and screen and roll? Teams eventually take 60 threes a game with nothing but layups and FTs otherwise? Cause that's DEFINITELY gonna fix the cratering ratings.
Most logical basketball analysis ive seen on youtube. Too many people add biases and emotion to their analysis or just straight up false correlation. But this guy makes clear sense with his examples and conclusions.
Glaze
Basketball strategy is nuanced. But the game is simple.
and is wrong, bums hear articulation for the first time and glaze up; you can't nerd analysis your way to a conclusion when the sport is driven by superstar individuals.
this is all reactionary retrofitting bs, cherry picked analysis to suit a narrative from an amateur
@@pookiepats
Thank you...exactly what I was thinking
@@pookiepats It's actually not complicated. Basically, his point revolves around the fact that how much a shot is worth is based on the probability it will go in and the number of points you get from that shot. The probability of going in is itself affected by player skill and the type of defensive sets being played.
So, on one hand, the three-point shot is worth more mathematically and on the other, the type of defense being deployed--both of these caused the game to evolve in a manner that prioritized three pointers. And doing so changed employed defensive sets, freed up lanes, making the probability of two pointers being made go up too. As defenses evolve to adjust to this, what is a strategically optimal number of threes to take will change too. Including possibly decreasing.
Ultimate secret of basketball: Sky hook from 3, so best vertical and horizontal spacing
Or 7 footers (Wemby) shooting 3s
wemby finna do that now 🤣
Meadowlark Lemon already did that, from half court
We’re gonna see the skyhook from 3 in the middle of taking a screen for even more space
Reminds me of the game NBA Jam/NBA Hangtime
For anyone that may confused about the shooting dip, it's used to build power and rhythm on your shot. Not dipping results in a large decrease in power coming from your legs and core, so you have to make up for it with wrist power, which is harder to control. It's sort of like the difference between winding up for a punch and doing a Bruce Lee style 1 inch punch.
as a pickup basketball player for 30 yrs, I contest this take. I've actually adapted to no-dip 3's precisely because I can get more power from them as my body ages and my knees and ankles are becoming basically useless for delivering power. The no-dip 3 is easy and fast and actually gives me more range than if I dip and push off with 46 yr old knees. I'm pretty sure dipping and turning your jumper into a wind-up is entirely psychological in its benefits. Physically it's pointless extra motion, but mentally it's nice for "rhythm shots" which - in an environment devoid of defensive pressure - might result in higher percentage shooting. Unfortunately in games, defensive pressure is more likely than not.
@@JakeStineI get what you're saying but it's obviously implied that this is in a competitive setting where high level defense is being played. You did include defense in the end but pick up is not near even HS bball level defense. It makes the point moot. Shot quickness while maintaining a replicable shot form through defense and fatigue is why using your lower body is important for shooting. Even if you don't fully dip down, you still activate your lower body to create a base prior to receiving the ball.
@@JakeStinethey’ve done quite a lot of research into shooting mechanics, the dip builds kinetic energy and rhythm. No top tier shooter has no dip in their regular shot
The pickup I play is pretty much defense first and defense all the time. And lots of fouling and grabbing and swiping because guys aren't good at calling their own fouls. The league games I've played by comparison are much easier to find offensive rhythms because there's refs to keep things honest and more talent on the offensive end too, and less packed with guys who are just looking for an athletic day out and are happy to run the court and play pressure D as part of their workout. But I get that experience won't match everyone's.
@@JakeStineWhere you’re mistaken is that shooting optimally mechanics wise doesn’t involve a “wind up”. You dip, your knees bend at the bottom of your dip, then you shoot the ball in a straight one motion upwards as you jump and your knees straighten. Most of the best shooters of all time are one motion shooters (outside of exceptions like Larry Bird) and some players shoot a one motion from 3, and a two motion from the mid-range due to not needing as much power, Devin Booker for example.
BBALLBREAKDOWN has tons of videos on proper shooting mechanics, rhythm, alignment, etc on his channel. Some of his analysis of the game is frustrating at times, but he really does know a lot about how shooting mechanics have evolved and what is considered “optimal” today.
Imagine having this kind of high quality discussion on ESPN instead of old timer shouting at the moon
go watch tim legler? brian windhorst?
@@Jeremy-ot6pb I’m mostly referring to guys like Charles Barkley who’s stuck in the 80s basketball :)
@@blakeliu3713 and he still has his own audience which is why he's on tv. it's almost like, when you turn on tv, there is a huge variety of different personalities and you can choose to listen to who you want to
@@Jeremy-ot6pb Look at u being emotional for no reason 😂
What you don't like Shaq talking like he's God when he's only hit a single 3pt, EVER?
As Ben points out in the video the players are shooting the best shot available. That's what they always will do. If you want them to shoot fewer threes you either make better shots available (which would make the game a lay-up line) or you have to make good shots harder to come by. The single easiest thing to do is allow the defense to play defense and officiate the offense fairly. Call moving screens, blatant carries, travels, offensive fouls. That change alone makes it harder to get an open look and will lead to longer, more varied possessions. It's not just 3 > 2, it's that it's so easy to get a 3.
Yep, I like that this channel often points out the context of officiating that leads to changes in the sport.
allow hand checking again
Or do what the MLB did and change the rules to encourage different play styles
@@staidenofanarchyYet they also have the Venditte rule, and that's why "switch pitchers" are still an untested niche.
@TornaitSuperBird ...what? I was talking about making bases bigger, banning the shift, and the pitch clock, ya know the stuff they changed that led to the World Series numbers this year blowing the NBA Finals out of the water?
The Venditte rule was made because one dude in the entire 150 year history of the MLB was a ambidextrous pitcher, it had no bearing on any ratings or playstyle. Are you okay? Can you read?
This channel is a big part of what made me fall in love with basketball, I wish more people would appreciate how insanely skilled the nba is right now instead of talking about how 3 pointers and foul baiting are ruining the game
both can be true
@@mikeyfinn2Their skill is not that interesting to watch. But kudos to them
they just shoot 3s
foul baiting definitely the problem tho lets be honest
You fell in love with guys you gay fool
This description of the evolution of these tactics as analogous to the change of tactics on the battle field in a history documentary
But if the battle is boring to watch who cares? Who's gonna pay these guys millions of dollars to fight a BORING WAR?
Baseball figured this out before it was too late. Will basketball?
Come give me heart, old buddy Ben.
@benn746 Bro you know you can balance patch this game like a an actual video game right. Make defense stronger would help
@@taptiotrevizo9415 My point is that I don't need people explaining to me why the game is great and why this is the natural evolution of such and such. I don't need to be gaslit by JJ Redick into appreciating what I'm watching. I can watch Wemby and Joker and be satiated.
The other stuff around the main talent is what is BORING. I know basketball. I know why three is greater than two. Why Brook Lopez shooting a 40% three pointer is better than Bill Carwright shooting a 15 foot brick.
The POINT is watching Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant try to wiggle their way out of a cage like houdini is FAR more entertaining than "OPE, the STAR PLAYER's first option isn't there, so let's kick it out to an open shooter" that I can watch shoot the same shot 2 miles away at the park all day.
An open three point shot is not a challenging shot. Nor an entertaining one. A long open three point shot is barely more challenging than a shot 10 feet closer quite honestly, you wanna test that theory I'll meet you at the park.
In the end it's BORING TO WATCH unless you can dig in to League pass to find the Wemby and the Jokic and such and maybe Memphis running a halfway interesting offense, but to be lectured constantly that we just don't APPRECIATE the game is hogwash and tiring.
Ben is great at these videos and understands basketball on a level I never will. His video on the evolution of the rules of the game is in invaluable resource for any basketball fan and detailed in a way exactly and then better than I could have imagined.
But I've been watching for 30+ years and I trust THIS Ben's eyes over anyones. And when mine begin to become disinterested then this league has a problem on its hands.
The next evolution step is 3 point dunks.
nah, would clog up the paint; maybe 2-3-4 (closer 3-point line, farther 4 point line) see Haberstroh's long-read from November re: the "shot desert"
@@mikeyfinn2Nah, I'm sure they mean dunking from the 3 point line.
I imagine bigs launching their guards to the rim for such ridiculousness.
With Wemby out there, anything is possible...
As foretold by Tom Chambers in the old NBA game
Something I've noticed is that leaguewide 3pt% has stayed relatively stagnant during the 3 point revolution, but leaguewide 2pt% has slowly crept up in the same time period. And this is consistent with the trends we've seen of trading in bad 2s for good 3s and non-shooters learning to shoot. This has resulted in, for the last 3 or so seasons, near-perfect equilibrium on points per shot from 3s and 2s. My theory is that 3s will continue increasing until 3pt% starts to drop leaguewide and the points per shot on 3s goes down, at which point the balance between 2s and 3s will settle into that same equilibrium point. The average shot will pretty much always be worth the same leaguewide, but the players' skill could no longer maintain taking any more 3s without sacrificing shot quality. Basically it seems that you can train a professional athlete to shoot about 36% on in-game 3 pointers.
3PT percentage has stayed fairly stagnant while the volume has erupted. Efficient volume shooting from deep is really the entire game today.
the league is at that point right now... if we look at 3% in last 25 years it went from 35.3% in 2000 to 35.9% in 2025. numbers of 3s per game did increase from 13.7 to 37.5 which increased the efg% from 47.8% in 2000 to 54.1% in 2025. so 3%, 2% and efg% are at equilibrium and youre even starting to see teams like celtics hurting their efg% (56.3%) by taking too many 3s (50.6 3s at 36.8%) instead of 2s (40.8 2s at 57.7%). before you would see individual players hurt their efg% by shooting too many 3s, but not entire teams.
@ i agree wholeheartedly that the celtics are canary in the coal mine so to speak, but I think it’ll take a year or two of multiple (or even most) teams hurting their efg% before the backlash comes and 3s truly level out. Hopefully the smart ones will do it sooner than that, but I think we’re a couple years out from teams more or leas universally adopting whatever the equilibrium 3/2 ratio is for their personnel.
I can't help but think that prediction is gonna be broken by players eventually getting much better at shooting 3s then they are even now. Maybe nothing absurd like a +50% average, but something towards that
That's fully expected. They're becoming better shooters, but because they're shooting threes on higher volume, their %s don't rise. If they'd been shooting this much from three historically, the 3P% would have been pretty low.
The 3 most important priorities for a sound NBA defense are 1) protecting the paint- a poorly/non contested shot within 5 feet of the basket will always be the most efficient shot in basketball, 2) securing the defensive rebound, and 3) not sending the opponent to the FT line. Unless a roster has multiple elite 1-on-1 defenders, selling out to either shut off the 3 or force a lot of turnovers will cause a team to slide to the bottom in at least 1 of those 3 key defensive priorities. Case in point would be Pacers last season who allowed the fewest 3s in the league per game, yet had a garbage team defense because they were 29th in points allowed in the paint. Coaching staffs understand this and hence, will continue concede clean looks from 3 to non-elite shooters. Players are just too offensively skilled now for defenses to be able to take everything away
And it turns out that chucking shots from 3 is the least entertaining form of basketball.
@@shorewall disagree. Its very entertaining if you enjoy tactical basketball. To see all the movement and how those three are genrated are fantastic.
@@shorewall and you're implying that chucking fuckass middies is somehow more entertaining? 😂
@@izziramirezProblem is that the average person doesn't really understand tactical basketball.
@@shorewalljust say u can't comprehend off ball action and move on 🤣
Sometimes when im in a shooting slump i just pull out the floater three to keep the defense on their toes
Not these dudes they not smart enough to do that
Idk why but floater threes/ running threes have always felt easier to me
@@ryanworrell766 true. And people find it weird when I spam floaters as if its super risky or difficult.
I did this at the ymca and they couldn't believe it
@@ryanworrell766 fr going left and just chucking the floater always way easier than pulling up
i've always felt it was crazy that a guy could grow up balling, play basketball his entire life, get scouted to a top college, get drafted to the nba, and yet still be completely unable to shoot a basketball from anywhere but directly under the hoop. imagine an architect who can only design first floors
that isn’t a fair comparison. guys who are bigger and have bigger hands have to shoot with mechanics that are different than most. hence why KD, wemby, and porzingis play the way they do.
There are many ways to be effective and productive on the court. Rajon Rondo, a 6 foot PG in his Prime could not make a jumpshot to save his life but could rip any defense apart without having to score much.
@@EasternDeathI think he got away with it at his time, but it won't work now. Defenses will settle and live with with Rondo's mid range, then beat him with points per possession. Kind of how Butler and Derozan aren't that valuable anymore.
@@EasternDeaththats rare you’d have to be so amazing at everything else it would work. Especially rn
But the architect who only can design first floors, he designs them better than anyone
ben can u make a video about free throw shooting next? so many nba fans have this weird concept in their mind that stars are shooting free throws at ridiculous rates even tho most volume scorers throughout nba history have taken a great many fts.
They just don't like watching free throws so they look at ftm or fta at bbref and sort from the top and blame them lmao
Definitely would be a great vid
😂the hawks bench after bird's shot @15:58
Great point about Harden’s step back 3. I see kids and players do it at every level now but when I grew up you could never do that even in pickup. And harden has made a living off it! No knock at all but great context as always Ben. Showing how we got here through rules as well as different skill sets is important cause people always either say “they call everything” or “everyone’s too skilled”. There’s never the correct truth which is somewhere in between
Well, back then you could do it in pickup but you might get punched in the face for it eventually
This is already a very comprehensive video, but one thing I wish was covered in more detail, is the eventual saturation point for 3 point shots. My takeaway from this video is that we are seeing a new meta around 3 point shots, past the Warriors/Rockets game changing ideas. So naturally, what I want to know is, where will this meta take us? The best offensive player right now is Nikola Jokic, who is #1 or near #1 in post ups, and whose team is last in 3 point attempts. The next best offensive player is Giannis, whose major addition this season was shooting more middies.
I guess what I'm saying is, it's unclear if the Celtics are the future, or just another anomaly like the '89 Knicks.
or jokic and giannis are anomalys, its way easier to get a couple 6'6 - 6'9 guys who can shoot the 3 than get mvp level players
@down6ad248 but your chances at winning a championship goes much higher if you have an MVP player. Only 4 teams have won the NBA championship without a former MVP since the 80s. That was the 89-90 Pistons, 2004 pistons, 2019 Raptors and 2024 Boston. Every other championship had a former or current mvp winner still in their prime.
2030. 80% of shots will be 3s
@@zoulzopan that just mean the league back then lacks parity in terms of talent, like jfc look at the Russell's celtics, Bird-magic and the 76ers roster compared to the rest of the league they're playing against 😂
@@regalhunt8496 you obviously didn't read my entire comment.
We need an Knicks video. Ethical basketball with the Bodega.
Every year, basketball becomes a more cognitive game and it's refreshing to see someone making sense of the new direction instead of complaining about it.
Exactly 💯
I think they should do something to counter it though. As shots become easier it becomes more boring. Like when they originally added the 3 point line. The NBA should add something to spice it up a bit
One of the only videos I seen that even mentions morey in regards to the three point shot. Good job at remembering actual history.
i'm SOOOO GLAd you are explaining this! I've been trying to tell people to watch old games and they start to see the things of WHY basketball is NOT EASIER now, it's that nearly every player is capable of shooting and taking open threes. this makes it so hard to guard when you're operating in space! Anyways I will be sharing this to dozens of people i'm really tired of people not knowing the spacing differences and WHY this mattered.
I wish we could get your analysis in one of these half time shows. Would be a stark comparison to so many of the shows nowadays that are more about narratives.
What about the “layup from 3” where guys run and jump across the arc and get as close as possible to the basket before shooting? I want to see more of those
12:42 The idea of starting your shooting motion before you catch the ball one of those things that seems so obvious when you hear it that you wonder why it wasn't implemented on a mass scale sooner.
Because it's lower percetage shot than with dip
because it requires an almost perfect pass to the shooter. it needs 2 guys to do a no dip 3.
It's still not on a mass scale, and won't be, coz it's a worse shot than just dipping. It doesn't have that much time and removes all power from the legs, making it all about shoulders and arms. It's not gonna be used much
You lose a lot of power. It's the sort of shot that can only be taken in ideal scenarios. It's worth practicing, sure, but often in a game you're going to have to take a normal jumpshot.
Honestly growing up we were taught to shoot like that if possible because it had a faster release. Then the trendy "modern" shot mechanic analyzers looked at how the best shooters like KD had a pretty emphatic dip and how it helped rhythm and then people weren't so keen on the no-dip shot anymore - or at least I wasn't after I looked into shooting mechanics myself. I think it's harder too so it's just a less consistent shot. Now it's becoming back in style in the NBA with the best shooters demonstrating the capability.
Finally someone who actually gets it. Real analysis of what is actually going on.
11:10 some of y’all who say “the players back then were trash” this is an example of how it was just a different game. The things we work on now WERENT ALLOWED back then. No step backs no euro steps no flashy dribbling
the euro would've always been allowed lol just nobody did it
That LaMelo up-fake was CRAZY. I also really like that in these clips you have him both one-legging away and toward the basket, and the side to side sweep (mostly going left), depending on the defender's position. That seems so difficult to guard if he becomes elite at these. He has efficiency problems right now but I don't know how you can gameplan for a guard who can pogo himself open at 6'9
One reason that the NBA might feel a little more boring is because fast break offense feels dimimshed. Even when teams do run, it doesn't feel like the 80s when teams were going as fast as they could to get a dunk and trying to read if the transition 3 might be in order and then sometimes bowing out of the break. I also see that in the first 3 quarters, fast break fouls are not being called to try to keep the game continuous instead of grinding to a smart foul at the rim at both ends. So teams probably see the risk in those layups with contact at the rim and choosing to kick out for a better expected value shot.
Honestly, its just that some dude in the 80s was supposed to somehow design a game that was so well designed it would hold up literally forever, in which nothing could be exploited to ruin the game. Nowadays when teams are finally playing a truly optimized game people find the design holes in the game and wish for the time of an unoptimized era where things were more fun to watch. Was the dude who made the 3 point line supposed to know in 40 years that the game would be broken like this?
@@harpot678No he wasn’t. That still doesn’t mean that those changes can’t be addressed in the current day.
@harpot678 basketball wasnt invented in the 80s lmao wtf? It was invented in 1891, over a hundred years ago lol. And you're calling Dr. Naismith just "some dude" haha smh
@@MerkhVision The 3 point line was invented in the 80s, the 3 point line was fine for 30+ years until teams started to attempt to play optimally
The shot making and creating in this era is just on a completely different level than any other previous era.
People don't talk about the rule changes to make the three easier, like the freedom of movement rule, the rule where you can't interfere with the shooter without it being a foul, and even the illegal moving screens that's too common nowadays
Nice discussion - only thing missing was the introduction of the defensive 3 second rule
Defenses need time to adapt. In every sport when there is an offensive breakthrough the defense eventually adapts it just takes some years in the same way defenses learned how to make the post up bad offense you have to give them time to learn how minimize the effectivness of the 3 point shot
@@ColdSnapVADont act like hand checking rules are enforced players still put their hand on ball handlers hip its never changed
@@ColdSnapVA 100%. 3pts are worth more than 2, but the NBA also has their hand on the scale, so it is overcorrecting for the offense.
The post up became bad offense because analytics helped us realize that unless there is a mismatch or your player is Tim Duncan, the efficiency on that shot is lower than a lay up or a three. The defense didn't force anything. And everything that was highlighted in this video, how is the defense supposed to do to adapt to that? Become super humanly athletic? Spawn a bunch of Wembys to block threes?
@@halcyonfrost6790 post up is bad offense because traditional power forwards were replaced with big wings who can help from the corner but are athletic enough to get back to the corner
League average offensive rating is actually down this year. I think people are confusing more 3's being attempted, with a win for offenses. But defenses actually care more about clogging the paint and not giving up free throws. And offenses care more about attacking the rim and getting to the line. More 3 pointers aren't really a big win, so much as a back-up plan.
This channel sets the standard for analysis of hoops. You an bball breakdown are amazing man.
Illegal screens are what led to such an explosion in 3 pointers. If you can hold a defender defense is pointless.
Also not being allowed to get within 20 feet of a shooter has completely taken the mental game out of shooting like back in the day you could literally be scared into a bad shot by a guy running at you but now they know they can just kick a leg out even and go to the free throw line it's pathetic. This video is pathetic, I used to like this channel.
Keep telling us all how we can't see the beauty in an ugly looking game, I'm sure that will work for you and JJ, Ben.
@@benn746landing in space of a shooter was never and will never be legal buddy. You’re asking for major injuries by doing that. 😊
Lmaoo all of those words can be simplified as "i dont play basketball" im not gonna lie bro if you're shooting a jumpshot near me i would gladly Zaza Pachulia the shit outta you 🤣
@@wesleyshum8913 We literally lost the chance to see Kawhi at the peak of his two-way powers to a random Zaza undercut. I can't believe people are trying to encourage that.
I dont know who the hell you are, but this was an EXCELLENT analysis. You put things in perspective i certainly didn't consider by using whats happened in the past to explain what's happening today. Goes to show their is a logical reason for the 3 barage instead of today's 3 point tropes we hear all the time. We'll done.
it's hard to cheat the game by shooting 3s so to me it's a better dynamic to show who is truly the better team, with the best ball movement and plays. haven't seen any games end on a baited 4-pt play vs. all the times it's happened with foul baiting drives and post ups i'll take that any day in terms of the game's integrity. looking at higher volume players 3pt% is also becoming another indicator of their effort and off court work, since the nick young saga overlapped with the warriors showing off their shooting practices and starting a dynasty off it. i also remember during the 2011 lockout a lot of the players did pro-am type stuff and were jacking up deep 3s going viral without the restriction of being in NBA games. then players started doing that stuff every summer and working out with each other, now it's by far the best part of the NBA. less possessions ending in contact, hard landings, and potential pg13/gordon hayward leg snaps is just better all around for everyone. as a cavs fan, i hated it when the warriors used it to beat us but i always respected it. and when the cavs beat the warriors with kyrie's 3 it made it undeniable. all the talk about ratings, the issue isn't the product, it's the access to the product. if i could pay $200 a year to watch every game i want on a single platform i'd watch every night, but the league (and players) wouldn't make so much money. these new deals are making them insanely rich, and while it hurts ratings a bit, ratings aren't worth more than billions of dollars. the entire point of ratings is to secure better deals and they already have every corporation fighting each other in bidding wars like this past summer.
Appreciate you still making quality videos for non members!
I wonder what this means for rim protectors in the NBA. Future top tier rim protectors may end up looking a lot more like Victor and Chet right now who are more agile and capable of keeping up with guards on the perimeter, as opposed to slower stronger centers who have historically fitted the archetype of rim protectors but may not be viable do to not being able to keep up with perimeter players.
Big body rim protectors still have a place, that's why OKC got Hartenstein. But you need at least one option who can not get spaced off the floor.
this conversation is waaaaay more nuanced than "taking too many 3's herp derp"
Those old highlights are the clips haters are dying for modern players to bring back😂 because apparently 1 foot inside the line is more aesthetically pleasing
They're also full of 💩. No one wants to go back to the days of half-court basketball ran through semi-athletic big men in the low post..producing 83-78 scores.
@ not a soul fam
Takes like this is why the NBA is dying. 3 point sexuals like you are ok with a league that has essentially made defense illegal entirely.
been a fan for a while and boy was this a great video to watch - thanks for making it free for everyone to enjoy
Thank you for giving us great content as always
this is incredible, i always thought that the more volume of 3 point shots was due to the great value that they have today, your level of analysis is always so good and understandable, great video as always!!
All this video proved is how much we need to appreciate how good those scorers were back then to play in those conditions. So basically, Kerr and Craig Hodges could avg 13ppg today??😂😂
What should be appreciated out of a bonehead and low iq play such as long two's (their foot is at the three point line btw 🤣) out of an iso situation where their defenders have a wingspan of a pterodactyl while 4 other guys standing still and masturbating in the corner? (talking abt 2004 finals)
More Thinking Basketball OGs remember the floater 3 segment with J Kyle Mann. 😎😎
I'm smiling ear to ear rn! 😁😁
Don't forget that players back in the day rarely get injured because they have way less stress to their bodies. Less movements, most of the time they're just standing around doing nothing. Players today need to chase shooters off screens, fight over triple layered screens, close out on shooters, mismatch hunting. The game is just more complex now, and only casuals are denying that.
The game sucks right now literally only basketball nerds like this shit.
I think it's probably because it was mostly 1-on-1 basketball back than. So it was mostly about small nuances, footwork, and the such. While the game focuses more on the macro than the micro now. So if you prefer micro basketball, modern basketball could come across more simple. Because the macro isn't really what they grew up knowing. These complex sets, with other laired sets, aren't what they love. Iso basketball in the post was how basketball was played, now it's team movement basketball. It's interesting as a dichotomy
@ I also think the more 1 on 1 style is more appealing and easier for casual fans to follow as well.
It also highlights individual greatness a little more
@joshuad24 it is, you just gotta watch one thing. You just watch 2 guys compete, rather than watch 10 guys compete
Is that even true ?
Best video in a while, great job
3:44 - this is why when people do these stupid “goat” conversations and people compare players.. for guys like Kobe, AI, McGrady, anyone in this era was heavily screwed.. the stats still count as the same?? But it is way WAY harder to score by this example at the timestamp
This was an outstanding video! Thank you so much! 🎉
I love 3pters as a constraint on the defense to open up driving lanes. But I HATE pull up 3s. Most negative compilations of the modern 3pt era will show teams going from 3pt line to 3 pt line, chucking 3s, not even going inside the 3 pt. line. I don't care how effective it is, though I doubt it is very efficient. It is loathsome to witness, and I won't be gaslit into accepting it.
Like I said, I like and understand the place of 3pters. But the current balance and the rise of pull up 3pters and other circus shots due to the non-enforcement of the actual NBA rules is loathsome. The 3 pt revolution hasn't happened in a vacuum, but alongside constant changes to the rules to benefit offense, and non-enforcement of the rules that remain that would allow defenses to adapt. How can defenses adapt when the rules are changed to punish them when they do?
Some people say that there are not more fouls today than at other times. But that is because defenses have adapted to not being able to play the same defense that was played at other times. They let guys go to the rim rather than put someone on the line.
this channel is still the best in the business
Thanks, Ben. Those Chuck clips were golden.There are more actions, more movement, more screens, more passing, more drives, and more shots at the rim than ever before. Overall share of shots (raw field goal %) is slightly improved, free throws per 100 possessions have declined, and, yes, three point shots are up. What we see today is a team game. No one is just chucking threes. The narrative, however, has gone fact free and nostalgia heavy. Folks do like rivalries and iso ball since it creates easy to follow narratives and stars.
I grew up on early 2000s ball and always have a soft spot for it but as with anything, people romanticize the good and forget about the bad. Slow ass iso ball with tons of bricked mid range jumpers, one guy taking 20+ shots while everyone else literally just stands around, scrubs getting post up plays run for them, Hack-a-Shaq at its peak...people would hate to have to go back and sit through those games.
Free throws per 2pt attempt are actually up
I start handchecking and none of these dudes would score on me.
@@PaulDaTruthPierceHand checking is an overrated myth. It was never as pervasive as folks claim, and if you did that today you'd foul out of games very quickly. I'm a 90s hoop-head (was a teen then) that appreciates the modern game.
@ What did Lebron shoot his rookie year ?
love the content you put out, happy to see you working with NBA
For me, the NBA should reevaluate the defensive 3 rule. The key points of removing this rule would be:
1.) Camping of Cs in the paint. Making a decrease of paint % and perimeter defense is more vital
2.) Ball movement and euro playbook is more utilized
5-out offense is still effective not much cutting inside the paint since the C is well positioned.
I agree with this. I have been saying this for a while that nba needs to remove the defensive 3 rule.
Which would lead to more threes.
@@renziair true.. if the centers can camp in the paint, more three point shooting will force teams to eventually leave the paint leading back to our current 5 out spacing offense.. More threes!!
@@renziair, thank you. People who make this claim don't even understand what would happen when their proposed rules are adopted.😂😂😂
@@renziairwrong with out the defensive 3 seconds you can actually play real help side defense and effectively close out on 3s
Very good video! I only saw first few minutes but, saving for later. Perfectly explains today's NBA. Offenses figured out the statistically better way to play.
Which means, if the NBA wants to make the game more dynamic in the middle and bring back the mid-court jumper, they have to extend the 3 pointer a little - but without making the court wider, the sideline 3 will become the default - so... the NBA could ... create a 2 point line! Ok, before you scratch your heads, I'm talking making a 1-pointer layup/floater shot arch (maybe make an exception for 2-pt dunks 🤔) but basically the goal should be to make a 2-point mid-court jumper a statistically equivalent shot to the 3-point shot and the 1-point shot. (Not sure what to do about Wemby yet, but) the NBA has enough shot % from different parts of the court to make educated experiments (maybe in the offseason) and shake things up. It could even increase viewership!
Also, and I realize this could hurt the bottom lines, but 82 regular season games may be too many for people to care about each individual game. Games are already kind of expensive, but so are contracts. And if the next set of distribution rights comes in cheaper, contracts could go down anyway. So, as a way to pre-empt that, reduce the number of games, make each one be more important, let each player rest more to reduce injuries, and dial up the excitement once again with 1) 1/2/3 point lines and 2) fewer games per season to make each more important, maybe even divide the regular season into 3 championship cups, so 20 games per cup, 60 games per season, and the ultimate cup, the NBA Finals championship postseason!
You're welcome, and I'm available to take my consultant fee, lol.
Why blame the players for chucking threes if inherently this is bound to happen sooner or later.
Bro FINALLY a comment with some sense. How are we blaming player for picking the best option? Imagine being mad at soccer or hockey players for taking a wide open shot at the goal...
Make shots beyond the arc worth 2-2/3 points. My other idea is put a sensor on the rim, any shot that grazes the rim is worth 2. A light lets everyone know instantly if it touched the rim. That makes the average distance shot worth less than it is now (probably something like 2.8 pts).
If this channel is called “*Thinking* Basketball” what should the other ones be called?
It's not about who to blame, it's about why would I watch games at all. Celtics shot 22/57 from 3pt yesterday, a lot of us don't find that interesting to watch.
lol we can tell you people are casuals
I try to be interested in these kinda breakdown videos, but I usually duck out early 😅
I've been a fan of the NBA for over 25 years, and I didn't fall in love with the game cu I love to breakdown defensive schemes lol. I want to be entertained by superhuman captivating athletes.
To each their own.
I think most people would rather watch this, intelligent type of basketball analysis, then whatever the hell is going on at TNT
14:00 THESE TRAE YOUNG PASS STYLE ANIMATIONS ARE CRAZY😳🔥🔥
Developers shouldn't be so hasty in pushing patches to nerf tactics the playerbase perceives as being "overpowered". Eventually the playerbase will adjust and overcome, just give them time.
AMEN
Damn, thats some poetry right there
like all the patches they put in to nerf defence?
@@MarsofAritialike allowing teams to play zone and help defense?
@@thomasgarcia8118
- refs never calling carries or travels
- no hand checking
- defensive 3 seconds
- shooters allowed to lean into defenders to draw fouls
- verticality rule (single handedly killed roy hibbert's career)
just to name a few
Thank you. For the last time, it's not the absence of "hand checking" that makes modern basketball more efficient, it's the use of the 3 point line. This is also why the Great dynasties of the past could not defeat the Golden State dynasty. The would not and could not take enough 3s. You can see how poorly this is understood by most fans by observing their pick up games where they play 1s and 2s (a 100% premium on shots behind the line) and that doesn't change their shot selection during those games.
It's not far fetched to assume that we'll soon see Midorima style 3s within this decade. Players will go into shooting motion before even receiving the ball. And with that, the old timers will burst their aneurysm trying to argue that dudes dry humping on the post was peak basketball, lol
🤣🤣🤣
@@MotivationalMedia09, your comment gave a good chuckle 😊😂😂😂
@@freddypyotr3771 then in 3069 they'll complain they miss full-humans play
I think they should try it, because like these floater 3s it's completely skill dependent, but now on two player's behalves because you need a perfect pass and a perfectly timed 'pre-shot'. Anything short of Jokic and Sam Hauser would probbaly struggle to do it consistently
The three second rule on defense definitely makes it easier for kick out three and the increase of the threes now a days
idk..... ALLOW THEM TO PLAY DEFENSE?
Idea: Make a video about proposed rules changes limit the three point shots. What would be the side effects of each rule change?
Why should the three point shot be limited?
@@conquest_icon-f4w Because it's boring as f*ck I can go to the park and watch guys chuck all day, Jesus this isn't hard to figure out kiddos.
@benn746 it's boring to noobs like you who don't know shit about basketball. What exactly was better, watching a bunch of slow footed tall men bang their bodies against each other just to shoot bricks, give me a break
nba players are finally catching up to kuroko no basket
This analysis is good, that I didn't skip the ad. Respect!
In the NFL innovations with passing were praised even tho teams abandoned the running game but for some reason when teams get rid of long 2s in favor of 3s its seen as this bad thing instead of an innovation of the game the problem is with NBA fans being so close minded
It's not the 3s what bothers me, it's all the travelling, travel back, sidetravel 3s, ... It's ridicoulous, how are you suposed to defend that? And carrying, the NBA is becoming rugby.
The NFL is praised because the NFL's viewership is growing and the NBA's is shrinking. Football fans apparently like the changes to the game, basketball fans decidedly do not.
@@pgmc5265 Because they're close minded and all the sports media constantly shits on the NBA even before the 3 point boom basketball media has been garbage SAS and Charles Barkley on TV 24/7 trashing the game will encourage fans to do the same
No defense is the main problem, if there was defense played, then players would not be taking so many 3s because.....they would miss too high a percentage
@@Usulutan1978 Not even gonna dignify this lazy comment with a real response
Love the video, the micro-point about player skill is really interesting!
If they allowed defense from half-court to the 3 point line to be as physical as inside the paint, all things would be equal and make midrange shots more appealing
Even if teams could maintain physical defense over that much area (and they unequivocally couldn't) it wouldn't matter. Leaguewide midrange shooting percentage is like 42%, so as long as players are shooting over 28% from 3 the midrange is never coming back
@@ColinGLogan trust me, shooters hate physicality more than anything. 3pt shooting would crater
@@bboywolf "trust me" lol. More physical defense would reduce the %, obviously, but to drop it below 28% you'd need to legalize tackling. And it's not like an increase in physicality would leave the midrange % the same either.
And regardless of all of that, the defenses would not be able to maintain that level of physicality on an entire team all game. Perimeter defense is near impossible already because of how much area there is to cover, which is why teams are often content letting decent shooters take open 3s. Allowing more physicality doesn't fix that, and actually arguably makes it worse given how exhausting physical defense is.
@@ColinGLogan we already have examples on the olympic floor of physicality affecting shot selection as well as playoff series where elite perimeter players are stifled by physical defenses throughout NBA history.
the mid range shot % would go up since it would be an easier shot to take than the 3 by enough that there's value in taking it again.
when you get tired the 3s are harder to take but now the defender is giving you more space to equal it out. what are you not getting?
@@bboywolfyou can’t be “physical” on a literal jumpshot. That’s called a foul 😂
Love this channel for breaking it down. Defense is better in 90s because offense cant spread. Todays era is definitely with longer range of offensive skills + superstar agility.
So why are ratings down?
@@oxfordbambooshootify illegal stream
Free streams
I used to play pick up ball when I was a student, and the Trae Young floater 3 always felt comfortable for me. And I mean before he was even in the league. We’re the same age. I think it stems from me being a kid who loved to shoot from half court in the early 2000s, so keeping that same momentum at a closer range always felt fluid. While I can understand it looks like a bad shot to non players, I wouldn’t be surprised if later in the future more evidence or research is done to show comfort ability being a high correlator to shot success. But I’m also someone who never played organized ball so maybe I’m wrong.
Been watching basketball since the mid 2000s and I've never been bored so often watching NBA games as I have the past couple years. I miss the balance of shot attempts. Ironically, Manu is my favorite player and he only scored behind the 3 point line and in the paint, but these glorified 3 point shooting contests are yawn inducing.
I always thought that basketball offense has advance so much that defense has a hard time adapting to it. That's why we tend to see poorer defense in today's era. I think one way to alleviate this is to to remove the 3 seconds defensive violation and allow hand checking again. Even then, I'm not sure if that would help so much with the 3 point revolution.
It's a shame this tactical evolution is highly inflated by the NBA continuously making it harder to play defense without catching a foul. It's already hard enough to guard a team of 3-4 ball handlers that can space the floor, but when the offensive player is allowed to: do a crossover with his hands under the ball, do a 4-step step back threes , initiate contact by bumping/wrapping their off-hand on the defender and get awarded two shots at the line, etc, it's basically impossible. The officiating is so rigged towards favouring the offense that it makes the game extremely one-sided
Exactly that's my issue with today's nba.
Fantastic video, I would love a comparison of todays nba game vs this past years Olympicss with the FIBA rules, I know it’s a small sample size but you can see how much harder it is to score with FIBA rules.
People can say what they want but the viewership numbers speak for themselves. I’ve been a huge nba fan for 2 decades. I’ve watched maybe 4-5 games total this year. Every team plays essentially the same way. High PnR, 5 out, and it’s a 3 PT shooting contest every night. With the exception of maybe 2 teams it’s the same style of basketball every night. It’s just not fun to watch. In my opinion, something drastic needs to be done. Either change the 3 to 2 1/2 points or make dunks worth 3. I know that sounds absurd, but I honestly believe the league is going to continue to decline unless a change is made.
It’s really simple. NBA Christmas games averaged 5 million. NFL streaming only averaged 24 million. NBA social media will tell you and me that we’re dumb. They talk of impressions and engagement but it’s dumb legacy media that’s paying the bills. Analogue dollars v digital dimes. You have Uber athletic Ant man and 7’4 Wemby taking half their shots from 3..that’s just crazy. They forget the NBA is in the entertainment business.
@@johnofmaltaexactly. People can manipulate the data however they want but the reality is that less people are watching. I used to watch at least one game a day. I maybe watch a game a month until the playoffs and even then I’m a casual viewer now. It simply isn’t a good product anymore. People blame illegal streams or whatever but every single other major league is seeing an increase is ratings so clearly it’s not a streaming problem, it’s an nba problem. Silver is just a terrible commissioner. A blind man could see that a change needs to be made.
Very good analysis. Never seen anyone do this, even espn.
Actually, before big men had to be good shooters to improve a team’s spacing, the NBA just jerry-rigged it into the game with the inane “illegal defense” rule. (I.e. you can’t double off the ball, meaning you need to be on touching distance of the guy you’re guarding even if it’s Luc Longley 24 ft from the rim! Today’s teams can choose not to guard Brook Lopez out there, and let him bomb away. The Bulls were allowed to permanently strand Longley’s defender by the 3-pt line without him ever touching the ball!)
Honestly, give one thought to “illegal defense” and you’ll realize the nostalgia for 90s basketball is just utterly perverse.
They also called lots of touch fouls on post shots- that's probably one of the big changes from that era to today- post players today get absolutely no protection to their back so of course no one's going to try it any more and instead everyone's going to prefer to face up where at least they get a whistle if the defender shoves them.
And yeah Sloan was really good making use of careful spacing to make Greg Ostertag's defender stand there like he's a stretch 5 to make his PnR work- illegal defense would have been used even more egregiously if the NBA didn't also have an illegal offense rule preventing a team from completely clearing out a side for isolations (this was instituted in 1989 to stop Michael Jordan). That being said, if you instead cleared out the whole side to run a PnR, that was legal.
This is a big part in why u shouldn't argue amongst eras...players take advantage of the rules given
There's fewer free throws per possession today as well. Iso ball was ugly in hindsight, but it created great rivalries and narratives that were easy to follow. Players X took over the game...was possible because to illegal defense rules, lack of passing, and a very predictable offense. It did appeal to casual fans, however.
You mean “gerrymandered?”
In my few debates I actually partake in between eras I always bring this up. It was a putrid rule, completely disrupted how the game was played and its honestly hard to watch. I still respect the 90s for everything else, more so now watching 3pt contests every night
Really insightful!!
I mean, if teams dont wanna get killed by 3s then they should get better at defending 3s. I know it's easier said than done, but if you wanna win, you adapt. This is true in competitive anything.
It's more that fans don't care to watch tons of 3s being taken, whether or not they go in.
They can't defend it right now because 3 point shooting fouls are called so aggressively.
@@shorewall yea but I mean they're not competing to entertain fans. Competition just happens to be entertaining to fans. The fans will watch. I'm a fan and I watch. The ones that find it too boring or whatever will leave once they run out of money for their parleys anyways. The game will be fine
@@poly_g6068 I will agree with this. Although good defensive teams will find ways to defend it without fouling. At least they should anyways
Short answer, because it is the NATURAL EVOLUTION of the, "open shot."
Firstly, as someone who has played MANY minutes of both solo basketball and pvp basketball, I think it's important to make the distinction between a "wide open" shot and a "contested" or "well-contested" shot: namely, IN GENERAL, shots that are contested or well contested are considered "more difficult." So, as the game develops, as player understanding increases due to time making more experiences available to be studied... players find more and more ways to get "wide open" and defenses get more experienced at covering new techniques. This, as I first stated, leads to NATURALLY increasing distant shots, aka 3 pointers. Simply, stepping further back makes defenses spread wider and opens up new lanes for passing.
2. Teams are leading with defensive gameplans; players expend more energy, get tired quicker, and thus take more "bad shots," due to mental fatigue, but also a tired player is more likely to take a step back shot instead of charge at the rim.
3. If you watch lots of games from every 10 years, it's evident that shot distance simply increases over time. It's not a local phenomenon; it has been happening since the very beginning.
4. Why do you think they bring amateurs and non-basketball players on-court at halftime to shoot HALF COURT shots for prize money? Because its a hell of a lot more entertaining than watching some random guy shoot free throws... lol.
5. How does any NBA fan NOT see this, intrinsically? It's BLATANTLY obvious. Lol
Seems like “evolution” is shaped heavily by the rules and enforcement then in the past 10-15yrs by analytics
1. For 2004-05 season, NBA made a major rule change to effectively ban hand checking and instantly shifted the game from nearly 60yrs of post dominated play to perimeter play
2. In 2000’s, nba enforcement of rules was allowing an extra step (2 steps and a gather) that would lead to 2009 reinterpretation of the travel rule to say two steps allowed didn’t include the gather (effectively adding the gather step). 2019 they reworded the rule to make it more clear
3. 3pt line added in 1979-80. 80’s was mostly ignored as they didn’t see the importance, 90’s saw more understanding of the use of 3’s and 2000’s kept the same pace of increase in 3P though leveled out late 2000’s early 2010’s.
4. Then early to mid 2010’s, analytics likely lead to a sharp annual increase in 3’s taken. The effective handcheck ban and extra step allowed compared to historical all made for a much more perimeter friendly league.
5. Hard to teach an old dog new tricks so the rule and enforcement changes in 2004 and even the travel rule adding an extra step benefited certain players like those already playing perimeter offense. The next generation to have played most or all of their youth after 2004-05 rule changes began to enter the league in the 2010’s which is probably why we bigs evolving in the 2010’s and then by late 2010’s and 2020’s, new bigs began shooting 3’s far more frequently as they entered high school already in the era where 3’s began to become far more important in the nba and college
Changing the illegal defense rules to allow pseudo zones and weak side help defense naturally lead to more 3 pointers. Euroleague and FIBA teams have always shot more 3s than NBA teams due to zone defense and a shorter 3 point line. Doubt anyone complained about Serbia shooting too many 3s against Team USA in the last Olympics.
The increase in rim efficiency is pretty glaring when we see all of these rim runners leading the league in the 65% to 70%+ range. That too is out of control. Most past great bigs would have had similar percentages in these modern no defense scenarios. Wilt, Shaq, and Dwight would be career 70%+ FG percentage guys.
besides the grizzlies. every team plays the same. uncontested layups/dunks are not entertaining. bring back physicality and remove the defensive 3 rule and lets see how efficient today's offense really is. we cant deny people are getting bored watching the games seeing the declining ratings. today's nba is entertaining for stat nerds no doubt but I think nba should not let analytics dictate everything. Players now are so concern about their stats because fans, gms or coaches will get them traded or dropped if they dont perform well. even athletic young players like jalen green who had exciting insane dunks will be forced to get traded because stat nerds do not like how inefficient he is. average fans watch lebron even though he is inefficient outside 3ft and these kinds of people are more drawn to athletic guys like morant even though they are not very good shooters. outside of curry, 3s are not that entertaining for some fans. rivalries and animosity that create drama is rare now in the nba because games are now dictated by who shoots the 3 ball better or who has the more efficient offense. while referees are quick to throw out players for showing emotions.
Well….these people playing are human, the coaches are human, everyone needs a job to pay the bills. And you pay the bills with success and winning.
Why do you say besides the grizzlies? What do they do differently? Just curious
@@raymondqiu8202 grizzlies is not heavy on pnr which makes them different. They still shoot a lot of threes because they also have a 5 out offensive system with emphasis on mismatch hunting. So even though they do not do pnr as much, they are still kind of similar to the rest
i think each team have slight difference in how they play but not using pnr is kind of a huge difference imo.
I know some guys that shoot 3-pt floaters. They’re all 5’5” or shorter and they only shoot it maybe once or twice during pickup, but you really don’t see it coming and the fact they swish it really pisses you off
I tried to resist as much as I could but I think time has come to move the line further, corners also a bit
or allow defense to play defense.
@ThinkingBasketball
You have to do a breakdown on the game from last night, between OKC & CLE. PLEASE.
0:18 Teams are shooting more threes "... because teams are developing strategies that are making offences harder to stop." Is that what you meant to say...?
what makes you say so?
@@forte2337
I didn't say so... I asked so.
one of the best vids analyzing why there are more threes. but again, i dont think the only reason is the change in the offense to maximise it, there is also a factor of lack of defensive skill that goes into why a lot more three opportunities are viable. not just on the ball, but especially off ball.
Bring back handchecking and the number of 3s will go down. But the NBA has looked into that and does not want lower scoring games.
🧢
@@davidfebreeze428you’d be allowed to play tighter defense if 3 seconds and hand checking got removed.
@@ry_an. Watch some old games and see all the crazy handchecking that went on for yourself
lol Adam sliver soft sled doesn’t want defense at all
@@ry_an.removing defensive 3 seconds incentivizes jumpshooting
making hand checking rules more lenient for defenders would be interesting though
Thanks, this is a great stroll through history and evolution of the three ball game.
I think Bird deserves credit for being the inventor of the one legged three. Multiple clips of him doing it
Me and Thinking Basketball posting on the same day? It must be magic
I bet u won’t even get 10 likes
Boooooooooooooo
Alien Romulus victim tier? 😂
Nobody watching your video pal
Man, love your channel and love your dog !
38k of his 40k pts are from uncalled travels, wardoffs, shoulder tackles to the rim and his finishing move the dancing traveling tornado
when does this video even mention lebron??? he's really living rent free in your head isn't he
16:11 MJ/Kobe type fadeaways from three would be crazy. Idk if that would be crazy in a good way or crazy in a bad way, but it would be crazy.