Michigan 2050 Climate Forecast: 2023 Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ธ.ค. 2023
- Many people promote Michigan as a climate haven, let's check out the projections in the latest federal climate report, see how that squares up.
The new projections for Michigan are showing some real differences from the last report. This video contains detailed information about changes to the winters, where we expect to see the biggest storms, and the projected increased risks around serious wildfire. The challenges are serious, but I would not count Michigan out. People looking for a destination with mild winters should check out this unexpected outlook.
Head over to the NCA5 yourself to check out the source material:
nca2023.globalchange.gov/ - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
These videos are the perfect antidote to my generalized anxiety over a global warming apocalypse. Thank you for your pragmatic, realistic and hopeful insights.
@TheKSBot oh, that's awesome! You are so welcome
Michigan resident here, what these maps show seems to match my personal experiences, summers have been about the same but winters have gotten considerably wetter, warmer, and later, with our real winter not coming until mid January where it used to start in early December.
@claytonhalligan2067, thanks for sharing your observations- over in Iowa we're also experiencing that winter delay. It's so weird that kids can now basically plan on Halloween without coats. We used to design around the fact that Halloween was going to be super cold!
This makes me so sad. I’ll miss winter and fall. Looks like our fall traditions won’t be a thing anymore either, if orchards can’t exist. This is so disappointing.
@aliciavasseli5928 apologies for this slow reply, your comment just came up.
It is very sad. So many of us, when we think of Michigan we think of those beautiful traditional winters, the snow and the fall traditions. When I saw these figures for the first time I felt so sad for all the farmers and their fruit orchards. I'm so sorry to share this sad news, but it's important to know, and Michigan is putting a lot of resources into preparing for the change. There will be a lot to mourn, but living things will grow even in these projected conditions. Having an idea of what to expect will help us get the right new trees planted. Michigan's fruit growers are working really hard to adapt.
I waited for this with all the anticipation of an 8-year-old eyeballing the bicycle-shaped present under the tree. Then I made my aging parents in Michigan sit down and watch it at the dinner table. Thank you for this!
I appreciate the point made about water quality. I feel it's a factor people don't initially examine closely when considering these Great Lakes 'havens' as destinations, since the health of the entire region depends on the free flow of fresh water through the St. Lawrence.
Human insults like pollutants, algal blooms & ag runoff (Toledo crisis of 2014), or deregulation and privatization (Nestle 2018) as the region feels the pressure to further monetize the waterway will only increase as we move towards midcentury, and affect all life relying on the lakes.
Definitely something to build an awareness of if you, The Viewer, are considering a move into the region and its fray.
@aaronmustamaa1487 thank you for this comment- when I hear people are using these videos to have family conversations, I am so happy. That's exactly why I wanted to do this project, to give people those kind of tools.
The water situation in MI is pretty critical for action. There are a lot of people who care but the corporate pressure is very strong. I hope it can be turned the right way, it's so important for us all.
I'm already hearing a lot of people talk about the absence of snow.
Coming from Texas, when we talk about changes in plant habitat, I remember what Texans called "Tree-pocalypse" last winter (2022-23). The trees couldn't handle the extreme winter weather, and after a dry summer, they just snapped all over Texas, at least in central TX. The property damage was extensive, and some people may have been harmed as well (I don't have the info on injuries and casualties). We'll need to watch out for that here in Michigan.
I still see Michigan as a climate destination, and the warmer temperatures is good news for those of us coming from the south. I have already heard locals complaining about the hot summer days, so I know they're feeling the change. The wildfire risk was unexpected.
Thank you for this update.
That's so sad to hear about the trees in Texas. My relatives up in the Sierras in CA had similar levels of tree damage last winter. The property damage was incredible.
Plenty of people lost vehicles and equipment in outbuildings that were crushed. It continues to strike me as strange that these aren't the events we hear about on the news- mass tree death should be major news!! But so it goes.
On the bright side, I think as early climate migrants like you and your family have a lot of potential to get Midwesterners aware of these challenges that have already hit the west. People believe this stuff differently when it comes from a trusted first-hand account. Especially in Michigan, where conditions look rough for trees, managing the landscape is going to be so important for cultivating resilience.
Texan here (San Antonio) and my family is considering moving to MI if we can afford it. Specifically the SE area of the state, maybe around Ann Arbor. This is a little out of pocket, but have you noticed anything in terms of tick populations? My family is quite outdoorsy and that's always been a worry for us...
When the AMOC collapses, how will this change the 2050 forecast? Or is it already figured in?
@brimstonebull great question- and how much does it suck that we are seriously looking at when, not if? It's been a wild five years... NCA5 models straight RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, so this isn't modeling for AMOC collapse. I did a little digging on AMOC for North America... there isn't as high of quality modeling out there that I've found yet. So far, everything I've found indicates that if you're within about 300 miles of the Great Lakes, that zone looks broadly survivable. Milder winters, tolerable type conditions.
Another great video. Michigan sounds promising as the predictions seem to lean towards less snowy winters. Wildfire risk is scary, but that’s a risk in many places around the country. I understand your warnings about hotter humid summers above 95F and the crop challenges. But living in the southwest it seems like a reasonable risk compared to our arid climate. There is no perfect place so one has to weigh the benefits and what works for them.
Thanks! And I agree, it's all about what people are looking for. This is a higher-change outlook for Michigan than I think many people would like to see, but even so, it's looking like a pretty safe place overall.
@@AmericanResiliencyWhat do you think about potential for unhealthy ozone levels and air quality?
@farhanmalik6576 I was disappointed not to see this updated substantially in the NCA5. The NCA4 has an ozone and air quality projection figure in the Midwest chapter- you can still download the old report. The closest to an air quality update in the NCA5 is a figure showing where pollen counts are anticipated to increase. As I recall, Michigan was projected to show an upward trend.
@@AmericanResiliency Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. Your videos are great.
@farhanmalik6576 thanks- glad you're enjoying them!
Thank you for this video. I currently live in Georgia but my family is seriously considering moving to Michigan. We've been following the climate forecasts for a few years and so far, that seems like the safest place for future generations.
I think if you have a good idea of the groundwater situation- which is very local in Michigan- you could definitely find a good, safe, destination there.
Thanks you for this outlook Dr Emily, I’ve shared it! I’d like to suggest checking out Joe Brewer’s channel and the recent Earth Regenerator’s Design School update for 2024- they are really committed to bio regional regeneration in some of these destination locations, including the Great Lakes. It’s real regeneration and adaptation work with the land and water.
Oh cool! I will check that out. I was active on the Earth Regenerators forum back in 2020, I met people who really supported me during the first stages of founding AR, and who are dear friends to this day!
Joe Brewer's bioregional regenerative approach is so important and there are a lot of wonderful people who are hearing the call. A lot of the work I do, I hope I can completement that bioregional approach by helping find the outlines of our emerging bioregions. If we know how things are likely to shift, it makes it much more possible to encourage the growth of rich, biodiverse landscapes that will survive the change.
Thanks Emily! I’m not at all surprised you are friends with some Earth Regenerators people. Makes perfect sense! I just see so clearly that it’s time to work with the land, for so many deep reasons, it would be impossible to cover in a comment! Where I am in upstate NY is a prime example of a region that would be perfect for regeneration and adaptation work.
@Corrie-fd9ww upstate NY is so important for regenerative work! Really important species migration pathways forming up in the area, and some good hope for forest health.
I'm working my way over there to get you the local update- drafting Ohio today.
Do you think tornados will become more frequent in the Detriot area?
@JoshThomas9898 I made this video with research on where tornado tracks are likely to shift- but I don't remember the figures well enough to answer your question off the top of my head (sorry!). The video's pretty short though and the paper is in the video description:
th-cam.com/video/tTa5qdFPArE/w-d-xo.html
The biodiversity is already struggling with out snow here in the thumb, especially our native wild berries and flowers... and our lack of winter freezes is causing sink holes because of all our sand from the glacier deposits... I haven't seen ice on the lakes in multiple years.
@ziggy5369 I would believe it. The changes projected are so intense and when I was outside of Detroit people often told me how much the intensity of storms had already increased and how much the winters have changed. I could not help but think of how fast that would hurt the sort of specialized insects that are paired with native berries and flowers... and invasive buckthorn was just everywhere. For a person who is aware of biodiversity, who cares about biodiversity, the Michigan outlook is very difficult.
looking forward to the CT forecast. noticing a lot of fallen or dying trees where i live
When I was doing some overview work, I became quite concerned about the northeast- the projections look different in a couple of factors than how they did in the NCA4. I'll do my best to bring you a clear story.
I know you have probably addressed this many times, but where do you personally recommend? I'm moving from Texas, was planning on going to Michigan specifically for climate change, but we're pretty open, especially if the cost of living is on the lower side, which was another pro for Michigan.
Particularly as someone who plans on establishing a massive food forest/orchard as soon as I land up there, wherever there is.
@pineywoodsuburbanhomestead4988 honestly I think there are lots of good places. If you have a calling towards Michigan there's a great history for forest agriculture there- just keep an eye on the projected changes in plant hardiness zone, a lot of the traditionally productive cultivars won't be so suitable even in the pretty near future. When you think about the life of a tree. There are lots of new trees and new types of trees needing to be planted in Michigan by folks like you.
Just fyi, plant hardiness zones are looking a little bit more stable west of the great lakes.
@@pineywoodsurbanhomestead4988 Keep me posted on your food forest/orchard. That's our dream, too, to be able to start something like that.
I live in Michigan and would like to apologize for the racism you experienced. There is no excuse for it.
Love your videos. Thank you for your honesty and explaining things. I have been following climate change for about 10 years.
It is bad and so many people don't seem to have a clue. It's nice to hear what to expect in a calm no nonsense manner.
@MicheleTuer thank you, I do honestly appreciate that. I don't assume everyone in that area holds such prejudice. Wishing you & yours all the best
You mentioned a detroit-windsor land bridge, as someone who lives in the area, what are you referring to? as of right now the two cities are separated by the Detroit river. Thanks for sharing this information in an easy to understand way, these videos have been very helpful to me trying to know what to expect in the coming years.
@clownfishbehindtherock, I should have been more clear. When I talk about it as a bridge, it is more a biodiversity corridor. There are a lot of species that can get over the river that could not cross a wider water, especially in the wildlife refuge:
www.fws.gov/refuge/detroit-river/about-us
Many, many species are moving over this island-y bit of the river. The pressure to move through that area is enormous and increasing! The wildlife refuge protected area is pretty big, but it's right in the metro area and there is a need for more habitat on both sides of the border-
@@AmericanResiliency thanks for the clarification! I agree more habitat is needed. Good news from the Canadian side, about 4-450acres of urban natural parks is could soon be under federal protection.
@clownfishbehindtherock awesome!
18:35
This is just my experience, but I've lived a lot of places and I never experienced a culture of racism as bad as in the suburbs of Detroit.
I've had some people tell me it's especially bad there and other parts of the state aren't like that, but I don't know personally.
@@AmericanResiliency I spent 10 years in the Detroit suburbs and 20 years split between Grand Rapids and the Keweenaw Peninsula. The racism around Detroit is a different breed. The race riots and subsequent white flight from Detroit created scars that are seriously long-lasting. Red lining in many forms has only started to really improve in the last ~10 years. That being said the lack of homogeneity gives the Detroit area its strength of character in my opinion. A korean-americans perspective*
@@JSRoys appreciate your perspective & insight on this