The amount of work you put in your videos is to be commended sir. This has been my go-to channel to fully understand the reasoning behind these schools jumping from conference to conference. This is easily the most slept-on channel on TH-cam.
Best financial, media and scenario analysis on realignment out. Well done! I Would love to see you run ASU or 1-2 ACC schools as next additions. Pulling an ACC team might help the PAC schools get their minds right.
Very thoughtful and informative as always. Your analysis does depend on an assumption about the Pac-12 media contracts, which may or may not prove correct. If your assumption is correct it conclusively demonstrates the brilliance of Commissioner Bowlsby and the Big XII presidents in adding UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and BYU, and the utter stupidity of Commissioner Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 presidents in failing to add SDSU, SMU, and other schools having value for media. I concur with you that these projected changes are not in the best interests of college football, and in my view TV, is ruining a great game.
This is the video I’ve been waiting for ever since the announcement. Love the quality in-depth research without the fluff of the mainstream thinkpieces
Fantastic analysis! My Big 10 hot take is Texas A&M, FSU, ND, and GT are the who the Big 10 should look at. Cal, Stanford, and Duke at reduced shares to lure ND in the next round of realignment. Throw in UNC while we're at it if it means dissolving the ACC. They end up with 22 shares to split among 24 schools. Everyone is happy. My SEC hot take is Clemson, Miami, Virginia, NC St, WVU, TXTech, OKState. Solidify the southeast with schools that fit the culture. Also brings back several important rivalries. They lose TAMU since they're unhappy with the SEC and Texas. TAMU is also AAU so it makes sense. More money than Big 12 so those schools are happy. 22 schools and everyone is happy. May go up to 24 with more from the Big 12 at partial shares. and lastly, my Big XII(XX) hot take is Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, VT, AU, ASU, UU, CO, UO, UW, and SDSU. Assuming they lose WVU, TXTech, OKState and SEC loses TAMU. Allows to dissolve the ACC and most schools are happy. BC and WF are left out in the cold, but they can be invited in with USF and Uconn if they decide to go to 24. May need Fresno St and Memphis to get up to 24 if the SEC poaches more. Essentially you have the Academics conference, the Football heave conference, and the Basketball/The rest conference to round out 3 conferences of 24.
Well done. One of the best college realignment videos I have watched. If Oregan and Washington stay in the Pac12 in this cycle, would their brands be valued and be as attractive in the next cycle for the Big10? The soon-to-be, no-see'em Pac12 TV deal appears to offer conference exposure to a very limited audience, which would impact the recruitment of 4 and 5-star players. And if the conference adds group of 5 schools, would the Pac12 remain a power conference or be relegated? 🤔
Why did you credit both the PAC and the Big XII with the Denver TV market after realignment when they will not have a member in Colorado? See 1:35 of video.
Not many students from Texas go to Colorado because Colorado isn't thought about. Denver is nice, skiing is amazing, but the majority of football players aren't interested in either, and they don't see Colorado on TV. NOW they will and with Coach Price, it will become an option. The same with Arizona.
Great info! Nicely depicting the drivers and rationale for each school's potential actions/outcomes... One thing missing is the potential for UConn going to the Big12. I think they're in the mix and could be in as oppposed to ASU and Utah, which might not even want to go to the Big12 because they have aversions to that conference and/or consider themselves options for the Big10 one day (I'm not convinced that's their ultimate resting spot, though). Plus Yormark and some of the Big12 schools (WV, Cincinnati and UCF) want another eastern school and others want to further bolster BB (Kansas, Baylor, etc.). Will be interesting!!!
This is amazing. I’ve been saying since realignment started that the next television contracts would be more about potential viewership and less about on field performance. It’s the reason Texas was valued even though they haven’t done anything on the field in a decade. If Arizona goes to the Big 12, I don’t think Washington or Oregon have a choice. The television market falls apart. San Diego St and SMU are not going to move the needle for the networks. If the PAC 12 was struggling to get 20 million, I think 15 million might be the ceiling if Arizona leaves. Great information and well presented.
You should do an analysis on the Pac-6 scenario where they add G5 schools. I have a different take where I think the remaining 6 Pac-12 schools would need to add 6 G5 schools, and they would all have to be Mountain West programs. Why? Because what the Pac-12 will need is the MW's linear TV slots on CBS/FOX networks. In order to break up the MW to not have any massive $34m exits fees and to break their TV contracts with CBS/FOX in order to open up the linear slots for the Pac-12 they need a majority of the MW schools to agree to leave the conference. With 11 full members of the MW, 6 schools are necessary for a majority vote. The 6 schools: San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Boise State, UNLV, and Air Force. You throw in a streaming deal with Amazon with a Friday night and/or Saturday game with the NFL's Thursday Night Football as its advertising platform now you're looking at a solidly Power 5 conference through the rest of this cycle. The G5 schools getting partial shares would be fine for the rest of this cycle as long as its more than their current MW revenue share, which it likely would be.
Great video! I do think if Yormark starts pulling the trigger on the 4C4 schools rapid fire, and the Big Ten is still either not interested in West Coast expansion (wanting to settle USC/UCLA in first), or is sitting around with the change in commissioner, Oregon and Washington panic move to the Big 12 considering they will get full shares?
Unfortunately a half-share in B1G -- even 1-5 years from now -- is worth more to Oregon/Washington than a full share in XII. He entertains that scenario and concludes Ore/Wash are better off waiting in Pac.
For spot #16, I would prefer SDSU or UConn over ASU since both extend Yormark's desired footprint and basketball missions. But money-now always talks more!!
@GhostTrueCapitalist It has to be a P5. I don't know why folks do not get that for the Big 12. Current P5's get a full share right now. UConn we want, but that is for a later basketball negotiation to jn rease value, not here yet.
Great video. My only observation is that EVERYONE knows that Stanford/Cal/Oregon/Washington are waiting for B1G bids, so it doesn't matter if it's this cycle or the next, they are GONE. Why would the MW or AAC schools leave knowing this? WAZZU & Oregon St. destiny is in the MW, sadly.
Cal is not getting into the B1G, and Stanford only gets in if Notre Dame also goes to the B1G, which I don't think they are interested given their current incredibly lucrative agreement with NBC.
Enjoyed your review. You left out for Stanford and Cal #20 market of Sacramento/Modesto/Staton. Couple that with San Fran, Oakland and San Jose it’s a more valuable Meds market than Washington/Oregon combo. I suspect B1G puts a larger priority on Academics and is interested in luring Notre Dame (Stanford is better cheddar)
@@nashmonti120 disagree. It’s an incredibly targeted audience. Media buyers know exactly what they get with PAC Teams (higher disposable income) and the ‘after dark’ window (avid colleges football fans {see gamblers}. The majority of NFL bets are placed the night before (see liquor) and college and NFL football have the highest crossover of all sports. Back to the new $100 and growing new business model “on-line gambling” this is a steal for advertisers and reaching their target demographic. Not all GRPs (Gross Rating Points) are valued the same. Also, great window to drive tune-in for Sunday NFL line-up.
B1G is not going to add anyone unless they can get ND. ND isn't going to join a conference for football (they are members of ACC for all other sports), until they are forced to. ASU and Utah both want to stay in the PACX. Oregon, Washington, and Utah think they will get the automatic playoff bid, but it is only guaranteed for 2024 and 2025. Big XII Comish is a Basketball guy and is still learning Football My guess is that he is trying to build a good Football Conference and a great Basketball Conference. Dominate the College Basketball Market and have an entertaining Football product maybe highlight your Baseball, Softball, to round out the school year.
Yeap...and he has said openly he wants to negotiate bball tv rights seperate from fball. With KU, BAYLOR, AZ, UCONN, KSU, TECH ETC he will be able to do that. And if the ACC crumbles in a few years some of those bball schools might want to join.
Great video as always! But if I remember correctly you used to have Stanford and Cal going to the B1G. So I was just curious what changed your mind. Thanks.
UW & UO aren’t staying behind in the PAC under any circumstances without a linear tv partner in the deal … which there is none and is why CO left. There is NO linear partner in discussions right now with the PAC. It’s 100% Apple at around $27M … which after production costs would be even less getting distributed. It’s a mess. And with some schools leaving that media deal is just going to worse to out together
BYU does not have the Salt Lake City media market. BYU shunned by most in that market. BYU only has a subset of that market which is the provo-orem metropolitan area
![[TH] 2024 PMSL SEA W1D5 | Fall | เก็บแต้มของจริง คือวันนี้](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/EciIAlCXg5k/mqdefault.jpg)
The amount of work you put in your videos is to be commended sir. This has been my go-to channel to fully understand the reasoning behind these schools jumping from conference to conference. This is easily the most slept-on channel on TH-cam.
Dropping that Kliavkoff quote just days after the Big 12 poached Colorado from the Pac-12 was SAVAGE! 💀☠️
Absolutely love it! Great job.
Best financial, media and scenario analysis on realignment out. Well done! I Would love to see you run ASU or 1-2 ACC schools as next additions. Pulling an ACC team might help the PAC schools get their minds right.
As a CU alum it's a move that had to be made. $32 million and familiarity. We were more than patient with the Pac.
Incredible work and effort by this young man.
I subscribed, and I don't subscribe to stuff very often. Thanks for all the geeky numbers!
Very thoughtful and informative as always. Your analysis does depend on an assumption about the Pac-12 media contracts, which may or may not prove correct. If your assumption is correct it conclusively demonstrates the brilliance of Commissioner Bowlsby and the Big XII presidents in adding UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and BYU, and the utter stupidity of Commissioner Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 presidents in failing to add SDSU, SMU, and other schools having value for media.
I concur with you that these projected changes are not in the best interests of college football, and in my view TV, is ruining a great game.
This is great. Thanks. Looking forward to an analysis on current ACC teams and their perspective on joining the B10/SEC.
This is the video I’ve been waiting for ever since the announcement. Love the quality in-depth research without the fluff of the mainstream thinkpieces
Great summary! Organized and insightful. We’ll see what happens.
Appreciate all the hard work. It was a great video way back when in terms of Big 12 expansion in 2021!
@LockedOnOklahomaState Here you go.
Fantastic analysis!
My Big 10 hot take is Texas A&M, FSU, ND, and GT are the who the Big 10 should look at. Cal, Stanford, and Duke at reduced shares to lure ND in the next round of realignment. Throw in UNC while we're at it if it means dissolving the ACC. They end up with 22 shares to split among 24 schools. Everyone is happy.
My SEC hot take is Clemson, Miami, Virginia, NC St, WVU, TXTech, OKState. Solidify the southeast with schools that fit the culture. Also brings back several important rivalries. They lose TAMU since they're unhappy with the SEC and Texas. TAMU is also AAU so it makes sense. More money than Big 12 so those schools are happy. 22 schools and everyone is happy. May go up to 24 with more from the Big 12 at partial shares.
and lastly, my Big XII(XX) hot take is Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, VT, AU, ASU, UU, CO, UO, UW, and SDSU. Assuming they lose WVU, TXTech, OKState and SEC loses TAMU. Allows to dissolve the ACC and most schools are happy. BC and WF are left out in the cold, but they can be invited in with USF and Uconn if they decide to go to 24. May need Fresno St and Memphis to get up to 24 if the SEC poaches more.
Essentially you have the Academics conference, the Football heave conference, and the Basketball/The rest conference to round out 3 conferences of 24.
Well done. One of the best college realignment videos I have watched. If Oregan and Washington stay in the Pac12 in this cycle, would their brands be valued and be as attractive in the next cycle for the Big10? The soon-to-be, no-see'em Pac12 TV deal appears to offer conference exposure to a very limited audience, which would impact the recruitment of 4 and 5-star players. And if the conference adds group of 5 schools, would the Pac12 remain a power conference or be relegated? 🤔
Why did you credit both the PAC and the Big XII with the Denver TV market after realignment when they will not have a member in Colorado? See 1:35 of video.
Good catch. I just missed it.
Not many students from Texas go to Colorado because Colorado isn't thought about. Denver is nice, skiing is amazing, but the majority of football players aren't interested in either, and they don't see Colorado on TV. NOW they will and with Coach Price, it will become an option. The same with Arizona.
Great information 👍
If I am the XII. I want Arizona to get to 14. Then sit it out and wait. Then try and poach Georgia Tech and Miami.
Great info! Nicely depicting the drivers and rationale for each school's potential actions/outcomes... One thing missing is the potential for UConn going to the Big12. I think they're in the mix and could be in as oppposed to ASU and Utah, which might not even want to go to the Big12 because they have aversions to that conference and/or consider themselves options for the Big10 one day (I'm not convinced that's their ultimate resting spot, though). Plus Yormark and some of the Big12 schools (WV, Cincinnati and UCF) want another eastern school and others want to further bolster BB (Kansas, Baylor, etc.). Will be interesting!!!
This is amazing. I’ve been saying since realignment started that the next television contracts would be more about potential viewership and less about on field performance. It’s the reason Texas was valued even though they haven’t done anything on the field in a decade. If Arizona goes to the Big 12, I don’t think Washington or Oregon have a choice. The television market falls apart. San Diego St and SMU are not going to move the needle for the networks. If the PAC 12 was struggling to get 20 million, I think 15 million might be the ceiling if Arizona leaves.
Great information and well presented.
I feel strange hearing a team leaving a conference and not having to pay a exit fee. The PAC potentially hurt themselves
B12 wants AZ #14 and then Uconn #15 to help prepare for the eventual bball tv rights split from fball and then ASU for #16.
Cool comparisons and numbers presented here. Big 12 is killing it.
I disagree on not having Houston already, the Texas teams left and OSU have alumni in Houston.
Great job! Really appreciate the insight, man. Keep it up, I think you can make the big time!
You should do an analysis on the Pac-6 scenario where they add G5 schools. I have a different take where I think the remaining 6 Pac-12 schools would need to add 6 G5 schools, and they would all have to be Mountain West programs. Why? Because what the Pac-12 will need is the MW's linear TV slots on CBS/FOX networks. In order to break up the MW to not have any massive $34m exits fees and to break their TV contracts with CBS/FOX in order to open up the linear slots for the Pac-12 they need a majority of the MW schools to agree to leave the conference. With 11 full members of the MW, 6 schools are necessary for a majority vote. The 6 schools: San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Boise State, UNLV, and Air Force. You throw in a streaming deal with Amazon with a Friday night and/or Saturday game with the NFL's Thursday Night Football as its advertising platform now you're looking at a solidly Power 5 conference through the rest of this cycle. The G5 schools getting partial shares would be fine for the rest of this cycle as long as its more than their current MW revenue share, which it likely would be.
Great video! I do think if Yormark starts pulling the trigger on the 4C4 schools rapid fire, and the Big Ten is still either not interested in West Coast expansion (wanting to settle USC/UCLA in first), or is sitting around with the change in commissioner, Oregon and Washington panic move to the Big 12 considering they will get full shares?
Unfortunately a half-share in B1G -- even 1-5 years from now -- is worth more to Oregon/Washington than a full share in XII. He entertains that scenario and concludes Ore/Wash are better off waiting in Pac.
@chrispon7004 not true.
Not to mention that Brett stated the Oregon Washington culture is not a fit for the Big13. It would be Texas 2.0.
Bro, how are you not more mainstream at this point?
You should be running espn’s college division.
I will never understand how his channel is so small and unknown.
For spot #16, I would prefer SDSU or UConn over ASU since both extend Yormark's desired footprint and basketball missions. But money-now always talks more!!
IF ASU doesn't follow Arizona. That's the only issue.
@GhostTrueCapitalist It has to be a P5. I don't know why folks do not get that for the Big 12. Current P5's get a full share right now. UConn we want, but that is for a later basketball negotiation to jn rease value, not here yet.
Great video. My only observation is that EVERYONE knows that Stanford/Cal/Oregon/Washington are waiting for B1G bids, so it doesn't matter if it's this cycle or the next, they are GONE. Why would the MW or AAC schools leave knowing this?
WAZZU & Oregon St. destiny is in the MW, sadly.
Cal is not getting into the B1G, and Stanford only gets in if Notre Dame also goes to the B1G, which I don't think they are interested given their current incredibly lucrative agreement with NBC.
Enjoyed your review. You left out for Stanford and Cal #20 market of Sacramento/Modesto/Staton. Couple that with San Fran, Oakland and San Jose it’s a more valuable Meds market than Washington/Oregon combo. I suspect B1G puts a larger priority on Academics and is interested in luring Notre Dame (Stanford is better cheddar)
It’s only valuable if people watch it and they don’t, that’s why they weren’t poached along with USC/UCLA
@@nashmonti120 disagree. It’s an incredibly targeted audience. Media buyers know exactly what they get with PAC Teams (higher disposable income) and the ‘after dark’ window (avid colleges football fans {see gamblers}. The majority of NFL bets are placed the night before (see liquor) and college and NFL football have the highest crossover of all sports. Back to the new $100 and growing new business model “on-line gambling” this is a steal for advertisers and reaching their target demographic. Not all GRPs (Gross Rating Points) are valued the same. Also, great window to drive tune-in for Sunday NFL line-up.
Hey are you going to do your conference realignment yearly prediction like you done the last 2 years?
B1G is not going to add anyone unless they can get ND. ND isn't going to join a conference for football (they are members of ACC for all other sports), until they are forced to. ASU and Utah both want to stay in the PACX. Oregon, Washington, and Utah think they will get the automatic playoff bid, but it is only guaranteed for 2024 and 2025.
Big XII Comish is a Basketball guy and is still learning Football My guess is that he is trying to build a good Football Conference and a great Basketball Conference. Dominate the College Basketball Market and have an entertaining Football product maybe highlight your Baseball, Softball, to round out the school year.
Yeap...and he has said openly he wants to negotiate bball tv rights seperate from fball. With KU, BAYLOR, AZ, UCONN, KSU, TECH ETC he will be able to do that. And if the ACC crumbles in a few years some of those bball schools might want to join.
Good video 😊
Great video as always! But if I remember correctly you used to have Stanford and Cal going to the B1G. So I was just curious what changed your mind. Thanks.
Media partners not paying for it. Breakeven point for a new member has gotten so high, I overestimated membership’s willingness to go to 24.
@@d1_360 Thanks for the answer. Makes sense. As I said great video!
May I ask why you used Shanghai over USA news?
UW & UO aren’t staying behind in the PAC under any circumstances without a linear tv partner in the deal … which there is none and is why CO left. There is NO linear partner in discussions right now with the PAC. It’s 100% Apple at around $27M … which after production costs would be even less getting distributed. It’s a mess. And with some schools leaving that media deal is just going to worse to out together
31.7 is the base...theyll probably make 50 million.
They made between 42-45 million with a base pay of 20-22 million in 2022
I love the video keep up the work!!
Only thing is Putting West Virginia as the Pitt metro is a bit of a stretch imo
Not metro.. media market. Morgantown is in Pittsburghs media market.
BYU does not have the Salt Lake City media market. BYU shunned by most in that market. BYU only has a subset of that market which is the provo-orem metropolitan area
Do you have a twitter account or other social media that I can follow?