Former TESLA EMPLOYEE Predicts TSLA Stock Price Through 2035
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ธ.ค. 2021
- DISCLAIMER:
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL EXPERT. ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
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Link to Pricing Model:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
Link to Reddit Threads:
/ my_revised_again_model...
I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
www.farzadmesbahi.com
www.linkedin.com/in/farzadmesbahi
Twitter @farzyness
Timestamps below
00:00 Disclaimer
00:07 Introduction
01:53 Methodology
04:20 Transportation
11:36 Energy
17:42 Artificial Intelligence
27:35 Outsourcing
28:54 Methodology Wrap Up
29:40 Price Target Prediction in 2035
32:34 Yearly Price Target Prediction
34:25 Conclusion - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
I had no idea what the big deal was with Tesla. I always thought of them as a small automotive company trying to edge in to the electric market that had been continuously eluding the car giants in the US... until I bought a Model 3 in 2018 and suddenly I realized that this was a complete game changer and would be the future of what cars should be. Then I immediately started buying stock. lol
But it's important to note that most people out there are like me and won't understand it until they get in one. As an investor, the more research I did the more I saw they had not even scratched the surface of what they're trying to accomplish yet, and they've never even been slightly secret about it. That's what's crazy. You know what else is crazy? I can drive my car remotely with my phone to me. What the heck??
Tesla is a volcano that hasn't erupted yet.
Great stuff, btw. Thanks for making the video!
Agreed 100%! The potential seems limitless. Thanks for watching!
It’s as simple as first principles. Always go back to it with any problem or question. Keep common sense in every equation every time. Humans are complicated with our egos, patience levels, anger, jealously, fatigue, hormones, health/energy, greed, lack of confidence and self worth, etc etc. it’s a very long list.. I can’t find a better story to follow so keep the insight coming. Thank you! God’s speed to you and to TESLA!!!
I completely agree with you. You have to experience tesla car first to understand the value. It is very well made and super safe car ever seen. I honestly think car value is very cheap for its qualities
You hit the nail on the head by saying, "Tesla is a volcano that hasn't erupted yet". I drove a model 3 performance last weekend and WOW!!!
Ha Ha! I bought Tesla (stock) at $32 so I've been following it thru the years. With recent stock split It's now 15,000% I hate to drive so waiting for AV but not gonna trust it to a "carmaker" - they can't even develop navigation. Bet on the future.
Well done Farzad!
Your model was very easy to follow, clean, and to the point.
Congratulations on your 4 years at Tesla!
Your channel is going to hit exponential growth. Subscribed!
We really appreciate all your effort putting together this video. Great job. Keep it up. Thank you.
Excellent video, glad to see you’ve got your setup all sorted :) Really interesting content, well structured and articulated - looking forward to watching more!!
Thanks so much! Wife helped me out a ton, but we still got some work to do!
Great edit, even better content
YT isn't easy for everyone but here you are killing it
Great insight 👍,
Since 2014, I have been a Tesla investor, customer, and believer in Elon Musk (ever since his 60min interview). I am also a retired engineer, all thanks to Tesla.
Please continue your good work. 👍
Really enjoying your content Farzad. With you coming from being a tesla employee you bring a breath of fresh air to the existing already excellent teslas youtube community. Keep the info coming young man.
You make this estimate and breakdown look so easy, with the advantage of seeing the process and being inside... keep it up!!!
Can see your channel doing really well Farzad. Subscribed. Great content.
Very kind! Thank you!
Thank you for putting this together -- one of my all-time favorites that you've put together so far. Keep rocking it out!
Congrats on the steep incline in subscribers. Came over here from Solving the money problem channel. In my opinion manufacturing and innovation are the best drivers of the succes of Tesla and where they lighthearted ahead of legacy automakers and the other EV startups. Thanks for adding your voice to the channels that tried to deep dive into all things Tesla.
I'm waiting for AV since I hate to drive but won't buy from the "legacy" car makers - they can't even develop a decent navigation system.
Loving this channel already, you bring a fresh perspective among all the TSLA analysts on YT.
Thanks so much!
Loving this channel. Keep 'em coming!
You are amazing with your video. So clear and easy to understand. Just subscribed and looking forward to seeing more of you. 👍
Proud to be an early subscriber, I’m sure your channel will get MUCH bigger
Thanks so much!
Very thoughtful presentation, on of the most serious takes on Tesla's future
This is fantastic work! Everything is well thought out and is an exciting way to look at the future of Tesla! I especially like the vision of the Tesla bot you have. I think the Tesla bots will start at a much higher price and be purchased by large companies and governments. Then as production increases the price will drop so smaller and smaller companies can purchase them and finally low enough that individuals can purchase them (10k). I also see an additional revenue stream for Tesla involving insurance and financing. Cars, robots, and other things will need financing and insurance.
I liked and subscribed!
Great way of thinking about the Bot! Thanks for watching!
Thanks and appreciate your insight and valuable information!
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and your Analysis, Farzad! Glad you decided to keep on doing videos! This is great! By the way, Steven from the channel “Solving the money problem” is doing his (mostly fun) but also very informative videos for about 2 years now and he can look back to multiple thousands dollars income per month now solely from his TH-cam channel. I’m glad I can count myself to your first thousand subscribers, yeah! 🙌 Many thanks again and many greetings from Switzerland! ✌️
By the way, have you thought of a Gigafactory itself as a product? Including processes, robots and even the organization rules, like Apps with KPIs for self organizing the factory? They might want to give it a name and license it …
Thanks so much for the support!
Yes I have, and the potential here is insane. I'll need to bake this into my model at some point.
The machine to that builds the machine AS A PRODUCT. Nice, Rusty!
Planning to visit Switzerland (Zurich, Kandersteg) in June 2022, btw.
Simply grateful for you video 👍
Thanks for sharing! It takes so much effort to start a channel and keep adding content. You have a great perspective. Thanks for doing this!
Greatly appreciated! It's been very fun. Thanks for watching!
We appreciate you and coming through as you said you would
My pleasure!
Great video. I believe your price target is on point! Thanks for sharing.
Great insights into Tesla, this is what the Tesla community on TH-cam need! Thanks for making these videos. Some more examples of your work at Tesla would be great
Fantastic debut and good luck in your journey. Great content 😀
Thanks a bunch!
Where have you been? Concise, clear, and to the point. Definitely keep making more videos. Thank you for your hard work.
Thanks so much!
[He's been working for Tesla!]
Excellent break down by each business category. Thank you, Farzad for sharing the content.
Thanks Alan!
I’m glad I found your channel ❤️
Good luck, farzaad
I came straight from Solving The Money Problem. You now have a new subscriber. Keep up the great work.
I was super happy with your video..and happy to see you’re going to do more..💕
Thanks so much!
I’m going to push back on the 100M / year model; if FSD is operational, there’s no way most of the lower and even middle class will be buying cars vs renting/paying per ride.
Percentage wise, I bet that more than 40% of the cars on the road will be teslas though, there will just not be as much of a need for personal car(s). Great video by the way!!!
Isn't there a base model Tesla coming? 25k plus 10k FSD.
Thank you for your work in building a better future for us all!
Came here after seeing you on Solving the Money Problem's video (Steven Mark Ryan) Amazing content. Loved your insights. Please keep reviewing your price targets as time goes on. Thank you for making this video.
Thanks for the info, just subscribed
I - JUST - LOVE - YOU SHARING YOUR EXPERIENCE WITH US
Great pro and con analysis on tesla ...good insight
Tks and good luck w your new channel
Much appreciated!
I'm buzzing after that video Thanks for taking the time to share with us. Peace
Thanks for watching!
Thank you for this Video. Made my conviction more firm. All the best!
Thank you Farzad!!
Agree, tnx x the good content 👍, greetings from 🇨🇭
Great job. Keep up your good work
Really enjoyed your last video !! Keep it going, I am now a subscriber!! GIUDDYUP!!
Thanks so much!
Awesome content Farzad! Appreciate the essential transformation Tesla is making. As a kid who build an electric house (solar-powered) out of legos and discarded electrical wires and say the value of electric RC cars - this is a realization of a childhood vision (from the 1980s). This shared vision of simple, safe, reliable, and clean transportation is the right focus, the right way, at the right time. However, as you call out - the challenges of scaling are way underestimated.
first time seeing your channel. great stuff - subscribed!
Thank you1
Amazing content…thank you and hanging on to my shares of Tesla. 💗
Thanks for watching!
Really enjoying your videos.
Happy to know more about Tesla. Thank you
Great job Farzad. You already seem like a TH-cam pro.
you crushed it brother, thank you for doing this!
Thanks Ken!!
Great commentary. As a project manager I needed to provide timelines with finance and progress. Since this was an estimated as is yours I always liked to comment “this is one way it won’t happen” but despite that I knew it would end well!! Same here!!
Your projections are giving me goosebumps..
Your channel is about to blow up :3 best wishes
That would be awesome!
Thank you Farzad for such a detailed video. And, especially for providing your thought process and assumptions. I own TSLA shares, continue to buy, and this shows I don’t know the company well enough. More homework needed for me
This video makes me very optimistic about the future of Tesla. I like how you breakdown the Tesla components. Good job!
I'm 29 years old and has 208 shares of Tesla (half in roth IRA, half in taxable). I have a lot of faith in the company and definitely won't sell at least until the 2050s. Even if Tesla stock price does go up drastically in next decades I think I will still keep on working. Retiring on a beach and doing nothing all day sounds like torture to me. I like working and will be working like normal until I turn 65.
I think you are on point. great analysis
Thanks for the video!
Thanks for watching!
Great video!
Add industrial solar panel market.
Your predictions about tesla is very positive and thank You 4 share with us.God bless You.
New subscriber. Brilliant content 👍
Thank you for sharing! Love it! Tesla to the moon!
I truly hope this happens as per your prediction chart. I was thinking around the $7k mark at around 2025, due to the huge demand and backlog of orders (I believe it's still around 6 months wait time in the US for a model Y), and Tesla is ONLY going to get better. Their manufacturing capabilities are UNMATCHED, and once all the factories currently being made start producing Tesla vehicles, I believe it's going to be game over for the rest of the ICE manufacturers. I myself have around $80k saved up, and I was on the fence about buying a new Tesla, but opted to invest in Tesla instead.
Good vid thank you 😊
Thank you for your hard work to help our planet a little hopeful
Thanks for watching!
I am floored by the quality of this content, the thought that went into it, and the fact that it isn’t based on hyperbole but solid reasoning .
I sent this to my daughter who is also a Tesla stockholder, in the hopes that she will use this uniquely well present information as a learning tool. This is the finest reasoning I’ve seen on the subject thus far and I watch three to for hours a day from a dozen different sorces. Keep up the good work. You are a very bright guy . I’m sure you were an asset to the Tesla project. Now you’re an asset to the followers of this amazing company.
Wow! Amazingly kind comment - thank you!
Damn, wish I found your channel earlier, I've never said this about any other channel, subscribed! Would be interested to have more stock related analysis content! Whether if it is Tesla or other companies, I wouldn't mind!
Thanks!!
Great content
Thank you
Thanks Farzad, as you said you don't know what is in the future for Tesla but you didn't mention Insurance or HVAC which I would be shocked they didn't get into !! Hope your wife's business is doing well. You are one of the few on YT that can shine a light on the company from a unique perspective. Keep it up man !!!
Thanks so much! Those are definitely variables I need to account for at some point. So many different things Tesla can capitalize on it's crazy!
You asked for negative? criticism.
1) sound. Echo is hard for me to listen to.
2) speaking. You're amazingly good for 3 videos in. I'm sure you have prior experience. You will be great if you continue.
3) content. I recommend checking "The Electric Viking" on TH-cam. His channel is 6 months old. Your videos remind me of when he started six months ago.
Your perspective as a former Tesla Employee is unique, along with your other attributes.
Please always be real, without agenda or bias.
Looking forward to seeing how you move your channel forward.
Edit: thanks for jumping in on this platform. Your voice is really needed.
Thanks so much for the awesome feedback!
Great video, keep it up!
Thanks!
I am a current swe at tesla and enjoy watching your videos. keep up the great work!
Thanks for watching!
More projections please. 1,2,5,10,15yr with updates, what changed from original projections. Your breakdown of individual sectors was 🙏👍🤘🤑❤
Good idea! Thanks so much!
Tesla is a worldwide multi development leader who we are most proud of! Thank u Elon Musk
Great video. In my humble opinion the energy part will be more driven by software solutions than hardware, which will be more profitable
Thank you for everything you did at Tesla Farzad.
if Tesla stock price is just is even 20% of 2030 predictions
I will be happily retired many years early.
I liked and subscribed!
Excellent Presentation 💯💯💯💯
Great video, keep them coming. In regards to the tesla bot, you mentioned that there won't be that many parts, which I agree, but what do you think the price per kwh will be for the battery for the bot? Do you think the bot will be using the 4680 battery, LFP, SSB or something else? Will the bot need a special inverter for the battery? I predict the bot will come in 3 models, each having varying battery sizes for how long you want the bot to operate and what strength level you need the bot to operate. How long do you think the bot will last on a charge? Plus, I think you should have calculated into effect how the bot could disrupt the factory workforce. I'm also wondering by 2035 if people, or the gen z or gen alpha will want to buy a car in the future, which I feel like car purchases will drop since those generations will be conditioned by robo taxi, but the car purchases will most likely only drop in dense population areas. what's your thoughts?
These are all really great points. I’ve approached it at a much broader level but detail like this can definitely help out model exactly what the true potential will look like!
Thank you amazing 🤩
You are absolutely correct! Your prediction is very reasonable:
Tesla stock is 1000 in 2021
It is split to 5 in 2022 & become $1000/s in 2025
In 2025 split 5 again & become $1,000 in 2030
In 2030 split 5 again & become $400 a share in 2035
A share Tesla in 2021 @$1,000 become $50,000 in 2035
If a Tesla share 500 in 2035, it become $62,500.
As a Tesla shareholder this is definitely a fun topic to think about. Its going to be crazy no matter what!
My projections align.
Well done sir!
Diamond 🙌 hands 💎
Amazing summary, huge numbers, and 2035 is not really all that faraway!
I assume there will be more stock dilution with all the earned / unearned stock options in addition to more stock sales by the company to fund additional factories and acquisitions. the number of shares to divide the profit into will keep growing keeping the price / value growth on a more even pace.
With the recent stock split (5x) my Tesla stock (bought at $32, post '08 crash) is now 15,000% the highest earner in my 30 yr portfolio.
Two weeks in and already featured on Solving The Money Problem video. That's Tesla Fast™!
Best Tesla TH-camr - and I know them all! Thanks!
Wow! That’s quite the praise thank you!
I am a new subscriber 😊
Love seeing them guitars on the wall! Of course, it would be even better if you and friend were playing them in a video! (hint hint). And your current content aint too bad. Actually it is great! Love that 'low hanging fruit'! Please keep it up!
Great video, loving your content! Cool to see how nutty the number get even w/ all those conservatives estimates regarding the AI part of the business. I think it's a useful excercise but any price target is pretty much guranteed to be wrong, if Tesla succeeds on the AI front, they will significantly overshoot your target which sounds insane. Like the 20% fleet adoption for example makes no sense because of the overwhelming financial incentive for people to take part in autonomous rideshare if/when it works. Still really like your thought process and the way you presented all the numbers, I think there's definitely merit in being conservative. Also cool that you're projecting out past 2030 unlike a lot of other people. My same thought was that growth isn't just going to magically stop after 2030 and Tesla is likely to overshoot Elon's "at least 20M cars/yr aspiration", I think Tesla will likely have significant yearly revenue growth and business expansion for at least another 2 decades.
Completely agreed across all points. The biggest takeaway from me is that Tesla's potential appears completely insane, and it's impossible to predict exactly how big they are going to be. But if the trajectory remains, the sky is the limit.
@@farzyness I see Tesla will be a statistically significant percentage of World GDP. Along with how humans see their daily life. Tesla has in place a new paradigm for work that is apparently an anomaly. In 2035 there will be Minimum Basic Income across most of the world's population. We will work to enhance our lives, not to pay the bills. Work is fun!! In 2035 transportation will not be a consequential factor in our life. Same for green power It will just be there. In 2035 there will be a human sustaining population on Mars.
One thing I consider in my thinking about what Tesla has planned is a subscription model for transportation and bots. Why should a company sell a product with a stock price of $48K, when they can get reoccurring revenue with software updates and built-in maintenance and hardware upgrades.
Also, I think Elon is already considering that parts of Tesla will spin-off parts of it as they become a part of the new dominant paradigm. I see 12 spin-offs.
And I am 67 years old.
@@juliewow4504 Great summary Julie, and I especially agree with your positive view of UBI - people will be able to pursue the things that make them happy instead of having to waste significant time on just meeting basic survival needs.
One thing worth also watching is the accelerating advancements in Longevity research (especially just in the last 5 years - reply back here if you want some useful links). Elon has stated he isn't interested in this - he appears to be more interested in the survival of the human species but not individual humans, but I'm hoping he'll come to realise the benefits and possibly add Longevity as one of his focuses.
@@toby-xo6rb I’d be interested in seeing those
@@juliewow4504 I love the MBI - but not sure how that gets implemented. That would truly level the playing field on a global level.
Smart Guy! Solid Analysis, I like his measured big picture and at the same very conservative lens he views the world. I HAVE SUBSCRIBED, I suggest everyone else does
Thanks for watching and the sub!
Great video. Thanks for putting all this together and sharing it with the public. If you’re going to thank anyone I’d recommend thanking Solving the Money Problem. He’s the reason why TH-cam is suggesting your video to viewers.
There's Tesla Bulls and there's Farzad, great Video.... Subscribed.
Thanks much!
That's an amazing insider view of the culture you presented. And yeah... Traditional OEMs are no way gonna catch up with this culture. Im a professor from India and I plan recommend your video as a must watch to my students. Very insightful. Thanks a ton. 🙂👍🏾
That’s amazing - thanks so much!
Good video, I didn't hear anything about Dojo as a service, opening up the charging network, licensing FSD, or semi/commercial vehicles
Great video. Just one immediate comment. I appreciate you’re being conservative but I think batteries and the storage of energy will be a colossal market. If Tesla is installing in order of 2-5 million power walls a year, then they are a huge utility. Tesla could use your power wall when you are on vacation and sell your electricity and pay you a percentage for the sales. This is just a use case I dreamt up but I think it indicates the opportunity this technology opens up.
The AI prediction is so far out of any one’s understanding and so huge it really adds a massive uncertainty to any prediction but I think this prediction at least describes the potential upside very well. Great video!
I agree on the energy side - it’s going to be very exciting to watch. Thanks so much!
Farzad, In your presentation you said, “I Love Math”.
I love your math too! 👍🙂🙏
Thank you. Vi ewing the drop since 1 December 2021, I could use some good hope.
I loved your video. Thanks you for your perspective. How about Tesla Insurance? Is this a revenue stream to consider for your earnings model?
Will throw this in sometime in the near future!
Good stuff. Even if you are half wrong this would a massive return.