Tesla's THREE S-Curves worth TRILLIONS? (Ep. 519)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 มิ.ย. 2024
- Tesla's three S-curves, the key to understanding Tesla's future.
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If you’re a graphic designer I’d love your help to put some of these drawings into some graphics so I can use for future videos. Please DM me on Twitter if you’re wanting to help.
Happy to help Dave. DM’d you on Twitter :)
What about the energy curve? Elon himself think energy will be bigger than Evs
Please Dave, interview Tony Seba, the master of masters of S curve and disruption technologies. Thanks.
Great video (again!). Make sure to include energy s curve in these graphics! 👍🏻
Hi Dave, do you think we'll see the top of the Mother S Curve in/within 20 years?
Dave in full on anti-fud mode. God speed soldier.
the community needs it… actually i think the community understands… the world needs it
I was driving with the fsd beta again today for over 100 miles and it handled 99% of all the drives 🚗
I like monitoring it 😋
Do you work at Tesla? When do you think the FSD will be ready for production? Thanks
@@dpsnodgrass1215 no I do not work at Tesla. The version used by Tesla employees is ready now.
Anyone that purchased fsd and passes a safety score of 99 is eligible to use the software.
Please Dave, interview Tony Seba, the master of masters of S curve and disruption technologies.
Yes, please do that.
Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease!
YESSSS!!!!
I'm glad to see someone recognize that it's not just a one shot S-Curve.
Cathy wood has been banging on about the convergence of s curves for quite a while
When you're spinning up internal start-ups monthly, it just becomes one multiphasic S Curve.
@@CSHarvey or a after first s curve start, its just a massive line up without the top s curve taper :)
Nature is never linear.
Nature will always seek balance.
As technology advances, the Earth’s human population numbers will decline without inner 🧠😇 engineering to match the external engineering.
Has there ever been a company, that had been ridden up multiple s-curves?
Dave, you are killing it with the channel. Thank you
It’s surprising that energy has completely left David’s mind space . By all metrics energy is going to be bigger than EV and it hasn’t started it’s vertical.
Yes. I think its inflection will be before FSD.
Energy has been constrained by battery availability. The demand is there for battery storage but Tesla is sold out for 2022 and probably 2023.
Utility storage is a huge market that has only begun to add battery storage. Every new wind and solar facility installed will need battery storage to go with it.
@@AndyZach the problem is they're supply constrained when it comes to energy. Until the push towards FSD/Bot I believed energy would be the biggest medium term growth story, but again there's simply not enough supplies to make that happen while simultaneously meeting 50%+ CAGR with automotive production.
It appears focusing on FSD/Bot isn't detracting from other divisions both in human capital or supplies. Either way, I trust Elon and the team/culture he's built and I'm along for the ride.
energy storage will be using LFP batteries so less expensive and longer lasting. Let us hope some new batter plants are in the near future
@@liarzdice Yes, energy is battery constrained, but we have battery plants opening in Berlin and Texas and Tesla's suppliers are doubling their capacity for Tesla in 2022. I expect 2023 to be the energy breakthrough year. I don't expect FSD until 2024-2027 at the earliest. Truly a difficult problem, not merely technically, but also legally.
Great video, but you forgot to mention the fourth S-curve, energy, which will be massive as well. And much more attainable than the Teslabot wave.
This is where they could sink their billions instead of dividends. Build massive batteries at cost and install them as a utility in the most profitable and most impactful markets for decarbonizing the grid.
@@thomasreese2816 replace could with will. They have already started with it.
Reading through the comments, it's plain to see that your content is creating a wave of positivity and thoughts about how many S curves Tesla has in our future. This is the kind of positive exchanges and rabbit holes I love to see people do down. Dave is on fire with each video, lighting the flame for us to look ahead, look deeper, go further. Thanks Dave, this too is really important for us not only as investors, but really as a society.
Dave is charged up right now! I’m loving it keep the videos coming…
You’re on a roll with the content, keep them coming
Hey - Good to see you! Please could we have an Energy Day sometime fairly soon? All this talk of Tesla bot has kind of taken my mind off climate change somewhat.
Been trying to find a way to explain Tesla's/Elons plans to others. This explanation of S-curves was very helpful.
Hi Dave. I’m wondering why you just mentioned 3 S-curves instead of 4. I think the energy S-curve is also going to be incredible. Perhaps I’m more aware of what’s coming in that area of Tesla than most people because I’m an early adopter of the Tesla solar roof + powerwalls, and let me tell you: it is amazing! That’s what made me become a long-term Tesla investor, even more than the car business. Potentially, the energy division could become larger than the car sales, if you consider not just the consumer products (like what I have), but also the mega packs and utility-level products. We are still in the very early stages of that S-curve, but I think it’s going to be huge and will have an incredible impact.
I think nuclear fusion will completely resolve the energy issue, and it’s not too far away!
@@tsh5870 5 years ago, I would have agreed with you. But with the advancements in battery technology and the decreases in prices for battery and solar, fusion might be obsolete before it’s finally developed. Decentralized energy production has so many advantages over centralized energy production.
Agreed
@@tsh5870 Nuclear fusion has been 5 years away for 50 years.
Tesla solar is a massive fuckup as of now. They haven't figured out the customer experience, it takes longer, is more expensive than expected, they're selling LESS solar panels now than when they acquired the solar company...Elon is too busy to care since the problem of electric panels is being solved by other people(their input was aesthetics of panels but yeah...valuable but not game-changing)
As this sinks in to more and more people I think we will se a runup of $TSLA to $2,000-$3,000 this year, followed by a rocky road to $50,000+. Warren was right all along.
It’s funny this is exactly what I was thinking earlier today. Everyone called Warren crazy last year when he came up with those 20-40k price targets. He was literally one of the few. It’s all
Starting to make sense now.
25 trillion company?
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL " 2-3k this year " .. see you at 600s mid March after the first hike ... you cultists are SOMETHING else LOL. I swear everyone was screeching that this would never go below 900s when it was 1100 + .. what happened ? yeah 790s LOL ... you think the bottom is in ... think again this year is going to be bloody the fact that you assume its going to go above 2k+ just shows how dumb and stupid the people in this echo chamber are.
That easy huh?!
@@Seqqsy Yeah: Same as 2 years ago 🤣
Right now I’m watching both the Tesla S-curve and the Dave Lee on Investing S-curve!
I’d throw energy in the conversation as well. Crazy how much disruption this Company is involved in.
Outstanding explanation. The synergy between these efforts is striking. Thanks Dave.
It’s pretty mind blowing particularly as Musk has a couple of side hustles in SpaceX, Starlink and The Boring Company that also have imbedded S curves.
Hey Dave,
What about battery and energy S curve? Should they be included?
Math teacher here. Just a small correction about inflection points: on S curves, inflection points are smack dab in the middle, half-way between the top and bottom of the curve. An inflection point is where a graph changes concavity, not when the slope goes from slightly positive to more positive. At the inflection point, the slope is steepest and the adoption of the product will begin its latter half.
But that's not what Dave was saying. Even if he used to wrong term.
Dave, Congratulations on the 200K milestone! Gratitude and Respect to you for the knowledge you have shared thru your channel. Thank you!
Dave, you forgot about the solar / battery storage S-Curve!
The solar business is not making any money
Tesla have yet to find it’s comparative advantage in solar
@@krezos9313 well, der...S curve!? Just like the EV side was loosing money once and nearly made Tesla bankrupt. Elons stated many times. Energy side of Tesla will be bigger that EV side.
@@callumglass I hope so
The Tesla and SpaceX story is the most exciting journey in technology history. Thank you for sharing your genius with us, Dave.
You laid this out beautifully, Dave. Thank you for sharing your thoughts!
Thank u Dave, this weekend we got fully loaded updates. Love the content 👌
Killer video Dave. Keep them coming. Would you do a video on how full self driving is approved? By city? State? Feds?
Very interesting way to look at it with the 3 S curves. Makes a lot of sense. Should be massive growth like nothing we have seen before for the next 20 years. Next 5 years should be fun to watch. Wall Street absolutely does not yet get the last 2 S curves. Not many people do
You are on a roll, love these videos, feels like I am binging Dave lee ;)
4th S curve is energy mega pack virtual utility
Agree that energy storage & virtual utility are a 4th, maybe it fits between FSD & AI/bot S-curves.
Where does the enegy curve fit relative to the other 3?
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Yes! I suspect the energy supply/storage S curve will share its market with molten salt nuclear and other competitors, and the FSD market possibly will not at first have to share - so my guess is that it will be on the same order of magnitude as the EV S curve
Brilliant clarity!
You are a miracle
This video puts all the things so well together! Thank you!
This video was so nice I watched it twice. And probably won’t stop there. One of your most important videos I’ve ever watched. Thx.
Very good video, Dave. One of your best ones. Good basic illustrations to show the massive waves ahead.
Great illustrations Dave. Mindboggling!
Ty for sharing this Dave was waiting for it and think it important for others to be aware of it.
Excellent video Dave, great insight
I love your work! TY so much! Greetings from Switzerland.
Beautiful Breakdown Dave👏👏👏
Awesome work dave 👍
Amazing insightful video!
Dave’s in beast mode this week
Great video Dave, thanks!
Great explanation. Thanks.
Outstanding video Dave! Thank you.
Dave's been on the grind so appreciate it. Dave man make sure you're getting that sleep in. Everything else comes second in my book.
Great video - thank you Dave
Deep insight, easy explanation! thanks for your efforts!
Great video Dave!
Netflix transitioning from DVDs by mail to streaming comes to mind when you describe multiple S curves.
Buy Netflix! that what he said :)))
This is easily your most profoundly insightful video.
Great Explanation!
Great top down overview and it explains the justification for expanding and contracting P/E. The timelines are very important as the more they overlap you get a shoot for the moon and less overlap can lead to stair steps.
Dave can you add stationary storage and Solar generation into your graphic?
Great content!
Brilliant analysis. Thank you Dave
Very well articulated!
Amazing analysis - worth sharing to as many people as possible
Really love the steady stream of videos obsessed with this last earning call
It is always great to see Dave excited about Tesla’s future.
Thank you Dave, take it easy and take care.
Very well articulated.
Thank you, Dave!
Great content Dave! It was helpful
Great video Dave
Excellent exposition!
Well done explanation!!!!!
Dave is on fire with so many video!
dave on a ROLL.... good to see it!!
Another excellent video Dave!
Thank you for sharing this wonderful perspective on TSLA
Exactly!
And indeed, Tony Seba would make for a great interview on your channel.
Great visual
agreed, and this is without the Energy side of the business that could also be huge
Brilliant, gives me a whole new framework to view whats happening.
This is very good explanation for future Tesla business directions.
Thank you for your insight.
Thank you 🙏🏻
Yup. Nailed it Dave.
I can't wait to see the Tesla FUD over the coming weeks/years. The FUDsters will do everything they can to stop this.
I'm already seeing "The elites are going to take your car from you"
Anything out there can stop fsd.
Great presentation Dave. You might want to review the definition of “inflection point”.
You need to add the energy S-curve in there Dave. Utilities and governments are starting to realize it’s much cheaper to enable /incentivize distributed battery storage systems that can store home solar than it is to invest in new large electric infrastructure. Distributed energy and enabling virtual power plants is a massive growth area for Tesla once they get battery production ramped in excess of their auto demands.
Absolutely false. In fact, its quite the opposite. The utilities do not need residential producers at all, and there is zero reason for them to incentivize it. Net metering agreements across the US are getting less favorable, and in some states additional taxes are being proposed to be imposed on residential producers who wish to sell their energy to the utility. If you want to sell your power via the grid, then you must pay to support the grid. Being that you already will never see an ROI from your residential solar system, there would be no reason to invest in battery storage unless in your thinking storm duty. Economically, however, it will never make sense.
VERY GOOD point. Energy management via immensely improved electrical storage and intelligent grid management (AI-influenced) will be key to the future. Like EV adoption of the last decade, new era energy management is just now getting off the ground.
Awesome!.
Thank you! I'm all in to support the mission of bettering humanity.
Thank you!
Great Video!
wow, wow,wow thanks Dave
So you’re telling me that Tesla will be worth $69 Trillion soon 🙏🏽🙌🏽🚀
Incredible and thoughtful
YOU ARE CORRECT....ALMOST ALWAYS DAVE!!!!
wow - great explanation
Dave, like your S curve graph !
Incredible insight. Reassuring to Tesla (long) stockholders, I'm sure. Thank you Dave Lee.
Very good Dave, very very good.
Hi Dave, This is an awesome explanation! You are a great help to interpret to us, what the genius Elon Musk is doing and talking about that many do not full comprehend. This is exciting to hear as a longterm investor that wants to be in the start of the S curves. Thank you so much!
Excellent explanatıon
Super compelling
Great Video... I would add an Energy S curve midpoint of Ev's for a total of 4..
Such a great video
Dave I love the influx of videos.
Protect dave at all cost !!!
The ‘King of All Tech’ companies which is why Elon is the Techno King
love this!
Jeez I walk away for 5 mins to make a coffee and Dave posts another video. I can't keep up