Going all-in on Tesla Stock vs Diversification (Ep. 542)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 ก.พ. 2022
- My thoughts on concentration vs diversification, safe vs risky assets, and various approaches for different situations.
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Dave “stream of consciousness” Lee
😂
Dave Stream of consciousness orders of magnitude Mother of all s curves profound Lee
Thanks, Dave. I'm almost 70, approaching retirement, and have been a patient, disciplined Boglehead index investor since early adulthood. Two years ago, influenced by people like you, I broke with that history, and put half of my stock market holdings into Tesla. I had already missed the big move in the stock, but even so, Tesla grew so rapidly that it has become 75% of my stock portfolio. I had deliberately reserved enough money in index funds so that even if my Tesla went to zero, I would still have plenty of money to pay my expenses, while growing my portfolio, even as I drew upon it.
At my age, this seemed prudent. If my conviction in Tesla had been incorrect, and the company had gone bankrupt, going all-in would have ruined me. With the aid of hindsight, having gone all-in would have earned me a lot of money, but as they say, hindsight is always 20/20. I took a great deal of risk, investing half of my stock dollars in Tesla, but I also "played it safe", reserving half of my stock in index funds. It seemed like a balanced mix of prudence and daring at the time, and I'm happy with where I sit now.
I could easily have $60,000,000 by the time I die, if Tesla does as well as we enthusiasts believe it will. That is far more than I can use, and far more than my children can use. So I think I'll sell a little Tesla every year, and reinvest it in my index funds, to roughly double them in five years. Then, there will be no doubt that I have plenty to live on, even if the stock market crashes. Even if that modest rebalancing reduces my estate from $60m to $40m, so what?
Tesla has freed me from most financial worry, and has enabled me to set up college accounts for my 20 nieces and nephews. It feels good to share my good fortune with those I love. I have the children invested mostly in Tesla, of course. They are excited to watch the ups and downs of the stock, and they are proud to be helping change the world. One niece, who is five, was amazed recently with her first ride in a Tesla. Her mother told her "You know, honey, your money helped build this beautiful car." The girl's eyes went wide with astonishment. "Really?" she asked. "Yes, really." her mom told her.
I am hoping to hit 1000 shares this month.
So happy for you. Sincerely hope you reach your goal of 60 million and so nice of you to help your nieces and nephews.
What a beautiful and insightful post. Please, continue posting!😀
🥰🥰🥰
@@michelemichele6387 How sweet of you to say this. I am lucky to have these children to share my life, and my good fortune.
It astonishes me to think of what the power of compounding will do for them. They each have 11 shares of Tesla, plus a little Palantir, each account worth a bit over $10,000 today. With 16 years to compound (until the five year-old turns 21), assuming a growth rate of only 15%, $10,000 will grow to about $94,000. I am sure that Tesla will grow much faster than 15%, too.
Just fyi, the $100k of investable savings/year was just an example of an extremely high earner/saver. Wasn't meant to be an objective minimum of what a high earner/saver is. That is more subjective and depends on a lot of things like your anticipated monthly expenses if/when not working, how much longer you are able to work, and on other factors. So it's more like a sliding scale, and I was just using an extreme example. (Point being, the more replenishable annual investable savings you have, the more you can afford to make mistakes). Safe approach vs riskier approach is also a sliding scale and can be mixed as I share in the video. Anyway, lots of these thoughts are a work in progress. Glad to get a discussion started.
DAVE are you still buying Tesla shares ?
Agree, you said "ideal situation" NOT "typical situation" you had not gone full "valley girl"!
For people starting out save for downpayment on house and invest in 401(K).
Agree, keep your living expenses under control especially transportation expenses (such as a car) and don't take on too large a home mortgage (risky and may need funds for other investments). Jump to high income job may come from college, but resaerch and plan carefully. Keep an open mind for unexpected career and/or travel opportunities.
Yeah. Only 15% of America makes six figures period. The amount of young people that can invest 100k/year is extremely rare.
The biggest paradox of age/wise investing is that in your 20's you have the longest time horizon, so anyone prioritizing the long term realizes you ought to be putting some money to work with investments.
However, it's the first time most people are making any substantial amount of money. It's easy to spend it on standard living expenses and consume the rest for "desire fulfilment," and upgrades to their lifestyle where possible.
Before I got into the market I put money into an index fund. It was only later that I found out that this fund was just the top 5 stocks and I was paying a fee. Now I'm all in Tesla.
Hey love the portfolio. You mind me asking did u buy into tesla early or not. I'm just wondering as I'm thinking of increasing my tesla allocation but worried either a full on crash that takes 8 years for recovery or tesla mess up fsd, or elon dies lol. Anyway like the allocation
@@stevetaylor20 if Elon dies, think Tesla will still do fine. Blueprint is baked in now. Same with spacex.
Exactly, especially mutual funds are very expensive. These are even worse than ETFs in charging fees. And even for the simple index ETFs, there is quite in difference between managers for e.g. QQQ.
@@stevetaylor20 June 2020 for me
@@Couly nice man, good work
Grateful to you Dave. I constantly share your teachings to our local high school and college students interested in investments. You are a true public servant. 🙏😇
That might be one of the most valuable non profit work: teaching others about money :)
love the content Dave, this one is a gem for sure. You have gone from 500 vids in early January to already 542 videos just 1,5 months later! insane growth! catching escape velocity
ALL IN TSLA!!!! 100 %
Again love your short videos, especially this one! You summed it up pretty well. Thank you for sharing your wisdom and experience.
A lifetime of personal decisions and outcomes distilled in less than 30 minutes. Look after yourself and your family first then, if all is in order, expand out and influence where you can. Everyone has to look after themselves and try not to become a burden. Great stuff Dave,
Well said
You really teaching in a great way! keep it up with that humble and unbiased way, you're awesome
Dave's is the G.O.A.T of practical investing principles!
Thanks for bringing back the longer form videos; missed these so much😭
Thanks for the knowledge. As a late bloomer in investing your conversations are great food for thought.
Dave this probably one the best videos you made. This is what I was looking for. A guild yo how to approach financial freedom. Not just saying wake up early and work hard but more of a frame work. So many TH-camrs focus on the mechanics, but not the thought process. Thank you so much.
If you can would u be able to group your past videos like compounding together so it will be easier to find when new people on your channel. Hardes thing on TH-cam is finding the correlating videos.
Dave, thank you so much for this video. I keep learning from you. This has been the exact Budget strategy for my wife and me as well for the past 10 years. Including putting a large cash investment into Tesla a few years ago and holding onto real estate.
This was very timely advice in this day and age when there is so much financial gurus out there. I like how you present the argument for trusting yourself to evaluate your own unique situation, skill set as well as financial goals before investing.
You manage to cover all the factors in a decision matrix
in one of the most complicated decision making spheres for people
Best all-around summary in 20 minutes I’ve ever seen
such that I’m going to write it out
to include in the counselling
I often give patients in regards to this very stressful part of one’s mental health life..!
Money the proxy of survival And so it becomes a topic 90% of the time
Thanks Dave
Good stuff Dave! From a financial advisers perspective, this is great general information and advice
I think I’m going against most advice I see ou there. I’m 44 and only started investing in the last year. I have low income and only have about $5500 invested at the moment. I don’t diversify and I’m all in on Tesla stock. I have a family and a big mortgage that will see me working into my 70s if I live that long. I decided to take this high risk approach because I don’t have the time or the money to invest in the safe approach. I’m putting whatever I can afford into Tesla stock because I’ve done my research on that one company and believe it’s the safest high risk investment I can make. If I was to lose all the money then yes I’d be devastated but at the same time I’m prepared to take that risk if it helps me to retire a little earlier. Appreciate this video Dave. Thank you.
It's time to sell that house, maybe go to a different state and get a cheap mortgage interest rate now before they go up on a smaller house . It seems you are living beyond your means. You need to save now for income when you retire and medical conditions. I retired at age 46 (now 53).... not because I am wealthy or had investments. I just worked a hard contractor job, saved and lived below my means, then bought my house for cash.
I wish you all the best and pray your hard earned money gives you the maximum returns.
Keep buying at every paycheque. In a couple of years you will be smiling and still keeping up a really great habit. You only need to 10x twice over the course of 2 decades with your entire wealth if your wealth is 100k.
Tsla is half the equation. It might even become the second half the decade after.
@@tioriccopuravidatrader121 I am not living beyond my means at all. All my bills get paid, my family have food and a roof over their heads. So you are suggesting to “save” money? As in have money sitting in a bank account being devalued every year from inflation yeah?
@@farihaafreen9761 Thanks for the kind words.
I think there is another group: low income now, high risk investing, because safe future. I'm 25, biomedical PhD student, but 99% assets are in high growth stocks as I have a safe job for the next years (cant get kicked out) + high income once I graduate (biotech industry).
Holy Mother of Pearls! A Biomedical PhD.. at 25!!!
Great Respect! Wishing you godspeed in all your endeavors, including investing, my friend!
There's risk in your future income as well, like getting into any kind of long term illness. I think spending (minimally) on disability income and critical illness insurance would hedge that risk.
This category defintely exists. Such industries and graduates include, medicine, law, engineering and I.T. low income now (due to studies and the first year to 3 years of work). But generally after that 3rd year, those BIG BUCKS roll in deep, because by then, let's use a lawyer for example. In my country, you'd graduate as a lawyer, for the first 3 years you have to be supervised by your principle lawyer (law firm boss lawyer). After you've 3 years supervised and approved of your certificate, you can now legally open up your own firm/practice. That's when high 6 figures to 7 figures start to accumulate. Same thing with medicine if you're a GP, if you have your own practice ;)
Agreed
Great work Chris. My daughter has just started her Biomed Phd at 21 and is loving it
Thanks for sharing your own case, it helps all to understand.
One of your best videos in my opinion, nice one Dave!
Excellent presentation! Much food for thought. Forwarding this to the young next generation in the family. Thank you so much!
Thank Dave for reading on your comment . Like I said , I need to know how to get there and not just theory . Thank you going into more detail . And congratulations again in ellon acknowledge
Excellent advice Dave. Thank you. You echo the fat FIRE mantra.
100% in on TSLA now. I am so lucky and fortunate to live in a time where I am able to take advantage of the decade where Tesla will make a lot of investors rich.
Best insight ever, every young person should understand your approach Dave. Thank you
Loved this video Dave! And thanks for sharing your story as well! A real story helps to put all the theory into perspective.
One thing though: people cannot relate to figures as high as $1 million. Make the same example with $10k or $1k, and a lot more people will be able to relate to that IMHO.
Part of the incentive for doing good is investing in companies that are innovative AND doing things that improve the human condition overall.
Very balanced, I would definitely want my kids to hear this explanation.
Thanks Dave!
Very very cool presentation. Such a golden lesson this one.
Thank you so much Dave. This video was super helpful regarding this topic!
Good Educational advice.
There is quite a difference between the experienced and academic approaches, because experience in Business is almost essential to buying Shares in businesses. It's the difference between Industrial Capitalism and Financial Capitalism, the Shop Floor and the Quant's Instruments.., or Buy and Hold and the Casino, in a spectrum of proportioning.
Outstanding advice. For me, all in 100% Tesla has been the best choice so far and moving forward 5-15 years. Great unbiased information as usual. Thanks, Dave.
Is it still?
This personal story really resonates. Thank you for sharing. I like the high giving ambition hack! So true that it's a very personal decision.
Just watched the entire video with GREAT information! 👍🏼 I did all the calculations for exactly what type of investment strategy is right for my family 👪 ... STILL going ALL IN on TESLA!!! 😆
Good luck with your money moving nowhere until at least next 5 years.
@@johnreed5056 Yes, Tesla, what a bad stock right. You can't fix dumb can you......
What a gem Dave, thank you as always. Love from 🇵🇭
Wow. I’m so impressed with you and your families steadfastness.
So glad I heard this, and it acknowledged our decisions of what we did with our money. After 5 Tesla’s, we took some extra cash, and went all-in a few yrs ago.Thank you!
This is really helpful! Thanks Dave
Thanks, Dave. Good scenarios on how to invest your money in safe and/or fast methods.
Dave much love ❤️ from Australia 🇦🇺 …mate, you really should be writing a book. You have credibility, humility and a very balanced view of the VALUE of money. A very unique and precious basket of values. Do it. 🙂
Dave lee is such a nice guy what a great role model
That's the most balanced investment advice I've heard.
Great Thought Process Dave👏👏👏
Great information Dave. Thank you !
Such a great explanation. This is the go to video to share with friends and family when they ask about investments.
You are correct! Everyone's situation dictates a different investment strategy. Personally, I had been retired for several years when I began studying TESLA in 2019. I became convinced that this was a well managed company with a vision, AND demonstrated ability to execute. I was also convinced that the automobile industry was about to be disrupted by the BEV revolution, led by Tesla. We had a diversified portfolio that included mutual funds and even annuities. We had enough to fund our retirement in perpetuity without my personal IRAs. So I converted both my IRAs to TSLA stock, and the rest is history. I am now in the process of converting the traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs where the TSLA stock can grow tax free. Of course, I have to pay taxes on the stock that I convert to Roth IRAs, and I am doing that with proceeds from the sale of some of the mutual funds. Fortunately, we are financially secure enough to take a hit in diversification, as Tesla becomes a larger percentage of our portfolio. Because we are retired, our simple rule is to concentrate on a few stocks like TSLA only if we can continue to live comfortably with the total loss of such stocks.
Now TSLA overshadows all our other investments, and we have the happy dilemma of deciding what type of good cause to fund.
your videos are really the best. it puts clarity into all of us
You covered it all Dave. Great information. Now I know I’m doing it right. Some times I have doubts.
you still should, Dave isn't your fiduciary
@@robertvalinsky9804 l had a fiduciary and wasn’t happy with the returns. No risk no reward
Thank you Dave. You are appreciated!
David, this is awesome advice. Thank you very much
Like always simply wonderful David I heard you say power of compound often but how ,
the dividends from stocks that hard to get to double triple the way you describe thanks
One of my top 3 favorite channels on TH-cam ..thanks Dave
Lol, and the other 2 are....?
@@send2dwight Athlean-X and One Message Foundation. 👍
Thanks Dave!
this is was an amazing video and some great take aways for me. Thanks for all this free insight Dave, it's really helpful :)
Thanks Dave, a very appropriate video for everyone interested in investing.
Excellent video... better strategy than wealth preservation.. thanks.. Dave
This were the wisest advices I’ve heard for a long time.
Appreciate the transparency❣️
Depending on each person's situation! Thanks.
Great video Dave! I have always been spending too much on my lifestyle.
Now its time to taper it to invest more into safe and fast assets,
Great thoughts. I follow the same, safe to cove living, and aggressive that I don’t need to live on, but has the potential to do good
Super Helpful!!!!
Very well done video Dave
Thanks Dave, very helpful👍
This is so good Dave
Hey Dave, another great video. Can you talk more about the mindset journey that brought u here. Meaning, the accumulation of specific experiences, knowledge, insights that led you to invest in Tesla. For many it's not just investing knowledge that helps but both life experiences, learning from mistakes, ambition, and research. Remove the "money" from the wealth creation equation and only talk about how the mindset and choices you make that really impact your path to wealth
Goooold for all those who are getting introduced into investing 👏 Good job!
Extraordinary video. Thx!
How long do you think multiples will compress before they reverse to higher multiples?
Hi Dave, really good and objective thinking on a hard problem, how to invest. I think you did a really good work. Thanks.
Great info and great video Dave!! Thanks so much! 🚀🌙
AWESOME VIDEO! THANKS DAVE !
thank you Dave
Great presentation, should be viewed by our younger generation. I like you idea of growing to do good for others.
Hey Dave, could you do an episode on renting vs buying properties and give your insights into these two options?
Thanks Dave. I've been all in with Tesla since last June. Late to the game but not too late I hope.
Just do a combo of both. I have some very high cash-flow companies (like DISCA & MU) but I also own TSLA. I actually think TSLA is very safe at this point though, as its forward P/E has dropped below 90 and will continue dropping as analyst projections increase. My riskiest stock is VYGVF which I doubled-down on at $7/share. Just don't overleverage, and own a few stocks. But don't diversify JUST for the sake of diversification. Only diversify if all opportunities are GREAT. Just my thoughts
Needed to see this now. Your such a good human being. You were blessed for your kindness
quite insightful -- thanks for sharing
Thank you 🙏🏼 very much !
really like this video that u share ur thoughts on diversify and concentrate. totally agree that u pointed out every person is unique and in their unique circumstances, and should make own decisions about investing and take responsibility for it. respect.
Took delivery of our MYLR 9 days ago, and conviction is now pegged at 100%.
Great video Dave! I learned a lot from this.
Great decision matrix Mate!
Cheers,
Eric
Congrats on all your personal success, Dave.
Thanks Dave
Thanks vm Dave! 🙏
Beautiful outlook on the world. Learn what works for you. (This has taken me 20 years to discover.) best.
Great video Dave!
Playing it safe gives low returns, so now you introduce the inflation risk. Being all in on Tesla has meant loosing 50% of my money at times, but this has been more than compensated when the stock goes to the moon. It’s the maximum risk path for me.
Isn't TSLA a index fund? Cars, robots, software etc etc
Excellent video for younger viewers who start their journey in investing.
Hi Dave, good video. I know what you mean but the proper usage is "risk averse" not "risk adverse."
Dave, did you remove that review of the CNBC review of Tesla FSD or did TH-cam remove it?
Dave is literally so valuable. Probably such a cool dad too LOL
Very good explanation. Will distribute to some friends.
Excellent video. Thank you ☺️
VERY level headed. My summary: Get living expenses taken care of with safe assets and job. Then, invest in high growth for compounding possibility. I'm doing exactly that.
TSLA, ETHE, and GBTC in Roth IRAs. I'm hoping for 8-12X by the end of 2030 (9 years).
Tesla to 12x? Impossible. You do realize that would make Tesla Worth more then market cap of Gold? Lol
@@didafm so?
@@X11CHASE its extremely unlikely
Great video Dave, thanks
I started investing at 19 with a 401k, rolled that into a ROTH when i changed jobs years later. I was going to buy my first house and use 10k from the ROTH. I had a total of 40k. The day before i needed to withdraw the 10k one of the stocks I was in crashed and took my account from 40k to 15k. I withdrew the 10k (bought the house) and was left with 5k. That experience sucked so bad I stopped investing and didnt look at the stock market for 18 years. After hearing about Tesla in 2018 i started funding my old account again which had nothing left since i was all in high risk stuff because i didnt care. I jumped in and started buying TESLA. In 2 years I grew my account to over 433k with shares and call options on Tesla thru the split and Snp Inclusion. Im now 50 and basically just getting started investing again. This market will steal your money if your not careful. I can handle risk but definitely have cut back some during the last year of Tech sector getting crushed. The market is one big game of manipulation and you have to trade based on that understanding. I plan to trade stocks as an income source when i "retire" my remodeling business in 10 years or so. Im down big from the all time high because I ignored risk for a few months to long. I am confident that Tesla will help a lot of people gain financial independence if they invest for 10 years. I dump ALL my spare cash into the market (managing risk more now) since my expenses are very low my house has no mortgage
Holy crap 18 years with no investing :( . But hey I’m glad Tesla worked out for you. Hopefully that 400k will be 4 million in the next decade. I’m 24 and I have 40k I’m looking to deploy into Tesla and turn it into ~500k over the next decade 🙏🏻
@@9770G yea 18 years away from the market led me to "investing" in my skills and learning to run a construction business and restore cars on the side. The money I spent on cars, motorcycles, snowmobiles, quads, and parts and tools I couldve already had that 4 million. Live and LEARN. Be careful in this market. Lots of FEAR causing high volatility. "manage" your risk.
@@tabbott429 ya I’m a car guy myself and always dreamed of owning a corvette or charger hellcat when I was 18-22 but once the pandemic cam it totally changed the way I view money and what to do with it. I used to think just saving ur money in a bank account was “smart” but now I realize that really isn’t the case at all 😂