How To Think Through a Tough Decision in Poker
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.ค. 2024
- This week Stu calls in a hand from Maryland Live! where he flops top set out of the SB as the preflop raiser but the board runs out worse and worse by the river. Bart goes through his own thought process on how to make the proper decision.
0:00 - Intro
1:48 - Preflop
3:40 - Flop
5:35 - Turn
9:17 - River
14:13 Hero’s Decision Point
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![คุณอาเรียโต๊ะข้างๆ พูดรัสเซียหวานใส่ซะหัวใจจะวาย ตอนที่ 4 [ซับไทย] 【Ani-One Thailand】](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/_vK_cden2f8/mqdefault.jpg)
These are great breakdowns. Relatable stakes. Learning a ton with these.
Since the MP2 didn’t want to show his hand even after being offered more money he definitely had the flush. Not many people are going to deny the opportunity to get paid extra and show their sick bluff.
lol true!Id accept the money everytime and show.kinda daft he refused 20$
I strongly favour big c/r turn in this multi-way spot - I can’t see turn checking through 4-way. It’s a much better way to neutralise our positional disadvantage
Of course it sucks if there's no turn bet, but with 3 people to act, repping Qs, having Qs, semi-bluffing FDs, hitting 2p w Q6s/Q2s, I'm just not convinced we don't see a turn bet
The hand that Bart doesn’t mention here is 4 5 , and possibly 4 5 of spades. The suited connector
would be a snap call on the turn for the villain.
Bart love the content.
Pre-flop: in the SB when limped to, I like to raise a standard open x4, so $60 in this spot. Post-flop I play a simple, pretty straight forward, strategy.
These hands with no clear answer are BRUTAL for my curiosity. Was it the right fold? We will never know 😭
MP2 certainly had the nut flush…just didn’t want to say it
If you offer someone 20 bucks and they don't show, they had it lol
@@johnnytwotimes7854 or not.
@@johnnytwotimes7854 You're a moron. If you offer someone $20 and they DON'T show, clearly that means they DIDN'T HAVE IT...
OR THAT THEY DID HAVE IT.
@@MartinP279 wrong
“Certainly” 😆
When I get 3 callers for that bet on the flop I would check with the intent to reraise all in on the turn. It's a bit old school but i'd be trying to get as much money in vs draws/over pairs as I can right then. I feel like if I give up the betting lead there someone is going to try to slip in and bet to win the pot, and If they have a set of queens so be it. If it checks through then I can re-evaluate on the river.
I agree. Sick of these donks hitting their flush lol
Given how spazzy some players are live when checked to on the river, if I don't know the opponent I think I have to toss in the call. I could totally see a lower set or 2 pair going for ambitious value here.
What two pairs are here and sets would have raised already (most of the time)
Maybe, but betting 3/4 pot with those hands on the river seems insane... I could maybe see a small bet (1/4-1/3) with those hands in position if both opponents check the river.
@@Gos1234567 given the poor raise sizing preflop and the small flop bet, mp2 in position could have just about anything
@@kochampion7 Like they limp in with Qx type hands up front?
Don't know the result, but I think I make a tight fold. Seems pretty unlikely that villain bluffs here multiway, and I'd be shocked if a worse hand bets that size for value, even if they have a set.
MP2 probably had 66 or 22. MP1 probably folded something like QT suited. I think I would’ve put in calling chips while reaching for backup
lol! Exactly, me too, I wouldn't have the discipline to fold a set there
Possibly but most would raise their set on flop or turn I think
People raise their sets on the flop or turn here. Definitely the turn when flush draw shows up
If the guy in the middle who tanked on the turn bet, and LP folds, then I am more inclined to fold. But when it's check to LP, then he is more incentivized to bluff river, and win the pot with a busted straight. I also wouldn't be shocked if he was value betting worse hands, like two-pair and sets. If you think about it from his perspective he can't put the Hero on a set of 88s on a 8 high board, after squeeze raising pre.
Man that's a tough spot, if you block bet I think MP2 may jam. I was thinking of maybe 9/7 of spades
If MP1 bet in the middle on the end its an easy fold right? Much harder to be bluffing since has to be worried about the player behind making the flush?
I’m folding too, tough spot
Not at the end yet, but couldn't MP1 have a baby flush after checking the river?
Calling can't be terrible, but I think I'd fold here as well. It feels hard to find 2 hands that can call turn with neither of them being spades and certainly MP2 would know for sure they have the price to call with the nut flush draw once MP1 calls so timing does not necessarily mean made hand. Definitely a bluff is plausible because MP2 probably loves the spot of MP1 looks weak and SB is forced to bluff catch with MP1 still behind him, but IDK I feel you beat almost no value (even overplayed) because why would they slow play a set on that turn and I doubt they backed into 2 pair on the river somehow.
3:10 “8s are kind of tough to play multi-way”
So you raise really small thus ensuring it goes multi-way?
🧠
If it was heads up I call. Villian bet large with 2 opps who both had showed strength, so I fold. Is he really bluffing one out of 3 times? Pot odds being over 2 to 1.
Could v2 ever have a lower set here? It appears that neither H or v1 has a flush, so he might be betting for value, except the sizing is way off
Live reads on the turn feels like MP1 has a hand like TT or A8 and MP2 has a good draw.
I feel like I would talk myself into folding here too. I don't think this is bad. Although can't go wrong calling with sets at lower stakes
Gold was probably correct, similar spot happened to me recently. Villains passive to the river then aggressive when flush hits it’s almost always the flush at these stakes.
Fold not gold
I do think it's possible MP2 had KQo, you are definitely sticking around when the Qs hits the turn, or he could have had a weaker set, 22's or 66's. I think I make the call here..
Yup…. Small flop sizing (I liked 2/3rd), now multiple players to the turn and river and now we have like the 14th nuts lol…
Ranges are still pretty wide on the turn. I like a check, bet small, or over bet after betting small on the flop. Depends on opponents tendencies. Most of the time I'm betting 300-350, then all-in on any river. If they get there then oh well nice hand
Over betting into 2 people from out of position is not really a thing
Definitely had the nuts or second nuts. People love showing bluffs especially if it works on two people
Bet small flop, size up a little more turn, jam non spade river. So you gotta check fold, icky spot
"Don't fold sets." --D. Polk
then folds them constantly
Ha. The insta-call on the turn gave it away. Definitely had the flush.
Is this a repost? Or is this from the call in show from a few weeks ago? I'm having Deja Vu...
Is there no benefit to block betting (even though you will not get called by worse) for the purpose of reducing the chances the villain will attempt a bluff you can’t call after you’ve checked (to protect yourself from float/steal attempts) to increase your odds of cashing in your hands equity (vs check folding to a much bigger bet than you block or vs a shove)?
Block bets don't make sense if you can't get called by worse
@@davidbrook9209 why not if you fold to any large bet? if you will call 300/800 but will fold anything above 500, and you know villain in position, with bluffs and value will always bet 500+, why not?
The idea is:
if your opponent doesn’t have a lot of bluffs then blocking to discourage bluffing is useless.
If your opponent has a lot of bluffs then you should be check calling when he bets, not check folding, and you don’t want to discourage the bluffs that you can call and make money on.
Either way, blocking to discourage bluffing doesn’t make sense
that makes sense, but what if it isn't a bluff, and it's an overvalue?
e.g., KQ or lower sets that didn't raise? which may not raise if you block bet 350-450. i feel like the idea of check calling against someone with bluffs makes sense assuming you don't fold, but caller effectively has the second nuts in terms of hand class yet still folded to a 75% bet.
so i'm wondering, in the case when the player is tight and will fold to any 75% bets, why not block bet? true, lose out on the potential money that they bluff, but also avoiding giving up the pot. i think it's safe to say if it checked all around, 88s would've taken it down. loses his 850 if he folds, vs block betting 400, potentially getting called by weird Kx or Qx, and securing the pot. or 3rd scenario, block betting, getting raised, and then folding to what's most likely a backdoor flush. i'm just not entirely convinced about the merit of not blocking ASSUMING* he will fold to any 75% bet
@@therapeutech I agree. No one can assume with 100% accuracy that worse won’t call a block bet or that the villain will not bluff when he shouldn’t have many bluffs in his range anyways. People make ridiculous bluffs all the time. I’ve lost count how many times I’ve listen to callers say they check/folded a big river bet and saw a bluff that didn’t make much sense (but still got hero to fold). We assume too much that our opponents know more than they do or know what they will do.
People are generalizing when we’re specifically speaking about a paired board where we may check (over) fold the river because the bet is beyond our calling threshold (even though they could be bluffing). But, If we are check calling prepared to pay off a much larger bet than we would value cut ourselves for a lesser price… then how bad can that be when they may still call with worse and are much less likely to bluff raise over a river bet (bet bet bet line) vs a river check (bet bet check line)?
It feels like people are applying a copy paste rote strategy in a very specific situation that could have merit for a different line. There is no such thing as a 100% frequency action for many lines, yet so many people seem to consider most actions to be black or white (one is right, all other actions are wrong) when each situation is often a different shade of a grey area (in my opinion).
I’m Not saying this is “right” or perfect (and no one else can know their line is either). I’m just wondering if there is a case for a consideration besides the default action (that seems to be exploited quite often from what I’m experiencing).
I'm a bit surprised that Bart seems to think that MP2 should be checking back a lower set or top 2 (KQ suited). It feels a bit nitty to be checking back one of those hands, even though the backdoor flush got there, because the other two players both checked their hands on the river. How often would the hero or MP1 be checking a backdoor flush on the river? I think if I had any set or KQ, I'd be betting them for value from MP2's position.
Normally I think that I'm too nitty of a player, so I find it refreshing that in this hand my instincts aren't to be a nit. Still not good instincts though apparently.
Bart is correct if opponents are balanced. Given they both open limped, we are not dealing with sophisticated GTO players. As an exploit you are right as hero and MP1 both capped their ranges when they checked. KQ+ easy value bet.
I think a hand like top two could be a value bet on the river in position if both opponents check, but the sizing would need to be tiny to get called by worse IMO.
I suppose he feels a set would have raised the turn at least so its not that much in Vs range?
By the betting pattern, these are the most likely hands Queen jack off for MP1, Jack ten of spades, and Ace 6 suited. limp, limp, limp. call, call, call because of the pot odds, call, call, call. tank call, snap call, fold. check, bet. Now if I was at the table and saw what type of style each person plays then I could think differently but the betting pattern says these are the most likely hands.
What about Q8/K8 ? Two pairs ?
Could’ve easily been KQ hitting two pair on the river. For 600 I’m definitely paying to find out although I’d feel a lot more comfortable if I had the 8 of spades in my hand
cmon how is KQ calling with that flop?
@gerry o sullivan MP2 may have two over cards with a small bet size after the flop from hero. It's a good price to see what develops.
Multiway. MP 1 certainly had a Q. Maybe QK. MP 2 could have easily had 9 -10. Double gutter. As 1 of 4 combos hit, 3 didn't. I can find more bluffs than value hands as played out with that flop multi way. I'd call
Mp2 river bet sizing reeks of being bluffy. If you backdoor a flush in this spot you want to get value, not scare everyone away when hero and mp1 have already shown so much weakness by river, and along comes a great scare card. No way to narrow down mp2's range further from the poor hero raise sizing preflop, and small flop bet sizing multi way is going to encourage a lot of hands to stick around while in mp2 position.
I actually had a hand goes really well with the title of this video. I'll email it to Bart. We'll see if he takes it...
American Gangsta - 20%! would bet + fold $170 on the river. Some times people get scared of nut flush and just call Ts7s type hand. Hero would set his own price and still allow worse hands like Q6c to call.
Why bet small on the flop? Would you bet small with JJ? AK? Flop needs to be more polarized and then given the # of combo draws on the turn I would Overbet. Top set needs way more protection than Bart says. 54 double gutter. T9 double gutter turn. 97s open ended. 75s open ended. Then of course these can all turn combo draws on the turn. Would go about $60 into $105 on the flop, if you got 3 callers, pot would be 345 on the turn, then I'm going anywhere from 300-400 on the turn. If hero went 75 flop could possibly even jam the turn depending on # of callers. Combo draw is going to have close to 30% equity so anything less than pot is just giving direct odds.
More recently, I have been seeing Phelps at MGN
I would be tossing in a call. There are a lot of missed straight draws and only the ones that also happen to be flush draws beat you, plus the backdoor nut flush draw. You're just up against a lot of busted hands most of the time here... even queen x and king x betting wouldn't surprise me.
Stu, I play 2/5 at Live all the time. Do you know the villain in MP2?
You can fly any airplane into any public airport by right.
nice
This is hilarious. I played at Live one time, same exact flop, i have pocket 2’s and got coolered by 8s. Yikes
No one cares.
@@lakerfan1855 ya momma do
@@lakerfan1855 I care
Question: if villain has A8ss in range or even something like A3ss, why can't he have KQdd (backdoor flush possibility on the flop)? At 1/2 and 2/5 people bet for value when they think they finally "got there" all the time on turn and river...
This flop hits limping ranges. Like 79s, 75s, 54s double gut. I’d use 2/3rd sizing on flop
SHOUT OUT MURRLAND 🗣🗣
Soul read mp2
KK for mp2?
Don't think even double gutter without the BDFD should call the turn vs this big bet size? MP1 obvious cannot call due to not closing the action and facing potential raise from MP2. I am not sure if MP2 can call double gutter when hero bet and MP1 call. He is very likely just having 6 clean outs. Although he is closing the action and may have a chance to bluff IP when river go check check like this, I don't think this scenario happens enough for him to make the call. Also he is getting like 23% pot odds with only 6 clean outs, he needs quite a bit of implied odds to support his call and both players are not quite deep.
If we discount most straight draws without BDFD, then MP2 has to be turning a made hand into a bluff. However, if MP2 is defending approiately, his made hands should mostly be strong enough to take to the showdown. MP2 facing a big bet and a call should be folding most if not all of his 8x. Only made hand that can be turn into a bluff is A8s I think. As played if hero and MP1 is not checking any flush on the river, then MP2 can turn A8s into a bluff and it is going to be a super +EV bluiff if hero is folding set and MP1 is literally never bluff catching. However, the only A8s left is a flush already, so I don't think there is a weak enough made hand for MP2 to turn into a bluff. Surely he is not turning any sort of 2 pairs hand into a bluff right lol.
The last possibility for hero to be good here is that MP2 is slow playing a flopped set all the way to the river. As I mentioned above if hero and MP1 is not checking any flushes on the river then a set of 2/6 can actually consider going for value. The only question is that if MP2 will slowplay a set on the turn facing this action. I tend to think that most straightforward player will never slowplay a nutyish hand when the board is getting wet and facing a bet and a call.
After discounting all the possibilities above I think you are beat here like 90% of the time.
I would think 6/7 or 9/10 of spades would check raise the turn
I fold river too.
6:30 Going small on turn? Why?
Finally a street played well. The turn. Good sizing. Wayyyyyyyyy too many players……
100% had the flush.
I would've gone all in on turn
Top set became bluff catcher. I would bet a lot on the Turn
This is a tuf spot. I can clearly see the villain having 66 and 22 in this spot. Trying to slow play. Because from his perspective hero can have all the over pairs like aces and kings on the flop and turn. Once it’s checked to him on the river he can easily eliminate both guys having flushes and go for value. This is where we need to be watchful of other people’s betting pattern through out the session . Is mp2 is kind of a guy who will limp with small pairs like 66s or 22s preflop. If you have observed it before you have to call here . If he always raises those hands it might be a fold. Some people are commenting mp2 can have KQ. That’s very unlikely. Mp2 over calling after mp1 called on flop with no pair or draw is very unlikely. But there are some value hands that got there . A2 , A8, 9 10, 7 9 of spades
If he has all the over pairs then even passive players are going to raise with a set on the flop or turn to build a pot, especially with another player in the middle. Villian snap called the turn. The turn was a large bet. Villian didn't think about raising or folding. This would be more indicative of a good draw.
15:26 except 79, I do not see what MP2 missed on large turn call?? 2 pairs nor a top pair would play this way. So: folding of set is a reasonable action.
Wouldn't theory say call since ur at the top of your range and theory states folding to a single bet at the top of your range on the river makes you extremely exploitable?
Against balanced players who are playing GTO. Goes out the window when you face likely passive player who open limps. In practice it's never wrong to fold 100% of your range in certain spots. Just the way the cookie crumbles some times.
@@RunItTw1ce4858 the other point to make is that GTO stuff only applies if you yourself are playing optimally.
I’ve no idea what a GTO solver does vs a limp and two calls in front preflop with 88, but I’d guess it raises a fair bit larger.
Since hero made a mistake early in the hand the whole rest of the game tree is off the rails vs what GTO would say.
Check raising the flop? When you have 3 others in, any of whom could have a pair or pick up a draw? No, betting as though you have a pair is perfect here.
snap call on turn, he has the nut flush.
As a Peabody native, I am extremely interested to know where your from lmao
Any chance the guy simply has pocket Queens? The flush or a bluff are of course more likely but the way the hand was played I had Queens in my mind pretty much the entire time.
So you think he limps preflop with pocket Queens and then only calls the small raise afterwards(also preflop)?
I thought maybe that too, but double flatting with a guy behind with queens is super strange to me. Feels like queens would have taken advantage of the caller's low sizing preflop. Also without the queen of spades, it would be a weird spot to turn queens into a bluff. That's just my thoughts at least
limping pre flop with QQ?
If he’s trapping and trying to get as much value as possible, yeah, maybe.
Obviously would prefer to have 8s in hand, but still have to call here. If you're folding a flopped top set, what are you calling with? You only have to be right about 30% of time and MDF is ~57%. Call top 2 and better and if you're beat, you're just unlucky.
Probably a good fold.
MP A8 sooooted maybe. But he wouldn’t show even for $$. I feel like that means he had it but also maybe he wasn’t proud of it. Maybe it was something weird 82 spades or something. Huh
I would have called. To me this screams 4,5 that flopped double gutter. Limps for cheap pre flop. Flops double gutter. Gets great prices on both streets. Stabs river.
I'm not sure what Ax of spades are floating flop that don't bet turn.
I am a regfish, and a station, and I would call "because I'm at the top of my range, eeee-aww, eeee-awww"
LOL, with ya.. I gotta see if my top set is really beat
im snap calling thats why im a losing fish
Don't think bart pushes back hard enough on the preflop sizing. The guy basically admitted to sizing his hand. That's an absolute no-no
If a Block Bet isn’t useful here I don’t know where one would be.
i think Bart missed hands like KhQh and KdQd that had back doors on the flop and were then top pair on the turn and therefore could call and on the river they are top two and when checked to now definitely seem like the best hand and 100% would be value betting, so those combined with 22's, 66's 79, 75, and 910 i think make this a call as there are enough bluffs and value hands that you beat here
From a theory perspective those combos shouldn't be defending in a multi way pot. I think that's why Bart didn't address those combos
@@brandondorsey7204 normally yes but MP2 is in position so it’s not unlikely they might peel the flop and after that the hand plays itself
@sean aria MD so what percentage of a combo are you putting in for KQ with flopped back doors? .25 of a combo? That doesn't really change the math. If you assume full combos of KhQh and KdQd you're over estimating how many combos show up there with the general player pool. All on all, the impacts of those hands imo are negligible
Limp call
@@BLUFFIRL this is low stakes live poker, people do all kinds of things
Call call call enough stuff bricked out for me plus imagine MP2 bets worse sets on river
This is why you don’t cbet so tiny on flop, and let all nonsense backdoor draws see turns for cheap.
Bart please pick more hands in which villian reveals his/her hand…. Its just more educational that way
no
It was me, I had 2 7 of diamonds .
Never liking raising this type of hand with 3 limpers and big blind behind me. Flop is going to be almost impossible to navigate
But ya if we raise, we make it 8-12x preflop. Soooo let’s just limp in and not play a speculative situation for a big pot u know?
There was a time where there was NO WAY anyone alive would fold middle set here
Thanks to training sites.
Hero has top set.
What is in the drawer?
I shove the turn
It was a good fold. I also think it's balanced because he gets here with better hands he can call with QQ, KK. If he doesn't get here with KK for some reason it's closer though
how would he get here with QQ and KK with this preflop action?
9-10 is open ended? Double gutter.
10s 7s
Gross spot played everything right but you are beat most of the time AsXs is so much of his range...
I don't understand 2 spades show up WHY ARE YOU NOT BOMBING THE TURN???????????????????????????
KQ
Ridiculous. If hero does not call with top set; what can he ever call with here?
I agree.
Think long think wrong. No decision should take more than 20 seconds
It’s gross because it feels like both players are on draws
First?
East coast are complainers. I played live my first time and flopped top straight on my first hand and this loser kept calling me. Naturally I won and this guy would not stop complaining all night long... until I left
Anti-climatic ....
yeah i would leave these calls out because it just leaves everyone guessing and you cant conclude wether it was a good fold or not.
Limpers are gamblers. They want to hit a hand. The likelihood they are bluffing on the river is very low.
That open was awful, need to go to $50 or just complete
Do u ever get here with a better hand than 88 ? I feel like u might have to grit ur teeth and call
Im gay
not a good fold
Way too tight fold. People are giving back doors too much credit.