The Truth About the 911 Carrera Market in 2023: Unveiling Price Trends That Could Cost You
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 มิ.ย. 2024
- Porsche 911 Carrera prices stabilized in the last three months. But there are big differences between the generations.
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Advertised times dropped drastically in the Porsche 911 Carrera market and this is reflected in the price development. Depreciation rates decreased or even turned into appreciation rates during the last three months. Yet, taking a longer perspective, we can see that there are large differences between the generations. 992 Carreras lost up to 15% while some 996 Carreras lost almost nothing.
The overall trend is in line with the rest of the car market. Therefore, it seems unlikely that we are looking at a market bottom.
Content:
00:00 Depreciation in 2023
00:24 Market overview
02:11 Advertised times
04:58 992 price trends
08:21 991 price trends
10:20 997 price trends
11:22 996 price trends
12:57 Conclusion
Disclaimer: The Content is for educational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this video constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy or sell any cars. The information published has been obtained from or is based on sources which are believed to be accurate and complete. Although reasonable care has been taken, the completeness and the accuracy of any information published cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions may be wrong and may change at any time. You should always carry out your own independent verification of facts and data before making any purchase decision. - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
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*More recent market update*
th-cam.com/video/7GOFAvX8BTE/w-d-xo.htmlsi=LMzoBDFQ0pzjnWgs
I find your analysis really interesting and thank you very much for the way you present it, it’s really informative. If at all possible, could you provide a review of all 911’s starting from 1963, even predating that to include 356 variants. I think it would be very interesting to see how the markets differ
Thanks Harlan, great analysis as always. It’s always interesting to see where generations differ in regards to their depreciation curve.
I live for these videos !!, thanks for all the work you put into this stuff
It is great to hear that you like them.
Thank you so much for these market updates!
I appreciate your work, this is great info.
Great analysis as always! Would be interesting to see these recent trends in the context of longer term trends over the past several years (if you have the data) to see if we're returning to pre-covid market behaviour. Covid really skewed and distorted prices. It's good to see prices are at least finally dropping instead of shooting up higher.
Unfortunately I do not have much timeseries from before covid, but I have a few snapshot that can be used for the model year premiums and depreciation per 1000 miles.
So is the market for 997 4S that much smaller compared to the 996 4S that there is no reliability in the data. I’m also curious on how some options (Aero) effect prices. Though I am sure the sample size is too small to get a reliable number. I did appreciate how you, in the past, separated out auto vs manual.
Btw even though I have a 997.1 I still watch your other videos because I appreciate the analysis of cars I may someday buy, keep up the good work
I am in the 997 market already for a while and it is absolute plateu without any reasonable supply, so would not be surprised it goes up again.
Always a great video on Porsche values. Thank you.
Absolutely outstanding analysis. Thanks
Great video. Are the trends you analyzed representative for the European market too?
thank you so much for your videos these are the best.
Great analysis as always. I know it's not a typical car for you, but could you do a video on the BMW 8 series?
I’ve got a pretty rare GT silver 991.2, it’s a 4S manual with PDCC and RAS and other options like red and black interior. Got it last October for 130K with 12k miles on it. Has SPASM and sports chrono too. Oddly enough does not have PSE.
Again interesting.
About the advertising times a thought occurred to which also you referred in the end. That is the seasonal effect. Spring is usually thought to be the best selling time - especially with cabrios and motorcycles. Should you do a broader normalized study about the seasonal effect, like saloons, sports cars, SUVs, Evehicles - and perhaps all split in two three categories by price?
Falling car prices are only a problem if you intend selling your 911.... why would anyone sell their 911????
Always a great analysis Harold. Any chance we see something on BMW M cars? Maybe the F8X Gen?
In Canada, 992 versions had ZERO brand news ones for sale a couple months ago, now there are 15 2023's across all of Canada.. Prices for used seem to be dropping slightly. I have seen some of the same ones for sale on dealers and independant web sites for months. I have seen a silver 2021 with 18,000 km on it for sale now for 9 months. Prices need to drop more.
there is still a one year wait here, they should continue to go for over msrp used
Thank you for the video
In February I ordered 4 GTS and was not able to get any discount from a tag price. Luckily for me, the dealer made a mistake and the car came wrongly specced (did not comply with my order). Because my local dealer did not have another allocation for this year for 4 GTS I called another one and was able to get a 6% discount. So I assume that supply problems have ended and as we are facing some economic issues in a lot of countries the demand is going down too... Nevertheless, I am looking forward to getting my 911 in October, and I don't care how much it will depreciate. :)
Hi great analysis as usual I enjoy your objective analysis. I ant to pick your brain if you have to buy a 911 after 2018 which one would you get for your self?
Great vídeo ! You forget the 991 Carrera T , year 2018 ! Thanks !
Porsche just raised prices almost 10% for 2024 models. This prices are going up, both new and used, not down. Demand is going up, not down and inventory is scarce. This is not by accident. Dealer markups continue and for some models approach 20%. You may keep wishing sir, but the 911 is an increasing price point and this fact is quite obvious in the US market. The problem is supple vs demand for arguably the best sports car in the world so it is not likely to change anytime soon.
Views on 997.2 Turbo with PCCB, center locks. Is this going to hold its value relatively well? I just bought one for $92k with 57k miles, good shape, dealer put $12k into replacing carbon fiber interior touch points, other services.
Your channel is awesome. I would appreciate a video on BMW Z8. Thank you
I have a 991.2 with a manual transmission. Just from scanning classifieds and auctions it appears that the manuals are holding their values better. Are there stay to back up what I'm thinking? I neither selling nor buying but just curious.
I have a feeling that pdk 992.1s will soften in demand.
I think ppl are not a fan of only being able to use paddles .. curious what happens for the .2s
The 991.2 is worth the premium thanks to much improved EPAS (electrical power steering), modern steering wheel/airbag, more power from the turbocharged engine, and upgraded infotainment with CarPlay support
That is a highly subjective comment. The wealth level and age are quite decisive. Younger generations appreciate all the electronic gimmicks and the old school drivers see practically no value in them. More and more I seem to hear comments the modern cars are boring. They are shifting away from a traditional car towards computers. Obviously people have different motivations too. Some are looking for a daily while others are looking for a weekend/hobby car. The primary function of a car is that it can take you or goods to somewhere. The secondary is they way it takes you there and everything else is tertiary.
Further more 911 is not really a normal car. There is a legend involved and you can ask a petrol head which 911 would you take if money was no obstacle. I dont think many would choose a 992. I think even better test is to offer: “Here is 500 000 for you but you must buy any 911 with it and the rest of the money you can keep. Which one do you take?” I doubt not too many would choose a 992. I am pretty sure a lot would choose a 964 or 993, those towards other sensible investments would choose the cheapest ones like 996/997 or a 2.4/2.7. I believe very few would choose 992. It would have to be about the image of a virgin new car, impressing neighbours and superficiality.
@@juhakivekas2175 A 992 is an outstanding 911 - I put more than 35k miles on mine. Modern features don’t take away from the experience. As for older air cooled models, the 964/993 are priced beyond reason. The 996 cars and the 991.1 are the closest thing to affordable 911 entry points right now. Logically, the 997 should be an entry point, but the hysteria around those cars being more analog (they’re not) has driven prices to stupid places. I disagree with you on the “normal car” part. IMHO, a 911 is at its best when treated and driven like a normal car. They’re entirely practical and usable. A 911 can turn every errand into an event.
@Juha Kivekäs agree its the same phenomenon with all these green screen DC/Marvel movies...give me a Martin Scorsese movie any day of the week
@@detansinn9882 NO, no, no.
You say "a 992 is worth the premium." You have not thought this till the end. Let me try to open this for you.
Let's say you have something around 200 000+USD/Eur. And you think buying, say a 992 C4S. But you are optionally considering buying a mint condition second hand 996 Turbo S and this would leave you at least 120 000 USD/Eur to spend on something else. The relevant question is which way you increase the value of your life the most. Depending on your character you could buy with the difference several fantastic musical instruments, a fabulous boat, you could equip your garage with the best tools and still have money for a Porsche mech to moonlight for you, you could get tens of the most beautiful and skillful courtesans to fulfill your secret dreams, you could buy a hut from the mountains next to the best B-roads, a nice car for your wife/kids, around the world tour for all your family, get a couple of optimum genes German shephards, buy a little airplane and the license - and with 120 000 you could easily start some new business to give a lifelong meaning not only to you but perhaps your family too.
For me this is a no brainer. I certainly would not use the difference for the premium of 992 because the 996 is more fun, more committing and I could get so much more with the rest of the money. And - the Turbo has done its depreciation where as all the new Carreras depreciate.
Yes, the 992 is a great car - all 911s are. But no, it is not worth the premium.
There is no discussion, 991.1 is Naturally Aspirated and they are highly desirable engines
Please could you show the stats for 718 spyder as i am in market but omg prices are high and don’t coming down. Could you please analyse? Thanks and subscribed.
Always enjoy your videos. PLEASE do a video on the radical depreciation curve which is impacting the Porsche Taycan market right now. These cars are losing 10’s of thousands of dollars in value every few months. Seems to be driven by forthcoming improved battery technology, reduction in EV pricing by Tesla and the drop in cost for Gasoline.
They are coming down indeed, I will post a market update in the upcoming weeks.
Can you make a video with the comparison of coupe and cabriolet on S and GTS?
Thank you for your information!
So good! Thank you as always. I’m looking at a 997.2 GTS, but market is super thin .. guess it was too small to include due to unreliable statistics at that size? Also the higher spec 911s can be skewed dramatically by options, carbon ceramics, etc. so tough to pin down the value. Guess it’s worth what someone will pay for it!
I haven’t seen one of these cars go for sale in a long while
Check ryan Friedman motor cars and udrive automobiles .. seen a few on there recently
oh man! i wish you did this for the air cooled 911s!
I just bought a 2022 911 Carrera S model. I’m shocked the prices haven’t dropped 25% the next day! 😂
Congratulations, did you go pdk or manual?
I know that feeling.
Got a 991.1 GTS C2 cab just 6 months ago. I love the N/A engines and it was the last more powerful N/A available in cab configuration. The sensation is that the numbers of available cars of this kind is lowering rapidly and the price rising. Also the production numbers of this model are quite low. In Italy there is none available in mint or near mint conditions with less than 50k miles
991.1 last NA I’m hoping it stays desirable
These videos are awesome. Any thoughts on including data from Bring a Trailer and Cars & Bids? I've found the prices there to be pretty solid reflections of the true market due to the relatively knowledgeable user base.
Currently I have no plans to include that data as it comes with several limitation and caveats. Perhaps in the future.
good work!
992 prices are trending down but only for pdk cars. Manual cars are still a 10-20k premium.
Manuals are on average 5k more expensive but the price trend is similar as in the PDK market. Supply, however, is a lot lower. The premium can therefore be affected by the spec level.
Hi, my name is Max, what do think about 997.1 2007 S reliability and price depreciation! Thank you I like your analysis. Cheers 👍🏻
Great data, as always. QUESTION: are sports cars / exotic cars being repo'd in large numbers % wise like regular cars? There are many TH-camrs talking about the flood of cars being repo'd and dumped at auction, which is going to send prices plummeting. Are rich folks walking away from / defaulting on their sports car loans too? You see a LOT of 1, 2, & 3 yr old Porsches for sale compared to how many were sold. Wonder if their speculation hopes have run aground? I hope so, ha ha.
Repo supply indeed increased but it did so from very low levels. Estimated Repo supply for 2023 is still below pre-pandemic values. Unfortunately, I can not see the break-down of the repos (sport/luxury/suv etc). Car loan default rates also increased from very low levels to pre-pandemic levels, but have been decreasing since February.
TH-camrs who are working with repos/auctions/dealers etc. might have more up to date information. However, based on the aggregate data I think that it is more accurate to interpret a so called 'flood' as a 'back to normal situation'.
I am seeing 991.1 (2016) GTS models going up now. Would this be due to the last year the N/A car was made before going turbo? Are these models going to go the way of the air cooled? Prices are holding firm and many are up over last year even in this market. Thoghts?
So it doesn't really matter if I buy a 991.1 now or wait? Just a little higher price due to seasonality
When you are 80 years old and can't drive anymore you aren't going to reminisce about how much you were able to sell your Porsche for. You're gonna reminisce about driving the damn thing. Just buy the one you want and drive the damn thing.✌
Can we get some latest updates on the Taycan market
The railway was still there in the early 60s, I remember that. I believe the leaf have what it takes. Grit, to win the Stanley Cup this season
I keep regretting selling my 991.2 on May 2021. Looks like the 911 market is not coming down anytime soon and not willing to pay ridiculous $ for a 911. Will have to wait a bit more and get something fun in the meantime, Lotus Evora GT, M3 comp, C63S?.
I have been considering trading my 991.2 base but after this video I think I will hold off
Very insightfull analyses brought clear and factual. Are there such analyses for European countries e. g. The Netherlands?
Thanks. I am working to include the German market in the videos, but it still takes a while before it will appear on the channel
Good one
I would love to see an analysis of the Mini Cooper market.
Great analysis! Could you please do the same analysis for turbos only?!
Here you go: th-cam.com/video/Rp2kScKkar4/w-d-xo.html
@@fourwheeltrader wonderful, thank you! And sorry I missed it
Very illustrative video explaining how differnt factors affect car values. How about those rare models such Targa and GT2/GT3; if the exclusivity of then make any value difference from base or S models?
I built a 2022 that I saw for sale, the build price based on the specs was $228,000 canadian for a 4S...... the asking is $209,000. So for a 2022 didnt seem too bad, also in Canada we have a new tax on cars over $100,000... So there would be another 20,000 in tax on top of the 228,000....... this is bolstering used prices...
What you want is a situation where the mileage has gone up x% but the price has overshot to the downside. The example of 2020 vs 2023 with 10k miles more or however much, proves that this is still a poor time to buy. The simplest way to estimate whether it is *probably* good is the unemployment rate. In the US, it's at 3.7%. A recession usually spikes above 6%. At 6% or more, very likely the car market is in distress and deals will be had.
While you’re over there waiting for a good time to buy, I’m just out here having a good time.
I’m interested in buying a 992 but I’m struggling finding a good time to buy. Im hoping late this year when the .2 comes out and dealers are trying to get rid of .1’s will help.
Buy a 911 T! It is the best 911.
@@1q2w3e4r5t6zism even as a pdk? What’s the different between that and the base carrera?
Price gotten outrageous in last couple months. 993 coupe was 6-70k early this year. Now 90k+. Also 991 increased about 10k and 997 turbo manuals went 70k to over 100k. Im on cargurus everyday trying to find right 911 for me.
Damn bastard bought $87k 991 gts CPO i was planning to purchase from MA.
Same boat. Prices are coming down everyday hold steady
Would LOVE to see your analysis on aircooled Porsches, and Audi R8’s
R8s are covered on the channel, have a look the latest update: th-cam.com/video/wOAP5G3ly9U/w-d-xo.html
@@fourwheeltrader thank you!
The trick here is to predict the lower price a given model will reach and buy it there (used car, as low mileage as possible) and then keep for a long time, while it turns into classic. On the verge of hybridization or electric (even if Porsche announces the 911 is not (YET) going on batteries) also the gas and furthermore, manual shifter cars will increase their historical value and become valued, coveted, classics in time. Particularly if they were models of significance or simply beautiful), beauty, in cars, is eternal, unlike with us ;D and certainly a very important factor in long term valuation. Also, remember that, as far as there is inflation, if you have your chips on a product that does not degrades, it will always valuate. With cars that might be sort of... Complicated, but if you treat it well, do the proper maintenance in time, proper engine warm up before driving and, well, use it only as a leisure drive (not a daily driver) you can expect it to keep value throughout time, thus, in fact, increase its face value. I would risk say that the LAST GT2 or even GT3 full gas, manual shifter (or even PDK if there is no manual version) price will SKYROCKET to the million zone a couple of decades or even less after its launch.
It's amazing that high interest rates seem to have done little to slow prices, on the contrary. People are trying to sell 996TTs for $70K now. At dealers, 991.1s $25K more expensive than 4 years ago, basically back to sticker, with 997.2s on par. There's no depreciation in pre 992 911s since 2019. With this little price elasticity in cash-rich demand, maybe it's true that this isn't a bubble to pop anytime soon. Did the hot 60s muscle car market ever cool off with Boomers starting to die off?
Yes, absolutely the muscle car market cooled off and more deals, especially only overly built customs, could be found (think something a boomer paid $200k to have a shop build that now sold at Barret for $50k). Honestly, the truth is, there are probably more people out there with cash on hand able to make these purchases than you realize, and the interest rates will never factor into their decisions.
I think you should get into more detail about the specific trim levels. For example a Carrera 4S versus just an S, and more importantly, Cabriolets and Targas. Targas historically are the strongest 911s in holding their value and have only been eclipsed by the GT craze in the past 2-3 years. My mom has a 2018 Targa 4 GTS and in it's condition she could sell it for exactly what she paid for it, if not more, even 5 years later.
The targas and 4s are separate categories indeed. Targas are not covered in this video and only the 996 market includes the 4S models.
@@fourwheeltrader fair enough, and I see how they are too different to fit into this analysis. I would love if you did make a video about these other models though! I’m also super happy I took a statistics class this last semester as I have a new appreciation for your videos!
I was going to buy a 911 Turbo S 2023. But the prices of new ones have increased so sharply I've decided just to pass on it altogether. It used to be a good deal not anymore at nearly $300k fully loaded
Yeah, and the Cayman went from 50k to 70k
There are no cars in my state New Jersey you can hardly find a brand new Porsche. I’ve owned four of them. What the hell is going on I thought there a publicly traded company. This is what we can expect?
when is the best to know to buy a 992? I am looking for one, but I want it to know when it will bottom out? Would it bottom out, when the new 911 releases which is 992.2 ?
Rumor is the 992.2 goes back to NA. I’d imagine the .1s will drop if that’s the case.
@@kevinmartin4543 they won;t bro, it make 0 sense to go back to NA, when turbo is better in every way
@@PANEHYBRID the already did in the 718 GTS. Dropped the turbo and went to the 4.0.
@@kevinmartin4543 that make sense when the base motor is a i4, but all 992 are turbo i6, so what is the point? The turbo s and even 4s are faster then a gt3, unless you tracking the car then gt3 is faster but how many of us are really tracking the car
Dealer is asking $35k over on a new (MY 23) C4GTS landing in 2 months. What should I offer over Msrp, if anything?
In the NY tristate area it was about 15% over MSRP...there is so much cash out there and limited supply that the dealers are getting what they ask. Negotiate now before it even arrives as others are probably deciding on it like you.
Find another dealership. Plenty out there without ADM
Have you thought to consider the value of the dollar itself in the analysis? The value of a dollar has changed significantly between 2020 and 2023 with inflation so high, so the changes are even more. A car that “didn’t lose any value” actually did lose quite a bit of value just due to inflation when we’re comparing single digit percentages or low double digits.
Yes, I am planning to add inflation adjusted trends.
Finally, someone brings this aspect up!
Certainly, market values are brought up on this channel and he does a fantastic job doing so! But I've not heard the inflation factor being brought in, yet.
Thanks for bringing this up. No one's talking about it and they should!
996 Turbo. It’s the best fun. Prices haven’t moved in 5 years
Price differentials with newer 992 cars are probably because these cars are almost new and mileage is low.
I can agree from the trenches. I've been searching for the right car for over a year. I still haven't found one. Manual transmissions modern 911's are almost non existent.
911 T
I owned 2021 porsche 992 turbo S with 15000 miles…I was paid 25K more then I was paid and they ordered me a new 2023 model car.
Gt3 analysis pls
Have a look at the latest gt3 video in the porsche playlist.
Good luck finding a new 2023!! 996 time bomb!! LOL
Over infilate price?
difference between 991.1 and .2 is definitely not justified, no enthusiast will bother, mainstream consumers will bother with the price difference
Can you start doing plots with different types of lines (dashed, solid, etc.) and markers (dot, square, triangle, X, etc.) to help the color blind people out?
Owning & driving a 911 was never about price!
Porsche 991.1. Is the new classic hands down Plus rocks. All others On. Sound Naturally aspirated baby last one last real car no turbo assistance please I want to hear that engine screen a block away and per like a kitten at a red light sounds better than a Ferrari F355 Berlinetta trust me on that one
If you like to buy a Porsche, buy a 991.1S! they are hard to find in good condition with low miles on it.
What about the Tesla Plad?
There are very few cars out there. I look everyday.
The "Truth"........they are like "unobtanium".......sadly only for the ultrarich.
:(
Appreciate your videos, but have a suggestion. Eliminate the typing, bell sound effects. I found them highly annoying and distracting.
You should start a Porscheconomics course at Harvard. 😂😅
The 992 911 has never been particularly popular - its the taxi cab of 911s.
Wait, isn’t that the current car now?
@@videogazer801 Yes
@@VK6AB- there are barely any used ones for sale. It’s seems like this new generation is selling out and almost no one is selling theirs
@@videogazer801 low production runs due to supply issues and long time buyers haven't been that interested in the 992. I ditched my 992 GT3 RS allocation in favour of a 296 GTB and elected to keep my 991.2 GT3 RS (last real genuine road useable RS). Most touring buyers prefer the 991.2 GT3 touring as well.
@@VK6AB- holy shit, you actually own a good Porsche. That’s nice.
Most people I know have the garbage ones.
I sold my 991 hoping that 992 prices would go down. Nothing you said is accurate, you disregard production shortages, delivery delays and other factors. 992 are more expensive than ever and are not going down… there is no significant drop…and it won’t be at least until 992.2 is released. Sorry you’re full of BS.
When is the next gen being released?
Why not just add to the conversation without the BS comment? Be a gentleman.
What i say is based on data for the complete US market. Your observation might not be representative of the market trend.
This channel is all about talking bad about Porsche. What up ? Doesn’t even seem credible what you so mad, what they do to you ?
What about all the videos about increasing porsche values? The videos are about value developments irrespective of the direction.
Super odd but BMW E39, E60, E36, E46 😅