Great car but you always will want more after a while. Come back and comment when you decide to go to a 911 GT model or GT4. I think you’ll be back in a year or two. 718 spider looks fantastic and I’ve never driven one so I could be talking $hite.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:27 📉 *The average depreciation for Porsche models over the past year was 7%, with most experiencing a depreciation between 3 and 10%.* 02:42 🚗 *The Taycan, especially the Turbo and Turbo S models, dominated the top 20% of cars that experienced the most significant losses, with prices plummeting.* 04:52 🔄 *Panameras, while still experiencing losses, fared better than the Taycan, with an average depreciation of 16% compared to Taycan's 28%.* 05:17 💰 *The top 5 cars with the least depreciation were all Boxers or Caymans, with 981 and 718 GT4s showing exceptional performance.* 10:18 📈 *911s performed well, showing resilience in holding value, with the overall Porsche market experiencing an average depreciation of 7%.* Made with HARPA AI
Incredible amount of work and detailed analysis, yet again. Thank You Harald, for sharing all your hard work in 2023 and I wish you a Very Merry Christmas! Cheers
This channel rocks! How does this channel NOT have more views??!!! I immediately watch every report right away. Even if it hurts to be reminded how much I’ve lost on my McLaren.
What an amazing overview and data, thank u so much. Awesome vid u are getting to perfection. It’s also astonishing to see how strong the Porsches are on value retention even in turbulent times
This rings true in my state. It is very easy to find a new or used Taycan (any trim or the sport turismo) at any Colorado Porsche dealer. Used 992's and 991's are rare and new 911's are simply not available.
Another great video. I always like hearing direct recommendations, such as the downward risk in the 992 market. Get an older model to hedge that risk. Not rocket science, but backed by data. Thank you!
Thank you. Good job. It would be interesting to add macan and Cayenne. Interesting to observe differences between us and french Porsche market. Happy New year !
@@Tom55data who cares. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand that certain Porsche models will depreciate very heavily …What matters is real life data when somebody buys that heavily depreciated Porsche product called Taycan at around 80k to 100,000 miles. It will require a new battery pack and your local Porsche dealer will have absolutely no remorse on you and will charge you $50,000 to replace that battery pack.
Very valid point! I think the depreciation will be heavy.. but also depends on EV charge infrastructure- developed or undeveloped… would drive the prices
When I saw the photo for the video I got excited if you were going to look at price trends based on the color of the cars. That might be something interesting to look at and I think many people ordering cars would be interested in that specifically for Porsches and Porsche models, such as GT cars vs. non-GT cars, Caymans vs 911s, etc. an idea for you that would be fun.
Please do another Panamera model line up depreciation now that the 2024 “new” design is out. A refresh of your previous video from two years ago. Thanks!! 🙏
Glad to see my 981 Cayman S and 718 GT4RS are holding their values. If I were buying an entry-level model I think non-S 981s right now are a great value. You should be able to pick up a good one now for around $35KUSD. Drive it for a few years and sell it for $35K or more.
Always great videos. Thank you. I have some of the most depreciated Porsches. 987 Cayman S(manual) 996 Turbo S(manual) and 970 PDK. I love them all and won’t sell. I got them all at great prices. I think my 996 has gone up a lot. Cheers boys.
Great video and analysis - as always. Thank you. Any insight on where 981 Boxster, Boxster S & 981 Cayman & Cayman S fit in to the mix? I didn't see them included.
When depreciation is quoted on a car model, is it based on what people actually pay for it, or MSRP + destination fee? Similarly, is the current value based on selling it to a dealer, or a private party?
My car is a 2018 Audi TTRS. There aren’t many of them. They are a great car and Audi has discontinued the model. I would think that would increase the demand and used price but has it?
I’m not worried about depreciation in the least. I have a Boxster S and I’m geriatric Boxster Spyder to go with it. I don’t plan on selling them. Also the Germans are environmental extremists. Porsche has said it won’t make gas powered cars in a few more years. When that happens all old Porsches will be collectibles of a sort.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:00 🚗 *Introduction to Porsche depreciation analysis* - Discussing the importance of understanding Porsche depreciation, - Mentioning the upcoming analysis of the Lamborghini Market, - Providing an overview of the Porsche Market with year-over-year price changes. 01:23 📊 *Porsche models with higher depreciation rates* - Identifying Porsche models that experienced significant depreciation (e.g., Tyon and Panamera), - Explaining the trends and price drops in the Tyon market, - Analyzing the GTS and Turbo market depreciation. 03:37 📉 *Comparing Tyon and Panamera depreciation* - Contrasting Tyon and Panamera models by model year and type, - Highlighting how Panameras generally depreciated less than Tyons, - Returning to the overall Porsche marketoverview. 05:43 📈 *Porsche models with lower depreciation rates* - Discussing Porsche models that experienced lower depreciation, - Focusing on Boxers, Cays, and GT4s with price stability, - Noting that some older Porsche models also held their value well. 08:55 🧮 *Summary and conclusions* - Summarizing the analysis of Porsche depreciation rates, - Emphasizing the impact of the pandemic on car prices, - Recommending avoiding Tyon and Panamera for better resale value, - Suggesting older models from the list of lower depreciation for buyers. Made with HARPA AI
Porsche Panamera 1st series (970) is not only the most beautiful (with lines close to 993 Panamerican) but also still depreciating (except top conditions Turbo and GTS), it will be in the next a must for collectors.
Thanks, great overview. Why not buy a 2022 Taycan with a discount of 50k (this is what you can get!)? This brings the car in a price range where it starts to be really interesting to compare the 1 year old Taycan with brand new competitors! Still it is a Porsche with world class engineering you won’t get elsewhere…
I believe that the 2025 Porsche 911 model range will be only offered with a hybrid system and will only be offered with an automatic. Thus my expectation would be that last model year (all ice) 992.1's will appreciate in price substantially. It has not been proven to be a great investment to invest in battery based hybrid sports cars and I don't see the market being particularly excited by a stop gap hybrid Porsche 911 before an all electric Porsche 911. Likewise based mostly on rarity and secondly on few to no new offerings, I believe that any 992 911 with a manual will also appreciate in value. It is said that across the worldwide production of the 992 that 1 in 10 cars have a manual.
I approach this from the opposite direction. I see rapid depreciation as an opportunity to get a great car At an incredibly cheap price. I'm particularly interested in a normally aspirated Panamera S V8. I can afford to buy one but I'm not sure I can afford to own one. At current prices for these older car's depreciation is much less of an issue than maintenance and repairs. So if it costs $10,000. For a brake job or $1,200. For an oil change or $5,000. To change the spark plugs I'm not in the market. I would like to see an evaluation of cost of ownership of these cars including normal maintenance plus likely points of failure and cost of repair.
@chipparker3950 I agree with you, I approach it the same way. For that reason, I wish his analysis was a bit more nuanced and detailed rather than just this corporate-style, high-level overview which may suffice in the board room or at conference but not for making informed our purchasing decisions. I’d like to see more analysis of where the sweet spot is at the moment on the depreciation curve, with detailed examples of true cost of ownership including depreciation until the car is X years old (eg 7 or even 10) or say for a desired 3 or 4 years of ownership, and for various mileage cases. Depreciation is not linear so a case can be made for each model at any given time what’s the most efficient economically to buy. If a 2 year old stay an has lost two-third of its value, I don’t think “stay away” is the best recommendation but “run and buy”. Also predictions of future market value/predictions based on rumours/confirmations of upcoming models and/or facelifts, popularity of and buzz around certain models, new car sales, economic forecasts etc is much more useful than just past depreciation. And what is this compensation for changes in market composition? If the supply side has changed, the impact on prices are real for values and ownership, so why compensate?
@@NiToNi2002 Thanks for your feedback. It is extremely valuable for me to hear what type of analyses you are interested in. In the last year i have focused more on high level videos that include all model types of a certain model (e.g. all taycan models at once). The idea behind this is that it attracks a wider audience. Naturally, this means that some details are lost as I cannot prioritize producing a 60 min video every week. Nevertheless, I think it is interesting to work on the total cost of ownership and it is something that i am developing. It, however, requires the ability to predict the depreciation curve (including inherent uncertainty in this curve) given the car's characteristics and the current macro-economic forecasts. Naturally, this would over a long time period be more acurate than using the current depreciation rate only. Current rates, however, are suitable for cars that are still in production and for short term forecasts. When it comes to the current depreciation curves, i am already pointing out where relevant if depreciation rates are decreasing or not (see for example the last taycan video or the SF90 curve in the Ferrari video). That is, if we are getting close to a possible inflection point. Specifically for the mileage, I did a full video that showed which cars are at an inflection point regarding their mileage sensitivty. The compensation for changes in market composition refers to adjusting the aggregate numbers to account for differences in the sample over time. For instance, if a lot of extremely high(low) mileage cars are pushed to the market, it will push the prices down(up). It would be wrong to state that this price change reflects an actual change, it merely reflects a change in the underlying sample. I hope this clarifies some things.
@@fourwheeltrader Yes it does, thank you. I appreciate the work that must go in to producing these videos and I for one am very grateful for them. They fill a unique void in the content available, especially for the UK market, so kudos to you and keep up the good work! Looking forward to see the changes and additions you outlined implemented over time 👍😃
Do the long term depreciation curves for Porsche look different than the rest of the market? In other words, does it take longer or shorter amount of time to hit price stability than for other brands? I’m not sure if you have data for this or not.
Great content, sir! I’m torn between a Lotus Evora GT and a 718 GT4. Evora GT is significantly cheaper, but I’m concerned that depreciation will come roaring in once the Emira becomes more common. Also, since the 718 GT4 is still fairly new, I wonder what depreciation will look like in the next few years if I get one. I suppose it will always be buffered by the older 981 GT4… Other than the tax savings on the cheaper Lotus, I wonder if it’ll be more expensive in the long run (next 5 yrs) due to depreciation.. What do you think Harald?
This video shows the GT4 and evora price trends at 08:40 th-cam.com/video/1UXeZUsD9j8/w-d-xo.html Evoras are doing quite well but it is difficult to predict how the market will react once the Emira arrives in large numbers in the US. I am planning to look into this during Q1 next year but for the UK market.
With the new Caymans becoming electric, it’s hard to see a scenario where an ICE GT4 won’t hold value much better than a Lotus. I bought a new 981 GT4 in 2015 and sold it in September of ‘22 for $10K more than I paid when I bought my GT3. It was a rock solid car with no issues. A Lotus would have me worried about possible quality issues.
@@993mike thanks for the input Mike. I think I'm going to have to go with the 718 gt4. not sure if it'll be worth an extra 10 grand in seven years, but most likely won't lose as much as the lotus. So I guess it's the prudent thing to do as far as pissing away money on cars goes anyway.
The 718 GT4 (and Spyder) are no longer available new - Porsche stopped taking orders earlier this year as they are being discontinued. The only new ones being built right now are for existing orders. If you want a GT4 you'll have to buy used.
now let's add 3.1% inflation rate of 2023 and 6.5% inflation for 2022. so and so if you owned the car longer. So the take away is no one is winning, unless it's a super limited production like 7.2 RS40. So let's start the car and take it for a drive!
Very true indeed! I did not include inflation corrected numbers in this video, but the majority of cars are close to their pre-pandemic level if you adjust the prices.
911 Production numbers: G 1974-1986: 196,000 964: 63,762 993: 68.029 996: 175,164 997: 212,964 991: 233,540 You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that 964 and 993 (last hand built air cooled cars) will always be desirable.
make a f type video! I got a 2021 F type 380 in top spec, super conflicted between if i should buy it out or return the lease on positive equity and get some pay out
I’ve got a 981 Spyder as well. In my opinion (and the opinion of many hard core Porsche aficionados), it’s one of the finest Porches ever built. I know 3 people who have well over 40 Porsches between them, including the Spyder, all of them with several generations of GT3s, and they sold several of their GT3s-but will NOT be selling their Spyders. For all of them, it’s one of, if not the best of their collection. I know I will never sell mine.
Only very few 981 Spyder were built compared to the 718 Spyder. At the same time the 981 Spyder is a very emotional car with a much better sound than its successor. I would not sell it.
Last month you said the 992s were down to the point where we should look into buying, but now you're saying to wait. It's all speculation at the end. Thanks for taking down my detailed explanation for why I was right and now you are changing your mind as the trends change
Context matters. Comparing a 992 to all other Porsches that made it to the top 20%, the downward risk is elevated because the 992 is new (I did not say you should wait). This statement is in line with what i said in the previous Carrera market update; 'It seems that the 991 and 992 market will follow a normal depreciation pattern'. The data in this video is the same as in the previous video so my analysis is unchanged. Nevertheless, as i point out frequently, all statements about future prices are speculation. Ps. I rarely take comments down but TH-cam automatically filters out comments that might contain offensive language. Feel free to repost your analysis.
@@fourwheeltrader What needs to be taken into consideration is the desirability of the 992 when compared to future and past 911 generations. If the next generation of cars proves to be unpopular then that would make previous generations of cars more desirable and vice versa.
I think the GTS 4.0 models will rise in price when the 718 is EV only in a few years. The GTS 4.0 models are the best daily driver/road going Boxster/Cayman models that’ll ever be built
Analysing past prices is nice, but a bit like comparing past prices of equities. This is a lot of efforts and work for you but, but do you really learn a lot? If you like a 911, are you going to switch for a Taycan that has dropped more? Also, we need to bear in mind that most people buy on credit ( up to 90% of new cars apparently), so for a car of say 100k, you should include at least 10% per annum of cost of owning per year. Some cars that have depreciated may have a yearly free service that you should add to the depreciation of other cars which do not include it…this is an endless list of criteria… Hope this does not sound too negative as this is not my intention given the hard work you must do to produce these videos. Merry Christmas!
Constructive feedback is always welcome :) . Usually i make more detailed videos about one single model but i always receive questions about other models. Hence, i figured i try a video that gives a high level description of most models.
The good news with depreciation, is that owners will stop looking at cars as an asset but more like an experience. When I go on holidays, I have nothing left apart from great memories. When my car depreciates it is because I had a lot of good time. Enjoy in good health.
Surprising to see SUVs excluded from the analysis due to the fact that the Porsche Macan is literally keeping Porsche afloat financially. I would love to see them included, or separate analysis of the Porsche SUVs.
I dont have experience in the car market, but porsche making owners buy multiple cars simply so they can get the one they want, with the combination of increased interest rates will lead to a further fall in prices.
This analysis lacks variance shrinkage, for example using empirical bayes. The central limit theorem points to much higher errors for cars with few data points.
True, the data is merely descriptive. I think it would be great to assess the impact but i also see a lot of risks that need to be managed to ensure the usefulness of the results.
Have I missed a reason why Cayenne and Macan weren't included? These two models along Panamera seems to be the most commonly driven Porsches at least in Europe nowadays.
Here in Canada used prices are decreasing. An example with less than 1000 km was being offered for 339k CAD about a month ago. It's now available for 299k. Will it get to below MSRP? That, no-one knows.
It wouldn't be that bad, but the range of 200miles is a joke for today's market, and that's ideal conditions. For the price, it would need at least 350
I am sorry but... I dont care how special model is only 2 porsches can appreciate, 918 and Carrera GT, Thats it. gt3 911 panamera all of these cars realisticly should and will lose value every year.
What car would you like to see analyzed next?
Evora + Exige
2020 Ford Mustang Shelby GT350R and 2022 Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio
993 models
Please do the Bentley Bentayga please
range rover SVR
Glad to ear this as a 981 GT4 owner!
Never selling my 2023 718 Spyder. It’s the very best Porsche for the money.
Great car but you always will want more after a while. Come back and comment when you decide to go to a 911 GT model or GT4. I think you’ll be back in a year or two. 718 spider looks fantastic and I’ve never driven one so I could be talking $hite.
@@chavebomber nope. The Spyder is already more than I want or need.
@@kennethherskind2250 savage. Enjoy it for many years. Where you based???
@@chavebomber perfect place for a spyder. San Diego
@@kennethherskind2250nice. I’m in Dublin Ireland. Lovely 7 degrees here now. Stormy and lashing rain. 😂.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
00:27 📉 *The average depreciation for Porsche models over the past year was 7%, with most experiencing a depreciation between 3 and 10%.*
02:42 🚗 *The Taycan, especially the Turbo and Turbo S models, dominated the top 20% of cars that experienced the most significant losses, with prices plummeting.*
04:52 🔄 *Panameras, while still experiencing losses, fared better than the Taycan, with an average depreciation of 16% compared to Taycan's 28%.*
05:17 💰 *The top 5 cars with the least depreciation were all Boxers or Caymans, with 981 and 718 GT4s showing exceptional performance.*
10:18 📈 *911s performed well, showing resilience in holding value, with the overall Porsche market experiencing an average depreciation of 7%.*
Made with HARPA AI
Incredible amount of work and detailed analysis, yet again. Thank You Harald, for sharing all your hard work in 2023 and I wish you a Very Merry Christmas! Cheers
This channel rocks! How does this channel NOT have more views??!!! I immediately watch every report right away. Even if it hurts to be reminded how much I’ve lost on my McLaren.
I just found him. Great information. Subcribed
What an amazing overview and data, thank u so much. Awesome vid u are getting to perfection. It’s also astonishing to see how strong the Porsches are on value retention even in turbulent times
This rings true in my state. It is very easy to find a new or used Taycan (any trim or the sport turismo) at any Colorado Porsche dealer. Used 992's and 991's are rare and new 911's are simply not available.
Another great video. I always like hearing direct recommendations, such as the downward risk in the 992 market. Get an older model to hedge that risk. Not rocket science, but backed by data. Thank you!
Interesting video! Helps a lot to better understand the current situation and the general market
Thank you. Good job. It would be interesting to add macan and Cayenne.
Interesting to observe differences between us and french Porsche market.
Happy New year !
Great as always, Harald! The high depreciation of Taycans is music to my ears. Hoping to pick up a discount in the next couple years.
Good luck. You will buy one for $40k and it will need new battery for $50k 😢
@@E39M5SPEEDidiot, this channel is data based.
@@Tom55data who cares. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand that certain Porsche models will depreciate very heavily …What matters is real life data when somebody buys that heavily depreciated Porsche product called Taycan at around 80k to 100,000 miles. It will require a new battery pack and your local Porsche dealer will have absolutely no remorse on you and will charge you $50,000 to replace that battery pack.
@@E39M5SPEED 50k is probably low. And it will be tough call for the owner. The battery cost will far exceed the value of the car.
@@morganvon5664 battery from Porsche is $29,000. Labor is $15-$20k.
Thank you for making the list understandable 👍🏼
Thank you for an excellent analysis
Very valid point! I think the depreciation will be heavy.. but also depends on EV charge infrastructure- developed or undeveloped… would drive the prices
When I saw the photo for the video I got excited if you were going to look at price trends based on the color of the cars. That might be something interesting to look at and I think many people ordering cars would be interested in that specifically for Porsches and Porsche models, such as GT cars vs. non-GT cars, Caymans vs 911s, etc. an idea for you that would be fun.
Please do another Panamera model line up depreciation now that the 2024 “new” design is out. A refresh of your previous video from two years ago. Thanks!! 🙏
Glad to see my 981 Cayman S and 718 GT4RS are holding their values. If I were buying an entry-level model I think non-S 981s right now are a great value. You should be able to pick up a good one now for around $35KUSD. Drive it for a few years and sell it for $35K or more.
Always great videos. Thank you. I have some of the most depreciated Porsches. 987 Cayman S(manual) 996 Turbo S(manual) and 970 PDK. I love them all and won’t sell. I got them all at great prices. I think my 996 has gone up a lot. Cheers boys.
Any GT variants or unique variants of the 996 will go up in value. I believe that 2024 will be the lowest point of the 996 generation.
Thanks Harald
Great video and analysis - as always. Thank you. Any insight on where 981 Boxster, Boxster S & 981 Cayman & Cayman S fit in to the mix? I didn't see them included.
I have specific market updates for those models, check out the Porsche playlist on my channel.
When depreciation is quoted on a car model, is it based on what people actually pay for it, or MSRP + destination fee? Similarly, is the current value based on selling it to a dealer, or a private party?
That RS at 12:08, Road Atlanta possibly on a Driving Club at Road Atlanta member day. Love T3!
Thank you for this video
My Cayman GTS 4.0 doing pretty good! Thx for the content
My car is a 2018 Audi TTRS. There aren’t many of them. They are a great car and Audi has discontinued the model. I would think that would increase the demand and used price but has it?
What do you think is a reasonable price for a 991.2 Turbo with 10K miles and is Porsche CPO?
The electric cayman is right around the corner, get them 981 as long as you can 😅
Got on 981S 😊
I bet they offer both especially USA has cooled about EVs significantly.
@@HailCaesar-lm4bq +1 .. Ditto that.
@@HailCaesar-lm4bq also agree. They did the same about face with manual transmissions
@@jessejimenez9915 stupidity seems to rule world today though 😆😆
I’m not worried about depreciation in the least. I have a Boxster S and I’m geriatric Boxster Spyder to go with it. I don’t plan on selling them. Also the Germans are environmental extremists. Porsche has said it won’t make gas powered cars in a few more years. When that happens all old Porsches will be collectibles of a sort.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
00:00 🚗 *Introduction to Porsche depreciation analysis*
- Discussing the importance of understanding Porsche depreciation,
- Mentioning the upcoming analysis of the Lamborghini Market,
- Providing an overview of the Porsche Market with year-over-year price changes.
01:23 📊 *Porsche models with higher depreciation rates*
- Identifying Porsche models that experienced significant depreciation (e.g., Tyon and Panamera),
- Explaining the trends and price drops in the Tyon market,
- Analyzing the GTS and Turbo market depreciation.
03:37 📉 *Comparing Tyon and Panamera depreciation*
- Contrasting Tyon and Panamera models by model year and type,
- Highlighting how Panameras generally depreciated less than Tyons,
- Returning to the overall Porsche marketoverview.
05:43 📈 *Porsche models with lower depreciation rates*
- Discussing Porsche models that experienced lower depreciation,
- Focusing on Boxers, Cays, and GT4s with price stability,
- Noting that some older Porsche models also held their value well.
08:55 🧮 *Summary and conclusions*
- Summarizing the analysis of Porsche depreciation rates,
- Emphasizing the impact of the pandemic on car prices,
- Recommending avoiding Tyon and Panamera for better resale value,
- Suggesting older models from the list of lower depreciation for buyers.
Made with HARPA AI
thanks a lot
Porsche Panamera 1st series (970) is not only the most beautiful (with lines close to 993 Panamerican) but also still depreciating (except top conditions Turbo and GTS), it will be in the next a must for collectors.
Thanks, great overview. Why not buy a 2022 Taycan with a discount of 50k (this is what you can get!)? This brings the car in a price range where it starts to be really interesting to compare the 1 year old Taycan with brand new competitors! Still it is a Porsche with world class engineering you won’t get elsewhere…
I believe that the 2025 Porsche 911 model range will be only offered with a hybrid system and will only be offered with an automatic.
Thus my expectation would be that last model year (all ice) 992.1's will appreciate in price substantially. It has not been proven to be a great investment to invest in battery based hybrid sports cars and I don't see the market being particularly excited by a stop gap hybrid Porsche 911 before an all electric Porsche 911.
Likewise based mostly on rarity and secondly on few to no new offerings, I believe that any 992 911 with a manual will also appreciate in value. It is said that across the worldwide production of the 992 that 1 in 10 cars have a manual.
Never ever selling my 718 Spyder. Only 2400 made for N America. It’s a classic!
How do you collect and concatenate all of the data for these graphs?
Buy a Panamera used and daily. Buy a GT3RS new and store it in a hermetically sealed dimond plated safe.
Can you tell us the impact of a manual gear box has on 992 911 prices ?
Where do the 911 Targa 4S versions fall and the limited models like the Heritage Edition and the 50th anniversary models
I would like to see if there is a gap between the US and European (German) trends for the Porsche.
This guy is the best. Maybe include the SUVs next time :) Still, excellent analysis here.
Made 47% on my Carrera s 991.1 due to your help. Although now I cannot buy anything with that as a guideline!
Well done !
Thank you for sharing this wonderful video. Have a nice day my new friend 👍👍👍💯
I approach this from the opposite direction. I see rapid depreciation as an opportunity to get a great car At an incredibly cheap price. I'm particularly interested in a normally aspirated Panamera S V8. I can afford to buy one but I'm not sure I can afford to own one. At current prices for these older car's depreciation is much less of an issue than maintenance and repairs. So if it costs $10,000. For a brake job or $1,200. For an oil change or $5,000. To change the spark plugs I'm not in the market. I would like to see an evaluation of cost of ownership of these cars including normal maintenance plus likely points of failure and cost of repair.
There’s a lot information out there to help with that
Just gotta search for it
@chipparker3950 I agree with you, I approach it the same way. For that reason, I wish his analysis was a bit more nuanced and detailed rather than just this corporate-style, high-level overview which may suffice in the board room or at conference but not for making informed our purchasing decisions. I’d like to see more analysis of where the sweet spot is at the moment on the depreciation curve, with detailed examples of true cost of ownership including depreciation until the car is X years old (eg 7 or even 10) or say for a desired 3 or 4 years of ownership, and for various mileage cases. Depreciation is not linear so a case can be made for each model at any given time what’s the most efficient economically to buy. If a 2 year old stay an has lost two-third of its value, I don’t think “stay away” is the best recommendation but “run and buy”.
Also predictions of future market value/predictions based on rumours/confirmations of upcoming models and/or facelifts, popularity of and buzz around certain models, new car sales, economic forecasts etc is much more useful than just past depreciation.
And what is this compensation for changes in market composition? If the supply side has changed, the impact on prices are real for values and ownership, so why compensate?
@@NiToNi2002 Thanks for your feedback. It is extremely valuable for me to hear what type of analyses you are interested in.
In the last year i have focused more on high level videos that include all model types of a certain model (e.g. all taycan models at once). The idea behind this is that it attracks a wider audience. Naturally, this means that some details are lost as I cannot prioritize producing a 60 min video every week.
Nevertheless, I think it is interesting to work on the total cost of ownership and it is something that i am developing. It, however, requires the ability to predict the depreciation curve (including inherent uncertainty in this curve) given the car's characteristics and the current macro-economic forecasts. Naturally, this would over a long time period be more acurate than using the current depreciation rate only. Current rates, however, are suitable for cars that are still in production and for short term forecasts.
When it comes to the current depreciation curves, i am already pointing out where relevant if depreciation rates are decreasing or not (see for example the last taycan video or the SF90 curve in the Ferrari video). That is, if we are getting close to a possible inflection point. Specifically for the mileage, I did a full video that showed which cars are at an inflection point regarding their mileage sensitivty.
The compensation for changes in market composition refers to adjusting the aggregate numbers to account for differences in the sample over time. For instance, if a lot of extremely high(low) mileage cars are pushed to the market, it will push the prices down(up). It would be wrong to state that this price change reflects an actual change, it merely reflects a change in the underlying sample.
I hope this clarifies some things.
@@fourwheeltrader Yes it does, thank you. I appreciate the work that must go in to producing these videos and I for one am very grateful for them. They fill a unique void in the content available, especially for the UK market, so kudos to you and keep up the good work! Looking forward to see the changes and additions you outlined implemented over time 👍😃
$5000 for an oil change? 😂
Do the long term depreciation curves for Porsche look different than the rest of the market? In other words, does it take longer or shorter amount of time to hit price stability than for other brands? I’m not sure if you have data for this or not.
That would be an interesting video topic. Unfortunately i do not think that the data i have is suitable for this kind of analysis right now.
Great content, sir! I’m torn between a Lotus Evora GT and a 718 GT4. Evora GT is significantly cheaper, but I’m concerned that depreciation will come roaring in once the Emira becomes more common. Also, since the 718 GT4 is still fairly new, I wonder what depreciation will look like in the next few years if I get one. I suppose it will always be buffered by the older 981 GT4… Other than the tax savings on the cheaper Lotus, I wonder if it’ll be more expensive in the long run (next 5 yrs) due to depreciation.. What do you think Harald?
This video shows the GT4 and evora price trends at 08:40 th-cam.com/video/1UXeZUsD9j8/w-d-xo.html
Evoras are doing quite well but it is difficult to predict how the market will react once the Emira arrives in large numbers in the US. I am planning to look into this during Q1 next year but for the UK market.
With the new Caymans becoming electric, it’s hard to see a scenario where an ICE GT4 won’t hold value much better than a Lotus. I bought a new 981 GT4 in 2015 and sold it in September of ‘22 for $10K more than I paid when I bought my GT3. It was a rock solid car with no issues. A Lotus would have me worried about possible quality issues.
@@993mike thanks for the input Mike. I think I'm going to have to go with the 718 gt4. not sure if it'll be worth an extra 10 grand in seven years, but most likely won't lose as much as the lotus. So I guess it's the prudent thing to do as far as pissing away money on cars goes anyway.
The 718 GT4 (and Spyder) are no longer available new - Porsche stopped taking orders earlier this year as they are being discontinued. The only new ones being built right now are for existing orders. If you want a GT4 you'll have to buy used.
now let's add 3.1% inflation rate of 2023 and 6.5% inflation for 2022. so and so if you owned the car longer. So the take away is no one is winning, unless it's a super limited production like 7.2 RS40. So let's start the car and take it for a drive!
Very true indeed! I did not include inflation corrected numbers in this video, but the majority of cars are close to their pre-pandemic level if you adjust the prices.
911 Production numbers:
G 1974-1986:
196,000
964:
63,762
993:
68.029
996:
175,164
997:
212,964
991:
233,540
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that 964 and 993 (last hand built air cooled cars) will always be desirable.
Could you please make an lx570 depreciation video
Great time to BUY!!!
This doesn’t make me love my Panamera GTS any less. Love the NA V8. Great video, brother.
Can you do the EU market for porsche please
For some videos I will include the German market from the beginning of next year.
@@fourwheeltraderas a dutchman looking forward to that!
German market drops a lot more then the US because the economy is dead in Germany because of green politics.
make a f type video! I got a 2021 F type 380 in top spec, super conflicted between if i should buy it out or return the lease on positive equity and get some pay out
Have a look at this video: th-cam.com/video/kP4NDFUm0DE/w-d-xo.htmlsi=T3TcH61ZrHh9VSDW
PLEASE COULD YOU DO FERRARI 296 BOTH GTB AND GTS? Sorry for caps lock but it's very important for me
What about carrera 4s?
What do you see for the 981 Boxster spyder should I sell now or hold it ? I drive about 2500 miles per year and have 19000 on the car.
I’ve got a 981 Spyder as well. In my opinion (and the opinion of many hard core Porsche aficionados), it’s one of the finest Porches ever built. I know 3 people who have well over 40 Porsches between them, including the Spyder, all of them with several generations of GT3s, and they sold several of their GT3s-but will NOT be selling their Spyders. For all of them, it’s one of, if not the best of their collection.
I know I will never sell mine.
@@thedudeabides1443 I have a 2023 718 Spyder. NEVER SELLING.
Only very few 981 Spyder were built compared to the 718 Spyder. At the same time the 981 Spyder is a very emotional car with a much better sound than its successor. I would not sell it.
Could you analyze mercedes? Cheaper models i think would be interesting
Very informative video! What about Cayennes ?
in our country dropping the most.
Last month you said the 992s were down to the point where we should look into buying, but now you're saying to wait. It's all speculation at the end. Thanks for taking down my detailed explanation for why I was right and now you are changing your mind as the trends change
Context matters. Comparing a 992 to all other Porsches that made it to the top 20%, the downward risk is elevated because the 992 is new (I did not say you should wait). This statement is in line with what i said in the previous Carrera market update; 'It seems that the 991 and 992 market will follow a normal depreciation pattern'. The data in this video is the same as in the previous video so my analysis is unchanged. Nevertheless, as i point out frequently, all statements about future prices are speculation.
Ps. I rarely take comments down but TH-cam automatically filters out comments that might contain offensive language. Feel free to repost your analysis.
@@fourwheeltrader What needs to be taken into consideration is the desirability of the 992 when compared to future and past 911 generations. If the next generation of cars proves to be unpopular then that would make previous generations of cars more desirable and vice versa.
What about the Targas?
I think the GTS 4.0 models will rise in price when the 718 is EV only in a few years. The GTS 4.0 models are the best daily driver/road going Boxster/Cayman models that’ll ever be built
Thank you for confirming I am never going to able to buy my GT4…
Its almost time to buy
Do you think a 2023 used with low miles MC20 is a good buy at $45k, below MSRP?
Probably not since they will probably continue to depreciate further. I would wait until around this time next year.
Analysing past prices is nice, but a bit like comparing past prices of equities. This is a lot of efforts and work for you but, but do you really learn a lot? If you like a 911, are you going to switch for a Taycan that has dropped more?
Also, we need to bear in mind that most people buy on credit ( up to 90% of new cars apparently), so for a car of say 100k, you should include at least 10% per annum of cost of owning per year.
Some cars that have depreciated may have a yearly free service that you should add to the depreciation of other cars which do not include it…this is an endless list of criteria…
Hope this does not sound too negative as this is not my intention given the hard work you must do to produce these videos. Merry Christmas!
Constructive feedback is always welcome :) . Usually i make more detailed videos about one single model but i always receive questions about other models. Hence, i figured i try a video that gives a high level description of most models.
The good news with depreciation, is that owners will stop looking at cars as an asset but more like an experience. When I go on holidays, I have nothing left apart from great memories. When my car depreciates it is because I had a lot of good time. Enjoy in good health.
I knew it was the right decision to buy the Cayman))
Surprising to see SUVs excluded from the analysis due to the fact that the Porsche Macan is literally keeping Porsche afloat financially. I would love to see them included, or separate analysis of the Porsche SUVs.
Where are those data from?
Can we have such a comparison for sports cars under 100k including all brands?
What happened to the 992 gt3?
Here you go: th-cam.com/video/AukwZ6XGdSI/w-d-xo.htmlsi=qIiyxwUMxuHZgSMi
I dont have experience in the car market, but porsche making owners buy multiple cars simply so they can get the one they want, with the combination of increased interest rates will lead to a further fall in prices.
I’m wondering if the Taycan depreciation isn’t as big an issue as you’d imagine as the EV tax breaks in the U.K. offsets the massive loss in value. 🤔
You actually nailed it - as tax breaks and 💯 offset against corp tax is still worthwhile… but Taycan is also an amazing car
@@Chaplikebab_ I’m wondering what the depreciation is like in countries where taxpayers aren’t subsidising EV’s🤨
I love my Taycan 4S and would never change it to Panamera. It drives way better in almost all possible ways.
This analysis lacks variance shrinkage, for example using empirical bayes. The central limit theorem points to much higher errors for cars with few data points.
True, the data is merely descriptive. I think it would be great to assess the impact but i also see a lot of risks that need to be managed to ensure the usefulness of the results.
I think one of the main features impacting the EVs is that everyone is acquiring them for tax advantages.
I am waiting for 911 992 Turbo to go under $200K to purchase one. Will I continue to wait?
Please keep us updated. I’m waiting too.
I'd continue to wait, there's so many Turbo's produced and the model is so new that the prices will definitely come down in the next 1-2 years
I see myself getting a steal on a Taycan eventually
Have I missed a reason why Cayenne and Macan weren't included? These two models along Panamera seems to be the most commonly driven Porsches at least in Europe nowadays.
I don't have any data for them, that's why they are excluded.
grobar warmin 😂
How about gt4rs
Here in Canada used prices are decreasing. An example with less than 1000 km was being offered for 339k CAD about a month ago. It's now available for 299k. Will it get to below MSRP? That, no-one knows.
It wouldn't be that bad, but the range of 200miles is a joke for today's market, and that's ideal conditions. For the price, it would need at least 350
No Cayenne mentioned?
It is mentioned that it is not included (together with the macan)
Bro you gotta label charts
Not sure what you mean, labels are included.
I am looking for Ferrari EU
Surprised the Caymen beats the 911 when it comes to depreciation.
Macans? Cayennes?
💪🙂👍
This doesn't relate to Finland at all. Taycan, Panamera and especially Cayennes are all dropping similarly.
Most porche drivers actually keep their car long term.
What happened to the 997???? Should have been in this piece???😢
It is included in the latest carrera market update. Have a look at the channel.
@@fourwheeltrader cool thank you
911 991 GTS 2015
Porsche will control the high end market with tightening the supply.
Internal Combustion Engine forever and ever.
Any of the Macan/Cayenne/Panamera/Taycan will depreciate like a brick, and only the special 911/718 models won't.
If you care a lot about car depreciation, this means you can't afford it. BMW M2 is a good car too.
Correct!!! Too many ppl in way over their heads! Same with handbags, watches etc etc!
My 996 has gone up 15K in last 3 years
In the 1st place buying a sports car and worrying about its depreciation means you're already in over your head.
It's just plain stupid.
Recession hasn't even started, buckle up
No 997 models but you did the 996. How odd
You can the detailed results for the Carrera market over here: th-cam.com/video/hL4gMtQvAi4/w-d-xo.htmlsi=E3ojeSoU4s4xmmdR
I am sorry but... I dont care how special model is only 2 porsches can appreciate, 918 and Carrera GT, Thats it. gt3 911 panamera all of these cars realisticly should and will lose value every year.