The Kentucky Derby by The Thorograph Numbers and Patterns
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 เม.ย. 2024
- No more waiting. We said we'd get it done early for YOU and we did. The Kentucky Derby by The Thorograph Numbers and Patterns. Last year we pointed out Mage on our Derby show and Pretty Mischievous on our Oaks show which is also up.
This is it, your edge, your leg up, your head start! The numbers and patterns don't lie and we have never seen anyone read them better than Jonathan Stettin. he just has that knack.
Enjoy the show! We do it all for you and everything is on us!
Don't miss the very best second to none Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby seminar in the game including key undercard races...all the info is here:
pastthewire.com/the-2024-past...
Thank you for watching @PastTheWireTV
Photo: Mage and Javier Castellano celebrate a win in the Kentucky Derby, Daniella Ricci, Past the Wire
Videography: Jim Gazzale, Past the Wire - กีฬา
Wayne here - had Mystik Dan based on this podcast. Interpreted the Thorograph #'s + came up with him. After running 1/4 he regressed to 3 1/2. I felt that wasn't a big regression. It was his 2nd fastest race ever. Felt he could go forward off of it to a possible new high. Got lucky and won. Had Mage last year cause of same podcast. Thank you Jon. You make racing exciting, interesting + fun!!!
Underestimated Mystik Dan a bit. His style fit, had upward trend, favorable post and trip. That's horse racing. There's a lot of knowledge and insight here.
Always good to hear Thorograph analysis. Can't wait until post positions drawn. Thanks for taking the time to give out free info that others might charge for.
Thank you
Godolphin been trying for years to bring home the roses. Japan been trying for a few fewer years. But somehow Goldolphin seems Due and Japan is not due. Instead Japan must prove it first. I don't get it. It should be Godolphin must prove it first.
Your wish has been granted. Draw on SAT CD Opening Night instead of on WED. GF
I love looking at horses that like to battle "Eye to Eye" i feel it shows alot about a horses heart.. love your Shows!!!!
Agree and thank you
My wife also loves that. She refers to it as the horses spirit.
@@ronaldlatosinski4066 Nice, I Really like that Ronald! 😁
Totally makes sense!
I always get something from Jon's thoughts in his videos...
Jon alone has helped my Horse play, just from stuff i get ftom listening to him talk!! 👍
Thanks again Jon great to have this definitely brought a couple of horses to my attention that I had not thought of
20/20 hindsight and 🌹’s said sweet hoof beats and the future memories. Thanks y’all
Another fantastic interpretation of the numbers. Thank you Jon for all you do.
Thanks for listening
Thank you, Mr Settin. I greatly appreciate the numbers and pattern analysis as well as your and the Pass the Wire teams' time going into this production along with all the previous Kentucky derby coverage.
Grazie, much appreciated
Thank you. Enjoyed the insight
Hats off to you had the horses from your info had to pay rent did not bet.Got a follower for life. I've been in this game it seems all my adult life .for once I feel I've connected to someone who knows this crazy game
Grazie Sergio, appreciate it
JON your show is the best nobody does it better than the pick six king grazie JON !
Thanks for giving out some of the best information out there.
Thank you!!!
Really appreciate your show
Much appreciated
Thank you sir really appreciate the show god bless.Hopefully Frankie Detorri gets the mount on Encino.
that would be awesome, Encino is improving , he's a threat
I do too
I was amazed how you and I viewed this huge field alike with one exception. Just Steel not only received a much improved number but his stride had the look of a champion. Not a Lucas fan, yet it can be overlooked here. The "bounce" theory is null and void when there is a month or more between races, therefore he must be in my exotics. Mystic Dan can stay close enough to allow his grinding style a chance to put him in the mix. NEW SUB here due to a great show. Good luck with you selections.
Thank you Jon! As usual a great analysis of the patterns
Always enjoy your analysis Jon…..thanks!
Thank you!
KY Derby Winner’s Last Prep Since 1996 -
1996: Arkansas Derby (1st)
1997: Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
1998: Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
1999: Lexington Stakes (1st)
2000: Wood Memorial (1st)
2001: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2002: Illinois Derby (1st)
2003: Wood Memorial (2nd)
2004: Arkansas Derby (1st)
2005: Santa Anita Derby (4th)
2006: Florida Derby (1st)
2007: Blue Grass Stakes (2nd)
2008: Florida Derby (1st)
2009: Sunland Derby (4th)
2010: Arkansas Derby (2nd)
2011: Spiral Stakes (1st)
2012: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2013: Florida Derby (1st)
2014: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2015: Arkansas Derby (1st)
2016: Florida Derby (1st)
2017: Florida Derby (1st)
2018: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2019: Florida Derby (1st)
2021: Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
2022: Jeff Ruby Steaks (4th)
2023: Florida Derby (2nd)
Santa Anita Derby: 8
Florida Derby: 7
Arkansas Derby: 4
Wood Memorial: 2
Lexington: 1
Illinois Derby: 1
Blue Grass: 1
Sunland Derby: 1
Spiral: 1
Jeff Ruby: 1
Winners of their last prep: 17/27 = 63%
Losers of their last prep: 10/27 = 37%
1st: 17
2nd: 7
3rd: 0
ITM in their last prep: 24/27 = 88.9%
I’m aware Justify is no longer considered the winner of the 2018 SA Derby but I’m putting him here because he did finish 1st similar to why I’m using Maximum Security and Medina Spirit for 2019 and 2021. I’m using their final preps for this. I’m not going to use Bolt d’Oro, Country House, and Mandaloun’s final prep. I’m going to exclude 2020. That was a weird year seeing the Belmont first at 9F. I’m only going back to 1996 because that was the first year I got into horse racing.
According to this history, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie would be tosses. Their last prep was the Louisiana Derby which hasn’t produced a winner if that happened to be their final prep. And this also doesn’t bode well for Sierra Leone either. Strike the Gold in 1991 was the last BG winner who won the roses. Street Sense nearly won it in 2007 but Dominican nosed him out. Keeneland had installed synthetic that season.
The Santa Anita Derby has been the best final prep since 1996 but I’m not sure how to feel about Stronghold. I’m not feeling the horses who ran in SA. If Imagination was in the KY Derby, I wouldn’t be high on him either. Stronghold finished slow and his Beyer of 89 for his recent win is the lowest fig I’ve seen for a winner in a G1 final prep. I may have him in a few bets being a Ghostzapper fan.
Florida Derby has been the most productive final prep with KY Derby winners having 4 of the last 7 since 2016. Three of those won both races. But here we go again like Forte last year. Forte won the BC Juvenile and Florida Derby and being trained by Pletcher. The BCJ winner is only 2 for 39 in the Derby. The 2YO champ is only 3 for 43 since 1980. And we know how Pletcher horses are on big days.
Fierceness has all the talent but he’s not a reliable horse to bet on. Sink or swim, feast or famine like War Emblem and Bayern. Bet Fierceness with plenty of caution. He’s burned a lot of money as the heavy chalk. I look at Sierra Leone similar to Epicenter/Zandon. He’s big and strong like Epicenter. If he doesn’t win it, I still see him hitting the board. Not the same case with Fierceness. He either wins it or he fades badly and won’t hit the board.
1st or 2nd in their final prep
SA Derby: Stronghold
FL Derby: Fierceness
Wood: Resilience
AR Derby: Just Steel
Blue Grass: Sierra Leone, Just A Touch
Lexington: Encino
Jeff Ruby: Endlessly
LA Derby: Catching Freedom, Honor Marie
UAE Derby: Forever Young
Updated Rankings
1. Sierra Leone (1st)
2. Fierceness (1st)
3. Resilience (1st)
4. Just Steel (2nd)
5. Stronghold (1st)
6. Endlessly (1st)
Toss
Forever Young
Catching Freedom
Honor Marie
Just A Touch
Epic Ride
Dornoch
Encino
Domestic Product
Track Phantom
Mystik Dan
Deterministic
If it’s wet, more money on Fierceness. The two times Pletcher won was on a sloppy track. If it’s dry, more money on Sierra Leone. He’s bigger. He looks stronger. He’s the best closer since Street Sense.
I think the 6 horses I listed have names of a Derby winner. Resilience, similar to Justify or Authentic, sounds right to me. But I don’t believe Resilience is particularly fast similar to Stronghold whom he lost to at Churchill in a maiden race.
Endlessly is giving me Animal Kingdom vibes. AK looked like a turf/synthetic horse but was training beautifully leading up to the race and won at 25-1. I forgot he’s the son of Leroidesanimaux. I was a big fan of that horse back in ‘05. The Jeff Ruby has produced Rich Strike and Two Phil’s. Tapalo in the SA Derby did not flatter Endlessly’s El Camino win over him.
I’m looking at Stronghold’s final times in Horse Racing Nation and I don’t understand why his speed figs are so low? He broke his maiden beating Resilience at 1:35 and change at Churchill. That’s pretty fast at CD and for a 2YO. Didn’t he break the track record in Sunland? He ran 1:42 and change for that Derby. That’s fast.
Maybe that’s a good thing? Beyer boys used to love Stronghold’s sire. Gave Ghostzapper a 128 for the Iselin. I saw the hoopla with Flightline but GZ defeated much better competition. I don’t get the low figs for Stronghold. These other preps go 1:50+ and they’re receiving higher figs. Stronghold goes 1:49+ and he gets an 89.
D. Wayne Lukas is known to run his horses to the ground. Charismatic ran 7x as a 3YO before he won the Derby. Just Steel has run 4x as a 3YO and 11x overall. Almost twice as long as Justify and Flightline’s career. I don’t necessarily see JS winning it but he’s a good exotics play. He has finished behind the likes of Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.
Resilience finished behind Stronghold once but ahead of Track Phantom in a maiden race. Then finished behind Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Freedom in the Risen Star. I feel like Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Stronghold, and Resilience are close to the same level with mid 90s BSFs. Marty Wygod died recently. Maybe Resilience wins the roses in honor of him?
I’m favoring Stronghold and Resilience due to their last preps. When was the last time the Louisiana Derby produced the Kentucky Derby winner? Remember Lawyer Ron or Friesan Fire? The Turfway preps have greater success than Fair Grounds. Epicenter used the LA Derby race as his final prep and lost the Derby and Preakness as the chalk. And Epicenter looked more formidable to me than Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.
It seems to me Sierra Leone is the best closer of the bunch but he isn’t far and away faster than any of them with a 98 BSF. But he is the most consistent and reliable. Think Zenyatta. A horse with a 19-1 record is pretty darn good and I don’t care if it’s mostly on synthetic. A closer is always at the mercy of the pace. Sierra Leone could be Zandon Part 2 but it would still be foolish to toss him in your tickets.
Derby/NBA Parlays
Any of my top 6 horses
Celtics or Sixers wins East
Nuggets or Lakers wins West
Now this is the analysis I was looking for!!!
Thank you
Toss Forever Young at your own peril....very likely winner, itm for sure.
Damn impressive work!
Three of your tosses finished in the top four.
Thanks for the info...was late to register for the seminar, but will catch your Breeder's cup...
Any time!
Thanks for all you do !
Great job! 4:15 Monday. Fellow 1970's Big A player.
Wayne here - Ur the best in the business! Thank you!!! (What a GREAT hat! Where can we buy some Past The Wire merch?)
Thanks Jon. Great job as usual
Thank you for the invaluable information!! I was looking at a few that, thanks to this video, I now know could be looking at a regression. 😘🐴🌹🏆
Thanks for doing the numbers. Super helpful, particularly with those borderline horses I wasn’t sure about. I also liked what was said about Just a Touch who I’m keying more into. As a May foal, it is likely he’ll make that step forward from the triple 2.5s. Steve Haskin (from the Secretariat blog) had a nice writeup about him back in March. He said he spoke to the person who broke & trained Sierra Leone (David Scanlon) & “the first thing out of his mouth was not about SL; it was how he knew Just a Touch was special the first time he laid eyes on him and I hadn’t even mentioned Just a Touch. I didn’t even know he had him. He raved how he had the most beautiful walk and was so quick with having the biggest gaskins [hind leg muscles that helps provide power and propel a horse forward] and forearms [the front leg muscle that helps increase a horses stride] he ever saw. If this horse ever runs to his physicality, watch out.”
Great vid! I think Stronghold will be continue to be underrated by many. Not too long ago the SA Derby winner was always the considered the 1st or 2nd favorite. I like him bc he gets out and makes his own trips.
Fast early. I like him.
Hey Jon - Thanks for your insight. Interesting stuff as per usual. Can’t wait for the Derby show.
Great info and experience and, of course, a one-of-a-kind delivery :)
Much appreciated
Thankyou great show as alway
Awesome information about the derby. Thank you again , good luck to you and all the guys listen to this podcast.....
Grazie, likewise
thank you for all your hard work
Excellent show Jon, Thanks and good luck
Thank you man!! Tyler galfalone is the awesome jockey Leone,he can put him 15 lengths back or 10,he will be coming down the long stretch with honor Marie,catching freedom, just steel, n the mo horse,, goin be best derby race in years
Great show Jon!.. as always!
Thanks for listening
Thanks for info! Encino my long shot for derby $$$.
first time saw thorograph video. Nice Anlysis" my math agrees with yours .nice see somebody else see within the numbers too. Nice INTUTION!
Cool, thanks
Thanks for the info and explanations to support your opinions.
My pleasure!
another great show! thanks
Ty. Great. Love the breakdown of the thorograph
Glad you enjoyed it!
I've never used a thorograph sheet because I can't really afford them as a younger person trying to get a start as an independent handicapper, but I really loved your analysis. Honest, straightforward, unbiased look at every horse in the field. "Anybody who tells you they know who's gonna win the Derby today, you should not be listening to at all," earned yourself another subscriber on that alone.
Thank you, appreciate it
Thanks Jon. You’re very informative. Do a show from Chi-town sometime. ✌️
Great video. I was looking at past thorographs for the derby and forever young will be the fastest horse sent over so far
thank you guys
Thank you
Thanks !!! NYC/Ft Lauderdale
Thanks Jon!
Thanks Jon
Have been watching your podcasts for about a year now Jon. Your analysis and personal insights with respect to the thorograph numbers, combined with your keen observations regarding a horse's running style are priceless. Thank you.
Also kudos to the programming content you have provided, including fantastic guests, and informative conversations with Jim Gazzale. The best on the internet.
Much appreciated!
Hi John,
Doesn't everyone realize that Sierra Leone can go 4 or 5 wide and still mow them all down in the stretch!!!
Chad and Tyler still haven't cut him loose!!! Derby Day we will all see a Monster coming down the long stretch at Churchill Downs!!! I have Sierra Leone locked in really good in all the Futures... I was sold on Sierra Leone right after I bet him on Breeder's Cup weekend and watched his maiden race.... He did everything he could do to loose the race and won on Pure Ability and Talent...
Chad and the owners wanted the Derby from that day... Root him home Big John, We Got This !!!
I'm with you. Been a huge fan of this horse since then. Going to stay heavy on him
SL going 4 or 5 wide is Inevitable, Gaff will not have him situated inside, need to hope he won't be 7+ wide , the quality of ride will be imperative, numerous contributing factors, early positioning, traffic, pace, jockey split second decisiveness & so on . He's the fastest horse in the race, however he is loaded with pure talent and he's built for the distance, I have seen countless examples over the years with the Kentucky Derby ( I go back to 1978) the post position and break are imperative too, PS: Clearly Fierceness can regress to a negative 1 or a 0 , and still win, the handicap of this race is fascinating, his numbers stand out, nobody in the race comes close, however as I mentioned, so many contributing factors, Steven Assmusen is arguably one of the best trainers to saddle a horse, has the most wins and stakes wins, however he's never won the Derby and this year he's not even in it, same goes for Jockey's so many great ones have never won it , last year Castellano benefitted from Prat being too late to a spot, and Assmussen's Disarm was full of run and blocked in the stretch by a stopping Kingsbarns, remember, the trip no greater importance in the KD
Amussen does have a horse in it this yr
@@geosette3532
Love learning about the "paddens". You're a stud, one of the best bettors I've found
Grazie
Good info, thanks.
Glad it was helpful!
TYVM
What is the next thing you look at after Thorograph? And the next thing? I am basically brand new, but subscribe to your website. Feels like taking a college course in horse race betting…thank you!
Replays, past performances
Thank you very much for sharing your insights, it's invaluable to be honest.
My pleasure!
This was great - thank you for your analysis. Will be combining the sheets with some study of those horses that threw sub 13 final furlongs and sub 38's for their final 3/8ths splits in their final preps, especially for those that come from off the pace. Wish everyone here the best of luck on May 3rd and 4th!!
Glad it was helpful! And Grazie
Jonathan , I enjoy listening to your interpretations of KD 150th Colts ' Thorograph Numbers and Patterns and their implications for how they might run in this year's KD. Very informative. Helps us form our opinions about each colt. I also enjoy hearing your personal observations and options about each horse's "action" when they are running in a race. As for me, I really loved HONOR MARIA's "action in November 2024 when he ran and won the Kentucky Jockey Club stake race. I also love HONOR MARIA's sires in her pedigree. They are the "Who's Who" in horse racing history. I opine HONOR MARIA might win this year's KD or, at least, finish ITM. Best of Luck, Jonathan! - "Dr. Max."
Spot on with fierceness. Won’t get the candy trips he got in BC or Fla derby. Not in a 20 horse field. That last effort is prime for a bounce also. IMO. Great show man
Love it! See you in the seminar. Really appreciate all the work you put in!!
Can't wait!
Jon thanks for as always great show , I am sticking with Honor Marie who is the jockey Ben Curtis?
There is a video featuring Ben Curtis on you tube and another on the trainer as well. Curtis is a winning jockey from England. Has raced worldwide as a top winning jockey who chose to ride at the Fairgrounds this season.
@@charylene211 thank you I have seen it what a good guy as a practicing Catholic there isn’t many these days I am sticking with Honor Marie in French meaning Honor Our Lady.
Hi jon. Couldn't wait 4 yr thoughts
Think yr right about not needing 2many this yr compared 2 others. I only see 3. Track phantom sierra leone n fierceness.sorry 2 of them r favorites but figure. My 4th pick common defense i guess is in now im not sure cause u said deterministic is out. Dont know if in. Also deterministic is a horse 2 watch down the road big time. Thks . Make money like u helped me last yr k.d.
6 horses are capable of winning the derby, but I'm only betting three of them on my oaks derby double bet. With my pick 5 and 6 I'll use all of them.
Jon, horses with "bad action" do struggle in the Derby as they try to stretch out to 1 1/4 miles for first time this early in their lives.
Great info!! Bona futuna
Thank you cugine xoxox love the show just waiting for the draw could be huge payoff
Good commentary paired up with good analysis makes for a forward move.
BTW, unless I somehow missed it, think you only mentioned the Thorographs for only three of Encino’s four career races.
I might have messed up 😬
SL is not the only big closer in the field very dangerous and could win he will be co chalk with the FLA Derby winner I will be looking to beat both of them for the win but I do have SL rated higher then the FLA Derby winner your absolutely right betting horses is a very humbling game ànd at times very frustrating and everyone no exceptions who bets horses are going to be wrong more then right the key is to capitalize on the scores you get right Best of Luck
Jon thanks for all the insight and your valuable guidance, with the thoroughgraph charts. Who is on your short list list for the Derby at this time?
Awesome insight delivered in an entertaining and approachable manner. Thank you, sir!
Celino sired by Nyquist and Sierra Leone sired by Gun Runner. 2016 Nyquist won the KY Derby and Gun Runner came in 3rd. Celino win - Sierra Leone place or exacta maybe box. History does repeat itself!
You talked about bad action on Dornach/Forever Young but failed to mention about Sierra Leone's ugly paddle action. 😵💫 You dont think that might affect him for the 1 1/4?
Yes remember whoever is in the right place and get s the trip wins
Do you know how many horses have won the Derby and never won again
The last two for sure.
Thank you Jon. You always share a lot of insight. Looking forward to the seminar.
thank you see you there
Quick thought regarding horses that didn't run as a Juvenile, yes the Apollo curse that lasted over 100 years was finally executed by Justify all the way to the triple crown, and Mage last year, however in my opinion he was lucky, perfect trip and other contenders were blocked or never fired (Tapit Trice) ( Disarm) and Pratt's riding error on his horse gave him the lane, still the lightly race horse won, but then the rest of the year he was downright horrible, failed each time. My point here is I like Just Cause too, very talented horse and his numbers are what they are, lots to like and consider about him, but keep in mind that horses like Rock Your World ( won the SA Derby) lightly raced, ran a big number, was 3-1 in the Kentucky Derby , was in the #15 hole, broke got bumped and he disappeared in the race, lack of experience showed, I can also remember Verrazano, was razor sharp in his preps, broke from the 14 hole, bad trip, never fired, out of the money at a short price, then later in the year, he set the record at the Haskell down the shore, he won by like 10 lengths, my point here is the KD will always be extra tough for a horse with limited experience. Justify was an exception to the rule, and his trainer was Bob Baffert, I like Just Cause alot , and trust me, if he fails in the KD , you will see lots more from him later on this year, Mage was like Rich Strike, clearly a one hit wonder
Love you guys. In awe of your knowledge and your delivery, both Jon and Geo. (Born in Roosevelt hospital Manhattan myself.). Reminds me of home. Geo. I'm thinking you mean Just a touch here? No disrespect but Just Cause a different horse I think. Don't mean to step on your toes. Thanks for all of your insight over the years. Leonia NJ Class of 86😂
@@Brigshidouse All good, thanks for the kind words, Of course I meant Just a Touch, too many horses in my mind, lol just came out that way when i was writing
@@Brigshidouse All good, thanks for the kind words, Of course I meant Just a Touch, too many horses in my mind, lol just came out that way when I was writing
Sounded like it. Just Steel has more races. Thanks GEO. Spent many summers at Pt. Pleasant and LBI. Fingers crossed for lucrative totes for you in the Derby.
Freight Trains a comin!
Do you think when a horse has a bounce coming up adversity tends to rear it's head. Like the reason Dreaming of Julia got out of the gate bad,was because she was still hurting from the big number? So it wouldn't surprise you if Fierceness had a bad start,stumbles etc.? Thank you so much for doing this. Really appreciate it!
interesting, i wouldn't be so fast to dismiss that theory
Jon, thanks for the thoroughgraph info. Who are those on your short list for the Derby?
Thanks so much for these shows!!
Thank you!
Thanks for sharing the numbers! 😊
Great work you are the best in the business. I hope you are wrong with Sierra Leone though. Even if fierceness does bounce I just cant bet a closer in the derby. The last two years were an enigma to me. I cant predict the pace but with track phantom, just a touch, fierceness and dornoch up there I would be surprised if they went out in anything faster than a 23.50 first quarter. So if not fierceness which forwardly placed horse do I land on? Tough to say but the two cox horses, just a touch and Encino, will be on my short list.
Sierra Leone my third pic.my math says. can run second. don't worry gone have traffic problems think. Fierceness has a number of basketball.good luck bet the right lonshot to make money. everybody saying 2 horse race mostly. media produces sheep for monterrey gains. want them buy bad karma they produce..Best do box longshots with Sierra Leon. think hevm loses. no horse keep winning coming from clouds every race. he's not freighttrain That Nysos baffert horse has. he's freighttrain and faster on the pace to. good luck!
Grazie
First time I've seen a Past the Wire TV clip and it was certainly informative, but i cant quite understand what the numbers Jon is quoting mean. Thorograph i believe as stated but when he says anything below a 4 is top notch etc, what is that specific metric called and referring to. Thanks in Advance
Sierra Leone is consistently good ,i like him to win the derby 🐎 fierceness is the best horse in the race , hes inconsistent tho 🐴 endlessly i love a gallant runner ,and strides beautifully ,west Saratoga will pick off tiring horses late , may hit the boards .
Thoughts on Seirra Leone slower late pace numbers? Worried at all that he shoots his shot a little to early on the turn and relies to heavily on momentum in the stretch?
Also, with Encino scratching, i assume this will affect pace, maybe slow the race down a little up front?
This also brings Epic Ride into the mix, it appears his progression is headed in the right direction, you didn't have his thorograph numbers here- what're your thoughts on him?
Hey Jon i keep coming back to resilience watch the wood several times is that race as good as it looks or am I missing something thanks I know you very busy so no worries if you can’t respond
Sierra Leone is special.
Love Your Information: "The Most Knowledge Has The Edge"
grazie!
The most difficult jewel of the triple crown to handicap Junior has as good a chance as anybody I'll have a dollar on every one.
Thanks!
Honor Marie improving pattern is more impressive when you consider how young he is. Won’t be 3 until derby day
He was considerable smaller than his competitors early in the year
That's my super long shot for high 5 bet in Derby the mo horse
I think geoux rocket ride scratched too with arch Angelo
That was the one thank you. I didn’t like how either was looking on the track.
Catching Freedom Wim Derby!😂
Seen comments on paddling by Sierra Leone... any thougts ? Watch down the lane in bluegrass left front
No concern for me
I think War Embl-- -I mean Fierceness has a great shot in the K Derby.
lol
Haven't seen this big of a Beyer disparity since War Emblem..and he ran his big number in the Illinois Derby
Thanks so much
read Endlessly not running in derby.running in turf race on detby day .
My list is shorter this year too.
Jose was on fire during blue grass week though so idk
Like to know Epic Ride's numbers for possible exotic's
Dornoch for me isn't really a Win contender but if I'm being honest....I know Sierra Leone was green in the Remsen however I still have to give Dornoch credit the more I watch the replay. I know he was inside but he hits the rail loses ground on a closing Sierra Leone and still has the competitiveness and heart to want to win. Also.... If u take Gargan for his word ( which I obviously don't know) then he wasn't 100% in the heavily scratched FOY. Still won, although not a wow win. But like they say in sports, if you can win with your B or C game then there's quality there. Then in the Bluegrass Gargan wants to try new tactics and rate..... I think the horse needs to be up close and let him do his thing. I'll likely use in gimmicks but workouts will be key to see how he's doing.
Probably not the "top" horse although Mystik Dan was moving in the right direction. He got a beautiful ride and the jockey rode an awesome race. I underestimated him a bit. A lot of things went his way but that's horse racing. Makes perfect sense. Improving horse, style fit well and he got a good trip. I had him potentially third and should've/could have bumped him up factoring in those and other considerations. He seemingly likes the surface too and being a bit wet yet probably didn't hurt either. Both Sierra Leone and Forever Young quality horses. Fierceness's vulnerabilities were exposed. Just about anything can happen in the Derby!
Top Conner ran forward without the instruction according to Chad was the blue grass leader
Forgot the name not the horse. I think he is a serious racehorse
If it rains fierceness is gonna crush by 15 as the cleanest horse. If it’s dry Sierra Leone is gonna come cruising up like a kid from dazed and confused in the passenger seat nailing mailboxes with a baseball bat!
Love the decisiveness 👍🏻
So you don't like longshots. Got it. Just kidding. You won't be the only one thinking that way. Me-- I have a chalk aversion.
@@silvercharm9507 love longshots