2024 Kentucky Derby Analysis and Picks | Churchill Downs
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 พ.ค. 2024
- Analysis and picks for the 2024 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
A full field of 20 will compete in the 150th Kentucky Derby.
Run for the Roses
#kentuckyderby #horseracing #churchilldowns
#triplecrown
#kyderby - กีฬา
Mystery Handicapper, thank you for your breakdown of each horse. This is one of the best analytical breakdowns I have ever listened to! Thank you sir and good luck!
Thank you! I appreciate your support. Good luck!
Thank you for this!! It was fun and informative!! As a little kid I used to watch horse races with my father and could read these without a problem! Out of the blues I just recently watched the BlueGrass & Florida Derby , and became interested in the 150th KD! And it seems like such an interesting 20horses race!! So your breakdown, makes it more interesting for me to watch!!!! Different than anything else I've seen on TH-cam so THanks again!!
You're welcome and thank you for the kind words! I used to go to track with my family when I was kid. I loved it as a kid and I still love it as an adult. Analyzing these races can be very challenging, but it's fun. Good luck!
"Nobody in his right mind bets the 4 horse! The 4 horse is a joke, Trotter!" Seriously, it's a great pick and I'm glad to see your channel finally getting the growth it deserves. 🍻⚜🏇
Thank you! I like him at 8/1. Good luck!
Nice Let It Ride reference
I love your videos, sir. Ive been betting the ponies since 1987, when I was a kid, betting two bucks to show and having my dad go place my bets for me lol.
You know your stuff about handicapping, and I think you do a GREAT job dissecting races.
Im not sure ill have the cash to bet the Derby this year, but I did want to wish you well on your bets. I hope you hit a monster triple, and keep up the great work on these vids.
Thanks for supporting my channel! I appreciate the kind words. Same here, when I was kid I would go to the Fairgrounds racetrack with my parents. I would bet $2 to place. I played my favorite jockeys and trainers.
If you do have a chance to play the derby, good luck and I wish you well on your bets too!
I'll route for another 'animal kingdom-like' synthetic to derby win with Endlessly. Love it when racing gods throw a wrench into the power structure's gears. I still remember when he came back from injury, BC Mile, traffic jam all race, and still grinding for second to Wise Dan. AK was a unique racehorse.
AK sire won BC mile...
If he wins you're looking at a nice payout. Should go off at no lower than 50/1. Good luck!
AK also was the victim of a purposeful incident in the Belmont which ruined his chances there. Great 🐎
Another great video
Mystery Handicapper
You are the real deal❤
Thank you! As always I appreciate your support.
$1 tri box 2,4, 11, 12, 19
Forever Young top pick with the Risen Star horses
I like the Risen Star horses. Let's see how Forever Young handles the track. Good luck!
Nicely done. Good luck.
Thanks! Good luck!
Thx for your analysis ✍🏾📈
You're welcome!
Nice review. Thanks, Mystery. I had Mage in 2023 because of his strong stretch run in the Florida Derby prep race. I feel the same about Sierra Leone based on his highly determined Bluegrass stretch drive. His breeding is very strong, and Tyler Gaffalione knows the Churchill track, having won as meet leader there and having ridden over a 1,000 races there.. And last year was his best purse earning year yet, hitting $30 million, so he's at the top of his game. I singled Justify in 2018 with a pal, & we hit the Super for 19K. This time I'm singling Sierra Leone on a Super ticket & trusting he'll work his way through traffic to have a chance to prove he's the best in the stretch.
Thanks! Sierra Leone has yet to run a bad race and since getting blinkers he's undefeated. He's bred to win the Kentucky Derby. He should get a solid pace. It will all come down to trip. Congrats on hitting that super! Good luck!
@@mysteryhandicapper Indeed, the trip will for sure be the key for Sierra Leone. Because if Fierceness gets an ultra-clean trip with Johnny V., he may be awfully hard to catch in the stretch to the finish line. But if he falters in traffic, and if Sierra Leone has too much traffic trouble to get through holes from the 2 post, t's a grab bag in the Tri And Super.
Good luck everybody
Good luck!
Was prepared to join the MH and the rest of the free world aboard the CF bandwagon. Did not expect to see the second-best last-race speed fig belonging to Resilience.
Blinkers moved him way, WAY up and his stalking style ensures first run on all the speed/pressers.
Betting the #19 horse WPS.
#19 was one of the horses that competed in the Risen Star. I believe that race was the most competitive derby prep. Good luck!
Great video. Thanks
Thank you! Good luck!
First time betting , thanks for the great brake down, who do you pick place and show I think? Does that pay out good?
It depends on the odds of the horses. And also depends what you define as a "good " payout. A good payout to one person may not be a good payout to someone else. When I first started playing horses I would pick horses to place. Now, I focus a little more on exotics. Good luck!
Great job
Catching Freedom had a terrible trip...
Mystic Dan had a perfect trip...
Only two lengths different at the line...
Give me catching freedom as the better horses !!!!!!
Mystic Dan did have the perfect trip. Brad Cox is high on Catching Freedom to let him run after the Derby, he never runs his horses in the Preakness after the Derby.
AWESOME VIDEO!!!!! GOOD LUCK TO YOU SIR, I LIKE YOUR PICK. NEED SOME TRI AND SUPER COMBINATIONS. PLAYING 2, 4, 7, 8, 11,15, &17. #'s 4& 15 AS MY KEY.
Thanks and good luck to you too!
Catching Freedom.
I agree. Good luck!
As always, M. H. has presented some very valuable info. I have won quite a bit off of W. L. ~ J. S. has raced wide in his major preps, coming back in 21 days only to come in 7th behind Timberlake, tells me that the 88 year old Trainer is on target for the 150th KY Derby. Keith is named after his Grandfather, who was a quarter horse jockey, and as such, W L started as a Q H trainer. Steve will be training much longer then his son will ride, clearly, name sake means a lot in a family who lives for the game. Let me tell you how clever W L is; he once ran a colt in a $62,000 claimer who went on to win the KY Derby. Some yrs. ago W L puts together a $500.00 Churchill Downs _D/D with Gary Stevens in the last year of his riding career. In order to play well in the game of basketball you must hustle, The Coach can hustle...lol
I remember that claimer very well. Charismatic won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Lukas is a living legend. Thanks, and good luck!
Another awesome job, Mr. Mystery... I concur with you, sir... I like Catching Freedom... The same connections as last year's KY Derby beaten fave Angel of Empire have a real good chance to make amends, I am definitely going to play him in the exacta and trifecta. The horse who I really like is right next door, Catalytic... Upside personified on this guy... Yeah, he was beaten big time by Fierceness but still a respectable runner-up nonetheless considering it was his first two-turner and graded stake, plus the prolific AP Indy is prominent on the top and bottom of his pedigree... above all, his trainer Saffie Joseph was banned last year and he's got a chip on his shoulder and that goes beyond stats, pedigree, speed figures, etc. One more for this year's Derby, Track Phantom: Steve Asmussen is waaaaaaaaaay overdue. Period. Thanks"May the horse be with you"
- Harvey Pack
Thanks! I agree Asmussen is overdue. Huge payout on #5 if he wins. He's got some nice workouts. Good luck!
May the horse be with you too.
Fierceness wins easily, I’m using Endlessly and Resilience underneath. Haven’t figured out the others I’m using with them underneath. 😉 Great breakdown of the Derby, but I would expect nothing less from you sir !!!
Thanks! He just might win it easily. He's the fastest horse in the race. Good luck!
Please bet Fierceness, Sierra Leone has better odds. A bet that anyone should consider is the most posts won which is 5, 8, 10. Trifecta box 2-4-8. As Boral once said get the rail get the win.
Yes! Catching Freedom🙂
I hope he wins.
I picked Catching Freedom to win, I told my sister, BUT, I added: "My heart says Mystik Dan will win. My brain says Catching Freedom will win. My will says Sierra Leone will win.". I learned from this. Your subconscious knows what your intellect leaves out. I learned that I must use the subconscious (feelings + intuition) to pick a horse. This was just before post time. THEN, I heard a pre-race interview with Kenny and i felt like, uh oh, it is Mystik Dan. Kenny kinda snarled when asked if Dan can win, and can he escape a rail trap etc. " He has speed, and he can use ir, WHENEVER HE NEEDS TO!!!!!" (Grrrrrr!) I shoulda switched horses right then!
@@gretafields4706 It was an exciting race. The Japanese shippers did well finishing 3rd and 5th. Excellent ride from Hernandez on Wise Dan. Big weekend for McPeak. The good thing about horse racing you can go with your brain and your heart. The Preakness should be a fun race. Wise Dan takes on Muth, the horse that beat him in the Arkansas Derby by 5.
Wise Dan: My sister and I were trying to figure out if he was kin to Mystik Dan, who Kenny McPeek says is smart (wise). Dan's speed and smarts both may be inherited from his dam, out of Tiznow. Tiznow is renowned for intelligence! As for Dan beating Muth: can he? Can Seize the Grey run with them?🙂
@@gretafields4706 I don't think Wise Dan and Mystik Dan are related. Can he beat Muth? He couldn't beat him in the Arkansas Derby. Let's see if he can turn the tables. Seize the Grey has to step up speed figs a bit to compete, but he's improving and I'll be cheering for him.
Man you should be doing voiceovers and narrating. I listened to this early, early in am in bed and have never been more relaxed! My picks are very similar, good luck.
Thanks! I appreciate the compliment. Good luck!
What do the last 2 derby winners have in common? They had the highest late pace on time form usa
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Good point.
I think Catching Freedom peaked in the LA Derby and is trailing off form. Honor Marie is peaking from out of the 2nd in the LA Derby. Question: Where do you see the Beyer #'s on the past performances??? Where are they located.?
I'm using Honor Marie in my exotics. He ran well last time out and he's improving. Brisnet doesn't list Beyer speed figs. Daily Racing Form has the Beyer figs. Good luck!
Catching freedom is not trailing off form... In fact he is just now coming into full form... This horse's best days are still in front of him
Well, I was born on May 4th. Honor Marie was foaled on May 4th. The Kentucky Derby is on May 4th. Honor Marie is number seven, which is supposed to be a "lucky" number. So, I'm going to go with Honor Marie. In 1991, the Derby was on May 4th, and I was turning thirty-six. There was a horse that year named Thirty-Six Red, one of the favorites, so I bet on Thirty-Six Red. That didn't turn out so good. I figure my chances are fifty/fifty this year. Either I'll win or I won't. Yuk yuk. Love the program.
I wish you an early Happy Birthday! Good luck with Honor Marie! I like the way he's been racing. Thanks!
Why lose on birthday
Fierceness will pay a little bit but winner
@@terrystanton4387only if he gets the lead or a close second
Not so fast my friend. Fierceness very well may win, but there will be twenty horses in the race, and they all are good horses at this point. Sierra Leone and Stronghold look pretty dangerous as well. Have fun!@@terrystanton4387
My daughter was born on May 5th 1997, she turned 5 in 2002 which happened to be Derby day, #5 War Emblem won the race and paid $43. Got a hunch, bet a bunch! Good Luck!
7,17,4,6 for me. Fierceness is the one to beat but Honor Marie is my pick. He's improved every race. his speed figs are getting better. the race is looking like the early fractions could be fast which would benefit him. his recent bullet and post position make me think he might be a little closer up than usual. is bred to get the 10F. my only concern for this horse is if it rains. in the slop watch out for Mystic Dan. good luck y'all. appreciate the analysis
The weather could be a significant factor if they get enough rain. Honor Marie has improved every race. I have no worries about him getting the distance. I agree, Fierceness is the one to beat. If he runs his best, they can't catch him. Good luck!
I agree the fractions will be fast
First to comment! Good luck! And big money coming!
You're first! I'm ready for big money. Good luck!
I have always liked Fierceness. I was disappointed in his performance in Fountain of Youth but quickly put $25 to win in future @ 16/1. Hope he has a clear trip.
If he has a clean trip and runs his best, then he wins easily. He's easily the fastest horse in the race. Good luck!
I bet Mystic Dan only because McPeek won the Kentucky Filly race on Friday! Lucky !
Congrats!
@@mysteryhandicapper TY Just 2 across the board!
Thanks for the your insights. I am surprised at the ML on some of these horses, especially Fierceness. I thing gate bias is everything when it comes to the Kentucky Derby.
You're welcome. The M/L is interesting, I agree. Good luck!
Great work as always champ ❤I'm going the opposite I going track phantom to win i don't think we've see the best of him either,,,I'm going 12,4,7,8,17 ex tri super
Thanks! Asmussen's adding blinkers. Steve is due for a win. Good luck!
@@mysteryhandicapper
Exactly 💯 is about time I think he has a excellent chance of winning plus he win at the track he lost on sloppy track and the race after he didn't had too win...so this time around is a different ball game
Sierra Leone will need a perfect trip to win and it's a lot traffic to get through. No one has won out of 17 but you know he's going to break and cutover near the quarter pole. Can he get there with this mess? If he gets to the front by half mile, Fierceness Forever Young is just to hard to judge against this level of competition. Tough not to look right at the 4 slot and Encino.
All your points are valid. Good look!
Hey MH. I didnt get a chance to comment on the Oaks race. But i had #Thropedo Anna and #11 Ways and Means. So i have the double back to #2 Sierra Leone #4 Catching Freedom, #7 Honor Marie and #8 Just a Touch. I favor Honor Marie not just bc he pays the most on the double but also Marie is my girlfriend's middle name. Goid luck to you on your bets
Thorpedo Anna with another impressive win. Congratulations and good luck!
What is astounding, concerns the fact that Just A Touch, who ran 2nd in the Grade 1 'Blue Grass' was stalking the
leader throughout a good part of the race and finished a very credible 2nd. This was due to the fact that the pace
had to be moderate, for if it wasn't he would have been far up the track at the end. Noting these track conditions
for the race, Sierra Leone was far back throughout the race and was still able to easily power past the 2nd place
finisher which is a remarkable display of overcoming moderate fractions from far behind the field and getting up
to win the 1-1/8 Mile race. Now with an additional 1/8 mile in 'The Derby', tells me that Sierra Madre should win
this race with ease if he isn't interfered with by other horses.
Sierra Leone is bred for this race and hasn't run a bad race yet. Trip means everything (and pace) and as you stated, if he isn't interfered with by other horses. Good luck!
Timing is race horse.... And fierceness has that... My pick
If he runs his best, the others can't compete. He's too fast. Good luck!
Catching Freedom's future is so bright he has to wear shades...
Bet 4 & bet more !!!!!
I agree he has a bright future. Good luck!
I like what you said about we haven't seen his best race yet... I totally agree
This horse has another gear just like fierceness...
Going with favorite in 1st. Then catching freedom, just a touch, and forever young in 2nd, all in 3rd.
Beating 2nd favorite out of money
Good luck! The exotics always pay well in the derby.
forgot to mention the #s for the wood @ aq. seems off look @ top3 finishers #s before the wood anyways it just a speed # much more factors to look @ good luck to all.
Fast figs at Aqueduct the day of the Wood Memorial. The Gazelle came back fast too.
@nolinrogers. You might be on to something. Where's My Ring joined Tarifa in not running a step yesterday.
Let's go Fierceness!
Good luck!
Chalk city, first turn will tell the story and tons of speed lined up.
Fierceness to win my exacta horses are sierra leona catching freedom strong hold and my long shot catalytic
He's the fastest horse in the race. Good luck!
Track phantom. Cuz he not gone be in the back phantom. Just like richie strike ,he gone find himself a little crack phantom,and then lead the pack phantom. Cutting them horses behind his kick up, absolutely no,,(what?) slack phantom. Somebody might say im crazy, only proving they don't no jack phantom,, Track phantom to win,then ima go crazy, making people say" he don't know how to act phantom. Track phantom!!!!!!! The 12 horse!!!😊
Well done. Good luck!
I am looking for a price, hoping the #17 doesn’t break, gets bumped around and finishes out of the money. Then it’s anybody’s race. I am wheeling 2-4-7 both ways in exactas. Three closers. 19 x $6 = $114. Hope to catch a goodie.
I'm using the 2,4, and 7 in my exotics. Good luck!
I like Just Steel.
What a story of Keith Asmussen wins the derby before Steve. Good luck!
There will be a long shot in the super. Now we have to play a lot of tickets to hopefully hit it. Hopefully the favorites finish 3rd, and 4th with the longshot second, and a 8 to 1 to win it. That would pay about $700 on a .10 cents box ticket. Spend $24 for the super box ticket for $1. That would pay about $7000. We don't want favorites 1st, or 2nd. So the super would pay big. If both favorites finish 5th, and 6th this will be a super superfector.
Get a super with the 4 favorites. Good Luck 🤞 Lukas, and the father, son. What a story it would be
I can see a long shot in the superfecta too. The supers pay well in the derby. Good luck!
If forever young get's acclimated to the CD surface I think he will be the victorious. Endlessly is my surprise horse with Sierra Leone, catching freedom and Honor Marie for the exactas and trifecta.
fierceness will not hit the board at all. Prices will be awesome.
If Fierceness doesn't hit the prices will be awesome. Good luck!
i threw out Fierceness right away i hit the exactor with Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone i didnt have Forever young ...the best horses to me are Muth Sierra Leone. ....Forever Young you HANDICAPPED him terrific .....i wish i had seen this....Fierceness is a farce
Sierra Leone is bred 2 win! Gun Runner on 1 side and A p Indy on the other, goes for a romp. 3 or 4 to one is a gift.
I agree he is bred to win. Good luck!
You are on the same horse I will bet on Derby day. Number 4 , Prat is on Catching Freedom. Also I will bet Society Man , Frankie on big long shot?
How often do you get Frankie at 50/1. I don't blame you. I've been watching Catching Freedom since the beginning of the year. He's consistently improved.
My pick
# 20
Society Man
W/ S / P 🎉
Frankie on the longshot. Good luck!
I like dornoch,if saez can send him I think he makes the superfecta
They're sending him this time. They tried to rate him last time and it didn't work.
I'll enjoy watching Forever Young running remembering his grandpa ( on his dad's side) Sunday Silence. Of course, his pedigree on his Dam's side is OK----A.P. INDY, SEATTLE SLEW.
Fiercesnes by a mile! lol seriously exacta box 17-6, 17-7, 17-8 trifectas 17-7-15 17-7-18 17-8-18, 17-8-15 good luck everybody!
If he runs his best, they can't catch him. Good luck!
Johnny V on him , he has won the derby in the past!
#17 post in the derby not only 0-42 but only 3 horses ever finished in the money!!
That's correct.
Bet on the gray one
Good luck!
MAGE won last year with the same mama and papa. Can the proud parents do it again with Doroch? Very rare that the same mama and papa have more than one starter in the Derby let alone winning it.
It would be a nice story and good payout.
$20.00 exacta Fierceness/ Sierra Leone
$1.00 trifecta Fierceness / All / Sierra Leone
Total cost $38.00
My choice at 20-1 is Dornoch, throw away his last race . Post #1 good break and to the lead.
He'll be on the lead in this one. Good luck!
My $10 Steely Dan exacta:
Just Steel
Mystic Dan
Steely Dan exacta, I like that. Good luck!
Dont forget Animal Kingdom was thought to be only a turf horse.
That's true.
@bnegs521. Ditto Barabaro.
@@LABoyko true
They put Kids on the #4 to get their picture taken.........
With rain in the forecast I am using Mystic Dan underneath....Will blow a 200 buck bankroll betting exactas and tri boxes s 4 - 5 wide, with a super 3 across and 4 on bottom...am looking to beat the favorite
I'm looking to beat the favorite too. Good luck!
No encino ?
He's showing increasing speed figs and has yet to run a bad race. I just narrowed it down to 5 horses, but he has as good of a chance as any to hit the board.
He just had a fast workout, pulling ahead of his stablemate Catching Freedom. I think he may set the pace and hold it for Sierra Leone until CF catches Sierra. But I'd hate to see Sierra come up behind CF.
@@gretafields4706 I watched that workout. Encino looked impressive.
Encino scratch
I HAVE TO GET THE DAILY RACING FORM AND GO OVER IT. RIGHT NOW I LIKE THE #3 HORSE BECAUSE HE'S STYLE OF USING THE RAIL LIKE THAT JOCKEY NICKNAMED "BORAIL" MAKES ME THINK JOCKEY HERNANDEZ WILL IMMITATE "BORAIL" AND SNEAK THRU THE RAIL. I WON'T USE ANY JUSTIFY OFF SPRINGS... I'LL ALSO PUT A TICKET ON THE JAPANESE HORSE RIDDEN BY KAMURA WHO I FOLLOW FROM THE WOODBINE DAYS AND HE WON A BUNCH OF RACES THERE.
Maybe a repeat of the Southwest Stakes for #3. I remember Calvin Borel very well. He rode the rail to perfection. Good luck!
0/19, from what I heard only one of those had a legit chance, the rest were long shots at 25/1 or more. Forever Young is for real, but some don’t like his coming into the race though. And bred big time for the mud with storm cat on the mare side.
Morning works are average is what I meant, best of luck
@@hammertime6148 I think Forever Young is for real too. Good luck!
you can't go wrong with PRAT he hits tri in the derby often & should hit the tri again. ENCINO been working lites out don't leave him off ur ticket. like i said before fierceness wins or doesn't hit the board give me sierra leone top pick.
Sierra Leone on top lock,over cat hing freedom,honor Marie, just steel, catalytic, fierceness, Encino tri, superfectas, high 5, then for the big daddy, I'm taking one of my big longshots over the others I got, I hit it be $$$, I had country house and if I just made a smart bet I would had high 5 that year, I believe over $700,000
Out of 6 mounts Prat has finished worse than 3rd only once. Encino has nothing wrong. He continues to improve. Cox at 20/1. Good luck!
Encino was scratched
Fierceness has never been put to the test, always had every thing his own way,if he wins and he won't he s a Seattle Slew.More likely will be looking for a place to hide before they get to the stretch
He does well when everything goes his way. That will be difficult in a 20 horse field.
Just a touch progresses
Terrell Owens password
That's the first thing I thought when I saw his name.
@@mysteryhandicapper 😆
JJCastellano had been forgotten at this run but he go again with other horse with too much opportunity West Saratoga!!
all do read comments on this non audio video.
Not getting audio? I get audio when I replay it on various devices.
Have audio
You're issue
I also like Just Steel to win
He looks like he is working up to distanc, maybe Belmont Stke?
He liked stretching out in the Arkansas derby finishing 2nd. He might like the extra distance. Good luck!
it might rain imma stick with sierra leone. don,t sleep on strong hold either on your tickets
Rain is definitely in the forecast. SL has yet to run a bad race. Good luck!
As some one who doesnt bet horses your data pointed towards Just a touch
He looked good last time out. Overcame a fast pace to finish second.
Forever Young has beaten who?
nobody !
Good point and UAE derby winners have historically struggled in the Kentucky Derby. But he's perfect and the distance shouldn't be a problem. Using him in my exotics.
Who have any of these horses beat?
@@mysteryhandicapper There haven't been many good good winners of the UAE that have made the KD. I think FY is the real deal. I think 4 best horses in the race are Fierceness, Forever Young, Sierra Leone and Just a Touch.
better horses than the last two kentucky derby winners had beaten.
#9 Encino is Scratch
That's correct. Epic Ride is in.
@@mysteryhandicapper 1 to 2 more scratch the post 17 is moving in a bit more
@@gooeybeast74 It is.
Domestic Product has the final fastest 3/8 of any horse in the race
Domestic Product runs well in the stretch. Irad/Chad at 30/1.
That’s the result of a pace less race and nothing more.
That's because he crawled the first 3/4.
Use some long shot MH😂
I got Honor Marie at 20/1 (will be lower when the gates open) and if I can get 8/1 on Catching Freedom, I'm good with that.
You’re on the wrong page sir
My mistake and my apologies
getting no volume on 2 sets of my headphones. no.volume at all vide W. T. F.
No audio? I have no problems when I replay on my computer or other devices.
@timwalsh8973. Why he's called the Mystery Handicapper. How he sounds is a complete mystery.
Great analysis of the race. Always nice to hear various thoughts about horse racing, it helps to create better opinions and bets on the races.
Info and picks for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks this weekend on my channel. Take a look www.youtube.com/@FastHorsesToday
Thanks! I'll check out your channel. Good luck!
@@mysteryhandicapper Thanks so much, I appreciate it.
win win win$$$$$$$$$ domestick product
Good luck!