Tesla Could Double Profits Next Year, Without Ramping
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.ย. 2023
- Tesla Stock Analyst Tool
www.teslaeconomist.com
Follow me on Twitter @teslaeconomist
/ teslaeconomist
Support the channel on Patreon
/ teslaeconomist
This video is meant for entertainment purposes, not Tesla stock investment advice.
#tesla, #tsla, #teslaStock - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
No one sell a single share B4 2033. PERIOD!
😂😂😂😂that’s realistic.
Everyone diamond hands and let me be the first to sell in mid April 2032 when I will turn 65, so I can get tens of thousands per share!
Imma sell the top
But the dip
I'll maximize my bag ;)
But I'm 92 years old.
79 900 for the long range cyber truck.
69 000 for the dual motor.
This makes sense. They would sell like hot cakes for several years at that price.
You’re not quite seeing it. Tesla is modifying its prices to basically sell all or as much as can be sold of production and production ramp. It is optimizing the maximum ramp given the supply or manufacturing issues. They are calculating that will benefit in the long run by driving costs down and leave a larger fleet when fsd is solved. The profit is to maintain growth and the ability of the company to reach its goals. I expect tesla will always lower prices until they can build and sell every car within 6-8 weeks or less. Thus in 6 months or a year when they hit a dry spell in Highland model 3 sales, there will be price cuts to bring it under $40k. I expect profit margin btw 20-22% to be the average range
Every auto company sells every car they make! Glad to hear someone debunk the misleading claim about “selling every car”!
Fords not selling Mach E’s apparently.
Yes, but those cars will be sold.... eventually. @@ken-mb5cp
@@ken-mb5cpBut it will sell every car it produces - because it can stop production if it needs to.
Tesla was apparently sandbagging the scale of production upgrades this quarter. With both the Austin new vehicle lots empty for the first time and an incredible quantity of equipment lined up for install, this is the mother of all US upgrades.
I agree. Tesla sees the huge demand for M3 refresh and will increase prodection if it in US and MY refresh with higher margins and lower COGS.
Amazing how many people think the richest man on Earth is naive about the best way to run his business.
He’s carrying NASA.
I believe TSLA will have at least two more stock splits
Yes I think at least 1 by 2025
Top!!!
Decontenting has gone as far as margin boosting can be prioritised - I would have thought.
When the mass market versions of the stalkless wonders arrive - things will get VERY INTERESTING.
The issue is not that Tesla sells every car its makes, but that it sells every car it is able to make.
I think the take rate of FSD increases by quite a lot, and energy storage grows a lot, and I don't think you have calculated how much more Austin and Berlin can grow next year. Both factories should make 1.5 million cars a year at full ramp, I believe.
I don't care what anyone else does with their shares. Mine are not for sale until 2032 when I will be 65 and hopefully able to actually retire, if my stock does 10x by then. This is my retire on time and don't work until I die plan. Not everyone is young who has Tesla stock.
I am 79, and still holding!
@@rogermathews145Live long and prosper
So, you are 56.
I am 54.
Sooo much is same!
I am German, and you?
@@rogermathews145 great!
If you believe in the charts Tesla is bearish until it breaks 300 dollars.
If the charts were right consistently we’d all be billionaires
Legacy vehicle like advertising is a waste for Tesla. But, short infomercial like ads could boost sales for models S / X.
As much as I would like to wait selling , my retirement forces me to sell earlier🤷♂️ so I do hope the stock price will go up the next 2-3 years to 400 or 500 (holding 10 K Tesla shares )
I doubt it.
Customers are more and more unhappy with Tesla cars (no USS anymore, no radar anymore, no stalks anymore...)
I'm in the same situation. Not so many shares though. Only 2.8K shares. I believe the stock will reach 500 by the end of 2025. With 10k shares you can start selling gradually for the rest of your life unless you want to do a big buy.
This is why I hate people constantly saying “price doesn’t matter today because I’m in for 20 years”. Not every investor can wait 20 years for gains.
Jeez, you guys have a lot of shares. I retire next year with about 350 shares and was hoping to get to $1,000 per in 2-3 years but I can get by if I have to.
@@pauld3327you’re talking about you not customers. These are the worlds most popular cars.
👍
This channel has become endless speculations about future profits and possible stock price if if if. Tesla is interesting and fascinating in many perspectives, not just in the eye of an accountant clerk.
Love it 😊. I can’t stand the “I’m not selling a single share until 2030” people. We get it, you’re hardcore 😂
Yes. me too. It's so childish. It is as if time will stop in 2030. Deluded fanboys.
@@ramses4321 😊
@@ramses4321Sell now cry later😊
I'm 100% in TSLA Loooooooooong term. Not selling before year 2032 😃
@@mikafiltenborg7572 Parents, pay attention to your kids so we don’t have to.
Tesla will be short for 3 millions on 2024 due to the delays in constructing the Giga Mexico plant. Howerver their profit will still increase due to the other Tesla technology contributions. Energy storage, FSD, Tesla Optimus, etc.
I do wonder if the Tesla compact will be without the high end hardware system. Imagine if Tesla went super cheap, a vehicle that costs them ten grand and they sell it for fourteen thousand dollars in India, China, and other parts of the world that need super cheap units. They will still be the safest in their class, but may lack some of the tech we have gotten use to seeing in their vehicles. It may make so they cannot become robotaxi vehicles, which is probably fine by Tesla.
I do think people might need to temper savings in cost of production with the updates to the 3 and Y. I do think they will spike demand, but I have seen some saying the refresh was 30% cost reduction. I will not join that group. I can see the 10% Lee mentions.
One thing that might be missed by many is part of the new design is things that could prevent some common issues. The tail lights being aligned and more sound deadening materials will likely reduce Tesla service issues and production issues, which is going to save money in service.
Tesla demand based pricing is going to be interesting to see how it plays out. Part of what has people thinking Tesla vehicles are all expensive is all those stories about how Tesla raised prices by thousands of dollars. These high price jumps really build the illusion that Tesla vehicles are all high priced. As an investor, I am fine with the price hikes. Keeping prices down so that car flippers can take the profits Tesla could have had does not help the mission or the company.
I am still in the camp of limit advertising. The vastly improved 3 and eventually Y will likely be amazing advertising by themselves thanks to all the buzz around them. If Cybertruck really has great launch, the Tesla brand will get another boost. Tesla is still building out the service centers and networks which I believe will be crucial for success, especially in North America. On top of that the charging network expansion is still going on at a crazy pace because they need to be ready for much higher number of EV owners. If someone said Tesla has a 100 million dollars to spend on advertising or service, I would put it towards service.
Not advertising and changing the FUD mind virus is short term thinking.
How expensive a car costs. A car is expensive or costs a lot.
The markets move on fear and greed. Best to stay centered.
Berlin 500k cars in 2024
Austin 500k model Y & 200k cyber trucks in 2024
China 1 250k cars (new model 3 will produce 25% more).
California 750
= 3.2 million. What is the problem?
Lee is obsessed with the slow 4680 ramp. Tesla would not be starting Cybertruck production soon if they didn't have a good path to real volume production, meaning they think they got the 4680 handled. Tesla doesn't do negative gross margins on new vehicles, no vehicle has had more than two quarters of negative gross margins for Tesla. So Tesla are confident of volume production for Cybertruck next year. Should I believe Tesla, or Lee?
It would still take a while to hit that rate, even if achieved next year.
Tesla was confident on volume production this year too.
@@TeslaEconomist Model 3, despite production hell they made almost 150,000 in 2018 after releasing it just a few months earlier in 2017 than probably Cybertruck comes out in 2023. They know a lot more now and will not have a paint shop, will not have production hell, will not have all the poor design decisions with hundreds of pieces to make the rear body.
The stainless exterior is easy, cold rolled steel parts will be exactly the same every time once dialed in. Gigacastings will also be the same every time, the main potential issue area is the stamped parts around the passenger cabin, stamping is less than exact and with everything else tight tolerances and exact, it won't work if those stamped parts are off even a little.
But this will be something software engineers and production associates will work together to dial in, and once they get it right they can crank the speed up and Cybertrucks will be flying out the door.
@@TeslaEconomist apples and oranges. Tesla is often late starting delivery of a new product, and I predicted Cybertruck would be late almost immediately because of the huge amount of innovations, and many people were angry at me and called me ignorant. But at the point Tesla starts deliveries of a product they think they have a good path to real volume production within six months, tops. With Model 3 they didn't have a good path, as it turned out, but they got it done anyway. Tesla is not starting Cybertruck production and then making 50,000 in 2024, that is not what Tesla does with mass production vehicles they introduce. You must be thinking about some other EV company if you think there is a chance of that.
Advertising=Expensive!!!! Id be happy if Tesla just used email to existing customers....an.cominformation, communication &PR!!!! All cheap/ free!!!
Lee, I think you'd be wise to use 25% growth in your projections. Look how poorly Mexico is progressing ! It's just hard to grow and all OEM's are struggling as well! I think we'll be fine with 25%!!! (We don't need another fanboy!)
im also coming to the conclusion that Tesla isn't the company we all think it is/was. Lots of delays, and quite frankly execution especially on the factories is pretty slow.
Much of world like India need batteries and reliable electricity more than EVs. Build a mega pack and power wall factory in India
До вечера уеду❤❤
If I were Elon, I will build Giga Canton in Southern China for producing Model 2. It will take 6 to 9 months to finish building the plant. China is the biggest market for Model 2 and therefore makes sense to build another Giga factory in China for domestic consumption and exports.
India of course is an option. Given the Indian bureaucracy, Tesla need to be extremely patient though as it will take the Indians a decade to build a Giga factory 😂
Chinese government did not approve second factory, said the market is already flooded.
@@robertwoodhouse-bm7kttesla also need to hedge against potential conflict between China and the west.
Vietnam
Would Tesla still be profitable without their factory in China ?
Tesla Energy will be bigger than Tesla Auto after year 2030
Troll.
Я уеду скоро на работу илон маск❤❤
Giga Mexico isn’t going anywhere. The whole project is a disaster. So don’t count on Giga Mexico’s Model 2 coming to the market by 2030.
Why is it a disaster ? I heard first cars could come out in 2026
@@pauld3327 Now is already September 2023. So 6 months after the announcement of the project , we don’t even know the schedule of the ground breaking ceremony.
Gordon Johnson - is that you?
They said that about Germany too.
SMR is unwatchable
Yet we watch him.
@@ken-mb5cp hm I don’t. Naive TSLA investors who crave ridiculous confirmation bias do. Maybe that’s you ?
Used to, don’t now. He’s lost touch with reality on Tesla and it’s all a bit puerile for me now.
@@lpb3731 Or you.
Oh, it’s no good sport selling TSLA? Did Elon knows that? Perhaps he should buy some back… 🤣
The current stock price has factored in profit returns until 2035.
😂 No.
@@iainmrodgers9991 You are correct, I got my math wrong, the current stock price has factored in profit returns until 2039.
ok ok I get you are disgruntled ugh
Does it come off that way? Or am I just being a realist?
@@TeslaEconomistI think you are being realist. All is plain to see. Only fanboys can't see it.
@@ramses4321Sure everything doesn’t go perfect and there’s always setbacks and delays but compare them to other automakers. There’s no comparison.
@@TeslaEconomist I think a little of both
anyway I get why you might feel that way.
I don't think Tesla will grow at the current rates. 'Competition is coming' is no longer an empty phrase, it's already come - from China. When Tesla MY is 20 grand more than the Atto 3, when there are now 3 cheap hatchbacks and Tesla has no Model 2, when there's nothing particularly special about Tesla's two models that differentiate them from sedans from Zeekr, BYD and others, then they will only be able to move volume when they aggressively cut prices. I guess that's what the M3 and MY updates to Highland and Juniper have been about. Setting the foundation for significant price cuts to compete in the SUV and Sedan BEV market.
There really isn't any proper competition. Said Chinese competition are only really "competitive" in China, and they still dont make profits. Tesla don't need to offer dirt cheap EVs like BYD. The market is plenty big at around $25k.
@@TeslaEconomist I can't speak for the UUK or US markets, but the Australian market sees the MY way way out in front, but the M3 is being regularly beaten on monthly sales now by the BYD Atto3. Which is $15k AUD cheaper and has only about 100km less range, and is an SUV, whereas the M3 doesn't even have a hatch so is useless for carrying anything bulky. I don't think the recent Highland upgrade has addressed this. Trying to protect MY sales by not making the M3 a hatch is a decision made in a vacuum. People will start to choose other models. The Volvo EX30 for instance. And the MG4, Dolphin and Ora Cat will also steal a large slice of the market that might have saved up for a M3 but will now opt for something significantly cheaper.
That means Tesla are relying on just ONE CAR. They criticise Ford for relying on the Ford Ranger / F150, their few models of utes/trucks, but Tesla are in fact in a far more precarious position. But as you point out, they have all the other strings to their bow. And perhaps they have indeed upgraded in order to be able to have far more room to move on price, if it's true that the M3 is now getting the same gigacasting treatment that the MY is.
But Chinese BEVs will not stay in China for much longer, let me be clear.
The hatchback version of the Model 3 already exists, it’s called the Model Y. I like the Atto 3 and have driven one but it’s no Model 3/Y
@@yggdrasil9039I'm with you.
Tesla cars are less and less attractive (no USS, no radars, no rain sensors and now no stalks anymore) while competitors are starting to make compelling EVs.
I wanted to buy the new Model 3 but the lack of stalks put me off. I'm now considering the Volvo EX-30 but unfortunately first deliveries only start in 6 months.
The driving experience of Tesla cars is not good anymore.
Competition is only coming for ICE-CARS 😂
You’re so salty. It’s hilarious.