I agree with you that it depends on the course (and the specific hole), that you can't make a decision just based general yardage numbers. I also agree that it's somewhat comforting to know that the pros don't always hit it super close or make putts.
Right?! That was life-changing for me, because the regular tour coverage is really only the highlights and totally skewed my perspective on what a good shot was. Until PGA Tour live featured Tiger back in 2018 and I watched his whole round...wow, what a realization! So many "normal" shots! 😅
The actual answer is: it depends. It depends on what your misses are and it depends on the type of course you’re playing. If you’re playing on a bit, open, boring American-style course then it may often be worth going for it as the downside is just rough. If you’re playing on woodland courses where there are trees, thorn bushes and waist-high grass as little as 6 yards away from the edge of the green, maybe not. If your miss is a weak fadey shot that ends-up short-right, then worst case scenario is just a bunker. If your miss is a big pull that sails 30 yards further and 40 yards left of your target and is straight OOB, again, you may want to think carefully about taking that on.
Fantastic summary! 100% agree - that was the reason I added in that segment about the US Open and courses that have features that are extra penalizing. It definitely depends. What I initially did this research on was the value of trying to eke out an additional few yards from a drive, especially when you're playing the same course regularly and the conditions allow you to try for an extra few yards -- then how do you decide what to hit given the available data about strokes gained from various distances and lies.
Love this video and this topic! Data lies sometimes. Or at least it misleads. 15' is the AVERAGE from 100 yards and 15' is two-putt territory all day. But sticking five shots to 5' and ten 20' still averages to 15', but in reality you had five solid birdie looks. Compare that to the 17' average from 120 yards out. 17' is two putt territory all day again but lets say we stuck it to 5' twice and 20' eight times. THREE birdie looks less than from 100 yards out. The juice might be worth the squeeze. This is where the other forms of averages and Normal Distributions do a really good job at painting a better picture. But the prep for that video would be crazy. Let me know if you need a hand! haha (not joking)
Great (and huge) point! Thanks for pointing that out 😀 I chose to use averages here because a) I wanted to look at it from a SG perspective over time b) I was looking for a formula to use all the time and not just for a specific shot, and c) it's dreaming of the low side of the average that gets me into trouble 😅 Would love to hear your thoughts on how you'd consider painting a better picture. If you're keen, do you mind dropping me an email at upbeatgolfer@gmail?
The proximity to the hole combined with put length is not good enough statistics. The best statistics would be to have arcos or garmin like statistics from a course and see the average scoring from the different areas of the course weighted on the ability of the player. So one area would have 2,5 strokes for a scratch player while another one will have 1,8 strokes etc. When you then analyze expected outcomes based on this statistics you could more proficiently calculate your options.
Yes, that data would be amazing! Unfortunately that data isn't available to most of us, and varies from course to course, so I found the closest proxy which was pro data averaged across all courses. Also Lou Stagner (one of the authors of the data) is the Head Data Scientist at Arccos so I figured the results were probably in line with the other stuff he sees. And of course every shot varies because of course conditions, how your swing is, how you played this hole the last time, what you had for lunch etc., but I find this formula to be a helpful starting point in determining a relatively good data-oriented strategy.
I’m assuming this is only in relation to driver off the tee? It doesn’t make sense to “swing harder” than a full shot - a full swing is already a full swing. To swing harder is to swing out of balance. Better to change clubs, hit a draw, etc
Yes, mostly driver/tee shots from a 10 extra yards perspective, though personally I usually hit my clubs at 80-90% so there's room to swing a bit harder in balance if I'm looking for more yardage or spin etc. Totally agree with you on doing something other than swinging out of balance! I've found this also applies to situations in which you're laying up strategically, e.g. if you're punching out from under trees and you can get 10-30+ yards closer if you hit it a bit harder...BUT you have to be more precise to avoid trouble. And so in that case, this model helps me quantify the benefit of getting closer and taking on that risk.
Cool video, really clever analysis -- thank you! For me, 10 at Moffet is too narrow to confidently hit driver. Your analysis seems to assume everyone hits it straight enough that the only risk is greenside on that one -- correct?
Yes, basically re: hitting it straight enough with driver. Also it opens up as you get closer to the green so you can be a little offline on either side and it's not too bad. Or you can be REALLY offline on the right and there's usually room between the trees from the 9th fairway 😅 Personally I've found that the hole looks intimidating from the tee but you only need to be super precise with your drive when the tees are set up on the left of the teebox. Then it's more of a 3i stinger (attempt) for me! Great point though - it definitely varies from person to person, especially if a hole doesn't fit your shot shape. What do you usually do on 10? And thanks for the kind words! Glad you liked the video!
@@upbeatgolfer Thanks for asking! I typically hit a 180 club, which for me is either a 4w/5w into the headwind (and with rollout being minimal from Moffet's kikuyu grass). I have also been experimenting with a punched driver off my back foot but the problem with that is the attempted "low cut" comes out as a pull too often for it to feel like a percentage shot
Nice - and makes sense! Personally I find punched drivers pretty hard to hit precisely. How does the hole usually end up for you? 180 leaves a nice 120ish second shot so I'm guessing you usually make par? Also if ou're interested there's a really good TXG video about hitting driver into the wind that you might find useful: th-cam.com/video/pxjT43blIpk/w-d-xo.html
Golf is played on grass, not on paper. Without knowledge of the lie of the ball and turf conditions, data means precisely nothing. If the golfer has no knowledge of how a ball reacts from any given lie, then using data becomes more harmful to their game because they're never thinking or learning. thanks for coming to my ted talk.
Well this is awesome. The Legend himself - great to have you here Matt! Big fan 😃 1000% agreed on the lie and overall shot conditions. Definitely THE first thing to consider before trying to get more yards. That's what I was trying to get at in the part about the US Open and adjusting to the conditions at 20:10. Also agreed on not relying too much on data without understanding the other aspects of the game first, BUT I also find data to be helpful in leveling expectations and helping me play STRESS-FREE golf!
Have you seen the video of the guy that shoots a complete round with a mid iron, and ends up about 4 or6 strokes over par? Does that tell you something without using10,000 words?
Ah no I haven't seen that one. Mind sharing it with me? And not sure I follow your point about what it tells us? If I had to guess I'd say you mean that distance doesn't matter, is that right?
Haha yes, not a huge gain framed like that. And even worse when you consider that you can't go for an extra 10 yards on every one of the 14 drives in a round! So going for an extra 10-20y is pretty marginal for most of us (unless you're getting inside 50y). The thing I use this formula for is to figure out when I'm better off (or the same) going for more yardage, or perhaps laying up. So on a one-off basis, this helps me make a slightly more optimal decision for a shot, and over time those decisions should add up to more birdies (from 0.03 strokes here, 0.05 strokes there etc.). In general though, I totally agree with you, an incremental 10 yards from a drive is really only valuable from an ego perspective 😅
No no no please just stop with all these numbers …. If hitting it harder brings trouble into play 🤷🏻♂️ . Whats the chances the golf gods are looking the other way ?
Haha ok you don't have to worry about the numbers. Personally I got tempted to go for that extra bit of distance to bring eagle or birdie into play, so decided to look into the math, and came up a reasonable formula. Also, where's the fun if there isn't a bit of trouble in play 😉
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I agree with you that it depends on the course (and the specific hole), that you can't make a decision just based general yardage numbers. I also agree that it's somewhat comforting to know that the pros don't always hit it super close or make putts.
Right?! That was life-changing for me, because the regular tour coverage is really only the highlights and totally skewed my perspective on what a good shot was.
Until PGA Tour live featured Tiger back in 2018 and I watched his whole round...wow, what a realization! So many "normal" shots! 😅
@@upbeatgolfer Totally! Looks like they make every long putt and hit every iron next to the pin.
Seriously. They're bamboozling us amateurs!
my 2 passions: golf and data-driven analysis!
Ha yes! Mine too (also chocolate)! 🙌
Content keeps getting better and better. Great way of breaking this stuff down and reinforcing in through many examples.
Thanks Erik! Glad you find it useful and really appreciate your letting me know 😃
Great stuff again Manu! Have been waiting for your next posting! Always great information!
Thanks Phil! I got sidetracked for a bit there but now back on the video train, so you should see these more often!
Great info! Thank you for putting it together, you made it incredibly easy to understand and definitely changed my mind about course management!
Glad you liked it! And THANK YOU for letting me know - it means a lot 😃
The actual answer is: it depends. It depends on what your misses are and it depends on the type of course you’re playing. If you’re playing on a bit, open, boring American-style course then it may often be worth going for it as the downside is just rough. If you’re playing on woodland courses where there are trees, thorn bushes and waist-high grass as little as 6 yards away from the edge of the green, maybe not. If your miss is a weak fadey shot that ends-up short-right, then worst case scenario is just a bunker. If your miss is a big pull that sails 30 yards further and 40 yards left of your target and is straight OOB, again, you may want to think carefully about taking that on.
Fantastic summary! 100% agree - that was the reason I added in that segment about the US Open and courses that have features that are extra penalizing. It definitely depends.
What I initially did this research on was the value of trying to eke out an additional few yards from a drive, especially when you're playing the same course regularly and the conditions allow you to try for an extra few yards -- then how do you decide what to hit given the available data about strokes gained from various distances and lies.
Love this video and this topic!
Data lies sometimes. Or at least it misleads.
15' is the AVERAGE from 100 yards and 15' is two-putt territory all day. But sticking five shots to 5' and ten 20' still averages to 15', but in reality you had five solid birdie looks. Compare that to the 17' average from 120 yards out. 17' is two putt territory all day again but lets say we stuck it to 5' twice and 20' eight times. THREE birdie looks less than from 100 yards out. The juice might be worth the squeeze.
This is where the other forms of averages and Normal Distributions do a really good job at painting a better picture. But the prep for that video would be crazy. Let me know if you need a hand! haha (not joking)
Great (and huge) point! Thanks for pointing that out 😀
I chose to use averages here because
a) I wanted to look at it from a SG perspective over time
b) I was looking for a formula to use all the time and not just for a specific shot, and
c) it's dreaming of the low side of the average that gets me into trouble 😅
Would love to hear your thoughts on how you'd consider painting a better picture. If you're keen, do you mind dropping me an email at upbeatgolfer@gmail?
Great info manu!! when are we seeing some course vlog content??
Thanks for checking in Inno! It's in the works! Got some footage that needs editing and planning for more this weekend 😃
Great video thanks
Glad you liked it! And thanks for letting me know! I really appreciate it 😃
The proximity to the hole combined with put length is not good enough statistics. The best statistics would be to have arcos or garmin like statistics from a course and see the average scoring from the different areas of the course weighted on the ability of the player. So one area would have 2,5 strokes for a scratch player while another one will have 1,8 strokes etc. When you then analyze expected outcomes based on this statistics you could more proficiently calculate your options.
Yes, that data would be amazing! Unfortunately that data isn't available to most of us, and varies from course to course, so I found the closest proxy which was pro data averaged across all courses. Also Lou Stagner (one of the authors of the data) is the Head Data Scientist at Arccos so I figured the results were probably in line with the other stuff he sees.
And of course every shot varies because of course conditions, how your swing is, how you played this hole the last time, what you had for lunch etc., but I find this formula to be a helpful starting point in determining a relatively good data-oriented strategy.
Im still going for it.... JK. 60% of the time, it works every time :)
You just gotta keep trying it until it works right? We ain't no quitters 😅
Always the hardest decision in golf
You said it! Literally every hole I think about this 😅
I’m assuming this is only in relation to driver off the tee? It doesn’t make sense to “swing harder” than a full shot - a full swing is already a full swing. To swing harder is to swing out of balance. Better to change clubs, hit a draw, etc
Yes, mostly driver/tee shots from a 10 extra yards perspective, though personally I usually hit my clubs at 80-90% so there's room to swing a bit harder in balance if I'm looking for more yardage or spin etc. Totally agree with you on doing something other than swinging out of balance!
I've found this also applies to situations in which you're laying up strategically, e.g. if you're punching out from under trees and you can get 10-30+ yards closer if you hit it a bit harder...BUT you have to be more precise to avoid trouble. And so in that case, this model helps me quantify the benefit of getting closer and taking on that risk.
got you. cheers man!@@upbeatgolfer
Cool video, really clever analysis -- thank you! For me, 10 at Moffet is too narrow to confidently hit driver. Your analysis seems to assume everyone hits it straight enough that the only risk is greenside on that one -- correct?
Yes, basically re: hitting it straight enough with driver. Also it opens up as you get closer to the green so you can be a little offline on either side and it's not too bad. Or you can be REALLY offline on the right and there's usually room between the trees from the 9th fairway 😅
Personally I've found that the hole looks intimidating from the tee but you only need to be super precise with your drive when the tees are set up on the left of the teebox. Then it's more of a 3i stinger (attempt) for me!
Great point though - it definitely varies from person to person, especially if a hole doesn't fit your shot shape. What do you usually do on 10?
And thanks for the kind words! Glad you liked the video!
@@upbeatgolfer Thanks for asking! I typically hit a 180 club, which for me is either a 4w/5w into the headwind (and with rollout being minimal from Moffet's kikuyu grass). I have also been experimenting with a punched driver off my back foot but the problem with that is the attempted "low cut" comes out as a pull too often for it to feel like a percentage shot
Nice - and makes sense! Personally I find punched drivers pretty hard to hit precisely. How does the hole usually end up for you? 180 leaves a nice 120ish second shot so I'm guessing you usually make par?
Also if ou're interested there's a really good TXG video about hitting driver into the wind that you might find useful: th-cam.com/video/pxjT43blIpk/w-d-xo.html
Golf is played on grass, not on paper.
Without knowledge of the lie of the ball and turf conditions, data means precisely nothing.
If the golfer has no knowledge of how a ball reacts from any given lie, then using data becomes more harmful to their game because they're never thinking or learning.
thanks for coming to my ted talk.
Well this is awesome. The Legend himself - great to have you here Matt! Big fan 😃
1000% agreed on the lie and overall shot conditions. Definitely THE first thing to consider before trying to get more yards. That's what I was trying to get at in the part about the US Open and adjusting to the conditions at 20:10.
Also agreed on not relying too much on data without understanding the other aspects of the game first, BUT I also find data to be helpful in leveling expectations and helping me play STRESS-FREE golf!
Hey Manu - Love the thought process. We should chat!! What’s the best way to contact you?
Hey - glad you liked it! Would love to chat. Please email me: upbeatgolfer at gmail, and we can set it up!
Have you seen the video of the guy that shoots a complete round with a mid iron, and ends up about 4 or6 strokes over par? Does that tell you something without using10,000 words?
Ah no I haven't seen that one. Mind sharing it with me? And not sure I follow your point about what it tells us? If I had to guess I'd say you mean that distance doesn't matter, is that right?
200 yards from the pin.. in the bunker with a tree in the way?… if tiger can do it so can I 😂
100% - how are you supposed to get your name on a plaque if you're not hitting hero shots?!
Okay but what is 0.03 x 14 drives x 4 rounds? 1.7 strokes.
Haha yes, not a huge gain framed like that. And even worse when you consider that you can't go for an extra 10 yards on every one of the 14 drives in a round! So going for an extra 10-20y is pretty marginal for most of us (unless you're getting inside 50y).
The thing I use this formula for is to figure out when I'm better off (or the same) going for more yardage, or perhaps laying up. So on a one-off basis, this helps me make a slightly more optimal decision for a shot, and over time those decisions should add up to more birdies (from 0.03 strokes here, 0.05 strokes there etc.). In general though, I totally agree with you, an incremental 10 yards from a drive is really only valuable from an ego perspective 😅
No no no please just stop with all these numbers …. If hitting it harder brings trouble into play 🤷🏻♂️ .
Whats the chances the golf gods are looking the other way ?
Haha ok you don't have to worry about the numbers. Personally I got tempted to go for that extra bit of distance to bring eagle or birdie into play, so decided to look into the math, and came up a reasonable formula. Also, where's the fun if there isn't a bit of trouble in play 😉
Clear as mud
😬