I think if the console is really shipping with nothing new (according to Pyoro rumour and model leak), they would skip the reveal phase. They don’t have to worry about leaks as it’s just self-explanatory and the spec are boring. On the other hand, if they have some big surprise(I.e. noticeable new hardware feature they want to market), do not expect it to be leaked at least before a few days from the announcement.
@@QnjtGWonQNqVsbYyzjx4exactly. They don’t need a long reveal to release window. People have been anticipating the switch 2 for 3 years now. It’ll be a simple upgrade and that’s all many want
Due to CES taking over the tech news during the week of the 6th to 10th, January 8 feels awfully unlikely to me. It's not _impossible_ for an unrelated announcement to catch the headlines (the iPhone in 2007 was a notable exception of taking over headlines during CES despite not being there), but it's a difficult task and probably ill advised.
This is so much more interesting and meaningful than everyone else's coverage on cringe rumors. Insight based on evidence and trend analysis. But I know it takes a lot more work so thank you!
NintenTalk has heard that January 23rd is the date of the first reveal or teaser. He heard it from one or more game developers from a major studio, and Nintendo gave them the date in order to time the marketing for their own Switch 2 software. The 23rd is 10 days after Donkey Kong and the only event near it is the inauguration on the 20th.
This is really close to the Trump Admin getting back into the White House. I’m worried there will be too much media chaos for this console to get much coverage outside of the already large (but not all encompassing) gaming news sphere. Hmm. I guess we will see how it plays out. End of January makes a lot of sense.
It's possible, perhaps likely, that they could have multiple possible dates reserved so they can be flexible to the media environment at the time. 23rd could be the earliest of these.
The only reason I can see for Nintendo to rush an announcement in early January is if they wanted to make a strategic move around the possible new tariffs.
I think another boon for a january reveal is that the Superbowl is happening in early February. It's not something the Switch 2 is necessarily in dire need of, but if you're gonna have to reveal your console within the next three months anyway, it would be strange not to go for such an opportunity. January 8th feels too much like wishful thinking, it just so happens to be the very next date feasibly possible. It'd be nice, but we'll see.
Terrible idea, typical American that thinks their country is the center of the world. Guess what, kid: Super bowl ads are mostly just shown in the US, most international broadcasters show their own ads, and it's your usual boring stuff, nothing like the American ads. Secondly, Japan doesn't give a damn about American football, and that's Nintendo's second biggest market. In Nintendo's third biggest market, Europe, the Super Bowl half time show is like at 3 AM. That's why you don't see a lot of game ads in Super Bowl, because it's a global market, opposed to movies, where half of the revenue comes from the US alone. Thus, for them it makes sense to pay for a Super Bowl add.
I would love to see the data on how much of Nintendo's target audience actually watch the Superbowl. Yes, I understand that ads take on a life of their own, but I just don't think they have a game that justifies the expense. Though I personally have lost faith in them, companies like EA should purchase Superbowl ads. It would also be the perfect opportunity to reveal a GTA6 release date. Of all the gaming channels I follow, I suspect _maybe_ 10% would tune in for an event like the Superbowl.
@@seedofwonder I think no matter what the superbowl remains a guaranteed oppurtunity to have a ton of eyes on your advertising at once. Even if not everyone watching is interested in gaming, at the very least it still spreads brand awareness really well. And I'd be willing to bet that a large portion of the audience would at least know someone in their extended familly who might want a nintendo game for christmas.
@@birdflox1337 It's a massive event, and I think they would in reality get a full return on their investment. As you say, there are so many eyes glued to screens that it would be difficult not to. But I wonder if they understand it that way. Considering the game-specific events they snub, their M.O. seems to be to avoid any context where their content might get lost. So while I think they would, as you say, spread brand awareness, they seem wary of having their brand and marketing strategy get outstaged by, e.g., a cola company that would invest millions just to produce the ad. But I would be happy to be wrong.
I think your last video was spot on and the most likely. People are underestimating how much Nintendo wants to bring another 6-12 months of success to the switch and are willing to continue delaying a reveal for a system we probably know everything about anyway, to that end. I think aside from the deadline of their promise to show more information, they will continue to focus on switch 1 to hardcore fans frustration. Also I wouldn’t be surprised if there are features we simple wouldn’t be able to guess from seeing the leaked hardware. Regardless this is not an earth shattering new console concept. So they can push switch 1 and 2 and only se more games.
Interesting and I'm sure accurate. Not sure if this is coincidence though (they used to have much longer ramp-up times than is now common) or about managing investor expectations around the turn of the financial year. Worth looking into.
People are trying to force Nintendo's hand. However, the company did put themselves in weird spot not having a ND in September. The way they shadow dropped XCX gives the impression that it was the last announcement. I dont believe so. They also have until the end of February.
Switch Pro coming 8th of January lol I also have been thinking about the Switch 1 direct since you posted that video. I think there is very little chance a presentation on Switch 2 has nothing to say about Switch 1
I don't know if I've ever seen anyone make this connection between Nintendo Directs and game releases, like seriously from games journalists to pro analysts to regular youtubers I dont think I've seen anyone pick up on this.
A December 31st/January 1st reveal seems more likely to me. Get kids to talk about it during the new year’s celebrations! Make parents very upset cause they just bought them the original switch 😂
I thought we were supposed to see a reveal way earlier this year. I remember they announced a direct while being very clear that they were going to reveal the Switch's successor in it's own thing soon after.
I think the reveal kinda has to be sometime in January in my mind, even if it's not the 8th. February doesn't have a game slated but we're likely gonna get a different kind of direct that month plus the Pokemon Presents, so that would be kinda overload. March is the latest we know they'd reveal it, but that's also the month a lot of rumorers are sticking by as the release (even though I kinda doubt it at this point), plus there's the same issue as Returns HD with Xenoblade X. April-June is when I think the launch will actually be, so revealing it in January and having a 4-6 month hype cycle just makes the most sense to me, even if they probably don't need that long for a stronger Switch.
if there is a switch 2 reveal in early january - US and EU most likely had to prepare translation already before their christmas break. And having a christmas break with the danger of someone is leaking those preparation work information - is not a risk Nintendo will take. So they start their engines on that in the new year. And that will take some days as well to be finished. So early january is unlikely in my opinion.
Nintendo has had to work with many people outside of the company when creating the Switch 2. Just think of the factories that are already making and packing the thing. Why do you think they wouldn't hire translators for a reveal at this time? Besides, they have already had to translate manuals and text on the packaging, and nothing of that has leaked.
I think the supposed reveal for Switch 2 (the 3 minutes ad like Switch) is not gonna happen & they're going directly to make the announcment in Jan (like Jan 2017) with the release late March/April, since there's little to no reason for a reveal.. 2 reasons for cancelling the reveal & going striaght to announcement: - Switch 2 is just a more powerful hybrid, unlike the Switch which was innovative & very different from the WiiU so it needed to be shown to the public early as it was a new idea. - Nintendo's approach when it comes to the game announcements to release cycle generally changed since 2019 (after Furukawa became president), meaning they announce a new game & release it a month or 2 later, at worst no more than 6 months from announcement to release (except TotK) & sometimes they release it earlier (Xenoblade 3). I think your video is well thought out & I can see it happening more likely than my theory (which is wishful thinking from my side), still I think Nintendo releasing Switch 2 beyond Apr is too late. DKCR & XenoX both are ports that will sell on both systems regardless so even if the announcement is in early Jan it'll be fine I think 😁
@CommonwealthRealm once released a video (about a year ago) claiming that Nintendo has never had a console officially revealed and released in different fiscal years. I think at the time there was a rumor of a late 23 reveal for a holiday 24 release.
3:25 As a side note, I wish that is true. Nintendo has ignored DK for an exceedingly long time. I do hope they’re really cooking towards a substantial comeback.
They'll probably unveil it closer to launch. Announcing it too early means a long wait, and some people might forget. So unless it drops in early March, it'll be late January or February (or later depending on when it'll be released).
Consider also that CES is that week, and a bunch of announcements are expected in the handheld gaming space. Lenovo are going to unveil the Legion Go S. AMD are going to unveil their Zen Extreme 2 chip. And Valve are expected to announce SteamOS, which will revolutionise the industry. If I were Nintendo, I would be considering timing the Switch 2 announcement to steal as much of that spotlight as possible.
I think what a lot of Nintendo influencer should do is create a video saying that the Switch “2” will be revealed next week. Then release the same video at 5pm local time each Friday. Eventually they will be right. Im looking at you AndresRestart, Nintendo Prime, Sunbro Nation et all. 😅
Great analysis as always. Personally I still can't see the next genral direct being solely switch 1 focused. That is unless the switch 2 "event" you described preceeding it is a stunning event that shows lots of Switch 2 exclusives that will make the system a must buy. While Nintendo definitely don't want to kill switch 1 sales, or make owners feel like their console is obsolete, they also wouldn't want to muddy the waters. Announcing the switch 2 with not many games, and then during the next anticipated reveal event, revealing no new switch 2 games may leave audiences wondering if the launch lineup will actually be good. They may feel there might not be much incentive to purchase the Switch 2 if there aren't many exclusives for it. I feel like Nintendo wants people to know out of the gate, the Switch 2 is a must buy system with lots of exclusive games on the way and a few very soon. The definitely want switch 1 owners to still feel supported, but I feel like that will mostly be through ports and smaller titles, not something to kick off the year in a direct with.
The more I reflect on your recent videos, the more compelling I find the logic of an early Switch 1 Direct. If the Switch 2 is going to be backwards compatible, I don't think it would cannibalize game sales as much as people might assume. But until there is actual new hardware available, they would be foolish not to maintain a consistent release schedule of new/remastered software. As you say, not only would it alienate people who just purchased a Switch over the holidays, but it would also be leaving a lot of money on the table. I also feel a weird tension regarding the reveal and release of the new console. I'm a diehard Xenoblade fan. I logged about 500 hours in Xenoblade Chronicles X on Wii U. It was the sole reason I even bought the console, and I am still pleased with my Wii U purchase. But I have mixed feelings about the timing of the DE because I will want to savor the experience and not just rush through the base game to play the epilogue. In other words, Nintendo have given me an amazing gift, but one that will demand a significant time investment next year. So it's a shame it could not have been moved up to December 2024 (like XC3 moved from September to July). XCX needs more time to breathe than it appears it will get, and I worry how that might impact their support for the series.
I felt the same with 2023 with the successive releases of Engage, Prime, Advance Wars, Zelda and Pikmin but ultimately this falls into a "good problem to have". They will always want a flow of games and actually XCX releasing at this point probably gives it more elbow room than if it released during a busier period. I think they know that XCX is a substantial enough release to tide them over for 5-6 weeks (they frequently don't put out an April game) and if the May/June games appeal to, probably, a different audience (e.g. a Kirby port, a casual title, Mario Baseball) it could be the biggest game of its type for a few months which is about as good a positioning as you can really wish for what is, ultimately, a port of a niche game. (Having said that, I'm really excited for X. Just starting XC3 and loving it so far.).
@nintendoforecast You are certainly correct that XCX is a niche title. I am so pleased with the level of excitement for the DE, which no doubt has been elevated by the much larger install base and how much the series has grown since 2015. I guess my real fear is that new hardware will drop and the active community will experience a mass exodus, but the Switch is so successful that my concern is probably unjustified. I sincerely hope you continue to enjoy your time with XC3.
This makes sense, dude. I'm very skeptical of anything but minor announcements on the 6th-10th, it's just still too close to the holidays and too early in the year. January is usually a pretty quiet month for most companies, even with Nintendo's out of the box weirdness. The 13th-17th obviously not like you said, due to DKCR HD. The 20th-24th and 27th-31st is wide open though, and if your theory is correct about it releasing in April it would have to be in that 2 week window. I will say though if we don't get anything by the end of January I don't think we're gonna get this thing until at least June. Because if they don't say anything before their investor's call I don't see them saying anything until the very last second in March and by that point they won't make a Q2 maybe even release. There are a few interesting routes this can take and I'm truly wondering how long Nintendo can make it's fanbase suffer before they'll finally cave because now we're just getting shit leaked, which is why I'm thinking that maybe this system will release sooner rather than later.
I’ve said it from the beginning. You cannot reveal a console while marketing g a game. It completely invalidates that money you spent. It would either have to be right at the start of January, or a week after dkcrhd
Imo a week after DKCRHD to a week before pokemon presents is the key spot so Jan 27-31st or Feb 10th-21st. I also think the investor briefing is a spot to look at not just obv for what it is, but because they've given Switch Successor news at every meeting (that's had a Q/A) so far. I wouldn't be surprised if the announcement tweet people are waiting for is something that is tweeted after the investor briefing. Also could be before investor meeting similar to how Alarmo was. This would also allow them to get it out before the Superbowl if that really does matter. February is looking empty rn so if there is a game i assume it releases in that time between the briefing and pokemon presents so that would put the reveal Jan 27th-31st. I could see them reveal so investors could ask questions then announce a Switch Direct right after which shadow drops a Feb game, possibly Metroid prime 2-3.
First time I'm hearing of the 8th of january rumours, but yeah, I definitely agree with that being an overly optimistic prediction. I do kinda feel like it's likely enough for it to be revealed before early february, what with the next financial report being around that time. So I'm inclined to agree with the late january prediction, even if I do kind of want them to just, get it over with by now.
I feel like we have to get someone kind of announcement in January like a trailer or something and then in February have a nintendo direct for its games
Yup, they've confirmed the Switch 2 will be fully backwards compatible, and the Nintendo Switch Online service and classic-console channels are coming.
GTA6 is the most anticipated video game ever. Something I'm interested in is the effect GTA6 will have on Nintendo in three areas. Firstly, the release date. GTA6 is likely to release this fall. Would Nintendo shift its games to release outside, say, a three week margin of GTA6's release? Secondly, would Nintendo stand to lose much if GTA6 doesn't come to Switch 2? GTA6 is a system seller on its own and could greatly boost PS5 and XSX sales. Thirdly, what could Nintendo stand to gain. Would the people who would've otherwise bought the aforementioned consoles instead realize they could also play the game on the go and buy a Switch 2 instead?
January 8th is very soon after the holiday season. You’ll have a lot of unhappy customers who just bought their kids a switch for Christmas. My prediction is the start of March for a reveal, with a release in November (only half joking but I think a release for Holiday 25 is not unlikely)
Forecaster-kun might have touched on it, but this coming year is the Mario series's 40th anniversary. Hopefully Super Mario Galaxy 2 will go on sale this year for the Switch and Switch 2 to succeed the Super Mario 3D All-Stars collection.
Now, I’m not one to fall into the rumormill, but I could see the January 8th predictions being right only in a specific set of circumstances. Namely, if it’s a 3 minute trailer and only if Nintendo does it to surprise and delight us, as they usually aim to do with their announcements. Otherwise, I’m always one to remain skeptical, even if the whole of the community speculates and is INCREDIBLY positive a thing will happen on one specific date. …Also slightly schadenfreude. It would be very funny for people to put all their eggs in the January 8th basket only for those eggs to get stomped on by Mario yet again.
Basically its not impossible that it'll happen soon but dont be surprised if it doesnt As we all know Nintendo is the king of left field, so you just cant predict nintendo.
I feel like this is what's going to happen, Nintendo is going to give us a codename for the next console by March or April 2025 to say yes a Switch successor is on the way but it'll come out in 2026, I'd say 2026 is more likely because of how Nintendo is going to want to piggyback off their success of what 2023 did. 2023 saw the release of the Super Mario Bros. movie from Illumination and Universal and how that film surpassed the first Frozen movie as the #1 animated movie of all time, June 2023, Nintendo announced Super Mario Bros. Wonder and that was the fastest selling Mario game because of the Super Mario Bros. movie according to Furukawa. now the Super Mario Bros. movie 2 might surpass Frozen II at the box office and if Nintendo sees that, that's when the next console will get announced and they might launch it with a 3D Mario game to make sure that the successor has a great launch for that year. The reason I think 2025 is unlikely as these leakers are saying is because it could a repeat of the Wii U's launch and I'm sure Nintendo has learned from the Wii U and wants to make sure that the Switch successor has a strong launch and sells well with that 3D Mario game plus F-Zero and Splatoon 4 at launch.
Um.... "not rushing out an announcement"??? We should already have the switch 2 released already, we should have gotten the reveal like literally a year ago, that's the exact opposite of rushed
It's off-topic on the video, but I've been thinking about Smash Bros Ultimate, and how much it raised the bar. I wonder if it would be smarter to launch an "SBU Deluxe + something extra content" (all fighters, maybe updated graphics, and an extra big feature like Bowser's Fury was to 3DWorld) Then, do the Mario Kart Deluxe strategy and release a new Fighter pass.
Off how? Not sure why but I did record many recent videos (and the next few) in a batch before my Christmas break. My voice was still recovering from a cold. This last one was recorded in a different location.
I was convinced before but today I woke up with a weird feeling that it is not gonna be January, I don't know what it is but I sense it's February, I can see a short commercial in January at most but not the whole detailed presentation.
They’re not gonna announce it until March. And if that’s the case there’s no way this thing is coming out in the first half of the year. Holiday 2025 is the absolute soonest we should expect it
There is still a chance of it releasing earlier in the year. I'm pretty sure there was a leak that they've already got consoles being sent to warehouses. If this has actually been happening for the past few months then I can see the possibility of it releasing sometime in Spring. These are rumours so you could be right, but I doubt they're going to wait that long for an announcement as they have surely seen the countless amount of leaks happening and they would hopefully realise that it could get worse. All we can really do is wait 🤞🤞🤞.
@AidensHorrorHouse the info we have on the Switch 2's manufacturing and stockpiling isn't a rumor, that's pretty set in stone now. whether or not nintendo is fine with a couple of months worth of advertising is the question.
@@xAfroMetalHead1990x Its gonna be announced before April. Thinking it'll come out 9 months after being announced is.... not even a hot take, its just straight up not happening.
Man, your content is just total trash. The Switch 2 probably won't be revealed January 8th because there's not enough smoke and just because any specific date is unlikely, but DKCRHD is an extremely low budget remake outsourced to a shovelware dev. They do not care about this title and using that as your evidence sucks.
Only reason switch 2 should release in 2025 is if theres some good 3rd party titles in the first 3 months otherwise they should push it more towards 2026 or 2027 The games need to take advantage of the hardware imo
Switch 2 is going to be announced in a general direct in febuary. It'll be the opener say it's backwards compatible and then go on to show games on switch 1 with zero switch 2 exclusives and an announcement of another direct in the future which will focus on the successor which is launching after the summer. The next direct the same month will be a Pokemon presents showing ZA and a tease at multiplat next gen which will be on switch and switch 2 with some bonuses on switch 2 mostly better processing.
Switch 2 reveal next week. Trust 😂
Fr
I think if the console is really shipping with nothing new (according to Pyoro rumour and model leak), they would skip the reveal phase. They don’t have to worry about leaks as it’s just self-explanatory and the spec are boring.
On the other hand, if they have some big surprise(I.e. noticeable new hardware feature they want to market), do not expect it to be leaked at least before a few days from the announcement.
@@QnjtGWonQNqVsbYyzjx4exactly. They don’t need a long reveal to release window. People have been anticipating the switch 2 for 3 years now. It’ll be a simple upgrade and that’s all many want
If I’ve learned anything, it’s tomorrow. If it’s not tomorrow, then it’s tomorrow
Two more weeks
I think you're onto something 📃 ✍️
i can vibe with this.
You’ll like r/tomorrow lol
It's probably going to be the last week of January, after Donkey Kong, one week before the investors meeting.
Jan 8th will inevitably end up being the 1000th wrong predicted date for the reveal. lol
True
Exactly this
when you're wrong 999 times, the 1000th will be true
God I swear all these annoying leakers deserve to be banned from twitter for peddling such bs
Ok genius, when do you think it’ll be revealed then
Predicting the second coming of Jesus is the only date predicted wrong more than switch 2 announcement
Jesus set to reveal the Switch 2 confirmed!
Jesus will ejaculate for the second time the moment he sees the Switch 2.
The second coming of the Switch
I would like to introduce you to a little known game called Silksong
Why do you have to bring religion into the conversation?
Due to CES taking over the tech news during the week of the 6th to 10th, January 8 feels awfully unlikely to me. It's not _impossible_ for an unrelated announcement to catch the headlines (the iPhone in 2007 was a notable exception of taking over headlines during CES despite not being there), but it's a difficult task and probably ill advised.
I had actually completely forgotten about CES- thanks for the reminder, even if it strengthens the anti-January 8 rumors which makes me sad.
What is CES?
@ the Consumer Electronics Show. Big trade show with lots of new technology announcements.
Nintendo is one of the biggest names. A Switch 2 reveal would overpower any tech reveals for several days
I'm calling it. A direct for the switch 1 on Jan 8th and r/switch2 explodes.
This is so much more interesting and meaningful than everyone else's coverage on cringe rumors. Insight based on evidence and trend analysis. But I know it takes a lot more work so thank you!
Thank you!
My guess is the last week of January
NintenTalk has heard that January 23rd is the date of the first reveal or teaser. He heard it from one or more game developers from a major studio, and Nintendo gave them the date in order to time the marketing for their own Switch 2 software. The 23rd is 10 days after Donkey Kong and the only event near it is the inauguration on the 20th.
This is really close to the Trump Admin getting back into the White House. I’m worried there will be too much media chaos for this console to get much coverage outside of the already large (but not all encompassing) gaming news sphere. Hmm. I guess we will see how it plays out. End of January makes a lot of sense.
It's possible, perhaps likely, that they could have multiple possible dates reserved so they can be flexible to the media environment at the time. 23rd could be the earliest of these.
The only reason I can see for Nintendo to rush an announcement in early January is if they wanted to make a strategic move around the possible new tariffs.
Handheld electronics are exempt from tarrifs so that is a non factor or no cell phones would be made or sold with tarrifs coming just an fyi
I think another boon for a january reveal is that the Superbowl is happening in early February. It's not something the Switch 2 is necessarily in dire need of, but if you're gonna have to reveal your console within the next three months anyway, it would be strange not to go for such an opportunity.
January 8th feels too much like wishful thinking, it just so happens to be the very next date feasibly possible. It'd be nice, but we'll see.
Terrible idea, typical American that thinks their country is the center of the world.
Guess what, kid: Super bowl ads are mostly just shown in the US, most international broadcasters show their own ads, and it's your usual boring stuff, nothing like the American ads.
Secondly, Japan doesn't give a damn about American football, and that's Nintendo's second biggest market.
In Nintendo's third biggest market, Europe, the Super Bowl half time show is like at 3 AM.
That's why you don't see a lot of game ads in Super Bowl, because it's a global market, opposed to movies, where half of the revenue comes from the US alone. Thus, for them it makes sense to pay for a Super Bowl add.
I would love to see the data on how much of Nintendo's target audience actually watch the Superbowl. Yes, I understand that ads take on a life of their own, but I just don't think they have a game that justifies the expense. Though I personally have lost faith in them, companies like EA should purchase Superbowl ads. It would also be the perfect opportunity to reveal a GTA6 release date. Of all the gaming channels I follow, I suspect _maybe_ 10% would tune in for an event like the Superbowl.
@@seedofwonder I think no matter what the superbowl remains a guaranteed oppurtunity to have a ton of eyes on your advertising at once. Even if not everyone watching is interested in gaming, at the very least it still spreads brand awareness really well. And I'd be willing to bet that a large portion of the audience would at least know someone in their extended familly who might want a nintendo game for christmas.
@@birdflox1337 It's a massive event, and I think they would in reality get a full return on their investment. As you say, there are so many eyes glued to screens that it would be difficult not to. But I wonder if they understand it that way. Considering the game-specific events they snub, their M.O. seems to be to avoid any context where their content might get lost. So while I think they would, as you say, spread brand awareness, they seem wary of having their brand and marketing strategy get outstaged by, e.g., a cola company that would invest millions just to produce the ad. But I would be happy to be wrong.
@@seedofwonderI dont watch the super bowl but I look for the ads haha
It’s never being revealed.
real
It’s just gonna appear in everybody’s living room
It Will reléase without a reveal, You just walk by the mall and it's there, 599$
@@emanuelmoreno2272 Oh, the Sega Saturn strategy. Just Shadowdrop out of nowhere, it did wonders for Sega.
Another top class analysis!
The best thing they could do is reveal it on January 1st - a kind of: "New Year, New Console" thing.
I think your last video was spot on and the most likely. People are underestimating how much Nintendo wants to bring another 6-12 months of success to the switch and are willing to continue delaying a reveal for a system we probably know everything about anyway, to that end. I think aside from the deadline of their promise to show more information, they will continue to focus on switch 1 to hardcore fans frustration. Also I wouldn’t be surprised if there are features we simple wouldn’t be able to guess from seeing the leaked hardware. Regardless this is not an earth shattering new console concept. So they can push switch 1 and 2 and only se more games.
Its crazy how we will be thinking about this period 7 years from now while waiting for the switch 3 or whatever
Interesting and I'm sure accurate. Not sure if this is coincidence though (they used to have much longer ramp-up times than is now common) or about managing investor expectations around the turn of the financial year. Worth looking into.
People are trying to force Nintendo's hand. However, the company did put themselves in weird spot not having a ND in September. The way they shadow dropped XCX gives the impression that it was the last announcement. I dont believe so. They also have until the end of February.
Switch Pro coming 8th of January lol
I also have been thinking about the Switch 1 direct since you posted that video. I think there is very little chance a presentation on Switch 2 has nothing to say about Switch 1
They'll announce the date for the announcement
I don't know if I've ever seen anyone make this connection between Nintendo Directs and game releases, like seriously from games journalists to pro analysts to regular youtubers I dont think I've seen anyone pick up on this.
A December 31st/January 1st reveal seems more likely to me. Get kids to talk about it during the new year’s celebrations! Make parents very upset cause they just bought them the original switch 😂
I thought we were supposed to see a reveal way earlier this year. I remember they announced a direct while being very clear that they were going to reveal the Switch's successor in it's own thing soon after.
I think the reveal kinda has to be sometime in January in my mind, even if it's not the 8th. February doesn't have a game slated but we're likely gonna get a different kind of direct that month plus the Pokemon Presents, so that would be kinda overload. March is the latest we know they'd reveal it, but that's also the month a lot of rumorers are sticking by as the release (even though I kinda doubt it at this point), plus there's the same issue as Returns HD with Xenoblade X. April-June is when I think the launch will actually be, so revealing it in January and having a 4-6 month hype cycle just makes the most sense to me, even if they probably don't need that long for a stronger Switch.
if there is a switch 2 reveal in early january - US and EU most likely had to prepare translation already before their christmas break. And having a christmas break with the danger of someone is leaking those preparation work information - is not a risk Nintendo will take. So they start their engines on that in the new year. And that will take some days as well to be finished. So early january is unlikely in my opinion.
Nintendo has had to work with many people outside of the company when creating the Switch 2. Just think of the factories that are already making and packing the thing. Why do you think they wouldn't hire translators for a reveal at this time?
Besides, they have already had to translate manuals and text on the packaging, and nothing of that has leaked.
I know it’s not super likely but I’m crossing my fingers for a reveal on my Birthday, January 23rd
This would mean they could advertise DK as supporting one cartridge multiplayer across two-systems with their new Couple feature 😉
I think the supposed reveal for Switch 2 (the 3 minutes ad like Switch) is not gonna happen & they're going directly to make the announcment in Jan (like Jan 2017) with the release late March/April, since there's little to no reason for a reveal.. 2 reasons for cancelling the reveal & going striaght to announcement:
- Switch 2 is just a more powerful hybrid, unlike the Switch which was innovative & very different from the WiiU so it needed to be shown to the public early as it was a new idea.
- Nintendo's approach when it comes to the game announcements to release cycle generally changed since 2019 (after Furukawa became president), meaning they announce a new game & release it a month or 2 later, at worst no more than 6 months from announcement to release (except TotK) & sometimes they release it earlier (Xenoblade 3).
I think your video is well thought out & I can see it happening more likely than my theory (which is wishful thinking from my side), still I think Nintendo releasing Switch 2 beyond Apr is too late. DKCR & XenoX both are ports that will sell on both systems regardless so even if the announcement is in early Jan it'll be fine I think 😁
It's gonna be in January (maybe at the beginning of Febuary) but not necessarily on the 8th.
I can't wait for the switch 2! So we can immediately start guessing when the switch 3 will release.
So we were expecting an announcement in March, September, and now January. People need to stop claiming things that are not true.
first time? :^)
If its backwards compatible it wouldn't deter potential Donkey Kong sales at all. They could even show an improved version on the switch 2
@CommonwealthRealm once released a video (about a year ago) claiming that Nintendo has never had a console officially revealed and released in different fiscal years. I think at the time there was a rumor of a late 23 reveal for a holiday 24 release.
3:25 As a side note, I wish that is true. Nintendo has ignored DK for an exceedingly long time. I do hope they’re really cooking towards a substantial comeback.
They have the theme park expansion and the movie coming out. They definitely see it as an important pillar
Fun fact: if you say "New Nintendo Direct Next Week!" Every day, one day you will eventually be right.
They'll probably unveil it closer to launch. Announcing it too early means a long wait, and some people might forget. So unless it drops in early March, it'll be late January or February (or later depending on when it'll be released).
Can't wait for the next "where was I right" 2025
Consider also that CES is that week, and a bunch of announcements are expected in the handheld gaming space.
Lenovo are going to unveil the Legion Go S. AMD are going to unveil their Zen Extreme 2 chip. And Valve are expected to announce SteamOS, which will revolutionise the industry.
If I were Nintendo, I would be considering timing the Switch 2 announcement to steal as much of that spotlight as possible.
I think what a lot of Nintendo influencer should do is create a video saying that the Switch “2” will be revealed next week. Then release the same video at 5pm local time each Friday. Eventually they will be right. Im looking at you AndresRestart, Nintendo Prime, Sunbro Nation et all. 😅
Great analysis as always. Personally I still can't see the next genral direct being solely switch 1 focused. That is unless the switch 2 "event" you described preceeding it is a stunning event that shows lots of Switch 2 exclusives that will make the system a must buy.
While Nintendo definitely don't want to kill switch 1 sales, or make owners feel like their console is obsolete, they also wouldn't want to muddy the waters. Announcing the switch 2 with not many games, and then during the next anticipated reveal event, revealing no new switch 2 games may leave audiences wondering if the launch lineup will actually be good. They may feel there might not be much incentive to purchase the Switch 2 if there aren't many exclusives for it.
I feel like Nintendo wants people to know out of the gate, the Switch 2 is a must buy system with lots of exclusive games on the way and a few very soon. The definitely want switch 1 owners to still feel supported, but I feel like that will mostly be through ports and smaller titles, not something to kick off the year in a direct with.
The more I reflect on your recent videos, the more compelling I find the logic of an early Switch 1 Direct. If the Switch 2 is going to be backwards compatible, I don't think it would cannibalize game sales as much as people might assume. But until there is actual new hardware available, they would be foolish not to maintain a consistent release schedule of new/remastered software. As you say, not only would it alienate people who just purchased a Switch over the holidays, but it would also be leaving a lot of money on the table.
I also feel a weird tension regarding the reveal and release of the new console. I'm a diehard Xenoblade fan. I logged about 500 hours in Xenoblade Chronicles X on Wii U. It was the sole reason I even bought the console, and I am still pleased with my Wii U purchase. But I have mixed feelings about the timing of the DE because I will want to savor the experience and not just rush through the base game to play the epilogue. In other words, Nintendo have given me an amazing gift, but one that will demand a significant time investment next year. So it's a shame it could not have been moved up to December 2024 (like XC3 moved from September to July). XCX needs more time to breathe than it appears it will get, and I worry how that might impact their support for the series.
I felt the same with 2023 with the successive releases of Engage, Prime, Advance Wars, Zelda and Pikmin but ultimately this falls into a "good problem to have".
They will always want a flow of games and actually XCX releasing at this point probably gives it more elbow room than if it released during a busier period. I think they know that XCX is a substantial enough release to tide them over for 5-6 weeks (they frequently don't put out an April game) and if the May/June games appeal to, probably, a different audience (e.g. a Kirby port, a casual title, Mario Baseball) it could be the biggest game of its type for a few months which is about as good a positioning as you can really wish for what is, ultimately, a port of a niche game. (Having said that, I'm really excited for X. Just starting XC3 and loving it so far.).
@nintendoforecast You are certainly correct that XCX is a niche title. I am so pleased with the level of excitement for the DE, which no doubt has been elevated by the much larger install base and how much the series has grown since 2015. I guess my real fear is that new hardware will drop and the active community will experience a mass exodus, but the Switch is so successful that my concern is probably unjustified. I sincerely hope you continue to enjoy your time with XC3.
This makes sense, dude. I'm very skeptical of anything but minor announcements on the 6th-10th, it's just still too close to the holidays and too early in the year. January is usually a pretty quiet month for most companies, even with Nintendo's out of the box weirdness. The 13th-17th obviously not like you said, due to DKCR HD. The 20th-24th and 27th-31st is wide open though, and if your theory is correct about it releasing in April it would have to be in that 2 week window.
I will say though if we don't get anything by the end of January I don't think we're gonna get this thing until at least June. Because if they don't say anything before their investor's call I don't see them saying anything until the very last second in March and by that point they won't make a Q2 maybe even release. There are a few interesting routes this can take and I'm truly wondering how long Nintendo can make it's fanbase suffer before they'll finally cave because now we're just getting shit leaked, which is why I'm thinking that maybe this system will release sooner rather than later.
I’ve said it from the beginning. You cannot reveal a console while marketing g a game. It completely invalidates that money you spent. It would either have to be right at the start of January, or a week after dkcrhd
Imo a week after DKCRHD to a week before pokemon presents is the key spot so Jan 27-31st or Feb 10th-21st. I also think the investor briefing is a spot to look at not just obv for what it is, but because they've given Switch Successor news at every meeting (that's had a Q/A) so far. I wouldn't be surprised if the announcement tweet people are waiting for is something that is tweeted after the investor briefing. Also could be before investor meeting similar to how Alarmo was. This would also allow them to get it out before the Superbowl if that really does matter. February is looking empty rn so if there is a game i assume it releases in that time between the briefing and pokemon presents so that would put the reveal Jan 27th-31st. I could see them reveal so investors could ask questions then announce a Switch Direct right after which shadow drops a Feb game, possibly Metroid prime 2-3.
First time I'm hearing of the 8th of january rumours, but yeah, I definitely agree with that being an overly optimistic prediction. I do kinda feel like it's likely enough for it to be revealed before early february, what with the next financial report being around that time. So I'm inclined to agree with the late january prediction, even if I do kind of want them to just, get it over with by now.
I am wondering whether the switch 2 is going to have back wards compability or not. Is this confirmed yet ?
Yes it will!
I feel like we have to get someone kind of announcement in January like a trailer or something and then in February have a nintendo direct for its games
At this point, I'm betting that the Switch 2 will be announced in March
Will I be able to keep all my games if I get the new one?
Yeah :)
Yup, they've confirmed the Switch 2 will be fully backwards compatible, and the Nintendo Switch Online service and classic-console channels are coming.
This might be unpopular, but I think Nintendo will release the next generation console in the fall.
Generally speaking, nobody gets poor betting on Nintendo taking longer than most people expect so you might be onto something!
GTA6 is the most anticipated video game ever. Something I'm interested in is the effect GTA6 will have on Nintendo in three areas. Firstly, the release date. GTA6 is likely to release this fall. Would Nintendo shift its games to release outside, say, a three week margin of GTA6's release? Secondly, would Nintendo stand to lose much if GTA6 doesn't come to Switch 2? GTA6 is a system seller on its own and could greatly boost PS5 and XSX sales. Thirdly, what could Nintendo stand to gain. Would the people who would've otherwise bought the aforementioned consoles instead realize they could also play the game on the go and buy a Switch 2 instead?
January 8th is very soon after the holiday season. You’ll have a lot of unhappy customers who just bought their kids a switch for Christmas. My prediction is the start of March for a reveal, with a release in November (only half joking but I think a release for Holiday 25 is not unlikely)
Forecaster-kun might have touched on it, but this coming year is the Mario series's 40th anniversary.
Hopefully Super Mario Galaxy 2 will go on sale this year for the Switch and Switch 2 to succeed the Super Mario 3D All-Stars collection.
I have another video on the 40th. Not sure about SMG2 although I'd love it.
@nintendoforecast Awesome!
Now, I’m not one to fall into the rumormill, but I could see the January 8th predictions being right only in a specific set of circumstances. Namely, if it’s a 3 minute trailer and only if Nintendo does it to surprise and delight us, as they usually aim to do with their announcements.
Otherwise, I’m always one to remain skeptical, even if the whole of the community speculates and is INCREDIBLY positive a thing will happen on one specific date.
…Also slightly schadenfreude. It would be very funny for people to put all their eggs in the January 8th basket only for those eggs to get stomped on by Mario yet again.
Basically its not impossible that it'll happen soon but dont be surprised if it doesnt
As we all know Nintendo is the king of left field, so you just cant predict nintendo.
I feel like this is what's going to happen, Nintendo is going to give us a codename for the next console by March or April 2025 to say yes a Switch successor is on the way but it'll come out in 2026, I'd say 2026 is more likely because of how Nintendo is going to want to piggyback off their success of what 2023 did.
2023 saw the release of the Super Mario Bros. movie from Illumination and Universal and how that film surpassed the first Frozen movie as the #1 animated movie of all time, June 2023, Nintendo announced Super Mario Bros. Wonder and that was the fastest selling Mario game because of the Super Mario Bros. movie according to Furukawa.
now the Super Mario Bros. movie 2 might surpass Frozen II at the box office and if Nintendo sees that, that's when the next console will get announced and they might launch it with a 3D Mario game to make sure that the successor has a great launch for that year.
The reason I think 2025 is unlikely as these leakers are saying is because it could a repeat of the Wii U's launch and I'm sure Nintendo has learned from the Wii U and wants to make sure that the Switch successor has a strong launch and sells well with that 3D Mario game plus F-Zero and Splatoon 4 at launch.
Um.... "not rushing out an announcement"??? We should already have the switch 2 released already, we should have gotten the reveal like literally a year ago, that's the exact opposite of rushed
It's off-topic on the video, but I've been thinking about Smash Bros Ultimate, and how much it raised the bar.
I wonder if it would be smarter to launch an "SBU Deluxe + something extra content" (all fighters, maybe updated graphics, and an extra big feature like Bowser's Fury was to 3DWorld)
Then, do the Mario Kart Deluxe strategy and release a new Fighter pass.
11:29 fin.
I tried prime drop did not work out well, everybody knows this.
I cant wait
Switch 3 release 2030
It really annoys me that Nintendo won’t just show the damn thing already. It’s been leaked by countless people; just fucking announce it already.
Hey that’s my Birthday I hope this happens 😁😁
I love you
Switch 2 will be shadow dropped
January 8th is literally impossible because japan is holiday
No it is not
I do feel like the reveal has to be in January- that way Nintendo can get an ad in the Super Bowl like they did with the original Switch.
I still believe in January because I don’t want to imagine how much later we’ll be getting switch 2 lol
Me too, just not 8th.
is it just me or has his voice felt a little off in recent vids..
Off how? Not sure why but I did record many recent videos (and the next few) in a batch before my Christmas break. My voice was still recovering from a cold. This last one was recorded in a different location.
I was convinced before but today I woke up with a weird feeling that it is not gonna be January, I don't know what it is but I sense it's February, I can see a short commercial in January at most but not the whole detailed presentation.
The comprehension of the TikTok generation really baffles me. Nintendo Pres already mentioned the details in as few words as possible. Hohoho.
Im Gen Z and I have never used TikTok. People have always been stupid and its not a new thing like you pretend.
Why do you sound offended if you dont use TikTok?
Maybe you should stop pretending.
And just take your happy pills and chill. LOL
You're way overthinking this over an almost 15 year old port.
Blah blah blah until nintendo anonce it how i saying new day new rumor 😂
New president, new rules....
Good lord, can we just have some hope?
I predict: Announcement in March for 2026.
They’re not gonna announce it until March. And if that’s the case there’s no way this thing is coming out in the first half of the year. Holiday 2025 is the absolute soonest we should expect it
There is still a chance of it releasing earlier in the year. I'm pretty sure there was a leak that they've already got consoles being sent to warehouses. If this has actually been happening for the past few months then I can see the possibility of it releasing sometime in Spring. These are rumours so you could be right, but I doubt they're going to wait that long for an announcement as they have surely seen the countless amount of leaks happening and they would hopefully realise that it could get worse. All we can really do is wait 🤞🤞🤞.
Nah, it’s already started mass manufacturing. Latest is June
@ I just have a feeling they’re gonna drag this out as long as possible
@AidensHorrorHouse the info we have on the Switch 2's manufacturing and stockpiling isn't a rumor, that's pretty set in stone now. whether or not nintendo is fine with a couple of months worth of advertising is the question.
@@xAfroMetalHead1990x Its gonna be announced before April. Thinking it'll come out 9 months after being announced is.... not even a hot take, its just straight up not happening.
Man, your content is just total trash.
The Switch 2 probably won't be revealed January 8th because there's not enough smoke and just because any specific date is unlikely, but DKCRHD is an extremely low budget remake outsourced to a shovelware dev. They do not care about this title and using that as your evidence sucks.
It was already revealed. We just haven't realized it yet.
Only reason switch 2 should release in 2025 is if theres some good 3rd party titles in the first 3 months otherwise they should push it more towards 2026 or 2027 The games need to take advantage of the hardware imo
Switch 2 is going to be announced in a general direct in febuary. It'll be the opener say it's backwards compatible and then go on to show games on switch 1 with zero switch 2 exclusives and an announcement of another direct in the future which will focus on the successor which is launching after the summer. The next direct the same month will be a Pokemon presents showing ZA and a tease at multiplat next gen which will be on switch and switch 2 with some bonuses on switch 2 mostly better processing.