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A Fireside Chat with Renowned Pandemic Expert Michael Osterholm
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 ก.ย. 2022
- COVID-19 Grand Rounds for the 2022-23 academic year begins with a fireside chat with Professor Michael Osterholm, one of the world’s leading experts on COVID and pandemics more generally. Among other things, we discuss the current state of the pandemic, the new boosters, the “one shot a year” strategy, masking, Paxlovid rebound, long COVID, and how COVID has influenced our pandemic preparedness.
Speaker:
Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. In 2020-21, Dr. Osterholm served on President-elect Biden's COVID-19 Transition Advisory Board.
Note: Closed captions will be available within 48-72 hours after posting.
Program
Bob Wachter: Introduction
00:02:44-00:59:17 - Conversation with Michael Osterholm, MD, MPH (University of Minnesota)
See previous Medical Grand Rounds:
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June 16: The Science Behind Real-World Data: Answering Today’s Questions Today
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• June 9: Liver Transplantation: Where Are We Now and Where Are We Going?
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See all UCSF Covid-19 grand rounds, which have been viewed over 3M times, here: medicine.ucsf....
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Thank you to Dr. Osterholm for his leadership and steadfast commitment to our health and thank you to Dr. Wachter for making the UCSF MGRs available to the public.
UCSF is now a joke. A woke joke.
This is a great discussion. I really appreciate it. I only wish more people still cared enough to understand the science and risks associated with Covid.
I care and have from Jan, 2020...humility was key and we had little of that ...
Unfortunately, Michael Osterholm doesn't understand science.
@@Lp78Ch why do you say that?
@@TheMoody138 Osterholm has been the mouthpiece of Democratic propaganda from the far left. He has completely ignored early treatment and threw the Great Barrington Declaration under the bus, per Francis Collins. He's really a politician. NOT a scientist.
@@Lp78Ch and you do. riiiight.
Two of my favorite ‘talking heads’ for the recent years on the topic of infectious diseases, discussing together. Wonderful! Keep up the good work and glad to see UCSF Grand Rounds again.
Absolutely amazing. This is one of the best talks I've ever seen. Mike is the absolute best and Bob is pretty darn good. Loved this. Thank you for this. I listen to Mike's podcast, but it does tend to be a lot of Mike reading what he wrote....I much prefer his live/real conversation with somebody else...especially somebody as well educated about this at Bob. Thank you again.
If you don't understand how non-medical people respond to risk and contracting illness/developing disability, you cannot possibly address pandemics. The loss of confidence in public health, combined with social media's effects, require a different response in the future. I have been unable to successfully communicate risk and response to friends and family, even with my training and ability to maintain my health and sanity during this disaster. It is bigger than any individual provider's response.
Heads of state messed this up, public health gets the blame.
@@minRef yes both are to blame. Need to talk about risk stratification. Look at polio. What is the risk of illness?. Death? To whom? What age groups? Comorbidities? Nope. Let’s treat everyone (even doctors) like idiots that can’t think. Everyone gets a vaccine. Daily.
The govt. Medical professionals staff,,messed this up. I watched early on before December 2019 the problems in China. I seen on utube. The massive quarantine makeshift Hospital. They dug in, to have the modular system built. What did USA do???
Absolutely Nothing. They should have immediately limited flights, & put out PUBLIC HEALTH ANNOUNCEMENTS. Its disgraceful, ridiculous absurd that USA having diagnoses tools available. And NO PLANS TO TAKE ACTION. Nurses forced to reuse PPE. Wearing contaminated masks. Doctors & Nurses DIED. CDC forced ppl/workers Med. Staff to work while ill.
Further spreading it. Agriculture & food Processing workers forced to work sick. Those PPL. Are Ridiculous & whats worse who behind IT.
F* them all to Hell. Plenty of time to prepare a suitable plan. But Nothing.
Our precious Helpless Elderly, who living full lives are treated as prisoners. The nonprofit INSTITUTIONS were better prepared/equipped with PPE, and supplies. Yet the for profit were unbelievable ridiculous. Once again.
F* them all for their greedy behavior $$$$. Whats gonna stop them from it happening again.
@@minRef Bravo to the "s" in "Heads of state messed this up!"
The US is barely governable because there's 2 highly partisan groups and one of those groups in particular will just do the opposite to cause problems. You need to fix that first which can't happen until the Dear Leader of one of those political party is dead. You then have to hope the next leader isn't a dear leader.
I got the flu 10/12/2013 and chose to get the flu shot in early September ever since. I had a breakthrough of mild flu symptoms in Feb 2019 (vaccinated Sept 2018), but that was easy to tolerate. The full-on flu I got when I was unvaccinated in Oct 2013 is not something I ever want to repeat.
It would help to hear about the experience you had & how you recovered - sorry to hear about your nightmare.
Did Dr.O mention one expert got a flu shot in September and another one in January? Should we try this too? I wish there is some expert discussion of a flu shot and a booster in the same season
@@cchang2771 just get a Flu shot right before the winter
Same here, Flu was the worst disease i've ever had, worse than dengue, worse than scarlet fever, worse than those episodes of sinusitis that sends most people to the hospital and thousands of times worse than covid
Public health recommendations for individuals should be the best medical recommendations possible, not a watered-down end product of a negotiation with government and the public. People can choose to follow the advice or not, but the advice should be reliable and truthful, not just what the public health agency thinks people want to hear.
If I were to agree wholeheartedly, then there should be a US Constitutional Amendment to create a 4th branch of Federal Government. Why should a non-scientist shlub like me believe that an "agency employee" holds a super-human ability to discern truth?
"is this going to get a lot worse or will it get better?" Uh, both. Duh. Sometimes people just don't think. Great discussion. A LOT of people need to listen to this! Thanks!
I really appreciated this discussion by these two fine gentlemen, both of whom I greatly respect.
Dumb and Dumber
Wish that many more Americans would appreciate Dr. Osterholm's views of pandemic management.
No doubt he is the best. For many reasons.
VOMIT
@@Lp78Ch delete your account
thank you, thank you -- one of the clear indications of a subject matter expert -- "I don't know!"
Osterholm has as much knowledge as a ripped notebook found at the bottom of a locker.
If you create all of the viruses, you can make pretty accurate proclamations. Wake up people.
Great conversation. Especially the last part about humility. Knowing that it could get worse is also useful . Experts saying that they really don't know, the answer is between 1 -10 is incredibly useful.
How about some basic good health practices and utilizing the known early treatments?
Thanks for a good discussion. I’m a faithful listener of Dr O on his podcast. Thanks!!!
No wonder. You have been thoroughly brainwashed by propaganda.
Five shots seems a lot for a healthy guy. The previous four dont protect against long covid? Doesnt the risk of side effects increase with each additional shot?
We know of nothing that protects you from long COVID at this point. NOTHING except minimizing exposure to infection. Nor protection from any other post-viral syndrome that we see all year, every year. They show up in our ICUs because one of them can paralyze your breathing. The risk of Long COVID exists with each infection, just like spinning the barrel in a game of Russian Roulette. This is what he is trying to minimize. He knows very well he can, and almost certainly will, contract COVID eventually. Everyone will at some point in their lifetime.
@@Cathy-xi8cb do you happen to know whether the increase in number of boosters increases the risk of side effects or whether there is the increase risk of so called Vaids (vaccine induced aids) ? Whats the long covid incidence rate with omicron? I am not sure i am following your third and fourth sentences. Are you saying long covid will turn into a post viral syndrome that causes paralysis?
@@bethchacon4924 Of course ANY treatment has risks. Any infection does as well. Some are grim. You have to understand what the percentages are for you specifically for each action/choice. There are many post-viral syndromes. One of them, not long COVID, creates paralysis. There is no way to know if you will develop it, it can kill you but usually we can limit residual permanent paralysis to a significant degree, and it can happen after something minimal like a mild cold. Your immune system goes "wacky". Sound familiar? Osterholm is trying to improve his odds by reducing infection frequency, but he knows he will get infected with COVID at least once before he dies, because he took statistics in medical school. He had to.
@@bethchacon4924 You are probably asking the wrong expert. Many conflicts with this one.
@@debbiejaynes2652 its annoying that US Colleges and Universities are pressuring kids to get the boosters and they're still getting very sick despite this. And the young males are subjecting themselves to increased myocarditis risks from additional shots, as CDC studies have shown. No one is quoting these statistics, except maybe the unnamed figureheads that were alluded to in the fireside chat that apparently are providing all the misinformation to the media.
Everything we were told to do by the authorities and by the "experts" was exactly opposite of what should have actually happened. We were told to do exactly the wrong thing to keep us safe. We were lied to about everything, and those of us who took notice of the inconsistencies in the official narrative were treated as heartless monsters and as actual hazards to public health. Meanwhile, our doctors were telling people who were sick with covid to go home and wait until they were dying before coming back; they were sent home with nothing--no advice, no medicines to treat their illness. People did as they were told, for all those reasons and more, people obeyed their authorities, people listened to the experts, and in doing so lost their lives. The experts and authoriries and even doctors, are directly responsible for the deaths of untold thousands. There MUST be accountability for this. If there is not, it should be taken as a strong indication that we are not free people, that we are in fact slaves to those we foolishly places in seats of power..
You could not be more wrong, and its painful how how tunnel visioned and just forgetful people can be. Just step back and really think about what transpired over the last 2.5 years, and reflect on how immensely unbelievable your comments are. You were lied to about NOTHING. Lets get some things straight. Changes to best guidance and recommendations are not malicious "inconsistencies" as you call them, its called adapting to a dynamic pandemic landscape that changed literally by the hour with extremely imperfect information. You are talking about a public health situation that has never occurred in most of our lifetimes before. China is still in lock-down mode for many part of their country!
Now think about what ACTUALLY occurred, not some monday-morning quarterback from a laptop. Within about half a year, we were well on our way approving brand new modalities of vaccine administration. Do you really believe experts, doctors, and scientists are infallible? This was an IMPOSSIBLE situation. There was no best decision, only least worst decisions. Critical care unit beds were filled. Emergency rooms impassable. I worked as an EMT/First responder during the first 6 months of the pandemic and every other patient we transported had covid symptoms and ultimately ended up on a ventilator, if they were lucky enough to get one. The CDC, FDA, NIH, countless public research and academic institutions, and private companies worked together to deliver effective, YES you heard it, very effective vaccines that actually prevented deaths. Yes, herd immunity never really occurred, vaccines were not effective preventing transmission, and the virus adapted and changed so fast that certain vaccines were not as effective against certain variants. No vaccine ever created was even close to 100% perfect, and your expectation that somehow its a failure because they weren't is laughable. But to argue that the failures of the system were do to some form baseline corruption and lies...well I dont know how else to describe this perspective except as immensely uninformed and shortsighted. Have we become so timid, lazy, and reliant on the perceived omniscience and infallibility of our elected leaders and medical professionals that we can just sit back on our lazy butts and point blame at others for not knowing the impossible? That's on you.
You were branded heartless monster not because you pointed out inconsistencies, OF COURSE THERE WERE INCONSISTENCIES. IT WAS A PANDEMIC! Its that people with your view couldn't understand the immense scope and complexity of the situation. You couldn't accept that this situation was bad, there was no silver lining, that people were going to die either way, and that all you were asked to do by your fellow countryman/women was social distance for a while, wear a fucking mask, get a safe vaccine and 2 years later be relatively back to normal? Holy shit, no sympathy here.
@@TheZebulonPike What a wonderful reply - words I have always wanted to say but could not find. Thank you!
Deep sanity yes thank you for the truth of things…
“I don’t think this is the big one.” What an incredibly frightening statement. It’s really, really difficult for me to fight off depression over this whole mess. My anxiety level is very high.
Take heart. Human beings have faced worse things in the past. We are a species that meets challenges until we solve the problems. Plus many good people are working hard to find ways of subduing this. Human beings will find a way. In the meanwhile, do the good that you can. You are stronger than you realize.
I think if you protect yourself with masking and staying out of public places you'll feel a lot better. It's just going to be for a longer time. Good luck.
Just enjoy out door walks/exercise/visits . . . and wear an N-95plus inside. If numbers are up I’d avoid large crowds, no matter masking.
Keep healthy and happy, avoid the news. Find a couple reliable youtube ? covid authorities, and listen with an open But Critical mind!
Your mind is your best friend - if sleep/eat well! : )
I am ‘highrisk’ but not worried, just careful. Am 63yrs and lucky not to have to sign-in to work.
(NOT vaxxed, never will be - “immune evasion” expression is ridiculous to my ears… not vaxxing “in hope” it works/causes no harm)
Many of the sufferings in COVID-19 pandemic are self inflicted.
I learn so much from these videos, but the outstanding takeaway from this particular video is that these are two of the nicest people you could ever hope to meet. How lucky are we that they're working for the public good!
I truefully don't know anybody who has died from coronavirus However my father was the fittest healthy 80 year old who had regular health checks always perfect health then one jab and died So shut up Scott UK
The administration: “We’ve tried nothing and we’re all out of ideas.”
With all precautions in the world, N95 or better always, 3 doses, not stepping into a bar or restaurant, washing hands all the time, I got covid three weeks ago for the first time here in Spain (48 y.o, high fever and sore throat). Now until a new variant arrives, I have just surrendered to covid. I am just maintaining exposure and hopefully antibodies. This is really frustrating.
I feel for you. Too many people have it and get re-infected and don't care if they spread it, which makes it hard to protect oneself. Very frustrating indeed. The numbers have to go down but I can't see that happening any time soon.
Any idea at all where you might have contracted the virus?
@@BlakeSuperior_Beats It had to be either public transport or work, but I wore N95 all the time in both places.
@@pedrosmith221 - you would have contracted COVID-19 much sooner if you hadn’t been so proactive. And likely would have become a long hauler.
@@Patrick_Ross Sure. I trust science and vaccines, I know things could have been way worse. I will get the new multivariant booster too.
Agree. Too much politics in the discussions about science. Just let the professionals have open discussions about their thoughts !
46:11 Says the guy who makes $1M a year as the chair of medicine at UCSF and could easily do the study there himself! It's not a very hard study to do.
Nirmatrelvir (the antiviral in paxlovid) has some prepandemic data for feline coronavirus/FIPV. Pretty interesting.
⚕💰💵💲💲⚕
Thank you for sharing the Grand Rounds. I personally don't encounter the public w/o my N95 and don't participate in indoor dining either. So that is my frame of reference.
As a historian, the observation of the 1918 pandemic is the gold standard of human reaction to pandemic conditions. Surely we now have faster information dissemination through electronic media and a more polarized political environment. However, the people, their behavior, and the range of responses has not changed. Public Health officials yelled Fire, the public responded, and then gradually stopped caring. It will happen again and it has happened again. This was entirely predictable. Individuals en masse, the public rejected the tyranny of public health.
Societal nature mirrors personal interaction. If in your work, someone says, I defer to your judgement: it could mean that you are the expert being called upon, but it also means that you are being setup for failure. In order to preserve your power to effect future outcomes, the next comment should be: we need to get all the parties involved to reach a shared consensus, meaning that we all share in the responsibility of positive and negative outcomes. Unlike science, determination on what is and how to achieve the maximum public good is an art.
Trust in public health. Some were caused by mistakes, underfunding, and political lies. By making so much of this political a lot of lives were lost.
Oh well I (65yo)have both shots now COVID(5 shots- the last one Bivalent ) and flu. What do I do in January?
I have heard medical experts say if you had the flu shot early, depending on how the flu unfolds, it is possible to get a second flu shot when your doctor advises it.
Oh dear gawd
You’re asking these guys what you should do about your health? God help you.
@@notnow7973 Bloody brilliant!!!!!!
I'm just getting over COVID. I can now go to a restaurant. Yippie. However, I do worry about the long-term effects I will have. Guess I will find out.
That man sounds like a scary cat of an invisible enemy
My dad (age 93) and I (age 66) just got our first cases of Covid, fortunately very mild. We had our last boosters in April. Per our doctor's advice, I scheduled boosters for early November. I was starting to think....is this really necessary?......but after listening to this discussion, we will definitely get that fifth shot.
So, you truly want more spike protein introduced into your cells?
Start planning your estate NOW.
OK boomer
We are now 5 months past our boosters and feeling fine
@@Lp78ChStill alive and kicking!
🙂
Is your esteemed guest as qualified a professional doctor as Bill Gates
Bill Nye 😂
Wonderful . Dr Osterholm is such a wonderful model for the best approach that a physician can take with uncertainty. At least - be humble. Thank you for this wonderful session
Omicron has its spikes rigidly bind to ACE2 receptors without the need to change the shape of the spikes because Omicron enters cells via clarthrin-mediated endocytosis. Nucleocapsid differences can be used to identified different variants, e.g , Omicron against ancestral variants. Nucleocapsid protein (NP) is critical for the formation and release of virions. One interesting finding is that NP can enter the nucleus of Vero cells (kidney cells) and lung cells; the cell nuclear is the site where NP is processed correctly by caspases to performs its functions. However, the study showed NP cannot enter the nucleus and can only stay in the cytoplasm of the Caco2 cells (intestinal cells) and N2a cells (neuronal cells). Therefore, sar-cov2 ( including Omicron) can cause transient infection in the lungs and kidneys but PERSISTENT infection in the intestines and neurons. Omicron can survive inside neurons by utilizing lactate to manufacture viral proteins via reversed Krebs cycle; tiredness and brain fog are the results of cellular energy being stolen by the virus. NPs hang around in the cytoplasm can cause misfolding of host's proteins which would become prions. NPs disrupt the rhythmic productions of neuronal proteins that regulate circadian bioclock and thus cause sleeping problems. NP toxicity causes neuronal cells senescence, cell death and subsequently the developments of Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, MS, etc. Sar-cov2 hijacks immature macrophages, stops the maturation of macrophages, and impedes immune reponses against the infection.
Thank you
100%!! I'm hiding under the table and won't go our until it's safer.
I assume your being sarcastic
What about antiviral now and in the future .
Antivirals Paxlovid Remdesivir and Bebtelovimab are being under-utilised and 10 day courses of Molnupiravir in the elderly based on Covid 19 viral presence for 10 days is worth trialling .
Malinfo. Deadly diseases don't spread, because they are deadly.
Michael Osterholm is always measured and insightful in his perspective on COVID.
I respect these gentlemen, but what paranoid chickens.
@ 33:03- Whoaa, a public health prof gets death threats & needs security because he tried to warn people during a pandemic about threats to their health (that some didn’t want to hear)?! What’s next- threaten your parents for disciplining you? Killing your teacher for telling you to study? Murdering your dr for advising you to stop smoking and or recommending you lose weight?!
Yes indeed. Perhaps you missed the story this year of the guy who murdered his pain doctor, or the Menendez boys? Or the school/university shootings of teachers?
People who didn’t run with the herd via vaccines lost careers families where arrested jailed refused medical treatment’s yet even this medical “expert”speaks of medical professionals with “long cov” who are mandated to be vaccinated how’d any of Cov procedures vaccines help those Doctors? Death by a thousand cuts!!
@@Cathy-xi8cb You clearly don't know what's _really_ going on. Time to wake up to the truth. These "experts" are feeding you lies.
I would say he is notorious.
Fantastic interview with grounded, sound thought processes. Appreciate it!
As regards Ventilated outdoors is safer but the weather can be dangerous but open windows with screens air purifier machines and carbon dioxide monitors are in use but spacing is still needed and trials .
Some say bring blankets .
Is long Covid an effect of (1) delay and treatment of diagnosis of other illness - because you had Covid (2) psychological effects of fear and stress over prolonged time; amongst other issues and considerations.
I GOT MY 5TH SHOT..IM READY FOR MY 6TH SHOT
bot?
Dummy.
Hi dr. Should I get my healthy 11 year old vaccinated. He has had Covid and sailed through like nearly all kids.
Don't you have a pediatrician to whom you can direct your question? A provider that knows you and your child?
@@Cathy-xi8cb I’m a physician. Wanting to see his answer. At this point one recommendation is indefensible. Physicians need to wake up
@@patrickhaarhues2870 Hope you can continue to use your professional expertise to push against those who maintain these indefensible positions.
@@patrickhaarhues2870 You must not be an MD; no licensed MD would use this platform to bait another provider, or avoid using medical terminology in a sincere question.
@@Cathy-xi8cb I am an md look me up. I think giving this particular vaccine to a kid is medical malpractice. The data has been out for a long time. Enough is enough. If this doctor recommends this shot to a young healthy kid he does not know the data.
Michael Osterholm has a great podcast that's worth listening to. Check it out!
One word. Fearmongering.
One word. I d i o t.
@@LoveABun You must eat lots of earthworms and crickets for breakfast. You need a thorough cleansing of your entire body. What a mess you are. Your brain is hopeless.
I’d say a bit of both. Best to not sensationalize, but to listen - very critically, take care of your daily habits in pandemic times.
Educate from MANY sources, including these well fed varieties.
@@eugeniebreida1583 If you think we are living in a pandemic for the past two years. you need help.
Or truth.
Great that it is only long covid causing on going problems, the vaccines are safe and initially effective and those weird people reporting vaccine injuries are just weird because vaccine injuries don't exist or else there would have been serious discussion about vaccine injuries.
🦾OK 🤖BOOMER 🤖LOL🦿
Criminals.
You conspiracy theorists are repulsive.
@@Patrick_Ross guessing you got a bunch of stuff injected into your body. lol.
@@Patrick_Ross No, YOU are living in a conspiracy.
@@Lp78Ch 😂so sad
@@Patrick_Ross Pathetic!!
The pandemic is not over. This winter will be sad.
You guys are still living in fear and that's a personal choice.
''Fear" is not a choice - it is an emotional reaction to the possibility of self-annihilation, like when doctors tell you they have to cut off your leg, as my mother went through (diabetic)
@@TAROTAI the day I stopped believing the covid narrative I lost the fear and felt total liberation.
That was a conscious choice.
😎