Keep it mind that Nexon was fined over $8 million for secretly lowering the probabilities of loot boxes in one of their games, in some cases to near zero. They did this for over a Decade.
I'm aware. If I read it right, the one item was actually impossible to get. To be fair though, I have not seen any evidence of anything similar in TFD. I honestly think that it's just poor game design at this point. With such a large playerbase, having unmitigated (meaning that there's essentially nothing in place to stop bad luck streaks) sub 10% drop chance is like sentencing a whole lot of people to fun-shattering bad luck. Check the numbers in the pinned comment for some context.
@@DelphieNEhuntah9 million (the actual amount) is Pennies. They got fined the equivalent of 9 million USD for something they fudged for nearly a decade… they didn’t lose money nor did they learn a lesson, this is no different than recalls or settlements corporations have to deal with… they made their money, the pennies they have to pay in fines is nothing.
I mean $8 million...... Are ppl that dense that they think a corporation is willing to make the same $8 million mistake again?? That's why they've been very transparent with this game
@@christopherjackson9741 Corporations do not look at it that way. Over a decade how many hundreds of millions of dollars did they earn? It was very profitable. 8 million dollars was not a big impact. Breaking down the cost versus risk. The reward was worth far more than the fine. This happens everywhere around the world. Vehicle recalls for instance. When a known problem crops up. They go over the numbers to see what the chances are and the risks. People have died to this math from choosing not to do a massive recall. We might think 8 million is a lot of money and it is. But compared to over 600 million dollars. You can live with losing 8 million dollars. The legal requirement that they got in trouble for was hiding the fact that they reduced the chances with out informing the user base.
I currently have 240 hours in the game, I love the game, but if anything is going to drive me away, its drop rates. It doesn't matter what the math is, if its not fun, I don't like it. The drop rates are not fun. Way too many items have low drop rates, and Ive spent most of my time trying to get a FEW patterns to drop what I want, when I should be doing the actual fun content like fighting the new boss and farming him. But instead Im doing infil missions and void shard missions for 100 hours only to get nothing I need. "Nothing" is an exaggeration, but I do think its fair to say. The drop rates are causing this frustration.
I agree 100%. I'm at 271 hours now, and being unable to make more builds just because I can't get energy activators at a steady rate is really hurting the fun factor for me
1000% same. And I came from WoW, Borderlands, Destiny etc. I feel like I did my time. I was younger and did that “grind”. I’m older now, I’ve been down this road before, gimmie the damn thing now or else I quit and play other games. There is a surplus of games trying to get me to play. IF Nexon wants to drop me a 50th Albion Calvary nano tube and I can’t unlock & play as Ult Valby ….. ok. Bye. Deleted from my hard drive. I will go play other games.
I feel your pain. I'm a gley main and wanted to try the new Greg's build. I'm currently on run 50 of swamp walker for Mental Focus since it ammo type specific and doesn't carry over. Im also on over 100+ Pyro runs to get the new Arche Compensator mod for Luna. So fun haha.
I think to make it fun, the devs need to improve other descendant, so they can grind better. If you have bunny, you will always use it for majority of the grind. And they need to make some mission have better spawn rate and location.
The thing about the drop rates and why they feel so bad is more about the presentation of the drop rate opportunity than the actual drop rate. We get ONE chance in how ever long it takes to get the AMP we want and then its RNGesus on which item we get from the AMP. Rinse and repeat. TFD is a looter-shooter, not a horde-looter-shooter. There are no hordes to blow our way through where numerous opportunities within the horde have a 6% chance to drop a wanted item. Big difference.
"MapleStory and Bubble Fighter (2010-2021): Nexon changed the drop rates for premium items without informing players, leading to a significant fine of approximately $8.85 million by the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) in 2024 (pcgamer). Sudden Attack 2 (2018): Nexon was fined approximately $875,000 for misleading players about loot box drop rates (pcgamer)."
I feel that since they’ve been caught twice there even better at hiding there malicious content. The fine they received was not that high compared to the money they made from deceiving the community. Please let me know your thoughts 💭
We're gonna be getting to the bottom of it with TFD on the experiment I just dropped here on YT, you should come join and help figure it out! th-cam.com/video/dZ1ovT6psVg/w-d-xo.html
Honestly, it shouldn't. I think there could be something odd going on. This is why I just dropped the community experiment here on YT. You should come and join in and help us figure out what it is that Nexon is doing: th-cam.com/video/dZ1ovT6psVg/w-d-xo.html
For the majority of the players, this isn’t their first Looter shooter. And I and others are complaining because we know what a 25% drop rate should feel like. This game is NOT performing like it should. And since Nexon has many patents on selective drop rates with a poor history of abuse, I’m leaning to the side that there is some artificial manipulation of the numbers happening.
I hear you. I'm super annoyed at being on attempt 30+ trying to get a 6% chance item. But the math doesn't lie... could there be some funny business going on? Sure, but in my honest opinion, I think it'd be substantially more noticeable
@@MrLukium For example, last night i farmed 3 out of the 4 pieces needed to unlock a decedent. I got those pieces actually way easier than I expected. Until I got to the last piece needed. What was supposed to be the easiest piece at a 38% drop. After 25 tries, I still don’t have it!!!! If this happened to me only this once maybe even twice, sure you can say it’s in the numbers. This happens constantly in this game, that to me isn’t in the numbers. Maybe I’m just the most unlucky person in the world. Idk
@@cbirdman confirmation bias. I got 3 Ult Gley codes while farming for Luna's 38% drop from Amorphous 68. While yes in that instance it looks like I'm extremely unlucky (or lucky), my overall odds throughout the entire game on everything I've done is probably very close to what the shown drop rates are. It took me 37 tries to get a 10% drop for Ultimate Viessa but I got 5-6 Energy Activators during the process. The entire process of getting Ult Viessa was around 20-30 hours of total playtime. Supposedly Ult Viessa is one of the easiest Ultimates to get at least compared to Ultimate Gley. It took me 5-6 hours to get all 4 parts for Ultimate Gley.
@@Cert1f1edM1dget I understand all that, but that is not normal. The game is set up in a way to do that on purpose. One has to be very naive to believe there is no funny business happening especially given the devs track record. Not sure many understand the mind games and to what extent these games have been designed to make you want to spend money.
In addition to my other comments. Nexon has said the global drop rates are in line, which I don’t doubt is true. However, this doesn’t mean that they aren’t manipulating those numbers at the player experience level. For example, they can give 50% of players a 1% drop rate for a specific item and the other 50% a 51% drop rate for the same item. This would have a mean of 25% globally, so they wouldn’t be technically misleading players but adding to the lengthening the grind. This is very simplistic and in reality would be much more granular, driven by an algorithm. This would explain experiences of people getting very lucky and also very unlucky at the same time. So if you poll of a large number of people, the drop rates would likely fall into line globally. You would need see if there is a significant grouping of people within that poll experiencing both good and bad luck with certain items. In addition, it has been found that Nexon owns patents for Dynamic RNG that do this exact thing and pushing people to spend money. The question is, does the community feel this is ethical?
Yeah I think I said something to this effect in another comment. I'm working on an experiment that we can test for certain possible parameters to see what might impact the do rates. Stay tuned!
I agree especially when everything is so overpriced. I'm not buying your 50 dollar ultimate character I'll just stop playing the game if I'm one of the unlucky ones having to do countless runs.
It's refreshing to see someone actually take time and offer an in depth look at the how and why of the thing. As a content creator that makes TFD vids, it's frustrating to see the same types of videos over and over again getting gobbled up by watch time, and they don't offer anything substantial. Great job, and I hope you'll do more.
Thanks! I appreciate the feedback. Yeah it's definitely frustrating when people just complain about a thing without explaining the underlying issue. I'll definitely be making more videos, though right now I'm working on a large non-gaming video because of some things that popped up that I thought were worth the attention. That video should be coming up over the next couple of days
I still say they monitor what you have in your inventory crafting, tracking things you’re talking about in the mic etc. it is extremely strange how everyone in your group just happens to get the piece you always are hunting for and vice versa. It happens so often it can’t be coincidence.
Just brought a friend along to the first try of Dead Bride to see if I can get Luna's transcendent mod - it dropped for her, I didn't get it in the next 6 kills and gave up.
I wouldn't go as far as to say they are listening to your conversations lol but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a system in place that lowered the drop chance of the item you viewed recently to farm when you check where it drops on the map.
Yeah I helped a friend get patten 111 and we ran that outpost over 50 times. He got 2 and I got 13. He had another drop that was 32% and kept getting the 6% drop. After 20 tries he finally got the 32% one he wanted. It's just random and frustrating sometimes
I swear on everything good and holy I have been screaming this since it's release, as a Warframer I know what drops should feel like and with TFD as soon as you target something or they see that you only need one more part the game actively stops you from getting it and if you talk about that part or once you done that same level a certain amount of times they really lock you from getting it.
Very well explained. Great job. Keep posting more videos like this. I truly mean it !!! Now for some clarity with real world math… When something has a % ( drop rate ) it is ALWAYS based on (x) chances out of 100 or x/100. Which means if something has a 10% likely hood you should get 10 out every 100 attempts or 1 out of 10 attempts or 100 out of 1000 attempts. You can do all the fancy math you want but it comes down to the basics PERCENTAGES ARE BASED ON X/100 no matter what. This is a mathematical law. If a game uses any different math IT IS NOT A PERCENTAGE !!! Everyone playing this game knows the stated PERCENTAGES are not even close to their stated percentages therefore they are not using x/100 so they should not state it as a percentage If they took the percentages away people would not be so upset because it’s not so much the failure rate , it’s people know subconsciously they are being LIED to and that’s where the anger comes in !!! So to clarify… PERCENTAGES ARE ALWAYS BASED ON X/100. PERIOD !!!! If not x/100 it is not percentages. Period.
Everything you said here is correct, but I think there's one thing that's missing. That percentage only applies accurately over a very large sample size, the size that no single player will ever experience. For example, I'm willing to bet that if you take any single amorphous material that has a 6% chance for energy activators, that across all players who have opened that AM, that the actual rate of times that an Energy Activator dropped is extremely close to 6%, probably with an error rate of less than 0.001%. However, for any single player, it's entirely possibly and in fact more likely than not, that the number of times that they will get an energy activator 6 out of 100 times is fairly low, at least until they have opened somewhere in the vicinity of 1500-2000 of the same amorphous material
I play looters and have my usual rotation of looter games installed at the ready. But after TFD i said let me go back n play the ones i gave up on and see if i like the experience better than TFD. I reinstalled Outriders Division 2 and Anthem. All 3 felt better especially Anthem. You dont have to like or pick Anthem but i do suggest going back to ones you quit and compare the experience of them vs TFD. I just need No Mans Sky and Space Marines 2 and im straight. Oh yeah how could i forget the still king and creator of looter shooters Borderlands will be realesing part 4 real soon. Idc what yall say about the story i get it. Handsome jack was hard to replace but good riddance. The gameplay of BL3 was crazy and i was terrified as a borderlands fan that they might not be able to top the gameplay of BL2 with BL3. Boy was i wrong. Nailed it and hit it out of the park.
Great video, seeing the differences visually in graphs was really helpful to visualize the distribution. Personally i think the store to trade in extra materials could be the solution. ie. Trade in 100x other blueprints or parts from amorphous drops, and get a voucher. You can then trade that voucher for 1 amp drop of your choosing. It would kill two birds with one stone, getting rid of extra mats from fully completed items, and giving a mitigation system for the high end of the bad luck spectrum.
Yeah, either a trade system or a pity system is desperately needed. I think this "bad luck" problem must be one of the main reasons for player count going down.
Just wanted to drop some quick key points: 1. I think the most important takeaway from the video is that given a sufficiently large playerbase, setting up a 6% drop chance without some kind of mitigating system, it's like "sentencing" a substantial number of players not to have fun: for 6% drop chance this is about how many attempts will be needed to get the item sought after: 1 in 100 players will need ~74 1 in 1,000 will need ~112 1 in 1,0000 will need ~149 1 in 1,00000 will need ~186 1 in 1,000,000 will need ~223 This is why I believe in some kind of pity system. I have a few ideas on how they could do it without a pity system, but I just don't see them doing it. For example, it would be cool if every Amorphous Material had a "Luck Bar" that fills up each time you open it until you get the lowest chance drop rate from it, with each increase in the bar increasing your chance to get the 2 rarer drops. Imagine something like every time you open an Amorphous Material it's like it gets infused with a bigger level Shape Stabilizer. Who knows, what do you guys think?
I will say this right now, If we get a pity system. We WILL NOT get a trading system. The whole reason for the trading system is to ensure there is some safety net for players. If we get both, the in game shop will not receive any buyers whatsoever. There's no reason for a company that is as profit hungry as nexon to provide both of these safety measures, (or at the very least in my eyes very unlikely). I hope I will be proven wrong though.
@rattango9819 eeh, I think they can still implement both. But the things that you can get from the pitty system will not be tradable. Warframe did exactly this. You can trade Primes(Ultimates) with other players for premium currency, but there's no pitty system for Primes. On the other hand, Lich Weapons are not tradable, but there's a pitty system for it
I spent 4 to 5 five hours farming for Ult Valby's last piece at 10% and I finally got it... but in the process, I received 11 Ult Bunny parts...the grind doesn't bother me because the RNG generator to me is similar to a roulette wheel in gambling....if you know about gambling...losing streaks are real.....I've seen red or black sometimes not show up for 30 spins in a row on the roulette wheel and that is at a 50/50 chance...so losing streaks are real...the only way to stop a losing streak is to get away or take a break.....
@@rattango9819 You can get both. They do not have to make the trading system work for what we already have. But instead only for people who are in your current group for that run. They have mentioned an in game shop to trade in stuff we can not use to remove what we do have. Like Lepic catalyst when you are playing as Lepic. I do not recall if they will be modifying the loot table to not include obtained results. The future is unknown until it isn't. It really isn't fun spending 9 hours of repeated failures.
I thought of a similar solution, but much less refined. I thought it would be a good idea to drop half of everything in the pattern at once after a set amount attempts. For example, 50 attempts will give you "the more likely half" and 100 will give you "the less likely half". A bit of a see-saw reward system. Also stabilizers should make it guaranteed chance of getting the higher rarities, while dropping the lower rarities to zero. I get lower everytime, and I rarely get stabelizers in the first place, why punish me for getting lucky? A huge problem with this game right now is getting my hopes up after 50 runs of a single pattern and getting something useless.
Thank you for making this video, truly. As a simple dude, trying to do the simplest of things, all this complicated math just goes over my head, however, i do understand one thing, it just doesnt work like that in this game.
Great video! I use basically same CDF formula, but using 2 events, 1st be chance of getting amorphous material and 2nd chance of getting desired item from that material. Joint probability is just product of those 2, and if you want to see only one layer of probability, set one of those to 100%. Answer is final probability of success given number of attempts. So I farm until I get 20-50% final chance and then go spend it. Doesn't help with drop rate, but makes you feel subjectively more informed and a little less frustrated.
That's a really great idea and also more or less what I do as it gives a sense of "scale" for the effort if you will. Like it feels helpful to know that I have to run an activity X number of times to have a Y likelihood of getting the item I'm looking for.
I appreciate you taking the time putting this together, I’ve been so frustrated. I have the worse rng luck. for those that remember Ghallarjorn in Destiny 1, I was one of the last few to get one a year later. Watched a couple of my raid friends get 3 in a row.
Yeah. I'm glad destiny changed over the years to be much less reliant on pure RNG. It was one of the main reasons I quit playing it back in the day. I have played it again recently and it felt much more rewarding. I hope Nexon will change things soon
Thank you for the tool and information. After grinding and getting the full roster of charecters, it had settled on the number 24. So far, I've gotten every character within that limit.
This probably right. I was fumed by how unlucky I am with the Bio Lab drop rate. Finally the RNG god blessed me on my 20th run. But that was 20% drop rate, lol. Now, I am trying to get Luna with 10% drop rates 😆
Love this video. First TFD content video I've seen with actually good content. I get everyone trying to bash on NEXON but I choose to give this game the benefit of the doubt. I was an original Warframe player and I remember how that game first started and how difficult it was to get certain things, but look how far its come.
Thanks for the feedback, same here, I was a day 1 Warframe player. I get that Nexon has been in hot water for RNG funny business. But the main thing I've been trying to get across is that two things can be true at once (that they did some untoward stuff in other games without necessarily doing it in this game), and that while there seems to be a substantial number of people, including myself, experiencing bad luck, that this volume of people out of the 10+ million players that the game currently has, seems to fall within the expected range of such bad luck. What I am more curious about is whether the bad luck is truly random or "modified" by any factors like: 1. Do you get better luck if you're spending more money into the game? 2. Do you get better/worse luck if you put more hours into the game? 3. Do you get better/worse luck by completing activities in different ways (like wiping a boss in seconds vs doing a longer fight)? 4. Do you actually get "forced" worse luck when there's just 1 part left for crafting an item? These are all modifiers that could be applied without impacting the global drop rate for an item.
I must be a numerical anomaly because it took me 34 runs just to get the amorphous material 25% drop chance, and even after all that I still failed to get the part I needed at 32% drop chance. So I needed to run another 8-15 outpost runs just to fail again getting the piece. I proceeded to fail another 8 times while popping the amorphous mats. This was only one piece out of 4 to craft the item, and you need 5 total to max out a weapon. (Not even mentioning you need an activator 6% and 8 catalysts 10% to be able to run end game pub lobbies. The problem isn't the statistics, it's the compounding probabilities and Nexon locking every stage of progression behind RNG. We need either better drop rates, better stabilizers, or a pity system. Love the video, hate my RNG.
I totally get you, I haven't been able to do nearly as many build videos as I would like because I can't get Activators to save my life... I literally spend 10x the time farming compared to actually working on a build and making a video :(
The way I see it, they're doing the same in this game. There's no way you should do so many runs of something and not get what you want. No one should have to run something 50 times for one part of something. Especially when it's so hard sometimes for a person to hold their attention enough to sit there hour after hour and not be jaded that their time they're putting in is not being rewarded. In short, it's absolutely rigged.
I don't think it's really rigged. It's just the nature of probabilities and statistics. That's not to say they shouldn't mitigate it. I honestly am losing more and more fun with the game as I can't make more build videos due to not being able to get an activator blueprint after dozens of attempts.
I guess players nowadays are used to get spoiled with pity system. The drop rate aren't rigged, it just your luck is shit. My friend need to farm ulti lepic for days while i got all of it bp in just a day.
I don't mind doing multiple runs of things I use it as a way to level up my characters but when doing the void reactors to get 1 item I'm missing and I keep getting the same item I don't want for a weapon over and over again it gets taxing and irritated I don't want things handed to me but I don't want the same item to keep dropping back to back yo back either
The farm for ultimate lepic might just kill my interest. Like all of you I've been farming forever and still have yet to have lepic code. May it be 3%,6%,10%, or 16% it will not drop😮💨😮💨😮💨😮💨
What i get opening around 600 patterns: Game hate me and RNG hate me too. 0 Energy activator blueprients. What my friends get opening 100 purple patterns with 3% chances: 2 ultimate characters and 9 energy actvators. Nice, nexon, nice!
The main thing I'm getting from a lot of the comments is that if you try to do the same exact thing over and over again, it's like your luck goes to hell in a handbasket
Been doing outposts for the amorphus material that has a 20% dropp chance, been getting the shape stabilizer more often than the material it self. The shape stb has a dropp chance of 1,5%. I call a 100% bullshit rate on these droppchances
lol the fact you haven’t realised that your good luck is literally balancing out your bad luck in this comment is hilarious some of you are slow I swear
Amazing breakdown. I thoroughly enjoyed this and I hate math haha. You articulated my thoughts and then some. IMO us western audiences outside of the Path of Exile cult groups wouldn't want this even if they understood it. There is no feeling of value in a mediocre item costing 200 runs of a boss. The argument that players won't have others to team up in a raid/dungeon shouldn't be solved this way. FFXIV is a great example of keeping player active in all dungeons by adding better and more incentives to go back and team up. And even the best skins/rewards don't take that much effort. This here makes fun gameplay feel locked behind a gacha scheme.
Thank you! This was exactly the point I was trying to make. Worst yet, at least most gacha games these days have a pity system so at least you know there's no way you're gonna be that one person having to do what amounts to an endless # of runs to get a single item. Like, it's virtually statistically guaranteed that given the number of players this game currently has and the number of attempts at getting items so far, that there has been at least 1 person who either has needed, or who is in the midst of needing more than 250 runs to get a single 6% item. That's just not fun!
Thank you. I feel a little less like throwing my PC trough the window after not getting my last part to drop in 91 runs. Sure was great to start the same grind with friends that have been running around with the thing for weeks now .
I hope they put something in place soon, whether a direct mitigation system like pity, or trading, or something. Definitely seems like this is one of the main causes of bad player retention
I prefer the telepathic approach, either I click on the item as I'm opening materials or pretend I want a certain item when in reality I want the other item. 60% of the time, it works every time.
Very well done video, you can tell the effort you put in. Ryechew also does really good videos with math breakdowns so I'm glad to hear you give him a shout out. You've earned a new sub my friend, keep up the good work
What annoys me is it's pretty obvious TFD wants to compete with Warframe. Warframe has similar drops and rates, however Warframe has systems in place to mitigate going on long dry spells. For one, Warframe's Relics, the equivalent to TFD's Amorphus Materials, allow you to pick other players drops when you open them, so if your Relic doesn't have the part you're looking for, maybe another player in your team will get lucky and you can just choose their drop. Hell it even rewards the player who's drop gets picked too. Then there is acquiring Relics and Amorphus Materials. In Warframe Relics are much easier to obtain as you're not tied to a single activity to try and get that specific Relic, you're only restricted based on what Relics are in rotation, and what planet you are farming. It makes the act of gathering relics much less tedious since you don't have to run the same missions over and over and over which can compound the tedious feel of the drop rates in TFD. Then there is the fact Warframe has player trading and tradeable premium currency. So if you still haven't managed to get the stuff you want, you can sell your duplicate Prime parts to other players who need them and get the currency to buy the Prime or trade for an equavalent part. The fact TFD hasn't taken on much of the lessons Warframe learned within the past decade is honestly pretty baffling. I hope the devs can change course before too many people get burned and drop the game, because other than the bland story, TFD is a lot of fun to play.
I think I agree with pretty much everything you said. However, to be fair, Warframe has had a long time to mature and get to where it is now. I was a day 1 player, and there were definitely many bumps here and there along the way. I think that overall, Nexon is on track to make this a really good game, as long as they keep up with listening to player feedback and implementing improvements on a regular basis.
I farm 10 Amorphics at a time , for an item with a 6% drop chance running it 10 times is just under a 50/50 chance of getting it , so far it seems to be ruffly accurate with some parts being a little more troublsome than others but ive eventually got them, ultimate ajax took less than 24 hours and ultimate bunny took less and 17 hours , fully upgrading enduring legacy and naz devotion took about 48 hours, during this time the game felt it was funny to give me 4 energy activator blueprints , long story short sometimes RNG will just hate you
yeah its pretty much fair and balanced. i opened 50+ amorphous for ultimate gley enhanced cells and 30+ for her stabilizer and only got one drop each. i think im done cahsing ultimates for a while. also for the energy activator bp i have opened over a 100 and only got like 2 drops
good video - thanks! I know the math and statistical probability theory reasonably well and this was well explained. I almost always count the number of runs needed for an item to drop. And based on the number of runs that are sometimes needed, it appears I have super bad luck in this game with great probability too many times to be a coincidence. NEXON states that the /global/ drop rate is as listed. That may be true, but I believe they utilize their patent on dynamic variable drop rate on a per player basis to try and optimize any number of factors: for example player retention, player online time, micro-transactions etc. I hope NEXON tunes their algorithms more towards player satisfaction as they have stated in a vague manner, which means retention over the long run.
This could definitely be the case. I was chatting with a friend of mine and was saying something similar even before I knew about the supposed patent. Would be interesting to get enough players to be able to test this
@@MrLukium It's probably too hard to crowdsource enough participants to get a statistically significant result. It should also be noted that I have experinced some lottery-winning like streaks of good luck recently (co-incidentally enough to keep me interested in playing). I needed High-Voltage for Ult Bunny, which I sadly paid for. So I tried combining 1 red + 3 yellow mods. Got it first try. Then I got two copies on my next kill of Pyromaniac. Others report no luck getting High-Voltage after 40+ attempts at both combining and Pyromaniac. Same good luck getting 4 recent Energy Activator Blueprints. Both the bad luck and the good luck streaks have been extraordinarily tilted on each side of the listed probability spectrum.
My tip on farming. Dont keep trying same one of its giving same exact item. When i get the same item more then a couple times i leave and go somewhere else. In my experience if it does it more then a couple times, it will do it multiple more. If its giving different each time, keep trying, itll happen eventually.
It's in your head, you convince yourself that because you leave and come back it will "reset" your luck or whatever. All games with rng there is always someone that says something stupid like that, it's crazy.
@@HuskySansVergogne i suppose. But every time i get same thing once or twice, if i don't stop, i will get it five more times. Rather then going somewhere else and farming.
Down with your superstitious gamer mindset. No no no no no. IMPROVE DROP RATES or I’m not coming back. That’s a bad mindset. Supposingly you open 40 and you get 0. You can’t tell me to go out and come back 40 times just to “think” that it reset the RNG. The game is playing you at this point.
Nexon has a patent for something shady so I'm also of the opinion of the OP. I have better luck when mixing it up than target farming 1 item. The something shady being them manipulate drop rate %s on the fly
What I love is that if I really want an the item that has a 32-36% drop chance I will literally get everything on that Cell, including Energy Activators 2-3x before it will give me that 32% drop. Makes no sense to me. Or if i really want a certain Amorphous Cell from an outpost, it will give me the gold mod or the stabilizer before I get the cell.
@@shi7595 grinding for that Ult Valby Enchanced Cell and I swear to God I have gotten everything on that Amorphous multiple times over and still no cell. And of course they tie the highest drop % for the Ult Valby Cell to the 2 most annoying bosses in the game currently if you're not insta nuking them. 🥲
Bro same i want to get the 32% python but i always get energy activator and now I have 37 energy activator sitting in my inventory and still no python 😢
Yes in a given population there will be a certain number of people that will have a bad luck streak. The saving grace is that the system is not truly random, but pseudo-random. Each time you boot up the game you get a different seed, so the bad luck streak technically rotates among the population rather than settling on them. If you are having a bad luck streak, just turn it off and turn it back on again. It literally works for everything.
Had a weird executioner experience myself. Was farming for an hour executor part from a particular amorphous material that involved me killing executioner on hard. Outta 22 drops I only received 1 part. This piece has a 32% drop chance. I got more energy activator blueprints.
A good compromise to a pity system could be instead to trade duplicate parts (or a number of them) for a shape stabiliser. Nexon would obviously need to specify which one based on the rarity of the item. e.g. trading something that drops from a level 1 material at 32% for a level 6 stabiliser probably isn't a good trade from their perspective. If those things are working correctly it should increase the chance of a preferred drop, and mitigate inventory bloat at the same time.
A system that lets you recycle unwanted parts into a currency that can be spent at a new vendor to buy specific parts is the best system for games like this. It encourages grinding and keeps up the excitement because you _know_ you're going to get what you're after, even if it takes 500 runs. It also encourages varied activities instead of just grinding the one thing, because you're able to recycle anything.
Got my like 👍I cant say I have been one of those really bad luck runners... or seen any particularly nefarious drop issues. I got Ultimate Lepic with a total of 9 Patterns... 9! Then again, an Ultimate Valby piece took me around 30 patterns for one piece, even with some Stabilizers thrown in. I've had cases of Activator blueprints dropping back to back, and even Catalyst blueprints (15% chance) dropping 4 times in a row on Dead Bride. On the other side, I've had Nazeistra's Devotion piece drop 40+ times in a pattern farm, and not get anything that I actually wanted, which statistically could be considered as 'lucky' 😅
@@MrLukium Apparently so! I just finished 'farming' Ultimate Bunny pieces... 14 patterns in total. Just got the last piece this moment, after two Pattern 99's! 😅
Mr. Lukium, great video, I really enjoy when game content creators explain the math involved in whatever topic they are talking about. I will subscribe to your channel because of your great effort explaining and because you supported your explanation with actual data.
Thank you for this feedback! This is exactly the kind of content creator I want to be. There's few things more infuriating to me in watching content than someone being like "YOU MUST TRY THIS S-TIER BUILD NOW!" and I'm like "bro, the math behind that build says It's line b-tier"...
Took nearly 2 weeks just to get Ult. Bunny. Yesterday, actually got my very first EA bp drop since the game launched. Days to get Luna stabilizers, and many times to get another drop of hers that was supposedly over 30%. And many other times where days pass before I get what I'm going for. There's bad luck, which I do have plenty of, and then there's straight up something wrong. I personally don't trust Nexon to give the accurate numbers. Data mining from people not tied to Nexon would be needed to convince me there is no rigging. The longer it takes to get something, that percentage eventually drops bit by bit. That 20% drop someone has been grinding days for, is no longer 20% at that point of nearly a week in. I like the idea that they are implementing a mercy system, but I'd wait and see if it's implemented properly. No offense man, but I take this video with a handful of salt. Nexon has been caught not once, but multiple times cheating their playerbase, with the most notable being the lawsuit we know about. I like the game, but a month in, and I've barely gotten my first EA bp to drop, alone? That's just wrong. Even 40-50 runs should not be a thing in any game. Couple that with the rng stacked on rng in this game. Coming from WF, where drop rates are below 5% for some stuff; that says something.
Bunny IS the hardest Ult to farm, though, for sure. The easiest is Valby and the other 4 are in the middle. But I feel you - Ult Bunny was a pain to get
@@MrLukium Yall are getting descendants? I've been farming a few hours a day (4-5h) since release and the only other I have outside of the free one and bunny is Freyna. No ults, just literally 1 descendant. I'm about to quit for good. I've ran 100s if not thousands of missions so far and haven't a damn thing to show for it other than a few weapons.
And break down the time it takes. Lets say 2 minutes per Outpost (1 minute cooldown while you hit the hacking stations, plus 1 minute wiggle room + boss kill). So every 8 minutes you get 1 of the 0dd number AMs. 6% chance means youll get 1 in 17, so if you prep up 17, now youre 136 minutes deep, and you havent even gone to crack the codes. If those codes are Collosi and you have a good solo killer, lets say 2 minutes per run, for 34 + 136 = 170 minutes, or 3 hours. For 1 part. If you need to crack the thing on a Void Gate, farming the mats and then opening the gate to kill the boss is easily 5 minutes total, so thats 85 + 136 = 221 minutes, or 3 hrs 41 minutes. All in all, not terrible... but thats for 1 piece. So 4 pieces at that rate and a person who gets 1 hour of play time a night will spend ALL of their playtime for 2 weeks just to unlock 1 character.... then you have to wait 2 days for the character to craft.
I practically don't do Strategic Outposts because of this. I usually run the Hard Mode infiltration operations instead. Funny enough though, players doing the outposts seem to get much better luck with the drops from them, so go figure 🤷♂️
I was so lucky today. In the space of about 4 hours I got all the ult gley drops. The past few days I have been really lucky unlike the previous few weeks when everything was a chore to farm!
This is a great video, thank you. I think the drop rate is bugged, not rigged. There *seems* to be some sort of issue where you get into a loop of getting the same item over and over and over again. It's like the random number gets cached or something. When I'm opening AMs I don't get the sense that there is an even distribution even over the high probability items. For example, if there are two 38% items in an AM and I open it 10 times, I would expect to get about an even distribution across the three "buckets" (38% #1, 38% #2, other #3). But, I don't tend to see that. I tend to see the same 38% item 10 times in a row. I have had so many 10-12-14 streaks I can't be that lucky. Look at your inventory. You will have huge piles of certain items. The issue with a bug like this is that cumulative probabilities over the population would look normal. Your massive streaks of one item would offset my massive streaks of the other item and the developers would conclude "working properly". Anyway, thank you again for the thoughtful content.
I actually think there could be something to this, it's just really hard to tell since I'm just 1 dude, and almost any distribution across a number of attempts is technically possible. For example: is it really weird that after farming 077 I've gotten twice as many blue beetle blueprints than executor blueprints even though they have the same drop chance? Definitely. Is it impossible (or even that unlikely) that 1 player could experience this distribution across the tons of players playing the game? Not really. But again, I totally agree that it can feel that way. I just wish that Nexon would release the data for global drop rates across the entire player base like they alluded to a few weeks ago (Don't think it's gonna happen though) and even if they did, due to their unfortunate track record, there's definitely going to be a substantial number of people who will reasonably not trust their numbers.
Why do you think they don't release the data for global drop rates across the entire player base? Like you said, they said they will but still nothing, do you think there's a reason behind hiding these data?
There's been a tendency remarked on by TFD players, that we keep getting things we already have rather than what we don't have (and are trying to farm). Seen particularly when farming with friends, how one friend already has an item the other friend is trying to farm, the the player that already has the item gets others of same, etc. Maybe its a player bias, maybe not.
so what i heard is that your chance of faliure lower with every try AND your chance of success lower with every try. Do both eventually zero out with enough tries and create a paradoxon wich spawns a black hole infront of your screen and eats reality? because thats how it feels like trying to get ultimate gley parts..
Your luck isn't really changing. The key is that there's a very high variability in the number of attempts needed to succeed in getting the item you're looking for with a pretty high likelihood of needing well above the average number of tries
Ok, I do feel a little better after this video about not getting a drop after over 100 attempts. Thanks for breaking this down, I'm new to looter shooters and it was driving me crazy trying to figure out why I couldn't get something.
Glad the video helped, and I'm sorry you're one of the outliers all the way out on the 100+ attempts. Happy to see you being a good sport about it and sticking around. Hopefully they roll out a new system soon so others don't have to have this kind of experience.
@@MrLukium Yeah luckily I have alot of patience, and I kinda like grindy games. Indeed they should implement the pity system like you were saying. Oh and just finished watching your skill power vid too. Thanks again! Definitely subscribing 👍
@@kujop1 Yeah it did, the reason being is, he just explained that grinding a mission till your eyes bleed trying to get something, has diminishing returns. So instead of wasting my hours doing one mission over and over, I go do something else.
Basically he's saying that if you don't get in on the first chance you're not going to have a higher chance if you keep doing it you're not going to get a higher chance it's going to lower a chance so it's better to do something else that has the same thing that you're looking for at a higher chance each time go back to the same one that you've done after you've already completed the other test for the other chances you had
Not entirely 100% what I was saying, but in spirit, yea. If you're having really bad luck going for 6% items, honestly, might as well go for something else, because otherwise, you could be in that sub 1% of runs that will take 75+ attempts to get what you're looking for. Unless you don't mind the grind of course, there's something for everyone. But if it's getting unfun, just go for Non-Ultimate/Catalysts instead of Ult/Activators until Nexon releases their updates system.
tbh that’s how my drops work for example i was farming Sharon one mission 20 times in a row and literally nothing i gave up and switched to another piece for her got it in 3 tries then switched back and got the other piece on the 21st try it’s happened soooooo many times for me just switching to another pattern or just going after another piece then coming back and i get the one i was struggling on
First off, I'll say this isn't meant to be taken as a criticism to your video or you personally. This was a very well done video with some exemplary math. Also, thank you for explaining exactly how rng works, because most players think that the more you run an activity, that your chance increase instead of actually decreasing. Unless you can see the inner-workings of the code these are all assumptions because you don't know exactly which kind of algorithm they are using for their rng. in your example you used a 4-sided die, while still being 25%, it's based of a total subset of 4, so you have a total of 4 possible outcomes, 1,2,3,4. If the algorithm they are using is based on 100, you can see how your chances of obtaining that 25% declines exponentially, because the chance for failure INCREASES exponentially. Combine that with the fact random number generator algorithms can be based on what ever total the coder chooses to use. What if its based on of a total 1000 or 10,000??? I would have to say that the algorithm has to based on at least 100 or 1000 because of some of the drop rates that are displayed in the game, 5 and/or 6% for example wouldn't be achievable by anything based on less than 100. The oddities that come into play are the ultra small drop chances, like 1.5%, which typically are only achievable by an algorithm based on 1000 or higher. The reason for this is rng algorithms only deal in "integer" or whole numbers, (1,2,3,5,13, etc.) they don't produce "fractional" or mixed numbers, (1.5, 2.6, 4.3, etc) So either their algorithm is based off of 1000 (which would explain why drop rates are so abysmal) or the algorithm is based on 100 and they are doing some weird code voodoo to produce the fractional drop rates somehow. Either way, I love this game and I hope they implement some kind of "bad luck protection" into the rng, other than the new "modified" implementation that they stated.
I'm not 100% sure I understand... Surely, if the stated chance is 25% and they code it against 1000, then 25% of the 1000 outcomes, or 250, would result in success, otherwise, they would not be able to claim it's a 25% chance. I do agree that there could be additional things going on here, just not what you described. For example, it's entirely possible for the devs to have written the code such that the overall chance stays at 6% for a given item, while simultaneously tweaking it for individual players based on difference scenarios, like for example, it could be the case that if you're looking for the last item to craft an item and that item you're looking for has a 6% chance, that the actual chance becomes lower, while for players that are looking for it for the first time get a higher chance - again, all the while maintaining a global 6% chance.
This video is amazing thanks for the hard work! You manage to explain complex toipics making them sound easy. Keep up the hard work pls there is very few people like you un yt producing this high quality content
Thank you so much for the positive feedback! I'm really glad the video was able to make this sound easy, as I remember struggling with this topic back in the day!
Look yall keep saying this without definite proof it's simple you have a 3% chance drop rate congratulations you have a 97% not to get it I came from warframe there's things in that game that have a 1% chance drop rate 😅 but that being said these people saying 100 plus runs I'm calling bs on that unless your running a mission drop chance because it's competing with 4 other drops you'll also need to look at what your farming if your farming a 10% drop on a boss it's drop chance I believe is weighted lighter than running a void reactor with the same drop chance is going to be weighted towards the 3% and 10% drop chance for example I was running a void reactor for ult lepic code 10 relics 6 straight runs I got the 3% drop [extremely lucky] the next three we're the 30% drop unlucky and on the last one I got the code so the drops are correct the issue may be your farming method the only part that gave me issues with 60 runs is ajax ultimate spiral if you have legit ran 100 plus of anything in this game you're a statistical unicorn 😂
there will be some 100+ runs given the size of the player base. They just announced that they reached 10,000,000 descendants. Statistically, there should already have already been a few 200+ runs
1. Allways track the amorphous material not the thing your looking for 2. GTA rules apply - if you have it youll start getting it more 3. You need a code or weapon part find what else is thier and want that more.
If you stand on the rock to the left of the boss in the void mission, he just stands there and doesn't move. He'll still do the electric tether but if you're far enough into the game to be farming these, then it should do 5 or less per tick which would take FOREVER to kill you. So just stand there and shoot until he goes immune, then get right back up there, makes it nearly free on any decendant. He actually only does the tether on his 2nd damage phase cause if you're on the rock and start shooting as soon as he spawns he'll not move from his spawn at all and won't do it, but as soon as he's immune and you drop down it starts. If you run out of ammo when farming it just let him kill you akd respawn with full ammo again.
Good video! Nexon needs to increase the drop rate based on how many times you run the activity to prevent anyone from having to run an activity more than 3 times. 😊 Also, increase the chance of a stabiliser. I now do not farm anymore for 3 or 6% because I know it will be painful if one does drop while farming something with a higher drop rate all well and good. Although that can be annoying when you're farming for a 10 - or 20% drop and the 3% drops. Will they actually do anything tho?
I honestly despise the stabilizers, mainly because I seem to almost never ever get them. And then the rare time I get them and use them, I never ever get the 6% item lol. It's like Nexon is just trying to make fun of me 😁
Yes, each of the items will have their own geometric distribution. So, the distribution for A will be different than B, which will be the same as C, with D and E also being the same to each other. Now if you look at another AM with a different loot table. Say 6, 10, 20, 32, 32, then the 6% distribution from item 1 will look the same as the 6% from item 2. So, the only thing that matters is one outcome's given probability, not the other underlying probabilities.
when I try get to get enduring lagacy blue print 10% in 20 times but i got 6% mushroom 4 times , all I think is the game trying to not give you what you want, its the next gen AI
I find it so funny when some one makes a video of this nature and try to use math , Meanwhile back in Nexon aka TFD Drop Rates Math isn't Mathing. Most Looter Shooters have been like this for years now. No point trying to explain RNG when even RNG doesn't know what to do at times. No point trying to say this or that. Most people know how RNG is. RNG will not give what you want if you are aiming to get something you really want. Only when you decide to aim to get something else, RNG decides to do the whole "Oh you wanted this. Here you go." It happens more often than people want to admit. I lost count how many times I got the same thing over and over again. So please stop trying to convince people this is why you don't get what you want. I have over 300+hours in this game. And I played many types of games in the Looter Shooter Genre. Each game has some type of RNG, Destiny 1 had one of the worse RNG to deal with until TFD took their crown. Warframe has the best RNG if you get a crew to run the same Relic. Moving on TFD is drop rates are BS and everyone knows this. It's not even about bad luck, cause every Pattern has a number of the chance you will get something and all of it is wrong. Any 38% chance is actually higher and any 3% is actually lower. If I keep getting the same 38% more so than anything else something is wrong. Especially if I did a runs over 30 times. You don't need to be a math wiz to notice this.
Not at all, I'm even trying to run an experiment to find out exactly where their tweaking of the RNG is. You can check it out here: th-cam.com/video/dZ1ovT6psVg/w-d-xo.html The biggest issue to me is that most people just want to complain, and not enough people want to help figure out exactly what's going on
@@MrLukium Yesterday,, I can tell you right now something isn't right with the RNG, was aiming to get the Ult Gley Stab from a reactor. I must have used over 30 92 patterns mind this is a span of two different days. Not a single drop, so I got annoyed, and went to do Ult Ajax's with only 16 patterns. End up getting it on the 6th try. Even did normal Ajax with 4 patterns, got that on the third try. RNG is off on the Ult Gley part reactor. Also my friend and I did the Ult Gley part reactor together the second time I went to do it. He had the same 17 pattern 92 plus shape forms for it as I did.. He got nothing as well. And here I thought Destiny 1 had bad RNG, TFD is speeding ahead.
To be honest i don't trust anymore on those % the game gives, at least on Warframe you sometime with a low % and still get the blueprint in few attempts, here took me 30 for the python nanotube.
I seem to have ok luck with descendant BPs but for weapons and Activators I have no luck 😭. You come join the experiment I just dropped here on YT, we're gonna be testing for a few variables to see if things are rigged
The problem is most people see 5% drop chance and think oh I just need to do 20 runs and I should have it. After 20 runs, only half of the people will have gotten it, half did not. After 40 runs, 25% of the people still didn't get it. People think it's very unlikely, like one in thousands that they did 50 runs for a 6% drop and not get it, but in reality it's like 15% of the population that is in the same boat.
Yep, that's a pretty good summary of what I'm trying to get across. And then when you have a game with 10 million player base, the number of people that that 15% represents gets pretty substantial, and especially those in the button 3-5% who are seeing 50+ attempts will become the loudest voices, and next thing you know, it sounds like that's happening to everyone
All I know is that I opened 4 materials using shape stabilizers and got the 40% (dropped down 16% from stabilizer) all 4 times. Then opened 2 without and got the 6% back to back.
I've ran the Void Shard in Sterile Land trying to get Mental Focus General Rounds 85 times. It's a 5% chance for drop rate. According to the graph, the chances of me NOT getting it by now is 1.35%. THERE IS NO FREAKING WAY THE DROP RATE IS 5%. I refuse to believe it. But thank you for the video and graph.
Thanks I knew about this but did not understand the math. now I understand the math but my head hurts. I want to scream this makes no sense but then I remember that the universe is under no obligation to make sense to me.
I think the problem is assuming that the drop rate chance carries over or stacks based on your attempts. I think the drop chance is calculated at 6% or whatever the drop chance # is, ever single time you attempt a run. Your odds don’t increase or your chance not to get the item doesn’t decrease.
Your chance on each attempt is in fact independent of other attempts. The point of the video is that it is also true that the vast majority of runs will not end with a drop out of every 16.67 attempts (6%), despite that being the average. The attempts themselves vary wildly, with the most frequent result being 1 attempt, and some runs taking crazy long, well above 100. Chance doesn't work in normal distributions (where the majority of the outcomes tends toward the mean), it works in geometric distribution (where most outcomes tend towards 1, but with a really long right tail - needing well above the average for a lot of runs)
Great Video. Helped change my perspective a bit. I am definitely cursed by rng. The "I would hate to be the guy that takes 223 attempts." It's me...I'm that guy lol.
also in this game is even lowered because you need a 5-25% chance of the Amorphous material and then you get 6% chance per material to get what you actually want
Also, perhaps for future math lessons, use the 1% or 2% chance for the data because those are the items people want and why people watch the video. I think. 6% is low, but seeing the game say the chance is 1% is disheartening.
everyone focused on pattern/mod drop rates, when the real demon in the room is farming the exact gold sub stats you want on reactors, components and guns 😂
does the drop chance probability reset if you try get a drop from a different loot pool? Like trying different anamorphous mats across different bosses to get an energy activator blueprint for example, would the probability still get lower and lower the more you run even though its different loot pools?
I don't think there's such a thing as a "luck" memory... and again, your drop chance isn't actually going up and down with each attempt. Your chance of getting a 6% item is always 6%, the main point of the video is to understand that when it comes to chance, most of your overall runs will either end quickly, with less than the average, say 16.67 attempts for 6%, or substantially more.
I don’t understand people, it’s still RNG. Just cause something has a 20% drop chance doesn’t mean you should get it, you still have a 80% chance to fail. I do have bad days which patterns and I have good days. I have better rng with farming certain transcendent mods, so at least my rng is good in that. Every single transcendent mod I got was a 2% chance to drop and it never took me more than 10 tries on a single one. You people need to look at your W’s and stop just looking at your losses, negative mindsets.
I think the key, which I tried to convey in the video, is to grasp the distribution (even if it comes across nerdy/mathy). Most things we do in life tend to fall in a normal distribution, which really doesn't work for chance. If you really get what I'm trying to say in the video, then you end up with better expectations that will more closely match your experience and should at least make you feel less "cheated". Luck just sucks at low chances and given enough tries (like with a large player base). someone will be the poor sap that need 100+ attempts at 6% chance (in fact, there will be quite a few of them)
I really believe that there is something in the code that knows when you need a last part of a weapon, i have tested it over over and over again. i have played a lot of looter shooter and nothing compares to this game, sorry i dont trust them.
I think my biggest issue is locking some of the AMs behind a specific character and mechanic. I love the flavor of using Sharen for bonus loot, but to straight up block a mechanic behind a character is weird. At least with Enzo I can do the vaults without him, its just easier with him.
I just hate that Outposts have a % chance to give the blueprint. I much rather they had done something like the infiltration operations where you can get a guaranteed chance of double drop, even if the timer had stayed at 5 minutes
I think the system for using duplicate items should be a way to buy shape stabilizers. Turn in weapon parts for a weapon stabilizer which will increase the weapon part chance on any of your Amorphous Mat. Same goes for Descendants and Enhancement Materials. 20% increase would be nice.
I casually got the 3 pieces of Lepic so figured I'd go ahead get the code real quick before farming for ultimate. 5 days later still and no Lepic Code lmao
Honestly if you hav run 652 of them do something else, there's multiple ways to farm every item. People say Nexon's patent might extend play time due to skewing results, I've had my best results when confusing it
Well, the math here is completely correct, the issue that the community is facing; however, is still completely irregular. For example, in the scenario shown here with the 6% chance and 100,000 attempts, there was still those several attempts that took 220ish runs. Whilst that is possible, and does happen those few times, in all actuality what the community has been experiencing woul be as if (I don't know the exact numbers) instead of those several 200+ attempt streaks, there were several hundred people in that same exact 100,000 runs that all required 200+ runs... which does completely break the actual factual and mathematical probabilities shown here that are correct. For exame, the well known Freyna drop chance. Use the formula. It is a 20% drop chance, yet there are hundreds... possibly thousands that have run 20+ runs and still not gotten the drop... and that is just the vocal portion that took the time to complain. How many people had the same issue but just either didn't care enough to be vocal, or straight up don't know, so don't say anything. Thing is, that low probability of not getting the part after a large amount of runs is vastly unproportional to actual probability chances.
@@MrLukium Awesome, I can't wait to see the experiment, especially given how well educated you seem to be and how well made the video was. You are a great creator.
200 runs for 082 for bunny code, then when going for regular lepic code, got 4x ult gley parts. In a row I legitimately was looking into if it was a rigged system, but because I got 4x ult gley parts (6%) I am a statistical outlier on each side of the spectrum.
My friends and I keep being in the unluckiest 2-3%! I had to make 33 runs for a 10% and my friend yesterday had to make more than 20 runs for 20% chance. Crazy! Totally not rigged 🙂
I mean... someone has to be at those low rates. To really know if it's rigged we would have to sample a large, unbiased (can't just sample the people who are having bad luck) and see if the reality matches the expected numbers (so pretty hard to do - especially in trying to get an unbiased sample). Judging by the reports I'm seeing though, it doesn't seem like it's rigged, even though I am in that 5-10% worst luck bucket myself
@MrLukium I also believed it wasn't rigged until it happened again on the next ultimate the next day and then to my friend on his ultimate the day after. What are the chances of being in the 2-3% consistently? Edit: for the record, we are very dedicated to the game and are on our last few characters
@@MrLukiumyou hear everyone complaining about the same thing yet you’re refusing to acknowledge that something is wrong. People that play other looter shooters are telling you this game doesn’t feel right. Go watch other videos about this. Is everyone just crazy or what
And again it happened last night. I did outposts over and over. I got 2 materials out of over 30 runs (25% chance). I went to Albion, reloaded the outpost map, got 7 out of 8. What are the chances of this happening. And you might say it's extraordinary but possible - but why are extraordinary things happening every day
The RNG isn't variable. That's not what I'm saying in the video. There's just a larger than you might expect variability when it comes to the range of likely number of attempts needed to get an item at 6%. 40+ attempts are not going to be that rare.
I have farmed everything in game now all ult descendants, weapons, all F2P. Worst luck I had was amorphous 99 for Bunny, 10% drop took me over 50 tries. But contrary to that I had good luck as well, Ult Lepic in 3hrs, Ult Gley in 4hrs. After lots of play it feels pretty balanced. The worst luck and hardest grind has been reactors because you cant roll them and they can roll dead stats.
Drop chances on this game is trash. I have 40 gley spirals and still haven't got 1 bunny spiral after tons and tons of trying. Devs must fix this nonsense. Ppl have jobs we can't spend 1000 hours on 1 piece
For me personally to make it feel better when I get something I wasn't looking for, I only use patterns that have other thing I wouldn't mind getting. As a example day you want I descendant piece but in the pattern you could get a energy blueprint and also a weapon piece you want. Now can you still get something you dont want sure but it raises the chance of getting something you dont mind getting.
Actual drop rates aside it seems like the law of averages is thrown out the window. I was farming drop (A)@ 38% and yet received drop (B)@38% ten times in a row. If the two high percent drops have the exact same drop rate, how did I not receive a single other drop during ten attempts?
Law of averages is only accurate in very large sample sizes. On many ways, that's the point of my video. If you get 1000 items from the same AM, then yeah, your experience will be very close to the average. But if you're don't just 10, then there's a pretty good chance that your experience will be less like than the acetate because it only takes a couple of outliers to make your numbers seem abhorrent abnormal
The drop rate will be the end of this game. 35 times grinding for a module then going to a reactor and beating it 35 times to get the same items 34 times is pure shit.
This is all great but let's give a couple of vivid examples from my experience.. Recently farmed 100 and 101 materials. Their chances are the same - 25% having made 30 visits I expected to get closer to 15 units, about 7 of each, in reality I got 5 101 and zero 100, you can calculate what the probability of such an event is... A similar situation with the transformation of amorphous materials, sometimes an item with a 20% probability does not drop even after 15 attempts, but an item with a 6% probability drops almost every 5-6 attempts.
i farmed 47 amorphous material 44 mutant from Old Mystery. i used 46 of them before i got the Ultimate Valby Enhanced Cells Blueprint. which is a 6% drop rate.
I would love to know why when cracking amorphous it favors one 32% drop over the other one a majority of the time. At about a 1x 32% to 10x 32%. Both at 32% you would think the majority of the time the two should be close in number.
You know, I've been wondering the same thing. I've been watching as 077 has given me 14 Blue Beetle and 7 Executor... I do wonder if there's something going on with their pseudo-random generator mechanic
@@MrLukium This is probably wrong but I suspect that the numbers they show us are the % of players that have a higher chance to get the items and at points during the day it secretly assigns %'s to our accounts. Would explain the 3 activators in a row and a buddy of mine has a surplus of 20+ activators looking for a few 20% drops. 🤷♂️ Edit: I only suspect this because if I open 10 amorphous and don't get what I need I wait til the next day and usually get it first try. I don't believe the listed %s ^_^
@@MrLukium Man, I got 22 Valby parts before getting my 1st Python one. Both were common at 38%. I feel like if you repeat the same Colossus over and over, the game eventually locks on one of the common drops and it starts giving you that one over and over. I eventually finished building 5 Pythons, but I have 68 of that same Valby part sitting in my inventory. Def something weird going on. Anyway, amazing video with great information and presentation. You deserve more subs, and needless to say got one from me!
Do outpost drop rates feel horrible for anyone else after latest update? Going dry 10+ runs (for both AM) in a row with sharen infiltration feels wrong
It comes in spurts. I was farming them with my wife last night and in our first 10 runs i got 5 of the odd number, she got 0. It really sucked because i was farming them for her, not me.
Shape stabilizers have such a low drop chance that to me it would make more sense that they allow you to pick one of the items that can drop and boost just its chance by say 5% or 10% for each one used so that if you managed to actually save up say 10 of them you could just pick what you want to drop at a 100%, or even have the stabilizer just be 1 item that can be used on any amorphous rather than just a couple depending on which one it is. I have a little over 150 hours myself so far and don't have a single ultimate Descendent, and for the most part have only been trying to get Gley. That said I have maybe spent a total of 10 hours of that time doing things that would lead to getting Gley and have only opened about 20 amorphous materials in an attempt.
Yeah, I feel like Shape Stabilizers as they are implemented are borderline useless when you factor in your "improved" chances from using them vs not having them at all
The only factor you haven’t consider the drop chances refreshes every time when you enter different zone since there is mutilple servers and endless zones
I never claimed that the independent chance of getting an item on a given try changes. The point is that the distribution for independent successive attempts at a given rate will fall on a geometric distribution, meaning that it's statistically likely that a substantial number of people will experience "bad luck," such that for example, there's a 6% chance of needing at least 45 attempts to get an item with a 6% drop rate. It's not that you get locked into that pattern at some given point. It's that just like on average you will get the item on the 17th attempt (16.67 average), on average, players trying to get an item that has a 6% drop rate, will, 6% of the time, need 45 attempts.
From what I have read this very company was sued by the Korean government for lack of transparency of the drop odds. They was drop manipulating for the purpose of frustrating people into purchases. With that in mind do you honestly think with the amount of people getting frustrated with that very issue it is beyond the possibility of them not really stopping previous practices?
Keep it mind that Nexon was fined over $8 million for secretly lowering the probabilities of loot boxes in one of their games, in some cases to near zero. They did this for over a Decade.
I'm aware. If I read it right, the one item was actually impossible to get. To be fair though, I have not seen any evidence of anything similar in TFD. I honestly think that it's just poor game design at this point. With such a large playerbase, having unmitigated (meaning that there's essentially nothing in place to stop bad luck streaks) sub 10% drop chance is like sentencing a whole lot of people to fun-shattering bad luck. Check the numbers in the pinned comment for some context.
yeah which is why they wouldn't risk doing this again... lets hope drop rates are real and not fudged
@@DelphieNEhuntah9 million (the actual amount) is Pennies.
They got fined the equivalent of 9 million USD for something they fudged for nearly a decade… they didn’t lose money nor did they learn a lesson, this is no different than recalls or settlements corporations have to deal with… they made their money, the pennies they have to pay in fines is nothing.
I mean $8 million...... Are ppl that dense that they think a corporation is willing to make the same $8 million mistake again?? That's why they've been very transparent with this game
@@christopherjackson9741 Corporations do not look at it that way. Over a decade how many hundreds of millions of dollars did they earn? It was very profitable. 8 million dollars was not a big impact. Breaking down the cost versus risk. The reward was worth far more than the fine. This happens everywhere around the world. Vehicle recalls for instance. When a known problem crops up. They go over the numbers to see what the chances are and the risks. People have died to this math from choosing not to do a massive recall. We might think 8 million is a lot of money and it is. But compared to over 600 million dollars. You can live with losing 8 million dollars.
The legal requirement that they got in trouble for was hiding the fact that they reduced the chances with out informing the user base.
I currently have 240 hours in the game, I love the game, but if anything is going to drive me away, its drop rates. It doesn't matter what the math is, if its not fun, I don't like it. The drop rates are not fun. Way too many items have low drop rates, and Ive spent most of my time trying to get a FEW patterns to drop what I want, when I should be doing the actual fun content like fighting the new boss and farming him. But instead Im doing infil missions and void shard missions for 100 hours only to get nothing I need. "Nothing" is an exaggeration, but I do think its fair to say. The drop rates are causing this frustration.
I agree 100%. I'm at 271 hours now, and being unable to make more builds just because I can't get energy activators at a steady rate is really hurting the fun factor for me
1000% same.
And I came from WoW, Borderlands, Destiny etc. I feel like I did my time. I was younger and did that “grind”. I’m older now, I’ve been down this road before, gimmie the damn thing now or else I quit and play other games.
There is a surplus of games trying to get me to play. IF Nexon wants to drop me a 50th Albion Calvary nano tube and I can’t unlock & play as Ult Valby ….. ok. Bye. Deleted from my hard drive.
I will go play other games.
I feel your pain. I'm a gley main and wanted to try the new Greg's build. I'm currently on run 50 of swamp walker for Mental Focus since it ammo type specific and doesn't carry over. Im also on over 100+ Pyro runs to get the new Arche Compensator mod for Luna. So fun haha.
I think to make it fun, the devs need to improve other descendant, so they can grind better. If you have bunny, you will always use it for majority of the grind. And they need to make some mission have better spawn rate and location.
The thing about the drop rates and why they feel so bad is more about the presentation of the drop rate opportunity than the actual drop rate.
We get ONE chance in how ever long it takes to get the AMP we want and then its RNGesus on which item we get from the AMP. Rinse and repeat.
TFD is a looter-shooter, not a horde-looter-shooter. There are no hordes to blow our way through where numerous opportunities within the horde have a 6% chance to drop a wanted item. Big difference.
80+ executioners and 40+ dead brides, not a single ult gley code drop (6%)
I'm just farming for gley code too. Most got it within 30. I'll let you know how many it takes me.
I might start a Bad Luck Anonymous group XD. You definitely got be beat on bad luck though, 80 attempts puts you at top 1 percentile bad luck
1st try...
I got it by accident
I have yet to see Mid-Air Manevuering after so many tries
"MapleStory and Bubble Fighter (2010-2021): Nexon changed the drop rates for premium items without informing players, leading to a significant fine of approximately $8.85 million by the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) in 2024 (pcgamer).
Sudden Attack 2 (2018): Nexon was fined approximately $875,000 for misleading players about loot box drop rates (pcgamer)."
I feel that since they’ve been caught twice there even better at hiding there malicious content. The fine they received was not that high compared to the money they made from deceiving the community.
Please let me know your thoughts 💭
We're gonna be getting to the bottom of it with TFD on the experiment I just dropped here on YT, you should come join and help figure it out!
th-cam.com/video/dZ1ovT6psVg/w-d-xo.html
Hopefully we can find out how they're hiding it in the experiment we're running!
@@markstjean8622 Since it's free to play they can do anything they want with drop rates. You only pay for Premium content or Battle Pass cosmetics.
So this is why bouncing around and doing different missions typically results in better drops. Makes so much sense. Thabk you for this!
Honestly, it shouldn't. I think there could be something odd going on. This is why I just dropped the community experiment here on YT. You should come and join in and help us figure out what it is that Nexon is doing:
th-cam.com/video/dZ1ovT6psVg/w-d-xo.html
@@MrLukium Oh absolutely! I'll start recording data this evening, this is an extremely interesting investigation.
For the majority of the players, this isn’t their first Looter shooter. And I and others are complaining because we know what a 25% drop rate should feel like. This game is NOT performing like it should. And since Nexon has many patents on selective drop rates with a poor history of abuse, I’m leaning to the side that there is some artificial manipulation of the numbers happening.
I hear you. I'm super annoyed at being on attempt 30+ trying to get a 6% chance item. But the math doesn't lie... could there be some funny business going on? Sure, but in my honest opinion, I think it'd be substantially more noticeable
@@MrLukium For example, last night i farmed 3 out of the 4 pieces needed to unlock a decedent. I got those pieces actually way easier than I expected. Until I got to the last piece needed. What was supposed to be the easiest piece at a 38% drop. After 25 tries, I still don’t have it!!!!
If this happened to me only this once maybe even twice, sure you can say it’s in the numbers. This happens constantly in this game, that to me isn’t in the numbers. Maybe I’m just the most unlucky person in the world. Idk
@@cbirdman confirmation bias. I got 3 Ult Gley codes while farming for Luna's 38% drop from Amorphous 68. While yes in that instance it looks like I'm extremely unlucky (or lucky), my overall odds throughout the entire game on everything I've done is probably very close to what the shown drop rates are. It took me 37 tries to get a 10% drop for Ultimate Viessa but I got 5-6 Energy Activators during the process. The entire process of getting Ult Viessa was around 20-30 hours of total playtime. Supposedly Ult Viessa is one of the easiest Ultimates to get at least compared to Ultimate Gley.
It took me 5-6 hours to get all 4 parts for Ultimate Gley.
@@Cert1f1edM1dget I understand all that, but that is not normal. The game is set up in a way to do that on purpose. One has to be very naive to believe there is no funny business happening especially given the devs track record. Not sure many understand the mind games and to what extent these games have been designed to make you want to spend money.
@@cbirdman Observer Bias
In addition to my other comments. Nexon has said the global drop rates are in line, which I don’t doubt is true. However, this doesn’t mean that they aren’t manipulating those numbers at the player experience level. For example, they can give 50% of players a 1% drop rate for a specific item and the other 50% a 51% drop rate for the same item. This would have a mean of 25% globally, so they wouldn’t be technically misleading players but adding to the lengthening the grind. This is very simplistic and in reality would be much more granular, driven by an algorithm. This would explain experiences of people getting very lucky and also very unlucky at the same time.
So if you poll of a large number of people, the drop rates would likely fall into line globally. You would need see if there is a significant grouping of people within that poll experiencing both good and bad luck with certain items.
In addition, it has been found that Nexon owns patents for Dynamic RNG that do this exact thing and pushing people to spend money. The question is, does the community feel this is ethical?
Yeah I think I said something to this effect in another comment. I'm working on an experiment that we can test for certain possible parameters to see what might impact the do rates. Stay tuned!
Not having a pity system KNOWING how probability works, is nefarious in itself.
I agree especially when everything is so overpriced. I'm not buying your 50 dollar ultimate character I'll just stop playing the game if I'm one of the unlucky ones having to do countless runs.
@@SpeakHerMusic was able to farm all descendants on my 300h of gameplay, best to farm if you have friends to farm with imo.
Warframe did it and didn't tell anyone about what percents they even are. You don't need a pity system. Go farm stabilizers
@@fogz that is your luck, some of us don't have that kinda luck or time.
the game is very easy, it won't need Pitty system
It's refreshing to see someone actually take time and offer an in depth look at the how and why of the thing. As a content creator that makes TFD vids, it's frustrating to see the same types of videos over and over again getting gobbled up by watch time, and they don't offer anything substantial. Great job, and I hope you'll do more.
Thanks! I appreciate the feedback. Yeah it's definitely frustrating when people just complain about a thing without explaining the underlying issue. I'll definitely be making more videos, though right now I'm working on a large non-gaming video because of some things that popped up that I thought were worth the attention. That video should be coming up over the next couple of days
I still say they monitor what you have in your inventory crafting, tracking things you’re talking about in the mic etc. it is extremely strange how everyone in your group just happens to get the piece you always are hunting for and vice versa. It happens so often it can’t be coincidence.
Just brought a friend along to the first try of Dead Bride to see if I can get Luna's transcendent mod - it dropped for her, I didn't get it in the next 6 kills and gave up.
Listen, for the past week me and my friend I’ve been farming with 99% of the time get the EXACT same material from outposts, it can’t be coincidence
I wouldn't go as far as to say they are listening to your conversations lol but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a system in place that lowered the drop chance of the item you viewed recently to farm when you check where it drops on the map.
Yeah I helped a friend get patten 111 and we ran that outpost over 50 times. He got 2 and I got 13. He had another drop that was 32% and kept getting the 6% drop. After 20 tries he finally got the 32% one he wanted. It's just random and frustrating sometimes
I swear on everything good and holy I have been screaming this since it's release, as a Warframer I know what drops should feel like and with TFD as soon as you target something or they see that you only need one more part the game actively stops you from getting it and if you talk about that part or once you done that same level a certain amount of times they really lock you from getting it.
Very well explained. Great job. Keep posting more videos like this. I truly mean it !!!
Now for some clarity with real world math…
When something has a % ( drop rate ) it is ALWAYS based on (x) chances out of 100 or x/100. Which means if something has a 10% likely hood you should get 10 out every 100 attempts or 1 out of 10 attempts or 100 out of 1000 attempts. You can do all the fancy math you want but it comes down to the basics PERCENTAGES ARE BASED ON X/100 no matter what. This is a mathematical law.
If a game uses any different math IT IS NOT A PERCENTAGE !!!
Everyone playing this game knows the stated PERCENTAGES are not even close to their stated percentages therefore they are not using x/100 so they should not state it as a percentage
If they took the percentages away people would not be so upset because it’s not so much the failure rate , it’s people know subconsciously they are being LIED to and that’s where the anger comes in !!!
So to clarify… PERCENTAGES ARE ALWAYS BASED ON X/100. PERIOD !!!!
If not x/100 it is not percentages. Period.
Everything you said here is correct, but I think there's one thing that's missing. That percentage only applies accurately over a very large sample size, the size that no single player will ever experience. For example, I'm willing to bet that if you take any single amorphous material that has a 6% chance for energy activators, that across all players who have opened that AM, that the actual rate of times that an Energy Activator dropped is extremely close to 6%, probably with an error rate of less than 0.001%. However, for any single player, it's entirely possibly and in fact more likely than not, that the number of times that they will get an energy activator 6 out of 100 times is fairly low, at least until they have opened somewhere in the vicinity of 1500-2000 of the same amorphous material
yup exactly
I play looters and have my usual rotation of looter games installed at the ready.
But after TFD i said let me go back n play the ones i gave up on and see if i like the experience better than TFD.
I reinstalled Outriders Division 2 and Anthem.
All 3 felt better especially Anthem. You dont have to like or pick Anthem but i do suggest going back to ones you quit and compare the experience of them vs TFD.
I just need No Mans Sky and Space Marines 2 and im straight.
Oh yeah how could i forget the still king and creator of looter shooters Borderlands will be realesing part 4 real soon. Idc what yall say about the story i get it. Handsome jack was hard to replace but good riddance.
The gameplay of BL3 was crazy and i was terrified as a borderlands fan that they might not be able to top the gameplay of BL2 with BL3. Boy was i wrong.
Nailed it and hit it out of the park.
I hated the story and characters of BL3, but the gunplay was absolutely top notch!
I wish crybaby youtubers hadn't killed Anthem... one of the best games I ever played!
Omg the work here,as a Engineer,I deeply appreciate your dedication to explain this to the General public.
Glad to get a 👍from an engineer :)
Great video, seeing the differences visually in graphs was really helpful to visualize the distribution. Personally i think the store to trade in extra materials could be the solution. ie. Trade in 100x other blueprints or parts from amorphous drops, and get a voucher. You can then trade that voucher for 1 amp drop of your choosing. It would kill two birds with one stone, getting rid of extra mats from fully completed items, and giving a mitigation system for the high end of the bad luck spectrum.
Yeah, either a trade system or a pity system is desperately needed. I think this "bad luck" problem must be one of the main reasons for player count going down.
Just wanted to drop some quick key points:
1. I think the most important takeaway from the video is that given a sufficiently large playerbase, setting up a 6% drop chance without some kind of mitigating system, it's like "sentencing" a substantial number of players not to have fun:
for 6% drop chance this is about how many attempts will be needed to get the item sought after:
1 in 100 players will need ~74
1 in 1,000 will need ~112
1 in 1,0000 will need ~149
1 in 1,00000 will need ~186
1 in 1,000,000 will need ~223
This is why I believe in some kind of pity system. I have a few ideas on how they could do it without a pity system, but I just don't see them doing it. For example, it would be cool if every Amorphous Material had a "Luck Bar" that fills up each time you open it until you get the lowest chance drop rate from it, with each increase in the bar increasing your chance to get the 2 rarer drops. Imagine something like every time you open an Amorphous Material it's like it gets infused with a bigger level Shape Stabilizer. Who knows, what do you guys think?
I will say this right now, If we get a pity system. We WILL NOT get a trading system. The whole reason for the trading system is to ensure there is some safety net for players. If we get both, the in game shop will not receive any buyers whatsoever. There's no reason for a company that is as profit hungry as nexon to provide both of these safety measures, (or at the very least in my eyes very unlikely). I hope I will be proven wrong though.
@rattango9819 eeh, I think they can still implement both. But the things that you can get from the pitty system will not be tradable.
Warframe did exactly this. You can trade Primes(Ultimates) with other players for premium currency, but there's no pitty system for Primes. On the other hand, Lich Weapons are not tradable, but there's a pitty system for it
I spent 4 to 5 five hours farming for Ult Valby's last piece at 10% and I finally got it... but in the process, I received 11 Ult Bunny parts...the grind doesn't bother me because the RNG generator to me is similar to a roulette wheel in gambling....if you know about gambling...losing streaks are real.....I've seen red or black sometimes not show up for 30 spins in a row on the roulette wheel and that is at a 50/50 chance...so losing streaks are real...the only way to stop a losing streak is to get away or take a break.....
@@rattango9819 You can get both. They do not have to make the trading system work for what we already have. But instead only for people who are in your current group for that run. They have mentioned an in game shop to trade in stuff we can not use to remove what we do have. Like Lepic catalyst when you are playing as Lepic. I do not recall if they will be modifying the loot table to not include obtained results. The future is unknown until it isn't. It really isn't fun spending 9 hours of repeated failures.
I thought of a similar solution, but much less refined. I thought it would be a good idea to drop half of everything in the pattern at once after a set amount attempts. For example, 50 attempts will give you "the more likely half" and 100 will give you "the less likely half". A bit of a see-saw reward system. Also stabilizers should make it guaranteed chance of getting the higher rarities, while dropping the lower rarities to zero. I get lower everytime, and I rarely get stabelizers in the first place, why punish me for getting lucky? A huge problem with this game right now is getting my hopes up after 50 runs of a single pattern and getting something useless.
Thank you for making this video, truly. As a simple dude, trying to do the simplest of things, all this complicated math just goes over my head, however, i do understand one thing, it just doesnt work like that in this game.
Great video! I use basically same CDF formula, but using 2 events, 1st be chance of getting amorphous material and 2nd chance of getting desired item from that material. Joint probability is just product of those 2, and if you want to see only one layer of probability, set one of those to 100%. Answer is final probability of success given number of attempts. So I farm until I get 20-50% final chance and then go spend it. Doesn't help with drop rate, but makes you feel subjectively more informed and a little less frustrated.
That's a really great idea and also more or less what I do as it gives a sense of "scale" for the effort if you will. Like it feels helpful to know that I have to run an activity X number of times to have a Y likelihood of getting the item I'm looking for.
I appreciate you taking the time putting this together, I’ve been so frustrated. I have the worse rng luck. for those that remember Ghallarjorn in Destiny 1, I was one of the last few to get one a year later. Watched a couple of my raid friends get 3 in a row.
Yeah. I'm glad destiny changed over the years to be much less reliant on pure RNG. It was one of the main reasons I quit playing it back in the day. I have played it again recently and it felt much more rewarding. I hope Nexon will change things soon
Thank you for the tool and information.
After grinding and getting the full roster of charecters, it had settled on the number 24. So far, I've gotten every character within that limit.
Let me borrow your luck lol
Ive been trying to get 1 piece for yujin I've burnt 80 or more animorphis mats and still havnt gotten it but ended up with 20 of every thing else lol
This probably right. I was fumed by how unlucky I am with the Bio Lab drop rate. Finally the RNG god blessed me on my 20th run. But that was 20% drop rate, lol.
Now, I am trying to get Luna with 10% drop rates 😆
@@disisme5150I had the exact same experience, for all other characters, including 2 ultimates, I got in less than 20, but Yujin took me 81.
@@mrxcs ya it's a bit rediculous. I'm still after multiple days still trying to get it
Love this video. First TFD content video I've seen with actually good content. I get everyone trying to bash on NEXON but I choose to give this game the benefit of the doubt. I was an original Warframe player and I remember how that game first started and how difficult it was to get certain things, but look how far its come.
Thanks for the feedback, same here, I was a day 1 Warframe player.
I get that Nexon has been in hot water for RNG funny business. But the main thing I've been trying to get across is that two things can be true at once (that they did some untoward stuff in other games without necessarily doing it in this game), and that while there seems to be a substantial number of people, including myself, experiencing bad luck, that this volume of people out of the 10+ million players that the game currently has, seems to fall within the expected range of such bad luck.
What I am more curious about is whether the bad luck is truly random or "modified" by any factors like:
1. Do you get better luck if you're spending more money into the game?
2. Do you get better/worse luck if you put more hours into the game?
3. Do you get better/worse luck by completing activities in different ways (like wiping a boss in seconds vs doing a longer fight)?
4. Do you actually get "forced" worse luck when there's just 1 part left for crafting an item?
These are all modifiers that could be applied without impacting the global drop rate for an item.
I must be a numerical anomaly because it took me 34 runs just to get the amorphous material 25% drop chance, and even after all that I still failed to get the part I needed at 32% drop chance. So I needed to run another 8-15 outpost runs just to fail again getting the piece. I proceeded to fail another 8 times while popping the amorphous mats. This was only one piece out of 4 to craft the item, and you need 5 total to max out a weapon. (Not even mentioning you need an activator 6% and 8 catalysts 10% to be able to run end game pub lobbies. The problem isn't the statistics, it's the compounding probabilities and Nexon locking every stage of progression behind RNG. We need either better drop rates, better stabilizers, or a pity system. Love the video, hate my RNG.
I totally get you, I haven't been able to do nearly as many build videos as I would like because I can't get Activators to save my life... I literally spend 10x the time farming compared to actually working on a build and making a video :(
The way I see it, they're doing the same in this game. There's no way you should do so many runs of something and not get what you want.
No one should have to run something 50 times for one part of something. Especially when it's so hard sometimes for a person to hold their attention enough to sit there hour after hour and not be jaded that their time they're putting in is not being rewarded.
In short, it's absolutely rigged.
I don't think it's really rigged. It's just the nature of probabilities and statistics. That's not to say they shouldn't mitigate it. I honestly am losing more and more fun with the game as I can't make more build videos due to not being able to get an activator blueprint after dozens of attempts.
I guess players nowadays are used to get spoiled with pity system.
The drop rate aren't rigged, it just your luck is shit. My friend need to farm ulti lepic for days while i got all of it bp in just a day.
Agreed it’s just to suspect
I don't mind doing multiple runs of things I use it as a way to level up my characters but when doing the void reactors to get 1 item I'm missing and I keep getting the same item I don't want for a weapon over and over again it gets taxing and irritated I don't want things handed to me but I don't want the same item to keep dropping back to back yo back either
The farm for ultimate lepic might just kill my interest. Like all of you I've been farming forever and still have yet to have lepic code. May it be 3%,6%,10%, or 16% it will not drop😮💨😮💨😮💨😮💨
What i get opening around 600 patterns: Game hate me and RNG hate me too. 0 Energy activator blueprients.
What my friends get opening 100 purple patterns with 3% chances: 2 ultimate characters and 9 energy actvators.
Nice, nexon, nice!
I was lucky until I suddenly was not anymore.
The main thing I'm getting from a lot of the comments is that if you try to do the same exact thing over and over again, it's like your luck goes to hell in a handbasket
Been doing outposts for the amorphus material that has a 20% dropp chance, been getting the shape stabilizer more often than the material it self. The shape stb has a dropp chance of 1,5%. I call a 100% bullshit rate on these droppchances
That’s probability, as how the video explained it.
lol the fact you haven’t realised that your good luck is literally balancing out your bad luck in this comment is hilarious some of you are slow I swear
@@little_error295yea people expecting something with a higher drop % to drop more than an item a lower drop% real dumb. Duuuuh
It's just so weird sometimes. Especially how these patterns seem to develop rather than averages... but yea... it's always possible with probabilities
@@kujop1 to unintelligent to fight out how probabilities work lol cry about it
Amazing breakdown. I thoroughly enjoyed this and I hate math haha.
You articulated my thoughts and then some. IMO us western audiences outside of the Path of Exile cult groups wouldn't want this even if they understood it. There is no feeling of value in a mediocre item costing 200 runs of a boss. The argument that players won't have others to team up in a raid/dungeon shouldn't be solved this way.
FFXIV is a great example of keeping player active in all dungeons by adding better and more incentives to go back and team up. And even the best skins/rewards don't take that much effort. This here makes fun gameplay feel locked behind a gacha scheme.
Thank you! This was exactly the point I was trying to make. Worst yet, at least most gacha games these days have a pity system so at least you know there's no way you're gonna be that one person having to do what amounts to an endless # of runs to get a single item. Like, it's virtually statistically guaranteed that given the number of players this game currently has and the number of attempts at getting items so far, that there has been at least 1 person who either has needed, or who is in the midst of needing more than 250 runs to get a single 6% item.
That's just not fun!
Thank you. I feel a little less like throwing my PC trough the window after not getting my last part to drop in 91 runs. Sure was great to start the same grind with friends that have been running around with the thing for weeks now .
I hope they put something in place soon, whether a direct mitigation system like pity, or trading, or something. Definitely seems like this is one of the main causes of bad player retention
I prefer the telepathic approach, either I click on the item as I'm opening materials or pretend I want a certain item when in reality I want the other item. 60% of the time, it works every time.
Very well done video, you can tell the effort you put in. Ryechew also does really good videos with math breakdowns so I'm glad to hear you give him a shout out. You've earned a new sub my friend, keep up the good work
What annoys me is it's pretty obvious TFD wants to compete with Warframe. Warframe has similar drops and rates, however Warframe has systems in place to mitigate going on long dry spells.
For one, Warframe's Relics, the equivalent to TFD's Amorphus Materials, allow you to pick other players drops when you open them, so if your Relic doesn't have the part you're looking for, maybe another player in your team will get lucky and you can just choose their drop. Hell it even rewards the player who's drop gets picked too.
Then there is acquiring Relics and Amorphus Materials. In Warframe Relics are much easier to obtain as you're not tied to a single activity to try and get that specific Relic, you're only restricted based on what Relics are in rotation, and what planet you are farming. It makes the act of gathering relics much less tedious since you don't have to run the same missions over and over and over which can compound the tedious feel of the drop rates in TFD.
Then there is the fact Warframe has player trading and tradeable premium currency. So if you still haven't managed to get the stuff you want, you can sell your duplicate Prime parts to other players who need them and get the currency to buy the Prime or trade for an equavalent part.
The fact TFD hasn't taken on much of the lessons Warframe learned within the past decade is honestly pretty baffling. I hope the devs can change course before too many people get burned and drop the game, because other than the bland story, TFD is a lot of fun to play.
I think I agree with pretty much everything you said. However, to be fair, Warframe has had a long time to mature and get to where it is now. I was a day 1 player, and there were definitely many bumps here and there along the way. I think that overall, Nexon is on track to make this a really good game, as long as they keep up with listening to player feedback and implementing improvements on a regular basis.
I farm 10 Amorphics at a time , for an item with a 6% drop chance running it 10 times is just under a 50/50 chance of getting it , so far it seems to be ruffly accurate with some parts being a little more troublsome than others but ive eventually got them, ultimate ajax took less than 24 hours and ultimate bunny took less and 17 hours , fully upgrading enduring legacy and naz devotion took about 48 hours, during this time the game felt it was funny to give me 4 energy activator blueprints , long story short sometimes RNG will just hate you
yeah its pretty much fair and balanced. i opened 50+ amorphous for ultimate gley enhanced cells and 30+ for her stabilizer and only got one drop each. i think im done cahsing ultimates for a while. also for the energy activator bp i have opened over a 100 and only got like 2 drops
I have also had absolutely atrocious luck getting Energy Activator blueprints T.T
good video - thanks! I know the math and statistical probability theory reasonably well and this was well explained. I almost always count the number of runs needed for an item to drop. And based on the number of runs that are sometimes needed, it appears I have super bad luck in this game with great probability too many times to be a coincidence. NEXON states that the /global/ drop rate is as listed. That may be true, but I believe they utilize their patent on dynamic variable drop rate on a per player basis to try and optimize any number of factors: for example player retention, player online time, micro-transactions etc. I hope NEXON tunes their algorithms more towards player satisfaction as they have stated in a vague manner, which means retention over the long run.
This could definitely be the case. I was chatting with a friend of mine and was saying something similar even before I knew about the supposed patent.
Would be interesting to get enough players to be able to test this
@@MrLukium It's probably too hard to crowdsource enough participants to get a statistically significant result. It should also be noted that I have experinced some lottery-winning like streaks of good luck recently (co-incidentally enough to keep me interested in playing). I needed High-Voltage for Ult Bunny, which I sadly paid for. So I tried combining 1 red + 3 yellow mods. Got it first try. Then I got two copies on my next kill of Pyromaniac. Others report no luck getting High-Voltage after 40+ attempts at both combining and Pyromaniac. Same good luck getting 4 recent Energy Activator Blueprints. Both the bad luck and the good luck streaks have been extraordinarily tilted on each side of the listed probability spectrum.
And you are absolutely right with the success failure percentages
Thanks!
My tip on farming. Dont keep trying same one of its giving same exact item. When i get the same item more then a couple times i leave and go somewhere else. In my experience if it does it more then a couple times, it will do it multiple more. If its giving different each time, keep trying, itll happen eventually.
It's in your head, you convince yourself that because you leave and come back it will "reset" your luck or whatever. All games with rng there is always someone that says something stupid like that, it's crazy.
@@HuskySansVergogne i suppose. But every time i get same thing once or twice, if i don't stop, i will get it five more times. Rather then going somewhere else and farming.
Down with your superstitious gamer mindset. No no no no no. IMPROVE DROP RATES or I’m not coming back. That’s a bad mindset. Supposingly you open 40 and you get 0. You can’t tell me to go out and come back 40 times just to “think” that it reset the RNG. The game is playing you at this point.
Nexon has a patent for something shady so I'm also of the opinion of the OP. I have better luck when mixing it up than target farming 1 item. The something shady being them manipulate drop rate %s on the fly
I've got some ideas on how we can test these theories as a community. Stay tuned!
What I love is that if I really want an the item that has a 32-36% drop chance I will literally get everything on that Cell, including Energy Activators 2-3x before it will give me that 32% drop.
Makes no sense to me.
Or if i really want a certain Amorphous Cell from an outpost, it will give me the gold mod or the stabilizer before I get the cell.
Same, especially if that 32-36% is an ultimate part.
Edit: it’s always the other 32-36% that drops.
@@shi7595 grinding for that Ult Valby Enchanced Cell and I swear to God I have gotten everything on that Amorphous multiple times over and still no cell.
And of course they tie the highest drop % for the Ult Valby Cell to the 2 most annoying bosses in the game currently if you're not insta nuking them. 🥲
Bro same i want to get the 32% python but i always get energy activator and now I have 37 energy activator sitting in my inventory and still no python 😢
Same. I was just farming piercing light which was 32 %. Got 3 catalysts in a row. Had to open 8 patterns to get a 32% drop.
@@teddyorange7104Wow u r lucky. I have 250 hrs in game most of it is pattern farming, i have gotten only 4 energy activators.
Yes in a given population there will be a certain number of people that will have a bad luck streak. The saving grace is that the system is not truly random, but pseudo-random. Each time you boot up the game you get a different seed, so the bad luck streak technically rotates among the population rather than settling on them. If you are having a bad luck streak, just turn it off and turn it back on again. It literally works for everything.
79 times I went to the executioner to get the improved cells of the super Viessa, it did not fall out. This is a Korean lottery.
That's some pretty bad luck for real!
@@MrLukium i garentee its more than bad luck
Had a weird executioner experience myself. Was farming for an hour executor part from a particular amorphous material that involved me killing executioner on hard. Outta 22 drops I only received 1 part. This piece has a 32% drop chance. I got more energy activator blueprints.
A good compromise to a pity system could be instead to trade duplicate parts (or a number of them) for a shape stabiliser. Nexon would obviously need to specify which one based on the rarity of the item. e.g. trading something that drops from a level 1 material at 32% for a level 6 stabiliser probably isn't a good trade from their perspective. If those things are working correctly it should increase the chance of a preferred drop, and mitigate inventory bloat at the same time.
Yeah I think this could be a good idea too!
A system that lets you recycle unwanted parts into a currency that can be spent at a new vendor to buy specific parts is the best system for games like this. It encourages grinding and keeps up the excitement because you _know_ you're going to get what you're after, even if it takes 500 runs.
It also encourages varied activities instead of just grinding the one thing, because you're able to recycle anything.
Got my like 👍I cant say I have been one of those really bad luck runners... or seen any particularly nefarious drop issues. I got Ultimate Lepic with a total of 9 Patterns... 9!
Then again, an Ultimate Valby piece took me around 30 patterns for one piece, even with some Stabilizers thrown in.
I've had cases of Activator blueprints dropping back to back, and even Catalyst blueprints (15% chance) dropping 4 times in a row on Dead Bride.
On the other side, I've had Nazeistra's Devotion piece drop 40+ times in a pattern farm, and not get anything that I actually wanted, which statistically could be considered as 'lucky' 😅
you're very very lucky
@@MrLukium Apparently so! I just finished 'farming' Ultimate Bunny pieces... 14 patterns in total. Just got the last piece this moment, after two Pattern 99's! 😅
Mr. Lukium, great video, I really enjoy when game content creators explain the math involved in whatever topic they are talking about. I will subscribe to your channel because of your great effort explaining and because you supported your explanation with actual data.
Thank you for this feedback! This is exactly the kind of content creator I want to be. There's few things more infuriating to me in watching content than someone being like "YOU MUST TRY THIS S-TIER BUILD NOW!" and I'm like "bro, the math behind that build says It's line b-tier"...
@@MrLukium totally agree with you, keep the good work and good videos coming.
Took nearly 2 weeks just to get Ult. Bunny. Yesterday, actually got my very first EA bp drop since the game launched. Days to get Luna stabilizers, and many times to get another drop of hers that was supposedly over 30%. And many other times where days pass before I get what I'm going for.
There's bad luck, which I do have plenty of, and then there's straight up something wrong. I personally don't trust Nexon to give the accurate numbers. Data mining from people not tied to Nexon would be needed to convince me there is no rigging. The longer it takes to get something, that percentage eventually drops bit by bit. That 20% drop someone has been grinding days for, is no longer 20% at that point of nearly a week in.
I like the idea that they are implementing a mercy system, but I'd wait and see if it's implemented properly.
No offense man, but I take this video with a handful of salt. Nexon has been caught not once, but multiple times cheating their playerbase, with the most notable being the lawsuit we know about. I like the game, but a month in, and I've barely gotten my first EA bp to drop, alone? That's just wrong.
Even 40-50 runs should not be a thing in any game. Couple that with the rng stacked on rng in this game. Coming from WF, where drop rates are below 5% for some stuff; that says something.
Bunny IS the hardest Ult to farm, though, for sure. The easiest is Valby and the other 4 are in the middle. But I feel you - Ult Bunny was a pain to get
I got my last part for Bunny almost by accident. But it did take quite a while to get her.
Ult Bunny is the only Ult I have... All the other ones have seemed much harder for me
@@MrLukium Yall are getting descendants? I've been farming a few hours a day (4-5h) since release and the only other I have outside of the free one and bunny is Freyna. No ults, just literally 1 descendant. I'm about to quit for good. I've ran 100s if not thousands of missions so far and haven't a damn thing to show for it other than a few weapons.
Just grind more I just got 4 energy activators bp grindin for ultimate bunny lol
i always farm 5 pieces amorpheus then go to the boss/reactor. the most i spent before something i want drops was 23.
Same, I get like 5-10 of them and then go open them
I don’t like that your 6% chance is hidden behind a 5%-25% chance at said 6% chance. Let’s not pretend it isn’t to incentivize you to fork over cash.
And break down the time it takes. Lets say 2 minutes per Outpost (1 minute cooldown while you hit the hacking stations, plus 1 minute wiggle room + boss kill). So every 8 minutes you get 1 of the 0dd number AMs. 6% chance means youll get 1 in 17, so if you prep up 17, now youre 136 minutes deep, and you havent even gone to crack the codes. If those codes are Collosi and you have a good solo killer, lets say 2 minutes per run, for 34 + 136 = 170 minutes, or 3 hours. For 1 part. If you need to crack the thing on a Void Gate, farming the mats and then opening the gate to kill the boss is easily 5 minutes total, so thats 85 + 136 = 221 minutes, or 3 hrs 41 minutes. All in all, not terrible... but thats for 1 piece. So 4 pieces at that rate and a person who gets 1 hour of play time a night will spend ALL of their playtime for 2 weeks just to unlock 1 character.... then you have to wait 2 days for the character to craft.
@@xalxika insanity!
I practically don't do Strategic Outposts because of this. I usually run the Hard Mode infiltration operations instead. Funny enough though, players doing the outposts seem to get much better luck with the drops from them, so go figure 🤷♂️
I was so lucky today. In the space of about 4 hours I got all the ult gley drops. The past few days I have been really lucky unlike the previous few weeks when everything was a chore to farm!
yeah it seems to vary wildly
Very awesome video. Been a long time from a stats class and i couldnt explain this concept to my buddies
Glad you enjoyed it!
This is a great video, thank you. I think the drop rate is bugged, not rigged. There *seems* to be some sort of issue where you get into a loop of getting the same item over and over and over again. It's like the random number gets cached or something. When I'm opening AMs I don't get the sense that there is an even distribution even over the high probability items. For example, if there are two 38% items in an AM and I open it 10 times, I would expect to get about an even distribution across the three "buckets" (38% #1, 38% #2, other #3). But, I don't tend to see that. I tend to see the same 38% item 10 times in a row. I have had so many 10-12-14 streaks I can't be that lucky. Look at your inventory. You will have huge piles of certain items.
The issue with a bug like this is that cumulative probabilities over the population would look normal. Your massive streaks of one item would offset my massive streaks of the other item and the developers would conclude "working properly".
Anyway, thank you again for the thoughtful content.
I actually think there could be something to this, it's just really hard to tell since I'm just 1 dude, and almost any distribution across a number of attempts is technically possible.
For example: is it really weird that after farming 077 I've gotten twice as many blue beetle blueprints than executor blueprints even though they have the same drop chance? Definitely.
Is it impossible (or even that unlikely) that 1 player could experience this distribution across the tons of players playing the game? Not really.
But again, I totally agree that it can feel that way. I just wish that Nexon would release the data for global drop rates across the entire player base like they alluded to a few weeks ago (Don't think it's gonna happen though) and even if they did, due to their unfortunate track record, there's definitely going to be a substantial number of people who will reasonably not trust their numbers.
Why do you think they don't release the data for global drop rates across the entire player base? Like you said, they said they will but still nothing, do you think there's a reason behind hiding these data?
There's been a tendency remarked on by TFD players, that we keep getting things we already have rather than what we don't have (and are trying to farm). Seen particularly when farming with friends, how one friend already has an item the other friend is trying to farm, the the player that already has the item gets others of same, etc. Maybe its a player bias, maybe not.
so what i heard is that your chance of faliure lower with every try AND your chance of success lower with every try. Do both eventually zero out with enough tries and create a paradoxon wich spawns a black hole infront of your screen and eats reality? because thats how it feels like trying to get ultimate gley parts..
Your luck isn't really changing. The key is that there's a very high variability in the number of attempts needed to succeed in getting the item you're looking for with a pretty high likelihood of needing well above the average number of tries
Ok, I do feel a little better after this video about not getting a drop after over 100 attempts. Thanks for breaking this down, I'm new to looter shooters and it was driving me crazy trying to figure out why I couldn't get something.
Glad the video helped, and I'm sorry you're one of the outliers all the way out on the 100+ attempts. Happy to see you being a good sport about it and sticking around. Hopefully they roll out a new system soon so others don't have to have this kind of experience.
@@MrLukium Yeah luckily I have alot of patience, and I kinda like grindy games. Indeed they should implement the pity system like you were saying. Oh and just finished watching your skill power vid too. Thanks again! Definitely subscribing 👍
This video made you feel better? He just told you the more you try the less success you’ll have.
@@kujop1 Yeah it did, the reason being is, he just explained that grinding a mission till your eyes bleed trying to get something, has diminishing returns. So instead of wasting my hours doing one mission over and over, I go do something else.
Basically he's saying that if you don't get in on the first chance you're not going to have a higher chance if you keep doing it you're not going to get a higher chance it's going to lower a chance so it's better to do something else that has the same thing that you're looking for at a higher chance each time go back to the same one that you've done after you've already completed the other test for the other chances you had
Not entirely 100% what I was saying, but in spirit, yea. If you're having really bad luck going for 6% items, honestly, might as well go for something else, because otherwise, you could be in that sub 1% of runs that will take 75+ attempts to get what you're looking for. Unless you don't mind the grind of course, there's something for everyone. But if it's getting unfun, just go for Non-Ultimate/Catalysts instead of Ult/Activators until Nexon releases their updates system.
tbh that’s how my drops work for example i was farming Sharon one mission 20 times in a row and literally nothing i gave up and switched to another piece for her got it in 3 tries then switched back and got the other piece on the 21st try it’s happened soooooo many times for me just switching to another pattern or just going after another piece then coming back and i get the one i was struggling on
I deleted the game yesterday im so happy now i can play a game not a full time job
Hopefully we'll get you back! Check out the experiment I just started, who knows, we might even get some drama depending on the results!
So my take from the video. Farm Randomly and often to get better rng for lower percentage drops.
That's definitely what I'm getting from the comments so far!
First off, I'll say this isn't meant to be taken as a criticism to your video or you personally. This was a very well done video with some exemplary math.
Also, thank you for explaining exactly how rng works, because most players think that the more you run an activity, that your chance increase instead of actually decreasing.
Unless you can see the inner-workings of the code these are all assumptions because you don't know exactly which kind of algorithm they are using for their rng.
in your example you used a 4-sided die, while still being 25%, it's based of a total subset of 4, so you have a total of 4 possible outcomes, 1,2,3,4.
If the algorithm they are using is based on 100, you can see how your chances of obtaining that 25% declines exponentially, because the chance for failure INCREASES exponentially.
Combine that with the fact random number generator algorithms can be based on what ever total the coder chooses to use.
What if its based on of a total 1000 or 10,000???
I would have to say that the algorithm has to based on at least 100 or 1000 because of some of the drop rates that are displayed in the game, 5 and/or 6% for example wouldn't be achievable by anything based on less than 100.
The oddities that come into play are the ultra small drop chances, like 1.5%, which typically are only achievable by an algorithm based on 1000 or higher.
The reason for this is rng algorithms only deal in "integer" or whole numbers, (1,2,3,5,13, etc.) they don't produce "fractional" or mixed numbers, (1.5, 2.6, 4.3, etc)
So either their algorithm is based off of 1000 (which would explain why drop rates are so abysmal) or the algorithm is based on 100 and they are doing some weird code voodoo to produce the fractional drop rates somehow.
Either way, I love this game and I hope they implement some kind of "bad luck protection" into the rng, other than the new "modified" implementation that they stated.
I'm not 100% sure I understand...
Surely, if the stated chance is 25% and they code it against 1000, then 25% of the 1000 outcomes, or 250, would result in success, otherwise, they would not be able to claim it's a 25% chance.
I do agree that there could be additional things going on here, just not what you described. For example, it's entirely possible for the devs to have written the code such that the overall chance stays at 6% for a given item, while simultaneously tweaking it for individual players based on difference scenarios, like for example, it could be the case that if you're looking for the last item to craft an item and that item you're looking for has a 6% chance, that the actual chance becomes lower, while for players that are looking for it for the first time get a higher chance - again, all the while maintaining a global 6% chance.
This video is amazing thanks for the hard work! You manage to explain complex toipics making them sound easy. Keep up the hard work pls there is very few people like you un yt producing this high quality content
Thank you so much for the positive feedback! I'm really glad the video was able to make this sound easy, as I remember struggling with this topic back in the day!
Look yall keep saying this without definite proof it's simple you have a 3% chance drop rate congratulations you have a 97% not to get it I came from warframe there's things in that game that have a 1% chance drop rate 😅 but that being said these people saying 100 plus runs I'm calling bs on that unless your running a mission drop chance because it's competing with 4 other drops you'll also need to look at what your farming if your farming a 10% drop on a boss it's drop chance I believe is weighted lighter than running a void reactor with the same drop chance is going to be weighted towards the 3% and 10% drop chance for example I was running a void reactor for ult lepic code 10 relics 6 straight runs I got the 3% drop [extremely lucky] the next three we're the 30% drop unlucky and on the last one I got the code so the drops are correct the issue may be your farming method the only part that gave me issues with 60 runs is ajax ultimate spiral if you have legit ran 100 plus of anything in this game you're a statistical unicorn 😂
there will be some 100+ runs given the size of the player base. They just announced that they reached 10,000,000 descendants. Statistically, there should already have already been a few 200+ runs
1. Allways track the amorphous material not the thing your looking for
2. GTA rules apply - if you have it youll start getting it more
3. You need a code or weapon part find what else is thier and want that more.
If you stand on the rock to the left of the boss in the void mission, he just stands there and doesn't move. He'll still do the electric tether but if you're far enough into the game to be farming these, then it should do 5 or less per tick which would take FOREVER to kill you. So just stand there and shoot until he goes immune, then get right back up there, makes it nearly free on any decendant. He actually only does the tether on his 2nd damage phase cause if you're on the rock and start shooting as soon as he spawns he'll not move from his spawn at all and won't do it, but as soon as he's immune and you drop down it starts. If you run out of ammo when farming it just let him kill you akd respawn with full ammo again.
Good video! Nexon needs to increase the drop rate based on how many times you run the activity to prevent anyone from having to run an activity more than 3 times. 😊 Also, increase the chance of a stabiliser. I now do not farm anymore for 3 or 6% because I know it will be painful if one does drop while farming something with a higher drop rate all well and good. Although that can be annoying when you're farming for a 10 - or 20% drop and the 3% drops. Will they actually do anything tho?
I honestly despise the stabilizers, mainly because I seem to almost never ever get them. And then the rare time I get them and use them, I never ever get the 6% item lol. It's like Nexon is just trying to make fun of me 😁
I have a question
Is the math completely unaffected by what else is on the roll?
Example:
Item
A. 6%
B. 15%
C. 15%
D. 36%
E. 36%
Yes, each of the items will have their own geometric distribution. So, the distribution for A will be different than B, which will be the same as C, with D and E also being the same to each other. Now if you look at another AM with a different loot table. Say 6, 10, 20, 32, 32, then the 6% distribution from item 1 will look the same as the 6% from item 2.
So, the only thing that matters is one outcome's given probability, not the other underlying probabilities.
when I try get to get enduring lagacy blue print 10% in 20 times but i got 6% mushroom 4 times , all I think is the game trying to not give you what you want, its the next gen AI
So you're the one take my mushrooms huh?
oh, I see what you're saying. Pretty long video to tell me I'm not getting that drop.
Just trying to be thorough
I find it so funny when some one makes a video of this nature and try to use math , Meanwhile back in Nexon aka TFD Drop Rates Math isn't Mathing. Most Looter Shooters have been like this for years now. No point trying to explain RNG when even RNG doesn't know what to do at times. No point trying to say this or that. Most people know how RNG is. RNG will not give what you want if you are aiming to get something you really want. Only when you decide to aim to get something else, RNG decides to do the whole "Oh you wanted this. Here you go." It happens more often than people want to admit. I lost count how many times I got the same thing over and over again. So please stop trying to convince people this is why you don't get what you want. I have over 300+hours in this game. And I played many types of games in the Looter Shooter Genre. Each game has some type of RNG, Destiny 1 had one of the worse RNG to deal with until TFD took their crown. Warframe has the best RNG if you get a crew to run the same Relic. Moving on TFD is drop rates are BS and everyone knows this. It's not even about bad luck, cause every Pattern has a number of the chance you will get something and all of it is wrong. Any 38% chance is actually higher and any 3% is actually lower. If I keep getting the same 38% more so than anything else something is wrong. Especially if I did a runs over 30 times. You don't need to be a math wiz to notice this.
Every youtube person is trying to convince us that Nexon is the good guy & all is fair because "math" proves it.
Not at all, I'm even trying to run an experiment to find out exactly where their tweaking of the RNG is.
You can check it out here:
th-cam.com/video/dZ1ovT6psVg/w-d-xo.html
The biggest issue to me is that most people just want to complain, and not enough people want to help figure out exactly what's going on
@@MrLukium Yesterday,, I can tell you right now something isn't right with the RNG, was aiming to get the Ult Gley Stab from a reactor. I must have used over 30 92 patterns mind this is a span of two different days. Not a single drop, so I got annoyed, and went to do Ult Ajax's with only 16 patterns. End up getting it on the 6th try. Even did normal Ajax with 4 patterns, got that on the third try. RNG is off on the Ult Gley part reactor. Also my friend and I did the Ult Gley part reactor together the second time I went to do it. He had the same 17 pattern 92 plus shape forms for it as I did.. He got nothing as well. And here I thought Destiny 1 had bad RNG, TFD is speeding ahead.
To be honest i don't trust anymore on those % the game gives, at least on Warframe you sometime with a low % and still get the blueprint in few attempts, here took me 30 for the python nanotube.
Yes Nexon lied twice on percentages. The %s in game are a lie.
I seem to have ok luck with descendant BPs but for weapons and Activators I have no luck 😭. You come join the experiment I just dropped here on YT, we're gonna be testing for a few variables to see if things are rigged
The problem is most people see 5% drop chance and think oh I just need to do 20 runs and I should have it.
After 20 runs, only half of the people will have gotten it, half did not. After 40 runs, 25% of the people still didn't get it. People think it's very unlikely, like one in thousands that they did 50 runs for a 6% drop and not get it, but in reality it's like 15% of the population that is in the same boat.
Yep, that's a pretty good summary of what I'm trying to get across. And then when you have a game with 10 million player base, the number of people that that 15% represents gets pretty substantial, and especially those in the button 3-5% who are seeing 50+ attempts will become the loudest voices, and next thing you know, it sounds like that's happening to everyone
All I know is that I opened 4 materials using shape stabilizers and got the 40% (dropped down 16% from stabilizer) all 4 times. Then opened 2 without and got the 6% back to back.
I've ran the Void Shard in Sterile Land trying to get Mental Focus General Rounds 85 times. It's a 5% chance for drop rate. According to the graph, the chances of me NOT getting it by now is 1.35%.
THERE IS NO FREAKING WAY THE DROP RATE IS 5%. I refuse to believe it.
But thank you for the video and graph.
Thanks I knew about this but did not understand the math. now I understand the math but my head hurts. I want to scream this makes no sense but then I remember that the universe is under no obligation to make sense to me.
I think the problem is assuming that the drop rate chance carries over or stacks based on
your attempts. I think the drop chance is calculated at 6% or whatever the drop chance # is, ever single time you attempt a run. Your odds don’t increase or your chance not to get the item doesn’t decrease.
Your chance on each attempt is in fact independent of other attempts. The point of the video is that it is also true that the vast majority of runs will not end with a drop out of every 16.67 attempts (6%), despite that being the average. The attempts themselves vary wildly, with the most frequent result being 1 attempt, and some runs taking crazy long, well above 100. Chance doesn't work in normal distributions (where the majority of the outcomes tends toward the mean), it works in geometric distribution (where most outcomes tend towards 1, but with a really long right tail - needing well above the average for a lot of runs)
Great Video. Helped change my perspective a bit. I am definitely cursed by rng. The "I would hate to be the guy that takes 223 attempts." It's me...I'm that guy lol.
also in this game is even lowered because you need a 5-25% chance of the Amorphous material and then you get 6% chance per material to get what you actually want
Also, perhaps for future math lessons, use the 1% or 2% chance for the data because those are the items people want and why people watch the video. I think. 6% is low, but seeing the game say the chance is 1% is disheartening.
Every item in the game can be gotten with 6% chance as long as you farm it in hard mode (which is a lot easier imho). That's why I used 6%
I seems like once you have 3 parts the chance for the last part drastically drops to make the grind longer, doesn’t matter what the drop chance is
Awesome work! Thank u so much!! Keep it up!
Thanks!
everyone focused on pattern/mod drop rates, when the real demon in the room is farming the exact gold sub stats you want on reactors, components and guns 😂
does the drop chance probability reset if you try get a drop from a different loot pool? Like trying different anamorphous mats across different bosses to get an energy activator blueprint for example, would the probability still get lower and lower the more you run even though its different loot pools?
I don't think there's such a thing as a "luck" memory... and again, your drop chance isn't actually going up and down with each attempt. Your chance of getting a 6% item is always 6%, the main point of the video is to understand that when it comes to chance, most of your overall runs will either end quickly, with less than the average, say 16.67 attempts for 6%, or substantially more.
I don’t understand people, it’s still RNG. Just cause something has a 20% drop chance doesn’t mean you should get it, you still have a 80% chance to fail. I do have bad days which patterns and I have good days. I have better rng with farming certain transcendent mods, so at least my rng is good in that. Every single transcendent mod I got was a 2% chance to drop and it never took me more than 10 tries on a single one. You people need to look at your W’s and stop just looking at your losses, negative mindsets.
I think the key, which I tried to convey in the video, is to grasp the distribution (even if it comes across nerdy/mathy). Most things we do in life tend to fall in a normal distribution, which really doesn't work for chance. If you really get what I'm trying to say in the video, then you end up with better expectations that will more closely match your experience and should at least make you feel less "cheated".
Luck just sucks at low chances and given enough tries (like with a large player base). someone will be the poor sap that need 100+ attempts at 6% chance (in fact, there will be quite a few of them)
I really believe that there is something in the code that knows when you need a last part of a weapon, i have tested it over over and over again. i have played a lot of looter shooter and nothing compares to this game, sorry i dont trust them.
Me too. Korean games are quite predatory
There's definitely quite a few people that seem to experience this "last item bad luck" thing... starting to think there might be something to it
I think my biggest issue is locking some of the AMs behind a specific character and mechanic. I love the flavor of using Sharen for bonus loot, but to straight up block a mechanic behind a character is weird. At least with Enzo I can do the vaults without him, its just easier with him.
I just hate that Outposts have a % chance to give the blueprint. I much rather they had done something like the infiltration operations where you can get a guaranteed chance of double drop, even if the timer had stayed at 5 minutes
every roll is independent. The chance to fail is not effected by previous attempts (endless options are removed with each attempt)
I think the system for using duplicate items should be a way to buy shape stabilizers. Turn in weapon parts for a weapon stabilizer which will increase the weapon part chance on any of your Amorphous Mat. Same goes for Descendants and Enhancement Materials. 20% increase would be nice.
They need to create RNG Drop System with "Bad Luck Protection" for every item in the game for those people who simply have bad luck.
I casually got the 3 pieces of Lepic so figured I'd go ahead get the code real quick before farming for ultimate. 5 days later still and no Lepic Code lmao
Check out the experiment I just dropped here on YT, we're gonna be testing for this! Even better, participate as well!
So my 652 of 092 pattern runs mean that my RNG is dog shit and you just explained it to my autistic ass thank you
I'm with you... Been trying to get Energy Activators for a new build video but no go... I might just need to become a Math TH-camr instead XD
@@MrLukium you can just grind irl 😂 and buy it in shop
@@MrLukium Meanwhile I dopped 2 mushroom and 2 doughnut recipes earlier farming 33% parts
Honestly if you hav run 652 of them do something else, there's multiple ways to farm every item. People say Nexon's patent might extend play time due to skewing results, I've had my best results when confusing it
@@Jabarri74yup ran 96 40 times for ult gley with no luck. Ran 102 twice and got it.
Well, the math here is completely correct, the issue that the community is facing; however, is still completely irregular. For example, in the scenario shown here with the 6% chance and 100,000 attempts, there was still those several attempts that took 220ish runs. Whilst that is possible, and does happen those few times, in all actuality what the community has been experiencing woul be as if (I don't know the exact numbers) instead of those several 200+ attempt streaks, there were several hundred people in that same exact 100,000 runs that all required 200+ runs... which does completely break the actual factual and mathematical probabilities shown here that are correct.
For exame, the well known Freyna drop chance. Use the formula. It is a 20% drop chance, yet there are hundreds... possibly thousands that have run 20+ runs and still not gotten the drop... and that is just the vocal portion that took the time to complain. How many people had the same issue but just either didn't care enough to be vocal, or straight up don't know, so don't say anything.
Thing is, that low probability of not getting the part after a large amount of runs is vastly unproportional to actual probability chances.
I think I agree, especially after the bulk of the comments. I'm putting together an experiment that should settle down a lot of these questions
@@MrLukium Awesome, I can't wait to see the experiment, especially given how well educated you seem to be and how well made the video was. You are a great creator.
200 runs for 082 for bunny code, then when going for regular lepic code, got 4x ult gley parts. In a row I legitimately was looking into if it was a rigged system, but because I got 4x ult gley parts (6%) I am a statistical outlier on each side of the spectrum.
Yep, that's where I fall too, and absolutely hate it. I'd much rather have a closer to average outcome XD
My friends and I keep being in the unluckiest 2-3%! I had to make 33 runs for a 10% and my friend yesterday had to make more than 20 runs for 20% chance. Crazy! Totally not rigged 🙂
I mean... someone has to be at those low rates. To really know if it's rigged we would have to sample a large, unbiased (can't just sample the people who are having bad luck) and see if the reality matches the expected numbers (so pretty hard to do - especially in trying to get an unbiased sample). Judging by the reports I'm seeing though, it doesn't seem like it's rigged, even though I am in that 5-10% worst luck bucket myself
@MrLukium I also believed it wasn't rigged until it happened again on the next ultimate the next day and then to my friend on his ultimate the day after. What are the chances of being in the 2-3% consistently?
Edit: for the record, we are very dedicated to the game and are on our last few characters
@@MrLukiumyou hear everyone complaining about the same thing yet you’re refusing to acknowledge that something is wrong. People that play other looter shooters are telling you this game doesn’t feel right. Go watch other videos about this. Is everyone just crazy or what
And again it happened last night. I did outposts over and over. I got 2 materials out of over 30 runs (25% chance). I went to Albion, reloaded the outpost map, got 7 out of 8. What are the chances of this happening. And you might say it's extraordinary but possible - but why are extraordinary things happening every day
Variable rng people welcome to nexon
The RNG isn't variable. That's not what I'm saying in the video. There's just a larger than you might expect variability when it comes to the range of likely number of attempts needed to get an item at 6%. 40+ attempts are not going to be that rare.
Pure conjecture
Oh i never said you said it, im asuming this because the nexon history of doing this and at this point shure feels like it.@@MrLukium
@@da_001yes it is.
I have farmed everything in game now all ult descendants, weapons, all F2P. Worst luck I had was amorphous 99 for Bunny, 10% drop took me over 50 tries. But contrary to that I had good luck as well, Ult Lepic in 3hrs, Ult Gley in 4hrs. After lots of play it feels pretty balanced. The worst luck and hardest grind has been reactors because you cant roll them and they can roll dead stats.
That's pretty lucky. It took me close to 50 AM to get an Energy Activator :(
Drop chances on this game is trash. I have 40 gley spirals and still haven't got 1 bunny spiral after tons and tons of trying. Devs must fix this nonsense. Ppl have jobs we can't spend 1000 hours on 1 piece
For me personally to make it feel better when I get something I wasn't looking for, I only use patterns that have other thing I wouldn't mind getting.
As a example day you want I descendant piece but in the pattern you could get a energy blueprint and also a weapon piece you want. Now can you still get something you dont want sure but it raises the chance of getting something you dont mind getting.
This is definitely a good strategy!
I call that coping strategy
Actual drop rates aside it seems like the law of averages is thrown out the window. I was farming drop (A)@ 38% and yet received drop (B)@38% ten times in a row. If the two high percent drops have the exact same drop rate, how did I not receive a single other drop during ten attempts?
Law of averages is only accurate in very large sample sizes. On many ways, that's the point of my video. If you get 1000 items from the same AM, then yeah, your experience will be very close to the average. But if you're don't just 10, then there's a pretty good chance that your experience will be less like than the acetate because it only takes a couple of outliers to make your numbers seem abhorrent abnormal
The drop rate will be the end of this game. 35 times grinding for a module then going to a reactor and beating it 35 times to get the same items 34 times is pure shit.
This is all great but let's give a couple of vivid examples from my experience.. Recently farmed 100 and 101 materials. Their chances are the same - 25% having made 30 visits I expected to get closer to 15 units, about 7 of each, in reality I got 5 101 and zero 100, you can calculate what the probability of such an event is... A similar situation with the transformation of amorphous materials, sometimes an item with a 20% probability does not drop even after 15 attempts, but an item with a 6% probability drops almost every 5-6 attempts.
i farmed 47 amorphous material 44 mutant from Old Mystery. i used 46 of them before i got the Ultimate Valby Enhanced Cells Blueprint. which is a 6% drop rate.
Ouch, that's bottom 7% luck :(
I would love to know why when cracking amorphous it favors one 32% drop over the other one a majority of the time. At about a 1x 32% to 10x 32%. Both at 32% you would think the majority of the time the two should be close in number.
You know, I've been wondering the same thing. I've been watching as 077 has given me 14 Blue Beetle and 7 Executor... I do wonder if there's something going on with their pseudo-random generator mechanic
@@MrLukium This is probably wrong but I suspect that the numbers they show us are the % of players that have a higher chance to get the items and at points during the day it secretly assigns %'s to our accounts. Would explain the 3 activators in a row and a buddy of mine has a surplus of 20+ activators looking for a few 20% drops. 🤷♂️
Edit: I only suspect this because if I open 10 amorphous and don't get what I need I wait til the next day and usually get it first try. I don't believe the listed %s ^_^
@@MrLukium Man, I got 22 Valby parts before getting my 1st Python one. Both were common at 38%. I feel like if you repeat the same Colossus over and over, the game eventually locks on one of the common drops and it starts giving you that one over and over. I eventually finished building 5 Pythons, but I have 68 of that same Valby part sitting in my inventory. Def something weird going on.
Anyway, amazing video with great information and presentation. You deserve more subs, and needless to say got one from me!
Do outpost drop rates feel horrible for anyone else after latest update? Going dry 10+ runs (for both AM) in a row with sharen infiltration feels wrong
I have that shit to
@@brandonsaerens3673 pain
It comes in spurts. I was farming them with my wife last night and in our first 10 runs i got 5 of the odd number, she got 0. It really sucked because i was farming them for her, not me.
It's super random for me. Sometimes I'll get a bunch of AM from the outpost in a row, then I won't get any for a super long time.
Shape stabilizers have such a low drop chance that to me it would make more sense that they allow you to pick one of the items that can drop and boost just its chance by say 5% or 10% for each one used so that if you managed to actually save up say 10 of them you could just pick what you want to drop at a 100%, or even have the stabilizer just be 1 item that can be used on any amorphous rather than just a couple depending on which one it is.
I have a little over 150 hours myself so far and don't have a single ultimate Descendent, and for the most part have only been trying to get Gley. That said I have maybe spent a total of 10 hours of that time doing things that would lead to getting Gley and have only opened about 20 amorphous materials in an attempt.
Shaper form material is rigged to the core. Supposingly you get the + sign. But instead, 5 shaper and I get instant 32% NO CAP.
Yeah, I feel like Shape Stabilizers as they are implemented are borderline useless when you factor in your "improved" chances from using them vs not having them at all
The only factor you haven’t consider the drop chances refreshes every time when you enter different zone since there is mutilple servers and endless zones
I never claimed that the independent chance of getting an item on a given try changes. The point is that the distribution for independent successive attempts at a given rate will fall on a geometric distribution, meaning that it's statistically likely that a substantial number of people will experience "bad luck," such that for example, there's a 6% chance of needing at least 45 attempts to get an item with a 6% drop rate. It's not that you get locked into that pattern at some given point. It's that just like on average you will get the item on the 17th attempt (16.67 average), on average, players trying to get an item that has a 6% drop rate, will, 6% of the time, need 45 attempts.
From what I have read this very company was sued by the Korean government for lack of transparency of the drop odds. They was drop manipulating for the purpose of frustrating people into purchases.
With that in mind do you honestly think with the amount of people getting frustrated with that very issue it is beyond the possibility of them not really stopping previous practices?
I think your right because I’ve opened 189 pattern to get an energy activator (6%)
That's absolutely nuts! But yeah, statistically, some of us are bound to get stuck with up to 200+ attempts
How do you shoot more orbs with Lepics skill? I'm at the end of normal, about to fight Hangedman, and I can only get 3 or 4 shots.
check out my build video here, it explains it all:
th-cam.com/video/9OHZW6JuZ20/w-d-xo.html
@@MrLukium Thanks man