The HP Craps Betting Strategy: High Percentage, High Probability, High Performance!
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.ย. 2024
- Here it is! My Don't Craps Betting Strategy that I use on random craps tables. This is a great strategy to use as a Qualifier and while keeping your bankroll intact till you get the dice. Stay tuned for part 2 where I teach Mrs. Money $hot this strategy and have her do a live roll out.
"May the Dice be Nice".....HCS
Consider becoming a member on our new Patreon page and received HCS member perks like advanced access to our videos before the youtube release at / hawaiicrapsshooters
For all your Hawaii Craps Shooters Clothing apparel and accessories online at www.hcsstore.com
Follow us on IG and FB @Hawaii Craps Shooters
If you have specific questions for me, you can email me at hawaiicrapsshooters@gmail.com
For behind the scenes HCS footage go to Chef Dice and Mar-nster TH-cam Channels.
/ @chefdice
/ @marnstertv
Seems like a good strategy based on the come out to protect the DP $60. Costing $21 to protect it. Once a point is established, it's game on and hope you hit some 6 and 8's. But if you don't and you seven out...no harm, start over. You wait for a good hand and then you can start adding to the box numbers. If the point is 4 or 10, I would bet a hardway just to reduce the odds against you. There are many ways to play the game but it pretty much depends on the way the dice are giving trends. If you are charting the tables and 6 and 8's are not showing up, it might not be a good bet but, you never know! And that's the beauty of the game! Thanks Bryan for explaining the HP Betting Strategy!
Thanks Dan. Great points. As a good player you watch what the table is giving. The key to playing this game is using the right strategy at the right time. Thank you.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters So true Bryan, seems like when I go to the tables, it's natural for me to want the dice to conform to how I am betting or playing? I usually have it backwards...lol. We all need to be in the moment and follow the dice. They alone will reveal the outcome of our bets. I still like the strategy and will use it next time I am on the felt! Thanks for putting this together for us.
@@dansearle4728 LOL It's not only you Dan. I myself get caught many times using the wrong strategy at the wrong time. Just part of the game and finding out what the right strategy is what makes this game challenging and fun to play. This is just one strategy of many that you can have in your tool belt. Can't win if you are just a one trick pony. LOL
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters You got that right Bryan, a one trick pony only wins once in a blue moon! And those are not good odds. Keep evolving Bryan, you're doing a great job of keeping the content coming and giving us a chance to see you guys at the tables in a real live craps sessions. Not many are doing this and thanks to you we can all play along with you! Mahalo!
@@dansearle4728 My pleasure Dan. Having fun bringing content to all of our awesome viewers like you. Thank you for supporting HCS.
Ive been using this strategy for a few months now and it has been very successful. When using this strategy I may switch from the don't pass to the pass or vs versa depending if the shooters get hot or cold. Some people never switch it up but i compare it to energy. Energy is always moving, what comes up must come down.
You got it Mark! It’s important you pick a side after you get your foundation. That’s where you actually make the real money.
Chef dice and g money are my super boys
They are great players
I was just starting to run out a very similar strategy, but I didn't have the come out bets so I appreciate seeing the whole process!
You’re welcome. There is a part 2 to this strategy. Stay tuned.
A good general rule is that if you feel like you need to hedge a bet, you should just make the naked bet smaller and keep it unhedged :)
I failed to mention that the $21 hedge is built in with the $60 DP because I only bet $36 $18 on the 6 and 8 so a total of $57 hedged by the DP $60 so really it’s not a loss and a good bet since 7’s combined with the 11 is a 21% of rolling on the come out.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters sure. The only reason you hedge (whether anyone realizes it or not) is to reduce variance. All of the positive aspects of a DP bet are given up, and then some, if you hedge. But people like to hedge because they’ve seen or experienced a time when they played DP and 3-4 points in a row were made (or come out pass line winners).
I’m being too loose with the math here but if you pay $5 for the right to ensure you can have a bet with a $2 expected value, you’re basically guaranteeing a -$3 loss each time over the long haul. And if the unhedged bet is a -$2 loser over the long haul, you’re guaranteeing a larger loss by hedging.
@@pjstrong6385 I’m not fooled. My point is literally that you shouldn’t hedge.
You really need to show the worst case scenario as well, just to be honest. Point, make, you lose 60+21. On the four/ten you lost 60+120+21. Wipes out a lot of small profits. You can increase/decrease variance but you can't change the odds in the long run.
Thank you Jack. You are 100% correct. Every strategy has its weaknesses. The craps game still all a gamble. Observing the table and the shooters is key. This is just one strategy that I use on a cold table. If the table gets hot and start hitting points then that’s when I switch to another strategy.
I pretty much have the same strategy when I go dark side when I am playing with unknowns I always pull my place bets down after 5 rolls and collect if the 7 hasn't come yet.
Smart move Ryan. 👍
Yes sir, that’s my strategy too…
No bad!!! I will not play it because of the hoping the 7!!! I’ll play positive or negative not half in don’t work or make me money… When I play the DP, I play the 11 for my Hedge then after the point
It is established I play a DC bet so now I have to 2 -D points stablished. If the point is a pair- like 6/6/10/4 , I’ll play that hard way for protection in my D, thank you and I can wait for your roll out with moneyshot
You’ll like the next video. Stay tuned.
Wow, this seems like the perfect strategy for my cruise in a couple of days! Going to Crapsee to practice and practice!
Thanks!!
Practice practice practice
looking forward to live roll out on this and maybe color up page could do a roll out aswell
Thanks Scott
I place $50 on the pass $25 on the dp so that you’re not losing $21 every point. Once the point is established lay the odds at an increment you’re comfortable with. You can also place the6,8….
Thanks Rob
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters - love your work.
I was surprised you didn't take a hard 4 for 30 when you took 2x odds on the $60 don't pass. With all the hedging in this strategy, why not reduce your losses to a single combo
It’s in the next video. Lol
Can't wait for a Table Full of Players running this Strategy at the Casino.... 'Poor Stickman'!!!!! hehehe. I feel sorry for whoever runs stick at the HCS Practice Nights!!! LOL ;-)
I’ll play it with Alex and CQ when he does his DPPressure. Lol
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters hahahaha
Money Shot, I like the strategy. It gives you a solid chance to stay alive through some choppy and negative shooters, and take advantage when that big roll comes in. I would not consider this a dark side system, because when you win with this system it will be because the shooter rolls a lot of box numbers…the DP bet is really just a hedge. Thanks for sharing.
Yup. This is more like a hybrid
How one goes about “taking advantage” of a Pass Hand/storming box-point Monster is critical; prop bet hedge systems, not so much-however novel.
As an alternative, consider staying “alive through some choppy and negative shooters” as you put it, by insisting the shooter qualify himself, either by completing ONE established point, or by hitting a come-out natural, before you even bet.
Be patient!
Stampeding your session bankroll out on the layout- before that action is justified-impresses tourists and beginners, but that’s it.
Thank you for another fine presentation, it looks like a good strategy. When I add the number of winning combinations with six(5) / seven(6) / eight(5) it totaled 16, not 21. Where am I missing the other 5 combos? Thanks again
You’re right. My bad it is 16. 🤦🏻♂️
The difference between the Pass and Don't pass is .05%. We do you want to bet against the shooter. It;s a community game. Be part of the community.
Thank you XMan. I also once felt the same as you do about the dont players but after more understanding of the game my perspective has changed. The dont player is not playing against you. Both you and him are still playing against the casino. He will never make you lose money off of your rack. Everyone’s own strategy does that. I look at it now as the dont player is just trying a different strategy that could work in his favor or not depending on how the table is. Answer this. If you were at the roulette table and you bet on black. Would you get upset if I played red?
Cant we just put $10 on the dont pass bar until the point is made...then increase it!
You cannot increase a DP bet
So I do like the strategy on principle. 35% of the DP seems steep for any hedge … it is like just laying the 5 or 9 - same thing (pays 2 to 3). I guess if you are going to play odds it might be worth it a little more. Just some food for thought.
Yes but I forgot to mention that the $21 is built into the DP $60 hedge
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters I think you did in a way. You said that you brake even if you PSO. It just looks like you can't make money unless you hit one of the place bets (i.e. 6 or 8).
@@timmelton856 yes you are right but if they hit the early 7 no harm but if they somehow miss the 6 or 8 in the meantime then yes you don’t win anything.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters Thanks for the replies 😎😎😋😋
It looks like it is a fancy qualifier but you have to just avoid the point - not really the dark side play. Hey that's kewl (I do like that)
Unfortunately; it also looks like you need to collect those place bet winnings 4 times ($21x4) to cover the risk of the hedge to brake even (if the point is hit).
I am looking forward to you live roll for sure.
If they hit the 6 or 8 why not bet the hard whatever the point is rather than just the hard 4 and 10? Thanks for the strategy I will try it tomorrow!!!!!!
Thanks King for watching the second video. 👍
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters just got back from the casino bought 500 cashed 1035 tipped 85 the system worked pretty well the only slight tweak I made was first two rolls after come out when the table got really cold I was up and off with my first two place bets
@@kingsniz5916 wow nice win King. Love it! Thanks for sharing.
You didn't show what happens if the 9 comes right back you down $81 I believe in giving people every senerio so if someone hits the point right back you are behind $81
I'm sure everyone knows there's holes in all strategies. The more important content is to show how the system works. There are other videos that show how it doesn't work but this isnt one of them.
Everybody doesn't know and he showed every other way it could lose except that one some people come here to learn everything
@@coryjohnson9081 sorry I missed it.
those 3 hops are they just the same as 15 on any 7 at 4/1
You get $80 on the 7’s hop 15:1 and $75 on the any 7 4:1. $5 more.
What is the house edge on the hop bets?
13.8%
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters The house edge on the 12 is 13.89%.
The house edge on the Hop 7 bets is 11.11%.
Been following you for the past year, and you've done a number of smart strategies. This isn't one of them. The math you're using makes no mathematical sense and does Not add up correctly. Doing a 6-7-8 strategy can give you 5+5+6, which is only 16, not 21 as you said in the video more than once. Playing the 6 and 8 means the six or eight will hit LESS than every 3 rolls, and since 36 is closer to 40, closer to every 4 rolls before a 7-out loss of the 6 & 8.
With 7 of 12 shooters out by roll 7, you'll have 1 hit, and maybe a second hit, for the majority of the shooters, Maybe.
"Typical" 1 hour sees 12 shooters. Of those 12 shooters, 2 will toss come-out 7's. That means 10 of those will not be a 7, and 11 is only every 18 rolls, or every 1 1/2 hours, which in this 1st hour won't hit. You're gonna have a 12 come out only every 3 hours, and you're putting down $12 every hour, or $36 to chase $30. That math makes no sense.
You're saying that by putting down $21 in hedges, and taking that $21 as a loss of $210 every hour, to "save" the $60 + $60 of those 2 come-out 7's, and that "somehow" $210 is smaller than $120. All you did was waste $90 by ignoring this basic math. Now do that for 3 hours--you're $270 short. Add in the $6 extra you lose every 3 hours on the 12 and you're $276 short.
Jacob at "Wager Me This" says over and over and over, because folks "Miss" this critical point: you Never have your 7 to be worth nothing or next to nothing. Your 7 Must be worth more than what you have light side. Since this "strategy" you created "loses" $21 in hedges, that's taken outta the 7, and your $60 seven is now worth $39. Then you put down $18 & $18, for $36, to be barely under the $39, which is not valid: the value of your 7 is too near Zero. The "value" of the 7 needs to be as much, and should be at least what you get in winnings from any number.
You claim that your single win of $21 on your 1st 6 or 8 "hit", you now got back the $21 you lost in 10 of 12 hands, makes no math sense. Losing $210 Every hour to "save" $120 makes no sense. Even giving you the second hour, when an 11 come-out hits, gives you $180 lost versus $210 in hedges--you're Still $30 short.
These "extreme hedges" wastes so much attention and energy and money--$210 lost, versus $120 without hedges, your "focus" got lost and you're acting more worried about losing than you are focused on winning. Both Waylon and Jacob say the same thing: "Scared money never makes money." This is why they say that.
You wanna do Jacob's favorite hedge? Lay the 5 for $70--it'll pay you $50 each time a come-out 7 hits (yeah $20 short/hour), and hitting every 9 come-out rolls, that's about $93 cost per hour. Your loss is $93 x 3= $279, which beats the come out loss of $120/hr x 3 hrs = $360: yeah $360-$279= $81, minus the $20 loss x 3= $60, leaves you $21 ahead every 3 hours, versus $276 short--or you're $297 ahead doing the Lay 5.
You're right. It was just a strategy back then. Thanks for the feedback.
There is no reason to bet on the 12 and Don't Pass at the same time.
In this strategy there is a reason The Hopping 7’s and yo falls when a 12 is rolled. The $1 covers that bet.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters Hedging a hedge bet doesn't make any sense. There is way too much house edge on those bets.
👌
Thanks Dusty
You reduce the value of the DNP to $39 and there is the "hole" - this strategy costs 4 times more than not hedging -- send me an email and I will send you the math.
True, however that cost is built into the hedge. If you compare the amount loss on a come out 7 or 11 vs the $21 cost to hedge over a certain amount of rolls, I believe the hedge will cost less with the 3 to 1 ratio. You can email me at hawaiicrapsshooters@gmail.com Thanks for the comment.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters
But the effect moves past the come-out . Following your logic, for every 100 points established, you win 59.4 @ $39 and lose 40.6 @ $60
@@old7PSO Thanks for the email. I replied back.
Too complicated …..
Just pound the 6-8 with place bets and go with it…
I agree. Lol
Can you roll this strategy out?
Next video I’ll have Mrs MMS roll it out.
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters that would be awesome. Personally I think it would do better without all the come out hedges. 75% of the game is played in the point cycle, 66% of the come out rolls end up on a box number. It would be interesting to see two bankrolls one with c/o hedges and one without played out on the same rolls of the dice. Mahalo!!!
@@louvoodoo let’s see how it does.
@@louvoodoo I failed to mention that the $21 come out hedge is built into the DP $60 bet as a recovery being that I only use $36 for $18 on the 6 and on the 8
“High percentage” is what you’re paying in excess House Edge.
Different strategies for different goals
No such thing as Don't Pass bar.
What do you mean?
@@HawaiiCrapsShooters The bet is "Don't Pass".
"Bar 12" means "except 12".
They really should put a comma in between those phrases.
Or they could say Push 12.
@@jimklemens5018 yes. That’s what I meant to say. Lol 😂
Dude that is way complicated
Yeah that strategy sure is a complicated one. LOL
Shoot and explain! Shoot and explain . And show us how much you win, how much you lose. I dislike this video 👎
Coming up in the Next video. Sorry for disappointing you Tai.