@@alicankarakaya2770 When he says "Scott Hatterberg" and they reply with "Who?". Means he's not famous, he's a nobody trying to get on the field and win. Kinda like the Oakland As. Gutted and left to die. Scott had nerve damage. Nobody wanted, and he was hoping for a miracle. Kinda like the Oakland As
Gotta love the old man at the end who understands his place. Billy is the GM. He doesn't answer to anybody except the owner and God. These scouts are just there to advise him and then Billy is free to choose whether or not to take that advice.
A lot of subtext here. Billy and Pete (two relatively young men) are surrounded by a table full of elderly men who represent the old way of thinking. In the last scene that they all sat together they told Billy that their years, wisdom and experience were all that mattered here and that Billy essentially needs to shut up and let them do their job. They’re meeting here again to discuss the same subject, but this time Pete is present and he is the Talisman that is going to allow Billy to turn the table on them. They are IMMEDIATELY suspicious and fearful of Pete. The real tension is brought to bear through the realization that what Billy is really telling them is that they are obsolete. If Pete can singlehandedly create a winning team out of inexpensive castaways with some math formulas then all of their “experience”, “wisdom” and “knowledge” is meaningless. They’re being phased out. The eldest of the group with the hearing aid who “knows his place” has just accepted this fact and is ready to pack it in. The others aren’t going to go down without a fight. Fantastic scene.
No nuance, bro. Scouts can scout past 50. Players age out of the game much earlier in life. This guy they’re criticizing isn’t applying for a scouting job.
FYI, in real life, the head scout of the A's was completely on board with what Beane was trying to do. He only left the A's because he got sweet job offer from the Rangers.
“I don’t see it”. Hes trying to chase what every other team is doing, but doesn’t realize the deck is stacked against him in that his team literally can’t afford the players he wants. And EVEN IF they find a diamond in the rough in terms of scouting a great player, the wealthy teams will just buy him up later a la Giambi and Damon. They unequivocally had to change their approach but, in his own words, he simply didn’t see it. It’s easier to think inside the box and rationalize your failures rather than risking doing something new and being ridiculed if it does not work out (or, in the instance of Bean, being ridiculed despite it working out).
Underrated? So how is it ranked? 6th best @ MLB 4th all time @ Rotten Tomatoes 3rd all time on IMDB 2nd @ Esquire. Variety lists it on their top 16 of all time (specific ranks not given), the list includes documentaries.
What's double funny about it is he was a catcher who got on base. His OBP was 378 in 2000, and in 2002 when the movie takes place it was over 400 for a few years granted in small sample sizes. Underrated player would have been a perfect A.
It amazes me how the scouts are having such an issue with bringing in players who don't know how to play first base and that one of these players needed to be taught while earlier they were getting a hard on for another player who has a hard time hitting the ball and were defending their pick by saying they'll teach him how to play against big league pitchers.
This is why one of the best ways to convince someone of an idea is to make them think it is their idea. Obstacles become opportunities sometimes depending on who is pushing for the thing.
@@Paul-vf2wlAnother thing that came to mind. I've never seen this movie and have just been watching scenes. When I first heard of David Justice, I was thinking of an older guy like the teacher in the movie, "The Rookie," was. When I later saw how he looked, I was shocked at how these old scouts were talking about him.
I've watched this movie many times...I just don't get tired of it. I don't think at this point I can be a Spoiler but in the off chance I could be...I find Billy Beane's Character (Brad PItt) Baseball experience before becoming GM a Real Driver of the Movie. and Philip Hoffman(RIP) Character so Good. It is really a Good Story.
Idk if you are into reading but the book is really good, I had seen the movie twice when I first listen to it. It's really interesting story to really see all the specifics and get the back story of Billy too. If you like the movie I would highly recommend giving it a read or listen.
What the movie fails to mention because it would ruin the mystique behind “money ball” are all the great players they had already that were found not by analytics but by the scouting department.
Fair enough. However, how many great players did they STILL have when this happened? As I recall, this new approach was a response to losing their core talent pool.
The hearing aid gentleman had it right: Know your role. He's the boss, not us. Most people don't get that. They're a dishwasher but acts like the chef. They're a teenager but think they're running the home. And when their ego can't handle that fact, they act like dude at 4:33.
Billy needs to explain the innovative strategy to get everyone onboard. You cannot run any organization without having everyone on board and contributing to the strategy, otherwise the team will rip itself apart, which is what Billy is encouraging with his style. He does not have to be everyone’s friend, and atta boy nice guy to do it; he simply needs to take some time to explain the As current status (no money no hot talent no chance to advance), the new strategy (Pete’s card counting) and how they can execute on it and how everyone can contribute to this.
The fact that this movie is so interesting in a sport I don’t care about and the fact it’s all just backstage politics is remarkable from the filmmakers and actors involved. Would love if they did this for the WWE.
A friend of mine was a top college baseball player and played in the minors. He told me that most of the guys there were just as good as the guys that got promoted but that most of the guys that made it to the bigs had people in the organization pushing for them.
Great scene. In real life the director of scouting . Grady Fuson was on board with the new direction of the A's. He left the A's voluntarily and later returned to the team.
For context: The Oakland A's had no money as an organization, they couldnt afford big name contracts and as a result had to play with a budget. By getting players who were the best bang for their buck using SABRmetrics they could prioritize players who get on base, because you cant win a game off slugging alone.
Billy's player selection tactics : have both the MVP and the CY Young winner on the team but don't mention them in the movie pretend it's all about the 1st baseman.
Yep the book and the movie left out that they had too level and good salary pitching like all winning clubs do. Also, only caring about getting on base and not defense cost them in the playoffs every year
You're backwards projecting things that nobody could have known at the point represented in the movie. Zito was a very young pitcher and there was no way of knowing he would win the Cy Young and have a career year. 2002 was the high water mark of his career, too. Same with Tejada; no way to know he would win MVP and without all those dudes getting on base ahead of him, no way he gets 131 RBIs.
@@plaidchuck That point was made in the book: Beane is on record saying that playoffs are just luck and the only thing that MIGHT actually be predictive of playoff wins is good pitching. Also, 4 of the 5 starters the As had were young dudes on tiny salaries of less than $1million per year. Pure moneyball pitching staff. Also addressed in the book is that you cannot really disentangle defense from pitching.
@@ourvaluesarewhoweareinadem4093 Zito was 17-8 in 2001 and he had 205 strikeouts. Tejada had 30 hrs both the previous 2 seasons just go away with your lack of knowledge.
It doesn't matter. They won MORE games without Jason Giambi and without Damon than they did, with them. They lost their best two players (probably) and still got it done. They were in 2002 what Seattle was in 2001 after the Mariners lost everyone. Now, maybe that is because the AL West is far "weaker" than the East in 2001 and 2002 (I'll buy that) but they still got it done. And even if there was no defense on the field and that cost them in the playoffs, at least they MADE the playoffs. That is the whole point. What difference does it make if you have the #1 defensive team in all of baseball if you do not make the playoffs because you don't score enough runs or your pitching is just... meh? The last time Oakland won the World Series, they had the highest payroll in baseball. This owner does not pay. He likes to profit from the team. So they have to scratch out wins by being creative and inventive.
I love the writing to show the language of the guys that don’t know really how to pick players. “We need people that can play.” “Ball explodes off the bat.” Billy is right. They are telling nonsense. Look at the data.
The one thing this movie doesn’t quite spell out (which the book does) was *why* they were targeting on-base percentage. It was there in the context - OBP was undervalued - but you’d have thought if Billy Beane really was making his case to someone, especially old-school scouts, he’d explain it a bit better. Or let his assistant explain it. I understood it, but I think a lot of people came away thinking they just had this weird obsession with walks. Walks, and working the count, are definitely good, but if OBP was properly valued, the A’s would’ve targeted something else.
My favorite line: "It's not a discussion". Just like the older scout said, Billy's the man, he doesn't answer to these guys. In other words, if these "experts" at the table don't agree with the new direction, then they can leave. Billy's the boss, and has made this decision, so get in line, or get out. None of those guys gets out.
Not just about buying runs. You have to buy *more* runs than the opposition buys. And if you are allowing more runs through errors, the runs you're buying from the player aren't effective. So sure, they might be great at getting on base... but if they're giving up bases and worse, runs, because they can't play defense... the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Similar yet not perfectly analogous to the Robinson Crusoe fallacy.
Exactly, it was a fundamental flaw of Moneyball. You can get a guy who gets on base a lot and gets you runs when he's at a bat, but if he's a defensive liability on the field, he is going to give up just as many runs to the opposition.
Undoubtedly Peter Brandt factored in fielding percentage when calculating run production/OBP.....Giambi was hardly a Gold Glove fielder at first and Damon, although a great center fielder, never really hit all that well for them.
Moneyball was about buying undervalued stats and ignoring overvalued ones. At that time (and still) defense was overvalued, as was speed and base stealing. OTOH OBP was massively undervalued. So yes, you're "buying runs;" however, technically you're buying "net" runs, and that does factor in defense.
No, these guys absolutely were and do - traveling around the country, observing, talking to people. It just so happens they weren’t buying into analytics (yet).
They travel around the country and gather their own stats based on players. They could be in LA watching a person practice in the morning then have to be in Texas at night to watch a person of interest play in the game. Lots of sleepless nights and jet lag, away from families for weeks at a time. They absolutely work hard. Just cause someone doesn’t use a shovel everyday doesn’t mean they aren’t working hard.
@travisvanalst4698 I guess I see a difference between working and being inconvenienced. Sitting and watching players play is not working. Traveling a lot is tiring, and it's a hassle. I'm not saying it's easy for them. I just don't see it as work.
It wasn't just player selection it followers up with players playing up to par, David Justice and several others stepping up as individuals and as a team also. I rec this movie to Ha Baseball players at my Hs job. They're receptive and have a cheater awareness afterwards. I'm not just a Uniform
The movie doesnt really get into why the A's were doing so well the season before.. the already had a lot of talent on that team before the movie even starts
Think this is a great illustration of how defective conventional thinking of that time, dramatically underrated OBP as a stat for team offensive production and winning. In basketball, 3p% was grossly underrated for a decades after the 3p basket came into play as well. The “eye test” would overrate the impact of guys like Carmelo Anthony back then. Inefficient “scorers” who think their worst guarded attempts were better shots than a teammates corner 3z When most games are decided by less than 10 points, understanding the true expected values of shots (on D and O) is critical. Especially when even a .333 three (pretty mediocre) has same expected point value as a .500 two (what great player average on a midrange pull up).
Just noticed at 2:58 (and again at 3:08) the name on the yellow tag in the background when they are discussing Scott Hatteberg says "Pratt C". That's gotta be an intentional Easter Egg, right?
I always found it funny he has these computers full of data and then in the meeting they're just talking about OBP. I tell myself it's just so they hope the old timers will understand one simple thing but Im never sure because they don't say it.
Absolutely ridiculous that a major plot point of this movie is not just replacing Giambi's bat, but his GLOVE! He's literally one of the worst defensive 1Bs of all time lmao, like it would be unimaginable him being anything besides a DH in today's game, but back then there was the stupid idea that there was such thing as being too good as a hitter to be DH, and this movie is supper to be all about moving past stupid ideas.
add - inevitably who was right. the scouts only dream. the GM though gets stuck with the dead turkeys and high contracts pete though is an accountant whom sees through dead turkeys and only sees numbers. percentages are everything in baseball.
Everything in life is about percentages when you think about it. Baseball and other sports just have a lot of the data collected and catalogued so it's easier to analyze than real life.
No way. Always put a catcher a first base if you have to. They’re used to scooping up wild pitches and keeping balls in front of them. At first base, even though they’re in a different stance, they have more time to react to a bad throw or one-hopper. Obviously you would worry about line drives and hard grounders up the first base line, but that’s not nearly as important as receiving throws from the rest of the infield.
@@Bingbangboompowwhamthink of it like a bell curve. Your worst players on one end and the best at the other. Obviously they couldnt afford to get more of the best players. So they found a bunch of middle quality players that were valued low for various reasons. Then they could afford to make the overall team better with those players.
I love this movie, but when the scout he fires says "you're not going to bring in ONE... but THREE defective players to replace Giambi?" Isn't it 3 players for 3 players to replace but each of the 3 is an average OBP? Tell me I'm wrong its the only thing that bothers me LOL
That was the problem with Freddy, he never understood what Billy was doing. Even though Billy had spelled it out for him multiple times. Freddy was stuck on "replacing Giambi"
I don't like baseball at all, and this movie and the Big Short are the most interesting. Math is my weakest subject, but everything here is proof you have to get beyond what's perceived as fact. Math people have the ability to see what others miss. Ironically, I was in transportation for 30 years, and even math people couldn't explain or answer ceretain questions I had. Ironically, math people on the board could. I am learning economics and business Calculus thanks to this and Big Short. I have learned that "doing what you love to do" is a huge lie! Do what makes the most money, whether you like it or not! You will learn to love things you hate, once you find their use. People who love what they do are always broke!!!
Good scene but piss poor leadership by Beane. He doesn’t first explain his strategy to get his team on board. So instead you get confusion and resistance
He was Grady Fuson, a veteran Oakland scout whom Billy Beane did release. However, Beane and Fuson later reconciled and Fuson was hired back a few years after 2002.
Every company has a pen pusher / bean counter who's never done the job the other guys he / she is managing do and therefore has little respect."Billy who's that? That's #####. Does ##### really need to be here? Only works if other co workers know the movie however.
Analytics is fine for building a roster, but it is absolutely terrible for managing a game and has 100% thoroughly destroyed baseball as entertainment. Baseball has never been a worse product than it is now. It is so completely unwatchable. No action. No heart. No game within a game anymore. No risks, which is what made sports entertaining in the first place. Pitchers pitching five innings, even with intact perfect games and a low pitch count and a healthy lead. What a complete and utter waste of time to be a fan in the seats. Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Paul Molitor, Rod Carew and George Brett wouldn’t even get a chance to play in today’s game. This was the beginning of the end.
"Exactly...sounds like an Oakland A already."
Gets me every time! 😂
I like, "Guys! Check your reports, or I'm going to point at Pete". (....he gets on base)
I don't understand what he meant by that.
@@alicankarakaya2770 When he says "Scott Hatterberg" and they reply with "Who?". Means he's not famous, he's a nobody trying to get on the field and win. Kinda like the Oakland As. Gutted and left to die. Scott had nerve damage. Nobody wanted, and he was hoping for a miracle. Kinda like the Oakland As
Pete is my quantitative
LOOK AT HIS EYES
He won a national math competition
He doesn't even speak english!
@@rickysalgado1623 He won the national math competition at Yale! He speaks english!
His name is YANG
Gotta love the old man at the end who understands his place.
Billy is the GM. He doesn't answer to anybody except the owner and God. These scouts are just there to advise him and then Billy is free to choose whether or not to take that advice.
This exactly. He might not understand the methods, but he knows that Billy has a plan, at the very least.
He's been around the longest and has been NOT listened to plenty!
A lot of subtext here. Billy and Pete (two relatively young men) are surrounded by a table full of elderly men who represent the old way of thinking. In the last scene that they all sat together they told Billy that their years, wisdom and experience were all that mattered here and that Billy essentially needs to shut up and let them do their job. They’re meeting here again to discuss the same subject, but this time Pete is present and he is the Talisman that is going to allow Billy to turn the table on them. They are IMMEDIATELY suspicious and fearful of Pete. The real tension is brought to bear through the realization that what Billy is really telling them is that they are obsolete. If Pete can singlehandedly create a winning team out of inexpensive castaways with some math formulas then all of their “experience”, “wisdom” and “knowledge” is meaningless. They’re being phased out. The eldest of the group with the hearing aid who “knows his place” has just accepted this fact and is ready to pack it in. The others aren’t going to go down without a fight. Fantastic scene.
Yeah they work for him not the other way around
The best counter to Billy's thinking was none knowing how to play first base. It was a legitimate concern and worthy of discussion.
"Does Pete really need to be here?"
"Yes he does."
The validation
I love that the guy no one wanted (Hatteberg) clinches the 20th consecutive win with a home run.
And Chiambi, the guy they are upset about losing turned out the be a disappointment.
As a pinch hitter
Yeah, after causing a triple play against his team 😑
The guy who says, “he answers to no one” is a real scout that was at the real table that day in real life.
Not one scout in that room under the age of 50, and they have the balls to say, "Old Man Justice!"
The saggy balls
No nuance, bro. Scouts can scout past 50. Players age out of the game much earlier in life. This guy they’re criticizing isn’t applying for a scouting job.
Brain dead comment.
"you do not" classic.
FYI, in real life, the head scout of the A's was completely on board with what Beane was trying to do. He only left the A's because he got sweet job offer from the Rangers.
This makes for better television.
"Guys read your reports or I'm gonna point at Pete."
How rude 😏
The best threat uttered in any movie ever.
“He gets on base…”
@@kingjbird92
Billy: Do I care how he gets on base? Pete?
Pete: No, you do not.
Billy: No, I do not.
“I don’t see it”. Hes trying to chase what every other team is doing, but doesn’t realize the deck is stacked against him in that his team literally can’t afford the players he wants. And EVEN IF they find a diamond in the rough in terms of scouting a great player, the wealthy teams will just buy him up later a la Giambi and Damon. They unequivocally had to change their approach but, in his own words, he simply didn’t see it. It’s easier to think inside the box and rationalize your failures rather than risking doing something new and being ridiculed if it does not work out (or, in the instance of Bean, being ridiculed despite it working out).
You need to go outside and find a women ASAP!
That only works if it works. It worked. But please take a slice of humble pie.
Forget the box, they changed the game
@@IIISentorIIIYou never read a book in your life?
This is one underrated movie, maybe one of Pitt’s best rolls ever, just so believable , and compelling
Underrated? He was nominated in the oscars, won a lot of awards and it has been named like one of the baseball.movies ofbtbe last decade
It is not underrated at all, it is very highly rated.
Saying shit is underrated is dated, it's played... It's perfectly rated.
Underrated? So how is it ranked?
6th best @ MLB
4th all time @ Rotten Tomatoes
3rd all time on IMDB
2nd @ Esquire.
Variety lists it on their top 16 of all time (specific ranks not given), the list includes documentaries.
Why do so many people say "underrated" to good movies that have solid reviews and top tier word of mouth?
You gotta carry the one.
That always cracks me up, he legit stops to help the guy do the math.
@@magetaaaaaaI fall down laughing at that every time
"dat don look right dat don... Aghh"
"You gotta carry the 1"
😂 Its as authentic and American as it gets I love it
To be fair the best line in this movie is "yeah maybe i can teach one of them"
It's easy, tell him.
Scott Hatteberg.
Who?
Exactly. Sounds like an Oakland A already 😆.
3:09 I just noticed it says PRATT C for chris pratt who plays scott H
It's a reference to Todd Pratt who played for Philadelphia between 2001 and 2005. The C is for "catcher". Still a cool coincidence though.
What's double funny about it is he was a catcher who got on base. His OBP was 378 in 2000, and in 2002 when the movie takes place it was over 400 for a few years granted in small sample sizes. Underrated player would have been a perfect A.
@@mattschiesl3131 Except his salary that year was $650,000. Triple what the A's could afford.
" Check your reports or I'm going to point at Pete"😂
It amazes me how the scouts are having such an issue with bringing in players who don't know how to play first base and that one of these players needed to be taught while earlier they were getting a hard on for another player who has a hard time hitting the ball and were defending their pick by saying they'll teach him how to play against big league pitchers.
Scouts are worthless. Only comparable to meteorologists for how much they get paid to fail.
People say whatever to defend their position.
This is why one of the best ways to convince someone of an idea is to make them think it is their idea. Obstacles become opportunities sometimes depending on who is pushing for the thing.
Playing 1st base isn't hard anyone who ever played catcher would have no problem playing 1st base. It's just movie fiction.
@@Paul-vf2wlAnother thing that came to mind. I've never seen this movie and have just been watching scenes. When I first heard of David Justice, I was thinking of an older guy like the teacher in the movie, "The Rookie," was. When I later saw how he looked, I was shocked at how these old scouts were talking about him.
“Billy, who’s that?”
“That’s Pete.”
“Does he need to be here?”
“Yes he does.”
"Billy, that doesn't look right...."
"You gotta carry the one, Artie."
"Oh, yeah."
Amazing scene. The whole film crystalised here.
Don't you want to quote a line, like everybody else?
2:51 love how he points back at Grady
I laugh when they talk about the guy being a .260 hitter - when that’s doing pretty well in the modern game.
Yeah sadly everybody then was compared to roid heads and corked batters like mcguire bonds and sosa
I've watched this movie many times...I just don't get tired of it. I don't think at this point I can be a Spoiler but in the off chance I could be...I find Billy Beane's Character (Brad PItt) Baseball experience before becoming GM a Real Driver of the Movie. and Philip Hoffman(RIP) Character so Good. It is really a Good Story.
Idk if you are into reading but the book is really good, I had seen the movie twice when I first listen to it.
It's really interesting story to really see all the specifics and get the back story of Billy too.
If you like the movie I would highly recommend giving it a read or listen.
Do you want me to speak? When I point at you yeah.
What the movie fails to mention because it would ruin the mystique behind “money ball” are all the great players they had already that were found not by analytics but by the scouting department.
Fair enough. However, how many great players did they STILL have when this happened? As I recall, this new approach was a response to losing their core talent pool.
jonah: do you want me to speak?
brad: when i point at you, yeah…
The hearing aid gentleman had it right: Know your role. He's the boss, not us.
Most people don't get that. They're a dishwasher but acts like the chef. They're a teenager but think they're running the home.
And when their ego can't handle that fact, they act like dude at 4:33.
Billy needs to explain the innovative strategy to get everyone onboard. You cannot run any organization without having everyone on board and contributing to the strategy, otherwise the team will rip itself apart, which is what Billy is encouraging with his style. He does not have to be everyone’s friend, and atta boy nice guy to do it; he simply needs to take some time to explain the As current status (no money no hot talent no chance to advance), the new strategy (Pete’s card counting) and how they can execute on it and how everyone can contribute to this.
Seriously lol. Just take 10 minutes to explain the insane amount of data baseball provides, and how you'll use it to your advantage.
The fact that this movie is so interesting in a sport I don’t care about and the fact it’s all just backstage politics is remarkable from the filmmakers and actors involved. Would love if they did this for the WWE.
I’d love it if they did it for our government. But then, there would be a revolution when everybody saw what was really going on.
A friend of mine was a top college baseball player and played in the minors. He told me that most of the guys there were just as good as the guys that got promoted but that most of the guys that made it to the bigs had people in the organization pushing for them.
Great scene. In real life the director of scouting . Grady Fuson was on board with the new direction of the A's. He left the A's voluntarily and later returned to the team.
The sum of this movie "because he gets on base"
For context:
The Oakland A's had no money as an organization, they couldnt afford big name contracts and as a result had to play with a budget.
By getting players who were the best bang for their buck using SABRmetrics they could prioritize players who get on base, because you cant win a game off slugging alone.
Billy's player selection tactics : have both the MVP and the CY Young winner on the team but don't mention them in the movie pretend it's all about the 1st baseman.
Yep the book and the movie left out that they had too level and good salary pitching like all winning clubs do. Also, only caring about getting on base and not defense cost them in the playoffs every year
You're backwards projecting things that nobody could have known at the point represented in the movie. Zito was a very young pitcher and there was no way of knowing he would win the Cy Young and have a career year. 2002 was the high water mark of his career, too. Same with Tejada; no way to know he would win MVP and without all those dudes getting on base ahead of him, no way he gets 131 RBIs.
@@plaidchuck That point was made in the book: Beane is on record saying that playoffs are just luck and the only thing that MIGHT actually be predictive of playoff wins is good pitching. Also, 4 of the 5 starters the As had were young dudes on tiny salaries of less than $1million per year. Pure moneyball pitching staff. Also addressed in the book is that you cannot really disentangle defense from pitching.
@@ourvaluesarewhoweareinadem4093 Zito was 17-8 in 2001 and he had 205 strikeouts. Tejada had 30 hrs both the previous 2 seasons just go away with your lack of knowledge.
It doesn't matter. They won MORE games without Jason Giambi and without Damon than they did, with them. They lost their best two players (probably) and still got it done. They were in 2002 what Seattle was in 2001 after the Mariners lost everyone. Now, maybe that is because the AL West is far "weaker" than the East in 2001 and 2002 (I'll buy that) but they still got it done. And even if there was no defense on the field and that cost them in the playoffs, at least they MADE the playoffs. That is the whole point. What difference does it make if you have the #1 defensive team in all of baseball if you do not make the playoffs because you don't score enough runs or your pitching is just... meh?
The last time Oakland won the World Series, they had the highest payroll in baseball. This owner does not pay. He likes to profit from the team. So they have to scratch out wins by being creative and inventive.
I love the writing to show the language of the guys that don’t know really how to pick players. “We need people that can play.” “Ball explodes off the bat.” Billy is right. They are telling nonsense. Look at the data.
Do you know what moneyball is about
The one thing this movie doesn’t quite spell out (which the book does) was *why* they were targeting on-base percentage. It was there in the context - OBP was undervalued - but you’d have thought if Billy Beane really was making his case to someone, especially old-school scouts, he’d explain it a bit better. Or let his assistant explain it. I understood it, but I think a lot of people came away thinking they just had this weird obsession with walks. Walks, and working the count, are definitely good, but if OBP was properly valued, the A’s would’ve targeted something else.
They’re still looking for Fabio.
And mlb is still lustful over avg
Not really a baseball fan, still a awesome movie though
"You Gotta Carry the 1"
My favorite line: "It's not a discussion". Just like the older scout said, Billy's the man, he doesn't answer to these guys. In other words, if these "experts" at the table don't agree with the new direction, then they can leave. Billy's the boss, and has made this decision, so get in line, or get out. None of those guys gets out.
Not just about buying runs. You have to buy *more* runs than the opposition buys. And if you are allowing more runs through errors, the runs you're buying from the player aren't effective. So sure, they might be great at getting on base... but if they're giving up bases and worse, runs, because they can't play defense... the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
Similar yet not perfectly analogous to the Robinson Crusoe fallacy.
Exactly, it was a fundamental flaw of Moneyball. You can get a guy who gets on base a lot and gets you runs when he's at a bat, but if he's a defensive liability on the field, he is going to give up just as many runs to the opposition.
Undoubtedly Peter Brandt factored in fielding percentage when calculating run production/OBP.....Giambi was hardly a Gold Glove fielder at first and Damon, although a great center fielder, never really hit all that well for them.
Moneyball was about buying undervalued stats and ignoring overvalued ones. At that time (and still) defense was overvalued, as was speed and base stealing. OTOH OBP was massively undervalued. So yes, you're "buying runs;" however, technically you're buying "net" runs, and that does factor in defense.
@@paulpeterson4216 Most players commit way, way less errors than hits as well.
"We've been working asses off."
Give me a break! They hardly look like they're working there asses off.
No, these guys absolutely were and do - traveling around the country, observing, talking to people. It just so happens they weren’t buying into analytics (yet).
They travel around the country and gather their own stats based on players. They could be in LA watching a person practice in the morning then have to be in Texas at night to watch a person of interest play in the game. Lots of sleepless nights and jet lag, away from families for weeks at a time. They absolutely work hard. Just cause someone doesn’t use a shovel everyday doesn’t mean they aren’t working hard.
You know this is a movie right? Adapted from a true story, but not completely factual.
@travisvanalst4698 I guess I see a difference between working and being inconvenienced. Sitting and watching players play is not working. Traveling a lot is tiring, and it's a hassle. I'm not saying it's easy for them. I just don't see it as work.
@cancarriz Holy crap! I didn't believe it at first, but after I double checked, I found out you were right! It actually IS a movie! Right on!
🙃
It wasn't just player selection it followers up with players playing up to par, David Justice and several others stepping up as individuals and as a team also. I rec this movie to Ha Baseball players at my Hs job. They're receptive and have a cheater awareness afterwards.
I'm not just a Uniform
The movie doesnt really get into why the A's were doing so well the season before.. the already had a lot of talent on that team before the movie even starts
I laugh at the cut to the chewing tobacco everytime. It's the director saying "you didn't get it? these scouts are old school".
Great acting by all.
Its a funny coincidence that 2 of the dudes at this table played villains in a buffy/angel episode
Think this is a great illustration of how defective conventional thinking of that time, dramatically underrated OBP as a stat for team offensive production and winning.
In basketball, 3p% was grossly underrated for a decades after the 3p basket came into play as well.
The “eye test” would overrate the impact of guys like Carmelo Anthony back then. Inefficient “scorers” who think their worst guarded attempts were better shots than a teammates corner 3z
When most games are decided by less than 10 points, understanding the true expected values of shots (on D and O) is critical. Especially when even a .333 three (pretty mediocre) has same expected point value as a .500 two (what great player average on a midrange pull up).
Mulder, Zito, & Hudson. They left that out.
On the board behind the right guy, Chris P(ratt) at 3:08
Good catch! 😂😂 🏆
477 obp is pretty damn clutch
Just noticed at 2:58 (and again at 3:08) the name on the yellow tag in the background when they are discussing Scott Hatteberg says "Pratt C". That's gotta be an intentional Easter Egg, right?
and i still wonder who plays on first :) and for the record, i dont know is on third.
What is the name of the guy on second base.
Funny, they were right about Jeremy Giambi.
I always found it funny he has these computers full of data and then in the meeting they're just talking about OBP. I tell myself it's just so they hope the old timers will understand one simple thing but Im never sure because they don't say it.
Absolutely ridiculous that a major plot point of this movie is not just replacing Giambi's bat, but his GLOVE! He's literally one of the worst defensive 1Bs of all time lmao, like it would be unimaginable him being anything besides a DH in today's game, but back then there was the stupid idea that there was such thing as being too good as a hitter to be DH, and this movie is supper to be all about moving past stupid ideas.
“He can play and we need players who can play” ah, you’ve got it all figured out. Great.
add - inevitably who was right.
the scouts only dream.
the GM though gets stuck with the dead turkeys and high contracts
pete though is an accountant whom sees through dead turkeys and only sees numbers.
percentages are everything in baseball.
The scouts are talking about prospects in the minors. Nobody gets stuck with huge contracts at that point.
Everything in life is about percentages when you think about it. Baseball and other sports just have a lot of the data collected and catalogued so it's easier to analyze than real life.
Is that General Shepherd in the back?
I probably would have taught Justice to play 1st and used Hatteberg as a DH only.
No way. Always put a catcher a first base if you have to. They’re used to scooping up wild pitches and keeping balls in front of them. At first base, even though they’re in a different stance, they have more time to react to a bad throw or one-hopper. Obviously you would worry about line drives and hard grounders up the first base line, but that’s not nearly as important as receiving throws from the rest of the infield.
The Nationals moved Ryan Zimmerman to first when his rotator cuff went south. He only helped them to win a World Series.
Other way around is how I would do it: Hatteberg at 1st and Justice as a DH. Hatteberg actually ended up being a pretty good first baseman.
Pete must have loved Barry Bonds. OBP in 04 .609!
You are not going to win with .230 BA and .340 OB. How many playoff series did the A's win?
Because they prioritized OBP and didnt bother with defense
Not gonna talk about the excellent pitching staff and the mvp playing third base.
Billy could've fire atleast half of them for questioning his decisions.
You really don't want to fire people for (respectfully) bringing their percieved issues to your attention.
I love this movie and watched it at least 3 times but can someone tell me why everyone is spitting in cup while in meeting
Dipping tobacco
No, it's sunflower seeds - the shells.
Was $285K the league minimum then?
Yes, but now it's like $700 k.
It is not called Tactic, it should be called Strategy
RIP Jeremy
If the manager is picking all the players then why does he need those people at the table.
Not sure but an OBP of 324 and 291 are not that great are they?
That's kind of his point. Instead of one star hitter plus two not so great batters he wants three players that average to the same OBP
@@Andreas-ni2lt Yup, they're so focused on these guys replacing Giambi that they overlooked that they also had better OBPs than the other two.
Damon and Almeda (?) had crappy OBPs. Plus, Giambi's OBP was accumulated in far more plate appearances. And of course, his OPS was huge too.
What I don’t get is that, the A’s weren’t exactly a superstar team to begin with, right? So how were they able to win so many games with this method?
@@Bingbangboompowwhamthink of it like a bell curve. Your worst players on one end and the best at the other. Obviously they couldnt afford to get more of the best players. So they found a bunch of middle quality players that were valued low for various reasons. Then they could afford to make the overall team better with those players.
Did this work?
I love this movie, but when the scout he fires says "you're not going to bring in ONE... but THREE defective players to replace Giambi?" Isn't it 3 players for 3 players to replace but each of the 3 is an average OBP? Tell me I'm wrong its the only thing that bothers me LOL
That was the problem with Freddy, he never understood what Billy was doing. Even though Billy had spelled it out for him multiple times. Freddy was stuck on "replacing Giambi"
@MrCveedub he's even MORE awful at his job if that's the case haha
okay i watched 2 min of this scene now im gonna go watch the movie
In a lot of respects I feel for Grady’s character. He’s just not “getting it” and has a hard time buying in to the new approach.
yeah, you gotta, do the thing. with the aggregate.
You gotta carry the “1”…
On base percentage, on base percentage.
For this movie, Brad Pitt might be the best casting succes of all time
Why does everyone just quote back lines from this clip in the comment section? Other than liking it, do you have a comment?
I don't like baseball at all, and this movie and the Big Short are the most interesting. Math is my weakest subject, but everything here is proof you have to get beyond what's perceived as fact. Math people have the ability to see what others miss. Ironically, I was in transportation for 30 years, and even math people couldn't explain or answer ceretain questions I had. Ironically, math people on the board could. I am learning economics and business Calculus thanks to this and Big Short. I have learned that "doing what you love to do" is a huge lie! Do what makes the most money, whether you like it or not! You will learn to love things you hate, once you find their use. People who love what they do are always broke!!!
when we consider narratives and the reality of change... there are a lot of moving parts. humans
He coulda saved a lot of money by firing all the people in that room
Good scene but piss poor leadership by Beane. He doesn’t first explain his strategy to get his team on board. So instead you get confusion and resistance
Movies need drama.
Still sad they did Paul DePodesta so fucking dirty in this film.
God i love this movie and i dont even watch baseball
Trouble with the curve and Moneyball are two of my favourite sports movies and I have less than zero interest in Baseball as a sport.
How many of us are from an island of misfit toys?
Those numbers dont work out
The head scout was so arrogant.
He was Grady Fuson, a veteran Oakland scout whom Billy Beane did release. However, Beane and Fuson later reconciled and Fuson was hired back a few years after 2002.
Every company has a pen pusher / bean counter who's never done the job the other guys he / she is managing do and therefore has little respect."Billy who's that? That's #####. Does ##### really need to be here? Only works if other co workers know the movie however.
I played first base and it’s not that hard really sheesh
Who's on first?
That's right.
I am absolutely buying into Bill James' bullshit.
This movie was a ludicrous exaggeration.
...or im gonna point at pete
Whats all that cup spitting?
You don't swallow tobacco
@@roodledoot So they chew tobacco
Hatteberg ended up getting six more MLB seasons becuse of this.
That’s my “quant”
Typical boomers.......hate to conform and adapt
Analytics is fine for building a roster, but it is absolutely terrible for managing a game and has 100% thoroughly destroyed baseball as entertainment. Baseball has never been a worse product than it is now. It is so completely unwatchable. No action. No heart. No game within a game anymore. No risks, which is what made sports entertaining in the first place. Pitchers pitching five innings, even with intact perfect games and a low pitch count and a healthy lead. What a complete and utter waste of time to be a fan in the seats. Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Paul Molitor, Rod Carew and George Brett wouldn’t even get a chance to play in today’s game. This was the beginning of the end.
I love how disagreeable brad pitt is. Just, so sure of himself, even with the uncertainty. No need to explain yourself if the boss trusts you.