ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 ต.ค. 2024
- Raleigh, North Carolina, January 8th, 2020.
The #CleanDisruption of Energy and Transportation will be the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruption of energy and transportation in history. By analyzing and anticipating these disruptions, we can learn that the benefits to humanity will be immense, but to seize the upside, we will need to mitigate the downside.
Based on Seba's #1 Amazon bestselling book "Clean Disruption" and Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, this presentation lays out the key technologies (#batteries, #WlectricVehicles, #AutonomousVehicles), business model innovations (#ride-hailing, transportation-as-a-service #TaaS), how the technology disruption will affect existing companies and sectors (#MarketTrauma) and how it will unfold over the next decade, as well as key implications for society, finance, industry, cities, and infrastructure.
One of the most profoundly intelligent presentations I have ever listened to, and I am old professional presenter. Congratulations Mr. Seba, brilliant, keep them coming, the World needs to hear you!
Yaaaaaay, Tony's back. Tony you should Title your talks"I told you so..."
Toe de so!
I f@cken toe de so!
- Rickey
Excellent presentation and insight Tony! Thank-you for sharing your knowledge, experience and wisdom. We truly are living and witnessing historical times. Cheers from Canada.
Tony is predicting this technology distribution since years. And now it really happens due to Tesla, Rivian, Nio, Faraday Future, Byton and many others.
Amazing times are comming...
NIO won't exist at the very least. Why would anyone in China buy a NIO when they can buy a chinese made Tesla.
@@markplott4820 ...and its a better car!
@@web2yt488 " Why would anyone in China buy a NIO when they can buy a chinese made Tesla." They will buy NIO because of Market size! China is huge......
Waymo, Cruise (GM), Zoox, Aurora (Amazon), Mobileye, Aptiv and many others are ahead of the bulk of that list, Tesla being the possible exception.
except tesla non of those companies made an one single actual sellable car yet lol
Same presentation, rinse and repeat for the last 6 years? Mind you its still an awesome presentation.
Lots of updates, however - Tony has to drag the audience through the history, in order for his current stuff to have relevancy. I recall watching this presentation many years ago, and what is striking is how accurate his prediction timelines have been. While much of his presenation is "old-hat" to many of us, seeing a lot of what he was saying 7 years ago now happening, is sobering.
The thing is he can keep saying the same things with updated graphs because they are still true...
Most people still haven't seen it.
@@EMichaelBall Then you can change that. Just share the video with your friends.
he has a new line on the meat industry but i think that is mostly for paying customers, book buyers, and those who dig. check out his twitter feed for it.
last october I renovated my driving license (in my country, every 10 years until you're 65) for the last time in my life. I'm possitive. And so glad about that. I'm not even 40 and so tired of driving, mostly at nights, that I want level 4 sooner that Seba says.
Thank you Tony for sharing your wisdom, hard work, and insights. Fantastic presentation!
I hope no Tesla short seller is going to watch this video, because that could lead to a heart attack, sorry bro ;)
The problem in your responses is that you consider Tesla as a "automobile company" or "car maker" that's a Big mistake because Tesla is a energy company: Solar, megapack and EV. And this is what happen when your are just a car maker: www.google.com/amp/s/www.autoblog.com/amp/2020/01/23/mercedes-halves-eqc-production-battery-shortage/
I think most of them already had some heart attacks recently.
those short sellers are prob ones that have longs in oil markets or directly in the oil companies themselves. hehe
@@dasso7547 86% of Tesla's Q4 revenue came from auto. By definition they are an automaker. Solar doesn't contribute much in spite of a massive 30% purchase subsidy, special rules like mandated net metering and the virtual criminalization of nuclear.
Solar is a total non-starter compared to nuclear on a first principles physics basis.
Idiots. So we go from paying cents per mile to multiple dollars per mile and donating the difference to the sick and corrupt government.
You people are idiots!!
Tony, wow, thank you for this video. This really makes you think and ponder the future. So many ways to make money during this disruption.
Thanks for this video, it's awesome to open your mind and think about these things.
I don't have a "job" and my last job was retail at $13 an hour. I own an EV that only does 60 miles to a charge because it's the cheapest option, it's paid off. I now use it to work the gig economy and can pull about $80 from a $2 charge in about 2 to 3. Have put 75k miles on it in 4.5 years. Wish I could afford a Tesla, someday I will be there.
Also the 30k barrier is broken in the States for an EV by Chevy. You can go walk in and get a bolt for about 9-11k off MSRP. People are walking out paying 24-26k OTD for brand new 2020 bolts with 259 miles of range. Your predictions are great BTW!
One question for you Tony Seba. You talk about autonomy in this video, what do you think robots are going to do for us in the next 15 years? Those that have been watching have seen the progress that Boston Dynamics has made in the last decade.
@@IuseanXboxController Robots by 2030 can replace humans in most of the manual tasks. Every dirty/dangerous/boring/repetitive work robot will do better and safer
@@marduchok I 100% agree with you about that. I want to know what we are going to do about the millions it will displace from the work force. That's the biggest disruption we will ever see in our civilization.
@@IuseanXboxController it seems to me that UBI might be a viable option
I think supermarket should convert their parking spaces into vertical farms with solar on the roof.
Funny I work at a place with multi storey parking ramp. I have been thinking about converting that ramp coz the would be lesser cars to park the in future .
I think they will convert parking lots to little shanty towns for the unemployed.
brilliant
@- Seradest aeroponic
@@allencrider I think we should build nice apartments and parks in the parking lots and do away with houselessness.
Great presentation that's updated for 2020. Looking forward to seeing your work on energy disruption (wind, solar pv + battery storage) that you were only able to touch on with this talk on transportation.
Interesting presentation and data. Few comments:
1) just because you do not own a car does not mean you do not pay a gas tax. You pay for it indirectly through higher food costs, higher taxi/ride-share fares, etc.
2) please overlay actual historical Lithium Ion battery costs on your projection curve @ 24 mins.
3) might want to define "moving parts". A Tesla has 17 "moving parts" in the drive-train (various sources/forums). The electric motors have moving parts including gears. Absolutely an EV has much fewer than an ICE car but the ratio presented does not seem to be apples to apples.
4) might be interesting to touch on e-bikes and e-scooters. For the last mile (or more) they are a game changer (throw in trunk). I ride a scooter 12 miles RT to work when weather permits, as fast as driving my used Tesla S and probably costs me $0.40 in power.
5) what was the cost ratio of owning a horse/buggy in early 1900's vs a car?
Thank you...SJ
Youre quibbling ffs, get over your self-importance
@@walk-with-Walz no, he makes a lot of great points.
Horse vs ICE historic cost curve, that will make a fine phd paper for some grad students...someone may have done that already. I should go check :) my guess was car cost more than house+carriage all the way in the first 20 some years, until the model T, then horse + carriage together was more than the car. This is just my guess.
@@simoc24 the cost comparison between a horse and a car isn't accurate, just like the cost comparison between a shovel and a bulldozer isn't accurate. They both move dirt, but at totally different scales.
A car may have been more expensive than a horse, but it could also do much more work, haul heavier loads, didn't require rest breaks, could go much faster and farther, and when you were done with it, you parked it and forgot about it.
A horse requires constant care and fueling, even if you aren't using it, and if one has a flat tire, you have to shoot it, and lose all your investments, rather than just replacing the tire.
These factors do offset the comparison between the adoption of the car, and the switch to electric, because the car was better than the horse in pretty much every way, from a daily user experience, but the ICE can do pretty much everything the EV can, and quite a few things better (such as range by adding large fuel tanks, and instant refueling).
So the cost difference will be the main driver to EVs, where it was utility that drove the horse to car transition.
Love the optimism. I'm a better person after watching this. Thank you.
This feels like it was just released yesterday -- the content is so high quality and accurate to what actually happened.
Excellent presentation.
Solving The Money Problem: disruption a common term that Tesla backers are using, Cathie Wood. Back over $800 😀that matters!
Nice to see you here Steven!
@@madhououinkyoma I'm everywhere 😉
Thanks Tony, was interested to see your slides & hear your expanded commentary describing your framework! The combination of new & improved things we can do with convergences of your 10 key techs seems endless - should be interesting!! o/
5:51 Gates dismissing the Internet. Encarta was Microsoft's CD-based encyclopedia. It was revised annually. There was not even an article in 1994 Encarta on the Internet. Microsoft made a near-miraculous organizational change effort to get out in front of it after that. Had they not, they likely would have perished, just like Subaru will. R.I.P. soon.
I remember Encarta. :D
I remember Encarta. :D
Gates has a long history of promoting the wrong things. He started with BASIC, missed out on the Internet, and now his big hobby horse seems to be the travelling wave reactor (which is not at all as he descibed it). I don't understand why he isn't getting called more on his many foolish advocacies.
Sure there was: winworldpc.com/product/encarta/1994
I still install Encarta on our ship's local network
Similar presentation Tony has been doing for years. But still very interesting as he updates on his predictions. If his vision of 2030 is true, I don't think I'll be living in a city. 1 hour commute is fine if you can sit back and have breakfast or coffee - probably have an impact on the demographics of cities. This is assuming I still have a job that requires me to work in a city.
YEs... I've been watching Tony do this stuff for a long time - and he always starts with that NY 1900-1913 analogy. He has to regurgitate all this though, if his updates are to make any sense to the audience. What is striking, however, is that his prediction timing is remarkably accurate. I wonder if the legacy car companies, fossil-fuel companies and the myriad of associated industries are aware of what is soon to happen to them.
@@brunosmith6925 Think a minority of employees at the soon to be disrupted oil and legacy car companies must be aware if their impending fate. However the following quote comes to mind "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair
Another interesting quote which documents the increasing rate of disruption:
"In 1965, the average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 was 33 years. By 1990, it was 20 years. It's forecast to shrink to 14 years by 2026." [Inc.com]
Think more than a few companies from the oil and legacy car manufacturers will contribute the 2026 forecast!
Jup. It will be great when for many the door to the Office will be right in front of their home. You would be able to get into the self driving car and start working during the 1h commute and keep working during the 1h commute back. Which means you have a lot more quality family time.
@@meamzcs I feel sick if I use my laptop in a car. They better make the suspension ultra-comfortable and minimize g-forces.
@@ashh3051 They will probably do that. Suspensions are getting to a new level anyway now that we have systems that actually analyse the street below the car and adjust the suspension in milliseconds. I think a lot of that is also just changing lighting conditions from the outside. I guess you would be able to make it completely dark inside and have constant lighting by LEDs or something.
Ray Kurzweil has been giving talks like this for over 10 years. He calls this the Law of Accelerating Returns which is the exponential growth of tech due to the fact that we are building today's technology using yesterdays tech and building tomorrow's tech using today's tech. This is what gives computing power it's exponential growth which growths all tech. He has a documentary on you tube Transcendent Man. Mind blowing.
A very important message. Thank you, Tony!
Hi Mr Tony
I am now optimistic with the future especially following Tesla Investment Day and your presentations
I can not wait to get away from this fossil burning society and looking forward to breathing fresh air
Money speaks and now the cost of renewables and electric vehicles is cheaper this is the route we must take
Well done Mr Seba
57:00 Utopia is just around the corner.
Let's celebrate!!! Because we're gonna all be so rich and happy... :) Can't wait.
depends who owns the technology. But, utopia has already happened in that abject poverty has decreased even though the richer are richer but nevertheless those living on less than a dollar a day has decreased dramatically. tThere will still be slums and poor people but hopefully we can solve basic transport , food and sanitary needs for even more people on earth.
Hi Prof. Seba, great talk. On the slide at 24:16 let me just suggest you add an in-between number of Li0Ion Megafactories, for example the number in 2017. Two points can be connected with a line, so those two numbers 3 and 96 don't prove it's not a linear scale.
Best thing I've seen in years....
Excellent presentation
Tony Seba tells this story since 2014 - nearly without changes. He is the godfather of prediction!
I hate being a curmudgeon but when he says his predictions about 2020 were right, nope. Not there yet.
Thank you for putting up a very informative presentation on transportation. Just wondering if we free up so much spaces from reduction of carpark spaces, then when will we face peak property price or supply in big cities?
I’ve been watching Tony for some years. The only part of this that I have trouble with is the utility of transport as a service unless our travelling patterns change. We can’t all hail the same car at the same time to take us to work, or a concert or whatever and keep to the pricing model.
Uber as an example already has surge pricing, so I’d expect that the same impact on how quickly people drop their own cars - or travel differently.
Something else to consider is the economics of this outside of major metropolitan areas. The density of cars and people is dramatically different and distances even longer so the logistics of transport as a service could be problematic.
I’d also expect that working patterns to be disrupted by c19 where lots of people decide working from home is better.
With more options for working remotely there could be a serious disruption on where people actually want to live. Instead of flocking to cities for work, people can work from anywhere, and are more likely to live where they want.
This is confirming a lot of my personal research on these subjects
One of the best possible ways to spend an hour on TH-cam ...
Companies don't disrupt themselves because they have to much money invested and don't want to loose that income. This is why I don 't see any of the OEM's surviving Tesla and the other new EV companies.
Possibly true. It would be shocking, but less so when you consider that CEOs are replaceable cogs in the system. When they are malfunctioning, i.e., underperforming for a couple of quarters from cannibalizing their own sales, missing revenues and dumping $$$$ into R&D, they are out of a job.
They are relatively powerless to make this transition.It's not just about lack of vision.
@@BobHiltner Exactly. Just what I said but in more details.
Sears had the premier catalog business in the US. They had one of the highest rate of Americans ordering via catalog of any major retail institution. They released their final Sears Catalog a year or so before Amazon was founded. Despite the fact that they had customers, financing, and distribution down, they didn't bother to rapidly go into an online catalog company in the mid 90s, instead they opted for their shopping mall anchor store business model. When Amazon did come around major retailers thought of them as some joke. Amazon disrupted them all.
It's called the innovators dillemma.
Disagree. They have too much money invested.
well, if everything that you said is going to move as fast as you said then 2030 is going to look like a sci-fi fantasy from the 80s. And that's amazing
2020 already looks like Scifi compared to the early 1980's. A small set of examples ...
1. Personal computers (IBM PC's) only entered the market in 1982 and the Apple Mac with the first GUI in 1984.
2. Only University and Defence Research organizations in the Western world had access to the embryonic Internet.
3. The word "Internet" did not even enter our Dictionary until around 1995.
4. Early Mobile Phones started to come out in the late 1980's and early 1990's.
5. The first Smartphone, Apple's iPhone did not come out until 2007.
6. Watching the first stage of rockets guide themselves back down to a graceful landing on land or sea was never considered until SpaceX made it happen for the very first time in 2015.
Since the early 2000's, Musk with his series of companies has been the most disruptive human being in history.
2020 already looks like Scifi compared to the early 1980's.
What other examples highlight the change?
@@JohnANoonan 1980 - 0, 1990 - 2, 2000 - 4, 2010 - 8, 2020 - 16, 2030 - 32, 2040 - 64, 2050 - 128, 2060 - 256, 2070 - 512, care to take this progression to 2100. We are just now hitting the knee of the curve. I'm an amateur futurologist and historian, and been writing online for years. So many people think that we will be the same in 2100 as we are today, and it will take hundreds of years to move off planet or build settlements on other space bodies. It's so hard to break into their bubbles.
The future is already here th-cam.com/video/HVqWEoyiaBA/w-d-xo.htmlm18s
SUPERB! Well done.... brilliant - As a Glasgow City dweller we are already starting to see this happen and COVID is only helping it happen faster. GREAT news for many with improvements to quality of life that homeworking and reduced commute and dead times means more fun/work time.
I am surprised he (Tony Seba) did not talk about Electric Autonomous Flights as part of Disruptions.
PS: already Mahindra (Auto maker in India) has announced their SUVs this year in India for about 20K US.
The best and most comprehensive presentation I've ever seen on this topic.
Tony Seba and his disruption framework is incredible. In Alberta Canada we are witnessing the disruption now in Oil and Gas investment. Big Oil sees the writing on the wall and is backing out of multi billion dollar investments. O&G investment is drying up. Kindermorgan got out of Transmountain and just today Teck Resources cancelled a 20Billion oil sands project. Time to wake up and respond while we can.
Thanks again Tony for your sagacious insights. You are a modern day technology prophet. I keep saying that when u find partners in the data or when things align growth or outcome is always exponential never linear....
Oh btw and you explain things so very easily and in a non ambiguous way.
Thanks once again...
So are you saying Yang is correct? Who would have guessed that the guy who relies on data is giving factual information? :o Nice presentation and a great job connecting the dots for people who don't understand novel technology adoption rates or the reasons for technological disruptions in general.
This is incredible!! 💪🔥
But true!
Hi everyone,
I highly believe ón Tony’s presentation and The Growth of The EV are going to have an exponential increase.
What stock do you recommend to invest IN order to take advantage ón The información that we have? (Excluding Tesla)
Go to `Ark Invest` ark-funds.com/ and take a look at who they are investing in .. obviously the companies you believe tie in with this presentation.
@@steve.k4735 BLNK
Nothing wrong with still owning the same suit 10 years later Tony. A sensible use of the world's resources. I hate today's throwaway culture. I have a few casual clothes that I've had for 30 years - admittedly they're only fit for around the house these days but are perfectly serviceable for the use to which I put them.
Awesome presentation . Cannot agree more absolutely mind blowing.
Thank you for this fascinating talk. I can already see very cheap micro ev cars being sold in Asian and European markets. There are some things I wonder about after listening to your talk. First is the funding of road construction and maintenance, in my country this is paid via car registration fees.
The second and third is the impact on public transport and whether we will still have centralised business hubs where large numbers of people head into work.
25 years later from university....this is better education and cheaper than going to class.
Great video. One of the best I have ever seen.
I will keep my 1997 Saturn in the future for recreational purposes. And show it at old car meetups on Sunday.
Scotty Kilmer will stay say Toyota celica is better than ev
you won't be able to find anywhere to park to have a meetup!
It will be noisy polluting car. It will look totally outdated
We have to keep in mind, that the batteries are getting much better too. This will boost the disruption even more.
Great presentation! Thinking ahead instead of looking in the past. Key especially with unprecedented disruptive technologies converging. Thanks for the teaching!!!
This guy should give a talk to our MPs in Parliment. They are all small minded & only think in 5 year periods. After having lived abroad and coming back to the UK, TIME TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE. the UK is a DICKENSIAN COUNTRY, it is the same as left it 50 years ago.
I look forward to the day I no longer need a car.
Use Lyft or Uber.. it’s cheaper than a car payment sometimes.. but if you go far it’s more expensive ..
Mark Plott It’s not legal yet. Not proven to work and who knows maybe next week or for some places and weather never safe and approved? Also people will abuse the cars and eventually prices may need to rise. It could be a money losing business but succeed at $.18 a mile.. maybe survive on ad revenue. MIT says corporate expenses, remote driver and taxi license costs, cleaning and recharge employees, fleet parking lots and repair yards will make costs more than driving your own car for high mileage average consumer.
Can you think of a way to prevent dirty shoes or sticky -fingered kids from making an interior dirty, and how to avoid almost daily interior cleaning with its costs and wasted time? Cleaning is annoying and time consuming to a private owner, and expensive for a fleet. I think most people want their own mobile space and clean seats and a lot of items in the vehicle ... and so do not want to share that car nor want to use daily someone else’s EV. Yes even if it is cheaper we don’t take buses nor taxi nor ride share but pay way more for our own car. It might be financially wiser for people to ride share now but only certain people do.. usually younger people who don’t mind too much if they are late or don’t leave immediately ;).
Mark Plott ok.... Yes I’ve been in Japan. (That’s not the issue.) Wow, and they work for less than it would cost to own a high mileage car? Not really.. you support my high cost of service point ..
Mark Plott Yes but worldwide most places are not as Densely populated as the most densely populated city in the world. I guess you’re bored? I don’t understand your point, as you are talking about a highly unusual case of the ‘unique’ overcrowded center of Japan whereas I am talking about the world trend. A taxi service is just going to be more expensive than owning a private car for high mileage users in most places of the world, yes you do have a point...there are some mega cities that private ownership is a problem. It’s not much of the world. So I don’t think Robotaxis will dominate yes hopefully we will reduce our populations instead of continuing to destroy the planet…and car ownership will not disappear.
Mark Plott great can’t wait for my free cruise rides free private island!! I want some free chocolate cake too yum yum
You are right on with your predictions.
Seems like the thing that "eats" the existing car stock (in the "horses became food" sense) is a keystone to this.
If it's just scraping, then it's going to be expensive & energy intensive in the near-term (you expect it will pay back mid to long term)
Modular retrofitting is the only thing that I can see, but what "fleet" is going to want that kind of legacy junk to manage?
Existing cars to fleets, be a step in the way, but would likely slow things down...
The twist: It's the same guy riding the horse and driving the car.
He just didn't want to conform to the norm.
Hipsters... SMH
Only one question. How did the roads gets financed? No gas tax. Will there be an electronic gps based toll system? This will increase the costs per mile referenced in the presentation since the roads have to maintained. At least the roads won't have to be expanded. We are probably at peak roadway sq.ft of impervious space.
Another great talk.
Awesome.
BTW Tony, Andoid Os is simply a user interface built on Linux.
Ubuntu is another, there are 100's of them.
It's not only a user interface. Just like Ubuntu or Debian are not. It's a lot of stuff that comes bundeled with it. It's the preconfiguration and Integration of all of these parts. It's not only the user interface.
Mike Poirier
True
If you look at pure OS level, you’d be correct. The difference is how you customize and mold Linux to run on mobile devices. Then you set up a play store. Then you provide SDK and convince a lot of developers to build apps. This is what we call echo system that may be based on Linux, but in many ways this echo system is a unique product.
Peace
Tony with due respect things will not change that quick. When oil drops to $10 a barrel, for few additional years gasoline (ICE) cars and especially trucks sales will increase. So the downwards curve will not be a smooth slide but a lot of jagged edged up and down movement. In the long term though oil and ICE cars are destined for disruption and annihilation.
Great presentation. If I would have trusted the youtube algorithm I would have watched it a month ago.
Fascinating. I have three questions @Tony Seba:
Q1 What happens to existing fleet? Can these vehicles be converted to EV? Autonomous? If not, this will slow the transition (kiwis hold onto their cars for about 15y+!)Q2 How are your forecasts impacted by Covid, esp given oil price drop - does that prolong the timeframe for ICE?Q3 Dont your economic implications need to be netted off against impact of demise of oil industry?
This was eye-opening and somewhat heartening. It seems to me that at least some measure of this transformation will rely on an upgraded electrical grid, which has not kept pace with the speed of computing technology. It also relies in the short term on the continued mining of lithium, which is a finite resource. I don't think lithium batteries can be refurbished, so that battery technology also has a limited future. A breakthrough in battery technology is still needed, which has been the case for the last 20 years.
The link to this video starts the presentation in the middle. Is there an administrator who can change it so that the link starts at the beginning of the presentation? Thank you
I have been looking to buying E trucks but as of now it's not feasible for interstate transportation. Tesla is claiming to be producing a truck with a 500 mile range that can be recharged in 30 minutes but the release date has come and gone and I've had no word from them. I have not seen a single charging station at a truck stop. I'm a buyer if the conditions are right but these companies have to step it up if they want to create this new market.
Great video! Would love links and analysis of battery tech updated to 2020 with $/kwh and kwh/kg, with datapoints for different tech in different years. Might allow insight into direction of each tech.
I would be so delighted to know if you own some stock in one of the tech companies. Or if you plan to buy stocks, which ones would it be? I'm asking this because you are such a talented and visionary professional! Thanks for your presentation !!!
He actually predicted the crash of oil prices that occurred this year. Damn
Oil prices collapsed this year because of a dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the Russians trying to destroy U.S. frackers, and Covid-19.
This presentation leaves me with some more questions. Can iphone disruption be compared to autonomous? We have a country like India and some other Asian and African countries with more than 2 billion people, with at least 3% of the people with spending power to buy an iphone which causes this kind of disruption. But do we have autonomous technology for some of the Asian and African roads? If the tech cannot cover these areas, can the disruption be expected?
How are we going to pay for roads? It is time to look at how we are going to finance the building, use, and maintenance of the infrastructure. Should there be a per-mile use tax, how do you split between city, county, state, and nation. We have so many needs that have been deferred, we build guns, bombs instead of investing in the infrastructure for the needs of the nation. The problem with the current business structure in the USA is the investment class is extractors for high profits instead of building new opportunities.
That's exactly what I was looking for, especially when he was talking to the folks who actually have to build and maintain the roads!
Just one thing to point out, In this well put together presentation the speaker says that running battery vehicles will be incredibly cheap, I have some bad news for you because petrol is cheap what makes it expensive is the fuel duty added by the government.
When they loose this revenue they will simply add it to electricity so what your paying today is nothing to what we will all pay tomorrow.
King One Eye'd in Denmark, we pay around 2,50 Crowns for a kwh, 2,0 Crowns are taxes... still a lot cheaper than petrol, but it is quite frustraing.
Excellent! Thank you for the stunning insights!
A very good presentation by Tony Seba - well substantiated and scientifically sound. However, as an EV supporter I personally have one big concern. It boils down to the basic demand-supply balance. Tesla may be able to profitably sell Model 3 for even less than 35000 dollars, but why would they if the demand supports an average price of around 45000. My point is that in order for the disruption to happen someone should be able to produce EVs in large numbers. For the time being this can only happen if the big manufacturers join the club. However, they seem to be playing exactly the opposite game.
It will have to come from outside, I would say myself this could be China. They are investing like crazy in capacity to produce EV's. If the stale old brands sit on their hands they will loose out. Look at the mobile phones now how the Chinese brands are bleeding edge now and 1/2 the cost. Cars will be similar once they manage quality control which won't take them 5 years.
I'm curious if the speaker analysis of the economics around the 55:36 mark takes into account that the lack of fuel taxes used to maintain roads will have to come from somewhere, so the money he is suggesting will go into our pocket may be have to be clawed back somewhere along the process in order to maintain the intrastructure.
Bob Cheeseman maybe they will actually make it right then. These 6 inches of black top doesn’t cut it. It’s make work projects to pad higher ups construction companies that pave the same roads every 5 years, while they take a cut, filling the batch with 10% cheap aggregate.
With that dramatic reduction in vehicles the maintenance should drop massively.
Nothing wrong with government spending on roads, if the economy gets a boost from all those gains then maintaining roads should be easy, also maybe automation makes that even cheaper.
Disruptive behavior change make me feel optimistic. Thanks a lot. Best regards.
Would it be safe to say that silver,zinc and nickel are buying opportunities now?
I love this, but would like to posit that EIA was predicting 118 models of EVs in 2035, not 118 cars.
You are not familiar with how terrible EIA is at predicting anything.
What does the curve look like with the application of solid state batteries?
It was interesting and thought provoking. And yet sometimes these technological transformations don't take place in quite the way that people think.
When Tony was talking about TaaS, and how riding from one city to another could be as cheap as 1$, I am reminded of statements from many many years ago about how nuclear energy would make electricity so inexpensive that it would be too cheap to meter. Now clearly that never happened (for a variety of reasons).
And regarding insanely cheap transportation, I remain a skeptic - while in theory much cheaper transportation might reduce the costs of a very long commute (say 2 hours each way), at the end of the day such a commute would still consume 4 hours out of your day that you are in a vehicle (albeit not driving). The commuter might wish to spend that time doing something else. Maybe a hobby, maybe spending time with kids, maybe sleeping.
Driving will become recreational.
There was a time when driving was already recreational. Now, on congested roads it's only a chore.
*You should talk to the Greensboro City Council who is hell bent on building more PARKING GARAGES* in order to lure LUXURY HOTELS into downtown. They are wasting tax payer money. *[This video is such an eye-popping education. What a treat. ]*
Sure we know where the technology is going but there is not going be to anywhere near the money kept back in our pocket.Corporations will not get into this to help us keep money in our pockets.
"Durham to Raleigh for less than a dollar" in a few years ,I guess he's smoking the good stuff.Also as soon as you buy that coffee or whatever at starbucks you will have to give up a kidney for the price they charge; you don't ride because no one rides for free!
I have telling people the oil price has to come down as there is no other way for it to go,sure the elites will create a few wars to keep it up a bit but this will only be temporary.
Most everything is spot on except for us getting anywhere near this amount of cash back .Remember this is happening purely for economic reasons;one example was the technology for phones drove up the costs tenfold ...they did not decrease the prices .
Wow. You managed to get every point entirely *WRONG.* Congratulations!
That's a lot of garages getting turned into extra living space.
Sure sounds like it. Until you consider 40% of Americans don't even live within a metropolitan area. And that people don't make all their decisions on saving money. If we did, the average new home wouldn't be 2.5x larger than 50 years ago while we're having half as many children. SUVs and trucks wouldn't be nearly as popular as they are here in the US.
Autonomous driving technology will put the DMV out of business in 20 years or less. I want to live long enough to see it.
He got one thing wrong: Mac, Windows both have a smaller footprint than Linux because Linux powers the large majority of cell phones on the market because they're running Android (which is Linux under the covers).
I think he was talking about computers not mobile technology.
@@bubba842 Po'tay'to / Po'tah'to - many many people around the world only use smart phones as their working platform.
Tony was conservative in his outcome. It's happening even faster. WOW.
Very insightful, Thank's Tony
not sure you mentioned about job losses due to cars becoming obsolete
How many FSD EVs will be needed per year once FSD is available?
The infrastructure surrounding horses was diverse and well spread in ownership. Once cars came people then were working for Mr Big Auto. We all have seen the films of the strikes and violence that resulted. This never occurred with the horse transport economy. Big Auto also just closed down plants in Michigan, and elsewhere, at a whim moving production to Mexico and other countries because they made more money doing that, leaving these areas devastated.
"Seba's Law" = Li-iOn Batteries curve - thumbs up to approve. Please pin this to the top too. Anyway, I formally declare that the "Li-iOn Batteries" bullet at around 7:10 be called "Seba's Law." I posted this proclamation just days after this video was uploaded but I am betting Tony is being too modest and had it removed. For added measure, I even said the same on my TH-cam video so you can't hide Tony lol. So, let's all thumbs-up this comment to show Tony he deserves the credit for his hard work and being with other greats like Moore and Kryder. Meanwhile, since the lithium in the Li-iOn batteries is a low percentage and could someday be replaced by something different, maybe "Seba's Law" should = "Battery Technologies" or something similar. I'm going to keep reposting this until we give Tony the credit he deserves.
The presentation says 70% fewer cars because people won't need to own them, but I am not sure the math works out because there will still need to be at least as many robotaxis in existence as current cars on the road at any given time because the same number of people will need to get to work during rush hour. So traffic won't go down unless the cars are full. I don't think that portion is going to happen as people will still want a car to themselves without it stopping to pick up others.
It doesn't work because the trip distances are too long. If everyone switched to shared pool then you might reduce the fleet by 10 to 20%. This is the utilization issue. The proponents of the Uber future think that a 90% utilization will occur and reduce congestion. It can't. Some of these cars might be able to complete 1 round trip during rush hour. They might have to dead head on the return.
I would have loved to know you before recently Tony! greetings from France
The question that needs addressing, in my opinion, is the current mileage limitation for pure electric vehicles. If I need to drive 400 miles from A to B and current EV mileage limitation is 200, what then? I have to drive halfway and wait for my vehicle to recharge? How long does that take? I understand here that he says no one will own a car and that a trip like I am describing will be made in a fleet vehicle and not one that I personally own. In that case I guess I will take the fleet vehicle for 200 miles and then there will be another one waiting for me to hop in to to finish the trip.
Modern EVs charge 80% range in about 30 minutes. 300 miles is rapidly becoming the desired, and easily available, range. 400 miles is within a year (see Rivian), but still expensive, so the 300 mile with 30 minute 80% recharges looks like the near-term sweet spot. The price savings is not yet as good as the video predicts, but the competition to provide recharge isn't there either.
Nice presentation Tony!
Disruption usually comes from the outside. This translates into ... it is very difficult to disrupt your own market (I understand only 1 horse carriage producer switched to producing cars) ... but do realize that your company might disrupt that other market. Apple in fact lost in its own computer market but disrupted the phone market in stead. Just a thought. What other market is your company disrupt next?
Apple has long had the mentality that they should disrupt their own products. They make desktop computers and then they make their laptops try to compete directly against their desktop modes. Then they make tablets that try to compete head on with their laptops. Then they make phones that try to compete with their tablets. Then they make watches that try to compete with the phone.
Car companies. This isn't the case. None of them have deveoped EVs that compete against their high end models. BMW creates sports sedans, and then an EV that will in no way threaten those gas sport sedans. What they should have been focusing on is creating an EV lineup that competes head to head with the M3-M5 models.
What's the name of that horse carriage producer?
: D I got this from the show American Pickers when they came across a Studebaker. Also, see this link: history.stackexchange.com/questions/46866/did-any-carriage-manufacturers-make-the-transition-to-automobile-building
Excellent video. Thank you.
I'm a mass transit commuter and I could see the need for this technology. We need to let go of our dependence on oil and gas. I never felt good owning and using a car. I understand the selfishness that makes people own a car, but that's all it is "selfishness". This new tech will allow people to hold on to their selfishness but they will be able to do so without polluting the planet. I hope all of this mans vision comes true today.
Seba appears brilliant though he made two statements that are so obviously wrong it makes one question his other stated facts. First, he says at 30:05 that "you can actually park sideways with an EV. Try that with a diesel engine car". There is not an EV on the road that can park sideways. Imagine the complicated engineering of wheels and axles to make that happen. Second, at about 29:00 he makes reference to an "infinite mile warranty" and references a Tesla blog as the source. Maybe someday but currently the warranty is 120,000. I know -- I own a Tesla Model 3. Third, he states internal combustion engine cars have 2,000 moving parts but an electric car only 18. That seems like an exaggeration. True, there are many fewer moving parts in an EV because of the electric motors versus complicated ICE engines. But they also have brake rotors, power windows, power seats, power mirrors, power door handles, shift knobs, etc. - all of which adds up to more than 18. I wish he had said "far fewer parts" or "1/10th the number of parts" so as to be more realistic. I hesitate to be critical. His analysis appears brilliant. But small errors or exaggerated facts can detract from his larger and more important message. Thought???
There are multiple vehicle prototypes now that incorporate hub motors and the ability to traverse laterally. You go to CES and the tech shows in Asia and there are a few with autonomous cab designs with such features. Nothing in production yet but inevitable none the less.
Still waiting for a Tony Seba Wikipedia page... (:-(
Someone has to start it. That could be you.
I'm starting to wonder if some people are not on Wikipedia because they don't want to be there. A few examples: I'm still looking for pages for Tony Seba, the filmmaker David Hoffman, the Dutch musician Pip Blom, and several TH-camrs with substantial audiences (and real-world names that we know). That's just my own recollections, over a short time.
A BIT OVEROPTIMISTIC, BUT - WOW - WHAT AN AWESOME PRESENTATION!!!!!
Indeed. There is so much confirmation bias in these comments, it's almost sad. Tony gives a great presentation, but his predictions are based on everyone living in dense cities, not even suburbs, much less the huge number of people in extremely rural areas. He's probably only 5-10 years too early on his predictions about EV adoption. Regarding automated taxis taking us everywhere - I used to believe that, then I realized how ignorant it was.
Yeah Tony would be impressive 10 years ago, now he is just mirroring the front page with some new statistics. I remember the 60s Nuclear excitement, or 80s supersonic excitement, or 2005 3D craze, or 2009 VR excitement. Most new tech never gets past 5% mostly as toys for the rich for example pools, hot tubs, 3d tvs, and helicopter pads, which have advantages but the middle and lower class prefer to skip and forgo the advantages as too costly and not flexible enough.....
Simple problems may kill Autonomous cars, like 1 terrorist hacking 1000 cars and killing 3000 people will get it banned forever, or heck if I see a nice robo-car I may put on a mask and steal it as will most criminals (imagine a $200,000 piece of equipment dozens of miles from its owner, this is dream scenario for thieves). …..
Tony also exaggerates or skips the numbers, gasoline a year is $1500 so not much to save there and most cars have 5 year warranties so savings in maintenance aint a consumer problem mostly - -- and Tony downplays less range and hours of charging even if the half of people who rent apartments somehow can get access to chargers nightly or at least bi-weekly.... Steam cars in 1920 were far better except they took 30 minutes of warming up each morning and time matters even if all the other measures are higher for steam.... Tony does like himself : )
Will the first autonomous bike be www.podbike.com?
This has not aged well. Most Autonomous experts nowadays are pretty skeptical it we will be level 5 anytime soon if ever.
th-cam.com/video/ImJiGAAOSq4/w-d-xo.html
You are a prophet